How ‘super’ El Niño could bring chaos to the world’s weather | BBC News — Transcript

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1. 0:00Right now, across the Pacific Ocean,
2. 0:03something is happening that could change
3. 0:05the world's weather. It's called El
4. 0:07Niño, and it's a global weather
5. 0:09phenomenon that can reshape the weather,
6. 0:11food, and temperatures worldwide.
7. 0:14Depending on where you are, it can mean
8. 0:15devastating floods, extreme droughts,
9. 0:18intense heat waves, or raging wildfires.
10. 0:21And this year, it's looking increasingly
11. 0:23likely it's going to be strong, really
12. 0:26strong. I'm Simon King, a lead weather
13. 0:28presenter and meteorologist at the BBC.
14. 0:31So, let me explain how it works and what
15. 0:33it could mean for us.
16. 0:35El Niño is a natural climate pattern
17. 0:38where the tropical Pacific Ocean warms
18. 0:40up well above normal levels. Think of
19. 0:43the Pacific like a radiator. When it's
20. 0:45turned on, the heat transfers into the
21. 0:48atmosphere, boosting the global average
22. 0:49temperature. You might have also heard
23. 0:51of La Niña, and that's the
24. 0:53cooler-than-average phase. We were just
25. 0:55in that phase last winter, but now the
26. 0:58tropical Pacific is warming up very
27. 1:00quickly. And the latest data suggests
28. 1:03we're already close to or even past the
29. 1:05threshold for El Niño to begin. It can
30. 1:07bring chaos to weather patterns all over
31. 1:09the world, and it's expected to keep
32. 1:11building, peaking in strength later this
33. 1:14year. So, how strong could it get? Well,
34. 1:17forecasters around the world use
35. 1:18different models to predict El Niño, and
36. 1:21right now, they're all pointing in the
37. 1:23same direction. The Pacific is warming
38. 1:26fast. US forecasters say that El Niño
39. 1:29will officially form within the next
40. 1:31month, and by late autumn or early
41. 1:33winter, there's a two-in-three chance it
42. 1:36will become strong or even very strong.
43. 1:39Australian forecasters have similar
44. 1:41predictions, and European forecasters
45. 1:43say that around half of their models
46. 1:45show it could be one of the strongest on
47. 1:47record. This has prompted some to call
48. 1:50this a super, mega, or even Godzilla El
49. 1:54Niño later this year. You'd have to go
50. 1:56back over a decade to find a very strong
51. 1:58El Nino in modern history. In 2015,
52. 2:012016, and 1997-1998,
53. 2:05temperatures in the El Nino region of
54. 2:07the Pacific were 2.4° above average, and
55. 2:10that's still lower than some forecasts
56. 2:13for this year, which are suggesting the
57. 2:14average temperature could be between 2.5
58. 2:18and 3° warmer than usual. The strongest
59. 2:21ever El Nino is thought to be in 1877,
60. 2:24when the temperature was 2.7 above
61. 2:27average. Though, this was a very
62. 2:29different era, when there were much
63. 2:31fewer observations. So, what does it
64. 2:33mean for weather?
65. 2:34Well, this is the key, and there's one
66. 2:36region which can be hit most directly.
67. 2:39No two El Ninos are exactly the same,
68. 2:41and so officials say that the particular
69. 2:43strength of an El Nino doesn't directly
70. 2:46correlate with the strength of the
71. 2:48impact seen. But, we do know it's likely
72. 2:51to have more of an impact to those
73. 2:53regions around the Pacific. So, flooding
74. 2:55in northern Peru and southern Ecuador is
75. 2:58common, but also potentially in East
76. 3:00Africa, Central Asia, and southern
77. 3:02portions of North America. At the same
78. 3:04time, other regions get the opposite
79. 3:06effects. El Nino tends to suppress
80. 3:09Atlantic tropical storms, which might
81. 3:12sound like good news, but for Central
82. 3:14America, that leads to a lot less
83. 3:17rainfall, and potentially drought
84. 3:19conditions. There is a greater chance of
85. 3:21drought and wildfires in parts of
86. 3:22Australia, Indonesia, and the north of
87. 3:25South America,
88. 3:26which can damage agriculture and reduce
89. 3:29global food supplies. It will depend on
90. 3:31the eventual strength of El Nino, but
91. 3:33scientists are already suggesting that
92. 3:352027 could become the warmest year on
93. 3:37record. So, how has El Nino affected the
94. 3:39climate in the past? Well, the last El
95. 3:42Nino in 2023-24
96. 3:44helped make 2024 the warmest year on
97. 3:47record. And during the last very strong
98. 3:50El Nino in 2015-2016
99. 3:53that I mentioned earlier, there was
100. 3:54severe drought in parts of Africa,
101. 3:56specifically Ethiopia and the Caribbean.
102. 4:00Increased wildfires hit Central Asia
103. 4:03and there was a huge impact on food. The
104. 4:05droughts and floods caused by that El
105. 4:07Nino a decade ago affected the food
106. 4:09security of more than 60 million people,
107. 4:12according to the UN. Chocolate is one
108. 4:15example where we could be paying more
109. 4:17later this year and into next. After the
110. 4:20last El Nino, chocolate got 15% more
111. 4:23expensive because dry weather in Ghana
112. 4:25and the Ivory Coast affected the cocoa
113. 4:27harvests. Should we be concerned then?
114. 4:30It's not just about chocolate prices.
115. 4:32The impact of El Nino is already being
116. 4:35felt for some. Forest fires in Indonesia
117. 4:38have started earlier this year and
118. 4:40communities there are especially worried
119. 4:42that El Nino could intensify those
120. 4:44wildfires, damaging homes, businesses
121. 4:47and agriculture. And what's happening in
122. 4:49the Middle East affects things, too.
123. 4:51It's already putting pressure on food
124. 4:53production and agriculture. The price of
125. 4:55fertilizer has increased and this will
126. 4:57impact harvests in the coming months.
127. 4:59So, we could see reduced food supplies
128. 5:02and higher prices. Sources have told me
129. 5:04that there have been already lots of
130. 5:06conversations happening to prepare for
131. 5:07El Nino between UN agencies,
132. 5:10international NGOs and inter-agency
133. 5:12committees. For the UK, any direct
134. 5:15impacts on our weather from El Nino are
135. 5:17less certain, but climate scientists at
136. 5:19the Met Office say El Nino years can
137. 5:21increase the risk of colder winters
138. 5:24here. Overall, we could be looking at
139. 5:26potentially big humanitarian impacts
140. 5:29through this year.