How to Solve the Climate Crisis | Johan Rockström on Planetary Boundaries & the Path Forward — Transcript
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- 0:00In the mid-1950s, we humans shift from
- 0:02being this small world on a big planet
- 0:04to now being a big world on a small
- 0:06planet. We've simply filled up the whole
- 0:08space. When you've reached that
- 0:09saturation point, the old economic
- 0:11paradigm doesn't work anymore. We've
- 0:12come to the end of the road of this idea
- 0:15that you can exploit for free and then
- 0:17waste without any [music] consequences.
- 0:19>> Yeah.
- 0:19>> Actually, it's quite remarkable despite
- 0:21having breached seven of the nine
- 0:22boundaries, despite having this climate
- 0:24crisis, the scientific conclusion is
- 0:27that the planet is still dominated by
- 0:29dampening feedbacks, which means that
- 0:31it's not too late to turn this around.
- 0:32We can, as far as science shows today,
- 0:34definitely come back to a manageable
- 0:37future where much of nature can
- 0:39regenerate if we just release the
- 0:40pressure for that accelerator. But, the
- 0:42time is running out.
- 0:47>> [music]
- 0:49>> When you get the chance to interview one
- 0:50of the world's greatest climate
- 0:51scientists, you do it. But, I will
- 0:54admit, I was a bit worried about this
- 0:55one because my guest, Johan Rockström,
- 0:57has been sounding the alarm about the
- 0:59climate crisis for decades. In fact, he
- 1:01helped create the framework that many of
- 1:03my other guests have built their work on
- 1:04top of. We'll discuss it in this
- 1:06episode, but the reason I was worried
- 1:08about this conversation is that, as far
- 1:09as I can tell, the fight against the
- 1:11climate crisis isn't going so well. So,
- 1:13I thought this conversation might be a
- 1:15bit depressing. Well, it turns out I was
- 1:17wrong. As you'll hear, Rockström
- 1:19believes there is a clear path forward
- 1:21to solving the world's biggest
- 1:22ecological problems, from climate change
- 1:24to biodiversity loss. In fact, he's more
- 1:26optimistic now than he was a few years
- 1:28ago. In this discussion, we'll talk
- 1:30about why. And in the meantime, we'll
- 1:31get into climate science, the global
- 1:33economy, and the Earth system as a
- 1:35whole. All right, let's get into it.
- 1:37Johan, thank you so much for being with
- 1:38me today.
- 1:39>> Thanks for inviting me.
- 1:40>> Well, no one's talking about climate
- 1:41right now, and I thought it would be
- 1:43good to have a little conversation with
- 1:44you about what's happening in the Earth
- 1:47system and why no one's talking about
- 1:50it. My theory is that people are
- 1:54too worried about other stuff,
- 1:56shorter-term problems, to speak about
- 1:59climate, which is a is a longer-term
- 2:01issue. Is that your assessment as well,
- 2:04or what do you think is happening?
- 2:05>> Well, I would take it slightly
- 2:07differently. I mean, it for once, I
- 2:09think you're slightly biased coming from
- 2:10California. Coming to Europe, I would
- 2:13argue that climate is not entirely off
- 2:16off the stage, but I would also say that
- 2:18um it's not that climate is no longer in
- 2:21focus, it's that we are rapidly seeing a
- 2:24change in narrative, which is actually,
- 2:26in my conclusion,
- 2:27quite a good development, and is
- 2:29something that we scientifically have
- 2:30been arguing for a long time, namely
- 2:33that the climate crisis, that
- 2:35scientifically is well established, is
- 2:38not an environmental challenge, is not a
- 2:40moral question only,
- 2:43it's a question of security, it's a
- 2:44question of resilience, it's a question
- 2:46of
- 2:47the prosperity of tomorrow, and it's a
- 2:49question of equity.
- 2:51And um
- 2:52with uh all the geopolitical instability
- 2:54in the world, and all the populism and
- 2:56nationalism, and headwinds, and also a
- 2:59revival of denialism,
- 3:01we see a shift in how we are addressing
- 3:05the climate crisis, more articulated in
- 3:08terms of security and resilience. So, I
- 3:10don't think it's disappeared, it's just
- 3:11that it's changed features. It's kind of
- 3:14a chameleon behavior, and I think that
- 3:16is a maturity of the topic.
- 3:18>> Okay, it's good to hear you say that,
- 3:19and I think you're right. I am coming
- 3:21from a US perspective, where under the
- 3:23Trump administration, the climate issue
- 3:25has been marginalized. But, it's good to
- 3:27hear that that hasn't happened in
- 3:29Europe.
- 3:29>> It has not, and and uh to be honest, we
- 3:33um we feel with you uh on this side of
- 3:35the Atlantic.
- 3:36>> Good. Thank you for the solidarity.
- 3:38>> [laughter]
- 3:38>> Yes, it's it's rough over there. Well,
- 3:41so tell me what you mean about
- 3:42resilience and national security. Are
- 3:43you saying that
- 3:44countries are starting to view climate
- 3:47as a matter of protecting their economy,
- 3:51protecting their quality of life of
- 3:53their citizenry?
- 3:54>> Definitely. I mean, there are there are
- 3:55three
- 3:56>> [clears throat]
- 3:57>> pieces of evidence that are coming
- 3:59together right as we speak. I mean, one
- 4:01is
- 4:02not only that the science on climate
- 4:06risks is well established. We are
- 4:09unfortunately also seeing overwhelming
- 4:12evidence, which I think is sinking in
- 4:14also among citizens in general and
- 4:16policy makers, business leaders across
- 4:19across the world, actually. That is
- 4:21hitting faster, harder, and that the
- 4:25rate of warming is increasing
- 4:28faster than we had expected. So, the
- 4:30last 10 years we see that we're going um
- 4:34you know, shifting from one rate of
- 4:38warming, which is the one that has taken
- 4:40us to what we call the climate crisis,
- 4:42to an even faster rate of warming. We're
- 4:44going to inevitably go into overshoot
- 4:47and crashing through 1.5° C probably
- 4:49within the next few years. We're heading
- 4:51into a new
- 4:53most likely a really strong El Niño,
- 4:55probably already end of this year. We
- 4:57see coral reef systems collapsing. We
- 4:59see accelerated rate of melting of
- 5:01glaciers. We see
- 5:03all forms of droughts and heat waves and
- 5:06fires increasing not only in frequency,
- 5:08but also in amplitude. So, that is is
- 5:10one exponential in terms of the risk.
- 5:13The second one is that we have now
- 5:16established evidence that across the
- 5:18entire world it's simply cheaper and
- 5:20smarter to invest in renewable energy
- 5:24than particularly power
- 5:26the the rapidly developing
- 5:27electrification of our economies
- 5:30with with coal. It doesn't make sense
- 5:32anymore to use coal, not even oil and
- 5:34gas to generate electricity, and we're
- 5:37moving in in a in a very fast pace
- 5:40towards a modern, digital, electrified
- 5:43economy. So, that's the next second
- 5:45exponential. And the third one is of
- 5:47course what happened the next last few
- 5:49months with regards to the exponential
- 5:52rise in oil and gas prices. And when you
- 5:53put that all together, the exponential
- 5:56of the energy crisis, the exponential of
- 5:58opportunity on renewable energy, and the
- 6:00exponential or rapidly rise in risk, put
- 6:03that all together and the climate crisis
- 6:06turns rapidly into security agenda. It
- 6:08becomes a pathway towards independence.
- 6:11Turns a pathway into being a much more
- 6:14stable in how you handle your nations.
- 6:17And remember that 75% of citizens in the
- 6:20world are consumers of oil and gas.
- 6:23They're not suppliers. So, it doesn't
- 6:25make sense to sit in the hands of very
- 6:27few suppliers of a very volatile,
- 6:30inefficient energy source, which
- 6:32moreover pollutes and risks the
- 6:35instability of the entire planet. So,
- 6:37you don't have to understand all the ins
- 6:39and outs of the science to come to the
- 6:41conclusion that hmm, this doesn't make
- 6:43sense anymore.
- 6:44>> Yeah. Well, let's talk about the science
- 6:46a little bit because you are a renowned
- 6:48climate scientist and you came up with a
- 6:50framework called the planetary
- 6:52boundaries, which has influenced a lot
- 6:53of the guests that I've interviewed on
- 6:54this podcast. It's It's the outside of
- 6:57the donut for Kate Raworth's donut
- 6:58economic system. It's something that has
- 7:00inspired Jason Hickel's work in terms of
- 7:02degrowth and sort of managing the
- 7:04transition to a more sustainable
- 7:07economy.
- 7:08And so, can you give me a brief overview
- 7:10of what the planetary boundaries are and
- 7:13how it can help us understand the Earth
- 7:16system we live in?
- 7:17>> The planetary boundary science, which is
- 7:18now, you know,
- 7:2015 years of scientific advancements
- 7:23under its belt, originates from from
- 7:26three, I would argue, extraordinary
- 7:28advancements in our understanding of how
- 7:31the planet functions. And the first one
- 7:34is that we understand today that the
- 7:35planet is is a biogeochemically
- 7:39complex, self-regulating system that has
- 7:42interactions and feedbacks, which means
- 7:44that in a healthy state, in a stable
- 7:46state, it remains in an equilibrium
- 7:49thanks to its feedbacks that can dampen
- 7:53and buffer stress. For example, stress
- 7:55from It can be a volcanic eruption. It
- 7:58can be earthquake. It can be solar
- 8:00radiation shifts, but it can also be
- 8:02fossil fuel burning.
- 8:03But if you push these systems too far,
- 8:06you can irreversibly push it to start
- 8:10drifting away from that equilibrium
- 8:11state.
- 8:13And the second line of science is that
- 8:14we today know
- 8:16that the past 12,000 years, since we
- 8:18left the last ice age, is an
- 8:19extraordinarily stable equilibrium state
- 8:22of the Earth system, a warm interglacial
- 8:24called the Holocene. And the Holocene is
- 8:26in itself the planet
- 8:29we depend on, the planet we have as the
- 8:31foundation for everything we love, but
- 8:33also everything we uh develop in our
- 8:36economies. But we have that as our as
- 8:38our measuring point of the desired
- 8:40planet. And the third
- 8:43and final set of scientific evidence is
- 8:45that we today understand that there are
- 8:47tipping point systems, a number of large
- 8:50biophysical systems that keep them on
- 8:52the on the safe side of the fence, and
- 8:55they will dampen and help keep the
- 8:57planet in a stable Holocene equilibrium.
- 9:00But if you push them too far, they will
- 9:02irreversibly self-amplify warming and
- 9:05move away from that state and undermine
- 9:07therefore life support. With these
- 9:09areas of science advancing, so how the
- 9:13planet operates,
- 9:15the Holocene as a reference point, and
- 9:17the tipping points being a real
- 9:19hardwired parts of the planet,
- 9:22the question arose, what are then the
- 9:25Earth system processes that can keep the
- 9:26planet in a stable state?
- 9:28And once we map those nine planetary
- 9:31boundary processes that regulates the
- 9:34the state of the planet,
- 9:36we then asked the question, can we
- 9:37quantify safe boundary levels
- 9:40that if we stay within them, we have a
- 9:42chance of having a high likelihood of
- 9:45keeping the planet
- 9:46in a life-supporting, resilient, and
- 9:48stable state. But go beyond that that
- 9:51boundary, we risk
- 9:53undermining the stability of the system
- 9:56that can start causing feedbacks that
- 9:59makes it less and less likely that we
- 10:01can maintain good livelihoods for
- 10:05species and humans on planet Earth.
- 10:07Right. And there you have the planetary
- 10:08boundary framework, and we've identified
- 10:10nine planetary boundary systems, and
- 10:12we've been able to quantify all these
- 10:14nine
- 10:15using uh, you know, 13 control
- 10:17variables. So, several boundaries have
- 10:19several indicators, and and these give
- 10:22us a quantification
- 10:24of a safe operating space that um,
- 10:28basically provides
- 10:30the the guidance for world development
- 10:33within a stable and resilient Earth
- 10:35system.
- 10:36>> So, it's almost like the quantifying the
- 10:39guardrails on how to maintain an
- 10:42ecosystem that we can thrive in.
- 10:44>> Correct. And why do we need that? So,
- 10:46we've been um, operating what we can
- 10:49call
- 10:50uh, the modern industrialized
- 10:54world
- 10:55for soon 200 years. And in the
- 10:57beginning, when we developed the
- 11:00macroeconomic theories, you know, from
- 11:02Adam Smith all the way to the uh,
- 11:05Keynesian
- 11:06macroeconomic
- 11:08market economy thinking,
- 11:11we could still in the beginning
- 11:14defend our unsustainable behavior by
- 11:16being a relatively small world economy
- 11:19on a very large planet.
- 11:21>> Mhm.
- 11:21>> So, we had, you know, ample
- 11:22biodiversity, ample forest, ample
- 11:25atmosphere,
- 11:27big oceans that we could exploit fish
- 11:29from without having any invoices sent
- 11:32back from the planet or any
- 11:34risks of causing irreversible damage to
- 11:37the planet.
- 11:38But then we enter in the mid-1950s what
- 11:41is now scientifically defined as the
- 11:42Great Acceleration,
- 11:44which brings us into the Anthropocene,
- 11:45which is that we humans shift from being
- 11:48this relatively small world on a big
- 11:50planet to now being a big world on a
- 11:52small planet. We've simply filled up the
- 11:54whole space. We've reached a saturation
- 11:56point and start hitting the ceiling of
- 11:58the hardwired processes that regulates
- 12:01the versability of the system. So, of
- 12:03course, when you've reached that
- 12:04saturation point, the old economic
- 12:06paradigm doesn't work anymore.
- 12:07>> Yeah.
- 12:07>> You cannot just exploit for free and
- 12:10waste without any repercussions. And
- 12:13that's why quantifying the guardrails,
- 12:17the dashboard for a world to thrive
- 12:21within a stable planet
- 12:23may not have been necessary, you know,
- 12:25in the 16th or 17th century when kind of
- 12:27many of the basic ideas of what we still
- 12:30operate under when it comes to our
- 12:31economic paradigm. But today, it doesn't
- 12:34work anymore. We've come to the end of
- 12:36the road of this idea that you can
- 12:38exploit for free,
- 12:40create value for human
- 12:43well-being, and then waste without any
- 12:45consequences. That era is over. Now we
- 12:47have to operate within the safe space.
- 12:49And the Planetary Science is the first
- 12:51paradigm
- 12:53to to develop that safe space, which is
- 12:55then a a positive way of of creating
- 13:00constraints, indeed, but giving us the
- 13:02budgets that we have to respect.
- 13:03>> Right.
- 13:05So, this is sort of a framework in which
- 13:07to think about a new economic operating
- 13:09system, where it's not so much about
- 13:12extraction and infinite uh pollution and
- 13:16and growth at all costs, but a an
- 13:19economy that actually sort of
- 13:22has feedback loops itself and is more
- 13:24circular. Mhm. Um which is something
- 13:26we've talked about a lot on this show,
- 13:27so it's great to hear like the
- 13:29scientific framework for a lot of the
- 13:32the economic theory we've been
- 13:33discussing. So, thanks for that. Before
- 13:35we move on to like what should we
- 13:37actually do and what are some of the
- 13:38solutions to this problem, let's talk a
- 13:41little bit about where we're at and then
- 13:42what tipping points are. You said there
- 13:44are nine planetary boundaries and the
- 13:45last I checked we've breached seven of
- 13:47them. Is that the current state of
- 13:49things?
- 13:50>> Yeah, this is the the latest the October
- 13:522025 assessment. We today update the
- 13:56planet about the science every year
- 13:57actually in what we call the planetary
- 14:00health check and in the latest
- 14:01assessment, yes, we conclude
- 14:03unfortunately that
- 14:05not only are the the six planetary
- 14:08boundaries that were breached in the
- 14:09peer-reviewed scientific paper published
- 14:11in 2025, they continue moving in the
- 14:14wrong direction.
- 14:15The seventh boundary is the ocean
- 14:17acidification boundary that has just
- 14:19crossed the safe boundary level. So,
- 14:21this is a a really deep concern that the
- 14:24conclusion is that we have a planetary
- 14:27crisis on our watch and and
- 14:31one way of articulating this is that
- 14:33we're doing it a double mistake and
- 14:35taking a big risk that we're breaching
- 14:38the climate boundary, one of the nine,
- 14:40which means that we're loading
- 14:42greenhouse gases causing
- 14:45this energy imbalance on planet Earth
- 14:47and we're injecting massive heat into
- 14:50the system and at the same time we're
- 14:53undermining what I call the biosphere
- 14:55boundary. So, among these nine
- 14:57boundaries you have biodiversity,
- 15:00overconsumption of fresh water,
- 15:02changes in the configuration of large
- 15:04biomes, the land use change boundary,
- 15:06which is predominantly about how much
- 15:10deforestation do we have in tropical
- 15:11rainforest and temperate forest and
- 15:13boreal forest. We're overloading with
- 15:15nitrogen and phosphorus, which is the
- 15:17biogeochemical boundary, overconsumption
- 15:20of fresh water as I said, overloading of
- 15:22chemicals, and finally then
- 15:24acidifying the ocean.
- 15:26And this is,
- 15:27you know, remarkable that we're allowing
- 15:29ourselves to not only add more
- 15:31greenhouse gases causing greenhouse gas
- 15:34emissions and global warming,
- 15:36we're also undermining the resilience of
- 15:38the Earth system by breaching the nature
- 15:41boundaries. And the nature boundaries
- 15:42are so fundamental because a healthy
- 15:44planet
- 15:46with the ability
- 15:48to buffer
- 15:49provides and has been providing since we
- 15:52started burning fossil fuels just a
- 15:54remarkable free service to humanity by
- 15:56removing 90% heat in the ocean. So, can
- 16:00you imagine 90% of the heat
- 16:02injected by our fossil fuel burning is
- 16:04not in the atmosphere causing the
- 16:05temperature rise that has created all
- 16:07the droughts and the floods and the
- 16:08fires and the real human reinforced
- 16:10storms, it's in the ocean. It's being
- 16:12buffered in this enormous thermostat.
- 16:14>> It's absorbed.
- 16:15>> And it's absorbed, and but it's not it's
- 16:17not disappearing, it's there. It's
- 16:18stored in the ocean, which
- 16:20um leads to stronger storms, leads to I
- 16:23mean hurricanes and and typhoons. It
- 16:25leads to um
- 16:27um more frequent and and and more severe
- 16:30El Niño events. So, it's starting to
- 16:32show signs of of
- 16:35not being entirely stored away, but can
- 16:38actually hit us back. But, the second
- 16:40buffering uh service from the
- 16:43healthy boundaries is that 50% of the
- 16:45carbon dioxide that we emit from fossil
- 16:47fuel burning is absorbed in nature on
- 16:50land and in the ocean.
- 16:52And this can only [snorts] be maintained
- 16:55if we stay within the safe planetary
- 16:57boundaries. So, we see, for example, now
- 17:00that the deforestation in the Amazon
- 17:02rainforest has gone so far that the
- 17:05Brazilian part of the Amazon basin has
- 17:08tipped over from no longer being a
- 17:09carbon sink, it's a net carbon source.
- 17:12And we see the similar signs in
- 17:14temperate forests in Canada, in the
- 17:16Nordic region, and in boreal forests.
- 17:19So, here you have a situation where it
- 17:21boils down to our responsibility to keep
- 17:24the resilience of the planet intact, and
- 17:26that's what the planetary boundaries try
- 17:27to protect, the ability of the planet to
- 17:30buffer stress, to avoid that we cross
- 17:33too many thresholds that could lead to a
- 17:36drift away from stable conditions. We're
- 17:39not there yet. Actually, it's quite
- 17:40remarkable, despite having breached
- 17:42seven of the nine boundaries,
- 17:44despite having this climate crisis, the
- 17:47scientific conclusion in this latest
- 17:49planetary boundary health check is that
- 17:51the planet is still, despite all these
- 17:54unsustainable pressures, dominated by
- 17:57dampening feedbacks, which means that
- 17:58it's not too late to turn this around.
- 18:00But, the time is running out.
- 18:02>> That's good to hear that it's not too
- 18:04late. I think a lot of people have lost
- 18:06hope and feel like it's too late cuz of
- 18:07the alarmism of the climate movement, to
- 18:11be honest. I mean, of which I consider
- 18:13myself a part, but sometimes it can feel
- 18:16like we're
- 18:17talking about a world that's basically
- 18:19over, and I I don't think that's the
- 18:21right message to share
- 18:23to get people inspired about being able
- 18:25to turn the ship around and actually get
- 18:27back into safe a safe space for for life
- 18:30to thrive. So,
- 18:31>> No, but I agree with you, and and this
- 18:32is why I think that, you know, while the
- 18:35planetary boundaries science is a kind
- 18:37of a diagnostic tool, and it sends, of
- 18:39course, a very dire message,
- 18:42but I would also argue it's one of the
- 18:43most hopeful frameworks we have. Because
- 18:45isn't it fantastic that we now have the
- 18:47safe boundaries? We we have the playing
- 18:49field where we can be successful, and we
- 18:51can have a prosperous, equitable,
- 18:54responsible future, and it isn't too
- 18:56late to return back. We can, as far as
- 18:58science shows today, definitely come
- 19:00back to a manageable future where much
- 19:03of nature can regenerate if we just
- 19:06release the pressure for that
- 19:07accelerator.
- 19:08>> Yeah. And, like I said, we're about to
- 19:10get into that. I I I do want to make one
- 19:12comment about what you just mentioned on
- 19:13the boundaries that I appreciate is that
- 19:15there's a focus on
- 19:17eight other boundaries, not just global
- 19:20temperature, right? I think that the
- 19:21climate discussion often fixates so much
- 19:24on global warming, and that might be a
- 19:26residual effect of everyone hearing
- 19:28about global warming from Al Gore with
- 19:30the the inconvenient truth, and then
- 19:32that kind of being the their frame of
- 19:34reference for
- 19:35the climate crisis. But, what I
- 19:37appreciate about your work is that the
- 19:39it actually shines a light on the eight
- 19:40other boundaries that we have, and
- 19:43biodiversity being one that's very near
- 19:44and dear to my heart that often gets
- 19:46ignored, but is so important. And it
- 19:48actually there's feedback between
- 19:49biodiversity and temperature. And so, I
- 19:51think that's really helpful because it
- 19:52does feel like sometimes we fixate too
- 19:54much on just temperature.
- 19:55>> Absolutely. I totally agree. And it just
- 19:57so happens that today when we meet here,
- 20:00we published a paper in nature showing
- 20:03that
- 20:04we can still
- 20:06protect the Amazon rainforest, planet
- 20:09Earth's richest ecosystem on land,
- 20:12by far in terms of biodiversity, but
- 20:15also in terms of its fantastic role in
- 20:18generating 40% of its own rainfall and
- 20:21providing fresh water supply across the
- 20:23entire continent, and being a massive
- 20:26stock of carbon. So, it's an interest
- 20:28for all of us in the world to keep a
- 20:31healthy, thriving Amazon rainforest. And
- 20:34we show in a in a nature research
- 20:36article today
- 20:37that unfortunately,
- 20:39if we continue losing biodiversity at
- 20:42the pace of today and continue cutting
- 20:44down the forest, we've lost 17% of the
- 20:47cover of the Amazon forest. 17.
- 20:50>> Okay.
- 20:50>> And if we exceed 25% and we're moving in
- 20:53that direction,
- 20:54then the temperature level, the global
- 20:56warming level at which the system is at
- 20:59risk of crossing a tipping point where
- 21:01it would irreversibly become a degraded
- 21:03bush savanna,
- 21:05goes down from if you look only at
- 21:07climate, the risk level is put somewhere
- 21:10between 3 and 4° C of warming, so low
- 21:13risk, but if you factor in loss of
- 21:14biodiversity, loss of canopy cover, and
- 21:18and changes in hydrology, so three
- 21:19additional planetary boundaries, the
- 21:21temperature risk goes down to somewhere
- 21:23between 1 and 2° C.
- 21:25So, the planetary boundaries
- 21:27are fundamental to understand the
- 21:29ability of these precious system that we
- 21:32all depend on for the stability of our
- 21:34economies and the planet to stay stable.
- 21:37So, to express it another way, even if
- 21:39we would stop burning fossil fuels
- 21:42entirely tomorrow morning, we would
- 21:44still breach the 1.5° C limit if we
- 21:48continue losing
- 21:50biodiversity, over consuming fresh
- 21:52water, overloading nitrogen phosphorus,
- 21:54changing land systems, changing the
- 21:56ocean, because those feedbacks would
- 21:59themselves amplify the warming. So, we
- 22:01we have no choice. We have to become
- 22:03stewards of the planet. I mean, you
- 22:06could argue that for moral reasons we
- 22:07should do it, but even if you focus only
- 22:10on your security and your economy, you
- 22:12want to go down a sustainable route to
- 22:15be successful. And and and I would even
- 22:18to me, that is the winning path today.
- 22:20>> Yeah. You mentioned tipping points. Can
- 22:22you explain what what a tipping point is
- 22:23because it sounds like there's a certain
- 22:25amount of biodiversity loss, canopy
- 22:27cover loss, temperature change that
- 22:29would cause the Amazon rainforest to
- 22:31basically not be a rainforest anymore?
- 22:33>> Correct. Yeah, so tipping points is the
- 22:36understanding today that we have a large
- 22:39number of of large biophysical systems
- 22:42on Earth like the Amazon rainforest,
- 22:44like the Greenland ice sheet, like the
- 22:46permafrost systems
- 22:48that have multiple stable states
- 22:50and they're separated by a threshold.
- 22:54And it just so happens that over the
- 22:57past 12,000 years, all these systems
- 22:59have landed and being configured in a
- 23:02state that we depend on we can call that
- 23:05the healthy state, the state we need.
- 23:07So, rainforest is one for example.
- 23:09And they stay in this stable state
- 23:11because they're dominated by a set of
- 23:13feedbacks that makes them
- 23:15remain [clears throat] in this stable
- 23:16state. And the feedback for the Amazon
- 23:18rainforest is this ability to generate
- 23:2140% of its own rainfall. And if you push
- 23:25these systems too far, they will cross a
- 23:28threshold. That's what we call the
- 23:29tipping point. And the moment they cross
- 23:31a threshold, the the feedback that keeps
- 23:34them in a rainforest state
- 23:36turns off. And instead, you go from
- 23:38self-moistening therefore to
- 23:40self-drying. And this is what
- 23:42irreversibly pushes this system to
- 23:44become a degraded savanna system.
- 23:46Perhaps even more pedagogic is is is ice
- 23:49sheets. The Greenland ice sheet
- 23:51is in an equilibrium state that is, you
- 23:55know,
- 23:56where it lands after we left the last
- 23:58ice age. It reaches this equilibrium
- 24:00because it is 3 km high. And anyone
- 24:04who's walked up a mountain knows that
- 24:06the higher up you walk, the colder it
- 24:07is. So, it's really cold up there.
- 24:10And also it's a white surface. And a
- 24:12white surface reflects 90% of incoming
- 24:16heat back to space. So, it's a cooling
- 24:19system. When this system starts melting,
- 24:22the surface gets darker because liquid
- 24:24water is darker than the ice. And it
- 24:26gets lower and lower in altitude. So, at
- 24:30a at a very specific point, it crosses a
- 24:33threshold where it goes from being net
- 24:36cooling to becoming net warming. And
- 24:39that's the tipping point. And at that
- 24:41point, it's like pressing an on button.
- 24:43The system
- 24:45cannot be turned back. It's it's an
- 24:47irreversible point where it will simply
- 24:49self-amplify
- 24:51the melting journey, whatever you do.
- 24:54And this is the tipping point. Yeah. And
- 24:56it's important to recognize that tipping
- 24:57points is when you press essentially an
- 25:00on button and you commit yourself to a
- 25:03state shift. An a rainforest becomes a
- 25:06savanna, an ice sheet becomes a liquid
- 25:08surface.
- 25:10The overturning of heat in the North
- 25:12Atlantic is switched on or off
- 25:14basically. And it may take um
- 25:17the Greenland ice sheet, which
- 25:18represents 6 to 7 m sea level rise, it
- 25:21would be a catastrophe if we did press
- 25:23that on button,
- 25:25but it may take 1,000 years for it to
- 25:26completely melt, but it would be
- 25:28irreversible. So, we would commit
- 25:30ourselves very soon, but it could take a
- 25:32long time it will take a long time
- 25:34before it's
- 25:35the full impact is is felt.
- 25:37But my conclusion is
- 25:39that what matters is the commitment
- 25:41time. That's what our responsibility is.
- 25:43And our economic system cannot deal with
- 25:46impacts that hit 100 years in the future
- 25:49or 1,000 years in the future, but what
- 25:51matters is when do I press this on
- 25:53button
- 25:54>> Yeah.
- 25:54>> to to cause a situation where we hand
- 25:56over to
- 25:57>> [clears throat]
- 25:58>> our children and all future generations
- 26:00a less and less livable planet.
- 26:01>> Right.
- 26:02>> That's what tipping points really
- 26:03represents. And we've today mapped 16 of
- 26:06these so-called climate tipping element
- 26:08systems. These are the large tipping
- 26:10point systems that we scientifically
- 26:12today know contribute to regulate the
- 26:14climate stability and that they have
- 26:16multiple stable states. And the Amazon
- 26:18rainforest is one of them. The Greenland
- 26:20ice sheet is another one of them. The
- 26:22ocean circulation system in the North
- 26:23Atlantic, the AMOC, is the third one.
- 26:26>> So, these are the big biophysical
- 26:27systems that that can, if we push them
- 26:30too far, can tip over,
- 26:32but that they help us and actually
- 26:35buffer and and cool down the system when
- 26:38they are in the state that we depend on
- 26:41and that happens to be the state that
- 26:42they've been in since we left the last
- 26:44ice age.
- 26:44>> Got it.
- 26:45>> And now we're pushing ourselves and what
- 26:47I what I should end by saying is that
- 26:50among these 16 that we've mapped, one of
- 26:53them
- 26:54is concluded to be essentially at the
- 26:57tipping point today, and those are the
- 26:58tropical coral reef systems. So, this is
- 27:01very likely victim number one.
- 27:03>> Mhm.
- 27:04>> And these are key [snorts] regulators of
- 27:07the biology and the health in the ocean.
- 27:11And they are livelihoods we know of
- 27:14probably over 400 million people today.
- 27:16So, these are this is a really big
- 27:18system.
- 27:19And then, the second in the line,
- 27:22there's a whole set of of tipping
- 27:25elements system that are scientifically
- 27:27now shown to be at risk if we when we
- 27:30exceed 1.5° C of global mean surface
- 27:33temperature rise, and the Amazon
- 27:35rainforest is among those. But, we also
- 27:37have the Greenland ice sheet there, the
- 27:39West Antarctic ice sheet, abrupt thawing
- 27:41of permafrost. So, big systems that that
- 27:45shows scientifically
- 27:47that we have everything to gain from
- 27:49moving away from that danger. But, we
- 27:51use this science on tipping points to
- 27:54quantify the boundaries. So, the
- 27:55planetary boundaries is an Earth system
- 27:58science grounded methodology of setting
- 28:02the guardrails to avoid that we cause
- 28:05these kind of
- 28:07many times irreversible damage to to the
- 28:10life support systems.
- 28:12>> So,
- 28:13I can hear some people, especially back
- 28:15in my country, who are a little bit
- 28:16misinformed on this topic,
- 28:18saying,
- 28:20"Okay, the perceived risks of of the
- 28:23climate crisis are overblown. That
- 28:25humans can adapt, and in some places,
- 28:28uh a warmer climate is actually going to
- 28:30be a good thing." What What are they
- 28:31missing? Are they missing this this
- 28:33tipping point sort of understanding that
- 28:36it it's a it'll be a runaway problem?
- 28:38>> No, they're missing much more than that.
- 28:40>> [laughter]
- 28:41>> I would say that you don't even have to
- 28:43go as far as understanding the risk of
- 28:46irreversible tipping points
- 28:48to to argue that they misunderstood the
- 28:52basics and the very basics is that, you
- 28:54know, we leave the last ice age 12,000
- 28:57years ago and we enter the Holocene,
- 29:00which is a 14° C
- 29:02average temperature on Earth. And the
- 29:04maximum variability during that entire
- 29:0712,000 year period is plus minus 1° C.
- 29:11Okay? So, that's what I call the
- 29:12corridor of life. And why can I call it
- 29:15the corridor of life? Well, it's because
- 29:17you know,
- 29:18who are we
- 29:20when we live in deep ice age? And we've
- 29:22been around on planet Earth for 250,000
- 29:24years as modern humans, fully fully
- 29:27developed modern humans.
- 29:28We've lived through essentially ice ages
- 29:32during that period and it's been a
- 29:34tremendously variable environmental
- 29:36conditions. We did not have the
- 29:38stability that we could use to develop
- 29:40the economies as we know. We were
- 29:41hunters and gatherers, a few million
- 29:43people. We leave the last ice age
- 29:45and we barely enter this corridor of
- 29:47life. And what do we do? Well,
- 29:49everything settles down so stably,
- 29:52freshwater, air temperatures, natural
- 29:56resources,
- 29:57all the ecosystems, all the
- 29:59biodiversity, the fish in the oceans,
- 30:02rainy seasons come and go predictably
- 30:04year after year. So, we go through the
- 30:06Neolithic Revolution. We become farmers.
- 30:09We domesticate animals and plants, which
- 30:10becomes the starting point of the
- 30:13journey that takes us to the modern
- 30:14world of today. So, we know today that
- 30:17we thrive on a planet that has 14° C
- 30:22plus minus 1°. And now we're heading
- 30:24towards 1 and 1/2°. So, conclusion
- 30:27number one is that
- 30:29breaching 1.5° C boundary is a big
- 30:33number, is big danger, and we haven't
- 30:35been there
- 30:37since we left the last ice age. It's the
- 30:38warmest temperature on Earth since we
- 30:39left the last ice age. And we know with
- 30:42essentially zero uncertainty that that
- 30:45leads to more heat waves, more droughts,
- 30:47more floods, more fires, more extreme
- 30:50events. And just the heat waves will, if
- 30:53we start approaching 2° C of warming,
- 30:56and we're heading in that direction very
- 30:57rapidly, will be life-threatening to
- 31:00over 1 billion people in the world. So,
- 31:03you know, it's happening rapidly. It's
- 31:06affecting globally and it's affecting at
- 31:08an unacceptably large number of citizens
- 31:12in the world. And even if you think that
- 31:14you can adapt, even if you think that
- 31:16you live in a privileged corner of the
- 31:18planet, you know, if 1 billion people
- 31:21are climatically in a social disruption,
- 31:26this will cause instability in supply
- 31:28chains, in the stability of the global
- 31:32geopolitical situation.
- 31:33>> to say in politics.
- 31:34>> can hit back very dramatically in
- 31:36migration flows, et cetera. So, you
- 31:39don't want that to happen. So, even
- 31:41before we even come close to discussing
- 31:44tipping points,
- 31:45you have so many unwanted outcomes
- 31:48already early on the journey, already at
- 31:511.5° C,
- 31:53it starts costing. You know, just in
- 31:55we've experienced 1 year where we
- 31:57touched 1.5° C, and that was 2024. That
- 32:00was an El Niño year, the warmest year on
- 32:03record so far. Insurance companies in
- 32:05the world estimate that that cost the
- 32:07global economy over 200 billion US
- 32:09dollars. In many parts of the US, along
- 32:12the coast, you cannot even today get
- 32:16insurance for your houses.
- 32:17>> my part of California, insurance is
- 32:19pulling out, basically. Yeah.
- 32:20>> Because the premium is going up so much
- 32:23because of the risk that has been
- 32:26increasing so fast of of floods,
- 32:30droughts, massively intensified
- 32:33hurricanes. So, you know, this this is
- 32:35real and it's today and I haven't even
- 32:38started to talk about the risks on
- 32:40freshwater security and on food
- 32:42security. You know, when you start
- 32:44having impacts on the stability of food
- 32:47supply chains, this is another social
- 32:50instability factor that can hit very
- 32:53very rapidly. So, you know, and then on
- 32:56top of that comes the tipping point
- 32:57risks, which is the risk of
- 32:59destabilizing the overall system and
- 33:03having a self-amplified warming. What is
- 33:05self-amplified warming? Well, that is
- 33:07the following. Over the past 200 years,
- 33:10it's us causing the warming and the
- 33:12planet has been buffering. So, the
- 33:14planet has been removing 90% of heat and
- 33:1650% of the carbon dioxide.
- 33:18What we are at risk of happening is that
- 33:22we continue the forcing, but suddenly
- 33:24the planet shifts from being our a
- 33:26friend, which it has been for 200 years,
- 33:28to becoming a foe and becoming an
- 33:30emitter in its own right. Then, of
- 33:33course, it gets really scary if the
- 33:35planet and us starts amplifying together
- 33:40by losing methane from permafrost
- 33:42thawing, by fires that release carbon,
- 33:46degraded Amazon rainforest that release
- 33:48carbon, bark beetle outbreaks in
- 33:50temperate forests in Canada that
- 33:51releases carbon. You know, all these
- 33:54factors can can lead to a situation
- 33:57where we accelerate the journey
- 33:59[clears throat] in the wrong direction.
- 34:01Of course, that is something
- 34:03we need to avoid and then
- 34:05you may then say, "Well, but you know,
- 34:08that is um a risk that
- 34:11may be correct, but it's somewhere far
- 34:13in the future."
- 34:14>> Yeah.
- 34:14>> But, the the answer, unfortunately, is
- 34:18that science shows it's not in the
- 34:19future, it's now.
- 34:21It's happening faster than we had
- 34:22expected.
- 34:24There's one critique to be posed on
- 34:26science and that is that we've
- 34:27underestimated the risk and we've
- 34:29underestimated the pace of change. It's
- 34:32unfortunate, but that is the reality.
- 34:33>> Yeah.
- 34:34>> So,
- 34:35>> first of all, thanks for responding to
- 34:37what is just relatively common climate
- 34:40misinformation. I've heard you say
- 34:41before that the climate movement, by
- 34:44speaking so much of the risks, we can
- 34:46make it feel like a movement that's not
- 34:48very fun to join because we're just
- 34:49talking about we need to stop we need to
- 34:51stop harming the planet. I share this
- 34:53view and part of the reason I call this
- 34:55the better future podcast is cuz we want
- 34:57to talk about like how how much better
- 34:59the future can be if we solve these
- 35:00problems.
- 35:02And you've you've said that the the
- 35:04solutions aren't actually mysterious at
- 35:06all. We know exactly what we need to do.
- 35:09Um and so I do want to talk about that
- 35:12world that we want to live in and what
- 35:14it's going to take to get there and how
- 35:16great it could be to live there.
- 35:17>> Let me actually start in in the economic
- 35:19side of this because all economists
- 35:23recognize and agree
- 35:25that
- 35:26constraints is the mother of innovation.
- 35:29It's like the constraints that puts a
- 35:31value
- 35:32on any any capital. And what what the
- 35:35planetary boundaries does is that it
- 35:38puts a constraint on on our space. So,
- 35:42every boundary translates to a budget.
- 35:44So, you have a carbon budget, which is
- 35:47today well understood, but you also then
- 35:49have a budget on biodiversity, on
- 35:52nitrogen, phosphorus, fresh water,
- 35:55air pollution, ocean, and all these
- 35:58budgets translate to the need to be more
- 36:01innovative, more resource efficient.
- 36:04It's not possible to to operate on
- 36:06linear economic models. You have to have
- 36:08circularity in your system.
- 36:10And that takes us to the point where we
- 36:14have a chance to and we see so much
- 36:16evidence of this of moving away from
- 36:19inefficient fossil fuel-based energy
- 36:21provision to much more effective
- 36:24electric ways of mobility, producing,
- 36:27you know, all forms of from steel to
- 36:30built environments to
- 36:33all forms of consumer goods and and
- 36:35replacements of plastics. And so, that
- 36:39is really exciting to see how
- 36:42how the constraints when we
- 36:44scientifically can quantify these
- 36:47boundaries can translate to
- 36:50trigger innovations that can make us
- 36:54smarter and more competitive for
- 36:56industries, but also create a future
- 36:59which
- 37:00gets multiple win-win outcomes. It's not
- 37:03only about solving an environmental
- 37:05problem, you also have massive benefits
- 37:08for human health. I mean, remember that
- 37:11fossil fuel-based driven way of driving
- 37:13the economy prematurely kills over 5 to
- 37:166 million people annually per year. Now,
- 37:19that is a frequency which is higher than
- 37:22the number of people that died during
- 37:23the COVID pandemic. So, we're talking
- 37:26big numbers here.
- 37:27>> And that's due to pollution?
- 37:28>> That's due to air pollution. That's the
- 37:30air pollution related to to fossil fuel
- 37:32burning. And it's the same essentially
- 37:35across all these these transitions that
- 37:37you can see so many benefits that go
- 37:41across health, security, prosperity, and
- 37:43equity. So, that that's kind of
- 37:46the the starting point. This is a
- 37:48constraint that that can be a lever, can
- 37:50unleash a a new modern sustainable
- 37:55future, the future we want. Secondly,
- 37:58we know today the two most important
- 38:00transformations we need to urgently
- 38:03embark on to bring us as close as
- 38:05possible back into the safe operating
- 38:07space of planetary boundaries. And the
- 38:08first one is the energy transition.
- 38:10>> Right.
- 38:10>> I mean, phasing out fossil fuels and
- 38:12having a a renewable green energy power
- 38:16global economy. It's basically an
- 38:18electric solar driven future ultimately.
- 38:20And secondly is the food system
- 38:22transition. Uh we we got almost shocked
- 38:24ourselves when we published the second
- 38:26EAT-Lancet Commission report
- 38:28uh showing that um
- 38:30the way we produce and consume food
- 38:33today is the single largest cause for
- 38:36breaching planetary boundaries. It's
- 38:38quite remarkable. It's 30% of greenhouse
- 38:40gases. It's by far the largest cause of
- 38:43biodiversity loss. It's by far the
- 38:45biggest reason for loading the earth's
- 38:48system with reactive nitrogen and
- 38:49phosphorus because of overuses of
- 38:51fertilizers.
- 38:52It's the largest consumer of fresh water
- 38:54because of irrigation in particular.
- 38:57It is the predominant cause of expansion
- 38:59of land into natural ecosystems. Still
- 39:03the biggest driver of
- 39:05area lost in the Amazon rainforest is
- 39:07for beef and soya, for example. So,
- 39:10however you turn this, you have two
- 39:12large transformations.
- 39:14And the energy transition, moving away
- 39:17from fossil fuels, is today, I mean,
- 39:20when we've not had that situation many
- 39:22years. I mean, I would say somewhere
- 39:24between 5 to 7 years, where we can today
- 39:26conclude that replacing oil, coal, and
- 39:29gas
- 39:31to power the economy is doable
- 39:34essentially across all sectors, and
- 39:36particularly in terms of
- 39:37electrification,
- 39:39there is, to begin with, the lowest
- 39:40hanging fruit here is that it makes no
- 39:42sense in any economy in the world to
- 39:45produce electricity from coal. That era
- 39:48is essentially can only survive with
- 39:50massive subsidies. And we know that
- 39:52we're subsidizing fossil fuel-based
- 39:55uh production systems with over 3
- 39:57trillion US dollars per year. On the
- 39:59food system transition, we also have
- 40:00solutions. We have scalable solutions
- 40:03that can maintain productivity levels,
- 40:05not sacrificing on yields, not
- 40:06sacrificing on incomes for farmers,
- 40:09delivering more localized, seasonally
- 40:12adapted, healthy diets with sustainable
- 40:15intensification practices that exist
- 40:18today. And and that is quite remarkable
- 40:21for a sector that represents up to 30%
- 40:25of the greenhouse gas emissions. So,
- 40:27it's not utopia.
- 40:29It's possible to achieve. And the reason
- 40:32why we're locked in to this
- 40:34inability to to really accelerate these
- 40:36transformations is largely that we have
- 40:39so strong vested interest, so large in
- 40:42subsidies that kind of keeps us
- 40:45>> Yeah.
- 40:45>> stuck in the old paradigm. But if we
- 40:48start really changing policies, getting
- 40:51the right incentives, it's not utopia to
- 40:55get these practices in place because
- 40:58these are technologies that we that we
- 40:59know exist.
- 41:01>> Yeah. First of all, I'm glad you
- 41:02mentioned this point about innovation
- 41:04because I feel like there's this myth
- 41:06that we need to have this profit at all
- 41:09cost, growth at all costs economy in
- 41:11order to have innovation. But it's just
- 41:13so silly to me because to your point, I
- 41:15love I wrote this down, constraint is
- 41:17the mother of innovation. There will be
- 41:18so much great innovation if we simply
- 41:21aim our economy towards
- 41:23a safe space for for human health and
- 41:25and and the health of other species,
- 41:27that will force us to innovate more
- 41:29quickly. But what we're getting now is
- 41:31just innovation for profit. We see
- 41:34effectively the the degradation of the
- 41:37quality of services
- 41:39in order to get as much money from the
- 41:42the end consumer as possible. That's why
- 41:44you see things like planned
- 41:46obsolescence, of products actually
- 41:48getting worse because it means we have
- 41:50to buy new ones more quickly and that
- 41:51drives more profit for the companies
- 41:53that are producing those products.
- 41:54That's the type of innovation we're
- 41:55seeing.
- 41:56>> Mhm.
- 41:56>> It's not innovation that's actually
- 41:58making anyone's life better. So, I
- 41:59really appreciate you making that point.
- 42:00But you talked about the the two, you
- 42:03know, main areas of solutions. Let's
- 42:06maybe maybe wrap up with a discussion
- 42:08about the political economy of how to
- 42:09make that happen because ultimately I
- 42:12feel like like you said, there's the
- 42:14vested interests and the geopolitics of
- 42:16it. It's a major challenge to making
- 42:18this transition happen. Not only do you
- 42:19have big sectors of the economy that
- 42:22have vested interests in keeping things
- 42:24the way that they are, who are pouring
- 42:25money into politics to keep things the
- 42:27way they are, but you also have
- 42:29uh countries that operate on a model of
- 42:33international competition in order to
- 42:35preserve their power and their ideology.
- 42:37On the geopolitical level, you have this
- 42:39kind of myth of endless competition with
- 42:42China that I hear all the time back in
- 42:44the States between the US and China,
- 42:46Russia and its imperial ambitions. So,
- 42:49how do you
- 42:50uh
- 42:51you know, I'm not asking you to solve
- 42:52the entire world here. I know you're a
- 42:53scientist and not necessarily the the
- 42:55ruler of the world. How do you think
- 42:57about
- 42:58these solutions getting getting adopted
- 43:02in a political economy like this that
- 43:03doesn't seem capable of enacting these
- 43:06transitions? Well,
- 43:08I I'm I'm glad that you made that point
- 43:10that yes, I'm merely an Earth system
- 43:12scientist. So, so why ask this question
- 43:13to me? And but it's a it's it's it's an
- 43:15unfair defense line.
- 43:17I say this just because I think your
- 43:19question is perhaps the most important
- 43:21question we have today. And it's a very
- 43:24frustrating and challenging question
- 43:25because what the planetary boundary
- 43:27science shows, what the tipping point
- 43:29science shows, what all sustainability
- 43:31science shows is that we need more
- 43:35collective action than ever before. We
- 43:37need
- 43:38>> [clears throat]
- 43:39>> we need planetary stewardship. We need
- 43:41to basically recognize
- 43:43that we're such a large world on such a
- 43:45small planet, which is under so much
- 43:47pressure, that we need to manage the
- 43:49whole planet as one collective.
- 43:52And we have that evidence exactly the
- 43:55same time point in history
- 43:57where we have an all-time low in trust
- 44:00and such an inability
- 44:02to work together as a world. So, this is
- 44:05this is such an unfortunate timing with
- 44:09all the geopolitical conflicts in the
- 44:11world. So how do you handle that when we
- 44:14know that we will not get a consensus
- 44:16decision at the global level? We can't
- 44:18even we don't even have the US anymore
- 44:20joining the climate
- 44:22>> Yeah.
- 44:22>> discussions. We have a such a weak uh
- 44:26United Nations Security Council at this
- 44:29at this time step. I see though that
- 44:31there is a way through this, which is
- 44:35not my favorite way, I would have wished
- 44:37that we could have stronger global
- 44:40governance in a democratic, well
- 44:42transparent, and representative way. But
- 44:44the way that I think we need to accept
- 44:47as a as a pragmatic way forward
- 44:50is to create
- 44:52coalitions of the willing
- 44:54that are large enough minorities in the
- 44:56world
- 44:57that can start to really implement the
- 45:01pathways back to the safe operating
- 45:03space
- 45:04and to start communicating that and
- 45:07documenting that journey
- 45:09so that
- 45:10the success that very likely will be
- 45:13generated can be communicated to the
- 45:16world at large. So you create a kind of
- 45:19a FOMO
- 45:20>> Yeah.
- 45:21>> situation at the planetary scale. And
- 45:23can that work? Well, actually when you
- 45:25look historically at large social
- 45:28transformations, I mean abandoning
- 45:30slavery or women's voting rights or how
- 45:34we solved acid rain or how we in the end
- 45:38came to terms with the risks of
- 45:40destroying the stratospheric ozone layer
- 45:42when we signed the Montreal Protocol
- 45:44it was never a consensus decision.
- 45:47>> Mhm.
- 45:48>> It was never a kind of a majority of
- 45:50countries that agreed. It was always a
- 45:52large enough minority that that led the
- 45:56way
- 45:57and and when they became a large enough
- 45:59minority
- 46:01often exceeding 25%
- 46:04then they become such a strong force
- 46:07that they could not be neglected by the
- 46:09passive majority because in the majority
- 46:11one should remember and that is
- 46:13definitely the case when it comes to the
- 46:15unwillingness to move away from oil,
- 46:17coal and gas not all of them are denial
- 46:20skeptics or strong vested interest but
- 46:23they're quite agnostic so they're
- 46:24sitting on the fence
- 46:26and they're betting on two horses at the
- 46:28same time
- 46:29>> Right.
- 46:29>> They're both going renewable but at the
- 46:31same time they're staying on the fossil
- 46:33fuels because you don't really know
- 46:34where the world is heading but because
- 46:37as we've been discussing you and I in
- 46:38this this part because we have so much
- 46:40evidence that indeed we are in a
- 46:43gauntlet one should not underestimate
- 46:45the challenges of going across the hump.
- 46:47I mean after all we've been powering the
- 46:48global economy for 200 years in an
- 46:50unsustainable planet
- 46:52threatening way and now we're shifting
- 46:54away to a new system so
- 46:56it isn't easy it isn't even easy even
- 46:58for the Nordics or for
- 47:00you know
- 47:01a country like Germany it is challenging
- 47:03but once you're through
- 47:05we have so much evidence that the
- 47:08outcomes will make you a winner
- 47:12in terms of prosperity, security
- 47:15equity and more independence. So in
- 47:19social transformations that has always
- 47:21been proven to be the way to get large
- 47:23enough minority to tip over the logic. I
- 47:25mean take take this mobile phone you
- 47:28know when when Steve Jobs showed up the
- 47:29mobile phone for the first time he was a
- 47:31minority
- 47:33but it took just a few years and Nokia
- 47:36collapsed, Motorola collapsed,
- 47:38Blackberry collapsed and
- 47:41Apple came out winning and why? It was a
- 47:43technology that gave a better offer. It
- 47:46was a better offer in the end but it was
- 47:47not a majority. So I think moving along
- 47:51these
- 47:52paths where we try to get
- 47:54large enough coalitions of the willing
- 47:57and and I mentioned this particularly at
- 47:59this moment when you and I meet because
- 48:01I just came from Colombia.
- 48:03And in Colombia for the first time the
- 48:05Santa Marta high-level meeting was held
- 48:09where a coalition of the willing of the
- 48:11countries in the world that want to
- 48:12accelerate the phase out of fossil fuels
- 48:14gathered for the first time. And what
- 48:16happened, which I would argue is very
- 48:19you know potentially promising, is that
- 48:21it was 57 countries.
- 48:24And 57 countries you know, you have 195
- 48:27countries in the world. So this is
- 48:28actually more than 25% of the world's
- 48:31countries gathered. They represent 30%
- 48:33of the global GDP. So you know,
- 48:35significant
- 48:36critical mass.
- 48:38And they
- 48:40agreed to commit to hold hands and
- 48:43collectively start moving away from
- 48:45coal, oil, and gas. Now, if they succeed
- 48:48and really start bending the curve, you
- 48:50could think of a situation already
- 48:51within 5 years where they start getting
- 48:54an absolute decoupling from economic
- 48:56development and planet-damaging fossil
- 48:59fuel emissions.
- 49:01And that this, if we then scientifically
- 49:03can map that journey and start producing
- 49:06syntheses of showing this is the
- 49:08benefits it gives economically,
- 49:10socially, health-wise, security. That
- 49:13can become it's a kind of a new theory
- 49:15of change of trying to come from this as
- 49:18as a you know, David hits Goliath kind
- 49:21of approach. And um
- 49:24again, I don't think that is my desired
- 49:26plan A
- 49:27>> Right.
- 49:28>> because I would have wished that we
- 49:29could be stewards of the entire planet
- 49:31in one step.
- 49:32>> Yeah.
- 49:32>> But I think this is the best we can
- 49:35offer today and I think we have to give
- 49:36that a chance to give a chance of
- 49:39of the coalitions of the willing to
- 49:41start showing that this can tip over in
- 49:44social trajectories that can give
- 49:47multiple benefits and that can be a way
- 49:49of accelerating the process.
- 49:51>> I love that and if they are able to
- 49:54deliver better lives for their citizens
- 49:55as well,
- 49:56>> Exactly.
- 49:56>> then it seems like something that
- 49:58everyone's going to want.
- 49:59>> It becomes that attractor. It's the
- 50:01future you want. It's the modern future
- 50:03you aspire to, and why why would I then
- 50:06go backwards into the future or dig
- 50:08myself deeper into the hole of fossil
- 50:10fuels? So, that I think is is one way of
- 50:13kind of saying that, yes, and back to
- 50:15the scientific diagnostic,
- 50:17we are in danger, but it's not too late
- 50:19to turn this around because the planet,
- 50:21despite all the abuse, is
- 50:23biogeochemically remarkably
- 50:26um forgiving still. So, so, you know,
- 50:29the the window is is closing, but it's
- 50:32not closed yet.
- 50:33>> Well, I hope that there's still time.
- 50:35Well, sounds like there is still time
- 50:36for her to forgive forgive us and for us
- 50:39to turn the ship around, and I really
- 50:40appreciate you sort of ending on that
- 50:42optimistic note. Also, since I'm here, I
- 50:45just want to thank you for a career of
- 50:46amazing work and inspiring not only me,
- 50:48but so many people I've interviewed and
- 50:49so many people who who are who are doing
- 50:51the work of making this transition
- 50:52happen. Thank you, and I I really look
- 50:56forward to this better future that you
- 50:58just described because I do think that
- 51:00that is starting to happen, actually. I
- 51:02am seeing that the countries that are
- 51:03that have made the most progress on the
- 51:06green transition and the the land use
- 51:10transition that you talked about are
- 51:12actually
- 51:13the better places to live in the world,
- 51:15it seems.
- 51:16Coming over here for from the US and
- 51:19taking uh public transportation to get
- 51:21here all the way and being in in like a
- 51:24really beautiful green environment, and
- 51:26uh you know, I'm I'm getting a little
- 51:27taste of what it's like to live in an
- 51:29economy that is actually uh making
- 51:31progress and not going in the wrong
- 51:32direction on on climate, and it feels
- 51:35like
- 51:36just better quality of life, lower
- 51:38stress,
- 51:39uh and it's healthy that the government
- 51:41here isn't, you know, starting wars left
- 51:42and right as well. So, maybe there's
- 51:44something to be said there for
- 51:46uh not only
- 51:48solving the climate crisis but also you
- 51:50know solving some of the other
- 51:51geopolitical problems that that we've
- 51:52created as well. So thank you for your
- 51:54work and thank you for your time.
- 51:56>> No, and thanks for inviting me. Great
- 51:57great.
- 51:58>> To learn more about the conference that
- 52:00Roxstrom mentioned at the end of the
- 52:01episode, the one where 57 countries met
- 52:03in Colombia to decide how to phase out
- 52:05fossil fuels, check out the link in the
- 52:07episode description where you can get
- 52:08information on the next one of those
- 52:10conferences scheduled for next year in
- 52:12Tuvalu. And if you want to follow
- 52:13Roxstrom's work, I've included links to
- 52:14that in the episode description as well.
- 52:16And finally, a reminder that Better
- 52:17Future is an independent podcast that
- 52:19depends on your support. So if you like
- 52:21this conversation and you want to hear
- 52:23more conversations like it, please
- 52:24support us with a paid subscription. If
- 52:26you can't do that, it's also really
- 52:27helpful to give us a five-star rating on
- 52:29your preferred podcast platform and to
- 52:31share this episode with a friend who you
- 52:33think [music] would like it. As always,
- 52:34stay curious, stay hopeful, and I'll see
- 52:36you next time. Ciao.
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