If I Had To Make $500/week Betting NBA, I’d Do This — Transcript

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1. 0:00If I were to try to make $500 a week
2. 0:02just betting on the NBA, I'd probably
3. 0:04skip 80% of the games. And that sounds
4. 0:08completely backwards because the NBA
5. 0:09gives you games almost every night.
6. 0:12Player props everywhere, money lines,
7. 0:14totals, parlays. There are hundreds of
8. 0:17ways to put money down every single
9. 0:19week. But that's exactly the problem. If
10. 0:21I needed to average $500 a week, I
11. 0:23wouldn't need more opportunities. Need
12. 0:25to get really good at eliminating bad
13. 0:27ones. So I'd want to know three things.
14. 0:29Which players are actually worth
15. 0:31researching, how low I should move their
16. 0:32points requirement, and what kind of
17. 0:34bankroll I'd need before a $500 weekly
18. 0:37target even makes sense. Because there's
19. 0:39a massive difference between trying to
20. 0:40make $500 and forcing yourself to make
21. 0:43$500. And that difference might
22. 0:45determine whether this strategy
23. 0:46survives. So let's start with why I like
24. 0:48researching player markets. If I'm
25. 0:50trying to predict an NBA winner, I have
26. 0:52to consider everything. How well both
27. 0:54teams are shooting, whether the bench
28. 0:55shows up, foul trouble, coaching
29. 0:57decisions, injuries, rest, and whether
30. 1:00somebody decides to shoot 40% from three
31. 1:02that night. There's a lot going on. But
32. 1:03when I'm researching an individual
33. 1:05player, I can narrow my focus. Instead
34. 1:07of asking, will the Lakers win? I can
35. 1:09ask, how many points should their
36. 1:11primary scorer realistically produce
37. 1:12tonight? Now I have a more specific
38. 1:14question I can research. But just
39. 1:16knowing a player's expected scoring
40. 1:17average isn't enough. So I want to start
41. 1:19with his role. I don't need an NBA
42. 1:21superstar to have an amazing game. I
43. 1:22need him to have a normal one. That's
44. 1:24the whole concept. If a player averages,
45. 1:27let's say, 27 points per game, why do I
46. 1:29necessarily need him to score 28
47. 1:32tonight? Maybe I don't. Maybe the better
48. 1:34question is, how likely is he to score
49. 1:3520 or maybe 15? And what price is the
50. 1:38sports book charging for that lower
51. 1:40number? That is where I would start
52. 1:41looking. The market that I'm talking
53. 1:42about is NBA alternate player points.
54. 1:45Let's say a player's normal point line
55. 1:47is 26 and a half. The sports book wants
56. 1:49me to predict pretty much if he's going
57. 1:51to score 27 or more. But instead of
58. 1:53playing that normal line, I look at the
59. 1:55alternate markets, which would be 25
60. 1:58plus, 20 plus, 15 plus, maybe even 10
61. 2:02plus in some scenarios. Now, I'm not
62. 2:04asking for the same performance. As I
63. 2:06lower the threshold, the probability of
64. 2:07reaching it generally increases, but the
65. 2:09odds get more expensive, and that's the
66. 2:11trade-off we have to figure out. The NBA
67. 2:13player most likely to score 20 points
68. 2:15isn't necessarily the best player to bet
69. 2:16on for 20 points. Think about that.
70. 2:19Maybe player A averages 30 points per
71. 2:22game, and the sports book wants minus
72. 2:241,000 for him to go over 20 plus. Player
73. 2:28B averages 25 points per game, but his
74. 2:31alternate line of 20 plus is only minus
75. 2:34250. Which one is better? You can't
76. 2:36answer that just from the player's
77. 2:37averages. You need to estimate how often
78. 2:39each outcome should actually happen, and
79. 2:41then compare it against the price. The
80. 2:43first thing I want to look at here is
81. 2:44going to be scoring consistency, not
82. 2:47just points per game. How often does the
83. 2:49player actually clear the exact
84. 2:51alternate line that I'm considering?
85. 2:53Let's say he averages 25 points, but
86. 2:55here are his last 10 games. Let's say he
87. 2:57went 20, 22, 22, 24, 25, 30, 32, 31, 29,
88. 3:04and 30. The average looks pretty good,
89. 3:06but if I want 25 plus points, he's only
90. 3:08cleared that in six of those 10 games.
91. 3:10Now, compare that to 15 plus. He's
92. 3:12cleared 15 in every one of them. Very
93. 3:15different historical hit rates, but 10
94. 3:17games alone still isn't enough to
95. 3:19establish the true probability. So, I
96. 3:21also want the full season minutes, role,
97. 3:23injuries, and match-up. A player's
98. 3:25scoring average can make a terrible
99. 3:27problem look amazing. A guy can average
100. 3:2825 points, but maybe he scores 40 one
101. 3:31night and 12 the next. That average
102. 3:33doesn't tell me how consistently he
103. 3:35reaches a specific number. So, I'm not
104. 3:36looking for players who score a lot. I'm
105. 3:39looking for players whose scoring
106. 3:40distribution supports the lower
107. 3:42threshold. Now, let's get to number two,
108. 3:44minutes and usage. Now, here's the part
109. 3:46I think is even more important than
110. 3:48points per game, minutes and usage,
111. 3:50because points don't just magically
112. 3:51appear. Players need opportunities.
113. 3:53Let's say one player averages 24 points,
114. 3:55but he's recently been playing only 28
115. 3:57minutes. Another averages 23, but
116. 3:59consistently plays 36 minutes and
117. 4:01handles a huge share of his team's
118. 4:03offense. Those are different situations.
119. 4:05I want to know, is he starting? How many
120. 4:07minutes is he expected to play? What's
121. 4:08his usage rate? How many field goals
122. 4:10does he attempt? How often does he get
123. 4:12to the free throw line? Are there
124. 4:14teammates who might take shots away from
125. 4:16him? Because the biggest threat to an
126. 4:17NBA scoring prop isn't always bad
127. 4:19shooting. Sometimes it's losing 6
128. 4:21minutes of playing time. Imagine a
129. 4:22player normally scores 25 points in 36
130. 4:24minutes, but tonight he only plays 25
131. 4:26minutes. Maybe he gets into foul
132. 4:28trouble. Maybe it's a blowout. Maybe
133. 4:30he's on a minutes restriction. Suddenly
134. 4:31that 20 plus alternate line isn't nearly
135. 4:34as comfortable. So, before I even care
136. 4:35about the opponent, I want confidence in
137. 4:37the player's role. So, the requirement
138. 4:39for that is they need to at least play
139. 4:4130 minutes per game and have a usage
140. 4:44rate of at least 24%
141. 4:47or more. That's a requirement for a
142. 4:50alternate player prop for just points.
143. 4:52Now, let's get to number three, which is
144. 4:53going to be the defense. How many points
145. 4:55does the opposing team allow? But even
146. 4:57more importantly, how do they defend the
147. 4:59specific type of player? Do they allow a
148. 5:01lot of three-point attempts? Do they
149. 5:03protect the paint? Do they send double
150. 5:04teams at primary scorers? Are they
151. 5:07vulnerable to guards attacking the
152. 5:08basket? How fast do they play? Because I
153. 5:11can have a player averaging 28 points,
154. 5:12but if he's facing a slow team that
155. 5:14traps him every possession, that changes
156. 5:16the projection. The worst defense in the
157. 5:18NBA isn't automatically the best matchup
158. 5:20for your player. Here's why. Maybe the
159. 5:22defense allows a ton of points overall,
160. 5:24but it's excellent against exact
161. 5:25position or scoring style that I'm
162. 5:27researching. Or maybe the player gets
163. 5:29most of his scoring at the rim, and the
164. 5:30opponent has elite rim protection. So,
165. 5:32I'm not just looking at generic
166. 5:34defensive rankings. I'm asking, does
167. 5:36this matchup support the way this player
168. 5:38actually scores? That's the kind of
169. 5:40research that matters. So, what you're
170. 5:41looking for is defense versus the
171. 5:44position that your player that you have
172. 5:47written down is playing. They need to be
173. 5:49bottom 10 in the league at allowing
174. 5:52points to the position of your player
175. 5:55that you have for your player prop.
176. 5:56Let's say it's a point guard for
177. 5:57example. Point guard position, the team
178. 5:59you're looking at needs to be bottom 10
179. 6:02in allowing points to the point guard
180. 6:04position, not just overall. Not just a
181. 6:06bad defense overall. They need to be bad
182. 6:08against that certain position that that
183. 6:10player is playing. Now, let's go ahead
184. 6:12and get to number four here. Number four
185. 6:13is going to be game environment. Now,
186. 6:16here's something that people overlook,
187. 6:18the game itself. Let's say my player has
188. 6:20played 20 points in nine of his last 10,
189. 6:22which looks great, but his team is
190. 6:24favored by 18 points tonight. Now, what
191. 6:26happens if they're winning by 30 in the
192. 6:27third quarter? He might sit the entire
193. 6:29fourth, and there goes my alternate
194. 6:31points play. So, I need to think about
195. 6:33the game total, projected pace, the
196. 6:35spread, the blowout risk, rest, the
197. 6:38back-to-backs, injuries, and how
198. 6:40competitive the game is expected to be.
199. 6:42A blowout can destroy a player prop even
200. 6:44when your player is having a great game.
201. 6:45Imagine he has 18 points midway through
202. 6:47the third quarter. He's shooting great,
203. 6:48everything looks perfect, but his team
204. 6:50goes up 30. He never checks back in.
205. 6:52That's why I don't just research the
206. 6:54player, I research the environment he's
207. 6:55playing in. But even after all those
208. 6:57filters, I still haven't decided whether
209. 6:59I want the bet. And this is where the
210. 7:00most important step comes in. So, for
211. 7:02game environment, you have to be careful
212. 7:04of the blowout factor and also a slow
213. 7:08pace game. So, I would suggest any games
214. 7:11that are minus 14 or higher for the
215. 7:14player that you have down for the team
216. 7:15that they're going against, you would
217. 7:17skip that. And any game that has a total
218. 7:19of 215 or lower, you would skip that as
219. 7:22well. Cuz you don't want a slow pace
220. 7:23game and you don't want a chance for it
221. 7:25to be a blowout and the player sits in
222. 7:27the third quarter or player sits in the
223. 7:28fourth quarter. Now, let's get to the
224. 7:29numbers that really matter. Let's say
225. 7:31after researching everything, I estimate
226. 7:32that a player has an 84% probability to
227. 7:36score 20 plus. This is great, but here's
228. 7:39the problem. 84% doesn't tell me if it's
229. 7:41a good bet. I still need to know the
230. 7:42sports book's price. Let's say the
231. 7:44alternate points line is minus 300. That
232. 7:47implies a 75% probability. If my
233. 7:51estimate is 84%, we're good here because
234. 7:54that's a plus 9% probability gap. But
235. 7:57now let's say the sports book is
236. 7:59charging minus 600. That's a completely
237. 8:01different role here because now our true
238. 8:04probability is 84% but our implied
239. 8:06probability would be 85% which would
240. 8:09give a negative 1% probability gap which
241. 8:12is no good. So the odds are the most
242. 8:14important thing of what you can get the
243. 8:16number at. It's not always is this play
244. 8:18have a high probability of winning, it's
245. 8:20does this play have a high probability
246. 8:22of winning versus the price that the
247. 8:23sports book's giving me. If it does,
248. 8:25then you're good. You're you're green
249. 8:27lighted if you're in the plus section
250. 8:28here and you have a plus probability
251. 8:30gap. You're red lighted if it's
252. 8:32negative. Negative even 1%, you get rid
253. 8:34of that. Now let's run through a live
254. 8:36example so I can show you guys how this
255. 8:37works. Let's take a look at Luka. He was
256. 8:40facing Golden State Warriors. They were
257. 8:42dead last last season at guarding the
258. 8:45point guard position, okay? Last in
259. 8:47points per game. They allowed 28 points
260. 8:50per game to opposing point guards. Now
261. 8:53his minus 110 number was 34 and a half
262. 8:56which gave us an implied probability of
263. 8:58about 52%. His true probability of that
264. 9:01hitting though was 47% which gave a
265. 9:03negative 5% edge. So it was no good. But
266. 9:06when we took it down to 25 plus, he had
267. 9:09an implied probability of 80% but a true
268. 9:12probability of 86% which gave a plus 6%
269. 9:16edge. So we had the match up, we had
270. 9:18everything that lined up, but we had to
271. 9:19pick our spots here. 34 and a half was
272. 9:21not going to do it. 25 plus was their
273. 9:23sweet spot where you actually found a
274. 9:25plus 6% probability gap. And let alone,
275. 9:28guess how many points he ended up
276. 9:29having? He ended up having 28 points. So
277. 9:32he covers the 25 plus but doesn't cover
278. 9:34this number up here. Now you would never
279. 9:36know this unless you did these
280. 9:38percentages and knew you had the edge
281. 9:40out or whatnot. You would have just took
282. 9:41this number right here and just said,
283. 9:43"Oh, I'll just roll with that." And
284. 9:44guess what? You would have lost. That's
285. 9:46why it's so important to know exactly
286. 9:48what number you want and what number
287. 9:49gives you an edge. So, now we've
288. 9:51identified the strategy, but we haven't
289. 9:53answered the money question. How I
290. 9:54actually try to make $500 per week?
291. 9:56First, I'd need a realistic bankroll.
292. 9:58Let's use a hypothetical $10,000
293. 10:00bankroll here. At 1% for a standard unit
294. 10:03size here, we'd be playing what? A $100
295. 10:06per play. So, a $500 week would equal
296. 10:09plus five units. But, here's where
297. 10:11people get themselves into trouble. They
298. 10:13think, "Okay, five units. I just need
299. 10:14five winners." No, that's not how it
300. 10:17works. If I risk one unit at minus
301. 10:20300, a win earns 1/3 of a unit. A loss
302. 10:23costs an entire unit. So, three winners
303. 10:25at minus 300 earn plus one unit. One
304. 10:28loss costs one unit. Now, you're back to
305. 10:30zero. You can win 75% of your NBA bets
306. 10:33at minus 300 and make absolutely
307. 10:34nothing. That's the math. At minus 300,
308. 10:36the break-even rate is 75%. So, if
309. 10:39you're winning exactly 75%, you're
310. 10:41breaking even before any additional
311. 10:42costs. And if you're winning less than
312. 10:4475%, then you're losing. That's why I
313. 10:46can't tell you, "Just find five
314. 10:48high-probability bets and make $500."
315. 10:50The actual price matters. And this is
316. 10:52why estimating the probability gap
317. 10:53correctly is so important. Let's use a
318. 10:55hypothetical week. Suppose I had 15
319. 10:58qualified NBA alternate point
320. 11:00opportunities. For simplicity, let's say
321. 11:02that they're all priced at minus 300. 15
322. 11:05plays at minus 300. I used $100 on each
323. 11:09play that I did. So, my unit size was
324. 11:11100 bucks. Now, imagine I finish with 13
325. 11:14wins and two losses. Remember, we're at
326. 11:17minus 300 on average here. Each win
327. 11:19earns approximately $33.33.
328. 11:2313 winners would earn around $400
329. 11:2633 cents. The two losses now cost me 200
330. 11:31bucks. So, I'd finish around plus 233 33
331. 11:36cents. Not $500. Even even though I won
332. 11:38almost 87% of my plays, that's a really
333. 11:41strong winning week. But, now you see
334. 11:43why I can't promise a weekly income just
335. 11:45because I'm finding high probability
336. 11:47positions. Cuz you could win 13 out of
337. 11:4915 bets and still not make 500 bucks.
338. 11:51That surprises people because they see
339. 11:53an 87% win rate and assume the money
340. 11:55must be incredible. But, profitability
341. 11:57depends on your prices and sizing. If I
342. 11:59tried to force the same week to produce
343. 12:01$500, I'd have to increase my risk, find
344. 12:04more qualified opportunities, or change
345. 12:05the kind of prices that I'm taking. It's
346. 12:07pretty much as simple as this. If we
347. 12:09just change the $100 unit size to 200,
348. 12:12we would double this and we'd end up
349. 12:13with plus 466 66, which is what? A lot
350. 12:17closer to the $500 threshold there. So,
351. 12:19all you had to do is go from 1% to 2% to
352. 12:22make that happen with the same exact
353. 12:23results. But, I would never chase the
354. 12:25$500 goal because let's say it's
355. 12:26Thursday, I've been following the
356. 12:28strategy perfectly, but I'm down 200
357. 12:29bucks. Now, somebody trying to force 500
358. 12:31says, "Okay, I need to make 700 over the
359. 12:33next 3 days." And this is where
360. 12:35everything goes wrong. They start taking
361. 12:37worse plays, increase unit sizes, adding
362. 12:39legs to parlays, trying to get their
363. 12:41money back. The NBA doesn't know you're
364. 12:42down 200, so why should the next bet be
365. 12:45bigger? Think about that. Nothing about
366. 12:47tomorrow's player points probability
367. 12:48changed because you lost yesterday. So,
368. 12:50why would your unit size suddenly
369. 12:52change? I wouldn't let a weekly target
370. 12:54dictate my risk, and I wouldn't force
371. 12:55bets just because it's Friday and I'm
372. 12:57behind. Because sometimes the best thing
373. 12:59you could do is accept that you're
374. 13:00having a losing week. And guess what?
375. 13:02You move on. So, the suggested unit size
376. 13:04for this to be able to come true and for
377. 13:06you to be able to hit a high rate would
378. 13:08be $250 per unit, which means per bet,
379. 13:12hitting at 85% or more. As long as you
380. 13:15could solve the puzzle here with the
381. 13:17strategy that I just showed you and be
382. 13:19able to hit 85% or more. If you're
383. 13:21playing probability plays that are
384. 13:23higher like the Luka Dončić one that I
385. 13:24showed you had 86%. You play those,
386. 13:27you're going to hit 86% of the time. You
387. 13:29play 86 to 90%, you're going to win 90%
388. 13:31of the time. So, you just correlate your
389. 13:33unit size with that, and that would
390. 13:35produce your $500 a week goal. And you
391. 13:39wouldn't have to do any more or any
392. 13:41less. You would just have to do what I
393. 13:42just showed you literally in this video.
394. 13:44Now, if you want to manually do the
395. 13:45research that I showed you in this
396. 13:46video, that's completely fine. It's
397. 13:48probably going to take you anywhere from
398. 13:50an hour to 2 hours to be able to come up
399. 13:52with a certain play that's going to be
400. 13:53able to fit the criteria that I showed
401. 13:55you. But, that's why I created the Line
402. 13:56Maker AI, and that's what it could help
403. 13:57you do. You can give it a prompt like,
404. 13:59"Scan today's NBA alternate player
405. 14:01points markets, find high probability
406. 14:02opportunities with positive probability
407. 14:04gaps, include each player's recent
408. 14:06scoring results, season scoring
409. 14:08distribution, minutes, usage rate, field
410. 14:11goal attempts, injuries, match up,
411. 14:13opponent defensive tendencies, game
412. 14:14environment, available alternate point
413. 14:16thresholds, current odds, implied
414. 14:18probability, estimated true probability,
415. 14:20and the probability gap. Rank the
416. 14:22strongest opportunities and explain the
417. 14:24risk." Then, instead of spending hours
418. 14:25pulling everything together manually,
419. 14:27you could have the research organized
420. 14:29much faster within seconds. But,
421. 14:30remember, the Line Maker AI isn't a
422. 14:32magic button that guarantees winners.
423. 14:34You still have to look at the price, you
424. 14:36still have to manage the bankroll, and
425. 14:37you still have to accept that even high
426. 14:39probability plays can lose. So, if I
427. 14:41wanted to try to make $500 a week on the
428. 14:43NBA, I wouldn't spend my time
429. 14:45researching for players who are about to
430. 14:46score 40 points. I look for consistent
431. 14:49players at lower thresholds, where I
432. 14:51believe the sports book is charging less
433. 14:52than the actual probability is worth.
434. 14:54Because isn't to predict the biggest
435. 14:56performance. It's to find the biggest
436. 14:58discrepancy between probability and
437. 15:00price. As always, I'm Frank Line Maker
438. 15:02Sports. I'll see you guys in the next
439. 15:03video. Till then, I'm out.