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I Analyzed 1.000 "Stop Hunts" with Orderflow… Here’s What I Found Out — Transcript

by Andrea Cimi · 2,774 words · 378 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00hey Bank don't hunt for your stop loss
0:02don't worry Bank don't give an utter
0:04[ __ ] about your 0.46 stop loss on gbpusd
0:08maybe your cfd prop firm or your cfd
0:10broker will care because that's who you
0:12are actually trading against but when
0:14you delve deep into real Market
0:16mechanics not some cheap YouTube
0:18conspiracy theory and you start looking
0:20at actual orderflow data like with
0:21Footprints or heat Maps you quickly
0:23start realizing that some of the things
0:24if not most things you've been taught in
0:26the trading space especially this thing
0:28about Banks hunting for retail stoploss
0:30is complete and utter [ __ ] in a
0:32previous video I provided not an opinion
0:34okay a datab backed explanation and
0:37debunking on the concept of stop hunting
0:39so be sure of checking that out today we
0:41will go even deeper into this concept
0:43and every single time a high is being
0:44swept or a low is being swept we will
0:46see what's happening behind the scenes
0:48or behind the candles so that we can
0:50have a clear understanding on what's
0:52actually going on so we're starting from
0:54the 19th of March on the es contract by
0:57seeing that all of these highs were
0:58swept by this movement so if we go deep
1:00into that movement and see what's
1:02happening behind the candles this is
1:04what a usual stop run would look like
1:06let's just make the number a little
1:07bigger and as you can see when stops hit
1:10they ask they raise up price and Market
1:12maker are absorbing all of that buy
1:15inertia by being passive Sellers and you
1:17can realize that there was a Sprint in
1:19this candle because there's zero
1:20contract and zero contracts all over
1:22here but this happened at 4 a.m. so
1:25we're still in the Asian session but
1:26still some of those stops were triggered
1:28let's see what happens when we we sweep
1:30some lows during the London session
1:32instead we see that down here yes maybe
1:35some aggressive selling has happened but
1:37not that much there's not a lot of
1:38imbalances not a lot of Delta then once
1:41we go below those lows once again
1:43there's a little bit of a selling
1:44activity but very few so this is not a
1:46stop run per se there was not a lot of
1:48stops being triggered here this is what
1:50we called a failed auction so sellers
1:53trying to break below but not having
1:55enough strength to push it lower and
1:56lower instead new aggressive buyers
1:58start skiing in so yes a low has been
2:01swept but this is not a stop run and for
2:03sure they didn't hunt for retail stop-
2:05loss as we discussed let's see what
2:06happens once we go above that level new
2:09buy orders starts kicking in and as you
2:11can see volume starts Rising but even if
2:13there is some sort of stop run right
2:15above here which by the way is exactly
2:17Above This High firstly we see a lot of
2:20aggressive selling at that level but
2:21only once we sweep above this other high
2:24then we see an actual stop run this is
2:26more likely to be a stop run and as you
2:28can see we don't go down right away and
2:30invert for the rest of the session we
2:32just simply reabsorb this quick
2:34imbalance created by the stop run and
2:36then we keep moving higher as we keep
2:38moving higher we have more breakout
2:40buyers so aggressive orders eventually
2:42there was someone there who was trying
2:44to absorb that pressure but couldn't
2:45make it so we push higher even more once
2:47we break above here the Delta is 14 so
2:50this is not a stop run because there's a
2:52lot of aggressive selling activity in
2:54this area if it was just stops we would
2:56have seen a very green candle above here
2:59in all this part and hence a much higher
3:02Delta so this is not a stop run so when
3:04we went above all of the daily highs
3:07because this was also previous day high
3:09probably there was not a lot of stops
3:11being triggered here this is more buyers
3:13trying to push higher but sellers
3:15clearly showing that they are in control
3:17with an imbalance on top and the new
3:19initiative candle with new imbalances
3:22that eventually brings price back down
3:24so now after this High has been swept
3:26these lows over here should be the next
3:28Target we got also the these lows over
3:30here let's see what happens in those
3:32candles here there seems to be a little
3:35push down here but not a lot of
3:36contracts Exchange in the lower part and
3:38just with a little aggression buyers get
3:40back in control now let's see what
3:42happens below this candle we see some
3:43stops being triggered we bounce back up
3:45and then after this low more aggressive
3:47selling starts kicking in so this is not
3:49a search for liquidity this is actual
3:52selling pressure pushing price and the
3:54auction overall lower and lower and
3:56lower and lower and lower and lower and
3:58even lower still we don't have a lot of
4:00data on what happens here on what was
4:02before here if there was a important low
4:04so let's move on a little bit and take a
4:06look at what happened below these lows
4:08and Below these lows and above these
4:11highs and these highs we can see that
4:13below these lows nothing interesting
4:16really happened and no stop was
4:17triggered below the daily lows so this
4:19is overall a failed auction there was
4:21less and less interests in selling here
4:23no stop loss was triggered there was not
4:25at all any liquidity grab below here
4:28whatever that means let's see what what
4:29happened up here instead once we sweeped
4:31the first High here we have seen some
4:34increasing buying activity which could
4:36be a stop run we would need MB data to
4:38qualify it but anyways we have some
4:40response as you can see like we have all
4:42of these green candles that suggests us
4:44that passive sellers were absorbing all
4:47of this very little buying activity and
4:49then with just a little aggressive
4:50selling price went completely on the
4:52other side but let's see what happens
4:54above the current session high and as we
4:56can see not a lot of activity here
4:58either I would also Define it as a
5:00failed auction not a lot of stops being
5:02triggered now now let's see what happens
5:03here probably by the way at this point
5:05at this time of the day in this day
5:07there could have been some sort of fomc
5:09data or meeting so let's see what
5:11happens below the low that they plotted
5:14during that news event as we can see
5:16there is some volume here but not
5:18surprisingly high volume volume is high
5:19all over the previous candles actually
5:21here were not even that high 12K con we
5:23have 9k contracts 12K contracts and an
5:26exhaustion in sellers there was not a
5:28lot of stops being triggered below here
5:30let's see once we break Above This High
5:32what happens not a lot of activity here
5:34once we break above that though then we
5:36really start seeing some buying
5:38aggression coming in this candle is 10K
5:40contracts way higher than all the
5:42previous candles in fact when we test
5:44all this area of huge aggressive buying
5:46we keep trading higher and higher and
5:48higher now we traded all the way higher
5:50let's see what happened at the top right
5:52above all of these highs and look at how
5:54many highs there are here there is this
5:56high this high this high this high this
5:58highs let's see what what happens here
6:00there must be a lot of volume right
6:012,000 contracts breadcrumbs okay very
6:04very few contracts a couple of stops
6:07being executed here but nothing worth
6:09hunting and even if you would expect a
6:11lot a lot a lot of cell stop above here
6:13there's very very little volume
6:16exchanged here so this is definitely not
6:19a liquidity grab because if it was a
6:20real liquidity grab you would have seen
6:22way more volume but even if there's not
6:24a lot of volume here as we have seen
6:26still the move down is so impressive so
6:29if the theory of huh they went up here
6:32because they wanted more liquidity to
6:33fuel the next move doesn't make any
6:36[ __ ] sense the real liquidity was
6:38exchanged here not above this High not
6:41below these lows but here because in all
6:43of this area a lot of volume has been
6:45exchanged this is where the fight
6:47actually happened above here as we can
6:49see from the volume profile there's
6:50little to no volume traded so thinking
6:53that this move happened because they
6:54needed more liquidity guys most of the
6:56liquidity was exchanged here don't worry
6:58they're not hunting for your stop losses
6:59now at some points right here we went
7:01below all these lows and all these lows
7:04so there must be a lot of volume right
7:06here and we are at the end of the
7:07session so I guess that in this candle
7:09there's probably a lot of volume like a
7:12lot and as you can see
7:1453,000 contracts are executed on this
7:17candle as you can see it's very balanced
7:19actually like not a significant amount
7:21of selling activity here was higher than
7:23the selling activity over here and as
7:25you may not know the last candle of the
7:28session is when all the day trading
7:30algorithm exit the market where a lot of
7:32hedge funds or long-term funds like ETFs
7:35are buying the underlying asset because
7:37they're required to do it by law so
7:39market makers or passive liquidity
7:41becomes extremely active there is a huge
7:43feast for market makers this is the best
7:45time to be a market maker because you
7:47can earn a lot of money from just bidas
7:49spread so this is not a stop run this is
7:51a huge absorption of contracts in every
7:53part and as we can see this huge
7:55liquidity grab doesn't fuel a move
7:58higher because we keep getting lower and
8:00lower and lower so what are we really
8:02talking about here because yes this
8:03pattern has an edge but calling it stop
8:06hunting or liquidity grabbing if you
8:08look at actual volume most of the times
8:10it doesn't make sense and it is more
8:12likely that a real stop run not stop
8:15hunting stop run why is it called stop
8:17run why was this move in the orderflow
8:19space not the ICT space the orderflow
8:21space was usually called a book sweeping
8:23or a stop run and not hunt there's no
8:26one hunting for stop losses we call it a
8:28stop run run because when we go below
8:31these lows and Below these lows in all
8:33of this area there might be some level
8:36of stop orders there's going to be stop
8:38orders resting below and stop orders are
8:41very specific they are sell order
8:44hitting the bid so all of the orders
8:46here in the purple part are aggressive
8:48selling order so if this magnitude of
8:50aggressive selling happens below a low
8:52we can deduce it's an actual stop run
8:55and it's called a run because the moves
8:57happens really fast and this happens
8:59because when there stops their triggered
9:02market so they are going to be executed
9:04at the best price where there is some
9:07buying liquidity available in the order
9:09book as we discussed in the previous
9:10video you should check them out by the
9:11way so in every one of these levels
9:12there were buying contracts buying
9:14contracts buying contracts and the sell
9:17stops that were here consumed and
9:19sweeped all the buying liquidity so stop
9:22order Swept Away book liquidity it was
9:26not stop being swept it was stop orders
9:28sweeping the book that's why it is
9:30called book sweeping so all this part of
9:32the book becomes basically empty and as
9:34you can see in this part of the candle
9:36the right side of the candle there's
9:38little to no trading activity in fact
9:40the Delta is way above 50% and there is
9:43a lot of volumes this this is an actual
9:45stop run all of the rest we have seen in
9:47the previous example really few of them
9:49were actual stop runs or actual
9:51liquidity grabs but again even here you
9:54would think that this move below here
9:56fueled the entire move up but what
9:58fueled this move up wasn't this few
10:01volume that was exchanged in the stop
10:04run do you really think that 1,000
10:05contracts is enough to fuel the next
10:07move or or the remaining hundreds and
10:09hundreds of thousands of contracts that
10:12were executed in this area actually
10:14fueled the next move and by the way it
10:17isn't the counterparty which is fueling
10:19the move you're simply getting a better
10:20feel but most of the contracts in this
10:23area were executed here this is the real
10:25area of Interest not this one so when we
10:27break Above This level then the there is
10:29a higher chance that we will get higher
10:31and take a look at what happened above
10:33here and as we can see there was there's
10:35very little volume above here but still
10:37this little liquidity grab with a couple
10:39hundred contracts have fueled all this
10:42billions and billions of dollars worth
10:44of contracts this was simply little stop
10:47run with a little failed auction some
10:49very little buying activity we start
10:51trending a little bit higher a little
10:53bit higher order flow start being
10:54bullish and then this move happened and
10:56this move is very interesting because
10:58we're breaking below these lows over
10:59here these lows over here these lows
11:01over here so a lot of sellings seems to
11:04be happening below here and as we go
11:06right below the low that we plotted you
11:08start seeing imbalances and actual
11:10liquidations but still there's a lot of
11:12buying on this candle this is 10% Delta
11:14this is not a lot and right before going
11:17below the low where an actual selling
11:20started happening here we have thousands
11:21and thousands of contracts been being
11:23both bought and sold then below these
11:25couple of lows a lot of selling pressure
11:27starts kicking in and once we go
11:29actually below the low there's not a lot
11:31of selling activity then finally we
11:33reach the final stage of the session
11:35where as I told you most of the volume
11:36is being traded and most of the volume
11:38is trading on this up candle not on this
11:40low candle but still in this part alone
11:42if we compare it to the rest of the
11:44session so this could have actually been
11:46liquidity grab or inducement or like in
11:49this case when we go below all of these
11:51lows at the beginning of the session
11:52there's a lot of selling pressure
11:54selling pressure and we start getting
11:56below here and there is a lot of volume
11:59going on down here all of the session is
12:01right here so this is an actual
12:03accumulation phase where a lot of buying
12:06and selling was being absorbed over here
12:08because the more time price spends below
12:11a low or below more lows the more
12:14liquidity they are grabbing all of the
12:16session is consolidating below those
12:19lows then it's an actual liquidity grab
12:21so the liquidity grab is not this but
12:24more something like this this was the
12:27liquidity grab so a whole phase of
12:29distribution or accumulation as wov
12:32called it which is by the way the basics
12:33of all ICT Concepts or all orderflow
12:36concept volume analysis Concepts it all
12:38comes from wov so it's not about an
12:40algorithm it's not something new this
12:42new trendy ICT thing is nothing new no
12:44one invented anything new it's been
12:46around for a 100 years all right now
12:48let's take an example right here after
12:51the latest fomc data we had a bunch of
12:53lows below here let's see how many
12:55contracts were executed there yeah not a
12:57lot of contracts so do you really think
12:59that from up here they moved hundreds of
13:02hundreds of thousands of contracts and
13:04billions of billions of dollars just to
13:06take a couple of stops here as you can
13:07see orderflow data shows us a different
13:10story we will keep going deeper into
13:12these Concepts in the next videos so
13:13subscribe to the channel now see you in
13:14the next one chia

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