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How I Frame Orderflow Trades Using Premium and Discount — Transcript

by Christopher Creamer | Orderflow Trader · 5,919 words · 817 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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  1. 0:00All right, what's up? It's Thrax. We are
  2. 0:01back for another video. And in this
  3. 0:03video, I'm going to be talking about one
  4. 0:05of the most important things in my
  5. 0:07trading that I use every single day when
  6. 0:10I get on the charts, and it's premium
  7. 0:11and discount. Now, we're going to talk
  8. 0:14about premium and discount today through
  9. 0:16auction market theory. Now, some context
  10. 0:18is I know that most traders are actually
  11. 0:20going to recognize premium and discount
  12. 0:22through ICT content and that that it
  13. 0:25basically made it popular as a concept.
  14. 0:27I get it. In this video, I'm not here to
  15. 0:31debate who invented it or taught it. I'm
  16. 0:34just going to explain essentially what
  17. 0:36it represents, and we're going to view
  18. 0:38it through auction theory and order
  19. 0:40flow. And then I'm going to talk about
  20. 0:42some tools that I use and how I actually
  21. 0:44use it on a day-to-day basis. And then
  22. 0:46we'll take a look at the charts so you
  23. 0:48can get a better idea on how I use it in
  24. 0:50my trading. And maybe it can help you.
  25. 0:52So, the auction market theory
  26. 0:53foundation,
  27. 0:55the idea is essentially this. Markets
  28. 0:57are auctions. So what is the market's
  29. 1:00job? Well, the market's job is to
  30. 1:02facilitate trade, to discover value, and
  31. 1:05then to incentivize participation when
  32. 1:07imbalance occurs. So price moves to
  33. 1:10essentially solve imbalance. Really in
  34. 1:12the market, we have two major
  35. 1:17states of the market. We have a balanced
  36. 1:19market and we have an imbalanced market.
  37. 1:21So what is a balanced market? Well,
  38. 1:24balance markets are essentially where
  39. 1:25you see price with an established high
  40. 1:27and established low and we're
  41. 1:29essentially rotating in between uh the
  42. 1:31mean. It's where we have an agreement on
  43. 1:33value where we have that rotational
  44. 1:36behavior and then you'll often notice
  45. 1:38that there is large accumulation of
  46. 1:40volume in these areas. Now, an imbalance
  47. 1:43is different than a balance in the sense
  48. 1:45where there is a disagreement on price.
  49. 1:48Either there are more buyers than
  50. 1:50sellers or there are more sellers than
  51. 1:52buyers. they are not equal. They do not
  52. 1:54agree on price and that is what actually
  53. 1:56causes price to move or displace. So in
  54. 1:59imbalances we have directional movement
  55. 2:01and then oftent times price is then
  56. 2:03searching for liquidity. Now premium and
  57. 2:06discount only make sense once a balance
  58. 2:10exists once there is an established
  59. 2:12range. So what is actually an
  60. 2:14established range? Well, an established
  61. 2:17range is going to form when value is
  62. 2:18accepted, when the extremes of that
  63. 2:20range are defended, and then volume
  64. 2:22builds near the middle. So, this range
  65. 2:24becomes reference for relative value.
  66. 2:26What you can look for to make things
  67. 2:27easy are significant swing points. I'm
  68. 2:30not talking about every little single
  69. 2:32swing point on the market when you're
  70. 2:34looking um and it is slightly relative
  71. 2:36to time frame as well. Um but in this
  72. 2:39case, if we were to open up this chart,
  73. 2:41this is a five-minute chart on NQ. And
  74. 2:44where are the most significant swing
  75. 2:46points um for us to establish the range?
  76. 2:48Well, it's going to be this swing low
  77. 2:51and this swing high. So, we mark out the
  78. 2:53high of the range, the low of the range,
  79. 2:55and then we have the middle of the
  80. 2:57range. And then this now becomes price
  81. 2:59trading within the range. Within the
  82. 3:01high, within the low. Now, when we're
  83. 3:04talking about ranges, we need to talk
  84. 3:05about value and fair value. A lot of
  85. 3:09traders may be familiar with this. um
  86. 3:11it's expressed through volume profiles.
  87. 3:14Now value the way to understand this
  88. 3:16within the range is this is where
  89. 3:18business was actually conducted. So this
  90. 3:21is going to show up as PC you know the
  91. 3:23value area we have value area high and
  92. 3:26value area low and then we have
  93. 3:29composite distribution throughout this
  94. 3:30area. So value is not an opinion um it
  95. 3:34is volume. So we can notice where the
  96. 3:36value area is just by throwing on a
  97. 3:39volume profile. That's probably the
  98. 3:40easiest way to do it. Now, we need to
  99. 3:43define where's premium and discount
  100. 3:45because we know where the value area is
  101. 3:47at. Well, where's premium and discount?
  102. 3:49Once the range is defined and we have
  103. 3:51the value area. Now, anything above
  104. 3:53value is going to be premium and
  105. 3:56anything below value is going to be
  106. 3:58discount. Now, we do have a 50% of value
  107. 4:02area. And why does this exist? Well, the
  108. 4:0450% level is going to approximate
  109. 4:07balance. It's going to represent mean
  110. 4:09reversion tendencies where price is
  111. 4:11going to rotate between here and it's
  112. 4:13often going to align with value metrics.
  113. 4:16So this concept itself really exists
  114. 4:19across WOFF auction theory market and
  115. 4:22volume profile and of course ICT
  116. 4:25concepts. Now you don't necessarily need
  117. 4:27the volume profile. You can still
  118. 4:30identify premium and discount without a
  119. 4:32volume profile but it just helps us
  120. 4:33establish where the value area is. Now
  121. 4:36something that's important to note is
  122. 4:38premium and discount is context. Premium
  123. 4:41and discount is not a buy signal. It is
  124. 4:43not a sell signal and is not a
  125. 4:45prediction of price. It is just a
  126. 4:47location filter. We just have to
  127. 4:49understand where are we on the charts.
  128. 4:52Where are we relative to value and it's
  129. 4:55it can be used basically as a risk
  130. 4:57compression tool. If I want the best
  131. 4:59risk-to-reward
  132. 5:01for a trade, I should be looking for
  133. 5:04longs and discount and shorts and
  134. 5:06premium. And it's a way to avoid chasing
  135. 5:08price. In order flow, there is
  136. 5:11responsive and initiative order flow. So
  137. 5:14in discount, what we're looking for is
  138. 5:16we're looking for responsive buyers.
  139. 5:18We're looking for sellers to get
  140. 5:19absorbed, for sellers to fail a
  141. 5:21continuation, or for pressure or delta
  142. 5:24flips to bring it back into the range or
  143. 5:26to the equilibrium or even back into
  144. 5:28premium. In premium, we're essentially
  145. 5:31looking for the same thing on the other
  146. 5:33side. We're looking for responsive
  147. 5:35sellers. We're looking for offer
  148. 5:36stacking or buyers making failed
  149. 5:39breakouts or trapped initiative buyers.
  150. 5:41So, what is that? So, it's basically
  151. 5:43where we're in the premium of an area
  152. 5:45and buyers are stepping in trying to
  153. 5:47push price higher and they fail. Now,
  154. 5:49those buyers become trapped and then we
  155. 5:51can potentially turn around. Now, let's
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  188. 6:55code match. Now let's get back into the
  189. 6:57video. The way that I use discount and
  190. 7:00premium is I use FIBS. Now, I use the
  191. 7:03Fibonacci retracement tool and it's how
  192. 7:07I define premium and discount. Everyone
  193. 7:09has different levels. You know, some
  194. 7:11people have different levels than me.
  195. 7:13That's fine. The levels that I
  196. 7:15personally use on my range fib is the
  197. 7:180.5, the 0.62,
  198. 7:22the 705,
  199. 7:24788, the 886, and the 1.1. Now the logic
  200. 7:28behind this is that the 0.5 or the
  201. 7:31middle line or the equilibrium whatever
  202. 7:33you want to call it that's going to mark
  203. 7:35the transition between premium and
  204. 7:37discount territory. Now what I'm really
  205. 7:40focusing on when I am looking at these
  206. 7:42fibs is I am focusing on the area
  207. 7:45between the 705 to the 886.
  208. 7:48This is really the sweet spot for me.
  209. 7:50This is where I like to focus on
  210. 7:51reversals or look for responsive
  211. 7:53behavior as long as the higher time
  212. 7:55frame context is going to align. If I'm
  213. 7:58just drawing out range fibs everywhere
  214. 8:00and totally ignoring higher time frame
  215. 8:02context, then it does not matter. We
  216. 8:05need to understand on a daily, on a 4
  217. 8:08hour, weekly, monthly, whatever higher
  218. 8:10time frames we just have to understand
  219. 8:13where is price going on a higher time
  220. 8:15frame. If for example we look at the
  221. 8:18daily, the 4 hour, the 1 hour and they
  222. 8:20are all bearish. Okay, then we are more
  223. 8:24likely to be looking on a smaller time
  224. 8:27frame for areas in premium of ranges to
  225. 8:31continue that bearish momentum further
  226. 8:34down. You wouldn't necessarily be
  227. 8:36bearish on higher time frames and then
  228. 8:38be looking for looking for discount all
  229. 8:40the time trying to just buy every single
  230. 8:42discount. you're just going to get
  231. 8:43wrecked because you're ignoring higher
  232. 8:45time frame context essentially. One of
  233. 8:48the most important rules though when it
  234. 8:49comes to these fib levels is the 886 is
  235. 8:52one of the most important levels for me.
  236. 8:53And the reason why is because if price
  237. 8:56actually closes beyond the 886 level, I
  238. 8:59essentially treat that range or that
  239. 9:01area as invalidated and a touch of the
  240. 9:041.1 which is past the swing high or past
  241. 9:07the swing low is likely at that point
  242. 9:10because at that point I'm essentially
  243. 9:13expecting a continuation of momentum and
  244. 9:15I'm not looking for a reversal anymore.
  245. 9:18So these levels are just defining
  246. 9:20location. These are not entries. This
  247. 9:22doesn't mean that you draw a fib out on
  248. 9:24your chart and then anytime price
  249. 9:26touches into a 705 or a 788 or an 886
  250. 9:30that you're just going to enter there.
  251. 9:32So let's say that we have our value
  252. 9:34area, we have our premium and we have
  253. 9:37our discount. Well, typically what'll
  254. 9:40usually happen is the 705 to the 886
  255. 9:44will either be in premium or discount.
  256. 9:46Now if we draw it from swing low to
  257. 9:48swing high, we have our zone here in
  258. 9:50discount. this area between 705 and 886.
  259. 9:54If we go from swing high to swing low,
  260. 9:57now we have our range here where we have
  261. 9:59705 to 886 and it's sitting in premium.
  262. 10:02Even without the volume profile, we can
  263. 10:05still do the same thing and we get our
  264. 10:06areas. So then it makes it a little bit
  265. 10:09smaller. We're looking in this area as
  266. 10:11premium. We're looking in this area as
  267. 10:13discount. So if you ever look at my
  268. 10:15charts and you see fibs like this on my
  269. 10:17chart, now usually I don't draw out all
  270. 10:19the rest of this stuff. This is just to
  271. 10:21explain it, but I'll usually only draw
  272. 10:23the fibs. When I draw the fibs, I
  273. 10:26usually don't draw fibs on both sides.
  274. 10:29And the reason why is because I usually
  275. 10:30have a bias on which way we're going.
  276. 10:32So, if my bias is bearish, let's say in
  277. 10:35this scenario, we had a large drop, my
  278. 10:38idea for how the market is going to
  279. 10:40react off of that is we're going to
  280. 10:42rebalance higher before we continue our
  281. 10:44move down. Then, I probably wouldn't be
  282. 10:46drawing a discount zone. I'd probably
  283. 10:48only go from swing high to swing low and
  284. 10:51then I'd be looking for premium at
  285. 10:52another entry or swing high to swing
  286. 10:54low. Looking for premium at another
  287. 10:56entry to go lower. When you do see them
  288. 10:58on my chart, if I ever post it in like
  289. 11:00my daily outlooks or you see it when I'm
  290. 11:02live trading or whatever, um it's not
  291. 11:05very often where I'm going to be drawing
  292. 11:07them on both sides unless we have been
  293. 11:09ranging for a very long time and we're
  294. 11:11kind of in the middle of a larger time
  295. 11:12frame um consolidation area. But more
  296. 11:16often than not, when I'm drawing it on
  297. 11:17like a five minute time frame or a 15
  298. 11:19minute time frame, I'm usually just
  299. 11:21drawing one side because I don't want to
  300. 11:23confuse myself. Now, there is something
  301. 11:25else that I actually use when locating
  302. 11:29where I where am I actually looking for
  303. 11:31trades in premium or in discount. And
  304. 11:35the reason for that before I tell you
  305. 11:36what it is is just because sometimes if
  306. 11:39the range is large enough, the area
  307. 11:42between the 705 and the 886 can it could
  308. 11:45be massive. Like it could be 100 points,
  309. 11:48200 points. It can be huge. And so we
  310. 11:52can't just like give ourselves a 100
  311. 11:54point area. We we got to try and narrow
  312. 11:57it down a little bit and focus in a
  313. 11:59little bit. And so what I use for that
  314. 12:01is I use something called the darkpool
  315. 12:03decoder. It's an indicator that I have
  316. 12:06and it essentially will draw out a zone
  317. 12:09inside of premium or discount. So the
  318. 12:12purpose of it is just to find a focus
  319. 12:14zone inside of that 705 to 886 region.
  320. 12:18And then it narrows the attention when
  321. 12:21we're looking at location or where that
  322. 12:23responsive order flow or initiative
  323. 12:25order flow should happen and we're
  324. 12:27looking in a smaller area. So the way
  325. 12:30that I actually use it is I will and
  326. 12:32this is the darkpool decoder. The way
  327. 12:35that I actually use it is I will mark
  328. 12:37out a swing low to a swing high and it
  329. 12:40will fall in between 886 and 705. Let's
  330. 12:43say we're somewhere over here on price.
  331. 12:45I notice that we are now establishing a
  332. 12:48range. We've put in a significant swing
  333. 12:50low and a significant swing high. Well,
  334. 12:52I am going to mark out my fib. I'm going
  335. 12:55to understand where value area is at.
  336. 12:57And then I'm going to use this to draw
  337. 12:59out a zone. Now, you don't need this,
  338. 13:01but I love it. So, I use it. And what
  339. 13:04I'm looking at is I'm looking at this
  340. 13:06zone. Now, this zone technically has
  341. 13:07three levels to it. The first level is
  342. 13:09level one. This is level two. And this
  343. 13:12is level three. I'm looking for reaction
  344. 13:14out of the out of this zone at any of
  345. 13:17the three levels. If price ends up
  346. 13:19closing through this zone on the time
  347. 13:22frame I'm looking at, usually like a
  348. 13:23five or a 15 minute or sometimes a 1
  349. 13:25hour, if price closes on the other side
  350. 13:28of the zone, it's invalidated. I'm no
  351. 13:30longer looking for a reversal. I'm
  352. 13:32shifting expectations towards a
  353. 13:34continuation lower past the zone, but
  354. 13:38I'm just trying to see if this area is
  355. 13:40going to hold. If this is my bias, now
  356. 13:43what I mentioned earlier is if my idea
  357. 13:47of price is for us to make a large move
  358. 13:50down, rebalance some of this move before
  359. 13:53we actually continue and make a new low,
  360. 13:55then I probably wouldn't be using it
  361. 13:58here because why would I be looking for
  362. 14:01longs when my bias is bearish? So then
  363. 14:05in a true scenario, what I would
  364. 14:06normally do is once we put in that
  365. 14:09significant swing high and we put in a
  366. 14:12significant swing low and I may draw it
  367. 14:15even if it gets down here and then if it
  368. 14:17doesn't reach it and we make a new low
  369. 14:18then I will extend it. Now what happens
  370. 14:20is now we have an area of premium where
  371. 14:24we can be watching as location reference
  372. 14:27to understand where might be a good idea
  373. 14:30to take shorts. And it's even better
  374. 14:32when it's above previous swing highs.
  375. 14:34It's above this swing high or if it's
  376. 14:37above this swing high. We're watching
  377. 14:39this area to see if sellers are going to
  378. 14:41essentially defend this and buyers are
  379. 14:43going to fail to break out. And we are
  380. 14:46in premium. It's a good area to look for
  381. 14:48shorts. If our bias is to continue lower
  382. 14:50to take the lows, one thing is that this
  383. 14:54tool itself does not predict price.
  384. 14:57Okay? The point of this is not to
  385. 14:58predict price. The point of the fibs is
  386. 15:00not to predict price. It's just to help
  387. 15:02with structure expectations. It's just
  388. 15:05to help with how far do I think are we
  389. 15:07going to dig back into this move before
  390. 15:10we continue. Something else that I
  391. 15:12actually use when it comes to premium
  392. 15:14and discount is I use a volume profile.
  393. 15:17What does a volume profile do for
  394. 15:20premium and discount? Well, it does a
  395. 15:22couple different things. One is it
  396. 15:24mainly adds confirmation. So on a volume
  397. 15:28profile, when you're determining premium
  398. 15:30and discount from an established range,
  399. 15:32it's going to show you acceptance at
  400. 15:34value, rejections at extremes, and
  401. 15:36failed auctions. So in high volume
  402. 15:38areas, we're going to see agreement or
  403. 15:40consolidation or even some chop. And
  404. 15:43then in low volume areas, we can see
  405. 15:45rejection or even fast movement straight
  406. 15:47through it. So, this just strengthens
  407. 15:50the premium and discount context because
  408. 15:52the way that I'm actually using this is
  409. 15:55every time we have an established range,
  410. 15:58the value area is going to be where the
  411. 16:00most volume's at. And more often than
  412. 16:03not, in that area where the most volume
  413. 16:05is at, you're going to find it's
  414. 16:07basically in the middle of the range.
  415. 16:09Once we start getting out of the value
  416. 16:11area, so if you can't see it, this
  417. 16:13middle line is basically the PC. This is
  418. 16:15value area high and this is value area
  419. 16:17low. So if above value area is premium
  420. 16:20and below value area is discount.
  421. 16:23Then something that I am looking at is
  422. 16:25I'm looking at low volume nodes. We have
  423. 16:27a low volume node here. We have a low
  424. 16:30volume node here. So what happens in
  425. 16:32this low volume node? Well, we bounce
  426. 16:35off of value area low. We extend past it
  427. 16:38into the low volume area and then we
  428. 16:40pump back up. Same thing happens up
  429. 16:42here. We bounce off of
  430. 16:44value area high and then we come up into
  431. 16:47the low volume node and we can't get
  432. 16:49past it and we end up rejecting back
  433. 16:50down. You can use like this type of
  434. 16:53volume profile because you can still see
  435. 16:55the low volume node here and then you
  436. 16:58know volume drops off here. But I don't
  437. 17:00like using these big blocky ones. I it's
  438. 17:03a lot easier to identify low volume
  439. 17:05nodes when you're using like a normal
  440. 17:07volume profile, not a [ __ ] shitty
  441. 17:09Trading View one. But this is good for
  442. 17:12for essentially determining value area
  443. 17:14high and value area low. So why does
  444. 17:17this matter for orderflow traders? Well,
  445. 17:20order flow essentially is just going to
  446. 17:21tell you who is active, who's defending,
  447. 17:24who's trapped, and then premium and
  448. 17:26discount is going to tell us where to
  449. 17:27narrow our focus. It's going to improve
  450. 17:30location in terms of making a trade, and
  451. 17:34then it's going to reduce overtrading. I
  452. 17:36mean, there's plenty of times where if
  453. 17:38you don't understand location, you can
  454. 17:41have a great entry, you can have the
  455. 17:43right idea on where we're actually going
  456. 17:45to in terms of draw next, but you just
  457. 17:48get stopped out or you entered a little
  458. 17:50too early or whatever.
  459. 17:53Understanding location when it comes to
  460. 17:55where you should actually be taking the
  461. 17:57trade is going to help tremendously.
  462. 18:01It's going to help you pick the right
  463. 18:02times. It's going to help you avoid
  464. 18:04overtrading. We realistically don't want
  465. 18:06to be trading the middle of a range. We
  466. 18:09want to be trading the extremes. Now, if
  467. 18:11you use orderflow and premium and
  468. 18:13discount together, then it's going to
  469. 18:15create cleaner execution, and you're
  470. 18:18going to understand where we actually
  471. 18:19are in relation to value. Now, when
  472. 18:22people use premium and discount, there
  473. 18:25are common mislications, and there's
  474. 18:28common misunderstandings. One of them is
  475. 18:30you just draw a bunch of fibs all over
  476. 18:32the place or you mark out premium and
  477. 18:34discount all over the place because you
  478. 18:37have so many different time frames. You
  479. 18:39have all this different [ __ ] You can
  480. 18:40mark out established ranges all over the
  481. 18:42place. And then what happens is people
  482. 18:44will just like blindly buy discount and
  483. 18:47they'll blindly sell premium, but
  484. 18:49they're ignoring close beyond
  485. 18:51invalidation levels. They're treating
  486. 18:53fibs or other zones they may have in
  487. 18:55premium or discount as predictive. These
  488. 18:57are context errors. They're not strategy
  489. 19:00failures. You just need to understand
  490. 19:03that if you're using premium and
  491. 19:05discount, it must be used with context
  492. 19:08of higher time frame alignment.
  493. 19:10Essentially, where are we going? You
  494. 19:13can't just mark out a one minute range
  495. 19:15on a one minute time. Like, you can't go
  496. 19:17on a one minute time frame, mark out a
  497. 19:19range, and then we look bullish on a one
  498. 19:22minute time frame. So, you're going to
  499. 19:24be buying up the the discount on a one
  500. 19:28minute time frame range when all of the
  501. 19:30other time frames, five, 15, 1 hour, 4
  502. 19:34hour, daily, we're all obviously going
  503. 19:36lower. The draw is lower. Why are you
  504. 19:38going to be buying one minute discounts?
  505. 19:40Doesn't make any sense. So, just make
  506. 19:42sure if you're drawing premium and
  507. 19:45discount, you zoom out a little bit. You
  508. 19:47zoom out first. you do top down analysis
  509. 19:50to understand where it is that we are
  510. 19:52actually going before you start just
  511. 19:54blindly buying or selling premium or
  512. 19:56discount. So the final takeaway before
  513. 19:59we hop on the charts is just that
  514. 20:01premium and discount is auction logic.
  515. 20:04It is relative value and it's just
  516. 20:06awareness of location. And it works
  517. 20:09best, at least for me, when it's
  518. 20:11combined with consistent measurement,
  519. 20:13meaning that you are drawing and
  520. 20:16determining premium and discount the
  521. 20:18same way every time. And if you combine
  522. 20:21it with volume and then once we actually
  523. 20:23enter into those areas, if you use
  524. 20:25orderflows confirmation for the actual
  525. 20:27entries or the trades and just
  526. 20:29understanding what it represents is
  527. 20:31going to make execution like way
  528. 20:34simpler. All right, so let's say that
  529. 20:36today, this is today by the way. So it's
  530. 20:39currently uh February 3rd, 2026.
  531. 20:43This is actually a perfect example of
  532. 20:46premium and discount. Why? Because here
  533. 20:49we are in this range on a higher time
  534. 20:52frame. We're bouncing back and forth.
  535. 20:54Okay, we go from discount to premium to
  536. 20:57discount to premium. Now, Sunday opens
  537. 21:00up. We push further into discount. Now,
  538. 21:02the idea is is that we're going to come
  539. 21:04back to the equilibrium and we're going
  540. 21:06to push into premium. Now, if our bias
  541. 21:08is bearish, then what are we going to
  542. 21:11do? Well, we're going to take a
  543. 21:12significant swing high and a significant
  544. 21:14swing low, which is going to be the top
  545. 21:16and the bottom. We're going to extend it
  546. 21:19to the right for where price is going to
  547. 21:22basically print
  548. 21:24and we're going to understand that we
  549. 21:26are watching this area.
  550. 21:29We're essentially watching this area.
  551. 21:31Okay, I'm going to change this to orange
  552. 21:33so it's easier to see. If price were to
  553. 21:36get past the 886 in this scenario where
  554. 21:38we're pumping, then we're probably going
  555. 21:41to come up here and hit the 1.1. What
  556. 21:44I'll do then, if you ever see my other
  557. 21:45charts, you may see boxes on it and not
  558. 21:47know where they're coming from. Well,
  559. 21:49this is where it's coming from. If we
  560. 21:50were to take the swing high to the swing
  561. 21:53low, and we now create a zone. Well, in
  562. 21:57this zone, this is essentially where in
  563. 22:00premium I'm looking for us to
  564. 22:02potentially turn around if my bias is
  565. 22:04that we're going to go lower. So this
  566. 22:07morning specifically when we were
  567. 22:09opening up, I knew that we were here and
  568. 22:12I knew that we made this large move up.
  569. 22:14So what was my bias for the day? Well,
  570. 22:17it was to go lower. Now my bias would
  571. 22:20have flipped if we got above this area
  572. 22:22and this area. Then I would have started
  573. 22:23looking for price to potentially go
  574. 22:25higher. Now time out. Let's say, oh
  575. 22:28well, you already know what happened
  576. 22:30this day. You just cherrypicked this
  577. 22:32[ __ ] Okay, fine. But this happens every
  578. 22:35single day and I'm going to prove it to
  579. 22:36you right now. So let's say let's do
  580. 22:39this. Let's go to replay mode. On replay
  581. 22:42mode, let's go back to a random day.
  582. 22:43Let's go to November 20th at midnight.
  583. 22:46Okay, here we are in November.
  584. 22:50What does it look like here? Well, it
  585. 22:52looks like we probably are going to go
  586. 22:53lower. Why? Because we have
  587. 22:57price coming up. We now make a lower
  588. 22:59high. Lower high. Lower high. It's I
  589. 23:02would I would be looking for us to
  590. 23:04basically come lower to take these lows.
  591. 23:06Okay. So that is on a one hour time
  592. 23:08frame what I would be looking at. This
  593. 23:10would be the draw. So let's determine
  594. 23:12where should we actually be looking for
  595. 23:14a trade. So in this scenario, where is
  596. 23:17our range? Well, I would be going from
  597. 23:19this significant swing high here to this
  598. 23:22swing low here. I'm going to extend this
  599. 23:24out. We're already a little bit in
  600. 23:27premium, but we want it to go further
  601. 23:29into premium. And then what I'll also do
  602. 23:31is I'll just take this. I'm going to
  603. 23:33mark out the swing high, swing low.
  604. 23:36We're going to draw our box and we're
  605. 23:38going to put it right here.
  606. 23:41And this is the location that I'm going
  607. 23:43to be looking for to go short. And when
  608. 23:46we do go short, where are we going to
  609. 23:48target? Well, we'll target right here.
  610. 23:52This will be our draw on liquidity.
  611. 23:53Let's play it out and let's see what
  612. 23:55happens. Now, in the event, because I
  613. 23:58don't know what's going to happen. And I
  614. 23:59just chose a random day. In the event
  615. 24:02that we move up here
  616. 24:04and then we get past the top of this
  617. 24:07zone and we get past 886, I'm no longer
  618. 24:10looking for us to go lower. I'm then
  619. 24:12looking for us to go higher and I'm
  620. 24:13shifting my expectation to a bullish
  621. 24:15bias. What I'm looking for though is
  622. 24:18once we do get in here, I'd be watching
  623. 24:20order flow to determine whether or not
  624. 24:22we're going to turn around.
  625. 24:24Now, sometimes we may never actually get
  626. 24:26up into the zone. Now in this case it
  627. 24:29played out kind of quickly. What did we
  628. 24:31do? Well, we came into premium in the
  629. 24:3662. We came into our zone at the first
  630. 24:39level and we dropped. We dropped down to
  631. 24:42uh the drawn liquidity that we had. Now
  632. 24:45you might be saying to yourself, well
  633. 24:47Thrax, you knew what was going to happen
  634. 24:49that day. Well, no I didn't. But just to
  635. 24:51prove a point, I'm gonna do it again. It
  636. 24:54literally happens every day. This is how
  637. 24:56I frame this is how I frame my bias for
  638. 24:59direction besides using just normal
  639. 25:01market structure because my bias at this
  640. 25:04point was that we were going lower. This
  641. 25:05is an obvious bare trend. Lower highs
  642. 25:08and lower lows. You don't have to be a
  643. 25:09genius to figure that one out. But this
  644. 25:12is how I frame my ideas every single
  645. 25:16morning. Now we're doing it on a oneh
  646. 25:17hour time frame, but it's how I frame
  647. 25:19ideas every morning on where I should
  648. 25:21actually be looking to take a trade. So
  649. 25:23you know what? Let's drop down to a
  650. 25:2415minute time frame and let's go choose
  651. 25:27a new day. We'll go back to October.
  652. 25:30We'll go to
  653. 25:33I don't know October. No, it's a
  654. 25:35Saturday. We'll go to Tuesday, October
  655. 25:3814th. Okay. So, here we are before we
  656. 25:41even start the day. And usually I draw
  657. 25:44these in the morning after London and
  658. 25:46Asia have already been established, but
  659. 25:48I'm just going to show you what happens
  660. 25:49basically all the time. Let's just say
  661. 25:51that we take this swing low to swing
  662. 25:52high. Okay, let's move it to the right
  663. 25:56so we know what's going to happen the
  664. 25:58next day. We're going to be watching
  665. 26:00this area here. Standard, we'll make it
  666. 26:04uh orange so it's easy to see. So, let
  667. 26:07me just draw it from right here to right
  668. 26:10here.
  669. 26:12So, in this scenario, I'm looking at
  670. 26:14this area. Okay. And then let's turn
  671. 26:17this off. So, heading into this day, if
  672. 26:21I were to be bullish, which I didn't
  673. 26:23even do any type of Let's go look for a
  674. 26:26second. Okay. Well, in my mind, yes, we
  675. 26:30did have this drop lower, but just for
  676. 26:33the sake of the video, let's just play
  677. 26:34out what happens in this area. Now, we
  678. 26:36can totally just be coming down way
  679. 26:38further than this, but I'm just going to
  680. 26:41uh play it out. So, let's say we start
  681. 26:43playing out the 15-minute. I'm not
  682. 26:44looking to take a long at all until we
  683. 26:47get into this area.
  684. 26:51Okay. So, what happened right here?
  685. 26:55Here we are in our established range. We
  686. 26:57have we have the high and we have the
  687. 27:00low. Now, I would also show you what it
  688. 27:03looks like on a volume profile, but I
  689. 27:06can't really do that right now because
  690. 27:07we're just on Trading View and their
  691. 27:08volume profile kind of sucks. We're just
  692. 27:11going to talk about the fibs and the and
  693. 27:12the zones. But what what I would be
  694. 27:15doing in this scenario is we have the
  695. 27:17low and the high. So what happens if we
  696. 27:21are bullish? We think that price is
  697. 27:23going to potentially come and fill this
  698. 27:26gap which is what a new week opening gap
  699. 27:29and then potentially bounce and come
  700. 27:31back up. Then where are we looking?
  701. 27:33We're looking in this area to take a
  702. 27:35long or this area to take a long. If
  703. 27:38price gets below this box or below this
  704. 27:41886, then at that point, I would imagine
  705. 27:44that we're just going to continue to the
  706. 27:461.1. So, as price comes into here, we're
  707. 27:50on a 15minute time frame. If I'm
  708. 27:52watching this at 6:45, which is 15
  709. 27:55minutes after open, and I'm watching
  710. 27:58this happen, what am I looking at? Well,
  711. 28:01I'm looking at order flow. I'm seeing
  712. 28:03what's happening in this candle right
  713. 28:05here. I'm seeing what's happening when
  714. 28:06we got to these lows and I'm seeing what
  715. 28:08this next candle is going to do. Now,
  716. 28:11this is giving me context for location
  717. 28:12on where I should actually be looking to
  718. 28:14take a long position. We're in discount.
  719. 28:17We're in the area that I'm looking for.
  720. 28:19We touched into the 705. And now we can
  721. 28:22say the location is here. Let's look for
  722. 28:24confirmation to take it higher. Now, if
  723. 28:26you did that, well, great. You got a
  724. 28:29long and you probably made some money.
  725. 28:32Now, in the event that we came down
  726. 28:33here, we did a little bounce. I mean,
  727. 28:36you would be watching on order flow for
  728. 28:38confirmation. Again, you're not just
  729. 28:39going to take random trades because
  730. 28:41they're in this area. This is just
  731. 28:43giving you an idea for context. Okay?
  732. 28:46And again, people are going to say like,
  733. 28:49"Oh, you're cherry-picking these." I'm
  734. 28:51literally picking random days. It
  735. 28:53happens like every day. I do this every
  736. 28:55morning to determine where do I think
  737. 28:57we're going. And just so that you know
  738. 28:59I'm basically not full of [ __ ] Well,
  739. 29:02let's start marking some of these out.
  740. 29:04Okay, so let's say that we go from this
  741. 29:07swing low right here.
  742. 29:11Let's say we go from this swing low
  743. 29:12right here to this swing high. Well,
  744. 29:14where are we going to drop on this box?
  745. 29:16I don't know. Right there. Boom. Okay,
  746. 29:18let's draw out a fib. If we go from here
  747. 29:21to here, where are we? Where did we
  748. 29:23touch the 705? Okay. Well, if that's not
  749. 29:27random enough for you, let's go look for
  750. 29:28a different one. Let's look at this one.
  751. 29:31Okay, here we are. We have our range
  752. 29:33right here from here, this swing low to
  753. 29:35this swing high. Where do we touch into
  754. 29:37the 705 and 788? We're bullish. Our our
  755. 29:41bias is bullish. Okay. Well, what's
  756. 29:43going to happen when we go from swing
  757. 29:44low to swing high?
  758. 29:46It it it literally happens all the time.
  759. 29:49And this is a great way as long as your
  760. 29:52bias is correct.
  761. 29:55This is a great way to determine
  762. 29:59a good location to look for your
  763. 30:01reversals. A good location where you
  764. 30:04should actually be looking for the trend
  765. 30:06to then continue on that pullback. Now,
  766. 30:09again, you don't need this tool. It's
  767. 30:12great. It'll help you out, sure. But
  768. 30:13let's just imagine we don't have it.
  769. 30:15Okay.
  770. 30:17Now, let's say that we're just looking
  771. 30:19at this. Well, then we're just going to
  772. 30:22be looking at this this area. That's it.
  773. 30:25Happens all the time. To the downside,
  774. 30:27too. The point of this video is just to
  775. 30:30have you understand how I actually use
  776. 30:33premium and discount. I'm using it as a
  777. 30:36location filter to understand where it
  778. 30:38is that I should actually be looking to
  779. 30:39take trades. I do it every single day.
  780. 30:42And I don't draw them out on both sides.
  781. 30:44I'm not going to do this and this
  782. 30:47because if my bias on a higher time
  783. 30:51frame is that we just swept liquidity,
  784. 30:54let's say, and now we're heading higher,
  785. 30:55why am I going to be looking for shorts?
  786. 30:58You just you wouldn't do that. It
  787. 31:00wouldn't make sense. Just go with the
  788. 31:01higher time frame bias. Find your
  789. 31:03discount areas, find your premium areas,
  790. 31:06and then just understand where you
  791. 31:08should actually be taking the trade. If
  792. 31:10you do that, then you use Orderflow's
  793. 31:12confirmation to actually take entries on
  794. 31:15smaller time frames,
  795. 31:17you're going to find that it really
  796. 31:20helps that it really helps out. So, I do
  797. 31:24have a um PDF that I created that talks
  798. 31:28all about this and how I actually look
  799. 31:30at the market. Not just entries, it's
  800. 31:33not about entries. It's about
  801. 31:34understanding how I actually look at the
  802. 31:36market. I made a PDF. It's like 60 pages
  803. 31:38long. I spent a lot of time on it. I
  804. 31:41think it has great information on it. If
  805. 31:43you ever want to check it out, it's
  806. 31:45free. You can literally click the link
  807. 31:47in the description and download it or
  808. 31:49you can join the Discord and the Discord
  809. 31:51has it in the education section. Yeah,
  810. 31:53that's it. I literally do this every day
  811. 31:55and I just thought it would be a good
  812. 31:56idea to make a video on it. So hopefully
  813. 31:58it might help somebody. So I'll catch
  814. 32:00you guys next time I make a video and
  815. 32:02hopefully we'll talk about something
  816. 32:03else that is interesting or important in
  817. 32:06my trading. Peace.

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