How to increase your trading win-rate (EASY!) — Transcript

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1. 0:00There's a lot of methods to increase
2. 0:01your win rate in your trading. Uh today
3. 0:04I'm going to show you guys one very
4. 0:06simple method you guys can integrate in
5. 0:09probably two different ways. Um and it's
6. 0:12called confluence. Um if you haven't
7. 0:14heard of it, definitely tune in. And
8. 0:16even if you have and know very well how
9. 0:20confluence works, I'm sure these two
10. 0:22methods will additionally help uh with
11. 0:25honestly whatever trading strategy
12. 0:27you're currently using. you can
13. 0:29definitely find a method to help. So,
14. 0:31it's a very versatile tool, this idea of
15. 0:34confluence. So, without further ado,
16. 0:36let's jump into it. All right, guys.
17. 0:38Over the next couple minutes, I'm going
18. 0:39to show you guys exactly how I use
19. 0:41Confluence in my strategy. And then I'm
20. 0:43also going to show you another tool or
21. 0:46resource you can use to with a similar
22. 0:48idea to integrate into your strategy if
23. 0:50you don't like um the way I use it. Um,
24. 0:53and just real quick, if you guys are not
25. 0:55familiar, confluence is the idea of,
26. 0:58let's say, having a high probability
27. 0:59strategy and then taking a a piece of
28. 1:03another strategy or a tool or an
29. 1:05indicator or some other uh trading
30. 1:08resource and integrating that into your
31. 1:10existing strategy to increase the
32. 1:13probability of having a successful trade
33. 1:16or successful strategy. So, if you say,
34. 1:18"Hey, I trade this system. It has an 80%
35. 1:20win rate." Will you add this additional
36. 1:23tool to it to it to where you only take
37. 1:25a trade when not just your existing
38. 1:28strategy tells you to but also this tool
39. 1:30you're integrating that in and then it
40. 1:32can increase your win rate let's say
41. 1:34from 80 to 85% or something like that.
42. 1:37And typically confluence is more of a
43. 1:39simple idea um and how it's actually
44. 1:42applied than like taking two complex
45. 1:44strategies and putting them together
46. 1:46because you know there may never present
47. 1:48an entry point if you have two extremely
48. 1:51complex strategies that both need to be
49. 1:53aligned at the exact same time. This is
50. 1:55more of a broader idea or broader
51. 1:57concept. Okay. So um I'm going to
52. 2:01explain to you guys really quick how I
53. 2:03apply confluence in my strategy. Um, so
54. 2:06for those of you who may not know, uh,
55. 2:08I'm a range trader. Um, so what I mean
56. 2:12by that is, you know, if I'm looking, if
57. 2:14we're looking at like trend or price
58. 2:17structure, right? So you see like an
59. 2:19uptrend and you identify higher highs,
60. 2:21higher lows. If you're more interested
61. 2:23in my actual strategy, I have a video on
62. 2:25that you guys can check out. But, uh,
63. 2:26I'm just going to brush over this real
64. 2:28quick. I'm more keying off the ranges in
65. 2:30price. Okay? So identifying, you know,
66. 2:32swing highs and swing lows and then kind
67. 2:34of trading this trend in between that um
68. 2:38can seem kind of complicated, but it's
69. 2:40not that complicated. Um I I go kind of
70. 2:42go over exactly how I identify those
71. 2:44sort of things. But that's generally the
72. 2:46idea of how I trade. I trade price
73. 2:48action basically. And if I was just
74. 2:50trading that solely, my chart would
75. 2:52literally be completely blank uh with
76. 2:55just candlesticks on it. That's it. But
77. 2:56you see these two lines here. A lot of
78. 2:58you guys know probably what that is. and
79. 2:59I'll show you guys how exactly I apply
80. 3:01that. Um, okay. So, that's my that's my
81. 3:04strategy. So, real quick before we talk
82. 3:06about exactly what it is, like let me
83. 3:09show you guys how I would uh possibly
84. 3:12take a trade. So, like if I'm looking at
85. 3:16a range, technically I'm really keying
86. 3:18off the opening range and things like
87. 3:20that. I identify the candle high, candle
88. 3:22low. Again, if you're really interested
89. 3:23in this, you can check check it out in
90. 3:25one of my prior videos. As soon as I see
91. 3:27price break over, that could signal an
92. 3:30entry point if I'm just looking off of
93. 3:31range, price action, and strategy. And
94. 3:34in this situation, this trade would have
95. 3:35played out really well. We see, you
96. 3:37know, uh about 25 minutes of price
97. 3:40moving up. This is the 5-minute chart.
98. 3:41So, we see about 25 minutes of price
99. 3:43moving up. Um, pretty simple stuff.
100. 3:45Obviously, my strategy is not that
101. 3:47simple, but this is kind of a cliffnotes
102. 3:48version of that. We see this kind of
103. 3:50immediate trend to the upside. And I I
104. 3:52picked an example of what we're seeing
105. 3:54here as something where in a day like
106. 3:56this where confluence really is
107. 3:59important and you you guys will see why.
108. 4:01So in this initial trade um
109. 4:07it would have played out well. Okay. So
110. 4:09but in the reality of how I'm actually
111. 4:11executing on my trade, I have a simple
112. 4:14addition to my strategy that increases
113. 4:17my win win rate. kind of if you think
114. 4:21about it guys like the way I would
115. 4:23describe it is it's less about maybe
116. 4:26finding more wins in a way and it's more
117. 4:29about avoiding bad trades and I know
118. 4:32that sounds kind of weird but it's it's
119. 4:34kind of a mindset I put myself in is
120. 4:37like the confluence helps me avoid bad
121. 4:40trades where if I have less bad trades I
122. 4:42have more winning trades which increase
123. 4:44my win rate but for some reason a lot of
124. 4:46new traders just focus on like how can I
125. 4:49take more trades and win more trades
126. 4:51instead of saying, "Well, how do I avoid
127. 4:53bad trades?" That's more of how I focus
128. 4:55on uh my confluence. And I'll show you
129. 4:59numerous examples where even in this
130. 5:01situation what we're looking at, it
131. 5:03helps me avoid the bad possible trades
132. 5:06on a day like this um where we see price
133. 5:08trend up, right? But there's a lot of
134. 5:10kind of like booby traps for um you
135. 5:14know, traders throughout this day. I'm
136. 5:16sure you can tell. and I'll show you
137. 5:18kind of how I avoid those. So, the first
138. 5:19trade I showed you guys um would look
139. 5:22something like this. And based on my
140. 5:24confluence, it's still a a tradable
141. 5:27outcome. Um this is something that looks
142. 5:30really good. And because the confluence
143. 5:32I look for
144. 5:34is EMA crosses. So, the two EMAs I have
145. 5:38on this chart are the 20 and 50. EMAs
146. 5:42are exponential moving averages. Okay?
147. 5:44It's the average price over a period of
148. 5:47time. All right?
149. 5:50And what I look for in particular is the
150. 5:53crosses. So when the 20 crosses over the
151. 5:5650, that would be considered a bullish
152. 5:58uptrend. And when the 20 crosses under
153. 6:01the 50, that would be considered a
154. 6:03bearish downtrend. Now, where I see a
155. 6:07lot of traders go wrong with EMA trading
156. 6:09is they're just trading off of EMAs. Um,
157. 6:13I think EMAs are less of a strategy and
158. 6:16they're more of an aspect of confluence.
159. 6:19It's a really simple way to identify
160. 6:21trend. I mean, if you really think about
161. 6:23it, guys, like I I kind of tell all the
162. 6:25traders I work with, like
163. 6:27EMAs kind of tell you where the trend is
164. 6:31going seriously based off just like
165. 6:33where they're pointing. And I know that
166. 6:34sounds weird, but like if the EMAs are
167. 6:37pointing up and current price, you know,
168. 6:39is where it is, like trend is up. I know
169. 6:42that sounds weird, but um so with the
170. 6:46confluence aspect, really simply, if the
171. 6:4820 is over the 50, I am only looking for
172. 6:51upside trades. So I'm only looking to
173. 6:54trade upward. That's it. I'm not looking
174. 6:56to trade downward. So what you guys can
175. 6:59see is at no point from market open here
176. 7:01to market close here was I looking at
177. 7:04anything but an upward trade. Okay. So
178. 7:07that is going to eliminate all of these
179. 7:10downward moves really from my kind of
180. 7:13trading um opportunity. Okay. So when
181. 7:18you are trading in what some would
182. 7:21consider a choppy market, right? Or a
183. 7:23choppy day, right? Some of the some
184. 7:24traders I always hear complaining about,
185. 7:26oh, today was choppy, choppy, choppy.
186. 7:29It's usually because you're kind of
187. 7:32getting whipsawed around up and down, up
188. 7:35and down, because you're looking for
189. 7:37opportunities in both directions. If you
190. 7:40can identify a strong probability of
191. 7:43price to move through the day, um, it
192. 7:46helps eliminate a lot of the noise in
193. 7:48the market. what I mean by these
194. 7:50downward moves and I'll show you like
195. 7:52okay
196. 7:54we see price break to the upside based
197. 7:56on this range we see the EMAs
198. 7:59uh showing long so I'm only looking for
199. 8:01an upside trade so this checks all the
200. 8:03boxes I take this trade okay I make some
201. 8:06profit we see price move up over the
202. 8:08next 20 25 minutes that's great okay now
203. 8:14let's imagine
204. 8:16okay I'm still looking at a range range.
205. 8:19And again, I'm not going to go into
206. 8:20heavy heavy detail, but like with my
207. 8:23strategy, like if we see, right, that
208. 8:26was a range, then we see a trend, and
209. 8:28then we're kind of like here at a period
210. 8:29of time, right? So, we see our high, our
211. 8:32low, our higher high, uh, higher low,
212. 8:34and we're kind of trading in between. We
213. 8:36know what happens. We know price rolls
214. 8:38over. But my point is is like if I'm
215. 8:40trading a range, right, I'll identify
216. 8:42I'll say, "Okay, well, we have our high
217. 8:43and low here, and we're kind of setting
218. 8:45up." And that may look like this, right?
219. 8:49So if we're looking like this,
220. 8:53and
221. 8:55you know, we're seeing price set up like
222. 8:57this, I'm only looking for price to
223. 8:59break out again and move to the upside
224. 9:01for an upward trade. Okay, that's all
225. 9:03I'm looking for. If price breaks below
226. 9:05in a normal kind of range strategy,
227. 9:08you're generally taking it both ways. I
228. 9:10have no problem trading to the downside,
229. 9:12but I do have a problem when my EMAs are
230. 9:15pointing up.
231. 9:16So in this situation, we actually see
232. 9:18price push down, break below it, even
233. 9:21breaks below the opening price. Like by
234. 9:23all means, looks pretty pretty dog on
235. 9:26bearish. I mean, depends, you know,
236. 9:28exactly what your strategies or what
237. 9:30your trading is, but like I don't know,
238. 9:32a lot of traders I know like trading
239. 9:33trend lines and stuff like trend line
240. 9:36break like this looks generally bearish.
241. 9:38We see aggressive downward pressure. I'm
242. 9:42not going to take it. We have the EMA
243. 9:44still pointing up as far as excuse me,
244. 9:47we have the EMA still crossed to the
245. 9:48upside. We do see the EMA starting to
246. 9:50point down, but that's normal because we
247. 9:52see price down. So, I'm not going to
248. 9:54take this trade. I'm going to watch. I'm
249. 9:57going to wait.
250. 9:59Okay. And we start to see price rally
251. 10:01back,
252. 10:03completely rally back, completely change
253. 10:05the narrative. Okay. And what I might do
254. 10:10is I may establish that, hey, okay, this
255. 10:12is my new low. We have our high, we have
256. 10:13our low. We see price trading between
257. 10:17and there's still opportunity throughout
258. 10:18the day.
259. 10:20There's another opportunity as price
260. 10:22pushes up again for the next, you know,
261. 10:2520 25 minutes. And the funny thing is is
262. 10:27on top of that, you know, like let's
263. 10:29say, okay, here's my entry, we see how
264. 10:33close
265. 10:34price respects that level that's created
266. 10:38off of our range, right? So, it's
267. 10:40holding our range. And then, you know,
268. 10:43we don't have an insanely huge pushup,
269. 10:45but we do see a really nice pushup again
270. 10:48over 20 25 minutes. Price pushes up.
271. 10:52Okay. And the confluence is what saved
272. 10:55us.
273. 10:57That cross to the upside, price moving
274. 10:59up. We did not take a trade to the
275. 11:01downside where we chase this uh I don't
276. 11:04even want to call extended move, but
277. 11:05that big push down. We're not chasing
278. 11:07it. We're letting it set up properly. it
279. 11:09actually reverses and then price pushes
280. 11:12up and breaks to the upside and and
281. 11:15keeps going there for a period of time.
282. 11:17So, you know, of that whole move, you
283. 11:19know, we're looking at something like
284. 11:20this pretty nice move. Um,
285. 11:26so
286. 11:29at what could have been, let's say,
287. 11:32three trade opportunities,
288. 11:34the confluence aspect of only trading
289. 11:37directionally with the EMAs saved us
290. 11:40from a bad trade and then we had
291. 11:43backtoback good trades. We had a good
292. 11:45trade in the morning here. We avoided
293. 11:48this bad false signal, false breakout,
294. 11:51whatever you want to call it. And then
295. 11:53we were able to trade again on this
296. 11:55quote unquote third setup, you could
297. 11:57call it. Good. Okay.
298. 12:01All right. I'm going to brush over um
299. 12:04real quick another aspect. Uh and I
300. 12:08encourage you to back test this, guys. I
301. 12:10encourage you to back test the EMA
302. 12:12strategy. The problem is if you go
303. 12:14online and you look up EMA strategy, all
304. 12:16you're going to find is like bounce
305. 12:18plays off of EMAs. So, what I mean by
306. 12:20that is like you're just going to see
307. 12:23people who are like trying to buy dips
308. 12:24on like the 20 EMA and or buy rejections
309. 12:28off the 20 EMA and stuff like that. And
310. 12:30sometimes they work, sometimes they
311. 12:31don't. Um, but you're going to try to
312. 12:34see like people trying to buy or sell
313. 12:36off bounces or rejections off EMAs.
314. 12:40you're going to try to see or find stuff
315. 12:41like that or you're going to find people
316. 12:44solely solely solely just trading off
317. 12:46the cross and the just crossing honestly
318. 12:49sometimes isn't bad but it can be late
319. 12:51sometimes as well. Uh like here's a
320. 12:54really good cross and then we see price
321. 12:55move to the upside. Um, crossing can be
322. 12:58nice, but it's not the end all be all
323. 13:00because, you know, in examples like
324. 13:02this, you kind of see cross down, cross
325. 13:04up, cross down, but that's where your
326. 13:07confluence comes into play where you
327. 13:09have the opening range, which is kind of
328. 13:12avoiding you from taking a bad trade,
329. 13:14right? So, your opening range may look
330. 13:15something like this.
331. 13:18Okay? And then you see all this crossing
332. 13:20happening. You're not trading just off
333. 13:22the crossing and you're not just trading
334. 13:23off the opening range breakout until the
335. 13:25EMAs cross to the upside and then price
336. 13:28also breaks out at the same time and you
337. 13:30have this really nice trade setup right
338. 13:32through here. You have this really nice,
339. 13:35you know, 15 20 minutes of price moving
340. 13:37up. So, um, what I encourage you guys to
341. 13:41do is back test the EMA strategy. And
342. 13:43the EMA strategy, the beauty of it is a
343. 13:46lot of times it can be applied to
344. 13:48honestly almost whatever strategy you're
345. 13:50currently using. Whether it's fair value
346. 13:52gaps, opening range breakout, or just
347. 13:55range break, Darvis box, whatever it is,
348. 13:58um you can apply it to the strategy
349. 14:00you're you're generally using.
350. 14:03All right. And then the last aspect of
351. 14:07confluence I want to show you guys is
352. 14:09similar to EMAs. Um, but you guys may
353. 14:12like this one a little bit better. Um,
354. 14:15it's actually the whole sweet indicator.
355. 14:18Um, this one is on Trading View
356. 14:22and this one is generally the same idea
357. 14:24of EMAs to a certain degree. It is a
358. 14:27little bit different.
359. 14:29Um but basically um it's the same
360. 14:32concept that you're only looking to take
361. 14:35trades to the upside when the trend is
362. 14:38green, the trend is up and only looking
363. 14:41to take downside when the trend is red.
364. 14:43Um the problem is is the whole suite is
365. 14:46a little more let's call it aggressive
366. 14:47than the EMAs. So it's going to show you
367. 14:50signals faster. Okay? Now you might like
368. 14:53that, you might not. The way I like it
369. 14:54is I like to be more conservative in my
370. 14:56trading. I like those em those slower
371. 14:59EMAs. They help me avoid taking bad
372. 15:01trades. The pro of that is I take less
373. 15:04bad trades. The con of that is I miss
374. 15:06more good trades. Possibly I can miss
375. 15:08more of the good trades. The whole suite
376. 15:10is kind of the inverse of that. It's
377. 15:12more aggressive. It's quicker. It's
378. 15:13snappier. You're going to have again
379. 15:17double false signal. So maybe you have
380. 15:19false signal in the strategy you're
381. 15:20using and then also with the confluence.
382. 15:23Um, but the benefit of that is you're
383. 15:25going to have more opportunities, more
384. 15:26trades. Now, on the flip side of that,
385. 15:29uh, if you go to the settings here, you
386. 15:31can adjust the length and the length
387. 15:33multiplier. You can even adjust the
388. 15:35multiplier, but like if I bring this up
389. 15:37to like let's say 75,
390. 15:41we can see that um, it eliminates more
391. 15:44of those false signals um, and kind of
392. 15:47thins price out. And we can see that we
393. 15:50have much more like smoother sort of
394. 15:52opportunities. Um, so like a great
395. 15:55example here is like if you were looking
396. 15:59at like this is a range right here. Like
397. 16:01this is like after hours like if you're
398. 16:04looking at a range like this, you do
399. 16:06have a breakdown on the range where
400. 16:09price is breaking below the range and
401. 16:11then you but you we see green trend and
402. 16:14then actually price. So we know we're
403. 16:16not taking this trade. We don't have the
404. 16:18confluence. We have mixed signals. We're
405. 16:20waiting. We're waiting. Price comes up,
406. 16:22breaks over. We also have green trend.
407. 16:24And then boom, price basically, you
408. 16:27know, shoots up super aggressive. So,
409. 16:29we're avoiding
410. 16:31in this example using that whole suite.
411. 16:33We're avoiding this trade, that bad
412. 16:36signal, downward trade. We're taking the
413. 16:38good signal and boom, we see which one
414. 16:41actually sticks, right? Which one
415. 16:43actually plays out and plays out well.
416. 16:47So, um, that's it here, guys. Um, just
417. 16:52as a quick reminder,
418. 16:54in this video description below, I'll
419. 16:57put a link to where you can schedule a
420. 16:59one-on-one directly with me. What we'll
421. 17:01cover is we'll cover blind spots in your
422. 17:03trading. We'll also cover aspects of my
423. 17:05strategy. I also answer any questions
424. 17:07you guys got for me. You can schedule a
425. 17:10one-on-one call directly with me at the
426. 17:12link in my bio.
427. 17:14And um we'll cover everything trading,
428. 17:16any questions you got or if you got no
429. 17:18questions, I'll cover aspects of my my
430. 17:20strategy and we'll talk about things you
431. 17:22may struggle with and need help with. So
432. 17:24go ahead, book that call and until next
433. 17:26time, I'll see you guys later. Peace.