I Re-Created A Quant Trading Strategy With Claude Code (Nobel Prize Method) — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:00There's one calculation that every
- 0:01single quant desk on earth runs every
- 0:03single morning, and it's not which way
- 0:05the market's going. Most traders don't
- 0:07even know the real question that it
- 0:09answers. At the center of it sits an
- 0:11equation that won a Nobel Prize in
- 0:13economics. And in this video, I'm going
- 0:15to rebuild the way a quant actually
- 0:17thinks from the ground up. Here's
- 0:18exactly what you're going to walk away
- 0:19with. The full method explained properly
- 0:21so you don't need any sort of math or
- 0:22technical background. A cloud code skill
- 0:25which runs it for you on any asset that
- 0:27you trade. By the end of this video,
- 0:28you'll have it fully installed on your
- 0:30computer so you can have quant-like
- 0:31intelligence at your fingertips. And a
- 0:33custom TradingView indicator that puts
- 0:35the entire framework in a quantifiable
- 0:38data set on your chart. And here's the
- 0:40part that a lot of videos like this
- 0:41don't include. We're actually going to
- 0:43go backtest the data for 15 years and
- 0:45look at how this strategy actually
- 0:47performs with real market data. Oh, and
- 0:50all of this is for free. I'm going to
- 0:51show you how to install it at the end
- 0:52using the link in the description below.
- 0:54You can claim all the assets and prompts
- 0:56from today's video. So, let me give you
- 0:57some quick context as to why I'm
- 0:59covering this. I've been deep in the
- 1:00markets for the last 7 years, and I
- 1:02noticed a few years ago that there was a
- 1:04massive shift happening with AI. I was
- 1:06actually one of the first people to put
- 1:07out AI trading bot videos on YouTube.
- 1:10And since then, we've had an absolute
- 1:11explosion with the intelligence of these
- 1:13models, which in my opinion make them
- 1:15absolutely essential if you're a trader.
- 1:17So, the fact we have this information at
- 1:19our fingertips, the fact that you can
- 1:20now compress strategies into a single
- 1:23skill, into a single file that you can
- 1:25use over and over again, opens up a
- 1:27plethora of opportunities. So, in
- 1:29today's video, I wanted to take a
- 1:30concept that real quant traders use and
- 1:33condense it down into something that you
- 1:34can tangibly interact with. And that's
- 1:36the power of AI. You now have the power
- 1:38of strategies and indicators and data
- 1:41that quant firms used to have access to.
- 1:42And as a retail trader, you can now have
- 1:44access to the exact same stuff. So, I
- 1:47personally believe there's a massive
- 1:48edge for anyone who augments their
- 1:50trading with AI. But in order for you to
- 1:51understand what we're actually building
- 1:52here, let's talk about the theory behind
- 1:54today's video. I've basically reduced a
- 1:56quant's thinking down to eight ideas,
- 1:58and I'll walk you through in order how a
- 2:00quant would reason with a real trade,
- 2:02with each idea building on the last. I
- 2:04actually got inspiration for this
- 2:05concept from Louis Jackson, who did a
- 2:07great video on the Markov method. And
- 2:09that method, if you've seen it,
- 2:10basically models which direction the
- 2:12market is moving in. And it's a
- 2:13reasonable way to think about regimes.
- 2:15But today, I'm going to present the
- 2:17other half of the picture, the
- 2:18calculation that actually determines the
- 2:20stakes behind real positioning, aka how
- 2:23much money actually goes on the table
- 2:25per trade. And on a real quant desk,
- 2:27that decision is treated with just as
- 2:29much rigor as the overall direction of
- 2:31the market, because ultimately that's
- 2:32what determines profitability and
- 2:35survival of a trader. So, before we get
- 2:36into anything else, let's actually
- 2:37define what the word quant really means,
- 2:40because it gets thrown around
- 2:41constantly, but I rarely see it
- 2:43explained. A quant [music] stands for
- 2:44quantitative analyst. These people often
- 2:46study advanced mathematics, physics, or
- 2:49computer science, and funds will recruit
- 2:51top talent often on some of the highest
- 2:53salaries in finance. Their job is
- 2:55essentially to replace opinion with a
- 2:57real measurement. So, discretionary
- 2:59traders, they'll build a view on the
- 3:01market. Quants will build a model to
- 3:04represent that view. They'll test it on
- 3:06history, they'll model it on different
- 3:07variables, and they come up with a real,
- 3:09tangible system based on real
- 3:11constraints. They don't usually work as
- 3:13lone geniuses, although there are a few.
- 3:15They usually split up into different
- 3:17departments which handle different
- 3:18segments of the market. One team will
- 3:20typically research signals, one on risk
- 3:22and sizing, because every single element
- 3:25that comprises a trade requires a
- 3:26different skill set and different
- 3:28parameters. Now, of course, I'm
- 3:29generalizing here, because every single
- 3:31fund operates differently, but at a
- 3:33large scale, this is typically how you
- 3:34see them operate. Now, if you're a
- 3:36trader, here's the fundamental
- 3:37difference between how you might see a
- 3:39chart and how a professional quant
- 3:41trader might see a chart. Most traders
- 3:43just see price, so they'll look at where
- 3:45it's been, they'll look at where it's
- 3:46going, and essentially the entire read
- 3:48on the market is directional. A quant
- 3:50will often analyze violence or
- 3:52volatility first. They'll look at how
- 3:54hard the market is moving independent of
- 3:57direction. So, a retail trader might
- 3:59think, "This feels dangerous." A quant
- 4:01would essentially hear an incomplete
- 4:03sentence. They'd be thinking, "Well,
- 4:04dangerous is a measurable quantity. So,
- 4:07what's the number?" So, instead of every
- 4:09morning looking at a price target like a
- 4:11retail trader, quants will look at
- 4:13volatility, value at risk, position
- 4:15sizing, Greeks, exposure, expected
- 4:17moves, and they'll apply stress test to
- 4:19market movement and essentially try and
- 4:21combine all of that into a single score.
- 4:23In today's video, I'm going to refer to
- 4:25that as the violence score, but I'm
- 4:27aware that it's a lot more nuanced than
- 4:28that in practice. And underneath that
- 4:31system is essentially a single mental
- 4:33model. And it's the most valuable idea
- 4:35that I want to present to you in this
- 4:37entire video. For every trade that you
- 4:38ever take, you'll essentially just ask
- 4:41two questions. Which way, so in which
- 4:43direction do I think price will move,
- 4:45and how much? So, how much am I willing
- 4:48to stake on this position? And the
- 4:49second question from the start of the
- 4:50video is something traders often get
- 4:53wrong, even though it's the most
- 4:55important in terms of profitability and
- 4:58survival in the market. And that's how
- 4:59you can have traders with a really high
- 5:01win rate, but they're actually not
- 5:02profitable. And how you can have traders
- 5:04with a lower win rate, but they are
- 5:06profitable over time because they
- 5:07understand when to size and how to size.
- 5:10Retail treats which way will price move
- 5:13as essentially the entire game. Position
- 5:15size is usually an afterthought. Whereas
- 5:17a quant will rank those two questions by
- 5:19how answerable they are. Which way is
- 5:22barely answerable. It's actually the
- 5:23weakest signal in trading. Whereas how
- 5:25much you actually stake is fully
- 5:27controllable. It's the one variable in
- 5:30trading that's actually at your command.
- 5:32So, often a quant will invert energy
- 5:34allocation, meaning they'll put minimum
- 5:35effort on a question that can't be
- 5:37answered reliably, and then they'll put
- 5:39maximum rigor on the variable that can
- 5:41be controlled completely. So, the
- 5:43industry, the entire trading industry,
- 5:45sells you one question, and it's a sexy
- 5:47sell. Price is going to move up, price
- 5:49is going to move down, but the reliable
- 5:51funds over time have actually compounded
- 5:53their wealth answering the boring
- 5:55question and compiling it into a
- 5:57framework that they can use. And today,
- 5:58the really powerful thing I'm going to
- 5:59teach you is how to put a framework into
- 6:02a quant skill, and I'm going to give it
- 6:04to you today at the end of the video
- 6:05that you can repeatedly use. This, in my
- 6:07opinion, is the future of trading. So,
- 6:09let's go back to what I was discussing
- 6:10before, the violence score. Because in
- 6:12order to develop a quant-like model, we
- 6:14need to discuss why violence can
- 6:16actually be predictable. It has a
- 6:17property that market direction doesn't
- 6:19have, and you can see it clearly on the
- 6:21chart. Market chaos typically doesn't
- 6:23arrive in isolation, but instead in a
- 6:25series of clusters. So, for example, we
- 6:27can look at March 2020 in the S&P, which
- 6:29was absolute carnage, and then we can
- 6:31compare that to the FTX collapse on a
- 6:34different asset in Bitcoin in 2022, and
- 6:36it paints a similar picture, but on a
- 6:38completely different asset. A quant
- 6:40doesn't settle for just eyeballing that
- 6:41pattern. They want to define an exact
- 6:43number. So, for example, I'll walk you
- 6:44through the thought process. On a
- 6:46typical day, there's roughly a 10%
- 6:47chance of a violent move. On a top
- 6:49decile day, I actually ran this based on
- 6:5115 years of back-tested Bitcoin data, on
- 6:54a day after a violent move, that
- 6:56probability triples to 30%. That's the
- 6:59predictability I'm talking about. It's
- 7:01not 100%, but it's more predictable, and
- 7:03it's a number you can actually trade
- 7:05off. Then I went and checked the monthly
- 7:07data on the S&P 500. And if you go back
- 7:09to 1871, violent moves are twice as
- 7:11likely to follow violent months. So,
- 7:14that's 150 years of a completely
- 7:16different asset class, but it follows a
- 7:17similar law. So, violence isn't the one
- 7:19metric a quant would look at, but it is
- 7:21a metric [music] which can be
- 7:22quantified, assigned a probability, and
- 7:25thus developing a framework which you
- 7:27can trade off. What I just referenced is
- 7:28something called volatility clustering.
- 7:30It's one of the most reliable patterns
- 7:32in financial data, and this is
- 7:33essentially the quant's worldview.
- 7:35Direction is close to random, but
- 7:36violence carries genuine information
- 7:38about what might happen tomorrow. If
- 7:40you're confused, don't worry, I'll make
- 7:42it really simple. The cleanest way to
- 7:43hold this in your head is actually
- 7:45seismology, or earthquakes. A major
- 7:47earthquake tells you nothing about the
- 7:50specific direction a singular building
- 7:52might fall, but it tells you with higher
- 7:54confidence that more shaking might be
- 7:56coming. That is exactly how a quant
- 7:58reads a violent trading day. Zero
- 7:59information about direction, but
- 8:01substantial information about tomorrow's
- 8:03volatility. Stated as a rule, direction
- 8:05is unpredictable, whereas magnitude
- 8:07typically is predictable. Okay, here's
- 8:08where we get into the fun stuff, the
- 8:10Nobel Prize equation, which is an
- 8:12essential part of the framework that
- 8:13we're building today. Because we just
- 8:15confirmed that violence is predictable.
- 8:16So, the question now becomes, how do you
- 8:18predict it? And this is exactly where
- 8:20the Nobel Prize enters. In 2003, the
- 8:23economist Robert Engle won a Nobel Prize
- 8:26for solving this exact problem. His
- 8:28original model was called ARCH. His
- 8:30student Tim Bollerslev extended it to a
- 8:32system that trading desks still use
- 8:35today, GARCH. The Nobel Prize was for
- 8:37the discovery, but the GARCH extension
- 8:39is the tool that is still used in
- 8:41quantitative trading. GARCH stands for
- 8:43generalized autoregressive conditional
- 8:46heteroscedasticity. All right, I know
- 8:48that's an absolute tongue twister, but
- 8:49essentially it's a model that's used to
- 8:51predict market volatility, rather than,
- 8:53as we've been discussing, predicting the
- 8:54exact direction of asset prices. A quant
- 8:56models tomorrow's violence as a sum of
- 8:58three components: the base level the
- 9:00market always carries, which is the
- 9:02asset's personality, plus a fraction of
- 9:04today's shock, the aftershock component,
- 9:06and a fraction of today's violence
- 9:07level, which is the memory component. As
- 9:09an example, I fitted this to Bitcoin's
- 9:11entire 15-year history, and the weights
- 9:13it estimated tell you the whole story.
- 9:15The shock carries 15% of the weight, and
- 9:17the memory carries 85%. In practical
- 9:20terms, volatility is almost as
- 9:22persistent as it's mathematically
- 9:24possible to be. And that persistence is
- 9:26why the forecast works, because you're
- 9:28forecasting a quantity that hardly
- 9:30changes overnight. Note, this model does
- 9:32not deliberately claim directionality of
- 9:34an asset. It forecasts how violent
- 9:36tomorrow may be, but not in which
- 9:38direction. Any model which claims to
- 9:40accurately predict directionality needs
- 9:43to be met with a grain of salt because
- 9:45this model earned a Nobel Prize because
- 9:47it deliberately restricts its claims to
- 9:49what the data can actually support. And
- 9:51the restraint itself is a lesson in how
- 9:52quants actually think. Okay, so let's
- 9:54say you're a quant and you now have this
- 9:57violence forecast. Here's how it becomes
- 9:59deterministic of an actual position
- 10:01size. The reasoning runs as follows. My
- 10:03risk on any trade equals my size
- 10:05multiplied by the market's violence. I
- 10:07can't control the violence, so instead I
- 10:10control the size of my position. So step
- 10:12one is setting an actual limit for your
- 10:13account. The actual annual swing that
- 10:15you're prepared to tolerate.
- 10:16Institutional desks typically run around
- 10:1815%. Step two is reading the current
- 10:21market's level. So let me actually show
- 10:22you. This is the NASDAQ as I'm
- 10:24recording, which is moving at roughly
- 10:2730% annualized if you look at the storm
- 10:30gauge and the market violence percentage
- 10:32on the storm gauge. This, which I'm
- 10:34going to explain very shortly, is
- 10:36custom-built based on the entire
- 10:38framework. And I'm going to give it to
- 10:39you at the end, but let me explain. This
- 10:4130% number here means the market is more
- 10:43violent than 96% of the past year, which
- 10:47you could consider a storm by any
- 10:49reasonable definition. And notably, it
- 10:51began whilst the index was at all-time
- 10:53highs. As the next step, step three, you
- 10:55want to divide this number, so 15 over
- 10:5730, which gives you 1/2, which is this
- 10:59number here, this sizing number, which
- 11:02essentially means if a trade signal
- 11:04fires today, it receives half of your
- 11:07normal size allocation. Let's say on a
- 11:08$10,000 baseline, this would be around
- 11:11$5,000. The best analogy is like cruise
- 11:14control. The road's gradient changes
- 11:16constantly, but you can control your
- 11:18speed to hold steady. So in this case,
- 11:20the market's violence changes daily, but
- 11:22your account risk holds steady. And note
- 11:25the conditional. If a signal actually
- 11:26fires, the reasoning never generates
- 11:28entries. Entries belong to a different
- 11:31department, which is where you can use
- 11:32things like the Markov method to
- 11:34determine which directional environment
- 11:36we're in. But, you might think that
- 11:38[music] a strategy like this merely
- 11:40smooths the ride. So, it makes highs
- 11:42less high, and it makes lows less low.
- 11:45But, that's actually not true. In
- 11:46reality, it can produce more money.
- 11:48[music] And the reason is an empirical
- 11:50fact about markets. The worst losses in
- 11:52history do not occur on randomly
- 11:54distributed days. They cluster inside
- 11:57the violent periods. 2008, March 2020,
- 12:00the major crypto collapses. In each
- 12:02case, volatility was already elevated
- 12:05before maximum damage arrived. This is
- 12:08the aftershock logic. The shaking was
- 12:10already underway before the building
- 12:12eventually came down. So, by reducing
- 12:14size in a storm, you're refusing to
- 12:16carry full exposure during a period
- 12:18where there is a higher likelihood of an
- 12:20extreme event which could threaten your
- 12:22account. All right, we're about to
- 12:23build, but one final thing. I want to
- 12:25discuss a final piece of mindset,
- 12:27because I believe any serious
- 12:28practitioner, especially before you're
- 12:30about to use a model like this, should
- 12:31explain what a model can't do. This will
- 12:33never call a top or a bottom. It
- 12:35contains, in fact, no directional
- 12:37information whatsoever. You probably
- 12:39have many indicators, many other
- 12:40methods, and even your own discretionary
- 12:42biases to come up with those conclusions
- 12:44yourself. If there's a crash that erupts
- 12:47from a full period of calm, then even if
- 12:49you use this, you may still catch it
- 12:50with full size. That's where you need
- 12:52stop losses and drawdown protection.
- 12:54There are still shock events which can't
- 12:56always be predicted. And you'll see in a
- 12:58minute why this isn't hypothetical, it's
- 13:00actually in the data. If you're a trader
- 13:02that specifically trades breakouts and
- 13:04you've developed an edge during these
- 13:05expansionary periods, then naive
- 13:07volatility sizing could actually work
- 13:09against you. If you guys like this
- 13:10video, I'll make it a series, and that
- 13:12could be a future component. So, I can't
- 13:14claim that this model eliminates risk or
- 13:16will maximize everyone's trading
- 13:18strategy. But, what I can say is it's a
- 13:20damn good place to start if you're
- 13:21interested in getting more into
- 13:23quantitative trading, and the risk
- 13:25frameworks that real quantitative
- 13:27traders will use. I believe you can
- 13:29expand upon what I'm about to give you
- 13:31to make it even better, and in fact,
- 13:33that's something I'm going to bring to
- 13:34the channel in the future. So, of
- 13:36course, make sure you subscribe, and
- 13:37we're going to continue diving into this
- 13:39stuff. As AI gets better, so does our
- 13:41capabilities to make better tools for
- 13:43ourselves. All right, here we go.
- 13:44Everything we just walked through, the
- 13:46complete chain of reasoning I've encoded
- 13:49into a Claude skill that you can
- 13:51download. So, what you want to do is you
- 13:52want to use the link in the description
- 13:54below, follow the steps, and you'll get
- 13:55access to a GitHub. This GitHub has the
- 13:59entire GARCH method. So, it has the
- 14:01installation path, which you put into
- 14:04Claude code. It explains what the skill
- 14:06actually does. It explains the
- 14:08onboarding prompt, and then it has a
- 14:10Pine Script bonus, which I'll show you
- 14:12how to install on TradingView in a
- 14:14minute for you to get the exact overlay
- 14:17that I showed you before. So, what you
- 14:19want to do to install it is go into the
- 14:21installation section, click copy, then
- 14:23you want to go into Claude code. All
- 14:25right, so you want to paste it in. If
- 14:27you're on the terminal, {forward slash}
- 14:28plugin should work. If you have any
- 14:30issues, so if you're on the app, you can
- 14:32replace the {forward slash} with the
- 14:33word Claude if you have any errors. So,
- 14:35that's the route that I'm going to take.
- 14:37Now, it's running the plugin commands.
- 14:38It's installing the plugin, and the
- 14:40commands have successfully installed, so
- 14:42you now have the skill on your Claude.
- 14:45The other option, and this is the way
- 14:46that you can see the skill being written
- 14:48line by line, is clicking on
- 14:50garchmethod.md,
- 14:52and you can copy and paste this entire
- 14:54file, and you can put it into Claude
- 14:56code. And now, it's going to fetch the
- 14:58skill files from the repo. You don't
- 14:59need to do both methods. I'm just
- 15:01showing you both ways that you can
- 15:02install it in case you actually want to
- 15:04see things line by line. You can see
- 15:05it's installed the strategy and verified
- 15:07the strategy. So, what do you do now?
- 15:09Well, now you can just talk to it. It's
- 15:10a skill that you can talk to to verify
- 15:13against the exact method. So, let me
- 15:14show you an example. You could say,
- 15:16"What's the volatility forecast on
- 15:18Bitcoin?" And it's going to run directly
- 15:20from the skill, which is trained on all
- 15:22of this in the GitHub repo. And you can
- 15:24see that it's given me the Bitcoin
- 15:26volume forecast, 40.9% annualized. It's
- 15:29given me a calm regime. It's got the one
- 15:31day ahead forecast. The good thing about
- 15:33this is you can actually just query it.
- 15:34So, you could say, "Could you explain in
- 15:36simple terms what this means and how
- 15:38this should impact my Bitcoin position
- 15:40sizing?" So, you can actually speak to a
- 15:43skill that is trained on a real quant
- 15:44method. And you can actually just build
- 15:46on this over time. So, if you have
- 15:48refinements you want to make or
- 15:49improvements or if new models come out
- 15:51and we can refine it together even
- 15:53further, you can just train the skill so
- 15:55it gets better over time. And right now
- 15:57I'm creating skills for a bunch of
- 15:58things. I'm creating skills for
- 15:59different methods. I'm creating skills
- 16:01to help me size positions. I'm creating
- 16:03skills to help me execute positions,
- 16:05just like a real quant firm would do.
- 16:07Taking skills for varying parts of
- 16:09comprising a trade. That is really how
- 16:11you can get the most out of AI to be a
- 16:13real live trading assistant. So, it came
- 16:16up with a plain English version. Think
- 16:17about it like a weather forecast. The
- 16:19model says a typical day tomorrow
- 16:20Bitcoin moves around 2.1% which
- 16:22annualizes to 41%. Over the past year
- 16:25Bitcoin's rougher than this about 2/3 of
- 16:26the time. So, right now it's on the calm
- 16:28end. That's the calm regime. This is why
- 16:30it matters for sizing. Or let's say
- 16:31you're about to enter a position on the
- 16:33Nasdaq. You could say, "Help me size my
- 16:35Nasdaq position." And it can actually
- 16:37walk you through how to think of the
- 16:38trade like a quant. So, you can see now
- 16:40it's running the GARCH forecast on the
- 16:42Nasdaq. So, it said for the Nasdaq the
- 16:44model says to cut your position down and
- 16:47not grow it. And you can actually go
- 16:48back and forth and have a discussion
- 16:50with the model based on positions that
- 16:52you might want to size into. So, if you
- 16:54have a directional read like we
- 16:55discussed before, you can use this for
- 16:57the volatility or the risk component of
- 17:00sizing the trade. But let's go a step
- 17:01further. Let's actually test if this can
- 17:04make money. So, I'll test it with a very
- 17:06popular strategy, the same strategy,
- 17:07which is an EMA cross on Bitcoin, which
- 17:10is trained on 15 years of data, once at
- 17:12a fixed size and once the quant way,
- 17:15using the skill. So, I just asked it to
- 17:17download Bitcoin price history in case
- 17:18it didn't have access, Right run the
- 17:20sizing comparison on it, and then make
- 17:21sure the target risk matches the EMA
- 17:23strategy to make sure the comparison is
- 17:25apples to apples. All right, so you can
- 17:28see the growth of $1 from 2012 with the
- 17:32fixed size strategy on Bitcoin, which is
- 17:35the gray line, and then the volatility
- 17:37target GARCH size line, which you can
- 17:40see actually ends up marginally beating
- 17:42the fixed strategy on Bitcoin. At the
- 17:45same time, the volatility targeted
- 17:46strategy from GARCH actually took less
- 17:49drawdowns than Bitcoin in the meantime
- 17:50as well. So, whenever you run a model
- 17:52like this, you can actually get
- 17:54volatility targeted graphs generated
- 17:57like this, which I think are really
- 17:58cool, so you can map out potential
- 18:00trades, which I think is valuable, and
- 18:02it's what a quant firm would do to
- 18:03visually map out a trade before they
- 18:05enter. And obviously, Claude does this
- 18:07for you if you download the skill. I
- 18:08think the crazy part is actually the
- 18:10Sharpe ratio. This is essentially the
- 18:12risk-adjusted return of an investment,
- 18:14because investments aren't just about,
- 18:16you know, whether you made money, it's
- 18:18also about how much risk you took on to
- 18:20make that amount of money, and you can
- 18:22see that the volume targeted approach
- 18:24had a significantly better Sharpe ratio,
- 18:26meaning it had better risk-adjusted
- 18:28returns. So, even if you make the same
- 18:29amount of money, if you can do so taking
- 18:31on less risk, then that is the better
- 18:33approach, and that was reflected in the
- 18:34drawdown charts. It simply took on less
- 18:37drawdown. So, the max drawdown with the
- 18:38volatility targeted approach that used
- 18:40our strategy was 63%. The max drawdown
- 18:43with the fixed size strategy was 81%.
- 18:45The worst month with our approach was
- 18:4719%. The worst month normally was 40%.
- 18:50The final equity on our approach was
- 18:5221,000, and the final equity on the
- 18:54fixed size approach was 17.9 thousand.
- 18:56Now, I'm going to ask it, "Run the same
- 18:58comparison on my Nasdaq position over
- 19:01the last 50 years." Now, for Nasdaq,
- 19:03this is actually extremely interesting.
- 19:05It improved the Sharpe ratio. It
- 19:07improved every single risk number, so
- 19:09you took on a lot less risk, but it did
- 19:10cost a full point of compounded annual
- 19:12growth rate. So, over 50 years this
- 19:14would have made you 99 less dollars. So,
- 19:17Bitcoin won risk and absolute return.
- 19:19Equities didn't. Equities [music]
- 19:21won the risk component, which may have
- 19:22enabled you to size up more, which may
- 19:24have enabled you to, you know, end up
- 19:26out-returning, but that is a variable
- 19:28test we need to run on new numbers. But
- 19:29nonetheless,
- 19:30it did cost in this experiment less
- 19:33returns. Because the size of throttle
- 19:35mostly trend exposure during violent
- 19:37rallies off the lows. However, it did
- 19:39earn its keep in some capacity because
- 19:41the goal of a fund is not to blow up.
- 19:43So, in the dot-com bust, where fixed
- 19:45sizing hit its yearly worst at minus
- 19:4728.8%
- 19:49volume targeting kept it to roughly
- 19:51minus 13%. Same story in 2008, 28%
- 19:54versus 13% and 2022, 23% versus 13%. And
- 19:59its worst month was cut from 10.9% to
- 20:02only 7.7%. So, the takeaway with the
- 20:04Nasdaq is that volume targeting is
- 20:06buying insurance, not extra return. So,
- 20:09it helps the pain, but it costs you 1%
- 20:12compounded annual growth rate. And
- 20:14whether that trade is worth it, as Fable
- 20:15points out, depends on whether you'd
- 20:17actually sit through a minus 29% without
- 20:19capitulating. Most people wouldn't and
- 20:21capitulation costs more than the
- 20:22insurance premium. Very interesting
- 20:24thought process. Once again, this skill
- 20:26is not meant to be the only thing you
- 20:28use to trade. This is a tool for you to
- 20:30use to understand risk and to help
- 20:32understand what environment you're in
- 20:34and how to target. I do think a lot of
- 20:36people though, they struggle with this
- 20:38so much that if they had a tool like
- 20:40this, they would lose significantly less
- 20:42amounts of money cuz they'd be able to
- 20:44think in a different capacity when
- 20:45opening trades. Even if it is for
- 20:47riskier asset types, it can help a lot.
- 20:49And it even helps when charting. So, if
- 20:50you go into the GitHub and you go into
- 20:53Pine Script and go Storm Gauge Pine,
- 20:55what you can do is you can copy the
- 20:58entire file here. You can just either
- 21:00copy the raw file in the top right-hand
- 21:02corner or simply copy and paste. Then go
- 21:05into TradingView. Then click on the
- 21:07little pyramid logo here, then I've
- 21:09already got one in, but I'll clear it
- 21:10out and show you what it would look
- 21:11like. Paste it in, click enter, click
- 21:13refresh, and this is going to load the
- 21:16indicator on your screen, which is this
- 21:18indicator here, which goes through the
- 21:20metrics we discussed before. So, the
- 21:21market violence metric, the current
- 21:23percentage versus the limit, the
- 21:24category [music] it's in versus the last
- 21:26year, so we could see it's heavily in
- 21:27storm territory, 96% more volatile
- 21:31versus the past year. It has a sizing
- 21:33suggestion and an example on $10,000 and
- 21:36a suggested action based on the number
- 21:38above. And then you can also see the
- 21:40volatility bands in here as well to help
- 21:42you understand the movements of the
- 21:44market. So, this is a very helpful tool
- 21:46that you can use, and of course you can
- 21:47build upon it. The best thing about this
- 21:48being in cloud is that you can make
- 21:50tweaks and edit things over time and
- 21:52create your own parameters. So, if you
- 21:53want all of this, use the link in the
- 21:54description below. If you enjoyed this
- 21:56video, make sure to subscribe because
- 21:58I'm going to be doing a lot more AI
- 21:59trading content like this, and we can
- 22:01even build skills together for other
- 22:03areas of trading and potentially other
- 22:05quant strategies because there are
- 22:06multiple approaches here, but I wanted
- 22:08to touch on one of the most relevant
- 22:09ones today. And yeah, thank you for your
- 22:11time today. I'll see you in the next
- 22:13video. Have a lovely rest of your day.
- 22:14Peace out.
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