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I've seen Hundreds of Poker Graphs. Here's What Each One Means. — Transcript

by Carrot Corner - Poker Education · 4,405 words · 670 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00I've seen over 600 real poker graphs in
0:02my 16-year poker coaching career. I've
0:05seen students with graphs of all shapes
0:08and sizes. This one on your screen is
0:10the most common one, but we're going to
0:11go over five other ones today as well.
0:13So, keep watching until we get to your
0:14graph. I'm going to explain what all of
0:17these mean and how to improve them. If
0:19this is your graph, you are in the
0:20majority of struggling poker players
0:22with a downward red line, upward blue
0:23line, and losing green line.
0:26Rake is something like eight or nine or
0:2810 or 4,000 BB per 100 if you play on
0:31Ignition site, and it's it's very
0:33difficult to win
0:35in poker because you don't just have to
0:36be better than the competition, you have
0:38to be rake plus X better than the
0:40competition to have win rate X, and that
0:42is not easy at all. So, it's not that
0:44these players who are very common
0:47are terrible at cards. They're actually
0:49better than most people in their games,
0:50but they're not better by enough.
0:52They're not pulverizing the games enough
0:54to win post-rake. So, if you have this
0:56graph, first off, don't feel bad. It
0:58doesn't mean you're below average in
1:00your game. It just means you're not
1:01doing enough stuff. You're not making
1:02enough stuff happen. Most importantly,
1:05you're not scavenging enough. You're not
1:07winning enough pots. There's a stat you
1:10can find in your poker tracker if you
1:12use PT4 or Holdem Manager or whatever
1:14called WWSF. That's one win soft flop.
1:17And graphs like this are usually
1:19accompanied by a one win soft flop of 46
1:21or 47. Some cases even 44 or 45.
1:26This is a stat you want to see around 50
1:28to 52
1:30ideally. So, if you can check that out,
1:31have a look at that. What it comes down
1:33to is picking up the pots that no one
1:35wants and using using well-timed
1:38aggression to make people fold in
1:41situations where they kind of just shrug
1:43and move on with their life, you know?
1:44We're not talking about having to triple
1:47barrel or check-raise or river all-in or
1:48use a 4x pot overbet. Yes, those things
1:51are going to give you a better red line.
1:53You might do them irresponsibly and
1:54terribly. It might decimate your blue
1:55line in the process.
1:57What we're talking about today
1:59is just picking up pots left, right, and
2:01center. There's something I like to do
2:02in a multi-way pot as an example.
2:04When it gets to the turn and everybody
2:06has made a true range capping check, you
2:09know, they've checked in a way that
2:11isn't just procedurally checking to an
2:13aggressor on the flop, your fold equity
2:15in that spot is through the roof. And
2:17there's so many situations if you're
2:19playing low stakes
2:21where even heads-up, which is meant to
2:22be a more adversarial context, your
2:25opponents are check folding
2:28all the time. If small blind checks to
2:30you and you play 10 NL, stabbing the
2:33flop with any two cards is absolutely
2:35printing money. But how often do you
2:37just check down and lose with air? Do
2:39you know the theoretically mandatory
2:41bluffs that we talk about in the Carrot
2:42Poker School? If you get silver carrot
2:44and you embark on grade one of that, you
2:46will see that there are spots that are
2:48mandatory to bluff. All bluffs can be
2:50separated into optional, mandatory, and
2:53prohibited in theory. And that's before
2:56you even get to the exploitative side of
2:57things. So, to fix this graph, you need
2:59to win way more small and medium pots.
3:01You need to scavenge more. You need to
3:03increase your awareness of what is a
3:05mandatory bluff. It's basically a spot
3:07where your range is strong and your hand
3:09is weak, particularly on the river. You
3:11can counter spots like that. You
3:12actually have to bluff in theory. It's
3:14not merely optional. Your opponents are
3:17over folding naturally and theoretically
3:19when they're at a range disadvantage.
3:21So, look out for that. And then
3:22exploitatively, just all of the pots
3:23that no one wants. All of the range
3:25capping checks. Just attack capped
3:27ranges. Even if you feel a bit naughty
3:29doing it. Even if you feel a little bit
3:32sort of self-conscious, like we talked
3:34about in a recent video about bluffing,
3:36just bluff into capped ranges and just
3:37track your fold equity and your red line
3:39over time and trust the process. Do it
3:42for a few weeks. Don't worry about it
3:44and then look at your graph. Don't shy
3:46away every time your bluffs get called.
3:48A lot of these players that have this
3:49graph are just simply not comfortable
3:52bluffing. They don't like it. It makes
3:54them feel self-conscious. It makes their
3:56skin crawl. They need to have a very
3:58good comfort blanket like a draw to
4:00bluff or extreme evidence that their
4:02opponent is weak. There's not enough
4:04ambition here. So, this is the most
4:06common graph. So, I've spent 4 minutes
4:08on it. I'm not going to spend 4 minutes
4:09on all the others, but let's get on to
4:11graph number two.
4:13So, this graph is very similar, but this
4:17is like a blue lining winning reg rather
4:19than a a stuck reg. What this player is
4:22doing a bit better is that they know the
4:24mandatory bluffs, right? So,
4:25theoretically, they know where they have
4:27to bluff. They're probably good at
4:29exploiting some simple situations like
4:31the ones we talk about in cash injection
4:32will get you started. That's 10
4:34situations part of Silver Carrot, by the
4:36way, again, that show you where the
4:38population is grossly unbalanced. So,
4:41it's low-hanging fruit in the sense that
4:43if you learn the spots where people are
4:44very unbalanced, and you exploit them
4:46there first, you just add a lot to your
4:48red line and win rate without having to
4:50care about where people are a little bit
4:52unbalanced, right? You can get to that
4:53later. You want to learn the the big
4:55head lining spots for printing red line
4:57first.
4:58So, this student is doing really well.
5:00They're very good at value betting.
5:01They're very good at folding. Another
5:03thing this student's going to be doing
5:04better than the last one is that their
5:06blue line is actually better. You might
5:08not notice that. Your attention might
5:09just go to the less losing red line, but
5:11this blue line is better, too, which
5:13indicates that this student's more
5:15advanced. They're not getting stacked by
5:17reaching the river with a hand that
5:19looks good and feels good in objective
5:21terms, but it's actually just quite bad.
5:23And they're making big folds when their
5:24relative hand strength is way below
5:27their absolute hand strength. And that
5:29is important.
5:31Hopefully, I'm doing okay on this video,
5:32by the way. I'm just recovering from
5:34like a stomach bug and norovirus that
5:36struck the family. So, if I sound a bit
5:38weird or lacking in energy, that's why.
5:42Back on the grind though, talking about
5:43graphs. Here I am. If you want to get
5:46started for free at Carrot Corner, by
5:47the way, if you're not yet ready for
5:49silver or that stuff I talked about, we
5:50have a free starter kit that's basically
5:52three videos, 10 minutes long each, to
5:54help you diagnose your biggest leak.
5:56These last two graphs we looked at are
5:57students with what we call green leaks.
5:59So, that's under-investing, not bluffing
6:01enough, not putting enough money into
6:02the pot, missing out on the good stuff,
6:04basically. So, this student here is
6:06better at value betting than the last
6:08one, better at folding than the last
6:10one, and scavenges more and wins more
6:12pots, fueling the red line. There's
6:14nothing wrong with this distribution,
6:15guys. You can run a winning blue line,
6:18losing red line distribution, but you
6:20need to do it in a way where you're
6:22accurate in both aspects of the game,
6:24both with value betting and with
6:26bluffing.
6:27And the problem with this previous
6:29student is their red line's losing way,
6:31way more. Their blue line's not winning
6:32as as much if you compare these two
6:34graphs.
6:35This student here is
6:37averaging red line by just letting
6:39things go to showdown. They're the very
6:41high went to showdown. This student here
6:42will have a much lower went to showdown
6:44stat. If you look that one up in PT4,
6:46your went to showdown should be not
6:48sprawling upwards into the the mid-30s.
6:51That would be bad if it's at like 34 or
6:5336, generally.
6:55So, yeah. You've just got to fold a lot
6:56in games where people under-bluff in big
6:59pots, and you've got to scavenge a lot
7:00in games where people over-fold in small
7:02pots. And that is micro stakes and low
7:04stakes poker in a nutshell.
7:07>> [snorts]
7:07>> This graph is
7:10kind of the
7:12stereotypical
7:14tilted, gambly, can't fold
7:17Davis Life student. I've had quite a lot
7:19of these over the years.
7:21If this is your graph, this is not good
7:23news. I'm sorry. This is like you're
7:24going to the doctor, and the doctor is
7:25saying,
7:26"Okay, would you just take a seat for me
7:28over there? Just just
7:30Okay.
7:32Would you like to just, you know, come
7:33into this room and we'll just we'll just
7:34have a chat about the test results?"
7:37That's very much what's going on here.
7:38Um
7:40Yeah, you're really up against it. You
7:42are defaulting to not folding in big
7:44pots when your opponents have really
7:45strong ranges. You're making random bets
7:48that don't serve any real purpose.
7:50You're over investing.
7:52You don't lose much money not at
7:54showdown because frankly you go to
7:55showdown all the time or it's your
7:56opponent that folds.
7:58And you are very far from a winning
8:01player if you have this graph shape.
8:03The straight up red line and even worse
8:05blue line
8:07is uncurable sometimes because it comes
8:09from mental game afflictions that are
8:11just too great. That when someone rocks
8:14up on my doorstep for coaching with a
8:15scruff,
8:17I'll say, "Okay, you need to just start
8:18pressing the fold button all the time."
8:20And they'll be like, "Really?" I'll be
8:22like, "Yeah, if you're in doubt, you
8:23just need to hit the fold button for
8:24like a solid month. You need to cure
8:26yourself of this."
8:27And you know, we'll we'll review spots
8:29and I can get them to see that
8:31the calls and raises and spew turn shots
8:33they're making, the polarization
8:35mistakes they're making as well, you
8:36know. Polarization mistakes the term we
8:38use for
8:40over investing with a medium strength
8:41hand.
8:42But the player with a scruff will make
8:43up all kinds of reasons to do that,
8:45right? They'll be like, "I've got to bet
8:46the turn to find out where I'm at. I've
8:48got to rep the king." They'll just come
8:50up with reasons to invest money. They
8:51can't help themselves.
8:53If you have this graph, um
8:56probably
8:57a technical poker education will help in
9:00the sense it will show you where you can
9:02and can't invest money and which of your
9:04mistakes are actually really egregious.
9:07And it will point those out. But there
9:09may also be some mental game work just
9:11completely necessary here
9:13above and beyond that. If you have this
9:14graph, there's a very reasonable chance
9:16that you're the victim type player we
9:18talked about in the last video where we
9:19talked about three player types I've met
9:21and encountered many times in my
9:23coaching career that I've not really
9:25been able to help.
9:26And the victim player is one for whom
9:29folding just feels inaccessible,
9:31especially when it gets adversarial or
9:34it's a reg with an 11% three bet and you
9:36just
9:37you can just see these players
9:39constantly feeling like they're being
9:41bullied and like avoiding being bullied
9:43is more important to them
9:45than actually doing the right thing. And
9:47that's what's going on in this graph.
9:48You will not bully this guy. No chance.
9:50But this guy won't win either. So this
9:52one is not untreatable, but it requires
9:55a dramatic mind set shift as well as
9:57some
9:58proper poker education to help you see
10:00the true value of hands and the reasons
10:02for betting.
10:03We cover this
10:05right away in start to get and then in a
10:06major way in bronze carrot, the first
10:08pay tier.
10:09The carrot corner and if you don't know
10:11why you're betting
10:12you're very likely to run a graph like
10:14this because you can always come up with
10:16insufficient reasons for doing things.
10:18I have a famous analogy that I I like to
10:20use called eating my dog. I've got a
10:22couple of dogs and I've never eaten
10:23either of them.
10:24And if I said to you I'm going to eat my
10:26dog because I'm hungry and there's a lot
10:27of meat on the dog and it's very calorie
10:29dense and nutritious and lean protein
10:32therefore I'm going to eat the dog, you
10:33would look at me like I was insane and
10:35some sort of complete psychopath and
10:37rightly so.
10:38Because that's citing an insufficient
10:40reason for doing something as though
10:42it's sufficient.
10:43And when you hear someone say I'm going
10:45to bet the river to rep the king to make
10:47my opponent think I have a king
10:49like they might make they might think
10:50you have a king and they might fold for
10:52that reason. So in a sense that's a
10:54reason for doing something.
10:56But you have pocket sevens and your
10:58showdown value is 43%.
11:00And your opponent's folding hardly any
11:02hands that actually beat you even if
11:03they do think you've hit the king on the
11:04river. So it's not sufficient in the
11:06same way it's not sufficient for me to
11:07eat the dog. So comments about dog
11:10eating will no doubt ensue down below. I
11:12don't don't endorse this at all. I don't
11:14think it'd be very tasty either. Dogs
11:16strike me as like quite stringy animals.
11:19Like I don't know if the meat would even
11:20be good, but yeah, less less about that.
11:22Let me know if you've ever tried dog
11:24meat in the the comments. I'm I'm
11:25curious now. I'm not going to do it
11:26though. It's insufficient. Okay, this is
11:29an absolute beast in graph. If you have
11:30this graph you're probably a complete
11:32end boss already.
11:34The flat red line here takes a hell of a
11:36lot of work. The thing to understand is
11:38that the natural trajectory of a red
11:40line is steeply downward if you're a
11:41human playing poker, because you post
11:43blinds and you fold and people take your
11:46blinds, right? From in position, and
11:48then you've got to fight back. You've
11:49got to find flop check raises just to
11:50stay alive, that kind of thing.
11:52So,
11:53this graph is somebody who
11:56is very good at value betting, is not a
11:58complete out and out
11:59micromaniac, but they're very, very
12:01accurate and they use aggression in
12:03extremely
12:05good ways to just keep their red line
12:07afloat, keep it off the ground, right?
12:10Because
12:12if you think about it, low stakes poker
12:14and micro stakes poker are these realms
12:16where there are just so many
12:18unintentionally over folded spots by the
12:20population.
12:21They're checking, they're folding,
12:22they're capping their range, they're
12:23folding, they're not probing the turn,
12:26they are folding so much to double to
12:28delayed C bet, double delayed C bet, all
12:31of this stuff. Like, there's just so
12:32many lines that once you know what they
12:33are and how to use them,
12:35you can just print
12:38very reliably when it comes to red line.
12:41But, printing when it comes to red line
12:43means keeping the graph off the deck a
12:45lot of the time, not having this soaring
12:48upward red line. There is a type of
12:49poker player we're going to talk about
12:50in a minute. We're going to see their
12:51graph
12:52who has that soaring upward red line,
12:54but this is like a blue lining player
12:56that's very good at reliably scavenging.
12:58They just know when to invest money.
13:00They're super accurate. They don't waste
13:02money on bad bluffs or bad value bets
13:04that are too thin or anything like that.
13:06They just
13:07make accurate decisions,
13:09but very aggressively. They're just
13:11chipping away at opponents, harvesting
13:14fold equity with lines that are just
13:15devastatingly effective for the risk
13:17reward that they generate.
13:20And yeah, this is a player that's got it
13:21absolutely nailed. This is a graph to
13:23aim towards. If you can get this graph,
13:25you'll be just untouchable. This is a
13:27great red line blue line
13:29configuration to have. I've admitted
13:30like even when I played professionally
13:32like back in the day and played high
13:33volume,
13:34I managed to get a red line that was a
13:35little bit losing
13:37and I was really happy with that. I've
13:38never had one that's like just a little
13:40bit off the deck like this. It's never
13:41been my style to be all out complete
13:44attack in every single spot as we're
13:46going to see a player who does this in a
13:47minute likes to do. These aren't real
13:49graphs by the way when I say likes to
13:51do. These are just like visual
13:52representations of of real graphs, you
13:54know. They do look very realistic. Like
13:56I've seen graphs that look like this.
13:59But obviously this one's rarer than the
14:01ones that came before. So yeah, let's
14:02move on to the next kind of graph then.
14:06This Okay, this one doesn't look so
14:08realistic. Like has anyone ever seen a
14:10red line like this?
14:11Um yeah, I had to get AI to to edit this
14:13a couple of times. It didn't quite know
14:15what I was getting at with my
14:16description.
14:17So ignore the specifics of this. I don't
14:20think you'll get a graph that looks
14:21quite like this in real life, but the
14:23idea here
14:24is that if you have a jagged downward
14:26red line,
14:27what's happening is that you are
14:29spewing.
14:30This graph is someone who is spewing
14:33terribly.
14:34And the jagged downward red line means
14:35you invest loads of money, but
14:37ultimately don't like going to showdown.
14:40So you lose all of your red line
14:42pre-showdown. This is a pretty rare
14:43graph,
14:44but it does exist. I've seen students
14:46that have this
14:47and they have very bad control over
14:49where they invest money. Again, like
14:51insufficient reasons are an issue here.
14:53They come up with reasons to be
14:54aggressive early. They like to make
14:55their opponent fold, but ultimately
14:57they're choosing terrible spots and they
14:59end up just having to like check fold
15:00the next street. This is a rarer one. I
15:02won't spend too much time on it, but if
15:04you do have this, it's caused by early
15:06street spew, calling flops too wide to
15:08fold turns, calling turns too wide to
15:10fold rivers,
15:11ultimately folding a lot and giving up a
15:13lot, but spewing on the way. It's It's a
15:16specific type of player who does this.
15:18It's not going to be that many of you,
15:19but I thought I'd throw it in there.
15:21And finally, we have the complete
15:24warrior red line crusher. This is a
15:28player who defaults to bluffing
15:31and running the bill over in spots where
15:33they don't hit defense frequencies.
15:35When I built Greedy of the Carrot Poker
15:37School, which is the main mass data
15:38exploited of course in the Golden
15:40Carrot, which is our highest tier, our
15:42field tier,
15:43I worked with this guy who
15:46had
15:47done this himself. He'd run a graph like
15:49this up to 100 NL. And this was back on
15:51PokerStars playing Zoom
15:53a few years ago now, but you know, not
15:56an easy game to do that in. Like 100 NL
15:58Zoom on Stars, definitely like a game
16:00that could be quite tough at times. Had
16:02200 regs, you know, depping into it,
16:04that sort of thing.
16:05And the guy that I first got the data
16:07from when we built Greedy and who showed
16:09me how Hand2Note works and all of that,
16:11gave me reports for lots of different
16:12spots.
16:14Obviously, I paid him for this, but
16:15yeah, legend of a guy. He was a I would
16:17say a good, but not like end boss poker
16:19player, but he was able to run a graph
16:21like this at 100 NL because he just had
16:24all the data. He had all the all the hot
16:26spots, and he just defaulted to
16:27bluffing. Like closed his eyes and just
16:29bluffed in those spots, ran over a
16:31reggie pool that wasn't hitting defense
16:32frequencies, and this is the end result.
16:35You don't win any blue line doing this.
16:36Like of course, you get you get gifts
16:38back when you run into fish that just
16:39pay you off when you've got it, and your
16:41blue line stays afloat because some
16:43people start to pay you off more because
16:46you're always attacking, and you've got
16:47that image.
16:48But what this graph does is it just
16:50accepts that you're going to lose loads
16:52of stacks. Like you fire up a session,
16:54you are going to bluff off a few stacks
16:56when you play this style. By the way,
16:58this is very much a do not try this at
17:00home style.
17:01It will get you destroyed if you don't
17:03know what you're doing. You need data
17:04for this. You need hot spots. You need
17:05to know exactly where people are
17:06over-folding, and ideally, you need a
17:08big enough pool that they can't just
17:10look at you and say, "Oh, it's that
17:11crazy guy." Because guess what? When the
17:13guy that I worked with that did the
17:14Greedy data for me moved up to 200, it
17:17didn't work anymore. Partially because
17:20the regs were better at hitting defense
17:21frequencies at those stakes. Partially
17:24because it was a smaller pool and they
17:25could see what he was up to.
17:28And also because they were just better
17:29at adapting to things that they saw.
17:32At lower stakes, regs are very bad at
17:34adapting. They might see that you're
17:35aggressive, but they don't know what to
17:36do about it and they're still not going
17:38to call you. They're just going to wait
17:39for a hand. I'm going to get this guy as
17:41soon as I've got a hand, god dammit. And
17:42that's exactly how you pay off
17:45how you allow the warrior reg strategy
17:47to pay off, I should say. Because
17:49waiting for a hand in no limit hold'em
17:51is kind of like waiting for a bus on a
17:53Sunday
17:54in Scotland. It's not a good idea. They
17:58don't show up. I've not been on a bus
17:59for many years. Pride myself on that.
18:02Living in the countryside now. No more
18:03buses, just cars, just driving. But man,
18:06hated waiting on buses. Not a good way
18:08to stand up for yourself against this
18:10sort of player. Anyway, I digress. The
18:12point is that at 200
18:14the regs were better at saying, "Oh,
18:15wait. It's that guy."
18:17and adapting to it. And if you're
18:18playing 10 and L
18:20zoom pool, Russian cash, whatever it is
18:23you're going to be able
18:24to get away with strategies like this
18:26against loads of a pool who is 600 or
18:29700 people large, you know.
18:33So, this graph is it takes a lot of
18:34know-how. It's a devastatingly effective
18:36way to play poker still even in 2026.
18:40But, you need to be comfortable getting
18:42stacked by bluffing multiple times. And
18:43it's the absolute opposite
18:45of first one we looked at, right?
18:48So, we go full circle here.
18:50We started with this graph.
18:52This player feels queasy just stabbing
18:54the turn
18:55as a bluff, you know, when someone
18:57checks twice.
18:58Whereas this player knows what textures
19:01they gain a thin edge by.
19:03This player, sorry, knows which textures
19:05they gain a thin edge by triple
19:07barreling or raising a river bet all in.
19:09They're just not worried about taking
19:12obscenely aggressive lines that get them
19:14stacked often
19:16but not often enough to make it not
19:18profitable. That's what's going on here.
19:20So, yeah, not everyone's cup of tea,
19:22certainly not my cup of tea this style.
19:23It takes a hell of a lot of mental
19:25fortitude, know-how,
19:28and you need to be able to deal with
19:29like 18 buying losing days when like you
19:31get called in every spot and run into
19:33the nuts cuz you're just throwing stacks
19:34in left, right, and center. What style
19:36would I recommend?
19:38I think you should aim towards this. I
19:40think this should be what you try to
19:41make your graph ultimately, but if you
19:44have something between that
19:46and this one, that's also completely
19:48fine.
19:49This graph is not to be confused with
19:52the one at the end. This graph is
19:53someone who just completely
19:56blanket invest money in terrible ways
19:58over and over again and can't fold,
20:01whereas this is someone using data to or
20:04using their own experience to know when
20:06to do that exactly and respecting
20:08polarization. This player knows how to
20:10check the middle of their range, right?
20:12The other person doesn't. So, I hope
20:14this has been helpful. I hope it's been
20:16a good insight into what your graph
20:18might mean,
20:19and there's a very good chance that your
20:20graph is in between some of the graphs
20:22we looked at today, and that's fine. You
20:24can just extract different elements from
20:25this video.
20:26If you want to get started at Carrot
20:28Corner for free, we have this thing
20:30called a free starter kit. It's three
20:32videos to help you diagnose your I guess
20:34your graph style, your leak style. It's
20:36very relevant to what we did today. Do
20:38you have red leaks, blue leaks, or green
20:39leaks and how to fix them? We'll even
20:41show you how to go on a little personal
20:421,000 hand challenge to get working on
20:45them, and then it's on to bronze. That's
20:46our first tier if you're looking to
20:48actually
20:49invest at Carrot Corner into a poker
20:51education.
20:52Then we have silver and gold from there.
20:53Check out the website, get started with
20:55three free videos, and I will see you
20:57next time
20:58for more poker learning. Bye for now.

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