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how to actually do algorithmic trading — Transcript

by Moon Dev · 53,612 words · 9,177 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00algorithmic trading in Python can be one
0:03of the hardest things to learn because
0:05everybody is keeping their Edge to
0:07themselves it makes sense to me but when
0:10I was learning this and not being able
0:13to look online for anything I got lost I
0:16had to try a lot of stuff and now here
0:19right now I'm going to show you from
0:22idea from coming up with the idea of a
0:25trading
0:26algorithm so you can start algo Trading
0:30coming up with an idea I'm showing you
0:31how I come up with the idea for for all
0:34of my algorithms I build I'll show you
0:38that and then I'll show you how we build
0:40out a a custom data source and then use
0:44that custom data source to build our own
0:47trading algorith algorithms so I'm
0:50showing you absolutely everything here
0:53and you don't have to do anything for me
0:54I'm just glad you're here I'm glad you
0:56found me I'm glad you have somebody
0:58walking you through this process it all
1:01comes down to your own strategy at the
1:03end of the day and your own Edge but I
1:05can show you ideas and how I Implement
1:09my own ideas my ideas aren't necessarily
1:13right or wrong I'm not the best in the
1:15world at this I just go live every
1:17single day and I work on the hardest
1:20problem possible to get me to my big
1:23algorithmic trading goals so I'm just
1:25going to continue to do that every
1:27single day live here and here I'm going
1:30to show you step by step how to go from
1:33no idea all the way to trading algorithm
1:37so you can build whatever you can
1:40imagine I look forward to diving in
1:42let's go today we are going to do a
1:45brainstorm here on um essentially algo
1:50algorithmic trading systems uh ideas I
1:53have from the past um things I want to
1:56review and we're just going to get all
1:58our our thoughts together because we've
2:00been running running running for the
2:04last few weeks months years I don't know
2:08dude but I've got a lot of notes a lot
2:11of notes a lot of
2:13ideas and uh yeah we want to go ahead
2:16and get those all here on paper
2:20so I can make sure
2:23to make sure to do everything in the
2:26correct Manner and
2:30yeah I mean that's it that's that so I'm
2:32just going to kind of put my thoughts
2:33together here today and you know maybe
2:35it'll be interesting to you maybe not um
2:38every day I'm attacking a crazy goal in
2:40our ghost raing and today are my
2:42thinking days the days that I I think
2:45and I spend all day as you can see I'm
2:46up early I've already worked out um and
2:49my brain is activated I'm this is this
2:51is the best I'm going to be
2:54so it's all down here from downhill from
2:57here D it's already happening
3:01I need to get some Spotify going some
3:03good tones in my
3:05ear and now we're live oh see that
3:09already already welcome to easy
3:13[Music]
3:14Rod all right let's go ahead and I'm
3:18just going to pull up my notes here
3:20because I'm going to pretty much I have
3:21a build list and has 367 things on it
3:25okay code reviews though um code reviews
3:27projects these are my projects so
3:31um I would say I put all of these in
3:36some sort
3:39of drop down or something duplicate
3:43copy turn page into turn into bullet
3:47list page to-do list I think it's a
3:49toggle list maybe toggle with heading
3:55three there we go okay now oh boy this
4:00is going to change the game for my
4:03brainstorms all right
4:04[Music]
4:06um projects code
4:08reviews so we've been talking about the
4:10code reviews for a while code
4:14reviews I want to go ahead here
4:17and use this over here to go over to my
4:21YouTube and see what we've been working
4:24on I use this as well as a tool so
4:31okay these are all the videos we've done
4:32in the past so I can see where we've
4:35been going from here actually you know
4:38what better way
5:00I'm just going to take this slow and go
5:02through these and see um I know the last
5:05few months we've been doing a lot of
5:07Solana
5:09chbt unlimited crypto data Bitcoin
5:14runes Solana memes
5:35want to do a rest
5:43review one through whatever I think
5:46there's like
5:49nine let's make these um
6:10what's Review 1 through
6:17n coding
6:40review R through
6:42n absolutely got to do that
7:09am I using gbt desktop in
7:28this e
8:06unchain trading
8:13bot that's
8:15Jupiter trading Bots I mean that's what
8:18it really is on chain though I mean it
8:21is on chain so I think that's going to
8:23be interesting
8:26um definitely put that in there
8:41projects yep definitely want
8:49to I think toggle list is the best thing
8:52ever
8:53invented I'm going say that right
8:56now so I think that's that to list are
8:59the best thing ever invented that's the
9:02killer app here on notion for
9:05me so
9:07far just exploring notion a little bit
9:09for this Blaze
9:15St all right let's go ahead here and say
9:24projects I lost it oh yeah here it is
9:28store
9:31[Music]
9:37liquidation data source that's
9:40stable also want to have whoa whoa
9:47whoa okay that's good toggles
9:50there oh because maybe the thing
9:54is
9:57yep I want to work on
10:00[Music]
10:01um new back
10:03tests for
10:10the
10:12um funding
10:17right
10:28data
10:58e
11:28e
11:58e e
12:34open AI
12:39swarm and
12:44assistance from
12:46November all the way
12:53to ail
12:59cuz it changed a
13:01lot we got them in November and we've
13:03been working working with them since
13:05April so um that is
13:10interesting I want to keep working
13:12hacking at
13:14this building back
13:18tester back
13:20tester that I can run with
13:27RBI AI
13:51that's a project for sure sniper bot is
13:54really um meme scanner we'll get to it
13:58maybe these are just going to be up in
14:00here cuz these
14:10are these are
14:12good okay let's keep going
14:52back
14:54test trading strategies
15:03essentially I just want to do the RBI
15:05just I I like getting in there just and
15:08follow my process that's what I build it
15:13for or uh 8 hours or something
15:45unlimited that's a good project actually
15:47I want to break
15:49down uh
15:52Earnest
15:54Chan interview
16:00and build off
16:25it and um
16:29three
16:30days
16:32working on this subject I think it's
16:36just super interesting approach to
16:38machine learning
16:40so want to spend some
16:43time spend some of our stream time doing
16:57that e
17:42what meme coins were we doing okay three
17:46months oh okay yeah that's right that's
17:48right sorry I recorded the uh
17:51Earnest video so long ago this [ __ ]
17:57gu e
18:33want a sniper
18:57review
19:27e e
20:09okay so open AI trading Bots I want to
20:12revisit
20:13[Music]
20:17that cuz we were using like vision and
20:24stuff some on a
20:27sniper e
21:14statistical
21:17Arbitrage
21:19honestly project as well I mean these
21:23reviews
21:37stat ARB at points of
21:47liquidation like
21:55that I've built a great
21:59that
22:00AR
22:02but now need to tweak
22:10it to know when to run so you know I've
22:15tested it
22:18and I feel like I have some good ideas
22:21using
22:22liquidations that would be a cool time
22:24that's when I feel like the price is
22:26most unreal that's a that's definite
22:28hypothesis so it's not like
22:32real none of this is real until it's
22:34real you
22:47know this is actually a really
22:48interesting conversation as
22:52well breakdown Evan
22:59[Music]
23:02me
23:07P
23:08build
23:15offit I like his
23:17approach I like his approach a lot so
23:19I'd like to listen to
23:24that we got some liquidations coming
23:27through here
23:29orders are
23:30flying why what are y'all doing it's too
23:33early for you it's too early for you
23:38dog why are you trading why you trading
23:40by hand I don't know I do not
23:45know okay what else can we do
23:49here this is good this is good this is a
23:52good little uh review of everything
23:56that's out there right now for you I
23:57mean
23:58and this gets my brain going in the
24:04morning what you know what we have been
24:11building and where to move the
24:17boat where to tilt the
24:21plane it
24:30okay so this was
24:43the Big Lick
24:50here somebody just wreck got wrecked
24:52[Music]
24:54312k the liquidations here I'll make
24:57them a little smaller done
25:00here um had another idea
25:08oh okay cool already got
25:13that let's see what here what else we
25:16have here
25:25um okay so 6 months ago ago we were
25:28doing a lot of the AI stuff assistance
25:31open AI
25:36stuff I really like this one really like
25:40this
25:41one and I think that goes right under
25:43the liquidations
25:45because we'll get the liquidation data
25:58start back
26:00testing lick
26:04data see look this is what this is the
26:06type of stuff that happens to be this
26:08ain't
26:20stable what's going on do how you use
26:24this how you use this
26:29this ain't
26:33stable and I'm going go ahead
26:35[Music]
26:36and show why we need the stability
26:43here there we
26:45go oh my God this is clean B this is
26:52clean that's wild this is clean I like
26:56it
26:59I don't know how to change my stuff
27:01though maybe have
27:06to where's my cursor at what's going on
27:09I lost
27:12it okay
27:15so this this ain't
27:21stable I got to figure that out for
27:25sure for sure for sure
27:28all right and it's sad when that happens
27:32because that that set of colors being
27:36able to see that is so nice to stack up
27:39on top of each other you
27:42know so that usually happens when my
27:44internet goes out so I hope we're still
27:47here throw 777 in the chat if we're
27:49still here good morning good
27:53morning I hope everybody's doing amazing
27:55today
28:01honestly can you disable this uh these
28:04red lines though
28:06cuz or can you be a little more easy on
28:08me maybe yeah that'd be nice be a little
28:11more easy on
28:13me when it comes to uh
28:24typing I want to do this as well I think
28:27this is really interesting
28:29ah dang all of these things are
28:30interesting this is great this is great
28:33I haven't even got them my note sheet
28:34yet it's the funny
28:36thing I like I build like on Apple
28:42notes Apple
28:45notes yeah yeah yeah take a while to
28:48adapt new things it's okay
28:53be see what else is in here
29:05gold in here
29:06B there gold in here
29:32finding tring altcoins on coin gecko
29:35dang we really we really found a better
29:38source for that that's awesome that's
29:40awesome that's awesome I need to pick my
29:42top four today actually too gotta pick
29:45those top four every
29:50day yo panador 777 bro and zero art
29:56sound thank you as well thank thank you
29:58for being here much love to you much
30:04love Okay so
30:38ML on
30:41liquidation data
30:44funding
30:48um another Big Lick huh we missed
30:51it
30:53okay
30:55funding liquidation funding data and
31:01um
31:05orderflow I think these are really
31:09good I'm getting
31:26excited
31:56for e
32:40so I think time P script is really uh
32:42trading view is really dope in the sense
32:45that has so many
32:49indicators and different approaches to
32:51the market that is
32:53crowdsourced and since we can have
32:55access via pin script
32:58I want to give a little love to it again
33:00I want to keep up with it you know every
33:02few
33:21months M text table of contents
33:25duplicate link show deleted page turn
33:27off off this
33:30um what's it
33:34called
33:35[Music]
33:42underline it's it's all
33:45good I let it ride for now but I'm not
33:48going to let it ride forever sorry you
33:52got to go you got to get him out of here
33:55he's got to go he's got to go
34:00it's not his time no more I'm
34:11sorry Jim Simons
34:41Doc
34:44review and build
34:46off rest in peace do rest in
34:56peace
35:26e e
36:11I want to build a market regime uh
36:14project
36:49that might be the play honestly the
36:52instead of double double doing it I
36:55think this getting kind kind of long we
36:57got uh too much stuff too much stuff but
36:59that's okay it's okay with me it's okay
37:03with me to have too much
37:05here it sure
37:07is it sure is
37:14dude add cover change cover dog upload
37:18cover okay
37:298:
37:31a.m. I'll be here where you going to be
37:34at 777 if you're going to be here too
37:37777 to you if you're going to be here as
37:40[Music]
37:44well to
37:48do change that boom you got
37:54changed you got changed dog
37:59okay turn
38:01into toggle
38:04list I need to um
38:09build
38:12application
38:14typeform for the
38:17weekly code reviews
38:30yeah um to
38:32ensure only the most
38:36committed
38:38people are in the code
38:42reviews since I will
38:45be
38:49going over all of my week's
38:54code so that's how what I decided to do
38:57is
39:00just code reviews are going to be pretty
39:02much free I mean like two bucks two
39:04bucks a week or
39:07whatever and then
39:14um since it's kind of sketch like having
39:18weekly payments I'm not going to let
39:20just anybody pay
39:22me you know got to do a little
39:27not kyc but like ask a couple questions
39:31what you in it for I get weak weak
39:33responses or I
39:38don't just not everybody's going to be
39:41in cuz you
39:44know there are people on the
39:49internet that I don't want to be
39:52around so if you're going to come to my
39:54weekly co-
39:56reviews it's going to be pretty much
39:58free $2 per week but not everybody can
40:01join I'm
40:03sorry keep this tight it's going to be
40:05an inner
40:06[Music]
40:12circle the inner
40:15circles weekly code
40:18review it's the Inner Circle the people
40:20I actually want to talk to no offense
40:22dude you're still welcome around here so
40:24much love to you so so much love to
40:27everybody out
40:29there
40:32777 always always always and
40:35forever
40:36Todo now we got a Todo List look at
40:41that I feel like this is
40:44where this is where I put a little color
40:48here put like a Emoji or something just
40:50like colored up a little bit color it up
40:53but I'm not going to do that right now
40:56I'm sorry
40:59instantly trade better with this funding
41:01rate funding rate using funding
41:26rate e
42:06do I want to break down all these pods
42:12really is there 11 months
42:16ago 11 months ago
42:18dog I don't know where were we 11 months
42:21ago what were we building
42:24okay same things similar
42:27things but we're we've got so much more
42:30in our brains and so many more
42:31connections have been
42:56made e
43:40hyper liquid in
43:56Python e
44:54want to I want to check back in on autog
44:56gp2
45:11I feel like it's maybe maybe it's still
45:14a thing I don't know I just got to check
45:16in on
45:17it got to check in it if it's still
45:20growing if it's still growing there's
45:21challenges that we we got stuck on on
45:23with our swarms
45:25essentially so
45:33I think this is enough to review though
45:35because now we're a year back and I
45:39don't know I kind of want to look
45:40through it actually because there might
45:42be some good ideas
45:45here yeah yeah these are past ideas I
45:48wasn't I'm not just like over here bsing
45:51so some of my titles are kind of crazy
45:54but as long as I just have the idea idea
45:57I get the idea back get the idea from
45:59the past plus the idea from the current
46:36Miss
46:55Cloud I think they're changing their API
46:57Keys over to that so I got to change
46:59that quickly actually that is a few days
47:06maybe
47:09so that's a that's definitely on the
47:12projects list it's kind of a to-do
47:15projects are kind of to-dos so I don't
47:17know I guess this is like random to-dos
47:19so just that I think about things non
47:22algo trading so I'm liking the list so
47:25far all algo Trading just a little bit
47:27of Maintenance
47:29here that's nice that's
47:55nice
48:25e
48:55e
49:25e
49:55e
50:25e e
51:20all right this is cool that was I feel
51:22like that was a good exercise coming up
51:24with uh couple
51:27ideas here from where what we've already
51:29done cuz all of this I have all of this
51:32code you
51:32[Music]
51:33know every single thing that I've done
51:36here I have all of it I've got all the
51:38code you know so it's just like I've got
51:40all of these Lego pieces here I mean you
51:43do too it's all here but should I say we
51:48have all of this code it's all here on
51:51YouTube
51:57so every once in a while I like to go
52:00take a trip down memory lane kind of see
52:03what we've done and Spark those ideas
52:06and I think this was a really good
52:08session here we have a couple things I
52:11want to review kind of check back in on
52:15honestly this is all kind of similar
52:17stuff like projects and reviews uh I
52:21want to check I want to check back in on
52:22my rust I want to make sure I don't get
52:24rusty with the rust because I'm a r the
52:27faran at heart
52:29and I haven't put it to use
52:31yet so that's kind of it's not kind
52:35that's not that's not
52:38Bueno it's not
52:40Bueno it's no bueno okay
52:45so say uh number one let's let's
52:49prioritize this yeah yeah yeah yeah
52:56no let's just keep it let's keep it
52:58flowing let's keep it flowing not
52:59prioritizing yet not prioritizing yet
53:02because I haven't even gotten to my
53:04notes like the real stuff I'm trying to
53:06do like if I put in my notes I mean this
53:09is real this comes from my notes so this
53:11comes from my notes this is but this is
53:13past right so the future that's what it
53:15is future I'm trying to this was a good
53:17review to see what was in the past what
53:19we've built what I have code for any
53:22ideas that we haven't attacked that um
53:26would be sparked and now I got a good
53:28list and we're we're about to go on a
53:31journey be we're about to go on a
53:35journey it's going to be
53:38wild you show up I show up
53:42777 every day I'll be here I'll be here
53:45at 8:
53:46a.m. 8: a.m. eastern till the time
53:49changes and then I don't know I don't I
53:51don't know I'm here early today sorry
53:58that sucks when you get you get to you
54:00get to practice and you see you see me
54:01already sweating I already got a workout
54:06in I'm already here I'm warmed up I'm
54:09warmed up so might be
54:13earlier I think you can put
54:14notifications on and stuff that's cool
54:18that's what you want but
54:20uh yeah 777 in the chat is just sending
54:24love back and forth like much love to
54:26you much love to
54:28you you can have anything in this world
54:35dude all right
54:41so it's getting a little messy it's
54:43getting a little
54:45long so let's go ahead say liquidation
54:52data I'm going to have to make this one
54:54bigger B
54:56move to duplicate turn into toggle
55:00header one two three I'm going to go
55:02with the two now yeah I'm going bring it
55:05on up a little bit because the projectos
55:07are
55:09important okay you get it
55:19dude
55:21lick rations
55:31sorry sorry sorry it's I'm learning I'm
55:33learning how to use this
55:36thing okay there we go I like
55:39that um but that's that ain't it but
55:41what else what other topics we got here
55:43liquidations
55:46liquidations
55:48statar on
55:52liquidations infrastructure
55:57hey
55:59dude I want another one like
56:04that I wanted another one like that this
56:07is
56:08infrastructure back test Market regime
56:52duplicate you going to make me write out
56:55the Correct punctuation of everything
56:58and I don't know how to spells
57:00so you going to like fix it how do you
57:02fix
57:03it add the
57:07dictionary
57:09okay cool cool cool so I would say
57:12coinbase is
57:14that
57:20oops this ain't
57:24stable delete
57:27okay
57:30um I'mma copy
57:32this stupid and I'm going to call this
57:36uh machine learning
58:21man I'm not too good at this
58:24sorry oh it's the
58:27embarrassing all right back test
58:29unlimited um back testing infrastructure
58:32breakdown trading
58:54view like this is kind of
58:58infrastructure that's just such a boring
59:00name I'm never going to want to do
59:03it oh I want this to be
59:07called
59:08[Music]
59:10um Lego
59:18blocks Auto gbd ver Quant check in
59:23that's Lego blocks Jim Simons stock
59:26review see now it's easy to put it in
59:29there I can put everything in there now
59:32cuz they're all Lego blocks liquidations
59:35unlimited trading
59:40strategy Lego blocks everything playo
59:42blocks now if it's unknown it's not one
59:45of these
59:47specifics pretty
59:53much all right that's better uh Market
59:56regime of machine
59:59learning new back test for
1:00:02funding rate
1:00:13data I mean I should have a back anymore
1:00:33Del
1:00:37delete delete
1:01:01pack test with um trading
1:01:04view uh
1:01:08conversions really Pine scrip
1:01:15conversions
1:01:17okay that's going to be good all right
1:01:20I'm going to go through my actual notes
1:01:23here because this is the past past stuff
1:01:54for e
1:02:31all right I'mma put a go list just like
1:02:34absolutely go right
1:02:36now and that's going to be later that's
1:02:39going to be later today I don't know how
1:02:41long I'll be here we'll
1:02:43see we'll seeb but I got a lot of stuff
1:02:47I need
1:02:49to think
1:02:52about not going to put anything
1:02:59not going to put anything in there for
1:03:02now TVD
1:03:35okay so
1:03:38projects I can move them into the go
1:03:43list whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa
1:03:53whoa I'm not ready for that but that was
1:03:56nice to be
1:04:14honest not I'm not ready for
1:04:17it not ready for that move but that
1:04:20seems
1:04:22nice oh maybe I should put my go list
1:04:25over here here that' be
1:04:27hard and then can I make this goess
1:04:33yep yep that's it right there that's
1:04:45it that's
1:04:49dirty I'm make this a little
1:04:52smaller prob hard to see huh
1:04:57I can keep it a little bit
1:05:02bigger you can see that you can see
1:05:06that I don't need
1:05:12this can this be
1:05:15wider sure
1:05:20can it's a dirty dirty thing here I like
1:05:24it I like this
1:05:39thing and then what about like
1:05:42uh can we put another
1:05:54one nice
1:06:38this is where I think be
1:07:14all right cool
1:07:42I like
1:07:43this like this a
1:07:50lot okay I'm not a big fan of what's
1:07:52going on over here
1:07:54but maybe I can plop it in
1:08:05there turn into heading two please thank
1:08:11you why you up in there though I need
1:08:13you
1:08:15outside why are you over there okay
1:08:19there we
1:08:20go now let's put
1:08:24you e
1:08:57thank
1:08:59you it's a good place they got here it's
1:09:03a good place
1:09:06here I like it the
1:09:10do turn that into a header
1:09:14two and then plop it up in
1:09:19there
1:09:24nice
1:09:54e
1:10:24e e
1:10:56no my God this is what I
1:11:02think get rid of
1:11:07this get rid of
1:11:16this use to
1:11:19do you can leave
1:11:22now delete it
1:11:26delete it how do you get out of the how
1:11:28do you get this out of
1:11:29here
1:11:35there
1:11:37okay I mean it's just fine
1:11:40just okay I just want to
1:11:44uh list out some things and then we'll
1:11:47figure out where they go how about that
1:11:49so we're going to list out some things
1:11:52and then we're going to figure out where
1:11:52they go in this world
1:12:04um did that oh I love when I look at my
1:12:07notes and it's like oh already did
1:12:12it he's executing over here
1:12:53kind of liked it having it up here to be
1:12:55honest I'm just going to keep it there
1:12:58keep it there for now and we'll see how
1:13:00this
1:13:02goes so I feel like we're just getting
1:13:04started so I'm just going to grab some
1:13:06wall grab some wall real
1:13:24quick
1:13:54e
1:14:24e e
1:15:05basian
1:15:09basian Lego
1:15:12blocks machine
1:15:20learning
1:15:22statistics for trading
1:15:25how do you say this
1:15:32correctly
1:15:40B I always said
1:15:44basan but
1:16:11base
1:16:12Theory oh Kayla
1:16:48actually part of machine learning so I'm
1:16:49just going to put it here
1:16:56homeboy just said it at least
1:17:04so
1:17:05basian basian I've been saying it right
1:17:08okay
1:17:09sick because I mean it reads
1:17:12beijan to me it's like Asian
1:17:16beian but um you know
1:17:27for trading uh I want to do a review
1:17:37essentially okay so now I'm going to do
1:17:39like a little power
1:17:47time do a little bit power time going
1:17:49through my my uh notes
1:17:52here I got a ton of notes
1:17:57so just going to list them well how do
1:18:00we do
1:18:01this okay so I can just read
1:18:08through I really like this
1:18:11one that
1:18:21are stat ARB at points of liquidation
1:18:37and really like this
1:18:42one lowkey put this uh regime
1:18:50one regime one in here
1:18:56okay Market
1:19:06regime there a lot here
1:19:16be stat ARB yep F liquidation data y
1:19:23um think let
1:19:25was I
1:19:32mean I think that's good I think that's
1:19:35good both of those are good okay let's
1:19:37keep going
1:20:12Lego blocks
1:20:15um interactive brokers Interactive
1:20:19Broker
1:20:21review and uh or not review broker
1:20:25project like projects there's a ton of
1:20:28stuff but uh right now the lights the
1:20:31dance the dance are on the it's time to
1:20:34dance it's time to dance in crypto so
1:20:37lights are on music's
1:20:40on and it's it's not going to be on
1:20:43forever it could be on off tonight you
1:20:46know so at some
1:20:49point the music's going to be turned off
1:20:52and then
1:20:57leaps
1:21:00um
1:21:02lotos these are two options things I I
1:21:05want to get into options not I don't
1:21:08want to right now but you know I don't I
1:21:10want to stay
1:21:12focused I want to I want to stay focused
1:21:15but I'm going to put this on the Lego
1:21:16blocks Loki loky distractions I should
1:21:19put a distractions for later I'm going
1:21:20to put a for later yeah for
1:21:23later um
1:21:26um
1:21:30duplicate I'm just going to put 2025
1:21:35here if they're lucky if they're
1:21:43lucky I'm gonna be here forever you
1:21:48know I'm going to keep building every
1:21:50day so you're welcome to come along with
1:21:53me
1:21:55but um yeah I'll be here
1:22:05dog 2025 I'll Attack interactive
1:22:13brokers maybe maybe
1:22:22maybe this is where I I think I haven't
1:22:25thought there yet
1:22:57dissect
1:23:00um the way he uh
1:23:06predicted
1:23:11regimes the
1:23:14models he
1:23:21used
1:23:23like hit it Mark
1:23:36off I got a good tweet from
1:23:39this homeboy Ghost Shock Ghost Shock I
1:23:42think that's how he says
1:23:44man got a good tweet here about it so
1:23:56this is
1:24:01good all right
1:24:04so I want to look into that a little
1:24:14bit come on dog think I want to up in
1:24:17there want right there all right nice
1:24:22this is really nice organizing my
1:24:25thoughts a little
1:24:28bit I've also got a ton of
1:24:46notes I've also got a ton of notes
1:24:52um look at
1:25:16um oh this is under 2025
1:25:26lotos
1:25:27[Music]
1:25:28um
1:25:32programmatically figure out I guess it
1:25:36doesn't need to be
1:25:44programmatically I can just get a list I
1:25:46mean programmatic would be nice but all
1:25:48sometimes it's sometimes Harder To
1:25:51Source data that way not harder but like
1:25:54building stuff you got to build the
1:25:56python tool and then
1:25:58anyways interact Brokers projects this
1:26:01one
1:26:05is I was watching the Allin podcast
1:26:08yesterday and somebody said something
1:26:11interesting man they're leaning into
1:26:13politics a lot huh chill with that be
1:26:17chill with that come on just build
1:26:20be just
1:26:22build those those boys are experts in
1:26:24their industry I want to hear about that
1:26:26I want to hear about that I want to hear
1:26:27your opinion on on Tech
1:26:30stuff sorry B not into politics like
1:26:37that I never asked I never
1:26:40asked never asked the tech dudes to
1:26:43start talking politics
1:26:48B they had a good idea though so that is
1:26:56public
1:27:01Founders still as
1:27:04CEOs
1:27:05[Music]
1:27:09outperform other Co honestly back test
1:27:12set I mean it's
1:27:19easy dog I should just back I should RBI
1:27:22that now
1:27:30I don't want to get distracted but
1:27:32that's a interesting
1:27:47thought all right cool
1:28:03it's going through my notes
1:28:05here oh I didn't finish this thought
1:28:10here look at
1:28:13uh look at Jim
1:28:17Simons
1:28:21Noe in notes for
1:28:26T more
1:28:33okay let's keep
1:28:46going I really like this
1:28:51idea I think it's another machine
1:28:53learning one for
1:28:56sure
1:28:58connect brain to the
1:29:07Chart use uh
1:29:09[Music]
1:29:11neuro uh caps I
1:29:15guess in order to watch Traders brains
1:29:21while they are trading
1:29:24in
1:29:26different
1:29:28regimes
1:29:30regimes
1:29:35regimes plot the activity to
1:29:40the different type of regime or act uh
1:29:47chart chart Loki yeah
1:29:50chart um
1:30:00hypothesis hypo is
1:30:04that we can
1:30:06study points of panic and
1:30:13Euphoria to
1:30:17um to trade on I mean yeah that's
1:30:20it neuro caps
1:30:24um
1:30:25[Music]
1:30:26neuro is that what it even called uh
1:30:29neuro
1:30:32Neuroscience head cap No Cap brain scrub
1:30:44cap boy we we way off we a we way way
1:30:52off oh what is it
1:30:54called
1:30:56um yeah yeah that's what we got CH GPT
1:31:00for that's what we got her
1:31:05for what is the head cop that is used to
1:31:11collect brain data for
1:31:15neuros
1:31:17science
1:31:21T the H cop use no No Cap to collect
1:31:25brain data for neuro neuroscientists is
1:31:28called the
1:31:31electro
1:31:38graphy it's called The Electro cap the
1:31:41EEG cap the EEG
1:31:44cap the electro cap the EEG cap these
1:31:47caps are equipped with
1:31:51electroids electrodes that are placed on
1:31:54the scalp to measure electrical activity
1:31:57in the brain EEG caps can come in
1:32:00various forms including dry EEG caps
1:32:04these do not require conductive gel or
1:32:07paste and are quicker to set up but they
1:32:10have may have higher impedance and
1:32:14slightly less accurate readings compared
1:32:16to wet caps the wet cap these require a
1:32:20conductive gel or saline solution to en
1:32:23enance the electrical conductivity
1:32:26between the scalp and the
1:32:30electrodes they provide more accurate
1:32:32readings but can be more timec consuming
1:32:34and Messier to set up the hybrid EEG
1:32:39caps these combine elements of both wet
1:32:42and
1:32:47dry I like this dude I'm I'mma cop
1:32:51it I'mma cop it real quick where' we put
1:32:55that gy okay Neuroscience
1:33:03yes looks
1:33:11good
1:33:14okay EEG cap
1:33:26all right that's
1:33:30great I like that
1:33:32idea it's a good
1:33:46one I want to run it against a couple
1:33:48things
1:33:51though study the just yeah to study the
1:33:57difference
1:33:59between chart brain
1:34:03activity
1:34:05um
1:34:08Regular
1:34:10activity
1:34:14and meditation meditative meditative
1:34:40okay I don't think there's any thinking
1:34:42going on here so but maybe later n maybe
1:34:46later maybe later maybe
1:34:49later that's okay because we've already
1:34:51done this thought it's pretty cool
1:35:22for
1:35:52e
1:36:22e
1:36:52e
1:37:22e
1:37:52e e
1:38:30use gbt Vision in order to get all the
1:38:36code out of my
1:38:39videos it's going to be
1:38:43expensive AF
1:38:46but I just gota do it
1:38:50once correctly Okay so
1:39:01let's do like a rando here because I
1:39:06like yeah I think I'm G to get rid of
1:39:08this column here I just
1:39:13the forcing of having to put in a column
1:39:16right
1:39:18away l
1:39:24is too much for me it's too much for me
1:39:27so like this was an idea I would just
1:39:30put in here B gbt
1:39:33vision
1:39:34for
1:39:36extracting code from
1:39:41videos okay I guess I could just move
1:39:44that in here
1:40:03okay then I can put it all on
1:40:17GitHub that's
1:40:20it it's dope
1:40:41want this column
1:40:48anymore okay I like that
1:40:52idea
1:41:22e e
1:42:03expectancy
1:42:06expectancy
1:42:09Focus expectancy
1:42:11project
1:42:13uh expectancy
1:42:17focus when back
1:42:19testing so I had somebody come in oh
1:42:22multiple times to these
1:42:24streams I remember him clearly and he
1:42:28wrote so many things and I just I was
1:42:32just like all
1:42:33right well could be
1:42:36Alpha he was just saying expecting see
1:42:39it's only thing M only thing matters
1:42:41it's like okay cool cool cool I'm going
1:42:43to take that information and he kept
1:42:45coming in kept coming in every day I
1:42:49miss him Nate where you at Dog where you
1:42:53you been I need you yelling
1:42:56expectancy at
1:42:59me turn into how do you go ahead and
1:43:03move to make turn into a page page yeah
1:43:07here we go me get a little
1:43:09pager all my notes from
1:43:13homeboy say the only reason to trade is
1:43:16position sizing with an
1:43:19EV and then you know I kept just
1:43:22listening and I started working with gbt
1:43:24a little bit to get more
1:43:27information this is more like the text
1:43:31these are like chats right so you know
1:43:34it's fun it's I like I like doing this
1:43:36because whether it's good or or positive
1:43:39or negative people coming in if it's
1:43:42loud or quiet it's just so many ideas
1:43:44and I I'm just like listening to y'all
1:43:47like what what what are your ideas and
1:43:50then I've got obviously a t ideas as
1:43:53well got unlimited ideas actually we got
1:43:57too many
1:43:58ideas
1:44:00but it's so cool to be able to like
1:44:02share here and then um you guys share
1:44:06back with me
1:44:12so all right that's pretty solid I
1:44:16mean I think I'd rather just have it
1:44:20all up in there
1:44:24I don't like using that back button but
1:44:27whoa whoa whoa
1:44:31whoa let's just have that I like that
1:44:39better delete revert
1:44:44revert okay expectancy
1:45:06okay I like this this is I think this is
1:45:08where I'm content
1:45:11at with the uh setup here because too
1:45:16much pressure to like try to think or
1:45:17not too much pressure but just like I
1:45:19don't want to think you know my brain
1:45:21processing power is going through my old
1:45:23notes Here For the first couple hours of
1:45:25today and then I want to go ahead
1:45:29and put these pieces together for New
1:45:31connections
1:46:22this is going to be
1:46:23later one this is like hft
1:46:27stuff so I'm not I don't really want to
1:46:30go there right now
1:46:33but
1:46:35hft or 100
1:46:37millisecond
1:46:43trading all right so I'm interested in
1:46:46this but not right now but this is
1:46:50another
1:47:00disruptions
1:47:02eruptions of order flow there actually
1:47:05another one that was
1:47:07just somebody came in here talking
1:47:10something
1:47:11I um wasn't
1:47:14fully wise on and just another idea so
1:47:19thank you guys appreciate you guys so so
1:47:21much for sharing right back with
1:47:24me I'm going keep showing up you keep
1:47:26showing up I'm going keep showing
1:47:30up every day B every day let's go ahead
1:47:33and put this whole comment in here
1:47:36because I don't know sometimes these
1:47:38lead to absolutely nothing but sometimes
1:47:41they lead to you know some great things
1:47:44so it's worth a little bit of time here
1:48:13777 everybody everybody out there here
1:48:16today
1:48:37I'm just looking through my notes
1:48:51Here
1:49:21e e
1:49:52this one's in liquidation here
1:49:54liquidation data sources they will start
1:49:57back testing liquidation data so things
1:50:02[Music]
1:50:04like
1:50:06x
1:50:08m worth
1:50:12of of licks before
1:50:21entering um
1:50:25entering on different
1:50:32symbols then
1:50:35licked bunch of things here like the S
1:50:38ARB as well so
1:51:02back testing here um this is 2025 as
1:51:05well interactive brokers
1:51:10projects
1:51:18um yeah I'd put it up in here I'd put
1:51:21this in here and say
1:51:23uh trade weather
1:51:29patterns predict
1:51:32weather better
1:51:38than
1:51:40others equals Alpha okay that's it
1:51:44that's it though next year though next
1:51:46year lights are on music on I dance I
1:51:50dance be that's all that's all
1:51:53we
1:51:54here I'm going nowhere until I have to
1:51:57go somewhere
1:51:59okay but I'll switch
1:52:01too not married to any of this stuff be
1:52:04I don't care market and market and
1:52:05Market Market and market a market but I
1:52:08do like crypto obviously so I'm going to
1:52:10kick it here as long as I can I mean I
1:52:12kicked it all the way through the bare
1:52:14Market with you guys and not to say this
1:52:16is a bull market by any means but I'm
1:52:19not changing I'm not changing anything
1:52:21I'm doing yeah yeah but at the same time
1:52:24if there's opportunity because one of
1:52:26these
1:52:28things next year I'm not even getting to
1:52:31it till next
1:52:33year I already have this built out I
1:52:36have the infrastructure built out which
1:52:38is a nice part so this is all going to
1:52:39be
1:52:42easy big ER there big ER there big ER
1:52:45there I
1:52:46think now that like we can launch
1:52:49something we launch this this little top
1:52:51meme game thing
1:52:52now that we launched that literally
1:52:55Unstoppable because this took like three
1:52:58different languages and I had to work
1:52:59with a database and I had to put it on
1:53:02the internet it was crazy okay if I can
1:53:05do that I can do
1:53:11anything and just to review the just to
1:53:14review like what we've done just just in
1:53:16the last year I've been here for like
1:53:18almost three
1:53:20now just in the last year year that was
1:53:23crazy that was a great way to start this
1:53:26off cuz I really got the juices
1:53:43flowing I want to this is a Lego block
1:53:52watch where watch and
1:53:56track big
1:53:59orders and um
1:54:04assume
1:54:05mm push there okay so track big ORS uh
1:54:10derivatives big
1:54:14derivative okay
1:54:24I mean but also also this could be
1:54:33interesting this
1:54:35also could be
1:54:38interesting or like
1:54:41Solana
1:54:43tokens okay
1:55:02liquidations look at
1:55:05trending
1:55:08charts on
1:55:1355
1:55:17and
1:55:19enter on trend
1:55:22tell
1:55:24lick tell Big
1:55:27Lick
1:55:31close that's it be that's a
1:55:36thought I need to do that
1:55:41that's back
1:55:43test some lunar cycles
1:55:57how's this little guy
1:56:03doing not too good not too
1:56:06good how's this funny little dog
1:56:11do 10%
1:56:16interesting all right let's keep it
1:56:18moving
1:56:33oh here's the moon cycle
1:56:37bot Willy
1:56:51woo for
1:57:40this is actually Lego
1:57:44blocks open
1:57:47interest tracker to
1:57:50measure uh uh liquidation
1:57:55or L wipes wipe
1:57:59outs honestly this is not Lego block
1:58:02anymore this is all about this
1:58:04liquidation data so why I be watching it
1:58:06all day I mean obviously now my I'm
1:58:08biased towards it right I don't know if
1:58:10it's the right way but we'll
1:58:21see
1:58:51e e
1:59:44wow be we've come a long ways
1:59:57just looking through my notes
2:00:20still
2:00:50e
2:01:20e
2:01:50e
2:02:20e e
2:03:15I want to do that for
2:03:19sure review the art of War for
2:03:26trading thought that was a really good
2:03:29book right ah of time
2:03:58ideas
2:04:06from I got a bunch of ideas on a
2:04:12note
2:04:14that about liquidations
2:04:20here
2:04:50e e
2:05:48something else somebody came yelling
2:05:50about
2:05:51I love it it's free ideas thank you for
2:05:55your thank you for your thoughts B
2:06:47really like this quote right here
2:06:57from
2:07:01suzu it's not from
2:07:04suzu it is from
2:07:07suzu sunu suzu
2:07:10is other dude sunu
2:07:26dang
2:07:38it that ain't it but you know
2:08:06I guess that is it
2:08:24your dollars are your troops
2:08:27be your dollars are your troops
2:08:54nope that's
2:09:20dead
2:09:50e e
2:10:27let me go deeper into the Gap and go for
2:10:29crypto
2:10:56feel like this is pretty high priority
2:11:26is that how you spell his name though
2:11:27let's make sure that I got it right
2:12:03see volume
2:12:08patterns
2:12:11patterns around
2:12:15reversals and TR
2:12:18okay I've got a couple books
2:12:22I've got a
2:12:24book as well on it and then what was
2:12:29that other book I got I can't remember
2:12:32it was uh I think it was order flow
2:12:36yeah
2:12:38so
2:12:45liquidations I kind of want to break
2:12:47down that orderflow book
2:12:51study order
2:12:54flow and book
2:13:22let's dup
2:13:50this e
2:14:37dup it be dup it put it in here keep it
2:14:41in there
2:14:44and yeah I think that's it dude
2:14:54all
2:15:01right better learn his name dog better
2:15:05learn his
2:15:17name okay so
2:15:24this is looking good I've got a couple
2:15:26more months
2:15:28of things I want to go
2:15:33through just notes you know every once
2:15:35in a while I just want to do this I
2:15:38going to show you everything and this is
2:15:39an extremely important
2:15:42part so glad you're here 777 much Lou
2:15:46you
2:15:49be e
2:16:25no back test
2:16:31this this
2:16:34um YouTube video
2:16:54nice that's
2:17:19it e
2:18:03explore this
2:18:06um maybe go ahead and review
2:18:16the duplicate
2:18:26Christina
2:18:29she
2:18:31review
2:18:33and
2:18:38rebuild this
2:18:41vog of
2:18:44hers another uh
2:18:48pod pod here
2:18:52whoa whoa whoa that's cool that it does
2:18:54that but don't need it right now these
2:18:57are
2:18:59uh pod
2:19:04reviews so pod reviews those are good
2:19:07good
2:19:26I'm on 21924 now
2:19:35so I want to build in
2:19:422025 and options Market maker cuz math
2:19:48is hard
2:19:52study
2:19:54um options for and
2:20:00pricing Plus basan
2:20:19basan e
2:21:09honestly I want to get back to uh a
2:21:12little bit of
2:21:15studying I like it now I did it before
2:21:18but
2:21:22so I'm going to go ahead and make
2:21:25a duplicate
2:21:32study here and that study is going to
2:21:35have the books that I'm trying to read
2:21:52uh spend
2:21:55time time
2:21:57getting
2:22:01acquainted with the table of
2:22:06contents so when I read the
2:22:09book I read the book things will stick
2:22:15better mind-blowing thing I saw the
2:22:17other day on YouTube I can't believe
2:22:19YouTube's free
2:22:22um it's like duh
2:22:26essentially I was watching a video I
2:22:28wish I could find it and show you
2:22:30but maybe someday I'll put it somewhere
2:22:33Discord or
2:22:35something but it's like such an aha
2:22:38moment but such a simple thing and
2:22:40that's why you see me writing all this
2:22:42stuff out now
2:22:43partly I feel like organization is key
2:22:46but um what what the video was talking
2:22:50about
2:22:51is
2:22:52um if you kind of do like a pre-study of
2:22:54books then you
2:22:57don't it's a little easier to like go
2:23:01find the pieces that you're looking for
2:23:03cuz you don't need to necessarily read
2:23:04every single word you need to go find
2:23:06whatever you're looking for in the case
2:23:08of
2:23:09nonfiction books fiction non-fiction
2:23:12non-fiction the one that are used to
2:23:17study um
2:23:23for gold
2:23:33nuggets option volatility and pricing
2:23:36options
2:23:38[Music]
2:23:39volatility and
2:23:47pricing order flow book um
2:23:50[Music]
2:23:52um steady volume
2:23:55map map
2:24:00B this is the same for all of these I
2:24:18mean I don't need write that for all
2:25:19contents with
2:25:28luxie with
2:25:31AI so when I
2:25:34read
2:25:37things is
2:25:42it all right so
2:25:54all right I've just got a couple more
2:25:56months of notes I want to get down
2:26:01here I want to get to the start of the
2:26:03year you
2:26:04know it shouldn't be too much longer
2:26:35so for Golden nuggets um
2:26:57play with I
2:27:02guess this is definitely down
2:27:05here
2:27:10ml okay wow this is we're doing a lot
2:27:14today this is good this is good we got
2:27:18unlimited to build Here and Now kind of
2:27:21a prioritization I haven't put anything
2:27:24on the go list
2:27:28yet it's just going to depend on the day
2:27:31honestly depend on what I want to build
2:27:33because like maybe I want to build a
2:27:35game I don't know you know this is my
2:27:38world
2:27:43so I'm going to stay pretty focused as
2:27:45always new trading Bots daily put that
2:27:48there that's like the most dumb down
2:27:49terminology of what I what I do so put
2:27:53it there and um that's what I'm going to
2:27:56keep
2:27:57going but this over
2:27:59here I love it I love this just for
2:28:04being able to see what's going on on the
2:28:06salana
2:28:08blockchain so I just be looking at
2:28:12it took me about 12 hours to build
2:28:16it and now that it's built it's there
2:28:19which is so nice
2:29:01I think about this tweet a
2:29:03lot liquidations back testing Lego
2:29:08blocks machine learning
2:29:13yeah ML on when to cancel orders
2:29:20I think about this a lot just this
2:29:21little tweet that Jeff from hyper liquid
2:29:27had I like Twitter some good stuff there
2:29:30it's just about managing it you know too
2:29:33much
2:29:35anything so he had said this most Alpha
2:29:38is when to cancel
2:29:44though or
2:29:48mm I like it
2:30:00now I can just drag this
2:30:06around anything in go list that's this
2:30:09we're we're going we're ghost ghost
2:30:12where are we going anything done is
2:30:15great job B
2:30:23great job V
2:30:58all right this is this is so
2:31:15good oh and this tweet
2:31:21type of things can we do with seeing
2:31:23everybody's open
2:31:37positions what type of things can we do
2:31:42if we can see
2:31:45everyone's open position
2:32:00that's that some
2:32:18code
2:32:48e e
2:33:43all
2:33:48right
2:34:18e
2:34:48e e
2:35:37want to build something sentiment
2:35:42wise tool based off of YouTube titles
2:35:48for the
2:35:51day maybe more maybe less I don't
2:36:18know e
2:36:57yeah sick well that went through the
2:36:59whole year I have so many more data
2:37:01sources in order to uh idea generate and
2:37:05I think you know you kind of see what
2:37:08I'm doing and how this works how I
2:37:10generate my
2:37:11ideas so this is
2:37:14brainstorming this is the r
2:37:19this is the
2:37:25r r and
2:37:28RBI what the heck is
2:37:31RBI link to it
2:37:34dog I don't
2:37:38know it's part of it I mean I'm not
2:37:41reading right now no but like this is
2:37:59all right so I have another data source
2:38:00I want to go through
2:38:03and we'll do that in just a
2:38:18few
2:38:48e
2:39:18e e
2:39:59yellow all right so I went through all
2:40:01of that I want to go through my uh
2:40:03archives now I've got some goodies
2:40:07here
2:40:10and yeah this is going to be sick
2:40:21this is going to be
2:40:48sick e
2:41:32all right
2:41:33so these are some good ideas I think and
2:41:37now I've
2:41:38got L study for Golden
2:41:43nuggets review I want to go re this back
2:41:46to review pod review
2:41:52reviews
2:41:57and these are YouTube reviews from
2:42:01YouTube well I can probably do something
2:42:04like this
2:42:08YouTube and then I can probably do
2:42:10something like
2:42:16this archives
2:42:23and then I could probably do something
2:42:24like
2:42:26this turn into duplicate turn into page
2:42:30turn
2:42:32into okay toggle list okay sick bro this
2:42:38is great I like it I'm a fan I'm a
2:42:45fan I'm not a Stan but I'm a
2:42:48fan not St but I'm a fan
2:42:51okay let's go ahead here
2:42:58and how do I get to those AR
2:43:02guys
2:43:04playlist it's private playlist
2:43:12though
2:43:15129 129
2:43:20okay
2:43:50all back
2:43:55us give a second look
2:43:58because there's new information in the
2:44:00Noggin now the Noggin got new new stuff
2:44:38I want to do the
2:44:41math math behind naria
2:44:46because nadara
2:44:50yeah I want to do that
2:45:19server
2:45:21setup historical data
2:45:24historical
2:45:32data forever
2:46:00Geo machine learning
2:46:32invas self J
2:47:18did pin
2:47:47rip e
2:48:24what did he
2:48:47grab
2:49:17e
2:49:47e
2:50:17e e
2:50:55a lot of good stuff
2:50:57dude I'm just like over here
2:51:17astonished e
2:52:17there I probably have 100 back
2:52:21test probably
2:52:24more okay well I want to review
2:52:33them I don't know where I was though oh
2:52:36was down here it's getting a little too
2:52:38long
2:52:40huh I could see how it would be useful
2:52:43to
2:52:44have this over
2:52:47there for
2:53:31all right so just generating some a few
2:53:34more ideas here see if there's anything
2:53:37that just like totally pops out of
2:53:47me e
2:54:35wow we've got a lot to look at now lot
2:54:38to think about I think I'm going to put
2:54:40my go list up
2:54:43here cuz
2:54:45then that that would leave room for
2:54:49these reviews
2:54:51here to do
2:54:54[Music]
2:55:052025 I can put these here too
2:55:18I'm going keep it like this for now but
2:55:21I would like it to be in
2:55:30different I feel like this is so much
2:55:33good info
2:55:35here oh my God yeah yeah yeah this
2:55:41is this is
2:55:44it move things around a little bit for
2:55:47sure cuz getting a little long here I'm
2:55:48not trying to be scrolling all all day
2:55:50long no no not trying to be scrolling
2:55:54all day
2:55:56long
2:55:59projects and reviews
2:56:21all
2:56:25right ain't going to work either but
2:56:28it's
2:56:30okay it's not going to work that's not
2:56:33going to work for
2:56:34me no
2:56:40way oh that's
2:56:45right that's why I have them
2:56:48that's the point
2:56:52dog that's the whole
2:56:55point that's the whole point these this
2:56:58is the invention this is the invention
2:57:00I'm I
2:57:05like
2:57:07wow yeah that's that's the that's the
2:57:10winning feature in my
2:57:11mind I don't know I don't know about you
2:57:14do but
2:57:27that's
2:57:32nice to
2:57:34do I got to build
2:57:39that
2:57:45reviews it should be a drop down for
2:57:47sure
2:57:48they should all be drop downs I want I
2:57:50want everything to be a toggle list
2:57:52because that's just what is what it is
2:57:57it's the best thing
2:57:59here it's the absolute best thing
2:58:07here toggle list this is
2:58:12smooth bullet toggle
2:58:15list just toggle list everything
2:58:19just about to toggle list everything in
2:58:21my life toggle
2:58:36list I mean honestly
2:59:11what's this toggle this for sure toggle
2:59:14toggle three
2:59:18I am my
2:59:19guy I don't think so actually I think
2:59:21it's
2:59:23a less
2:59:39but the toggle list is revolutionary
3:00:04revolutionary
3:00:31777 much love to
3:00:34you tomorrow
3:00:57go
3:00:58list just
3:01:05decide it be pretty nice to
3:01:08have but TBT vision for extracting code
3:01:12for my
3:01:16videos e
3:02:01Ste volume patterns around reversals
3:02:06okay so we got liquidations
3:02:16here e
3:03:06it's storable
3:03:45nice
3:03:55oh snap I fed
3:04:05up oh reverse reverse reverse oh but I
3:04:10tried that already
3:04:19in store
3:04:52honestly this is a project right
3:04:55here liquidations and
3:04:59ho I'mma put this right
3:05:02there
3:05:05so might just slide I might just slide
3:05:08it over I don't know we'll
3:05:11see CV
3:05:33oh this is so juicy this is so juicy
3:05:36because now it's just like all
3:05:40right we're just running every day every
3:05:46day e
3:06:30semi urgent
3:06:33here actually yeah I got to do that
3:06:36pretty
3:06:37soon think I got a couple more
3:06:40days I'm actually
3:06:43pretty pretty uh pretty pretty I'm just
3:06:47going to put it over there let's do
3:06:49it that one's urgent Sorry
3:07:10Charlie reviews Jim Simon's Doc review
3:07:14and build off break down Evan Med pod
3:07:17and build
3:07:19off I got that twice
3:07:25du I go
3:07:30blocks who
3:07:59from trade to python dang that's
3:08:16good e
3:09:11love this the connecting the brain to
3:09:13the
3:09:14[Music]
3:09:16chart need
3:09:20that okay well that's the fact if that's
3:09:24fact spe then let's get
3:09:27it I can't do everything at
3:09:29once got to focus
3:09:54how's this possible How would how would
3:09:56this be ex how would this even be
3:10:06executed okay how does it how does it
3:10:08executed assume you got to get like five
3:10:10Caps or something
3:10:22maybe this data is already there maybe
3:10:25this data is already out
3:10:36there Google
3:10:38it
3:10:41um if
3:10:43not five caps and then run a
3:10:49study but how do you run a
3:10:53study run a
3:10:55study and is it
3:10:59chill okay that's that's doing a lot
3:11:03it's doing a lot but I think this is
3:11:06interesting what what why is this
3:11:08interesting why is this
3:11:12important and what is the edge
3:11:18that can be
3:11:22pull it's really Alpha
3:11:24[Music]
3:11:28whatever five caps and then run a
3:11:33study yeah I'm not trying to run a study
3:11:35right now
3:11:37so I am curious though how much these
3:11:40caps are because if they're like you
3:11:43know way way too expensive then I could
3:11:46just be be like ah yeah I'm not really
3:11:48interested in trying to run a study
3:11:50right now you know good justification to
3:11:51be out
3:11:53essentially
3:11:58um
3:12:02AliExpress AliExpress
3:12:10B
3:12:13cap okay so there
3:12:17they're pretty penny pretty
3:12:28penny can you answer these questions for
3:12:30me
3:12:37please help me with
3:12:40this help me
3:12:43brainstorm the below
3:12:51um cost what
3:12:54cost looks like the range of cost are 12
3:12:59600
3:13:011200
3:13:02[Music]
3:13:05um but on
3:13:11Amazon oh man
3:13:18no
3:13:23cap
3:13:25cap oh they don't sell them on Amazon
3:13:28huh so is a
3:13:32sketch is it
3:13:36safe that's a good
3:13:40question they don't sell it on Amazon
3:13:42that's a little weird see what it is on
3:13:45Google
3:13:49um
3:14:04eBay B
3:14:06canos are small medium and
3:14:10large for 900
3:14:19I
3:14:23mean look a little grimy to be honest
3:14:34so I think that's out out on
3:14:41that um
3:14:52345 okay so that's they all look like
3:14:55that
3:14:58maybe the
3:15:00bundles okay so
3:15:02it's it's going to be expensive so
3:15:06expensive and
3:15:08hard which is good
3:15:10separation
3:15:12but I got some really fun projects that
3:15:16I'm going really enjoy this one just
3:15:17seems pretty fun as
3:15:19well
3:15:23EG so legit your review uh search
3:15:26academic
3:15:29databases like Google Scholar Pub
3:15:32mad for studies on EEG and trading it's
3:15:36a really good idea jeez
3:15:47Google
3:15:53Scholar okay so yeah no new there's no
3:15:57new
3:16:01ideas there's no new
3:16:09ideas that's
3:16:15amazing just going to read these p
3:16:16labors and see what
3:16:21uh what the thoughts
3:16:31are let's go here and
3:16:34um
3:16:44brainstorming search
3:16:48EEG trading on Google
3:16:56Scholar okay that's a good one
3:17:31so let's do that let's start
3:17:36there turn into you know
3:17:39it a
3:17:43toggle uh take a toggle
3:17:47and this can make my list for now let's
3:17:52copy it can we do
3:17:54that copy copy link to
3:17:58block
3:18:03duplicate okay copy link to block oh my
3:18:08goodness get out the way
3:18:11computer all right
3:18:14so that
3:18:25yeah instead of doing it right off the
3:18:27bat let's read about what others have
3:18:29[Music]
3:18:31done
3:18:33boom close
3:18:36it I like this too it's 2025 I'm not
3:18:39even going to look at it not even going
3:18:42to look at it till
3:18:432025 I'm add stuff that I'm going to get
3:18:45to later there liquidations I think this
3:18:48is
3:18:57where and
3:19:00integrate
3:19:02integrate
3:19:05into
3:19:12HL but really nice funks
3:19:17okay that's should it be this is the one
3:19:19for
3:19:20me this is the one that's making it to
3:19:24be decided not no more nope delete it
3:19:28control
3:19:32delete control
3:19:37delete and
3:19:44then this going to be name project and
3:19:47these are going to just be
3:19:49like like review you know more chill
3:19:52stuff just like reading stuff
3:19:54and pulling things out it's already been
3:19:58out nothing's new there's nothing new
3:20:00around here so just you know building
3:20:05your own
3:20:08Edge
3:20:13liquidations projects reviews
3:20:17we can make this just a little bit
3:20:31bigger projects reviews this looks great
3:20:35let's check check in to see what's
3:20:38uh happening today I think it's Sunday
3:20:42yes
3:20:49oh my goodness some volatility
3:20:54today couple days back we looked at
3:20:57these liquidation
3:20:59levels people were getting liquidated
3:21:01here this was 15 million of
3:21:05liquidations the thesis and the reason
3:21:07I'm going to start diving deeper into
3:21:11this my thes is here
3:21:21liquidations Drive the
3:21:24crypto
3:21:26okay this
3:21:37say
3:21:39price
3:21:41simply
3:21:42simply simply moves between
3:21:50F okay that's
3:22:06it you got to be able to make it smaller
3:22:13right color
3:22:19default blue
3:22:21red maybe you
3:22:26can't little aggressive blue it's
3:22:29fine all
3:22:31right like what is Drive the crypto
3:22:33market price simply moves between legs
3:23:01okay so while I do this
3:23:04project I'm going to do these things as
3:23:07well look at that
3:23:10focus and what I mean by that is I think
3:23:13the majority of my time is going to be
3:23:14spent here
3:23:16maybe like 3 four
3:23:19hours and then like an
3:23:22hour here so 80% 80 20
3:23:3680 not I'm not going to even make a hard
3:23:39like that I just got to get these done
3:23:40to
3:23:42do
3:23:45um honestly hly I'm just going to put
3:23:54this over
3:23:56here and then put these up in
3:24:13there all right to do
3:24:17liquidations that's the project to
3:24:23do I got to do this stuff
3:24:52why is this so
3:24:54big we got to cut you down a little bit
3:25:32all right this is
3:25:39sick just want to look through flow real
3:25:41quick oh that's
3:25:43needed I don't
3:25:47not priority
3:25:49though it's not priority though so oh we
3:25:54we're going to look through this okay so
3:25:57looks like there's been some volatility
3:25:59here
3:26:03today I think this is still interesting
3:26:05to
3:26:07me price gets very
3:26:17really in
3:26:21price and
3:26:23price is least
3:26:27real at
3:26:33Le liquidations Drive the crypto market
3:26:36price simply moves between
3:26:40laks price is least
3:26:44real that big licks
3:26:52so that was like
3:26:53a we watched this all on stream and it
3:26:57turned out to be a good trade but it's
3:27:01just
3:27:01like finding the pattern is the
3:27:05key cuz this was like 10 10 million in
3:27:08laks so it's like okay well can you take
3:27:10that draw down 1% I mean I hope so
3:27:18but then the question is okay well if it
3:27:21went up
3:27:25like only a bot can trade
3:27:28this human I
3:27:31mean because the human will get shaken
3:27:33out right there human get shaken out
3:27:36right
3:27:42there I mean the easy easy place to
3:27:45start is like
3:27:48once 10 million of
3:27:51liquidations
3:27:53happen what happens we can back test
3:27:55that so think I'm going to do that here
3:27:58in this
3:28:08project yes exactly xm's jeez yo this is
3:28:14dope this is a great way to
3:28:17to to just like yeah get things in your
3:28:21brain I guess or get things out of your
3:28:23brain and
3:28:25then they're
3:28:27here I need to make these different
3:28:29colors that's what I need to
3:28:32do
3:28:35color
3:28:39oh my bad my bad
3:28:49we won't we won't use any colors right
3:28:51now about
3:28:53that how about
3:28:56that projects this will be like
3:29:00a
3:29:11work projects reviews
3:29:16this will be like a
3:29:19study
3:29:45books e
3:30:35okay that's good now let's uh what's
3:30:38what would be like a go
3:30:41representation go uh start
3:30:46um
3:30:56yep celebrate
3:31:30better chill out with that
3:31:33because I I got ain't got anything in
3:31:36there yet so B with the
3:31:44Emojis for
3:32:31I think this is a really good
3:32:33place this is our go list so just simply
3:32:37go just simply go this is where we're
3:32:40going
3:32:52it's the most important thing dude
3:33:33okay this is
3:33:34great let's see what else that we need
3:33:46oh I wanted to do this actually
3:33:49for
3:33:57um I don't know can't remember his name
3:34:00so I'm not going to say it not going to
3:34:02say it because I don't remember
3:34:04it and it be like that a lot actually
3:34:16Robert
3:34:21Mercer Robert
3:34:23[Music]
3:34:28Mercer breakdown wait where is the
3:34:41uh I mean this is really both so just
3:34:45make sure this one gets done
3:34:49here
3:34:57okay it's going to be good it's going to
3:34:59be really
3:35:00good look forward to that that's the go
3:35:03list up here this is where we're going
3:35:42what else there's nothing else this is
3:35:44it this is it I mean I have a go list
3:35:48tomorrow
3:35:49morning I'll be
3:35:52here I keep going you keep going I'll
3:35:54keep going you keep going I'll keep
3:35:56going keep showing up put the 777 in the
3:35:59chat you'll be here tomorrow if you'll
3:36:02be tomorrow throw the 777 in the chat
3:36:05I'm go check it out good morning
3:36:08Doug how are you how are you memx says
3:36:12are are these
3:36:13pre-recorded um no
3:36:16this is not this is
3:36:21not Bliss take it easy
3:36:25[Music]
3:36:34777 mlex says ask what what um what
3:36:39python packages are you using to send
3:36:41Solana
3:36:43transactions um
3:36:45to be honest I had to
3:36:48look
3:36:57salie oh my goodness Bliss says watching
3:37:00on the tube chatting on Twitch where's
3:37:03the world come
3:37:04to
3:37:10uh SC Sharma what's up what's up I hope
3:37:13you can hear me now
3:37:17I think that
3:37:22um I think I was taking a little water
3:37:26break it's good to see everybody Z2
3:37:28what's up what's up Wishy how are you
3:37:37man hyper parameter tuning it's good
3:37:42idea have I ever looked into ARB strats
3:37:45it's a good
3:37:47question oh man padol you're an
3:37:50inspiration beast beast bro that's what
3:37:53he said I appreciate it
3:37:567777 777 to everybody out
3:37:59there so good to see
3:38:02everybody I think today's brainstorming
3:38:05session was Unreal this right
3:38:10here stop it these two things
3:38:14here that's all that's needed it's all
3:38:17this needed for me at least
3:38:18so got my brain out here today
3:38:24um and I'll be back
3:38:28tomorrow every other
3:38:32day this is just a start you know this
3:38:37is a new day tomorrow
3:38:46today we this is like idea generation
3:38:50this is
3:38:51researching today I was researching in
3:38:53my
3:38:56documents I was re researching in my old
3:38:59thoughts researching in my old notes
3:39:02researching in my old
3:39:05videos but remember the process to
3:39:07automate your trading is this
3:39:18everybody wants to build a bot right
3:39:19away the process of automating your
3:39:21trading is
3:39:22really
3:39:24researching while it might be trading
3:39:26strategies we went we went over a lot of
3:39:28ideas today a lot of trading
3:39:30ideas back test then back test those
3:39:32ideas to see if they actually work in
3:39:34the past if they
3:39:36do they're not guaranteed but much more
3:39:38likely to work in the future so
3:39:41researching we spent a lot of time today
3:39:43researching through my brain my ideas
3:39:47some actually ideas from from YouTube
3:39:50people that have made
3:39:52comments always appreciate your ideas as
3:39:55well your ideas plus my ideas are more
3:39:58ideas you know so
3:40:04research we're going to continue to do a
3:40:06lot of back testing
3:40:09here that we're back testing the ideas
3:40:12that we came up with today see how it
3:40:14all makes sense now
3:40:18research research back test and
3:40:21Implement so
3:40:23today we were
3:40:25researching we were doing Alpha
3:40:31generation so now these ideas that we
3:40:34we've had today that we've put
3:40:37[Music]
3:40:38into
3:40:41here now these
3:40:43ideas need to be turned into
3:40:46strategies that can be back tested so we
3:40:50got to back test with good data so we're
3:40:54Alpha
3:40:55generating researching strats RBI
3:40:59everybody wants to jump to the eye
3:41:01everybody wants to build a bot right
3:41:04away the real question is have you back
3:41:06tested it does it actually work in the
3:41:10past because even if it worked in the
3:41:12past it's not guaranteed to work in the
3:41:14future so
3:41:18I know we talked a lot about a lot of
3:41:20topics today that might have
3:41:25been wild
3:41:29different I try to approach the market a
3:41:31little bit differently but at the same
3:41:33time it kind of seems when you look at
3:41:35papers and stuff when you when you
3:41:37research things it seems like a lot of
3:41:39things have been tested so there's a
3:41:43lot lot of ideas that have already been
3:41:46thought through and it's kind of like
3:41:48everything in the world it's like
3:41:49there's no new
3:41:50ideas but maybe maybe you'll have a new
3:41:53idea or connection that's what it's
3:41:55really
3:41:56about so I'm just going to keep doing
3:41:59the RBI system every day and I'll keep
3:42:02showing you and if you have questions or
3:42:05anything feel free to ask you know I'm
3:42:07here here to answer questions
3:42:11and I'll be here every day
3:42:15doing either the r the b or the I the r
3:42:18the b or the I the r the
3:42:21b or the I but the line share is going
3:42:26to be in the r and the
3:42:30b r and the B
3:42:34so I look forward to seeing
3:42:38you when I do see you
3:42:43again all right we're right back at it
3:42:45and we have everything here that we're
3:42:47following we're following our goal list
3:42:49our goal list says let's do liquidations
3:42:51okay and then later we might do a little
3:42:53bit of this but I'm going to focus here
3:42:55on our goal list the thesis is Li
3:42:57liquidations Drive the crypto market
3:43:00price simply between moves between licks
3:43:03and price is least real at Big licks so
3:43:07liquidations are when the exchange is
3:43:09like come here boy that that cash is
3:43:11mine now it's not yours anymore give it
3:43:14all to me your position is closed okay
3:43:18if you didn't actually want to close a
3:43:20position well if that happens to a big
3:43:21big boy well maybe that will disrupt
3:43:24price I don't know but that's the thesis
3:43:26and that's what I'm going with here
3:43:28today for the rest of the day uh we're
3:43:30going to build this out but a lot of
3:43:31things have happened overnight so I want
3:43:34to go ahead and dive in and check in to
3:43:37see what's going on in the markets
3:43:38before we dive in here and then we're
3:43:40going to be very focused here today
3:43:47so we're going to go over here jump into
3:43:49the market see what's going on BTC looks
3:43:51like it is up on the 15 minute again
3:43:53this is where the last big liquidation
3:43:55here was the last time we saw uh size of
3:43:59liquidation that would trigger whatever
3:44:01we're building here today this is the
3:44:03last time so it looks like it was a
3:44:06pivot point up 3%
3:44:09so it is what it is um I want to go
3:44:12ahead here and I'm going to make a
3:44:15new GitHub here and this GitHub is going
3:44:20to be on
3:44:24mine I'm just kidding I'll share the
3:44:26code in the uh Elite section of the the
3:44:30boot camp whatever create new repository
3:44:33here and this new repository is going to
3:44:36be
3:44:38liquidation tradeing
3:44:41bot I haven't even had a sip of coffee
3:44:43today
3:44:48first that is
3:44:52good that is so so good wow I'm coming
3:44:55back to life now wow wow wow wow wow I
3:44:59already got a good workout in so don't
3:45:00worry about me bro I got that natural
3:45:03caffeine going through me every single
3:45:04day because I wake up and I run to the
3:45:07gym I just go there
3:45:09immediately just get in there boy get in
3:45:12there main.py okay
3:45:15so we're going to be working from here
3:45:17this is our liquidation data let's go
3:45:18ahead and see where our liquidation data
3:45:21is Jupiter trading Bots okay I'm going
3:45:23to close these hyper liquids for now
3:45:25actually I'm going to put it on the
3:45:32side put it on the side here and then
3:45:34I'm going to grab those Jupiter trading
3:45:36Bots because those Jupiter trading Bots
3:45:38have where we're going to work from
3:45:40remember we're just following our
3:45:41process the process is simple it's the
3:45:44RBI system RBI system is how I automate
3:45:47my trading before I ever Implement a bot
3:45:50I research the trading strategy so we
3:45:52spent a lot of time researching going
3:45:53over ideas from uh my note sheet and
3:45:57resources I have in order to sell in on
3:46:00this liquidation trade so then we're
3:46:02going to back test it it's actually not
3:46:04going to be back testable so I'm not
3:46:06going to really back test this one I'm
3:46:08going move to I but the back testing
3:46:10part is going to be uh us setting up the
3:46:12the infrastructure because the
3:46:14infrastructure ructure is going to take
3:46:15a little bit of time to set
3:46:22up it's going to take a little bit of
3:46:24time to set up so we're going to use the
3:46:26back testing part that we're usually
3:46:28spending time on back testing uh since
3:46:30this is a tough one to back test since
3:46:31we don't have the data the liquidation
3:46:33data in the past then we're not going to
3:46:35be able to really back test it yes we
3:46:37could probably go try to buy it
3:46:39somewhere but um I would rather have my
3:46:41own liquidation data that I can depend
3:46:44on so maybe we can back test later so
3:46:46maybe I'll just set up the data sources
3:46:47and not actually implement the bot or
3:46:50I'll implement the bot with tiny size I
3:46:52don't recommend doing this uh yourself
3:46:56but I got some cash to blow on this so
3:47:01all right so it looks like the market is
3:47:03moving upwards okay I want to look at
3:47:05more of the hourly the big news
3:47:06overnight was the gme uh the the homeboy
3:47:10roaring Kitty came back so
3:47:12that's um it is what it is see Tesla
3:47:17here up a little bit coinbase up a lot
3:47:20of bit and Nvidia up a lot of
3:47:25bit let's go ahead here and see that gme
3:47:28how it's
3:47:34doing holy moly up
3:47:4075% that's wild
3:47:46it's wild that one guy can send it like
3:47:49that I guess he posted his positions or
3:47:52something let's go look at it just
3:47:54really quickly before we dive totally
3:47:56into
3:48:02the
3:48:04Roaring
3:48:09Kitty so it looks
3:48:13like maybe didn't I don't
3:48:16[Music]
3:48:18know I just heard people talking about
3:48:20roaring
3:48:21Kitty Roar rine
3:48:28Kitty maybe that's not him
3:48:31actually switch
3:48:36okay okay ended up with 100 m 80 million
3:48:40game
3:48:45okay so he posted it on on
3:48:49here on the
3:48:53uh on
3:49:03Reddit so it looks like he has calls for
3:49:07June
3:49:1321st the $20
3:49:19call okay so it's pretty deep in the
3:49:22money we got this call right
3:49:25here and he's got $65 Million worth
3:49:32jeez okay well it looks like the uh the
3:49:37stock market is turning into the meme
3:49:39market so to me that
3:49:42means that uh eventually they'll find
3:49:44their way they'll find their way over
3:49:49here they will find their way over here
3:49:51and it is what it is let's go ahead and
3:49:53dive into what we were doing we have a
3:49:55system here that we're following the RBI
3:49:57system research strategies or Alpha
3:50:00generation techniques use Google Scholar
3:50:03books your ideas your mind your past
3:50:05experiences your past trades I'm using
3:50:07past data here uh use back testing in
3:50:10order to back test it I don't think
3:50:12we're going to be able to do much back
3:50:13testing today unfortunately
3:50:18but then we can implement the
3:50:19infrastructure today for sure just
3:50:22because we need to be able to collect
3:50:24all that back test data in in order to
3:50:26back test this trading strategy let's go
3:50:28over the strategy that I'm thinking of
3:50:30so far so as you can see here let's go
3:50:33ahead and maybe make a not no notion
3:50:37notation
3:50:46and brainstorms maybe we can make like a
3:50:48new one I don't sorry I don't know how
3:50:51to do this yet but
3:50:59um strategies
3:51:05maybe let's put a um it's called this
3:51:08one
3:51:09a
3:51:12liquidation Trading
3:51:15strategy and then let's just take a
3:51:17screenshot of it cuz I feel like it kind
3:51:20of gives us the gist you
3:51:36know this on the 1 hour time frame this
3:51:39is 1 hour time frame
3:51:50simply
3:51:51[Music]
3:51:52buy
3:51:54crypto when there are
3:51:58over
3:52:0012m of liquidations because I remember
3:52:03this was about 8
3:52:05million here and then this was another
3:52:08like seven so it's like 15 million of
3:52:10liquidations so if we would have had a
3:52:13trigger of 12m we would have B literally
3:52:15would bought like here on this
3:52:21Wick
3:52:24um slang for a
3:52:273% gain and a
3:52:3110% like super simple dude but this is a
3:52:34unique data source right so while this
3:52:37is a simple strategy not everybody has
3:52:39this
3:52:43data where could we get get this data
3:52:45well I could just go to coin glass
3:52:47actually let's see what happens here see
3:52:49how much it is for the past liquidation
3:52:51data how much can I get in the
3:52:54past because I know I could I remade
3:52:56this but the thing that I need
3:53:02now it's past liquidation
3:53:07data 79 a month not bad
3:53:12actually 90 days is not enough to get
3:53:15like a robust back test but it's enough
3:53:18to get
3:53:20a
3:53:21[Music]
3:53:23um a regime back test I would like 180
3:53:27more so
3:53:30though regardless I want to have my own
3:53:33data because I don't want to be a slave
3:53:34to these guys forever so it looks like
3:53:38it's 90 or uh it's
3:53:4295 for 90 days
3:53:50data going to build my own data
3:53:55stream but if I want to
3:54:01use to buy
3:54:03something I can get 90 days of 30
3:54:10minute data for 79
3:54:16a month
3:54:18here or I can
3:54:21get 379
3:54:25for I guess I could get the 1 hour for
3:54:28180 but I I would want more than 1
3:54:31hour um I think I want 30
3:54:34minutes at Le at the minimum so so 15
3:54:38minute
3:54:4190day I'd really want 15 minute for 365
3:54:46days so I really need this package
3:54:49here see what the upgrade now looks
3:54:55[Music]
3:55:04like got to create an account it's not
3:55:08too hard I'm just wondering if it's uh
3:55:12instant because one thing I could do is
3:55:15I could
3:55:21just
3:55:23um sign up and back test this see if the
3:55:25strategy actually
3:55:26works you know opposed to building our
3:55:29own data source but I have the data
3:55:30source is the thing I just need to learn
3:55:32how to store it and I can learn that
3:55:33here today 299 or 299 or 299 for
3:55:40more still not all that I want
3:55:45really so I'm going
3:55:48[Music]
3:55:50to do it
3:55:53myself okay this is strategies
3:55:55liquidation trading
3:56:00strategies Okay
3:56:12so bance
3:56:15I'm going to the docks here market end
3:56:18points
3:56:19here because we do have liquidation data
3:56:23here so it was a websocket API but I'm
3:56:27wondering if they have the uh
3:56:30liquidation data
3:56:32for boy it's hot AF F in here I love it
3:56:36I would way rather be hot every time i'
3:56:38would way always rather be hot always
3:56:40rather be hot it's hot it's hot that a
3:56:42mofo up in here right now it's hot box
3:56:44up in here dog it's so
3:56:47hot but um I'd always rather be hot than
3:56:50cold like too hot is always better than
3:56:52two cold it's
3:56:55SB so I don't see anything about
3:56:57liquidations here do you
3:57:01lick I see the liquidation order streams
3:57:05yes liquidation order snapshot push
3:57:07Force
3:57:13liquidation so we got the liquidation
3:57:15order streams that's
3:57:23awesome and that's what we're using
3:57:25right now
3:57:50okay so that's what we're using right
3:57:51now but I want to go ahead and say
3:57:54um
3:57:56crypto liquidation data
3:58:36I Amber
3:58:38data it's fine
3:58:52okay well I think the liquidation data
3:58:54we're just going to build it ourselves
3:58:56fine I mean that's what we're here for
3:58:59right so I'm going to go ahead and build
3:59:01that out here in um just a
3:59:13few e
3:59:51so the first thing I want to do is I
3:59:54need to explain the problem that chat
3:59:55GPT okay cuz we do have the liquidation
3:59:58dat right here no problem no problem B
4:00:03but there is a problem dog so it's great
4:00:07that we got it because that's the
4:00:10hardest
4:00:12part I just don't don't know how to deal
4:00:15with the breakage so I haven't looked
4:00:19into it yet so it's no worries
4:00:23because we'll figure it out together
4:00:25here just in a variable amount of time
4:00:29maybe it's going to be ,000 hours maybe
4:00:31it's going to be 2 minutes I don't
4:00:33know liquidation data here licks here
4:00:37which one are we
4:00:39using I'm using licks okay so here I
4:00:43have all the code for
4:00:48licks I've got some code above and it's
4:00:53to store liquidation data please update
4:00:58the code so that
4:01:05it not
4:01:07only
4:01:09stores the data
4:01:15but if the data
4:01:21stream where are we storing the data is
4:01:24the question are we storing the
4:01:29data I don't even think we're storing it
4:01:44yeah we're not even storing this
4:01:54B I'm going to put this on a server
4:01:57though
4:02:02so say uh data
4:02:05here
4:02:10lick CSV copy path
4:02:19have it store the liquidation
4:02:23liquidation data
4:02:26here but put that put that file path at
4:02:33the top as a variable as I will be
4:02:39moving this to a server once robust
4:02:45bu the
4:02:48problem is
4:02:51that here let's uh copy path I want to
4:02:54copy the full
4:02:55path we have a problem here and the
4:02:58problem is going to be fixed by the end
4:03:00of this the problem is
4:03:03that the web
4:03:06socket breaks
4:03:09every 4
4:03:12hours or so
4:03:16randomly and I don't know
4:03:21why
4:03:22please
4:03:24introduce a solution that
4:03:28will make sure that it
4:03:32reboots and works and
4:03:36continues continues to save the
4:03:42liquidation data to
4:03:45the uh CSV when it
4:03:49breaks for
4:03:52debugging put in a variable up top
4:03:58saying debug equals true and when it's
4:04:04true have
4:04:07the uh the web socket break every 30 30
4:04:14seconds and
4:04:16reconnect so we can make sure that
4:04:21our logic works for when I set this live
4:04:28on a server and never look at
4:04:33it the end goal is to make something
4:04:40that can run 24/7 for years on end and
4:04:47when the web
4:04:49socket goes
4:04:52down
4:04:55it finds a way to relaunch
4:05:01itself
4:05:05and keep running and saving to the
4:05:10file the CSV is what we need to
4:05:18keep adding new lick data to I think
4:05:23that's good enough you know my problem
4:05:25we both know my problem
4:05:28now we all know the problem now dude we
4:05:30all do it we all know it we all know it
4:05:33we all got it you can see the
4:05:34liquidation data here okay
4:05:38great debug is true set to false for
4:05:41production okay file name yes yes great
4:05:44file name great okay this is the
4:05:47liquidation code here you have all of
4:05:49this code I believe code's a great
4:05:50equalizer I believe in you dude I
4:05:53believe you can do anything you want to
4:05:54do in this world as long as you leave
4:05:56with love and you throw the 777s in the
4:05:59chat whenever you see me live dude I
4:06:01will keep coming every single day I will
4:06:03keep showing up and doing everything I
4:06:06can in order to get to my goals so if
4:06:08you're an algorithmic Trader or you want
4:06:10to be an algorithmic Trader keep showing
4:06:12up as well put in the work be
4:06:17777 let's paste this bad boy in and see
4:06:21what we can do yes just like a noob I
4:06:24went ahead and I posted it in the CSV
4:06:26file nice okay term color ain't got it
4:06:30why cuz we got to flip on over to the
4:06:34mini Forge T flow boom boom boom let's
4:06:37go ahead and say run it dog
4:06:54it's running right
4:06:56now we just need some
4:07:05liquidations honestly I should probably
4:07:07just run it over in the licks
4:07:11file and then I'll make this miss the
4:07:13final
4:07:25file well let's just let's whatever it
4:07:28doesn't it doesn't matter I can just run
4:07:29it from here for
4:07:32now just run it for here from now for
4:07:35now for now for now run it from here you
4:07:38can see it has the debugging simulated
4:07:40break here reconnecting air simulate
4:07:51break I need some liquidations to come
4:07:54through so somebody go get licked please
4:07:56no I'm just kidding nobody go trade by
4:07:58hand please please please please you can
4:08:01see here this giveaway tool that I made
4:08:05here I really had some people being like
4:08:08oh this isn't random yada yada like okay
4:08:10well sorry I did my best
4:08:14save you can see the names over here we
4:08:16picked
4:08:17from all right let's go ahead here and
4:08:20let's wait for some liquidations let's
4:08:22go ahead and see these charts here to
4:08:23see if there's some liquidations going
4:08:25to come through at any
4:08:26time I don't care if they're long or
4:08:29short
4:08:35liquidations let's go ahead and read
4:08:37what chap gbd said handly
4:08:40reconnect every 30 seconds okay so it's
4:08:43doing the breaking this updated code
4:08:44will ensure the websocket connection
4:08:46automatically reconnects if it breaks
4:08:48and the debug mode will simulate breaks
4:08:50every 30 seconds to test the
4:08:52reconnection
4:08:54logic how do we how does the above code
4:09:01do the rec connection to make sure it
4:09:06actually
4:09:12works this one's a tough one to okay
4:09:14there we go we got uh liquidation
4:09:29here another
4:09:36liquidation I've got two running here
4:09:54I've got the old version of the code on
4:09:59the right and the new version on the
4:10:04left as you can
4:10:07see some new
4:10:10liquidations came through but they did
4:10:15not show on the left meaning the way you
4:10:22set
4:10:23up the break and
4:10:27reconnect didn't
4:10:40work allowing the logic to run in debug
4:10:42mode it will me like this ensures the
4:10:44code will continuously attempt to
4:10:46reconnect if the web socket breaks so
4:10:48this is the tricky part
4:10:51here I've been watching this data for so
4:10:53long though it's been building my
4:10:55confidence in this strategy I don't know
4:10:57if it's going to work dude I'm not your
4:10:59Guru
4:11:01but I'm trying it out
4:11:07so by the way I teach all of this in the
4:11:09boot camp the boot camp shows you step
4:11:11by step how to automate your trading
4:11:12here the boot campus here um this is
4:11:15what everybody has to say about it
4:11:16essentially I showed you step by step
4:11:18how to automate your trading from
4:11:19scratch just in case this is a lot for
4:11:21you right now I was in your shoes one
4:11:23time I did not go to school for this I
4:11:25learned it all on my own it was much
4:11:26harder for me than it is going to be for
4:11:28you because I have me here to hold your
4:11:31hand through the process here in short
4:11:33concise videos unlike these long videos
4:11:36where I work I'm just working here
4:11:37showing you what I'm building you can
4:11:39see what everybody has to say about the
4:11:40boot camp uh jump in it's % money back
4:11:44guarantee always so you know you can
4:11:46just jump in and hey if you don't love
4:11:47it then just get your money back
4:11:49immediately and no questions asked ever
4:11:51so feel free to jump into the boot camp
4:11:54I show you step by step how to automate
4:11:55your trading and if you're really really
4:11:59really about it you can check out my
4:12:00notion because there's a uh weekly thing
4:12:04that we do for anybody that clicks here
4:12:07click here read about it we do a weekly
4:12:09little thing on Fridays but that's only
4:12:11for the the only for the most committed
4:12:14so I'm not even going to talk about it
4:12:15you can find it if you'd
4:12:17like let's go ahead here and see what
4:12:19they have to say the I see that the
4:12:22reconnection logic might need adjustment
4:12:24to ensure the code reconnects and
4:12:26processes new liquidations let's handle
4:12:28the reconnection logic and add more
4:12:30detail debugging information to
4:12:32understand what might be going wrong
4:12:33here's the updated
4:12:39code all right we're in there connection
4:12:42to to that sorry I want to make this
4:12:46cleaner because I always end up copying
4:12:48all the code I'm a lazy
4:12:50mofo I'm a lazy mofo but I'll put in the
4:12:53work I'll put in the work every single
4:12:54day don't worry
4:12:55dude now while we watch this go through
4:12:58I want to do something else here I'm
4:13:00going pull luxie in because lux's going
4:13:02to go help us do something totally
4:13:05different while uh we wait here because
4:13:08I want to make sure to get the most
4:13:10impact out of this as possible so
4:13:13uh I'm studying a book right now and
4:13:20um yeah so I'm going to I'm going study
4:13:22a little bit
4:13:44well you know
4:13:46what I'm just going to go ahead and open
4:13:49up a new tab
4:13:56here so detail debugging information
4:13:59added print statement so now it's
4:14:00printing which is good you can see if we
4:14:03get uh liquidation here that means we
4:14:05need to we need to
4:14:10uh um
4:14:14we need
4:14:15to
4:14:16essentially see one over here that's
4:14:19what I'm waiting for so this just going
4:14:20to take a little bit minute so while I'm
4:14:23doing that I'm going to go over some
4:14:24studying because that's uh it's my time
4:14:27in the morning and I don't want to waste
4:14:29it I don't want to waste a single second
4:14:32here dude if you have any questions or
4:14:34anything please do post them in the
4:14:35twitch chat uh I'm going to go ahead and
4:14:38start with the chapter 1 through 4 here
4:14:40of this new book I'm reading here and
4:14:43and we'll just start with chapter 1 I
4:14:44want to see everything in it first and
4:14:47then I'm going to read it um I'm kind of
4:14:49skimming through it right now um trying
4:14:51this new approach to taking on uh
4:14:53textbooks that I learned the other day
4:14:54it's pretty
4:14:56awesome oh you can see a liquidation
4:14:58just came through and there was no
4:14:59liquidation
4:15:03here okay in yellow you can see a
4:15:05liquidation came through here so let me
4:15:07go ahead and make
4:15:08sure let's let's give it a couple more
4:15:11because that maybe it was on the
4:15:12reconnection
4:15:17debugged reconnecting
4:15:21okay so I'm going to say uh explain to
4:15:25me like I'm 12 the following
4:15:30subjects
4:15:35subjects
4:15:38basan basian thinking and every
4:15:43day
4:15:59reasoning B
4:16:03basian
4:16:05um
4:16:08statistics I'm going put that up
4:16:11here so I'm looking at the table
4:16:13contents of this book and this book just
4:16:15to give him a shout out is basian
4:16:17statistics the fun
4:16:27one intro uh probability
4:16:32probability for trading
4:17:01say
4:17:02uh
4:17:04measuring
4:17:06uncertainty certainty
4:17:16what is
4:17:22probability I mean I think we know what
4:17:24that is but I I'm trying this new type
4:17:26of learning here for going through a
4:17:28book and just understanding the table
4:17:30contents first before really reading the
4:17:35words
4:17:37calculating
4:17:39probabilities by
4:17:46for
4:17:49trading and then we'll do the exercises
4:17:52after I want to see a couple more
4:17:54liquidations come through I don't see
4:17:56any on the CSV so we'll go back to chat
4:17:59GPT here in a second and see what they
4:18:01have to say but um while I wait for oh
4:18:04there's another liquidation that came
4:18:05through and it did not show it so let's
4:18:07go ahead here and say let's say this
4:18:17okay um how should I format
4:18:21this let's let's close the CSV maybe it
4:18:24did put it in there no okay
4:18:33so okay you can
4:18:37see
4:18:39again there are new
4:18:44liquidations you can see them in green
4:18:49on the original code and then on the
4:18:55left
4:18:57side the code you sent me seems to not
4:19:04reconnect
4:19:07correctly it's not
4:19:09printing printing any
4:19:16liquidations and it's not saving any of
4:19:20the
4:19:21liquidations into the
4:19:24CSV
4:19:35either okay so let's let her figure that
4:19:38out and then while that happens I'm
4:19:40going to start reading through this so
4:19:42basian statistics imagine you have a jar
4:19:44of jelly brein and you want to know how
4:19:47many of each color there are but you
4:19:51can't look inside basian Statistics
4:19:54helps you guess the number of each color
4:19:57by using two things what you already
4:19:59know like someone telling me telling you
4:20:02there are more red jelly beans than blue
4:20:06and new information like pulling out a
4:20:08few jelly beans and seeing their colors
4:20:11as you get more information you update
4:20:13your guess probability for trading think
4:20:15of trading like a game where you want to
4:20:18guess whether the price of a stock or a
4:20:21cryptocurrency will go up or down
4:20:23probability helps you make those guesses
4:20:25it's like saying if it looks like it
4:20:27will range 70% of the time when the sky
4:20:30is cloudy there's a 70% chance the price
4:20:33will go up with certain pattern when
4:20:36certain patterns appear this helps you
4:20:38make smarter decisions when buying or
4:20:39selling basian thinking and everyday
4:20:42reason basan thinking is like updating
4:20:45your guesses based on new information
4:20:48for example if you think it's going to
4:20:50be sunny today then you see dark clouds
4:20:53you change your mind and bring an
4:20:55umbrella this kind of thinking helps you
4:20:57make better decisions in Daily Life by
4:21:00always considering new evidence
4:21:01measuring uncertainty imagine you're
4:21:03guessing the number of jelly candies in
4:21:05a jar if you have no idea at all you're
4:21:09very uncertain if someone tells you
4:21:11there are between 20 in 30 candies your
4:21:14uncertainty
4:21:15decreases measuring
4:21:17uncertainty means figuring out how
4:21:20unsure you are about something in
4:21:22trading this helps you know how
4:21:24confident to be in your decisions what
4:21:27is probability probability is a way of
4:21:29measuring How likely something is to
4:21:32happen for example if you flip a coin
4:21:34there's a chance there's a 50% chance it
4:21:37will land on heads and a 50% chance it
4:21:39will land on Tails it's like saying how
4:21:41often do does this usually
4:21:45happen calculating probabilities for
4:21:47trading to calculate probabilities for
4:21:48trading you look at past data and
4:21:50patterns for example if a stock goes up
4:21:53after a certain event 70% of the time
4:21:56you might say there's a 70% chance it
4:21:58will go up again next time that event
4:22:03happens you use these probabilities to
4:22:06decide when to buy or sell or make the
4:22:08best trades nice dude nice thank you
4:22:12appreciate that
4:22:13that let's go ahead and copy all of
4:22:16this and I'm going to make another thing
4:22:20here and this is going to be
4:22:27called oh this is dope I can make this a
4:22:31uh turn it into a my favorite thing my
4:22:36favorite
4:22:38thing perfect
4:22:42That's So Dope I'm telling you this is
4:22:45the killer feature behind notion so far
4:22:48it's the drop down just being able to
4:22:51take your notes and drop them down pop
4:22:52them up is incredible incredible I mean
4:22:56we built all this here together in
4:22:59this together so in the brainstorm
4:23:02section this is our essentially
4:23:04brainstorm list and look at that I can
4:23:07just go list boom liquidations this is
4:23:09what we're working on right now we have
4:23:10so much structure now this is amazing
4:23:12all you have to do is show up and hit
4:23:15777b let's go ahead and make one more
4:23:17note sheet here um this is going to be
4:23:20called um it's going to be called notes
4:23:22here no no it's not it's going to be
4:23:24called books freaking idiot you freaking
4:23:28idiot 777 basian statistics the fun
4:23:36way
4:23:38basian how you spell that I don't even
4:23:40know how to spell I barely know how to
4:23:41say it
4:23:48so you know go go read this book I mean
4:23:51I'm not going to be able to give it all
4:23:52to you here obviously I'm going to read
4:23:54it myself I'm just getting it getting it
4:23:57queued up here to
4:24:05uh chapters
4:24:08chapters
4:24:10one and two
4:24:14okay we're going to say turn into and uh
4:24:17let's make it a column
4:24:26three chapters one through
4:24:30or whatever I don't know I don't know
4:24:32what this is going to be yet
4:24:34but all I do know
4:24:39is better get up in there
4:24:43paste it in
4:24:49perfect chapters 1 through two
4:24:53okay let's see what G had to say about
4:24:57this so it seems that the reconnection
4:25:00logic isn't correctly reestablishing the
4:25:02connection or resuming the message
4:25:04processing let's try to address this by
4:25:06ensuring the connection is correctly
4:25:08reestablished handling messages properly
4:25:11okay let's go here and and um paste it
4:25:14in I'm just going to let GG run the show
4:25:16over here today because I got things to
4:25:18study
4:25:20and yeah so this is way better than just
4:25:24waiting for it so I want to read what it
4:25:26did at least so Pro process message
4:25:29function so here in the process message
4:25:34function it extracted the message
4:25:36processing logic into a separate
4:25:38function process manage
4:25:40message to keep the connection handling
4:25:42clean connection print statements added
4:25:44a print statement when a connection is
4:25:46successfully established to track
4:25:48reconnections exception handling within
4:25:50the inner loop the exceptions in the
4:25:52Inner Loop trigger a break to the outer
4:25:56loop to ensure reconnection okay let's
4:25:58go ahead you can see it's trying to
4:26:00reconnect let's go back to the book here
4:26:03and um wait for a liquidation to come
4:26:05through we haven't seen one yet it's
4:26:08currently the minute 14 so if we see
4:26:10anything down here over minute 14 and we
4:26:12don't see it here that means that it
4:26:14doesn't work and we'll just get back to
4:26:16it so boom we just had a new one here
4:26:17and it didn't show
4:26:22it I'm going to give it one more try
4:26:24here because you know maybe it was
4:26:25reconnecting or something N I don't
4:26:28think so though I'll give it just half a
4:26:31second though reconnecting okay I'm just
4:26:34going to give it one more try
4:26:37because I'm just going to give it a try
4:26:39I'm just going to let it have a try
4:26:41you're going to have one little try try
4:26:50buddy okay um below I'm going to say
4:26:55below below I'm going to put a
4:26:59couple
4:27:03exercises see you know what I'm going to
4:27:07do you better get up out of here boy I
4:27:10got a little bug on my
4:27:36face so good to be back on the island I
4:27:40swear I swear I would I will happily
4:27:42have a bug on my face I will happily
4:27:45have a bug on my
4:27:46face just so nice being warm
4:27:55again so I'm putting in the exercises
4:27:57from the book
4:28:01here
4:28:05exercises from the
4:28:10book I'm reading needing to learn more
4:28:15about basian
4:28:19basan please walk me through the
4:28:25exercises so I understand them okay I'm
4:28:31waiting for one more liquidation to come
4:28:32through here and then it's going to go
4:28:34ahead and tell me
4:28:35essentially oh my goodness I don't want
4:28:38to do p well I guess it's going to need
4:28:41to whatever we'll see see if I can
4:28:42figure it
4:28:44out it's cuz I put a hi or whatever that
4:28:47is the Apple weird
4:29:11thing
4:29:41e e
4:30:28all right so mad Lick's coming through
4:30:30it doesn't look like it's working uh
4:30:31this also didn't work so I'm going to go
4:30:33ahead and do One Thing by
4:30:36One this is crazy dude I'm sorry that
4:30:38I'm going back and forth like this but
4:30:42it is what it is you know you're gonna
4:30:44have to keep up and if you can't keep up
4:30:46dude then you're just behind and I need
4:30:49to get you up to speed as fast as
4:30:50possible so I can do that in the boot
4:30:53camp but here in the dayto day I'm sorry
4:30:56we're we're going to 180 mph and we're
4:30:58going to do two topics at once because
4:31:01gii it's AI takes a long time sometimes
4:31:04to Output things here are the pictures
4:31:07here are the pics again okay she takes
4:31:11too long some times so um you can see
4:31:13this is not working still so I want to
4:31:16go ahead here and say try a different
4:31:21approach
4:31:22try a different
4:31:26approach because they are still not
4:31:31reconnecting well you can see the right
4:31:36side
4:31:38which is the original code is
4:31:44outputting the uh
4:31:47licks but our code that I attached below
4:31:53is not correctly doing it nor is it
4:32:00saving to the
4:32:02CSV okay so I'm going to put all that
4:32:04code in here so this is the liquidation
4:32:06data this what we're working on but
4:32:08we're also studying here um this
4:32:13so here's a couple of examples great
4:32:15let's go through the examples here
4:32:16exercise one rewrite the following
4:32:18statements as equations using
4:32:19mathematical notation you learned in
4:32:21this chapter so the probability of rain
4:32:24is low the probability of rain given
4:32:28that is cloudy is high the probability
4:32:31of having an
4:32:32umbrella given it is raining is much
4:32:35greater than the probability of you
4:32:37having an umbrella in
4:32:40general yes
4:32:43okay that makes
4:32:44sense what are you doing over
4:32:48here Solutions the probability of rain
4:32:52is low so this can be WR written as P of
4:32:55rain is
4:33:00low mathematically P of rain is under
4:33:04zero indicating a small
4:33:06probability the probability of rain
4:33:09given that it is cloudy is high so it
4:33:12can be p rain given cloudy is high
4:33:16mathematically it' be p rain cloudy
4:33:19indicating a high probability so this
4:33:22means low probability and this means
4:33:23High I guess the probability of you
4:33:25having an umbrella given it is raining
4:33:27is much greater than the probability of
4:33:30having an umbrella in general this can
4:33:31be written as P of raining is p and
4:33:35umbrella okay so this must be an and
4:33:37okay so exercise two organize the data
4:33:41you observe in the following scenario
4:33:43into a mathematical notation using the
4:33:46techniques we've covered in this chapter
4:33:47then come up with a hypothesis to
4:33:49explain this
4:33:52data come on shorty you got
4:33:58this so we're trying to get this
4:34:00liquidation data here let's enhance the
4:34:02recognition Okay good
4:34:04job scenario you come home from from
4:34:08work and notice that your front door is
4:34:09open and the side window is broken as
4:34:13you walk inside you immediately notice
4:34:14that your laptop is missing so D1 is the
4:34:17front door is open D2 the side window is
4:34:19broken and D3 the laptop is missing
4:34:22hypothesis of burglar burglary occurred
4:34:25in basian terms we would we would want
4:34:27to find the probability of the
4:34:29hypothesis given the data so P
4:34:32probability of P of the hypothesis given
4:34:35this data okay that makes
4:34:37sense so get the P the probability is p
4:34:41and then hypothesis the H that this
4:34:43happened and then this is all the data
4:34:45that we can give it that makes sense to
4:34:47me cool cool and I haven't even read the
4:34:50book yet so I'm going to read the book
4:34:52after I I try I'm just trying a new
4:34:53approach of learning of going through
4:34:56and seeing like it's pretty much getting
4:34:58a summary right like get a summary of
4:35:00the book before you read the book and
4:35:02now you're going to understand the book
4:35:03better that's that's kind of what I
4:35:05learned the other day and it's like such
4:35:06a silly thing such a simple thing but
4:35:09you know I'm not very good at school so
4:35:13I usually just brute force it like I did
4:35:15with learning how to code I just do it a
4:35:17lot I just go hard and just go go go but
4:35:19I think there's other ways to consume
4:35:21information so I'm trying this trying it
4:35:25be and we're going to do it here back
4:35:26and forth while GG is going because she
4:35:29takes a while sometimes let's go ahead
4:35:30and run this and see if it matches up
4:35:33here connected okay that sounds good
4:35:35what did it change uh connected close
4:35:37exception using Connection close
4:35:39exception for simulating and handling
4:35:41and websocket closures retry Loop while
4:35:44loop okay simplified handling okay let's
4:35:47go back to this here we're going to look
4:35:48at exercise three the following scenario
4:35:50adds data to the previous one
4:35:52demonstrate how this new information
4:35:54changes your beliefs and come up with a
4:35:56second hypothesis to explain the data
4:35:58using the notation you've learned in
4:36:00this chapter scenario a Neighborhood
4:36:03Child runs up to you and apologizes
4:36:05profusely for accidentally throwing a
4:36:07rock through your window they claim that
4:36:10they saw the lapt to and didn't want it
4:36:12stolen so they open the door to grab it
4:36:15and your laptop is safe at their house
4:36:18that's
4:36:24funny liquidations just came through I
4:36:28think
4:36:30so no lick data dang B this one's a
4:36:33tough one
4:36:41I'm going to wait for a couple more oh
4:36:43another one just came through okay so
4:36:44it's not
4:36:46saving it's still not
4:37:04saving after
4:37:07reconnection I need to get just get
4:37:09better like how do you reconnect to a to
4:37:13a web soet okay so D4 a child confesses
4:37:17to Breaking the window new data so D5
4:37:20child claims the laptop is safe at their
4:37:23house revise revised hypothesis a
4:37:26burglary occurred or a child story is
4:37:28true so now in beian terms we want to
4:37:31update the probability of our hypothesis
4:37:33given the new data so P one and then now
4:37:36we have five new datas and P2 H2
4:37:39hypothesis 2 now we have five new data
4:37:42we can compare the probabilities of both
4:37:44hypothesis given all the data to decide
4:37:47which is more likely
4:37:52interesting I wonder if I can just put
4:37:54this in there how it looks at
4:38:00least it looks pretty good actually
4:38:16chapter one
4:38:22excises I don't know how so exercises
4:38:29clearly it's literally right here
4:38:51okay so this is a new try here and let's
4:38:54see what's going on let's refine the
4:38:55reconnection further to ensure it
4:38:57properly handles disconnections okay
4:38:59ensure clean codes okay paste it okay
4:39:03let's run it let's wait for some
4:39:05liquidations someone go lick go get
4:39:07licked no just kidding kidding bad joke
4:39:09bad joke I'm not going to keep saying
4:39:10that the bad joke
4:39:12dog so I want to go ahead and do chapter
4:39:152 exercises
4:39:19now just so we have seen
4:39:22everything and let's keep an eye on this
4:39:24it says 8:25 it's 8:27 now so if we see
4:39:27an 827 not on both sides then then you
4:39:30know the code doesn't work if it does
4:39:32work we'll see a
4:39:33827 uh or we'll see something after 827
4:39:37on both sides here
4:39:42I'm just going to the second set of
4:39:44exercises here on this uh
4:39:47basian book because I want to see
4:39:50everything before I fully read it you
4:39:51should read it too dude read it
4:39:55too I don't do anything just for fun
4:39:59here I'm sorry I don't do anything for
4:40:01fun this is fun to me I am here studying
4:40:05to be the greatest the best I can be and
4:40:09is it going to be the greatest probably
4:40:10not but that's okay I'm going to be here
4:40:14every day learning building and so
4:40:18on you can see uh liquidation did come
4:40:21through here so I can already tell it's
4:40:24not working an error occurred okay you
4:40:27can see it still came through here
4:40:35um so unfortunate this is so
4:40:39hard but we're going to work through it
4:40:42so still running into the same it shows
4:40:49licks on the OG code but not on the new
4:41:06one and it's not storing
4:41:12to the
4:41:15CSV
4:41:39okay just air dropping something to
4:41:41myself
4:41:52here let's go through these exercises
4:41:59now let's do the same for these
4:42:04exercises
4:42:07sizes okay so here you can see it's
4:42:10still out putting I like this new flow
4:42:12we got because now it's never stopping
4:42:14let's take another approach by ensuring
4:42:15the websocket properly handles
4:42:17reconnections and persist St after data
4:42:19breaks we also simplify okay here it is
4:42:22let's see if it went ahead and fixed it
4:42:25I don't know what to do from here other
4:42:27than continuing to go with gbt so I'm
4:42:31just going to keep doing that I'm not a
4:42:33professional at websockets unfortunately
4:42:35and I need to get better but um I think
4:42:38once we solve this then we're going to
4:42:40have that Notch here to understand
4:42:42things okay exercise one of the second
4:42:45chapter here what is probability of
4:42:47rolling two-sided dice and getting a
4:42:50value greater than seven first we need
4:42:53to list all possible outcomes when
4:42:57rolling two-sided dice 36 outcomes
4:43:01okay right next we need to count the
4:43:03outcomes where the sum is greater than
4:43:05seven okay oh there we go we got a
4:43:09liquidation perfect perfect let's watch
4:43:12these come through for a while and make
4:43:14sure that they're saving to the CSV
4:43:18nice they are saving to the CSV perfect
4:43:22perfect let's keep them coming in here
4:43:25and you can see not all of them are
4:43:26going to show because we have a limit
4:43:28there next we count the outcomes of
4:43:31where the sum is greater than seven
4:43:34there are 15 outcomes the probability is
4:43:36p Su over 7 okay so there are 15
4:43:40outcomes 15 over 36 and what is five oh
4:43:44that's the that's that of that's the
4:43:47same thing p7 so there's 15 outcomes
4:43:51probability of sum over 7even equals
4:43:53this okay what is the
4:43:55probability what is the probability of
4:43:58rolling three six-sided Dice and getting
4:44:00a value greater than seven the maximum
4:44:04what is first what is the probability of
4:44:06two okay
4:44:08three the maximum value of three-sided
4:44:11di three dice is
4:44:1318 to get a greater value greater than
4:44:17seven we need to count
4:44:19the number of outcomes minus the
4:44:24number we need to count the total number
4:44:26of outcomes minus the number of
4:44:28outcomes that sum to seven or less
4:44:32however since the majority of outcomes
4:44:34will be greater than seven we can simply
4:44:38simplify by considering the
4:44:41complimentary event the number of
4:44:44outcomes for three dice 63 is 216
4:44:49now now let's list outcomes where the
4:44:52sum is seven or less so this is a bit
4:44:54more complex but takes an intuitive
4:44:57approach so sum of three one way okay
4:45:00sum of four three ways okay sum of five
4:45:05six
4:45:09ways total ways
4:45:11is for sums of
4:45:17seven 35 probability is this P sum is
4:45:20over 7 okay 216 minus 35 what's where's
4:45:24216 from oh 6 to the 3 okay equals 181
4:45:28okay the Yankees are playing the Red Sox
4:45:31you're a DieHard y Yankees fan and bet
4:45:34your friend $30 if the socks lose and
4:45:37your friend uh if the socks lose and
4:45:40your friend will have to pay you only
4:45:42five if the Socks win okay so what is
4:45:46the probability you have intuitively be
4:45:48assigned to the belief that Red Sox will
4:45:51win
4:45:53six this question involves understanding
4:45:57expected value and betting odds let P be
4:46:00the probability that the Red Sox win you
4:46:04bet 30 if the Red Sox lose you win five
4:46:08if they win for a fair bet the expected
4:46:11value of the BET should be zero so we
4:46:15set the computation like this so P *
4:46:225 plus 1 -
4:46:25P time -3 = 30 solving for p so these
4:46:30liquidations are coming in now which is
4:46:36awesome looks like we're storing
4:46:38liquidations of over 3K here
4:46:41while the other code might be doing
4:46:44something
4:46:47different
4:47:083,000 that's interesting
4:47:11we look at this other code here this is
4:47:12where this is coming from you can see
4:47:14this one stopped this one's continuing
4:47:16to
4:47:19go now this one's not working
4:47:22fully but is it not I
4:47:28mean bance CSV okay so we just have it
4:47:32set there like that Holy Smokes this
4:47:35this is a lot a lot of lines
4:47:45and we do have the date time there it's
4:47:47just an Epoch time let's see if it got
4:47:49that new one here cuz I see a couple on
4:47:53here that are
4:47:54not on the
4:48:00uh I think this broke now see they be
4:48:05breaking they be breaking B
4:48:11I'm just happy that our new one is
4:48:12working so let's say main here and maybe
4:48:16it's working because we don't have the
4:48:19debug on there
4:48:30anymore
4:48:37rint does this code still
4:48:51the
4:48:53debug I don't see those prints anymore
4:48:58okay so I want to go ahead here this was
4:49:00a really good learning session for the
4:49:02first two chapters here just copy this
4:49:04you Noob the first two chapters of this
4:49:07book um I'm not affiliated in any way so
4:49:11just reading just I read books that are
4:49:14good for
4:49:16me I read books that give me the things
4:49:19I need and um chapter
4:49:252
4:49:28exercises but I still don't know how to
4:49:29spell
4:49:39exercises okay like that was a good
4:49:41chapter 1 and
4:49:42two exercise of chapters 1 and two here
4:49:47and what were those about give me a
4:49:49short name
4:49:51here give me a short title to go uh to
4:49:58explain
4:50:00everything we
4:50:02covered above like a
4:50:05chapter title okay we can see that BB is
4:50:09now showing here
4:50:23ban calculating proper
4:50:27probably put all the
4:50:31subjects in one
4:50:34title that we have
4:50:37covered okay we got some liquidations
4:50:39coming through on both both sides which
4:50:41is great to see because that means our
4:50:42code is working now oh Big Boy
4:50:45liquidation somebody just got wrecked on
4:50:47the BTC good morning good morning oh man
4:50:51oh man somebody's getting hurt out there
4:50:54on a Sunday morning or Monday morning
4:51:11it doesn't need to be whatever I'm just
4:51:14going to put that here that's going to
4:51:16be the title to this chapters one and
4:51:22two don't need to be bold
4:51:24though you bold right
4:51:29now can we underline you yes we
4:51:33can okay gbt did you print out this one
4:51:36new one here because I need to see that
4:51:38you're closing cuz I know you're working
4:51:40now which is great so let me run it okay
4:51:44so debug simulating break every 30
4:51:47seconds perfect let's see some licks
4:51:48come through okay there's a lick and it
4:51:51looks like it's going ahead and adding
4:51:53here hopefully yep it's adding perfectly
4:51:56these are all the liquidations coming
4:51:58through and now I want to see it break I
4:52:01want to see it do the force break here
4:52:03the force break will essentially show
4:52:05that now we have a robust liquidation
4:52:08data set and this data will we'll just
4:52:10continue to add over time and make more
4:52:13and more lines and we'll track all data
4:52:15here you can
4:52:18see we got an
4:52:20air but it's still
4:52:36running it's still running which is good
4:52:38you can tell it's running up here but is
4:52:40it going to print out again I don't know
4:52:43I'm glad to see it still adding though
4:52:45still adding okay and it's still
4:52:48printing too perfect what does it say it
4:52:49looks like the webside close call in the
4:52:51debug simulation is not being awaited
4:52:54which is causing the runtime warning
4:52:56let's fix this properly by saying
4:52:58awaiting web socket close here's the
4:53:00updated code okay I hope this doesn't
4:53:01break it though because we got a good
4:53:03thing going here and if that's just a
4:53:04warning F the warnings B I don't I don't
4:53:07care about the warnings dog if you're
4:53:09going to break my code that you break my
4:53:10code then all right okay I don't care I
4:53:12don't care about the warnings I will
4:53:14hide your warnings so so quick dude I
4:53:17don't care I'm here I'm here I'm not
4:53:19going nowhere I don't care I'm here
4:53:21every single day I hope you're here
4:53:23every single day too 777 to you dude
4:53:26like I said we're going to go ahead and
4:53:27do a full review every Friday now if you
4:53:30can find out how to get to there it's
4:53:32only going to be a group of a hundred of
4:53:34us Max and at the very bottom of this
4:53:37page you can go to my notion and see if
4:53:39you can figure out how
4:53:41to apply to that top 100 it's my inner
4:53:44circle dude so just go to the link below
4:53:47the link will take you to the website
4:53:49that's about the boot camp read what
4:53:50other people have to say about the boot
4:53:52camp the boot camp shows you how to
4:53:53automate your trading step by step dude
4:53:55nobody was here to show me this and it's
4:53:57pretty much free because if you don't
4:53:59love it you get a no questions asked
4:54:01money back guarantee IM immediately so
4:54:04don't worry about it jump in if you are
4:54:06curious and hey if you can go to my
4:54:08notion somewhere around here or ask
4:54:11around in Discord how to be part of the
4:54:12Inner Circle maybe you'll be able to
4:54:14come to Friday's overview too where
4:54:16we'll go over everything that we've
4:54:18built every week I'm just going to do
4:54:20that because I get it dude I I get the
4:54:23demand for hey like everybody wants
4:54:25tutorials everybody wants me to make
4:54:27short concise videos but that's what the
4:54:29boot Camp's for dude and I'll do it once
4:54:31every Friday I'll just go over
4:54:33everything I went over and um that will
4:54:35be your tutorial time so um if you can
4:54:38figure out how to get in there I mean
4:54:39it's not for everybody it's only for the
4:54:41people that can figure that
4:54:43out and if you can't figure that out
4:54:45sorry sorry dude you're not a you're not
4:54:48you're not welcome no offense but I only
4:54:50want Warriors in here that's why I'm not
4:54:53going to ever promote that inner circle
4:54:55I'm never going to show you how to sign
4:54:57up or apply you have to apply it's by
4:54:59application only and there's only ever
4:55:01going to be a 100 of us
4:55:07so it is what it is be I got to keep the
4:55:10the separation I got to make sure to
4:55:12reward those people that can find things
4:55:14I got to make sure to reward those
4:55:16people that are actually here not just
4:55:18Pastor buyers I'm sorry dude if you're
4:55:20here on YouTube Just For Today welcome I
4:55:22love you
4:55:23777 but if you're not going to come back
4:55:25tomorrow I'm sorry you can't be part of
4:55:27the Inner Circle the inner circle is
4:55:28only for the people that are really
4:55:30committed to this stuff like I am I'm
4:55:32here every single day
4:55:35dog I'm not going
4:55:38anywhere the only thing I'm going to do
4:55:40now is I'm going to add a 30 minute Zoom
4:55:42call at the end of the week for the
4:55:43Inner Circle that's it because I know
4:55:46this stuff is long but I'm never going
4:55:48to talk about it I'm never going to
4:55:50never going to be like yo join my inner
4:55:52circle because I don't want you in there
4:55:54I don't I only want the people that can
4:55:56figure out how to get in there in there
4:55:58and it's still an application process
4:56:02so it is what it is be I got to make
4:56:05this game a little bit hard to get into
4:56:09my inner circle because it's my inner
4:56:11it's my inner peace be it's my peace so
4:56:13if you're not a 777 gang you're not
4:56:16you're not welcome I'm sorry if you
4:56:17don't got Good Vibrations you're not
4:56:19welcome I'm sorry you're still welcome
4:56:21to watch my streams dude I'm going to be
4:56:23here every day I don't care I believe
4:56:24CO's a great equalizer that's why I'm
4:56:26going to keep sharing this stuff I know
4:56:27this is mind-blowing stuff all right
4:56:29this right here why while I'm rambling
4:56:32is literally why I brought a book today
4:56:34because I'm just going to keep going
4:56:35through this book instead of rambling
4:56:37it's just going to be so much better I
4:56:39promise you to so let's go over chapters
4:56:423 and four again I'm looking at basian
4:56:45statistics the fun way I'm just getting
4:56:47prepared to read this book I'm trying a
4:56:50new approach to learning here where you
4:56:52just digest and really more than digest
4:56:55it you really get comfortable with the
4:56:57the table contents of a book before
4:56:59reading it and then when you're reading
4:57:03you don't necessarily need to read every
4:57:04word um you can go ahead and look for
4:57:08the secrets that you're looking for you
4:57:10see what I'm saying like that's how this
4:57:13kid who was you know some Harvard kid
4:57:15that's like a doctor or whatever and you
4:57:17know one of those people that has to
4:57:18study like all the time like I I didn't
4:57:20ever learn how to study dude because I
4:57:22hated school I just I just ignored it
4:57:24you know so I never learned how to study
4:57:26I learned how to code by myself so I I
4:57:28know I it worked like whatever but um
4:57:32okay now moving onto the new
4:57:37chapters before we do the
4:57:42exercises I want you
4:57:45to explain them the table of
4:57:51contents like I'm 12 so I fully
4:57:57understand all the
4:58:00topics before ever reading the book
4:58:10go over these below
4:58:14topics
4:58:17please add
4:58:20examples so I
4:58:24understand okay um let's say
4:58:27combining
4:58:29probabilities
4:58:31abilities with
4:58:37and solving a comp number of two
4:58:46probabilities
4:58:48applying the product rule of
4:58:56probabilities
4:58:57combining
4:58:59probabilities with
4:59:03or what is
4:59:07mutually mutually
4:59:11exclusive verse
4:59:19not
4:59:21calculating or
4:59:26events using the
4:59:29sum rule for non
4:59:32mutually
4:59:35exclusive events
4:59:43calculating
4:59:45probability
4:59:50of getting a
4:59:53hefty
5:00:03fine the logic of
5:00:07uncertainty I'm just going to do
5:00:10this
5:00:14one I'm just going to do one now CU
5:00:17these are getting thick they're getting
5:00:19thick B so I want to just do one at a
5:00:21time see everything before I even read
5:00:23the
5:00:26book I'm going start pulling these into
5:00:30the the streams because I need to read
5:00:33these books anyways so again everything
5:00:36I do I'm G show you I'm G show you
5:00:38everything I do because you'll be able
5:00:40to make connections I'll never be able
5:00:41to make the logic of uncertainty when we
5:00:44talk about uncertainty we're talking
5:00:45about things we're not sure about
5:00:47probability helps us measure How likely
5:00:49these uncertain events are for example
5:00:52if you're not sure whether it will rain
5:00:54tomorrow you might say there's a 30%
5:00:57chance of rain this helps you decide
5:00:59whether to bring in an umbrella
5:01:01combining probabilities with an when you
5:01:03want to know the probability of two
5:01:05events happening together you use and
5:01:08for example what's the probability of
5:01:10rolling a four and flipping a coin to
5:01:14heads if the die has six sides and the
5:01:18coin has two sides you multiply their
5:01:20probabilities so P probability of
5:01:23rolling a four one to six P flipping
5:01:26heads2 and then P rolling a four and
5:01:29flipping heads so you do 16 * 1/2 = 112
5:01:33solving a combo of two probabilities to
5:01:35solve for a combination of two
5:01:37probabilities happening at the same time
5:01:39you use the use the and Rule like the
5:01:42previous example if you want to know the
5:01:44chance of getting a heads on a coin and
5:01:47rolling A3 on a die you multiply their
5:01:50individual probabilities applying the
5:01:52product rule of probabilities the
5:01:55product rule is used to find the
5:01:57probability of two independent events
5:01:59both happening independent means one
5:02:02event doesn't affect the other for
5:02:04example getting heads on a coin flip and
5:02:06rolling a five on a die so they're
5:02:08independent
5:02:11for example so independent means one
5:02:13event doesn't affect the other P heads
5:02:16and five so P of heads probability of
5:02:19heads and P of five again it's just
5:02:22multiplying them combining probabilities
5:02:24with or when you want to know the
5:02:26probability of either one event or
5:02:29another happening use the or for example
5:02:32what's the probability of rolling a two
5:02:35or a three on a
5:02:38die you you can add their probabilities
5:02:41so p is rolling a two P of rolling a
5:02:44three okay so or you just add them so 16
5:02:48+ 26 is 26 = 1/3 what is mutually
5:02:52exclusive versus not mutually exclusive
5:02:55two events that cannot happen at the
5:02:58same time so they're not mutually
5:02:59exclusive two events that cannot happen
5:03:02at the same time for example rolling a
5:03:04one and a two on a single die roll you
5:03:07can't roll both at the same time so
5:03:10they're mutually exclusive two events
5:03:12that cannot happen at the same time not
5:03:14mutually exclusive two events that can
5:03:16happen at the same time so they're not
5:03:18mutually exclusive for example drawing a
5:03:20card that is both red and a five from a
5:03:24deck of cards you can have a red five
5:03:28calculating or events for mutually
5:03:30exclusive events you just add their
5:03:32probabilities for example what's the
5:03:35probability of drawing a king or a queen
5:03:38from a deck of cards P of King 452 P of
5:03:41Queen
5:03:42452 so you just add them so it's eight
5:03:45and then you just do that thing using
5:03:47the sum rule for non-mutually exclusive
5:03:49events if events are not mutually
5:03:52exclusive they can happen together so
5:03:54they're not mutually exclusive mutually
5:03:55exclusive means that they can't happen
5:03:57together they can happen together they
5:03:58are not mutually exclusive you use the
5:04:01sum Rule and subtract the overlap for
5:04:03example what's the probability of
5:04:05drawing a heart or a face card so Jack
5:04:08queen king from the deck deck P of the
5:04:10heart is 13 out of 52 cuz there's four
5:04:13suits in a card P of face card is 12 out
5:04:17of 52 because there's only 12 in a thing
5:04:20p and so because there are three face
5:04:23cards in Hearts so it's three out of
5:04:2652
5:04:28yes so P of heart or face card P of
5:04:32heart okay and face card so you add
5:04:34those two okay calculating probability
5:04:36of getting a hefty fine to calculate the
5:04:39probability getting a he to fine you
5:04:41need to know the chances of the
5:04:43conditions that lead to the fine for
5:04:45example if there's a 20% chance of
5:04:48speeding and if you got caught speeding
5:04:50there's a 50% chance of getting Hefty
5:04:52find so p is speeding there's a 20%
5:04:54chance P of
5:04:57find and feeding speeding is 50% so P of
5:05:01f p of speeding so you multiply them
5:05:04equals 10% I hope these explanation yo
5:05:06super helpful super super helpful
5:05:10chapter
5:05:133 why would you not let me do that
5:05:25do the logic of uncertainty
5:05:40the logic of
5:05:56uncertainty so you can't just delete
5:05:59huh delete
5:06:01delete all
5:06:04this now past it
5:06:11okay this looks to be running well now
5:06:12I'm going keep it running for a bit
5:06:14while we do the exercises of this
5:06:16chapter uh because I think this is a
5:06:18great way to to learn and code at the
5:06:21same
5:06:22time CU since AI is doing most of the
5:06:25coding for us I feel like there's just
5:06:27been a lot of um lost productivity here
5:06:32sometimes now I'll just be like yapping
5:06:35and you know I know some people come for
5:06:36the yapping and the the in between C the
5:06:40thoughts so I appreciate you so much for
5:06:43like caring about what I think about and
5:06:46I appreciate that so so much but I've
5:06:48got a long list of things that I'm
5:06:49trying to attack here every single day
5:06:52so I'm going to try to cut the yapping
5:06:54as much as possible and instead of
5:06:57yapping I'm going to be studying while
5:07:00we build because there's so many times
5:07:03that it's just like yo
5:07:06moev shut the f up let's do something
5:07:09let's let's keep it going you know what
5:07:11I'm saying I just want to keep it going
5:07:13so I'm going to go ahead and past in
5:07:15these exercises okay okay now let's go
5:07:20through these
5:07:25exercises so I
5:07:29under understand
5:07:34them
5:07:38perfect
5:08:08e
5:08:38e
5:09:08e e
5:09:50all right so this looks like it's doing
5:09:52well so I'm going to go ahead and say
5:09:55debug is false and then I want to I want
5:09:57to step test it for a
5:10:00while make sure it works because this
5:10:02looks like it's adding all the
5:10:04liquidation data nicely so you can see
5:10:06452 lines and remember this is what
5:10:09we're doing doing I know we are doing a
5:10:11lot here today but whatever we're
5:10:13building liquidation bot you already
5:10:15know you're here you've been here
5:10:17so I'm going to go ahead and finish
5:10:20these three
5:10:22examples exercises and
5:10:25then we're going to move on to next the
5:10:28next part of the liquidation bot because
5:10:30this is good and um yeah if you have any
5:10:34questions feel free to throw them in the
5:10:36chat I'll check out the chat here in a
5:10:38bit uh every single day I'm here live my
5:10:41name is Mev I believe codes great
5:10:43equalizer that's why I share all this
5:10:44information so exercise one what is the
5:10:46probability of uh of rolling a 20 three
5:10:49times in a row on a 20-sided dice
5:10:51solution to find the probability of
5:10:53rolling a 20 three times in a row we
5:10:56need to calculate the probability of
5:10:58each event and then multiply them since
5:11:00each rle is
5:11:02independent that's right so 1 out of 20
5:11:05on 20 side of dice and then 1 out of 20
5:11:07is 1 out of 8,000 so the probably is 1
5:11:09out of 8,000 exercise 2 the weather
5:11:12report says there's a 10% chance of rain
5:11:15tomorrow and you forget your umbrella
5:11:17half the time you go out what is the
5:11:19probability that you'll be caught in the
5:11:21rain without an umbrella solution we
5:11:24need to find the probability of two
5:11:25events happening together it rains and
5:11:27you forgot your umbrella so P of rain is
5:11:31there's a 10% chance of rain okay so P
5:11:34of forgot umbrella is 50% chance to
5:11:36since these are independent we multiply
5:11:38their prob prob abilities again so it's
5:11:40just 10 times there's a 5% chance okay
5:11:43so exercise three raw eggs have a 1 in
5:11:4629,000 probability of having salmonella
5:11:49if you eat two raw eggs um what's the
5:11:52probability of getting salmonella we
5:11:55find the probability find the
5:11:57probability that at least one of the two
5:12:00eggs has salmonella this is easier to
5:12:03calculate using the complement
5:12:06rule the probability of not eating any
5:12:09egg with salmonella okay let P equals
5:12:12salmonella is 1 and
5:12:1429,000 the probability of not getting
5:12:18salmonella from one egg is p of
5:12:20salmonella equals 1 minus the
5:12:23probability okay so it's one minus this
5:12:25this is not getting it for two eggs the
5:12:26probability of getting it is p
5:12:30salmonella one minus okay it's to the
5:12:32second per power I wonder why first
5:12:35let's ex approximate the 1 - 120 over 29
5:12:40so that equals 999 99% then now we
5:12:43Square it uh because they going there's
5:12:48two chances so the probability of
5:12:49getting salmonella from the at least one
5:12:52egg is p of salmonella which is one
5:12:55minus the probability is
5:13:00this so the probability is this wait so
5:13:04see one at least one egg one minus prob
5:13:08two eggs okay salel of 2 eggs and this
5:13:10is the probability of two eggs and this
5:13:12is the probability of two eggs here it's
5:13:15this okay so exercise four what is the
5:13:17probability of either flipping two heads
5:13:20in two coin tosses or rolling three
5:13:23sixes in a three-sided die what is the
5:13:26probability of either flipping two heads
5:13:28in two coin tosses or rolling three
5:13:32sixes and a six-sided
5:13:35DOT first let's calculate the
5:13:37probability separately so P one and A2
5:13:41or 1 over two and then this is p over
5:13:43two heads is 2 and two okay so it's 25%
5:13:48chance now rolling 3 six is one and six
5:13:51and this is 126 and then we just
5:13:53multiply them or or we or um oh so we
5:13:56plus okay so now use the or rule since
5:13:59these events are independent we add
5:14:01their probabilities two heads or 3 sixes
5:14:04P2 heads P3
5:14:07sixes we add those convert the common
5:14:11denominator so how do you get 26 54 66
5:14:1655 as it probably 55 216 actually made
5:14:19sense okay so sweet um I think that I
5:14:23have a little bit of
5:14:26a background in this
5:14:28stuff so I mean if you're intimidated by
5:14:31this don't let this stop you from
5:14:33automating your trading of course
5:14:35because this is I'm on year four you
5:14:37know so this stuff I've been working
5:14:39with probabilities for at least four
5:14:41years but honestly much longer because I
5:14:44come from gaming so gaming is all about
5:14:47probabilities and all that stuff so
5:14:49without officially ever learning this
5:14:50stuff I kind of intuitively have used it
5:14:54a lot
5:14:55so it's it comes it might come easier to
5:14:58me maybe this is hard if it's hard don't
5:15:00worry about it dude because honestly you
5:15:02don't need any of it for automating
5:15:04you're trading this is just like a I'm
5:15:07trying to squeeze a little extra Alpha
5:15:09out of the batch that's it that's all
5:15:11I'm doing so I'm going places others
5:15:13won't go and this is where we're going
5:15:16so I'm haven't even read this book yet
5:15:18and it's all in a book and it's pretty
5:15:21inexpensive basian statistics the Funway
5:15:24just go like this Amazon if you want it
5:15:27I again there's no I don't have any
5:15:29affiliation with this there's no
5:15:31affiliate link or anything like
5:15:33that this is funny
5:15:36because bayy and statistics to fun away
5:15:39this Brain Cap is what we were looking
5:15:40at yesterday so it's only 33 bucks and
5:15:43this is what I'm literally looking at
5:15:45right now and trying to go over the
5:15:47table of contents to get a good view of
5:15:49it before I dive all the way in and
5:15:53really read
5:16:07it
5:16:37e
5:17:07e e
5:17:58all right dude I know this is a lot so
5:18:00let's just keep it
5:18:03going so did this help me understand it
5:18:06absolutely so I actually want to go
5:18:08ahead head here and now that we have
5:18:11chapter 3 in there and chapter 4 we'll
5:18:14go ahead
5:18:16and chapter three here chapter three so
5:18:21books basian statistics the fun
5:18:24way
5:18:28um okay so this looks like it's Gucci
5:18:31now so we can go ahead and do the rest
5:18:33what are we going to do now so
5:18:40now I have the lick data that I need and
5:18:43honestly I want to run this lick data
5:18:45here from a different file I'm going to
5:18:48go go ahead and say here main copy path
5:18:52copy path here and here I'm going to
5:18:55launch another one of these really
5:18:57because now we can work on this stuff
5:18:59let's say cond cond
5:19:03activate um tlow okay and then python
5:19:06I'm going to just have this running now
5:19:08this is going to be the same file as
5:19:10this pretty much but it's just improved
5:19:13well you know what I should
5:19:15do no I'm not going to do that I'm going
5:19:18to let this run by itself I was going to
5:19:20say I should just run it from here I
5:19:21should fix this one now that it's
5:19:24updated
5:19:28but honestly I should fix this I should
5:19:32fix these though let's make sure that
5:19:34they work
5:19:37um Jupiter B
5:19:46just go ahead and do that because that's
5:19:47going to be super big for
5:19:52me where are the Jupiter Bots here are
5:19:55these Jupiter Bots okay yeah um tape big
5:20:01licks licks big licks big
5:20:09so this is a different
5:20:18file what should I do how should I do
5:20:32this file name is binance py okay I'm
5:20:35just going to do it this way
5:20:42ah dude I don't know if I want to mess
5:20:43this up
5:20:48though the above
5:20:51works the above works
5:20:56great please don't change anything of
5:21:01the
5:21:02printing of the below code it's a
5:21:07different bu
5:21:09but please use the eror the uh the
5:21:16logic you used above in order to
5:21:23reconnect
5:21:26smoothly because the below code doesn't
5:21:33yet okay so this is from here this is a
5:21:36different file but since we're here we
5:21:38might as well fix this one as well right
5:21:46okay I hope this doesn't break it I hope
5:21:49it doesn't break
5:21:51it let's just go ahead and go through
5:21:53the code with
5:22:03it okay how's all that stuff process
5:22:07message asyn
5:22:13lick I'm going to call this uh licks
5:22:19rename
5:22:22pre 63
5:22:24okay and then we're going to say licks.
5:22:31py okay and then we're going to do that
5:22:34and then I'm just curious to see if this
5:22:35still works here
5:22:41paste it in okay bin is copy path okay
5:22:45copy path here and then we're going to
5:22:47say the path is up here okay false
5:22:50that's good okay let's go ahead and see
5:22:53if this changes
5:22:58Tings see if it still gets the licks out
5:23:00here okay I'm also going to do this for
5:23:03licks big
5:23:04here same with this one
5:23:12same with this one don't change the
5:23:17Prints but update the code to handle
5:23:23the web socket drops like you do
5:23:29above
5:23:32okay so we know this liquidations are
5:23:35still on so this should work here and
5:23:38I'm just just taking a half a second in
5:23:39order to go back to my scanners because
5:23:42being able to see all the liquidation
5:23:44colors is so so important that said
5:23:47we're building a bot to trade this
5:23:49automatically but I'm just trying to
5:23:51kill eight stone eight birds with one
5:23:53stone you
5:23:55know throw your chats in the twitch here
5:23:58and I will answer them anytime here in
5:24:00the next like I don't know I'll be
5:24:02better in like 20 15 10 I don't know be
5:24:04here though don't leave because we're
5:24:07we're double we're double Diamond this
5:24:08today because we got to this is how we
5:24:11do it from here on out we're learning
5:24:12two things at once always it's harder to
5:24:15do but it's fun it's more fun I want to
5:24:18keep going as hard as possible every
5:24:20single day 777 to you dude every single
5:24:23day no way no way are we stopping this
5:24:26ever so I'm going say licks big
5:24:32pre pre
5:24:3563 okay let's go licks big now Li big.
5:24:40py okay boom copy paste copy paste okay
5:24:45sick now let's run it let's see if we
5:24:47can get this running okay that looks
5:24:49Gucci okay let's go ahead now and we'll
5:24:52go back we have these out of the way
5:24:54we'll keep an eye on them down here
5:24:56these are different files we just
5:24:57updated boom we got the Liquidation on
5:25:00the 5K on the bbus I don't know what
5:25:02that is dude but it is what it is I
5:25:05haven't picked my top four yet here
5:25:07these are the top four tokens on or
5:25:09these are the top tokens on Solana in
5:25:12the last hour and I need to check those
5:25:15we'll get to that soon I want to make
5:25:17sure these liquidations continue to come
5:25:19through let's see if we're at a point of
5:25:20liquidations we would need to price to
5:25:23go down here or up here in order to get
5:25:25some liquidations to come
5:25:29through Market opens in 9 minutes let's
5:25:31see what's going on with Tesla up3
5:25:35coinbase up 2.8 wow
5:25:39Nvidia up
5:25:413.2
5:25:46wow Robin Hood up
5:25:504.0 so this should be an interesting
5:25:53morning we'll see what
5:25:55happens you can see the liquidations
5:25:57coming through which is good okay now
5:26:00what do we want to do from here well I
5:26:02have this lick data okay we got all this
5:26:05lick data now this lick data here oops I
5:26:08almost deleted it so let's go ahead here
5:26:11and oh we don't have any headers on this
5:26:13lick data
5:26:21dang see if we got headers on this
5:26:25one I think the headers are nice to have
5:26:28to understand what it is but I guess not
5:26:31I guess we don't get it
5:26:33dude build okay this is the price this
5:26:38the amount this is the
5:26:42time and this is
5:26:48the who knows B who
5:26:51knows here's an example of my
5:26:54data um here's an example of the data
5:26:57here is an example here is an example
5:27:02example of the DF data
5:27:09here's the code that produces it here is
5:27:13the code that produces
5:27:17it please build me a
5:27:22separate script that looks at that data
5:27:28the path is
5:27:30this lick data lick data lick data copy
5:27:34path okay and then
5:27:38the
5:27:40script
5:27:41will total up the amount of
5:27:48Liquidations in the past 15 5
5:27:53minutes 15 minutes 30 minutes 1
5:28:00hour 90 minutes 2
5:28:05hours and 4 hours
5:28:08and print and save those those to
5:28:12a DF print them
5:28:16out out and then save to
5:28:21a to a
5:28:24CSV called
5:28:28um recent
5:28:31licks
5:28:33CV okay let's see what she can do and
5:28:36while she does that let's go ahead and
5:28:38keep on going here with uh chapter 4
5:28:41chapter four of basan Statistics the fun
5:28:44way so so fun B so I mean let's go ahead
5:28:49here and print out okay okay great let's
5:28:53move to chapter 4
5:28:57please explain like I'm 12 the following
5:29:03topics so creating a binomial
5:29:10probability
5:29:12distribution okay um
5:29:16structure of a
5:29:19binomial
5:29:23distribution counting
5:29:26outcomes with
5:29:28binomial
5:29:32coefficient comatrix advanced
5:29:41counting
5:29:43calculating
5:29:45probability of the
5:29:49desired
5:29:52outcome gotcha
5:29:55games how this all
5:30:03um all is can be used be used in trading
5:30:08okay so this is going to be the review
5:30:10here so chapter 4 here is coming up
5:30:13chapter 4 I don't know what the title
5:30:15would be binomial
5:30:17binomial
5:30:20probability
5:30:22distribution okay so now we'll go ahead
5:30:24and open this up here this is all going
5:30:26to be deleted because this is not it
5:30:28anymore and this is an amazing way to
5:30:31warm up to a book in my opinion now it's
5:30:34a new opinion it's a new opinion B let's
5:30:37go ahead and regenerate dude I know
5:30:38you're seeing sketch stuff going on my
5:30:40screen it's because I'm working with two
5:30:41of you yes okay I'm sorry chat gbt if
5:30:44you need me to upgrade just tell me sure
5:30:46thing let's go through these topics in a
5:30:48simple way with examples creating a
5:30:51binomial Pro probability distribution a
5:30:54binomial probability distribution is
5:30:56like a recipe that tells us the
5:30:57likelihood of getting a certain number
5:30:59of successes in a fixed number of tries
5:31:03for example if you flip a coin 10 times
5:31:05you might want to know the probability
5:31:07of getting exactly six heads the
5:31:10binomial distribution helps us figure
5:31:12that out structure of a binomial
5:31:15distribution a binomial distribution has
5:31:18a few Key Parts n the number of Trials
5:31:21EG flipping a coin 10 times P the
5:31:24probability of success on each trial the
5:31:27chance of getting heads which is 0.5 for
5:31:30a Fair coin K the number of successes we
5:31:33are interested in EG getting exactly six
5:31:36heads it tells us the probabilities of
5:31:39getting 01 to up to the end successes
5:31:42counting outcomes with binomial
5:31:45coefficient the binomial coefficient
5:31:47helps us count the number of ways we can
5:31:49get K successes in N trials it's like
5:31:53figuring out how many different ways you
5:31:56can arrange six heads in 10 coin flips
5:31:59the formula looks like this
5:32:03so NK over n k okay the explanation
5:32:09symbol means
5:32:10factorial which is a way to to multiply
5:32:14numbers for example five equals 5 time
5:32:17this okay that makes sense combinat Trix
5:32:20Advanced counting combinat Trix
5:32:23combinate tox is a fancy word for
5:32:26advanced counting it helps us figure out
5:32:29how many ways we can arrange or combine
5:32:33things for example if you have five
5:32:36different toys and you want to to know
5:32:38how many ways you can choose two out of
5:32:40the five common Matrix is gives us the
5:32:44answer we use combinations and
5:32:47permutations to count these
5:32:51arrangements okay
5:32:53interesting so here we have this new
5:32:56tool we just built here's a separate
5:32:58script that will read the data from your
5:33:00CSV calculate the number total amount of
5:33:05liquidations for the specified time
5:33:07intervals and then save these
5:33:09calculations to a new CSV okay if we
5:33:12have this correct we should have all of
5:33:14our liquidation data here perfect okay
5:33:17it's coming in here too so I can stop it
5:33:19here it's probably double printing it
5:33:21right now that's okay though for now
5:33:23because this isn't too serious I want to
5:33:26get it very serious of course I'm going
5:33:28to launch it to my server when it's
5:33:29robust okay so it's going to be running
5:33:32at all times dude yes I know I do the
5:33:35things that others won't do so I'm just
5:33:37going to keep doing that
5:33:42dude every single day we're going to
5:33:44going to go ahead and attack something
5:33:46different viciously every single day we
5:33:48might build on something else that's
5:33:50okay just keep showing up dog 777 leave
5:33:53with love and everything you want will
5:33:56come into your world that's why I show
5:33:58everything cuz I'm trying to leave with
5:34:00love the best thing I can do the most I
5:34:02can give right now is my time I'm
5:34:04attacking the most vicious industry in
5:34:06the world and nobody sharing this
5:34:08information so I share it I believe CO's
5:34:10a great equalizer dude for me it
5:34:13absolutely is okay
5:34:16recent
5:34:18licks.
5:34:20py and this should be licks dude I
5:34:23missed the
5:34:25S recent licks okay let's go ahead and
5:34:29put this code in there output file name
5:34:31what is that output file name it's
5:34:33recent licks as well so let's go ahead
5:34:36here and say
5:34:38recent licks and I think this is getting
5:34:41a little long now so let's go ahead and
5:34:44say data okay data here let's put them
5:34:47in there let's put them in there let's
5:34:48clean it up let's stay clean let's say
5:34:51stay all nice and clean here oh snap it
5:34:54just made that over here though why
5:34:57because I told it to my guy look at that
5:35:00okay so how do we fix that well we got
5:35:03to go ahead and update our main here and
5:35:05I want to go ahead and say lick data C
5:35:07copy path okay let's go ahead and make
5:35:10that path just a little bit different
5:35:12okay boom let's go ahead and delete this
5:35:14data here let's go ahead and say move
5:35:16the trash never ask me that again
5:35:19actually please do because I'm a Noob
5:35:21dude so I want to go ahead here and
5:35:23where did I find that file here it is so
5:35:26this is where we're running the file so
5:35:27I'm just going to rerun it okay now it's
5:35:29not going to make a new folder every
5:35:32time it's just going to go ahead
5:35:36and put it here delete it okay it should
5:35:39put it in there now so recent licks here
5:35:42it should go ahead and start populating
5:35:44once we get some liquidations but dude
5:35:46it didn't it's
5:35:51not cuz it's right here
5:35:54dog there it is recent licks though
5:35:58recent licks is here so you can see we
5:36:00need to update this lick data here copy
5:36:03path okay paste in the lick data here
5:36:05path right here if I'm going too fast
5:36:07it's because you're not caught up to
5:36:09speed B get caught up to speed B all you
5:36:11got to do is keep showing up pass the
5:36:13777s tap the Lizzy whatever you need to
5:36:16do dog whatever you need to do in order
5:36:19to get here on time every single day
5:36:21we're here 8:00 a.m. live the market
5:36:23just open so I want to definitely go
5:36:25ahead and look at that but first I want
5:36:26to go ahead and print out the totals
5:36:28make sure that this code works you can
5:36:31see order time trade it does not show
5:36:33that so my you can see that you can see
5:36:37that we have the below air
5:36:44probably
5:36:46because we don't have columns on our
5:36:51data
5:36:54set oh
5:37:00snap I didn't put that I didn't put the
5:37:03error in there silly goose
5:37:07okay so let's see if it can figure it
5:37:09out it has all the code that I
5:37:12need calculating probabilities of
5:37:14desired outcome to calculate the
5:37:16probability of getting a certain number
5:37:18of successes k and a number of Trials n
5:37:21we use binomial probability formula so
5:37:24this is the formula
5:37:26here NK counts the number of ways to get
5:37:30K
5:37:31successes PK is the probability of those
5:37:34K successes happening
5:37:391 minus P to the NK is the probability
5:37:42of the other trials being
5:37:46failures for example if you want to find
5:37:48the probability of getting exactly six
5:37:50heads in a in a 10 coin flips it would
5:37:53be PX equals 6 and don't worry I don't
5:37:57understand this either
5:37:59so I haven't even read the book yet so
5:38:01this is just to get everything in my
5:38:03mind to be at a place of power when I do
5:38:06read the book gotcha games are like
5:38:08virtual slot machines and video games
5:38:10where you spend money or points to get
5:38:12random items the binomial distribution
5:38:14can help you figure out the odds of
5:38:16getting rare items for example if you
5:38:18know the chance of getting a rare item
5:38:20is 5% each time you play you can
5:38:22calculate the probability of getting
5:38:24that item at least once in 10 tries how
5:38:27this can all be used in trading in
5:38:29trading we can use these Concepts to
5:38:31manage risk and make better decisions
5:38:34for example binomial distribution helps
5:38:36us understand the probability of certain
5:38:39trading outcomes like making a certain
5:38:41number of successful trades out of a
5:38:44series of Trades combinate
5:38:48combinatoric helps us figure out
5:38:50different ways to arrange trades and
5:38:53manage portfolios probability
5:38:55calculations helps us estimate the
5:38:58chances of achieving our financial goals
5:39:00or encountering certain Risk by
5:39:02understanding these probabilities
5:39:03Traders can make more informed decisions
5:39:05about when to enter or exit trades how
5:39:08much to invest and how much to manage on
5:39:10their trades it did help bro thank
5:39:14you I'm going just post it all in here
5:39:17and then next move I'm going to do is do
5:39:19the exercises dude let's go ahead and go
5:39:21back to see what Gigi went ahead and put
5:39:23out since our data set doesn't have the
5:39:26columns is missing let's update the
5:39:27script to handle the data by explicitly
5:39:29defining the columns when it's rolling
5:39:32will ensure the script handles the
5:39:34datetime conversion okay perfect
5:39:39I need to update this so it has my new
5:39:41paths but that's okay we'll just go
5:39:43ahead here and this one time I'll let
5:39:45her
5:39:46ride you can see there's some
5:39:48liquidations coming through those
5:39:50liquidations dude I don't know what
5:39:52they're doing why are they gambling why
5:39:55why we haven't even looked at what's
5:39:57going on in the market here today it
5:39:58just opened it's okay we'll get there
5:40:00soon we're doing a 10,000 things at once
5:40:04because we are going faster than others
5:40:08there we go you can see total
5:40:09liquidations here 0000 0 in indicating
5:40:13that's incorrect okay
5:40:16so I've updated my
5:40:18paths I've updated my
5:40:22paths make sure to use
5:40:26them below you can see you can see there
5:40:32are zeros in the
5:40:35liquidation data
5:40:44here is code that shows how to sum up
5:40:51lick
5:40:52data how how we how
5:40:56we summed up lick data in the past
5:41:02actually we didn't really
5:41:04but well maybe
5:41:08maybe this code here if we look at licks
5:41:11big here see licks big here did we just
5:41:14go ahead and say file
5:41:18name no we
5:41:21didn't let's just go ahead and give it
5:41:23all this code though I'm going go ahead
5:41:26and get those exercises going now while
5:41:29this runs I'm going to go ahead and
5:41:30screenshot the exercises of chapter 4
5:42:05that's one through four though that's
5:42:06pretty good dude chapters 1 through 4 we
5:42:10are aware of now I can read them with
5:42:21ease drop box not Dropbox air drop air
5:42:25drop air drop coming in air drop coming
5:42:27in
5:42:46she should be done with that code by now
5:42:48so we won't actually go over these right
5:42:50now but we'll have them queued up for
5:42:52when we go back and I think this is
5:42:55already for me I'm learning a lot more
5:42:57today than sometimes when I'm waiting
5:42:59for AI to Output stuff let's do these
5:43:05exercises now okay so she'll outp put
5:43:08that and this lady over here the issue
5:43:10with getting all zeros in liquidation
5:43:12could be due to how the time intervals
5:43:14are being calculated or the data not
5:43:16matching the expected time intervals
5:43:18let's add some debugging prints
5:43:23okay run it dude
5:43:38so it added some debugging Prints but I
5:43:40feel like I can do this I can take it
5:43:41from here GG because I don't know what
5:43:44you're doing the issue seems to be the
5:43:46data is not falling within the specic
5:43:49specified time intervals let's add more
5:43:54debugging the uh the newest data shows
5:43:59at the bottom of the CSV I don't know if
5:44:04that is helpful to know
5:44:14it's helpful to know the newest data is
5:44:15the bottom of CSV let's ensure that we
5:44:17are processing the most recent data
5:44:19correctly so maybe she was doing it
5:44:21incorrectly I don't know let's go ahead
5:44:22and see if we can get regenerate
5:44:26here get this going seems to have gone
5:44:29wrong I guess it can't do two at the
5:44:30same time sad sad sad
5:44:37yeah it's not letting two users go at
5:44:39the same time I'll have to jump on over
5:44:40to
5:44:41luxie Luxy baby girl it might be your
5:44:44time might be your time to shine might
5:44:47be your
5:45:03time oh here we go it's helpful to know
5:45:06that let's Ure okay see if we can get
5:45:10it
5:45:13huh try different approach because we're
5:45:15still getting zeros
5:45:27B still
5:45:29getting
5:45:31zeros and
5:45:33the
5:45:35data the newest newest data from the CSV
5:45:41is below so recent licks lick data okay
5:45:46this isn't the newest data
5:45:57here all right let's go ahead and see
5:46:00let's check this here because maybe this
5:46:02no it's it's pointing at the right place
5:46:04licks recent licks so you can see it's
5:46:06giving us the wrong data here I wonder
5:46:09what's going on let's go ahead and see
5:46:10if this is started yet no okay she's not
5:46:14going to let me do this double time
5:46:15thing it appears that the time stamps in
5:46:18your data are significantly ahead of the
5:46:20current time this could be due to your
5:46:21system time or time zone to handle this
5:46:23will compare the order trade times to
5:46:27against the maximum time stamp rather
5:46:29than the current time
5:46:38maybe maybe the time
5:46:42stamps are in
5:46:45UTC let's see let's go ahead and see
5:46:48this data here recent data CSV lick data
5:46:51here let's go ahead and see what this
5:46:53data the newest data what time is it
5:46:55then let's go ahead here Epoch time
5:46:57Epoch time get comfy with it dog Epoch
5:47:00converter get comfy with that Epoch time
5:47:02dog this is Monday June 3rd at 1:42 p.m.
5:47:06so so I think this is definitely UTC
5:47:09time yeah so our time's
5:47:15on do with this information you need I
5:47:18just went ahead and got it so you can
5:47:21see maybe it's in UTC
5:47:23time I'm
5:47:27in I'm
5:47:30on
5:47:32a here is the latest epoch
5:47:37I'm in the data and
5:47:42the
5:47:43conversion on a
5:47:46website so it's just getting the time it
5:47:49shows that the time is much ahead of us
5:47:50and that's because I'm on one time and
5:47:53it's using UTC time what is UTC time I
5:47:55don't know Google it
5:48:03bro let's address the exercises one
5:48:06based on 1 by one so what are the
5:48:08parameters of binomial distribution for
5:48:11probability of rolling either a one or a
5:48:1420 on the 20 side of dice if we roll 12
5:48:17times well the parameters for the
5:48:19binomial distribution are n the number
5:48:21of Trials
5:48:22rules P the probability of success one
5:48:25or 20 K the number of successes desired
5:48:30outcomes for this problem Nal 12 since
5:48:34we roll the die 12 times P equal P of
5:48:38rolling one or a 20 equals two out of 20
5:48:41two out of 20 chances equals 1 out of 10
5:48:44chances so the parameters are n equals
5:48:4812 the and then p is 1/10th okay there
5:48:51are four aces in a deck of 52 cards if
5:48:54you pull a card return the card then
5:48:58reshuffle and pull a card again how many
5:49:01ways can you pull just one8 in five po
5:49:04solution this is a binomial problem
5:49:06probability problem where we want
5:49:09exactly one success 1/8 in five trials
5:49:12polls okay to find the number of ways to
5:49:16get exactly one8 and five poles we use
5:49:18binomial coefficients so this is the
5:49:21five and one so we're looking for uh if
5:49:25you pull a card return a five then
5:49:27reshuffle and pull again how many times
5:49:30can you pull just one ace and five pull
5:49:33so you get five okay one this is a
5:49:36factorial so it's 5 * 4 * 3 so there are
5:49:40five ways to
5:49:41pull just one ace and five PS so one ace
5:49:45five five factorial don't worry it's not
5:49:47fully clicking for me yet either so I'll
5:49:50come back to these exercises in a second
5:49:52let's see what GG had oh she did nothing
5:49:55okay that's where I need to make sure I
5:49:56need to make sure she's outputting
5:49:57before we leave well peace exercise for
5:50:00the example in question two what is the
5:50:03probability of of pulling five aces in
5:50:0610 PS remember the card is shuffled back
5:50:08in the deck when it's pulled so this is
5:50:11another binomial probability problem we
5:50:13want to find the probability of pulling
5:50:15exactly five Aces and 10 poles using the
5:50:18binomial probability formula which is
5:50:20this so n equals 10 K = 5 p = 4 out of
5:50:2652 1 out of 13 so p x = 5 10 5 135 I'm
5:50:34just getting this in my mind so it
5:50:35doesn't all make sense yet I haven't
5:50:37even read the book yet calculating the
5:50:39probabilities PX
5:50:41okay just want to see it all
5:50:44okay let's see what happens here and say
5:50:47thank you for the clarification the time
5:50:49stamps in your data are in UTC we need
5:50:51to adjust your time zone as when
5:50:53calculating into the intervals here is
5:50:55the updated script okay let's go ahead
5:50:57and see the order time is UTC perfect
5:51:00okay convert American Puerto Rico time
5:51:03okay
5:51:04dope big big here 245 254 sorry I'm
5:51:09absolutely dyslexic but it's okay you
5:51:11can do this too dude we all got our our
5:51:14disabilities or whatever and um if yeah
5:51:18it's just crazy dude it's crazy it's
5:51:19crazy you can do anything you want you
5:51:21just have to move the boat that way you
5:51:24got to move the plane that way tilt it
5:51:26that way dude tilt it whichever way
5:51:27you're trying to tilt it dude it's all
5:51:29on you dude you got this be I'm here
5:51:32with you 777 every single day do you
5:51:34need to watch this every day I don't
5:51:36know dude but make sure you getting your
5:51:384 hours in every single day 777 at the
5:51:40end of the week we will do a review for
5:51:43the Inner Circle the Inner Circle can be
5:51:45found somewhere by going to this page on
5:51:48the there's a link in the description
5:51:49for the Alo trade camp this is where I
5:51:52teach you step by step how to automate
5:51:53your trading over the course of next 14
5:51:5615 days I'll show you step by step
5:51:58everything I know the things that I wish
5:52:00I had when I got started there's 100%
5:52:02money back guarantee I know I'm a random
5:52:04dude on the internet so I put that there
5:52:06make it super easy for you to to get
5:52:08your money back immediately whenever you
5:52:11want so you can always rest assured that
5:52:14hey if you don't want this anymore you
5:52:16can just delete it out of your life and
5:52:19get your money back so you can go ahead
5:52:21and do that um if you want to join the
5:52:23Inner Circle there's a place to get to
5:52:25my notion on this page at the bottom and
5:52:27you'll have to find how to apply to the
5:52:29Inner Circle because Inner Circle
5:52:31obviously for people that are absolutely
5:52:34vicious and going at this industry at as
5:52:36hard as I am so you can see the time
5:52:38zone calculation first changes to
5:52:41converts it to the local time zone okay
5:52:44perfect so now we have these recent
5:52:46licks here and they should have the full
5:52:48number okay perfect so there was a in
5:52:51the last five minutes there was a 1
5:52:55point5 million in
5:52:59licks in the last 4
5:53:02hours there was $4.3 million in licks
5:53:09how can I test this how can how can I
5:53:13test this code to make sure the math is
5:53:18right
5:53:19and it's going back back to
5:53:27the
5:53:29exact amount of time we
5:53:33want just curious their thoughts oh my
5:53:36goodness see this is killing me today
5:53:39B I think it's cuz I got two terminals
5:53:41open or two uh whatever you want to call
5:53:44those so I think I'm going to have to
5:53:46switch over to luxie for the rest of
5:53:48this training but it's all good I'm just
5:53:51training myself on the
5:53:54uh the
5:53:59stuff the stuff we need be so to test
5:54:03the script and sure math is correct you
5:54:05can follow the create a small sample
5:54:07data set that you manually verify oh
5:54:11nice check the sum of
5:54:31liquidations
5:54:33well I tend to believe it this is four
5:54:37.3
5:54:39million in the last four
5:54:41hours I can visually see
5:54:45here what is this 42 it's 42 minute it's
5:54:49a 50 minute right now in the last seven
5:54:50minutes I can visually see6 25 2
5:54:5626 um like half a mil so I tend to
5:55:01believe it um I feel like we've got to
5:55:04the place we need to get to and in order
5:55:06to keep going and we're mobbing today
5:55:08this is crazy we've got a lot done here
5:55:11I want to go ahead before we move
5:55:12forward I want to go ahead and finish
5:55:14this last exercise or these last two
5:55:17exercises when you're searching for a
5:55:19new job it's always helpful to have more
5:55:21than one offer on the table so you can
5:55:30use so you can use it in negotiations if
5:55:33you have a 1 probability of receiving a
5:55:36job offer when you interview with seven
5:55:39companies in a month what is the
5:55:41probability you'll have at least two
5:55:44competing offers by the end of the month
5:55:46so solution we need to find the
5:55:48probability of getting at least two
5:55:50offers out of seven interviews using the
5:55:52binomial distribution we can say X2 = 1
5:55:57x under two X2 equal PX PX where P is5
5:56:05okay and equal 2 and N is
5:56:137 and then you wow this math is getting
5:56:16tough
5:56:22B just want to see it all just want to
5:56:24see it all before I read the book so the
5:56:26probability of getting at least two
5:56:28competing offers is approximately 3 423
5:56:32exercise 5 you get a bunch of recruiter
5:56:34emails and find out that you have 25
5:56:36interviews lined up in the next month
5:56:38unfortunately you know this will leave
5:56:41you exhausted and the probability of
5:56:43getting an offer will drop to 1110th if
5:56:46you're tired you really don't want to go
5:56:48on this many interviews unless you are
5:56:52at least twice as likely to get the two
5:56:54competing offers are you more likely to
5:56:57get at least two competing offers if you
5:57:00go for 25 interviews or just stick with
5:57:04seven so solution we need to compare the
5:57:07probabilities of getting at least two
5:57:09offers in scenarios okay 25 is p = 1 out
5:57:13of 10 so P 1 minus p x 10
5:57:192 it's not under that's the thing so I'm
5:57:22not that's why like skipping through
5:57:24this we'll have to read read the
5:57:26book that's what the book's for dude PX
5:57:29equal Z
5:57:322.0.1 * 1 PX
5:57:36probability
5:57:38X okay so for 25 interviews the
5:57:40probability is approximately 728 seven
5:57:43interviews P = 15 we already calculated
5:57:47this in exercise 4 since
5:57:49728 is over Point not it's not over
5:57:52though what does this
5:57:54mean go deeper onto
5:57:57this go deeper on
5:58:01these things that look like more than or
5:58:08greater
5:58:16than cuz I don't think they mean that
5:58:27right let's go ahead and copy all this
5:58:30here these are examples and I'm going to
5:58:31put them on the book section here and
5:58:34put the examples here
5:58:41okay and then I'm also going to put
5:58:43whatever do she says here because I'm
5:58:45confused on this part but that's okay I
5:58:47haven't even read the book
5:58:50yet I'll read the book
5:58:52soon after I get aware of everything so
5:58:56sure let's dive deeper into the concepts
5:58:57of cumulative probability and how we use
5:59:00binomial distribution to find
5:59:02probabilities for scenarios like at
5:59:05least two offers understanding
5:59:07cumulative probability and binomial
5:59:09distribution and probability the
5:59:10notation P looks like greater or equal
5:59:14to means the probability that the random
5:59:16variable is
5:59:18greater than or equal to two
5:59:22oh this is different from Simply
5:59:25comparing numbers
5:59:26like instead it involves calculating the
5:59:29probabilities of multiple outcomes and
5:59:32adding them together so binomial
5:59:35distribution formula the binomial
5:59:37probability formula is PX =
5:59:416 where n is the number of Trials K is
5:59:44so we learned all this I just didn't
5:59:46comprehend it P is the probability of
5:59:49the success on each trial NK is the
5:59:53binomial coefficient which counts the
5:59:56number of ways to choose K successes
5:59:59from trials cumulative probability
6:00:01cumulative probability is the
6:00:02probability of a random variable falling
6:00:05within a specified range for example
6:00:08p/ two means we want the probability of
6:00:11getting at least two successes calculate
6:00:13p over two we use
6:00:15computation 1 minus P this means we
6:00:18subtract the probability of outcomes we
6:00:20don't want less than two okay
6:00:24calculating P under two to find
6:00:27probability of X under two we calculate
6:00:29the probabilities of getting zero or one
6:00:32successes and add them together so p x
6:00:35under 2 = PX = 0 + P 1 example 25
6:00:40interviews with P = 1110 let's go
6:00:43through the calculations in the detail
6:00:44calculate PX = 0 PX = 0 =
6:00:5025.0 PX = Z calculate PX = 1 x - one = 1
6:00:59calculate PX under
6:01:04two so the probability of of getting at
6:01:06least two offers out of 25 interviews is
6:01:09728 when we compare p over two for 25
6:01:13interviews to P over two for 70 reviews
6:01:17we are comparing the cumulative
6:01:18probabilities of getting at least two
6:01:20offers in the scenario for seven
6:01:22interviews P
6:01:24five out of
6:01:28five in summary when we compare 728 to
6:01:3332
6:01:34423 sorry I literally read backwards I
6:01:38say
6:01:39three okay we are comparing the
6:01:41probabilities of getting at least two
6:01:43offers in each scenario since 728 is
6:01:46bigger than 423 you are more likely to
6:01:49get at least two offers if you go for 25
6:01:53interviews okay I'm going to just copy
6:01:55this part
6:01:58here
6:02:02again and we're going to put that here
6:02:04and then I'm going to close the chapter
6:02:05because I haven't read the book yet so I
6:02:07want to you know I just want to see
6:02:09everything before I read it it's a new
6:02:10approach to to reading for
6:02:13me or studying I
6:02:29guess chapter
6:02:345 all right all right so this looks to
6:02:36be adding things up perfectly so we got
6:02:39what we need here and now we're going to
6:02:41move on here to the next part let me say
6:02:44what's up to everybody in the chat here
6:02:45if anybody's in there I hope you're
6:02:48doing
6:03:04well
6:03:34e e
6:04:23they are training with their emotions
6:04:25and I can tell because I don't know
6:04:27where that video is coming from turn my
6:04:30mic off for a
6:04:34sec e
6:05:18I don't know how that started that's
6:05:20super weird but whatever um we uh we're
6:05:24killing it here today and I'm going to
6:05:26jump into the twitch chat right now say
6:05:27what's up to
6:05:33everybody just want to say what up what
6:05:35up what up 777 everybody in here
6:05:37appreciate
6:05:45you Z2 what up dog how are
6:05:49you you said bro question mark what up
6:05:56bro Gib bozi says hi bro for what I
6:05:59remember the the line sign that goes in
6:06:02between these the bar f means like the
6:06:06probability of a because of B in your
6:06:09case P fine is speeding means that
6:06:12probability of the event fine occurs
6:06:15because the event speeding happened I
6:06:18think that considering the sign be being
6:06:22and isn't correct if I'm not wrong nice
6:06:25dude I appreciate you uh sharing that
6:06:27with me it's
6:06:29helpful this is all pretty new
6:06:32so Henny what's up bro um I'm building a
6:06:36liquidation trading
6:06:40bot what up what up J how are
6:06:47you Z2 says do you consider yourself an
6:06:50algorithmic Trader or a Quant I feel
6:06:52like they're the same thing I mean
6:06:54they're a little different but I I don't
6:06:55know terminology and I don't really care
6:06:58I just I'm I automate my
6:07:00trading give me whatever you want what
6:07:02up Wishy how are you 777
6:07:06um just woke up P says just woke up I
6:07:09was about to check my trades here you
6:07:11are early dedicated Big Ups my my
6:07:13pleasure bro I appreciate you being here
6:07:16thank you for thank you for noticing I
6:07:19go hard glad you're here as
6:07:22well yo what up grantom how are you good
6:07:25to see you 777
6:07:43yo Hans from YouTube says hello Mev I'm
6:07:45new to programming I discovered your
6:07:47channel and was immediately hooked on
6:07:48the way you do things I do not
6:07:51understand much at the moment of coding
6:07:53and trading but I'm willing to learn
6:07:54that's all you need dude good for you
6:07:56777 sending you so much love to you bro
6:08:00that's all you need is you need the will
6:08:01to learn you know uh not watching the
6:08:04chat somebody said yeah I'm not uh do
6:08:07you have somewhere on Discord that I can
6:08:08message you yeah dude uh if you go to
6:08:10the website here at the bottom of the
6:08:12page you can send you can join Discord
6:08:14here and um also that's a good place to
6:08:18find how to uh join the
6:08:21[Music]
6:08:22uh the boot camp and everything else I
6:08:25have to
6:08:27offer it's really nothing it's just the
6:08:29boot camp and then I have the the weekly
6:08:31the weekly Inner Circle stuff so good
6:08:34morning everybody 777 it's been a great
6:08:37time so far and uh we're going to keep
6:08:39building here we're building out this
6:08:40liquidation bot I'm simply following the
6:08:43uh process that I have here and the RBI
6:08:46process is everything to me so I'm just
6:08:48going to keep opening this up and then
6:08:50this is what we're brainstorming or
6:08:53we've already brainstormed what we're
6:08:54working on so I'm building out this
6:08:56liquidation this is the thesis is
6:08:58liquidations Drive the crypto market
6:09:00price um that's just a thesis though so
6:09:04uh and that's what we're building on so
6:09:05you can see I'm grabbing all the
6:09:06liquidation data here recent licks lick
6:09:09data here and it's just continuously
6:09:11adding there so it should be running
6:09:13here let's make
6:09:21sure there it is perfect
6:09:38I need to now formulate these if they're
6:09:42long liquidated or short
6:09:45liquidated so I'm going to go ahead and
6:09:47do that let's go ahead here and
6:09:49say please please update the above code
6:09:55to also track if it's a long liquidation
6:10:01or a short
6:10:04liquidation uh I I
6:10:07classify classify them
6:10:11classify them like they are in the below
6:10:15code and then send the
6:10:19updated above code back okay so classify
6:10:24them like I do
6:10:25here and all figured out how I
6:10:28classified them while she does that okay
6:10:30so I classify the long licks
6:10:39oh I fed this up
6:10:40B fudge need copy
6:10:50this wow that was a big
6:10:55L it's okay we caught it though we
6:10:58caught it caught it quick caught it
6:11:00quick I just put it in the wrong file
6:11:02and I deleted my old one okay so I'm
6:11:04going to say the same
6:11:18too
6:11:19copy paste it in and then I need to get
6:11:22the main here good catch
6:11:26Moon perfect okay now let's output it um
6:11:30yeah so what's up everybody if you have
6:11:32any questions you can use this time as a
6:11:34free consultation if you want but if not
6:11:36that's cool
6:11:40too let's go ahead and see what's going
6:11:42on in the market because it did open and
6:11:44I haven't looked at it yet so you can
6:11:46see Tesla
6:11:49up Nidia up coinbase up so everything's
6:11:53up which is cool I want to see the gme
6:11:56because that's what really holy moly
6:11:59that down bad that went up huge and then
6:12:02down bad crazy crazy
6:12:27crazy crazy crazy time crazy time
6:13:03I'm going put this up here cuz this is
6:13:04actually super fun to watch gme the saga
6:13:08continues I
6:13:12guess so let's put it right
6:13:15there I can't believe it was up 75% this
6:13:18morning that's crazy
6:13:35okay um let's see if it went ahead and
6:13:38updated that here's the updated code to
6:13:39track whether if it a long liquidation
6:13:42or a short liquidation this is
6:13:44important
6:13:46okay there we go total licks long licks
6:13:49short licks
6:13:50perfect so in the last five minutes says
6:13:57there's easier to read this one 40,000
6:14:00in the last 5
6:14:02minutes I tend to believe that 32,000
6:14:05and okay this looks great to me so I
6:14:08feel pretty comfy here and um see if
6:14:11there's any more questions here in the
6:14:13chat yo how you been doing Louis how are
6:14:16you uh it's good to see
6:14:18you uh don big Don do we need to use a
6:14:21node for these Bots no you don't I mean
6:14:24if you're doing Solana sniping there's
6:14:28an advantage to having your own node I
6:14:30don't have my own node though so it's
6:14:33been a long time Lou says L says it's
6:14:35been a long time since I came to your
6:14:37streams yo I'm glad you're here the last
6:14:39time I was here I remember you building
6:14:41your first Bots wow dude that's awesome
6:14:43so you came years back uh it's all been
6:14:46good bro everything's been great life is
6:14:48perfect life is perfect how it is and I
6:14:52much love to you
6:14:53777 that's it that's it all that's all I
6:14:56got to say about life dog just how it's
6:14:59supposed to be so you can see now this
6:15:02splits it up between long licks and
6:15:03short licks which is great gravy that's
6:15:06really gravy to me and we're going to
6:15:08keep mobbing through this I'm going to
6:15:10drink some water but we're going to keep
6:15:33mobbing
6:16:03e
6:16:33e e
6:17:14major liquidations on the long side now
6:17:16wow look at this this is
6:17:19wild some wild wild stuff and let's see
6:17:21if our thing actually catches though so
6:17:25recent licks here recent licks.
6:17:31py and if we go look at the CSV now you
6:17:34can see
6:17:3514 yeah 1.4 mil when did this happen
6:17:38this is 31 it is 31 it happened this
6:17:41minute okay so this is
6:17:46great this is really
6:17:56awesome
6:17:58so over here let's see the
6:18:02liquidation see what it's looking like
6:18:04out there okay yeah uh so people people
6:18:07are hand trading here clearly they're
6:18:10like okay right here boom
6:18:15boom this is uh a place to long and now
6:18:18they're all getting
6:18:19liquidated so I'm glad I'm glad we're
6:18:21seeing this I'm glad we see examples
6:18:23while we're building this because
6:18:25remember this is what we're building
6:18:26here we go to our brainstorm here
6:18:28liquidations the thesis is liquidations
6:18:30Drive the crypto market price simply
6:18:32moves between licks and price is least
6:18:35real at Big liquidations so stat
6:18:40ARB we're going to work on this we're
6:18:42going to work on liquidation data source
6:18:43that is stable and that's where we we're
6:18:46we're doing right now and then we're
6:18:49going
6:18:50to like this is this this ain't stable
6:18:53is what I
6:19:01said oh one thing that I I need to do
6:19:04here here is let's go over here to the
6:19:06liquidation data again just for the
6:19:08visual liquidation data because I think
6:19:09this is super important to
6:19:21have go check out all the prints because
6:19:23processing error message yeah error
6:19:26processing message debug simulated don't
6:19:29need that connected
6:19:33URI I might remove some stuff out of
6:19:36that later I'm not going to do it now
6:19:38going to stay focused here so that's not
6:19:40stable let's go ahead and see where are
6:19:43we so we have the liquidation data that
6:19:44we need anytime we run
6:19:47this we're able to get the data that we
6:19:49want okay so let's update this let's
6:19:51just keep working on this script here
6:19:53this essentially we have all the data
6:19:55the liquidation data being stored all
6:19:57these
6:19:58liquidation all these liquidations here
6:20:00so everybody getting wrecked right now
6:20:02we're storing all that information and
6:20:05based off that information we're going
6:20:06to go ahead and build a
6:20:13bot couple things to note here maybe I
6:20:16should make like a read me
6:20:21stats I think read me like I don't it's
6:20:24okay like I can put it in the strategies
6:20:26but feel like a read me is more
6:20:28appropriate
6:20:30readme.md okay so liquidation bot okay
6:20:35just want to put some notes here so one
6:20:37note here
6:20:41is the other
6:20:44day we saw a
6:20:4815minute liquidation 15
6:20:52mil
6:20:53liquidation over like 30 minutes and
6:20:58that was the
6:21:00pivot point of the market but
6:21:05but that was only looking at big
6:21:10orders so it was likely more oh
6:21:26but okay my question is are we looking
6:21:28to go after these mofos essentially look
6:21:32at these different like players in the
6:21:34game
6:21:35they're gambling by hand and we're not
6:21:38so I'm trying to do things that they
6:21:40won't do well okay they're getting
6:21:43liquidated I will I my bots will never
6:21:45get liquidated unless like I program it
6:21:47in to get liquidated like no stops or
6:21:54anything but these guys will get
6:21:56liquidated so I know they're humans
6:21:58pretty
6:22:00much Big Lick here on
6:22:03eth so
6:22:08so so maybe maybe like
6:22:1415m
6:22:16to I would say 20 to
6:22:1930 um instead of
6:22:2315 assume that there's like a I don't
6:22:26know what's the probability be is the
6:22:29question I'm just kidding since we're
6:22:31learning probabilities here okay let's
6:22:33go ahead and uh
6:22:48turn this music back on please that's
6:22:50the first thing we should
6:22:55[Music]
6:23:01do all right
6:23:08all right
6:23:11so maybe 20 to 15 okay what we're going
6:23:13to do here is now update this code so
6:23:17essentially we want to
6:23:22grab grab
6:23:25the total for
6:23:28each total long and short total long and
6:23:33short l liquidations for each and set to
6:23:38a
6:23:51variable per
6:23:56minute so
6:23:59like
6:24:01the 5
6:24:03minute for
6:24:35so grab the five minute total long is
6:24:37short is it see if the AI can work here
6:24:41all right
6:24:42well doesn't look like it
6:24:47so I'm start using AI a little
6:24:49differently too so I can stay
6:24:51warm what is
6:24:58the if I have a
6:25:01DF how do I grab the a certain a certain
6:25:09column out of the
6:25:14DF a certain
6:25:26value of
6:25:30a for a certain
6:25:41I think it's just going to give me the
6:25:42answer I guess I should just keep going
6:25:43with the answer um I just feel like I'm
6:25:46in a a learning mode right now reading
6:25:49this book and whatnot
6:25:50so I'm just like being a little more
6:25:53conscious about hey let's make sure I
6:25:56remember this stuff
6:25:59because you know I know it's something
6:26:01like with I IO
6:26:06you use ilock to get
6:26:11the uh total long and short
6:26:17from the 15minute interval let's see
6:26:21like I could do that okay now so it's
6:26:24total DF iock of
6:26:27one decorations
6:26:36okay let's go ahead here and look at
6:26:39this so you use iock okay that's that's
6:26:42it that was the
6:26:44answer I guess I knew it I guess I knew
6:26:46it deep down it's just I needed to look
6:26:47up the uh the thing so value
6:26:55interval total liquidation big licks
6:26:57coming through here
6:27:11this is so good it's happening because
6:27:14now we're going to be able to see it
6:27:19interval so where the interval equals
6:27:22interval yeah that makes sense okay so
6:27:25let's go ahead here and say this then
6:27:28cuz this is a better so we can put
6:27:30interval
6:27:32here up here
6:27:36time
6:27:41frame
6:27:46interval going to change this one
6:27:51then all right let's see what it's
6:27:53looking like so this is the total
6:27:55liquidations here for for the 5 minute
6:27:58and that looks perfect
6:28:01okay and then this should be the total
6:28:04liquidations for the 15
6:28:08minute woy [ __ ] woy whoop it is good good
6:28:12good okay and then let's update this
6:28:15[Music]
6:28:19so same for short and
6:28:26long
6:28:29nice nice okay that's that's how we got
6:28:31to work with it you just got to like
6:28:33massage a little better like know a
6:28:35little something you know like when I
6:28:36pulled out that eyck I was able then I'm
6:28:39on Off to the Races so I had to know
6:28:41about iock though or lock or Lo or lo
6:28:44you know I got my LS on B I got my LS on
6:28:47right now so I guess I know a little bit
6:28:49about it but not that much I'm going
6:28:51keep learning B every single day I'm
6:28:53going to keep learning so we can see
6:28:55here that now I can switch the thing
6:28:59over here you can see the 15 minute is
6:29:0135 on short liquidation
6:29:04that's that's information B that's good
6:29:10info
6:29:12print print um
6:29:23print hey
6:29:28blood all right there we go so total
6:29:30liquidations
6:29:33okay for
6:30:12so these are long licks
6:30:27here these are short
6:30:30legs short should I yell at myself
6:30:35nah let's just say
6:30:38short so these are short licks okay well
6:30:40let's make these
6:30:42red make red with
6:30:50cint you got this dog
6:31:08whoa I didn't know you could do that
6:31:37all right let's go ahead and delete this
6:31:39one as well okay boom okay let's see how
6:31:42it looks now
6:31:43perfect I mean pretty pretty
6:31:46perfect I'm going to go ahead and make a
6:31:49couple changes here just couple little
6:31:51changes here
6:31:53because need to be perfect perfect okay
6:31:5615 minute now 15 minute total Els is
6:31:59that
6:32:04I can't read it
6:32:05though I mean I can but you
6:32:12know the value
6:32:17here so the value
6:32:20of make the value in
6:32:23USD with commas sorry sorry rest of the
6:32:28world and I know that's most of the
6:32:30world my
6:32:32bad why but I'm a
6:32:35Noob I like to be able to read it fast
6:32:38fast fast fast fast you'd understand
6:32:42yeah it's about the speed be but the
6:32:46thing is I really want to make it uh
6:32:49it's okay it's the number is the number
6:32:51right okay there we
6:32:54go that's easier for me to read so you
6:32:58can see the total licks versus the short
6:33:00licks
6:33:24this looks super good to
6:33:30me okay so what I'm going to do here is
6:33:33uh
6:33:35I'mma call them
6:33:59liquidations and I need to correct my
6:34:01grammar here
6:34:05you're welcome
6:34:07Mom or thank you actually really thank
6:34:11you thank you for teaching me to speak
6:34:15good that's a joke that's a joke that's
6:34:18a joke B that's a
6:34:20joke if you get that joke you know the
6:34:23language very very good
6:34:27good all
6:34:29right let's go ahead and run this B and
6:34:34I want to go ahead and actually print
6:34:36out or don't print that out
6:34:38anymore I want to go ahead and not to
6:34:41print that out anymore okay you see all
6:34:44the code here so you're caught up to
6:34:46speed and if you're not caught up to
6:34:47speed join the Boot Camp or catch up on
6:34:50Friday on Friday we
6:34:52do a review here on
6:34:56um on Zoom it's only for for 100 people
6:35:01Max Max Max the Inner Circle per per
6:35:09say let's go ahead here and open this up
6:35:13now to control no wow look at that he's
6:35:16not a noob anymore cond activate T flow
6:35:21jumping out my
6:35:23Noob copy path path path let's go ahead
6:35:27and say
6:35:29python oh my God why so many prints my I
6:35:42got no no no we good we good I was like
6:35:46am I doing it in the wrong place
6:35:49again why did it show me something
6:35:53different what are you
6:36:00printing I don't see it printing
6:36:02anything see there's something different
6:36:04going on
6:36:05now cuz this happened earlier too like
6:36:09it
6:36:10stored an earlier
6:36:20version got a
6:36:24weird wait wait wait before I go all
6:36:28like conspiracy theory here let's
6:36:31actually check the prints
6:36:35this guy I'm about to go into a
6:36:39conspiracy
6:36:40of some weird problem that I thought I
6:36:44had but I didn't even exit all the
6:36:47prints so let me go ahead and start
6:36:49there and make sure we actually have
6:36:51that problem before I spend four hours
6:36:53there we go that's looking good to me
6:36:57now recent licks I'm going call this
6:36:59recent licks Loop
6:37:04Loop
6:37:06okay and then I want to go ahead and
6:37:09just grab some of my code because I
6:37:11don't remember
6:37:12anything let's see if I can do it
6:37:15actually let's say from
6:37:19um to CSV save the data to a CSV
6:37:36I feel like we're just going to make
6:37:37this all the
6:37:38bot death bot
6:37:49okay okay oh okay and then uh
6:37:54schedule to run
6:37:58every 15 minutes you right 30 seconds
6:38:12so I'm G say bot first and then I'm
6:38:14gonna say schedule every 30 seconds do
6:38:17bot wild true
6:38:21try oh I can do this
6:38:25dude time.
6:38:29sleep not 78 my guy five import
6:38:35time okay try and accept accept
6:38:41what print um
6:38:45er trying again in
6:38:4920 yo son hey back it up back it up back
6:38:53it
6:38:54up okay time okay there we go now we're
6:38:59going my
6:39:01guy every single day every single second
6:39:03okay let's go ahead and run it from over
6:39:05here now I think this is going to be
6:39:07some useful things to have copy
6:39:12path
6:39:15python okay what's wrong here though
6:39:18buddy oal interal
6:39:20DF inal
6:39:24DF what happened here
6:39:41I think all this needs
6:39:47to not all of it just
6:39:51this hi I don't know to be honest let's
6:39:54go
6:39:58check for label yeah
6:40:06totals here liquidation table this is
6:40:09part of it okay but this needs to be
6:40:12moved over
6:40:13here okay it's moved over now I think
6:40:16that should fix the problem but we'll
6:40:17see for label okay that looks good yeah
6:40:20total is DF oh that looks so nice so so
6:40:23nice I had to move it over because I had
6:40:24to put in a bot because the bot had to
6:40:26go ahead and be a bot you know what I'm
6:40:28saying do you know what I'm saying it
6:40:31needs to go ahead and actually be a bot
6:40:33that I can run over and over and over
6:40:35again because you're about to see what
6:40:36I'm about to do with
6:40:39it new screen who
6:40:44this I don't need the bottom ones right
6:40:49here let's get that one out of
6:40:57here there we go
6:41:08it's too
6:41:10long sorry if you don't know what
6:41:11liquidations are then it's your bad not
6:41:15mine n it's all good dog it's okay if
6:41:18you don't know but we'll figure it out
6:41:20together just going to put it right here
6:41:23because these there's not many of them
6:41:24you
6:41:31know looks like there's a lot of
6:41:32liquidations coming through here which
6:41:34is neat to see live holy
6:41:45smokes I mean this is a perfect time
6:41:48though this is a perfect
6:41:51time you can see the last time last big
6:41:54liquidations were down here 15 million
6:41:57so we've been working on this this
6:41:58entire time I think it I I don't know I
6:42:01don't know but like I think this is a
6:42:03level so if it doesn't hit that level
6:42:06maybe it's a new it changes to a new
6:42:08level but we'll see what are the
6:42:1015-minute liquidation is looking
6:42:12like cuz when this this is so great this
6:42:15is time life is just so perfect the
6:42:18perfect this is such good timing of this
6:42:20because we're building it and the
6:42:22threshold that we're thinking of here is
6:42:2620m instead of 15m so you see we got a
6:42:29ways to go boy we got a ways to go
6:42:35for it to be anything like this was so
6:42:39where are these liquidations hidden
6:42:42that's the
6:42:45question so what I like so far is now
6:42:50we're looking at the data down here and
6:42:52what I really like about this just just
6:42:54to since we have it here is that I feel
6:42:57like a hand Trader would be like oh yeah
6:43:00look let's buy the dip right here but we
6:43:02can
6:43:06see D this could be bigger
6:43:10huh we can see in reality well the last
6:43:15time there was a pivot in the market it
6:43:18was 15 million of licks
6:43:22so yeah while this is a dip um I don't
6:43:26know or or was 15 million too rare like
6:43:30I don't know I don't know these answers
6:43:32but um that's what I'm building for so
6:43:34I'm exploring I'm exploring we've been
6:43:36watching this data for a few months now
6:43:39maybe I don't know I don't know time is
6:43:42irrelevant but I'mma keep showing up if
6:43:44you keep showing up I'mma keep showing
6:43:46up you keep showing up I'mma keep
6:43:48showing up all right you keep showing up
6:43:51I'mma keep showing up every single day
6:43:52777 so much love to you
6:44:03all right we'll keep the we'll keep an
6:44:04eye on these liquidations
6:44:09here um I could probably move this down
6:44:12because yeah there we
6:44:17go these are pretty important to
6:44:20me pretty important probably one of the
6:44:23most important
6:44:25things oh you can't see that one
6:44:29huh move
6:44:36there we go that looks great to me I'mma
6:44:39put these a little
6:44:42bigger that's it so I like this
6:44:46already I think more people got to get
6:44:48licked here before this resets but again
6:44:51that's just like this is just me talking
6:44:53so it means zero z00 zero like you know
6:44:59I'm not a good hand Trader I have
6:45:01emotions and
6:45:04even looking at this chart right now
6:45:05even the data we're looking
6:45:11at like it's hard to tell what's going
6:45:15to happen
6:45:23here it's interesting though because I
6:45:25can see both sides I can see it dumping
6:45:28until it gets closer to the 15 million
6:45:31liquidations
6:45:33you can see you can make a case for both
6:45:35sides and that's why trading doesn't
6:45:37work because you're just going to make a
6:45:38case for the side of your bias of that
6:45:41day like if you're feeling super good
6:45:44like okay you're probably going to buy
6:45:45this dip it might work out there a lot
6:45:49of volume right
6:45:56here and that's another thing here is
6:45:58like okay while this was 15 million
6:46:01liquidations what's going on with the
6:46:02volume
6:46:07questions because the volume actually is
6:46:10as high as this liquidation point so
6:46:16while Ah that's interesting I actually
6:46:18like
6:46:20that like that new variable here because
6:46:24I know it's hard to see this because
6:46:25it's just like so light gray but these
6:46:30volume bars are the same
6:46:40amount these liquidations are much
6:46:43different it's a 2 million in the last
6:46:4615
6:46:49minutes and we've been tracking it for
6:46:51the last 15 I believe yeah let's see
6:46:54let's make
6:46:57sure yeah yeah we've been here
6:46:59since 48 yeah yeah so these numbers are
6:47:04correct the part it doesn't account for
6:47:07is like other exchanges so this is just
6:47:09binance right
6:47:14so it's something to note as
6:47:18well how does how does how
6:47:23does here I put this on here because
6:47:29man I guess I could just put it in here
6:47:31like this for
6:48:27I'm going to put it here it's going to
6:48:28be better
6:48:35how does
6:48:37um volume come into
6:48:48play oh yeah let's make this a
6:49:00thing too high volume
6:49:05bars
6:49:07with huge difference in lck
6:49:13amounts
6:49:17so let's put that in here
6:49:55okay so that's the lick amount maybe a
6:49:57bit higher
6:50:11while
6:50:15the
6:50:17previous Lake
6:50:21was 15 M
6:50:24worth huge
6:50:28discrepancy huge
6:50:30diff but
6:50:34similar W
6:50:38you how can we use this
6:50:44info
6:50:46okay they got some big players out today
6:50:49so 15
6:51:00minutes you can see that here so
6:51:03so I obviously need to open this up a
6:51:06bit so let's open it up a bit
6:51:09first time frame
6:51:38I mean can we just print this DF B
6:51:41because that's going to be the nicest
6:51:42let's just do that duh I mean we'll see
6:51:46we'll see we'll see let's print the DF
6:51:50first
6:51:52um print totals
6:51:56DF
6:52:00okay nice that's so beautiful
6:52:07boy whing whing Wilding Wilding okay
6:52:10let's go ahead here
6:52:12[Music]
6:52:23and let's just put time frames
6:52:28here equal uh yeah
6:52:33how many which ones do we have here uh
6:52:35recent licks here we got the uh all
6:52:39these ones two hour 4 Hour 90
6:52:42minutes so
6:52:4551530
6:52:4851530
6:52:50192 192 and four hours okay it knows I
6:52:55don't know I don't know it knows
6:53:08let's just move this
6:53:10over let's just move it on over and now
6:53:14time frame is set to that
6:53:19dude sounds good to
6:53:22me let's go ahead and get rid of
6:53:25these let's get rid of this one too
6:53:27matter of fact all right peace rip
6:53:33there we go po hand
6:53:45nice this needs his own
6:53:48roll okay
6:53:55so I think I dropped the i in but where
6:53:58are my my headphones at okay they're
6:54:00right here sorry they're dying
6:54:15all right SI okay oh we see some long or
6:54:18short liquidations now
6:54:24so 2our licks
6:54:50first easy
6:54:52bucket first
6:54:54easy
6:54:56second easy
6:54:59bunny I guess that doesn't matter really
6:55:06where am I going to put it is the
6:55:09question oh we got room right
6:55:16here welcome to the fan fam
6:55:32what am I covering oh that's
6:55:34fine we look at it a different way
6:55:38now it's good to have you here fam
6:56:15all right so this is great because now
6:56:17we got the liquidations on the screen in
6:56:20a much easier way I can see the long
6:56:23licks short licks this is great
6:56:27dude so that's nice for me I like it so
6:56:32we making moves every single day dude
6:56:34every single day no matter what I don't
6:56:38care I don't care how long it takes all
6:56:42I care about is continuing until we get
6:56:45what we
6:56:46need what do we need be I got big goals
6:56:49got big goals in this game and I'm going
6:56:51to viciously attack it until I get there
6:56:54I'll do a weekly review on Fridays from
6:56:57here on out only for the 100 closest the
6:57:00100 people I hand select
6:57:04I'm not even going to tell you how to
6:57:05sign up for
6:57:07it you can join the boot camp there's a
6:57:10link below in the description if you
6:57:12want to learn how to automate your
6:57:13trading step by step I hold your hand
6:57:18bro short concise
6:57:22videos and for a special 100
6:57:28people I'll do Friday reviews by popular
6:57:33demand Friday reviews are here Fridays
6:57:38at noon Fridays at noon
6:57:40Eastern so this week is going to be the
6:57:43first one and we're going to go over all
6:57:44of this code everything we've seen today
6:57:46all liquidation code everything we
6:57:49continue to build the rest of the day
6:57:51everything dog everything I do you get
6:57:54you get to see it
6:57:55all and now I'm going to do these 30
6:57:58minute Zoom calls on Fridays 30 minutes
6:58:02minutes you literally get to take my
6:58:04time and turn it into 30
6:58:07minutes like I said I'm not even going
6:58:09to tell you how to apply for that if you
6:58:12can't figure that out my guy
6:58:17then I'm sorry
6:58:20B so much love to you
6:58:23777 but I only can surround myself with
6:58:27with the best of the best be people that
6:58:30are most committed
6:58:42all right so I really like this here can
6:58:45you see that okay you can probably see
6:58:47it
6:58:50fine I'll try not to cover it
6:59:01up
6:59:31e for
7:00:11I'm to scroll through these real quick
7:00:13see if there's any newbies these are the
7:00:15top volume tokens on Solana so I just
7:00:18like to look through
7:00:19him this guy's kind of
7:00:27funny still catching my eye it's a ugly
7:00:42do I see you I see you kitty but I'm not
7:00:47going to pick you this time
7:01:10I like the kitten actually I just don't
7:01:11like the
7:01:15name I don't even like cats no I do I do
7:01:18I do just allergic I want to check these
7:01:21out actually see what's Gucci with
7:01:27them Andy
7:01:48Walter holy smokes look at that leaning
7:01:53tower of
7:01:55pizza that's leaning
7:01:59be let's check out this last one here oh
7:02:02I think this is
7:02:04Mishi or something or real fast okay I
7:02:08was
7:02:10wrong all three of those were like 11
7:02:12mil Mark caps which is pretty
7:02:14small I'm just going to keep it there
7:02:20maybe look into it later I want to go
7:02:23ahead here and get
7:02:27this to a place
7:02:32to the next stop
7:02:34really so let's just go back to our note
7:02:36sheet because we outsourced this
7:02:39already this thought process liquidation
7:02:42data that is stable this ain't stable so
7:02:46I guess we're kind of checking the
7:02:47stability of this all
7:02:51day which is good and so far it's
7:02:54looking good that's what I should do
7:02:56I'mma jump on I'mma break it
7:03:13yo we got an answer here from DNS and
7:03:16this is dope I appreciate you dude so I
7:03:19think I was talking about the high
7:03:21volume and the liquidations here and how
7:03:25they kind of match up like the volumes
7:03:28are super high the volumes are matching
7:03:30up liquidations don't match up there's 2
7:03:32million licks right
7:03:33here so let's say that let's put that
7:03:36there yeah
7:03:42yeah okay two million in
7:03:48licks let's just say that it's around
7:03:50there two million licks right there so
7:03:55it's totally different this is a 15
7:03:56million licks I don't know when this was
7:03:58maybe yeah a few days ago few days ago
7:04:00on 31st
7:04:04we were here of course cuz we always
7:04:06here
7:04:07be but the number of licks are much
7:04:10different so I was like oh man so what's
7:04:12the what's the volume have to do with it
7:04:14then again the volume spiked up here as
7:04:17well these are just questions these are
7:04:19variables to equations that you can
7:04:23create so whatever ideas you have dude
7:04:27please do share them in the chat and DNS
7:04:29said re your question about High
7:04:31volatility and
7:04:34liquidations I suggest looking at oi
7:04:40there it's a good idea
7:04:42dude it's a really good
7:04:48idea thank you so much for your kind
7:04:51thoughts
7:04:53bro that is so so helpful cuz oi open
7:04:58interest we just show
7:05:02to
7:05:05do add oi
7:05:08into the
7:05:10equation so we can see
7:05:15when
7:05:20uh
7:05:22leverage has been
7:05:24wiped or
7:05:29affected affected affected I don't
7:05:35know and then DNS from YouTube says if
7:05:39the volume is up and licks
7:05:43increase the answer is stops were
7:05:47triggered squeezing price down and the
7:05:50trend Traders took the direction
7:05:53increasing volume does not mean
7:05:56increased longs
7:06:02these first licks
7:06:04here thanks for looking into this
7:06:07bro this May 31st at
7:06:121430 May 31st at
7:06:151430 all the way to May 31st at
7:06:201615 that's that was the Turning bar but
7:06:23I think the liquidations were started
7:06:25here um May 1430 all the way to 1600
7:06:37be I don't know I wasn't looking at the
7:06:39funny rates at that time but we do have
7:06:42our funny rate bot here or not bot but
7:06:44scanner maybe add funny rate to this as
7:06:49well this is really good though I really
7:06:52appreciate it um we have access to the
7:06:55funny rates and I don't know if we built
7:06:58this yet but I'm pretty sure binance has
7:07:00open interest which which is
7:07:02dope I'm so I'm I'm not sure what the
7:07:05funding
7:07:07was at that
7:07:15moment but interested in this statement
7:07:19you said I'm going to bring it over here
7:07:22because it's on this little chat
7:07:24thing so this is from DNS
7:07:29here and I just want to write it down
7:07:33and see what he was talking about if the
7:07:34volume is up and licks increase the
7:07:37answer is stops were
7:07:39triggered squeezing price
7:07:45down okay part one the volume is up and
7:07:50licks increase the
7:07:53answer stops for triggered squeezing
7:07:55price down okay that makes sense yes
7:08:02and the trend Traders took the
7:08:13direction and the trend ters took the
7:08:16direction increasing volume does not
7:08:21mean okay I also agree with this cool I
7:08:25agree with
7:08:27both um
7:08:33I guess I don't I don't know my question
7:08:35that's the hard part it I think it was a
7:08:37while
7:08:40ago yo Doug what up
7:08:44B how are you
7:08:47man East Coast time killing you I know
7:08:50I'm sorry man
7:08:53sorry ZF what's up bro yo we got another
7:08:57somebody else increasing volume does not
7:08:59mean increasing longs oh lightning
7:09:02lightning from from Twitter y I
7:09:04appreciate you coming up in here and uh
7:09:07posting on Twitter and
7:09:09YouTube 777 Doug so much love to you bro
7:09:13good
7:09:14morning um oh ZF going crazy up in here
7:09:38yo I appreciate you ZF it's good to see
7:09:40you man you can get all the video the
7:09:42all the code and stuff is they're in the
7:09:45videos for sure for sure so you can see
7:09:48here if you go to
7:09:51YouTube um if you need any of this is
7:09:53all here so I'm just going to
7:09:55keep these videos
7:09:58here and I'mma keep coming live and
7:10:00sharing everything
7:10:09there yo Christopher said he's been
7:10:12watching these videos for a while and
7:10:13it's hard to find people who who put out
7:10:15valuable stuff so thank you thank you
7:10:18bro thank you my
7:10:19[Music]
7:10:21pleasure Jane what's up
7:10:23[Music]
7:10:29777 Louis good to have you you here bro
7:11:03all right so yeah I'mma keep putting
7:11:04stuff here on the the tube and I'mma
7:11:06keep going live um every day so I hope
7:11:11you're here
7:11:13dude I hope you're
7:11:28here I'm really happy we got this done
7:11:31this is such an easy way to
7:11:35glance but to be honest I want it
7:11:38backwards go in reverse
7:11:41dog recent lick Loop so go in reverse
7:11:45though uh for time in time
7:11:48frame do
7:11:50the no no
7:11:58no Loop through in
7:12:02reverso
7:12:05please dope boom there we go that's
7:12:08exactly what we want do all right let's
7:12:12go ahead here why did I do it that way
7:12:13because I want to see the freshest stuff
7:12:15first that's
7:12:19it so 12.5 in 4 hours let's see this
7:12:23let's see if this is semi true
7:12:28um liquid
7:12:31ation
7:12:33data how's it how are we going to see if
7:12:35it's true I'm just going to look at this
7:12:37tool
7:12:38here and exchanges I'm just going to say
7:12:41binance no that's not going to do it
7:12:44that is not going to do it dude 4our 1
7:12:47hour
7:12:49exchanges no oh
7:12:537.22 in the 1
7:12:57hour 6.8 nice
7:13:02see 4 hour 40.3 and ours
7:13:07is 12.5 all right it's close enough
7:13:12close enough for
7:13:13me I assume it's just different time
7:13:16periods you know like I got the last
7:13:18four hours literally and maybe their
7:13:21four hours is different I don't
7:13:25know but that's looking pretty good to
7:13:28me and you can see binance is the
7:13:33biggest but okx is pretty
7:13:38big
7:13:43so yeah I think so bro I think
7:13:50so yep we're thinking the same thing
7:13:53right
7:13:56now addx okay
7:14:02let's do
7:14:03it okay X
7:14:06documentation um what is this
7:14:15called documentation
7:14:25liquidations next customer document come
7:14:29on MO
7:14:32overview
7:14:34API
7:14:36trading trading
7:14:40account public
7:14:43data rest websocket yes okay funding
7:14:47rate that's nice okay liquidation orders
7:14:51Channel
7:15:03I'm make a new
7:15:07file
7:15:09combined
7:15:11lick loop.
7:15:15py okay update this
7:15:18code not in our probability stuff
7:15:22but update the above code to add INX
7:15:31data
7:15:322
7:15:34um right now it is just binance and we
7:15:39want it to be
7:15:48both so you will need to
7:15:54add no you don't need to add
7:15:59anything spit out and
7:16:02save data from both
7:16:06sides
7:16:08sites
7:16:11websockets below is the
7:16:15documentation for the
7:16:19okx liquidation
7:16:24stream send
7:16:26back full code please please
7:16:31I love
7:16:42you yeah let's just give it all types of
7:16:44stuff you
7:16:45know chat CPT not at one
7:16:49though okay while it does that I'm going
7:16:51to go on to chapter five here and see
7:16:54what the table of content is looking
7:16:56like again I'm going back and forth here
7:16:58because the game don't stop it's just
7:17:01you that be stopping
7:17:03B all right
7:17:07so before I read the
7:17:11chapter please no uh
7:17:15please teach me about these things I'll
7:17:19just do it before I actually read it
7:17:21okay the beta
7:17:29distribution distinguish
7:17:33probability
7:17:35statistics and
7:17:38inference collecting
7:17:43data
7:17:46calculating of the
7:17:49probability of
7:17:51probabilities oh snap now we're getting
7:17:55stuff beta beta distribution
7:18:06probability density
7:18:22function outline
7:18:24a strange scenario
7:18:33problem that helps
7:18:36illustrate the below
7:18:41okay
7:18:43density function okay and
7:18:51um quantifying
7:18:55quantifying
7:18:56continuous
7:18:58distributions with in
7:19:03integration reverse
7:19:07engineering the Goa game a Goa
7:19:14game all right let's see what you got
7:19:16shorty let's see if you can really teach
7:19:18me this
7:19:20stuff and I'll be back our systems say
7:19:24unusual content yeah it is unusual be I
7:19:27go harder than most I'm sorry I'm sorry
7:19:30dog it is what it is our system might
7:19:34catch unusual con content
7:19:38here unusual
7:19:40everything okay here we go perfect
7:19:43perfect perfect perfect now we're both
7:19:46outputting at the same
7:19:47time let's go ahead and read through
7:19:50this sure let's create a fun scenario to
7:19:52help illustrate these Concepts imagine
7:19:54we are designing a magical game where
7:19:56Wizards cast spells and we want to
7:19:59understand the probabilities of various
7:20:00outcomes this will help us learn about
7:20:03the beta distribution probability
7:20:05statistics and inference scenario the
7:20:09Wizards tourn tournament in the Wizards
7:20:12tournament Wizards cast spells and each
7:20:14spell can be successful or unsuccessful
7:20:17we want to study the probabilities and
7:20:19distributions of spell success rates to
7:20:21improve our understanding and design of
7:20:23the game that's interesting Wizards cool
7:20:27let's go ahead and see if she's outputed
7:20:29everything yet not quite so maybe we'll
7:20:31go ahead and talk about the beta
7:20:33distribution the beta distribution is a
7:20:36way to describe the probabilities of
7:20:38probabilities it's useful when we have a
7:20:40bunch of data about how often something
7:20:43happens like how how often wizard spells
7:20:47are successful the beta distribution has
7:20:50two parameters it has this little funky
7:20:52thing and this little funky B thing
7:20:55which shape the distribution imagine
7:20:58imagine we observe the success rate of
7:21:01spells cast by different Wizards you can
7:21:04use the beta distribution to model the
7:21:07probability of a wizard spell being
7:21:09successful based on the observed success
7:21:12and failures example we observe 10
7:21:15successful spells and five Su
7:21:18unsuccessful spells so this is the
7:21:20number of successes + 1 10 + 1 equal 11
7:21:24the B thing number of failures + 1 = 5 +
7:21:281 = 6 the beta distribution beta 116
7:21:32models the probability of spell success
7:21:35nice let's go back over here and see if
7:21:37this code is done and then let's go
7:21:39ahead and run it dude let's see if it
7:21:41does it correctly I'm worried about a
7:21:43couple things and those things are quite
7:21:46simple number one can we get connected
7:21:48to okx I don't know so let's just run it
7:21:51and see what type of Errors we run into
7:21:53okay that's a little bit of an error we
7:21:56have to go ahead and throw it back into
7:21:59GG here because
7:22:03that's the only way to do it dude all
7:22:05right so let's go ahead and while she's
7:22:08working for us we're learning more
7:22:10distinguishing probability statistics
7:22:13and inference probability the study of
7:22:16How likely events are to happen for
7:22:19example the chance a wizard spell will
7:22:22be successful statistics the practice of
7:22:25collecting and analyzing data for
7:22:27example observing and recording the
7:22:29outcomes of spell
7:22:31inference making conclusions about the
7:22:34probability of future events based on
7:22:37past data for example predicting the
7:22:40success rate of spells in future tourn
7:22:43tournaments based on past success
7:22:48rates she still going collecting
7:22:52data distinguishing probability
7:22:55collecting data collecting data involves
7:22:57observing and recording the outcomes of
7:23:00wizard spells we keep track of each
7:23:03Spell's success or failure to analyze
7:23:06and make predictions example wizard a
7:23:09casts 20 spells 15 successes and five
7:23:12failures wizard B cast 30 spells 18
7:23:16successes and 12
7:23:18failures
7:23:20failures let's keep it going calculating
7:23:22the probabilities of probabilities using
7:23:25the beta distribution we can calculate
7:23:27the probability distribution of success
7:23:30rate of spells this helps us understand
7:23:32not just the average success rate but
7:23:34how confident we are about that rate
7:23:37example using the data from Wizard a a
7:23:41the little loop-de-loop plus 15 15 equal
7:23:4515 + 1 = 16 so the b equal 5 + 1 so
7:23:51wizard a the dist the beta distribution
7:23:54b166 tells us the likely range of
7:23:58success rates for Wizard a spells beta
7:24:04distribution let's go ahead and see if
7:24:06we can get this code going
7:24:19here I get this
7:24:26area I'm just going to keep doing that
7:24:28and let let her figure out because I got
7:24:30a lot to learn beta distribution the
7:24:32beta distribution is defined for
7:24:34probabilities between zero and one it
7:24:37shows the likelihood of different
7:24:39probabilities of success based on
7:24:41observed data example plotting beta 166
7:24:45gives us a curve showing the most likely
7:24:48success rates for Wizard a spells
7:24:51probability density function the PDF is
7:24:54a function that describes the likelihood
7:24:57of different outcomes for the beta
7:24:59distribution the PDF shows How likely
7:25:01different probabilities of success are
7:25:04example for beta 166 the PDF might Peak
7:25:08around 7 indicating the 70% success is
7:25:11most likely but it also shows the range
7:25:15of other possible success rates
7:25:17quantifying continuous distributions
7:25:19with integration integration helps us
7:25:22find the area under the PDF curve which
7:25:26represents the probability of certain
7:25:28outcomes for continuous distrib tions
7:25:30like beta distribution integration
7:25:33gration helps us calculate the
7:25:35likelihood of success rates failing or
7:25:38falling within a specific range example
7:25:41if we want to find the probability of
7:25:43wizard A's success rate is between 60
7:25:46and 80 we integrate the PDF of beta 166
7:25:50from 6 to8 reverse engineering a gotcha
7:25:55game gacha games are like magical slot
7:25:57machines where players pull to get
7:26:00random rewards we can use probability
7:26:03and the beta distribution to understand
7:26:05and design these games example suppose
7:26:08we want to design a gacha where players
7:26:11have a 5% chance of getting a rare item
7:26:15we can collect data on the players polls
7:26:18model the probabilities with a beta
7:26:20distribution and use this information
7:26:23tweak the game's probabilities for
7:26:25better balance and player satisfaction
7:26:28summary in the Wizard tournament
7:26:31scenario we use the beta distribution to
7:26:33model spell success rates distinguish
7:26:36between probability statistics and
7:26:40inference collected and analyzed data
7:26:43calculated probabilities of
7:26:45probabilities understood the PDF and use
7:26:48integration for continuous distributions
7:26:51we also saw how these Concepts apply to
7:26:54design a gachan that was super helpful
7:26:57dude I appreciate you so so much let go
7:27:00the books here
7:27:06and um beta distribution maybe we call
7:27:10this
7:27:12yeah beta
7:27:15[Music]
7:27:19distri all right sick let's go ahead and
7:27:23go to uh chapter six
7:27:25here so I'm just getting warmed up on
7:27:27this book and I'm going go read it so
7:27:30you know I'm not affiliated with any way
7:27:32in any way I'm just reading a book
7:27:35reading a book reading a book improve my
7:27:38probability game and um you know just
7:27:41keep doing things others aren't going to
7:27:42do others don't like to read I don't
7:27:44like to read B I don't like to read it
7:27:47all but I like to know I like to know
7:27:50things and everything's trapped in these
7:27:52books be everything's trapped in these
7:27:54books everything good in this world is
7:27:56in the books I promise actually I don't
7:27:58promise I don't promise at all
7:28:01I just think there's a lot of good ideas
7:28:03that are not in videos yet essentially
7:28:09essentially
7:28:11be okay so sick that didn't work
7:28:14dude combined lcks what am I doing
7:28:18that's my bad
7:28:32what happened
7:28:38here it's still doing that
7:28:50thing maybe I gave it the wrong code
7:29:26may have given you the wrong
7:29:28code I I am truly
7:29:33sorry okay so maybe I gave him gave her
7:29:36the wrong code I don't
7:29:45know let's make sure that it's all
7:29:47looking good here before I jump back to
7:29:49the next chapter
7:29:58here e
7:30:38exercise how do you spell this
7:30:42word
7:30:45exercises you
7:30:54create so okay this is looking better I
7:30:58feel like it made a little change of
7:30:59that that's why it like started to work
7:31:01on the other code but maybe that was me
7:31:04I don't know I don't think so
7:31:07but I don't know it probably was me it
7:31:10usually is it usually is combined
7:31:14lck okay here we
7:31:16go connected to
7:31:19both
7:31:23public interesting they're different but
7:31:26whatever I see a lick come through b
7:31:29come on somebody get
7:31:31wrecked both exchanges nobody getting
7:31:33wrecked yeah
7:31:41huh I'm not believing this okay somebody
7:31:45got hit on bance so but it didn't
7:31:51show
7:31:58huh e
7:32:42let's just keep them
7:32:49separate oh there it
7:32:53is but is that okay X as well I don't
7:32:57see any
7:33:07okay X
7:33:12liquidations N I feel like now I'm
7:33:14giving up too early yeah
7:33:16yeah I don't know what's going on here
7:33:18Doby
7:33:34see what the a
7:33:58is e
7:34:33I don't know what's going on here be
7:34:41hon to be honest I don't know what's
7:34:44going on here but we'll figure it
7:34:49out all right Lake
7:34:52Loop recent L loot
7:35:19h
7:35:32hey it does show okx here
7:35:43though I don't want to combine them
7:35:46because because the
7:35:52headers headers are different and it's
7:35:57going to make things
7:36:00confusing I can just uh join them with
7:36:06pandas
7:36:08later please send me back a script that
7:36:14I can
7:36:15just use
7:36:21independent in order to run the
7:36:26okx L to
7:36:31okay so I'mma do that
7:36:37because I just think it's going to be
7:36:39easier to manage you know I'm going
7:36:43delete those okay where's the combined
7:36:46no I don't want combined no more I want
7:36:49to have uh okay X
7:36:53lick licky
7:36:56Loop licky Loop Wait no that's not what
7:37:01I want actually the main this is just
7:37:04going to be okx
7:37:09licks because I have to do it I have to
7:37:12do it dude because if it's going to give
7:37:14it if it's going to allow me to do it
7:37:15why would I not B&B
7:37:21licks do you know what I'm saying like
7:37:24if I'm looking at these liquidations
7:37:26over here and it's showing that binance
7:37:29obviously is moving the market that's
7:37:31that's the one but then number two is
7:37:33kind of close 10 million 14 million so
7:37:36if I get those two then you know F buy
7:37:40it for
7:37:42now and then I can also get open
7:37:45interest
7:37:51see pretty sure we're already tracking
7:37:53that somewhere but this is good to make
7:37:56it more robust because we made strides
7:37:58in robustness to
7:38:01that this hasn't died once and it
7:38:03usually dies once I'm going be watching
7:38:06it all night don't
7:38:07worry okay let's go ahead and see what
7:38:09GG
7:38:16say go ahead here and paste it on over
7:38:19here to
7:38:21bmbx this is
7:38:23okx okay
7:38:26X let's go ahead and run it here see if
7:38:29we can get some coming through connected
7:38:32okay
7:38:34nice I didn't see any get sent over here
7:38:37last time but it should be different now
7:38:44because I don't know why because
7:38:55but okay that's my file there perfect
7:38:59and then let's go ahead here and get our
7:39:01make sure our data is still coming in
7:39:03there
7:39:04okay where is it yes it should be coming
7:39:07in here fine and now we just need to go
7:39:10back to our recent loop as well because
7:39:12remember this thing broke I don't know
7:39:14how to fix it though so I'm just going
7:39:16to run it
7:39:18again oh it's because the new licks here
7:39:22lick data here recent data maybe no I
7:39:25think it's in the lick data here I need
7:39:27to delete some of this data because it
7:39:29start getting funky with
7:39:32it
7:39:34remember sorry put okx up in here so
7:39:38let's go ahead and just delete it peace
7:39:41now this should work okay come on
7:39:48dog maybe the the headers changed or
7:39:51something
7:39:55no failed to save that's why overwrite
7:40:00override it I don't want it anymore
7:40:03there we
7:40:05go he figured out how to code somehow he
7:40:08did it that boy is nice that boy is nice
7:40:13somehow someway he figured out how to
7:40:15code just enough to use this AI that's
7:40:19all we need my guy it's all we need just
7:40:23enough dude just enough just enough to
7:40:25get your get your AI Demand on because I
7:40:29just sit here and I ask it nicely so so
7:40:32nicely okay you can see it's all coming
7:40:34through now Source okay that's nice
7:40:38that's so so nice
7:40:41here I don't know what to do with it
7:41:05we're not touching this are we because
7:41:06now you see this is breaking
7:41:08now so recent data lick data a lot of
7:41:11things going on here lot of things look
7:41:14at
7:41:16this so that's my bad maybe Alice front
7:41:21I think it's because I need to end it
7:41:23with a comma compare overwrite I don't
7:41:27know though
7:41:38dang where's this why is this get
7:41:40written here who is this from where's it
7:41:42coming
7:41:46from oh it's coming from over there yeah
7:41:54yeah oh I know how to fix this yeah yeah
7:41:57okay
7:41:59you just got to be down here
7:42:02right I saved
7:42:04it let's watch it
7:42:09through okay it should add new licks to
7:42:13the line next line it was adding it to
7:42:15the regular
7:42:17line there we go gotcha boom we're Gucci
7:42:21now so let's just close the case there
7:42:23let's close the case it's done get them
7:42:25out of here
7:42:43B&B
7:42:45LS recent lick
7:42:54Loop okay we know this works
7:43:00but now we want to do something with it
7:43:02I want to do the same
7:43:04thing
7:43:14here big licks coming through or about
7:43:18to come seems like it probably to the
7:43:21short
7:43:23side yep look at that so today it's more
7:43:28about the volume but that's the thing is
7:43:30like or is it is it is it done is that a
7:43:33reversal is it you know what there's so
7:43:35many questions so many
7:43:37questions but it's like 2
7:43:39mil 15 mil but now I'm seeing the
7:43:43volume's the same which one's more
7:43:45important well what's the time frame
7:43:48because this little move right
7:43:51here I don't know you could get it
7:43:54that's a trade right there for sure but
7:43:56it's like intraday or
7:43:59you know I don't know I don't know these
7:44:02things just he just hear testing those
7:44:06things
7:44:07be so I want to go here and keep this
7:44:10moving keep it moving I want to figure
7:44:13out how to combine these
7:44:45above is my
7:44:49df4 um Finance
7:44:54lick data.csv there
7:44:59is no
7:45:01header below is my
7:45:06lick data
7:45:08do okay x.
7:45:12CSV and you can see it does have a
7:45:17header
7:45:30I need you to combine
7:45:35them before you do the rest of the loop
7:45:42shown
7:45:43below so
7:45:47essentially we will
7:45:53be tracking
7:45:55the different time ENT
7:45:59intervals of
7:46:04liquidations and
7:46:06printing out the total of
7:46:10both
7:46:14exchanges binance and
7:46:17okx combined
7:46:21combined
7:46:23okay see if we can do that
7:46:32how do we know if it's going to be able
7:46:33to do it right well I think the first
7:46:35test how many input files does it have
7:46:36it should have two input files
7:46:39now just test our little
7:46:41guy he good he good that boy nice that
7:46:45boy nice
7:47:07okay so let's look through this see if
7:47:09it makes sense okay X okay perfect
7:47:12column names for binance are different
7:47:14than column names of that
7:47:32so it's converting the time stamps here
7:47:35standardized
7:47:41colums okay so s symbol is in family
7:47:46side
7:47:48side concat concatenate
7:47:53the
7:47:56data I mean to be real real I want to
7:47:59make sure these these liquidations line
7:48:01up first and yeah yeah yeah for sure I
7:48:04want to make sure that the colors line
7:48:05up because there's been a bunch of
7:48:06liquidations here on bance my bad my bad
7:48:11I should run this on a different file
7:48:13copy
7:48:15path Let's uh let's get it here
7:48:29cond activate T flow
7:48:35python okay XS I want to make sure these
7:48:38licks are looking the same
7:48:40color so let's keep an eye on that
7:48:43because if they're not then I don't want
7:48:44to move on until we flip them flip
7:48:50it all right this is the same thing as
7:48:52this one
7:48:55so it's the same thing as this one
7:49:00so I'm just going to put that here for
7:49:01now and these need to match up the next
7:49:03liquidations that come
7:49:05through we have the code here now uh
7:49:09explanation column lines aligned they
7:49:11read in the data for both it
7:49:13standardizes the stuff liquidation
7:49:15calculations let's go check that
7:49:18out long liquidations short liquidations
7:49:21that's sum for label in start time
7:49:37all right I'm just going to wait for
7:49:37some liquidations come through before I
7:49:40Implement these changes let's go ahead
7:49:41and try a couple of our uh problems that
7:49:44we have so I asked it to go over F uh
7:49:47four practice exercises of the chapter
7:49:50five which is the beta distribution in
7:49:53this book that I'm reading basian
7:49:57statistics the fun way okay
7:50:00uh problem wizard C has been practicing
7:50:04new spells you have observed that wizard
7:50:07SE successfully casts a spell 12 times
7:50:09and fails eight times use the beta
7:50:13distribution to model the
7:50:15probability distribution of wizard se's
7:50:19you uh re redo
7:50:25these uh what are they called
7:50:30practice
7:50:33exercises but use
7:50:38basketball example
7:50:42uh problems yeah just think that'd be
7:50:45fun this playoffs right now you
7:50:49know sorry if you hate
7:50:52basketball my
7:50:56bad you might have lucked out cuz she's
7:51:03choking okay exercise one the beta
7:51:06distribution for free throw success
7:51:07rates so player a has been practicing
7:51:10free throws you have observed that
7:51:12player a successfully makes 20 free
7:51:14throws and misses 10 free throws use the
7:51:17beta distribution to model the
7:51:20probability distribution of player A's
7:51:22free throw success
7:51:25rate what are the parameters for this
7:51:28and B beta distribution plot the beta
7:51:31distribution and be this and B what is
7:51:34the most likely success rate for player
7:51:40A's what is the most likely success rate
7:51:42for player A's free
7:51:45throws calculate the probabilities that
7:51:47player A's success rate is between 60
7:51:51and 80 give me the answers too
7:52:01just I haven't even read the book yet so
7:52:02I'm not supposed to know this yet I'm
7:52:04not supposed to know it yet so be easy
7:52:07be be easy
7:52:27GG 490 so they are getting added
7:52:31here buy short long okay XX
7:52:35here it says it's over 3,000
7:52:58break it let's break
7:53:06it oh I need to print out
7:53:09size okay there it is there's a print
7:53:13out so it does
7:53:15work maybe there just wasn't any licks
7:53:17over 3,000
7:53:38so it is
7:53:40printing I want to see a lot of
7:53:42liquidations come through in order to
7:53:44really prove it
7:53:50though so I'll keep that open here on
7:53:53the side while we continue
7:53:56this so for the
7:53:59exercise the problem was player a has
7:54:00been practicing free throws questions
7:54:02okay Solutions the
7:54:04parameter and B the parameters for the
7:54:06beta distribution are based on the
7:54:08number of
7:54:10successes and failures
7:54:12observed number of
7:54:16successes plus one B number of
7:54:21failures plus
7:54:25one plot the beta distribution to plot
7:54:28the beta distribution 21 and 11 you
7:54:32would typically use a software tool like
7:54:33python with librar such as map plot
7:54:38Li it's nice we know
7:54:48this most likely success rate the mode
7:54:52of the beta distribution beta is given
7:54:56by mode this this equation so the most
7:55:00likely success rate is approximately
7:55:1366.7% probability of success rate
7:55:15between 60 and 80% to find this
7:55:17probability you use the cumulative
7:55:20distribution function CDF of the beta
7:55:22distribution
7:55:28this will give you the probability of
7:55:30the success rate being between 60 and
7:55:3380% exercise two distinguishing
7:55:35probability statistics and inference
7:55:38problem you understand the likelihood of
7:55:41a basketball team winning a game you
7:55:43collect data from 50 games and find that
7:55:47the team wins 30 of
7:55:53them what is the probability of the team
7:55:55winning a game based on this data what
7:55:58statistical method would you use to
7:56:00collect this data and
7:56:02why if you use this data to predict the
7:56:05future team's future performance what
7:56:07kind of
7:56:09inference are you
7:56:11making Solutions probability of
7:56:14winning the probability of winning is
7:56:17calculated as the ratio of wins to Total
7:56:20games statistical method the method used
7:56:24here is descriptive statistics where you
7:56:27collect and summarized data about the
7:56:30games this involves recording the
7:56:32outcomes of each game and then
7:56:34calculating the proportion of
7:56:36wins inference using the data to predict
7:56:40the team's future performance is making
7:56:42a statistical
7:56:44inference this is an inferential
7:56:47statistics
7:56:48method where you use sample data to make
7:56:52generalizations or predictions about a
7:56:54larger population in this case the
7:56:57team's future games
7:57:00all right I'm still undecided over here
7:57:03if this is I'm gonna make this a little
7:57:05bigger
7:57:09because let make get a
7:57:15th000 I'm undecided
7:57:17though I'm curious why this one's
7:57:21not oh because it's using the old one so
7:57:24let's see if they match up okay we don't
7:57:25need to have them both running these two
7:57:29we want to see them match up so I need
7:57:30to see some liquidations coming through
7:57:32and until then I'm just going to keep
7:57:33working through this book I'm just
7:57:35reading through the table content so
7:57:36when I do actually read it it will not
7:57:38be new to me it will
7:57:40be seen
7:57:43information and then I'll be able to
7:57:45understand it a little better hopefully
7:57:47so you are analyzing the player's
7:57:48ability to make three-point shots the
7:57:50player has a 40% chance of making a
7:57:52three-point shot You observe the player
7:57:54taking 15 shots in the game what is the
7:57:56probability the player makes exactly six
7:57:59three-point shots in 15
7:58:03attempts what is the probability that
7:58:05the player makes at least one
7:58:07three-point shot in 15
7:58:11attempts how would you collect and
7:58:12record this data for future analysis so
7:58:14the probability of exactly six
7:58:17three-point shots use the binomial
7:58:20probability formula formula so these are
7:58:23just formulas okay that makes
7:58:26sense so we just got know the
7:58:29formulas or like know of them really I
7:58:33don't need to store the actual formula
7:58:36in my brain so no of them binomial
7:58:39probability
7:58:41formula probably of
7:58:43x equals
7:58:466 so this is the math calculate the
7:58:50binomial coefficient and the
7:58:56probabilities h
7:59:00probability of at least one three-point
7:59:04shot the probability of at least one
7:59:07success is
7:59:12the complement of no
7:59:16successes
7:59:18yeah calculate
7:59:23PX collecting
7:59:25data okay look look look Big Lick on on
7:59:29BTC wow that's
7:59:33okx is BTC going up though or
7:59:37down it's going
7:59:42down I think it's backwards this is why
7:59:44I checked
7:59:56it that's why I checked it my
8:00:00guy sweet
8:00:07so I also want to check the other one
8:00:10let's go look at
8:00:12uh binance
8:00:18first
8:00:21copy okay X
8:00:41it's just
8:00:43different this is what it
8:00:46is I Gul very loudly right there because
8:00:49I don't want this to be bad data B let's
8:00:54go ahead and run it
8:00:56back so oops
8:01:42wait so or did it really just get a
8:01:44short
8:01:47lick I don't even know already he
8:01:50is yeah I believe
8:01:53it just the colors are off so I just
8:01:55switched the colors so
8:02:01all right sick I'm super happy we figure
8:02:03that out
8:02:33for okay
8:02:47X
8:02:49liquidation data is actually like the
8:02:53below code for the long lick and sck and
8:03:01colors knowing
8:03:04this
8:03:14please to
8:03:17um add
8:03:23correctly man that one's tough oh big
8:03:26licks here so this is great that I have
8:03:29this information
8:03:31now
8:03:33wow you freaking
8:03:38Noob but now a short
8:03:41lick oh my
8:03:45God that doesn't make sense to
8:03:54me this a little dangerous for me to
8:03:56just be imp my like this quickly
8:04:01but when in Rome you know
8:04:46all right let's just keep watching this
8:04:48then because I don't want
8:04:50to well I think we know it now let's see
8:04:56here e
8:05:47all right let's see how this does I mean
8:05:49I don't want to F it all up
8:05:51but um I'm going go ahead and just make
8:05:54a new file let's say uh
8:05:59recent lick
8:06:01combo
8:06:22Loop okay well that doesn't make sense
8:06:38maths not
8:06:43math on the
8:06:46output math is just not mathing on the
8:06:49output B
8:07:00you see what see that see why it's like
8:07:022 million for total in the last 5
8:07:04minutes but 160 and
8:07:0647
8:07:11ceroni here data frames uh the head of
8:07:15each data frame
8:07:47okay the
8:07:49um see here
8:08:04the above is the
8:08:07output the math isn't
8:08:11math the 5
8:08:13[Music]
8:08:16minute oh sorry I'm an idiot yeah I'm an
8:08:19idiot my
8:08:23bad right yeah yeah yeah I'm an idiot
8:08:26I'm an idiot
8:08:30no no no no I'm not an idiot I'm not an
8:08:32idiot I am an idiot but not this
8:08:37time five
8:08:39minutes a five
8:08:41minute long
8:08:44plus don't equal
8:08:49total okay you got everything I know
8:08:51everything I know you got to ensure the
8:08:53math is correct let's focus on how we're
8:08:55calculating the Longs and shorts
8:08:57okay sick cool let's go back here and
8:09:00continue through this challenge here so
8:09:02reverse engineering a basketball game
8:09:03mechanic in a basketball game simulation
8:09:06players have a 20% chance of scoring a
8:09:09slam dunk you want to understand the
8:09:11likelihood of a player scoring at least
8:09:14one slam dunk in 10 attempts questions
8:09:17what is the probability that a player
8:09:19scores at least one slam dunk in 10
8:09:24attempts what is the expected number of
8:09:26slam dunks a player would score in 10
8:09:30attempts if you want to make the game
8:09:32more challenging how would you adjust
8:09:34the
8:09:35probability of scoring a slam dunk
8:09:37Solutions probability of at least one
8:09:40slam dunk Big Lick here on on I don't
8:09:45even know what okx yeah okx okay so I
8:09:47know that's true here I can see it in
8:09:50the price that okay this is good
8:09:53actually dude this is a big day it's a
8:09:55big move bringing this in here that's
8:09:57like
8:09:58um
8:10:00Mund what are you doing D how come you
8:10:03don't have both of the big exchanges
8:10:06there I don't know that was my
8:10:09bad another moev mistake for the record
8:10:13books all right let's keep it going
8:10:18though see if it outputed all this code
8:10:20yet it did actually so let's go ahead
8:10:22and update it and see if see if we can
8:10:24get the data for the combined two the
8:10:27combo the combo move boom boom byada
8:10:31bang X
8:10:33piece dang dude there it is long licks
8:10:391.87 that's looking pretty nice to me if
8:10:41you ask me but you didn't ask me but
8:10:44I'll tell you that's looking pretty good
8:10:47cuz it's looking like all liquidations
8:10:49are coming on the long
8:10:51side let's go ahead and check it out
8:10:53here there's a short liquidation here 11
8:10:5758 oh that was 30 minutes ago though all
8:11:01the liquidations are coming through okx
8:11:02right
8:11:05now hey but is it doing the math
8:11:08correctly is the question let's double
8:11:10check it let's double check it because
8:11:12we want to make sure this is
8:11:15perfect
8:11:22Perfecto let's go ahead and look at the
8:11:24lick data here this is the lick data
8:11:26here for the okx exchange I don't know
8:11:29where who uses that but I guess a lot of
8:11:31people do but you can see here this is
8:11:34the side the position side that they
8:11:36were in they were shorting and they got
8:11:38licked so they had to buy
8:11:45back the side was by position side was
8:11:51short I don't know
8:11:53dude they sold here cuz they were long
8:11:56so
8:12:01yeah so you got to sell it you got to
8:12:03sell it get it out of here okay so let's
8:12:06see if this math is mathing cu earlier
8:12:09it wasn't so let's check this out here
8:12:13side position side okay TS Tim stamp
8:12:17size here detail is size so that is the
8:12:21red color and it's 2.2
8:12:25Pepe and this is the price the USD
8:12:31size is made by
8:12:35us I was going to get excited right
8:12:37there price is block
8:12:40PX
8:12:41BLK oh what is
8:12:45that bkx bkx okay this is the price that
8:12:50sounds about right to me let's go ahead
8:12:52and look at the price of something that
8:12:54we know 70 cents sounds right to me for
8:12:56MADD
8:12:57let's see something else
8:13:02here I don't even know what front is but
8:13:06it is what it is don't need to know them
8:13:08[Music]
8:13:09all I don't know any of these honestly
8:13:13well some of them but I can't I can't
8:13:15tell you the price like BTC I can tell
8:13:17you the price of BTC 69 that sounds
8:13:19about right the size is that
8:13:22okay the size plus that so this times
8:13:26that should be
8:13:27what is that 370 the 210 yeah okay this
8:13:30is Gucci USD size is right okay I feel
8:13:34confident about this now I'm getting my
8:13:36confidence up so high so so high that I
8:13:41can go ahead and say combo let me run
8:13:43the combo down here copy path this has
8:13:46just changed the game another
8:13:49gamechanging moment in history of the
8:13:52channel that you're here for so 777 to
8:13:55you so so much love
8:13:57and that tells me that we we make
8:14:00gamechanging moments every single day
8:14:01and nobody else is going to see this
8:14:03dude nobody else is going to see this
8:14:05well maybe the inner circle at the end
8:14:07of the week on Friday but I'm not going
8:14:09to tell you how to join that if you
8:14:11can't figure it out you can't figure it
8:14:12out be it is what it is now I'm going to
8:14:15drink a little bit of water because that
8:14:17was a big big moment we just had there
8:14:20now we are tracking all liquidations
8:14:22from not just binance but also okx okay
8:14:27X that's nice why because before you can
8:14:30see the Liquidations in the last hour
8:14:32here 14.3 million on binance but it's
8:14:36pretty close on okx so I got to be
8:14:39tracking that as
8:14:41well I haven't been tracking it but also
8:14:45haven't been storing this information
8:14:46too
8:14:48well I have been storing it but there's
8:14:51gaps in
8:14:52it because this dies we fixed that today
8:14:55we've already fixed it that was a huge
8:14:57move and then we brought in the okx that
8:15:00was another huge move and then we
8:15:02combined the two that's a huge move
8:15:04every single day every single day
8:15:08dude I'm so excited to be here with you
8:15:10777 so much love to you if you need more
8:15:14help I got you just keep showing up keep
8:15:18showing up dude every single day in
8:15:21every single way I'll keep showing you
8:15:23every single thing that I'm working on
8:15:25am I the best in the world no of course
8:15:27not I don't know where the best of the
8:15:29world is though and they're not they're
8:15:30not helping us
8:15:32so let's get it let's eat let's
8:15:36eat I want to go ahead before I get some
8:15:39water because we just had a big
8:15:40breakthrough I want to make sure that I
8:15:42finish this solution here so the
8:15:45probability of at least one slam dunk in
8:15:4710 attempts the probability of at least
8:15:50one success in the comp is of least one
8:15:55success is the compliment of no
8:15:59successes yeah at least one success so
8:16:03it's one minus no slams so calculate P
8:16:07for slam dunks P slam dunks 8 to the
8:16:1010th at least one slam dunk is one minus
8:16:14that the expected number of slam dunks
8:16:17the expected e of X is calculated as e
8:16:20ex then n * P 10 * 2 = 2 or equals two
8:16:28so the expected number of slam dunks is
8:16:30two in 10 attempts adjusting the
8:16:33probability to make the game more
8:16:35challenging decrease the probability of
8:16:38scoring a slam dunk for example change P
8:16:42to
8:16:43point2 from0 2 to 0.1 this will reduce
8:16:46the expected number of slam dunks and
8:16:48make it harder to achieve these
8:16:51Solutions should help you understand the
8:16:53concepts and apply them to basketball
8:16:55scenarios
8:17:00so these were my uh overview here of the
8:17:04beta
8:17:10distribution no
8:17:13dude it was actually this here because
8:17:16that this is chapter 6 I don't know we
8:17:19haven't got there yet
8:17:35okay but this here was
8:17:43this big lick oh my God
8:17:482.9 off uh okay
8:17:51X is that
8:17:54right looks right to me oh man so this
8:17:58changes everything
8:17:59honestly so everything I knew
8:18:03before I wasn't tracking okx so how how
8:18:06am I supposed to know what happened here
8:18:08with the two am of licks right there if
8:18:10I wasn't tracking it you
8:18:14know and if it's 40% of the market
8:18:18that's no that's no small thing so throw
8:18:22everything I said out the window we're
8:18:24starting a fresh starting a new and
8:18:26that's why you're here dude cuz you
8:18:28don't want to miss things like this
8:18:30pivots like this and this is why you
8:18:32can't just go buy somebody's B 15 mil on
8:18:36the eth I have a feeling these are not
8:18:39right these are too big do they just
8:18:41trade mad size over
8:18:52there did they just trade mad size over
8:18:55there is the question
8:18:59that is
8:19:06wild that is why hold let's actually I
8:19:10need to go look at this data because
8:19:11it's just like too big to be
8:19:17true 37
8:19:20BTC that
8:19:22equals 2.5
8:19:25m i mean
8:19:27that was all in one trade
8:19:31too wait
8:19:4737 looks right to me dog let look at
8:19:51that big eth one here oh Maker 2
8:19:58oh so the whales are over here is what
8:20:01you're pretty much telling
8:20:03me like what what no no no this can't be
8:20:06right
8:20:08dog
8:20:18eth position
8:20:23side yeah look at this look at this
8:20:26there's comments here things are getting
8:20:29shifted just like losing my mind over
8:20:34here oh so wild I like there's no way
8:20:39this is happening just missing the whole
8:20:42plot so this is good though this is good
8:20:45that we uh figured it out there's a
8:20:46double comma here so it's just shifting
8:20:49it's multiplying the wrong
8:20:51things but where did that
8:20:53happen why did that happen
8:20:57when did it happen where did it happen
8:20:58why did it happen when did it happen
8:21:01where did it happen why did it
8:21:04happen CC Y what is ccy my
8:21:09guy let's see if it's up here at the top
8:21:13oh no
8:21:27is there that size over there is this
8:21:30okay because
8:21:33it's I mean let's go look at it again
8:21:36that's a big lick dude
8:21:43B&B this is the
8:21:46price this is the
8:21:51size am I
8:21:53tripping did somebody just get licked
8:21:55for 6.5
8:21:58four on on there that's
8:22:03crazy that's just a different ball game
8:22:05over there let's go ahead and
8:22:08see let's go ahead and find that
8:22:21639 639 what do you mean I just saw that
8:22:24oh it's right here
8:22:27so the sell they were in a long so they
8:22:30had to sell and then the price was this
8:22:33the you know block price or PK price
8:22:36whatever that
8:22:39means and the size was
8:22:45this dang
8:22:49dude that's that I mean these are right
8:22:56I'm just feel I'm feeling bad for the
8:23:08person there ain't no way there there's
8:23:10been a 100 million in
8:23:12Liquidations in the last five minutes
8:23:16I'm sorry I don't believe that at
8:23:24all I mean let's go check it check this
8:23:28out a legit data
8:23:31source I'm over here making janky
8:23:36Janks okay let's go ahead here and see
8:23:41how do I change this to exchanges okay
8:23:44one hour
8:24:03[Music]
8:24:15very curious what's going on
8:24:17here I added this complexity by putting
8:24:20a new exchange here but I'm I'm enjoying
8:24:24looking through it and figuring it out
8:24:26so
8:24:28I think it's going to be useful to have
8:24:29both exchanges
8:24:32too ory
8:24:57all right I'm gon say
8:25:01this I don't know I don't want to do it
8:25:03that way because
8:25:04that's I think it has to be in
8:25:07my in this yeah it has to be in that
8:25:10because that's the new thing
8:25:34is that in the same time zone as
8:25:39this or
8:25:45something
8:25:474:30 so the song the same time
8:25:50okay recent licks okay
8:25:55X e
8:26:31but these are all the liquidations
8:26:32coming through
8:27:21you need to update this code so it drops
8:27:23the usdt that's the first place I'm
8:27:25going to start at
8:27:29Le update this
8:27:42code
8:27:44before saving to the
8:27:48file okay that's what I'm going to start
8:27:50with
8:27:56and then I'm G actually delete all this
8:27:58data
8:28:01here I'mma kill it
8:28:30so okay
8:28:43X
8:28:48okay should be right here right
8:28:52okay all right let's watch it up for a
8:28:55minute um e
8:29:36let's see here does it add up
8:29:49now okay um 126 million see that's kind
8:29:53of cap cerona to me
8:30:00it's not even what we're looking at bro
8:30:02it's not even what we're looking at
8:30:03we're looking over
8:30:11here perfect we wanted to remove
8:30:16the the
8:30:17usdt now it's just now it should add up
8:30:21oh and I think now it's looking better
8:30:23yeah
8:30:28yeah so maybe that solved
8:30:45it maybe but it it didn't really solve
8:30:48this part the part with like these huge
8:30:52liquidations I mean it said it it said
8:30:55it though
8:30:56maybe those people really got liquidated
8:30:58at 6.4 million on uh Monday
8:31:02morning so I'm just going to roll with
8:31:06that for now see what's going on here so
8:31:09the price did go it was going down we're
8:31:11we're sure of
8:31:13that so when these were going down the
8:31:16price was going down so we know the
8:31:17direction is correct which is nice let's
8:31:20see there's probably going to be more
8:31:21laks here there should
8:31:24be this is binance over here and this is
8:31:32okx
8:31:34X
8:31:37welcome welcome to
8:31:40okx I think we keep mobbing on this book
8:31:42as well because I got the energy today
8:31:45so you know while I got it let's roll
8:31:49with it so I'm going through this book
8:31:52right now oh man Big Lick right there 5.
8:31:55see that's the where I'm like are you
8:31:57for real for
8:32:00real no I don't believe that at all
8:32:03though because the reason I don't
8:32:04believe it is because the other data
8:32:06source shows
8:32:08no so this is the 5 million
8:32:13here this math is
8:32:17true I believe that math look another
8:32:20one see this is why I don't
8:32:24believe but
8:32:27I mean there would be licks there that's
8:32:30for sure but I guess when I look at this
8:32:33uh coin
8:32:38glass
8:32:53exchanges that doesn't add up
8:32:58so I think it's still cap I still think
8:33:00it's
8:33:02cap but how do we fix it
8:33:07391 I think it's C I think it's
8:33:15C oh
8:33:20okay maybe we're doing the math WR no
8:33:23this math is right
8:33:33oh maybe the
8:33:38price not the price the price looks to
8:33:40be formatted
8:33:44correctly but maybe this is
8:33:49like what does BK price mean not
8:33:54price size maybe the size is is what I'm
8:33:57trying to say maybe the size is
8:33:58different so let's go here and say size
8:34:05okay quantity of
8:34:08liquidation yeah I know that
8:34:17but doesn't fit my
8:34:20thesis maybe that's not it
8:34:27bankruptcy
8:34:34loss this one's
8:34:38tough let's go look at the actual code
8:34:40how about that buddy
8:35:19yes so this just isn't right I mean it
8:35:22is what it is we're going to fix it but
8:35:25I'm glad we figured it
8:35:35out should give us more information
8:35:41right
8:35:48nice so we're essentially going up in
8:35:51here and saying data in the family repl
8:35:54it with usdt so let's go find
8:36:02that
8:36:17what I don't even see the symbol on
8:36:20here CC
8:36:24Y is that the
8:36:27symbol no it's
8:36:38not it's
8:36:46interesting see what data looks
8:36:54like for
8:37:27let's read what they have to say as well
8:37:59okay so this is that insta family I see
8:38:02why okay it gets that um insta ID insta
8:38:05swap uh Uli Uli what is it Uli not usdt
8:38:12okay so this is where it gets the symbol
8:38:15it's fine and it probably says that
8:38:17right
8:38:18here yeah it's data insta family yeah
8:38:22right there it says that but that's okay
8:38:24so I detail side detail
8:38:28side yes that makes sense because it's
8:38:30right here it's the buy
8:38:32side
8:38:34okay time stamp is this yes that's
8:38:39right makes
8:38:40sense fi quantity is
8:38:50size that's right okay the price here is
8:38:55a float of the BK price that seems right
8:38:58to me dude then fi
8:39:02quantity is this times
8:39:17that that seems right to me as well
8:39:45oh maybe this is
8:39:48it you is
8:39:50Eastern pretty sure this is UTC time
8:40:00why is z
8:40:03Eastern I think that's not for that
8:40:05that's just for the print
8:40:12out symbols inst the family minus
8:40:164 what's inst the family again
8:40:40so this has nothing to do with it it's
8:40:42all just prints here
8:40:55I'm confused to be
8:41:24honest e
8:42:15all this math looks good I
8:42:20mean let's look at the binance one here
8:42:24field quantity times
8:42:32price field quantity times price price
8:42:36is the flow of the BK price here this is
8:42:39the price
8:42:43here Tia it should be 1.12 let's make
8:42:47sure that's
8:42:49true because maybe our digits are
8:42:52off this is Africa
8:43:02oh something's off
8:43:06here Tia is
8:43:09$111 okay
8:43:11good oh never mind that's what it
8:43:15says that's what it says that's what it
8:43:18says so it is what it is okay so we know
8:43:21that and we just keep on moving that's
8:43:24all we do we keep moving forward keep
8:43:26moving forward keep moving forward so
8:43:28this data just looks too good to be
8:43:31true to
8:43:34me wait no this right
8:43:38here 391
8:43:42seems no that's actually more
8:43:45appropriate not than this this is what
8:43:47sketch right here 4.9 and that was 1253
8:43:52and that's what is that 12 minutes ago
8:43:5320 minutes ago 10 minutes ago I don't
8:43:56know
8:43:58104 so 10 minutes ago so it shows right
8:44:03here right off top
8:44:264 million that's a 5 million in 10
8:44:29minutes okay but then we look at this
8:44:31and it's not
8:44:33right so let's go here and
8:44:38refresh exchange
8:44:412.53 this is right here five this is an
8:44:44hour so it's off it's
8:44:50wrong I guess I can look at it like this
8:44:52as well okay X has 50% of the licks we
8:44:58did catch that that was
8:45:16clear but we're just getting much higher
8:45:18like this is 10 mil off off top right
8:45:22here off in uh 1 minute 20
8:45:27seconds and that's within the
8:45:29[Music]
8:45:35hour and they're not the same number
8:45:38let's go look at that
8:45:441253 12 53
8:46:01that's too
8:46:02bad I got wa 52
8:46:07three that happened multiple times 5237
8:46:11how many times I have one time okay so
8:46:13this shows a liquidation of a long
8:46:16they're in a long at that time which is
8:46:201252 okay 12:52 p.m. I'm not about to do
8:46:25that conversion actually
8:46:27so
8:46:29um
8:46:3168,000 price multiplied by 76 size
8:46:48here equals 5.23
8:46:51[Music]
8:46:53mil okay and then a few seconds
8:46:58later 23 seconds later another one here
8:47:041.3
8:47:06three yeah 1.3
8:47:09mil followed
8:47:11by 4 seconds
8:47:15later 4
8:47:20mil that's why I'm like n do this is C
8:47:25I think it's cap I I don't know why like
8:47:27why how
8:47:30to fix it is the
8:47:38question I trust this coin glass data
8:47:42because you know they've been here
8:47:44forever or I don't know forever
8:47:51but I just implemented okx today
8:47:57today
8:48:03dude so
8:48:064.1m Longs got licked but I have all my
8:48:10screen
8:48:1210 that's the discrepancy we're looking
8:48:15at
8:48:16here I wonder what's going on I wonder
8:48:19what's going on
8:48:29got the data streaming in here
8:48:34so I think we keep looking at this right
8:48:39here anything weird a sell they had to
8:48:42sell
8:48:45it and this also was a sell this was the
8:48:48other or million
8:49:12my ask
8:49:13gbt because I'm a little stuck here
8:49:16we'll figure it out eventually that's
8:49:18all I
8:49:20know I'm a bit confused
8:49:25above you can see the
8:49:29liquidations of the
8:49:34past I don't know 20 minutes or so and
8:49:40but and there are like
8:49:4510m
8:49:48million at least but in the
8:49:52screenshot of a
8:49:55um verified well I don't know verified
8:49:58but verified tool tool that
8:50:03tracks
8:50:05liquidations it
8:50:07shows a much lower
8:50:11number of
8:50:15licks then our code below is producing
8:50:25I can't
8:50:27figure out what may be going
8:50:32wrong because I
8:50:34look at the
8:50:37CSV above and the math all makes sense
8:50:42to me in the
8:50:49code below is the code I will also give
8:50:55the
8:50:57documentation to okx to see if you can
8:51:02see anything else else else it may be
8:51:08okay so let's give it the
8:51:10code let's give the code let's give the
8:51:12code okay X okay
8:51:16okay okay
8:51:18X okay here's the docs here are the
8:51:22docks
8:51:24okay okay X liquidation
8:51:29orders let's give it a lot not a lot but
8:51:32you know
8:51:34enough
8:51:36okay boom
8:51:39boom all right let's see what you got
8:51:41it's your time to shine all eyes on you
8:51:44all eyes on you
8:52:02DNS says you aren't taking the leverage
8:52:04into account 10m lick could be 1 M lick
8:52:0910x
8:52:10lever yes 100,000 is
8:52:141,000 x Leverage is
8:52:1710 what 100 100,000 at 100x okay X won't
8:52:22give coin glass the lever number only
8:52:25the
8:52:29nominal nominal meaning the total
8:52:31position
8:52:32right or is nominal mean something
8:52:37else um I would assume all this Le or
8:52:41all this data here
8:52:43is with leverage baked in because to
8:52:47leverage doesn't matter right it's just
8:52:49the size of the trade is the size of the
8:52:52trade at the end of the day I think
8:52:54that's that's how I've been looking at
8:52:56it at least like nobody knows how much
8:52:58leverage each each player is using but
8:53:00we know the trade
8:53:02size so I would assume that if they were
8:53:05giving I don't know maybe maybe you're
8:53:07on something here but if they were
8:53:09giving the
8:53:11unlevered actual size
8:53:14here that they were they were betting I
8:53:18guess
8:53:21risking then this would be smaller
8:53:25but I think our problem is the opposite
8:53:27but maybe
8:53:28not let's think about that so these are
8:53:31bigger numbers here
8:53:38and they should be way
8:53:40[Music]
8:53:45smaller I don't know what that is
8:53:47be I'm not looking for the information
8:53:51the if if that means that
8:53:55yeah I don't know what you're talking
8:53:56about my guy I don't know what that
8:54:02is I don't think that they would ever
8:54:04give the information about the their
8:54:07leverage for sure for
8:54:15sure they hunt big
8:54:18positions absolutely agree that's why
8:54:21I'm tracking
8:54:22them but
8:54:26um just a
8:54:28little all right I'm going to go I
8:54:30thought you had some I thought you had
8:54:31some solutions over there but
8:54:34uh doesn't look like it do look he ain't
8:54:38got him he ain't got him that's okay
8:54:41because we going to figure it out here
8:54:44we're going to figure it out so what is
8:54:47going on is the question
8:55:00I actually liked being back there
8:55:03but 40
8:55:0752 okay so this is the chunk of
8:55:21data yo bro DNS says check your DM I
8:55:25don't know what DM you're talking about
8:55:27my
8:55:28dude and I can't because I'm on the I'm
8:55:31on the uh the stream right now so just
8:55:34hit me here bro I'm
8:55:38live he says check check your DM I'm
8:55:41trading these licks in real
8:55:44time that's dope my
8:55:48guy that's dope
8:56:026 I'm GNA go travel with my
8:56:07girl see what she's talking
8:56:10about she was see see what she's talking
8:56:13about okay let's review the code and the
8:56:15logic in detail to ensure that the
8:56:18calculations and outputs are correct
8:56:20there might be issues with how the
8:56:22liquidation sizes are calculated or with
8:56:26how the data is processed reviewing the
8:56:29logic for liquidations parsing the
8:56:31liquidation data ensure the data from
8:56:34the web socket is correctly parched and
8:56:37converted to USD values that's what it
8:56:40is dude I got it I got it I got it it's
8:56:44uh for
8:56:49Strings it's adding strings essentially
8:56:56sorry it's multiplying
8:57:01strings so price times quantity it's a
8:57:04float okay build quantity here ah not
8:57:09it's not
8:57:10it I thought I had it I thought I had it
8:57:13that was big that was so big be that was
8:57:17a big thought was a big thought but I'm
8:57:20just a thought I'm just a thought
8:57:22because that was a big thought and it
8:57:24was not a correct thought that's okay go
8:57:28ahead and prove that though just like
8:57:31maybe okay X print no
8:57:35it's
8:57:37type yeah no no that's bad not a good
8:57:40thought not a good thought decent
8:57:41thought honestly decent thought
8:57:44but reviewing the logic so parsing
8:57:47liquidation data outputting liquidations
8:57:49verify the output logic correctly prints
8:57:52and writes the data to see SV summing
8:57:55liquidations ensure that the summing
8:57:58logic in the final calculation correctly
8:58:00reflects the total long so here's an
8:58:03updated version
8:58:52H what is going on with the liquidation
8:58:58data
8:58:59[Music]
8:59:06for this
8:59:08exchange I cannot remember it
8:59:14name okay X let's go ahead here and
8:59:18paste in this new one here I don't know
8:59:20what it changed but we'll see here in a
8:59:23second
8:59:42Doug says you think they're
8:59:47spoofing
8:59:49no I think this is more about
8:59:51liquidation so there has to be positions
8:59:55I think this I'm I'm effing up
8:59:58somewhere or something
9:00:37doesn't change I mean why would it
9:00:50change time stamp Gucci to me no this is
9:00:54Gucci to me you can see
9:01:08debug what a debugging though what what
9:01:10is
9:01:12that what do I what do I care you
9:01:16know don't
9:01:19save L data okay X
9:01:24front L lick short lick data okay
9:01:29X huh
9:02:00looks
9:02:07fine this is what sketch right here
9:02:35oh my bad though I shouldn't have it
9:02:37both going it's the wrong
9:02:41one so I was like why is it doubling up
9:02:43on
9:02:46us okay let's run it from here this will
9:02:49be a new new test here so
9:02:57finally a new test what's going on with
9:02:59our liquidation data problems to
9:03:05solve
9:03:07too dang look at that oh my goodness
9:03:12that is insane look at that break
9:03:15so add okx we just went let's go this
9:03:20way but if it's 40% if it's 40% The
9:03:23Exchange this is good I mean if it's 40%
9:03:25of liquidations happening there then I
9:03:27have to have it you know we got to have
9:03:29it
9:03:31be
9:03:33so what's going on with okx
9:03:40licks why are they
9:03:44infinitely higher
9:03:49than bance
9:03:57we got to fix
9:03:59that before
9:04:01finishing recent uh the combo well the
9:04:05combo one combo Loop the combo Loop the
9:04:10combo Loop we have to finish that before
9:04:12we move on past the combo
9:04:16loop the loop the
9:04:19loop so that's the question that's where
9:04:23I'm I'm just going to kind of think on
9:04:24it sleep on it
9:04:27really let's go ahead and see if there's
9:04:29anything uh new here that I want to
9:04:39add still this guy catches my eye here
9:04:42and there this guy still catches my eye
9:04:54yo I heard she just sent her whole off
9:04:57here so I want to check that
9:04:59out was like she pumping this
9:05:10Iggy
9:05:13interesting it's not my actual pick
9:05:15though so I'm not actually picking that
9:05:18one
9:05:24this one's sticking around
9:05:30again okay so it's a nice
9:05:33dip oh it's a big dip honestly it's a
9:05:35big
9:05:39dipper
9:05:4275 but what happens after summer you
9:05:51know not in my top four that's for
9:06:00sure this is all going to zero
9:06:02eventually so if you're watching this in
9:06:04the future you can kind of giggle you
9:06:07can giggle because in the future all of
9:06:09these will be zero kind of just want to
9:06:12see each of them though for
9:06:14now we got the sniper sniping down here
9:06:17in the bottom right
9:06:30selfie
9:06:33dog
9:06:35moat it's a good looking
9:06:48chart what is
9:06:50this cat frog cat frog dog shark I'm out
9:06:54hate
9:06:56it what is this P Trump hate
9:07:07it okay
9:07:23this keeps popping up I know it's just
9:07:25an emoji
9:07:29though dang 29
9:07:44mil Rodrigo says Hey DNS you know thanks
9:07:48I agree I think DNS knows some big
9:07:51things here
9:07:57get him out dog get them out let just
9:08:01[Music]
9:08:20know please do a brief
9:08:24review of all the
9:08:27topics we covered
9:08:31today all right so I want to do a brief
9:08:34Brief Review of the topics that the
9:08:36topics that we covered in
9:08:39the in this book the basian statistics
9:08:42the Funway I haven't started reading it
9:08:44yet but kind of dissecting the uh table
9:08:47of content so when I do start reading it
9:08:50I
9:08:51will I'll be ready for it
9:08:59so A Brief Review of topics
9:09:01covered basian statistics basian
9:09:04thinking updating beliefs based on new
9:09:08evidence probability measure How likely
9:09:11an event is to occur basing an in
9:09:15inference making predictions using prior
9:09:20knowledge and new data probability for
9:09:23trading probability calculations
9:09:26estimating chances of trading outcomes
9:09:29combining probabilities the end rule or
9:09:31the or R
9:09:34rule uncertainty measurement probability
9:09:37density formula describes likelihoods of
9:09:40continuous
9:09:41outcomes cumulative dist
9:09:47distribution function probability that a
9:09:50variable is less than or equal to a Val
9:09:56value binomial
9:09:59distribution
9:10:00structure should use for discrete events
9:10:04with fixed numbers of Trials parameters
9:10:08number of Trials and probability of
9:10:10success P binomial
9:10:14coefficient n / K counts ways to achieve
9:10:17K successes in end trials beta
9:10:20distribution purpose models
9:10:23probabilities of probabilities used for
9:10:26success
9:10:27rates parameters
9:10:30successes which are these little
9:10:32squigglies and failures which is the B
9:10:35thing PDF and CDF used to find
9:10:37probability density and cumulative
9:10:39probability statistics and inference
9:10:42collecting data observing and recording
9:10:44outcomes for analysis inference making
9:10:47predictions based on Sample data
9:10:49calculating probabilities binomial
9:10:52probability formula is PX = K or n on
9:10:57top of k p to the K 1 minus p n to the N
9:11:01minus K complement rule so P of X
9:11:06probability of X over K is the same as
9:11:081us P overx because it's the opposite
9:11:11applications in gacha games and trading
9:11:14gacha games understanding probabilities
9:11:17of rare item pools trading managing risk
9:11:20and making informed decisions using
9:11:22probabil ability models practice
9:11:24exercises reviewed beta distribution for
9:11:27free throw success rate parameters
9:11:29plotting mode and probability
9:11:31calculations probability
9:11:35statistics an inference in basketball
9:11:38games calculating win probability
9:11:41statistics and inference calculate or
9:11:43collecting data and calculating
9:11:45probabilities for three point shots
9:11:48exact and cumulative probabilities data
9:11:51recording reverse engineering a b
9:11:53possible game mechanic probability of
9:11:55slam dunks expected number and adjusting
9:11:58game difficulty summary to
9:12:00review today's review covered key
9:12:03Concepts in basian
9:12:07statistics probability binomial and beta
9:12:10distributions data collection and
9:12:12practical applications in scenarios such
9:12:15as bball and
9:12:17trading so this is interesting dude I
9:12:21like this new setup here you can see
9:12:24there was just a Big Lick over here
9:12:26on on this whatever this was so let's go
9:12:30check it out see if it's actually real
9:12:33here I know it's real here because it's
9:12:35just printing the things that are
9:12:38real but my problem here is that
9:12:41actually how much was just
9:12:44licked no see that's there's no way
9:12:47that's true right there 2 mil licked
9:12:50right there let's see what it's looking
9:12:51like what's the where's the chart at be
9:12:54yeah there's no way this is Cap capona
9:12:56there's no way that's 2 mil right there
9:12:58I mean
9:13:00maybe if there's just animals over there
9:13:03but no no no no I'm so confused on that
9:13:08part but I think that's like the type of
9:13:11stuff you got to kind of um think about
9:13:15for a second step away and think about
9:13:19so that's what I'm going to
9:13:21do I hope you come back back every
9:13:23single day because every single day we
9:13:25discover some new things and some new
9:13:29crazy crazy things because my vocab is
9:13:32not that good so we discover crazy
9:13:34things every day okay B I'll see you
9:13:36every day 777 so much love to
9:13:41you so we're not entirely sure if this
9:13:44is working as you can see this shows for
9:13:47446 th000 okay that's a lot that's a lot
9:13:52that's a lot
9:13:54down here let's go ahead and see I'm
9:13:56pretty sure it shows the same though
9:13:58so
9:14:001441 oh well let's just do it this way
9:14:06446
9:14:0833 one okay so it showed that that is a
9:14:13short and they had a buy
9:14:15back 6.4 BTC
9:14:25I don't see anything wrong with the
9:14:41math and then what did gbg say let's
9:14:44just go over what she said maybe sure
9:14:47conversion to USD uh verify that the
9:14:49conversion from the traded size and
9:14:52price to us is
9:14:59correct maybe they have something here
9:15:02that I need to be aware
9:15:06of um I'm not about to read the whole
9:15:09thing though that's for sure
9:15:20websocket I think what I'm going to do
9:15:22is just put this on hold then I mean
9:15:24this was a little quick little pivot
9:15:26over here and it's just not as easy as
9:15:30it
9:15:32looks something is up and I I'll think
9:15:34about it eventually I'll think of it
9:15:36eventually um haven't been able to a the
9:15:39solution yet
9:16:03it's okay though I'm going to go ahead
9:16:06and just keep moving forward without
9:16:12it I'm going to send this back to this
9:16:16copy path we're leaving without you
9:16:19sorry buddy
9:16:24we're leaving without you it is what it
9:16:27is we're missing out on half the
9:16:29liquidations half of the
9:16:32liquidations so the good thing is is
9:16:36that it's
9:16:39half so that's a nice easy number not
9:16:42necessarily half is like 40% but we'll
9:16:45just say half for now just between me
9:16:47and
9:16:51you okay
9:16:56so no I don't want to abandon okay
9:16:58that's why I don't want to abandon it
9:17:04because what I'm thinking like I'm done
9:17:07otherwise you know what I'm
9:17:09saying I'm not done not even close is
9:17:12done just done with this little point
9:17:15because what we needed from this is
9:17:18essentially I wanted to be able to see
9:17:21uh
9:17:23recent Li
9:17:28data this is a
9:17:36loop that does every time
9:17:40frame so I want to rewrite this
9:17:43code
9:17:45um this was just for like my viewing
9:17:48sake
9:17:50so let's go ahead and make a me here too
9:17:59notes 63 we paused a bit on
9:18:04the okay X cuz the
9:18:09values are too high but the
9:18:13math looks
9:18:17Gucci uh
9:18:19moving onto the rest of
9:18:24bot it's really the rest of the script
9:18:28whatever I don't I don't know the
9:18:30difference
9:18:33difference okay so recent Loop here
9:18:37and this is
9:18:43fine I'm going to call this
9:18:51recent l x.
9:18:54py so we had this
9:18:57remember and then I'm going to say hey
9:19:01gbt you still with
9:19:04us above is a
9:19:09looping way of
9:19:12getting the time frame for a
9:19:17bunch but please remove the schedule and
9:19:23looping and
9:19:25all that I want to just be able to pass
9:19:31in the time frame and the what else time
9:19:37frame that time
9:19:39frame that I want to
9:19:43use okay let's see how she does with
9:19:46that one I I was pretty lazy with that
9:19:48so we'll see so here's a revised version
9:19:51of your script that allows you to pass
9:19:53in the time frame as an argument this
9:19:56will calculate the liquidation totals
9:19:58for the specified time frame without
9:20:00looping or scheduling thanks B
9:20:03appreciate you so so much so 5 minutes
9:20:0615 minutes 30 minutes 1 hour good good
9:20:10nice
9:20:13nice we're not doing any saves here I
9:20:15don't think so no
9:20:19way there we go oh 2 CSV where output
9:20:23file name output file name here input
9:20:26file name recent
9:20:45licks I don't want it to save to a file
9:20:48anymore just GNA take that part
9:20:51out again
9:20:54keep that keep this information to
9:20:55yourself
9:21:01bucko
9:21:07delete delete not saving
9:21:10nothing it's not the point of this one
9:21:13no it's
9:21:14not okay return I want to return
9:21:17something though please results
9:21:21DF um
9:21:28total
9:21:32liquidation time
9:21:44frame I just want to return some stuff B
9:21:58yep it's not even a function
9:22:02probably oh my goodness look at me look
9:22:04at me way down here it's
9:22:08tripping that boy
9:22:10tripping
9:22:12okay now what else do we want I want the
9:22:15results DF yeah
9:22:20please I suppose I could have just
9:22:22return of results huh that would be
9:22:24sophisticated of
9:22:27me that would be very sophisticated of
9:22:31me wow look at your boy grow just going
9:22:36to delete that unnecessary code don't
9:22:39need the DF
9:22:42anymore this code is not for
9:22:45me it's for the computer so calculate so
9:22:49let's say results here results
9:22:53okay and then let's say print results
9:22:55okay let's see how this
9:22:58does okay these are the results look at
9:23:02that look at that and then we send it
9:23:05back in this uh nice little what you
9:23:07want to call it a Json I think yeah and
9:23:10you can just tap in tap in tap in tap
9:23:15in curious how that does though I'm just
9:23:18going to get this distraction out of
9:23:20here for now because she played
9:23:26us oh that's one thing I wanted to do
9:23:29actually is test the uh how stable these
9:23:34are time is it no big licks in a
9:23:38[Music]
9:23:46while so results print results but then
9:23:49I want to say um
9:23:56print
9:23:58results. Keys yeah I don't know honestly
9:24:02I really
9:24:05don't okay these are the
9:24:07keys okay so I guess I do I guess I do
9:24:11know let's say
9:24:14print
9:24:16results
9:24:18of um
9:24:21long leg
9:24:23liquid
9:24:27stations
9:24:30nice okay well that's all cool and
9:24:36all I think I'm just still going to
9:24:38return it though like the regular
9:24:43way
9:24:46because it's cool that it's all coming
9:24:49together like I'm understand how
9:24:50Computer Works kind of a little bit
9:24:53but it's about time you know it's about
9:24:56time so let's go ahead and say
9:25:04results
9:25:10Y and then I just want to
9:25:13print
9:25:17F these are the
9:25:20short liquidations
9:25:24okay
9:25:25[Music]
9:25:28so looks pretty Gucci to me looks pretty
9:25:31Gucci to me so that's I'm just testing
9:25:34this to make sure that we can get it
9:25:35because I feel like this is the thing
9:25:37that we're going to be doing I'm going
9:25:39be
9:25:41doing I think I'm going be
9:25:48doing is
9:26:06total liquidations long this is
9:26:13it cuz now this is what okay what I'm
9:26:15trying to say is like okay now we can
9:26:17say
9:26:19if total liquidations are over
9:26:23this you know what I'm
9:26:26saying then do this now let's look at
9:26:29our note sheet
9:26:30because our note sheet has all the
9:26:32answers let's go to it let's get out
9:26:34some of these
9:26:39tabes this is the book that I'm bouncing
9:26:42back and forth between so you know shout
9:26:46out to them thank you thank you for
9:26:48teaching us some stuff I appreciate it
9:26:53brainstorm okay so this is what we're
9:26:56handling right
9:26:57now and our stability is a little bit
9:27:01better so
9:27:02far and we have the things that we
9:27:06need because I just pass in the time
9:27:09frame in
9:27:12here so I'm just going to
9:27:16say
9:27:18lick time frame
9:27:25whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa
9:27:31whoa equals 15 minute um calculate
9:27:42liquidation okay I just did it twice my
9:27:46B my
9:27:48bad I'm just going to say time frame
9:27:50right here then perfect
9:27:53time frame okay and then I'm going to go
9:27:55up here to the top here and then go
9:27:58ahead and say that time frame up there
9:28:01because then I don't have to scroll all
9:28:03the way
9:28:04down um and I'll delete this
9:28:08one now it calculates the results the
9:28:11total liquidations the long liquidations
9:28:13and the short liquidations these are
9:28:16the here let's print them all out these
9:28:19[Music]
9:28:20are the
9:28:23total I love a thank you so
9:28:30much it's funny because we already print
9:28:33them out right above it but print it out
9:28:39twice oh I guess it makes no sense to
9:28:43print it out but I just want to show you
9:28:45what what I'm working with you
9:28:48know print print print um we probably
9:28:51don't need a print these
9:28:52[Music]
9:28:54anymore yeah yeah we shouldn't print
9:28:56those
9:28:57anymore yeah
9:28:59yeah okay this is ready for the computer
9:29:01though is what I'm trying to say these
9:29:03numbers are ready so what I'm thinking
9:29:05here is I mean let's look at these
9:29:08charts gme saga continues pretty cool to
9:29:12see um we look at these charts
9:29:18here we had these liquidations that were
9:29:21kind of basing off of right
9:29:22now this one right here was 15 M and it
9:29:26was a couple days ago two days ago
9:29:28now and
9:29:30um this one was two
9:29:34M's it turned around a little bit but
9:29:37does it turn as much as that I don't
9:29:39know or is there more to
9:29:42liquidate the volume seems to be similar
9:29:44which is
9:29:46interesting okay
9:29:48so I'm going to skew for here
9:29:57like a bigger number than
9:30:00two but in order to do that I had to get
9:30:05this I'm going to start
9:30:12with
9:30:1315 yes I know that's
9:30:16high
9:30:18but that's 1.5 so that's 15 1 2 3 3 2
9:30:25Uno
9:30:2815 okay so now they're actually bigger
9:30:35than 15 amp okay so if total liquidation
9:30:40is over
9:30:42that so let's make the bot def bot
9:30:57okay
9:31:03sick and then let's Loop the bot how do
9:31:06we Loop the bot well the
9:31:09notion and our
9:31:12brainstorms no strategies no in the RBI
9:31:17system open in new tab
9:31:22T it
9:31:24up don't know what that
9:31:26was so it's in
9:31:30the this thing here perfect this is
9:31:34exactly what I
9:31:37needed oh oh go ahead say
9:31:42bot okay let's import schedule up
9:31:48here import schedule
9:31:52time please thank you appreciate
9:31:58you okay so now we have this and now
9:32:00we're got to say bot because we changed
9:32:02it running algo okay let's see if we can
9:32:06get this to run
9:32:08here and it should run every 15 minutes
9:32:12no way how about seconds dude
9:32:17okay so these are the total liquidations
9:32:20and it should update
9:32:22it should update every 15 seconds here
9:32:24so let's see if that changes or if it's
9:32:27karona it could be karona because we
9:32:30just built it you know so it's the
9:32:34same I don't see any licks coming
9:32:36through though
9:32:39oh let's look at the uh actual data
9:32:44here little nerve-wracking huh let's go
9:32:48ahead here and see if this changes if
9:32:50this changes and this
9:32:57doesn't there it is it changed did it
9:33:00change here
9:33:03yep
9:33:15dope okay so we got all that stuff
9:33:28unfortunately there's not going to be
9:33:29much back testing to be done
9:33:33here for a while I mean couple weeks at
9:33:45least that's the sketch part about
9:33:47this
9:33:49but I'm fortunate to have have $10 to
9:33:53blow on a live test I don't recommend
9:33:57doing this at
9:34:00home come with your own ideas the only
9:34:03way this stuff would ever work
9:34:28all right so this looks guci so we have
9:34:30all the information we need in order to
9:34:32move to the next
9:34:34steps let's go back to the
9:34:38brainstorm so one of the ideas was using
9:34:42the stat ARB so I think I'm going to do
9:34:44that
9:34:48absolutely start back testing
9:34:50liquidation data
9:35:04in 15
9:35:07days new back test for the funding
9:35:11rate open interest tracking to
9:35:14measure lck
9:35:16wipeouts I think
9:35:20this is a easy
9:35:24bunny get out of here cuz I don't want
9:35:27you here
9:35:28anymore it's time for you to go
9:35:45go it's time for you to get
9:35:48Ghost I'm
9:35:50sorry you can't be here
9:36:04anymore open
9:36:06interest what was that other one we
9:36:08wanted to do here so if I go to read
9:36:12me Ohi and funding rate that's right
9:36:22oi and funding
9:36:27rate have those running in parallel oi
9:36:31funding rate and
9:36:39licks and
9:36:43then we can have all that
9:36:47information the
9:36:495m 5 minute 15 minute 30 minute 1
9:36:53[Music]
9:36:54hour and so
9:36:57on okay I like that I like that plan
9:37:32all right so one of the books that I'm
9:37:34trying to read here is this
9:37:37one basy and statistics the fun
9:37:41way dang I already had a folder for this
9:37:45I could have just put it in
9:37:49here but maybe I'll link to it or
9:37:51something
9:37:56I'm going to keep going through this
9:37:57because I feel like we have a good plan
9:38:00for tomorrow or yeah yeah exactly
9:38:04tomorrow for the next time I see you and
9:38:08probabilities and statistics are
9:38:10important to understand and trading
9:38:14don't be intimidated by that because I'm
9:38:15not the best in the world not not even
9:38:17close I'm like not very good at math
9:38:25but
9:38:26um got to keep learning that so I'm
9:38:30excited to jump into this book and for
9:38:32now I'm going to keep doing my little
9:38:35table of contents thing and see how that
9:38:39goes
9:38:40so
9:38:42please give me
9:38:46an uh a summary of these topics so I
9:38:54fully understand
9:38:57them
9:38:59conditional
9:39:03probability y
9:39:05conditional Pro is
9:39:11important
9:39:15dependence and the revised rules of pro
9:39:23conditional
9:39:25probabilities in
9:39:27reverse and base
9:39:30[Music]
9:39:36theorem theorem
9:39:42intro
9:39:46um use trading Bots as your your stories
9:39:53or
9:39:54examples okay I think that's appropriate
9:39:57I think that's perfect actually so I'm
9:40:00glad you're here dude we're learning
9:40:02this together dude all of it
9:40:07everything anything I do you see dude
9:40:11you're right on
9:40:13time sure let's go through these topics
9:40:16with trading Bots as examples to help
9:40:18understand them fully conditional
9:40:21probability conditional probability is
9:40:24the probability of an event occurring
9:40:28given that another event has already
9:40:31occurred it's written as p a b which
9:40:35reads as the probability of a given
9:40:39B imagine your trading bot is programmed
9:40:42to buy a crypto if the price drops
9:40:46significantly after a high trading
9:40:48volume
9:40:51you want to know the probability of a
9:40:53price drop event a given that there was
9:40:56a high trading volume event B so price
9:41:01stop drop you're trying to predict based
9:41:03on high volume why conditional
9:41:06probability is important importance
9:41:09conditional probability helps you make
9:41:11better decisions by considering
9:41:13additional information it refines your
9:41:18predictions and actions based on the
9:41:20context or conditions
9:41:23present example without considering
9:41:26trading volume your Bot might make less
9:41:29informed Decisions by incorporating
9:41:32conditional
9:41:33probability it can better predict price
9:41:35drops when high trading volume occurs
9:41:38improving the bot's performance and
9:41:41profitability dependent on the revised
9:41:44rules of probability
9:41:46dependence events are dependent if the
9:41:49occurrence of one fects the probability
9:41:52of another one the revised rules of
9:41:55probability take this into account
9:41:57revised rule for dependent events the
9:42:00probability of both events A and
9:42:03B happening is p a and b equals p a * P
9:42:08if a probability of B if a is true
9:42:13or yeah if we know it example suppose
9:42:17your trading bot detects a pattern where
9:42:19a significant price drop of a increases
9:42:22the likelihood of a quick rebound event
9:42:25B these events are dependent and using
9:42:28the revised rule helps the bot predict
9:42:30rebounds more
9:42:33accurately conditional probabilities in
9:42:36reverse and Bas theorem reverse
9:42:38conditional probability sometimes you
9:42:40know the conditional probability in One
9:42:43Direction but need it in reverse this is
9:42:45where base theorem comes in base theorem
9:42:49Bas theorem help helps calculate the
9:42:52reverse conditional probability it's
9:42:54written
9:42:55as B
9:42:58A equals that your trading bot knows
9:43:02that if a price drop
9:43:05occurs there's a high trading volume now
9:43:09you want to know the probability of a
9:43:11price drop given that high trading
9:43:14volume was
9:43:15Observe base theorem helps with this
9:43:18reverse calculation so an intro to base
9:43:21theorem base theorem is a fundamental
9:43:25principle in probability theory that
9:43:29allows you to update the probability of
9:43:31a hypothesis based on new evidence it
9:43:36combines prior knowledge with new data
9:43:38to make more accurate
9:43:40predictions so this is a
9:43:42[Music]
9:43:43Formula so p a is how it's signified but
9:43:48this is how it's actually written proba
9:43:50of a a given btimes probility
9:43:55A over B imagine your trading bot has
9:43:59prior data indicating a 30% chance of a
9:44:03price drop prior probability it also
9:44:06knows that when a price drop occurs
9:44:09there's an 80% chance of high trading
9:44:12volume likelihood if High trading volume
9:44:16is observed B
9:44:19ethereum helps update the probability of
9:44:22a price
9:44:23drop so prior probability is PA
9:44:26probability of a price drop is 30% so
9:44:29likelihood PBA probability of high
9:44:32volume given a price drop is 80%
9:44:35marginal probability overall probability
9:44:38of high volume calculated from the
9:44:41data base theorem so price drop high
9:44:45volume price drop high volume and this
9:44:47just this PA price drop
9:44:53PBA volume by applying this the bot can
9:44:56better estimate the likelihood of a
9:44:59price drop when it observes High trading
9:45:02volume leading to more informed trading
9:45:05decisions summary conditional
9:45:07probability helps predict events based
9:45:10on the occurrence of related events
9:45:13crucial for refining trading strategies
9:45:15importance provides context based
9:45:18predictions improving decision making
9:45:21and trading Bots
9:45:23dependence acknowledges the relationship
9:45:26between events refining probability
9:45:28calculations with the revised rules
9:45:31reverse conditional probabilities and
9:45:33Bas theorem allows for updating
9:45:36probabilities based on new evidence
9:45:39essential for dynamic decision making
9:45:42Bas theorem integrates prior knowledge
9:45:45with new data to make more accurate
9:45:47predictions enhancing the trading bot's
9:45:50effectiveness
9:45:51using these Concepts your trading B can
9:45:54better navigate market conditions
9:45:56anticipate price movements and execute
9:45:59trades with higher accuracy okay sick
9:46:02let's go to books
9:46:04here
9:46:06and where are we at chapter 5 to be D to
9:46:12be to be
9:46:15done all right let's paste it in there
9:46:18this was um conditional probability
9:46:24conditional
9:46:27probability all right sick let's go
9:46:29ahead and do some
9:46:31[Music]
9:46:36exercises let's do three
9:46:40exercises please create three exer
9:46:46sizes based on this conditional
9:46:52probability
9:46:55section uh with a trading bot
9:47:01theme then walk me through how to
9:47:06solve them and the
9:47:09answer this is just I'm just reading the
9:47:12table contents here of this book um the
9:47:14book is called uh basy and statistics
9:47:17the fun way trying to get everything
9:47:19introduced into my mind before I uh do a
9:47:22deeper read of the actual
9:47:25book trying something new here so let's
9:47:27go ahead and read through this sure
9:47:30let's create three exercises based on
9:47:32conditional probability with a trading
9:47:34bot theme and then I'll walk you through
9:47:37how to solve them exercise One Price
9:47:40stop drop prediction problem your
9:47:41trading bot has historical data showing
9:47:44when high trading volume is observed
9:47:47there's a 70% chance of a price drop
9:47:50additionally the overall probability of
9:47:52high trading volume is 20% and the
9:47:56overall probability of a price drop is
9:47:5915% what is the probability of high
9:48:01trading volume given a price
9:48:04drop what is the probability of
9:48:06observing both High trading volume and a
9:48:09price
9:48:09drop Solutions probably of high trading
9:48:13volume given a price drop using base
9:48:16theorem so this is base theorem
9:48:29so proba price drop is 20
9:48:4070.7 plugging in the values
9:48:56jump the step on me 7times 0.2 okay 0. 2
9:49:00is a high volume I get that I get the
9:49:03price drop 7 this is 0.15 though and
9:49:07that tricked me
9:49:10up price drop price drop price
9:49:15drop price
9:49:17drop price drop where you get this 15
9:49:20from I see it's up here so and the
9:49:22overall probability of a price drop at
9:49:3515% given the okay sorry sorry sorry
9:49:40sorry okay this is I was
9:49:43overthinking I was thinking this was the
9:49:46price drop but this is the price drop
9:49:49with the high volume
9:49:55just the table contents be slow down you
9:49:58don't have to understand it all now
9:50:00probability of observing both High
9:50:02trading volume and a price drop so it'
9:50:08be
9:50:10this multiply by
9:50:14that okay exercise two successful trade
9:50:18probability
9:50:21your trading bot records that when a
9:50:24specific technical indicator signals
9:50:26there's a 60% chance of making a
9:50:29successful trade the indicator triggers
9:50:3325% of the time and the overall
9:50:36probability of making a su successful
9:50:39trade is 20% what is the probability
9:50:42that the technical indicator signaled
9:50:45given a successful
9:50:48threat was this the probility of both
9:50:51the indicator signaling and making a
9:50:54successful
9:50:55thread solution so probability that the
9:50:58technical indicator signal given a
9:51:01successful trade using base
9:51:02[Music]
9:51:08the so successful trade this you know we
9:51:12have all this information just plug it
9:51:14in plugging it in probability of both
9:51:18the indicator and Signal lean and making
9:51:21a successful
9:51:31trade exercise three Trend reversal
9:51:34prediction your problem your trading bot
9:51:36identifies that when a trend reversal
9:51:39pattern
9:51:40happens there's an 80% of a pricec
9:51:44increase the pattern is identified 30%
9:51:46of the time the overall probability of a
9:51:48price increase is 25% % what is the
9:51:52probability that a trend reversal was
9:51:54identified given a price
9:51:56increase what is the probability of both
9:51:59identifying a trend reversal and price
9:52:01increase so again we just use Pythagoras
9:52:04and the theorem we use Baye uh theorem
9:52:08here in order to just plug that data
9:52:13in all right I feel like those were some
9:52:15good little exercises I just need to see
9:52:17it I just need to see it before I
9:52:18actually read it um
9:52:21what was that chapter six
9:52:24here that was chapter
9:52:27six cool and this seems to
9:52:35be doing a good job it's doing a good
9:52:38job
9:52:39still um we should we should make this
9:52:42so it says the things so okay X licks
9:52:46recent licks recent licks Loop yeah this
9:52:49one
9:52:53okay so back to
9:52:57this because I want to
9:53:00keep thinking about it at
9:53:02least it's good to get all ready for
9:53:06this book I'll probably read some
9:53:09later this is the RBI this is these are
9:53:12the steps to build a bot kind of
9:53:15skipping the back test part which is
9:53:17sketch so don't do this at home don't do
9:53:19this at home
9:53:21unless you got cash to
9:53:24burn it's the only
9:53:27way I still don't recommend it Implement
9:53:30risk controls into bot
9:53:32Implement strategy into bot are we
9:53:35entering limit or
9:53:38market so I'm not super interested in
9:53:40just like buying when it's overx
9:53:43liquidations that's that's not
9:53:48um strategy I'm trying to
9:53:52do but we look at my notes
9:53:58Here definitely want to do open
9:54:07interest I think it's statar this is
9:54:10this is that's what I'm curious about
9:54:12like what happens when I hit a stat AR
9:54:15on these times of liquidations you know
9:54:20so
9:54:21so that's where I'm trying to get to and
9:54:24until then I think what I'm going to do
9:54:26here is look at the look at these two
9:54:30things it's not this is actually not one
9:54:32see here um open
9:54:35interest plus funding
9:54:39rates let's get that in there somehow
9:54:42and then combine them because that's
9:54:44going to be super nice to have all the
9:54:47three tools because I feel like open
9:54:49interest is all of of the traders that
9:54:53have leverage positions and then
9:54:56liquidations are them getting
9:54:58liquidated and then the funding rates
9:55:00are a tool
9:55:04that that these exchanges use to
9:55:08like incentivize you know they just
9:55:11casinos be they're just casinos trying
9:55:14to
9:55:15incentivize the old ladies to go play
9:55:17the slot machines
9:55:20you're trading by hand yes you are
9:55:23an old lady smoking her cigarette at the
9:55:26slot machine in Vegas so as long as you
9:55:29know that that's cool
9:56:08okay here we go in the last 15 minutes
9:56:11that looks better so what I'm going to
9:56:14do here
9:56:17is grab this Jupiter file here because
9:56:20we have all this information
9:56:23though
9:56:25tape I'm looking at this Soul
9:56:29[Music]
9:56:31refund nice funks
9:56:36pre okay
9:56:38[Music]
9:56:39so Tap maybe we don't no I know we do
9:56:43it's just probably somewhere else
9:57:04I know I got my
9:57:06server but I have it somewhere
9:57:11else I'm just going to look through some
9:57:13files here
9:57:22where would I put
9:57:31it where the dang files
9:57:35at hey bring those F back over to
9:57:44me not it strike
9:57:48one 77 77 to you how many strikes you
9:57:51think it's going to
9:57:58take funding rate's actually right here
9:58:01I found the funding
9:58:04rate so let's get this bad boy up say
9:58:07copy
9:58:08path it's a win that's a win
9:58:14okay okay but but what do we where do we
9:58:17start I don't think we do
9:58:23so I should just bring it over here yeah
9:58:27I should if it's not being stored then
9:58:30there's no point of it being over there
9:58:32okay bring it over here dog come on come
9:58:35here come
9:58:37here
9:58:39lending py
9:58:41hi
9:58:45hi okay let's test it out let's test her
9:58:48out I think I need to go ahead and save
9:58:51this to a CSV though and it's going to
9:58:53be called funding rate and I just want
9:58:55to replace every
9:58:58second I can probably figure this out
9:59:00right now should I try
9:59:07it save to a
9:59:19CSV with
9:59:25pandas I'm not going to do
9:59:28this I am GNA do it I am gonna do
9:59:33it not gonna do it come on
9:59:36do
9:59:39dfpf yeah yeah yeah yeah that's it okay
9:59:43funding yeah there we go okay now how
9:59:46you looking now how you looking now
9:59:49please tell me me how you looking now
9:59:52show me
9:59:54yourself
9:59:55boom
9:59:57Oh
9:59:59but where's that funding that
10:00:11CSV it's because you don't know you're
10:00:13doing
10:00:15Moon that's why
10:00:21okay let's just have the professional do
10:00:24it update this code so it saves to
10:00:31data um
10:00:33funding. CSV
10:00:37correctly
10:00:38because it doesn't work for
10:00:42me because I'm using the websocket I'm a
10:00:45noob
10:01:03that makes sense
10:01:24right
10:01:26um I'm G say this too actually recent
10:01:31licks BMB
10:01:33licks and go ahead make
10:01:39sure please update the code I just sent
10:01:45you to to ensure to ensure
10:01:50that it has a robust fail
10:01:55safe like the
10:01:58code above I just
10:02:02sent okay I might have just after up
10:02:05like she might be thinking she needs to
10:02:08give me this code but we'll
10:02:12see yeah it is sorry doing that I said
10:02:15it I said it
10:02:17incorrectly but it's okay what did I
10:02:31even no I me I want this
10:02:42code this is the code I want
10:02:46you to put that
10:02:50robust fail safe
10:02:54in the other was just an
10:02:59example of that fail save I'm holding
10:03:03down shift that entire time that was a
10:03:06that was an entire hold down of shift
10:03:08while I was typing it said H cap
10:03:12blocks he brought of
10:03:15me I'm proud
10:03:20I'm definitely proud I'm a long way so
10:03:24tape big I'm looking for open
10:03:26interest licks tape
10:03:30tape Soul refund tool nice funks main
10:03:35licks
10:03:37prels so I'm not going to do this wild
10:03:40goose chase here I'm just going to go
10:03:42straight to the
10:03:44source let's go straight to the swords
10:03:47B let's go straight to the Source okay X
10:03:51okay
10:03:52next
10:03:54binance yeah that's exactly you know me
10:03:57you know what exactly where I'm trying
10:03:58to go General I can't use the general
10:04:03unfortunately I only can use the
10:04:05websocket I don't know
10:04:07why
10:04:08[Music]
10:04:12well I do know why
10:04:17actually well I don't know why they
10:04:19don't block though this this as
10:04:22[Music]
10:04:24well all market ticker streams
10:04:27individual
10:04:29continuous live unsubscribe subscribing
10:04:33unsubscribing
10:04:34aggregate I don't know if they have it
10:04:44unfortunately dang
10:04:47B contract info
10:04:53stream I know they got it
10:04:59here open interest right here but the
10:05:03thing is it's not going to let me use
10:05:13it that's okay
10:05:15though I'll pop up in a whole another
10:05:18country I'll pop them in a whole another
10:05:19country real
10:05:21quick if I need to if I need to I'll pop
10:05:25up in a whole another
10:05:27country open interest
10:05:31stats bring it all the way
10:05:43down let's grab this first and make sure
10:05:47we get this working before we move on
10:05:48hopefully this one works or else I'll
10:05:50remove
10:05:51that oops that's not
10:05:57it I delete so
10:06:00quickly deleted
10:06:03funing nice dude it's there and it's
10:06:07changing perfect perfect perfect good
10:06:09job good job all right now switch it up
10:06:11for me switch it up this is brand new
10:06:14this is brand
10:06:16new great thank you that worked now we
10:06:22are moving on please build me a
10:06:27script
10:06:29that runs every one
10:06:33minute every 30
10:06:37seconds seconds and
10:06:41append the
10:06:43new
10:06:46CSV um no I'm going to do one minute
10:06:49it's just going to be
10:06:52easier one minute one minute every one
10:06:56minute and appens CSV with the
10:07:01[Music]
10:07:03new open
10:07:08interest
10:07:10[Music]
10:07:12info
10:07:14um have as much info in that that
10:07:21DF as
10:07:23possible uh to start to start and we can
10:07:28remove some later
10:07:33okay
10:07:34[Music]
10:07:37um all right just go ahead have fun have
10:07:41fun with that and let's see what's going
10:07:42on over here
10:07:45on our academic
10:07:47side well teach me a little bit
10:07:50[Music]
10:07:52more
10:07:54please walk me through these Concepts so
10:07:59I fully understand
10:08:04them using trading
10:08:09bot Bots as your
10:08:14examples okay so let's say b or base
10:08:26theorem I mean okay so this chapter is
10:08:29really
10:08:31about examples and
10:08:44stuff okay cool so this book then now
10:08:47goes into
10:08:52a bunch of
10:09:03examples I like
10:09:16it so maybe I'll do a few chapters here
10:09:20just things that because I'm seeing a
10:09:21lot of examples here uh let's do
10:09:26uh
10:09:28one give me a give me a
10:09:33conditional
10:09:37probability base
10:09:40theorem with Legos
10:09:47example walk me through the
10:09:58math um
10:10:04solve the
10:10:06likelyhood something
10:10:12happened um
10:10:14normalizing the data
10:10:24likelihood of
10:10:27alternative
10:10:41hypothesis
10:10:43R and posterior
10:10:54comparing
10:10:57unnormalized
10:11:00posteriors okay sick we get that in
10:11:02there and we'll get back to it she's
10:11:04done by
10:11:06now okay so this goes ahead and is a
10:11:10script to get the open interest and it
10:11:12should be appending it to data openen
10:11:15interest. CSV I mean we'll see we'll see
10:11:19see dude o i o i o i open interest open
10:11:27ENT rante py paste
10:11:35okay that's not it dog it's a funny R
10:11:39bot bro bro run it OS is not defined Lop
10:11:45okay so every 1 minute oh okay I need to
10:11:49it right away yes that's the first thing
10:11:52I need to do anyways let's go ahead here
10:11:55and run it one
10:11:56time one time wow true schedule oh snap
10:12:03that got me that me
10:12:06jump have me jump I would have me jump
10:12:11out my
10:12:13seat
10:12:17except time do sleep
10:12:20pass job what was the error though dang
10:12:24oh this OS wasn't in there import
10:12:27OS import OS
10:12:30yes symbol open interest and
10:12:34time let's see if we can get
10:12:36it nothing printed that's okay I would
10:12:41rather it did but this is open interest
10:13:01interesting in what format
10:13:11though yeah it's
10:13:17definitely we need to get the
10:13:22price add a column that
10:13:30is oh but it's not going to be able to
10:13:32get the price because I can't top in
10:13:34there I can use a different place to get
10:13:38the
10:13:39price dang this is going to be dirty
10:13:41dude dirty it's going to be just a dirty
10:13:44implementation let me try to think this
10:13:45through I'm not going to be able to grab
10:13:47the price off of
10:13:54um this place
10:14:03because because the
10:14:05[Music]
10:14:14uh because I they blocked my my country
10:14:21they block my
10:14:23country that's
10:14:32why trying to think here what's the best
10:14:34way to do
10:14:45this I don't need to track all these
10:14:48that's the first thing
10:14:53just going to track BC and
10:14:57e that's the first thing we're going to
10:14:59do that's the first
10:15:01move it's the first move all right
10:15:04that's a good I think that's a good move
10:15:25all right let's see if it brings it in
10:15:27still I mean I don't see why I
10:15:31wouldn't don't save I don't want oh my
10:15:34goodness they're getting them at least
10:15:36they're getting them they don't get
10:15:40me okay so it looks good
10:15:53I'm just going to grab the price from
10:15:55hyper liquid because I got it sting
10:15:57right here
10:16:00so let's go ahead and just cop that um
10:16:04funky Funk
10:16:07here out of the uh nice
10:16:11funks so I got this hyper liquid
10:16:14connection here and this is going to be
10:16:16ask bit y this how you get ass bid
10:16:20B but um
10:16:24remember GPZ there's something I got to
10:16:27tell you I'm not going to tell everybody
10:16:30I'm just going to tell the ones
10:16:33here N I can't tell you sorry dude I
10:16:37can't tell you I can't tell
10:16:39you all right let's paste it in there
10:16:42okay uh Json import Json
10:16:50I will tell you I'm not that whack um
10:16:53drop usdt drop usdt that's it that's not
10:16:57it's not anything
10:16:59secret
10:17:01please update the code so that it
10:17:07grabs
10:17:10the ask price and sets it as the price
10:17:17for that asset in
10:17:21the DF and then makes a new
10:17:27column for the value being the
10:17:31[Music]
10:17:33multiplication of
10:17:35price times
10:17:39size and
10:17:42then
10:17:47um open interest here
10:18:00so you can just get price every
10:18:17minute get PR
10:18:19at the start of every Loop to keep it
10:18:26simple so it's going to Loop all the
10:18:28time
10:18:34so sure here's the updated script that
10:18:36includes ask price and calculates the
10:18:39value okay oh snap that's what I forgot
10:18:42I forgot the I forgot the thing that I
10:18:44was supposed to tell you or I wasn't
10:18:46supposed to tell you but then I told you
10:18:47I forgot that one so my bad my bad let
10:18:50me get back there let me get back
10:18:54there by the way the hyper
10:18:59liquid token is
10:19:02formatted like this um
10:19:06BTC so we will need to drop the let's
10:19:11see if that's actually
10:19:12fact is that fact St
10:19:16fnding it's not fact
10:19:19there but open interest big facts big
10:19:23facts big facts let's go ahead and get
10:19:27it out of here drop the
10:19:29usdt here is an example
10:19:33[Music]
10:19:35below of the DF okay sick we got what we
10:19:39need there um I'm glad you're here 777
10:19:43so much love to you all the time B all
10:19:46the time
10:20:15see how this one does
10:20:17here okay so we're going to go over here
10:20:20to open interest because I think this is
10:20:22going to be pretty interesting to have
10:20:23in the bot as
10:20:27well okay so here you can see it's
10:20:30passing in the symbol here um the symbol
10:20:34when it asks for the ask bid when does
10:20:35it ask for the ask bid for symbol and
10:20:38symbols okay ask bid yes oh replace
10:20:42usdt yes with nothing upper boom value
10:20:46calculate the value is open interest
10:20:48okay then we pass back the value open
10:20:51interest times ask price ask price boom
10:20:55is the value we're passing back the
10:20:57value we're passing back the as price
10:20:59we're passing that time stamp and the
10:21:01open
10:21:02interest and the symbol. upper wow clean
10:21:07clean clean all right I like it let's go
10:21:11ahead and uh get rid of the open
10:21:13interest here is this it yeah peace good
10:21:16seeing you good knowing you hope to see
10:21:19you soon appreciate your presence 777 to
10:21:23you
10:21:24CSV you're going to be a goodl looking
10:21:26CSV when we're done with you
10:21:29yes but now there's no headers
10:21:43be this is great but it lost its headers
10:21:57do I need them though yeah it's nice to
10:21:59have it's nice to have for real for real
10:22:01it's like having print statements you
10:22:05know I think it's more important than PR
10:22:08statements now I say
10:22:14it my screen look like Christmas all
10:22:16year round all year round
10:22:19my screen is Christmas all year
10:22:23round so welcome to the Christmas
10:22:27show every single day I'm here where you
10:22:30at you here 777 tap in every time you
10:22:33see me even if it's just for a second
10:22:36get a rep in one rep is better than
10:22:40zero all right let's go ahead here and
10:22:44to ensure the CSV file retains his name
10:22:47okay let's delete this one okay
10:22:51peace okay leak
10:22:54leaks open
10:23:01interest it's crazy I have no API keys
10:23:04on this
10:23:05file because you I'm like over here like
10:23:08moving sketchy trying not to hit my
10:23:11don't share config but I forgot or I
10:23:14didn't forget I just noticed there's no
10:23:17API keys in and this is all free public
10:23:19data and that's so big that's so
10:23:23big so you can see this is the open
10:23:26interest now because we did price which
10:23:29is
10:23:3069329 and
10:23:33e37 780
10:23:58I'm still thinking about that okx data
10:24:00be
10:24:02honest keeps popping my mind but soon a
10:24:05solution will pop soon a solution will
10:24:17arise e
10:25:08how much is this though one two three
10:25:12one two
10:25:153 4.3 bill
10:25:23so I think we got it um
10:25:52return data
10:26:02B DF return data all it I want all of
10:26:10it all
10:26:13right so that's going to fetch open
10:26:16interest um wanted to do something else
10:26:19with
10:26:20it oh I wanted to toal total up the two
10:26:27columns make a total
10:26:40column no make a
10:26:46total variable
10:26:51that
10:27:06sums
10:27:09print and then let's send back
10:27:16total wonder how that's going to
10:27:21do that should be our only print
10:27:26actually data
10:27:309.7
10:27:32billion of open
10:27:35interest you think that's
10:27:38true I honestly don't know but I can I
10:27:41feel like I can figure this
10:27:42up and so we go on another
10:27:46Journey just me and you you and I every
10:27:50single second every single minute every
10:27:52single day I'm here where you at B let's
10:27:56keep going just keep
10:27:59swimming let's rest at the end
10:28:01B let's rest at the
10:28:05end so total value of all open interest
10:28:08here is 9.7
10:28:11b
10:28:13b coin coin glass no that's not the one
10:28:18it's not where I want to go coin gecko
10:28:20yes why because I want to see here
10:28:2424hour volume let's go to exchanges
10:28:27please crypto exchanges okay
10:28:29decentralized derivatives yes binance
10:28:32open interest 21 bill I believe
10:28:36it and it is saying pretty much half of
10:28:39it
10:28:41is that
10:28:50mhm look at
10:28:53that
10:28:565.4 I mean this is almost to a t as it
10:28:59should be as it should
10:29:03be we're missing Miss uh we're missing
10:29:06missing like I'm I'm
10:29:09stuttering I know but
10:29:12no I think I I can't hear you anymore
10:29:22all right so this is 9
10:29:24million. 7 so it's actually not all of
10:29:28the things we're finding out Secrets
10:29:31here but it's the majority of them so
10:29:34that's cool with me so 9.7
10:29:48lot of sales coming through here 4.5
10:29:49million just off the top BTC boom
10:30:03boom I want to rearrange the columns
10:30:05that's what I want to
10:30:08do but
10:30:11um it doesn't matter that much well I'm
10:30:14just going to do it because then we'll
10:30:16be able to read it better let's do it
10:30:18real
10:30:19quick put the
10:30:22date the time column as index
10:30:30please okay so while that happens we
10:30:34know this is true
10:30:50open interest
10:31:16here wait I'm not even using the
10:31:21uh that's
10:31:25funny I'm not even using the uh web
10:31:29stream or
10:31:30whatever so maybe they do allow it now
10:31:34at least for open
10:31:36interest wait I knew I wasn't doing that
10:31:39duh cuz they didn't have it they didn't
10:31:42have
10:31:45it but it just didn't stop me
10:31:48I'm not I'm not on the
10:31:50V or the P or the
10:32:04N okay let's see if she finish
10:32:09that Resort these columns
10:32:12please all right save let's end it peace
10:32:17all right peace peace peace peace peace
10:32:19peace peace peace and love peace and
10:32:21love to
10:32:22everybody so much love
10:32:26777 all right let's go ahead here and
10:32:28see is she not going to write it for us
10:32:30anymore oh she got rid of our print huh
10:32:33she's getting fany on us okay well that
10:32:37looks
10:32:44good what are we doing with this
10:32:46information though
10:32:48that's the
10:32:51question so that's going to update every
10:33:02minute but in
10:33:04reality we just need to fetch open
10:33:06interest
10:33:08dog I'm just going to put this in my
10:33:10yeah
10:33:12duh I'm just going to put this in my no
10:33:15no no that's not even over there that's
10:33:16the wrong place that's the wrong
10:33:18Place thinking in two places right now
10:33:20I'm thinking in two places it's not
10:33:22going to
10:33:23work but I am going to just do
10:33:37this I don't know I kind of like I kind
10:33:40of like
10:33:45it I kind of like seeing it visually
10:33:49but I got so much on my screen now that
10:33:50it's like it's too much something's got
10:33:53to
10:33:55go so what I'm saying is I can just call
10:33:59this
10:34:04function you
10:34:07know and this function fetches open
10:34:14interest yo it deleted my returns
10:34:32Stu don't delete that b let's go ahead
10:34:35and see what's going on over here I know
10:34:37we just asked a bunch of questions about
10:34:39sure let's walk through these Concepts
10:34:40step by step using trading Bots and a
10:34:42fun Lego example conditional probability
10:34:44and Bas theorem with Lego scenario
10:34:47imagine a Lego trading bot that predicts
10:34:49the success of building a Lego structure
10:34:51based on the type of pieces used the bot
10:34:55uses data on the probability of success
10:34:57given the presence of specific pieces
10:35:01step one conditional probability
10:35:04definition conditional probability is
10:35:06the probability of an event occurring
10:35:08given that another event has already
10:35:10occurred is written p a of B which reads
10:35:15probability a given B
10:35:18example let's say your trading bot has
10:35:20some data showing that the probability
10:35:24of successful build successfully
10:35:26building a
10:35:28Lego castle event a given that you have
10:35:32a Lego Arc pieces event B is 80% so P
10:35:37success Arc pieces 80 uh step two base
10:35:42theorem we'll go back we'll be back in a
10:35:44second maybe maybe maybe not
10:35:48maybe maybe
10:35:49not it's thundering out there so you
10:35:52never know you never know if you're
10:35:54going
10:35:55to get cut off here
10:35:58because that is um that's how it
10:36:02goes that's how it
10:36:07goes okay it's unfortunately it took out
10:36:11those
10:36:13Prince the um I'm gonna do this return
10:36:17return
10:36:26these keep this be
10:36:56base theorem definition base theorem
10:36:58helps us calculate the reverse
10:36:59conditional probability it's written as
10:37:01this this is BAS
10:37:13theorem let's see it let's see it Dan D
10:37:17for me dance for
10:37:26me total open interest is
10:37:30Boom there we go
10:37:339.9 looks right to
10:37:41me okay how do we use this though well
10:37:45I'm actually just going to do this here
10:37:46I'm going delete this
10:37:50delete because realistically we just
10:37:52need that we need that functionality
10:37:54right
10:37:55here launch it and then we're going to
10:37:58go to a combo here we're going to do a
10:38:00combo double up and we're going to say
10:38:05um import or from or import
10:38:13from from open
10:38:21interest for get open interest yeah yeah
10:38:25and then I'm going to say get open
10:38:26interest
10:38:28here and
10:38:33um I don't
10:38:36know what
10:38:38else get open
10:38:42interest open interest equals get open
10:38:44interest okay and then let's print
10:38:52time do sleep so this is over in our
10:38:55liquidation bot this this guy right
10:38:58here time. sleep
10:39:18okay well maybe I just didn't it's not
10:39:21called that I don't know it's fetch
10:39:25B open interest um where were we before
10:39:29lick Loop recent recent uh lick
10:39:35Loop that makes more sense doer okay
10:39:39let's run it back it's why it was white
10:39:42instead of
10:39:43yellow show me the open interest what I
10:39:45got in there okay
10:39:50sick
10:39:54um so it's a DF yeah I'm just I'm being
10:39:58silly what am I doing just go look
10:40:00yourself dog sometimes I I pretend like
10:40:03I don't know how to code a little bit I
10:40:05know a little bit all I have to do is
10:40:07copy this over and put it in the recent
10:40:10lcks nope wrong file just paste it right
10:40:14there
10:40:15dude DF and then now I can
10:40:18say
10:40:19R yeah do that do that and then I'm
10:40:22going to remove it from here the open
10:40:24interest I don't want any of that
10:40:26anymore I want it to be just totally
10:40:29hidden secret silence moving in silence
10:40:34like a
10:40:35g let's go ahead here and run it recent
10:40:41licks
10:40:42Yes actually don't want recent licks
10:40:45anymore this is the lick Loop
10:40:48okay and it's going to show me how many
10:40:50licks there are first it should at
10:40:57least um I don't want that DF I don't
10:41:00want that DF at
10:41:01all see where it's
10:41:04that keep your eyes
10:41:07tight there it
10:41:09is found you don't want you anymore get
10:41:13them out of here
10:41:26okay total open interest is that
10:41:29[Music]
10:41:42nice so let's look at our read me
10:41:45because there's
10:41:47actually no let's look at our
10:41:49brainstorms funding rates open interest
10:41:52and funding rates okay so I want to get
10:41:55this
10:42:00um funding rate
10:42:12no let's call this funding
10:42:19api. py because I would like to try the
10:42:22funding rate with just a regular API
10:42:25call then
10:42:28because you know it doesn't need to be
10:42:30that fast I don't think so maybe K
10:42:36us okay
10:42:39um let's go over here to open interest
10:42:43and buy open interest we can actually
10:42:44find the funding rate as well get funing
10:42:47rate history get funing rate info
10:42:54okay here's how to get the funding rate
10:42:57here
10:43:00on below is how to get the funding rate
10:43:11data through an API
10:43:15call instead of a web
10:43:20socket please do it this
10:43:25way and output the
10:43:29full full
10:43:33code I mean I guess that's four calls
10:43:42though no I think what we got is
10:43:46Gucci um wait do we need Super Speed on
10:43:49this let's just have it let's get it
10:43:51just in
10:43:52case U and think it
10:44:02through this would be nice because then
10:44:04we wouldn't have to have the web sockets
10:44:07open I can drop with and BNB
10:44:17that's it
10:44:19though my
10:44:21thoughts those are my thoughts B those
10:44:24are my thoughts fetch funding rates okay
10:44:48run
10:44:55it show me
10:44:58something
10:45:01please come on
10:45:03dude what you got you printing anything
10:45:06you probably had no prints in here
10:45:08huh
10:45:12sheesh
10:45:15me oh there it is
10:45:18BTC funding
10:45:21rate this is slow as molasses though so
10:45:26I can't do it I can't do this this ain't
10:45:28going to be it no way that just took
10:45:30forever okay so we're just going to run
10:45:33it I'm just going to have the web socket
10:45:48yeah that's going to take too long dog
10:45:49so I'm just going to delete this file
10:45:52here delete
10:45:55it all right this is just going to run
10:45:57somewhere and where is that going to be
10:45:59I don't
10:46:00know um copy path I need to set this all
10:46:03over my server because that's the only
10:46:05way this is going to be Gucci if you ask
10:46:08me because then it's running forever
10:46:11forever ever forever for forever forever
10:46:15ever yeah yes forever
10:46:19ever till this stuff goes
10:46:22down cond activate cond activate
10:46:26activate T flow okay
10:46:29python paste it run
10:46:31it run
10:46:41it okay what
10:46:45happened data fun
10:46:49copy relative
10:46:57path is that
10:47:07different what do you mean dog
10:47:34maybe I'm running the wrong thing yeah
10:47:36I'm running the wrong thing that's why
10:47:40I'm trying to run this same I don't know
10:47:42we'll see copy path
10:47:52there we go so I think I was running the
10:47:53wrong file so here we
10:48:05go she going to stay up to date that's
10:48:08nice okay so um what do I want to do
10:48:14here I only need the
10:48:19BTC
10:48:23eth whatever I'll keep this this is fine
10:48:25for
10:48:28now and
10:49:08I'm just going to grab for symbol where
10:49:10it's funing right grab the yearly funing
10:49:12right
10:49:17so in the recent lick Loop um let's
10:49:23say grab
10:49:26where it says
10:49:31BTC um recent LS
10:49:35funding. CSV
10:49:40btz or
10:49:42E and in the symbol
10:49:47and get
10:49:49the funding
10:49:55right I don't want the sum
10:50:02though
10:50:06funding thank you thank you
10:50:18okay there we go so that's what we
10:50:20wanted I just need those two numbers
10:50:22here and it should be getting the last
10:50:25value of
10:50:26it or any value actually because there's
10:50:29only going to be one value this is the
10:50:31funding rate it's constantly going now I
10:50:34don't know where it's going oh it's
10:50:36going right
10:50:39here
10:50:43yeah it's going right there and that's
10:50:46sick because now we have everything we
10:50:48want to
10:50:49build and I've shown you everything here
10:50:53shown you everything how is this
10:50:55everything well when I go here let's see
10:50:57if it actually works before I before I
10:50:59say
10:51:00anything we've worked through this
10:51:02together from this from the idea portion
10:51:04of this like before idea come into life
10:51:09remember all right
10:51:11so not quite there yet but data DF it's
10:51:16actually in the
10:51:24DF in my opinion but we'll
10:51:27see maybe it's already knows string
10:51:36contain okay yearly funding rate doesn't
10:51:39have a yearly funding rate what do you
10:51:45mean I'm just gonna say
10:51:49this because I'm not gonna do stuff out
10:51:53of my pay grade you know AI That's What
10:51:55You Get Paid $20 a month for well worth
10:52:00it oh man so the error you're encounter
10:52:03is due to the attempt to access the data
10:52:06using string indices which is not valid
10:52:08instead you should use you should work
10:52:10with the DF yeah I was thinking that too
10:52:12dude so we're thinking the same thing I
10:52:15just didn't implement correctly that's
10:52:17okay um I show all this how to get up to
10:52:20speed with me in the boot camp I know
10:52:21today has been me like building building
10:52:23building we went from all the way here
10:52:27so you know the RBI process is this is
10:52:29what I follow I research strategies or
10:52:31Alpha generation techniques and I back
10:52:33test them with good data and I Implement
10:52:35into a trading bot so this training
10:52:38we've gone and re re research the
10:52:41strategies inside of my ideas uh inside
10:52:44of my notes so um
10:52:46yeah study for Alpha Man
10:52:49books
10:52:52YouTube and successfully we got all the
10:52:55data source set up and it's super stable
10:52:58now well let's go ahead and maybe give
10:53:00it a couple stability tests here uh this
10:53:03is what happened before and that's not
10:53:04not stable at all um I want to see what
10:53:07happens when I turn off my internet but
10:53:09the problem with that is if I turn off
10:53:11my internet then you get turned off
10:53:13too dude so I'm not going to going to do
10:53:17that um maybe I'll make it a little
10:53:19choppy and see what
10:53:21happens uh if this can keep these going
10:53:24nicely it's looks like everything is
10:53:26still flying in
10:53:35here
10:53:371638 that's right
10:53:39[Music]
10:53:42now okay so we went all the way from
10:53:45idea generation we had so many ideas
10:53:48that we were going over and we have a
10:53:50ton that we can keep coming back to so
10:53:53I'm just going to keep coming back to
10:53:54this note sheet because we have so many
10:53:57projects ahead of us and I don't feel
10:54:00quite done with this liquidation one uh
10:54:03I feel like we got the data we needed to
10:54:05to let you fly I've given you everything
10:54:09you need in order to now bring your
10:54:11ideas to life again my ideas are just a
10:54:14small small fraction small small
10:54:17fraction and they're not even correct
10:54:18it's just an idea so at this point now
10:54:22that we have all this information my
10:54:24plan from here is to we already built
10:54:26the stat
10:54:28arbot we already built that it's already
10:54:30been built it's here on if you just go
10:54:33to YouTube somewhere we already built it
10:54:35so I'm just going to have this now say
10:54:38I'm going test different
10:54:40things I'm going to test different
10:54:41things and these different things are
10:54:43going to be things like this that I'm
10:54:46going to return right here actually time
10:54:49frame and time frame I want to return
10:54:55the every everything that we need so the
10:55:0015 minute
10:55:06liquidations totals DF Maybe
10:55:09[Music]
10:55:16this is just printing so that's
10:55:20nothing I want to say I want to return
10:55:23the total
10:55:26liquidations total
10:55:33licks long licks short licks what else
10:55:37eth funding BTC
10:55:39funding what
10:55:41else DF sure but what else B
10:55:46data what it come on
10:55:51cuz
10:55:57oh open
10:56:04interest total open interest is this
10:56:07okay so that's my judge of open interest
10:56:11at least so is what it is um now I have
10:56:16I've why you all the way here
10:56:18dude this is this is as far as I can
10:56:21take you because everything else is
10:56:23built I built everything else here on
10:56:26the YouTube look look look just go to
10:56:28YouTube here and type in uh moev and
10:56:32then go to the video section and then go
10:56:36find the stat AR
10:56:39statistical there's a bunch of
10:56:41videos statistical r
10:56:47yeah yeah part four yep so there's like
10:56:51a bunch of parts to it but oppos to me
10:56:53just saying here um showing you that
10:56:56like trying to like do a tutorial or
10:56:58something I'm not going to do that but
10:57:01um I'll definitely cover everything we
10:57:03covered today here on
10:57:05Friday and um maybe I should make a note
10:57:08of that so today we did the liquidation
10:57:12bot strategy books brainstorming
10:57:18liquidation bot is
10:57:20now the data that we need is now here
10:57:24now it's just how are we going to
10:57:25implement it so I'm going leave you at
10:57:27that
10:57:29point because there's plenty of examples
10:57:32I'm thinking this
10:57:37and I got to figure out how to turn that
10:57:39on and off so maybe I'll do a part two
10:57:41to this I don't know also want to do
10:57:43back testing on this liquidation data so
10:57:45I've got to get this set up on my
10:57:49server get
10:57:51set up on
10:57:55server so it
10:57:58runs 247 I'm just going to do that right
10:58:00now because why wouldn't I why wouldn't
10:58:03I okay
10:58:06so let's think about
10:58:08this
10:58:13um 41
10:58:18I want
10:58:19to throw off my internet real quick so I
10:58:22might lose you here but that's the case
10:58:25I'll see you see you next time but uh I
10:58:28just need to see the stability because
10:58:30when I switch to a VPN that's when it it
10:58:32really breaks
10:58:38this okay I'm over there now I'm G let
10:58:41the the everything reconnect here so we
10:58:44don't lose the whole stream I stream
10:58:46every day it's just every time I'm
10:58:49coding I just put the mic on that's
10:58:53it that's it I'm not your Guru sorry
10:58:59bro sorry
10:59:02buddy I'm just here coding okay
10:59:19unfortunately let's go ahead and switch
10:59:21back
11:00:00okay well I guess the good thing the bad
11:00:03news good news and bad
11:00:05news the bad news let's get that out the
11:00:07way first is this doesn't seem to
11:00:10reconnect
11:00:18so that's the bad
11:00:25news the good news is it shouldn't
11:00:28drop on my server
11:00:35because because it's uh not changing
11:00:38internets but we'll
11:00:40see let's go ahead here and say big
11:00:42licks
11:00:44okay nope that's all our
11:00:47studies p
11:00:49i I get the error above when I'm running
11:00:56the below
11:00:59code I need it to be able to
11:01:03reboot
11:01:05itself without human
11:01:10intervention and right now it's not able
11:01:14to do that
11:01:16okay so let me go ahead here
11:01:19and where is that code
11:01:42at I believe that is going to be under
11:01:45Jupiter trading
11:01:49Bots and that licks big
11:01:52here
11:01:58copy let's see if they can update
11:02:03it while it does that I think I'm going
11:02:05to go ahead
11:02:08and well let's get this better let's see
11:02:10if we can fix it first before I try to
11:02:12set it up on my server regardless I
11:02:15think
11:02:16we're good because my server shouldn't
11:02:19drop the
11:02:26connection but I'm not
11:02:28certain
11:02:33so we'll
11:02:42see all right let's do the same thing
11:02:45might lose you again sorry but it is
11:02:47what it
11:02:48is okay I'm going to turn my VPN on
11:02:52changing if we see the Reds again then
11:02:54we know it's over
11:02:59over I'm on the V now
11:03:17okay well I
11:03:19mean I don't see that air do
11:03:23you I do not let's go ahead here
11:03:28and close this bad
11:03:31boy please do the same
11:03:38thing please make the same updates for
11:03:44this
11:03:47all right so oh it no
11:03:59sent never
11:04:02mind your changes didn't
11:04:11work player didn't work player
11:04:15so you better
11:04:17relax I apologize for the inconvenience
11:04:20let's ensure the code can handle
11:04:22unexpected Connection close yours more
11:04:25robustly yes
11:04:27please yes please
11:04:48I guess I'll stay connected and then
11:04:49I'll
11:04:53disconnect because I know this probably
11:04:55dropping the stream or whatever but I'm
11:04:57sorry gotta do what you got to do you
11:05:00know do you know how it
11:05:02is so I'm glad you're
11:05:06here all right so I'm connected I
11:05:10believe so now I'm going to jump off 1 2
11:05:133 4 5 I'm going jump off off the uh good
11:05:17off
11:05:21V see if it turns to Red now if it does
11:05:24then I'm going try it out on my server
11:05:27but I've shown you everything I can show
11:05:30you showed you everything you need
11:05:33dude everything you need when it comes
11:05:36to
11:05:39liquidations we built this out all here
11:05:44together and we'll continue to build as
11:05:47long as you continue to show up
11:05:50dude you show up I show up that's it
11:05:54777 so much love to
11:05:57you so so much love all right this one's
11:06:00looking a little more stable so let me
11:06:03go ahead and I'm going jump back in to
11:06:08the V and see oh no look at
11:06:13that see if it gets it gets off it it
11:06:17gets stuck
11:06:20here
11:06:23still it gets
11:06:26stuck when I switch to a VPN
11:07:10look how this one picks it up you see
11:07:11how it reconnects that's nice
11:07:23could be using the wrong file too to be
11:07:25real to be real with you
11:07:46licks big I'm just going to double check
11:07:49here copy
11:07:53path yeah that was
11:07:59it okay
11:08:02so
11:08:05connected we'll figure this out over
11:08:07time showing you all the functionality
11:08:09you need though so you're Gucci you're
11:08:13excused it's a good day it was a really
11:08:15good day appreciate you being here 777
11:08:19so much love to you I know you've been
11:08:21here for a long time so you're excused
11:08:24now if you want to learn more here you
11:08:26can join the boot camp the boot camp
11:08:28shows you step by step how to automate
11:08:30your trading in more short concise
11:08:32videos uh today and every day I'm really
11:08:35just working here on YouTube not really
11:08:37trying to be a YouTuber so I'm going to
11:08:39continue to just kind of work here on
11:08:42the tube
11:08:43and show you what I'm working on and I
11:08:47will explain it as I go
11:08:50through as best as I can but sometimes I
11:08:53can't explain it because I don't
11:08:55understand it so I learn it here kind of
11:08:58like we're going through here with uh
11:09:01gbt a little statistics here
11:09:10probability okay so I just jumped off
11:09:13and it's still alive which is nice to
11:09:15let's
11:09:19see connected to okay well I'm going to
11:09:23go ahead and jump back
11:09:28on here we go let's go ahead and see it
11:09:33come on show us
11:09:34[Music]
11:09:36something in the meantime oh there we
11:09:40go there we
11:09:43go there we go good good
11:09:46job okay so this is the updated code
11:09:48just make sure you have all of
11:09:54it to get the liquidations just take a
11:09:56screenshot real quick
11:09:59because I a got time for all
11:10:03that one two
11:10:05three one two three one two three okay
11:10:09you're Gucci right cool let's go ahead
11:10:12and copy this no actually I want the
11:10:15regular licks
11:10:21here nice that
11:10:25worked
11:10:26whatever you did to
11:10:31reconnect please do it below as
11:10:39well this is a
11:10:41different
11:10:43function function
11:10:58I don't know why you giving me such big
11:11:01small liquidations but it's a whole
11:11:03another
11:11:14topic e
11:11:53just putting the old one back in there I
11:11:55don't know what she was
11:11:57thinking she crazy sometimes
11:12:00dog she's
11:12:02crazy she crazy
11:12:07dog all right so let's make sure you get
11:12:09all this code as well because I want to
11:12:11make sure you leave with
11:12:13everything much love to you
11:12:16777 appreciate you showing up doing the
11:12:19work here I'm going to screenshot it
11:12:21simulate web socket break holy
11:12:37smokes so here's the screenshots one two
11:12:423 one two
11:12:46three
11:12:52three two
11:12:55EG that's all I got it's all I got for
11:12:59you let's see if this runs so before I B
11:13:02ounce good to have you so much love so
11:13:05much love always every day every day to
11:13:08you
11:13:09dude let's go ahead and say licks big
11:13:11should be running um fine this is the
11:13:15other one here and now we shouldn't have
11:13:20errors that's amazing so now we're
11:13:23riding off into the sunset we have
11:13:27everything we need here and you can take
11:13:29it whichever way you want to go please
11:13:31do keep me in mind think about me get in
11:13:36the Discord say hello say hey Mev this
11:13:39is what I'm working on thanks for the
11:13:41yada yada whatever I gave you today I
11:13:44try to give you all every every single
11:13:46day and everything I know you know we're
11:13:50going to keep studying this book just
11:13:51for the last few minutes here
11:13:54because we were just about to finish
11:13:57this so example your trading bot knows
11:13:59if a Lego Lego structure is successfully
11:14:02built there's a 70% chance that art Arch
11:14:06pieces were used the overall probability
11:14:08of successfully building any Lego
11:14:10structure is 40% and the probability of
11:14:12using Arch pieces is 50% so T of arch
11:14:15pieces um 70 P of success 40 P Arch
11:14:20pieces 50 so one more here walk through
11:14:23the math to find the probability of
11:14:25successfully building a logo a Lego
11:14:28castle given that Arch pieces were used
11:14:31we use bige theorem P of success Arch
11:14:35pieces so this is base theorem here
11:14:38again plugging in the values okay P
11:14:40success Arch pieces plug them in solving
11:14:43for the likelihood the likelihood
11:14:45something happen is another way to
11:14:46express the conditional probability in
11:14:48our example the likelihood of using Arch
11:14:51pieces given that a Lego structure is
11:14:53successfully built is p Arch pieces
11:14:56success so normalizing the data
11:14:59normalization involves adjusting values
11:15:02measured on different scales to a common
11:15:05scale in the context of probabilities
11:15:08normalization ensures that the sum of
11:15:10all probabilities in a standard
11:15:12distribution equals one example if we
11:15:14consider consider multiple factors
11:15:16affecting the success of building a Lego
11:15:19structure EG the arch pieces um roof
11:15:23pieces window
11:15:24pieces we might have initial initial
11:15:28unnormalized probabilities we normalize
11:15:30them by dividing each by the total sum
11:15:33six likelihood of alternative hypothesis
11:15:36prior and posterior prior probability
11:15:40the initial probability of an event
11:15:42before considering the new data
11:15:44posterior probability the updated
11:15:46probability of an event after
11:15:48considering new data example prior the
11:15:50probability of successfully building a
11:15:52Lego structure without considering
11:15:56specific pieces is 40% likelihood the
11:15:59probability of using Arch pieces given
11:16:02that the structure is successful is 70%
11:16:05posterior the updated probability of
11:16:08success given that Arch pieces are used
11:16:12calculated
11:16:15using base theorem is
11:16:1756% step seven comparing unnormalized
11:16:19posteriors unnormalized posteriors are
11:16:22the raw probabilities before
11:16:24normalization comparing these helps
11:16:27understand the relative likelihood of
11:16:29different hypothesis before they are
11:16:32scaled to some to one example suppose we
11:16:36have two types of pieces Arch and roof
11:16:38and their respective likelihoods are
11:16:40prior as Arch
11:16:41roof 7.4 28
11:16:45roof pieces success roof pieces 6.35 21
11:16:50comparing these unnormalized posteriors
11:16:52show that Arch pieces have a higher
11:16:54likelihood of leading to success
11:16:57compared to roof pieces summary of
11:16:59Concepts conditional probability the
11:17:01probability of an event given another
11:17:03event has occurred Bas theorem a method
11:17:05to calculate reverse conditional
11:17:07probabilties likelihood the probability
11:17:09of observing the data given of
11:17:11hypothesis
11:17:12normalization adjusting probability to
11:17:15the sum of one prior probability initial
11:17:17probability before new data posterior
11:17:20probability updated probability after
11:17:22considering new data unnormalized
11:17:24posteriors raw probabilities before
11:17:27normalization useful for comparison
11:17:30recap with trading Bots conditional
11:17:31probability your Bot considers the
11:17:33likelihood of success given specific
11:17:36indicators based theorem your Bot
11:17:38updates probabilities based on new
11:17:40trading data likelihood your Bot
11:17:42evaluates the probability of seeing
11:17:44certain market conditions normalization
11:17:46your Bot ensures all considered
11:17:49probabilities some to one prior and
11:17:51posterior your Bot starts with initial
11:17:55probabilities and updates them with new
11:17:58information unnormalized posteriors your
11:18:01Bot Compares raw probabilities to decide
11:18:04on the best trading strategy

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