I've Seen HUNDREDS of Poker Players Fail Because of This — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:00I'm going to show you a hand that I
2. 0:02played very badly.
3. 0:05And the way I played it badly
4. 0:07is the kind of thing that if you do it
5. 0:09all the time, it destroys your poker
6. 0:10career. Unfortunately, I don't make
7. 0:13mistakes like this that often.
8. 0:16But I've taught over 600 one-to-one
9. 0:18students, conservative estimate there.
10. 0:21And I've been a poker coach for 16
11. 0:22years, and I've seen the difference
12. 0:25between those who succeed
13. 0:27and those who fail.
14. 0:28And one of the biggest differences, if
15. 0:29not the biggest differences, is how you
16. 0:32handle a hand like this with pocket
17. 0:34queens I played recently
18. 0:37on a regular basis.
19. 0:38Do you make the mistake that I made on
20. 0:40the river frequently?
21. 0:42Or do you keep it together and find the
22. 0:44right thought process? This will make or
23. 0:47break your poker career. Let's have a
24. 0:49look at the action and how we got to
25. 0:51this very important river spot. So, we
26. 0:53have the pocket queens in the hijack
27. 0:55here, and we're going to play a pot
28. 0:56against this reg in the cutoff. We
29. 0:58decide to open the hand, and our
30. 0:59opponent is going to three-bet us in
31. 1:01just a second. I'm using the
32. 1:03AI-generated replayer here because I'm
33. 1:05trying to get around these pesky YouTube
34. 1:07age restrictions that are suppressing
35. 1:09videos, stopping poker creators being
36. 1:11able to reach their full audience by
37. 1:13assigning restrictions on things that
38. 1:15remotely resemble online gaming or
39. 1:17gambling. Hopefully, this here doesn't
40. 1:20resemble that enough to get restricted,
41. 1:22but we'll see. We'll just keep pushing
42. 1:23the boundaries and see where the robot
43. 1:25wants to intervene. So, you can call or
44. 1:27you can four-bet here with queens.
45. 1:29You'll see here I put a GTO Wizard thing
46. 1:31on the screen just showing that it is
47. 1:33indifferent. That doesn't mean that
48. 1:34you're completely indifferent in real
49. 1:36life. It may be better to four-bet here
50. 1:38if your opponent is a weak recreational
51. 1:40with a wide three-bet range. They're
52. 1:41going to flat too wide. They're going to
53. 1:43play badly. If your opponent's really
54. 1:45natty, you might just want to always
55. 1:46call. And against the reg at 100 Russian
56. 1:49cash where I was generating this
57. 1:51footage, you can sort of do whatever you
58. 1:53want. I don't think it's a big deal. If
59. 1:55you're not studied in four-bet pots,
60. 1:56though, it's not a terrible idea to
61. 1:58avoid some of these situations until
62. 2:00you've had a look. It's pretty easy to
63. 2:02go very wrong if you don't know what
64. 2:03you're doing. So, we move on to the flop
65. 2:05of 10 10 3. Villain does have some
66. 2:08combos of suited 10x here, not really
67. 2:10any offsuit 10x. They're going to have
68. 2:11something like ace-10 suited, king-10
69. 2:13suited, queen-10, and jack-10 suited,
70. 2:15which is about eight combos total, maybe
71. 2:1610 9 to take it up to 10 combos. Threes
72. 2:19is probably not there. Then, they've got
73. 2:20aces and kings that beat us. So, that's
74. 2:22something like 20, 22 combos that beat
75. 2:24us here. Our hand is very high equity.
76. 2:27Ace-king does have redraw against us,
77. 2:29and apart from that, we're just in great
78. 2:31shape, and villain is probably going to
79. 2:33be betting most of their range, if not
80. 2:35all of their range. It's a very good
81. 2:36board for them. The 10 is smacking them
82. 2:38a lot harder than it smacks us, and a
83. 2:40lot of our suited broadways and lower
84. 2:42pocket pairs are just not thriving in
85. 2:44this spot. So, they can bet all of their
86. 2:46range with this sizing here. They can go
87. 2:48big bet with everything in a spot like
88. 2:50this if they really want to, and I think
89. 2:51that's what a lot of people are in fact
90. 2:53doing. So, we have a really easy call
91. 2:55spot. Raising is a bit weird here
92. 2:56because it's somewhat of a way ahead,
93. 2:58way behind situation, and so in those
94. 3:00spots, you generally just want to call.
95. 3:02That's a classic saying from like 2011,
96. 3:04by the way.
97. 3:06We check the turn, and villain bets
98. 3:07again. They're polarizing now. They're
99. 3:08basically saying that they either have
100. 3:10jacks or the other one combo of queens,
101. 3:12or they can beat queens, and then they
102. 3:14obviously have a lot of bluffs. The
103. 3:15thing about queens is it's one of the
104. 3:20worst hands in a sense, like in a
105. 3:22blocker sense. Obviously, we're not
106. 3:24folding here. We're still
107. 3:26beating villain's value. I think they
108. 3:28can have jacks. They can have the other
109. 3:30combo of queens. I think we're always
110. 3:32calling because villain's redraw as well
111. 3:34is not very high against this hand.
112. 3:36Like, they're only going to have two
113. 3:37overcards here when they have ace-king.
114. 3:39A lot of people are going to check
115. 3:40specifically ace-king on the turn. So,
116. 3:42this is still a call, barely, but it's
117. 3:44really not that great a spot. And in a
118. 3:46three-bet pot, when you face a second
119. 3:48barrel in one of these early position
120. 3:50spots, villain is mostly saying they
121. 3:52have kings plus for value in these
122. 3:53situations, maybe trip 10. So, we do
123. 3:55call here. You can see from the wizard
124. 3:57output, always look at the EV. It isn't
125. 3:59the case that we can fold yet. We can
126. 4:01jam here if we really want to, but for
127. 4:03the most part, the solver is just
128. 4:05playing call. I was shocked to see that
129. 4:06certain combos of queens were actually
130. 4:08mixing fold, like queens with a spade
131. 4:10when I looked at this, which makes some
132. 4:11sense. You're bluffing more of the
133. 4:12You're blocking, sorry, more of the
134. 4:13bluffing range, but yeah, it's wild,
135. 4:15isn't it, that some combos of queens are
136. 4:17actually indifferent here. Now, we come
137. 4:18to the river, which is the spot that
138. 4:19will make or break your poker career.
139. 4:21Most people get this wrong as I did in
140. 4:23game. Villain goes all in. The queens,
141. 4:25by and large, have actually negated the
142. 4:27suits here cuz it gets very solver
143. 4:28specific and meta and weird. I don't
144. 4:31want us to get lost on the exact
145. 4:33combination of queens we have here, but
146. 4:35queens, by and large, is an indifferent
147. 4:37hand on the river, as we'd expect from a
148. 4:40bluff catcher. When I actually look at
149. 4:42this against a human, there are a few
150. 4:43things I don't like about my two cards
151. 4:45here. I think people will give up spades
152. 4:47pretty frequently, even when solvers
153. 4:49don't. There are some spots solvers will
154. 4:51give up with flush draws when they think
155. 4:53it's a big part of your range. If it's
156. 4:54not a big part of your range, as is the
157. 4:56case here, they'll keep blasting with
158. 4:57their flush draw and they'll triple
159. 4:58barrel. And a solver does that sometimes
160. 5:00in this spot. So, the fact that we
161. 5:02actually remove the king queen of clubs,
162. 5:05king queen of hearts, ace queen of
163. 5:06clubs, ace queen of hearts, ace queen
164. 5:08offsuit, no spade from the deck, I think
165. 5:10those are the hands people are actually
166. 5:11going to bluff here if they're bluffing
167. 5:13at all. I also just don't think like a
168. 5:15below 500 NL, 1K NL, I don't think many
169. 5:18regs are finding this spot to to triple
170. 5:21in. Like some of them are, sure. They
171. 5:23just got ace jacks as the tier and they
172. 5:24just decide to fire the third barrel.
173. 5:26But, there's a lot of hoops they've had
174. 5:27to jump through to do that. They have to
175. 5:30actually three-bet the hand preflop
176. 5:31instead of cold calling. They have to
177. 5:33c-bet the flop big, then they have to
178. 5:35bet the turn as well, then they have to
179. 5:36decide not to give up the river. So,
180. 5:38that's a lot of things they have to do
181. 5:39to be bluffing here. In my mind, we have
182. 5:42worse blockers than the solver thinks
183. 5:43against the pool's actual bluffing range
184. 5:45here, and it's probably also an under
185. 5:48bluff spot. So, in game
186. 5:50here's what happened to me. My thought
187. 5:53process was cloudy. I was playing four
188. 5:54tables. I was setting up some recording.
189. 5:56I was thinking about how I was going to
190. 5:58do the video. My focus was not on
191. 6:00playing this hand well, which is, you
192. 6:02know, maybe somewhat forgivable for a
193. 6:04content creator that's trying to get
194. 6:05content, but not really. But for you, a
195. 6:07poker player who's trying to make it in
196. 6:09this game as your profession or as your
197. 6:12massive hobby that's funding holiday or
198. 6:15just whatever a poker whatever space it
199. 6:17occupies in your life, you owe it to
200. 6:19yourself to bring your best self to the
201. 6:21table. And where poker careers go
202. 6:23downhill really fast is that people make
203. 6:26this call you're about to see me make
204. 6:28here every single time they're in this
205. 6:30spot, and they make the call for a
206. 6:32couple of reasons. We'll look at
207. 6:33villain's cards in just a second. I'll
208. 6:35show you what he had this time.
209. 6:36They make this call because one, they
210. 6:38feel like when they have queens, they
211. 6:40can't fold. They've been dealt a big
212. 6:42hand. It's a low board. They look at the
213. 6:44absolute hand strength of queens. They
214. 6:46do not assess deeply or carefully enough
215. 6:49what's happening at the point where
216. 6:50their their villain triples the river
217. 6:52here. They shouldn't have jacks anymore
218. 6:54in this spot. Jacks is way too thin to
219. 6:56shove the river with here because we're
220. 6:57just not meant to call enough worse
221. 6:59hands, and we do still have the odd 10,
222. 7:01you know, eights that's obviously going
223. 7:03to slow play turn, and then something
224. 7:05like queens. So, jacks is just way way
225. 7:07too thin for villain to shove the the
226. 7:08river with here. I know that, but in
227. 7:11game, there's something about two queens
228. 7:13where I'm just I'm poisoned, frankly.
229. 7:15I'm just intoxicated by having two
230. 7:17queens, and I've been around this game
231. 7:19long enough to to know better. I'm
232. 7:21usually quite good at saying my hand is
233. 7:22merely a catcher, but because queens is
234. 7:24so rarely a bluff catcher on the river
235. 7:26in a three bet pot, I think it's just
236. 7:28one of those pattern lapses. You just
237. 7:30fall back on a more general pattern, and
238. 7:33you say I have queens, I can't fold.
239. 7:34It's my hand is too good. I can't fold.
240. 7:36I don't think he's bluffing, but I can't
241. 7:37fold. And that's a nonsense thought
242. 7:38process, right? How often do you find
243. 7:40yourself doing that at the tables? The
244. 7:42other reason for which people don't want
245. 7:44to fold here is that as the pot gets
246. 7:46big, and this is the most important
247. 7:48point actually, their brain switches
248. 7:50off. You ever find that in a big pot
249. 7:53your normal thinking rational brain just
250. 7:55shuts down as soon as you feel
251. 7:56threatened, and instead this lizard
252. 7:58brain that sees a shadowy menacing
253. 8:01figure of your villain and just expects
254. 8:03that to be a big bad bully taking
255. 8:05advantage of you. That happens to me
256. 8:07sometimes, too. I don't know if it
257. 8:08happened in this hand, but I might
258. 8:09actually just have the vague idea that
259. 8:12villain is trying to take advantage of
260. 8:13me and run me over, and it's it's a
261. 8:15bizarre thought process to have because
262. 8:16when you zoom out and you're objective
263. 8:18about this, you can see that the hand is
264. 8:20at best indifferent in theory, and like
265. 8:22actually against a human your blockers
266. 8:24aren't great. They're going to give up
267. 8:25spades. You can see that they're going
268. 8:27to be under bluffing as well because
269. 8:28it's just not that appetizing a
270. 8:29situation. So, without the read that
271. 8:31this is indeed like a big bad bully mass
272. 8:34data using, you know, going to triple
273. 8:36you in any spot where I don't think this
274. 8:38is a great spot, by the way, and and
275. 8:40mass data to triple the specific um
276. 8:42early position three-bet pot. But, like
277. 8:44people generally don't fit that bill
278. 8:46anyway, right? But, your lizard brain
279. 8:48when your rational mind shuts down, it's
280. 8:50going to take over and it's just going
281. 8:51to see this person that's trying to take
282. 8:53your stuff that's got a big club and
283. 8:54they're they're bullying you, you know,
284. 8:55they're trying to take your lunch money,
285. 8:56and it's a very normal for us to see
286. 8:59that villain as our villain as soon as
287. 9:02our rational brain switches off. So, to
288. 9:04reiterate, the two things people do that
289. 9:06stop them making very important folds
290. 9:09when their hand is quite good, the most
291. 9:11important thing you can do right now in
292. 9:12poker to improve your results is make
293. 9:15important folds when your hand looks
294. 9:17good, but isn't.
295. 9:18The two things that they do is they see
296. 9:20a big bad bully and they look too much
297. 9:22to their overall general pattern
298. 9:25absolute hand strength. I did these
299. 9:27things in varying degrees here. I think
300. 9:28mostly just the general pattern of
301. 9:30queens blinded me. Ended up making this
302. 9:32call. I feel like this hand cuz it's a
303. 9:33call I would almost never make.
304. 9:35Honestly, this is a call that I just
305. 9:37know better than to make this. I've made
306. 9:39this fold umpteen times in my poker
307. 9:41career. I tell my students to make this
308. 9:43fold every single time they bring me
309. 9:44this hand, and then I'm still capable of
310. 9:46like succumbing to the same patterns
311. 9:48that you guys succumb to on a regular
312. 9:50basis. It's just being human. So, this
313. 9:54hand is just one example, but it's an
314. 9:56example that hopefully completely
315. 9:59encapsulates the biggest reason that
316. 10:02you're stuck, that you're losing at
317. 10:04poker.
318. 10:05That is the in-game reason. There's an
319. 10:07out-of-game reason, too, which is just
320. 10:09simply that you don't have enough poker
321. 10:11knowledge, and as you get more poker
322. 10:12knowledge, your mental game leaks do
323. 10:14tend to clear up because you become more
324. 10:16confident. You believe in yourself a lot
325. 10:18more. If you want to see what we do at
326. 10:20Carrot Corner, we teach mainly cash game
327. 10:22poker in a very serious, rigorous,
328. 10:24academic way. We have structured
329. 10:26pathways and courses. We have tiers on
330. 10:28our website. You can check out the free
331. 10:30one called the Starter Kit at
332. 10:32carrotcorner.com, and you can watch our
333. 10:33three videos to find and diag- -nose and
334. 10:35start fixing your biggest leak for free.
335. 10:37We'll send you a little 1,000 hand
336. 10:39mission to give you something productive
337. 10:41to do on your game. But, do go away and
338. 10:44think about how often you make that
339. 10:46mistake I made in this hand. And, yeah,
340. 10:48I can't believe I showed you that. I'm
341. 10:50mortified about that river call. It's a
342. 10:51really terrible call I would never
343. 10:53normally make, but I think it's
344. 10:54important to to show you that if I can
345. 10:56make this call, even though I usually
346. 10:58fold here, so many of you are going to
347. 11:00make this call every time or half the
348. 11:01time or almost every time. All right,
349. 11:03guys, get out of here. Let me know what
350. 11:04you think of the video, and I'll see you
351. 11:06next time. Bye for now.