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Ice & Fire Show + We're Baaaaaaack! | Fantasy Football 2026 - Ep. 1941 — Transcript

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0:00Foot Clan, welcome to August. We are five days a week for the show. Drafts are right around the corner. And if you want to dominate your draft, get the Ultimate Draft Kit. Come on this ride with us. Be an Ultimate Foot Clan member. You can get every tool and resource that you need to win your draft at ultimatedraftkit.com.
0:20Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright.
0:42Welcome in.
0:50Oh, baby.
0:55Welcome to August.
0:57The Fantasy Footballers are here. Jason Moore, Mike, the Fantasy Hitman Wright. I'm Andy Holloway.
1:04And it's go time.
1:06Yes, sir.
1:06My kids, they're in school now.
1:08That's right. Get out of my life.
1:10You get rid of the kids, you bring the football in.
1:13Get out of my life.
1:16It is...
1:17Hey, dad's got drafts.
1:19Dad's got drafts.
1:22Welcome to August.
1:24Welcome back to the show.
1:27Monday, August 3rd, five days a week from here through the end of the season.
1:32We are thrilled to have you with us.
1:35We've got big announcements, we've got news, and we've got ice and fire on the show today.
1:41So we're kicking off August the right way.
1:43I'm already salivating in anticipation for the drop.
1:49And we are thrilled to have the Foot Clan back with us for another season of hopeful domination.
1:55This is the fun time of year.
1:56You build that draft strategy.
1:57You get ready to rumble.
1:59The draft kit, as Jason said at the top, it's available at ultimatedraftkit.com.
2:03It is better than ever.
2:05New features every year, including a mock draft tool this year.
2:10And so excited to have you with us.
2:12If you want to help the show out, if you've been with us a long time, there are a couple quick things you can do, completely free, that just helped the podcast in the month of August, which is a big month.
2:20Like, subscribe to the show on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, click that subscribe button.
2:26If you are a subscriber but you haven't been back to the show in a little while, Apple's like doing this new thing where they just turn off your automatic downloads.
2:34Yeah.
2:34And so if you're back in business, click that button that says turn on automatic downloads so you have-
2:39Do it.
2:40The new-
2:41What?
2:42What?
2:43Do it now.
2:44Don't let-
2:45So you have the new episodes.
2:46Don't let this big business corporation try and tell you what you want to listen to.
2:53Yeah.
2:53If you wanted downloads at one point in time and now they're saying you don't want them-
2:57They don't know you.
2:58Tell them what to do, Jay.
2:59Do it!
3:03Oh, man.
3:05Are you doing-
3:06Is that the LaBeouf?
3:07I don't think it is.
3:07I think that's like-
3:08I think it's a new thing.
3:09That's a new thing.
3:10I'm my own thing.
3:13And then we have a big announcement.
3:14Who?
3:17And I hope you're listening because this will be your only chance to listen to this announcement.
3:22The Listener League for 2026.
3:25The entries.
3:26You can send them in right now.
3:28One week only.
3:30This is the one time we announce it.
3:32We never talk about it again.
3:36Listenerleague at fantasyfootballers.com.
3:39But-
3:39But Andy-
3:40Yes, voice of public opinion.
3:43What does that mean?
3:44What do I submit?
3:45You are submitting your entry.
3:48It could be a video.
3:49It could be anything that you want to get our attention.
3:54It can't be anything you want.
3:55It can be anything.
3:56It can be.
3:57You can send anything you want.
3:58You're not-
3:59We know from years past that they have taken that literally.
4:02And that's okay.
4:03Well, I'm saying don't-
4:03If you send a wall of text-
4:05We don't read well.
4:06That's-
4:07Yeah.
4:08You know how long it takes to read?
4:09Yeah, we don't read a lot.
4:10But if you want to send us something to catch our eye, we will review the Listener League submissions.
4:18We will pick a number of lucky individuals to join us in the 2026 Listener League.
4:22Show us the personality because the Listener League is not the, oh, I'm so good at fantasy football.
4:30I could all beat you guys, I promise.
4:33We want a league that has fun people with fun interaction throughout the year.
4:39Yes, you're good at fantasy football.
4:41We know.
4:41We know.
4:42You listen.
4:42Yeah, you're listening to the show.
4:43But the Listener League is always about good vibes and good people.
4:47Yeah, I mean, this is where we met Brooks.
4:49This is where we met the biggest loser.
4:53What an idiot that guy is.
4:54But we met close people now that we obviously love and adore through the Listener League.
5:00It's a great time.
5:01It's a great league.
5:01Come play with us or try to.
5:03So I will say it one more time.
5:04Listener League at fantasyfootballers.com.
5:06That is where you send your Listener League entries.
5:08If you send them to our support people, they will delete your email.
5:12If you send me a DM and you say, hey, has anybody looked at it yet?
5:16I promise every single one of them gets looked at.
5:18That's one of the cool things.
5:20Yes.
5:20Our team, we review them.
5:22We see every entry and we will respond to every person in time.
5:27But it takes a while.
5:29So there you go.
5:31We'd love to play with you.
5:32Let's talk some news.
5:36News and notes from around the league.
5:40Don't you feel the energy, Mike?
5:41Don't you feel the energy right now?
5:42I do, man.
5:43I'm nervous.
5:44Yeah.
5:44Do it.
5:48Ricky Pearsall.
5:50There's the energy out of the building.
5:53Oh, man.
5:54Oh, is that the electrical substation?
5:56Oh, no.
5:57It's getting everybody.
6:00Yes and no.
6:02Ricky Pearsall placed on season-ending IR.
6:04It's coming for you.
6:06Mike Evans.
6:07Electro.
6:08PCL reconstruction surgery for Ricky Pearsall.
6:11Dude.
6:12Big time bummer.
6:17Pearsall, if you want to buy in anything to the substation, Pearsall was not an injury guy in college.
6:25He goes to San Francisco, immediately an injury guy.
6:30And getting shot guys.
6:32At first he got shot.
6:33Yes.
6:33That is fair.
6:34That wasn't the substation, was it?
6:37We will never know.
6:37It's a bad neighborhood around, you know, substations.
6:41Every player in the NFL has this story.
6:43And unfortunately, the story of Ricky Pearsall is one of injury now.
6:46That's the story for him.
6:47Whether he comes back from it.
6:48It's a bummer, man.
6:49I mean.
6:50This is a tough one to come back from.
6:51Like, I know you see a lot of ACL injuries and a PCL reconstruction is worse.
6:58And so he's already lost the beginning of his career, basically.
7:01Now he's got to, the team is going to move forward.
7:04Yes.
7:05They just have to.
7:05Yes.
7:06And then he's got to come back and somehow earn his way back on.
7:09I hope he can.
7:10I hope he does someday.
7:11But it's an uphill battle from here.
7:14One of the best ways to come back and be relevant at some point is when you have Mike
7:17Evans and Debo Samuel on your roster who are older and may move on at some point.
7:21But Debo Samuel was also added to the roster.
7:24One year deal.
7:25Ricky will be.
7:25Ricky's turning 26.
7:27Oh my gosh.
7:28Wow.
7:28So he will be 27.
7:31And like.
7:31Dynasty managers shed a tear.
7:33San Francisco has to do something.
7:35Would you trade him away for a third?
7:37Look how sad the Falcon is.
7:39Look how sad the Falcon is.
7:40No, I would not.
7:41He's so sad.
7:42Oh, the Niners fan.
7:43DeJuan Stribling also held out of practice.
7:45That would be the 49ers.
7:47They should.
7:47Up and coming wide receiver.
7:48Yeah.
7:49Hamstring.
7:49They should hold him out of the rest of all the practices.
7:53All players practice off.
7:54They can't get injured if they're not practicing.
7:56I mean, this is not the only injury.
7:58I mean, they have like a handful already.
8:00They're rookie defensive end.
8:01Not to bypass it.
8:03Debo Samuel was signed to a one year deal.
8:04Well, everything the team is saying that this was going to be something that happened regardless
8:08of the Pierce Law situation.
8:09He said they're going to use him in kick returns, punt returns, all over the field.
8:15Debo, if he's going to be successful again, this is a good place to try to do that where
8:19they know his strengths and weaknesses.
8:20They can use him in the offense.
8:22And there's a need because everybody's hurt all the time.
8:24Yeah.
8:24I think this is a good landing spot for him.
8:27And it's good for the Niners.
8:28I don't know that it's very fantasy relevant.
8:30I expect at this point he's going to be used a lot, you know, close to the line of scrimmage,
8:34special teams, that type of stuff.
8:36TBD.
8:36But obviously, I like Mike Evans.
8:39I'm very in on Mike Evans.
8:41You're holding your breath.
8:42I'm holding my breath.
8:43Because of electrical substation.
8:44Yeah.
8:44I mean, that hamstring is like beef jerky at this point.
8:47And, you know, it's just one wrong cut.
8:51And all of a sudden, you know, Debo's more needed.
8:54I think I initially have Debo ranked right now at wide receiver 44, which is probably
8:59higher than Mike has him.
9:00Probably higher than you have him.
9:02But that's not super relevant.
9:04Chris Olave, baby.
9:06Oh, get dashed for money.
9:08We got that drop for Chris Olave.
9:10Money, money, money, money, money, money.
9:14This is the opposite of the Ricky Pearsall story.
9:17This is an injury plagued.
9:19Yeah, we like this one.
9:20This terrifying future situation that has turned into a four-year, $132 million extension
9:25for Chris Olave.
9:27$90 million guaranteed.
9:30That's how the team feels about the injury risk.
9:32Yeah, they are bullish on Olave.
9:35I've always loved.
9:36I mean, we've always loved Olave since he came out.
9:38Which is, we just became scared.
9:39Yeah, I mean, you look like you are one head injury away from the career being over.
9:45But they are invested.
9:47They believe in him.
9:47He was awesome last year.
9:49I had someone be like, well, when's he played a full season?
9:51Last year, week 18, he took off, as all players should and all fantasy managers should.
9:57Yeah, I know.
9:58It was.
9:59He didn't take it off.
10:00Well, he had a blood clot.
10:01He sure did.
10:01He took it off for a blood clot.
10:03Okay.
10:04Mike, do we accept?
10:05What are you doing?
10:07I'm saying that he played without injury.
10:11He didn't take it off.
10:11He didn't get injured.
10:12His soft tissue issues, his concussion issues.
10:14He did get injured.
10:14He had a blood clot.
10:15Would you call that an injury?
10:16Yes.
10:17For real?
10:17Yes.
10:18Not a football-related injury.
10:20Just an injury.
10:20I guess I wouldn't call that an injury.
10:23I see Al shaking his head no.
10:24He wouldn't call that an injury.
10:25That's just a medical condition.
10:27Yeah.
10:28Would you call diabetes an injury if you had low blood sugar or something and you're like,
10:32I can't play?
10:33I don't know.
10:33Regardless.
10:34That's a fair point.
10:35Regardless.
10:35For a medical reason, taking the day off.
10:38Okay.
10:39That's a fair count.
10:41Okay.
10:41I counterpoint.
10:42Okay.
10:42If someone's like, I can't go to work today because I'm having severe issues with my diabetes,
10:48would you say, oh, you're taking the day off?
10:53Yes.
10:54Okay.
10:54Out with illness.
10:55The point here for the fact that they are all in on Olave.
10:59They paid the money because he had such a successful season and really his career when he's been on the field has been awesome.
11:05Jordan Tyson, also very healthy.
11:07We had all the hamstring issues coming in at the draft and even early camps.
11:12It was like, is he going to be a, these two guys, I know you're in on Tyler Shuck.
11:17Mike, these two guys, I'm starting to realize.
11:19Oh, very much.
11:20They're a top, they are already, I believe today, a top five tandem in the NFL.
11:24Oh, come on.
11:25No, for real.
11:25Top five's crazy.
11:27No, I don't think it goes.
11:29Top five's crazy.
11:29So you got Jamar and Tee Higgins.
11:30Yeah, so Cowboys and Bengals are top two.
11:31Cowboys, Lamb and Pickens.
11:33Lamb and Pickens, they're done.
11:34I think Puka and Devontae Adams, they're above them.
11:37I think Amon Ra and Jamison Williams, they're above them.
11:40That's where, okay, now you go, the fifth is where they could go.
11:44Jefferson and Addison, okay, sure.
11:46Maybe you put them ahead.
11:47You can't give Tyson that level of respect without a snap on the field.
11:53Sure can.
11:54Sure can.
11:54I mean, you can, and I think it's deserved.
11:57I think he is an absolute maniacal stud.
12:01I don't even know if he's better than Olave.
12:05It's August.
12:05You got to bring out the new stuff.
12:06Jordan Tyson is there.
12:07I mean, then you're going, I mean, Waddle Sutton?
12:13Look, Andy can have him outside the top five while we are here,
12:16and then he's going to have to scramble to catch up, but it'll be too late.
12:19Yeah, I think that they are there.
12:21They are at that tier of, in that fifth tier.
12:25Personally.
12:26Okay.
12:27Anyway, that's why we have the show.
12:30Tucker Craft, activated from the PUP list.
12:34Realistical take part in joint practices.
12:37So, I mean.
12:37He's running very well when it's straight.
12:39It's awesome that Tucker Craft is in the practice consideration right now after the injury.
12:45Chris Brazell, season-ending IR.
12:47Yeah.
12:48That's a bummer.
12:49Kyle Monungay returned to practice after missing three practices.
12:51It was a soft tissue issue.
12:53Xavier Worthy avoided a serious shoulder injury.
12:56He had been carted off.
12:57And rookie wide receiver who was making waves, Cyrus Allen, he was carted off,
13:01but it's a shin bruise, and he had been making plays.
13:04What a wild Twitter rollercoaster that was.
13:06If you were on the football Twitters, Cyrus Allen was almost offensive player of the year in 2026.
13:16He was pretty much the most important player in all of football projected for a day or two.
13:21Then it was carted off.
13:23His career is over, and it was a shin bruise.
13:25So, TBD.
13:26Man, the Chiefs, every year, the Chiefs always have a guy where you're like, holy crap,
13:35this really late-drafted player is about to come into the NFL and set it on fire.
13:40I mean, I'll say this, that like Rashi Rice running downfield looked awful.
13:44His knee is not ready.
13:46And I know you said maybe he's warming up.
13:48That's not a warm-up run.
13:49That was a full-on run.
13:50That's what I'm looking for.
13:51Are you sure?
13:51Yeah, I'm positive.
13:52It was a full-on run.
13:53I agree.
13:54It was a full run.
13:55It was what he's at right now.
13:56I will say this.
13:57We are still months away from the season, and you would expect him coming off of this injury
14:01to not be at 100% right now, but he was clearly not at 100%.
14:06And the reason that the Chiefs have somebody every offseason is because it's been a long
14:10time since Tyreek Hill existed.
14:12And we are trying to find somebody to believe in each and every offseason, whether it's Jalen
14:16Royals for an offseason.
14:18Skymore.
14:19I mean, we know that Mahomes could supply somebody with a lot of fantasy value.
14:26But the odds of it being Cyrus Allen are not high.
14:28No.
14:30Cyrus Allen is just a great name to know for dynasty leagues.
14:32I assume by this point in time, he's been picked up in all dynasty leagues, but there's
14:36some out there that maybe he's sitting on the waivers, and you should scoop him up immediately.
14:40And to the Rashi Rice point, it's just that he is recovering from an actual injury.
14:44Absolutely.
14:44There was a ton of offseason, you know, off the field issues and jail time and things
14:49of that nature.
14:50But you also want to know that this player is back at full strength and going to be a
14:54focal point of the offense.
14:55I, he's, he's a really tough player because I don't think Rashi Rice, and we've said this
15:01before.
15:01I think you guys agree in a different offense, in a different environment.
15:04He's not the fantasy player that he is in Kansas City.
15:08A hundred percent.
15:08They use them around the goal line on touch passes and into rounds and screens and short
15:13area targets.
15:14And he scores a lot of touchdowns and he's a go-to guy in this offense.
15:17There are question marks around his effectiveness because of injury, because of Kelsey's effectiveness,
15:23who I think draws interior coverage, if he's not as good, does, does Rice get as much work
15:28or have as much success?
15:30Probably because of Patrick Mahomes, but they're still, this is a limited player.
15:34This is not a player that's running, you know, the 25 yard digs.
15:38And, and I mean, maybe that's in his repertoire, but we haven't seen it.
15:42He's been a closer to the line of scrimmage catch and run guy, which the funny running
15:46part is the part I'm worried.
15:47The funniest part of the funniest thing I saw said about that was, well, he doesn't get passes
15:51that far down the field anyways.
15:53So what are you worried about?
15:55With the run?
15:55Yeah.
15:56No, I mean, he's like, that's, that's not his eight on over there.
15:59It isn't.
15:59So unless we have any other news, unless the 49ers in the substation have attacked again.
16:04I'll let you know, we'll break in.
16:07We're going to go ahead and take a break and get into ice and fire.
16:16Are we ready for this?
16:17Do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do.
16:23Ice and fire.
16:29Ice and fire.
16:29Well, this is always a very fun segment.
16:41It's one of my favorites.
16:42Uh, we've done this for live shows before, but we each have picked an ice and fire player
16:47to talk about for the upcoming season.
16:50I'm going to come clean right at the top of this segment.
16:54Okay.
16:55Today's going to be a hard day for me.
16:57Okay.
16:58Because I know the names that are coming up.
17:02You don't necessarily love them.
17:03I'm not in agreement with a couple of them and it's going to be really tough for me.
17:08Well, that that's great.
17:09I mean, we shouldn't always be in agreement, but it gives us a chance to sway you.
17:14Yeah.
17:14No, I, let me put it this way.
17:16I am all ears.
17:18I would like to know where my brain is diverging from your brain and I'm excited to hear it.
17:24We're going to start off with, I mean, it's a perfect segue.
17:28We just, we just talked about this team.
17:32I want to talk about Travis Kelsey.
17:34Travis Kelsey is.
17:36You want to talk about screenshots?
17:39The, uh, if you're talking about the Rasheed Rice route, the, uh, the Travis Kelsey photo.
17:47It's not flattering.
17:49I don't know.
17:50That's the problem.
17:51I don't know.
17:52I don't know anymore.
17:52Now I feel like angles of everything and where the, the, the shirt may or Jersey may
17:57have just bloused out, but him and Debo got, I hope they got AI.
18:01Debo's always, yeah, Debo's been thick boy forever.
18:04I mean, we had, we had thick boy Debo in Washington and he still had never forget fat
18:09Keenan Allen season.
18:10Oh yeah.
18:10He dominated.
18:11Well, let's just say this.
18:12It's a really tough thing in the AI world because you know what people are doing?
18:16It's funny.
18:16If you're like, Hey, let's make Victor Victor women.
18:20Yama 30 feet tall.
18:21I could tell that's AI.
18:22Right.
18:22But now they're doing this thing where it's like, make the legs a little bit longer,
18:27just a little bit.
18:28So it looks just a little bit weird.
18:30Give them a, give them eight pounds.
18:33Yeah.
18:33What are we doing?
18:34That should be what's banned in AI.
18:35I don't care about all the rest.
18:37Just don't let people do subtle changes to appearance.
18:39Just learn how to do a joke.
18:41Right.
18:42Um, yeah, we did do that with one of our employees though.
18:45Huh?
18:46Oh, we did.
18:47It was so good.
18:47We changed his hairline just a little bit.
18:49He, we gotta, we gotta tell this story.
18:51This is great.
18:52So that's the, that's the joke for that one.
18:55Yeah.
18:55So we know how to tell jokes.
18:57We play a bunch of games in the office.
18:59People are champions of that game and take unreasonable amounts of pride in winning these
19:03stupid little games.
19:04He had one.
19:05He printed a poster of himself.
19:07A large poster.
19:08And we're talking 24 by 36 framed poster.
19:11Someone should grab it.
19:12Above his desk.
19:13Nah, leave it in.
19:14And, uh, and then he went on vacation.
19:17And he's a young man.
19:19He's the youngest man in this office.
19:20He's a very handsome man.
19:22Handsome, strong, virile.
19:24You know, whatever a young person is.
19:26And, um.
19:27Doesn't have the best hairline.
19:28The hairline though is going.
19:30That's his issue.
19:31We all have our issues.
19:32Yeah, it's his Achilles heel.
19:34And, and, and quite a heel.
19:35Yeah.
19:36Um.
19:37It was worse than mine.
19:38We took the, we took the photo down.
19:41We scanned the photo.
19:43We moved his hairline back.
19:45Just a bit.
19:45We reprinted the photo and we hung it up above his desk.
19:48To see how long until he would notice that his hairline is worse.
19:52Right above his head.
19:53The problem, one of the problems was his name is Jake Pitner.
19:57And we changed his name to Jork Diddler.
19:59Yeah.
20:00And that really let him know that the poster was wrong.
20:02And that's where we went off.
20:03But Mike is just so ashamed that I shared that part.
20:06Um.
20:07But the hairline, we subtly moved it.
20:09And, and, uh.
20:10He noticed.
20:11So, listen.
20:12Travis Kelsey.
20:13And the, and the AI dad bod or not.
20:16I mean, look.
20:16You're going to get one when you're entering the near 40 age range.
20:19He's 36.8 years old.
20:23We're going to talk about Travis Kelsey.
20:25But he is my.
20:26Ice.
20:27Oh, chili.
20:30Okay.
20:31That.
20:31Don't ruin my thing.
20:32All right.
20:33That sounds like you like ice.
20:36Um.
20:37Travis Kelsey.
20:38I know, Mike, you've talked more positively about him as kind of like, maybe he's a great
20:43floor tight end.
20:44Yes.
20:45Uh.
20:45I am.
20:46I'm very concerned.
20:47Uh.
20:48On a number of levels.
20:49It's not surprising.
20:50I am the lowest of the three of us by a lot.
20:53Mike's got him at nine.
20:53Jason at 11.
20:54I've got him at 17.
20:57You know, I feel like part of the argument is the obvious stuff.
21:01Everything's going down in terms of the production, the snap percentage, the target share, the
21:06targets per outrun, the receptions, the red zone targets.
21:09I mean, it is gone down significantly.
21:12I think the red zone targets is one to bring up specifically where like 26 down to 11.
21:17That's a big difference.
21:19So then you're like, is he just less valuable?
21:21Do they use them less?
21:23Is he losing a step?
21:25Well, the chiefs are like when they targeted the tight end position, Travis Kelsey, 20th
21:30in yards per attempt, 22nd in pass success rate, 32nd in percentage of inaccurate targets.
21:35He's not where he used to be.
21:37That's the point.
21:38If you are 32nd in an accurate target number.
21:42The man's about to be 37.
21:43Which I will forgive.
21:45Holy crap.
21:46How is he that old?
21:47I will forgive it if he's not playing football.
21:50You can be 37.
21:51Yeah.
21:51You can be older.
21:52You just can't do it on a field and have success.
21:55And 41% of his routes at this point now are the old guy routes, the short stuff.
21:59You don't get the big plays that you used to get from Kelsey.
22:02His fantasy points per game are in decline, 15, 11, 9, 9.1.
22:08I agree that there's a world where Travis Kelsey is fine as a floor play tight end.
22:14But do you want, I mean, Jason, you've talked so much about the tight end position.
22:18Yeah.
22:19If you're not going for a big top five, I think it's a top five.
22:23You know, Bowers, McBride, Loveland, Warren, Fannin.
22:26Oh, you put Fannin in?
22:27Okay.
22:27I put Fannin in.
22:28That's fine.
22:28You don't have to.
22:30Four and a half, whatever.
22:31You don't want to put last year's top five tight end Travis Kelsey in there?
22:35Well, I mean, it is a product of availability, not performance.
22:39It is.
22:39He has been out there.
22:41I just think it might be worth taking a shot at a high upside athletic tight end like Isaiah
22:46Likely in New York.
22:48Britton Strange in the offense that we're going to love in Jacksonville.
22:50I mean, they could be a Super Bowl contender.
22:52I just find it to be like there's a world where you draft Kelsey high enough to where you lock
22:59him in as your tight end and he performs bad enough for you to be really not able to make
23:03the moves you need to make.
23:04That's where I think I disagree is where he's being drafted is not high.
23:09I mean, he's double digit rounds.
23:10We've done mocks where he's undrafted.
23:12But if, you know, if he's not one of the top 12 that you're when I draft, I'm either getting
23:17one of those top guys or I'm waiting till the very last pick.
23:20And there's been times where at that last pick, I'm basically waiting to see if I want
23:27Kelsey or Kincaid.
23:29And I do.
23:30I will say this.
23:30I usually go the other way.
23:31I'm trying to swing for the fences to have someone that is a higher upside.
23:35However, you know, Kelsey will be involved in the offense.
23:40We'll get, you know, if you're in a, especially a full PPR league, you should have a safe floor
23:45and it costs you nothing.
23:47The question is, could he score more around the goal line?
23:51I was going to ask Mike, do you, you know, outside of the availability argument in the
23:55nine, you know, eight or nine points game, is there a world in your mind that Travis Kelsey
24:00and a year older is making a jump up?
24:05That's kind of the decision is it not a meaning like above those top five names I gave you.
24:11No, no, no, no.
24:11Or Tucker Kraft.
24:13No.
24:13Kyle Pitts.
24:14Kyle Pitts.
24:15Maybe.
24:16Okay.
24:16You know, for all the, what we're talking about here, last year Kyle Pitts, even with the
24:23greatest game that a fantasy tight end has ever given us, 9.8 points per game.
24:29And Travis Kelsey was just over nine.
24:31Like this is not a wide margin between the two.
24:34Where Kyle Pitts could absolutely be, like he still has a ceiling that we don't know if
24:41it's there or if it's not.
24:43It won't be there for Kelsey.
24:44The upside play for him is he's so late in the draft and the addition of Kenneth Walker
24:51makes this offense better.
24:54And you actually, when you get into the, you know, inside the five, we used to get all
24:58those like the fun, the bowling ball throw to Travis Kelsey because the defense actually
25:03had to worry about is the running back going to get the ball.
25:06Yeah.
25:06Ken Walker makes it much better.
25:08So that's where I'm not going to push back a ton and say like, I love Travis Kelsey or
25:14anything like that.
25:14I'm really curious about what third downs look like for the Chiefs this year.
25:17Because to me, the third down magic last year was Mahomes' legs.
25:21He would get out of situations and pick up a third down.
25:24If it's third and six, seven, and he's running down the field, spray him with water.
25:30Oh, sorry.
25:31I barely did.
25:32Spray him with water.
25:34I'll get you next time.
25:35You know, is Kelsey going to be able to be open for those third down conversions?
25:38You know, how do they do that without Mahomes' legs?
25:41So there you go.
25:42My ice, not a surprising one, but also one I think, to me, I'm aiming elsewhere.
25:46I'm going elsewhere.
25:47I'm going to not appropriate too much to the name and expect too much from him.
25:50Travis Kelsey is the ace.
25:51I like the, if you're talking about, you know, the younger guys of Isaiah Likely, Okonkwo,
25:58guys that, they probably will not pan out.
26:03But they're at least at an age for football players that something good could happen that
26:11we're not really seeing yet.
26:14All right.
26:14Who's up next?
26:16The suspense is building, Jason.
26:18All right.
26:19I'll go next.
26:20I'm going to go from a player who is in the double digit rounds to a player who's very,
26:24very, very high in drafts.
26:27A player that we all love.
26:29And by we, I don't just mean the three of us.
26:30I mean the world.
26:33A player I love coming out.
26:35I'm also, however, getting cold.
26:38Oh, ice.
26:40It's Devon A. Chan is my ice pick for 2026.
26:46And this is closer and closer to a green.
26:50Look, it's sad.
26:51I feel like you both are there and I am unhappy.
26:53So let me talk to you.
26:55You think we're happy about these things?
26:57You currently have him as your running back.
26:59Four.
27:00I get it.
27:00He was awesome last year.
27:02He was so consistent.
27:04He had more than 11 fantasy points in every single game.
27:08There's only four running backs that have ever done that.
27:11Priest Holmes back in 2003.
27:13DeMarco Murray.
27:13Christian McCaffrey once.
27:15And last year's Devon A. Chan.
27:17And obviously the Dolphins were bad last year.
27:19So the argument is like, well, if the argument is that he's on a bad team, and he's still on a bad team.
27:24However, he's on a much worse team.
27:27I mean that's...
27:27So here is my argument.
27:31When I say he's on a much worse team, I'm saying how many total points are the Miami Dolphins going to score?
27:39Because without Waddle and without Tua and with no wide receiver weapons...
27:44Without Mike McDaniel.
27:44Exactly.
27:46Without Mike McDaniel, they are most likely going to score fewer points than last year.
27:52Now, if we look at the Vegas lines, they are projected for the 29th most total NFL points.
27:59That is really, really bad.
28:01If you look at the wins, they are projected for a grand total of five and a half wins.
28:08No, no, no.
28:09Is it four and a half, Kyle?
28:11What is their projection?
28:12Three.
28:12Two.
28:13Can I get a two?
28:14Four and a half.
28:15Four and a half wins.
28:17And so, obviously, we talk about we want players at the running back position from good teams that win games.
28:23That doesn't mean they can't come from a bad team and be good, but where is he being drafted?
28:30Is he being drafted at a value or is he not?
28:32And right now, he's being drafted at like the one-two turn.
28:36He is being drafted as a clear-cut RB1, very high.
28:41He's costing you a lot in fantasy.
28:43And very similar to how I had Ashton Gentry as my bust pick last year.
28:48I look at the situation.
28:49I go, it's not going to return.
28:51You're going to make a mistake if you're taking him that high.
28:53It's going to work out poor for you.
28:55You have, first of all, over the last two years, he played with the quarterback that targeted the running back position more than any quarterback in the NFL.
29:04That is his superpower.
29:07A target is worth so much more than a carry for fantasy football.
29:11And those targets will certainly go down.
29:13Not only does he lose Tua, but he goes all the way to a quarterback that we don't know his tendencies because we haven't seen him much.
29:19But Malik Willis has wheels and might scramble instead of checking it down here or there.
29:23That makes sense.
29:25That sucks.
29:26But, you know, can it work for a team that wins four and a half games to have a running back really give you value at that one-two turn in fantasy football?
29:39How rare his ADP is is crazy.
29:43Listen to this.
29:44Since 2014, there's only three running backs who were drafted in the top three rounds with a win total of five and a half or fewer.
29:52Isaiah Crowell back in 2017, David Johnson in 2019, and this year, Devon Achan being drafted not just in the top three, but a borderline first-round pick.
30:03What's his ADP?
30:04He's like 202 last I saw this morning.
30:07What running back is that?
30:08I know I'm above eight.
30:09I think it was running back eight.
30:10Six or seven?
30:11Okay, eight.
30:13Here's a study, and I think you won't like hearing this, but Brandon Gadula.
30:19That's the opposite.
30:20Yeah, yeah, yeah.
30:20I'm saying you need to hear this.
30:22Okay.
30:22I'm saying open your ears.
30:23Here's this thing that you'll like.
30:25Here's this thing that.
30:26You're not going to like it.
30:28It's like having your vegetables.
30:32You don't like it, but you really need it, and you need to hear this.
30:35Among running backs drafted in the first three rounds since 2014, only 27 were on teams projected for fewer than seven wins.
30:45And remember, Achan's at four and a half.
30:4830% of that group outperformed their ADP in terms of fantasy points per game.
30:55There's just – he has to be outrageously perfect, have crazy high touchdown.
31:01The 44% of those fell shy of their expectation by at least two points per game.
31:07Yeah.
31:07Two PPR points.
31:08There's a weird thing going on this year.
31:10I'm trying to be very open-minded to this argument.
31:12I hate it because I think Devon Achan is in the Gibbs category of talent.
31:16He's a great player.
31:17And so we look at this, and I'm looking at the ADP in the top.
31:21Like, all right, Bajon is – Bajon's 7.5 wins for Atlanta.
31:25That's sub 500.
31:26It's not that same level.
31:28But then, like, you know, the Raiders.
31:30The Raiders are going to be at five and a half, six and a half, depending on the book you're looking at.
31:34Dolphins are at the bottom of that list.
31:36But it's interesting because all three of those names are in your top seven, top eight.
31:40Yeah.
31:40And so push is going to come to shove.
31:43I know you love Ashton Jenti.
31:44Yes.
31:45And so it's hard for me to swallow Devon Achan going from the singular most consistent running back.
31:54So his ability – his special talent last year to me was overcoming how horrendous the Dolphins were.
32:00That was his gift.
32:01His gift was just somehow they're down by a million points.
32:04He still ends up with big performances.
32:06I hate doubting the talent of Devon Achan, and that's what it feels like you're doing.
32:11Yeah.
32:12But it's not what I'm doing.
32:14Your numbers make sense.
32:15But you're playing the odds, not the player.
32:18I am playing the odds, not the player.
32:19And that's where we –
32:20Odds are that Devon Achan is a very bad bet.
32:23If you want to pick him at where he's going currently, and hopefully after this show, maybe he gets down into that middle of the third round.
32:30It's like, oof, that's a value.
32:32Let's scoop him up.
32:33It just feels like he's going to have to be –
32:36And I know you agree, Mike.
32:37And I hear what you're saying.
32:39It makes sense.
32:40Mike McDaniel being gone is – that's the biggest red flag for me.
32:47And then Malik Willis, we know – look, guys that scramble, you get fewer checkdowns.
32:54It does happen.
32:55It's – just to play slightly devil's advocate argument, just to get your response to this,
33:01we also know that the absence of weapons lends itself towards a heavier involvement.
33:06This is a guy that got paid huge amounts of money this offseason.
33:11The offense is Devon Achan.
33:12He came out yesterday in training camp.
33:16He's focused on winning the rushing record for the season.
33:19I mean, that's the goal for him is to be the rushing leader.
33:22So, for me, that's one where I drew the line on talent over situation.
33:27And that's the bet.
33:28Which I feel like we've done with Bijan for a number of years.
33:30When you take him at ADP, that is 100% the bet.
33:34It's like, what does it look like?
33:36What does this offense look like when Achan is everything?
33:41And I know he was like – he's a focal point of the offense.
33:44I admit that you have an argument there.
33:45But it's like you still had Waddle last year, who is an elite player.
33:49And then ADP-wise, it's like, okay, right here, what I'm seeing right now, you know, Barkley.
33:55He's right around where Achan is going.
33:57And then right after Achan is Hampton, Chase Brown, Kenneth Walker, Derrick Henry.
34:02All running backs that you will not be able to draft.
34:05Yeah, I mean, I could see an argument for Walker over him, Hampton over him, Chase Brown over him.
34:12I don't see –
34:13Those are the hard.
34:14Those are the exact types.
34:15I don't see Saquon or Henry over him.
34:16You don't? Okay.
34:17Yeah.
34:18Yeah, I mean, he will get the ball a lot.
34:20My issue is I think it will be more on the ground.
34:22Here's what we know.
34:24We know that every second and long, they will mistakenly hand the ball to Achan because Bobby Sloak is there.
34:33That was so frustrating.
34:34Third and long is going to absolutely rip.
34:36I feel like part of this argument is you are – you're building an idiocy by the Dolphins.
34:43Because only an idiot would not give the ball to this man more than anybody else in the league.
34:47No, I think they will give it to the man, but more in carries than in targets.
34:52And a target is worth so much more in fantasy football.
34:54What is he average?
34:546.1 a carry?
34:55Something like that?
34:56Man.
34:57He's a great player.
34:58What is he average per target?
34:59And half point on top of that.
35:01I'm saying fantasy points.
35:02Who are they going to throw it to if it's not him?
35:04I don't know.
35:05Yeah, I mean –
35:05That's where it's hard.
35:07It's a long list of mediocre players.
35:07No, I told you it's going to be hard for me to swallow.
35:09I wanted to have the conversation, and the numbers are compelling.
35:12The numbers of your odds are not great.
35:17I'm not sure the ADP is too expensive or not.
35:19That's the hard part.
35:20But you bring up some names where, like, I'm getting really toasty about Ken Walker.
35:24You know, it's like – seems like he's going to be the chief's offense.
35:26We have all these discussions around Rice and Cyrus Allen and Kelsey.
35:30It just feels like the chiefs are going to be Ken Walker in the defense.
35:33So that's a tough one.
35:35He's – and then he's in this category of, I don't know if I want him at his ADP.
35:41Could be a lost year for my head.
35:42But if he's on my opponent's team, I'm going to be like –
35:45All right, what you got, Mike?
35:47All right, well, speaking of Jalen Waddell, we'll just get right to it.
35:52Fire.
35:53Absolute fire.
35:54New Denver Broncos superstar, Jalen Waddell.
35:58Yes, I have a Jalen Waddell problem, but I think we finally have a solution, guys.
36:04We got him over to Bo Nix and Sean Payton and the Denver Broncos.
36:08He's going right now about the back of the fourth, wide receiver 23.
36:12So a fringe wide receiver two.
36:15And just remember what happened.
36:17So Jalen Waddell, he's still in prime age.
36:20You know, he will be turning 28.
36:22We're okay with that.
36:24These are still some prime years for the wide receiver position.
36:27The Broncos traded a first, a future third, and fourth to go get Jalen Waddell.
36:33They looked at what they had last year in terms of pass catchers and weapons,
36:38and Sean Payton and crew decided this is not enough.
36:42You know, Bo Nix – what is it?
36:44Bo Nix threw the ball more than anyone in the NFL last year,
36:48and it doesn't feel like it because you didn't get the production,
36:51because you didn't have a true elite player.
36:54The superlatives coming from Sean Payton about Jalen Waddell are already just top tier,
37:01saying he walks on water with his traits.
37:04Talk about the great speed.
37:05Okay, Sean.
37:06Hey, perhaps a little blasphemous, but it's going to be good for your fantasy football team.
37:11Great speed and stop.
37:13So that start-stop stuff, it's really important, and that's how Waddell can win.
37:20Last year, you know, in totality, it didn't fully work for Jalen Waddell and crew,
37:26but on a per-route basis, look, man, still elite.
37:32You know, we're talking a player who is a 2.42 yards per route run,
37:36a 26% targets per route run.
37:39This is a guy that gets the ball because he demands the ball because he gets open.
37:45Per Ryan Heath, over the last four years, Waddell was targeted on 29% of his routes
37:50and averaged 2.85 yards per route run when Tyreek Hill was not on the field.
37:55So this is a player that he can be a true number one.
37:59The beginning of Jalen Waddell's career was he was banished to Siberia,
38:04a.k.a. the Miami Dolphins, only to give us a wide receiver 16 season as a rookie
38:10and then a wide receiver 7, and we thought, man, the wheels are absolutely up.
38:13But then they bring in Tyreek Hill, and it's understandable that Tyreek Hill
38:19is going to come in and take over and be the true wide receiver one on the team.
38:23But now he gets to be the wide receiver one for the Denver Broncos.
38:28Davis Webb, the new play caller for the Broncos.
38:32We will get low A dots.
38:34We will get screens to Jalen Waddell, and I think he will absolutely succeed.
38:39Knicks led the NFL in screen attempts over the last two years.
38:43If you're going to do them a bunch, you might as well go get yourself a player
38:46who can be elite and give you production with those things.
38:50So I'm very in on Jalen Waddell being barely priced as a wide receiver two.
38:55I think that he can – I mean, we always want sure, known target volume.
39:03You know, when we're taking these players, Jay, we're always like, man,
39:07I just want someone who's going to – I need 150 targets.
39:10Yeah.
39:10And it's like Jalen Waddell can 100% do that for you.
39:15So, you know, I don't have extreme numbers for him,
39:19but I think he can get over 1,100 yards around six touchdowns.
39:22And I think there's even a ceiling that I do not have projected into my numbers,
39:28and my numbers still put him way ahead of the market.
39:31There's two things that get me a little hot and bothered for Waddell
39:36because when the trade happened, I was like pretty much out on Waddell.
39:39I'm like, okay, he's coming to a team with Cortland Sutton that spreads the ball around.
39:42They have a great defense. They don't need to get in shootouts.
39:45So I was pretty out on Waddell, just like, hey, it's good for the Broncos.
39:51The more time has gone on, two things have happened.
39:54One, and I've mentioned this before, I went back and I watched the tape on Bo Nix again,
39:59especially all of his deep shots, and it just was a screaming need.
40:05He didn't have a weapon to utilize how he wants to play ball.
40:09And then you combine that with the fact that, well, they saw that.
40:13They went out and got him.
40:14But recently, you talk about what Sean Payton has said and, you know,
40:18cute little sound bites like he walks on water.
40:20But I saw an interview yesterday with Sean Payton where he was genuinely talking
40:24to these people about, you have no idea how much we're going to use Jalen Waddell.
40:28He was like, you can use him long.
40:30You can use him short.
40:30I can move him in the slot.
40:32I can move him out wide.
40:32And he talked about fantasy football.
40:34Specifically, he said, it's easier to project a running back or a tight end
40:40because you can manufacture those touches.
40:42It's hard with a wide receiver because you don't know where the ball's going.
40:48And then he's like, but not with Waddell.
40:50Like, we are going to be getting Waddell the ball a ton.
40:55And so that's made me update my belief in the target share.
41:00I still don't think this is an offense that's going to, you know,
41:04be in the top 10 in total points.
41:07Not that they couldn't be, but because of their defense.
41:09I don't think they will actually end up there.
41:11However, I do think that the slice of pie Waddell gets from this offense is far
41:17larger than I thought earlier this offseason.
41:19Yeah, I mean, Payton always gives me a little bit.
41:21I mean, I like the pick.
41:22I like Waddell.
41:24He's moved up in my rankings.
41:25I like the idea that this is a superstar that we finally have where all the other
41:29receivers sort of blend together, don't they?
41:31They kind of blend into this.
41:32You just have wide receivers.
41:34That's what you have with Mims and Pat Bryant and Sutton and, you know, Franklin.
41:40Yeah, thank you.
41:41I know.
41:41So that's the, you know, Jason likes Franklin.
41:45I like Pat Bryant.
41:46But it's like they have been searching.
41:49They've been searching and not finding.
41:51I'm just going to sound because, like, Waddell's best season was in 2022.
41:56Yes.
41:57And we are a few years away from that.
42:00Like, will you be happy with 10.1 fancy points per game in Denver?
42:04Probably not for Jalen Waddell.
42:06No, I don't think so.
42:07And I was trying to look up where that would put him as a wide receiver.
42:10That's where he was last year.
42:11Obviously, it seems like he's more hurt than his numbers say.
42:16Yeah, that part is true.
42:17It looks like he plays about 15, 16 games, but he only plays, like, half of them.
42:23But, no, I like the pick.
42:25I think he needs to come up in my rankings.
42:27I like all the comments from Payton about high expectations.
42:32He said, I don't follow fancy football, but, shoot, I'd try to have him.
42:35I think he's going to do well.
42:38But I also think that Sean Payton is kind of a very – he's one of the least
42:41predictable head coaches because he's willing to throw the ball to anybody,
42:44any time, hand the ball to anybody, any time.
42:47That would be the back-of-my-head fear.
42:49Remember back in the day, though, when Michael Thomas was part of the Sean Payton system
42:53and they had that guy who could win on both areas of the field.
42:57Yeah, that's what the hope is.
42:58And it was just get him the ball every play.
43:00All right, we'll take a break.
43:01We'll come back with three more picks.
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44:12All right.
44:16Ice and Fire continues.
44:18I'm not going to leave you in suspense here.
44:20My fire pick is Emeka Abuka.
44:24Fire.
44:26Yes.
44:27Emeka.
44:28Big, big, big boo.
44:29Let me get you there.
44:30Emeka, big, boo.
44:33I'd be so sick if it was on the back of his jersey.
44:36We have spent a lot of time this offseason talking about Abuka, about the end of the season and the bad scars and taste in your mouth.
44:42Because he was so terrible at the end of the year.
44:44If you want to know part of that equation, it was the fact that 27% of his targets were inaccurate at the end of the year.
44:52That's the worst of any player in the National Football League.
44:56So do we hold Abuka to be the only one to blame for that?
45:01I think if your targets are inaccurate, they're harder to catch.
45:03That's my analysis of the situation.
45:06I'm not a professional.
45:09Right.
45:09But that sounds pretty good.
45:10Did you ever catch any of my targets in flag football when they weren't near you?
45:14No.
45:15No.
45:15See, that's where my market research was.
45:18The uncatchable targets are very difficult to catch.
45:21Right.
45:22Nearly.
45:22Almost.
45:23Because of the un.
45:24Yeah.
45:24So he had 127 targets last year.
45:27Only 81 of those targets were catchable.
45:29So he was heavily targeted.
45:31We had such the, you know, so much excitement over the first half of the year.
45:34This is the second most fantasy points scored ever to start a career by a wide receiver.
45:38So everybody got on board.
45:40Everybody's excited for the Hall of Fame career commencing.
45:42And then we got a really, really bad end of the season.
45:45Reasons being, he hurt his hamstring in week six.
45:48That lingered.
45:49Mike Evans got knocked out.
45:50He got moved to the X position, which was tougher for him to execute on.
45:55I think that's what went into some of the uncatchable targets.
45:57And then we know that Baker Mayfield was absolutely damaged.
46:02Damaged.
46:02You know, injury was the right word for Baker Mayfield.
46:07A couple of them.
46:09This offseason, you're going to see Emeka Abuka with the absence of Mike Evans blossom into the do-everything wide receiver that this team needs.
46:17I think they have a top-tier quarterback in Baker Mayfield.
46:20His skill set, he's going to be the Z receiver.
46:23He's lining up off the line.
46:24He's being moved all over the place.
46:26Zach Robinson is coming in.
46:28And, you know, last year, like I said, lined up at the X for the majority of the snaps.
46:33He is much more versatile.
46:34You're going to have Chris Godwin in the slot.
46:36You're going to have McMillan and Ted Hurst at the X spot.
46:39And then Abuka is going to be your go-to player all over the field.
46:44And so I'm just so excited for the upside and potential for Abuka to really solidify himself as a top 12 receiver all year long.
46:54Yep, not impossible.
46:54We've seen enough from him in those games to see what kind of a route runner he is.
47:02He understands everything about this offense.
47:04He knows how to track the ball.
47:07I'm just very, very excited for the future of Emeka Abuka.
47:10And I think you do inherit in fantasy.
47:13One of the reasons I pivoted to him, I was thinking about going A.J. Brown here.
47:17I like A.J. Brown in New England.
47:19But I wanted to go with Abuka because I think you have a little bit of a discount here.
47:25You have a discount and it's the, you know, I don't know what he is discount.
47:31And so I think you should draw your conclusions from half a year of being one of the most successful rookies in the history of the game.
47:37That's a tremendously difficult thing to do.
47:40So you'll listen to this show the last 12 years.
47:42Most of the time we say, hey, watch out for the second half of the year for rookie wide receivers to get acclimated.
47:46This is what took place for a lot of players.
47:48What we meant for Abuka was, though, watch out.
47:51Right.
47:51In this situation, it's going to get you.
47:53Watch out for the second half of the year.
47:54You're going to start him a bunch of times that you wish you hadn't.
47:57But I don't think this guy stopped being a talented wide receiver.
48:00Everything from camp, healthy baker.
48:03I'm really in on Abuka.
48:04I think this is an opportunity being drafted as the wide receiver 19 where you have top seven potential for a Mecca Abuka this year.
48:12So I want to jump back on that bandwagon.
48:14Forgive the second half and expect big things from an offense.
48:17I actually like, I mean, the offensive line is going to be a little bit better.
48:21Bucky Irving is going to be back.
48:22Play action.
48:23I think Abuka could come out and be a dominator to start the year.
48:28I'm trying to remember where he was being drafted last year.
48:30Like, I don't think we're that far off.
48:36You know, where you weren't sure.
48:38You knew he was a first round in the pedigree and all that.
48:41He was, I think, like a six-round pick.
48:43And now you have at least some proof of concept.
48:47No, he could be that player we thought he was.
48:50And he's still going in the fourth.
48:51I like the ADP.
48:53It just seems like, I don't think that ADP is going to change much.
48:57It shouldn't.
48:58And what was it?
49:01You know, the first half of the year last year, this was up over 15 fantasy points a game.
49:06Yeah.
49:06And the changes that happened midseason with the injuries around him shifted him around.
49:13He's coming in this year being placed in the role that he is supposed to be playing,
49:18that they drafted him to play, and that he was really special.
49:22We all love the talent.
49:23I think we all forgive the injuries and expect the offense to be much better.
49:28And you mentioned it, Andy, but I think it bears mentioning again, the offensive line
49:33for the Buccaneers are one of the fantasy storylines that really needs to be thought of more.
49:41Because this is a good NFL offensive line that had so many injuries last year that they were
49:46a bad.
49:47Like, you only really look at the outliers.
49:49Middle of the pack is whatever.
49:50This is a top offensive line that was a bottom offensive line, very similar to what we've
49:56been talking about with the Chargers.
49:57And so that changes things for a fantasy offense.
50:02All right, Mike.
50:03Why don't you go next?
50:04And Jason can round us out.
50:05All right.
50:07You already got my fire pick.
50:09I think this is the one that has Andy a little bit flustered.
50:14Ice.
50:14Ice.
50:16My ice player for 2026 is Quinshawn Judkins.
50:24I haven't.
50:26What are you trying to do over there, Jay?
50:28You're just hitting a lot of buttons with getting no sound, huh?
50:31Is he trying to cheer or is he trying to boo?
50:33I don't know.
50:34He's just.
50:35Oh, the people hate it.
50:38Well, that's all right.
50:39Like Jon Snow against the Horde.
50:41Is it burning that Jason is booing it too or is he just.
50:44He's booing me.
50:45I am booing Mike.
50:46He's booing me.
50:47I am much more on your side here, Andy.
50:49Oh, my gosh.
50:50Yeah.
50:50I haven't cried in a bunch of years, but I feel like crying right now.
50:53And I assume a lot of your arguments are going to be the arguments I made about H&M,
50:56but the ADP is the difference.
50:58So go ahead, Mike.
50:59They will be.
51:00They are pretty similar.
51:02Bad team.
51:03Bad team.
51:04Bad quarterback.
51:04But let's start with the actual player.
51:07Oh, no.
51:10This is.
51:11This one's good.
51:12This one is.
51:12You won't like these numbers.
51:14Fight.
51:14Fight.
51:15I'm really fine with you not liking him because he's on the Browns.
51:18I'm not going to be fine with what you say next.
51:20These are just statistics.
51:22So you can get mad at that.
51:25So rush success rate.
51:27I'm going to start with that.
51:29And that sometimes it can get a little bit lost where you're like,
51:32what is that exactly?
51:34So rush success rate is based off of the down and distance.
51:38How many of the yards did the running back get?
51:42So whether a play gains at least 40% of the yards required on first down,
51:4760% of the yards on second down.
51:49And then, of course, you need all the yards on third or fourth down.
51:55And this is why we say, you know, yards per carry.
51:57It's not everything.
51:58Things happen.
51:59You know, you get a bunch of carries inside.
52:01It's also historically not a valuable metric to look at for rookies.
52:06Right.
52:06Sometimes you're inside the five and you get some carries and it's like,
52:10oh, my yards per carry was down a little bit there.
52:12But here's the thing.
52:13Rush success rate is like this is based off of the flow of the game.
52:17So like if, you know, like I said, 40% of the yards are first down.
52:21If you look at rush success rate out of 55 running backs, you got it?
52:28Is that the number?
52:31Judkins ranked 55.
52:33You think this man cares about rush success?
52:36He's trying to survive in Cleveland.
52:38This is the open plains, Mike.
52:40This is survival.
52:42It's bad.
52:44Like to not be like to have truly a lack of success on your carries.
52:49You'll get a big one every once in a while and you'll score some touchdowns.
52:53But we're talking about overall efficiency.
52:56Like you're absolutely just killing the offense.
52:59You can have players with a low yards per carry.
53:01Like so Emmanuel Wilson under four, but a 58% rush success.
53:06Basial Tootin 3.7.
53:08That's real bad.
53:09But a 58% rush success.
53:12Even the much maligned Zach Charbonnet where we're like,
53:16why do they keep putting in charms?
53:2048%.
53:20And here's Quinn Sean Judkins at the very bottom at 41% of the time.
53:26He's having a what you would call a successful rush.
53:29As a receiver, 33%.
53:33Only Devin Singletary was worse among qualified rookie running backs
53:37over the last decade.
53:40Efficiency-wise, he was lacking as the rookie,
53:42and I just don't see it changing for them.
53:45The Cleveland Browns, shockingly to me,
53:48the Cleveland Browns are a 6.5 win total team,
53:50which is somehow better than the Miami Dolphins.
53:53Significantly better.
53:54They are 30th in average.
53:56The Cleveland Browns are 30th in average implied total,
53:59in terms of the total points that will be scored in their games.
54:03Cleveland is favored in only two games this year,
54:05and none after their week 11 bye.
54:08And the offensive line,
54:10in consensus offensive line rankings around everywhere,
54:14Cleveland is dead last,
54:15in terms of what people are expecting from this offensive line.
54:20There was a point in your adoration for Kenneth Walker
54:23in which there were a lot of these numbers for you.
54:27But you believed in the player.
54:29And I admit it's going to be tough sledding for that offense.
54:33I think the Browns are going to be a better team than people expect.
54:37Losing Miles Garrett...
54:39That's in the defense.
54:40Last year, the defense can keep you engaged.
54:42The defense was number eight last year in fantasy points score.
54:45They will not be number eight.
54:46They will still be a very good defense.
54:48They intercepted a lot of passes.
54:49They caused a lot of forced fumbles.
54:51I know Miles Garrett dominates a lot.
54:52So much that is Miles.
54:53They didn't get nobody back for him.
54:55You know what I mean?
54:55Yeah, yeah, yeah.
54:56I mean, you get Quinn coming in,
54:59and I think that they're going to be a better team than people expect.
55:02I do.
55:03Well, I...
55:04That part, Jason, will disagree with me on.
55:05I think they will be...
55:06But every year you get surprised by some teams
55:08that are supposed to be basement dwellers.
55:09I think they will be plenty bad.
55:11And here's...
55:12Plenty bad is fair.
55:13The difference between Achan and Judkins.
55:16ADP, of course.
55:17You know, risk being baked into cost.
55:20But Achan is an elite pass catcher.
55:23It is nice to have...
55:24Is Judkins an elite pass catcher?
55:26No.
55:26No, they've talked about him being three down.
55:28Look, this is a belief in the talent of the player.
55:30The running back coach said he thinks he could be a three down running back.
55:33I mean, it's better than him not saying that.
55:35I mean...
55:36Sure, sure.
55:36This offense also has...
55:38Absolutely.
55:38...actual, like...
55:39If you look at what happened last year,
55:41there's no one to throw the ball to.
55:44Like, adding Concepcion, adding Boston,
55:46having Fannin coming in here,
55:48they have some actual weapons.
55:50They actually have good players on this team.
55:52I'm just saying, he's not going to be alone.
55:54Spencer Fano tackle with the ninth pick overall.
55:57So that offensive line hopefully is better than it was last year,
56:01even if it's...
56:01Yeah, this one just hurts my heart.
56:02I totally get it.
56:03I actually am more on any side solely
56:06because I think he is a good player.
56:08A lot of those statistics and the yards per carry and stuff,
56:12I think if you go back and you watch the film,
56:14he was impressive.
56:15And if this offensive line is a little better,
56:17if Shadour is better, and he should be in year two,
56:20I'm not going to be shocked.
56:21Where's his ADP?
56:22Let's just have that conversation.
56:23He is in the fifth round running back 22.
56:26I mean, I'm just...
56:27I'm all up in that.
56:28Yeah.
56:29At that point, for a guy who can be a three down back...
56:32I knew it would be a tough day, man.
56:33If you look at last year...
56:34I talked to a therapist.
56:35I knew what was going on today.
56:36Last year, his rookie season, Quinchon Judkins,
56:39he got injured early in camp, didn't play week one,
56:43got worked back in a little bit in week two.
56:46From that point until the game where he got,
56:48unfortunately, injured, he was playing a workhorse role.
56:52He was on pace for 300 rushing attempts.
56:56And yes, it was inefficient, but over 1,000 rushing yards as a rookie.
57:00I mean, if he's being drafted at running back 22
57:03and you have him as ice,
57:04you probably have him below his ADP.
57:07I do.
57:08So then we can bet like a top 24 running back.
57:12That should be easy, you know?
57:14I mean, what you want...
57:15You're happy if you get a top 24
57:17out of Quinchon Judkins,
57:18who's being drafted as running back 22?
57:21Well, let's go where my mark is right now.
57:2328.
57:26I'm confused now.
57:27That seems even better for me.
57:28No, you do.
57:28Yeah, no.
57:29I did it backwards.
57:29You did.
57:30All right, fine.
57:30Go top 24.
57:31I did it backwards.
57:34I should have...
57:34Water bad.
57:35This is where I'm...
57:36Jason would have taken that bet.
57:37I saw it right away.
57:38I was like,
57:39here's where my mind is at.
57:40Here's where my mind is at.
57:41Because, and the, hey,
57:42Ryan Heath gets another shout out.
57:43I would have given you top 20.
57:45Ryan Heath, another shout out to him.
57:47Because we love Todd Monken's offenses.
57:49Absolutely.
57:50They produce fantasy points for us.
57:54In Todd Monken offenses, though,
57:56a different player has led in rush attempts per game
57:59and targets per game.
58:01Yeah, they have capable pass catchers
58:02that aren't quench on Judkins,
58:04like Dylan Sampson.
58:04And one of the wild ones about this
58:06is, hey, you know,
58:09Doug Martin,
58:11you know,
58:11all the unfortunate stuff with Doug Martin,
58:13but as a player...
58:15RIP.
58:15Yeah.
58:16In 2016,
58:17Doug Martin was averaging 16 rushing attempts per game,
58:21and Charles Sims led the running back position
58:23at 4.6 targets per game.
58:25Doug Martin had a season of 70 targets.
58:28This wasn't like he couldn't do it.
58:30They just changed.
58:32And then you've had...
58:33So, Martin and Sims,
58:35Peyton Barber,
58:36and Jacquez Rogers,
58:38Nick Chubb,
58:39and Kareem Hunt,
58:40Gus Edwards,
58:41and Justice Hill,
58:42and then, of course,
58:42Derrick Henry and Justice Hill.
58:44This is a team that's going to be losing
58:45a bunch of games.
58:46And Dylan Sampson...
58:47You like Javante more than him?
58:50I'm just thinking about it.
58:51Yeah, I do.
58:52Like, there's a handful of guys
58:53that are probably in the
58:54not catching a ton of passes category.
58:56I was just curious where you might slot him.
58:58So, it's like,
58:59if they are losing,
59:01Samson's probably going to be on the field.
59:02And Samson is just...
59:03He was a better pass catcher than...
59:05I think you're right.
59:06...than he was last year.
59:07So, that...
59:07Like, there's just so many problems
59:09of how many touchdown opportunities,
59:11losing games,
59:12those types of things.
59:13And then,
59:13opportunity cost,
59:15the way I look at it right now,
59:17running back's going right behind Judkins.
59:19David Montgomery...
59:20I'll take Judkins every day of the week.
59:21I'll probably...
59:22I'll take Judkins there.
59:23That's okay.
59:24But then it's Tootin,
59:25DeAndre Swift,
59:27and Jadarian Price,
59:28all going after Quinshawn Judkins.
59:30You would take Price over Judkins?
59:32I think...
59:32Yeah.
59:32I mean, that's when I would easily go Judkins.
59:34Oh, I'll take Price.
59:36What are you, Jay?
59:37I think I would go Judkins
59:39in most of those situations.
59:41I like the player.
59:42I like the talent.
59:43And it doesn't cost much.
59:45Yeah, you do get discounts
59:46when they play for the Browns.
59:48Yeah.
59:48Well, let's talk...
59:50Let's heat it up in here
59:51and talk about someone that I think we all like.
59:54A dog.
59:55Absolute dog.
59:57Fire.
59:58Tyler Warren.
1:00:00Tyler Warren...
1:00:01Woof, woof.
1:00:02Yeah.
1:00:02I mean, you know,
1:00:03some of these tight ends out there,
1:00:05they don't got that dog in them,
1:00:06but Tyler Warren is a yak master,
1:00:09a yards after catch machine.
1:00:12He breaks tackles.
1:00:13He's a first read in their offense.
1:00:16Coming into year two,
1:00:17I believe he's the centerpiece
1:00:19of the Colts' offense.
1:00:21You know, it's Jonathan Taylor
1:00:22as in the running game.
1:00:24But in the passing game,
1:00:25you know,
1:00:26right now the hotness
1:00:28is not Tyler Warren.
1:00:30It's Colston Loveland.
1:00:31It's the other year two tight end.
1:00:33However, statistically,
1:00:35like, the better rookie season
1:00:36was Tyler Warren.
1:00:37I know Loveland got off to a slow start
1:00:39and had the playoffs that looked great,
1:00:41but Tyler Warren was awesome,
1:00:43especially when he had Daniel Jones.
1:00:46And now coming into early in the offseason,
1:00:48it seemed like, well,
1:00:49we're not sure if Daniel Jones
1:00:50will be ready for week one,
1:00:52if he'll start the season on the pup.
1:00:53Daniel Jones is full go 11 on 11
1:00:56from day one of training camp.
1:00:58And while he might not be as mobile
1:01:00and running for his own fantasy value,
1:01:03as a passer,
1:01:04Daniel Jones for this offense,
1:01:06like Tyler Warren,
1:01:07should be even used more.
1:01:10There's all the arguments of,
1:01:12you know,
1:01:12Andy is very in love with Alec Pierce
1:01:14because you have a lot of missing targets
1:01:16from Michael Pittman.
1:01:17I like Josh Downs.
1:01:18And a lot of dollars.
1:01:20But Tyler Warren
1:01:22is better than those guys.
1:01:25The argument over on the,
1:01:27you know,
1:01:28for the Bears
1:01:29is like,
1:01:29well,
1:01:29is it Luther Burden?
1:01:31Is it Rome?
1:01:32And it's probably
1:01:33Mr. Loveland.
1:01:34Mr. Loveland.
1:01:35But I think
1:01:36if I'm competing with targets,
1:01:39Loveland and Rome
1:01:39is greater sign
1:01:41than Josh Downs
1:01:42and Alec Pierce.
1:01:44I mean,
1:01:44I agree with that.
1:01:44Yeah.
1:01:45So,
1:01:45so you have less competition
1:01:47and this is playing for a team
1:01:50in Shane Steichen
1:01:50who designs plays
1:01:52for players.
1:01:54Daniel Jones threw
1:01:55to his first read
1:01:5777% of the time.
1:01:59What do the other coaches do?
1:02:00Well,
1:02:00I'm saying that
1:02:01my point is
1:02:03Oh,
1:02:03I know what you mean.
1:02:03You're saying that
1:02:05he's going to build stuff
1:02:06specific to Tyler Warren.
1:02:08Yes.
1:02:08It just sounded funny
1:02:09like the other guys
1:02:10are drawing up plays
1:02:11for fans.
1:02:13I'm saying like
1:02:15specifically for a single player.
1:02:17Like this play design
1:02:18is to go to
1:02:19only this guy
1:02:20which you saw.
1:02:21I mean,
1:02:22by far the
1:02:23like highest
1:02:24first read targets
1:02:25was Daniel Jones last year.
1:02:26And if you look at those games
1:02:27with Daniel Jones
1:02:28and the splits
1:02:29with Tyler Warren
1:02:30up until week 13
1:02:32of his rookie season,
1:02:33he was the tight end
1:02:34three in fantasy football.
1:02:36He was great.
1:02:37He was 10.7 a game
1:02:38at tight end
1:02:39as a rookie.
1:02:40We were at the point
1:02:41where we were like
1:02:41we're going to do it again.
1:02:42Like three straight years
1:02:43of the number one.
1:02:44Because we had
1:02:45Laporta,
1:02:46Bowers,
1:02:46we were like
1:02:47Warren might be number one
1:02:48which I think
1:02:49that's the biggest question
1:02:50for people on your fire pick
1:02:51is can Warren be number one
1:02:53on the year?
1:02:54Because I think
1:02:55that that says something.
1:02:57I believe Warren
1:02:58can be in the mix
1:02:59for number one.
1:03:00The reason I maybe
1:03:01don't think he can be number one
1:03:02is not anything to do
1:03:03with Warren.
1:03:04It's Brock Bowers.
1:03:05I think Brock Bowers
1:03:06is going nuclear this year
1:03:07and no one will be able
1:03:08to catch him.
1:03:09It'll be a difference maker
1:03:10of like Travis Kelsey of old
1:03:12where he's four points
1:03:13ahead of next.
1:03:13But I think Tyler Warren
1:03:14can be number two.
1:03:15I think Tyler Warren
1:03:16can go out and get
1:03:16150 targets.
1:03:18And there's very few
1:03:19tight ends in the league.
1:03:20You're talking about Bowers.
1:03:21You're talking about
1:03:21McBride.
1:03:22And I think Tyler Warren
1:03:23is in that realm
1:03:25of like the leader
1:03:26of the offense
1:03:27could be Tyler Warren.
1:03:28Last year,
1:03:29you know,
1:03:29he's one of only
1:03:30four rookie tight ends
1:03:31with 70 catches
1:03:32and 800 yards.
1:03:34That was Bowers,
1:03:35Laporta,
1:03:35and Jeremy Shockey
1:03:36back in the day.
1:03:38And the end of the season
1:03:39was so bad
1:03:40because he's playing
1:03:41with Phillip Rivers,
1:03:42Grandpa Rivers,
1:03:43and the collapse
1:03:45of the Colts
1:03:46that were not hot
1:03:47and bothered.
1:03:47The way that
1:03:48when the Bears
1:03:49go into the playoffs
1:03:50and all of a sudden
1:03:50you see the continued
1:03:52trajectory of Loveland,
1:03:54now everyone's like,
1:03:54oh, Loveland.
1:03:55So to me,
1:03:56Tyler Warren,
1:03:56who's being drafted
1:03:57last in this elite tier,
1:03:59he is the cheapest.
1:04:01You can grab
1:04:01a first round pick,
1:04:02a second round pick,
1:04:03a third round pick.
1:04:04Please your target
1:04:04in all those drafts
1:04:05because you just take
1:04:06the lowest.
1:04:06I love grabbing him.
1:04:08I think he will be
1:04:09fire for fantasy this year.
1:04:11I don't disagree.
1:04:13What's going on back there?
1:04:16Are we doing good, Al?
1:04:17We're good.
1:04:18I was just chuckling
1:04:19at Jason saying
1:04:19I love grabbing him.
1:04:21Oh, so this is
1:04:22we're children.
1:04:23Yes.
1:04:23We're children.
1:04:24I am a child.
1:04:25The people hate children.
1:04:27See, every once in a while,
1:04:29I mean, I see you
1:04:29When Jerry gets the giggles,
1:04:30it's almost always some
1:04:32something like that
1:04:33inappropriate joke.
1:04:34I just wanted to make sure
1:04:35I was doing everything
1:04:35right over here.
1:04:36You're doing a great job.
1:04:37Clearly I was doing fine.
1:04:38No more throwing
1:04:39to the deucers.
1:04:41I'm sorry about that.
1:04:41Yeah, it hasn't worked out.
1:04:43All right.
1:04:43Top 10 quarterback rankings,
1:04:45favorite late round picks
1:04:46coming up on tomorrow's show.
1:04:48Wednesday, we got tight end rankings.
1:04:50Thursday, mock draft.
1:04:51A lot coming this week.
1:04:52Again, make sure you click subscribe.
1:04:54Follow the show.
1:04:57We're over on
1:04:58x at the FF Ballers
1:04:59Instagram.com
1:05:00slash fantasy footballers.
1:05:01Do it.
1:05:02As Jason said,
1:05:03do it.
1:05:04Do it.
1:05:05We'll catch you next time.
1:05:06Goodbye.
1:05:12Thank you for listening
1:05:13to another episode
1:05:14of the Fantasy Footballers podcast.
1:05:17Join our fantasy football community
1:05:18on jointhefoot.com
1:05:20and follow us on Twitter
1:05:22at the FF Ballers.
1:05:24The FF Ballers
1:05:24of the market
1:05:29Fire
1:05:30of the Bangled
1:05:30of the Bangles
1:05:30and the inf修 seine
1:05:31entraîn,
1:05:31or whatever!
1:05:32That's fisi
1:05:32that's right
1:05:33that one of
1:05:33e
1:05:34Understand that
1:05:34who knows
1:05:34what's coming取
1:05:36and he is one of a
1:05:37supernatural
1:05:39of the way to the
1:05:40naprawdę
1:05:40터狂
1:05:41of the sou
1:05:41of the
1:05:42fire
1:05:42of the
1:05:44butter.
1:05:45So
1:05:45go to a
1:05:46virtue
1:05:46of the
1:05:47Sabrina
1:05:48of Cornell
1:05:48influencing
1:05:49over
1:05:50the
1:05:512012
1:05:51and
1:05:52upsetting

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