🔥 How High Can Fartcoin Go? - FARTCOIN Crypto Analysis — Transcript

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1. 0:00Have a look at this line first. Here
2. 0:02we've got Fart Coin over the last 2
3. 0:04years and we're looking at the peak of
4. 0:06$2.48.
5. 0:08Today we are at about 14 cents. So, the
6. 0:11obvious question is whether this thing
7. 0:13can ever get back up there. By the end
8. 0:16of this video, you will know exactly
9. 0:18what it would take to get back up there
10. 0:20as a number. And here's the strange
11. 0:22part, the crowd around this token has
12. 0:24been doing the opposite. So, who is
13. 0:26still buying after a drop like this? Hi,
14. 0:29my name is Gerhard. I've been in the
15. 0:31crypto space for the last 8 years. I
16. 0:32made my first million 3 years ago and it
17. 0:34is mainly through active trading of
18. 0:36altcoins. My track record is down below
19. 0:38in the pinned comment. Feel free to
20. 0:39check it out. This is also where you get
21. 0:41access to premium. There's also a 7-day
22. 0:43money-back guarantee for premium, so
23. 0:45there's no risk in trying it out. Let's
24. 0:47talk about Fart Coin. Now, Fart Coin
25. 0:49came out as a joke in late 2024. An
26. 0:52artificial intelligence agent suggested
27. 0:55the name. Somebody launched it and it
28. 0:57went to almost $2.5 billion. There's
29. 1:00There's no company, no product, no
30. 1:02revenue. There never was. So, this is an
31. 1:05attention asset and attention is the
32. 1:08only thing that prices it. I'll do this
33. 1:11one as a debate because both sides are
34. 1:13genuinely strong here. First the bull
35. 1:15case, then the bear case, and then the
36. 1:17math that decides it for me. Let's start
37. 1:20with the part that's actually good.
38. 1:22We've got every single token already out
39. 1:24there, all 1 billion tokens. The mint is
40. 1:27switched off on the Solana side, so
41. 1:29nobody can ever make another token. That
42. 1:32means there's no unlock schedule,
43. 1:34there's no team selling into the rally,
44. 1:36nothing like this. Most altcoins I look
45. 1:38at can't say that and it matters more
46. 1:40than people think. Here's the next one.
47. 1:43This is the group of tokens that came
48. 1:45out at the same artificial intelligence
49. 1:47meme coin wave in 2024. Here we've got
50. 1:50Fart Coin at about 136 million. And the
51. 1:53next ones down are 15 million, 19
52. 1:56million, and 29 million. So, it's worth
53. 1:59about nine times the tokens that the
54. 2:01original agent was actually named after.
55. 2:04It's the last survivor of its own
56. 2:06cohort, and the brand is the asset. Now,
57. 2:10look at this line because this is the
58. 2:11loop from the start. Here, we've got the
59. 2:13holder count, and we are at about
60. 2:15170,000 holders. At the top, back in
61. 2:18January of last year, there were roughly
62. 2:2070,000 holders. So, the crowd has grown
63. 2:24more than two and a half times while the
64. 2:26price fell 94%.
65. 2:28So, that's the crowd doing the exact
66. 2:30opposite of the price, and it tends to
67. 2:33matter more than just one big wallet.
68. 2:35The top 10 wallets hold about 35% of the
69. 2:38supply, and that's down from last week.
70. 2:40Open interest fell by about 18% in the
71. 2:43last week, too. So, leverage is leaving,
72. 2:46not building. The funding rate is close
73. 2:48to flat, so nobody is paying either
74. 2:50direction to bet on rising prices or on
75. 2:53falling prices. Now, Fart Coin is
76. 2:55launched via pump.fun on the Solana
77. 2:57chain, and so it makes sense to look at
78. 2:59the asset relative to Solana, and that's
79. 3:02this chart here. This is Fart Coin
80. 3:04divided by the Solana price, and it
81. 3:07looks like we might have just recently
82. 3:10broken a support. That's not good,
83. 3:13right? We have very nice lining tops. We
84. 3:16have nicely aligning bottoms as well,
85. 3:18and just recently, we saw the bottom
86. 3:21breaking. By how much? Let's have a
87. 3:23look. The answer is roughly 8%, and from
88. 3:26the bottom, even 14%.
89. 3:29This is not an asset that's valued based
90. 3:32on fundamentals. It's an asset that's
91. 3:34valued based on attention. Let's also
92. 3:37compare Fart Coin relative to the pump
93. 3:40token. Unfortunately, it did not
94. 3:42outperform. It rather looks like we have
95. 3:45lower lows and lower highs as well.
96. 3:48Short term, though, we might be oversold
97. 3:50on that metric, and we could potentially
98. 3:53outperform by 140% or so. Now, let's
99. 3:56talk about the other side, and it's just
100. 3:58as strong. The first thing I notice is
101. 4:00simple. There is no news around Fatcoin.
102. 4:03I went through the last 6 weeks and
103. 4:05found nothing. No listing, no fund, no
104. 4:08partnership, nothing at all. For an
105. 4:11attention asset, no news is not neutral.
106. 4:14It's the whole problem. Have a look at
107. 4:16what that costs. In the last 30 days,
108. 4:18Bitcoin went up around 19%, Solana about
109. 4:2229%, Dogecoin about 14%, and Fatcoin did
110. 4:26about minus 6% in the same window.
111. 4:30Measured relative to Bitcoin over those
112. 4:3230 days, we are down about 20%. So, the
113. 4:35entire market bounced. This one just sat
114. 4:38still. Now, the bigger problem is the
115. 4:40neighborhood. Here's the whole meme coin
116. 4:43sector, and we are at about 30.7 billion
117. 4:46US dollars. At the January 2025 peak, it
118. 4:49was 93.1 billion. So, the sector lost
119. 4:52about 2/3 of its value. Over the last 30
120. 4:55days, meme tokens did about 10% while
121. 4:58the broader altcoin market did about
122. 5:0040%. So, it's a 30 percentage point gap,
123. 5:03and the money is going somewhere else.
124. 5:06The launchpad that started all of this
125. 5:07is down about 88% from the peak trading
126. 5:11volume. Then, there's the structure of
127. 5:13this thing. What we see here is the open
128. 5:16interest, and it's still about 91% of
129. 5:19the market cap. Bitcoin's own ratio is
130. 5:22around 3%. So, we are roughly 26 times
131. 5:26that. And the top 10 wallets hold about
132. 5:28five times more than the whole chain
133. 5:30could absorb. So, this is a token where
134. 5:33a real seller has nowhere to go. There's
135. 5:36a very high chance of price manipulation
136. 5:39again through the perpetual futures,
137. 5:41through leverage. So, let's do the math.
138. 5:43That answers the question from the
139. 5:45start. The generous scenario is that the
140. 5:48whole meme sector goes back to its
141. 5:50January 2025 peak. That's about three
142. 5:52times from here for the sector as a
143. 5:54whole. Fart Coin currently holds about
144. 5:570.44%
145. 5:58of that sector. So, if it just keeps
146. 6:01that share of the full recovery, we get
147. 6:03about 412 million US dollars in market
148. 6:06cap for Fart Coin. That's roughly 41
149. 6:08cents per token. So, we'd be at three
150. 6:11times our money. Now, that is still
151. 6:13about 83% below the all-time high. In
152. 6:17other words, a complete round trip of
153. 6:19the sector does not round trip this
154. 6:22token. It gets us to about 1/6 of the
155. 6:25old price. So, what would it actually
156. 6:27take to get back up there to $2.48?
157. 6:31Fart Coin would need about 2.66%
158. 6:34of the entire meme coin sector. That's
159. 6:36six times the share it has today, and a
160. 6:39bigger token than Pepe is right now. So,
161. 6:42it can't just wait for the tide. It has
162. 6:44to take share from Doge Coin and Pepe.
163. 6:47That's the honest answer, and it's the
164. 6:49one nobody puts in the thumbnail. So,
165. 6:51what's my take here? I don't think the
166. 6:53old highs is a realistic target anymore,
167. 6:56and I'd stop using it as an anchor. But,
168. 6:58I also don't think this is dead money,
169. 7:01and that's an important difference. Yes,
170. 7:03there's no news, and the sector is
171. 7:04losing to the rest of the crypto market.
172. 7:06Still, the float is clean, the leverage
173. 7:09is coming down, and the crowd keeps
174. 7:11growing. This is probably a trade about
175. 7:14the meme coin sector turning, not just
176. 7:16about Fart Coin itself. And if I wanted
177. 7:18to trade that, I'd rather trade the
178. 7:21leader in the sector than the laggard.
179. 7:23Now, the leader in the sector is of
180. 7:25course Doge Coin. That's where I stand
181. 7:27today. I'd rather buy Doge Coin over
182. 7:29Fart Coin simply just to ride the meme
183. 7:31coin sector. Now, let's be fair about
184. 7:34the size of the opportunity. If the
185. 7:35opportunity simply goes back to where it
186. 7:38was, this is about three times from
187. 7:40here. And it might be more because a
188. 7:42token this thin tends to have some
189. 7:44inherent leverage built in it. There's
190. 7:46only about 9 million US dollars of ETH
191. 7:49behind the price on the chain. That cuts
192. 7:51both ways, of course, but on the way up,
193. 7:54that is a feature. So, the setup we want
194. 7:57here is very simple. We want meme coins
195. 7:59beating the altcoin market for a few
196. 8:01weeks. We want the holder count to
197. 8:03continue to climb. When those two things
198. 8:06line up, this could be a clean way to
199. 8:08play it. Until then, I'm simply just
200. 8:10watching the meme coin space from the
201. 8:12sidelines, and I'd rather trade privacy
202. 8:14coins, and I'd rather trade other price
203. 8:17inefficiencies within crypto, but also
204. 8:19within traditional finance. More of that
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210. 8:29well. See you next time. Cheers.