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If I Had to Make $500 by Tomorrow, I’d Use This Trading Strategy — Transcript

by Jesse Rogers | Casper Trading · 2,440 words · 332 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

Full transcript

  1. 0:00I have been trading for 10 years, but if
  2. 0:02I had to start over on day one and make
  3. 0:04$500 by tomorrow, this is the strategy
  4. 0:06that I would use. It has a 73% win rate,
  5. 0:10never lost more than three trades in a
  6. 0:12row, and finds a trade every single day.
  7. 0:16And I'm going to show you the long-term
  8. 0:17backtest for proof. It's not order flow,
  9. 0:20it's not ICT, and you don't need any
  10. 0:22trading experience to follow it, which
  11. 0:24means anyone can trade this strategy
  12. 0:27successfully. Now, the last time I found
  13. 0:29something this simple, I released the
  14. 0:30first candle rule, and this created a
  15. 0:33wave of profitable traders. But this
  16. 0:35time, we're going to do things a little
  17. 0:37differently, because not only will I
  18. 0:39teach you all three steps over multiple
  19. 0:41chart examples, but I'm also going to
  20. 0:43give you a free indicator that marks
  21. 0:45your entry, stop loss, and your target
  22. 0:48right on your chart for you. So that
  23. 0:50way, whenever you finish this video and
  24. 0:52you go to trade, you actually have a
  25. 0:54tool that tells you whether or not the
  26. 0:56execution is valid. Now, this strategy
  27. 0:58is fully mechanical, which means that
  28. 1:00you have clear rules for getting in,
  29. 1:02taking profit, and knowing when you're
  30. 1:04done for the day. And once you see how
  31. 1:06simple this system is, you will never
  32. 1:08look at trading the same way again. Now,
  33. 1:10let's take a look at the results so you
  34. 1:12can see how it performed yourself. Here
  35. 1:14is the full year from September 2025 all
  36. 1:17the way to date in September 2026. A
  37. 1:20total of 384 trades, 73% win rate, and
  38. 1:24just over $49,000
  39. 1:26in net profit only trading one NQ
  40. 1:29contract, which only takes about $1,000
  41. 1:32of margin, or you can trade on a prop
  42. 1:34firm that costs as little as $50. But
  43. 1:37what I want you to notice goes far
  44. 1:38beyond the win rate and the profits.
  45. 1:40Now, the average trade lasted about 9
  46. 1:43minutes from entry to exit, and the
  47. 1:45longest losing streak in the test was
  48. 1:46only three trades in a row, and a setup
  49. 1:49appeared every single one of the 258
  50. 1:52sessions that were tested. I mean, like
  51. 1:54in all of my 10 years of trading, I have
  52. 1:56literally never seen something as
  53. 1:58simple, yet powerful, as the
  54. 2:00step-by-step system that you're about to
  55. 2:01learn. And even though it's fully
  56. 2:03mechanical and easy to spot, I wanted to
  57. 2:05make this absolutely foolproof. So, I
  58. 2:07made a free indicator that will
  59. 2:09literally paint the trade entries on
  60. 2:11your screen. That way there is no room
  61. 2:13for guessing. So, if you want to get
  62. 2:14access to that indicator, along with
  63. 2:16every single one of the trades in this
  64. 2:18back test, that way you can see the
  65. 2:20proof for yourself, I will leave a link
  66. 2:22to my free trading community. Inside is
  67. 2:24where I will post the indicator and the
  68. 2:26back test results. Now, let's get into
  69. 2:27some chart examples. But, before we
  70. 2:29start, I want to walk you through the
  71. 2:31three mechanical steps to this strategy.
  72. 2:33Step number one is we're going to mark
  73. 2:35our breakout levels. Step number two is
  74. 2:38we're going to wait for a confirmed
  75. 2:39breakout. Step number three is we're
  76. 2:42going to manage the trade and know when
  77. 2:44you take one trade or two. Because on
  78. 2:47some days, this strategy will give you
  79. 2:48two trades. So, I want to show you how
  80. 2:50to know when you're just going to take
  81. 2:51one or on days that you're going to find
  82. 2:53multiple trades. So, let's go ahead and
  83. 2:55get started with example number one. All
  84. 2:57right, so let's start with a recent
  85. 2:59example on September 21st, and we are on
  86. 3:02NASDAQ, and this is the asset you want
  87. 3:05to use for this strategy. So, the ticker
  88. 3:07is going to be NQ. Make sure you only
  89. 3:09use the strategy on NASDAQ. And we're
  90. 3:12going to make sure we're on the 5-minute
  91. 3:14chart, and you're going to stay on the
  92. 3:15same time frame for the entirety of this
  93. 3:17strategy. Next, we're going to wait for
  94. 3:19this 9:30 candle to close. Then, what we
  95. 3:22want to do is head over here to our
  96. 3:24indicator and make sure we have the SSM
  97. 3:27indicator on. SSM stands for the short
  98. 3:30session method, which is the name of the
  99. 3:31strategy. And as you can see, it's going
  100. 3:33to paint out the high and the low of
  101. 3:35this candle. You may have seen some
  102. 3:37similar strategies with first candles,
  103. 3:39but here is where this one takes a
  104. 3:40twist. Notice the yellow line inside
  105. 3:43this candle. What that's showing you is
  106. 3:45the session VWAP, or volume weighted
  107. 3:49average price. And this is what makes
  108. 3:50this strategy so consistent and
  109. 3:52different from other first candle
  110. 3:54strategies. Now this is simple but
  111. 3:56important and if you mess this up then
  112. 3:57the whole strategy won't work. So notice
  113. 3:59right here where that line is. It's
  114. 4:01inside that candle. If you just use VWAP
  115. 4:04from TradingView, you'll notice that the
  116. 4:06level is way down here. So we can't have
  117. 4:08that kind of discrepancy if we want to
  118. 4:10trade this consistently. Now the reason
  119. 4:12for this is this is showing VWAP over
  120. 4:14time and the line in ours is showing us
  121. 4:16the session VWAP. So it's very important
  122. 4:19you use the correct one. Now these two
  123. 4:21levels are the only levels we're going
  124. 4:22to use for our breakout levels in this
  125. 4:24strategy. Now you may be wondering, okay
  126. 4:26cool, these levels are great but where
  127. 4:28do I actually execute a trade? So now
  128. 4:29let's get right into step number two
  129. 4:31which is confirming our breakout. And
  130. 4:33this is what this makes this system so
  131. 4:34game-changing and makes it so literally
  132. 4:36anyone can use it. Now the entry is
  133. 4:38fully mechanical and the indicator is
  134. 4:41literally going to tell you when it's
  135. 4:42valid. Now to confirm our breakout, all
  136. 4:44you need to do is wait for the market to
  137. 4:46trade to one of these levels. Now to be
  138. 4:49clear, a wick through the line doesn't
  139. 4:51count and closing exactly on the line
  140. 4:53doesn't count either. But if you get a
  141. 4:55five-minute level closing through the
  142. 4:57level and VWAP is on your side, that is
  143. 5:01a valid trade. Another thing I want to
  144. 5:02point out is notice how we are above
  145. 5:04VWAP with the candle close. This is very
  146. 5:06important as well. So getting a
  147. 5:08five-minute close through either level
  148. 5:10and VWAP being on your side, that is a
  149. 5:12valid breakout. As you can see here, the
  150. 5:14indicator will literally tell you when
  151. 5:16the trade is confirmed. That way you're
  152. 5:18never guessing. In this example and in
  153. 5:20most trades with this strategy, you get
  154. 5:22an entry just 10 minutes into the
  155. 5:24session on that very next candle. And
  156. 5:26this makes this system so predictable
  157. 5:28because you know that your trading will
  158. 5:29be done in just a few minutes on most
  159. 5:31days. Some days you don't get an entry
  160. 5:33on this very next candle and that's
  161. 5:35okay. As long as the five-minute candle
  162. 5:37closes through one of the breakout
  163. 5:38levels and VWAP is on your side, then it
  164. 5:40is a valid trade. Okay, so now that
  165. 5:42we've got a breakout, but where do we
  166. 5:44actually set our target and our stop
  167. 5:45loss? And here is where this strategy is
  168. 5:47different than anything you've ever
  169. 5:49seen. All right, so now on to step
  170. 5:51number three, which is how we manage the
  171. 5:53trade. As soon as the candle closes, you
  172. 5:55enter the trade. And the stop loss is
  173. 5:57going to go right at the base of the
  174. 6:00candle that broke through the level.
  175. 6:02Now, here is how the target works. In
  176. 6:04the past, you usually see these
  177. 6:05strategies with a fixed two to one risk
  178. 6:07to reward. But, whenever I tested this
  179. 6:09strategy, what I discovered told a
  180. 6:11different story. Because for this
  181. 6:13strategy, you don't need a three to one.
  182. 6:15You don't need a two to one. You don't
  183. 6:16even need a one to one. In fact, our
  184. 6:19target is only going to be half the
  185. 6:20distance from our entry as our stop
  186. 6:22loss. So, to plot this out, you can go
  187. 6:24over here to the left on TradingView,
  188. 6:26click this button, and since we broke
  189. 6:27through the high, we're going to be
  190. 6:28entering a long position. So, you'd
  191. 6:31click right here, and then we know that
  192. 6:32we're going to enter right on the close
  193. 6:34of this candle, and then our stop loss
  194. 6:36is going to go right down here at the
  195. 6:38low, and our target is right here. So,
  196. 6:40it's only about a 0.5 return. To enter
  197. 6:43the trade, you go over here on
  198. 6:44TradingView and click the buy button.
  199. 6:46Then, we're going to select our take
  200. 6:48profit and our stop loss. So, now our
  201. 6:50trade set up and all of the work is
  202. 6:51done. We just let the market do the
  203. 6:53lifting for us. And as you can see, in
  204. 6:55the very next 5 minutes, the target is
  205. 6:57hit. And something that a lot of newer
  206. 6:58traders need to realize is that you
  207. 7:00don't have to catch huge trades in order
  208. 7:02to be profitable. As you've seen in the
  209. 7:04backtested results of this strategy. In
  210. 7:06fact, since these trades play out very
  211. 7:08quickly with little room for drawdown,
  212. 7:10it actually makes them optimal for
  213. 7:12trading prop firms. And the high win
  214. 7:14rate helps you avoid big losing streaks
  215. 7:16that kill most traders. Now, it really
  216. 7:18is that stupid simple. But, if you still
  217. 7:21feel like you might need a little
  218. 7:22guidance when trading this, I actually
  219. 7:24have a live trading room where you can
  220. 7:25join and trade alongside me. As a bonus,
  221. 7:28you get to have all of your trades
  222. 7:29reviewed to make sure you're taking them
  223. 7:31correctly, and you get to learn
  224. 7:32everything I know about trading and ask
  225. 7:34me any questions you like. If that
  226. 7:35sounds interesting to you, I will leave
  227. 7:37a link down in the description. Now,
  228. 7:38let's take a look at the second example,
  229. 7:40that way you understand what to do on a
  230. 7:42day that has two trades instead of just
  231. 7:44one. All right, so now let's take a look
  232. 7:46at September 25th, which is another
  233. 7:48recent example. That way you understand
  234. 7:50how to handle a two trade day. So, we're
  235. 7:52going to start out the day the same as
  236. 7:53any other day, simply following our
  237. 7:55three steps. We're going to let the
  238. 7:57indicator mark our high and low, and
  239. 7:59then we wait for the closed candle above
  240. 8:01VWAP to confirm our breakout, and the
  241. 8:03indicator paints all of our levels right
  242. 8:05here on the chart for us. And then we
  243. 8:07enter the trade and sit back and let the
  244. 8:09market do the heavy lifting for us. As
  245. 8:12you can see, we hit right into our
  246. 8:13target again in the next 5 minutes. But,
  247. 8:16what does it take in order for us to be
  248. 8:17able to get into another trade? Well,
  249. 8:19there are three simple rules we can
  250. 8:21follow. Number one, the first trade has
  251. 8:23to be fully closed out. Number two, you
  252. 8:26need a new 5-minute candle to close
  253. 8:28through the opposite level. So, in this
  254. 8:29example, we closed through the high, you
  255. 8:31would want another one to close through
  256. 8:32the low in order for it to be a valid
  257. 8:34trade. And the third rule is that
  258. 8:36another entry can happen regardless if
  259. 8:38the first trade was a winner or a loser.
  260. 8:41So, now we just wait for the market to
  261. 8:43possibly trade down into the low. Now,
  262. 8:45if the market just keeps trading higher,
  263. 8:47there's no trade for us. So, you got to
  264. 8:48be patient here and make sure you stick
  265. 8:50to the system. Now, as we can see, the
  266. 8:52market closes back into those first
  267. 8:555-minute range, and we're now under
  268. 8:57VWAP. So, the only thing it takes is a
  269. 8:58candle closer through this low. Now,
  270. 9:00right here, we did trade into the level,
  271. 9:02but we didn't quite get it. Now, as you
  272. 9:04can see, the indicator doesn't paint a
  273. 9:06signal for us to entry because we didn't
  274. 9:08get a candle closer through the low.
  275. 9:10But, on the very next candle, we did get
  276. 9:12a closer through the low. So, now we
  277. 9:13have another valid trade setup. So, then
  278. 9:16we enter the trade, painting out the
  279. 9:17exact stop loss and target that the
  280. 9:19indicator provides for us, and sit back
  281. 9:21and let the market do its thing. And as
  282. 9:23you can see, it hits right into the
  283. 9:25target on the very next candle. So, on
  284. 9:27this day, we finished up with over
  285. 9:29$1,000, and both trades were done within
  286. 9:3252 minutes from the open, and both of
  287. 9:34them took less than 10 minutes to play
  288. 9:36out. Hopefully, you're starting to
  289. 9:37realize just how simple trading really
  290. 9:39can be. I went ahead and put every rule
  291. 9:41and the indicator setup into this simple
  292. 9:43checklist. You can go ahead and grab it
  293. 9:45or screenshot it here. I'll put this in
  294. 9:47the free community along with the
  295. 9:48indicator and the backtest. So, there
  296. 9:50you have it, guys. This is the strategy
  297. 9:52I would use if I had to start over from
  298. 9:54scratch and make $500 by tomorrow. It is
  299. 9:57so simple that I believe anyone can use
  300. 9:59this strategy. Now, you've seen the
  301. 10:00backtest, you've watched the trades
  302. 10:02played out, and you've learned the three
  303. 10:03steps behind them. And whenever you open
  304. 10:05your own chart, you're going to have a
  305. 10:07tool marking the exact setup. That way
  306. 10:09you have clarity and confidence, and
  307. 10:11you're able to execute consistently. So,
  308. 10:13if you've been trying to become a
  309. 10:14profitable trader, but you haven't
  310. 10:16really known where to start or you felt
  311. 10:17overwhelmed, now you have something
  312. 10:19specific to work on. So, stay focused,
  313. 10:21give yourself a chance to learn this
  314. 10:23properly, put it into practice, and
  315. 10:24build from there. I believe that this
  316. 10:26system will be a game-changer for the
  317. 10:28space, simply because it is so clear
  318. 10:30that anyone can follow it. Just remember
  319. 10:33to stay consistent, and also remember
  320. 10:34that not every trade will be a winner. I
  321. 10:37believe in you, you can do this. I'm
  322. 10:38going to put two videos on your screen.
  323. 10:40One is if you're newer to trading, I
  324. 10:42have a full beginner's guide. Or if
  325. 10:44you're trying to learn a little bit more
  326. 10:45advanced strategies, you can jump into
  327. 10:47my 4-hour order flow course. Both are
  328. 10:49totally free here on YouTube. Make sure
  329. 10:51to subscribe to my channel because I
  330. 10:52post videos like this every single week,
  331. 10:54and I look forward to seeing you in the
  332. 10:55next one.

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