How to Build a Sports Betting Model for NBA Against the Spread and Totals (SUPER EASY) — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:00all right YouTube how you doing welcome
- 0:02back to the channel before we even jump
- 0:04into this video I don't do this often
- 0:06but even before we jump into I'm ask you
- 0:08guys to hit that subscribe button and
- 0:10like the video a lot went into this
- 0:12video and we're really peeling back the
- 0:14curtain opening up and hoping to provide
- 0:17some help and support to you guys as you
- 0:20go through your sports betting in this
- 0:22NBA season or for years to come if you
- 0:25pay attention to this you're going to
- 0:26learn a lot from it the goal of this
- 0:28video is for me to show you guys where
- 0:30to start when putting together a model
- 0:33so I'm going to kind of walk you through
- 0:34a base model um something that I've done
- 0:37and the goal is for you guys to really
- 0:38be able to take what's shown in this
- 0:40video add to it Tinker with it and
- 0:42become successful Sports betters
- 0:45obviously a lot of this goes into sports
- 0:47betting a lot of people like to rely on
- 0:49this some people like to rely on their
- 0:51big old gut but when it comes down to it
- 0:53the analytics are going to be the most
- 0:55important part of your sports predicting
- 0:58processing Sports gambling process I
- 1:00think we can all agree on that it's one
- 1:02of the only gambling type things that
- 1:04you can actually find an edge on
- 1:06spinning a roulette wheel no Edge you're
- 1:08playing Blackjack it's really up to what
- 1:09card comes out next sports betting
- 1:12you're you're going to be able to find
- 1:13some edges you're going to be able to
- 1:14find some discrepancies and some things
- 1:16that you can take um action on and
- 1:18really capitalize on an opportunity as
- 1:21you guys know the lines in sport setting
- 1:23can be changed by a lot of people
- 1:25betting on one team or a lot of money
- 1:27going in on one team and sports books
- 1:29react AC in but what we're going to do
- 1:31is take all the noise out of it and
- 1:32really get down to the Brass tax about
- 1:34what this game spread should be or total
- 1:37should be again this video we're
- 1:38focusing on totals because it is
- 1:40probably the most simple to explain but
- 1:42if you guys want me to dive into you
- 1:44know we have spread models we have
- 1:45player prop models that we work really
- 1:47hard on if you guys want to see
- 1:48something like that let me know in the
- 1:49comments down below but again ideally
- 1:52what we're doing here is kind of giving
- 1:53you the starting point we're going to
- 1:55walk through it completely and then you
- 1:57guys can Tinker with it and make it what
- 2:00you want and find success in it so right
- 2:02now what we have is something that looks
- 2:04like this we're going to build something
- 2:05together that looks a little bit better
- 2:07maybe easier but I've built this a long
- 2:09time ago it's hard to change the format
- 2:11now but uh you can see as we go through
- 2:13we have each and every game on the NBA
- 2:15slate tonight and we have a projected
- 2:17score and projected total for these
- 2:19games now it's not as simple as that
- 2:21once we look at here we'll unhide these
- 2:23rows we have so many stats dumped into
- 2:27this model and we're not going to go
- 2:28through each and every one of these now
- 2:30but we're going to go through a decent
- 2:31amount of them so you guys can learn and
- 2:33um ideally do this yourself I can't
- 2:35stress that enough so if we jump into
- 2:38this too this is how I kind of have it
- 2:39spit out to me on the day-to-day basis
- 2:41we have pretty much you know if it's not
- 2:43a big enough difference or big enough
- 2:44margin we we have it formatted to tell
- 2:47us to push um and then we also have
- 2:49where our plays would be tonight so all
- 2:51I would have to do in the morning is
- 2:52update these lines and ideally we're
- 2:54seeing you know it's given us five plays
- 2:56that we can spit out we've tracked it so
- 2:58far this NBA season we we're tracking
- 3:00just about every single day um you
- 3:02notice we started on the 25th that's
- 3:04because we want enough data to go into
- 3:06this so you can't really trust always
- 3:07last year's data roster changes injuries
- 3:10all that stuff so we waited about a week
- 3:11before implementing this but you can see
- 3:13as of right now 19 and 10 on the season
- 3:16this is the daily average for what
- 3:18percent we are so it's not the
- 3:19aggregated amount it's just on a daily
- 3:21average we're looking at just about a 60
- 3:235% win rate and then that kind of rings
- 3:26true when you look at our total um on
- 3:28the season here we're not and five in
- 3:30spreads and 10 and five on totals now
- 3:33this is just the models data right we
- 3:36don't play every single thing on the
- 3:37model cuz like I said it does come down
- 3:39to you know feeling like you have a gut
- 3:41feeling on the game you know this is
- 3:43just a piece of it it's a good place to
- 3:44start but um I just wanted you guys to
- 3:46see that there actually is winning
- 3:48involved here if I took my brain out of
- 3:50it took my heart out of it and just
- 3:52followed the model it would be
- 3:53profitable it doesn't always work like
- 3:55that obviously you're going to want to
- 3:57um you know make plays based on other
- 3:59things you know and stuff like that or
- 4:00feelings you have but I do want to just
- 4:02get out there and say that but um yeah
- 4:04so we pretty much want to end with
- 4:06something that maybe looks like this
- 4:07we'll focus on one that you can just
- 4:09make one game and you can edit these two
- 4:12team names and get the spread we'll
- 4:14worry about this part where it spits it
- 4:15all back out of you and everything like
- 4:17that in another video cuz there's going
- 4:18to be a lot of formulas and a lot of
- 4:20things that you guys will need to know
- 4:21and probably rewatch any parts of this
- 4:23video If you're not an Excel Wiz we're
- 4:25doing this in Google Sheets but if
- 4:26you're not an Excel Wiz or stuff like
- 4:27that some of this can be confusing but
- 4:29but honestly guys if you sink your teeth
- 4:31into it and set your mind to it too it
- 4:33can be really really fun to get a good
- 4:35result so just to get you just so you
- 4:37know what to expected here we got a
- 4:38couple tabs here that are Auto imported
- 4:40all of these numbers are coming in I'm
- 4:43going to tell you what most of them are
- 4:44doing and everything like that but all
- 4:47of these are coming in and this is
- 4:48definitely a lot guys this is just for
- 4:51um some of the spread and total when we
- 4:53look at player props we have even more
- 4:55here even more numbers so I'll show you
- 4:56how to set up Imports like that and how
- 4:58to make it pretty simple for you guys
- 5:00that you don't have to touch it on a
- 5:01day-to-day basis it's really you know
- 5:02moving that big boulder to start the to
- 5:05start the damn thing but then all of a
- 5:06sudden you guys will be able to do this
- 5:08yourself so let's start this like I said
- 5:11right we want to kind of be able to plug
- 5:12in okay there's two games tonight what
- 5:16are the um what are the lines or What's
- 5:19the total and what should be the total
- 5:22cuz that is truly the goal we're trying
- 5:23to figure out what this total of the
- 5:26game how many points are going to be
- 5:27scored in this game based on the numbers
- 5:30not based on what the bookmakers think
- 5:32not based on you know what your bookie
- 5:34and his site or her site uh and what
- 5:36Vegas thinks right what based on the
- 5:39true numbers when you Boggle it down
- 5:41what should the total of this game uh
- 5:44what should it be so we're going to get
- 5:46into it so this will be sort of the
- 5:48column that we look at here this will be
- 5:49the stats column okay um and I'm just
- 5:51making this simple you guys can
- 5:53obviously format this however you want
- 5:56um but uh here we'll do we'll do away
- 5:58team and and home team okay and then I
- 6:01like to keep this column here because we
- 6:03might be combining or taking some
- 6:04averages or something like that so just
- 6:06keep that in mind but uh first off let's
- 6:09start with what's probably the most
- 6:11simple way to get us an idea of how many
- 6:14points are going to be scored right
- 6:15points per game now I don't just do
- 6:17points per game we're going to be
- 6:19looking at points per game this year
- 6:22points per game home or away I guess I
- 6:25should say home away
- 6:31[Music]
- 6:33and then we're also going to be looking
- 6:34at points per game last three now a
- 6:37great site and I can put these links in
- 6:39the description a great site to get
- 6:41these from is going to be
- 6:43teamrankings.com now again we're not
- 6:45cutting this video we're not editing it
- 6:46it might be a little messy but on
- 6:48teamrankings.com this updates every
- 6:50single day you can get new um updates
- 6:52and everything like that so we're going
- 6:53to go to Stats we're going to team stats
- 6:54here on the
- 6:58right and we're going to look at scoring
- 7:00that's where we're going to get points
- 7:01per game right but it's not as simple as
- 7:03that just yet remember when I showed you
- 7:06guys this and how much data goes into
- 7:08that we got to set this up first so this
- 7:10is our main screen this is where we're
- 7:12going to get the projected total spit
- 7:13out at us correct so let's make another
- 7:15tab down here I know you guys can't see
- 7:17this so I'll move my camera for now
- 7:19let's make another tab down here and
- 7:22we're going to call this one data I know
- 7:25that may be off the screen but right
- 7:27here guys we're making another tab
- 7:28called data and we we have our Excel
- 7:30here the formula it's a very simple
- 7:32formula to use but what we want right
- 7:34now is right um NBA team points per game
- 7:37I like to give headers so if we need to
- 7:39refer back to it later we can but the
- 7:42formula is really really simple it truly
- 7:44is simple here and all we're going to do
- 7:46is go in here and do uh equals import
- 7:49and then we're going to scroll here
- 7:51import
- 7:52HTML we're going to go over to this team
- 7:54stats we're going to go to points per
- 7:56game and this is what's amazing about
- 7:58this guys all you have to do is copy and
- 8:00paste the URL let me see if I can make
- 8:02sure that this is fitting on the screen
- 8:06here so you guys could see
- 8:15it oh boy I I told you this would be a
- 8:19little messy didn't I there we go you
- 8:21guys can now see pretty much everything
- 8:23that is running here so we're going to
- 8:24take this URL copy it okay head over to
- 8:28our import
- 8:30quote paste
- 8:32quote comma and now this is where you
- 8:35can pick either list or table you're
- 8:36always going to want table when doing
- 8:38something like this so you're going to
- 8:39do quote
- 8:40table end quote comma zero you might
- 8:44have to do one you might have to do two
- 8:46the reason we can do zero is because on
- 8:48this site that number at the end of our
- 8:51formula is saying what table on this
- 8:53page do you want us to reference there's
- 8:56only one table on this page so one or
- 8:58zero would do the trick but once we
- 9:00press enter you'll see what we got here
- 9:02boom that is the table that we're
- 9:04looking at only in Excel form or Google
- 9:08Sheets form okay so we're going to head
- 9:10back to this tab
- 9:12now and again when I when I set it up so
- 9:15I use abbreviation so we have a whole
- 9:17another sheet where we really try to
- 9:19link up team name and abbreviation so if
- 9:21you look at this cuz we're going to be
- 9:22pointing to this at some point on my
- 9:25formula or my um my true model Memphis
- 9:28equals me so I have a bunch of formulas
- 9:30to make sure anytime Memphis is set it
- 9:32also means mm I don't want to bore you
- 9:35guys with that I think that that's
- 9:36something that you know would be fun for
- 9:37you guys if you want to really dig deep
- 9:39and try and figure that out yourself but
- 9:41for now we're going to make this as
- 9:42simple as possible um for us to be able
- 9:44to Plug and Play Each game that we are
- 9:47interested in so let's uh let's take a
- 9:49game that's actually going on tonight if
- 9:52we go to vssi and matchups here go to
- 9:54NBA uh lines and scores this is another
- 9:57great tool that I actually have within
- 9:58our field so you know guys always keep
- 10:01that in mind um and and make sure you do
- 10:03check that out but uh here we go this is
- 10:06what's a good game to use maybe the the
- 10:07Pacers this might be a good one here cuz
- 10:09it's um eight and a half let's see good
- 10:12game here I like this actually Toronto
- 10:14and Atlanta so the away team is
- 10:17Atlanta so we're going to plug this
- 10:21in and Toronto because why we're using
- 10:24those names is because in this we know
- 10:27that this is the uh um this is the
- 10:30abbreviation that they use so if we
- 10:31wanted to do OKC we' do Oak City and
- 10:34that type of thing but we have Toronto
- 10:36and we have where is Atlanta here
- 10:39Atlanta just making sure they're both on
- 10:41the board which they are so we have
- 10:43these two teams right so points per game
- 10:46uh excuse me this should actually be up
- 10:48here how about
- 10:51that because those are not their points
- 10:53per game this year but um okay so now
- 10:55we're going to do some vlookups if
- 10:57you're not familiar with v lookups all
- 10:58that is is going to be saying this cell
- 11:00is going to equal um whatever is on this
- 11:04tab based on looking at what is entered
- 11:07into this cell so we're going to do uh
- 11:09vlookup and again I'm not going to dig
- 11:11into what a vlookup is or what these
- 11:14Imports are I hope the formulas are good
- 11:16enough for you guys if you want to just
- 11:17watch it back and and follow that's
- 11:19probably the best way to do it if you
- 11:20want to know exactly what a v lookup is
- 11:22best way to explain it maybe watch a
- 11:24different Excel video but we're going to
- 11:25do vlookup and up here we're going to
- 11:27make sure we are targeting B 2 comma so
- 11:31we're targeting B2 what table are we
- 11:33going to be looking at we're going to be
- 11:35looking at this table and it's going to
- 11:36be this colum we're going to start with
- 11:38team and then we're going to get
- 11:402022 stats so we're going to go all the
- 11:43way down here and highlight everything
- 11:45for this you can go even deeper it's not
- 11:47going to mess it up just to make sure if
- 11:48they decided to expand and add multiple
- 11:50NBA teams that they would be captured
- 11:53there but not that they're ever really
- 11:54going to so um perfect now we have this
- 11:57and you're going to do comma 2 which
- 11:59because you're looking at the second
- 12:01column in the table you just created
- 12:03this is the table you are creating it's
- 12:05a subset of the table we have comma 2
- 12:07comma zero because you don't want it to
- 12:09return anything if it doesn't have an
- 12:11exact match okay now look at this points
- 12:13per game for Atlanta
- 12:16117.0 points this season okay and if we
- 12:19look if we want to fact check Atlanta
- 12:21has scored boom right here 117.0 points
- 12:24per game this season now it' be pretty
- 12:27simple now you're like okay well that's
- 12:28how many points at land is score right
- 12:30not quite Atlanta is also the away team
- 12:31tonight so what we're going to do is
- 12:32similar we're going to do the V lookup
- 12:35based on that Atlanta box we're going to
- 12:37go to data we're going to do the same
- 12:38thing only this time we're scrolling all
- 12:40the way over to and you're going to want
- 12:41to count this so 2 3 4 five six
- 12:44highlight them all comma six because it
- 12:47was the sixth column that we're looking
- 12:48at here zero because we don't want any
- 12:51um results if it does not find a match
- 12:54and actually points per game here
- 12:55Atlanta has scored 123 points on the
- 12:59road this season you guys see where I'm
- 13:01getting here we're going to continue to
- 13:02do it if you do want to fast forward a
- 13:04little bit that is totally fine I told
- 13:05you this is probably going to be a
- 13:06longer video um and uncut but I do want
- 13:09to let you guys know that if you get
- 13:10this that's pretty much what we're going
- 13:12to be doing a lot of but uh I urge you
- 13:14to stick with me in case I think of
- 13:15anything um to that that kind of jumps
- 13:17out here but points per game last three
- 13:19we're going to do another V look up here
- 13:22to Atlanta once again and obviously if
- 13:24you know Excel and you know how you can
- 13:25kind of copy this V lookup to multiple
- 13:27things and just change the column by
- 13:29means do it I'm trying to keep it simple
- 13:30for people that may not know so we're
- 13:32looking at the points per game the last
- 13:34three here which is right here so we're
- 13:36going to take that that's the third
- 13:37column boom all right so there we go
- 13:40points per game last three now what I'll
- 13:42do here because um it's going to be
- 13:46called a weighted average but I like to
- 13:48call this column the average SL um combo
- 13:51and this one will be the weight right so
- 13:53what we're going to do here and we're
- 13:54going to get these numbers for Toronto
- 13:56shortly as well in fact we can just take
- 13:58this formula as long as we make sure
- 14:01there are dollar signs in front of the
- 14:02letters and numbers here so that the
- 14:04vlookup does not change we can take this
- 14:07and just move it over here and now we'll
- 14:09have those numbers for Toronto if you if
- 14:11that does if that's too fast for you I
- 14:13can't help you there but you can go one
- 14:14by one like I just did um for the other
- 14:16ones for Toronto too if you want to keep
- 14:18it slow but um so what we'll do here is
- 14:21take these averages so just if we wanted
- 14:23to uh to to take how many points per
- 14:26game um you know each of these teams
- 14:29score together we could do something
- 14:30like this I'm going to get a little bit
- 14:31more advanced cuz I think it's better
- 14:32but you know average as a formula you
- 14:34could do this and based on that you
- 14:36know1 points if we were to average these
- 14:39two together that isn't exactly how I
- 14:41want to do this so we're going to get
- 14:42into another metric here which is going
- 14:45to be this exact same format only we're
- 14:47going to be looking at opponents points
- 14:49per game right which makes a lot of
- 14:51sense now that we think about it okay so
- 14:53we looked at the points per game they're
- 14:54going to score but how many points do
- 14:57they let up on a night toight average
- 15:00both home and away this year and the
- 15:03last three you can reference back to um
- 15:06this team ranking site which again I'll
- 15:07put this in the description this is an
- 15:08amazing amazing site to use but you go
- 15:11to team stats you can go to scoring
- 15:12defense opponents points per game now
- 15:15what do we have to do here we have this
- 15:17table but we need a new table so we're
- 15:20going to head over here and do opponent
- 15:22team points per game I like to just copy
- 15:26this this uh this um formula here and
- 15:30edit the URL so make sure you guys do
- 15:32edit it because you don't want to copy
- 15:33it over and think that this is the
- 15:34opponent's points per game it's not we
- 15:36want to get the new URL for it we're
- 15:38going to plug this in to where the URL
- 15:40sits here we plug this in it's going to
- 15:42take a second to load and boom now we're
- 15:44looking at opponent's points per game
- 15:46okay so we're going to head back to here
- 15:48and we're going to be looking at Atlanta
- 15:50again so we're going to do another
- 15:50vlookup and this is all a lot of V look
- 15:53up in guys um but it is really worth it
- 15:55if you do learn it so vook up to Atlanta
- 15:57we're going to head over here one two
- 16:00that's how many columns we're looking at
- 16:01scroll down a little bit in case there's
- 16:02expansions uh two and zero boom that's
- 16:05how many points per game Atlanta has
- 16:07been letting up if you want to fact
- 16:08check it let's find Atlanta
- 16:24[Music]
- 16:29could dump this down here obviously
- 16:30you're getting the same number but what
- 16:31we're going to do is edit what table
- 16:33it's looking at cuz it's going to be the
- 16:35same number of columns they're still the
- 16:37away team so we're highlighting
- 16:41um getting this entire column making
- 16:44sure we're at the away and then boom cuz
- 16:46it's going to be the six so if that
- 16:47helps might be a little bit easier um
- 16:50then you can copy that down and actually
- 16:52just look at up here you see that it's
- 16:54the third column we're looking at for
- 16:55last three so we can
- 16:57do uh whoopsies we could do
- 17:00three um all right and now this looks a
- 17:04little funky right kind of like oh
- 17:05what's going on here why is it why is it
- 17:07the same number now we can go and and uh
- 17:09make sure that their last three and home
- 17:12games are the same I'm assuming it's
- 17:13because they've played three home games
- 17:15in their last three potentially but
- 17:17let's take a peek so Atlanta 116 and
- 17:20then away is also 116 sorry I said home
- 17:23earlier but meant away so that is still
- 17:26working it is correct there um and guys
- 17:29you want to make sure that whatever data
- 17:30table you're looking at which is the
- 17:31purple on your screen it does have the
- 17:33dollar signs a quick way to do that is
- 17:34by pressing F4 when clicked in to the
- 17:37formula that's just going to make it so
- 17:38you can move this uh formula around and
- 17:40the V lookup isn't going to totally
- 17:41change so uh let's do what we did before
- 17:44dump this in and uh it's referencing
- 17:46Toronto now so now this is where it gets
- 17:49kind of cool right so what we're going
- 17:51to do is pretty much take um and I guess
- 17:54we'll make
- 17:56this um pretty pretty pretty
- 17:59straightforward um the weight I maybe
- 18:01I'll wait to show you guys in a
- 18:02different video cuz that's pretty much
- 18:04just saying oh we want to prioritize
- 18:06their last three over their home whatnot
- 18:08as we dig into this maybe that'll work
- 18:10but this could be the easiest way for me
- 18:12to do this um and you know without
- 18:14showing you guys everything and boring
- 18:15you guys because you want to factor in
- 18:17Pace you want to factor in um turnovers
- 18:21offensive rebounds there's so many stats
- 18:23that can go into this this is just kind
- 18:25of the basics um so what I'm about to
- 18:28build to get this number I totally
- 18:30wouldn't recommend I would love and
- 18:32encourage you guys to kind of take this
- 18:33upon yourself and use this team ranking
- 18:36site and dump in stuff like that um to
- 18:38make sure that you feel like you should
- 18:41be getting um you know the the right
- 18:43numbers and always always test yourself
- 18:46and record yourself um and keep your
- 18:48record I should say uh like I said so
- 18:50let's look into this we're going to do
- 18:53Atlanta projected score right so what
- 18:56we're going to do here
- 18:59is take what they've done and what
- 19:02Toronto has let up and just to a simple
- 19:05average again this is super super simple
- 19:07but you're going to highlight
- 19:09these and and these and you're going to
- 19:12get a number here so projected score for
- 19:15Atlanta is 112 we can we can highlight
- 19:18this just so we keep it there
- 19:21112.8 okay that's based on Toronto's
- 19:23defense and Atlanta's success here home
- 19:26away all that stuff then we're going to
- 19:29look at
- 19:32Toronto's projected score you see how
- 19:35simple this is right so we're going to
- 19:37take another
- 19:38average we're going to take what
- 19:40Toronto's been doing and what Atlanta's
- 19:43been letting up and boom we got
- 19:46ourselves a projected score on the game
- 19:50here oh boy we went to a percent by
- 19:52accident so we got ourselves a projected
- 19:55score on the game
- 19:58now I guess the simplest way to do this
- 20:02would be uh projected
- 20:04spread and again please dump way more
- 20:07into this but you're going to do um
- 20:11because oh because you're looking at
- 20:13negative would be good for the home team
- 20:14you're going to do the away team minus
- 20:16the home team here and your projected
- 20:18spread would be it should be Toronto
- 20:21plus 3.4 okay and then a projected
- 20:27total is going to be
- 20:29a sum of those
- 20:34two so now you got 3.4 per for a
- 20:37projected total and
- 20:4022.2 for a projected spread if you want
- 20:42to do an actual spread here like what
- 20:45Vegas
- 20:46has and then an actual total for what
- 20:49Vegas has we can look here we're looking
- 20:51at this game right now it's a minus 2
- 20:53and A2 point spread for Toronto so minus
- 20:572.5 and the total is what are we looking
- 21:00at here total is 2222 so even right
- 21:04there we were pretty spot on with this
- 21:07simple simple formula but um one one
- 21:09easy whoopsies we're going crazy here
- 21:11one easy way of doing this and having it
- 21:13spit out with you would be the I like to
- 21:17do this just so it's easy for me you
- 21:18guys can don't have to but the spread
- 21:20play the the total
- 21:25play um and what that would be would be
- 21:28an if statement and if actually I can
- 21:29probably just do it out for you guys so
- 21:31it's pretty easy so what we're going to
- 21:33have is um spread
- 21:37difference total difference right and
- 21:41what that's going to be is our spread
- 21:43minus what the uh actual Vegas spread is
- 21:48and then the total is going to be our
- 21:51total minus what the Vegas total is So
- 21:54the difference here is a
- 21:565.9 Point margin in this game if we were
- 21:59using this this says that Toronto should
- 22:02be 3 and 1/2 Point underdogs but they
- 22:05are 2 and a half Point favorites so the
- 22:07value you identify if you're using this
- 22:10model and again don't recommend using
- 22:11something this simple but technically we
- 22:13should be going with Atlanta just based
- 22:16on the numbers here because technically
- 22:18they should be three and a half Point
- 22:20favorites but Toronto is 2.5 here two
- 22:24and a half Point favored so what's going
- 22:25on there for the total I would identify
- 22:27this as some something that we probably
- 22:29wouldn't roll with just because minus. 3
- 22:33is not enough I guess if you really
- 22:35wanted to factually say trust this model
- 22:38type of thing you would take the under
- 22:39because it's supposed to round down to
- 22:4122 and a half or 22 Which is less than
- 22:4422 and a half so the plays coming out of
- 22:47this would be Atlanta plus 2.5 and maybe
- 22:51the under okay and then you guys you
- 22:53know what the great thing about this is
- 22:55I didn't mention but if you wanted to go
- 22:57and look at other games
- 22:59like this Detroit vers Milwaukee one
- 23:01right it's going to be tough for me to
- 23:02spell Milwaukee but you can just update
- 23:05these names and you're going to get a
- 23:07whole set of uh you're going to get a I
- 23:10thought it was going to be tough for me
- 23:11to spell um Milwaukee not Detroit you
- 23:14spell Detroit right you put it in there
- 23:15you make this watch now I'm going to
- 23:17spell Milwaukee correctly and you get
- 23:18their numbers too so this one right now
- 23:21the actual spread is um the actual
- 23:24spread is U Milwaukee minus 13 right
- 23:29and the total is what do we have here
- 23:31the total is
- 23:3324 and a half okay 24 and a half 224 and
- 23:40A2 so what do we have here the spread
- 23:43difference is 3.9 so technically you
- 23:46should be going with Detroit cuz
- 23:47Milwaukee's projected by our model that
- 23:49isn't completely right is only supposed
- 23:52to win by 9 points the total actually is
- 23:5422.8 you're looking at a pretty decent
- 23:56difference so this would be you know
- 23:58maybe Milwaukee it's only three points
- 24:00which is one I showed you on my formula
- 24:01earlier we do have formulas in in uh
- 24:04play that really kind of weed out the
- 24:06close ones but this one might be one
- 24:08that you look at in under so guys that
- 24:10is pretty much it I know that that was
- 24:13overs simplified and I want you guys to
- 24:15know that I understand it's
- 24:16oversimplified but I think knowing that
- 24:19you can have this plug-and-play typee
- 24:20model you can add so many things in
- 24:22there so many things you can add pace
- 24:25and figure out you know what's the pace
- 24:27what's the average pace of NBA um if
- 24:29this game's average pace based on you
- 24:31know like the example used Atlanta's
- 24:34average pace and um Toronto's average
- 24:36pace what is the percent difference to
- 24:39an average MBA Pace you can kind of
- 24:41throw that percent into the total so if
- 24:43it's a really up paced game obviously
- 24:45you can throw in um that number that we
- 24:47got you can do times you know 0.15% or
- 24:50something like that and give it a couple
- 24:52extra points there's a lot of fun things
- 24:53that you can throw into a model um like
- 24:56I showed you guys when we expanded that
- 24:58model we had about 150 lines of stuff um
- 25:03and it's crazy how much data you can
- 25:04throw into these things so guys I want
- 25:06you to be able to take this and kind of
- 25:08work with it yourself um and yeah that's
- 25:11all I have for you guys let me know if
- 25:12you have any questions in the comments
- 25:14it's a super super simple model um but
- 25:17it's not as simple as you might think to
- 25:19build like you guys might be confused if
- 25:21you're not awesome um and yeah you know
- 25:24what if you guys want more of this let
- 25:26me know in the comments but we do this
- 25:27we just buil one for NBA player props
- 25:29that's firing at a 54% correctness so
- 25:31you know that's profitable but
- 25:33profitable we're trying to up the you
- 25:35know ante on that one and get it to be a
- 25:36little bit better um and then you know
- 25:38we also have one for the NFL we have one
- 25:40for uh you know mainly mainly player
- 25:42props there as well but guys let me know
- 25:44in the comments if you do appreciate
- 25:45this um and we'll catch you guys in the
- 25:47next one all right peace out
- 25:50[Music]
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