How the GOP Civil War is Shaking Out — Transcript

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1. 0:00The Grand Old Party has a pretty grand
2. 0:02problem. How to handle losing and losing
3. 0:06badly. Republicans are reeling after a
4. 0:08total wipeout in the 2026 midterm
5. 0:11elections. Having lost both chambers of
6. 0:13Congress along with a litany of
7. 0:15statewide elections from Maine to Texas,
8. 0:18Republicans are asking what political
9. 0:20solutions could avert another electoral
10. 0:22cataclysm come the 2028 presidential
11. 0:25election. As the final votes are counted
12. 0:27and the losses continue to roll in, the
13. 0:30knives are coming out and 2028
14. 0:32contenders are starting to jockey for
15. 0:34their place at the head of a postTrump
16. 0:37GOP. So, in this video, we're going to
17. 0:39examine how Republicans crushing midterm
18. 0:41defeat has sparked a political blame
19. 0:43game, exposing deepening divisions over
20. 0:46the Iran war within the Trump
21. 0:47administration as Vice President JD
22. 0:49Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio,
23. 0:52and the Republicans outside of the
24. 0:53administration begin positioning
25. 0:55themselves to the 2028 presidential race
26. 0:58and the battle over the party's future.
27. 1:07Get our comprehensive midterm analysis
28. 1:09exclusively inside the latest issue of
29. 1:11Too Long, where you'll find all of the
30. 1:13data across eight pages, as well as our
31. 1:15rundown of all of the other major
32. 1:17elections that happened this year. Find
33. 1:19out more at the end of the video or by
34. 1:20clicking the link in the description. To
35. 1:22avoid recapping previous videos on the
36. 1:24topic, it suffices to say that the
37. 1:25Republicans essentially lost ground
38. 1:27among every voting group in the nation.
39. 1:29With the country shifting 15 points
40. 1:31towards the Democrats overall, according
41. 1:33to elections data from the New York
42. 1:34Times, Republicans suffered their
43. 1:36steepest losses among Hispanic voters
44. 1:39and voters under 30, who swung 29 and 33
45. 1:43points towards the Democrats,
46. 1:44respectively, compared with 2024. These
47. 1:47shifts cost Republicans key voting
48. 1:49blocks that were instrumental in
49. 1:50propelling Trump back to the White House
50. 1:52in 2024. Now, Republicans are left
51. 1:55wondering what made these voters leave
52. 1:57and how they can be won back. Not even
53. 2:0024 hours after the election, Vice
54. 2:01President JD Vance sparked controversy
55. 2:03within the Republican party by offering
56. 2:05his diagnosis for why the GOP lost. In a
57. 2:08post on X, the vice president honed in
58. 2:10on one primary reason, the effects of
59. 2:12the Iran war. Vance's post goes on to
60. 2:15say that in his view, many swing voters
61. 2:17would prefer to end the war in Iran,
62. 2:19focus on the cost of living and
63. 2:21inflation, put America first, and change
64. 2:23our relationship with Israel. Amid
65. 2:26reports that Vance did not review his
66. 2:27statement with the White House before
67. 2:29posting it, Vance insisted that his
68. 2:31analysis is in line with President
69. 2:32Trump's election night view that Iran
70. 2:35was a piece of the midterm loss.
71. 2:37However, their recent statements expose
72. 2:39a clear division at the very top of the
73. 2:41Trump administration. While Trump
74. 2:42acknowledges the Iran War's role in the
75. 2:44electoral defeat, he defends it
76. 2:46nonetheless as necessary, insisting, "I
77. 2:49did the right thing. I would have done
78. 2:51it again." These sentiments seem set to
79. 2:54clash as Trump reportedly considers
80. 2:56renewed strikes on Iran in the weeks
81. 2:58following the midterms, while Vance
82. 3:00seeks to court anti-war Republicans and
83. 3:02independents who abandoned the party in
84. 3:052026. This bit of political analysis by
85. 3:08the vice president sparked constonnation
86. 3:09across conservative media with some
87. 3:12commentators like the Washington Post
88. 3:14columnist Mark Tissson accusing Vance of
89. 3:16being disloyal to the president and his
90. 3:18Iran policy. Vance blaming the midterm
91. 3:21defeat on the Iran war and America's
92. 3:23relationship with Israel has angered
93. 3:25many of the more hawkish neoonservative
94. 3:27Republicans, including people like Ben
95. 3:30Shapiro. These neocons generally
96. 3:32acknowledge that the Iran war and
97. 3:33resulting surge in gas prices is the
98. 3:36reason for the party's electoral defeat,
99. 3:38but place much of the blame on Vance and
100. 3:40his June 17th memorandum of
101. 3:42understanding with Iran that as they see
102. 3:45it needlessly extended the conflict
103. 3:47through months of intermittent fighting
104. 3:49in the straight of neoonservatives. The
105. 3:52public backlash from the Iran war is not
106. 3:54the result of its initiation, but its
107. 3:57execution and prolonged duration with
108. 3:59intermittent ceasefires unnecessarily
109. 4:01extending disruptions to oil markets and
110. 4:04raising costs for American consumers.
111. 4:06With neoonservative discontent spreading
112. 4:08across conservative media, some have
113. 4:11speculated that the midterm defeat could
114. 4:13prompt Secretary of State Marco Rubio,
115. 4:15who's more closely aligned with the
116. 4:17party's neocon wing, to resign and
117. 4:19launch a 2028 presidential bid. Even as
118. 4:22Rubio has denied those reports, the
119. 4:24speculation underscores the extent to
120. 4:26which disagreements over the Iran war
121. 4:28are defining the Republican party's
122. 4:30emerging 2028 leadership contest. The
123. 4:33electoral difficulty for both the Rubio
124. 4:35and Vance aligned factions is that
125. 4:37neither can easily distance itself from
126. 4:39the war's consequences. Neoconom
127. 4:41Republicans were among the strongest
128. 4:42advocates for initiating the conflict
129. 4:44and trumpeting its early military
130. 4:46successes. While Vance became the public
131. 4:48face of a diplomatic approach that
132. 4:50culminated in a 60-day pause in
133. 4:53hostilities that delayed further
134. 4:55confrontation without securing a lasting
135. 4:57resolution in the months leading up to
136. 4:59the midterms. Both factions, therefore,
137. 5:01will likely bear some political
138. 5:03responsibility for the economic
139. 5:04disruption that they agree caused the
140. 5:06Republican party's midterm defeat. As
141. 5:08the party looks towards 2028, this
142. 5:10shared responsibility presents a
143. 5:12significant political challenge. Neither
144. 5:14faction can fully explain what went
145. 5:16wrong without confronting its own role
146. 5:18in producing the outcome voters
147. 5:20rejected, creating an uncomfortable
148. 5:22political environment for the potential
149. 5:24presidential contenders serving in the
150. 5:26Trump administration. Fingerpointing for
151. 5:28the midterm loss also goes beyond the
152. 5:30existing squabble between Vice President
153. 5:33Vance and the Trump administration's
154. 5:35hawkish elements. Other likely 2028
155. 5:37hopefuls have jumped into the fray,
156. 5:39including perhaps most notably outgoing
157. 5:41Florida Governor Ronda Santis, who
158. 5:43slammed Republicans in Congress for the
159. 5:45loss and acknowledged that this midterm,
160. 5:47no question, was a rebuke of the
161. 5:50president and the Congress by Democrats,
162. 5:52independents, and some Republicans. In
163. 5:55the immediate aftermath of the election,
164. 5:56Dantis placed blame squarely on
165. 5:59Republicans in Washington writ large,
166. 6:01arguing that the party had failed to
167. 6:02make sufficient use of the governing
168. 6:04majority it won in 2024, leaving voters
169. 6:07frustrated by unfulfilled promises. For
170. 6:10context, Dantis has long walked a fine
171. 6:12line between MAGA loyalist and
172. 6:14independent conservative leader. First
173. 6:16elected governor in 2018 as a heavily
174. 6:18proTrump candidate, DS Santis
175. 6:20subsequently established his own
176. 6:21political identity through his
177. 6:22opposition to CO 19 restrictions,
178. 6:24sweeping expansion of school choice, and
179. 6:27aggressive conservative policies on
180. 6:28LGBTQ plus issues in schools. Dantis is
181. 6:32poised to offer himself in 2028 as a
182. 6:34Republican alternative free from much of
183. 6:36the baggage that has now come with
184. 6:38serving in the Trump administration.
185. 6:40That separation, combined with his
186. 6:42record as governor, could allow Dantis
187. 6:44to shift the party's focus away from the
188. 6:46foreign policy disputes surrounding
189. 6:47Israel and Iran and toward domestic
190. 6:50affordability issues, distinguishing
191. 6:52himself from contenders more closely
192. 6:54associated with the administration's
193. 6:55handling of the war. The bottom line
194. 6:57here is that Republicans are searching
195. 6:59for someone to blame for their midterm
196. 7:01defeat, and there's plenty of blame to
197. 7:03go around. The Iran war has sharpened
198. 7:06tensions between Trump and Vance and
199. 7:08widened the divide between Vance's most
200. 7:10isolationist allies and Marco Rubio's
201. 7:13hawkish wing. Trump's reported
202. 7:15consideration of renewed strikes on Iran
203. 7:17could deepen that rift, forcing
204. 7:19potential 2028 contenders within the
205. 7:21administration to defend or distance
206. 7:24themselves from another escalation.
207. 7:26Meanwhile, outsiders like Ronda Santz
208. 7:28are using this defeat to make the case
209. 7:30for a leadership unbburdened by
210. 7:32Washington's decisions. As Republicans
211. 7:35search for a successor capable of
212. 7:36keeping the White House, the
213. 7:38recriminations are unlikely to end
214. 7:40anytime soon. Exciting announcement. I'm
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222. 7:56points towards total dominance. Yet,
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231. 8:16fact, and I know you love it when I say
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233. 8:18>> your talk of our longest issue ever is
234. 8:21so repetitive.
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