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I Make A Living Day Trading This ONE Orderflow Strategy (2026) — Transcript

by Christopher Creamer | Orderflow Trader · 4,526 words · 667 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00I spent almost two years losing money
0:02every single day and blew hundreds of
0:04accounts before I ever saw my first
0:06payout. [music] Now I trade the same way
0:08every single day and it's what allows me
0:10to pull payouts with prop firms, to even
0:12have five-figure months with prop firms.
0:14It's the same read, the same chart every
0:18single [music] morning. And no, it's not
0:20like a pattern or some magic indicator,
0:23and I'm not about to sit here and try
0:25and sell you on some BS 90% win rate.
0:28It's one thing that a lot of traders
0:30never look at because [music] they're
0:32staring at the wrong half of the chart.
0:34Here's what a lot of the retail trading
0:36space never really understands.
0:37>> [music]
0:38>> Participation is what moves markets, not
0:41patterns. The reason why you keep buying
0:43breakouts and it instantly reverses and
0:45stops you out isn't because you missed a
0:48setup or you messed up your entry model.
0:50It's that you can't actually see who's
0:53really behind the move. Once you can see
0:55who's actually participating at a level
0:58and whether they're really getting
0:59rewarded for it, the whole game changes.
1:02So just [music] stick with me and by the
1:04end of this, you'll see it, too. So
1:05what's up? It's Thrax. We're back for
1:07another video. So here's the plan. I'm
1:10breaking down the way that I trade from
1:11start to finish. The first thing is what
1:14order flow actually [music] is and why
1:17candlesticks only tell you half the
1:19story. The second thing that I'm going
1:21to go over are the two participants that
1:23actually move price. [music] And number
1:25three is going to be about absorption,
1:28the read that might tell you that move
1:30could potentially fail. And the fourth
1:32thing,
1:33>> [music]
1:33>> which is probably the most important, is
1:35the pre-market stack that I've built to
1:37actually find the location that matters.
1:40And last but not least, the one read
1:42that decides whether you win and it has
1:45nothing to do with your entry. A candle
1:48shows you the result. Order flow is
1:50going to show you the effort behind it.
1:52And when that effort and the result
1:54disagree, that's your trade. [music]
1:57That one idea, effort versus result, is
2:00the whole thing. Quick context if you're
2:02new here. When I first started trading,
2:04I blew hundreds of accounts. I lost
2:06around $50,000 of my own money to the
2:10prop firms through tilting and revenge
2:12trading before I was ever able to get a
2:14single payout. [music]
2:16And I only got consistent, I was only
2:18able to start pulling payouts
2:20consistently [music]
2:21and even having five-figure months in
2:23payouts when I stopped hunting for
2:26patterns and I started reading the live
2:28auction. And that's the whole shift I'm
2:30about to hand you. So, let's start with
2:32what order flow actually is. Now, as
2:35we've talked about in my other videos,
2:37well, we understand that normal
2:39candlesticks will give us the open, the
2:41high, the low, the close. It's the
2:43result of the auction. Well, when we
2:46open up an order flow candle or a
2:48footprint candle specifically, where
2:50we're looking at maybe a delta profile
2:52where volume is building and where
2:54participa- -tion is actually happening
2:57inside of every single candle, we can
2:59see the effort. And when we see that
3:01effort, well, we're looking for the
3:02result of that effort. Is it going to
3:05result in price progression or is it
3:07not? And that's the whole game. So, even
3:09when we're looking at these two charts,
3:11same time frame, same asset side by
3:14side, well, we can see different types
3:16of information. We can see where sellers
3:18were getting aggressive, where buyers
3:20started stepping in, where sellers were
3:22getting trapped at the extremes. And
3:24it's informa- -tion that these
3:25candlesticks are just not really
3:27providing. And this whole concept of
3:29effort versus result is the core
3:31foundation of order flow because in the
3:34market there are two participants. There
3:36are aggressive traders who are taking
3:38the initiative, they're getting into a
3:40trade, they're crossing the spread, and
3:42they're doing it by aggressive orders.
3:44And they're essentially paying up to get
3:46in now. Now, passive orders or what you
3:49may see on the depth of market or on
3:51level two or even a heat map, those
3:54passive orders are what's providing
3:56liquidity to the market, right? If we
3:57think about things in terms of a trade,
4:00right? If you're going to buy something,
4:02well, somebody has to sell it to you. If
4:03you're going to sell something, well,
4:05somebody has to buy it from you. And so,
4:07it's this constant interaction between
4:09aggressive participants who are taking
4:11liquidity and passive participants who
4:14are offering the liquidity. All right,
4:16real quick, let's take a quick break to
4:18talk about the sponsor of this video, IQ
4:20Capital. Everything I'm showing you in
4:22this video or in fact in any of my
4:24videos only matters if you actually have
4:26the capital to trade with. And losing
4:29thousands of dollars of your own money
4:31is one of the most expensive ways to
4:33learn in trading. Now, a prop firm fixes
4:35that part. You trade their capital, you
4:38build the skill, and when you take those
4:40lumps early on, you're mitigating the
4:42risk on your end. And IQ Capital is one
4:44of the firms that I use. Right now,
4:46they're running an 80% off on all of
4:48their products. And when you get your
4:49first account with IQ Capital, it's only
4:52$9 using code Thrax. So, if you want to
4:54test out an IQ Capital account, check
4:56the link in the description below. Now,
4:58let's get back into the video. So, when
5:00it comes to this whole retail myth that
5:02a lot of people like to think about in
5:04terms of hunting stop losses or a stop
5:06loss hunt or, you know, some institution
5:09or market maker is trying to target, you
5:12know, your three contract stop loss,
5:15well, it's just not true. Aggressors are
5:17looking for a counterparty to be able to
5:19fill their trades. And that's passive
5:21liquidity. So, let's talk about an order
5:23flow read, right? What are we looking
5:25at? And we're thinking about this in
5:26terms of effort versus result. Now, if
5:28we were to be looking at this candle
5:30here, and if we're wondering what's in
5:32this area and why it actually matters,
5:35well, if we were to be looking at a
5:36volume profile chart, right? And what do
5:39we notice about the migration of value?
5:42We're watching value get created, and
5:45then we're finding value lower. Now,
5:47over a couple days, where do we see us
5:49kind of running into some problems? You
5:51have value area high of the regular
5:53trading hours. You have value area high
5:55of the extended trading hours. Then the
5:57following day, we have value area high
5:59of the prior RTH. Now, during the
6:02overnight session before last night,
6:04what did we do? Well, we started
6:05breaking to the upside to then look for
6:08value higher. Now, this area becomes
6:10pretty important because in the event
6:12that we're going to continue searching
6:14for value higher, then we should be
6:16trying to hold above it. Hold above it
6:18so that we can accept higher. Sellers
6:20fail to reclaim back into prior value,
6:23and then we can start searching for
6:24higher prices. So, let's say we have
6:27location, right? And we're watching
6:29price come down into location, and we
6:31have that thought in our head in terms
6:34of here we are, we created value, now
6:37we're trying to break out of value.
6:39Sellers are coming in. Sellers are
6:41trying to reclaim, meaning they're
6:42trying to get back into prior value. Are
6:45they going to be successful, or are they
6:47not? Now, if we were to be looking at an
6:50order flow chart, let's just imagine for
6:52the sake of, you know, the argument
6:54here, for the sake of the point, that
6:56this is the area that we're looking at.
6:59Now, coming into this area, we see
7:01sellers stepping in aggressively. Keep
7:03in mind, these are delta profiles, and
7:06these big trades here are showing us
7:08where aggressive sell orders were being
7:10placed that are over our filter, over
7:13our minimum of what we want to look for.
7:15So, we begin dropping down into location
7:18that we've mapped out from volume
7:20profiles, understanding how the auction
7:22is moving around, where value's being
7:24built, where we're accepting value,
7:26rejecting value, searching for new
7:28value, and we see this pressure from the
7:30sellers. Now, this candle here is what
7:33is important. Why? Because
7:36this candle, which is a bearish candle,
7:39at the extremes of this candle, we see
7:41large amounts of selling delta as well
7:43as aggressive participants of sellers.
7:46They're putting in all of this effort,
7:48all of this aggression at the extremes,
7:51but what is the result of that
7:52aggression? Well, the result of that
7:54aggression is they're not being rewarded
7:56with price progression. They're not
7:58being rewarded with further price
7:59movement lower. Now, that difference
8:02between that aggression and between that
8:04result starts to become information that
8:06we can use, especially if it's in
8:09location that we care about. So, then
8:11what do we want to see? Well, in this
8:13case, we want to see sellers putting in
8:15the effort. If we're thinking we're
8:17holding above prior value, we're looking
8:19to potentially search for value higher,
8:22and we're watching sellers try and
8:23reclaim back into prior value, and here
8:26they are putting in this effort on the
8:28lower time frames, and they're just not
8:30being successful in doing so. Not only
8:33when we're pushing down, but in
8:34location, in the area we're watching
8:36for, they're being aggressive, and that
8:39aggression is failing.
8:41The candle closes above, and following
8:43that almost immediately, we start seeing
8:46buyers stepping in aggressively. How do
8:48we know buyers are stepping in
8:49aggressively? Well, when we're looking
8:51at this delta profile on these candles,
8:54following this and following this,
8:57meaning that sellers failed here,
8:59sellers stepped in aggressively again
9:01and failed even higher up, meaning that
9:03it was weaker, and we start seeing
9:05bullish activity coming in. You start
9:07seeing delta profiles that have these
9:10blue bars in it, right? Blue for
9:12aggressive buyers. So, buyers are being
9:14aggressive. Now, buyers are starting to
9:17step in aggressively, and we think the
9:19same thing to ourselves. Here they are.
9:22Buyers are now here coming out of
9:23location after sellers just failed.
9:26We're looking to see if that buying
9:28aggression is going to result in price
9:30progression. And in this case, buyers
9:33are putting in the effort, and they're
9:35getting the result. So, what did we just
9:37witness? Well, we just watched us
9:39essentially come down aggressively into
9:41location. Sellers fail to get back below
9:44where that ceiling was that we built for
9:46value area. Sellers are getting
9:49absorbed. Dominance begins to shift to
9:51the upside. Buyers start stepping in.
9:53And that's the confirmation for what
9:55we're looking for when we're trying to
9:57take a trade. So, every day it's the
9:59same thing over and over again. The
10:02first thing that we're looking at is
10:03where is value and how is it moving? You
10:05don't even really need candlesticks at
10:07the end of the day when you're looking
10:09at a chart like this because the purpose
10:11of a chart like this is to just
10:13understand the migration of value. Are
10:15we in a value up structure? Are we in a
10:18value down structure? Is value moving
10:20sideways? Now, if we were to go look and
10:23see what was happening, let's go to this
10:25chart. Now, this is a different style
10:26chart, but it has no candlesticks. It
10:28may look crazy, right? But, look at look
10:31at these volume profiles for a moment.
10:33Let's think about what's actually
10:35happening here. Now, just for context,
10:37these smaller ones are the volume
10:41profiles for the RTH and the ETH for
10:44regular trading hours and extended
10:45trading hours. These white profiles are
10:48the weekly volume profiles. And then
10:50this large one on the right side is a
10:52composite profile that looks over the
10:54past 30 days.
10:55Now, what do we notice first about the
10:57composite profile? Well, the composite
10:59profile has a very large high volume
11:02node in this area where it's essentially
11:04showing us that all of the transactions,
11:07all the business is being done in this
11:09area. Even if we were to zoom out, we
11:12see where all of the transactions are
11:14being done. Now, when we go and we look
11:16at the white profiles, the weekly
11:18profiles, look what's happening with the
11:21value areas. This is a value area. This
11:24is the next value area.
11:26This is the next value area.
11:29And this is the next value area. What do
11:32we notice about this? They are
11:34overlapping. Is value going up? Is it
11:36going down? Or is it going sideways?
11:38Well, it's going sideways. So, we
11:40understand that on the broader picture,
11:43over the course of what's happening,
11:45well, value is migrating sideways over
11:48the past few weeks or the past month.
11:50Now, we finally start making a move to
11:51the upside. So, here we are making our
11:53move to the upside. So, then when we go
11:55look at this chart, right? What are we
11:57looking at? We're looking at the auction
11:59finding value higher and higher, and now
12:02we're currently consolidating sideways.
12:04Here we are in those previous days that
12:06I mentioned where we tried to move up,
12:08yet we failed, and we created a ceiling
12:10here over multiple sessions that are
12:13clustering around the same area. Now,
12:15this becomes a pretty important area
12:17that we want to pay attention to. If we
12:19were to even mark this out, right?
12:21Because over the past three sessions
12:23before last night's overnight session,
12:25well, we were having trouble breaking
12:27above it. We were having trouble finding
12:29value higher.
12:30So, then here we go during the
12:32overnight, like we mentioned earlier,
12:33and we start breaking through this area.
12:36And when we're breaking through this
12:37area, well, what is the auction trying
12:39to do? Well, the auction is trying to
12:41find value higher at this point. Is it
12:44going to be successful in doing so or
12:46not? We don't know. So, we pay attention
12:48to this level, and if we are going to be
12:50successful in searching for value
12:52higher, making another high, then we
12:54would realistically want to hold above
12:56prior value. In the event that we
12:58actually accept below prior value, and
13:01we build value down here, we build
13:03participation down here, then we may
13:05consolidate or we may even move lower.
13:07So, this becomes an important area that
13:09we map out in the morning, right? And
13:11so, we map it out, and that becomes an
13:13area where we then look to potentially
13:15take trades. Now, I know this is a
13:17little bit higher up than what I'm
13:18pointing at, but the concept remains the
13:21same. That's how the location is
13:22determined using volume profiles, and
13:25this is how we're looking for
13:26confirmation in terms of the lower time
13:29frames with order flow. Now, when it
13:31comes to volume profiles, that's just
13:33one layer of location. Because what are
13:36we also looking at? It's not just about
13:38volume profiles, but I'm also looking at
13:41premium and discount. Now, I've made a
13:43bunch of different videos on premium and
13:44discount. So, let's just go over it very
13:46quickly. Now, let's say here we are on a
13:49normal chart.
13:50Let's zoom out a little bit. Let's go to
13:52a 15-minute time frame. Where did we
13:54move from balance to imbalance? Well, it
13:57started from here, right? So, if we were
13:59to go and draw a fixed range volume
14:01profile. This is the open of the day,
14:04right? This is the overnight session. If
14:06we were to draw a fixed range volume
14:07profile from where we actually started
14:09this move up, all the way until where we
14:12were coming down, well, now we have
14:14value area. When we draw out a fib from
14:17the swing low to the swing high, we're
14:20looking in this area that's sitting
14:22below value area as discount. And this
14:26is an area where we're looking to
14:27participate. This is where we want to
14:29actually do business. Now, the way that
14:31I trade, right, is that if we do start
14:34having candle closures past the 886,
14:36well, it begins to invalidate my idea in
14:39terms of keeping this bullish structure
14:41intact. Now, we wick past it, but in the
14:44end, we do stay above it. And this
14:46becomes discount of a broader move where
14:48we're starting to move up, and we're
14:50looking to potentially participate or
14:52look for longs in this area. Now, when
14:55you combine premium and discount with
14:57volume profile levels and watching how
14:59the value is actually migrating session
15:01to session, day over day, week over
15:04week, well, now we can start stacking
15:06levels on top of each other. And not
15:08only are we looking at volume profiles
15:12and premium and discount, but I'm also
15:15looking at GEX levels. Now, I want to
15:17understand what the dealer positioning
15:20or what the gamma profile looks like for
15:22the day. Now, in this area here, on this
15:24profile, what do we see? Well, we're
15:26currently in a positive gamma
15:28environment, but something to know about
15:30a positive gamma environment is we do
15:32want to at least pay attention to the
15:34distribution of positive gamma. Now,
15:36here we are. We're kind of consolidating
15:38here or balancing out on the lower time
15:41frames, and look where it's happening.
15:43Well, we have the call wall, and we have
15:45C2. Now, these are the two largest
15:47positive nodes when it comes to this
15:50gamma profile using Tanuki Trade. So, if
15:52we were to be moving up into this and
15:54understanding how dealers and market
15:56makers are potentially behaving in a
15:58positive gamma environment around
16:00positive nodes, well, this doesn't
16:02become a surprise. And this becomes an
16:04area of friction overhead that we need
16:07to pay attention to that can potentially
16:09cause problems for our long position,
16:12right? Because if we know in a positive
16:15gamma environment, typically what we see
16:17are dealers and market makers selling
16:20into rips and buying into dips, having a
16:22volatility dampening effect on what
16:26we're seeing in the underlying. Well,
16:28here we are, pushing up into a positive
16:30gamma environment, and this is causing
16:33us to have some friction here. We're
16:34We're seeing us run into the call wall.
16:36We're seeing us run into these positive
16:38nodes, and now we're kind of
16:40consolidating, bouncing back and forth.
16:42Well, this is to be kind of the baseline
16:44expectation from what we know about
16:46gamma. I have a video on gamma if you
16:49want to go deeper into the mechanics of
16:51it and how it actually works. It's on my
16:53channel, so go take some time and check
16:55it out. And in the future, I will make
16:57more videos on it as well. Now, when it
16:59comes to all of this stuff, right? When
17:01we open up the charts, we're paying
17:02attention to the volume profiles, how
17:05value's been migrating, we're paying
17:07attention to what the gamma profile's
17:09looking like for the day, what the map
17:11is looking like, we're searching for
17:13premium, we're searching for discount,
17:15we're seeing how these levels stack
17:17together and create confluence. And then
17:19once we actually drop down to the lower
17:21time frames, we're looking for things
17:23such as absorption or trap sellers, trap
17:25buyers, aggression, effort versus result
17:29to then make decisions on where we want
17:32to participate and how we actually want
17:34to enter into trades. The most important
17:36part about all of this is reacting to
17:39what we're seeing, not necessarily
17:42predicting. Now, let me give you an
17:43example. Let's say that you are getting
17:46into order flow and you understand the
17:48concept of absorption. Well,
17:51a very common mistake that people make
17:53when they're looking for, let's say a
17:55reversal with order flow, is they just
17:57look for absorption. The moment they see
17:59any type of absorption, then they're
18:01going to try and take a reversal. Well,
18:04when it comes to an absorption reversal,
18:05it does require two things for it to
18:08properly play out. It requires number
18:10one, the actual absorption of the
18:12aggressive party, and two, the shift of
18:15dominance in the other direction. Now, a
18:17lot of beginners will just only use
18:19number one, just absorption of the
18:21aggressive party, and then look for a
18:23reversal. But yes, we see absorption, we
18:27see that aggression not resulting in any
18:29type of price progression, but it's
18:31still not necessarily confirmed that a
18:33reversal may be coming. And the reason
18:35why is because absorption happens all
18:37over the chart. We can see absorption,
18:40which is a pause, before continuation.
18:42So, to make sure that we're not about to
18:44step in front of a pause before
18:46continuation, well, we do want to see
18:47that shift in dominance, and we want the
18:49market to tell us that yes, dominance is
18:52shifting in the other direction, and we
18:54can see it happening from the other
18:56party stepping in aggressively and
18:59actually getting result for their
19:00effort. So, the whole goal in what we're
19:03looking at when it comes to confirmation
19:05with order flow is we're reacting, we're
19:06not necessarily predicting. If you wait
19:09for both one and two, then you're
19:10reacting. If you're waiting for only
19:12one, then you're trying to predict and
19:14you're trying to essentially just guess
19:17that the other party's going to start
19:19stepping in aggressively and getting
19:21that follow-through. Well, we can just
19:23wait and see it happen. You don't have
19:25to get in early or get in premature. We
19:27want to be right and we want we want our
19:30chances of being right to be
19:32as good as it can get, right? So, that
19:34confirmation is incredibly important.
19:36And the other thing that's super
19:38important to note about this is that
19:40when you're learning order flow and
19:42you're first getting into order flow and
19:44you start seeing aggression and result
19:46and absorption and exhaustion and
19:48stacked imbalances and big trades and
19:50all of this new information. Well,
19:52what's going to happen for a lot of
19:54people is they're going to see more
19:55setups, especially if you're on the
19:57lower time frames. But, the power to
19:59order flow, the power to reading this
20:02type of information is not necessarily
20:04in finding more trades, finding more
20:06setups. It's about filtering out the bad
20:09ones because as a trader, consistency
20:11and profitability doesn't necessarily
20:14come from more A+ setups. It doesn't
20:16come from more trades.
20:17It comes from tightening the back end.
20:19It comes from having less trades that
20:22are losers that were totally
20:23unnecessary. And that's the whole thing
20:25about having a good loss versus a bad
20:27loss. There are times where, let's say
20:30we take a trade like this and it's in
20:32location, it aligns with context, we see
20:34confirmation, and then later on it comes
20:37down and it totally just runs through
20:39this whole area and we were wrong. Well,
20:42if we get stopped out on a trade like
20:44that and we did what we were supposed to
20:46do, then it's fine. But, if we take a
20:48trade that didn't have location, that
20:51didn't have the right confirmation, and
20:53it doesn't work out, well, then you
20:56weren't following the system. You
20:57weren't following the framework that you
20:59set for yourself. And then, of course,
21:01at that point, if you take a loss on
21:02that trade, well, it's a bad loss. It
21:04was unnecessary. And using order flow,
21:07what I found in the beginning, well, I
21:10saw more trades. There's more data and
21:12with more data, there's more things to
21:13be wrong about. But over time, the power
21:16of what I found in order flow is
21:18filtering out the trades that I didn't
21:20need to take in the first place. We have
21:23location. When you have location, you're
21:25using order flow to determine, is it
21:27confirming that this location is a great
21:29area to take a trade or is it telling us
21:32that maybe we should pass on this? Let's
21:34say, for example, we see this happening.
21:37We have location, we're coming down
21:39aggressively into location, and instead
21:42of seeing a scenario where sellers are
21:44putting in aggression, not getting
21:46result, and we're seeing a shift in
21:47dominance. Let's say on the other end of
21:49things,
21:50they're being very aggressive in
21:53location, sellers, and they're getting
21:55rewarded with price movement lower.
21:57Well, we're in location that aligns with
21:59context, but the confirmation isn't
22:01there, so pass. In doing so, we can
22:04remove some of the unnecessary losses
22:07that we never needed to take in the
22:08first place. And that's where
22:10consistency is actually going to come
22:12from. It's from tightening the back end,
22:13like I mentioned. So, it's effort versus
22:16result. It's framing the context
22:19properly, understanding how value is
22:22migrating, understanding the environment
22:24or the gamma profile that we're in, and
22:27then looking for a location, whether
22:29it's volume profile levels, gamma
22:32levels, or premium and discount, and
22:35then waiting until we get into these
22:36areas to then try and confirm whether
22:38this is a valid level or not by watching
22:42what's actually happening between the
22:44aggressive participants, the passive
22:46participants, and seeing what's actually
22:48happening on the order flow candles.
22:51Just remember, participation is what
22:53moves markets, not necessarily patterns.
22:56So, that's the same thing that I do
22:58every single day. Understand value
23:00migration and higher time frame bias,
23:03looking at gamma, look looking at
23:05premium and discount, understanding what
23:07the overnight session did, and plotting
23:09location, and then waiting for order
23:12flow to confirm that location. It's
23:14effort versus result at a location that
23:16actually matters. But, the data and all
23:19of this stuff is only half of it. The
23:21whole framework or the whole strategy is
23:24useless if you can't survive long enough
23:27to let it play out. An edge means
23:29nothing if you can't survive variance.
23:32So, when you tighten the back end, you
23:34control that C-game behavior and manage
23:37tilt properly using real risk
23:39management, hard loss limits, knowing
23:41when to walk away when your
23:43decision-making quality begins to
23:44degrade or drop. All of that is
23:47incredibly important. You can have the
23:48cleanest read, the greatest analysis in
23:51the world, and you can still ruin it all
23:54of it if you can't manage yourself. Now,
23:56this is some of the stuff that I'm about
23:58to talk about in the free live
24:00masterclass that I'm doing on September
24:0228th. We're almost at capacity for the
24:05webinar room that we're doing it in. So,
24:08if you want to reserve your spot, click
24:10the link down below in the description
24:12or the pinned comment. Join, it's
24:13completely free. We're also giving away
24:153 months of Deep Charts to a few lucky
24:18winners, and I'll catch you guys there.
24:20I'll see you in the next video. Peace.

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