How 'open' is the Strait of Hormuz? | Global News Podcast — Transcript

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1. 0:00Welcome to the Global News podcast from
2. 0:02the BBC World Service. I'm Will Chalk.
3. 0:05Well, today we're looking at the Strait
4. 0:06of Hormuz and exactly what the situation
5. 0:08is there right now. We're joined by John
6. 0:10Donnison, our correspondent in
7. 0:12Jerusalem. So, John, we've seen the US
8. 0:15and Iran exchange strikes again over the
9. 0:18weekend. And at the heart of it was the
10. 0:19fact that Iran struck a cargo ship in
11. 0:22the Strait of Hormuz because it said it
12. 0:24was taking the wrong route. So, John,
13. 0:26let's talk about those routes through
14. 0:28the Strait of Hormuz then. Why are they
15. 0:30so important?
16. 0:32>> Well, look, what America wants out of
17. 0:34this deal is for the Strait to fully
18. 0:37reopen. And that was clearly a priority
19. 0:39of President Trump given the damage
20. 0:42that its closure has done to the global
21. 0:44economy. It's meant
22. 0:46higher energy prices, higher petrol
23. 0:48prices, global inflation, higher
24. 0:51interest rates. So, it has really
25. 0:53affected the amount of money in people's
26. 0:55pockets for billions of people around
27. 0:57the world. However, what Iran wants is
28. 1:01to administer how that reopening
29. 1:04happens. And what's been happening,
30. 1:06according to the Iranians, is the
31. 1:07Americans have been routing ships closer
32. 1:11to Oman, which is on the other side of
33. 1:14the Strait of Hormuz from Iran. And the
34. 1:17Iranians say that's not acceptable. They
35. 1:19want to be deciding the route that they
36. 1:22say was set out in this memorandum of
37. 1:24understanding. And essentially, they
38. 1:26want to control who goes in and out.
39. 1:28>> But you used the phrase that the Strait
40. 1:30of Hormuz is open. How open actually is
41. 1:33it? Because traffic is nowhere near, is
42. 1:36it, the levels it was before this all
43. 1:37started?
44. 1:38>> No. So, before the war, there were round
45. 1:41about 130 ships. So, tankers, cargo
46. 1:45ships passing through the Strait of
47. 1:47Hormuz every day. 20% of the world's oil
48. 1:51passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
49. 1:53Now, we know that since the memorandum
50. 1:56of understanding was announced 2 weeks
51. 1:58ago. We think around 200 ships have
52. 2:00passed out in total. So, nowhere near
53. 2:03those pre-war levels and there are still
54. 2:05hundreds of ships stranded in the Strait
55. 2:08of Hormuz. Sailors on board uh have been
56. 2:11there for months. They're desperate to
57. 2:13get out and despite America's efforts to
58. 2:16get ships moving, that hasn't really
59. 2:18happened and and
60. 2:20quite a high proportion of the ships
61. 2:22that have been allowed to leave have
62. 2:23been carrying Iranian oil because one of
63. 2:26the key concessions that the Iranians
64. 2:28got out of this memorandum of
65. 2:30understanding was the lifting of oil
66. 2:33sanctions on a temporary basis on
67. 2:35Iranian oil. And that will allow the
68. 2:38Iranians to get billions of dollars back
69. 2:41into their economy, which has been hit
70. 2:43incredibly hard, of course, by sanctions
71. 2:45for years now.
72. 2:46>> Well, look, there has been so much
73. 2:48discussion about what the aims of this
74. 2:50war were, what it's achieved from a US
75. 2:52perspective. Is it fair to say that one
76. 2:55thing it definitely has achieved is
77. 2:57almost woken Iran up to what incredible
78. 2:59bargaining power its blockades of the
79. 3:01strait can have?
80. 3:03>> Yeah, I think you've hit the nail on the
81. 3:04head there and I think what we've seen
82. 3:07over the weekend, where we've had Iran
83. 3:10carrying out drone strikes on tankers it
84. 3:12said have strayed out of the shipping
85. 3:14lane that they want, is Iran exercising
86. 3:17that leverage which it now knows it has.
87. 3:20So, one of the questions that's still to
88. 3:23be decided when this broader deal is
89. 3:26concluded and we've got like a 60-day
90. 3:28ceasefire period supposedly now uh to
91. 3:31negotiate that broader deal, is will it
92. 3:35go back to the status quo as it was
93. 3:37before the war when there were no tolls
94. 3:39for passing through the Strait of Hormuz
95. 3:41or will uh Iran start to begin imposing
96. 3:45tolls? And we've had uh different
97. 3:46messages from the Iranians over the past
98. 3:49few weeks, but certainly uh they have
99. 3:51said that things will not go back to the
100. 3:52status quo before the war. So, you know,
101. 3:55that is quite a major loss for the
102. 3:57United States and frankly the global
103. 3:59economy.
104. 4:00>> In terms of a ceasefire more generally
105. 4:02in the hopes for a permanent deal to be
106. 4:05signed,
107. 4:06can it feasibly go ahead unless the
108. 4:08issue of the Strait of Hormuz is
109. 4:10conclusively sorted out?
110. 4:13>> Well, look, the reopening of the Strait
111. 4:15was clearly a priority for the
112. 4:17Americans. It was only really the
113. 4:21big achievement of this memorandum of
114. 4:23understanding because all the other more
115. 4:25difficult issues around nuclear program,
116. 4:27its support for proxy groups such as
117. 4:29Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza
118. 4:32were not resolved. Neither was the issue
119. 4:34of its ballistic missile program. So,
120. 4:36you know, if this deal is going to
121. 4:38progress, then the Strait has got to
122. 4:42reopen. And I do think that on both
123. 4:45sides, both the Americans and the
124. 4:47Iranians, there is no real appetite
125. 4:50to resume a full-scale war. This has
126. 4:53been a very unpopular war in the United
127. 4:55States. President Trump has, of course,
128. 4:59got crucial midterm congressional
129. 5:02elections coming up for his Republican
130. 5:04Party
131. 5:05later in the year, in November. Polls
132. 5:08show the war has not been a winner for
133. 5:11them and they've been losing support,
134. 5:13the Republican Party. And also
135. 5:16for the Iranians, of course, well, they
136. 5:18have been absolutely pounded by US and
137. 5:22Israeli military. So, there is no real
138. 5:25appetite for them to resume the war
139. 5:27either, but they are both trying to get
140. 5:31the best deal they can
141. 5:33out for it for themselves. So, if we
142. 5:36keep seeing skirmishes, escalations in
143. 5:39violence like this,
144. 5:41uh you could see the deal begin to
145. 5:43unravel. Although, we're hearing that
146. 5:45now an agreement has been made by both
147. 5:49the United States and Iran to try and
148. 5:51stand down from a military their
149. 5:54military positions to allow shipping to
150. 5:56resume. We'll have to see what happens
151. 5:58in the next few days and weeks.
152. 6:00>> Now of course John, this isn't just
153. 6:02about Iran and the US. There is Israel
154. 6:04and Lebanon to be concerned with as
155. 6:07well. So how much more complicated does
156. 6:09that make this?
157. 6:11>> Well, it's a big potential complication.
158. 6:13Iran has insisted that Lebanon must be
159. 6:16part of this broader deal with the
160. 6:19United States.
161. 6:20But
162. 6:23Israeli troops continue to occupy a
163. 6:25large chunk of southern Lebanon, about
164. 6:275% of the country. And in recent weeks,
165. 6:30despite supposedly there being a
166. 6:32ceasefire,
167. 6:34fighting has continued there
168. 6:36between Hezbollah and Israel. And of
169. 6:39course, Hezbollah have never signed up
170. 6:42to any sort of ceasefire. The ceasefire
171. 6:44was done by the Lebanese government
172. 6:47and the Israelis. So
173. 6:49you know, that also has the potential to
174. 6:53see these talks unravel. Now, since the
175. 6:57end of last week, we have seen a bit of
176. 6:59a de-escalation in violence in southern
177. 7:02Lebanon. But as I say, Israeli forces
178. 7:04continue to remain there. And while they
179. 7:07do, that is completely unacceptable to
180. 7:10Hezbollah. It is going to be difficult
181. 7:13to keep a lid on the conflict there too.
182. 7:16And the Israelis have stressed over the
183. 7:19weekend that they have no intention of
184. 7:21withdrawing their forces
185. 7:24from southern Lebanon. So it's another
186. 7:27factor in what is a very complex
187. 7:30regional conflict.
188. 7:32>> This all shows, doesn't it, just how
189. 7:33complicated this is. You mentioned 60
190. 7:36days to do it. I mean, what are the
191. 7:38hopes for these talks? And what are the
192. 7:40next steps for them as well?
193. 7:42>> Well, just a short while ago President
194. 7:45Trump has put out on social media that
195. 7:47talks will resume in Doha in the Gulf on
196. 7:52Tuesday. I've not seen confirmation that
197. 7:55the Iranians are going to attend. We've
198. 7:57had announcement of talks taking place
199. 7:59at negotiations taking place before and
200. 8:01then they haven't actually materialized.
201. 8:03So, let's wait and see if that happens.
202. 8:06As I say though, you know, all the
203. 8:09really difficult issues and we've barely
204. 8:10talked about that today, notably Iran's
205. 8:13nuclear program which was the whole
206. 8:16reason or certainly the biggest reason
207. 8:18for which Israel and the United States
208. 8:20said they were going to war
209. 8:23to dismantle
210. 8:25Iran's nuclear ambition ambitions. Well,
211. 8:28that hasn't been resolved at all
212. 8:30and we've only got initially 60 days to
213. 8:33do it. So, we're making pretty small
214. 8:35steps at the moment with quite a few
215. 8:37setbacks on the way, too.
216. 8:40>> Thanks, John. That is John Donnison, our
217. 8:42correspondent in Jerusalem there. If you
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