How Sweden is readying for a potential war with Russia | The Security Brief — Transcript

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1. 0:00Sweden gave up 200 years of neutrality
2. 0:03to join NATO. And unlike much of the
3. 0:05alliance, it is now moving at speed to
4. 0:07match the threat it believes Russia
5. 0:09presents. Defense spending has hit 2.8%
6. 0:13of GDP this year. It will be at 3.1% by
7. 0:172028. But Sweden isn't just spending,
8. 0:20it's mobilizing. Every citizen between
9. 0:2316 and 70 is now legally required to
10. 0:26serve in war or crisis. A posture most
11. 0:29NATO members can only talk about. In
12. 0:31May, Stockholm signed a $4 billion deal
13. 0:34with France's Naval Group for four new
14. 0:36frigates, tripling its naval air defense
15. 0:38capacity. And it needs it because Sweden
16. 0:41sits on NATO's new front line. Joining
17. 0:44us from the NATO leaders summit in
18. 0:46Ankara is the Swedish Prime Minister,
19. 0:48Ulf Kristersson. Welcome to the Security
20. 0:50Brief.
21. 0:53Can we talk about
22. 0:54>> about defense spending? 2.8 by 2026, 3.1
23. 0:58by 2028.
24. 1:00Uh, that's pretty impressive compared to
25. 1:02the rest, but is 5% of GDP realistic?
26. 1:07>> Yeah, it is. We have made the
27. 1:10the decisions already to to reach to the
28. 1:125%. That means 3.5%
29. 1:15and plus the 1.5% in a kind of a broader
30. 1:18security
31. 1:20investments by 2030.
32. 1:23That's even 5 years ahead of the
33. 1:26requirements or ahead of the agreement
34. 1:28we made last year in The Hague. So, I
35. 1:30think it's very possible and very
36. 1:32necessary.
37. 1:34>> Prime Minister, it's Mark here. I I want
38. 1:35to talk about Sweden's contribution to
39. 1:38the prioritized Ukraine requirements
40. 1:40list, the Pearl. Uh, you've paid in over
41. 1:43400 million since Pearl started. And
42. 1:46yet, 1,800 PAC-3 Patriot uh interceptors
43. 1:49were expended in the first 16 days of
44. 1:52Operation Epic Fury.
45. 1:54So, I'm just wondering, did Europe just
46. 1:55pay for Trump's war in the Persian Gulf?
47. 1:58>> No, it did not, but it does
48. 2:01it does underline the necessity of of
49. 2:04wrapping up production capacity,
50. 2:06obviously.
51. 2:08Right now, I think most of us realize
52. 2:10that Ukraine is is in a far better
53. 2:12position than it
54. 2:14was just a few months ago.
55. 2:16Russia is obviously not winning this
56. 2:18war, but they suffer a lot from
57. 2:21long-distance attack from Russia, and
58. 2:23they need to be able to defend
59. 2:25themselves. So, so we we really need to
60. 2:28step up both in in in
61. 2:30in the
62. 2:32in the
63. 2:33in the purchasing of these of these uh
64. 2:36defensive weapons, but also in the
65. 2:38production capacity. So, there are
66. 2:40things to to deliver to to Ukraine.
67. 2:43>> Can I just push you on that, Prime
68. 2:44Minister? Is it possible to bridge the
69. 2:46gap without US manufacturers?
70. 2:51>> Well, I cannot really tell. Obviously,
71. 2:53quite a few of these weapons are US-made
72. 2:55and and right now only US-made. Uh
73. 2:58and
74. 3:00if there are possibilities to to
75. 3:01increase that production in US or
76. 3:03elsewhere,
77. 3:05that would be of great importance
78. 3:07to Ukraine.
79. 3:09Um
80. 3:10but so far we have managed to
81. 3:13slowly but surely provide Ukraine with
82. 3:16what they need, and they have been very
83. 3:18skilled in using them, and different
84. 3:21countries can
85. 3:22provide different
86. 3:25uh different equipment. Right now, we
87. 3:27are focusing on providing Ukraine with
88. 3:30increased air capacity both in the short
89. 3:33term
90. 3:34with
91. 3:35pre-used Gripen fighters, and in the
92. 3:38longer term with
93. 3:40the new generation Gripen fighters.
94. 3:43>> Prime Minister, I just want to turn to
95. 3:44Gotland, the the island south of your
96. 3:46coast, and and sort of how crucial it is
97. 3:49to NATO defense. If Russia decides to
98. 3:53test NATO
99. 3:55with a deniable gray zone incident,
100. 3:58hybrid warfare for example,
101. 4:01or we're talking about Narva in Estonia
102. 4:03or the Suwalki Gap
103. 4:05in between Lithuania and Poland,
104. 4:08would you trust Trump's America to
105. 4:09actually show up to such an incident?
106. 4:16>> I think we are all prepared for a great
107. 4:19variety of different hybrid threats from
108. 4:21Russia right now.
109. 4:24I think all the countries in Russia's
110. 4:26neighborhood is is very well aware of of
111. 4:30those risks and we are actually
112. 4:32also acting accordingly.
113. 4:35I think it's fair to say that the Baltic
114. 4:36Sea has probably never in modern times
115. 4:39been more
116. 4:40challenged and more questioned
117. 4:43than it is today. That goes I mean
118. 4:45obvious things like constant cables
119. 4:49underwater cables being destroyed and
120. 4:52the shadow fleet acting in a very in a
121. 4:55very
122. 4:56reckless way. But on the other hand the
123. 4:59Baltic Sea hasn't been as protected and
124. 5:02as surveyed as it is right now
125. 5:05underwater and in the skies and also
126. 5:08on the sea. So I think we are we are
127. 5:11acting accordingly.
128. 5:12But hybrid threats are complicated. That
129. 5:16it's almost the definition of hybrid
130. 5:17threats. You should you shouldn't really
131. 5:19know.
132. 5:20But the last years has
133. 5:23have learned have teach us taught us a
134. 5:26lot on on how to act and act
135. 5:29calm but but firmly
136. 5:33on these threats.
137. 5:35>> Another big discussion point in Ankara
138. 5:37over the next two days Prime Minister
139. 5:38will be on
140. 5:39the defense industrial base. Saab, your
141. 5:43company is the fifth largest defense
142. 5:45exporter
143. 5:46uh in Europe.
144. 5:48Why do you think 75% of Europe's money
145. 5:52for defense still goes to non-European
146. 5:54suppliers?
147. 5:56>> I'm very happy that we have a strong
148. 5:59defense industrial base in Sweden.
149. 6:01Um also very happy that it it is
150. 6:03nowadays being
151. 6:06regarded in a in a in in in a more
152. 6:08proper way. Used to be viewed by some
153. 6:12people as something, you know, not seen
154. 6:14as a sustainable investment and things
155. 6:16like that. Nowadays we realize that
156. 6:19defense industry
157. 6:21having a defense industry also means
158. 6:23increasing our chances of defending
159. 6:26democracy. So, I think we have There is
160. 6:28a We have sobered There is a sobering
161. 6:30process going on in Europe. Uh and for
162. 6:34being quite a small country, we are
163. 6:35proud of having
164. 6:37so many and so large
165. 6:39uh
166. 6:40defense companies as we have right now
167. 6:43and producing some of the world's most
168. 6:44attractive products, you know, Gripen
169. 6:46fighters and submarines and not least
170. 6:49Global Eye, very
171. 6:50very um
172. 6:53very discussed today.
173. 6:55>> I'm sure in your discussions in Ankara
174. 6:57today, you you will come across the
175. 6:59outgoing British Prime Minister, Sir
176. 7:01Keir Starmer.
177. 7:02Britain does talk a good game about
178. 7:04leading European security, but
179. 7:07the constraints on defense spending are
180. 7:09pretty obvious.
181. 7:11Do you feel that the UK needs to do
182. 7:12more?
183. 7:17>> I don't give advices to to to
184. 7:20other colleagues in in that sense. I can
185. 7:23confirm we have an extremely good
186. 7:25cooperation between Sweden and the UK in
187. 7:27in a broad variety of defense
188. 7:30uh of defense industry. BAE Systems is a
189. 7:33British company, very big, operating
190. 7:36successfully in
191. 7:38in Sweden, for example. Uh
192. 7:41but just to state the obvious, there are
193. 7:44economic restraints in many countries
194. 7:47and very many competing demands.
195. 7:50So you really have to make you have to
196. 7:52be true to yourself. If we say jointly
197. 7:56that we are going to invest 5% of GDP
198. 7:59in defense not because of American
199. 8:02rhetoric but because of
200. 8:05Russian
201. 8:07Russian behavior.
202. 8:09Then we need also to do all the
203. 8:10decisions
204. 8:12to make that possible and I'm fully
205. 8:14aware of the fact that this is
206. 8:16complicated.
207. 8:18That goes for Sweden as well.
208. 8:20But there are no real alternatives. You
209. 8:22cannot
210. 8:24talk
211. 8:26your way to to increased
212. 8:30defense
213. 8:31capabilities.
214. 8:33>> We we covered the the scenario of the of
215. 8:37the US walking out on NATO on the
216. 8:39security brief
217. 8:40about a month ago and and part of those
218. 8:42conversations and that analysis was the
219. 8:45criticality of the type of intelligence
220. 8:47that the Nordic countries including
221. 8:49Sweden including Sweden that feed the
222. 8:51US. So for example, Russian submarines
223. 8:53coming out of Murmansk. Um
224. 8:56From your perspective as the Swedish
225. 8:58Prime Minister, what would Washington
226. 9:00lose
227. 9:01out with of that analysis?
228. 9:04>> I think we have extremely good
229. 9:06cooperation
230. 9:07ongoing and on the military side, I
231. 9:10don't see any
232. 9:12big changes on that. The big shift which
233. 9:16is honestly
234. 9:18not a
235. 9:19not a new demand from the US side is
236. 9:21that Europe should increase our European
237. 9:24capacities and that is really happening
238. 9:26right now. What the Americans call NATO
239. 9:293.0.
240. 9:31This burden shifting going on.
241. 9:34But of course, I mean the world is big
242. 9:37and we have extreme good uh
243. 9:41surveillance and extreme good
244. 9:43intel regarding the Baltic Sea region
245. 9:47and we share that information to allies,
246. 9:50but we also receive important
247. 9:52information from allies
248. 9:54on parts of the world
249. 9:56which we cannot cover ourselves. So, I
250. 9:58think that intelligence community is
251. 10:00working well.
252. 10:01>> Just a a very final question for you,
253. 10:03Prime Minister. I know it's hot there in
254. 10:04Ankara, so we'll let you go in a second.
255. 10:06But, I I started the top of our
256. 10:08interview talking about the neutrality
257. 10:10you've given up, 200 years of
258. 10:12neutrality.
259. 10:14Do you ever wonder if Sweden bought
260. 10:15insurance from a company that might not
261. 10:18pay out? If Article 5 wasn't upheld,
262. 10:20what was the point in joining?
263. 10:26>> I see no reason at all to doubt the fact
264. 10:29that Article 5 is is very valid. I think
265. 10:31that is reconfirmed
266. 10:33again and again and again. Uh,
267. 10:36that's point one. Point two is that we
268. 10:39we join NATO
269. 10:40to because of the realization that we
270. 10:43need more of protection in our part of
271. 10:45the world when Russia is behaving the
272. 10:47way Russia is behaving, but we also join
273. 10:49NATO to provide security because we have
274. 10:52abilities and capabilities around the
275. 10:54Baltic Sea which are quite unique. And I
276. 10:57think it works both it works really both
277. 11:01ways. So, just have a look at the map
278. 11:03when when NATO is complete with Sweden
279. 11:06and with Finland, you can see that the
280. 11:08Baltic Sea is surrounded of NATO
281. 11:12countries.
282. 11:13That's why I can say for sure that the
283. 11:15Baltic Sea has really never been as
284. 11:17protected and as safe as it is right now
285. 11:21in a very challenging time. So, I think
286. 11:24and add to that, for me, of course,
287. 11:27the US is an important ally
288. 11:29in NATO, but for me, equally important
289. 11:32are of course
290. 11:34neighboring countries. For me, NATO is
291. 11:35also Finland, Denmark, Norway, the three
292. 11:38Baltic states, Poland, Germany, France,
293. 11:42the UK. So, we are really
294. 11:45very much integrating into the European
295. 11:47part of of NATO, and which is a part
296. 11:51that is increasingly taking
297. 11:53taking on the responsibility that Europe
298. 11:56should have been taking on since long.
299. 11:59>> critical partners, and a point that the
300. 12:01US Secretary of State made on his recent
301. 12:02visit here to Europe. Uh Swedish Prime
302. 12:04Minister Ulf Kristersson, it's very good
303. 12:06to have you on the security brief. Thank
304. 12:07you very much, and best of luck with
305. 12:09your conversations later today.
306. 12:13>> Thanks for having me. Thanks.