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How to Build a Sports Betting Model for NBA Against the Spread and Totals (SUPER EASY) — Transcript

by Guy Boston Sports · 5,425 words · 704 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

Full transcript

  1. 0:00all right YouTube how you doing welcome
  2. 0:02back to the channel before we even jump
  3. 0:04into this video I don't do this often
  4. 0:06but even before we jump into I'm ask you
  5. 0:08guys to hit that subscribe button and
  6. 0:10like the video a lot went into this
  7. 0:12video and we're really peeling back the
  8. 0:14curtain opening up and hoping to provide
  9. 0:17some help and support to you guys as you
  10. 0:20go through your sports betting in this
  11. 0:22NBA season or for years to come if you
  12. 0:25pay attention to this you're going to
  13. 0:26learn a lot from it the goal of this
  14. 0:28video is for me to show you guys where
  15. 0:30to start when putting together a model
  16. 0:33so I'm going to kind of walk you through
  17. 0:34a base model um something that I've done
  18. 0:37and the goal is for you guys to really
  19. 0:38be able to take what's shown in this
  20. 0:40video add to it Tinker with it and
  21. 0:42become successful Sports betters
  22. 0:45obviously a lot of this goes into sports
  23. 0:47betting a lot of people like to rely on
  24. 0:49this some people like to rely on their
  25. 0:51big old gut but when it comes down to it
  26. 0:53the analytics are going to be the most
  27. 0:55important part of your sports predicting
  28. 0:58processing Sports gambling process I
  29. 1:00think we can all agree on that it's one
  30. 1:02of the only gambling type things that
  31. 1:04you can actually find an edge on
  32. 1:06spinning a roulette wheel no Edge you're
  33. 1:08playing Blackjack it's really up to what
  34. 1:09card comes out next sports betting
  35. 1:12you're you're going to be able to find
  36. 1:13some edges you're going to be able to
  37. 1:14find some discrepancies and some things
  38. 1:16that you can take um action on and
  39. 1:18really capitalize on an opportunity as
  40. 1:21you guys know the lines in sport setting
  41. 1:23can be changed by a lot of people
  42. 1:25betting on one team or a lot of money
  43. 1:27going in on one team and sports books
  44. 1:29react AC in but what we're going to do
  45. 1:31is take all the noise out of it and
  46. 1:32really get down to the Brass tax about
  47. 1:34what this game spread should be or total
  48. 1:37should be again this video we're
  49. 1:38focusing on totals because it is
  50. 1:40probably the most simple to explain but
  51. 1:42if you guys want me to dive into you
  52. 1:44know we have spread models we have
  53. 1:45player prop models that we work really
  54. 1:47hard on if you guys want to see
  55. 1:48something like that let me know in the
  56. 1:49comments down below but again ideally
  57. 1:52what we're doing here is kind of giving
  58. 1:53you the starting point we're going to
  59. 1:55walk through it completely and then you
  60. 1:57guys can Tinker with it and make it what
  61. 2:00you want and find success in it so right
  62. 2:02now what we have is something that looks
  63. 2:04like this we're going to build something
  64. 2:05together that looks a little bit better
  65. 2:07maybe easier but I've built this a long
  66. 2:09time ago it's hard to change the format
  67. 2:11now but uh you can see as we go through
  68. 2:13we have each and every game on the NBA
  69. 2:15slate tonight and we have a projected
  70. 2:17score and projected total for these
  71. 2:19games now it's not as simple as that
  72. 2:21once we look at here we'll unhide these
  73. 2:23rows we have so many stats dumped into
  74. 2:27this model and we're not going to go
  75. 2:28through each and every one of these now
  76. 2:30but we're going to go through a decent
  77. 2:31amount of them so you guys can learn and
  78. 2:33um ideally do this yourself I can't
  79. 2:35stress that enough so if we jump into
  80. 2:38this too this is how I kind of have it
  81. 2:39spit out to me on the day-to-day basis
  82. 2:41we have pretty much you know if it's not
  83. 2:43a big enough difference or big enough
  84. 2:44margin we we have it formatted to tell
  85. 2:47us to push um and then we also have
  86. 2:49where our plays would be tonight so all
  87. 2:51I would have to do in the morning is
  88. 2:52update these lines and ideally we're
  89. 2:54seeing you know it's given us five plays
  90. 2:56that we can spit out we've tracked it so
  91. 2:58far this NBA season we we're tracking
  92. 3:00just about every single day um you
  93. 3:02notice we started on the 25th that's
  94. 3:04because we want enough data to go into
  95. 3:06this so you can't really trust always
  96. 3:07last year's data roster changes injuries
  97. 3:10all that stuff so we waited about a week
  98. 3:11before implementing this but you can see
  99. 3:13as of right now 19 and 10 on the season
  100. 3:16this is the daily average for what
  101. 3:18percent we are so it's not the
  102. 3:19aggregated amount it's just on a daily
  103. 3:21average we're looking at just about a 60
  104. 3:235% win rate and then that kind of rings
  105. 3:26true when you look at our total um on
  106. 3:28the season here we're not and five in
  107. 3:30spreads and 10 and five on totals now
  108. 3:33this is just the models data right we
  109. 3:36don't play every single thing on the
  110. 3:37model cuz like I said it does come down
  111. 3:39to you know feeling like you have a gut
  112. 3:41feeling on the game you know this is
  113. 3:43just a piece of it it's a good place to
  114. 3:44start but um I just wanted you guys to
  115. 3:46see that there actually is winning
  116. 3:48involved here if I took my brain out of
  117. 3:50it took my heart out of it and just
  118. 3:52followed the model it would be
  119. 3:53profitable it doesn't always work like
  120. 3:55that obviously you're going to want to
  121. 3:57um you know make plays based on other
  122. 3:59things you know and stuff like that or
  123. 4:00feelings you have but I do want to just
  124. 4:02get out there and say that but um yeah
  125. 4:04so we pretty much want to end with
  126. 4:06something that maybe looks like this
  127. 4:07we'll focus on one that you can just
  128. 4:09make one game and you can edit these two
  129. 4:12team names and get the spread we'll
  130. 4:14worry about this part where it spits it
  131. 4:15all back out of you and everything like
  132. 4:17that in another video cuz there's going
  133. 4:18to be a lot of formulas and a lot of
  134. 4:20things that you guys will need to know
  135. 4:21and probably rewatch any parts of this
  136. 4:23video If you're not an Excel Wiz we're
  137. 4:25doing this in Google Sheets but if
  138. 4:26you're not an Excel Wiz or stuff like
  139. 4:27that some of this can be confusing but
  140. 4:29but honestly guys if you sink your teeth
  141. 4:31into it and set your mind to it too it
  142. 4:33can be really really fun to get a good
  143. 4:35result so just to get you just so you
  144. 4:37know what to expected here we got a
  145. 4:38couple tabs here that are Auto imported
  146. 4:40all of these numbers are coming in I'm
  147. 4:43going to tell you what most of them are
  148. 4:44doing and everything like that but all
  149. 4:47of these are coming in and this is
  150. 4:48definitely a lot guys this is just for
  151. 4:51um some of the spread and total when we
  152. 4:53look at player props we have even more
  153. 4:55here even more numbers so I'll show you
  154. 4:56how to set up Imports like that and how
  155. 4:58to make it pretty simple for you guys
  156. 5:00that you don't have to touch it on a
  157. 5:01day-to-day basis it's really you know
  158. 5:02moving that big boulder to start the to
  159. 5:05start the damn thing but then all of a
  160. 5:06sudden you guys will be able to do this
  161. 5:08yourself so let's start this like I said
  162. 5:11right we want to kind of be able to plug
  163. 5:12in okay there's two games tonight what
  164. 5:16are the um what are the lines or What's
  165. 5:19the total and what should be the total
  166. 5:22cuz that is truly the goal we're trying
  167. 5:23to figure out what this total of the
  168. 5:26game how many points are going to be
  169. 5:27scored in this game based on the numbers
  170. 5:30not based on what the bookmakers think
  171. 5:32not based on you know what your bookie
  172. 5:34and his site or her site uh and what
  173. 5:36Vegas thinks right what based on the
  174. 5:39true numbers when you Boggle it down
  175. 5:41what should the total of this game uh
  176. 5:44what should it be so we're going to get
  177. 5:46into it so this will be sort of the
  178. 5:48column that we look at here this will be
  179. 5:49the stats column okay um and I'm just
  180. 5:51making this simple you guys can
  181. 5:53obviously format this however you want
  182. 5:56um but uh here we'll do we'll do away
  183. 5:58team and and home team okay and then I
  184. 6:01like to keep this column here because we
  185. 6:03might be combining or taking some
  186. 6:04averages or something like that so just
  187. 6:06keep that in mind but uh first off let's
  188. 6:09start with what's probably the most
  189. 6:11simple way to get us an idea of how many
  190. 6:14points are going to be scored right
  191. 6:15points per game now I don't just do
  192. 6:17points per game we're going to be
  193. 6:19looking at points per game this year
  194. 6:22points per game home or away I guess I
  195. 6:25should say home away
  196. 6:31[Music]
  197. 6:33and then we're also going to be looking
  198. 6:34at points per game last three now a
  199. 6:37great site and I can put these links in
  200. 6:39the description a great site to get
  201. 6:41these from is going to be
  202. 6:43teamrankings.com now again we're not
  203. 6:45cutting this video we're not editing it
  204. 6:46it might be a little messy but on
  205. 6:48teamrankings.com this updates every
  206. 6:50single day you can get new um updates
  207. 6:52and everything like that so we're going
  208. 6:53to go to Stats we're going to team stats
  209. 6:54here on the
  210. 6:58right and we're going to look at scoring
  211. 7:00that's where we're going to get points
  212. 7:01per game right but it's not as simple as
  213. 7:03that just yet remember when I showed you
  214. 7:06guys this and how much data goes into
  215. 7:08that we got to set this up first so this
  216. 7:10is our main screen this is where we're
  217. 7:12going to get the projected total spit
  218. 7:13out at us correct so let's make another
  219. 7:15tab down here I know you guys can't see
  220. 7:17this so I'll move my camera for now
  221. 7:19let's make another tab down here and
  222. 7:22we're going to call this one data I know
  223. 7:25that may be off the screen but right
  224. 7:27here guys we're making another tab
  225. 7:28called data and we we have our Excel
  226. 7:30here the formula it's a very simple
  227. 7:32formula to use but what we want right
  228. 7:34now is right um NBA team points per game
  229. 7:37I like to give headers so if we need to
  230. 7:39refer back to it later we can but the
  231. 7:42formula is really really simple it truly
  232. 7:44is simple here and all we're going to do
  233. 7:46is go in here and do uh equals import
  234. 7:49and then we're going to scroll here
  235. 7:51import
  236. 7:52HTML we're going to go over to this team
  237. 7:54stats we're going to go to points per
  238. 7:56game and this is what's amazing about
  239. 7:58this guys all you have to do is copy and
  240. 8:00paste the URL let me see if I can make
  241. 8:02sure that this is fitting on the screen
  242. 8:06here so you guys could see
  243. 8:15it oh boy I I told you this would be a
  244. 8:19little messy didn't I there we go you
  245. 8:21guys can now see pretty much everything
  246. 8:23that is running here so we're going to
  247. 8:24take this URL copy it okay head over to
  248. 8:28our import
  249. 8:30quote paste
  250. 8:32quote comma and now this is where you
  251. 8:35can pick either list or table you're
  252. 8:36always going to want table when doing
  253. 8:38something like this so you're going to
  254. 8:39do quote
  255. 8:40table end quote comma zero you might
  256. 8:44have to do one you might have to do two
  257. 8:46the reason we can do zero is because on
  258. 8:48this site that number at the end of our
  259. 8:51formula is saying what table on this
  260. 8:53page do you want us to reference there's
  261. 8:56only one table on this page so one or
  262. 8:58zero would do the trick but once we
  263. 9:00press enter you'll see what we got here
  264. 9:02boom that is the table that we're
  265. 9:04looking at only in Excel form or Google
  266. 9:08Sheets form okay so we're going to head
  267. 9:10back to this tab
  268. 9:12now and again when I when I set it up so
  269. 9:15I use abbreviation so we have a whole
  270. 9:17another sheet where we really try to
  271. 9:19link up team name and abbreviation so if
  272. 9:21you look at this cuz we're going to be
  273. 9:22pointing to this at some point on my
  274. 9:25formula or my um my true model Memphis
  275. 9:28equals me so I have a bunch of formulas
  276. 9:30to make sure anytime Memphis is set it
  277. 9:32also means mm I don't want to bore you
  278. 9:35guys with that I think that that's
  279. 9:36something that you know would be fun for
  280. 9:37you guys if you want to really dig deep
  281. 9:39and try and figure that out yourself but
  282. 9:41for now we're going to make this as
  283. 9:42simple as possible um for us to be able
  284. 9:44to Plug and Play Each game that we are
  285. 9:47interested in so let's uh let's take a
  286. 9:49game that's actually going on tonight if
  287. 9:52we go to vssi and matchups here go to
  288. 9:54NBA uh lines and scores this is another
  289. 9:57great tool that I actually have within
  290. 9:58our field so you know guys always keep
  291. 10:01that in mind um and and make sure you do
  292. 10:03check that out but uh here we go this is
  293. 10:06what's a good game to use maybe the the
  294. 10:07Pacers this might be a good one here cuz
  295. 10:09it's um eight and a half let's see good
  296. 10:12game here I like this actually Toronto
  297. 10:14and Atlanta so the away team is
  298. 10:17Atlanta so we're going to plug this
  299. 10:21in and Toronto because why we're using
  300. 10:24those names is because in this we know
  301. 10:27that this is the uh um this is the
  302. 10:30abbreviation that they use so if we
  303. 10:31wanted to do OKC we' do Oak City and
  304. 10:34that type of thing but we have Toronto
  305. 10:36and we have where is Atlanta here
  306. 10:39Atlanta just making sure they're both on
  307. 10:41the board which they are so we have
  308. 10:43these two teams right so points per game
  309. 10:46uh excuse me this should actually be up
  310. 10:48here how about
  311. 10:51that because those are not their points
  312. 10:53per game this year but um okay so now
  313. 10:55we're going to do some vlookups if
  314. 10:57you're not familiar with v lookups all
  315. 10:58that is is going to be saying this cell
  316. 11:00is going to equal um whatever is on this
  317. 11:04tab based on looking at what is entered
  318. 11:07into this cell so we're going to do uh
  319. 11:09vlookup and again I'm not going to dig
  320. 11:11into what a vlookup is or what these
  321. 11:14Imports are I hope the formulas are good
  322. 11:16enough for you guys if you want to just
  323. 11:17watch it back and and follow that's
  324. 11:19probably the best way to do it if you
  325. 11:20want to know exactly what a v lookup is
  326. 11:22best way to explain it maybe watch a
  327. 11:24different Excel video but we're going to
  328. 11:25do vlookup and up here we're going to
  329. 11:27make sure we are targeting B 2 comma so
  330. 11:31we're targeting B2 what table are we
  331. 11:33going to be looking at we're going to be
  332. 11:35looking at this table and it's going to
  333. 11:36be this colum we're going to start with
  334. 11:38team and then we're going to get
  335. 11:402022 stats so we're going to go all the
  336. 11:43way down here and highlight everything
  337. 11:45for this you can go even deeper it's not
  338. 11:47going to mess it up just to make sure if
  339. 11:48they decided to expand and add multiple
  340. 11:50NBA teams that they would be captured
  341. 11:53there but not that they're ever really
  342. 11:54going to so um perfect now we have this
  343. 11:57and you're going to do comma 2 which
  344. 11:59because you're looking at the second
  345. 12:01column in the table you just created
  346. 12:03this is the table you are creating it's
  347. 12:05a subset of the table we have comma 2
  348. 12:07comma zero because you don't want it to
  349. 12:09return anything if it doesn't have an
  350. 12:11exact match okay now look at this points
  351. 12:13per game for Atlanta
  352. 12:16117.0 points this season okay and if we
  353. 12:19look if we want to fact check Atlanta
  354. 12:21has scored boom right here 117.0 points
  355. 12:24per game this season now it' be pretty
  356. 12:27simple now you're like okay well that's
  357. 12:28how many points at land is score right
  358. 12:30not quite Atlanta is also the away team
  359. 12:31tonight so what we're going to do is
  360. 12:32similar we're going to do the V lookup
  361. 12:35based on that Atlanta box we're going to
  362. 12:37go to data we're going to do the same
  363. 12:38thing only this time we're scrolling all
  364. 12:40the way over to and you're going to want
  365. 12:41to count this so 2 3 4 five six
  366. 12:44highlight them all comma six because it
  367. 12:47was the sixth column that we're looking
  368. 12:48at here zero because we don't want any
  369. 12:51um results if it does not find a match
  370. 12:54and actually points per game here
  371. 12:55Atlanta has scored 123 points on the
  372. 12:59road this season you guys see where I'm
  373. 13:01getting here we're going to continue to
  374. 13:02do it if you do want to fast forward a
  375. 13:04little bit that is totally fine I told
  376. 13:05you this is probably going to be a
  377. 13:06longer video um and uncut but I do want
  378. 13:09to let you guys know that if you get
  379. 13:10this that's pretty much what we're going
  380. 13:12to be doing a lot of but uh I urge you
  381. 13:14to stick with me in case I think of
  382. 13:15anything um to that that kind of jumps
  383. 13:17out here but points per game last three
  384. 13:19we're going to do another V look up here
  385. 13:22to Atlanta once again and obviously if
  386. 13:24you know Excel and you know how you can
  387. 13:25kind of copy this V lookup to multiple
  388. 13:27things and just change the column by
  389. 13:29means do it I'm trying to keep it simple
  390. 13:30for people that may not know so we're
  391. 13:32looking at the points per game the last
  392. 13:34three here which is right here so we're
  393. 13:36going to take that that's the third
  394. 13:37column boom all right so there we go
  395. 13:40points per game last three now what I'll
  396. 13:42do here because um it's going to be
  397. 13:46called a weighted average but I like to
  398. 13:48call this column the average SL um combo
  399. 13:51and this one will be the weight right so
  400. 13:53what we're going to do here and we're
  401. 13:54going to get these numbers for Toronto
  402. 13:56shortly as well in fact we can just take
  403. 13:58this formula as long as we make sure
  404. 14:01there are dollar signs in front of the
  405. 14:02letters and numbers here so that the
  406. 14:04vlookup does not change we can take this
  407. 14:07and just move it over here and now we'll
  408. 14:09have those numbers for Toronto if you if
  409. 14:11that does if that's too fast for you I
  410. 14:13can't help you there but you can go one
  411. 14:14by one like I just did um for the other
  412. 14:16ones for Toronto too if you want to keep
  413. 14:18it slow but um so what we'll do here is
  414. 14:21take these averages so just if we wanted
  415. 14:23to uh to to take how many points per
  416. 14:26game um you know each of these teams
  417. 14:29score together we could do something
  418. 14:30like this I'm going to get a little bit
  419. 14:31more advanced cuz I think it's better
  420. 14:32but you know average as a formula you
  421. 14:34could do this and based on that you
  422. 14:36know1 points if we were to average these
  423. 14:39two together that isn't exactly how I
  424. 14:41want to do this so we're going to get
  425. 14:42into another metric here which is going
  426. 14:45to be this exact same format only we're
  427. 14:47going to be looking at opponents points
  428. 14:49per game right which makes a lot of
  429. 14:51sense now that we think about it okay so
  430. 14:53we looked at the points per game they're
  431. 14:54going to score but how many points do
  432. 14:57they let up on a night toight average
  433. 15:00both home and away this year and the
  434. 15:03last three you can reference back to um
  435. 15:06this team ranking site which again I'll
  436. 15:07put this in the description this is an
  437. 15:08amazing amazing site to use but you go
  438. 15:11to team stats you can go to scoring
  439. 15:12defense opponents points per game now
  440. 15:15what do we have to do here we have this
  441. 15:17table but we need a new table so we're
  442. 15:20going to head over here and do opponent
  443. 15:22team points per game I like to just copy
  444. 15:26this this uh this um formula here and
  445. 15:30edit the URL so make sure you guys do
  446. 15:32edit it because you don't want to copy
  447. 15:33it over and think that this is the
  448. 15:34opponent's points per game it's not we
  449. 15:36want to get the new URL for it we're
  450. 15:38going to plug this in to where the URL
  451. 15:40sits here we plug this in it's going to
  452. 15:42take a second to load and boom now we're
  453. 15:44looking at opponent's points per game
  454. 15:46okay so we're going to head back to here
  455. 15:48and we're going to be looking at Atlanta
  456. 15:50again so we're going to do another
  457. 15:50vlookup and this is all a lot of V look
  458. 15:53up in guys um but it is really worth it
  459. 15:55if you do learn it so vook up to Atlanta
  460. 15:57we're going to head over here one two
  461. 16:00that's how many columns we're looking at
  462. 16:01scroll down a little bit in case there's
  463. 16:02expansions uh two and zero boom that's
  464. 16:05how many points per game Atlanta has
  465. 16:07been letting up if you want to fact
  466. 16:08check it let's find Atlanta
  467. 16:24[Music]
  468. 16:29could dump this down here obviously
  469. 16:30you're getting the same number but what
  470. 16:31we're going to do is edit what table
  471. 16:33it's looking at cuz it's going to be the
  472. 16:35same number of columns they're still the
  473. 16:37away team so we're highlighting
  474. 16:41um getting this entire column making
  475. 16:44sure we're at the away and then boom cuz
  476. 16:46it's going to be the six so if that
  477. 16:47helps might be a little bit easier um
  478. 16:50then you can copy that down and actually
  479. 16:52just look at up here you see that it's
  480. 16:54the third column we're looking at for
  481. 16:55last three so we can
  482. 16:57do uh whoopsies we could do
  483. 17:00three um all right and now this looks a
  484. 17:04little funky right kind of like oh
  485. 17:05what's going on here why is it why is it
  486. 17:07the same number now we can go and and uh
  487. 17:09make sure that their last three and home
  488. 17:12games are the same I'm assuming it's
  489. 17:13because they've played three home games
  490. 17:15in their last three potentially but
  491. 17:17let's take a peek so Atlanta 116 and
  492. 17:20then away is also 116 sorry I said home
  493. 17:23earlier but meant away so that is still
  494. 17:26working it is correct there um and guys
  495. 17:29you want to make sure that whatever data
  496. 17:30table you're looking at which is the
  497. 17:31purple on your screen it does have the
  498. 17:33dollar signs a quick way to do that is
  499. 17:34by pressing F4 when clicked in to the
  500. 17:37formula that's just going to make it so
  501. 17:38you can move this uh formula around and
  502. 17:40the V lookup isn't going to totally
  503. 17:41change so uh let's do what we did before
  504. 17:44dump this in and uh it's referencing
  505. 17:46Toronto now so now this is where it gets
  506. 17:49kind of cool right so what we're going
  507. 17:51to do is pretty much take um and I guess
  508. 17:54we'll make
  509. 17:56this um pretty pretty pretty
  510. 17:59straightforward um the weight I maybe
  511. 18:01I'll wait to show you guys in a
  512. 18:02different video cuz that's pretty much
  513. 18:04just saying oh we want to prioritize
  514. 18:06their last three over their home whatnot
  515. 18:08as we dig into this maybe that'll work
  516. 18:10but this could be the easiest way for me
  517. 18:12to do this um and you know without
  518. 18:14showing you guys everything and boring
  519. 18:15you guys because you want to factor in
  520. 18:17Pace you want to factor in um turnovers
  521. 18:21offensive rebounds there's so many stats
  522. 18:23that can go into this this is just kind
  523. 18:25of the basics um so what I'm about to
  524. 18:28build to get this number I totally
  525. 18:30wouldn't recommend I would love and
  526. 18:32encourage you guys to kind of take this
  527. 18:33upon yourself and use this team ranking
  528. 18:36site and dump in stuff like that um to
  529. 18:38make sure that you feel like you should
  530. 18:41be getting um you know the the right
  531. 18:43numbers and always always test yourself
  532. 18:46and record yourself um and keep your
  533. 18:48record I should say uh like I said so
  534. 18:50let's look into this we're going to do
  535. 18:53Atlanta projected score right so what
  536. 18:56we're going to do here
  537. 18:59is take what they've done and what
  538. 19:02Toronto has let up and just to a simple
  539. 19:05average again this is super super simple
  540. 19:07but you're going to highlight
  541. 19:09these and and these and you're going to
  542. 19:12get a number here so projected score for
  543. 19:15Atlanta is 112 we can we can highlight
  544. 19:18this just so we keep it there
  545. 19:21112.8 okay that's based on Toronto's
  546. 19:23defense and Atlanta's success here home
  547. 19:26away all that stuff then we're going to
  548. 19:29look at
  549. 19:32Toronto's projected score you see how
  550. 19:35simple this is right so we're going to
  551. 19:37take another
  552. 19:38average we're going to take what
  553. 19:40Toronto's been doing and what Atlanta's
  554. 19:43been letting up and boom we got
  555. 19:46ourselves a projected score on the game
  556. 19:50here oh boy we went to a percent by
  557. 19:52accident so we got ourselves a projected
  558. 19:55score on the game
  559. 19:58now I guess the simplest way to do this
  560. 20:02would be uh projected
  561. 20:04spread and again please dump way more
  562. 20:07into this but you're going to do um
  563. 20:11because oh because you're looking at
  564. 20:13negative would be good for the home team
  565. 20:14you're going to do the away team minus
  566. 20:16the home team here and your projected
  567. 20:18spread would be it should be Toronto
  568. 20:21plus 3.4 okay and then a projected
  569. 20:27total is going to be
  570. 20:29a sum of those
  571. 20:34two so now you got 3.4 per for a
  572. 20:37projected total and
  573. 20:4022.2 for a projected spread if you want
  574. 20:42to do an actual spread here like what
  575. 20:45Vegas
  576. 20:46has and then an actual total for what
  577. 20:49Vegas has we can look here we're looking
  578. 20:51at this game right now it's a minus 2
  579. 20:53and A2 point spread for Toronto so minus
  580. 20:572.5 and the total is what are we looking
  581. 21:00at here total is 2222 so even right
  582. 21:04there we were pretty spot on with this
  583. 21:07simple simple formula but um one one
  584. 21:09easy whoopsies we're going crazy here
  585. 21:11one easy way of doing this and having it
  586. 21:13spit out with you would be the I like to
  587. 21:17do this just so it's easy for me you
  588. 21:18guys can don't have to but the spread
  589. 21:20play the the total
  590. 21:25play um and what that would be would be
  591. 21:28an if statement and if actually I can
  592. 21:29probably just do it out for you guys so
  593. 21:31it's pretty easy so what we're going to
  594. 21:33have is um spread
  595. 21:37difference total difference right and
  596. 21:41what that's going to be is our spread
  597. 21:43minus what the uh actual Vegas spread is
  598. 21:48and then the total is going to be our
  599. 21:51total minus what the Vegas total is So
  600. 21:54the difference here is a
  601. 21:565.9 Point margin in this game if we were
  602. 21:59using this this says that Toronto should
  603. 22:02be 3 and 1/2 Point underdogs but they
  604. 22:05are 2 and a half Point favorites so the
  605. 22:07value you identify if you're using this
  606. 22:10model and again don't recommend using
  607. 22:11something this simple but technically we
  608. 22:13should be going with Atlanta just based
  609. 22:16on the numbers here because technically
  610. 22:18they should be three and a half Point
  611. 22:20favorites but Toronto is 2.5 here two
  612. 22:24and a half Point favored so what's going
  613. 22:25on there for the total I would identify
  614. 22:27this as some something that we probably
  615. 22:29wouldn't roll with just because minus. 3
  616. 22:33is not enough I guess if you really
  617. 22:35wanted to factually say trust this model
  618. 22:38type of thing you would take the under
  619. 22:39because it's supposed to round down to
  620. 22:4122 and a half or 22 Which is less than
  621. 22:4422 and a half so the plays coming out of
  622. 22:47this would be Atlanta plus 2.5 and maybe
  623. 22:51the under okay and then you guys you
  624. 22:53know what the great thing about this is
  625. 22:55I didn't mention but if you wanted to go
  626. 22:57and look at other games
  627. 22:59like this Detroit vers Milwaukee one
  628. 23:01right it's going to be tough for me to
  629. 23:02spell Milwaukee but you can just update
  630. 23:05these names and you're going to get a
  631. 23:07whole set of uh you're going to get a I
  632. 23:10thought it was going to be tough for me
  633. 23:11to spell um Milwaukee not Detroit you
  634. 23:14spell Detroit right you put it in there
  635. 23:15you make this watch now I'm going to
  636. 23:17spell Milwaukee correctly and you get
  637. 23:18their numbers too so this one right now
  638. 23:21the actual spread is um the actual
  639. 23:24spread is U Milwaukee minus 13 right
  640. 23:29and the total is what do we have here
  641. 23:31the total is
  642. 23:3324 and a half okay 24 and a half 224 and
  643. 23:40A2 so what do we have here the spread
  644. 23:43difference is 3.9 so technically you
  645. 23:46should be going with Detroit cuz
  646. 23:47Milwaukee's projected by our model that
  647. 23:49isn't completely right is only supposed
  648. 23:52to win by 9 points the total actually is
  649. 23:5422.8 you're looking at a pretty decent
  650. 23:56difference so this would be you know
  651. 23:58maybe Milwaukee it's only three points
  652. 24:00which is one I showed you on my formula
  653. 24:01earlier we do have formulas in in uh
  654. 24:04play that really kind of weed out the
  655. 24:06close ones but this one might be one
  656. 24:08that you look at in under so guys that
  657. 24:10is pretty much it I know that that was
  658. 24:13overs simplified and I want you guys to
  659. 24:15know that I understand it's
  660. 24:16oversimplified but I think knowing that
  661. 24:19you can have this plug-and-play typee
  662. 24:20model you can add so many things in
  663. 24:22there so many things you can add pace
  664. 24:25and figure out you know what's the pace
  665. 24:27what's the average pace of NBA um if
  666. 24:29this game's average pace based on you
  667. 24:31know like the example used Atlanta's
  668. 24:34average pace and um Toronto's average
  669. 24:36pace what is the percent difference to
  670. 24:39an average MBA Pace you can kind of
  671. 24:41throw that percent into the total so if
  672. 24:43it's a really up paced game obviously
  673. 24:45you can throw in um that number that we
  674. 24:47got you can do times you know 0.15% or
  675. 24:50something like that and give it a couple
  676. 24:52extra points there's a lot of fun things
  677. 24:53that you can throw into a model um like
  678. 24:56I showed you guys when we expanded that
  679. 24:58model we had about 150 lines of stuff um
  680. 25:03and it's crazy how much data you can
  681. 25:04throw into these things so guys I want
  682. 25:06you to be able to take this and kind of
  683. 25:08work with it yourself um and yeah that's
  684. 25:11all I have for you guys let me know if
  685. 25:12you have any questions in the comments
  686. 25:14it's a super super simple model um but
  687. 25:17it's not as simple as you might think to
  688. 25:19build like you guys might be confused if
  689. 25:21you're not awesome um and yeah you know
  690. 25:24what if you guys want more of this let
  691. 25:26me know in the comments but we do this
  692. 25:27we just buil one for NBA player props
  693. 25:29that's firing at a 54% correctness so
  694. 25:31you know that's profitable but
  695. 25:33profitable we're trying to up the you
  696. 25:35know ante on that one and get it to be a
  697. 25:36little bit better um and then you know
  698. 25:38we also have one for the NFL we have one
  699. 25:40for uh you know mainly mainly player
  700. 25:42props there as well but guys let me know
  701. 25:44in the comments if you do appreciate
  702. 25:45this um and we'll catch you guys in the
  703. 25:47next one all right peace out
  704. 25:50[Music]

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