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How to Solve the Climate Crisis | Johan Rockström on Planetary Boundaries & the Path Forward — Transcript

by Michael Mezzatesta · 8,827 words · 1,446 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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  1. 0:00In the mid-1950s, we humans shift from
  2. 0:02being this small world on a big planet
  3. 0:04to now being a big world on a small
  4. 0:06planet. We've simply filled up the whole
  5. 0:08space. When you've reached that
  6. 0:09saturation point, the old economic
  7. 0:11paradigm doesn't work anymore. We've
  8. 0:12come to the end of the road of this idea
  9. 0:15that you can exploit for free and then
  10. 0:17waste without any [music] consequences.
  11. 0:19>> Yeah.
  12. 0:19>> Actually, it's quite remarkable despite
  13. 0:21having breached seven of the nine
  14. 0:22boundaries, despite having this climate
  15. 0:24crisis, the scientific conclusion is
  16. 0:27that the planet is still dominated by
  17. 0:29dampening feedbacks, which means that
  18. 0:31it's not too late to turn this around.
  19. 0:32We can, as far as science shows today,
  20. 0:34definitely come back to a manageable
  21. 0:37future where much of nature can
  22. 0:39regenerate if we just release the
  23. 0:40pressure for that accelerator. But, the
  24. 0:42time is running out.
  25. 0:47>> [music]
  26. 0:49>> When you get the chance to interview one
  27. 0:50of the world's greatest climate
  28. 0:51scientists, you do it. But, I will
  29. 0:54admit, I was a bit worried about this
  30. 0:55one because my guest, Johan Rockström,
  31. 0:57has been sounding the alarm about the
  32. 0:59climate crisis for decades. In fact, he
  33. 1:01helped create the framework that many of
  34. 1:03my other guests have built their work on
  35. 1:04top of. We'll discuss it in this
  36. 1:06episode, but the reason I was worried
  37. 1:08about this conversation is that, as far
  38. 1:09as I can tell, the fight against the
  39. 1:11climate crisis isn't going so well. So,
  40. 1:13I thought this conversation might be a
  41. 1:15bit depressing. Well, it turns out I was
  42. 1:17wrong. As you'll hear, Rockström
  43. 1:19believes there is a clear path forward
  44. 1:21to solving the world's biggest
  45. 1:22ecological problems, from climate change
  46. 1:24to biodiversity loss. In fact, he's more
  47. 1:26optimistic now than he was a few years
  48. 1:28ago. In this discussion, we'll talk
  49. 1:30about why. And in the meantime, we'll
  50. 1:31get into climate science, the global
  51. 1:33economy, and the Earth system as a
  52. 1:35whole. All right, let's get into it.
  53. 1:37Johan, thank you so much for being with
  54. 1:38me today.
  55. 1:39>> Thanks for inviting me.
  56. 1:40>> Well, no one's talking about climate
  57. 1:41right now, and I thought it would be
  58. 1:43good to have a little conversation with
  59. 1:44you about what's happening in the Earth
  60. 1:47system and why no one's talking about
  61. 1:50it. My theory is that people are
  62. 1:54too worried about other stuff,
  63. 1:56shorter-term problems, to speak about
  64. 1:59climate, which is a is a longer-term
  65. 2:01issue. Is that your assessment as well,
  66. 2:04or what do you think is happening?
  67. 2:05>> Well, I would take it slightly
  68. 2:07differently. I mean, it for once, I
  69. 2:09think you're slightly biased coming from
  70. 2:10California. Coming to Europe, I would
  71. 2:13argue that climate is not entirely off
  72. 2:16off the stage, but I would also say that
  73. 2:18um it's not that climate is no longer in
  74. 2:21focus, it's that we are rapidly seeing a
  75. 2:24change in narrative, which is actually,
  76. 2:26in my conclusion,
  77. 2:27quite a good development, and is
  78. 2:29something that we scientifically have
  79. 2:30been arguing for a long time, namely
  80. 2:33that the climate crisis, that
  81. 2:35scientifically is well established, is
  82. 2:38not an environmental challenge, is not a
  83. 2:40moral question only,
  84. 2:43it's a question of security, it's a
  85. 2:44question of resilience, it's a question
  86. 2:46of
  87. 2:47the prosperity of tomorrow, and it's a
  88. 2:49question of equity.
  89. 2:51And um
  90. 2:52with uh all the geopolitical instability
  91. 2:54in the world, and all the populism and
  92. 2:56nationalism, and headwinds, and also a
  93. 2:59revival of denialism,
  94. 3:01we see a shift in how we are addressing
  95. 3:05the climate crisis, more articulated in
  96. 3:08terms of security and resilience. So, I
  97. 3:10don't think it's disappeared, it's just
  98. 3:11that it's changed features. It's kind of
  99. 3:14a chameleon behavior, and I think that
  100. 3:16is a maturity of the topic.
  101. 3:18>> Okay, it's good to hear you say that,
  102. 3:19and I think you're right. I am coming
  103. 3:21from a US perspective, where under the
  104. 3:23Trump administration, the climate issue
  105. 3:25has been marginalized. But, it's good to
  106. 3:27hear that that hasn't happened in
  107. 3:29Europe.
  108. 3:29>> It has not, and and uh to be honest, we
  109. 3:33um we feel with you uh on this side of
  110. 3:35the Atlantic.
  111. 3:36>> Good. Thank you for the solidarity.
  112. 3:38>> [laughter]
  113. 3:38>> Yes, it's it's rough over there. Well,
  114. 3:41so tell me what you mean about
  115. 3:42resilience and national security. Are
  116. 3:43you saying that
  117. 3:44countries are starting to view climate
  118. 3:47as a matter of protecting their economy,
  119. 3:51protecting their quality of life of
  120. 3:53their citizenry?
  121. 3:54>> Definitely. I mean, there are there are
  122. 3:55three
  123. 3:56>> [clears throat]
  124. 3:57>> pieces of evidence that are coming
  125. 3:59together right as we speak. I mean, one
  126. 4:01is
  127. 4:02not only that the science on climate
  128. 4:06risks is well established. We are
  129. 4:09unfortunately also seeing overwhelming
  130. 4:12evidence, which I think is sinking in
  131. 4:14also among citizens in general and
  132. 4:16policy makers, business leaders across
  133. 4:19across the world, actually. That is
  134. 4:21hitting faster, harder, and that the
  135. 4:25rate of warming is increasing
  136. 4:28faster than we had expected. So, the
  137. 4:30last 10 years we see that we're going um
  138. 4:34you know, shifting from one rate of
  139. 4:38warming, which is the one that has taken
  140. 4:40us to what we call the climate crisis,
  141. 4:42to an even faster rate of warming. We're
  142. 4:44going to inevitably go into overshoot
  143. 4:47and crashing through 1.5° C probably
  144. 4:49within the next few years. We're heading
  145. 4:51into a new
  146. 4:53most likely a really strong El Niño,
  147. 4:55probably already end of this year. We
  148. 4:57see coral reef systems collapsing. We
  149. 4:59see accelerated rate of melting of
  150. 5:01glaciers. We see
  151. 5:03all forms of droughts and heat waves and
  152. 5:06fires increasing not only in frequency,
  153. 5:08but also in amplitude. So, that is is
  154. 5:10one exponential in terms of the risk.
  155. 5:13The second one is that we have now
  156. 5:16established evidence that across the
  157. 5:18entire world it's simply cheaper and
  158. 5:20smarter to invest in renewable energy
  159. 5:24than particularly power
  160. 5:26the the rapidly developing
  161. 5:27electrification of our economies
  162. 5:30with with coal. It doesn't make sense
  163. 5:32anymore to use coal, not even oil and
  164. 5:34gas to generate electricity, and we're
  165. 5:37moving in in a in a very fast pace
  166. 5:40towards a modern, digital, electrified
  167. 5:43economy. So, that's the next second
  168. 5:45exponential. And the third one is of
  169. 5:47course what happened the next last few
  170. 5:49months with regards to the exponential
  171. 5:52rise in oil and gas prices. And when you
  172. 5:53put that all together, the exponential
  173. 5:56of the energy crisis, the exponential of
  174. 5:58opportunity on renewable energy, and the
  175. 6:00exponential or rapidly rise in risk, put
  176. 6:03that all together and the climate crisis
  177. 6:06turns rapidly into security agenda. It
  178. 6:08becomes a pathway towards independence.
  179. 6:11Turns a pathway into being a much more
  180. 6:14stable in how you handle your nations.
  181. 6:17And remember that 75% of citizens in the
  182. 6:20world are consumers of oil and gas.
  183. 6:23They're not suppliers. So, it doesn't
  184. 6:25make sense to sit in the hands of very
  185. 6:27few suppliers of a very volatile,
  186. 6:30inefficient energy source, which
  187. 6:32moreover pollutes and risks the
  188. 6:35instability of the entire planet. So,
  189. 6:37you don't have to understand all the ins
  190. 6:39and outs of the science to come to the
  191. 6:41conclusion that hmm, this doesn't make
  192. 6:43sense anymore.
  193. 6:44>> Yeah. Well, let's talk about the science
  194. 6:46a little bit because you are a renowned
  195. 6:48climate scientist and you came up with a
  196. 6:50framework called the planetary
  197. 6:52boundaries, which has influenced a lot
  198. 6:53of the guests that I've interviewed on
  199. 6:54this podcast. It's It's the outside of
  200. 6:57the donut for Kate Raworth's donut
  201. 6:58economic system. It's something that has
  202. 7:00inspired Jason Hickel's work in terms of
  203. 7:02degrowth and sort of managing the
  204. 7:04transition to a more sustainable
  205. 7:07economy.
  206. 7:08And so, can you give me a brief overview
  207. 7:10of what the planetary boundaries are and
  208. 7:13how it can help us understand the Earth
  209. 7:16system we live in?
  210. 7:17>> The planetary boundary science, which is
  211. 7:18now, you know,
  212. 7:2015 years of scientific advancements
  213. 7:23under its belt, originates from from
  214. 7:26three, I would argue, extraordinary
  215. 7:28advancements in our understanding of how
  216. 7:31the planet functions. And the first one
  217. 7:34is that we understand today that the
  218. 7:35planet is is a biogeochemically
  219. 7:39complex, self-regulating system that has
  220. 7:42interactions and feedbacks, which means
  221. 7:44that in a healthy state, in a stable
  222. 7:46state, it remains in an equilibrium
  223. 7:49thanks to its feedbacks that can dampen
  224. 7:53and buffer stress. For example, stress
  225. 7:55from It can be a volcanic eruption. It
  226. 7:58can be earthquake. It can be solar
  227. 8:00radiation shifts, but it can also be
  228. 8:02fossil fuel burning.
  229. 8:03But if you push these systems too far,
  230. 8:06you can irreversibly push it to start
  231. 8:10drifting away from that equilibrium
  232. 8:11state.
  233. 8:13And the second line of science is that
  234. 8:14we today know
  235. 8:16that the past 12,000 years, since we
  236. 8:18left the last ice age, is an
  237. 8:19extraordinarily stable equilibrium state
  238. 8:22of the Earth system, a warm interglacial
  239. 8:24called the Holocene. And the Holocene is
  240. 8:26in itself the planet
  241. 8:29we depend on, the planet we have as the
  242. 8:31foundation for everything we love, but
  243. 8:33also everything we uh develop in our
  244. 8:36economies. But we have that as our as
  245. 8:38our measuring point of the desired
  246. 8:40planet. And the third
  247. 8:43and final set of scientific evidence is
  248. 8:45that we today understand that there are
  249. 8:47tipping point systems, a number of large
  250. 8:50biophysical systems that keep them on
  251. 8:52the on the safe side of the fence, and
  252. 8:55they will dampen and help keep the
  253. 8:57planet in a stable Holocene equilibrium.
  254. 9:00But if you push them too far, they will
  255. 9:02irreversibly self-amplify warming and
  256. 9:05move away from that state and undermine
  257. 9:07therefore life support. With these
  258. 9:09areas of science advancing, so how the
  259. 9:13planet operates,
  260. 9:15the Holocene as a reference point, and
  261. 9:17the tipping points being a real
  262. 9:19hardwired parts of the planet,
  263. 9:22the question arose, what are then the
  264. 9:25Earth system processes that can keep the
  265. 9:26planet in a stable state?
  266. 9:28And once we map those nine planetary
  267. 9:31boundary processes that regulates the
  268. 9:34the state of the planet,
  269. 9:36we then asked the question, can we
  270. 9:37quantify safe boundary levels
  271. 9:40that if we stay within them, we have a
  272. 9:42chance of having a high likelihood of
  273. 9:45keeping the planet
  274. 9:46in a life-supporting, resilient, and
  275. 9:48stable state. But go beyond that that
  276. 9:51boundary, we risk
  277. 9:53undermining the stability of the system
  278. 9:56that can start causing feedbacks that
  279. 9:59makes it less and less likely that we
  280. 10:01can maintain good livelihoods for
  281. 10:05species and humans on planet Earth.
  282. 10:07Right. And there you have the planetary
  283. 10:08boundary framework, and we've identified
  284. 10:10nine planetary boundary systems, and
  285. 10:12we've been able to quantify all these
  286. 10:14nine
  287. 10:15using uh, you know, 13 control
  288. 10:17variables. So, several boundaries have
  289. 10:19several indicators, and and these give
  290. 10:22us a quantification
  291. 10:24of a safe operating space that um,
  292. 10:28basically provides
  293. 10:30the the guidance for world development
  294. 10:33within a stable and resilient Earth
  295. 10:35system.
  296. 10:36>> So, it's almost like the quantifying the
  297. 10:39guardrails on how to maintain an
  298. 10:42ecosystem that we can thrive in.
  299. 10:44>> Correct. And why do we need that? So,
  300. 10:46we've been um, operating what we can
  301. 10:49call
  302. 10:50uh, the modern industrialized
  303. 10:54world
  304. 10:55for soon 200 years. And in the
  305. 10:57beginning, when we developed the
  306. 11:00macroeconomic theories, you know, from
  307. 11:02Adam Smith all the way to the uh,
  308. 11:05Keynesian
  309. 11:06macroeconomic
  310. 11:08market economy thinking,
  311. 11:11we could still in the beginning
  312. 11:14defend our unsustainable behavior by
  313. 11:16being a relatively small world economy
  314. 11:19on a very large planet.
  315. 11:21>> Mhm.
  316. 11:21>> So, we had, you know, ample
  317. 11:22biodiversity, ample forest, ample
  318. 11:25atmosphere,
  319. 11:27big oceans that we could exploit fish
  320. 11:29from without having any invoices sent
  321. 11:32back from the planet or any
  322. 11:34risks of causing irreversible damage to
  323. 11:37the planet.
  324. 11:38But then we enter in the mid-1950s what
  325. 11:41is now scientifically defined as the
  326. 11:42Great Acceleration,
  327. 11:44which brings us into the Anthropocene,
  328. 11:45which is that we humans shift from being
  329. 11:48this relatively small world on a big
  330. 11:50planet to now being a big world on a
  331. 11:52small planet. We've simply filled up the
  332. 11:54whole space. We've reached a saturation
  333. 11:56point and start hitting the ceiling of
  334. 11:58the hardwired processes that regulates
  335. 12:01the versability of the system. So, of
  336. 12:03course, when you've reached that
  337. 12:04saturation point, the old economic
  338. 12:06paradigm doesn't work anymore.
  339. 12:07>> Yeah.
  340. 12:07>> You cannot just exploit for free and
  341. 12:10waste without any repercussions. And
  342. 12:13that's why quantifying the guardrails,
  343. 12:17the dashboard for a world to thrive
  344. 12:21within a stable planet
  345. 12:23may not have been necessary, you know,
  346. 12:25in the 16th or 17th century when kind of
  347. 12:27many of the basic ideas of what we still
  348. 12:30operate under when it comes to our
  349. 12:31economic paradigm. But today, it doesn't
  350. 12:34work anymore. We've come to the end of
  351. 12:36the road of this idea that you can
  352. 12:38exploit for free,
  353. 12:40create value for human
  354. 12:43well-being, and then waste without any
  355. 12:45consequences. That era is over. Now we
  356. 12:47have to operate within the safe space.
  357. 12:49And the Planetary Science is the first
  358. 12:51paradigm
  359. 12:53to to develop that safe space, which is
  360. 12:55then a a positive way of of creating
  361. 13:00constraints, indeed, but giving us the
  362. 13:02budgets that we have to respect.
  363. 13:03>> Right.
  364. 13:05So, this is sort of a framework in which
  365. 13:07to think about a new economic operating
  366. 13:09system, where it's not so much about
  367. 13:12extraction and infinite uh pollution and
  368. 13:16and growth at all costs, but a an
  369. 13:19economy that actually sort of
  370. 13:22has feedback loops itself and is more
  371. 13:24circular. Mhm. Um which is something
  372. 13:26we've talked about a lot on this show,
  373. 13:27so it's great to hear like the
  374. 13:29scientific framework for a lot of the
  375. 13:32the economic theory we've been
  376. 13:33discussing. So, thanks for that. Before
  377. 13:35we move on to like what should we
  378. 13:37actually do and what are some of the
  379. 13:38solutions to this problem, let's talk a
  380. 13:41little bit about where we're at and then
  381. 13:42what tipping points are. You said there
  382. 13:44are nine planetary boundaries and the
  383. 13:45last I checked we've breached seven of
  384. 13:47them. Is that the current state of
  385. 13:49things?
  386. 13:50>> Yeah, this is the the latest the October
  387. 13:522025 assessment. We today update the
  388. 13:56planet about the science every year
  389. 13:57actually in what we call the planetary
  390. 14:00health check and in the latest
  391. 14:01assessment, yes, we conclude
  392. 14:03unfortunately that
  393. 14:05not only are the the six planetary
  394. 14:08boundaries that were breached in the
  395. 14:09peer-reviewed scientific paper published
  396. 14:11in 2025, they continue moving in the
  397. 14:14wrong direction.
  398. 14:15The seventh boundary is the ocean
  399. 14:17acidification boundary that has just
  400. 14:19crossed the safe boundary level. So,
  401. 14:21this is a a really deep concern that the
  402. 14:24conclusion is that we have a planetary
  403. 14:27crisis on our watch and and
  404. 14:31one way of articulating this is that
  405. 14:33we're doing it a double mistake and
  406. 14:35taking a big risk that we're breaching
  407. 14:38the climate boundary, one of the nine,
  408. 14:40which means that we're loading
  409. 14:42greenhouse gases causing
  410. 14:45this energy imbalance on planet Earth
  411. 14:47and we're injecting massive heat into
  412. 14:50the system and at the same time we're
  413. 14:53undermining what I call the biosphere
  414. 14:55boundary. So, among these nine
  415. 14:57boundaries you have biodiversity,
  416. 15:00overconsumption of fresh water,
  417. 15:02changes in the configuration of large
  418. 15:04biomes, the land use change boundary,
  419. 15:06which is predominantly about how much
  420. 15:10deforestation do we have in tropical
  421. 15:11rainforest and temperate forest and
  422. 15:13boreal forest. We're overloading with
  423. 15:15nitrogen and phosphorus, which is the
  424. 15:17biogeochemical boundary, overconsumption
  425. 15:20of fresh water as I said, overloading of
  426. 15:22chemicals, and finally then
  427. 15:24acidifying the ocean.
  428. 15:26And this is,
  429. 15:27you know, remarkable that we're allowing
  430. 15:29ourselves to not only add more
  431. 15:31greenhouse gases causing greenhouse gas
  432. 15:34emissions and global warming,
  433. 15:36we're also undermining the resilience of
  434. 15:38the Earth system by breaching the nature
  435. 15:41boundaries. And the nature boundaries
  436. 15:42are so fundamental because a healthy
  437. 15:44planet
  438. 15:46with the ability
  439. 15:48to buffer
  440. 15:49provides and has been providing since we
  441. 15:52started burning fossil fuels just a
  442. 15:54remarkable free service to humanity by
  443. 15:56removing 90% heat in the ocean. So, can
  444. 16:00you imagine 90% of the heat
  445. 16:02injected by our fossil fuel burning is
  446. 16:04not in the atmosphere causing the
  447. 16:05temperature rise that has created all
  448. 16:07the droughts and the floods and the
  449. 16:08fires and the real human reinforced
  450. 16:10storms, it's in the ocean. It's being
  451. 16:12buffered in this enormous thermostat.
  452. 16:14>> It's absorbed.
  453. 16:15>> And it's absorbed, and but it's not it's
  454. 16:17not disappearing, it's there. It's
  455. 16:18stored in the ocean, which
  456. 16:20um leads to stronger storms, leads to I
  457. 16:23mean hurricanes and and typhoons. It
  458. 16:25leads to um
  459. 16:27um more frequent and and and more severe
  460. 16:30El Niño events. So, it's starting to
  461. 16:32show signs of of
  462. 16:35not being entirely stored away, but can
  463. 16:38actually hit us back. But, the second
  464. 16:40buffering uh service from the
  465. 16:43healthy boundaries is that 50% of the
  466. 16:45carbon dioxide that we emit from fossil
  467. 16:47fuel burning is absorbed in nature on
  468. 16:50land and in the ocean.
  469. 16:52And this can only [snorts] be maintained
  470. 16:55if we stay within the safe planetary
  471. 16:57boundaries. So, we see, for example, now
  472. 17:00that the deforestation in the Amazon
  473. 17:02rainforest has gone so far that the
  474. 17:05Brazilian part of the Amazon basin has
  475. 17:08tipped over from no longer being a
  476. 17:09carbon sink, it's a net carbon source.
  477. 17:12And we see the similar signs in
  478. 17:14temperate forests in Canada, in the
  479. 17:16Nordic region, and in boreal forests.
  480. 17:19So, here you have a situation where it
  481. 17:21boils down to our responsibility to keep
  482. 17:24the resilience of the planet intact, and
  483. 17:26that's what the planetary boundaries try
  484. 17:27to protect, the ability of the planet to
  485. 17:30buffer stress, to avoid that we cross
  486. 17:33too many thresholds that could lead to a
  487. 17:36drift away from stable conditions. We're
  488. 17:39not there yet. Actually, it's quite
  489. 17:40remarkable, despite having breached
  490. 17:42seven of the nine boundaries,
  491. 17:44despite having this climate crisis, the
  492. 17:47scientific conclusion in this latest
  493. 17:49planetary boundary health check is that
  494. 17:51the planet is still, despite all these
  495. 17:54unsustainable pressures, dominated by
  496. 17:57dampening feedbacks, which means that
  497. 17:58it's not too late to turn this around.
  498. 18:00But, the time is running out.
  499. 18:02>> That's good to hear that it's not too
  500. 18:04late. I think a lot of people have lost
  501. 18:06hope and feel like it's too late cuz of
  502. 18:07the alarmism of the climate movement, to
  503. 18:11be honest. I mean, of which I consider
  504. 18:13myself a part, but sometimes it can feel
  505. 18:16like we're
  506. 18:17talking about a world that's basically
  507. 18:19over, and I I don't think that's the
  508. 18:21right message to share
  509. 18:23to get people inspired about being able
  510. 18:25to turn the ship around and actually get
  511. 18:27back into safe a safe space for for life
  512. 18:30to thrive. So,
  513. 18:31>> No, but I agree with you, and and this
  514. 18:32is why I think that, you know, while the
  515. 18:35planetary boundaries science is a kind
  516. 18:37of a diagnostic tool, and it sends, of
  517. 18:39course, a very dire message,
  518. 18:42but I would also argue it's one of the
  519. 18:43most hopeful frameworks we have. Because
  520. 18:45isn't it fantastic that we now have the
  521. 18:47safe boundaries? We we have the playing
  522. 18:49field where we can be successful, and we
  523. 18:51can have a prosperous, equitable,
  524. 18:54responsible future, and it isn't too
  525. 18:56late to return back. We can, as far as
  526. 18:58science shows today, definitely come
  527. 19:00back to a manageable future where much
  528. 19:03of nature can regenerate if we just
  529. 19:06release the pressure for that
  530. 19:07accelerator.
  531. 19:08>> Yeah. And, like I said, we're about to
  532. 19:10get into that. I I I do want to make one
  533. 19:12comment about what you just mentioned on
  534. 19:13the boundaries that I appreciate is that
  535. 19:15there's a focus on
  536. 19:17eight other boundaries, not just global
  537. 19:20temperature, right? I think that the
  538. 19:21climate discussion often fixates so much
  539. 19:24on global warming, and that might be a
  540. 19:26residual effect of everyone hearing
  541. 19:28about global warming from Al Gore with
  542. 19:30the the inconvenient truth, and then
  543. 19:32that kind of being the their frame of
  544. 19:34reference for
  545. 19:35the climate crisis. But, what I
  546. 19:37appreciate about your work is that the
  547. 19:39it actually shines a light on the eight
  548. 19:40other boundaries that we have, and
  549. 19:43biodiversity being one that's very near
  550. 19:44and dear to my heart that often gets
  551. 19:46ignored, but is so important. And it
  552. 19:48actually there's feedback between
  553. 19:49biodiversity and temperature. And so, I
  554. 19:51think that's really helpful because it
  555. 19:52does feel like sometimes we fixate too
  556. 19:54much on just temperature.
  557. 19:55>> Absolutely. I totally agree. And it just
  558. 19:57so happens that today when we meet here,
  559. 20:00we published a paper in nature showing
  560. 20:03that
  561. 20:04we can still
  562. 20:06protect the Amazon rainforest, planet
  563. 20:09Earth's richest ecosystem on land,
  564. 20:12by far in terms of biodiversity, but
  565. 20:15also in terms of its fantastic role in
  566. 20:18generating 40% of its own rainfall and
  567. 20:21providing fresh water supply across the
  568. 20:23entire continent, and being a massive
  569. 20:26stock of carbon. So, it's an interest
  570. 20:28for all of us in the world to keep a
  571. 20:31healthy, thriving Amazon rainforest. And
  572. 20:34we show in a in a nature research
  573. 20:36article today
  574. 20:37that unfortunately,
  575. 20:39if we continue losing biodiversity at
  576. 20:42the pace of today and continue cutting
  577. 20:44down the forest, we've lost 17% of the
  578. 20:47cover of the Amazon forest. 17.
  579. 20:50>> Okay.
  580. 20:50>> And if we exceed 25% and we're moving in
  581. 20:53that direction,
  582. 20:54then the temperature level, the global
  583. 20:56warming level at which the system is at
  584. 20:59risk of crossing a tipping point where
  585. 21:01it would irreversibly become a degraded
  586. 21:03bush savanna,
  587. 21:05goes down from if you look only at
  588. 21:07climate, the risk level is put somewhere
  589. 21:10between 3 and 4° C of warming, so low
  590. 21:13risk, but if you factor in loss of
  591. 21:14biodiversity, loss of canopy cover, and
  592. 21:18and changes in hydrology, so three
  593. 21:19additional planetary boundaries, the
  594. 21:21temperature risk goes down to somewhere
  595. 21:23between 1 and 2° C.
  596. 21:25So, the planetary boundaries
  597. 21:27are fundamental to understand the
  598. 21:29ability of these precious system that we
  599. 21:32all depend on for the stability of our
  600. 21:34economies and the planet to stay stable.
  601. 21:37So, to express it another way, even if
  602. 21:39we would stop burning fossil fuels
  603. 21:42entirely tomorrow morning, we would
  604. 21:44still breach the 1.5° C limit if we
  605. 21:48continue losing
  606. 21:50biodiversity, over consuming fresh
  607. 21:52water, overloading nitrogen phosphorus,
  608. 21:54changing land systems, changing the
  609. 21:56ocean, because those feedbacks would
  610. 21:59themselves amplify the warming. So, we
  611. 22:01we have no choice. We have to become
  612. 22:03stewards of the planet. I mean, you
  613. 22:06could argue that for moral reasons we
  614. 22:07should do it, but even if you focus only
  615. 22:10on your security and your economy, you
  616. 22:12want to go down a sustainable route to
  617. 22:15be successful. And and and I would even
  618. 22:18to me, that is the winning path today.
  619. 22:20>> Yeah. You mentioned tipping points. Can
  620. 22:22you explain what what a tipping point is
  621. 22:23because it sounds like there's a certain
  622. 22:25amount of biodiversity loss, canopy
  623. 22:27cover loss, temperature change that
  624. 22:29would cause the Amazon rainforest to
  625. 22:31basically not be a rainforest anymore?
  626. 22:33>> Correct. Yeah, so tipping points is the
  627. 22:36understanding today that we have a large
  628. 22:39number of of large biophysical systems
  629. 22:42on Earth like the Amazon rainforest,
  630. 22:44like the Greenland ice sheet, like the
  631. 22:46permafrost systems
  632. 22:48that have multiple stable states
  633. 22:50and they're separated by a threshold.
  634. 22:54And it just so happens that over the
  635. 22:57past 12,000 years, all these systems
  636. 22:59have landed and being configured in a
  637. 23:02state that we depend on we can call that
  638. 23:05the healthy state, the state we need.
  639. 23:07So, rainforest is one for example.
  640. 23:09And they stay in this stable state
  641. 23:11because they're dominated by a set of
  642. 23:13feedbacks that makes them
  643. 23:15remain [clears throat] in this stable
  644. 23:16state. And the feedback for the Amazon
  645. 23:18rainforest is this ability to generate
  646. 23:2140% of its own rainfall. And if you push
  647. 23:25these systems too far, they will cross a
  648. 23:28threshold. That's what we call the
  649. 23:29tipping point. And the moment they cross
  650. 23:31a threshold, the the feedback that keeps
  651. 23:34them in a rainforest state
  652. 23:36turns off. And instead, you go from
  653. 23:38self-moistening therefore to
  654. 23:40self-drying. And this is what
  655. 23:42irreversibly pushes this system to
  656. 23:44become a degraded savanna system.
  657. 23:46Perhaps even more pedagogic is is is ice
  658. 23:49sheets. The Greenland ice sheet
  659. 23:51is in an equilibrium state that is, you
  660. 23:55know,
  661. 23:56where it lands after we left the last
  662. 23:58ice age. It reaches this equilibrium
  663. 24:00because it is 3 km high. And anyone
  664. 24:04who's walked up a mountain knows that
  665. 24:06the higher up you walk, the colder it
  666. 24:07is. So, it's really cold up there.
  667. 24:10And also it's a white surface. And a
  668. 24:12white surface reflects 90% of incoming
  669. 24:16heat back to space. So, it's a cooling
  670. 24:19system. When this system starts melting,
  671. 24:22the surface gets darker because liquid
  672. 24:24water is darker than the ice. And it
  673. 24:26gets lower and lower in altitude. So, at
  674. 24:30a at a very specific point, it crosses a
  675. 24:33threshold where it goes from being net
  676. 24:36cooling to becoming net warming. And
  677. 24:39that's the tipping point. And at that
  678. 24:41point, it's like pressing an on button.
  679. 24:43The system
  680. 24:45cannot be turned back. It's it's an
  681. 24:47irreversible point where it will simply
  682. 24:49self-amplify
  683. 24:51the melting journey, whatever you do.
  684. 24:54And this is the tipping point. Yeah. And
  685. 24:56it's important to recognize that tipping
  686. 24:57points is when you press essentially an
  687. 25:00on button and you commit yourself to a
  688. 25:03state shift. An a rainforest becomes a
  689. 25:06savanna, an ice sheet becomes a liquid
  690. 25:08surface.
  691. 25:10The overturning of heat in the North
  692. 25:12Atlantic is switched on or off
  693. 25:14basically. And it may take um
  694. 25:17the Greenland ice sheet, which
  695. 25:18represents 6 to 7 m sea level rise, it
  696. 25:21would be a catastrophe if we did press
  697. 25:23that on button,
  698. 25:25but it may take 1,000 years for it to
  699. 25:26completely melt, but it would be
  700. 25:28irreversible. So, we would commit
  701. 25:30ourselves very soon, but it could take a
  702. 25:32long time it will take a long time
  703. 25:34before it's
  704. 25:35the full impact is is felt.
  705. 25:37But my conclusion is
  706. 25:39that what matters is the commitment
  707. 25:41time. That's what our responsibility is.
  708. 25:43And our economic system cannot deal with
  709. 25:46impacts that hit 100 years in the future
  710. 25:49or 1,000 years in the future, but what
  711. 25:51matters is when do I press this on
  712. 25:53button
  713. 25:54>> Yeah.
  714. 25:54>> to to cause a situation where we hand
  715. 25:56over to
  716. 25:57>> [clears throat]
  717. 25:58>> our children and all future generations
  718. 26:00a less and less livable planet.
  719. 26:01>> Right.
  720. 26:02>> That's what tipping points really
  721. 26:03represents. And we've today mapped 16 of
  722. 26:06these so-called climate tipping element
  723. 26:08systems. These are the large tipping
  724. 26:10point systems that we scientifically
  725. 26:12today know contribute to regulate the
  726. 26:14climate stability and that they have
  727. 26:16multiple stable states. And the Amazon
  728. 26:18rainforest is one of them. The Greenland
  729. 26:20ice sheet is another one of them. The
  730. 26:22ocean circulation system in the North
  731. 26:23Atlantic, the AMOC, is the third one.
  732. 26:26>> So, these are the big biophysical
  733. 26:27systems that that can, if we push them
  734. 26:30too far, can tip over,
  735. 26:32but that they help us and actually
  736. 26:35buffer and and cool down the system when
  737. 26:38they are in the state that we depend on
  738. 26:41and that happens to be the state that
  739. 26:42they've been in since we left the last
  740. 26:44ice age.
  741. 26:44>> Got it.
  742. 26:45>> And now we're pushing ourselves and what
  743. 26:47I what I should end by saying is that
  744. 26:50among these 16 that we've mapped, one of
  745. 26:53them
  746. 26:54is concluded to be essentially at the
  747. 26:57tipping point today, and those are the
  748. 26:58tropical coral reef systems. So, this is
  749. 27:01very likely victim number one.
  750. 27:03>> Mhm.
  751. 27:04>> And these are key [snorts] regulators of
  752. 27:07the biology and the health in the ocean.
  753. 27:11And they are livelihoods we know of
  754. 27:14probably over 400 million people today.
  755. 27:16So, these are this is a really big
  756. 27:18system.
  757. 27:19And then, the second in the line,
  758. 27:22there's a whole set of of tipping
  759. 27:25elements system that are scientifically
  760. 27:27now shown to be at risk if we when we
  761. 27:30exceed 1.5° C of global mean surface
  762. 27:33temperature rise, and the Amazon
  763. 27:35rainforest is among those. But, we also
  764. 27:37have the Greenland ice sheet there, the
  765. 27:39West Antarctic ice sheet, abrupt thawing
  766. 27:41of permafrost. So, big systems that that
  767. 27:45shows scientifically
  768. 27:47that we have everything to gain from
  769. 27:49moving away from that danger. But, we
  770. 27:51use this science on tipping points to
  771. 27:54quantify the boundaries. So, the
  772. 27:55planetary boundaries is an Earth system
  773. 27:58science grounded methodology of setting
  774. 28:02the guardrails to avoid that we cause
  775. 28:05these kind of
  776. 28:07many times irreversible damage to to the
  777. 28:10life support systems.
  778. 28:12>> So,
  779. 28:13I can hear some people, especially back
  780. 28:15in my country, who are a little bit
  781. 28:16misinformed on this topic,
  782. 28:18saying,
  783. 28:20"Okay, the perceived risks of of the
  784. 28:23climate crisis are overblown. That
  785. 28:25humans can adapt, and in some places,
  786. 28:28uh a warmer climate is actually going to
  787. 28:30be a good thing." What What are they
  788. 28:31missing? Are they missing this this
  789. 28:33tipping point sort of understanding that
  790. 28:36it it's a it'll be a runaway problem?
  791. 28:38>> No, they're missing much more than that.
  792. 28:40>> [laughter]
  793. 28:41>> I would say that you don't even have to
  794. 28:43go as far as understanding the risk of
  795. 28:46irreversible tipping points
  796. 28:48to to argue that they misunderstood the
  797. 28:52basics and the very basics is that, you
  798. 28:54know, we leave the last ice age 12,000
  799. 28:57years ago and we enter the Holocene,
  800. 29:00which is a 14° C
  801. 29:02average temperature on Earth. And the
  802. 29:04maximum variability during that entire
  803. 29:0712,000 year period is plus minus 1° C.
  804. 29:11Okay? So, that's what I call the
  805. 29:12corridor of life. And why can I call it
  806. 29:15the corridor of life? Well, it's because
  807. 29:17you know,
  808. 29:18who are we
  809. 29:20when we live in deep ice age? And we've
  810. 29:22been around on planet Earth for 250,000
  811. 29:24years as modern humans, fully fully
  812. 29:27developed modern humans.
  813. 29:28We've lived through essentially ice ages
  814. 29:32during that period and it's been a
  815. 29:34tremendously variable environmental
  816. 29:36conditions. We did not have the
  817. 29:38stability that we could use to develop
  818. 29:40the economies as we know. We were
  819. 29:41hunters and gatherers, a few million
  820. 29:43people. We leave the last ice age
  821. 29:45and we barely enter this corridor of
  822. 29:47life. And what do we do? Well,
  823. 29:49everything settles down so stably,
  824. 29:52freshwater, air temperatures, natural
  825. 29:56resources,
  826. 29:57all the ecosystems, all the
  827. 29:59biodiversity, the fish in the oceans,
  828. 30:02rainy seasons come and go predictably
  829. 30:04year after year. So, we go through the
  830. 30:06Neolithic Revolution. We become farmers.
  831. 30:09We domesticate animals and plants, which
  832. 30:10becomes the starting point of the
  833. 30:13journey that takes us to the modern
  834. 30:14world of today. So, we know today that
  835. 30:17we thrive on a planet that has 14° C
  836. 30:22plus minus 1°. And now we're heading
  837. 30:24towards 1 and 1/2°. So, conclusion
  838. 30:27number one is that
  839. 30:29breaching 1.5° C boundary is a big
  840. 30:33number, is big danger, and we haven't
  841. 30:35been there
  842. 30:37since we left the last ice age. It's the
  843. 30:38warmest temperature on Earth since we
  844. 30:39left the last ice age. And we know with
  845. 30:42essentially zero uncertainty that that
  846. 30:45leads to more heat waves, more droughts,
  847. 30:47more floods, more fires, more extreme
  848. 30:50events. And just the heat waves will, if
  849. 30:53we start approaching 2° C of warming,
  850. 30:56and we're heading in that direction very
  851. 30:57rapidly, will be life-threatening to
  852. 31:00over 1 billion people in the world. So,
  853. 31:03you know, it's happening rapidly. It's
  854. 31:06affecting globally and it's affecting at
  855. 31:08an unacceptably large number of citizens
  856. 31:12in the world. And even if you think that
  857. 31:14you can adapt, even if you think that
  858. 31:16you live in a privileged corner of the
  859. 31:18planet, you know, if 1 billion people
  860. 31:21are climatically in a social disruption,
  861. 31:26this will cause instability in supply
  862. 31:28chains, in the stability of the global
  863. 31:32geopolitical situation.
  864. 31:33>> to say in politics.
  865. 31:34>> can hit back very dramatically in
  866. 31:36migration flows, et cetera. So, you
  867. 31:39don't want that to happen. So, even
  868. 31:41before we even come close to discussing
  869. 31:44tipping points,
  870. 31:45you have so many unwanted outcomes
  871. 31:48already early on the journey, already at
  872. 31:511.5° C,
  873. 31:53it starts costing. You know, just in
  874. 31:55we've experienced 1 year where we
  875. 31:57touched 1.5° C, and that was 2024. That
  876. 32:00was an El Niño year, the warmest year on
  877. 32:03record so far. Insurance companies in
  878. 32:05the world estimate that that cost the
  879. 32:07global economy over 200 billion US
  880. 32:09dollars. In many parts of the US, along
  881. 32:12the coast, you cannot even today get
  882. 32:16insurance for your houses.
  883. 32:17>> my part of California, insurance is
  884. 32:19pulling out, basically. Yeah.
  885. 32:20>> Because the premium is going up so much
  886. 32:23because of the risk that has been
  887. 32:26increasing so fast of of floods,
  888. 32:30droughts, massively intensified
  889. 32:33hurricanes. So, you know, this this is
  890. 32:35real and it's today and I haven't even
  891. 32:38started to talk about the risks on
  892. 32:40freshwater security and on food
  893. 32:42security. You know, when you start
  894. 32:44having impacts on the stability of food
  895. 32:47supply chains, this is another social
  896. 32:50instability factor that can hit very
  897. 32:53very rapidly. So, you know, and then on
  898. 32:56top of that comes the tipping point
  899. 32:57risks, which is the risk of
  900. 32:59destabilizing the overall system and
  901. 33:03having a self-amplified warming. What is
  902. 33:05self-amplified warming? Well, that is
  903. 33:07the following. Over the past 200 years,
  904. 33:10it's us causing the warming and the
  905. 33:12planet has been buffering. So, the
  906. 33:14planet has been removing 90% of heat and
  907. 33:1650% of the carbon dioxide.
  908. 33:18What we are at risk of happening is that
  909. 33:22we continue the forcing, but suddenly
  910. 33:24the planet shifts from being our a
  911. 33:26friend, which it has been for 200 years,
  912. 33:28to becoming a foe and becoming an
  913. 33:30emitter in its own right. Then, of
  914. 33:33course, it gets really scary if the
  915. 33:35planet and us starts amplifying together
  916. 33:40by losing methane from permafrost
  917. 33:42thawing, by fires that release carbon,
  918. 33:46degraded Amazon rainforest that release
  919. 33:48carbon, bark beetle outbreaks in
  920. 33:50temperate forests in Canada that
  921. 33:51releases carbon. You know, all these
  922. 33:54factors can can lead to a situation
  923. 33:57where we accelerate the journey
  924. 33:59[clears throat] in the wrong direction.
  925. 34:01Of course, that is something
  926. 34:03we need to avoid and then
  927. 34:05you may then say, "Well, but you know,
  928. 34:08that is um a risk that
  929. 34:11may be correct, but it's somewhere far
  930. 34:13in the future."
  931. 34:14>> Yeah.
  932. 34:14>> But, the the answer, unfortunately, is
  933. 34:18that science shows it's not in the
  934. 34:19future, it's now.
  935. 34:21It's happening faster than we had
  936. 34:22expected.
  937. 34:24There's one critique to be posed on
  938. 34:26science and that is that we've
  939. 34:27underestimated the risk and we've
  940. 34:29underestimated the pace of change. It's
  941. 34:32unfortunate, but that is the reality.
  942. 34:33>> Yeah.
  943. 34:34>> So,
  944. 34:35>> first of all, thanks for responding to
  945. 34:37what is just relatively common climate
  946. 34:40misinformation. I've heard you say
  947. 34:41before that the climate movement, by
  948. 34:44speaking so much of the risks, we can
  949. 34:46make it feel like a movement that's not
  950. 34:48very fun to join because we're just
  951. 34:49talking about we need to stop we need to
  952. 34:51stop harming the planet. I share this
  953. 34:53view and part of the reason I call this
  954. 34:55the better future podcast is cuz we want
  955. 34:57to talk about like how how much better
  956. 34:59the future can be if we solve these
  957. 35:00problems.
  958. 35:02And you've you've said that the the
  959. 35:04solutions aren't actually mysterious at
  960. 35:06all. We know exactly what we need to do.
  961. 35:09Um and so I do want to talk about that
  962. 35:12world that we want to live in and what
  963. 35:14it's going to take to get there and how
  964. 35:16great it could be to live there.
  965. 35:17>> Let me actually start in in the economic
  966. 35:19side of this because all economists
  967. 35:23recognize and agree
  968. 35:25that
  969. 35:26constraints is the mother of innovation.
  970. 35:29It's like the constraints that puts a
  971. 35:31value
  972. 35:32on any any capital. And what what the
  973. 35:35planetary boundaries does is that it
  974. 35:38puts a constraint on on our space. So,
  975. 35:42every boundary translates to a budget.
  976. 35:44So, you have a carbon budget, which is
  977. 35:47today well understood, but you also then
  978. 35:49have a budget on biodiversity, on
  979. 35:52nitrogen, phosphorus, fresh water,
  980. 35:55air pollution, ocean, and all these
  981. 35:58budgets translate to the need to be more
  982. 36:01innovative, more resource efficient.
  983. 36:04It's not possible to to operate on
  984. 36:06linear economic models. You have to have
  985. 36:08circularity in your system.
  986. 36:10And that takes us to the point where we
  987. 36:14have a chance to and we see so much
  988. 36:16evidence of this of moving away from
  989. 36:19inefficient fossil fuel-based energy
  990. 36:21provision to much more effective
  991. 36:24electric ways of mobility, producing,
  992. 36:27you know, all forms of from steel to
  993. 36:30built environments to
  994. 36:33all forms of consumer goods and and
  995. 36:35replacements of plastics. And so, that
  996. 36:39is really exciting to see how
  997. 36:42how the constraints when we
  998. 36:44scientifically can quantify these
  999. 36:47boundaries can translate to
  1000. 36:50trigger innovations that can make us
  1001. 36:54smarter and more competitive for
  1002. 36:56industries, but also create a future
  1003. 36:59which
  1004. 37:00gets multiple win-win outcomes. It's not
  1005. 37:03only about solving an environmental
  1006. 37:05problem, you also have massive benefits
  1007. 37:08for human health. I mean, remember that
  1008. 37:11fossil fuel-based driven way of driving
  1009. 37:13the economy prematurely kills over 5 to
  1010. 37:166 million people annually per year. Now,
  1011. 37:19that is a frequency which is higher than
  1012. 37:22the number of people that died during
  1013. 37:23the COVID pandemic. So, we're talking
  1014. 37:26big numbers here.
  1015. 37:27>> And that's due to pollution?
  1016. 37:28>> That's due to air pollution. That's the
  1017. 37:30air pollution related to to fossil fuel
  1018. 37:32burning. And it's the same essentially
  1019. 37:35across all these these transitions that
  1020. 37:37you can see so many benefits that go
  1021. 37:41across health, security, prosperity, and
  1022. 37:43equity. So, that that's kind of
  1023. 37:46the the starting point. This is a
  1024. 37:48constraint that that can be a lever, can
  1025. 37:50unleash a a new modern sustainable
  1026. 37:55future, the future we want. Secondly,
  1027. 37:58we know today the two most important
  1028. 38:00transformations we need to urgently
  1029. 38:03embark on to bring us as close as
  1030. 38:05possible back into the safe operating
  1031. 38:07space of planetary boundaries. And the
  1032. 38:08first one is the energy transition.
  1033. 38:10>> Right.
  1034. 38:10>> I mean, phasing out fossil fuels and
  1035. 38:12having a a renewable green energy power
  1036. 38:16global economy. It's basically an
  1037. 38:18electric solar driven future ultimately.
  1038. 38:20And secondly is the food system
  1039. 38:22transition. Uh we we got almost shocked
  1040. 38:24ourselves when we published the second
  1041. 38:26EAT-Lancet Commission report
  1042. 38:28uh showing that um
  1043. 38:30the way we produce and consume food
  1044. 38:33today is the single largest cause for
  1045. 38:36breaching planetary boundaries. It's
  1046. 38:38quite remarkable. It's 30% of greenhouse
  1047. 38:40gases. It's by far the largest cause of
  1048. 38:43biodiversity loss. It's by far the
  1049. 38:45biggest reason for loading the earth's
  1050. 38:48system with reactive nitrogen and
  1051. 38:49phosphorus because of overuses of
  1052. 38:51fertilizers.
  1053. 38:52It's the largest consumer of fresh water
  1054. 38:54because of irrigation in particular.
  1055. 38:57It is the predominant cause of expansion
  1056. 38:59of land into natural ecosystems. Still
  1057. 39:03the biggest driver of
  1058. 39:05area lost in the Amazon rainforest is
  1059. 39:07for beef and soya, for example. So,
  1060. 39:10however you turn this, you have two
  1061. 39:12large transformations.
  1062. 39:14And the energy transition, moving away
  1063. 39:17from fossil fuels, is today, I mean,
  1064. 39:20when we've not had that situation many
  1065. 39:22years. I mean, I would say somewhere
  1066. 39:24between 5 to 7 years, where we can today
  1067. 39:26conclude that replacing oil, coal, and
  1068. 39:29gas
  1069. 39:31to power the economy is doable
  1070. 39:34essentially across all sectors, and
  1071. 39:36particularly in terms of
  1072. 39:37electrification,
  1073. 39:39there is, to begin with, the lowest
  1074. 39:40hanging fruit here is that it makes no
  1075. 39:42sense in any economy in the world to
  1076. 39:45produce electricity from coal. That era
  1077. 39:48is essentially can only survive with
  1078. 39:50massive subsidies. And we know that
  1079. 39:52we're subsidizing fossil fuel-based
  1080. 39:55uh production systems with over 3
  1081. 39:57trillion US dollars per year. On the
  1082. 39:59food system transition, we also have
  1083. 40:00solutions. We have scalable solutions
  1084. 40:03that can maintain productivity levels,
  1085. 40:05not sacrificing on yields, not
  1086. 40:06sacrificing on incomes for farmers,
  1087. 40:09delivering more localized, seasonally
  1088. 40:12adapted, healthy diets with sustainable
  1089. 40:15intensification practices that exist
  1090. 40:18today. And and that is quite remarkable
  1091. 40:21for a sector that represents up to 30%
  1092. 40:25of the greenhouse gas emissions. So,
  1093. 40:27it's not utopia.
  1094. 40:29It's possible to achieve. And the reason
  1095. 40:32why we're locked in to this
  1096. 40:34inability to to really accelerate these
  1097. 40:36transformations is largely that we have
  1098. 40:39so strong vested interest, so large in
  1099. 40:42subsidies that kind of keeps us
  1100. 40:45>> Yeah.
  1101. 40:45>> stuck in the old paradigm. But if we
  1102. 40:48start really changing policies, getting
  1103. 40:51the right incentives, it's not utopia to
  1104. 40:55get these practices in place because
  1105. 40:58these are technologies that we that we
  1106. 40:59know exist.
  1107. 41:01>> Yeah. First of all, I'm glad you
  1108. 41:02mentioned this point about innovation
  1109. 41:04because I feel like there's this myth
  1110. 41:06that we need to have this profit at all
  1111. 41:09cost, growth at all costs economy in
  1112. 41:11order to have innovation. But it's just
  1113. 41:13so silly to me because to your point, I
  1114. 41:15love I wrote this down, constraint is
  1115. 41:17the mother of innovation. There will be
  1116. 41:18so much great innovation if we simply
  1117. 41:21aim our economy towards
  1118. 41:23a safe space for for human health and
  1119. 41:25and and the health of other species,
  1120. 41:27that will force us to innovate more
  1121. 41:29quickly. But what we're getting now is
  1122. 41:31just innovation for profit. We see
  1123. 41:34effectively the the degradation of the
  1124. 41:37quality of services
  1125. 41:39in order to get as much money from the
  1126. 41:42the end consumer as possible. That's why
  1127. 41:44you see things like planned
  1128. 41:46obsolescence, of products actually
  1129. 41:48getting worse because it means we have
  1130. 41:50to buy new ones more quickly and that
  1131. 41:51drives more profit for the companies
  1132. 41:53that are producing those products.
  1133. 41:54That's the type of innovation we're
  1134. 41:55seeing.
  1135. 41:56>> Mhm.
  1136. 41:56>> It's not innovation that's actually
  1137. 41:58making anyone's life better. So, I
  1138. 41:59really appreciate you making that point.
  1139. 42:00But you talked about the the two, you
  1140. 42:03know, main areas of solutions. Let's
  1141. 42:06maybe maybe wrap up with a discussion
  1142. 42:08about the political economy of how to
  1143. 42:09make that happen because ultimately I
  1144. 42:12feel like like you said, there's the
  1145. 42:14vested interests and the geopolitics of
  1146. 42:16it. It's a major challenge to making
  1147. 42:18this transition happen. Not only do you
  1148. 42:19have big sectors of the economy that
  1149. 42:22have vested interests in keeping things
  1150. 42:24the way that they are, who are pouring
  1151. 42:25money into politics to keep things the
  1152. 42:27way they are, but you also have
  1153. 42:29uh countries that operate on a model of
  1154. 42:33international competition in order to
  1155. 42:35preserve their power and their ideology.
  1156. 42:37On the geopolitical level, you have this
  1157. 42:39kind of myth of endless competition with
  1158. 42:42China that I hear all the time back in
  1159. 42:44the States between the US and China,
  1160. 42:46Russia and its imperial ambitions. So,
  1161. 42:49how do you
  1162. 42:50uh
  1163. 42:51you know, I'm not asking you to solve
  1164. 42:52the entire world here. I know you're a
  1165. 42:53scientist and not necessarily the the
  1166. 42:55ruler of the world. How do you think
  1167. 42:57about
  1168. 42:58these solutions getting getting adopted
  1169. 43:02in a political economy like this that
  1170. 43:03doesn't seem capable of enacting these
  1171. 43:06transitions? Well,
  1172. 43:08I I'm I'm glad that you made that point
  1173. 43:10that yes, I'm merely an Earth system
  1174. 43:12scientist. So, so why ask this question
  1175. 43:13to me? And but it's a it's it's it's an
  1176. 43:15unfair defense line.
  1177. 43:17I say this just because I think your
  1178. 43:19question is perhaps the most important
  1179. 43:21question we have today. And it's a very
  1180. 43:24frustrating and challenging question
  1181. 43:25because what the planetary boundary
  1182. 43:27science shows, what the tipping point
  1183. 43:29science shows, what all sustainability
  1184. 43:31science shows is that we need more
  1185. 43:35collective action than ever before. We
  1186. 43:37need
  1187. 43:38>> [clears throat]
  1188. 43:39>> we need planetary stewardship. We need
  1189. 43:41to basically recognize
  1190. 43:43that we're such a large world on such a
  1191. 43:45small planet, which is under so much
  1192. 43:47pressure, that we need to manage the
  1193. 43:49whole planet as one collective.
  1194. 43:52And we have that evidence exactly the
  1195. 43:55same time point in history
  1196. 43:57where we have an all-time low in trust
  1197. 44:00and such an inability
  1198. 44:02to work together as a world. So, this is
  1199. 44:05this is such an unfortunate timing with
  1200. 44:09all the geopolitical conflicts in the
  1201. 44:11world. So how do you handle that when we
  1202. 44:14know that we will not get a consensus
  1203. 44:16decision at the global level? We can't
  1204. 44:18even we don't even have the US anymore
  1205. 44:20joining the climate
  1206. 44:22>> Yeah.
  1207. 44:22>> discussions. We have a such a weak uh
  1208. 44:26United Nations Security Council at this
  1209. 44:29at this time step. I see though that
  1210. 44:31there is a way through this, which is
  1211. 44:35not my favorite way, I would have wished
  1212. 44:37that we could have stronger global
  1213. 44:40governance in a democratic, well
  1214. 44:42transparent, and representative way. But
  1215. 44:44the way that I think we need to accept
  1216. 44:47as a as a pragmatic way forward
  1217. 44:50is to create
  1218. 44:52coalitions of the willing
  1219. 44:54that are large enough minorities in the
  1220. 44:56world
  1221. 44:57that can start to really implement the
  1222. 45:01pathways back to the safe operating
  1223. 45:03space
  1224. 45:04and to start communicating that and
  1225. 45:07documenting that journey
  1226. 45:09so that
  1227. 45:10the success that very likely will be
  1228. 45:13generated can be communicated to the
  1229. 45:16world at large. So you create a kind of
  1230. 45:19a FOMO
  1231. 45:20>> Yeah.
  1232. 45:21>> situation at the planetary scale. And
  1233. 45:23can that work? Well, actually when you
  1234. 45:25look historically at large social
  1235. 45:28transformations, I mean abandoning
  1236. 45:30slavery or women's voting rights or how
  1237. 45:34we solved acid rain or how we in the end
  1238. 45:38came to terms with the risks of
  1239. 45:40destroying the stratospheric ozone layer
  1240. 45:42when we signed the Montreal Protocol
  1241. 45:44it was never a consensus decision.
  1242. 45:47>> Mhm.
  1243. 45:48>> It was never a kind of a majority of
  1244. 45:50countries that agreed. It was always a
  1245. 45:52large enough minority that that led the
  1246. 45:56way
  1247. 45:57and and when they became a large enough
  1248. 45:59minority
  1249. 46:01often exceeding 25%
  1250. 46:04then they become such a strong force
  1251. 46:07that they could not be neglected by the
  1252. 46:09passive majority because in the majority
  1253. 46:11one should remember and that is
  1254. 46:13definitely the case when it comes to the
  1255. 46:15unwillingness to move away from oil,
  1256. 46:17coal and gas not all of them are denial
  1257. 46:20skeptics or strong vested interest but
  1258. 46:23they're quite agnostic so they're
  1259. 46:24sitting on the fence
  1260. 46:26and they're betting on two horses at the
  1261. 46:28same time
  1262. 46:29>> Right.
  1263. 46:29>> They're both going renewable but at the
  1264. 46:31same time they're staying on the fossil
  1265. 46:33fuels because you don't really know
  1266. 46:34where the world is heading but because
  1267. 46:37as we've been discussing you and I in
  1268. 46:38this this part because we have so much
  1269. 46:40evidence that indeed we are in a
  1270. 46:43gauntlet one should not underestimate
  1271. 46:45the challenges of going across the hump.
  1272. 46:47I mean after all we've been powering the
  1273. 46:48global economy for 200 years in an
  1274. 46:50unsustainable planet
  1275. 46:52threatening way and now we're shifting
  1276. 46:54away to a new system so
  1277. 46:56it isn't easy it isn't even easy even
  1278. 46:58for the Nordics or for
  1279. 47:00you know
  1280. 47:01a country like Germany it is challenging
  1281. 47:03but once you're through
  1282. 47:05we have so much evidence that the
  1283. 47:08outcomes will make you a winner
  1284. 47:12in terms of prosperity, security
  1285. 47:15equity and more independence. So in
  1286. 47:19social transformations that has always
  1287. 47:21been proven to be the way to get large
  1288. 47:23enough minority to tip over the logic. I
  1289. 47:25mean take take this mobile phone you
  1290. 47:28know when when Steve Jobs showed up the
  1291. 47:29mobile phone for the first time he was a
  1292. 47:31minority
  1293. 47:33but it took just a few years and Nokia
  1294. 47:36collapsed, Motorola collapsed,
  1295. 47:38Blackberry collapsed and
  1296. 47:41Apple came out winning and why? It was a
  1297. 47:43technology that gave a better offer. It
  1298. 47:46was a better offer in the end but it was
  1299. 47:47not a majority. So I think moving along
  1300. 47:51these
  1301. 47:52paths where we try to get
  1302. 47:54large enough coalitions of the willing
  1303. 47:57and and I mentioned this particularly at
  1304. 47:59this moment when you and I meet because
  1305. 48:01I just came from Colombia.
  1306. 48:03And in Colombia for the first time the
  1307. 48:05Santa Marta high-level meeting was held
  1308. 48:09where a coalition of the willing of the
  1309. 48:11countries in the world that want to
  1310. 48:12accelerate the phase out of fossil fuels
  1311. 48:14gathered for the first time. And what
  1312. 48:16happened, which I would argue is very
  1313. 48:19you know potentially promising, is that
  1314. 48:21it was 57 countries.
  1315. 48:24And 57 countries you know, you have 195
  1316. 48:27countries in the world. So this is
  1317. 48:28actually more than 25% of the world's
  1318. 48:31countries gathered. They represent 30%
  1319. 48:33of the global GDP. So you know,
  1320. 48:35significant
  1321. 48:36critical mass.
  1322. 48:38And they
  1323. 48:40agreed to commit to hold hands and
  1324. 48:43collectively start moving away from
  1325. 48:45coal, oil, and gas. Now, if they succeed
  1326. 48:48and really start bending the curve, you
  1327. 48:50could think of a situation already
  1328. 48:51within 5 years where they start getting
  1329. 48:54an absolute decoupling from economic
  1330. 48:56development and planet-damaging fossil
  1331. 48:59fuel emissions.
  1332. 49:01And that this, if we then scientifically
  1333. 49:03can map that journey and start producing
  1334. 49:06syntheses of showing this is the
  1335. 49:08benefits it gives economically,
  1336. 49:10socially, health-wise, security. That
  1337. 49:13can become it's a kind of a new theory
  1338. 49:15of change of trying to come from this as
  1339. 49:18as a you know, David hits Goliath kind
  1340. 49:21of approach. And um
  1341. 49:24again, I don't think that is my desired
  1342. 49:26plan A
  1343. 49:27>> Right.
  1344. 49:28>> because I would have wished that we
  1345. 49:29could be stewards of the entire planet
  1346. 49:31in one step.
  1347. 49:32>> Yeah.
  1348. 49:32>> But I think this is the best we can
  1349. 49:35offer today and I think we have to give
  1350. 49:36that a chance to give a chance of
  1351. 49:39of the coalitions of the willing to
  1352. 49:41start showing that this can tip over in
  1353. 49:44social trajectories that can give
  1354. 49:47multiple benefits and that can be a way
  1355. 49:49of accelerating the process.
  1356. 49:51>> I love that and if they are able to
  1357. 49:54deliver better lives for their citizens
  1358. 49:55as well,
  1359. 49:56>> Exactly.
  1360. 49:56>> then it seems like something that
  1361. 49:58everyone's going to want.
  1362. 49:59>> It becomes that attractor. It's the
  1363. 50:01future you want. It's the modern future
  1364. 50:03you aspire to, and why why would I then
  1365. 50:06go backwards into the future or dig
  1366. 50:08myself deeper into the hole of fossil
  1367. 50:10fuels? So, that I think is is one way of
  1368. 50:13kind of saying that, yes, and back to
  1369. 50:15the scientific diagnostic,
  1370. 50:17we are in danger, but it's not too late
  1371. 50:19to turn this around because the planet,
  1372. 50:21despite all the abuse, is
  1373. 50:23biogeochemically remarkably
  1374. 50:26um forgiving still. So, so, you know,
  1375. 50:29the the window is is closing, but it's
  1376. 50:32not closed yet.
  1377. 50:33>> Well, I hope that there's still time.
  1378. 50:35Well, sounds like there is still time
  1379. 50:36for her to forgive forgive us and for us
  1380. 50:39to turn the ship around, and I really
  1381. 50:40appreciate you sort of ending on that
  1382. 50:42optimistic note. Also, since I'm here, I
  1383. 50:45just want to thank you for a career of
  1384. 50:46amazing work and inspiring not only me,
  1385. 50:48but so many people I've interviewed and
  1386. 50:49so many people who who are who are doing
  1387. 50:51the work of making this transition
  1388. 50:52happen. Thank you, and I I really look
  1389. 50:56forward to this better future that you
  1390. 50:58just described because I do think that
  1391. 51:00that is starting to happen, actually. I
  1392. 51:02am seeing that the countries that are
  1393. 51:03that have made the most progress on the
  1394. 51:06green transition and the the land use
  1395. 51:10transition that you talked about are
  1396. 51:12actually
  1397. 51:13the better places to live in the world,
  1398. 51:15it seems.
  1399. 51:16Coming over here for from the US and
  1400. 51:19taking uh public transportation to get
  1401. 51:21here all the way and being in in like a
  1402. 51:24really beautiful green environment, and
  1403. 51:26uh you know, I'm I'm getting a little
  1404. 51:27taste of what it's like to live in an
  1405. 51:29economy that is actually uh making
  1406. 51:31progress and not going in the wrong
  1407. 51:32direction on on climate, and it feels
  1408. 51:35like
  1409. 51:36just better quality of life, lower
  1410. 51:38stress,
  1411. 51:39uh and it's healthy that the government
  1412. 51:41here isn't, you know, starting wars left
  1413. 51:42and right as well. So, maybe there's
  1414. 51:44something to be said there for
  1415. 51:46uh not only
  1416. 51:48solving the climate crisis but also you
  1417. 51:50know solving some of the other
  1418. 51:51geopolitical problems that that we've
  1419. 51:52created as well. So thank you for your
  1420. 51:54work and thank you for your time.
  1421. 51:56>> No, and thanks for inviting me. Great
  1422. 51:57great.
  1423. 51:58>> To learn more about the conference that
  1424. 52:00Roxstrom mentioned at the end of the
  1425. 52:01episode, the one where 57 countries met
  1426. 52:03in Colombia to decide how to phase out
  1427. 52:05fossil fuels, check out the link in the
  1428. 52:07episode description where you can get
  1429. 52:08information on the next one of those
  1430. 52:10conferences scheduled for next year in
  1431. 52:12Tuvalu. And if you want to follow
  1432. 52:13Roxstrom's work, I've included links to
  1433. 52:14that in the episode description as well.
  1434. 52:16And finally, a reminder that Better
  1435. 52:17Future is an independent podcast that
  1436. 52:19depends on your support. So if you like
  1437. 52:21this conversation and you want to hear
  1438. 52:23more conversations like it, please
  1439. 52:24support us with a paid subscription. If
  1440. 52:26you can't do that, it's also really
  1441. 52:27helpful to give us a five-star rating on
  1442. 52:29your preferred podcast platform and to
  1443. 52:31share this episode with a friend who you
  1444. 52:33think [music] would like it. As always,
  1445. 52:34stay curious, stay hopeful, and I'll see
  1446. 52:36you next time. Ciao.

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