I Found An NFL Parlay Winning 87%... So I Tested It — Transcript

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1. 0:00I found a two-leg NFL parlay that wins
2. 0:0287% of the time. And I know that sounds
3. 0:04ridiculous because most parlays are
4. 0:06basically designed to make you lose. You
5. 0:08need multiple things to happen. One
6. 0:09player gets injured, one bad game, one
7. 0:12stupid coaching decision, and your
8. 0:13entire ticket is dead. But here's what
9. 0:15makes this one interesting. I'm
10. 0:16combining two things that happen in the
11. 0:18same game. And when one happens, it can
12. 0:20actually help the other one happen, too.
13. 0:22But there's a catch because even if I
14. 0:24estimate that both outcomes happen 87%
15. 0:27of the time, that doesn't automatically
16. 0:28mean I should bet it. So I'm going to
17. 0:29show you the exact two legs that I'm
18. 0:31looking at, how I find the right
19. 0:33players, how low I move the lines, and
20. 0:35one number that tells me whether I'm
21. 0:37actually getting a good deal. Cuz if you
22. 0:38skip that last step, you could copy this
23. 0:40exact parlay and still lose money. Let's
24. 0:42start with how most people build NFL.
25. 0:44They open DraftKings, they find a game
26. 0:46they like, they take the quarterback
27. 0:47over his passing yards, they add a
28. 0:49receiver to score a touchdown, maybe add
29. 0:51another player, then another, and
30. 0:53suddenly they've got what? A five-leg
31. 0:56parlay at plus 1,500. And they think,
32. 1:00"Man, if this hits, I'm making a
33. 1:01killing." But here's the problem. That's
34. 1:03building the parlay around the payout,
35. 1:05not the probability. And that's
36. 1:07completely backwards. The moment you
37. 1:09start building a parlay around the
38. 1:10payout, you're probably already making a
39. 1:12mistake. Because the bigger the payout
40. 1:13gets, usually the more things you need
41. 1:15to go right, and the more opportunities
42. 1:17there are for something to go wrong. So
43. 1:18instead of trying to create a parlay
44. 1:20that pays a ridiculous amount, I want to
45. 1:21create one where I'm asking for
46. 1:23relatively ordinary performances. Not
47. 1:25career games, not touchdowns from three
48. 1:27different players, just outcomes
49. 1:29supported by the way an offense normally
50. 1:31operates. And that's where the first leg
51. 1:33comes in. The first leg that I'm going
52. 1:35to look at here is going to be alternate
53. 1:37QB passing yards. Now, it can't just be
54. 1:40any quarterback and any alternate
55. 1:42passing yards number. There's
56. 1:43stipulations that you have to look for.
57. 1:44First thing is the matchup. They have to
58. 1:46be going against a bottom-10
59. 1:50team in yards per completion allowed.
60. 1:54Because we want a team that has a
61. 1:56secondary that's get shredded by the
62. 1:58quarterback. We don't want a matchup
63. 1:59where the secondary is so good that
64. 2:01it'll be hard for a quarterback just to
65. 2:03reach his normal passing yards. We also
66. 2:04want his alternate passing yards number
67. 2:07to be the yardage that he's hit 90% or
68. 2:10more of the time. Cuz now if we're
69. 2:12taking a QB passing yards number that he
70. 2:14hits 90% or more of the time, whether it
71. 2:16be the current season or the season
72. 2:17before, against a bottom 10 match up in
73. 2:20yards per completion allowed, now we
74. 2:21have an extremely high probability
75. 2:23number here. Then we have to do just a
76. 2:24simple math equation here to actually
77. 2:26get a projection on how many yards this
78. 2:28quarterback could get. So what we do is
79. 2:30we take the yards per completion
80. 2:31allowed, yards per completion, and we
81. 2:33times that by the average completions
82. 2:36per game by the quarterback. Now I'm
83. 2:38going to show you guys an example of
84. 2:39this a little bit later on the video,
85. 2:41but that little equation right there get
86. 2:43you a nice projection on what that
87. 2:44quarterback, yardage wise, is able to
88. 2:46probably hit. Now let's go ahead and get
89. 2:48to number two. Number two for the second
90. 2:50leg of this parlay is going to be wide
91. 2:53receivers receptions, and that is also
92. 2:56going to be alternate line. Now the
93. 2:57stipulations for this play means we need
94. 3:00to have the number one wide receiver on
95. 3:02that team. And how you get that is by
96. 3:04target share. So it needs to be the
97. 3:07number one target share percentage on
98. 3:10the team. So the number one target share
99. 3:11percentage guy on the team is obviously
100. 3:13going to be the number one receiver, and
101. 3:15that's who we're going to be targeting.
102. 3:16Now there's also a simple math equation
103. 3:17here to be able to know exactly what the
104. 3:20projected completions that this wide
105. 3:21receiver is going to be able to to get.
106. 3:23So that way we know where to move the
107. 3:24number. But the same stipulations as the
108. 3:26passing yards is we need to hit the
109. 3:28reception number that hits 90% or more
110. 3:32of the time. And we automatically
111. 3:34already have a good match up because if
112. 3:36the QB is going against a team that's
113. 3:38bottom 10 in yards per completion, well
114. 3:40guess where those completions are going?
115. 3:42Right here, to the number one guy on the
116. 3:44team. Now to get the projected alternate
117. 3:46receptions number, what we're going to
118. 3:48do here is we're going to take the
119. 3:50target share
120. 3:51percentage and we're going to times that
121. 3:53by the average
122. 3:55completions by the quarterback. Now once
123. 3:57you have done that, this is the most
124. 3:58important part. When you put both of
125. 4:00those parlays together. You still need
126. 4:04to have an implied probability versus a
127. 4:08true probability. Your true probability
128. 4:10is those two percentages put together.
129. 4:12The percentages of that event actually
130. 4:14occurring for both passing yards and the
131. 4:16receptions. You need to have your
132. 4:17implied probability versus your true
133. 4:19probability and it needs to equal a
134. 4:21positive edge. Because if it doesn't and
135. 4:24it's a negative edge, then we have to
136. 4:26cancel out the parlay all together and
137. 4:28try again with something else. Now, let
138. 4:29me show you an example of how all this
139. 4:31comes together. Let's say for our
140. 4:32quarterback, we have Sam Darnold for the
141. 4:34Seahawks. And his number one wide
142. 4:36receiver is JSN, Jackson Smith-Njigba.
143. 4:39Okay? That's the number one receiver on
144. 4:41the team. Now, we first need his passing
145. 4:43yards. So, if we take a look at 150 plus
146. 4:46passing yards for Sam, we get a 93%
147. 4:51true probability of this occurring, him
148. 4:53being able to get 150 plus passing
149. 4:55yards. Now, let's go ahead and take a
150. 4:57look at JSN because now we need his
151. 4:59receiving. So, if we take a look at his
152. 5:01receptions, four plus is the number that
153. 5:03gets us over that 90% threshold and gets
154. 5:06us actually 92% true probability. So,
155. 5:08now we have a 93% true probability for
156. 5:11Sam Darnold to get 150 and we have four
157. 5:13plus by JSN to get receptions at a 92%
158. 5:17clip. Now, we're also saying that we
159. 5:18have the perfect match-up here as well.
160. 5:20All right? With the yards per completion
161. 5:22bottom 10 and all that. So, now when we
162. 5:24combine both of these together, we're
163. 5:26going to get odds on a parlay that are
164. 5:28going to be minus 554, which equals an
165. 5:32implied probability of 84%. But now,
166. 5:35when you put a 93% play and a 92% play
167. 5:38together, the true probability of both
168. 5:40of those occurring ends up being
169. 5:4387%,
170. 5:45which creates a plus 3% edge, exactly
171. 5:49what we are looking for. We want a plus
172. 5:51edge on a parlay with both of these put
173. 5:54together, which would be passing yards
174. 5:56and receptions for a good match-up
175. 5:59against a bottom 10 team in yards per
176. 6:01completion that creates a plus edge.
177. 6:03Now, let me show you those projections
178. 6:05on the math problems that we were
179. 6:06pulling up earlier. So, let's first look
180. 6:08at the passing yards. Darnold averages
181. 6:1021.8 completions per game. If we times
182. 6:14that by the team he's going against, and
183. 6:16let's say they're giving up 12.5 yards
184. 6:19per completion, that gives us a
185. 6:20projection of 272, way over what number
186. 6:24we need at 150. Now, for the receptions,
187. 6:27we're going to take Darnold's
188. 6:28completions at 21.8
189. 6:30and times that by the target share
190. 6:32percentage that goes to JSN, which is
191. 6:35.0368.
192. 6:3836.8%
193. 6:39of target share goes to JSN, which
194. 6:42equals eight receptions on a projection
195. 6:45line. And we just need four. So, we
196. 6:47don't even need them to have an average
197. 6:48game per these projections. We need them
198. 6:50to underperform and still be able to hit
199. 6:52that parlay. Now, I'm going to hop in
200. 6:54the couch here and show you guys how you
201. 6:55could put this combo together just a
202. 6:57couple clicks. Now, you can do all the
203. 6:58calculations that I just showed you
204. 7:00right now. It would probably take you
205. 7:01anywhere between maybe an hour to an
206. 7:03hour and a half to be able to find the
207. 7:04exact match-up that you need to create
208. 7:06that parlay. But, I've created a way
209. 7:07faster way for you to be able to do
210. 7:09this, and it's using the Line Maker AI
211. 7:11chatbot. So, all you would have to do is
212. 7:13literally prompt it with the correct
213. 7:14information that I just showed you, and
214. 7:15pretty much say, "Find me the best
215. 7:18two-leg parlay for passing yards and
216. 7:20receptions against a team that's bottom
217. 7:2310 in yards per completion." And
218. 7:25literally in seconds, it'll pop out the
219. 7:27exact two-leg parlay that you need
220. 7:29without doing any extra work. So, if you
221. 7:31want to save time and try out the Line
222. 7:32Maker AI chatbot, make sure you guys
223. 7:34click the link in the description. So,
224. 7:36if we go over here and let's put in the
225. 7:37Seahawks game. If we go to combo, you
226. 7:39guys can see this combo right here in
227. 7:40the corner here. We click combo there,
228. 7:42this is what you're going to see. You
229. 7:43would click right here on the match-up.
230. 7:45You go to props. First, we'd go to
231. 7:47passing yards. And what did we say?
232. 7:48Darnold 150.
233. 7:50So, we would say 150, and you would hit
234. 7:52the 91% which means yes. Green means
235. 7:54yes, red means no. So, you'd put that
236. 7:56there. Now, what do we need to We need
237. 7:58to get the receptions here for JSN. So,
238. 8:01now we'd go to receptions. You would go
239. 8:03to JSN, and look, his average is eight
240. 8:06plus what our projected total is, right?
241. 8:08And that's exactly where that number's
242. 8:09at, but we're moving those all the way
243. 8:10to what? Four. And that's at 92%. We
244. 8:12would select yes, and we'd bring it up
245. 8:14here, and just like that, we created a
246. 8:16two market combo of Sam Darnold 150 plus
247. 8:20passing yards and JSN four plus
248. 8:23receptions. Just like that, you created
249. 8:24a parlay that's going to win 87% of the
250. 8:26time. As always, I'm Frank Lyman at
251. 8:28Sports. I'll see you guys in the next
252. 8:30video. Till then, I'm