If You're Short Gold, Here's Where I Take Profit (and Why November Bounces) — Transcript

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1. 0:01Yesterday I told you someone was
2. 0:02absorbing the buyers under 4,150.
3. 0:06Today gold has fallen sharply and it's
4. 0:09trading around 4,60 on spot. The short
5. 0:13is in profit. Now the real question, how
6. 0:16far does this go and when does it turn?
7. 0:19I think the turn comes at the start of
8. 0:21November and here is the plan. Quick
9. 0:24recap of why we're here. The put heavy
10. 0:27level at 4,150
11. 0:29on the futures should have broken
12. 0:31easily. It didn't. Someone was feeding
13. 0:35sell positions into the hedggers and the
14. 0:37buyers. And once that absorption was
15. 0:40done, price fell through. Our core short
16. 0:43was open 4 days ago around 4,190
17. 0:47spot. Yesterday we added around 4,140.
18. 0:52All of it is in profit now. and I'm
19. 0:54going to start taking profit slowly. The
20. 0:57final take-profit zone is around 4,000
21. 1:00to 3,980
22. 1:03on spot. So, what's the plan from here?
23. 1:06It comes down to seasonality,
24. 1:08positioning, the macro headlines, the
25. 1:11stock market, and the next option wall.
26. 1:14Let me take them one by one. First,
27. 1:16seasonality. October is historically
28. 1:19gold's worst month. a long history of
29. 1:22volatile, often negative October with a
30. 1:25choppy shape and a pronounced bounce in
31. 1:27the middle. But late October is the
32. 1:30seasonal turning point. In bull market
33. 1:32years, both the metal and the miners
34. 1:35tend to rally between late October and
35. 1:37late February. Those winter rallies have
36. 1:40averaged roughly 9 12% gains driven by
37. 1:44Indian festival and wedding demand with
38. 1:46Diwali on November 8th this year. So
39. 1:49festive buying ramps up now. Plus
40. 1:52western holiday jewelry and new year
41. 1:54investment flows. One caveat,
42. 1:57seasonality is a tendency, not a timer.
43. 2:00Last year was the opposite of the
44. 2:02pattern. October 2025 was the strongest
45. 2:06month of that cycle, up over 10%. So I
46. 2:09expect the turning point and the bounce
47. 2:11around the move into November.
48. 2:14Second positioning. Before that bounce,
49. 2:17I need to see whether the big players
50. 2:19who were adding shorts take profit like
51. 2:21we do. If they do, fine. If they don't,
52. 2:26even better, because their shorts become
53. 2:28the fuel for a short squeeze. My read is
54. 2:31that they will get out soon. So, I'm
55. 2:33preparing for a rebound around the start
56. 2:35of November. Third, the headlines. Oil
57. 2:39and yields are rising, and soon enough
58. 2:42we'll see the usual attempts to control
59. 2:44yields and oil for the short term
60. 2:46through headlines, which may not even be
61. 2:48correct. On October 20th, the headline
62. 2:51came out that the US and Iran were
63. 2:54getting close to an agreement. Oil
64. 2:56spiked down around 6%. 30 minutes later,
65. 3:00Iran said there was no agreement at all.
66. 3:03So, be ready for headlines like that if
67. 3:05yields or oil keep rising. Fourth, the
68. 3:08stock market. The VIX is rising while
69. 3:11the Dow rises. That's rare, about 13 to
70. 3:1438 days per decade since 1995.
71. 3:17And the result is mixed. Over the next 5
72. 3:20days, the move was 2 to 2 1/2% and the
73. 3:24rise continued 54 to 68% of the time.
74. 3:28Why does that matter for gold? If the
75. 3:31rise continues, there is no crash soon,
76. 3:34which means no margin calls. And in a
77. 3:37margin call, gold is the first thing
78. 3:39traders sell. So if the probability
79. 3:42favors stocks holding up, the gold
80. 3:44bounce at the turn into November becomes
81. 3:47more likely. Fifth, the next option
82. 3:50wall. The next level where the hedggers
83. 3:53sit is around 4,000 on the futures,
84. 3:56about 3,980
85. 3:58on spot. It's heavily put loaded and a
86. 4:01put heavy level works differently
87. 4:03depending on which side price is above
88. 4:06you. It's only weak resistance which is
89. 4:09why 4,150
90. 4:11gave way. Below you in a calm market
91. 4:14where puts were sold for income and
92. 4:16dealers are long. A drop into it slows
93. 4:19down or bounces. It acts as a cushion.
94. 4:23That's why 4,000 to 3,980
95. 4:26is where I take the final profit and get
96. 4:28ready for the other side. So, the plan
97. 4:32scale out of the shorts slowly from
98. 4:33here. Final target 4,000 to 3,980 spot.
99. 4:39Watch whether the big shorts cover.
100. 4:41Expect headline shocks on oil and
101. 4:44yields. Stocks holding up removes the
102. 4:46margin call risk for gold. And the put
103. 4:49wall at 4,000 is the cushion where the
104. 4:52November bounce can start. Are you
105. 4:54taking profit on gold here or holding
106. 4:57for 4,000? Tell me in the comments. I'll
107. 5:00keep updating this as it develops. This
108. 5:03is my own analysis and not financial
109. 5:05advice. Trade your own plan, manage your
110. 5:08risk, and I'll see you in the next one.