How I Frame Orderflow Trades Using Premium and Discount — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:00All right, what's up? It's Thrax. We are
- 0:01back for another video. And in this
- 0:03video, I'm going to be talking about one
- 0:05of the most important things in my
- 0:07trading that I use every single day when
- 0:10I get on the charts, and it's premium
- 0:11and discount. Now, we're going to talk
- 0:14about premium and discount today through
- 0:16auction market theory. Now, some context
- 0:18is I know that most traders are actually
- 0:20going to recognize premium and discount
- 0:22through ICT content and that that it
- 0:25basically made it popular as a concept.
- 0:27I get it. In this video, I'm not here to
- 0:31debate who invented it or taught it. I'm
- 0:34just going to explain essentially what
- 0:36it represents, and we're going to view
- 0:38it through auction theory and order
- 0:40flow. And then I'm going to talk about
- 0:42some tools that I use and how I actually
- 0:44use it on a day-to-day basis. And then
- 0:46we'll take a look at the charts so you
- 0:48can get a better idea on how I use it in
- 0:50my trading. And maybe it can help you.
- 0:52So, the auction market theory
- 0:53foundation,
- 0:55the idea is essentially this. Markets
- 0:57are auctions. So what is the market's
- 1:00job? Well, the market's job is to
- 1:02facilitate trade, to discover value, and
- 1:05then to incentivize participation when
- 1:07imbalance occurs. So price moves to
- 1:10essentially solve imbalance. Really in
- 1:12the market, we have two major
- 1:17states of the market. We have a balanced
- 1:19market and we have an imbalanced market.
- 1:21So what is a balanced market? Well,
- 1:24balance markets are essentially where
- 1:25you see price with an established high
- 1:27and established low and we're
- 1:29essentially rotating in between uh the
- 1:31mean. It's where we have an agreement on
- 1:33value where we have that rotational
- 1:36behavior and then you'll often notice
- 1:38that there is large accumulation of
- 1:40volume in these areas. Now, an imbalance
- 1:43is different than a balance in the sense
- 1:45where there is a disagreement on price.
- 1:48Either there are more buyers than
- 1:50sellers or there are more sellers than
- 1:52buyers. they are not equal. They do not
- 1:54agree on price and that is what actually
- 1:56causes price to move or displace. So in
- 1:59imbalances we have directional movement
- 2:01and then oftent times price is then
- 2:03searching for liquidity. Now premium and
- 2:06discount only make sense once a balance
- 2:10exists once there is an established
- 2:12range. So what is actually an
- 2:14established range? Well, an established
- 2:17range is going to form when value is
- 2:18accepted, when the extremes of that
- 2:20range are defended, and then volume
- 2:22builds near the middle. So, this range
- 2:24becomes reference for relative value.
- 2:26What you can look for to make things
- 2:27easy are significant swing points. I'm
- 2:30not talking about every little single
- 2:32swing point on the market when you're
- 2:34looking um and it is slightly relative
- 2:36to time frame as well. Um but in this
- 2:39case, if we were to open up this chart,
- 2:41this is a five-minute chart on NQ. And
- 2:44where are the most significant swing
- 2:46points um for us to establish the range?
- 2:48Well, it's going to be this swing low
- 2:51and this swing high. So, we mark out the
- 2:53high of the range, the low of the range,
- 2:55and then we have the middle of the
- 2:57range. And then this now becomes price
- 2:59trading within the range. Within the
- 3:01high, within the low. Now, when we're
- 3:04talking about ranges, we need to talk
- 3:05about value and fair value. A lot of
- 3:09traders may be familiar with this. um
- 3:11it's expressed through volume profiles.
- 3:14Now value the way to understand this
- 3:16within the range is this is where
- 3:18business was actually conducted. So this
- 3:21is going to show up as PC you know the
- 3:23value area we have value area high and
- 3:26value area low and then we have
- 3:29composite distribution throughout this
- 3:30area. So value is not an opinion um it
- 3:34is volume. So we can notice where the
- 3:36value area is just by throwing on a
- 3:39volume profile. That's probably the
- 3:40easiest way to do it. Now, we need to
- 3:43define where's premium and discount
- 3:45because we know where the value area is
- 3:47at. Well, where's premium and discount?
- 3:49Once the range is defined and we have
- 3:51the value area. Now, anything above
- 3:53value is going to be premium and
- 3:56anything below value is going to be
- 3:58discount. Now, we do have a 50% of value
- 4:02area. And why does this exist? Well, the
- 4:0450% level is going to approximate
- 4:07balance. It's going to represent mean
- 4:09reversion tendencies where price is
- 4:11going to rotate between here and it's
- 4:13often going to align with value metrics.
- 4:16So this concept itself really exists
- 4:19across WOFF auction theory market and
- 4:22volume profile and of course ICT
- 4:25concepts. Now you don't necessarily need
- 4:27the volume profile. You can still
- 4:30identify premium and discount without a
- 4:32volume profile but it just helps us
- 4:33establish where the value area is. Now
- 4:36something that's important to note is
- 4:38premium and discount is context. Premium
- 4:41and discount is not a buy signal. It is
- 4:43not a sell signal and is not a
- 4:45prediction of price. It is just a
- 4:47location filter. We just have to
- 4:49understand where are we on the charts.
- 4:52Where are we relative to value and it's
- 4:55it can be used basically as a risk
- 4:57compression tool. If I want the best
- 4:59risk-to-reward
- 5:01for a trade, I should be looking for
- 5:04longs and discount and shorts and
- 5:06premium. And it's a way to avoid chasing
- 5:08price. In order flow, there is
- 5:11responsive and initiative order flow. So
- 5:14in discount, what we're looking for is
- 5:16we're looking for responsive buyers.
- 5:18We're looking for sellers to get
- 5:19absorbed, for sellers to fail a
- 5:21continuation, or for pressure or delta
- 5:24flips to bring it back into the range or
- 5:26to the equilibrium or even back into
- 5:28premium. In premium, we're essentially
- 5:31looking for the same thing on the other
- 5:33side. We're looking for responsive
- 5:35sellers. We're looking for offer
- 5:36stacking or buyers making failed
- 5:39breakouts or trapped initiative buyers.
- 5:41So, what is that? So, it's basically
- 5:43where we're in the premium of an area
- 5:45and buyers are stepping in trying to
- 5:47push price higher and they fail. Now,
- 5:49those buyers become trapped and then we
- 5:51can potentially turn around. Now, let's
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- 6:55code match. Now let's get back into the
- 6:57video. The way that I use discount and
- 7:00premium is I use FIBS. Now, I use the
- 7:03Fibonacci retracement tool and it's how
- 7:07I define premium and discount. Everyone
- 7:09has different levels. You know, some
- 7:11people have different levels than me.
- 7:13That's fine. The levels that I
- 7:15personally use on my range fib is the
- 7:180.5, the 0.62,
- 7:22the 705,
- 7:24788, the 886, and the 1.1. Now the logic
- 7:28behind this is that the 0.5 or the
- 7:31middle line or the equilibrium whatever
- 7:33you want to call it that's going to mark
- 7:35the transition between premium and
- 7:37discount territory. Now what I'm really
- 7:40focusing on when I am looking at these
- 7:42fibs is I am focusing on the area
- 7:45between the 705 to the 886.
- 7:48This is really the sweet spot for me.
- 7:50This is where I like to focus on
- 7:51reversals or look for responsive
- 7:53behavior as long as the higher time
- 7:55frame context is going to align. If I'm
- 7:58just drawing out range fibs everywhere
- 8:00and totally ignoring higher time frame
- 8:02context, then it does not matter. We
- 8:05need to understand on a daily, on a 4
- 8:08hour, weekly, monthly, whatever higher
- 8:10time frames we just have to understand
- 8:13where is price going on a higher time
- 8:15frame. If for example we look at the
- 8:18daily, the 4 hour, the 1 hour and they
- 8:20are all bearish. Okay, then we are more
- 8:24likely to be looking on a smaller time
- 8:27frame for areas in premium of ranges to
- 8:31continue that bearish momentum further
- 8:34down. You wouldn't necessarily be
- 8:36bearish on higher time frames and then
- 8:38be looking for looking for discount all
- 8:40the time trying to just buy every single
- 8:42discount. you're just going to get
- 8:43wrecked because you're ignoring higher
- 8:45time frame context essentially. One of
- 8:48the most important rules though when it
- 8:49comes to these fib levels is the 886 is
- 8:52one of the most important levels for me.
- 8:53And the reason why is because if price
- 8:56actually closes beyond the 886 level, I
- 8:59essentially treat that range or that
- 9:01area as invalidated and a touch of the
- 9:041.1 which is past the swing high or past
- 9:07the swing low is likely at that point
- 9:10because at that point I'm essentially
- 9:13expecting a continuation of momentum and
- 9:15I'm not looking for a reversal anymore.
- 9:18So these levels are just defining
- 9:20location. These are not entries. This
- 9:22doesn't mean that you draw a fib out on
- 9:24your chart and then anytime price
- 9:26touches into a 705 or a 788 or an 886
- 9:30that you're just going to enter there.
- 9:32So let's say that we have our value
- 9:34area, we have our premium and we have
- 9:37our discount. Well, typically what'll
- 9:40usually happen is the 705 to the 886
- 9:44will either be in premium or discount.
- 9:46Now if we draw it from swing low to
- 9:48swing high, we have our zone here in
- 9:50discount. this area between 705 and 886.
- 9:54If we go from swing high to swing low,
- 9:57now we have our range here where we have
- 9:59705 to 886 and it's sitting in premium.
- 10:02Even without the volume profile, we can
- 10:05still do the same thing and we get our
- 10:06areas. So then it makes it a little bit
- 10:09smaller. We're looking in this area as
- 10:11premium. We're looking in this area as
- 10:13discount. So if you ever look at my
- 10:15charts and you see fibs like this on my
- 10:17chart, now usually I don't draw out all
- 10:19the rest of this stuff. This is just to
- 10:21explain it, but I'll usually only draw
- 10:23the fibs. When I draw the fibs, I
- 10:26usually don't draw fibs on both sides.
- 10:29And the reason why is because I usually
- 10:30have a bias on which way we're going.
- 10:32So, if my bias is bearish, let's say in
- 10:35this scenario, we had a large drop, my
- 10:38idea for how the market is going to
- 10:40react off of that is we're going to
- 10:42rebalance higher before we continue our
- 10:44move down. Then, I probably wouldn't be
- 10:46drawing a discount zone. I'd probably
- 10:48only go from swing high to swing low and
- 10:51then I'd be looking for premium at
- 10:52another entry or swing high to swing
- 10:54low. Looking for premium at another
- 10:56entry to go lower. When you do see them
- 10:58on my chart, if I ever post it in like
- 11:00my daily outlooks or you see it when I'm
- 11:02live trading or whatever, um it's not
- 11:05very often where I'm going to be drawing
- 11:07them on both sides unless we have been
- 11:09ranging for a very long time and we're
- 11:11kind of in the middle of a larger time
- 11:12frame um consolidation area. But more
- 11:16often than not, when I'm drawing it on
- 11:17like a five minute time frame or a 15
- 11:19minute time frame, I'm usually just
- 11:21drawing one side because I don't want to
- 11:23confuse myself. Now, there is something
- 11:25else that I actually use when locating
- 11:29where I where am I actually looking for
- 11:31trades in premium or in discount. And
- 11:35the reason for that before I tell you
- 11:36what it is is just because sometimes if
- 11:39the range is large enough, the area
- 11:42between the 705 and the 886 can it could
- 11:45be massive. Like it could be 100 points,
- 11:48200 points. It can be huge. And so we
- 11:52can't just like give ourselves a 100
- 11:54point area. We we got to try and narrow
- 11:57it down a little bit and focus in a
- 11:59little bit. And so what I use for that
- 12:01is I use something called the darkpool
- 12:03decoder. It's an indicator that I have
- 12:06and it essentially will draw out a zone
- 12:09inside of premium or discount. So the
- 12:12purpose of it is just to find a focus
- 12:14zone inside of that 705 to 886 region.
- 12:18And then it narrows the attention when
- 12:21we're looking at location or where that
- 12:23responsive order flow or initiative
- 12:25order flow should happen and we're
- 12:27looking in a smaller area. So the way
- 12:30that I actually use it is I will and
- 12:32this is the darkpool decoder. The way
- 12:35that I actually use it is I will mark
- 12:37out a swing low to a swing high and it
- 12:40will fall in between 886 and 705. Let's
- 12:43say we're somewhere over here on price.
- 12:45I notice that we are now establishing a
- 12:48range. We've put in a significant swing
- 12:50low and a significant swing high. Well,
- 12:52I am going to mark out my fib. I'm going
- 12:55to understand where value area is at.
- 12:57And then I'm going to use this to draw
- 12:59out a zone. Now, you don't need this,
- 13:01but I love it. So, I use it. And what
- 13:04I'm looking at is I'm looking at this
- 13:06zone. Now, this zone technically has
- 13:07three levels to it. The first level is
- 13:09level one. This is level two. And this
- 13:12is level three. I'm looking for reaction
- 13:14out of the out of this zone at any of
- 13:17the three levels. If price ends up
- 13:19closing through this zone on the time
- 13:22frame I'm looking at, usually like a
- 13:23five or a 15 minute or sometimes a 1
- 13:25hour, if price closes on the other side
- 13:28of the zone, it's invalidated. I'm no
- 13:30longer looking for a reversal. I'm
- 13:32shifting expectations towards a
- 13:34continuation lower past the zone, but
- 13:38I'm just trying to see if this area is
- 13:40going to hold. If this is my bias, now
- 13:43what I mentioned earlier is if my idea
- 13:47of price is for us to make a large move
- 13:50down, rebalance some of this move before
- 13:53we actually continue and make a new low,
- 13:55then I probably wouldn't be using it
- 13:58here because why would I be looking for
- 14:01longs when my bias is bearish? So then
- 14:05in a true scenario, what I would
- 14:06normally do is once we put in that
- 14:09significant swing high and we put in a
- 14:12significant swing low and I may draw it
- 14:15even if it gets down here and then if it
- 14:17doesn't reach it and we make a new low
- 14:18then I will extend it. Now what happens
- 14:20is now we have an area of premium where
- 14:24we can be watching as location reference
- 14:27to understand where might be a good idea
- 14:30to take shorts. And it's even better
- 14:32when it's above previous swing highs.
- 14:34It's above this swing high or if it's
- 14:37above this swing high. We're watching
- 14:39this area to see if sellers are going to
- 14:41essentially defend this and buyers are
- 14:43going to fail to break out. And we are
- 14:46in premium. It's a good area to look for
- 14:48shorts. If our bias is to continue lower
- 14:50to take the lows, one thing is that this
- 14:54tool itself does not predict price.
- 14:57Okay? The point of this is not to
- 14:58predict price. The point of the fibs is
- 15:00not to predict price. It's just to help
- 15:02with structure expectations. It's just
- 15:05to help with how far do I think are we
- 15:07going to dig back into this move before
- 15:10we continue. Something else that I
- 15:12actually use when it comes to premium
- 15:14and discount is I use a volume profile.
- 15:17What does a volume profile do for
- 15:20premium and discount? Well, it does a
- 15:22couple different things. One is it
- 15:24mainly adds confirmation. So on a volume
- 15:28profile, when you're determining premium
- 15:30and discount from an established range,
- 15:32it's going to show you acceptance at
- 15:34value, rejections at extremes, and
- 15:36failed auctions. So in high volume
- 15:38areas, we're going to see agreement or
- 15:40consolidation or even some chop. And
- 15:43then in low volume areas, we can see
- 15:45rejection or even fast movement straight
- 15:47through it. So, this just strengthens
- 15:50the premium and discount context because
- 15:52the way that I'm actually using this is
- 15:55every time we have an established range,
- 15:58the value area is going to be where the
- 16:00most volume's at. And more often than
- 16:03not, in that area where the most volume
- 16:05is at, you're going to find it's
- 16:07basically in the middle of the range.
- 16:09Once we start getting out of the value
- 16:11area, so if you can't see it, this
- 16:13middle line is basically the PC. This is
- 16:15value area high and this is value area
- 16:17low. So if above value area is premium
- 16:20and below value area is discount.
- 16:23Then something that I am looking at is
- 16:25I'm looking at low volume nodes. We have
- 16:27a low volume node here. We have a low
- 16:30volume node here. So what happens in
- 16:32this low volume node? Well, we bounce
- 16:35off of value area low. We extend past it
- 16:38into the low volume area and then we
- 16:40pump back up. Same thing happens up
- 16:42here. We bounce off of
- 16:44value area high and then we come up into
- 16:47the low volume node and we can't get
- 16:49past it and we end up rejecting back
- 16:50down. You can use like this type of
- 16:53volume profile because you can still see
- 16:55the low volume node here and then you
- 16:58know volume drops off here. But I don't
- 17:00like using these big blocky ones. I it's
- 17:03a lot easier to identify low volume
- 17:05nodes when you're using like a normal
- 17:07volume profile, not a [ __ ] shitty
- 17:09Trading View one. But this is good for
- 17:12for essentially determining value area
- 17:14high and value area low. So why does
- 17:17this matter for orderflow traders? Well,
- 17:20order flow essentially is just going to
- 17:21tell you who is active, who's defending,
- 17:24who's trapped, and then premium and
- 17:26discount is going to tell us where to
- 17:27narrow our focus. It's going to improve
- 17:30location in terms of making a trade, and
- 17:34then it's going to reduce overtrading. I
- 17:36mean, there's plenty of times where if
- 17:38you don't understand location, you can
- 17:41have a great entry, you can have the
- 17:43right idea on where we're actually going
- 17:45to in terms of draw next, but you just
- 17:48get stopped out or you entered a little
- 17:50too early or whatever.
- 17:53Understanding location when it comes to
- 17:55where you should actually be taking the
- 17:57trade is going to help tremendously.
- 18:01It's going to help you pick the right
- 18:02times. It's going to help you avoid
- 18:04overtrading. We realistically don't want
- 18:06to be trading the middle of a range. We
- 18:09want to be trading the extremes. Now, if
- 18:11you use orderflow and premium and
- 18:13discount together, then it's going to
- 18:15create cleaner execution, and you're
- 18:18going to understand where we actually
- 18:19are in relation to value. Now, when
- 18:22people use premium and discount, there
- 18:25are common mislications, and there's
- 18:28common misunderstandings. One of them is
- 18:30you just draw a bunch of fibs all over
- 18:32the place or you mark out premium and
- 18:34discount all over the place because you
- 18:37have so many different time frames. You
- 18:39have all this different [ __ ] You can
- 18:40mark out established ranges all over the
- 18:42place. And then what happens is people
- 18:44will just like blindly buy discount and
- 18:47they'll blindly sell premium, but
- 18:49they're ignoring close beyond
- 18:51invalidation levels. They're treating
- 18:53fibs or other zones they may have in
- 18:55premium or discount as predictive. These
- 18:57are context errors. They're not strategy
- 19:00failures. You just need to understand
- 19:03that if you're using premium and
- 19:05discount, it must be used with context
- 19:08of higher time frame alignment.
- 19:10Essentially, where are we going? You
- 19:13can't just mark out a one minute range
- 19:15on a one minute time. Like, you can't go
- 19:17on a one minute time frame, mark out a
- 19:19range, and then we look bullish on a one
- 19:22minute time frame. So, you're going to
- 19:24be buying up the the discount on a one
- 19:28minute time frame range when all of the
- 19:30other time frames, five, 15, 1 hour, 4
- 19:34hour, daily, we're all obviously going
- 19:36lower. The draw is lower. Why are you
- 19:38going to be buying one minute discounts?
- 19:40Doesn't make any sense. So, just make
- 19:42sure if you're drawing premium and
- 19:45discount, you zoom out a little bit. You
- 19:47zoom out first. you do top down analysis
- 19:50to understand where it is that we are
- 19:52actually going before you start just
- 19:54blindly buying or selling premium or
- 19:56discount. So the final takeaway before
- 19:59we hop on the charts is just that
- 20:01premium and discount is auction logic.
- 20:04It is relative value and it's just
- 20:06awareness of location. And it works
- 20:09best, at least for me, when it's
- 20:11combined with consistent measurement,
- 20:13meaning that you are drawing and
- 20:16determining premium and discount the
- 20:18same way every time. And if you combine
- 20:21it with volume and then once we actually
- 20:23enter into those areas, if you use
- 20:25orderflows confirmation for the actual
- 20:27entries or the trades and just
- 20:29understanding what it represents is
- 20:31going to make execution like way
- 20:34simpler. All right, so let's say that
- 20:36today, this is today by the way. So it's
- 20:39currently uh February 3rd, 2026.
- 20:43This is actually a perfect example of
- 20:46premium and discount. Why? Because here
- 20:49we are in this range on a higher time
- 20:52frame. We're bouncing back and forth.
- 20:54Okay, we go from discount to premium to
- 20:57discount to premium. Now, Sunday opens
- 21:00up. We push further into discount. Now,
- 21:02the idea is is that we're going to come
- 21:04back to the equilibrium and we're going
- 21:06to push into premium. Now, if our bias
- 21:08is bearish, then what are we going to
- 21:11do? Well, we're going to take a
- 21:12significant swing high and a significant
- 21:14swing low, which is going to be the top
- 21:16and the bottom. We're going to extend it
- 21:19to the right for where price is going to
- 21:22basically print
- 21:24and we're going to understand that we
- 21:26are watching this area.
- 21:29We're essentially watching this area.
- 21:31Okay, I'm going to change this to orange
- 21:33so it's easier to see. If price were to
- 21:36get past the 886 in this scenario where
- 21:38we're pumping, then we're probably going
- 21:41to come up here and hit the 1.1. What
- 21:44I'll do then, if you ever see my other
- 21:45charts, you may see boxes on it and not
- 21:47know where they're coming from. Well,
- 21:49this is where it's coming from. If we
- 21:50were to take the swing high to the swing
- 21:53low, and we now create a zone. Well, in
- 21:57this zone, this is essentially where in
- 22:00premium I'm looking for us to
- 22:02potentially turn around if my bias is
- 22:04that we're going to go lower. So this
- 22:07morning specifically when we were
- 22:09opening up, I knew that we were here and
- 22:12I knew that we made this large move up.
- 22:14So what was my bias for the day? Well,
- 22:17it was to go lower. Now my bias would
- 22:20have flipped if we got above this area
- 22:22and this area. Then I would have started
- 22:23looking for price to potentially go
- 22:25higher. Now time out. Let's say, oh
- 22:28well, you already know what happened
- 22:30this day. You just cherrypicked this
- 22:32[ __ ] Okay, fine. But this happens every
- 22:35single day and I'm going to prove it to
- 22:36you right now. So let's say let's do
- 22:39this. Let's go to replay mode. On replay
- 22:42mode, let's go back to a random day.
- 22:43Let's go to November 20th at midnight.
- 22:46Okay, here we are in November.
- 22:50What does it look like here? Well, it
- 22:52looks like we probably are going to go
- 22:53lower. Why? Because we have
- 22:57price coming up. We now make a lower
- 22:59high. Lower high. Lower high. It's I
- 23:02would I would be looking for us to
- 23:04basically come lower to take these lows.
- 23:06Okay. So that is on a one hour time
- 23:08frame what I would be looking at. This
- 23:10would be the draw. So let's determine
- 23:12where should we actually be looking for
- 23:14a trade. So in this scenario, where is
- 23:17our range? Well, I would be going from
- 23:19this significant swing high here to this
- 23:22swing low here. I'm going to extend this
- 23:24out. We're already a little bit in
- 23:27premium, but we want it to go further
- 23:29into premium. And then what I'll also do
- 23:31is I'll just take this. I'm going to
- 23:33mark out the swing high, swing low.
- 23:36We're going to draw our box and we're
- 23:38going to put it right here.
- 23:41And this is the location that I'm going
- 23:43to be looking for to go short. And when
- 23:46we do go short, where are we going to
- 23:48target? Well, we'll target right here.
- 23:52This will be our draw on liquidity.
- 23:53Let's play it out and let's see what
- 23:55happens. Now, in the event, because I
- 23:58don't know what's going to happen. And I
- 23:59just chose a random day. In the event
- 24:02that we move up here
- 24:04and then we get past the top of this
- 24:07zone and we get past 886, I'm no longer
- 24:10looking for us to go lower. I'm then
- 24:12looking for us to go higher and I'm
- 24:13shifting my expectation to a bullish
- 24:15bias. What I'm looking for though is
- 24:18once we do get in here, I'd be watching
- 24:20order flow to determine whether or not
- 24:22we're going to turn around.
- 24:24Now, sometimes we may never actually get
- 24:26up into the zone. Now in this case it
- 24:29played out kind of quickly. What did we
- 24:31do? Well, we came into premium in the
- 24:3662. We came into our zone at the first
- 24:39level and we dropped. We dropped down to
- 24:42uh the drawn liquidity that we had. Now
- 24:45you might be saying to yourself, well
- 24:47Thrax, you knew what was going to happen
- 24:49that day. Well, no I didn't. But just to
- 24:51prove a point, I'm gonna do it again. It
- 24:54literally happens every day. This is how
- 24:56I frame this is how I frame my bias for
- 24:59direction besides using just normal
- 25:01market structure because my bias at this
- 25:04point was that we were going lower. This
- 25:05is an obvious bare trend. Lower highs
- 25:08and lower lows. You don't have to be a
- 25:09genius to figure that one out. But this
- 25:12is how I frame my ideas every single
- 25:16morning. Now we're doing it on a oneh
- 25:17hour time frame, but it's how I frame
- 25:19ideas every morning on where I should
- 25:21actually be looking to take a trade. So
- 25:23you know what? Let's drop down to a
- 25:2415minute time frame and let's go choose
- 25:27a new day. We'll go back to October.
- 25:30We'll go to
- 25:33I don't know October. No, it's a
- 25:35Saturday. We'll go to Tuesday, October
- 25:3814th. Okay. So, here we are before we
- 25:41even start the day. And usually I draw
- 25:44these in the morning after London and
- 25:46Asia have already been established, but
- 25:48I'm just going to show you what happens
- 25:49basically all the time. Let's just say
- 25:51that we take this swing low to swing
- 25:52high. Okay, let's move it to the right
- 25:56so we know what's going to happen the
- 25:58next day. We're going to be watching
- 26:00this area here. Standard, we'll make it
- 26:04uh orange so it's easy to see. So, let
- 26:07me just draw it from right here to right
- 26:10here.
- 26:12So, in this scenario, I'm looking at
- 26:14this area. Okay. And then let's turn
- 26:17this off. So, heading into this day, if
- 26:21I were to be bullish, which I didn't
- 26:23even do any type of Let's go look for a
- 26:26second. Okay. Well, in my mind, yes, we
- 26:30did have this drop lower, but just for
- 26:33the sake of the video, let's just play
- 26:34out what happens in this area. Now, we
- 26:36can totally just be coming down way
- 26:38further than this, but I'm just going to
- 26:41uh play it out. So, let's say we start
- 26:43playing out the 15-minute. I'm not
- 26:44looking to take a long at all until we
- 26:47get into this area.
- 26:51Okay. So, what happened right here?
- 26:55Here we are in our established range. We
- 26:57have we have the high and we have the
- 27:00low. Now, I would also show you what it
- 27:03looks like on a volume profile, but I
- 27:06can't really do that right now because
- 27:07we're just on Trading View and their
- 27:08volume profile kind of sucks. We're just
- 27:11going to talk about the fibs and the and
- 27:12the zones. But what what I would be
- 27:15doing in this scenario is we have the
- 27:17low and the high. So what happens if we
- 27:21are bullish? We think that price is
- 27:23going to potentially come and fill this
- 27:26gap which is what a new week opening gap
- 27:29and then potentially bounce and come
- 27:31back up. Then where are we looking?
- 27:33We're looking in this area to take a
- 27:35long or this area to take a long. If
- 27:38price gets below this box or below this
- 27:41886, then at that point, I would imagine
- 27:44that we're just going to continue to the
- 27:461.1. So, as price comes into here, we're
- 27:50on a 15minute time frame. If I'm
- 27:52watching this at 6:45, which is 15
- 27:55minutes after open, and I'm watching
- 27:58this happen, what am I looking at? Well,
- 28:01I'm looking at order flow. I'm seeing
- 28:03what's happening in this candle right
- 28:05here. I'm seeing what's happening when
- 28:06we got to these lows and I'm seeing what
- 28:08this next candle is going to do. Now,
- 28:11this is giving me context for location
- 28:12on where I should actually be looking to
- 28:14take a long position. We're in discount.
- 28:17We're in the area that I'm looking for.
- 28:19We touched into the 705. And now we can
- 28:22say the location is here. Let's look for
- 28:24confirmation to take it higher. Now, if
- 28:26you did that, well, great. You got a
- 28:29long and you probably made some money.
- 28:32Now, in the event that we came down
- 28:33here, we did a little bounce. I mean,
- 28:36you would be watching on order flow for
- 28:38confirmation. Again, you're not just
- 28:39going to take random trades because
- 28:41they're in this area. This is just
- 28:43giving you an idea for context. Okay?
- 28:46And again, people are going to say like,
- 28:49"Oh, you're cherry-picking these." I'm
- 28:51literally picking random days. It
- 28:53happens like every day. I do this every
- 28:55morning to determine where do I think
- 28:57we're going. And just so that you know
- 28:59I'm basically not full of [ __ ] Well,
- 29:02let's start marking some of these out.
- 29:04Okay, so let's say that we go from this
- 29:07swing low right here.
- 29:11Let's say we go from this swing low
- 29:12right here to this swing high. Well,
- 29:14where are we going to drop on this box?
- 29:16I don't know. Right there. Boom. Okay,
- 29:18let's draw out a fib. If we go from here
- 29:21to here, where are we? Where did we
- 29:23touch the 705? Okay. Well, if that's not
- 29:27random enough for you, let's go look for
- 29:28a different one. Let's look at this one.
- 29:31Okay, here we are. We have our range
- 29:33right here from here, this swing low to
- 29:35this swing high. Where do we touch into
- 29:37the 705 and 788? We're bullish. Our our
- 29:41bias is bullish. Okay. Well, what's
- 29:43going to happen when we go from swing
- 29:44low to swing high?
- 29:46It it it literally happens all the time.
- 29:49And this is a great way as long as your
- 29:52bias is correct.
- 29:55This is a great way to determine
- 29:59a good location to look for your
- 30:01reversals. A good location where you
- 30:04should actually be looking for the trend
- 30:06to then continue on that pullback. Now,
- 30:09again, you don't need this tool. It's
- 30:12great. It'll help you out, sure. But
- 30:13let's just imagine we don't have it.
- 30:15Okay.
- 30:17Now, let's say that we're just looking
- 30:19at this. Well, then we're just going to
- 30:22be looking at this this area. That's it.
- 30:25Happens all the time. To the downside,
- 30:27too. The point of this video is just to
- 30:30have you understand how I actually use
- 30:33premium and discount. I'm using it as a
- 30:36location filter to understand where it
- 30:38is that I should actually be looking to
- 30:39take trades. I do it every single day.
- 30:42And I don't draw them out on both sides.
- 30:44I'm not going to do this and this
- 30:47because if my bias on a higher time
- 30:51frame is that we just swept liquidity,
- 30:54let's say, and now we're heading higher,
- 30:55why am I going to be looking for shorts?
- 30:58You just you wouldn't do that. It
- 31:00wouldn't make sense. Just go with the
- 31:01higher time frame bias. Find your
- 31:03discount areas, find your premium areas,
- 31:06and then just understand where you
- 31:08should actually be taking the trade. If
- 31:10you do that, then you use Orderflow's
- 31:12confirmation to actually take entries on
- 31:15smaller time frames,
- 31:17you're going to find that it really
- 31:20helps that it really helps out. So, I do
- 31:24have a um PDF that I created that talks
- 31:28all about this and how I actually look
- 31:30at the market. Not just entries, it's
- 31:33not about entries. It's about
- 31:34understanding how I actually look at the
- 31:36market. I made a PDF. It's like 60 pages
- 31:38long. I spent a lot of time on it. I
- 31:41think it has great information on it. If
- 31:43you ever want to check it out, it's
- 31:45free. You can literally click the link
- 31:47in the description and download it or
- 31:49you can join the Discord and the Discord
- 31:51has it in the education section. Yeah,
- 31:53that's it. I literally do this every day
- 31:55and I just thought it would be a good
- 31:56idea to make a video on it. So hopefully
- 31:58it might help somebody. So I'll catch
- 32:00you guys next time I make a video and
- 32:02hopefully we'll talk about something
- 32:03else that is interesting or important in
- 32:06my trading. Peace.
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