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I Found A Secret To The First Candle Rule — Transcript

by Jesse Rogers | Casper SMC · 5,053 words · 677 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00The first candle rule has taken over day
0:02trading and there's a reason for that
0:03because hundreds of traders are seeing
0:05success with this strategy. But after
0:07trading hundreds of these setups, I
0:09found something inside that candle that
0:11most traders never realize and it's a
0:13big part of how I was able to turn
0:15$9,000 into over $170,000.
0:19And to prove that to you, we're going to
0:20log into my broker together. But that's
0:23not the point. The point is that after
0:25you see what I'm about to teach you in
0:26this video, you will never look at the
0:28first candle the same way
0:31All right, guys. So as you can see, we
0:33are here on tradovate.com on a regulated
0:35broker and I'm going to log in with you
0:36guys so you guys can see my trading
0:38results. We're going to click live
0:39trading right here and once it gets in
0:42here, we're going to go over to the
0:43reports right here. I'm going to go back
0:46to when I started this account, which
0:49was November 5th
0:51to date, which today is March 17th. And
0:55as you can see, $170,000 in gross
0:58profit. Total on the account is
1:00$177,000.
1:02It's a live account as you can see right
1:03here. Now I want to be clear that these
1:05results are not typical. I've been doing
1:06this for 10 years. You're not going to
1:08go out and get the exact same results as
1:09me. I just show you guys this not to
1:11flex, but because transparency is very
1:14important in the trading industry. If
1:15you haven't noticed already, the first
1:17candle rule has taken over day trading
1:20and this is a strategy that I coined
1:22based on the opening range breakout. And
1:24it's very simple. You're going to mark
1:26the high and the low of either the first
1:2815 minute or the first 5 minute candle
1:30and watch for a breakout. That simple.
1:32But one thing that I noticed is after
1:34hundreds of these trades, I found
1:36something inside the first candle that
1:38changes the game entirely. And what I
1:40was mainly studying was the patterns
1:43between not only the wins, but the
1:45losses. Because a lot of times you'll
1:47take the same exact setup, the same
1:49rule, but you'll get a different result
1:51and then there will be some streaks of
1:53this. And it's not that losses are a
1:55problem, it's just that not knowing why
1:58you're losing is because whenever you
2:00learn why you're losing, often times
2:03that is where some of your biggest
2:04breakthroughs in trading will occur. So
2:06I took it upon myself to study hundreds
2:08of first candle setups. I wanted to
2:10understand why some worked and some
2:12didn't. Not just the pattern, but the
2:14logic. Now, this book right here, The
2:16Laws of Trading, is probably my favorite
2:18book ever written on trading and it was
2:20written by a quant at Jane Street. Now,
2:22Jane Street is one of the most
2:24profitable firms out there. They make
2:26billions and billions of dollars and
2:28this quote went something like, "If you
2:30can't explain your edge, then you don't
2:33have one."
2:34And that line changed everything for me.
2:36And this is what pushed me to dig deeper
2:38and what pushed me to find the secret
2:39that helped me flip that account. Now,
2:40the quant's name is Augustine Lebron and
2:43his logic is that there is a three-point
2:46system to finding an edge and most of
2:48you guys think number one is just going
2:50to be data. That's what a lot of people
2:52think that firms use. That's actually
2:54not the case. The first step for them is
2:57asking why an edge would even work.
3:00After that, step number two is to figure
3:03out who is losing, right? Who is in the
3:05losing side of the market? And only
3:07after they do that, do they get into
3:08step number three, which is the data
3:11invalidating the strategy. Now, why does
3:13any of this even matter? Well, because
3:15with the first candle rule, you're just
3:17going to be trading, you know, the
3:18breakout of a first candle's high and
3:21low. And this is great, but a lot of
3:23traders don't really realize why they're
3:25trading this and they also don't realize
3:27what's happening when the market starts
3:29to fade away and give a false breakout.
3:32And right here is where part of the
3:34secret resides. So here's what we're
3:36going to cover today to unveil that.
3:38First, we're going to go over what is
3:40inside this candle. And this is a layer
3:42that separates the winning trades from
3:44the losing ones. And this is the biggest
3:46pattern that I found when going through
3:48all of the data that I was reviewing.
3:50Next, we're going to talk about how you
3:51can get two setups from one candle. Not
3:54just breakouts, but also reversals. And
3:56then we're going to go over real chart
3:58and trade examples, that way you can see
4:00exactly how this works. Now, when it
4:01comes to the first candle, what most
4:03people see are the high and the low.
4:07Pretty simple, but this only tells you
4:09where price went. It does not tell you
4:12what happened inside. And remember, step
4:15one of the way that quants and
4:17professional traders find an edge is
4:19they ask why. And if all we're marking
4:22is this high and low, we don't really
4:24have conviction in what we're doing.
4:26We're kind of just trading a pattern,
4:27which is why a lot of traders have
4:29trading psychology issues. People think
4:30that they have a trading psychology
4:31issue because trading is hard and
4:34they're a bad person or bad trader. No,
4:36that's not it. It's just because you
4:37don't have conviction. Because if all
4:39you're doing is just trading a pattern
4:40through this and you don't get why
4:42you're trading it, then you're never
4:44going to have true conviction, even if
4:45you backtested it because there's no
4:47logic to it. So what we want to see is
4:49behind these big moves, was there
4:51actually big money behind it? Because if
4:54there wasn't, this is where you're going
4:55to get a fakeout. And I know a lot of
4:57you guys are sitting there thinking,
4:58"Yeah, I would love to know that. How do
4:59you do it?" And it's not going to be
5:01some complicated system or strategy.
5:04It's a really simple tool that literally
5:06tells you with data whether they were
5:07involved in the market or not. And that
5:09tool is called the value area. Now, the
5:12value area is pretty simple. It's just
5:14where 70% of the volume was traded. So
5:16let's just say we have this candle right
5:18here and you're just going to be looking
5:21typically at the wicks and the body,
5:23right? Those are the only levels you
5:24have from a regular candlestick chart.
5:26So you're looking at these levels that
5:29are visible to the naked eye, but real
5:31professionals are looking at something
5:33different. They're looking at the value
5:35area. Now, the value area is just where
5:3770% of the volume was traded inside this
5:40candle and it's never going to be right
5:42around the high or the low. Because the
5:44reason the high or the low is made is a
5:46reaction to volume, okay? Price is more
5:50of an indicator than volume. A lot of
5:52people mix this up and they think
5:53volume's an indicator, but price is a
5:55result of volume. So if you can
5:57determine where the market was really in
6:00agreement, meaning in this value area,
6:03right? That is what we call the 70% area
6:06of the volume profile. Now, I'm going to
6:08show you guys this on a chart, but I
6:10want you to understand this concept
6:11right now. If you can understand where
6:1370% of the volume happened, if the
6:17market starts to move past this area,
6:19that is the true level you want to
6:21watch. And if the market can give you
6:23specific behavior outside of this area,
6:26you're going to have much more
6:27conviction, a better entry, and overall
6:30better trades than if you wait for the
6:32high. But the real gem is what happens
6:35whenever the market doesn't get accepted
6:37and we pop back into the range. This is
6:40going to give you some of the most
6:42explosive trades. And if you haven't
6:43realized already, this happens more
6:45often than not. Now, these abbreviations
6:47you see here, the VAH, which is just the
6:50value area high, which is the high of
6:52the little box that we have that where
6:55the 70% of volume was traded. The value
6:57area low is just the low. Now, the point
6:59of control is another level that we're
7:01going to get into here in a minute, but
7:03this is the single place where the most
7:05volume was traded. As you can see, this
7:07middle bar was the largest bar. And what
7:10these are showing you is just volume at
7:12price. Typically, you would look at
7:13volume lower on your screen and it would
7:16just be bars, but that's just going to
7:17tell you how much volume was in each
7:18candle. This can show you the volume
7:21that was traded at price. Where was that
7:23volume traded? So it's much more
7:24powerful. Now, the edge that I found was
7:26that one candle can give you two trades.
7:29We have our breakout entries, which is
7:31where price leaves that value area, then
7:34it pulls back, tests the area, and makes
7:36a big move. Or we have when the market
7:39fails. And again, this is where a lot of
7:41traders get burned. And when we get a
7:44pattern that pushes us back into this
7:46range, when we can see that the smart
7:48money is selling, that is where we can
7:50get a really good setup to the downside.
7:53Now, the reason this is powerful is
7:54because we want to look at it like this.
7:56If 70% of the trading happened in that
7:58value area, that is what we want to look
8:00at as premium or discount pricing. So
8:04discount would be at the lows and
8:05premium is going to be at the highs. If
8:08you see a market that is moving to a
8:10premium price and the market is just
8:12agreeing that that's okay, meaning it's
8:14just staying outside of that, retesting
8:16it, and then moving higher, well, you
8:18could say that there aren't really
8:19sellers that are in control of the
8:20market because if there were sellers in
8:21control of the market, they would want
8:23to be selling for a premium. It's kind
8:25of like an auction. If they say, "Hey,
8:27we've got 100, 110, 120, 130" and people
8:30are just willing to keep buying, keep
8:32buying. Well, where are they going to
8:33go? The auctioneer is going to keep
8:35pushing the price higher and that's
8:36exactly how markets work. Now, vice
8:39versa, if we are going to the downside,
8:41then we are breaking out, you would be
8:43looking at it and saying, "Well, are
8:44buyers going to step in?" Because if the
8:46market's at a discount, it would be
8:48getting bought if it was bullish, right?
8:49If you have a item in the real world
8:52that is a hot commodity, right? Like
8:54maybe it's some popular item, some
8:56designer item that is rare, whatever.
8:58There's going to be a lot of people that
9:00want to buy it if it were cheaper than
9:01it actually was supposed to be. But if
9:03no one was around to buy it, well, price
9:05is going to continue dropping. And this
9:06is what you see with like NFTs and
9:08really any asset in the world. But the
9:09point I want you to take away from this
9:11is the mechanical version of the FCR,
9:13which is the first candle rule, only
9:14sees breakouts. This sees both. And not
9:17only that, it gives you a way better
9:20risk-reward and overall better entries
9:23when you do get a breakout. But the data
9:24shows that the reversal is often the
9:26higher probability trade. Let's hop
9:28right into step number one of what we
9:30are going to call the first candle value
9:33strategy. So first, we're just going to
9:36mark the value area and you want to
9:38check the context. Now, we're going to
9:40go over how to check this context on a
9:42chart and to do that, I'm going to pull
9:44up ATAS. Now, ATAS is a different
9:47charting platform than TradingView
9:49because it gives you real volume data.
9:51If you want to get my presets so you
9:53don't have to wrestle all the settings,
9:55I have exported it and I've left a link
9:56down in the description that you can
9:58join my free trading community and it
10:00will be inside there in the resources
10:02channel. And once you download it, you
10:03would just go into the settings and hit
10:05import and you'll just put in the file.
10:07So on this platform, it's very similar
10:08to TradingView. Again, the only
10:10difference is it has real volume data.
10:12On TradingView, the volume data is based
10:14on ticks. So let me just draw out this
10:16profile. So on this chart, you would go
10:18over here to volume analysis and then
10:20you would hit the profile and TPO. And
10:23if you look at the time right here, this
10:25is 9:30 a.m. So you want to take this
10:27whole range from 9:30 to 9:45. So it
10:31would be those three candles. We've got
10:33the 9:30 candle, the 9:35, and the 9:40
10:36because we are on the 5-minute chart, as
10:38you can see right here. And we're
10:40marking out the first 15 minutes of the
10:41day. Now, the reason I'm doing this on
10:42the 5-minute chart is because this is
10:44where we're going to find our entry. So
10:45as you can see here, we have the value
10:47area high right there and we've got the
10:50value area low. So these are the levels
10:52you want to be paying attention to. So
10:54once you have marked out this first
10:55value range, what you want to be paying
10:58attention to is how the market reacts
11:00when we dip outside of it. So as you can
11:02see right here, we traded outside of it,
11:05but when the market tried to retest it,
11:06meaning it came outside and it hit back
11:09into the level, we actually came down
11:11and closed a candle back inside of it.
11:13And when this candle closed, that is an
11:16execution. So you would come over here
11:18to plot your trade and click the short
11:20position because if we hit into the high
11:22and then close back inside, you're going
11:23to want to be going short because buyers
11:25got trapped. Remember we talked about
11:27the why this works. Well, why is because
11:30we can see that the market is selling
11:32off as soon as it gets to premium
11:34pricing. Number two was who is wrong in
11:36the market. All of these buyers were
11:38trapped. And if we zoom in here, um
11:41ignore all the footprints in these
11:42candles. If you guys want to make more
11:43videos on those, it's just profiles in
11:45each candle, but pay attention to this
11:47profile right here. As you can see, most
11:50of the buying happened down here lower
11:52in the candle. So if we know that the
11:54most amount of traders got active down
11:56in this area, but the market's moving
11:58aggressively, well, what are these
12:00traders up here? These are likely retail
12:02traders cuz they can't account for much
12:04volume. They're not really, you know,
12:06pushing much mass in the market. So
12:08they're all getting trapped in the
12:09market. And they're going to be in
12:11positions all through here. They're
12:13longing all through this. And they're
12:15going to end up getting stopped out of
12:17this trade and when they get stopped out
12:19of their trade, that is going to be
12:22rocket fuel for moves to the downside
12:24because if someone's in a long and
12:26they're exiting the market, well, that
12:28is the equivalent to a sell, okay? So if
12:30they're selling and then we also see
12:32smart money is selling because they're
12:34pushing back in, you can look at it like
12:35these guys got faked out. And you're
12:38going to take a trade at that time and
12:40you're going to put your target where
12:41all of those people's stop losses
12:43because if all of these traders got in
12:44in that first 15 minutes, well, their
12:46stop's going to be at the low of the
12:48first 15 minutes. So you're going to
12:49target that low. But right then, you're
12:52not going to just take profits. And this
12:54is where my trading differentiates from
12:56a lot of people. You're going to want to
12:57start trailing your stop loss up to the
13:00candle that hit into that level. Now,
13:03let me give you an example of the trade
13:04that I actually took on this setup. Now,
13:06this is something I broke down in a full
13:08volume profile course here on YouTube.
13:10If you want to watch this video, but
13:12let's take a look at this exact setup
13:14that I took. That way you guys can see
13:17what I'm talking about. So as you can
13:18see, I entered the market and then the
13:20market started to move down. Every time
13:22after we hit into this level, I'm
13:23trailing my stop up at each candle.
13:26Boom. Boom. Boom. Boom. And you see that
13:28I'm able to get a much bigger trade.
13:30Now, on this trade, I was up $13,000,
13:33but I ended up getting a little bit of
13:35that taken back from me and making
13:37$11,000, but still pretty good if you
13:40ask me. But the reason I'm able to do
13:42this is because I am looking at this
13:44like a squeeze. I'm looking at this
13:45like, okay, well, these traders came
13:48into the market, these buyers up in
13:51here, but they're retail buyers. And
13:53then all of those retail buyers, all
13:55these guys up here, right? They're
13:57underwater. So the market's likely not
13:59going to move back up to where they're
14:00at. And they're just going to keep
14:02exiting and as soon as they get stopped
14:03out here, if sellers are really in
14:05control, this is like rocket fuel. So
14:08see how understanding why you're doing
14:11what you're doing is very powerful
14:13because then you can keep moving your
14:14stops up, keep moving your stops up. And
14:16And right here was where I end up
14:17getting stopped out. So if you see, it's
14:19a big, big difference from, say, where
14:22we are at right here with a 1.6 risk
14:24reward all the way down to here with a
14:272.37. Now, sometimes you'll be able to
14:29get even higher risk to reward on very
14:31explosive days. And I'm sure you guys
14:33can think of some days where you've had
14:35a stop out on the first candle rule and
14:36it just went insanely against you. And
14:39this can help you not only avoid those
14:41setups or avoid those fake outs, but
14:43help you capitalize on them. Now, let's
14:45take a look at another day. And both of
14:47these are recent examples. This is just
14:48on March 9th. So as we can see right
14:51here, we're going to mark out the first
14:5315 minutes of the day. So here was the
14:55high of that first 15 minutes. We're
14:57going to go down to that 9:40 candle and
14:59we're going to mark right down to its
15:01low. So in this example, we can see that
15:04in that profile,
15:06there was the value area high up here
15:09and the value area low. So if we were
15:11just want to take a rectangle and we can
15:13draw this out to have a little bit of a
15:14cleaner chart, we can just draw this out
15:16and then we can zoom out and see how the
15:18market reacted to this price action. So
15:22in this example, you would have actually
15:24taken one loss. And I'm not here to tell
15:26you guys that you would ever just have
15:30a, you know, perfect strategy that's
15:31never going to take a loss. So I'm going
15:32to walk you guys through how to handle a
15:34losing day and turn it to a winning one.
15:36So in this setup, you had hit into that
15:39first candle's value area and then
15:41retested it and closed down. So I would
15:44have entered the trade right there and
15:45then you could have put a stop loss
15:48right at that candle
15:50at its high right there, right at that
15:52retest candle's high. And then in this
15:54example, I would have looked to target
15:55down lower towards some lows over in
15:57this area because we had already traded
16:00under that area. If it's a breakout, I'm
16:02just going to look for our the nearest
16:04lows right around that two to one risk
16:06to reward. If you like, you can just
16:08trade a mechanical two to one risk to
16:09reward, but I found that often times
16:11you'll go a little bit further than
16:12that. However, that was a losing setup.
16:15So what do you do at this time? This is
16:17where a lot of you guys just panic. You
16:19say, "Oh my god, loss. I suck at
16:21trading. I'm going to get on YouTube and
16:22watch another strategy video." No, we're
16:24not going to do that anymore. Because
16:26once you understand the why, you can
16:27say, "Hey, look. Okay, cool. Well,
16:29sellers really tried to push the market
16:30down here." Now, let's take a look a
16:32little bit deeper at this profile. We
16:34can see that it's pretty, you know, it's
16:36not balanced. It's definitely not a
16:37balanced profile, but there's not any,
16:39you know,
16:40there's not a huge amount of sellers
16:42down here. There's also not a huge
16:44amount of sellers up here. Um or traders
16:47up here more so than there are down
16:48here. So you could say that at the end
16:50of the day, if the market can really
16:51start to pop back into this range,
16:53there's not really a reason why you
16:55shouldn't take a buy. And a lot of
16:56traders will say, "Oh, that's
16:57overtrading." It's genuinely not. You
16:59know, it's sometimes you're going to
17:00lose a trade and you're going to say,
17:01"Hey, I was wrong." and be able to take
17:03a trade in the other direction. I know
17:05that whenever I first started trading, I
17:06was really scared of this and I felt
17:09like this was gambling, but at the end
17:10of the day, guys, like this is trading.
17:12Um so the first setup you could have
17:14taken here, the first long, is that once
17:17the market started to close back into
17:18this area, you could have taken a long
17:20right here and it would have had a kind
17:22of a wide stop loss, but you would have
17:25put your stop down at this low right
17:27there,
17:28and it would have worked out, right? You
17:30could have just targeted up higher and
17:32let the market kind of run and do its
17:33thing. And you could look over here and
17:35what I like to do in these setups
17:37is kind of just look over to the left
17:39and see if there's any key levels. Now,
17:40here we had a gap right here. So you
17:43could have just traded this towards that
17:44gap fill and then started to trail up
17:46your stop loss after that. Now, another
17:49setup you can do and and you can also
17:50just use a fixed two to one here. Um but
17:53on these kinds of setups, like if you
17:54have a really big move in the morning,
17:56sometimes I like to just look for some
17:58kind of key level over to the left. Now,
18:00another setup you can look at as well is
18:04if you missed that one, did you get that
18:05breakout? And this is how you can look
18:07to spot a breakout. In this example
18:10right here, you want to think of it
18:11like, okay, well, the market not only,
18:14you know, trapped sellers, right? We saw
18:16sellers step in. They were trying to
18:18sell off for these, you know, discount
18:20prices, but buyers finally stepped in
18:22under all these lows and then pushed the
18:24market back up. So you can say from that
18:26happening, buyers are in control, okay?
18:28If buyers are in control, what do you
18:30want to see happen at premium prices? So
18:34let's say if we get right into this
18:35area, which is what we have determined
18:37as premium prices based on that value We
18:39didn't determine this. The market said
18:41that. It's a value area high. So if the
18:43market gets above that and closes and
18:46starts to really form an aggressive move
18:48to the upside and and stay up there,
18:50anytime you have some kind of move down,
18:52that is where you're going to want to
18:54take a trade. So in this example, we
18:57went down into a fair value gap. Now, if
18:59you don't know what a fair value gap is,
19:01it is just the gap between candles'
19:03wick. So notice how this candle right
19:05here, its high did not touch this
19:08candle's low. So this candle was
19:09expansive and it formed a gap. So as
19:11soon as you start pushing outside of the
19:14first candle's value and you start to
19:16form key levels, if you dig back into
19:18one, you can take a trade there. And
19:20then on these kinds of trades, I like to
19:22just trail my stops up and not really
19:24take profits. Like I I'm not a big uh
19:27profit taker. Like I I would rather, for
19:29example, once we get something like this
19:31and we get this engulfing right here, I
19:33would just enter the trade and I would
19:35keep my stops here to start. And I would
19:37just have an open TP. Like I'm literally
19:38just going to let my trade run. And if
19:40the market, you know, starts to make a
19:42big move up right As soon as we make
19:43this pop up and we're trading momentum,
19:46I'm moving my stop to break even, right?
19:48Now, a lot of people get scared and say,
19:49"Oh, it's too too early to do that." I
19:51don't care. Like I would rather just be
19:53aggressive moving my stop up every time
19:54like we make a swing low and move up,
19:56I'd move my stop right under that low.
19:58Again, let me just delete this so you
20:00can see. I'd move it right under that
20:01low again. And then every time we make a
20:03swing low, I'd move it again and again
20:05and again. And this is going to help you
20:07a lot of times get way more out of your
20:09trades than just letting trades turn
20:11around and come back and stop you at
20:12break even.
20:13So, the reason for this and the reason
20:15that I would do this in this example is
20:17because we have a lot of energy. Right?
20:20If you If you're If you're seeing a lot
20:21of energy in the market, you've already
20:22seen one side wrong. You have your why.
20:24You have who's wrong. At this point, you
20:26don't really want to see the market wait
20:28around a lot. So, these are kind of tips
20:30that, you know, typically with these
20:31videos I I make them like really stupid
20:33simple and just go one, two, three, but
20:35I really want to start giving you guys a
20:36lot more value here on the channel and
20:38going in a lot deeper. So, hopefully you
20:40guys enjoy this. Uh leave a comment if
20:41you like this kind of deep dive
20:43explanation. So, remember, step one is
20:46to mark the value of that first candle.
20:48Step two is to wait for a breakout or
20:49reversal. And step number three is to
20:51execute and manage the trade. And when I
20:53say manage the trade, I mean use your
20:55trailing stop loss. Another way you can
20:57use stop losses in this strategy is you
20:59can actually put it at the value area
21:01high. This gives you a lot better risk
21:04to reward. As you can see, this
21:06increases that significantly. So, if
21:08you're trading a reversal and you're
21:10hitting into the value area high, you're
21:11coming back down, you can put your stop
21:13right there at that value area high. You
21:15now have everything you need to go out
21:17and trade this in the markets tomorrow.
21:19You have a full strategy on how to
21:21execute using what you've learned. But,
21:23I want to be clear, having a strategy is
21:25the easy part, which is why I built my
21:27mentorship the way I did. Inside, you
21:29have someone trading with you live, 10
21:31sessions a week if you need it in the
21:33London and New York sessions. You have
21:36somebody checking every single trade
21:37that you take in our own proprietary app
21:39giving you direct feedback on all of
21:41your trades and correcting your
21:42mistakes. And you get your own coach
21:44assigned to you to hold you accountable
21:46to going through the process. If you
21:48want to apply to work with me in my
21:50mentorship, I'll leave the link in the
21:52description. I want to be clear that not
21:54everybody gets in. So, if the link isn't
21:56working, then that means the enrollments
21:58are closed. But, as long as it's
21:59working, there are still slots remaining
22:01for this enrollment. And regardless if
22:03we work together or not, I am rooting
22:04for you to win. And truthfully, you can
22:07do this all on your own. That's pretty
22:08much how I did it. It just took me many
22:10years. So, I do offer the mentorship if
22:13you want a fast track and learn from my
22:15mistakes. But, by no means you have to
22:16do it. I'm going to always post a ton of
22:18free content here on YouTube. Again, I
22:20have a free volume profile course that
22:22is super long and goes over everything
22:24from the basics to advanced applications
22:27of the volume profile. So, if you want
22:28to learn more about that, I'll leave a
22:30link to that in the description as well.
22:32Make sure to subscribe to the channel if
22:33you found this video valuable. Thank you
22:35guys for watching and I'll see you in
22:36the next one.

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