I Made $100,000 in 18 Months (What I’m Buying & Selling Now) — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:00Guys, finally, a really good month for
2. 0:02my portfolio. This week, I officially
3. 0:05crossed a hundred thousand dollar in
4. 0:08profit for the very first time. I also
5. 0:10made a big change selling out completely
6. 0:13of one of my largest position. Because
7. 0:16of that, I now have fresh capital to buy
8. 0:19a new company. So, today, I'm going to
9. 0:21share my top ideas, and at the end of
10. 0:24the video, we are going to play a stock
11. 0:26ranking game to choose my next buy
12. 0:29together. I know most of you guys follow
13. 0:32me for my research videos analyzing and
14. 0:35rankings other YouTubers, but once a
15. 0:37month, I like to share my personal
16. 0:40journey with you in a very simple and
17. 0:43honest way. So, let's look at my
18. 0:45year-to-date returns. As you can see, my
19. 0:47year start incredibly [music] bad. I was
20. 0:50down forty thousand dollar while the S&P
21. 0:54was basically flat. Back then, I decided
22. 0:57the best fix was to do absolutely
23. 0:59nothing, take a break, go on holiday,
24. 1:02and just wait.
25. 1:04But, if we have to be honest,
26. 1:07I made some major mistakes at the
27. 1:09beginning of this year, and probably, I
28. 1:12was also a bit unlucky. I bought PayPal
29. 1:15right here, and a week later, the CEO
30. 1:18got fired.
31. 1:20I bought Adobe right here, and Shantanu
32. 1:23Narayen decided to step down. I bought
33. 1:26Insead here, and literally, the next
34. 1:30day, Novo Nordisk sued them. Stock
35. 1:33picking is tough. It's really not for
36. 1:36everybody.
37. 1:37How many of us panic sell on this kind
38. 1:40of bad news? Years ago, when I started
39. 1:43investing, I probably would have sold
40. 1:46everything. And after all these years,
41. 1:48if any years, I'm still making these
42. 1:51mistakes.
43. 1:53My point is that if you buy a company
44. 1:55because your favorite YouTuber put it on
45. 1:58a list, you are going to panic sell when
46. 2:01things go very red. The only way to
47. 2:04resist these kind of drops is to have
48. 2:07your own conviction and to keep learning
49. 2:10from your own mistakes. For example,
50. 2:13this year I made a big mistake because I
51. 2:16did not have the stability to hold Oscar
52. 2:19Health.
53. 2:21Listen.
54. 2:22Oscar Health, another insurer, another
55. 2:25extremely low valuation stock. Very
56. 2:28risky, very volatile. So, I clearly had
57. 2:31the technical skill to understand that
58. 2:34Oscar was wrongly priced.
59. 2:36But here is the problem.
60. 2:38I know a lot about valuation. I even
61. 2:41invented my own method to value
62. 2:43companies, but I know absolutely nothing
63. 2:47about the US healthcare system. It's
64. 2:50completely outside my circle of
65. 2:52competence and I had no idea how the
66. 2:55government policy could impact Oscar.
67. 2:58So, when the stock price kept dropping,
68. 3:01I started doubting my own assumptions. I
69. 3:04was not able to hold a company I did not
70. 3:07fully understand. I end up selling at
71. 3:10$13.73,
72. 3:13taking a tiny 4% profit. Today is
73. 3:16trading around $29.
74. 3:19So, I completely missed out on a $20,000
75. 3:24win. Luckily, I had the willpower to
76. 3:26hold on to my other crashing stocks like
77. 3:30Hims, Novo Nordisk, Duolingo. But when
78. 3:33our stock crash, there is always a
79. 3:36little doubt inside us. We constantly
80. 3:40ask ourselves,
81. 3:42"Am I wrong about this?" Listen to
82. 3:45Howard Marks.
83. 3:47>> We were the kind of people
84. 3:50who always say,
85. 3:52"I could be wrong or it could work in a
86. 3:56in a way that's never been seen before.
87. 3:58When the markets are crashing,
88. 4:00why are they crashing?
89. 4:02They're crashing because the news is
90. 4:04terrible.
91. 4:05I read the same newspapers.
92. 4:07I watch the same shows on TV. Um
93. 4:10I'm attached to the same news feeds. I
94. 4:12see the terrible news.
95. 4:15It looks terrible to me.
96. 4:17I overcome it in some way and conclude,
97. 4:20"No, I should invest." But
98. 4:24I'm not immune to what everybody else is
99. 4:27reading. People who look at
100. 4:29the world probabilistically
101. 4:32and admit to
102. 4:33uh
103. 4:34ignorance and uncertainty
104. 4:37can't act
105. 4:38without trepidation. If you wait until
106. 4:42you have nothing to be afraid about,
107. 4:45probably the opportunity has passed.
108. 4:47>> Please, my friend, do not trust these
109. 4:50YouTubers who act like they would know
110. 4:53the future. Or these traders that claim
111. 4:56they have a method that never lose.
112. 4:59I don't want to name names, but great
113. 5:01investing it's about understanding all
114. 5:04the things that we don't know and that
115. 5:05we cannot control. Ultimately, it's a
116. 5:08game of probabilities. We cannot know
117. 5:10the future, so we will always have some
118. 5:13fears. But because I was convinced my
119. 5:17holdings were deeply undervalued and
120. 5:20wrongly priced, I held on. And today,
121. 5:23I'm back at all-time highs, up 11%
122. 5:27year-to-date. I'm finally matching the
123. 5:30S&P 500. If we look at the returns since
124. 5:33I started this channel, I began with
125. 5:36$140,000.
126. 5:39I never deposited another cent.
127. 5:4218 months later, I'm at $100,000 in
128. 5:45profit with a total portfolio value
129. 5:48around 240,000.
130. 5:51I do not like to brag or pump myself.
131. 5:54Unlike other YouTubers, I don't have a
132. 5:56course or a Discord to sell you. So, I
133. 6:00usually prefer to talk about my
134. 6:01mistakes.
135. 6:03But, let me celebrate this milestone for
136. 6:06just a moment. I closed my 13th trade
137. 6:09since I started this channel. I never
138. 6:13lost money on a single one. 13
139. 6:16contrarian trades,
140. 6:1813 green winners. So, what did I sell?
141. 6:22One day before, I did like Jeremy.
142. 6:26>> Listen.
143. 6:28I sold my PayPal.
144. 6:31And around these parts, it will always
145. 6:33be referred to as Pain Pal. Yeah, good
146. 6:36old Pain Pal. We sold it all, right?
147. 6:39Sold it all.
148. 6:39>> I closed the position I was most
149. 6:41doubtful about. PayPal. I bought it at
150. 6:44$57
151. 6:46in January, and I sold it at $57
152. 6:50and change in July. Dead money. 0.6%
153. 6:54returns including dividends in 6 months.
154. 6:58If I bought it because it was cheap
155. 7:00compared to the free cash flow, why did
156. 7:03I sold for the exact same price?
157. 7:06I have two reasons. First, the upside
158. 7:10potential is not anymore about PayPal
159. 7:13fundamentals. It is now completely
160. 7:16driven by Stripe buyout offer. The free
161. 7:20cash flow, the new initiative, the
162. 7:21management skills do not matter anymore.
163. 7:24Now, it's all about Stripe $60 per share
164. 7:27offer. If someone is going to raise that
165. 7:30offer, the price will go up. If no one
166. 7:32does, the price is kept, and I'm not
167. 7:35going to stick around
168. 7:37to gamble on a bidding war where I have
169. 7:40absolutely zero edge. Second, the rest
170. 7:43of the market changed a lot. When I
171. 7:46bought PayPal in January, opportunities
172. 7:49were very scarce. Now, there are a lot
173. 7:53of compelling stocks trading at very low
174. 7:56valuations. I will name six in a minute.
175. 7:59So, even if I sold, I'm still convinced
176. 8:02PayPal is worth more than the current
177. 8:06$60
178. 8:08offer. In my opinion, Stripe offer is
179. 8:10low.
180. 8:11I believe PayPal is worth at least $75
181. 8:15to $80 a share, but I'm not sure that
182. 8:18management will be able to get that fair
183. 8:21value for the shareholders. This leaves
184. 8:24my current portfolio looking like this:
185. 8:2827%
186. 8:29in Duolingo, a massive 20% cash balance,
187. 8:3414% in Hims, 10% in Adobe, nine in Novo,
188. 8:40eight in Sanara, seven in Microsoft, and
189. 8:45six in Booking. Earnings coming soon. My
190. 8:49hope is that Duolingo will double beat
191. 8:52revenue and earnings.
192. 8:55Lately, they added Duo Cup avatar
193. 8:59customization. From my estimate, this
194. 9:01should be around 7 million in extra
195. 9:04revenue, not included in the current
196. 9:07guidance, which should be enough for for
197. 9:10a solid beat. For Adobe, the hope is
198. 9:13that we get the new CEO announcement,
199. 9:16and that is someone great. But even if
200. 9:19it's someone half decent,
201. 9:20[clears throat]
202. 9:21the stock will bounce, in my opinion,
203. 9:24because there is nothing worse for
204. 9:26investor than the current uncertainty.
205. 9:29For Novo Nordisk, looking at Google's
206. 9:32trend, Novo Nordisk is catching up with
207. 9:36Lily's Mounjaro. I think they crashed
208. 9:40the second quarter and finally we might
209. 9:42have an earning bounce. Anyway, now I
210. 9:45have to decide how to allocate this 20%
211. 9:49cash balance. Here are six new companies
212. 9:52I'm looking to buy and if you check the
213. 9:55first pin comment, there is a ranking
214. 9:58and I would like you to vote down to
215. 10:00help me decide which one to buy. First
216. 10:03option is SoFi. I love this kind of
217. 10:06growth in revenue and members.
218. 10:09I love that Anthony Noto is actively
219. 10:12buying shares.
220. 10:14SoFi price is fair, almost cheap. Second
221. 10:18is Mercado Libre. Revenue is going up
222. 10:21while the share price is going down. I
223. 10:24like that it's very cheap. I dislike
224. 10:26that it's a complex business and if I
225. 10:29don't want to repeat the Oscar health
226. 10:31mistake, I will have to study way more
227. 10:34before investing. Third is ServiceNow.
228. 10:38I'm convinced the software has a lot of
229. 10:41upside. The AI narrative, it's
230. 10:44exaggerated so every software looks very
231. 10:48cheap. I already have Adobe but I'm
232. 10:51thinking about increasing my software
233. 10:53exposure. Here, ServiceNow is not the
234. 10:56cheapest at 22 forward PE but it has the
235. 11:00strongest moat. Fourth is Oracle. This
236. 11:04is the only AI infrastructure company
237. 11:07that is actually going down instead of
238. 11:11going up. If, and it's a big if, OpenAI
239. 11:14maintains their 300 billion commitment,
240. 11:19Oracle is very very cheap. But if they
241. 11:22don't, their 122 billion in debt, it's
242. 11:26going to become a very big issue. Fifth
243. 11:30is Celsius.
244. 11:32This is actually the first stock I ever
245. 11:35traded in this channel and this is my
246. 11:37first video that passed 1,000 views. So,
247. 11:41I'm connected to this company. What I
248. 11:43like is that it's a very easy business
249. 11:46to understand
250. 11:47and I believe they can successfully
251. 11:49expand across Europe. Valuation-wise is
252. 11:53a cheapish, but of course, I would like
253. 11:55it even lower. I always like it lower,
254. 11:58especially when I don't own them. Sixth
255. 12:01is the Netflix. The more it goes down,
256. 12:05the more I am tempted. The earnings were
257. 12:08not amazing, but weren't that bad,
258. 12:10either. And valuation-wise is starting
259. 12:13to look attractive. It is not a complete
260. 12:17bargain like it was in 2022, but it is a
261. 12:20great company, easy to understand at a
262. 12:23very reasonable valuation. So, this is
263. 12:26my short list. Let's see who is going to
264. 12:28win. One comment equal one point.
265. 12:32One like to someone else's comment equal
266. 12:350.1 point. I will update the pinned
267. 12:38comment as much as possible as the votes
268. 12:41come in with the current ranking.
269. 12:43Please, help me out telling me your
270. 12:46favorite [music] choice. Thank you for
271. 12:48watching until the end. I'm taking a
272. 12:50couple of weeks off, but I will be back
273. 12:52in August with some really cool
274. 12:54research. So, like, subscribe.
275. 12:58Peace out.