How is Nato preparing for the future of war? | Global News Podcast — Transcript

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1. 0:00Hello, welcome to the Global News
2. 0:01podcast from the BBC. I'm Ankur Desai.
3. 0:03On this episode, I'm joined by our
4. 0:05diplomatic correspondent Paul Adams.
5. 0:08Paul, the UK has announced a
6. 0:09multi-billion-dollar plan. That's in
7. 0:12order to bring its armed forces in line
8. 0:14with the future of warfare. So, just
9. 0:16tell us first up a little bit more about
10. 0:18it.
11. 0:19>> The way the government frames this is
12. 0:21this is the in the midst of the largest
13. 0:24investment in defense spending for
14. 0:26decades.
15. 0:27The problem is that they are working
16. 0:29from a low base.
17. 0:32The Prime Minister has said repeatedly
18. 0:35that the armed forces have been hollowed
19. 0:36out by decades of underinvestment. And
20. 0:39at a time when everyone from the top top
21. 0:42of the military leadership on down is
22. 0:44warning that this country is facing
23. 0:47very real and growing threats that need
24. 0:49to be addressed and quickly. With this
25. 0:52general belief that Europe as a whole
26. 0:55should be ready
27. 0:56possibly to confront Russian forces
28. 0:59within the next 5 years, which is a
29. 1:01fairly, you know, terrifying prospect.
30. 1:03>> It's interesting you touched upon Russia
31. 1:05there, the Ukraine conflict. Let's also
32. 1:07add in the Iranian conflict as well. How
33. 1:10much have these conflicts been
34. 1:11game-changers in terms of how
35. 1:14they use artificial intelligence,
36. 1:15drones, and and and I guess
37. 1:18these plans reflect the lessons that
38. 1:19have been learned through those
39. 1:21conflicts and what, let's say, the West
40. 1:23needs to do in order to keep up to
41. 1:25speed.
42. 1:25>> Yeah, they absolutely do. And you know,
43. 1:27you wouldn't want to be a person drawing
44. 1:30up any of these plans frankly, the
45. 1:32moment the ink dries on your proposal,
46. 1:34you're finding that some some new
47. 1:36technological development has has if not
48. 1:39rendered your plans redundant, then at
49. 1:40least, you know, move things on a bit.
50. 1:42And that has been the absolute lesson
51. 1:44learned in Ukraine. Drones have
52. 1:47absolutely transformed everything from
53. 1:49the smallest, cheapest drones to the
54. 1:53largest, most sophisticated unmanned
55. 1:56platforms. Because, you know, drones is
56. 1:58a is perhaps a slightly a subset. You
57. 2:01people talk about uncrewed or unmanned
58. 2:04platforms, autonomous platforms. And
59. 2:06that could be, you know, a tiny drone or
60. 2:08a 100 foot long ship capable of
61. 2:12launching missiles and you know, and all
62. 2:14sorts of things. So,
63. 2:16what we're going to see in this new
64. 2:19sort of vision of the military, at least
65. 2:21what the theory is, that we will have
66. 2:24all of the three armed wings of the
67. 2:26armed forces integrating this new
68. 2:29technology along with AI uh
69. 2:33alongside existing kind of traditional
70. 2:36platforms. So, you know,
71. 2:38unmanned vehicles alongside heavy armor
72. 2:41um
73. 2:42uh
74. 2:43unmanned aircraft flying in conjunction
75. 2:45with jets in the sky and out at sea the
76. 2:48same thing applying. Now, there are a
77. 2:50lot of people who are a little skeptical
78. 2:53uh because a lot of this sounds pretty
79. 2:55futuristic. We know from Ukraine that
80. 2:58some of this is tried and tested and you
81. 3:00know, that that's a good place to start.
82. 3:03Um but uh I think there are a lot of
83. 3:05people who are nervous that perhaps the
84. 3:07government is is is jumping into that
85. 3:10particular
86. 3:12line of thinking and perhaps sacrificing
87. 3:15some more traditional uh concepts in the
88. 3:18process. I mean, it clearly there's
89. 3:20going to have to be some kind of hybrid
90. 3:21and you hear that word all the time. Uh
91. 3:24and the details of that I think will
92. 3:25take quite a while to emerge.
93. 3:26>> If you look beyond the UK then and NATO
94. 3:28as a whole, how prepared is it then for
95. 3:30this new type of warfare? I've seen some
96. 3:32army generals saying that Vladimir Putin
97. 3:34has looked at the West and thought
98. 3:35actually there aren't many deterrents
99. 3:36there. So, therefore he's sort of
100. 3:38launched this war when he did.
101. 3:40>> Well, you know, point number one, that
102. 3:42didn't go so very well for him um
103. 3:45because he took a look at what he
104. 3:46thought was a very weak enemy and turned
105. 3:48out to be a far more
106. 3:49uh enterprising and resilient than he
107. 3:51could possibly have imagined.
108. 3:53The ripple effects of 2022
109. 3:56and the full-scale invasion
110. 3:58uh were felt initially, not
111. 4:00surprisingly, in Eastern Europe, the
112. 4:02Baltics, Poland. These are countries
113. 4:04that have hugely increased their defense
114. 4:06spending,
115. 4:07and they're the ones who have been
116. 4:08sounding the alarm bells about Russian
117. 4:10intentions most, you know, most
118. 4:12vociferously for some years now.
119. 4:14I think part of the problem, the further
120. 4:16you get from from Eastern Europe, is the
121. 4:19more remote it seems to the general
122. 4:21public.
123. 4:22You know, defense chiefs here in the UK
124. 4:25have been talking about these dangers
125. 4:27uh and illustrating these dangers for
126. 4:29some time now, but it still feels, I
127. 4:32think, to the general public a slightly
128. 4:35remote threat.
129. 4:37You know, the fact that there are
130. 4:38Russian vessels out at sea hovering over
131. 4:41undersea cables or or, you know,
132. 4:43sabotage uh
133. 4:45operations being mounted by disaffected
134. 4:47teenagers sponsored by Russian handlers
135. 4:50in various parts of Europe. All of these
136. 4:51things feel like irritants, but they
137. 4:53don't feel like a kind of imminent
138. 4:55threat. And I think that is part of the
139. 4:57problem that the government has, because
140. 4:59the one thing that, you know, the
141. 5:00general public is concerned about is the
142. 5:02cost of living, welfare, and all of
143. 5:05these sorts of things, potholes in the
144. 5:06roads. You know, Russian threats seem a
145. 5:09bit theoretical by comparison. And so,
146. 5:12the government is juggling these
147. 5:13priorities,
148. 5:15uh and depending on, you know, what sub-
149. 5:18side of the fence you're on, not quite
150. 5:20finding the right balance. Um but Europe
151. 5:24definitely is rising to the challenge.
152. 5:26All the European NATO members uh are
153. 5:29now, in fact, all NATO members have met
154. 5:31the 2% of uh of uh GDP, which was an
155. 5:35earlier NATO target. Some of them are
156. 5:38well beyond that. Um Poland is at 4.3%,
157. 5:41Lithuania 4, the UK currently 2.31,
158. 5:45Germany has just overtaken the the UK at
159. 5:49at 2.39 and then you've got countries
160. 5:50like Spain and Portugal lagging some way
161. 5:53behind. Of course, Donald Trump wants
162. 5:56his
163. 5:56>> Closer to 5%, right?
164. 5:58>> Indeed. And that's a break
165. 5:59[clears throat] That's 3.5% on on core
166. 6:02defense spending plus another 1.5% on
167. 6:05sort of
168. 6:05resilience, national infrastructure, the
169. 6:07kind of wider security
170. 6:09>> Right.
171. 6:09>> uh picture. Uh and the government says
172. 6:13that it intends to meet that target and
173. 6:15that the latest pledges on spending are
174. 6:18nudging us in the direction of that.
175. 6:21I think the government's critics argue
176. 6:23we're not really seeing a timetable for
177. 6:25meeting any of these ambitious targets.
178. 6:27And that the targets are being discussed
179. 6:30um but they're not convinced that the
180. 6:32government has really got a plan to meet
181. 6:34those targets.
182. 6:35>> And with Donald Trump insisting on
183. 6:37countries to meet that 5% GDP target in
184. 6:39terms of spending on defense, um are you
185. 6:42are you seeing countries are pushing
186. 6:44quickly towards that target or are they
187. 6:47Are NATO countries still feeling as
188. 6:49though they will do it at their own
189. 6:50pace? They're not going to be put under
190. 6:52pressure by the US.
191. 6:53>> Yeah, I mean there are some countries
192. 6:54like Spain who are, you know, actively
193. 6:56resisting American pressure in all sorts
194. 6:59of ways. Um
195. 7:01you know, I think most people would say
196. 7:04Donald Trump has in a way done uh
197. 7:07European the Europeans a favor by being
198. 7:10pretty brutal about this uh and by
199. 7:13basically telling the Europeans, "Look,
200. 7:15you've been freeloading on on American
201. 7:18goodwill since the end of the Second
202. 7:19World War. The time has come for you to
203. 7:21look after security in your continent."
204. 7:24That is now
205. 7:25uh a an an entirely accepted mantra
206. 7:29across Europe. Um we are we are we're
207. 7:31hearing European leaders talking about
208. 7:34uh essentially
209. 7:35uh becoming the main drivers of NATO,
210. 7:38the main funders of NATO, the main
211. 7:40organizers of NATO
212. 7:43thinking possibly of a time when maybe
213. 7:45the United States decides NATO is not
214. 7:47really its business anymore and it's
215. 7:49more interested in, you know, the the
216. 7:51the the Pacific
217. 7:53arena. So,
218. 7:55there's a very real sense across
219. 7:57Europe that the the the countries of
220. 8:00Europe, the EU, and and and Britain and
221. 8:02others
222. 8:03need to be taking more responsibility
223. 8:06for for their own security. And I I mean
224. 8:08that is an important part of Donald
225. 8:10Trump's legacy. Of course, he's not
226. 8:12going to be here
227. 8:13in a couple of years' time
228. 8:15and
229. 8:16who knows, [clears throat] the war in
230. 8:17Ukraine may eventually fizzle out and
231. 8:21this notion of of a kind of rapacious,
232. 8:23dangerous Russia could start to fade.
233. 8:27Right now, we're we're living through
234. 8:29the period where there's sort of maximum
235. 8:31perceived danger.
236. 8:33Who knows what the world would look like
237. 8:35in 5 years' time? Yeah, as you alluded
238. 8:37to that point about that Russian threat
239. 8:39in 5 years' time, could could could this
240. 8:41also be NATO preparing for a possible
241. 8:46war in the future and just having
242. 8:47deterrents in place? We we saw recently
243. 8:49reports come out of North Korea that
244. 8:51they are arming themselves, they you
245. 8:53know, with nuclear technology.
246. 8:55People always worry about threats from,
247. 8:57you know, further afield because there
248. 8:59are
249. 9:00opportunities because of the
250. 9:01sophisticated nature of technology
251. 9:04moving so quickly that there could be
252. 9:05threats from so far away to countries,
253. 9:08you know, on the other side of the
254. 9:09world. So, is this a sign of preparation
255. 9:12rather than prediction of of some sort
256. 9:14of a conflict? Yeah, I mean I think it's
257. 9:16it's definitely it's about deterrence.
258. 9:19Yes, you're right. I mean North Korea I
259. 9:21think has ballistic missiles capable of
260. 9:23hitting the American mainland.
261. 9:27You know, question marks about its
262. 9:28ability to to to stick nuclear weapons
263. 9:30on top of these,
264. 9:32but
265. 9:33we haven't we don't talk a great deal
266. 9:35about North Korea at the moment, but
267. 9:36it's certainly a continuing threat. We
268. 9:39we saw moments during the Iran war where
269. 9:41its ability to launch ballistic missiles
270. 9:43much further than people um were were
271. 9:46had had thought possible. You know, so
272. 9:48that there was a realization there that
273. 9:50those were that was a danger. But all
274. 9:52the focus really is on on Russia and on
275. 9:55Vladimir Putin and on the kind of the
276. 9:58rhetoric surrounding the war in Ukraine
277. 10:00um and the sense that uh if you look
278. 10:03around Europe
279. 10:05and you you kind of start to tally up
280. 10:07these various hybrid dangers, exploding
281. 10:11parcels in a DHL warehouse, you know,
282. 10:14which could have blown up on a on an
283. 10:15aircraft,
284. 10:17Russian warships
285. 10:19um hovering over and inspecting, you
286. 10:21know, vital
287. 10:23um undersea cables and so forth. Um
288. 10:26the these are the kind of dangers that
289. 10:28people are identifying. I don't think
290. 10:30outside of Poland and the Baltics, you
291. 10:34have a lot of governments thinking, "Oh
292. 10:35my god, Russia is about to invade on the
293. 10:38ground."
294. 10:40But we need to be in a position to deter
295. 10:42that and any other of the
296. 10:45more kind of hybrid threats that Russia
297. 10:49is is demonstrating on an almost daily
298. 10:50basis.
299. 10:51>> Paul Adams there, our diplomatic
300. 10:53correspondent. If you like more content
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302. 10:56remember to click on the link below.
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304. 10:59and we'll see you on the next episode.