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I've Coached Poker for 16 Years. These 3 Players NEVER Make It — Transcript

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0:00I'm 40 and I've been coaching poker
0:02since I was 24. In those 16 years, I've
0:05watched hundreds of students come and
0:07go. Some have made it, some haven't. And
0:08I have learned something very important
0:11that there are three types of poker
0:12player who almost never make it. And
0:14what's even more scary is that most of
0:17you watching this are one of them.
0:19There's probably about a 65 to 70%
0:21chance that you are one of these three
0:23types of poker player. And if you are,
0:26my job here is not to persuade you to
0:28give up the game. Although that would be
0:30preferable to continuing down a hopeless
0:33path, my job is to show you that you
0:35might need to make a giant perspective
0:39switch and to wake you up a bit if you
0:42are one of these three. These three
0:44types of players that I have watched
0:46fail despite doing my very best, despite
0:50having coaching and working hard, all
0:52share one fundamental trait in common,
0:55main character syndrome. That doesn't
0:58make you selfish or a narcissist or
1:00anything like that. In a video game,
1:02it's okay to experience the world
1:04through your own character's eyes and to
1:06see everything from your perspective.
1:09But when you do that in poker, it's
1:11fatal. And these three players we're
1:13about to discuss all do it in one way or
1:16another. So, first off, why is main
1:18character syndrome not a problem in a
1:21video game? Well, it's because
1:24everything happens through the lens of
1:26your character. It's all about you. It's
1:27about your stats. It's about your
1:29weapon. It's about your fireball spell,
1:31right? I'm talking about an RPG here,
1:33but you can apply this to any game,
1:34first person shooter, whatever it may
1:36be. And that's normal. That's how you
1:38should experience those kind of video
1:39games. It would be weird to wonder about
1:41the other characters and the places in
1:42the game that you're not currently
1:43visiting. That would be bizarre. But
1:45because poker is this grand strategic
1:48web of ideas, right? That's why I call
1:49poker theory, right? All of these
1:51concepts that affect EV and EV, by the
1:54way, affects your bottom line, your
1:55green line, how well you do over a
1:57period of months or years, variance
1:59aside, that is caused by Eevee. And
2:01Eevee is a real concept. It's there with
2:03you at the table when you're playing.
2:05It's a direct result of your cards, your
2:06opponent's range and strategies, and
2:08what's going to happen if you take X
2:11action with Yand. That's what determines
2:14your Eevee. There's this new wave of
2:15players right now who are getting into
2:17the game and they're seeing the word
2:18Eevee in a solver and they think it's
2:20purely a theoretical thing. It's not.
2:23There's theoretical Eevee and then
2:24there's what I call, you guessed it,
2:26ladies and gentlemen, true Eevee that
2:29resides at the table and it affects your
2:32hand, the two cards in front of you and
2:34how you play them against your
2:35opponent's ranges and strategies. So
2:38with that in mind, one aspect of main
2:40character syndrome and the first player
2:42type I want to warn you not to be today
2:44or urge you to not be any longer if you
2:47already are this person is the my range
2:50guy or or girl. The my range person is
2:54someone who focuses much more on their
2:56own range strategy, balance, avoiding
2:59overbluffing or underbluffing, bluff to
3:01value ratios, things like this. had a
3:03video that came out very recently where
3:05I mentioned a student who didn't make
3:07it, who succumbed to all kinds of poker
3:09pitfalls. And that student's major
3:11problem was they started the game
3:12obsessed about balance and ratios and
3:15solver outputs and stuff like that. You
3:18can use the solver in a very good way by
3:19the way that has nothing to do with
3:21memorizing bluff to value ratios or
3:23frequencies for hands. So the main
3:25character syndrome person in poker who
3:27is obsessed with their own range is
3:30caring about something that does not
3:32directly have an effect on their real
3:35game Eevee. Let me show you why your own
3:36range is basically a non- entity. It
3:38kind of doesn't exist for all intents
3:40and purposes causally. Let's say you're
3:42on the river and you're considering
3:43bluffing and you're against a reggg in a
3:45Zoom game fastold game at 50NL or
3:48something and you've played a few hands
3:49together but you don't really know each
3:50other, right? You're on the river. Very
3:52common situation I've described there.
3:54It's a bet, check, bet opportunity.
3:55You've bet the flop, turn check through.
3:57You've got the chance to bluff the
3:58river. You've got jack high. You don't
4:00think your hand's worth much at
4:01showdown. If anything, you're
4:02considering bluffing.
4:04But what's your range if you bluff?
4:07What's your range for bluffing?
4:10Well, you can just decide what it is in
4:13this one moment. You could make your
4:14range for bluffing just this one combo
4:16you have here, or you could make it like
4:18every air combo you land with. How
4:20you've played the turn, by the way, will
4:21affect that. But again, you had full
4:23control over that. You could play it
4:24differently on one day to another day.
4:25Your mood could affect that. All kinds
4:27of opaque factors can affect what your
4:29actual bluffing range is on the river.
4:31Villain strategy, how often they call
4:33you with a certain hand that they have
4:35or how likely they are to call you with
4:36that hand. Usually that's a binary
4:38thing. They're going to call you with
4:39that hand or they're not is based on
4:41what they think of the average player in
4:43your situation's range. Right? The
4:45average reg's range. If you look like a
4:46rag, maybe maybe it's not based on
4:48anything and they're just tilted or
4:49button clicking or zombieing their way
4:51through a session, right? You don't know
4:52what it's based on. But one thing is for
4:54sure, it is not based on what your true
4:56bluffing range actually is in that
4:58moment because they have zero access to
5:00that. And psychologically, nobody can
5:03make a decision due to a factor that
5:06they have zero access to. That is
5:08impossible. Right? If I don't know
5:10what's in a box, I can't make a decision
5:13based on what's in the box. So, they
5:16don't know what your actual range is.
5:17And therefore, in one real sense, it
5:20doesn't matter what your actual range
5:23is. Your EV doesn't depend on that at
5:27all. Your EV from bluffing depends on
5:29your fold equity in this one moment.
5:30Now, if you played 400 million hands
5:33against Linus Love, you'd get destroyed.
5:36But aside from that, you would need to
5:37care about how often you were doing
5:39certain things, and you would have to
5:40not project an exploitable face up
5:42strategy to your opponent who's better
5:44than you and is going to learn what it
5:45is and is going to beat you. That's why
5:47a solver really cares about balance.
5:49It's still not primary, by the way. In a
5:51solver, Eevee comes first. But a solver
5:52cares about balance because its opponent
5:54has full 2020 vision as to its strategy.
5:59This is not the case in this spot I've
6:02described. So, should you bluff the
6:05river? That depends on how often the
6:09player type you're up against is folding
6:13over massive samples. We have data
6:15courses in this in golden carrot, right?
6:16Data is a thing. Also, common sense is a
6:19thing. Human psychology is a thing. And
6:20theory is a thing as well, right? What's
6:22the range they start with? How strong is
6:24it? How natural is it to call the river
6:26with? And how likely are they to want to
6:29fold to certain bet sizes? And how much
6:31fold equity will certain bet sizes
6:32garner on average? That's what affects
6:34your EV in this spot. But the my range
6:37guy is obsessed with bluff to value
6:40ratios. I don't want to bet jack high
6:42because then I might be overluffing. It
6:43has nothing to do with your EV. I think
6:46my bluffs here are these hands and my
6:48value bets are these hands. And I'm
6:50going to roll to see if I bluff. Almost
6:52certainly terrible at low stakes where
6:54spots are just basically overfolded or
6:57underfolded. You need to just learn
6:58which is which. Right. We That's what we
7:00do at Carrot Corner. We partly teach
7:02exploits for that reason. It's highly
7:04unlikely that the EV bluffing that river
7:05is exactly zero like it is in the solver
7:07with that bluff that has average
7:09blockers at a spot that's not overfolded
7:11blah blah blah. You get the gist. So to
7:16summarize this, it's conceptually
7:19important to understand what the buttons
7:22range generally looks like in theory in
7:24that spot that you're in that bet check
7:26bet opportunity. It's important to
7:28understand in theory that if that river
7:30card is good for you or that turn card
7:33was good for you by the way as well,
7:34then you may have an automatic bluff in
7:36theory cuz your fold equity is supposed
7:38to be higher. And if it's not, then you
7:40don't. And it's going to be more about
7:41your blockers in theory.
7:44But your own actual range has nothing to
7:48do with it. What the big blind thinks a
7:51button range might look like there and
7:53how it might behave has something to do
7:55with it, but it's not clear how much.
7:57But your true range is not a thing
8:00because it is basically changeable based
8:03on whatever thought you happen to have
8:06in that moment. So, if you feel like you
8:08don't want to bluff there, your range
8:09for bluffing is nothing because that
8:11feeling that you don't want to bluff is
8:13going to take over and you're not going
8:14to bluff any of the bluffs. And now
8:16you're completely unbalanced. And if you
8:18feel like you need to win the pot, that
8:19you're desperate to win that pot and
8:21you're always bluffing every combo, then
8:22you're over bluffing, right? Maybe
8:24depending on the range you've landed
8:25with and what the board is. But what's
8:27for sure is that that actual range is
8:30nothing like the balanced idea that you
8:32have of it in your head or that you saw
8:33in the solver. And even if it was, it
8:36wouldn't do anything for you. So yes, I
8:39stand by my original assertion in that
8:41past video, that recent video that it
8:45isn't about learning bluff to value
8:47ratios and balance and and playing your
8:49range. You shouldn't play your range in
8:50poker. You should understand how your
8:53range is meant to sort of look in that
8:56node and how you might want to change it
8:59to improve your EV. But ultimately, your
9:03hand is the only thing that's in control
9:05of your EV against your opponent's range
9:08and strategy, not how you would play the
9:11other hands in that very moment. I hope
9:13that makes sense. Right? So, I'm not
9:15saying that people who study G with GTO
9:18or use solvers or care about poker
9:20theory, all these things are a bit
9:22different, by the way, but bear with me.
9:23I'm not saying that those things are
9:25inherently always bad, but when they are
9:28accompanied by the pitfall goal of
9:32trying to emulate balance and bluff to
9:34value ratios and thinking that your
9:36range is something you need to be
9:37playing in the moment, I'm afraid you're
9:41succumbing to a kind of midw
9:43misunderstanding about poker. Midwit, by
9:46the way, refers to the meme, right,
9:47where like the guy at the the base level
9:50of that skill has just started who has
9:53no eyes as depicted in the midw meme,
9:55right? Never has any eyes because
9:57they're very, very bad at the thing.
9:59They can't even see what's in front of
10:00them. They're not going to play their
10:01range. They're not going to be like, "My
10:03range is this like magical entity that
10:04determines my EV, and I need to get it
10:06right in every moment, even though I've
10:08only got one part of it." They're not
10:09going to do that. And when you look at a
10:11pro, they know what range versus range
10:14looks like. They know how the node
10:16operates. The decision point operates in
10:18theory. They have a sort of intrinsic
10:22feel roughly for ranges and what they're
10:25doing. And then they play their hand as
10:27well as they think they can in that
10:29context. But the midweet is going to try
10:32to treat loads of hands that are totally
10:33differently the same that are totally
10:35different the same and is going to
10:38confuse what Eevee actually causally
10:42relates to.
10:44It relates to your hand, not your range.
10:48If you bluff that river and you're
10:50getting 10% more folds than you should,
10:52which you do, by the way, in lots of bet
10:53check bet spots. There's a little tidbit
10:56tit for you. There you go. I can't speak
10:57today. There's a tidbit for you. You
11:00know, that's a good node to bluff in
11:02generally speaking. Not always. There
11:04are exceptions, but that's generally a
11:05good node to bluff in, and you should
11:06make that bluff.
11:08And if you happen to be over bluffing
11:11there,
11:13it's still profitable for you to make
11:15that bluff because presumably that
11:16opponent I just described that doesn't
11:17really know you doesn't know that you're
11:19overbluffing. If they did, the whole
11:21pool would know, right? Cuz they're just
11:22a random member of the pool and then the
11:24node wouldn't be overvolted, right? So
11:26you can sort of reason that one out of
11:28existence. So stop caring about your own
11:31balance, your own range, whether you're
11:33overluffing or underluffing. Nothing
11:34good will happen to you because you get
11:36a bluff to value ratio right. nothing
11:38good will happen to you. If you make a
11:40winning bluff a thousand times, lots of
11:42good things will happen to you and
11:44they're called dollars generally. Right.
11:46The second sort of poker player that has
11:49almost no shot at this game
11:53is,
11:55how do I describe this?
11:57Let's call them the victim or the
12:01monster hunter because they're seeing
12:02monsters everywhere that they want to
12:04take down. They think that all of their
12:07opponents are big bad bullies. There's
12:10shadows on the wall. They see villains,
12:14literal villains everywhere. But I'm
12:16going to stick with the victim because
12:20what the victim will do is they'll make
12:22it all about them, but in a completely
12:24different way to the my range guy. The
12:26my range guy was was trying not to be
12:29unbalanced, wanted to be unexploitable,
12:31wanted to have some perfect construction
12:34of a concept that doesn't even exist
12:35really in any functional way, their own
12:38range in that moment in time. The victim
12:42wants to never be bullied out of a pot.
12:46The victim will make egregious calls
12:48because their hand label is good or even
12:52great. their objective hand label like
12:54flush straight trips full house. They
12:56will ignore their opponent's line and
12:58all of the clues that tip them off to
13:00the fact that they're just beat here
13:02really frequently and they will
13:04construct arguments to make horrific win
13:07rate destroying debilitating calls and
13:11the victim is everywhere.
13:14I say victim because this desire to
13:18protect yourself from being bluffed
13:19first and foremost and to see people as
13:23bluffing or overbluffing in spots where
13:25they're actually under bluffing comes
13:27from a protective instinct in the human
13:32psyche.
13:34a desire to make sure that you are not
13:38bullied and run over and have your stuff
13:40taken, your lunch money taken by another
13:42another human because that equals not
13:45surviving, right? When that happens to
13:47you, especially where we evolved without
13:49the protection of a state, you know, in
13:52the jungle or the savannah or whatever
13:54it was, like if that happens to you and
13:55you're kicked out the tribe and you're
13:56bullied, you're dead. You're done for.
13:59So, we're very very guarded against
14:01people taking advantage of us. That's
14:02why when you think someone's treating
14:04you unfairly, you get really angry,
14:06right? Like when you think someone is
14:07really taking liberties with you and
14:09trying to get stuff from you and treat
14:11you unfairly and exploit you in some
14:12way, you get really mad. And in poker,
14:15the whole game is about exploiting
14:16people and making them fall too much and
14:18running them over and stuff like that,
14:19or at least a large part of it. But your
14:21brain doesn't understand that. Your
14:22lizard brain, the one at the the back of
14:24your skull, it doesn't get that. And
14:25it's like, "Oh no, big baddy coming
14:27after me, trying to make me fold again.
14:28I call. I have trips. Trips no good."
14:30What do you mean trips no good? God, I'm
14:32so unlucky. How can they always have it?
14:34I'll tell you why they always have it.
14:36Because you always call in spots where
14:38they're close to never bluffing. That's
14:40why they always have it. Surely they're
14:43bluffing sometimes. No, actually they're
14:44not bluffing sometimes when they giant
14:46check raise the turn and jam the river
14:48at 10L. They're not bluffing sometimes.
14:49It's like 3%. So, you don't see that
14:52very often, right?
14:54So, this is a hell of a lot of students.
14:57And in my coaching career, one of the
14:59first things I would always do towards
15:01the end especially is I would just turn
15:02on a losing pot filter and I'd look at
15:04the times they lost stacks, but they had
15:06decisions to make after the turn. So,
15:08they weren't all in on the flop or pre
15:09flop. And I would look at the river
15:12calls and I would go through them with
15:13the student and I would say, "Horrific,
15:15losing about 27 big blinds of EV.
15:18Horrible. Quite bad. This one's close to
15:21a cooler but debatable. There were very
15:23few coolers in there. Do you know how
15:24many of those hands the calling station
15:26student, the victim student would think
15:28were just setups that were just coolers
15:30before we looked at it? Most of them.
15:32How many were actually coolers? None of
15:34them. Do you know how the victim student
15:36would react when I then said, "Why did
15:38you do this?" They would say, "I don't
15:41know. I can't believe I did that most of
15:44the time." When I took them out of that
15:47in-game I'm threatened by a rival
15:50competitor
15:52environment. When I took them out of
15:53that adversarial
15:56fighting for resources landscape of
15:58poker and I asked them in a teaching
16:00learning environment, what are you
16:02doing? They were like, I've made a
16:04terrible call. I I don't know. This is
16:05so embarrassing. This is just awful. I
16:07can't believe this is happening in a
16:08coaching session. I thought we would be
16:10talking about something advanced and
16:12maybe I could learn about blockers and
16:14instead you're just showing me that I
16:16punted off 19 stacks in a week. And
16:20you're not going to win at poker when
16:21you punt off 19 stacks in a week.
16:23There's no room for that. You you can't
16:25do it. But this is this is so many
16:28students. This is probably 60% of
16:30students have debilitating river calling
16:33leaks in spots where their opponent
16:35isn't bluffing enough. Maybe 70%. It's
16:37most of you. So for most of you in your
16:39current form watching this, you don't
16:40make enough good folds when your hand is
16:43quite good, but the action tells you
16:44you're dead. And because of that, you
16:46punt off loads of stacks in spots where
16:48you almost never win. and you bluff
16:49catch where people are almost never
16:50bluffing. And because of that, you are
16:53stuck at 5 and L, 10 and L or whatever.
16:56And the the main cure for this, by the
16:58way, there's two things you can do.
16:59First is acknowledging the mental game
17:00leak and seeing where it comes from and
17:02treating it with a little bit more
17:03skepticism and objectivity. But the
17:06other thing you can do is get good at
17:07bluff catching. We actually start that
17:08in Bronze Carrot. That's our
17:09introductory course. It's the thing to
17:10do after the starter kit or even before
17:12if you want. It's 15 episodes. There's a
17:15lot of stuff about calling bets in there
17:17and making bets. Why we bet why we call
17:20absolutely fundamental and so many
17:22people just don't have this down and
17:23that's what causes this victim
17:24mentality. The fear of being bullied to
17:27run riot. You you heard the expression
17:29the devil makes hard work for idle
17:32hands. What is it? Something like this.
17:34The the devil will get you if you're not
17:37occupied in the good, right? Something
17:39like that is the old um religious
17:42u saying, right? Let's say so in poker,
17:45what happens is that your caveman
17:48instincts will get you if you don't have
17:50understanding of the game to do the
17:51thinking with, right? If you don't wield
17:53the tools to actually solve the spot,
17:56well, the caveman that doesn't want to
17:57get bullied will just step in and solve
17:59it for it. He'll be like, "Okay, there's
18:00nothing here that necessarily tells me
18:02what to do. So, I'll just defer back to
18:05don't fold trips because then they're
18:07taking advantage of me and taking my
18:08stuff. I've got trips. You're not taking
18:10my stuff when I've got trips. call
18:12that's what will happen and it's
18:14happening constantly to you. Let's face
18:16it, it is it's happening all the time
18:19and you need to face it and then you
18:20need to work on your game so you
18:21understand how the spot works. You need
18:22to attack this from both sides if you
18:24want to cure yourself of this. Okay. The
18:26third thing I want to talk about today,
18:28the third type of player who also
18:30suffers from main character syndrome,
18:32both the range guy and that stationary
18:35victim player, they make themselves the
18:37protagonist. They're worried about
18:38what's happening to them or what could
18:40happen to them in the former case,
18:42right? And the third player type, it's
18:44just the same, but it's the green leak,
18:46as we as we say in the starter kit, link
18:48in description. The green leak is when
18:50we are avoiding good investments. We're
18:53making bad non-investments either by
18:56folding too much. Not what I'm going to
18:58talk about here cuz that's just not that
18:59many of you. Okay, as in some spots, but
19:02yeah, fold the river first before you
19:04worry about that. What I'm going to talk
19:06about here is not bluffing enough.
19:10Massive leak. And people who don't bluff
19:11enough, by the way, they don't generally
19:13value bet thinly enough either. They're
19:15they just check. They have a very
19:18very
19:20bad red line because
19:23they don't make much money by making
19:25people fold and therefore they don't get
19:27back much of the money that they lose by
19:29just like posting the big blind and
19:30folding or calling and check folding the
19:32flop. the natural things that happen to
19:34you in cards, right? So, this player
19:37with the green leak, I want to call them
19:39the self-conscious bluffer, right?
19:41They're the player that can't bluff
19:44because they feel awkward about it. They
19:46feel a sense of impending shame. They
19:47almost feel like it has to work much
19:49more than it does. So, you can let me
19:51know in the comments if this this fits,
19:52right? If this sounds like you. This
19:54player also has a very low chance of
19:56success until they cure this because
19:57they get to the river in that same bet,
20:00check bet opportunity spot, right?
20:01They've got the chance to make this
20:02bluff. Are they going to make the bluff?
20:04It is a winning bluff. Let's say we're
20:05watching it from the outside. We can
20:06watch hero in the spot. And hero checks.
20:09And why does hero check? Partly doesn't
20:11have enough theory to know that that's
20:12just a winning bluff in theory. It's a
20:14queen river. It's really good for your
20:16range. You got bluff the queen river,
20:17right? When it goes bet generally on a
20:20low board. They don't know that. So
20:21there's the theory problem. Coming right
20:23back into this again. So many of these
20:25things are partially caused by a lack of
20:27theory, but not fully because the other
20:29side of it is, well, that's then
20:32arbitrary. If you don't know whether
20:33it's a good bluff or not, you should be
20:34indifferent between bluffing or not
20:36bluffing, right? You shouldn't really be
20:38able to make the decision. Yet, this
20:39player always checks. So, why does the
20:41guy with the green leaks always check?
20:44Because they feel like if they're going
20:45to try and take something, steal
20:47something, win something, they don't
20:49have a good enough hand to be entitled
20:51to, then it should almost always work.
20:53Because if you were going to steal
20:54something in real life, right? I mean,
20:57most of us have probably stolen
20:58something at some point. Do you remember
21:00Pogs? The little cardboard discs? I'm
21:02showing my age here. I did say I was 40
21:04at the start of this video. Well, in
21:05about 1996, Pogs were were all the rage.
21:08You'd hit these cardboard discs with
21:10plastic discs to try to flip them over
21:12and win them from your opponents. I had
21:14the biggest Pog collection in my whole
21:16school. I was the Pogman. My nickname
21:18was Pogman at one point. No wonder I
21:20became a poker player, right? Like, of
21:22course, the writing was on the wall, you
21:24could say. Well, anyway, one time a
21:26teacher decided to ban Pogs because a
21:29parent had said, "My son's lost all his
21:31Pogs to Pete Clark, the expert Pog
21:33player." That's pretty good with with
21:35certain plastic disc slammers they were
21:37called. Anyway, um I digress. The
21:40teacher confiscated my Pogs, put them in
21:42her desk, and then decided to leave the
21:44drawer to her desk open that afternoon
21:46accidentally. And I saw them, and I was
21:48like, "You know what? Screw this. I'm
21:49taking them back.
21:51And that was like tilt me taking the
21:53Pogs back because the chance of me
21:55getting away with that was almost zero.
21:58And that's like when you make a crazy
22:00awful bluff into a really strong range
22:01that you know you shouldn't make. And
22:03that's not actually what I'm talking
22:05about. That's the opposite. What I'm
22:07talking about with the player with the
22:08green leaks is that they want the bluff
22:11to get through almost always. Right? So
22:13you shouldn't make terrible bluffs that
22:15never get through or nearly never get
22:17through like the one I did when I tried
22:18to steal those pogs back. But you should
22:21make bluffs that get through a third of
22:24the time when you're betting third pot
22:26because it only needs to work 25% of the
22:27time. Or if you're betting pot, 56%
22:29equity will make it really profitable.
22:31Fold equity, sorry, will make it very
22:33profitable. So I see people all the time
22:36not bet the standard B75 sizing, right,
22:39that they usually use. Everyone B75s
22:41every river ever at 10L. Let's all
22:43accept it. That's what you do. I know
22:45it's fine. Don't worry about it. We'll
22:47fix it in time. But say you B75 the
22:50river. Do you know how many folds you
22:52need? No,
22:54you don't know how many folds you need
22:56to be 75 the river as a bluff. Yet you
22:58B75 the river is a bluff sometimes.
23:04No, but seriously this is an epidemic.
23:07People not knowing pots. You need about
23:0842 43% fold equity there. Not 50.
23:13Do you know how much fold equity your
23:14brain if you are a self-conscious
23:17bluffer is going to tell you that you
23:19need? Not even 50%. Cuz that'd be like
23:22stealing something that you'll only get
23:23away with stealing half the time. Your
23:26brain will want like 70% success rate,
23:3175 80 subconsciously to bluff the river.
23:34You might not believe me or you might
23:36think that's crazy. Like on a conscious
23:38level when you understand the slightest
23:39thing about pot you're risking less than
23:41one to win one. So of course it's less
23:43than 50%. But your subconscious doesn't
23:46get that. It's never understood maths
23:48like if it hasn't learned maths in like
23:4940 years or 20 or 57 years. Guess your
23:53age. You're 57. Bam. Just got some of
23:55you. You know, then you're not it's
23:57never going to learn to do that. That's
23:58the job of your prefrontal cortex is
24:01going to calculate stuff, right? But
24:04it's not the thing that's engaged and
24:06firing neurons about the place when you
24:09have a bluff opportunity on the river.
24:11It's the caveman brain that's going,
24:12"Nope, can't steal, might get killed,
24:14might get kicked out of the tribe and
24:16ostracized forever. Can't do it. Need
24:1880% fold equity. Need 90% fold equity."
24:22But actually 65 when you need 43 is
24:25amazing. And these self-conscious
24:28bluffers, these students with green
24:29leaks, they're just incapable of
24:31bluffing even in quite, you know,
24:33mundane situations. They just defer to
24:35not doing it. It's just a big stretch
24:36for them to do it. It feels stressful.
24:38It provokes anxiety. If you're watching
24:41this like, "Haha, bro, who are these
24:43people you talk about, Pete? Lol."
24:46You're a bit of a But like, back
24:48to the the point at hand here, you just
24:50have red leaks instead, probably. Like
24:53if that seems totally alien to you, you
24:55just have different leaks, right? And
24:57that's fine. We have red, blue, or green
25:00leaks. There are three categories.
25:02They're not mutually exclusive. You can
25:03see which ones you have by doing the
25:05test in the starter kit when you're done
25:07with this video. We're pretty much done
25:08with this video, but I'll summarize by
25:10saying this.
25:12These three things are all main
25:13character syndrome. In the first case of
25:15the my range guy, it's all about being
25:17protected and unexploitable, preemptive
25:19measures to make sure that nobody ever
25:21takes advantage of you. It's like a more
25:24paranoid version of the victim actually
25:26in a sense in a more proactive version.
25:28Then you have the victim that's like I'm
25:29just going to call you down because
25:30you're a big bully and you you're
25:31bluffing me and I don't believe you and
25:32I've got trips. I'm just going to you're
25:34not going to push me around. You've got
25:36that you've got that guy and that's
25:38again main character syndrome. You're
25:40making it about you. I'm being blah blah
25:42blah. This person is doing this to me,
25:45right? You're making it about you once
25:47again. And the third type of player is
25:49making it about you because you're like,
25:51I'm not safe. I can't bluff because I'm
25:53not safe bluffing. I'm I don't feel
25:55comfortable enough doing it. It's all
25:57main character syndrome. It doesn't make
25:59you a bad person. It doesn't make you a
26:01narcissist. It just makes you too
26:03self-focused in poker
26:06and you should see poker as if you're
26:10outside of it. Like imagine you were
26:12outside of the universe. What would you
26:13see? We don't know, right? Cuz we don't
26:15actually know what the full extent of
26:16the universe is. But I bet it would be
26:18pretty amazing if you could stand with
26:21me outside of the universe and we could
26:23look down on it together. I bet we would
26:25just be full of wonder and it would be
26:27like we'd see finally why everything was
26:29what it was and we wouldn't have to
26:30wonder. Is it just me that wonders about
26:32this stuff or do you wonder about this
26:34stuff too? But we would see it all and
26:35it would be really really cool. Just
26:37like when we see like galaxies zoomed
26:39out, it's amazing, right? I find that
26:40amazing.
26:42And with poker that's kind of what you
26:44have to do. You have to place yourself
26:45outside of the game and you have to say,
26:46"Okay, I've got like, okay, this is a
26:48hand on my screen. What's the EV of this
26:51hand if I do X, Y, or Zed based on my
26:53opponent's range and strategy?" And then
26:55you don't even know your opponent. So,
26:56you can't have main character syndrome
26:58about them. So, you have to zoom out and
26:59look at it at pool level and figure out
27:01what's best on average and make peace
27:03with it and live with it and see how it
27:05fits into the greater framework of
27:06poker. You cannot be the main character,
27:10the protagonist. You have to be a
27:14fascinated observer that gets to press a
27:17button after thinking for a while. I'll
27:19leave you with that thought. Click the
27:20link, go to Carrot Corner, see what
27:22we're about, and I'll see you next time.
27:24Bye for now.

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