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I WOULD go ALL IN this 1 Stock‼️ — Transcript

by Jeremy Lefebvre Makes Money · 7,006 words · 993 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00$5.25
0:02million. Another all-time high for the
0:04public account here today. $41,000
0:07up. Insane to break through that $5
0:09barrier yesterday and just absolutely
0:11obliterated. And then another big update
0:13today. Congratulations to everybody out
0:15there hitting all-time highs in your
0:17portfolio. And uh you should be hitting
0:19all-time highs in your portfolio. Why is
0:22this? Well, AMD with another $21,000
0:26upward move here today. That position is
0:28now up over $1.3 million in the public
0:32account. Absolutely insane move.
0:34Cheesecake Factory continues to move.
0:37That stock was up another $11,000 plus
0:39dollars here today in the public
0:40account. Now $22,000
0:43in that portfolio. That doesn't even
0:44account for all the dividends received
0:46in that position. Celsius, the
0:48wealthiest heading in the right
0:49direction. That one was up about 5% here
0:50today. Up $9,000. Up 20,000 plus now in
0:54that position in total. ELS state
0:56louder. Say it louder for the people in
0:57the back. $55,000 up on that one. Now up
1:00$7,000 plus here today. Elf on a Shelf
1:04continues to move heavy. That one was up
1:06another seven about $7,000 here today.
1:09Now up 234%
1:11on Elf on a Shelf. Congratulations, a
1:14big congratulations to the eight
1:16individuals in my private group that
1:17just hit a million dollars plus in your
1:19portfolio. And congratulations to the 16
1:21people in the private group that just
1:23hit $100,000 plus. Your awards will be
1:26arriving to your home very shortly. So,
1:28very excited for all you guys out there
1:30hitting all-time highs whether you're in
1:31my private group or not. Okay, so few
1:34subjects to get into in this one here
1:36today. First one up here, I want to
1:37react to Tom Lee. He's talking about all
1:39the ingredients are here right now for a
1:41face ripper rally. I'm looking forward
1:44to reacting that one, share my opinion
1:45and perspectives there. Then we're going
1:47to talk about the NASDAQ surge. We're
1:48going to talk about kind of the Wall
1:50Streeters and what their opinions are
1:51and what my opinions and how they differ
1:53from these Wall Streeters and and kind
1:55of how we view the market and also where
1:57the best opportunities are in the
1:58market. And then I posted this on my X
2:00page here today. My X page is always
2:02linked in the description area down
2:03there if you ever want to follow me on
2:04X. I post a lot of stuff almost every
2:06single day on X. Uh, but I posed this
2:08one said, uh, if you have to go all in
2:10one of these stocks for the next six
2:11years, which do you pick out of these?
2:14And I'm going to tell you specifically
2:16in this video here today, if you forced
2:18me to go all in, I got to put my entire
2:20portfolio in one of these stocks for the
2:22next six years, I'll tell you exactly
2:23what stock I would pick. Okay? And uh, I
2:26also tell you which maybe is the least
2:28risky of these and which one has the
2:29most upside potential over the next six
2:32years. Okay? Appreciate y'all for
2:33joining me. There's always one thing,
2:34one thing I only need from you guys. If
2:35you don't mind just smashing that like
2:36button. That's all I need from you.
2:38Okay. I appreciate you. I hope
2:39everybody's already done that. And for
2:40the people that haven't, I just need you
2:41to do that. Make sure you're subscribed
2:42to the channel. And uh other than that,
2:45folks, I just want to get rolling in
2:46this my private group. There'll be
2:47pinned comment down there. For those of
2:49you that, you know, you're a go-getter,
2:51you have goals. You want to reach seven
2:53figures, multi-se figures in your
2:54portfolio, you want to build out the
2:56right way, you want to learn from me on
2:57a much deeper level than maybe you've
2:59already learned from me. Join the
3:00private group. That will be pinned
3:01comment down there. uh fill out an
3:03application. We'll see if we can get you
3:04access in there maybe the end of this
3:06week or maybe next week. Okay. All
3:08righty, guys. So, let's get rolling.
3:09Let's react to some Wall Streeters.
3:11>> A CNBC contributor today certainly is
3:14kind of a face ripper. Not not just with
3:16stocks, with crypto as well. We'll get
3:18to that in a minute. Was there a a
3:21catalyst? I missed. What happened? You
3:25know, Brian, I think last week was
3:28maximum pain, maximum pressure because
3:30we had a Fed hiking very hawkishly and
3:34we had high oil prices and rates high.
3:36And as you know, in the last few days
3:38and over the weekend, oil cooled and
3:40rates are behaving and now we have a
3:43maximum hawkish Fed that could walk
3:45back. And so I I think it is all the
3:47ingredients for a face ripper,
3:49especially given how oversold you got.
3:50>> Is is what's what's and I'm I'm talking
3:52my book as the energy guy. I get that.
3:54like is how much of a deal is oil's
3:56decline
3:57>> because it brings bond yields down. Bond
3:59yields have been following oil. So oil
4:01goes down, bond yields goes down, stocks
4:04go up. Is that is that kind of the
4:05formula?
4:06>> Yeah, I mean it is because you know if
4:07you look at the CPI components that are
4:09still elevated like airline fairs and
4:11transport services, those are all energy
4:13related. And you know last week the JP
4:15Morgan report about how they don't even
4:17have a base case for oil kind of just
4:20told everybody oil is just high and and
4:22deal with it. And I think that was a
4:23maximum pain point too.
4:24>> And and are you factoring diesel in
4:26there too? Because when you look at the
4:28price of diesel and it was shocking for
4:29me even filling up with unled to look
4:33over and see the price for diesel above
4:36I think it was 680 when I saw it 681.
4:39>> That's shocking. And I'm hearing from
4:41completely unrelated industries, casino
4:43industries, guys are worried about what
4:45their construction costs are going to be
4:46because of the the trickle down impact
4:48from diesel.
4:49>> Yeah. And diesel, as you know, is widely
4:51used as an industrial fuel. I mean, so,
4:54uh, yeah, it's a it's a problem. And if
4:56there's shortages, you can't really
4:58substitute diesel. So, I think there are
5:01valid reasons for it why people should
5:03be concerned about energy.
5:04>> Yeah. But today, they're not. I mean,
5:06today the AI trade is back in full. And
5:08we've got Steven Bird and Morgan Stanley
5:10coming up a bit later on in the show.
5:11Let's shower
5:13>> that. There we go. You know what,
5:14Stephen Bird? I mean, hey, no, let's
5:16let's add another voice on this big
5:18market. say Jay Woods of Freedom Capital
5:20Markets, also a CNBC contributor as
5:22well, will join us on the show right
5:25now. Jay Woods, thank you very much for
5:26joining us. I know in your heart of
5:28hearts, you are a a technician. You love
5:31the charts. So, was there again some
5:33sort of a trigger, a catalyst that
5:36caused today kind of came out of
5:38nowhere?
5:39>> Yeah, it did. And it's technology. I I
5:41just wrote a piece this weekend and I
5:43called the market the ultimate tease
5:45between the bulls and the bears. this
5:477,600 level. We broke down from it last
5:49week after the Fed. We rallied back. Now
5:51we're breaking out. So, you have to look
5:53as Tom was talking about that
5:54leadership. The MAG 7 breaking out to
5:56new highs. Then you look at those stocks
5:58that can take us to a face ripping
6:00rally. Uh we've got them in play. Now,
6:04here's where I want to throw a little
6:05cold water on this face ripping rally.
6:08Uh energy, we're down one day. Nothing
6:10has changed. To your point, what has
6:12changed today? Nothing. We are risk on.
6:15There is hope the Trump cheese summit
6:17goes well. There's really nothing on the
6:19earnings front this week unless you
6:20count Cracker Barrel and General Mills.
6:22Costco is interesting, but next week is
6:25where we're going to really see where
6:26the rubber hits the road when Micron
6:28reports. Micron is a stock, one of the
6:30top 10 in the world. That has another
6:3310% to go. I think that and these
6:36semiconductors along with the software
6:38rallying together today uh will get us
6:40back to this old high around 7,800 in
6:42the S&P 500. But I don't think we're
6:45going to have enough momentum with
6:47technology alone to get us to new highs
6:50and get us to this face ripping rally.
6:52Uh it's a good rally, don't get me
6:53wrong, but not to the extent as we go
6:56into the midterms where we should be
6:58all, you know, all in in this market.
7:00>> Yeah, I mean I I'd agree with Jay. I
7:02think that there is fuel here. I think
7:04maybe where I'm going to disagree is I
7:06think sentiment is still quite bearish.
7:07You know, last week AI had a plurality
7:10of bears. you know, majority, which is
7:11basically rock bottom sentiment. And I
7:14know our clients were derisking. There's
7:16been a lot of d-risking because they
7:17don't want to be buying stocks into a
7:19>> listen, people have made a huge mistake.
7:21I mean, an absolute massive mistake.
7:23Okay, let me explain this. This entire
7:26year, the sentiment has been insanely
7:29bearish. Like insanely bearish like that
7:32AI report just comes out bearish,
7:34bearish, bearish, bearish, bearish again
7:35and again, again, like non-stop this
7:37entire year, right? Huge mistake. Like
7:40there's been so much money be made in
7:42this market, right? And you know, this
7:45has been an incredible year. And I mean,
7:47the last many years has been an
7:48incredible year. Like 23 was an
7:49incredible year. 24 was an incredible
7:51year. 25 was an incredible year. This is
7:52an incredible year, right? Uh there's
7:54lots of opportunities. And and every
7:56once in a while, you're going to get
7:57that very bearish year that really
7:58smacks you in the face, right? And who
8:00knows, maybe 27's that year, maybe 28's
8:02a year, maybe 29's that year. We'll see,
8:04right? But for the most part, you got to
8:06stay investing. You got to stay looking
8:08for opportunities. And that's why I love
8:09being an individual stock picker. I'm
8:10not just banking that, oh, the market's
8:12going to go up a bunch. I'm banking that
8:14my specific companies are going to go up
8:16a bunch. And that allows me to then pick
8:19the best of the best out of that crop of
8:21a lot of stocks in the market, right?
8:23And invest into those and then have
8:25those stocks prosper. Cuz if you look at
8:27the public count, there's been many
8:28times throughout this year where you
8:30know the NA I mean the NASDAQ was kind
8:33of has been like kangarooing for I mean
8:35like the last four to five months,
8:38right? And meanwhile the public account
8:40we just hit have kept hitting alltime
8:42high, alltime high, alltime high, right?
8:43Because a lot of other stocks that maybe
8:45hadn't previously done good came through
8:47and like started really performing well,
8:49right? While AMD was maybe taking a
8:51chill pill and Meta was taking a chill
8:53pill, right? Now AMD and Metab come back
8:55to life and you see where the public
8:56counts at now, right? So um just
8:59understand, don't fall for all the
9:02bearishness that's always out there.
9:03There's always going to be a lot of it
9:04every year. It's going to be different
9:07stuff all the time, right? And that's
9:09going to be what that's going to be. And
9:11uh I'll feel more bearish when everybody
9:13feels more bullish. I'll tell you that
9:15much. So if everybody feels all bowled
9:17up going into next year, I might flip
9:19sides. I might start turning bearish,
9:21right? But man, it's been, you know, and
9:23really the bearish sentiment has been
9:25here for years. Like the overall
9:27sentiment since, you know, halfway
9:29through 2022 has been bearish. I'll just
9:31be honest with you guys, even though
9:32we've been in a huge bull market with a
9:34huge upside,
9:35>> rising Fed. So, I think people are off
9:37sides. I I think that this is the
9:38potential to take the S&P um above 8,000
9:41before the end of the month.
9:42>> But, but you have AMD hitting
9:44>> Shoot.
9:45Whoa, whoa, whoa. I thought he was going
9:50to say to 8,000 before the end of the
9:52year, man. Just said to 8,000 before the
9:56end of the month.
9:58What a call, Tom Lee. Holy smokes. Is
10:01that ain't no dang joke.
10:02>> A 1 trillion market cap today. You've
10:05got Meta up 25% this month. Intel up 35%
10:09this month. And the last time I checked,
10:11it was up 11% today. So, what what gives
10:14you the confidence that there's still
10:16room to run here? Well, I mean, these
10:19are examples of names that people wrote
10:20off since end of June saying, "Hey,
10:22these are large names that AI trades
10:24over and then look at how explosively
10:26they moved. There's still a lot of names
10:28that have a lot of catching up to do and
10:30you know, AI stocks are still below
10:31their June high." So, I I not only do I
10:34think there's leadership coming from
10:35there, but as you know, crypto moves
10:37typically lead S&P moves by about a
10:39month and you know, crypto made a pretty
10:41big move in August and I think that's
10:42why we're seeing equities in September.
10:45Okay. So, you know, listen, this is very
10:47important. Everybody understands this.
10:48Uh AMD, right? AMD, a lot of focus is
10:52going to be on AMD. It's going to give
10:55the sentiment more positive spin, the
10:57market more positive spin. Tech stocks
11:00um and those sorts of things. Listen,
11:02AMD is its own story. AMD's got its own
11:04growth profile. It's got its own
11:06situation going on. Just because AMD is
11:08doing great right now and will likely
11:10continue to in future months doesn't
11:12mean like all the AI related stocks are
11:15going to do great. That's a very
11:17specific example, right? Then you have
11:19Meta on the other hand. Meta was just a
11:21very oversold stock. It was due for
11:23another bounce up, but don't get too
11:24excited about Meta. It hasn't even hit
11:26an all-time high yet, right? It still is
11:28under its al all-time high it hit last
11:30year. So, until that stock breaks above
11:32an all-time high, um it's just what I
11:35call a flounder where it goes up to, you
11:37know, that 750 and maybe push a little
11:39above 750. Uh if people are feeling
11:41bullish around it, right? And then if
11:43people are feeling real bearish, it
11:44moves down to that 550 or just under 550
11:46level, right? And so, it's kind of a
11:48flounder. If it breaks to 800, then
11:50we're talking. We are at all-time highs
11:52and okay, right? But until that happens,
11:54just don't get too excited about that
11:56whole situation, right? So, just little
11:58food thought. Okay. Next up here, let's
12:00talk some more tech stocks, the market
12:02opportunities, things like that. And
12:03then we'll talk about the one stock I
12:05would go all in if you force me for the
12:08next 6 years as well. But it's the
12:10NASDAQ that is up yet again. It does hit
12:12a new high today. The 10 years back
12:14towards 5%. We're watching oil, but we
12:17do want to stick on the fact that the
12:18NASDAQ is coming off its first record
12:20close since June. It has extended that
12:23today. The MAG7 ETF Joe is coming off
12:26its own intraday high for the second
12:28straight day back to the inception in
12:30April of 23. Wall Street Journal writing
12:32about it today. The MAG 7 is roaring
12:34back. You had the MAGS ETF, its first
12:38record, as we said, since May. What's
12:40going on here?
12:40>> I think what's going on here is that
12:42there has been a lot of defensive
12:44positioning over the last 30 to 45 days
12:47as yields have risen, as oil has risen,
12:50and that built momentum in the MAG 7
12:52itself. I think now as over the last
12:55several days, we're working off that
12:57risk aversion, moving more towards a
12:59riskon environment and we clearly have
13:02in our sights the all-time high for the
13:04S&P 500 from August. I think you're
13:07seeing that investors are remaining
13:09anchored to the MAG 7 because Nvidia is
13:13giving you it's rewarding you for being
13:15there. It is rewarding you for being
13:17there with Apple. And now we're
13:18extending a little bit more into some of
13:21the areas of the market that over the
13:23last 45 days have been dormant like
13:24semiconductors and the rest of the
13:26NASDAQ. Maybe it's your Marll. I think
13:29there are some people that are somewhat
13:30concerned about the concentrated nature.
13:32This is not a broad-based rally. But
13:34either way, you tell me, Scott, the max
13:36are going to keep doing what they're
13:37doing. We are going to a new all-time
13:39high.
13:40>> Wow. So, you said a couple of things
13:41that on the surface would seem to be at
13:45conflict with one another.
13:46>> Yes. risk on.
13:48>> Yes.
13:48>> And defense at the same time,
13:50>> right? So I think I I think where we
13:53were was clearly a a more more of a risk
13:57aversion sentiment as we moved into the
14:00Federal Reserve meeting last Wednesday.
14:02We bottomed out at the 100 day moving
14:04average at that point. We carried
14:07forward positioning in a lot of those
14:09defensive MAG seven. And what did we do?
14:11The riskon element. No, it's not
14:14financials. It's not the broadening out
14:15narrative of the last several days. It's
14:18back towards semiconductors memory is a
14:22new alltime high today. Oh, you have to
14:24be there.
14:24>> That's sort of the poster stock of what
14:26has been considered to be Brian at at
14:29times the most defensive of names,
14:32>> right?
14:33>> Yeah. Yes. I think what Joe was trying
14:36to say as well is that quality, the
14:40number one quality sector in the market
14:42is tech and big cap tech in particular.
14:45And I think this is a rent to own
14:48situation within the big cap areas.
14:51They're renting these names into the end
14:53of the quarter. Got seven or eight days
14:54left in the end of the quarter. This is
14:55a very important quarter. A lot of
14:56people have underperformed this quarter.
14:58So they're going to chase up the mag
15:00seven because you can rent those because
15:01of liquidity. the ownership.
15:03>> Yeah, this is a very important point we
15:05got to talk about here in understanding
15:07a little bit of the market dynamics.
15:08Okay, listen
15:10what he brings up there is very valid in
15:13regards to funds chasing the market,
15:16right? like and and this is the issue
15:19when you have a certain group of stocks
15:20that are very big to the market like
15:24have the market sore during a particular
15:26period because you could end up if
15:28you're a fund and you're not positioned
15:29into those sorts of stocks you could end
15:30up actually underperforming the S&P 500.
15:33The S&P 500 is likely your benchmark
15:35that you have to go against. If you
15:37underperform your benchmark, it looks
15:40and reflects very poorly on you because
15:41then your investors say, "Why do I need
15:43to invest with you when I could just be
15:44in an S&P 500 index fund, probably pay
15:47way less fees and do better, right?" So,
15:50what ends up happening many times is
15:52then funds end up chasing the market
15:54into year end um to try to make up for
15:58some alpha that was lost during the
16:00course of a year, right? Cuz let's say
16:02the S&P 500 is up 14% for the year and
16:04let's say your fund's only up 9%. You're
16:07like crap, man. You know, we're losing
16:09by 500 basis points here. How are we
16:11going to make this up? So what ends up
16:12happening, you usually end up those
16:15funds will many times go into the stocks
16:17that are more volatile and have been
16:19moving with momentum. And so they'll be
16:22like blah blah blah stock, Nvidia stock,
16:24whatever stock. Okay, Nvidia stock has
16:26momentum. Pile into Nvidia into year
16:28end, right? Let's move into that. And it
16:30ends up becoming this like
16:31self-fulfilling prophecy where it like
16:33pushes Nvidia more because more money
16:35comes into it which helps it you know
16:37move up even more because you got these
16:39fund managers trying to chase the
16:40benchmarks around right and so it's
16:43always a fun dynamic but that does
16:44happen quite often in the stock market
16:46>> side of it we still think is the
16:48broadening out of the market that's
16:49where you want to own you want to own
16:51these companies that have been
16:52underperforming so why why because from
16:55a
16:55>> because the market seems to be at odds
16:56with with that if you would have said
16:59that you know 3 months ago we would have
17:02said of course now we're sort of saying
17:04I don't know yields back up oil still in
17:06play geopolitics on the front page mag 7
17:09reasserting itself all of those things
17:11box checks to to theoretically be
17:14against that it's a it it's a great
17:17point but when you're when you're owning
17:19you're investing when you're owning
17:21you're looking out 6 to 12 months we
17:23believe yields will be lower
17:26>> 6 to 12 months come on man that's almost
17:28like a border online trade in all due
17:30respect 6 to 12 months. Jeez Lou weasel
17:33what and
17:35uh inflation and WTI will be lower in
17:37the next 6 to 12 months. That's where
17:39you want to position. And so we do
17:41believe that you can still the greatest
17:42thing about the Mag 7 is you can both
17:45rent them and own them from from a
17:46fundamental perspective. The rentals of
17:49the memory stocks are trouble Barney
17:51rubble in our view and and any kind of
17:53view any kind of reversal on those will
17:55significantly hurt portfolios and I
17:57don't think most people are positioned
17:58for that.
17:58>> I mean this move by the MAX 7 has really
18:01been if you look at and we we've
18:03>> oh oh yeah if you're going to chase the
18:06benchmarks listen another place they're
18:08going to go is going to be memory
18:10stocks. You know like that's been the
18:12play this year. That's one that sees
18:14major momentum and when those stocks
18:16move to the upside, they move heavy. So,
18:18that's definitely another place that if
18:19there's a chase for for performance,
18:22yeah, the memory stocks in and this
18:25DRRAM ETF is definitely the play. Show
18:28this to you multiple times over the last
18:30couple of weeks, over the last 6 months,
18:32the MAGs versus the S&P. And we'll show
18:35you that what was an underperformance
18:38certainly in the latter stages of June
18:41and into July. You see that blue line
18:44and the dips down and now the
18:47outperformance and now it's becoming
18:49Jimmy even more stark and that's why
18:52we're having this conversation today and
18:54reading you things like the NASDAQ with
18:56it closing high yesterday extending its
18:58record high today and why the money
19:00continues to flow back. That chart
19:01representative of that probably more
19:03than anything else.
19:04>> And as I listen to you set up that
19:05question Scott the thought that comes to
19:06mind is what about Microsoft? What about
19:08Alphabet? Those are two names that
19:10frankly have not performed well
19:11recently. I know Microsoft's had a bid
19:13since the spring. That's great. But
19:15recently, last few weeks, it's flatlined
19:17and Google really has done nothing. So,
19:19what would happen if those get in gear?
19:20And I think they will, by the way, both
19:22based on the fundamentals and their
19:23valuation. Um, I think this is setting
19:25up for a nice crescendo into year end.
19:28The one thing that I'm most curious
19:29about, though, beyond just the Mag 7,
19:31but related to is the chips with which
19:33both Brian and Joe spoke about. Is this
19:35the market's way of saying that all of
19:37this talk about pulling back on data
19:39center construction is just political
19:40noise? I've happened to think that for
19:42quite some time. I can't prove it and we
19:44won't know for sure until probably
19:46another month and a half ago. The
19:48>> listen listen listen listen listen.
19:50Okay. If we're talking about even the
19:52mag 7, you have a divergence between
19:54those companies as well, right? So let's
19:57say let's say Meta is trading at a $2
19:59trillion market cap, right? But
20:01meanwhile Apple is trading at a $5
20:03trillion market cap, right? It's
20:06unbelievably more valuable, right? it's
20:10um we can call it at least 150% more
20:14valuable than Meta. So that's going to
20:17matter so much more. And so what you
20:18have right now is you have the top two
20:20stocks in Mag7 definitely have the
20:22momentum, right? Apple uh because a lot
20:25of people are excited about the new
20:26$2,000 smartphone and what that could do
20:28for Apple's ASPs uh in profitability
20:31over the next few years, right? And then
20:33additionally, Nvidia's caught momentum
20:34because the semiconductor trades caught
20:36momentum again between the memory stocks
20:38uh between AMD and then also Jensen
20:40coming out and having a strong forecast
20:43for next year's numbers. So you put all
20:45that together in in that alone helps the
20:48MAG 7 tremendously. So even if stocks
20:51like Tesla or Google or Microsoft or
20:53some of these others are kind of just
20:55chilling, those ones will will make up
20:57the slack, right? Because they're just
20:58such big market caps. I mean, you know,
21:00Nvidia is way over a $5 trillion market
21:03cap, and I think Apple's around a $5
21:04trillion market cap. So, between those
21:06two companies, you got roughly $10
21:08trillion, maybe even more than $10
21:09trillion in market cap there.
21:11>> Elections are in the rearview mirror.
21:13And we hear what the newly elected
21:14politicians really say. I think what
21:16they're going to do is be very quiet on
21:18anything about data centers because
21:20that's where the growth in the economy,
21:23Texas, now they've halted data center,
21:25data center permits after having the
21:28moratorium. Now they're like, "Okay, no
21:30permits all together."
21:31>> It's a politically wise thing to do.
21:33However, when you get past the election,
21:35Scott, I wouldn't be surprised. Can't
21:36prove it, but I wouldn't be surprised if
21:38those permits are then reauthorized and
21:40rather quickly because that's how Texas
21:42is going to pay for a lot of taxes.
21:44>> So Josh, you look at the landscape and
21:46we read you all the stats about NASDAQ
21:47and what the mega caps are doing. You
21:49think what today when you look at this
21:50market?
21:53Um, the most difficult part of being a
21:56market participant is you never fully
22:00figure out what's going on or I should
22:04rephrase that, by the time you do,
22:06you're already out of date. So, one of I
22:08I don't know who said it, but one of my
22:10favorite alltime apherisms about um
22:13investing in stocks is as soon as you
22:15think you have the key to the market,
22:17they change the locks. Everybody got
22:19really invested in this broadening idea
22:22and it worked like it was the trade all
22:24summer long. We had a pause going on in
22:27the mega caps and the mag seven and uh
22:30the chip stocks fell into a 20 some odd
22:32percent uh draw down on great news and
22:36rather than panicking people just looked
22:38around and said all right well what else
22:39is working and they bought healthcare
22:41and they bought biotech and then they
22:43got involved in um some of the retail
22:46comeback stories like Target and they
22:48fell in love with some financials and it
22:50was like all right we'll do something
22:52else we'll buy our time but You thought
22:55you had the key to the market. They
22:57changed the locks. Look what's back. We
22:59have this massive counter trend move now
23:02where three stocks, the only three that
23:04really matter for this move that we're
23:06talking about, Apple, Meta, and Nvidia,
23:10have simultaneously
23:12undergone this narrative shift. The
23:14narrative shift on Nvidia is it's
23:16boring. I guess 98% earnings growth is
23:19boring. Well, that's back now at the
23:21highs, probably about to break out. and
23:23people got a little bit of a wakeup
23:25call.
23:26>> Uh, in all due respect uh to Josh Brown,
23:29I don't think he's got the call on
23:30Nvidia quite there right in my opinion.
23:33The the call on Nvidia is not boring. I
23:36think the call on Nvidia and why is that
23:38stock not just like, you know, everybody
23:40just want to own Nvidia. The main reason
23:42is you've got a stock there that people
23:46don't believe those margins are
23:48sustainable, right? Um, and when I say
23:51people, I'm talking about the big
23:52investors when they look out there,
23:54right? And they feel like we're probably
23:55in a chip bubble. And so,
23:58for that reason, people will trade it.
24:01If it sees momentum, it'll capture more
24:03momentum, right? But it's not like
24:05people are are loving the idea of buying
24:09Nvidia necessarily for the next 3, five,
24:11seven years. It's more like, you know,
24:14unless people are super just on the
24:16Nvidia like bandwagon and they've been
24:19on for a long time, you're not getting
24:20new investors to say, "Oh, I got to go
24:22buy Nvidia now, right?" Cuz we know how
24:24the semiconductor cycles go, right? And
24:27so, yeah, if Nvidia could keep putting
24:28up those sorts of growth rates or
24:29anything even close to that for, you
24:31know, the next 5 years, it would be
24:32amazing. But we know a down cycle coming
24:34in semis. It's not in 2027,
24:37but 2028 or 2029, 2030, like that's
24:40debatable, right? And so no one wants to
24:42get in front of that. And that's why
24:44Nvidia is somewhat of a capped stock
24:47right now, right? It can see momentum
24:49for a bit, but then it ends up kind of
24:51fading in the end. Narrative on Meta is
24:53they they spent 200 billion with a B on
24:57AI with nothing to show for it. Not so
25:00much anymore. the number one uh product
25:02in the app store and it's free and it's
25:05in WhatsApp and it's in um Facebook and
25:08it's being utilized by everybody out of
25:11the out of the blue.
25:12>> Whoa, whoa, whoa. JB, hold your horses.
25:14One flip and flapjacking moment. All due
25:16respect, sir, listen, not everybody's
25:18using it. From what I have seen, uh the
25:21app has got around
25:24I believe it's like 2 million downloads
25:26or something like that, right? Um
25:30like like there's nothing like it
25:32literally has nothing especially for a
25:33company of meta size and scale. Meta
25:36doesn't even like pay attention to
25:37something in
25:39like it doesn't even matter to meta
25:41until it has hundreds of millions of
25:43users but a billion users plus is
25:45usually met as like okay now we can
25:47focus on really monetizing the thing
25:48because we got a billion plus users and
25:50Zuckerberg said that in the past right
25:52or at least many many hundreds of
25:53millions of users so let's not act like
25:56this product is extremely niche right
25:58now doesn't mean it couldn't become huge
26:00over time but I just there's just so
26:03much like hype you from the investment
26:06community around this product. And I'm
26:07like, whoa, whoa, whoa. Like, maybe this
26:09could be huge. But, I mean, like, let's
26:10not get too hyped and, you know, count
26:12our chickens before they hatch. Here,
26:15you're seeing analysts go from 20 times
26:17earnings next year to 25. And, oh, by
26:19the way, they're taking their numbers up
26:21cuz if there's nobody on the planet
26:23better at monetizing AI than Meta. Wow,
26:26that's a big shift. Look at Apple. Apple
26:28doesn't understand AI. Apple's behind.
26:31Apple just fired their AI chief. They're
26:33never going to figure it out. They're
26:34going to CATCH UP. DOESN'T MATTER.
26:36They're going to be the gateway for a
26:38billion consumers to touch any AI
26:41product that you want to come up with.
26:43Look at that narrative shift. Look
26:45what's happening in the stock. So, the
26:46broadening trade was fun. That was then.
26:49This is now we're back to the earnings
26:52growth winners. Just real quick, let me
26:54give you a number on there. The mag
26:56>> Oh, man. This is probably the most I've
26:57had a push back on JB. I I also disagree
26:59with this. The reason Apple stock has
27:02been moving up in my opinion doesn't
27:04have anything to do with really the AI
27:06narrative, it's, you know, over the
27:08summer people started to get hyped about
27:10a potential $2,000 smartphone coming,
27:13right? And now that phone has come and
27:16it's gotten a lot of attention and it's
27:18probably gotten the most attention of
27:20any Apple hardware launch they've had in
27:23in a long long long time. Like a long
27:27time. And so like I would say it's
27:30probably gotten the most attention I've
27:31seen from an Apple hardware launch
27:33probably since iPhone 6 came out. If I
27:36recall, iPhone 6 was when they finally
27:38did a bigger iPhone. Uh which was, you
27:40know, a competitive pressure they had
27:42for years versus Samsung and a lot of
27:43people were buying Samsung's cuz they
27:45want a bigger screen. Then Apple finally
27:47did it. That was like crazy hype. Um you
27:49know, and I really haven't seen that
27:51much hype around an iPhone probably
27:52since that time. And um you know, it's
27:56got the hype and excitement. That's why
27:58Apple stocks been moving up. Let's just
28:00be very crystal clear about that.
28:01Nothing really to do with AI.
28:03>> Evan, um, blended expected operating
28:06earnings as a as a percentage of
28:08everything that we think is coming is so
28:11big that it's almost become the entire
28:13story. The S&P 500's blended forward
28:16operating margin is 17%. And nearly half
28:20of that is going to come from the Max
28:227s. If you strip that out, it goes to 14
28:251.5%. The forward PE on the Max 7 is 23
28:29times earnings. Not wildly, egregiously
28:32overvalued when you understand how
28:34critical these stocks are to 2027.
28:38>> Yeah, I I agree. Uh definitely not uh
28:40super overvalued or anything like that.
28:42Okay, next up here. So, I posted this on
28:45my X page. Once again, if you want to
28:46follow me on X, if you use that platform
28:48at all, uh that will be the linked in
28:51the description area down there. as I
28:52do. I always have that in my Instagram,
28:54always linked in the description area of
28:56all my videos. Okay. Uh, you have to go
28:58all in on one of these stocks for the
28:59next six years. Which do you pick? So,
29:01me personally,
29:04you might think AMD is my pick. It's
29:07actually not. If I was picking for the
29:08next six months,
29:10I'd probably pick AMD. If I'm If you
29:13told me six months, I'm probably picking
29:14AMD. But I'm actually not picking them
29:16for the next six years. And that doesn't
29:18mean I think AMD is doomed over the next
29:20six years or anything like that. There's
29:22just I think I got better opportunities
29:24out of these six stocks for the next six
29:26years. Okay. Uh the one that I think has
29:29the most potential upside, this is still
29:31not the stock I would pick,
29:34but the stock out of these six that I
29:36think has the most upside potential over
29:38the next six years. You know which one
29:40I'm going to pick?
29:42Celsius. The wealthiest. If you force me
29:44to pick a stock that has the most
29:46upside, I would say Celsius over the
29:48next six years. uh when I think about
29:50what they could do with the Celsius
29:51brand, what they could do with the Alani
29:53brand, uh just those two brands alone
29:55and then expansion around the United
29:56States international into more SKs into
29:59more product offerings um into more
30:01doors, the margin opportunity there, the
30:04earnings per share opportunity there
30:05over the next number of years like
30:07Celsius has the biggest opportunity. But
30:11if you told me I had to go all in one of
30:14those six stocks, the stock I would go
30:16all in personally,
30:18Elf on a Shelf, ELF. ELF represents a
30:22really attractive riskreward profile. So
30:25although I think Celsius has more upside
30:27potential, I think Celsius also comes
30:29with more risk, right? Like what if they
30:31what if over the next six years there's
30:33like some massive move away from
30:35caffeine or energy drinks or something
30:37like that, right?
30:38um like gosh that would really damage
30:40Celsius and like what if they really
30:43really hurt the Celsius brand somehow,
30:45right? So I got to take that into
30:48account. ELF has multiple brands that
30:52are really strong. They have the ELF
30:54brand. They obviously have um Notorium.
30:57They also have Road, right? So ELF is
31:01just very well positioned as far as
31:02having multiple brands and multiple uh
31:06different companies that they can
31:07continue to broaden out to. And they're
31:10a company that's very opportunistic when
31:12it comes to acquisitions. And when I
31:15think about their opportunity to
31:16continue to expand in the United States,
31:18they're actually they they don't have
31:20enough SKS in many of these stores. They
31:22their sellrough is so strong, they
31:24actually need to have more and more SKs.
31:26In a lot of these stores, their shelf
31:27space needs to actually widen. uh for
31:30ELF overall and almost every single
31:31major retailer out there from my
31:33understanding. And then when I think
31:35about the international expansion
31:36opportunity for ELF over the coming
31:38years and then I think about the margin
31:39opportunity over the coming years and
31:41when I think about the earnings per
31:42share opportunity over the coming years
31:43and uh I think it's just a real clean
31:47financial setup for that company as
31:48well. So that's the one if you told me I
31:51got to go all in one for the next six
31:52years I'm picking L right. Cheesecake
31:55Factory that's a really solid one for
31:57the next six years. I just don't think
31:58it has as much upside. Like Cake's
32:01pulled forward a lot of gains, right?
32:02The stock's 100 plus now at this point
32:04in time. So, I look at ELF as just
32:06having more upside than Cake, right? Uh
32:09Estee Lauder, I think it's just a really
32:12solid dividend value stock. Uh that's
32:15back on the right track. So, I really
32:16like Estee Lauder as well. And then
32:18Honest, I would say I really like that
32:21one as well. Right, Small Cap. Now you
32:22might say, okay, if I think that one has
32:24the best riskreward over the next six
32:26years, why is it the smallest position
32:28out of these stocks um in the public
32:30account? And the reason for that is ELF
32:32is a very significant position in in
32:35many of my private portfolios. And so I
32:39already have so much invested into ELF
32:41in some private portfolios that I feel
32:44comfortable with kind of the position
32:46sizing I have in the public account.
32:47Like I would like it to be a little
32:48bigger, but it's not like I feel
32:50offsides. I mean, there's one portfolio
32:52alone, um, I think I have three or
32:54$400,000 just in ELF in one of my
32:57private portfolios, right? And, uh, I
33:00own ELF in almost every single private
33:02portfolio I have. And so, just
33:04understand like I'm always accounting
33:05for also like how much I have in all of
33:08my portfolios in a particular stock. And
33:11so, ELF is a large large uh, position
33:14for me. It's certainly not my biggest
33:15and it certainly comes with risk, but
33:17it's it's a significant position, right?
33:19When we look at something like an AMD,
33:21yeah, I mean AMD sets up very well, but
33:23I just worry that we're in a
33:25semiconductor, I would call, kind of
33:27bubble for the next couple years here.
33:29And I I do believe there's going to be a
33:32massive slowdown that really starts to
33:34hit in 2028.
33:36And
33:37the, you know, I think in that
33:40environment, I think AMD is still going
33:42to put up great numbers in 28 and 29,
33:44but it's going to pull down all the
33:46semiconductor stocks. In my personal
33:48opinion, it's going to hurt all of them,
33:50right? Because all these stocks also
33:51trade in like uh, you know, kind of
33:53these baskets. And so AMD might get hit
33:55less when that down cycle starts than
33:57some of the others, but I still see it
34:00getting hit, right? Or kind of
34:01stagnating for several years. And so
34:04that's just something to kind of keep in
34:06mind there. But yeah, that's that's what
34:08I would pick there. Okay. Hope you guys
34:09really enjoyed today's video. I
34:10appreciate you all for joining me. As
34:11always, hey, if you really enjoy
34:13learning from me and you want to learn
34:14on a much deeper level, apply join my
34:15private group. I just did a full
34:17in-depth video for the private group
34:19here today uh that really went into a
34:21very very important subject. And so
34:23yeah, if you enjoy learning from my
34:25videos, you want to learn from me
34:26deeper, join the private group. There'll
34:27be pinned comment down there to apply to
34:29join us in there. And uh let's get you
34:30up to the highest level possible. All
34:31righty, guys. Much love and have a great

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