I Have No Idea How To Trade — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:00I have absolutely no idea how to trade
2. 0:02this market. And you know what? I'm
3. 0:04completely fine with that. Now, that
4. 0:06might sound pretty strange to hear from
5. 0:08somebody who's been trading for years
6. 0:10and has an entire YouTube channel
7. 0:12dedicated to teaching people how to
8. 0:13trade. But let me explain something. I
9. 0:16know exactly what I'm looking for when I
10. 0:18open up my charts every morning. I have
11. 0:19my strategy, I have my rules, I know
12. 0:21what conditions I want to see, where I
13. 0:24want to enter, where my stop loss is
14. 0:26going to go, and where my take profit is
15. 0:27going to go. But when the market starts
16. 0:29doing something that doesn't fit those
17. 0:31rules, I have no idea what to do with
18. 0:34it. And rather than sitting there trying
19. 0:36to figure out how to squeeze a trade out
20. 0:39of something I don't understand, I just
21. 0:42close my charts and go do something
22. 0:43else. And that's exactly what happened
23. 0:45today. In fact, I actually told my
24. 0:48Telegram group this morning that I
25. 0:49wasn't interested in trading this setup.
26. 0:52Then a few hours later, the market did
27. 0:54this. Now, some people are going to look
28. 0:56at this and think I missed a massive
29. 0:59opportunity. I could have traded XYZ
30. 1:01type of strategy. But I want to show you
31. 1:03why I didn't take this trade, why I'm
32. 1:06not upset about it, and why I think one
33. 1:08of the biggest problems retail traders
34. 1:10have is that they feel obligated to
35. 1:12trade every single day. Because
36. 1:14sometimes the most professional thing
37. 1:16you can do as a trader is admit that you
38. 1:18have absolutely no idea what's going on.
39. 1:20So, let me show you what I was looking
40. 1:22at this morning. For those of you who
41. 1:24have been following my channel, you know
42. 1:26what strategies I've been using and how
43. 1:28I base my bias on the breakout of the
44. 1:31Tokyo range. Essentially, I'm looking at
45. 1:33the price action that develops during
46. 1:34the Asian session, and then I'm looking
47. 1:36for a breakout as we come into London.
48. 1:39It's a pretty simple idea, and I want to
49. 1:42see price establish a range, break out
50. 1:44of that range, and ideally start
51. 1:46developing some momentum in one
52. 1:48direction. That's my bias for the day,
53. 1:51and I believe that trend will continue
54. 1:52for a majority of the day. That one
55. 1:55thing gives me my directional bias. And
56. 1:57once I've established that bias, I can
57. 1:59start looking for additional entries
58. 2:01using Fibonacci retracements. So, if we
59. 2:03get a bullish breakout and price starts
60. 2:05making higher highs and higher lows, I'm
61. 2:08interested in buying retracements. And
62. 2:10if we get a bearish breakout, I'm
63. 2:12looking for opportunities to sell
64. 2:14pullbacks. That's the general idea. I'm
65. 2:18not trying to predict every little
66. 2:19movement in the market. I'm looking for
67. 2:21a specific sequence of events. But this
68. 2:24morning, things were a little bit
69. 2:26different and I did not like it. We had
70. 2:28our Tokyo range, and as that Tokyo range
71. 2:31was over, we started getting closer to
72. 2:33London open, and I was watching to see
73. 2:36whether we were going to get a
74. 2:37convincing breakout. And nothing
75. 2:39particularly interesting happened. It
76. 2:41kind of just traded sideways, not making
77. 2:43higher highs and higher lows, and not
78. 2:45making lower lows and lower highs. There
79. 2:47wasn't the kind of momentum or
80. 2:49volatility that I wanted to see, that
81. 2:52I'm more used to every single day. And
82. 2:55the longer that that went on without any
83. 2:56type of momentum move, the less
84. 2:58interested I became in trading that day.
85. 3:01Because generally speaking, when I'm
86. 3:02trading this setup, I want to see the
87. 3:04market start moving around the
88. 3:05transition from Tokyo into London. This
89. 3:07is also known as the Frankfurt session,
90. 3:09like Germany starts getting into the
91. 3:10action. I don't want to sit there for 5
92. 3:13hours and waiting for something to
93. 3:14happen. So, at 9:54 this morning, I
94. 3:17posted a message on my Telegram group. I
95. 3:19basically told everybody that there
96. 3:20wasn't much activity, that I would have
97. 3:22expected to see some decent movement
98. 3:24already. And I thought that we could go
99. 3:25ahead and skip trading for the day. Now,
100. 3:28here's the interesting part. After that
101. 3:29message, the market eventually started
102. 3:31moving. First, we got a pretty
103. 3:33aggressive swing to the downside. Then
104. 3:35price completely reversed and exploded
105. 3:38to the upside. And now, as I'm recording
106. 3:40this, we're seeing another pullback back
107. 3:43into the Tokyo range. So, in hindsight,
108. 3:45there was plenty of movement to take
109. 3:47advantage of. But price movement and
110. 3:49opportunity are not the same thing.
111. 3:51That's something I really want you to
112. 3:52understand. Just because the market
113. 3:55moves 30, 40, or 50 pips doesn't mean
114. 3:58those pips were there for you and your
115. 4:00specific strategy. Not every movement is
116. 4:02a trade and not every trade opportunity
117. 4:05is your trade opportunity. Let's look at
118. 4:07what happened here. We had price moving
119. 4:08sideways and then suddenly we got this
120. 4:10aggressive sell-off. Now, somebody could
121. 4:12have looked at this and said price was
122. 4:14grabbing liquidity below the previous
123. 4:16lows or below the Tokyo range. And maybe
124. 4:19that's exactly what happened. Then we
125. 4:21had this massive reversal and price
126. 4:23pushed above the earlier highs from the
127. 4:25high of the Tokyo range. And again,
128. 4:27somebody might call that a liquidity
129. 4:29grab. But here's my problem. How exactly
130. 4:32was I supposed to know that this was
131. 4:33going to happen? Like seriously, show me
132. 4:35the entry if this is your type of setup.
133. 4:36Show me where your stop loss would have
134. 4:38gone. Show me what information caused
135. 4:40you to believe that this move is going
136. 4:42to happen in this specific direction.
137. 4:43Cuz it looks incredibly easy if you were
138. 4:45like, "That's exactly the liquidity
139. 4:47point. So, I'm going to get in right
140. 4:49here." What if it was going to go for a
141. 4:51lower liquidity at the bottom of Tokyo?
142. 4:53I mean, you can find liquidity sweeps,
143. 4:55order blocks, fair value gaps, support
144. 4:57and resistance levels, Fibonacci
145. 4:58retracements, whatever you want. And
146. 5:01suddenly the entire chart looks perfect
147. 5:03and it makes sense. There's a massive
148. 5:04difference between explaining what
149. 5:06happened and having a strategy that
150. 5:08allows you to predict the movement
151. 5:10consistently. And here's where I think a
152. 5:12lot of traders get themselves into
153. 5:13trouble. They see a massive candle and
154. 5:15immediately they start thinking how much
155. 5:17money they could have made. Like if I
156. 5:18had bought at the liquidity sweep on the
157. 5:21bottom part of Tokyo range and rode the
158. 5:23trade up to the top of Tokyo range, I
159. 5:25could have made $5,000.
160. 5:28I get it. But like how did you know? Was
161. 5:30that your specific entry signal? Do you
162. 5:32have a strategy that's proven to work?
163. 5:33Because this what I saw on the charts
164. 5:36today, super rare. Does not happen all
165. 5:38the time. So, I don't even focus on it.
166. 5:41This is like a unicorn that happens. My
167. 5:44setup happens almost every single day.
168. 5:47This [ __ ] I don't even This isn't even
169. 5:49in my brain. Like genuinely, it's not
170. 5:51what I specialize in. This was not the
171. 5:53setup that I was looking for this
172. 5:55morning. I think there's a real strange
173. 5:57expectation in trading that once you've
174. 6:00become experienced enough, you're
175. 6:02supposed to be able to sit down in front
176. 6:03of any chart under any market conditions
177. 6:07and somehow make money. The market is
178. 6:09trending, you should make money. The
179. 6:10market is ranging, you should trade the
180. 6:12range. There's a massive news event, you
181. 6:15should know exactly which direction that
182. 6:16news candle is going to go. And if you
183. 6:18don't, then you're labeled as not a very
184. 6:20good trader. That is absolutely
185. 6:23ridiculous. Think about it this way.
186. 6:25Imagine you're a professional fisherman.
187. 6:27You know exactly what kind of fish
188. 6:29you're trying to catch. You know what
189. 6:30type of bait to use, where those fish
190. 6:33usually are, what time of day they're
191. 6:35active, and what conditions gives you
192. 6:37the best chance at catching them. But
193. 6:39one morning, you get to the lake and the
194. 6:41conditions are completely different. The
195. 6:43fish are not biting. The weather is
196. 6:45absolutely terrible and nothing is
197. 6:47behaving the way that you expected.
198. 6:49Would you just keep throwing random
199. 6:51things into the water for the next 8
200. 6:52hours because you feel like you're
201. 6:53supposed to catch something? Or would
202. 6:55you recognize that it's hailing and
203. 6:57snowing and there's a tornado at the
204. 6:59same time and just pack up your [ __ ] and
205. 7:01come back another day? Trading is no
206. 7:03different. You don't need to know how to
207. 7:05catch every fish in the lake at any time
208. 7:09of day. You need to get really good at
209. 7:11catching one particular type of fish
210. 7:13under specific conditions where your
211. 7:15method actually works. And when you
212. 7:18don't have those conditions, you don't
213. 7:20go fishing. That's a huge part that
214. 7:22people struggle with because in most
215. 7:24jobs, doing nothing is a bad thing. If
216. 7:27you work in construction, you're
217. 7:29expected to build something. If you work
218. 7:31in a corporate office, you're expected
219. 7:33to complete tasks. People try to bring
220. 7:35that same mentality into trading and
221. 7:38they sit down at their desks at 8:00 in
222. 7:40the morning and they think, "Okay, time
223. 7:42to work." And if they haven't placed a
224. 7:44trade by 10:00, then they're getting
225. 7:46uncomfortable. They feel unproductive.
226. 7:49They feel like they're wasting time. And
227. 7:51eventually, they start looking for
228. 7:52reasons to enter the market, forcing
229. 7:55trades, not because their strategy is
230. 7:57telling them to, but because they want
231. 7:59to feel like they're accomplishing
232. 8:00something. And that is an incredibly,
233. 8:02incredibly dangerous mindset to have
234. 8:05when every decision you make involves
235. 8:07risking your own money. So, here's
236. 8:09something that I want you to think
237. 8:10about. If you're sitting in front of
238. 8:12your computer for 6 hours staring at the
239. 8:14charts, waiting for a trade that never
240. 8:16comes, was that really a productive day?
241. 8:18Maybe you followed your rules perfectly,
242. 8:20and that's great. But what if you had
243. 8:22recognized 2 hours earlier that the
244. 8:24market wasn't offering conditions that
245. 8:25you wanted? What if you had simply
246. 8:27closed your laptop? Because here's the
247. 8:29thing, you have an entire life outside
248. 8:32of trading, and a lot of people forget
249. 8:34that. Winter is coming. If you own a
250. 8:36house, you probably have a bunch of
251. 8:38things that need to get done before the
252. 8:40snow starts falling. Maybe you've got
253. 8:41leaves all over your yard. Go rake them
254. 8:44up. Maybe you've got a garage full of
255. 8:46crap that you've been meaning to
256. 8:47organize for the last 6 months. Go clean
257. 8:51it. Maybe your office looks like a
258. 8:53tornado went through it. Get it
259. 8:54organized. You've probably got a bunch
260. 8:57of stuff sitting around your house that
261. 8:58you haven't touched in years. Old
262. 9:00electronics, furniture, tools, whatever.
263. 9:03Throw away the stuff that's worthless,
264. 9:05and take the expensive stuff you don't
265. 9:06use anymore, put it on Facebook
266. 9:08Marketplace, and make some extra money.
267. 9:10Maybe your car needs an oil change, or
268. 9:12you need to put your winter tires on. Go
269. 9:14to the mechanic. Maybe, if you're like
270. 9:17me, you've been putting off something
271. 9:19your wife has been asking you to do for
272. 9:21the last 3 weeks. Go get it done. Spend
273. 9:24some time with your kids. Go for a walk.
274. 9:26Go to the gym. Do literally anything
275. 9:29that adds value to your life. Because I
276. 9:31promise you, the market is going to be
277. 9:33there tomorrow, and you'll probably have
278. 9:35your setup tomorrow, and the day after
279. 9:37that, and the week after that. You're
280. 9:39not going to run out of trading
281. 9:40opportunities, but you're running out of
282. 9:42hours of your day. And I think that's an
283. 9:45important distinction. Time in front of
284. 9:47the computer, forcing [ __ ] that doesn't
285. 9:49seem to be there is not productive.
286. 9:51Raking leaves and fixing that loose door
287. 9:54knob that your wife's been nagging you
288. 9:56about for 3 months,
289. 9:58that's productive. Now, I know that
290. 9:59there's some of you guys out there that
291. 10:01are thinking, "This guy's full of [ __ ]
292. 10:03He doesn't know how to trade." And some
293. 10:05of you always want proof. This is an
294. 10:07account that I started on September
295. 10:0922nd, so 28 days ago. Here is every
296. 10:14single trade that I've taken on the
297. 10:16account. All of the winners, all of the
298. 10:19losers. You can see I had right here a
299. 10:21pretty big losing segment.
300. 10:24But, I've just been trading Fibonacci
301. 10:27retracements, the breakout of the Tokyo
302. 10:29session, and RSI divergences.
303. 10:33Just day in, day out. Some days I don't
304. 10:36trade cuz I don't like the way the
305. 10:37market's moving. And here on the bottom,
306. 10:39you can see my original deposit of 8,952
307. 10:44bucks. This is kind of like uh Arty's
308. 10:47play money, you know, if I want to buy a
309. 10:50new turbo for my car, or or like spend
310. 10:53some money on Pokémon cards, I take this
311. 10:56like relatively decent size capital and
312. 10:59I start trading with it. And after a few
313. 11:00months, if I've generated some money,
314. 11:02I'll withdraw some, buy new wheels for
315. 11:04the car, and then just keep trading it.
316. 11:07Sometimes I withdraw the full amount and
317. 11:09then take that capital and put it into
318. 11:11like Robinhood, where I'll buy, you
319. 11:14know, a Vanguard Index Fund, or Nvidia,
320. 11:17or Coca-Cola, or something that pays me
321. 11:19dividends. I always want to plan for
322. 11:21retirement, so like I'm constantly
323. 11:23moving money around. But, right here is
324. 11:25a screenshot of the bottom. You can see
325. 11:27the profit factor, the number of winning
326. 11:30trades, the number of losing trades. And
327. 11:33overall right now, the balance is
328. 11:35$10,894.
329. 11:38Yeah. My original balance that I
330. 11:41deposited was $8,952.
331. 11:44So, that's a profit of $1,942.
332. 11:47So, in the last 28 days, I'm up 21.6%
333. 11:52on the account.
334. 11:54Pretty [ __ ] good, dude. This is
335. 11:55something that you can do with winners
336. 11:57and losers if you just do it
337. 11:59consistently. That's why we're doing
338. 12:00this 30-day challenge of the Tokyo
339. 12:03session breakout. I'm sharing the trades
340. 12:05every morning on my Telegram group. Even
341. 12:07though I've told people to do it on a
342. 12:08demo account, some people are actually
343. 12:10doing it on funded account challenges
344. 12:13because Funded Pros doing this promo
345. 12:14where you get a $1,000 account for a
346. 12:16dollar. But like the goal was to just
347. 12:18practice, to get consistent. Just on
348. 12:21that challenge alone, everybody in the
349. 12:22community is up 6% on the month. I do
350. 12:25extra trades because I do the Fibonacci
351. 12:27retracements and the RSI divergences
352. 12:29along with it. You need to be
353. 12:32disciplined.
354. 12:33And disciplined doesn't mean sitting
355. 12:35there forcing yourself to just like I
356. 12:37have to be on the charts. Disciplined is
357. 12:40knowing when to act on an opportunity.
358. 12:43If it's not there, you don't do it. If
359. 12:46it is there, you sit there and milk the
360. 12:48[ __ ] Your job is to identify
361. 12:51patterns and trends, take advantage of
362. 12:53it, and use your edge. If your edge is
363. 12:56not present, you need to focus on the
364. 12:58rest of your life. There needs to be
365. 13:00this balance of who you are. Are you a
366. 13:02dad? Are you a handyman? Are you doing
367. 13:04side hustles? Are you married? Yes, you
368. 13:07need to make income trading. But yes,
369. 13:09you also need to focus on your life. I
370. 13:11know this was a bit of a rant, but I
371. 13:13just wanted to explain to you guys, you
372. 13:15don't have to trade every market
373. 13:16condition. I have no idea whatsoever how
374. 13:19I would have traded today. And I'm glad
375. 13:21that I didn't cuz now my desk is clean
376. 13:23as [ __ ] And I took care of all the
377. 13:24leaves outside before it started
378. 13:26raining. That's two great wins for me.
379. 13:28So, if you're questioning whether you
380. 13:31should be trading every day, whether
381. 13:32you're doing a good job or a bad job, as
382. 13:34long as you're participating in the
383. 13:36markets consistently, as long as you're
384. 13:38not abandoning your obligations in your
385. 13:40life, you're doing a great job, dude,
386. 13:42and I'm proud of you. If you guys
387. 13:44enjoyed this video or know somebody that
388. 13:45needs to see it, share it with your
389. 13:47friends, and we will see you in the next
390. 13:50one.