How I Mechanically Confirm Daily Bias (Using Daily Profiles) — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:00The only thing more important than bias
- 0:02for getting on the right side of the
- 0:03market is what you use to actually
- 0:05confirm the bias itself. And that's
- 0:07where daily profiles come in. This is
- 0:09something that uses the development of
- 0:11the current daily candle and tells you
- 0:13in a very simple way, is this a bias
- 0:15that's likely to play out in this day
- 0:17that I have established, or is it
- 0:19something that's invalid and I should
- 0:21avoid it entirely? It acts as its own
- 0:23filter. This is something that I use
- 0:25every single day in my trading, and I've
- 0:28been using daily profiles for years and
- 0:30years. This is the most refined and
- 0:33foundational version of it. So, let's
- 0:35get right into this. So, if you happen
- 0:36to be unfamiliar with my trading or any
- 0:39content that I've shared in the past,
- 0:41the first question you may be asking
- 0:42yourself is, what specifically is a
- 0:45daily profile? First, it's important to
- 0:47understand the actual function and logic
- 0:49behind using daily profiles. What you're
- 0:51seeing here are three parts of my
- 0:53system, bias, confirmation, and entry. I
- 0:56establish a bias using relevant swings
- 0:58off a daily time frame, confirm them
- 1:01with a daily profile, and then enter
- 1:03once I have that alignment using the
- 1:05daily profile as framework for that
- 1:07entry. The mistake that a lot of traders
- 1:09make is they establish this bias off the
- 1:11higher time frames, and then they jump
- 1:13immediately to seeking that entry. And
- 1:15that causes two main issues and
- 1:17mistakes. The first is that if you have
- 1:19this idea and you go right to entry,
- 1:21what's your timing aspect? Are you going
- 1:23to force a trade in that direction? When
- 1:25is that bias invalid? These are
- 1:27questions you have to ask yourself. The
- 1:29other part is that bias isn't always
- 1:31going to be correct. There's this
- 1:33misconception that if your bias is
- 1:35correct, you're going to make money on
- 1:36that day. If your bias is incorrect, you
- 1:38have to lose money. That is not the
- 1:40case. You do not need to be right on
- 1:42your bias every single time, and you
- 1:44won't be. That's why we layer in a
- 1:46confirmation step, because the days that
- 1:48we get that bias wrong and the daily
- 1:50profile shows us it's invalid before we
- 1:53jump to an entry, we filter those days
- 1:55out and we avoid taking unnecessary
- 1:57losses. So, it's not only helping us
- 1:59frame an entry properly and getting that
- 2:02timing right, but it's also filtering
- 2:04out the days that were incorrect on a
- 2:06bias. Overall, it's taking us from being
- 2:08a predictor on the market just relying
- 2:11on our bias and then trying to get on
- 2:12side to someone who executes with reason
- 2:15when we have confirmation of the idea
- 2:18that alignment tells us we can now take
- 2:20an entry. So, what this actually looks
- 2:22like in a chart, let's take this example
- 2:24here. This is a daily time frame just
- 2:26for the sake of this case. We have a
- 2:29manipulation of a relevant low on the
- 2:31daily with failure swings above. This is
- 2:33a classic framework. This following day
- 2:36I would look to trade away from this
- 2:38manipulation low into the failure swing
- 2:40high. So, I'm assuming this daily candle
- 2:42should expand to the upside in this
- 2:44fashion. That is my bias, but I'm not
- 2:47seeing this and saying on the open of
- 2:48this next candle, just because I assume
- 2:50price should go higher, doesn't mean I
- 2:52just immediately and blindly take an
- 2:53entry. That's where we start to profile
- 2:56the development of that daily candle.
- 2:58So, for example, we have this idea the
- 3:01daily candle should print in this way
- 3:02and we have support from the higher time
- 3:04frame, but we watch the development of
- 3:07the opening part of that daily candle
- 3:09and that's either going to confirm that
- 3:11we are in alignment or invalidate the
- 3:13bias and the idea that we have. There
- 3:15are three main daily profiles that once
- 3:18we see them in the development, that
- 3:20means the market is now actionable and
- 3:22we would take trades alongside that.
- 3:24Because we're using the daily candle
- 3:26alongside our bias, we have this idea
- 3:28the daily candle should expand in one
- 3:31direction or the other, we want to know
- 3:33what the daily candle is made up of. And
- 3:35that's these three sessions here of
- 3:37Asia, London, and New York. Asia goes
- 3:39from 18:00 to 1:00, London from 1:00 to
- 3:428:00, New York from 8:00 to the close.
- 3:45We're really focused on the earlier part
- 3:46of New York, but we'll explain that
- 3:48later on. Each of these sessions is
- 3:49broken up into 7-hour time windows that
- 3:54form the daily candle. And we're going
- 3:56to use this to show the sessions on the
- 3:58chart by using a 7-hour time frame.
- 4:01That's going to give us three candles
- 4:04within the daily candle that are going
- 4:06to be used to profile that day. So, what
- 4:08you see here, if we were on a 7-hour
- 4:10time frame, we have the 18 candle, which
- 4:13is representing the Asia session. We'd
- 4:15have a 1:00 candle representing the
- 4:17London session, and an 8:00 candle for
- 4:19the New York session. This provides you
- 4:21a higher time frame perspective without
- 4:24having noise from the lower time frames
- 4:26to get a daily profile inside of the
- 4:28current day and follow very mechanical
- 4:31steps. And again, we're using this
- 4:337-hour time frame because we get the
- 4:35open and close of these candles in
- 4:38alignment with the daily candle
- 4:40sessions. And this is how we give
- 4:42relevance to this time frame because it
- 4:44ties into the sessions of the daily
- 4:46candle. And I always say the market
- 4:48doesn't recognize the open high low
- 4:51close of an hourly candle at 7:00 a.m.
- 4:55or 4-hour open high low close at 6:00
- 4:58a.m. These are not things that the
- 5:00market recognizes, but this time frame
- 5:02captures session logic, and I'm going to
- 5:05show you why that's so crucial. Here we
- 5:08have a visual of the average volatility
- 5:11inside a current day hour by hour and
- 5:14broken up in between 7-hour windows. We
- 5:18have this Asia session, London, and New
- 5:20York. You're already immediately seeing
- 5:21a clear difference in these sessions. We
- 5:23have the Asia session, which is very low
- 5:26volatility. We have London, which gets a
- 5:28spike and is slightly higher, and then
- 5:31significant difference in the New York
- 5:33session where that volatility is the
- 5:35highest of that day. So, we have these
- 5:37three 7-hour candles that actually
- 5:40capture this logic, and each session has
- 5:43its own function. And this is just
- 5:45adding to the point that we're using
- 5:47this alongside things that the market
- 5:49actually cares about and reacts to.
- 5:51Things like session opens and news
- 5:54events. We can already see the spike
- 5:56here of that 3:00 London session open.
- 5:59We get that initial volatility and
- 6:01sustaining it for a period. Then this
- 6:04large spike is not random. It's
- 6:06happening because we get 8:30 news
- 6:08events on many days, low and high
- 6:10impact. And then we have that 9:30 open
- 6:12for the indices market. And while I'm
- 6:14referring to this in the context of the
- 6:16indices market, this is pulled from NQ,
- 6:19this is a consistent thing through most
- 6:21major markets, whether it's gold,
- 6:23whether it's oil, whether it's even euro
- 6:25futures, it's all consistent and we
- 6:28focus towards that New York session. And
- 6:31one more point on the data behind these
- 6:33sessions inside of the daily candle, I
- 6:36want you to keep these in mind as we
- 6:37move through this lesson. The average
- 6:39amount of the daily range that is made
- 6:41up by the sessions. Asia is 17% London
- 6:4523% and then New York is 60%. That's the
- 6:49majority of the daily candle in one
- 6:52tightened window of time. Then we have
- 6:54the close in the direction of the daily
- 6:56candle. For example, we have a bias that
- 6:58the daily candle should either be an up
- 7:00close or a down close candle because
- 7:02we're getting that based on the
- 7:03framework from the higher time frame.
- 7:06The Asia session only closes in that
- 7:07direction 58% of the time. London 62.
- 7:12Then we see New York, it's 86% of the
- 7:14time. That is a significant jump higher
- 7:18from these two sessions before that are
- 7:20basically coin flips, hardly better than
- 7:22that. New York session is the one that
- 7:24closes and makes that move in the
- 7:26direction of the daily candle and makes
- 7:29up the majority of it. So we see this
- 7:31logic coming together of the sessions,
- 7:33tying that into the 7-hour time frame
- 7:35and that brings weight to the things
- 7:37that we look at in the daily profile.
- 7:39Next is what the three profiles that
- 7:41we're going to look for actually are in
- 7:43the market. We first have the 18
- 7:46reversal, which is when the Asia session
- 7:48in that first 7-hour candle of the day
- 7:50makes the intraday high or low, and then
- 7:54the 1:00 candle expands away, leaving
- 7:57the New York session to be another
- 7:59continuation for the rest of the range
- 8:01inside of that day. Then we have the
- 8:031:00 candle reversal. This is when that
- 8:0618 candle either makes an opposing run,
- 8:08consolidates, and then that 1:00 candle
- 8:11comes in, runs out the range of the Asia
- 8:14session, and then reverses in the
- 8:16opposing direction, leaving the New York
- 8:18session to be in a continuation. And
- 8:20finally, we have the 8:00 reversal, and
- 8:23this is when both or one of the 18 or
- 8:261:00 candle either consolidate or make
- 8:30an opposing run. Basically, these two
- 8:32sessions of Asia and London are not
- 8:34establishing an intraday reversal like
- 8:37they do here, leaving us to demand the
- 8:408:00 candle or that New York session to
- 8:42establish an intraday reversal and then
- 8:44expand off of that in the direction of
- 8:47our bias. And just for the sake of the
- 8:49visual, here are the three profiles in a
- 8:51bearish example when you have a bias for
- 8:53the day that we'd be seeking the
- 8:55downside move inside of that daily
- 8:57candle. It is the exact same logic just
- 9:00on the other side of the market. Now
- 9:02that you have this idea and picture in
- 9:03your mind of what these three profiles
- 9:05look like that we're going to be seeking
- 9:07out inside of these days that we have a
- 9:09bias, we want to move into the actual
- 9:11process for how we apply this. And like
- 9:14I said earlier, we're moving away from
- 9:16being a predictor of the market and
- 9:18being so tied into that to moving into
- 9:20something that's more of a process. And
- 9:23that's where we get into these things
- 9:24called if this, then that statements. We
- 9:27follow a more mechanical, step-by-step
- 9:30process, and we say if this happens
- 9:33inside of the daily profile or in these
- 9:35sessions, then this should happen, and
- 9:37then this should be my next step in the
- 9:39next session. That's how we follow this
- 9:42intraday and stay tied into rules while
- 9:45taking in all of the context that the
- 9:47market is providing us. So, the first
- 9:49step in daily profiling, and this is
- 9:51universal regardless of what your bias
- 9:53is, is to allow the 18 candle, that Asia
- 9:56session, to print without you
- 9:59participating in it. Why we do this is
- 10:01for a two main reasons, and it's behind
- 10:04the logic of the daily profile that each
- 10:06session is a balance between context in
- 10:09the daily candle and likeliness to
- 10:11expand. The Asia session is on the lower
- 10:14side for both of those things. We know
- 10:16it's low context because the purpose of
- 10:19daily profile is that we use the
- 10:21development of the daily candle to tell
- 10:23us what should happen next in these
- 10:24execution windows. When we're in the
- 10:26Asia session, what do you look left on
- 10:29inside of the day? We only have a few
- 10:31hours, and we don't have enough movement
- 10:33in price or context to even understand
- 10:36what the next session should do, let
- 10:38alone the rest of the day. And it's also
- 10:40low in its likeliness to expand. If we
- 10:42just think back to the data that we just
- 10:44talked about, Asia has a very low
- 10:47average volatility, it does not make
- 10:48large ranges, and also it has a low
- 10:51percent chance of closing in the
- 10:54direction of that daily candle. You're
- 10:56trying to capture a bias, if it's not
- 10:58likely to trade in that direction, it's
- 10:59making opposing runs or consolidating,
- 11:02then it should be none of your business.
- 11:03It's a low probability time in the
- 11:05market. going to completely let it go.
- 11:08And coming back to that piece on the
- 11:10context, let's take an example here
- 11:12where the bias for that daily candle is
- 11:13bullish. When this 18 candle prints on
- 11:17the chart, you still have all of these
- 11:19three profiles that could be in play.
- 11:22You may see that London session expand
- 11:24away, and you're in an 18 candle
- 11:25reversal. You may see London session run
- 11:28out the range of that 18 candle, and
- 11:30then price reverses. Or that London
- 11:33session may just consolidate or sustain
- 11:35an opposing run and then New York
- 11:37session has to form that reversal.
- 11:39These three profiles that we are trying
- 11:41to get full confirmation on that are
- 11:44ideal for that daily candle to expand
- 11:46any one of the three could still play
- 11:48out regardless of how this 18 candle
- 11:50prints. So we want to let this go.
- 11:53London sits in this mid-tier for the
- 11:55sessions for likeliness to expand
- 11:58because we get that 3:00 London session
- 12:00open where volatility does spike and we
- 12:03often times can see movement there and
- 12:05it's also slightly increased to close in
- 12:07the direction of that daily candle, but
- 12:10it's not to an extent that it's as
- 12:11interesting to participate in and we can
- 12:14use this to our advantage. This video is
- 12:16so focused on getting you that
- 12:18foundation down and making this as
- 12:20simple as possible on you. If you allow
- 12:22that London session to print and we use
- 12:24these both as context, we're going to
- 12:26have that full idea for New York session
- 12:29and we're going to have the clearest
- 12:30picture possible for what we need to
- 12:32see, expect, and demand here. Coming
- 12:35back to these if this, then that
- 12:37statements, we're going to follow this
- 12:38process. Always allow that 18 candle to
- 12:41print and use the development of that
- 12:431:00 candle to determine the profile.
- 12:46Looking at this here, if the 1:00 candle
- 12:49expands away from the 18 reversal, then
- 12:52seek an 8:00 candle continuation. We see
- 12:56this idea here, we allow this to print
- 12:58in the market, we don't participate. If
- 13:00we see that 1:00
- 13:02continue and expand away from that
- 13:05intraday reversal when we are bullish in
- 13:07this example or bearish if it's
- 13:09expanding away from a high, then we
- 13:11assume the market is already in the
- 13:13continuation and we look for an 8:00
- 13:15candle continuation. What this profile
- 13:18is doing is saying that the Asia session
- 13:20set an intraday reversal and the 1:00
- 13:23candle in London expanded away and
- 13:26continued that move. This example here
- 13:28is of course we're looking for that
- 13:30upside move. So we're trying to confirm
- 13:31a bullish daily profile. But inside of
- 13:34expansion daily candles, which is what
- 13:36we're trying to frame, we do not see
- 13:38deeper retracements back in the opposing
- 13:41direction once that continuation is
- 13:43started. If the market breaks away like
- 13:45this from that intraday reversal, we
- 13:48assume that New York session, when we
- 13:50understand it's the main time for
- 13:51volatility, the main time for closing in
- 13:54the direction of that daily candle,
- 13:56making the majority of it, we are
- 13:58already in the continuation and we don't
- 14:00need price to return to any specific
- 14:02area to start that continuation. We
- 14:04assume it is already in place and we
- 14:07look for entry signatures in that
- 14:08direction. The next one is if the 1:00
- 14:11candle reverses off the 18 candle range,
- 14:15then seek 8:00 candle continuation. This
- 14:18is going to be your London reversal,
- 14:20where that 18 candle either
- 14:22consolidates, sets a range, or it makes
- 14:25some level of an opposing run to your
- 14:28bias. And that 1:00 candle comes in and
- 14:31runs out the Asia session range and then
- 14:33moves back and expands in the direction
- 14:36of your bias, forming that intraday
- 14:39reversal, and then New York session,
- 14:41again, if we already have the
- 14:43established reversal, we are assuming
- 14:45continuation in this day and New York
- 14:47will expand in that direction. And
- 14:50lastly, if we don't get alignment of one
- 14:52of those two scenarios, then we end up
- 14:54here where if the 18 and 1:00 candle
- 14:58fail to establish an intraday reversal,
- 15:00then seek an 8:00 candle reversal. So
- 15:03this is the case when that 18 candle and
- 15:061:00 candle either consolidate or form
- 15:09some level of an opposing run and do not
- 15:12create an intraday high or low to trade
- 15:15away from. When that happens, we know
- 15:17that when we go into this New York
- 15:19session, it has to form a new intraday
- 15:22reversal to then expand off of. So, we
- 15:25know exactly where to focus on in the
- 15:27market and what to demand from this
- 15:29session before trying to put on an
- 15:31entry. This is the other example that
- 15:33I'm referring to where these could be
- 15:34just part of an opposing run from the
- 15:37direction of that daily candle where we
- 15:39have the bias. Let's say we're bullish
- 15:40on this day. The 18 candle and the 1:00
- 15:43candle sustain a more shallow opposing
- 15:46run. And then when we look at this,
- 15:48there's no intraday reversal established
- 15:50and we can assume this just by
- 15:52understanding there's a small wick on
- 15:53this candle, the New York session has to
- 15:56run that out, establish a new intraday
- 15:58higher low, and then expand off of that.
- 16:01Now, the third step here, of course, is
- 16:03you've got your development inside of
- 16:05the Asia and London session. Now, we
- 16:07want to be looking to trade inside of
- 16:09the 8:00 candle time window. We use
- 16:12these two previous 7-hour candles for
- 16:14the Asia and London session to get all
- 16:16the context we need and now we place
- 16:19that focus into the New York session,
- 16:21which is the highest for likeliness to
- 16:23expand, and it is also highest context.
- 16:27We didn't just take our bias and think,
- 16:29"Let me enter the market." We have taken
- 16:31in all the context that the market has
- 16:33provided to that point and use it to our
- 16:36advantage to know exactly what we should
- 16:38be seeking and demanding inside of this
- 16:40session. Now, when you know what to
- 16:42expect and look for inside of this New
- 16:44York session using the daily profile,
- 16:47your only next step is to seek a valid
- 16:49entry. And while this video is not
- 16:51focused on my personal entry technique,
- 16:54as that's a topic for another time, you
- 16:56can use this logic of the 7-hour candles
- 16:59and positioning inside of that New York
- 17:01session with any type of entry logic
- 17:03that may work best for you. Because you
- 17:05have this time window that we have this
- 17:08expectation for what price should do,
- 17:11when it should do it, and where it
- 17:13should deliver off of. Or you can go go
- 17:15any of my previous trade recaps. You're
- 17:17going to find these exact same steps and
- 17:19look at how I'm entering inside of these
- 17:21sessions using opposing candles and a
- 17:24continuation sequence. Before getting
- 17:26into real chart examples, the last
- 17:28profile we want to know is when there's
- 17:30a full invalidation, regardless of what
- 17:33our bias is. That's going to be the case
- 17:36when either both or one of the 18 and
- 17:391:00 candle make a significant expansion
- 17:43through the overnight session to the
- 17:45point that we've captured the entire
- 17:46range of that daily candle and there's
- 17:49no more room left for that New York
- 17:51session to expand through. We've
- 17:54exhausted the range. When we have this
- 17:56type of outlier development where you
- 17:58get the largest ranges in the overnight
- 18:00session, which is not common, but when
- 18:03you have outlier scenarios, you get
- 18:05outlier development in the New York
- 18:07session. So, under the majority of
- 18:09conditions where we're going to see the
- 18:10largest ranges here, this is the type of
- 18:12condition where it's low-quality and low
- 18:15likeliness to expand because we've used
- 18:18up the majority of that daily range that
- 18:20we were initially looking to capture.
- 18:22So, it doesn't matter if you're bullish
- 18:24or bearish on the day and whether this
- 18:26expansion takes place higher or lower
- 18:28because in either case, it makes no
- 18:30difference. Let's assume on this day
- 18:32here, we have a bullish bias. We open
- 18:34the chart and we're looking for a
- 18:36continuation higher and these two
- 18:38sessions have expanded the daily range.
- 18:40There's no more room left to capitalize
- 18:42on realistically inside of that New York
- 18:45session. If we're bearish on a day like
- 18:47this and we see this exact same
- 18:49development, well, we don't want to
- 18:51trade this to the downside because we
- 18:52have this large and extensive move away
- 18:55from that daily candle open and large
- 18:57wicks do not support expansion. This is
- 19:00something I've talked about many times
- 19:02before. We want to see shallow wicks on
- 19:04that daily candle, that opposing run, to
- 19:06then capture the body of that daily
- 19:09candle. This large opposing run is also
- 19:11a negative condition. So, it doesn't
- 19:13matter what your bias is and which
- 19:15direction this overnight expansion takes
- 19:17place, it is always a full invalidation.
- 19:20Now, with this new understanding, let's
- 19:22move into some real chart examples from
- 19:25top to bottom on these opportunities
- 19:27that I've framed from the bias down to
- 19:29the daily profile confirmation and then
- 19:31actually positioning myself to get on
- 19:33side. Looking at this first example,
- 19:36we're on the daily chart and we're using
- 19:37relevant swings to determine the bias.
- 19:40Keeping it that simple, we have a
- 19:42manipulation off the highs, respecting
- 19:45that initial reversal. The previous day
- 19:47broke away from that manipulation while
- 19:50we still have a draw open in the market
- 19:52in the form of an opposing relevant
- 19:54swing. So, this next day following this,
- 19:56I'm going to have a bearish bias looking
- 19:59for an expansion to the downside. And
- 20:01following the rules of daily profiling,
- 20:03we're going to allow the 18 candle to
- 20:05print and use the 1:00 candle
- 20:07development to give us the full
- 20:09perspective on the daily profile to
- 20:11understand what the New York session
- 20:12should do. So, we take a look here, the
- 20:1418 candle opens up, makes an opposing
- 20:17run to the upside, our bias is bearish.
- 20:20The high does not form a reversal and we
- 20:22see that 1:00 candle come in, run up
- 20:24into the high and then expand to the
- 20:26downside. This to me shows the
- 20:28development of a London reversal and I'm
- 20:31going to go into that New York session
- 20:32saying my bias is confirmed, the
- 20:35development is showing this wants to
- 20:36play out to the downside and we have
- 20:38further room in the New York session to
- 20:40capture that continuation. On the
- 20:4215-minute here, I can look left to that
- 20:44high of day in that London session and
- 20:46we have a reversal confirmation, that
- 20:48series of up close candles close through
- 20:51and then I'm assuming we're in the
- 20:53continuation during New York because of
- 20:55the daily profile and these are valid
- 20:58opposing candles that are closed through
- 21:00and this becomes my entry with a stop at
- 21:02this high. In the continuation and when
- 21:05the market is expanding, valid opposing
- 21:07candles, which are closed through, will
- 21:09be respected. Entries are not a topic of
- 21:12this video, but I still want to share
- 21:13with you a small piece of what I'm
- 21:15looking for using the daily profile to
- 21:18actually frame an entry and understand
- 21:20where to take it. If we come back to the
- 21:227-hour time frame, we see the
- 21:23follow-through in the New York session,
- 21:2618 candle opposing run, reversal in the
- 21:291:00 candle, expansion and continuation
- 21:32in the 8:00 candle, completing the
- 21:35development of that expansion daily
- 21:37candle. This right here is the mover
- 21:39looking to capture. Moving on to the
- 21:41second example, we have again a
- 21:43framework using relevant swings off the
- 21:45daily. We see a relevant high in the
- 21:48market that was manipulated and we
- 21:50closed back down into the range off of
- 21:52it. And then at the lows, we see a
- 21:54series of failure swings to this
- 21:57opposing relevant low. This is an ideal
- 21:59framework again, trading away from the
- 22:01manipulation into failure swings. This
- 22:04next day, I want to trade away from this
- 22:06high and see price expand to the
- 22:08downside into the lows. Now getting into
- 22:10our daily profile process, I want to be
- 22:12trading away from this high, so I'm
- 22:13going to ask is there an invalidation or
- 22:15are we confirming one of our three
- 22:18profiles into the New York session? We
- 22:20have the 18 candle, which formed an
- 22:22initial high, and then in that 1:00
- 22:24candle, we didn't consolidate or form a
- 22:26new reversal, it broke away from that 18
- 22:30candle high. So it's at this time, I'm
- 22:32assuming we're in an 18 candle reversal.
- 22:34The New York session does not have to
- 22:36reach back up to any of these highs.
- 22:38We're already in the assumed
- 22:40continuation and we have confirmation of
- 22:42a high of day with that draw still open
- 22:45below off the daily chart using those
- 22:46failure swings, I want to see the New
- 22:48York session complete that move and
- 22:50expand to the downside. Down on the
- 22:5215-minute, we have that high of day in
- 22:54the Asia session, London breaks away,
- 22:57and again using opposing candles, we're
- 22:59assuming price is already in the
- 23:01continuation because during these
- 23:03expansion days, we don't see deep
- 23:05retracements. It doesn't need to return
- 23:07back up to the highs. We're already in
- 23:09that continuation. We have a valid
- 23:11opposing candle, closed through, the
- 23:14open comes in, volatility kicks price
- 23:16lower, and that New York session expands
- 23:19to the downside. On the 7-hour, we see
- 23:21that 18 candle reversal, 1:00 candle
- 23:24confirmation by breaking away from this
- 23:26high, and then the 8:00 candle expands
- 23:29to the downside in that continuation,
- 23:31forming the majority of that daily
- 23:33range. Into this third example, we have
- 23:35a relevant high off the daily time
- 23:37frame, a previous day which manipulated
- 23:40that high, closed back down into the
- 23:42range. That means the following day I
- 23:44want to see a continuation, price
- 23:46expanding away from this high. And just
- 23:49like each of these examples, I have a
- 23:51bias, but I need confirmation of that
- 23:54before I actually execute. Daily profile
- 23:56is this bridge between the idea and you
- 23:58actually taking the trade. Here in this
- 24:01daily profile development, we're seeing
- 24:02something a little bit different. We are
- 24:04looking to trade away from this high,
- 24:07and we're going to hold onto that
- 24:08framework and that bias, but we look off
- 24:10the highs inside of this daily profile,
- 24:12the 18 candle established a high, but
- 24:15the 1:00 candle neither formed a new
- 24:17reversal and reversed off of it or broke
- 24:20away from that 18 candle high. Instead,
- 24:22it remained neutral and formed a failure
- 24:25swing to that intraday high. That means
- 24:28we are going to go into this 8:00 candle
- 24:30demanding that price first runs that
- 24:33out, and then we can expand to the
- 24:35downside. So, we're going to view and
- 24:36filter out price to only focus on this
- 24:39intraday high. Price eventually made
- 24:41this opposing run during the New York
- 24:43session up into that 18 candle high,
- 24:45forming a new high of day, and then we
- 24:48get the sequence where I'm confirming
- 24:50the reversal using these up close
- 24:52candles paired with the open, and then
- 24:55we have a continuation signature. That's
- 24:57where I'm looking to position for that
- 24:59move understanding once price runs out
- 25:02the intraday high, we are in that one
- 25:04defined daily profile. Now I just need
- 25:06my entry sequence to get on side. This
- 25:09is where you can see on the 7-hour in
- 25:11the 18 and 1:00 candle, there was no
- 25:14valid high of day established and we
- 25:16didn't go into this New York session
- 25:18with any bearish daily profile, meaning
- 25:20we knew exactly what we need to focus on
- 25:22and demand from the market inside of the
- 25:24New York session and that is trading up
- 25:27into that intraday high forming an 8:00
- 25:29candle reversal, getting our entry
- 25:31sequence and positioning for that
- 25:33expansion for the day. And this is
- 25:35something important to touch on
- 25:36especially with an example like this. If
- 25:38we're in this profile and we are
- 25:40demanding price to run out that intraday
- 25:42high first before we can look to trade
- 25:45the downside because we want to align
- 25:47that bearish daily profile. If the
- 25:49market trades up but fails to take that
- 25:51high and then breaks down, you don't
- 25:54have a trade. That is not alignment.
- 25:56We're not going to chase these
- 25:57opportunities. We want to get our daily
- 25:59profile, demand what we need from the
- 26:01market because we know in this New York
- 26:03session it is very specific of what
- 26:05we're looking for. We either are
- 26:07provided it and are executing that trade
- 26:10or it's not there or our bias is
- 26:12invalidated and we let the day go. If
- 26:14you take away anything from this video,
- 26:16it's that daily profiles as a
- 26:17confirmation step in between bias and
- 26:20entries is to move you away from
- 26:21predicting the market and into a
- 26:23structured step-by-step process, one
- 26:26that makes you think and act like a
- 26:28trader. So with that said, I hope you
- 26:30found this video valuable and I will see
- 26:32you in the next one.
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