If I Had To Make $250/Week Betting Sports, I'd Do This — Transcript

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1. 0:00If I had to make $250 a week betting on
2. 0:02sports, here's exactly what I would do.
3. 0:04And the first thing might surprise you
4. 0:06because I would not try to make 250
5. 0:09every week. I know that sounds
6. 0:10completely backwards, but that's exactly
7. 0:12how most people screw this up. They wake
8. 0:14up Monday morning needing 250 bucks.
9. 0:16Then they lose 100 on Tuesday. Now they
10. 0:18need 350. By Friday, they're chasing
11. 0:20some ridiculous parlay trying to make
12. 0:22everything back. And suddenly their plan
13. 0:24to make an extra 250 bucks has them down
14. 0:26$1,000. So, if I actually wanted to make
15. 0:28this work, I'd do three things
16. 0:30differently. I'd start with a bankroll
17. 0:32that makes sense, I'd focus on one
18. 0:34specific type of bet, and I'd use a
19. 0:35simple calculation to determine which
20. 0:37ones are actually worth taking. Because
21. 0:39once you understand that last part,
22. 0:41you'll realize why some people can win
23. 0:4280% of their bets and still lose money.
24. 0:45Before I even open a sports book, I need
25. 0:47to know how much money I'm working with.
26. 0:48Because making $250 a week with a $1,000
27. 0:52bankroll is completely different from
28. 0:54doing it with a $10,000 bankroll. If I
29. 0:57have $1,000 and I want $250 every week,
30. 0:59that's a 25% return at this level.
31. 1:03That's ridiculously aggressive. And
32. 1:05trying to force that kind of return is a
33. 1:07great way to blow up an account. So,
34. 1:08let's use an example. Say I have a
35. 1:10$10,000 bankroll and I use a standard
36. 1:12unit of one. That's a $100 per play.
37. 1:15Now, my $250 goal becomes 2 and 12
38. 1:19units. That sounds a lot more manageable
39. 1:20as a target. But here's the catch. Just
40. 1:22because it's only 2 and 1/2 units
41. 1:24doesn't mean I'm going to make it every
42. 1:26week. If you need to make $250 every
43. 1:28week, sports betting probably shouldn't
44. 1:29be your paycheck because sports betting
45. 1:31doesn't pay a salary. Some weeks you're
46. 1:33up, some weeks you're down, some weeks
47. 1:35you don't find enough opportunities
48. 1:36worth taking. So, I'd treat $250 as a
49. 1:39long-term average I'd like to work
50. 1:40toward, not a bill that has to be paid
51. 1:42by Sunday. Now, let's talk about what
52. 1:44I'd actually bet. I wouldn't try to
53. 1:46predict every game's winner. I wouldn't
54. 1:47chase plus money parlays. And I wouldn't
55. 1:49try to predict which player is about to
56. 1:51have the best game of his life. I
57. 1:52focused more of my research on high
58. 1:54probability alternate player props. So
59. 1:57high probability alternate player props.
60. 2:00For example, an NBA player averaging 27
61. 2:02points, instead of asking him to score
62. 2:0430, maybe I just look at his 20 plus
63. 2:06scoring number. An NFL running back
64. 2:08averaging 75 rushing yards, instead of
65. 2:10asking him for 80, maybe I just look at
66. 2:12his 40 plus line. Or an NHL player
67. 2:14consistently recording three or four
68. 2:16shots on goal, instead of taking an
69. 2:18aggressive line, I might research a
70. 2:19lower threshold. But here's where people
71. 2:21misunderstand the strategy. I don't need
72. 2:23a player to have a great game. I need
73. 2:24them to have a normal game at a price
74. 2:26that makes sense. That's what I'm
75. 2:28researching. Players with consistent
76. 2:29roles, consistent opportunities, and
77. 2:31lower performance thresholds. But just
78. 2:33because I lower the number does not mean
79. 2:35I found a good bet. And that brings me
80. 2:36to the most important part. Let's say
81. 2:38I'm looking at an NBA player. He scored
82. 2:4020 plus points in nine of his last 10
83. 2:43games. Okay, 20 plus. Let's say 9 out of
84. 2:4510. That looks amazing. So, I open the
85. 2:47sports book and the odds are minus 500
86. 2:50for that. Now, most people immediately
87. 2:52think that looks pretty safe, but here's
88. 2:54what I want to know. How often should
89. 2:56this outcome actually happen? Because
90. 2:58minus 500 implies an approximate
91. 3:00percentage of about 3%. So, if my
92. 3:02research suggests the true probability
93. 3:04is 80%, then I'm paying too much. Even
94. 3:07though I think the player is likely to
95. 3:08score 20, if my research reasonably
96. 3:10supports a 90% estimate, now that price
97. 3:13would be what's more interesting to me
98. 3:15because in reality, these are the same
99. 3:17bets right here and right here, but
100. 3:20percentage- wise, they're actually not.
101. 3:22Where this right here would create a
102. 3:24negative 3% edge as if this right here
103. 3:28would create a plus 7 edge. So remember,
104. 3:31not all safe bets are actually created
105. 3:33equal because the sports books know this
106. 3:35player is likely to score 22. That's why
107. 3:37they're charging expensive odds. My job
108. 3:39isn't to find something everybody knows
109. 3:40is likely. My job is to figure out
110. 3:42whether the price is wrong. And that's
111. 3:43completely different way to look at
112. 3:45sports. Here's the actual calculation
113. 3:47that I would use. Let's say the sports
114. 3:48book is offering minus 300, which
115. 3:51implies a 75% chance. After researching
116. 3:54the player, his recent performance,
117. 3:56season results, minutes, matchup,
118. 3:59injuries, and how consistently he
119. 4:01reaches the threshold, I estimate the
120. 4:03actual probability closer to 85%. Now
121. 4:06watch this. 85% minus the 75% creates a
122. 4:09plus 10% probability gap. Now the
123. 4:12probability gap is the difference
124. 4:13between my estimated probability and the
125. 4:15probability implied by the sports book.
126. 4:17And that's the kind of discrepancy that
127. 4:19I'm looking for. But now imagine the
128. 4:20sports book changes the odds now to
129. 4:23minus 600. Now that implies an 85.7%.
130. 4:28My estimate is still 85%. But now I
131. 4:30don't want it anymore because now that
132. 4:32probability gap has shrunk from 10% down
133. 4:35to negative.7
134. 4:37and we never want a negative edge
135. 4:39because a negative edge longterm is
136. 4:41what's going to make you lose money and
137. 4:42drain your account slowly. The exact
138. 4:45same bet at -300 can be terrible if it
139. 4:48goes to -600. It's the same player, same
140. 4:50game, same prediction, but the price
141. 4:52changed. And that's why I don't blindly
142. 4:54just follow picks. I care more about the
143. 4:56relationship between the probability and
144. 4:58the price. But remember, my 85% is an
145. 5:00estimate, not a fact. If the research is
146. 5:03wrong, the edge might not exist. Now,
147. 5:04imagine I open the board and there are
148. 5:06100 different player props. I'm not
149. 5:08researching every single one manually. I
150. 5:10narrow it down. First, I'm looking for
151. 5:12players with stable roles. So, I'm
152. 5:14talking about players mostly that are
153. 5:17the star player for the team, something
154. 5:19that the offense is going to be running
155. 5:20through and that they're going to get a
156. 5:21lot of action and get the ball
157. 5:22consistently. Then I'm going to check
158. 5:24the last five, the last 10, and also the
159. 5:27last season averages because I need to
160. 5:30know the historical hit rates at the
161. 5:31alternate thresholds, expected minutes
162. 5:33or playing time, injuries, matchup, and
163. 5:36anything that could change their
164. 5:37workload. Then I compare the available
165. 5:39odds against my estimated probability.
166. 5:41The secret to finding better bets isn't
167. 5:43researching more games. It's eliminating
168. 5:44bad opportunities faster. Cuz if I
169. 5:47research 30 different props and only two
170. 5:49meet my standards, that's perfect. I
171. 5:50don't need 10 bets. I need good
172. 5:52opportunities and sometimes the best
173. 5:54number of bets for the day could be
174. 5:56zero. But this is one reason I created
175. 5:58the line maker AI. I could ask it to
176. 6:00scan the available markets, research the
177. 6:01statistics, compare the odds, and help
178. 6:03identify possible probability gaps
179. 6:05instead of manually opening 10 different
180. 6:07websites. I can get the research
181. 6:08organized much faster, but I still
182. 6:10verify the prices and make the final
183. 6:12decision. Now, let's go back to the
184. 6:14money. Remember, my hypothetical
185. 6:16bankroll we said was $10,000. My one
186. 6:19unit is $100 per bet. My weekly target
187. 6:23is $250 or two point units. Sounds
188. 6:27pretty simple, but let's do the math.
189. 6:28Say I place 10 bets at average odds of
190. 6:30-300. I'm risking $100 each time and
191. 6:33somehow I win 9 out of 10. That's a 90%
192. 6:35win rate. Each winner at that threshold
193. 6:38makes about $33.33.
194. 6:41Nine winners makes about 300 in profit.
195. 6:44One loss now takes away 100. So, my
196. 6:47weekly profit is about $200 and I won
197. 6:5090. So, you could win 90% of your bets
198. 6:52and still miss your $250 weekly goal.
199. 6:54That's why you can't just look at
200. 6:56winning percentage. You need the odds,
201. 6:58the unit size, and the actual return.
202. 7:00And if I'm estimating the true
203. 7:01probability 84% on a bunch of minus300
204. 7:03bets, a 90% week is better than my
205. 7:06expectation. That doesn't mean I should
206. 7:07start expecting 90% every week. It means
207. 7:09I happen to have a great week and I
208. 7:11still wouldn't change my strategy just
209. 7:13because I missed the $250 target. Now,
210. 7:15let's say it's Thursday. I've lost two
211. 7:17bets. So, now I'm down $200. And
212. 7:19somebody asks, "Frank, how are you going
213. 7:21to make your $250 this week?" Well, I'm
214. 7:23not going to suddenly risk $500 on
215. 7:25Friday because nothing about Friday's
216. 7:27games changed just because I lost on
217. 7:29Wednesday. The sports book doesn't know
218. 7:30you're down $200 this week. So, why
219. 7:32should your next bet be bigger? That's
220. 7:34the problem with chasing. Your next bet
221. 7:36doesn't care about your previous result.
222. 7:38So, if my unit is 100 bucks, it's still
223. 7:40$100, no matter what is going on. Unless
224. 7:43my predetermined bankroll rules say
225. 7:45otherwise, I'm not increasing it because
226. 7:47I'm frustrated. I'm not doubling it
227. 7:48because I need to get even. And I'm
228. 7:50definitely not throwing together a
229. 7:51random parlay because Sunday is coming.
230. 7:53That's how a small losing streak becomes
231. 7:54a disaster. Now, here's another reason I
232. 7:56focus on high probability plays. It's
233. 7:58not just the math, it's psychology.
234. 8:00Let's say I find a legitimate edge on
235. 8:02something with a 5% true probability.
236. 8:05That's completely valid. But even if my
237. 8:07estimate is perfect, I'm still going to
238. 8:09lose long-term 45% of the time. And that
239. 8:14part right there is what could be tough
240. 8:16because even though long-term I'm being
241. 8:18profitable here, if I'm losing 45% of
242. 8:21the time, you start questioning
243. 8:22everything. So, personally, I'd rather
244. 8:24focus on high probability opportunities
245. 8:25when the price still gives me a real
246. 8:27edge and I'm also experiencing winning
247. 8:30at a crazy clip. So, mentally, I'm not
248. 8:32thinking, "Oh, I actually lost." and
249. 8:34getting the feeling of losing. Because
250. 8:35when you get the feeling of winning more
251. 8:37than losing, mentally, it's way better
252. 8:39for you. But high probability isn't what
253. 8:41creates the edge. It's what can make the
254. 8:43edge easier to survive. Because if my
255. 8:45estimates are accurate, a higher
256. 8:46probability approach should generally
257. 8:48have fewer losing outcomes. That makes
258. 8:50it psychologically easier for me to stay
259. 8:52consistent, but I still need a favorable
260. 8:54price. And even an 85% bet is supposed
261. 8:56to lose sometimes. So I never treat high
262. 8:58probability like a guarantee. Now, let's
263. 9:00say I'm using that $10,000 bankroll that
264. 9:03we were discussing before. and I'm
265. 9:05making $100 bets. I would also set a
266. 9:07limit on how much money I can have
267. 9:08exposed at once. For example, my maximum
268. 9:10total risk should be about five a day.
269. 9:14That would be correlating here would be
270. 9:15about a $500 day. Okay, that's the max
271. 9:18that you want to have out there. Because
272. 9:20if I find eight bets on any given day,
273. 9:21that doesn't automatically mean that I
274. 9:23should risk $800. Especially if multiple
275. 9:25bets depend on the same game or player.
276. 9:28Five different bets can secretly be one
277. 9:30giant bet. They all depend on the same
278. 9:32thing. Imagine I've got three NFL props
279. 9:34from one offense. Then their starting
280. 9:36quarterback gets hurt. Suddenly, every
281. 9:38one of those props is in trouble. So, I
282. 9:39want to manage total exposure, not just
283. 9:42individual units. And when my bankroll
284. 9:44grows, my unit can grow gradually with
285. 9:46it. If it falls, my dollar risk should
286. 9:48come down according to my rules. But I
287. 9:50don't change the percentage because I'm
288. 9:51emotional. So, if I had to try to make
289. 9:53$250 a week betting on sports, here's
290. 9:55exactly how I would approach it. First,
291. 9:57I would establish a bankroll that's
292. 10:00large enough that the target isn't
293. 10:02forcing me to take ridiculous risks. So,
294. 10:04for example, bankroll needs to equal the
295. 10:07risk that you're putting in. And for
296. 10:08this example, we were using $10,000.
297. 10:11Number two, I'd risk around one of that
298. 10:13bankroll. That would be $100 on this
299. 10:16example. Third, I would focus just on
300. 10:18high probability alternate player props,
301. 10:21which would be like NBA points, NFL
302. 10:23receiving or rushing yards, NHL shots on
303. 10:26goal only when the role, matchup, and
304. 10:28historical data support the threshold.
305. 10:29Fourth, I'd calculate the probability
306. 10:32gap and always make sure that there is a
307. 10:35positive edge cuz if my estimated
308. 10:37probability is higher than what the odds
309. 10:38imply and I trust the research, now I
310. 10:40have something worth considering. So,
311. 10:42here's what I want you to remember.
312. 10:43Making $250 a week isn't the strategy.
313. 10:45It's a goal. The strategy is finding
314. 10:47situations where I believe the sports
315. 10:49book is pricing an outcome incorrectly.
316. 10:50Then risking a disciplined amount and
317. 10:52repeating that process consistently
318. 10:54because the fastest way to lose $250 is
319. 10:56making 250 the number you have to win.
320. 10:59Because now you're not making decisions
321. 11:00based on probability. You're making
322. 11:02decisions based on pressure. And
323. 11:04pressure is one of the worst reasons to
324. 11:05place a bet. And if you want to research
325. 11:07these opportunities yourself, that's
326. 11:08exactly why I built the linemaker AI.
327. 11:10You could ask it, "Scan today's sports
328. 11:12markets for high probability alternate
329. 11:14player props and positive probability
330. 11:16gaps. Focus on estimated probabilities
331. 11:18above 70%. Compare current odds with
332. 11:20estimated true probabilities and include
333. 11:23recent performance, season data,
334. 11:24injuries, ro matchup, and potential
335. 11:27risk. Only return opportunities
336. 11:29supported by the research. Then use that
337. 11:31research to evaluate the prices actually
338. 11:33available to you. But remember, the AI
339. 11:35doesn't guarantee winners. You still
340. 11:36have to manage the bankroll and you
341. 11:38still need to know when to pass. Because
342. 11:40if I were trying to make $250 a week, I
343. 11:42wouldn't spend every day obsessing over
344. 11:43250 bucks. I'd focus on consistently
345. 11:46finding good prices, controlling my
346. 11:48risk, and letting the long-term results
347. 11:49tell me whether the strategy is actually
348. 11:51working. Because chasing money makes you
349. 11:53emotional. Chasing a legitimate edge
350. 11:55gives you a process. As always, I'm
351. 11:57Frank Limemaker Sports. I'll see you
352. 11:58guys in the next video.