I Almost Quit Day Trading Until I Found This — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:00After 4 years of learning how to trade,
2. 0:01I almost quit. I felt I had tried
3. 0:03everything, every strategy, joined every
4. 0:04Discord, watched every YouTube video on
5. 0:07how to trade, and I simply just wasn't
6. 0:09understanding it. And this is because my
7. 0:10ego wasn't allowing me to learn from
8. 0:12others. I simply wanted to just win on
9. 0:14my own, which naturally made my trading
10. 0:16journey 10 times harder than it actually
11. 0:18needed to be. That's pretty much when
12. 0:19trading felt hard, and after 4 years, I
13. 0:21almost gave up with no success. Well,
14. 0:23that was until I stumbled across a draw
15. 0:24on liquidity that gets hit 96%of the
16. 0:27time every single day. And I actually
17. 0:29built my entire trading process around
18. 0:31that specific draw on liquidity. And
19. 0:33that draw on liquidity is the first
20. 0:3515-minute candle of the New York Stock
21. 0:36Exchange from 9:30 to 9:45 a.m. Eastern
22. 0:39Standard Time. And honestly, this draw
23. 0:41on liquidity gets hit so often, it kind
24. 0:42of feels like a cheat code to know,
25. 0:43which has made trading my fair value gap
26. 0:44continuation strategy a whole lot easier
27. 0:46because I'm trading towards a draw on
28. 0:48liquidity that has a 96%hit rate every
29. 0:51single day. That's a 4%chance it does
30. 0:53not get hit on the day. And that's a
31. 0:54great odd, and that's honestly why I'm
32. 0:56actually in the position I am now. It's
33. 0:58because I have so much conviction and
34. 1:00confidence towards this draw on
35. 1:01liquidity. It's actually the baseline
36. 1:02foundation of my strategy. So now, with
37. 1:05all that being said, I don't want to
38. 1:06waste too much of your time, so let's
39. 1:07just get straight into the video. Now,
40. 1:08before we get into the explanations, I
41. 1:10just want to show you all my payouts
42. 1:11this month for the month of October in
43. 1:132026. October and November are my two
44. 1:16highest performing months in the entire
45. 1:17year, so this is where I get a little
46. 1:19bit more aggressive with my fair value
47. 1:20gap continuation model. But, as you can
48. 1:22see, payout after payout after payout
49. 1:26after payout after payout. And that is
50. 1:29essentially how I am finishing. I don't
51. 1:31even know how many, maybe 14, 15 payouts
52. 1:33this month so far. And well, it's a very
53. 1:35beautiful day here in the Gold Coast. A
54. 1:37bit cloudy, but nonetheless, let's get
55. 1:39straight into the breakdown. For those
56. 1:41that don't know, we are trading NQ
57. 1:42futures. And to find your opening range,
58. 1:44you're going to need to find the first
59. 1:4615-minute candle of the New York Stock
60. 1:48Exchange open. The New York Stock
61. 1:49Exchange opens at 9:30 a.m. and is
62. 1:51measured from 9:30 a.m. to 9:45 a.m.
63. 1:54Eastern Standard Time. That's New York
64. 1:56time. So, to mark your opening range
65. 1:58high and low, you need to wait for that
66. 1:59first close. Meaning, the 9:45 a.m.
67. 2:0515-minute candle must be open. And so,
68. 2:07then you can actually mark up your
69. 2:09opening range high or low. So, I'm going
70. 2:11to show you that an example right now.
71. 2:13I'm going to use my trend line tool and
72. 2:15I'm going to mark the lowest point,
73. 2:16which is going to be the wick, just up
74. 2:18until about 10:15 a.m. there, which,
75. 2:20right, is going to be our opening range
76. 2:22low. Then, I'm going to do the same
77. 2:23thing to that candle's high and measure
78. 2:25out to 10:15 a.m. as well. So, this is
79. 2:28actually what it looks like on the lower
80. 2:30time frame. I'm currently on the
81. 2:3130-second time frame right now, and this
82. 2:33is the price action we're actually
83. 2:34seeing. So, what you see from this
84. 2:36candle to where we're at now, this is
85. 2:39our opening range. This is our first
86. 2:4115-minute candle's price action on the
87. 2:4330-second time frame, and you can see
88. 2:45that both sides of the range are now set
89. 2:47and actually ready to target. So, this
90. 2:49is what we're going to wait for now.
91. 2:51We're going to wait for that 9:45 a.m.
92. 2:53new 15-minute candle to actually open to
93. 2:56then look for a potential for value gap
94. 2:58continuation opportunity towards one
95. 3:00side of the range. So, before we go and
96. 3:02look for any for value gap continuation
97. 3:03opportunities towards, well, the opening
98. 3:06range, you have to understand the
99. 3:07opening range just a little bit, so it
100. 3:09actually makes sense. The opening range
101. 3:11sets the high and the low for the a.m.
102. 3:13session. Essentially, it sets the high
103. 3:14and the low for the New York Stock
104. 3:16Exchange. It doesn't last very long, but
105. 3:18what this allows price to do is show its
106. 3:20different characteristics around these
107. 3:22levels. So, you might actually have, you
108. 3:24know, one characteristic where price is
109. 3:25simply breaks this opening range high,
110. 3:27then bounces off and continues higher.
111. 3:29You might have it where it breaks the
112. 3:31low and then continues lower. You might
113. 3:32also have where price looks like it
114. 3:34wants to break the opening range low,
115. 3:35but then plays to the other side of the
116. 3:37range. Vice versa, plays to the opening
117. 3:39range high, and then comes back down and
118. 3:41plays to the other side of the range.
119. 3:42But, either way, we hit one side of the
120. 3:44range, which is where my key importance
121. 3:46actually is. We are looking to target
122. 3:48that one side of the range before
123. 3:50anything else actually happens to where
124. 3:52manipulates up and then comes back down,
125. 3:54or it actually just goes straight
126. 3:55through and we have no opportunities.
127. 3:57Really, there's both opportunities on
128. 3:59both sides of the range. I I we could
129. 4:00either target the range or we could
130. 4:02actually trade on the standing that it's
131. 4:04a verified breakout. We can on the lower
132. 4:06time frame, we could trade with it
133. 4:08showing its hand in reversal to the
134. 4:09opposing side of the range. I typically
135. 4:11don't like to do that cuz it is a low
136. 4:13statistic to actually do that. It's
137. 4:15around about 16%right now to actually
138. 4:17prove that. Better to just try and
139. 4:19target towards one side of the range.
140. 4:21It's much easier. These are the current
141. 4:222026 statistics right now of the opening
142. 4:25range and I do have data that ranges
143. 4:27back to 2022, but this is the
144. 4:29percentages that's of going to be of
145. 4:31relevance for you in this year
146. 4:32particular in 2026. The percentages
147. 4:35don't really fluctuate all that much,
148. 4:36maybe by a mostly 5%, but not very much.
149. 4:40Um so, these are going to be of value to
150. 4:41you. So, of course, my mentioned 96%
151. 4:44chance for one side of the opening range
152. 4:46to be hit by 10:15 a.m. Eastern Standard
153. 4:48Time. Crazy statistic. 82%chance for one
154. 4:52side of the opening range to be hit
155. 4:53before 10:00 a.m. Eastern Standard Time.
156. 4:56We have a 16%chance for both sides of
157. 4:58the opening range to be hit before 4
158. 5:0010:15 a.m. Eastern Standard Time. And we
159. 5:02only have a 4%chance to not hit either
160. 5:05side of the opening range by 10:15 a.m.
161. 5:07Eastern Standard Time. Meaning that if
162. 5:09we get stuck on a day where it's only
163. 5:114%, we are basically in some sort of
164. 5:14statistical loss scenario there, which
165. 5:16is not something to be completely
166. 5:17affected by. It's simply to just carry
167. 5:19on and move on. It's very easy to kind
168. 5:22of determine, you know, what this day
169. 5:23would actually look like based on
170. 5:25conditions and market structure, overall
171. 5:27just order flow. But, we pretty much
172. 5:29always find ourselves on this one right
173. 5:31here, and which is obviously something
174. 5:33that you'd want to be on in comparison
175. 5:35to your 4%day. Playing on the known
176. 5:37statistics, trading fair value gap
177. 5:39continuation model actually becomes a
178. 5:41lot stronger in our favor. We get a lot
179. 5:42more conviction, a lot more confidence
180. 5:44targeting the specific opening range
181. 5:46high or low drawn liquidity when both
182. 5:48sides are available when we get
183. 5:50presented that fair value gap
184. 5:51continuation entry opportunity. So, what
185. 5:53we're going to do is we're going to grab
186. 5:55a vertical line to just measure out that
187. 5:569:45 a.m. price action. And what we're
188. 6:00looking for is we're looking for price
189. 6:01to essentially find us a fair value gap
190. 6:03continuation opportunity so that we can
191. 6:05target one side of the opening range.
192. 6:08Now, we are obviously just displaced
193. 6:10lower as you can see from the 9:30 and
194. 6:12then obviously to this low we've pushed
195. 6:14lower, we stopped, and then we pushed
196. 6:16higher, and we actually did near miss
197. 6:19this drawn liquidity. Now, something
198. 6:20that does help build conviction for
199. 6:21myself is a multi-stacked drawn
200. 6:24liquidity. Essentially, when I have one
201. 6:25price line measured up like this, you
202. 6:27can see that number right there,
203. 6:28$28,809.50. And on this price line right
204. 6:32there is two time-based draws on
205. 6:35liquidity that I focus on, which is
206. 6:36going to be the 9:30 candle high or low,
207. 6:38which is the first high and low of the
208. 6:40first 1-minute candle of the New York
209. 6:41Stock Exchange open, or the first two
210. 6:4330-second candles measuring the high and
211. 6:45the low of those, right? And in
212. 6:47combination with that, we also have the
213. 6:49opening range high. So, it is a
214. 6:50multi-stacked drawn liquidity, which is
215. 6:52leading me towards wanting to trade to
216. 6:54that side of the market. So, all I'm
217. 6:56going to do now is I'm going to play
218. 6:57price until we are able to find, well, a
219. 6:59simply a fair value gap continuation.
220. 7:02So, in this instance, I'm trying to try
221. 7:04and find a trade towards the upside
222. 7:06because of that multi-stacked. Now, a
223. 7:08lot of you guys are probably going to
224. 7:09wonder why I'm not going to take, well,
225. 7:11this fair value gap continuation
226. 7:12presented. We've come into the fair
227. 7:14value gap, and we've created a
228. 7:15displacement out. Now, the one thing
229. 7:17that I don't do is I do not take fair
230. 7:19value gap continuations that have body
231. 7:22closures beyond the 50%value of that
232. 7:25fair value gap. I find it's a very
233. 7:26low-quality delivery, and it can be very
234. 7:28slow and manipulative. So, what I do is
235. 7:31I simply ignore that. From there, I can
236. 7:33see price is now displacing towards the
237. 7:35upside. This is where I'm now
238. 7:36interested. We are then coming off this
239. 7:38low right here. And a lot of people are
240. 7:40looking at this fair value gap right
241. 7:41here and going, "Oh, we inversed up. We
242. 7:43also broke structure to the upside, but
243. 7:45then we closed back below." But in
244. 7:46reality, I'm looking at this inversion
245. 7:48which came first, and this inversion
246. 7:51actually is going to get held up,
247. 7:52hopefully, by our fair value gap now
248. 7:55just created here. So, I'm going to
249. 7:56measure this fair value gap out
250. 7:57properly, just like that. So, we have
251. 7:58this bearish one that we've just
252. 8:00inversed. We don't want to see that
253. 8:02bearish inversion actually get closed
254. 8:03below, which also would close below our
255. 8:05now fair value gap we're looking to see
256. 8:07it get respected. So, right now this
257. 8:09small for value gap just got tapped
258. 8:11into. Nobody closes in the gap, which is
259. 8:13really good. We did trade beyond it, but
260. 8:14we're not worried about that. We can
261. 8:16then grab our line tool right here,
262. 8:19measure out the previous candle highs,
263. 8:20so the highest price of that, and we're
264. 8:22simply looking for a body closure above
265. 8:23the level. We have a nice reaction point
266. 8:25from that low down here. We have a nice
267. 8:28inversion to the upside that has now
268. 8:29been respected by an opposing for value
269. 8:32gap, so this bullish for value gap is
270. 8:33opposing to that bearish inversion, We
271. 8:36can now take our entry on the closure
272. 8:38right here. Our stop loss will go at a
273. 8:40rounded five-point increment, so again,
274. 8:4320, 25, 20, 35, 40, 45, etc. which is
275. 8:47going to be 40 points, and we're going
276. 8:48to target that range. Now, you can see
277. 8:50that we're actually trading a negative
278. 8:51risk to reward, but we do have a very
279. 8:53very good conviction to go up to at
280. 8:55least that draw. Now, like I mentioned
281. 8:57before, the opening range can play the
282. 9:00manipulation down, which means we would
283. 9:02have to manage the trade at a break even
284. 9:04to cut risk, but we also did mention
285. 9:06that price could potentially play a
286. 9:09breakout through. And so, this is where
287. 9:10we can start looking for alternate draws
288. 9:12on liquidity to target. So, on this day
289. 9:15in particular, if we're looking at this
290. 9:16potential candlestick, you can see that
291. 9:18we actually have a 1-hour unfilled for
292. 9:20value gap right here. So, I'm going to
293. 9:22grab my for value gap tool, and I'm
294. 9:24going to measure that out right there.
295. 9:26So, now that we've found our 1-hour
296. 9:28unfilled for value gap, we're going to
297. 9:30simply go back down to our 30-second
298. 9:32time frame, and we're going to look to
299. 9:33try and trade towards now that level,
300. 9:35giving us a better risk to reward. So,
301. 9:38we're going to place this position. I'm
302. 9:39going to add in just simply one contract
303. 9:42here, so I'm going to put
304. 9:44buy limit like that. I'm going to put my
305. 9:46stop loss down at the low there at the
306. 9:48rounded increment, which is completely
307. 9:49data backed as well. All right, so we
308. 9:51have a data backed entry model with a
309. 9:53data backed stop loss
310. 9:55with a data backed draw on liquidity.
311. 9:57Really good. We're trading with the
312. 9:58current order flow right now. The last
313. 10:00distribution was towards the upside,
314. 10:02near missing that draw on liquidity.
315. 10:04Then we had a short and weak move to the
316. 10:05downside, and then we proved reaction
317. 10:07off a low right there, proving then
318. 10:09bullish order flow by simply inverting
319. 10:11bearish fair value gaps, disrespecting
320. 10:13them, and actually ended up respecting
321. 10:15bullish fair value gaps instead. So,
322. 10:17this is something that we want to see.
323. 10:18We want to see that order flow in our
324. 10:20favor. I'm in the trade, just bobbing my
325. 10:22head, letting price play. I'm not
326. 10:24worried about anything because I am
327. 10:26simply playing towards the statistics.
328. 10:29I'm playing with the statistics. I'm not
329. 10:30afraid. I'm not scared. I'm simply just
330. 10:32letting the trade do its thing. I don't
331. 10:34care that it can come down like that.
332. 10:36I'm not worried at all because
333. 10:37statistics are always going to be in my
334. 10:40favor. So, there we are. I literally
335. 10:42have not a single worry in the world
336. 10:44with this trade in particular. I leave
337. 10:45the stop loss. I do not manage the trade
338. 10:47out of fear, out of anything else. I let
339. 10:50the statistics play, and that's what you
340. 10:52have to do as a trader, knowing the
341. 10:54statistic. Now that we've hit that
342. 10:55level, we need to cut our risk. You can
343. 10:57take partials. You can break even, but
344. 10:59we need to be completely flat on this
345. 11:01trade holding towards that upside. What
346. 11:03you can then see price then hit our
347. 11:04alley fair value gap, and that is us
348. 11:07done for the trade. I call this exact
349. 11:09same trade out on my live stream. I go
350. 11:11live every day for the New York Stock
351. 11:13Exchange open trading with this
352. 11:14particular play as well every Monday to
353. 11:17Friday. So, if you want to check those
354. 11:18out, you can obviously join the link
355. 11:19below. Otherwise, I have free streams
356. 11:21every Monday as well, so you can join in
357. 11:23and see how we do it there. Cuz now
358. 11:24you're tasked with actually looking at
359. 11:26this in real time for your next few New
360. 11:28York AM sessions, but actually going out
361. 11:30and collecting data on this yourself,
362. 11:32looking and marking up the opening range
363. 11:34high and low on a backtesting software,
364. 11:37and trading for that high gap
365. 11:38continuation towards these levels and
366. 11:40any potential levels above and below the
367. 11:42opening range high as all low as well.
368. 11:44This is something that I actually built
369. 11:46my entire process around. This is the
370. 11:48baseline, the core foundation to my fair
371. 11:50value gap continuation. It's how I'm
372. 11:52able to trade a 45-minute window. It's
373. 11:54how I'm able to stay so consistent and
374. 11:56receive as many payouts as I do. It's a
375. 11:58simple fallback if someone is trading
376. 12:01fair value gap continuation and learned
377. 12:03this model off YouTube or you're inside
378. 12:05the premium group, a lot of people can
379. 12:07potentially struggle because of all the
380. 12:09drawls and liquidity. I don't set a bias
381. 12:11on the day. I simply watch price action,
382. 12:13read order flow, and trade with who's in
383. 12:15control. But, if we have an opening
384. 12:18range high or low with confirmed order
385. 12:20flow towards that range, it almost
386. 12:22becomes like a no-brainer. It's
387. 12:23essentially a cheat code that it's so
388. 12:25simple that my dog could actually come
389. 12:27up here and actually start trading
390. 12:28towards this particular level. It has a
391. 12:30high hit rate, which builds us
392. 12:32conviction and gives us confidence in
393. 12:34our trades every single time. We can let
394. 12:36the trades breathe. We can let the
395. 12:38trades play out, and we're either on a
396. 12:40statistical advantage or we're going to
397. 12:42accept a statistical loss. So, with that
398. 12:43being said, I hope you enjoyed today's
399. 12:45video. If you found any value, like,
400. 12:47subscribe if you're not so you can see
401. 12:48more of these videos so that you can
402. 12:50actually trade for the eye gap
403. 12:51continuation better every single time
404. 12:54you watch a new video of mine here on
405. 12:55YouTube. Other than that, I will see you
406. 12:58guys in the next video.