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I Spent $100,000 on this 1 Stock Today‼️ — Transcript

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0:00You got to be flipping my Cheesecake
0:02right on the floor. Look at that. Oh,
0:04the greatest stock in the world.
0:05Cheesecake Factory. Or shall we call it
0:08Cheesecake Factory down $27,000
0:12here today. Holy smokers. That ain't no
0:14dang jokers. But look at that. AMD
0:16[clears throat]
0:17with the bailout. A $27,000
0:20up move for AMD. So that horrible move
0:22from the cake got balanced out with the
0:25good old AMD. Now, in the market right
0:27now, everybody's talking about the Fed,
0:28the Fed, oil prices, inflation. That has
0:31the whole market's attention. And so,
0:33right now, we're in a time period where
0:35earnings season's done, right? Next
0:37earning season is still like probably
0:39about a month and a half away. So, the
0:41attention goes to these other things.
0:42And like, if you're watching CNBC,
0:44Bloomberg, you're listening to these
0:45Wall Streeters, they're all talking
0:46about what's the Fed going to do, 25
0:48basis points, right? Oil price,
0:50inflation, uh, also Treasury yields, all
0:53that sort of stuff, right? That's a huge
0:55focus right now for the overall market,
0:57right? But in this video here today, I
0:59want to talk about three core subjects.
1:01Number one, we're going to talk about
1:02Cheesecake Factory. We're going to talk
1:04about is the stock a buy or not? The
1:05stock's finally under 100 again. So, I
1:08thought we'd talk about that. Second
1:10subject I want to get into here today is
1:11how oil prices affect Celsius and ELF.
1:13And I also want to share some news in
1:15regards to stocks. So, if you own
1:17Celsius stock, ELF stock, care anything
1:18about those, I think you'll enjoy that.
1:20And third subject we'll get here into
1:23today is I spent a ridiculous amount of
1:25money on a stock today. I spent $100,000
1:28on a stock today. Now you might look at
1:30some of the positions in the public
1:31account, several hundred,000 or millions
1:33of dollars, right? In different
1:35portfolios, but I can tell you for me to
1:37spend six figures on a stock in a day, I
1:40have to have a crazy amount of
1:43conviction. And I'm going to share that
1:45in this video. why I'm so excited about
1:47this stock, how much upside I see ahead.
1:50Why would I make a move this dramatic in
1:52a day? This is very abnormal for me.
1:55Like, you know, I don't do that very
1:57often. Like, I remember I did a big buy
1:59of Meta back in 2022. It was like the,
2:01you know, I think October, right around
2:03Halloween 2022, a meta. I think it was
2:05like 93 bucks or something like that. I
2:07think I bought like $70,000 in a day,
2:09right? But it's very rare. Like, I like
2:11to buy consistently in stocks over a
2:13given period of time. I do my consistent
2:15buys in the portfolio and then maybe
2:16I'll do an extra buy here or there for
2:1810 20 30 40,000 but a 100,000 in a day.
2:21Oh boy. Okay. Um can't wait to share
2:24that with you guys here today. All
2:25righty. Uh one thing I need from you
2:26before we get rolling here. I just need
2:27you to smash that like button. I
2:29appreciate you for joining me. I'll have
2:30video feedback um hopefully in the next
2:33few days here. But uh for right now, I'm
2:34the headless horseman. Okay? And uh
2:36yeah, I just need you guys to smash that
2:37like button and make sure you subscribe
2:39to the channel as a sign of my garage
2:41says. That's all I need from you. Okay.
2:43All righty, ladies and gentlemen. So,
2:45cheesecake factory. Last time the stock
2:47was under $100 was way back uh in July,
2:50right? July. And then after that, it
2:52went above 100 and basically it's been
2:54there ever since, right? So, back under
2:56100 now at this point in time. So,
2:57what's going on with Cheesecake Factory?
2:59And is there opportunity here? Okay,
3:00listen.
3:02Here today, Cheesecake Factory
3:04maintained at equal weight by Wells
3:05Fargo. So, they raised their price
3:08target to 105 from 90, but I mean that's
3:10where the stock just was, right? And so
3:12that was kind of like uh like basically
3:15they're kind of like almost saying like
3:16there's no upside in the stock. Like if
3:18you're going to slap a 105 price target
3:20and the stock's around 105 like uh
3:22that's that's nothing, right? So that
3:24could have negatively affected the
3:26stock. But there was this came out.
3:28Okay. Soft August dining traffic weighs
3:31on restaurant sector. Restaurant stocks
3:33are on the defensive Tuesday as industry
3:35data showed a meaningful decline in in
3:39dining traffic. Alibabet largely driven
3:41by the timing of the year's Labor Day
3:44weekend. According to August 2026,
3:47retail and dining index, dining visits
3:50were down 2.4% in August, reversing a
3:53gradual improvement in June and July
3:55after a 2.5% decline in May. Because of
3:58the timing of the Labor Day weekend this
4:01year, dining activity that would
4:03typically begin in late August was
4:05pushed into September with Labor Day
4:07holiday falling on September 7th versus
4:10September 1st in 2025.
4:13Okay, so
4:16why like why do we need to freak out
4:19about this? Like like this is just
4:20ridiculous, right? And I mean you could
4:22have freaked out about this back in May,
4:25right? And then Cheesecake went on an
4:27absolute ripper rally after that. So,
4:29it's just silly short-term stuff is what
4:33I would call it. Very, very silly
4:34short-term stuff that negatively affects
4:36stocks and brings the stocks down,
4:38right? And it is what it is. Now, in
4:40terms of gas prices, gas prices, to be
4:42fair, have gone insane, right? If you
4:44look at a year ago, a gallon of gas was
4:46$3.17 national average. Uh right now
4:49it's $432. That's a big step up. A big
4:53step up in gas prices, right? Diesel
4:57today, guess what? The highest in
5:00history today. The highest ever recorded
5:03average price, $6.26
5:07happened today. So, no bueno, right? No
5:11bueno. Like, gas prices are out of
5:13control right now, right?
5:15And
5:17you know, they've talked about wrapping
5:18up this war a billion times and they
5:20still haven't done it and it's still
5:22ongoing and uh oil prices keep going
5:25higher and gas prices keep going higher,
5:26right? And it does definitely slice and
5:28dice the consumer. It means less money,
5:30you know, at the end of the day like you
5:32know everybody's got a finite amount of
5:33money. If you're you know got a billion
5:36dollars like you know gas prices are
5:37more expensive, who cares? But if you
5:39got a regular income 50 60k a year, like
5:42if your gas price is 30% more this year
5:45than it was last year or 20% or
5:46whatever, like it's it does matter,
5:48right? Um and so it's just less money
5:51you have to spend in the overall
5:52economy. And then diesel, this really
5:55matters significantly. Okay. Much much I
5:57I think it matters just as much if not
5:59more important than everybody else's
6:01regular gas prices. And why? Well,
6:05everything has to get transported around
6:06the United States, right? And many
6:08products end up touching a semi at some
6:10point in time, right? And so when diesel
6:14prices are much more expensive, it's
6:16going to bleed into other things, right?
6:18So fruits and vegetables end up getting
6:20more expensive and other food related
6:22products get more expensive and food
6:23away from home gets more expensive,
6:25right? And so that could end up causing
6:28higher inflation in cheesecake factories
6:30numbers in the whole restaurant sector
6:32in general, right? Like let's say
6:33tomatoes uh go up 5%. And I don't know,
6:37chicken goes up 5% because all the
6:39transportation cost is going up so much,
6:41right? And then it leads into even
6:43fertilizer products and like like it's
6:45just thing after thing after thing. It's
6:46like a domino effect, right? And so next
6:49thing you know, you're stuck in this
6:51situation where everything's more
6:53expensive than maybe you're able to
6:54offset in the menu. And if at the same
6:56time the consumer's a little in a weaker
6:58spot, it could lead you to lower
7:00margins. And that happened at Cheesecake
7:02Factory back in 2022. GK Factory margins
7:05went down quite a bit into 2023 if I
7:07recall and essentially and that's when I
7:09started really buying my position is
7:112023 right and their margins were down
7:13bad at that particular time and they got
7:15slice and dice by inflation now we have
7:17not seen the sort of inflation uh that
7:20we got to see back in you know obviously
7:22the end of 21 and end of 22 but there's
7:25no debate there is a level of inflation
7:27that is higher than comfortable right
7:29you always got to figure there's going
7:30to be some inflation you always got to
7:32figure everything's It's going to go up
7:33a little in price, but when you start
7:36pushing into the threes and maybe even
7:38talk about approaching a four, I guess
7:40that's no bueno. Look at airline uh
7:42fairs. Airline fairs in this most recent
7:44numbers up 23%.
7:46Gasoline up 27% year-over-year. No
7:48bueno. Right now, when it comes to
7:50Cheesecake Factories, there are an
7:51opportunity here, right? Well, here's
7:53the thing. If you look at Cheesecake
7:54Factories forward P, it's around a 21.
7:57Right? Now, we could debate that maybe
7:59it's actually lower in reality than
8:00that. We could debate that maybe it's
8:02higher than that, right? Like let's say
8:03inflation slice and dice the consumer.
8:06Uh the cost of running the business is
8:08more expensive, right? And they can't
8:10offset that over the next couple
8:11quarters. You could make an argument
8:13that maybe they're less profitable than
8:16than what you would expect. And so maybe
8:17the forward P is actually like 24 or 25,
8:20right? But the moral of the story is
8:22let's say this is accurate. Forward P of
8:2521, right? Well, here's the thing. When
8:29you think about Cheesecake Factory,
8:31right, they have this unbelievable
8:33long-term growth that I talk about,
8:35right? Like next decade of growth ahead,
8:38right? Cheesecake Factory, they're not
8:40going to grow units much there. They
8:41will grow units, but not much. 2 to 3% a
8:44year, right? But North Italia are
8:46talking about growing units 20% a year.
8:48Flowerchild, 20% a year. Fox Restaurant
8:53Concepts, their other uh you know, bunch
8:55of different restaurant chains that
8:56they're trying out that many are highly
8:59successful. That's 10 to 15% annual unit
9:01growth, right? That's a company that's
9:03got the next 10 plus years of growth
9:05ahead, right? And you look at like
9:08Flowerchild, Flowerchild can put up a
9:10very similar sales per square foot, but
9:13they're doing in a much smaller size,
9:15right? And so [clears throat]
9:17it doesn't cost nearly as much to build
9:18a Flower Child and you can fit them in a
9:19lot more locations. And so if you look
9:21at Flower Child, they're talking about a
9:23market potential in North America of 70
9:26or excuse me 70 700 700 Flower Child
9:29locations, right? Versus Cheesecake
9:31Factories 300. And so and the Flower
9:34Child comps are insane. Like their most
9:35recent comps were, if I recall, was like
9:3713%. Like that's that's unheard of.
9:40That's astonishing. Just ridiculous
9:42numbers, right? And so Flowerchild is in
9:47a position here where if they keep
9:49accelerating the comps over the next few
9:51years and then you have this sort of
9:53runway of growth. I mean they have 44
9:55Flower Childs right now and they're
9:56talking about going to 700. 700 like
9:59that alone is bigger than anything the
10:02company has going on. Right. Then you
10:03have North Italia. North Italia's 51
10:05locations. They're talking about taking
10:07that to 200 over time. And then the
10:09culinary dropout, the Henry, those have
10:11huge long-term opportunities as well.
10:13not like the flower child in North
10:14Talia, but they definitely have big
10:16long-term opportunities, maybe even
10:17Blanco as well. And so Cheesecake's like
10:21got it right. And so the way I look at
10:23this, is this an opportunity to buy
10:25Cheesecake Factory stock? Listen,
10:28if you're focused on a company like this
10:30for the long term, any short-term
10:32weakness in the stock needs to be taken
10:35advantage of. So if the stock's 90
10:36bucks, 80 bucks, 70 bucks, 60 bucks,
10:38anything in there, right? you you know
10:40if you're really a believer of this
10:41company, you believe this is going to be
10:42a stock that is several hundred dollars
10:45years from now because of this runway of
10:47growth and where they could take
10:48margins, where they could take
10:49profitability, etc., right? Uh guess
10:52what? Like we got a long long flipping
10:55flapjack and way to go. A long way to go
10:57in regards to this one. So you can't get
10:58too caught up in the short term. And so
11:01you know I pulled up the list of the
11:03biggest restaurant chains by market cap,
11:05right? You have Mickey De's, McDonald's
11:07178 billion. Chipotle, Chipotle, 44
11:11billion. Yum Brands 38 billion.
11:13Restaurant Brands 40 uh 34 billion.
11:15Darden restaurants about 24 billion.
11:17Right? Listen,
11:20all these chains got built out over
11:22several decades, right? And all them had
11:24countless crap to go through in the
11:26short term. All of them. so much BS, so
11:29much baloney, you know, like like think
11:31about, [clears throat] you know, all the
11:33the, you know, inflationary times they
11:36had to go through or deflationary times
11:37or recessions or lawsuits or health
11:41scares. I mean, think about that for a
11:43moment. And yet, you know, over the long
11:46term, these became massive companies.
11:48And so whenever you're thinking about
11:50companies like this that have a, you
11:51know, a 10year plus runway of growth
11:54ahead, like just understand there's
11:56going to this is not the last time
11:57Cheesecake's going to go through crap.
11:59They're going to [clears throat] go
12:00through a lot more. And as a long-term
12:02investor, you have to be okay with that.
12:04And that's what all stocks go through.
12:06And so if you really love a stock for
12:07the long term, you take advantage of it
12:10when it dips, right? And you get a great
12:12opportunity to buy and load up on
12:13shares. And then you throw them in the
12:15filing cabinet and you throw them in the
12:16filing cabinet and you hold it over the
12:18next several years and you know you
12:20prosper. But just understand this is not
12:22the last thing any restaurant chain's
12:25going to go through where oh gas prices
12:26are up or inflation's up or tomatoes are
12:29more expensive or vegetables, you know,
12:31like it just is what it is, man. Welcome
12:33to business. Welcome to the restaurant
12:34industry, right? So keep that in mind.
12:38Keep that in mind. Okay. All righty. Uh,
12:41next up here, so before we actually get
12:42into how oil prices affects Celsius and
12:44ELF and also share some news in regards
12:45to that, I want to let you guys know the
12:47pinned comment down there today. If you
12:49want access to develop your own scaling
12:51plan, a six, seven, eight figure
12:53portfolio, learn how to spot winning
12:54stocks before everyone else does. Build
12:56a portfolio that will take care of you.
12:57Learn when to buy and sell. Avoid
12:59beginner mistakes that cost you
13:01thousands. Ascend from just taking
13:03Jeremy's tips and actually learn how to
13:05play his game on a high level, right?
13:06Build a portfolio that you can hold with
13:08confidence. get access to see the moves
13:10I'm making each week, access to
13:12thousandx.com,
13:13access to exclusive videos from learning
13:15from me, all that good stuff. That will
13:16be the pinned comment down there today.
13:18That will be to apply to join my private
13:20group and become the most confident
13:22investor you can. All righty, ladies and
13:24gentlemen, let's get into oil prices
13:26affecting Celsius, ELF, and some news.
13:28Okay, in regards to these two stocks,
13:30listen, if you look at a company like
13:33ELF, right? ELF can be affected by
13:37oil prices in a few ways. Prochemical
13:39ingredients. Many cosmetics use
13:41petrochemicals derived directly from
13:43crude oil. When oil prices surge, uh raw
13:46ingredient costs go up. Transportation
13:48and packaging. Higher fuel costs make
13:50global shipping, freight, and packaging
13:52more expensive. And ELF has estimated, I
13:54think this is the most recent quarter
13:56actually, estimated that if crude oil
13:58averages around $100 a barrel, the
13:59company faces 15 to$20 million in
14:01incremental cost headwinds. Okay. So now
14:06keep in mind when we're talking about
14:08ELF's products, many of them are very
14:10small. Okay. Very small and very light.
14:14So does this negatively affect E.L.F. as
14:18far as transportation? Yes, but not that
14:20much. I would say this probably matters
14:22a little bit more in regards to
14:25ingredients. Okay. So just something to
14:26kind of keep in mind there in regards to
14:29this particular company. Now, something
14:31some people get scared about is this
14:33discretionary spending slowdown.
14:34Elevated fuel prices also leave
14:36consumers with less disposable income,
14:38which can slow down retail demand for
14:39beauty products. Listen,
14:42I don't care if gas prices of $4, $8 or
14:46$2, okay? If somebody's going to get
14:48cosmetics products, they're getting
14:50cosmetics pro products. Okay? And when
14:52we're talking about E.L.F., They're the
14:54company that's the most well positioned
14:57to prosper under tighter economic
15:00conditions because if everybody's got a
15:03ton of money, they might, you know, uh,
15:06buy more expensive makeup and beauty
15:08products. But if things are a little
15:10tighter, guess what? 75% of E.L.F.'s
15:13products are priced at $10 or under.
15:16Okay? 75% are priced at $10 and under.
15:20So, the way I would look at this is
15:23E.L.F. is always in a great position
15:26regardless of the economy, regardless of
15:27oil prices. But if people are tighter on
15:30money, they're not going to stop buying
15:32cosmetics products. If they need
15:34mascara, they're going to buy the flip
15:36and flapjack and mascara. Okay? If they
15:38need eyeshadow, they're going to get the
15:39eyeshadow. If they need, you know, some
15:42stuff for their lips, they're buying it.
15:45They might not buy the more expensive
15:46brands that are maybe 30 bucks, 40 bucks
15:48a product, 50 bucks. But you know what?
15:51They'll go get some E.L.F. because
15:52E.L.F. is known for having great quality
15:54products at very affordable prices.
15:56Okay? And so that's something to kind of
15:58keep in mind there. Now, what about
16:00Celsius, right? Uh last time I checked,
16:03Celsius doesn't fill their cans with
16:06gas. Although it might gas you up when
16:08you have it, right? So, here's just some
16:11photos from the private group over the
16:13past few days. We have amazing private
16:15group community of the Celsius
16:16shareholders. Like lot of Celsius
16:18shareholders in the private group that
16:19have been buying the stock over the past
16:21month or two. And so, you know,
16:23everybody's always sharing photos when
16:24they go to the grocery store or other
16:25stores. And, you know, just look at
16:28these photos. Just tell me what you tell
16:31me what you notice. Okay? Tell me what
16:33you notice. Well, what I notice is
16:38gosh, that looks really freaking heavy
16:42and really freaking big to transport
16:44around. Okay, we're talking about when
16:47you're a drink company like Celsius,
16:49right? the the the distribution cost, it
16:52just has to be more expensive. Like at
16:55the end of the day, this stuff is
16:56transported on semiis, right? And if
17:00semis are paying the highest fuel prices
17:02in history, they're going to have to
17:05offset that somehow, right? And so the
17:08cost ends up getting put down to
17:10companies like Celsius, right? And so
17:13it's definitely something that could
17:15could negatively impact Celsius margins
17:18in the short term unless they can offset
17:21it with a price increase. Okay, just
17:24something to kind of keep in mind there.
17:26But at the end of the day, like listen,
17:28this is another short-term thing. At the
17:29end of the day, uh oil prices go up, oil
17:32prices go down. Uh semis are charging
17:34more to distribute the product or less
17:36like you know PepsiCo is going to charge
17:37them like like at the end of the day
17:38that all moves around. Right? Now,
17:41here's something. Uh, this is this is
17:44stuff that's posted. So, in the private
17:46group, we have members from all over the
17:47world, right? I would say about 60%
17:50maybe 65% of our members are in the
17:52United States and the other, you know,
17:5435 to 40% are international, right? And
17:57so, this is one of our private group
17:58members in France. Like, look at this.
18:00This is all Celsius has for distribution
18:02in the store as of right now. Like,
18:03imagine what Celsius can have in a store
18:05like this, you know, 3 years from now, 5
18:07years from now, right? Like you look at
18:09their distribution they have in the
18:10United States and then think about the
18:12long-term opportunity in somewhere like
18:13France right uh this is posted by a
18:16private group member in Netherlands
18:18currently still a small piece of shell
18:20space but on the other side they have a
18:22presence now uh they need to just
18:23continue to build brand recognition
18:25right I mean we're talking about like
18:26this is you know very small early
18:30beginnings here for Celsius really when
18:31there comes to their international
18:33expansion and the long-term opportunity
18:35there is unbelievable right uh Celsius
18:37Celsius. The wealthy is struggling to
18:39keep stores stocked here in Australia.
18:41We got a member in Australia. Um, you
18:44know, just very early days in regards to
18:46international expansion for Celsius. And
18:48I was like, think where this could be
18:49long term, right? Portugal. Portugal.
18:52Remember in Portugal posted this one,
18:54right? It's cute. It's like cute. It's
18:56like, oh, there it is. It's like, you
18:58know, a little little bit on the shelf,
19:00you know, and it's just like just think
19:01where the long-term opportunity is for
19:04Celsius as it really builds this
19:06business international. Like, oh, such a
19:08big opportunity. And then Alani, that's
19:10an completely untapped opportunity. So,
19:12you know, my opinion, the next two to
19:14three years are really going to be
19:15focused on Celsius building
19:17international. But then think about like
19:19the 2030 plus opportunity for Alani to
19:21build international. Like I'm sure
19:23Celsius isn't going to be just like
19:25content with Alani being USA only. Like
19:29of course they're going to want to build
19:30out in uh you know around the world as
19:33well. Just something to kind of keep in
19:34mind there. Right now here's a deal.
19:38Okay. We got other news that just came
19:39out here in the last few hours. Private
19:41group member shared this inside the the
19:43Discord chat. Right. A Celsius director
19:46bought 36,000
19:48shares
19:49of Celsius for $1 million. There's a
19:52second insider buy for Celsius in less
19:54than a week after the CEO bought
19:56$500,000 worth of shares. So, here we
19:59are. We're in a situation here where
20:02people, you know, inside this
20:04organization
20:05are putting their money out there and
20:09it's big money, man. Like, this isn't
20:11small amounts of money. You got to
20:12understand these people aren't like
20:13billionaires that are making these buys
20:16here. So, when these guys go to buy,
20:18like it's big. Like if if if you know, I
20:22don't know, Mark Zuckerberg went and
20:24bought a million dollars worth of of
20:26Meta stock, who cares, right? It's like
20:29it's literally meaningless because his
20:30net worth is such a ridiculous number,
20:33right? Um if if Elon Musk went and
20:36bought a million dollars of of Tesla
20:38stock, who cares? Like it's it's like
20:40it's worth like a trillion dollars. Like
20:41it's it's literally irrelevant. But I'm
20:42telling you, to you know, people like
20:44this director, a million dollars matters
20:46a lot. uh to the CEO who bought $500,000
20:49worth of shares. It's actually a
20:50significant amount of chips to put on
20:52the table. And so something to keep in
20:55mind here, man, you know, the the big,
20:57you know, these these guys that are
20:59important to the organization are
21:00putting their money on the line and
21:01they're saying, "This stock has great
21:04long-term upside." You know, that that
21:06there's there's no other reason to go
21:07buy your shares other than that. There's
21:09no reason for a director to say, "I'm
21:10going to go buy a million dollar worth
21:11of stock." There's no reason for the CEO
21:13to say, "I'm going to go buy $500,000
21:14worth of stock." Unless you feel the
21:16stock has a ton of upside when it comes
21:19to selling a stock, very important you
21:21understand this. If a a CEO sells some
21:24shares, right, or a director sells some
21:26shares, there could be a million
21:28reasons. Maybe they need that money to
21:30pay taxes. Maybe they need that money
21:32because a family member needs money.
21:34Maybe they need that money because they
21:35want to use it for a down payment on a
21:36mansion. Maybe they need that money
21:38because they go just went and bought a
21:40SF90 Ferrari, right? Like, who knows?
21:43Maybe they they sold those shares
21:45because, you know, they they um they
21:48sold the shares because they don't
21:49believe in the company anymore or they
21:51think the stock's going. There's a
21:52million reasons why an insider could
21:56sell a stock, right? But to buy a stock,
21:59you only buy a stock for one reason. One
22:02reason only. Because you think it's
22:04going a lot higher. And it's as simple
22:06as that. Selling a stock, these guys
22:08sell a stock, it could be a billion
22:10different reasons. Buying one reason,
22:12because you believe it's going higher.
22:14It's as simple as that, right? And so
22:17with these companies like Celsius and
22:18and ELF, if you believe these ones have
22:20great long-term upside, right? Listen,
22:24oil's up 83% this year, okay? That
22:27number is going to go up, that number is
22:28going to go down, it's going to go all
22:30around. But at the end of the day, it
22:33doesn't go up 83% every year. Okay? And
22:37like I've been in the market 18 years
22:38and I've seen oil price be crazy. Like
22:40my first year of investing in the
22:42market, I got in the end of08. In the
22:44first several months, oil crashed. Like
22:47I remember oil went down to like 30
22:48bucks a barrel. And I remember like
22:50being able to fill up my car that got
22:52like 8 miles a gallon back then. Uh be
22:54able to fill it up in Arizona for like
22:56under $2 a gallon. And that was amazing
22:57cuz before that I was paying like $4 a
22:59gallon. Um and so just understand man
23:02these these all this stuff comes and
23:04goes. Oil's 105. It could be 155 6
23:08months from now. Could be, you know, 55
23:106 months from now. It could still be 105
23:126 months from now. That all comes and
23:14goes. So at the end of the day, great
23:16companies remain. And then great
23:18companies continue to build their
23:20business. They get a lot bigger. They
23:22get a lot stronger. Their income
23:23statements get stronger over time. Their
23:25margins get stronger over time. their
23:26profitability gets stronger over time.
23:28It doesn't work in a perfect line,
23:29though, you know? It doesn't work in a
23:32perfect line. That's not how this game
23:33goes, okay? It's a process.
23:37And I like Celsius, and I really like
23:39ELF. And I like the long-term upside
23:41there. Where those stocks are 2 weeks
23:43from now, who knows? Celsius could be 25
23:462 weeks from now. It could be 35. ELF
23:48could be 85 bucks 2 weeks from now. It
23:50could be 115 two bucks from now. I don't
23:52know. And I don't care. All I know is
23:53those stocks have massive long-term up.
23:55I mean, how how high do I think Celsius
23:57is going? I think Celsius longterm could
23:59be a $100 stock. ELF long-term, I think,
24:02could be a several hundred stock. So,
24:04yeah, there's that. Okay. All right.
24:07Next up here, uh, let's talk about a
24:08stock I spent $100,000
24:10on today. Will give me my projections.
24:12And I'm so excited to share this. This
24:14is why I love doing YouTube. I love to
24:15teach people, but I I also love to share
24:18what stocks I'm buying just because it's
24:21just so fun to me. It's so freaking fun.
24:23I like I'm 10 years into this game and I
24:25just think it's so fun. I love like
24:27sharing my bullish thesis on a stock,
24:29like talking about it publicly, right?
24:32And I think I got a big opportunity
24:34here. I think I'm going to make a lot of
24:35money. Maybe I don't. You know, over the
24:38last 10 years, I talked about a lot of
24:39stocks. Not all of them turned out well,
24:41right? But man, did some of them end up
24:43turning out insane, right? Some of them
24:45end up being lifechanging stocks. The
24:47stock I bought here today,
24:50RH. I bought RH in the public account
24:52for the first time ever. First time I
24:56bought RH in the public account, did a
24:58$50,000 one-off buy. Now, additionally,
25:02I bought another $50,000 today in a
25:04private portfolio. So, if you add up the
25:06math on this, I bought $150,000 of RH in
25:10less than a week. Okay. Now,
25:13[clears throat]
25:14I want to really explain. This is one of
25:16those stocks I think a lot of people are
25:18going to have trouble wrapping their
25:20heads around, okay? And I really want to
25:23explain why I think I have something
25:26special here, okay? And I could be
25:27completely wrong, but I think I got
25:30something special and I really need to
25:32explain this to everybody, right? But
25:33like I get the sentiment is some people
25:35are like scared. They're like, "Oh man,
25:37I don't know. This is a scary one, man."
25:39Like RH like uh you know, if I bought
25:41Amazon, no one's questioning that,
25:42right? If I buy American Express, no
25:44one's questioning that. If I buy
25:45Netflix, no one's questioning that. RH
25:47is like, but why? I'll show you why. The
25:51stock has gone down 82% the past five
25:54years. 82%.
25:58That's awful performance, right? Just
26:01absolutely awful. And here I am, there's
26:04a stock that's down 82% the past 5
26:06years. And I'm like, I'm about to put
26:08this stock in the public account. Like,
26:10to make it to the public account, dude,
26:11you need to be freaking legit. Look at
26:14the stocks. Look at the stocks I have in
26:16the public account. Legendary.
26:18Legendary.
26:20And this doesn't even account for some
26:21of the stocks I sold with like stupid
26:23gains. Like remember Tesla was like a
26:242,000% plus gainer in the public
26:26account. Used to be the biggest position
26:28in the public account and obviously took
26:29all my profits on that one. Made just
26:30crazy money. Like this is a portfolio of
26:33legends. This portfolio back in the day
26:35used to hold Nvidia. I wish I just held
26:37through, man. I took a short-term profit
26:39on that one. like like I've held the
26:41most legendary of the legendary stocks
26:43in this portfolio and so if I add you to
26:46the public account shoot I gotta see
26:49something. Okay. So, it's performed
26:52horrible obviously when it comes to the
26:53stock, right? But the previous 5 years,
26:55do you know what the performance with RH
26:57was? 2,200%
27:01gain. I repeat, 2,200%
27:07gain the previous 5-year period.
27:11Not too bad, huh? Not too bad. Now, from
27:14the IPO, this company went IPO in in
27:172012, right through into the fourth
27:19quarter of 2015, the stock went from 30
27:22bucks to 100 like that. And then in a
27:27matter of months, it went from 100 to
27:3025. The stock dropped 75%
27:34just like that.
27:36RH is freaking a crazy stock. And you
27:40might not think it cuz you're like,
27:41dude, it's a furniture. Like at the end
27:43of the day, like this company sells
27:44furniture, right? And they got their
27:45restaurants now as well. But at the end
27:46of the day, it's a furniture company.
27:48And you're looking at their stock and
27:49you're like, how is a freaking furniture
27:51company this volatile? Like this looks
27:53like what you would expect from, I don't
27:54know, Palanteer or or or Nvidia or
27:57semiconductor stock like AMD where it
27:58just goes through these massive up and
28:00down swings, right? At the end of the
28:02day, this company is a cyclical company.
28:04Okay? And so the expansion phases are
28:07unbelievable.
28:09The depressions in these stocks are
28:12absolutely
28:14brutal. As I illustrated here, a stock
28:18to go down 82% over a 5year span. I
28:22mean, that is just absolutely brutal,
28:24right? And it's not that it went down
28:26all at once. Like there was that initial
28:28huge move down, right? But at the end of
28:30the day, RH moved down over a huge
28:32period of time, right? And every time
28:34you got some hope that the stock was
28:35coming back, it just went lower. And
28:38that's cyclical stocks, man. It is
28:41awful. [snorts] Now, there's some very
28:43exciting things going on for this
28:45specific company that I think are going
28:47to be game changers over the next
28:49several years. Okay, so I don't know if
28:51you guys got to see this video from last
28:52night. These two stocks are the next to
28:54sore, right? I spoke about a ton of
28:56different stocks and a ton of different
28:57subjects in that video as I do most
28:59videos just like this video, right? But
29:01in that video, I brought up Cabela's,
29:03right? Cabela was one of my best
29:05investments back in the day. Like, gosh,
29:08was that a great investment. Like, it
29:10was one of my biggest money-making
29:11stocks. Um, you know, kind of in that
29:142011
29:15to like 2014 time frame. Like, I just
29:18made a fortune of money on that stock,
29:19right? And one of my one of my things
29:23around Cabelas was Cabela back in those
29:26days was changing their store format.
29:29And Cabela used to build these
29:30unbelievably ridiculously huge
29:34buildings. I mean, we're talking like
29:36160,000 square feet, 200,000 square
29:38feet, quarter, like quarter million
29:40square feet. Like, it was just
29:40ridiculous. Okay? And the construction
29:43cost on that was just astronomical. And
29:45then it's just it was not a good use of
29:47capital. Okay? And so they started
29:49building these stores that were more in
29:51the 60,000 to 90,000 foot or maybe it
29:55was even 40 to 80. I can't remember the
29:57specific number. It's been over a decade
29:58since I owned that stock, but it was
30:00somewhere around like 40,000 to 80,000
30:02square feet or 60,000 to 90,000, right?
30:04And so they were cutting down footprint
30:06and they were starting to make way more
30:07profit um you know per square foot and
30:11the stores were margins were increasing
30:13exponentially. Okay. Now, when it comes
30:15to RH, right, this company builds these
30:19ridiculous like stores. Okay. and and
30:22they're beautiful, but it's just
30:24astronomically like ridiculously priced.
30:27And you know, when we're talking about
30:29these stores, RH builds, they're like
30:31multilevel.
30:33They involve elaborate staircases and
30:36elaborate elevators in crazy steel
30:40construction cuz they're almost building
30:41like a high-rise and then they'll put a
30:42roof on the excuse me, a roof. They'll
30:45put a restaurant on the roof, right?
30:47It's unbelievable. But the construction
30:49cost of that is just ridiculous. Like I
30:51mean you could be looking at, you know,
30:54$50 million, $100 million to build one
30:56of these. And also like it's it's it's
31:00not that it's just expensive, but it's
31:02like the amount of time it takes to open
31:05one is years. Well, because like I said,
31:07you're you're building a multilevel huge
31:09structure that's like very high quality
31:12materials. It's it's so expensive,
31:14right? And so time consuming. Well,
31:17they're changing up the game here. Okay,
31:19so now they're going to start building
31:21what they call RH compounds. Now, this
31:24is going to be really, really
31:26fascinating cuz what it's going to be,
31:27it's going to be multiple onestory
31:30buildings. Okay, multiple one-story
31:33buildings, which if you understand
31:36anything about construction, okay, you
31:38understand it is going to be so much
31:41simpler to build multiple one-story
31:44buildings and so much more cost
31:46effective than building these mega
31:49mansion structures that RH builds right
31:51now. Like, it's a night and day
31:53difference, okay? Like, you can get one
31:55of these structures built in, you know,
31:58a month or a couple months. It it's
32:00incredible, right? You're not building
32:02one of these bad boys in a couple
32:03months. Like that's not that's just not
32:05happening. Okay. And so these are going
32:07to be fascinating and they're going to
32:09have it all like kind of segmented, you
32:11know, depending upon if you're looking
32:12at this sort of furniture or if you're
32:14looking at maybe, you know, more let's
32:16call it um like I don't know fake plants
32:19and mirrors and decor related stuff or
32:21do you want to look at you know uh more
32:24like we can call it modern furniture or
32:27contemporary furniture or those sorts of
32:29things, right? In the middle of these
32:30compounds, they're going to place like
32:32around a 4,000 ft restaurant and wine
32:35bar. Now, RH's restaurants are top tier,
32:38okay? Like top tier. Like phenomenal
32:42food quality. I've been to I've been to
32:43the San Francisco location. I've been to
32:45the Marin location. I've been to the New
32:48York locations multiple times. I've been
32:51to the Charlotte, North Carolina uh
32:54location, and I've probably been to
32:56another location or two. Restaurants,
32:58phenomenal service, phenomenal food
33:01quality. Like you could go there on like
33:02an anniversary like that. like that's
33:04how like nice and how good the food
33:06quality is at these places. Okay. And so
33:09they're going to put one of those in the
33:10middle of the structure essentially,
33:12right? And so
33:14I think the concept's brilliant because
33:18they're going to be able to cut down on
33:19cost, but I also think it's going to be
33:20a cooler experience than actually just
33:22cuz the stores, they look great from the
33:25outside. The issue though is once you go
33:27into an RH, like it's just, you know,
33:29it's just a lot of kind of walking
33:31around in the same space. These are
33:32going to be connected with like
33:34fountains and trees and like you know
33:36you're going to walk in between
33:38buildings and it it's going to be a
33:39pretty darn cool experience, right?
33:41Glass roofed walkways and um yeah, like
33:45I'm looking really forward to
33:47experiencing this once they actually
33:49open one. They've got a couple that are
33:51under construction right now in Florida.
33:53So do keep that in mind. Okay. Now the
33:57other thing I don't know if you guys
33:58listen to the conference call on
33:59thousandx.com but if you care anything
34:01about RH and you want to do some dating
34:02on this company listen to the conference
34:04call. Okay so Gary Freriedman on that
34:07conference call was talking about like
34:10partners on these projects would be much
34:12more financially interested in doing
34:14this with RH. Why? Let me explain.
34:19one of these buildings. Okay. It's hard
34:21to get RH to partner with other
34:25landlords or get financing and things
34:27like that because the buildings are so
34:30ridiculous. Like if let's say RH went
34:32bankrupt. Who the freak is buying this
34:34building? Like who else is going to go
34:37there? That's just ridiculous, right?
34:39And so it's completely like unrealistic.
34:42However, with these new compounds, you
34:45could get financing much easier of
34:46people to partner because let's say RH
34:48went bankrupt, right? And so now this is
34:51is available. You could put restaurants
34:53in these. You could put different stores
34:55in these. It's so so much more
34:56compelling to finance projects like this
35:00for our age than something like this.
35:02Okay? And Gary Freriedman was explaining
35:03that in the conference call. So it's
35:05really really valuable to listen to
35:06stuff like that and you really start to
35:08understand oh this is actually like a
35:10bigger game changer than I think anybody
35:12realizes. Now Gary Freeman was also
35:14talking about these new formats can be
35:17about 50% more cost effective 50%
35:21than the old structures like this is the
35:23one they just opened in Newport Beach uh
35:26two years ago which that's now uh RH's
35:28most successful or second most
35:30successful location from my
35:31understanding. The only one that's
35:32beaten them is a New York location,
35:34right, that I've been to a few times.
35:36But uh like that's incredible. Like if
35:39you can save that much cost that what
35:41this is going to do to RH's expansion
35:44ability, right? And what this is going
35:46to be do the margins. Now, if this is
35:48also a cooler experience, you're going
35:50to get more traffic as well, right? More
35:53traffic. So, this is like
35:56is brilliant on multiple levels. And I'm
35:58not talking multiple levels like RH's
36:00old uh store format was here right now.
36:03Additionally, they talked about RH
36:05Estates. So RH Estates is a luxury home
36:07furnishing collection in brand extension
36:09by RH focused on traditional and classic
36:12classic design reimagined through a
36:14contemporary lens. And this collection
36:16Gary Freriedman is talking about this is
36:18going to be huge for the company over
36:20time. We'll see like that's one of those
36:22things like you know some some
36:23collections hit some miss. We'll see. RH
36:26Modern's always been a huge success for
36:28them. So, this is one of those things
36:30I'm like, I don't know, we'll see. He
36:31He's talking about this could
36:33exponentially increase the TAM of the
36:34business. So, just something to kind of
36:35keep in mind there. Right now, here's
36:38the deal with RH stock. Where's the
36:39stock going? Okay, listen. If the market
36:41gets ugly, short-term, the stock going
36:43to 90 to $100. Okay, so still, you know,
36:46we can call it 20 to 30% more downside
36:48from here. If the market gets ugly,
36:50okay, if we get a world ending
36:52recession, the company's going bankrupt,
36:54BK, lose it all. And I say, how do you
36:56feel comfortable investing? I'll feel
36:58comfortable because I won't get
36:59overleveraged in a position. Well, first
37:01off, I don't even take leverage out for
37:02positions, but when I say overlever, I
37:04mean I won't invest too much that I'm
37:06afraid to lose it, right? Like, and so
37:08that's the way I look at that, right?
37:10And then next up here, like real
37:12estate's been dead for years. We all
37:14know that, right? So, it's hard to see
37:16real estate getting much worse than this
37:18over the next few years cuz like
37:20literally this is about the worst real
37:21estate market we've ever seen. And so,
37:24real estate in my opinion comes back
37:262027 to 2030. And so, if that occurs, I
37:30think the stock goes to anywhere between
37:32$300 and 550. Even under my bold case, I
37:36don't have the stock going to 700 plus
37:37like it was at the peak. My best case
37:40scenario is it goes to about 550, right,
37:42over the next few years. But that's
37:43significant upside and it's hard for me
37:45to find stocks out there that I think
37:47have a potential that for me to we can
37:50call it 2x to 4x my money on that stock
37:54over the next you know uh 3 to 5 years.
37:57It's hard to find those sort of
37:58opportunities and so this is one and I'm
38:00willing to take it right and I will tell
38:02you I have worked patience on this
38:04stock. This is a stock I have followed
38:06for over 10 years and I've kept so, you
38:10know, track of the company so well
38:12throughout their upcycles and down
38:13cycles and I've just been waiting for
38:15the perfect opportunity to start
38:16building a big position in the stock and
38:19here it is. The moment is finally here,
38:21right? And so it has been patience and
38:24I'm glad I've waited all this time cuz
38:26now all the pieces are coming together
38:28and you know Tesla was another good one
38:32back in the day. Tesla. I followed that
38:34company ever since it went IPO in like
38:352011, right? 2010, 2011 and never bought
38:38it, never bought it. And then everything
38:40started to come together kind of toward
38:41like 2018, 2019. And I'm like, oh my
38:44gosh, I got now is my opportunity. I
38:46built my position and I made obviously
38:48life-changing money in that stock back
38:49in the day, right? And I wouldn't look
38:51at RH as, oh, I'm going to make
38:52life-changing money in it. I'm just
38:54looking at it from the perspective, I
38:55think I can make a lot of money in the
38:56stock over the next few years, right?
38:58And I'm willing to risk what I'm willing
39:00to risk, right? And so
39:04I like it. I like it a lot. Okay.
39:06Appreciate you guys joining me as
39:07always. Uh thanks so much for being
39:08here. I'm the head of this horseman
39:10right now, but I should be back on the
39:11video feed soon for you guys. And uh
39:13once again, pinned comment down there if
39:15you're looking to apply. Join the
39:16private group. Get access to everything
39:17you need access to become the most
39:19confident best investor you possibly can
39:21and get in a group with other very
39:22successful investors, six, seven, eight
39:24figures and beyond. Much love and have a
39:26great day.

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