How Chris Camillo Made $10 MILLION In One Day — Transcript

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1. 0:00You texted into our group chat, "Finding
2. 0:02cash wasn't easy today, but added to my
3. 0:04Bloom Energy and Amazon knowing it could
4. 0:07get a lot uglier before the market
5. 0:09rationalizes, but been here before."
6. 0:11Wednesday afternoon, a few hours later,
7. 0:13you texted, "I don't know of many people
8. 0:15who are as immune to volatility than
9. 0:17me." And there was a moment this morning
10. 0:19where I legit almost threw up, then
11. 0:21picked up more Bloom Energy in Amazon.
12. 0:24Thursday afternoon, 24 hours later, you
13. 0:26texted, "This is so close to an 8
14. 0:29figureure up day. Unreal." I'm curious,
15. 0:32why did you almost throw up?
16. 0:34>> When it rains, it pours, guys. It's just
17. 0:37I feel like this happens to every
18. 0:39investor every time. It's like you have
19. 0:43these bad days, these bad weeks at the
20. 0:46worst possible times in your life. It's
21. 0:49like when you're on family vacation
22. 0:51spending way too much money or when you
23. 0:53need money for something else and you're
24. 0:55like already drawing down your account
25. 0:59for something else in your life. I have
26. 1:02a couple things going on right now that
27. 1:04I needed to withdraw an insane amount of
28. 1:07money from my account for. So like I
29. 1:09already kind of watch my account dip
30. 1:12because of something I need, right?
31. 1:14something I want to do. Right as that
32. 1:16happened, over the course of a couple
33. 1:19weeks, I have one of the biggest draw
34. 1:21downs of my investing career, 40%. I've
35. 1:24been worse. How do you lose 40%. That's
36. 1:28a lot of money. Hey, cuz the market only
37. 1:30went down a little bit.
38. 1:31>> That's what's so crazy. I mean, I got
39. 1:35caught up. I just happened to have the
40. 1:37same major investment as Leopold, right?
41. 1:40Like, you know this. I was very early on
42. 1:44Bloom Energy. He was very early on Bloom
43. 1:46Energy. Both of us compounded and
44. 1:50levered into Bloom.
45. 1:53We 6x, 7, 8xed our money on Bloom, even
46. 1:56without leverage. Like Bloom is one of
47. 1:58the biggest investments I've ever made.
48. 2:00Bloom got cut by, I don't know, 45%. It
49. 2:03went from what, $300 a share to 165 over
50. 2:07a short period of time. That was one of
51. 2:09my largest positions right there. What
52. 2:11price did you buy into Bloom Energy?
53. 2:13>> I bought Bloom Energy all around. I
54. 2:15bought few hundred shares at like 70
55. 2:17bucks. Bought a few hundred atund and
56. 2:20something. Bought a few hundred at 300
57. 2:22and something. So, I was buying kind of
58. 2:24like all around. But I ended up getting
59. 2:27obliterated on Bloom. Fortunately, not
60. 2:30that bad because I was selling some
61. 2:31calls in the shares and I was doing some
62. 2:33tricky options that hurt me and helped
63. 2:35me at the same time. Overall, I would
64. 2:37say I probably lost on Bloom, but it's
65. 2:39okay because I made it up elsewhere.
66. 2:40Here's the thing. So, my account was
67. 2:44slaughtered. And don't feel bad for me
68. 2:46because you guys know this. My account
69. 2:48was hitting all-time highs. Like, like
70. 2:49before this started, I was starting from
71. 2:51a very good place, which is why I
72. 2:53decided, hey, I can afford to take out
73. 2:56these huge chunks of money to do these
74. 2:58other things that I want to do in my
75. 3:00life, other investments, other projects,
76. 3:02right? I didn't expect within the same
77. 3:05week for my account to get crushed 40%.
78. 3:07So, it was kind of a big mental hit. I
79. 3:10also knew without knowing what was
80. 3:13happening to Leopold. I knew what he
81. 3:16owned. Whether or not it was someone
82. 3:19manipulating that to try to mess with
83. 3:22him didn't really matter to me. I knew
84. 3:24that he was getting margin called. It he
85. 3:26had to be getting margin called. I
86. 3:28assumed he owed something in the range
87. 3:31of 10 plus billion very quickly. And I
88. 3:34knew that was what was driving the down
89. 3:37cycle in Bloom Energy and Nebius and a
90. 3:40few of these other AI names in addition
91. 3:42to sector news that was pushing it down.
92. 3:45Right? So because I knew about that
93. 3:47forced downflow, I knew it was going to
94. 3:49revert. I just didn't have the timing.
95. 3:52Right? And so here's where you get into
96. 3:54what I do. Everything's a probability
97. 3:56game. I knew we were days away from
98. 4:00having that trade reverse because at
99. 4:03some point his margin call would end and
100. 4:07Bloom did not deserve to be at $165 a
101. 4:10share. Like it it was outrageous. Um in
102. 4:13fact all these names they were the
103. 4:15entire sector move was completely
104. 4:17ridiculous and fueled by not just his
105. 4:21margin calls but I knew all of Korea was
106. 4:23getting margin called. Basically every
107. 4:25levered fund in South Korea was getting
108. 4:28liquidated over the same time period
109. 4:30because what are they invested in? Bloom
110. 4:33Energy is one of the biggest names in
111. 4:34South Korea, right? Basically all the
112. 4:36Leopold stuff is all the South Korea
113. 4:39stuff which is all the Chris Camilillo
114. 4:41stuff. So me Leopold and South Korea
115. 4:44were all getting crushed at the same
116. 4:45time. So what are you going to do?
117. 4:48Fortunately, I'm not managing an
118. 4:50institutional fund. My account is more
119. 4:52liquid. I have more control over it and
120. 4:54I wasn't 4x levered like Leopold. I was
121. 4:57like 1x levered, right?
122. 4:59>> So, a lot of people are accusing you on
123. 5:00Twitter of irresponsible risktaking that
124. 5:03you shouldn't even be discussing
125. 5:05publicly. What do you say to that?
126. 5:07>> That's insane. Like I I have full
127. 5:10control over the risk in my account. You
128. 5:13guys know this. Like no one is more
129. 5:15obsessive
130. 5:17over every move that they make than me.
131. 5:20So, first of all, let's start here. We
132. 5:22all have different investment
133. 5:23objectives, right? My objectives are
134. 5:25very different than yours. They're very
135. 5:28different from other investors.
136. 5:31The entirety of my brokerage account is
137. 5:34a ultra high risk, ultra high ward
138. 5:37account. I'm trying to grow that account
139. 5:40into a billion dollar account, right?
140. 5:43That's not going to happen without
141. 5:44concentration. It's not going to happen
142. 5:46without leverage. And it's not going to
143. 5:49happen without me making really bold
144. 5:51bets when I have ultra high conviction
145. 5:54in a trade. I only get that conviction a
146. 5:57few times a year. So when it happens, I
147. 6:00have to go all in on that trade. It's
148. 6:03all about probability. I know that every
149. 6:06time I go in on a high conviction trade,
150. 6:08there's things that I know I don't know,
151. 6:11and there's things that I don't know
152. 6:13that I don't know. Okay? I know that
153. 6:15there's an infinite number of things
154. 6:17that could happen that could zero me out
155. 6:18on that trade cuz they're usually
156. 6:20levered. They're usually on margin.
157. 6:21They're usually with options. I'm a big
158. 6:24boy. I've been doing this for like close
159. 6:25to 30 years. Okay? So, like I know what
160. 6:27I'm doing. I know the risk. I know that
161. 6:29if I make six of those trades in a row,
162. 6:32that account is is pretty close to being
163. 6:34gone, right? I get that. There is a
164. 6:38theoretical in a ultra high risk, ultra
165. 6:40high ward account. there is a
166. 6:42theoretical there that that account can
167. 6:44get wiped out. I I know that I'm willing
168. 6:47to take that risk. Um hasn't happened
169. 6:50yet. Hasn't even gotten that close yet,
170. 6:53right? 40% markdown. I basically had
171. 6:56another 20% of the account at risk. Uh
172. 6:59and by the way, that Wednesday,
173. 7:03I had a lot of options that expired on
174. 7:06Wednesday. All got zeroed out. Okay.
175. 7:08>> How much money is that? seven figures of
176. 7:11options that got zeroed out that day
177. 7:13that I had. It was a 24-hour trade that
178. 7:14got zeroed out. Again, I knew that we
179. 7:18were close to the end. I knew that the
180. 7:21liquidation had to end within a matter
181. 7:24of hours to days. And I was willing to
182. 7:27take that risk because even though I got
183. 7:29wiped out on that Wednesday trade, if it
184. 7:32would have turned that day, it would
185. 7:33have been it would have been insane. It
186. 7:35would have been like a 25 to 30x
187. 7:38investment. I we're talking about tens
188. 7:40of millions. And that's the trade that I
189. 7:42have been working all spring and summer.
190. 7:45That is the highest conviction trade
191. 7:47I've made in years. I was hoping it
192. 7:49would play out before earnings, but if
193. 7:52it didn't, earnings was my last shot.
194. 7:55And because of the things that happened
195. 7:56running into Amazon earnings, I had an
196. 7:59exceptionally high degree of confidence
197. 8:02that it's not about Amazon nailing
198. 8:05earnings. That was obvious. It's about
199. 8:06how they would handle the earnings call.
200. 8:08And these are things that other
201. 8:09investors generally don't think about
202. 8:11that I'm obsessive with.
203. 8:12>> So, walk us through the last month at
204. 8:15the peak. How much were you down?
205. 8:17>> All right. I I'm going to not going to
206. 8:18get like super granular because people
207. 8:21have started and this makes me really
208. 8:23nervous, especially with the Leopold
209. 8:24stuff. Maybe I'm paranoid. Um, over the
210. 8:27last couple years, I feel like there's
211. 8:30one or more people with a lot more money
212. 8:33than me that for whatever reason, they
213. 8:36want to mess with me and my trades. And
214. 8:39I've seen it. I've seen it with some of
215. 8:41my trades that are easier to mess with
216. 8:43when it comes to like midcaps, small
217. 8:45caps.
218. 8:45>> How do they do that?
219. 8:46>> Well, as you guys know, like I run a
220. 8:48very anti-wall street kind of content
221. 8:52and I have for 20 years. I poke fun at
222. 8:55the institutions of Wall Street. Now
223. 8:57that some of those guys are my best
224. 8:58friends, but I've been harping on Wall
225. 9:01Street for two decades, saying that it's
226. 9:03the world's largest skimming operation.
227. 9:05I believe it is.
228. 9:07I don't think that people should have
229. 9:08the world's money parked in, you know,
230. 9:12institutional accounts that basically
231. 9:14skim money every year uh to not perform
232. 9:17any better than you could perform being
233. 9:19invested in a passive fund. And I think
234. 9:23that's probably pissed more than a few
235. 9:24people off. And the same way that I
236. 9:26think Leopold probably pissed more than
237. 9:28a few people off being a cocky 20
238. 9:30something year old that is managing what
239. 9:34$40 billion of capital and is now taking
240. 9:38probably more media airspace than the
241. 9:41Citadels and the King Griffins of the
242. 9:43world. He put himself he put a target on
243. 9:44his back, right? I'm not saying like I
244. 9:47have that big of a target on my back,
245. 9:48but it's something that's on my mind.
246. 9:50So, I'm trying to stay a little less
247. 9:51granular these days about my exact
248. 9:53trades and exactly how I position them,
249. 9:55but it's eight figures. I was down eight
250. 9:57figures, right? Or a little close to
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285. 11:02would you have been wrong?
286. 11:04>> I would say there was probably a 20%
287. 11:06chance of that trade not going well on
288. 11:09Friday. So, I was like I was like 80%
289. 11:13confident and and the 20% again are kind
290. 11:16of things that I knew I didn't know and
291. 11:18things that I didn't know that I didn't
292. 11:20know. I mean, we're in a situation with
293. 11:22Trump and Iran. We don't know what's
294. 11:23going to happen any night of the week.
295. 11:26You know, Amazon I was confident was
296. 11:28going to beat their numbers. I mean, I
297. 11:29was obsessive. You guys, I put so much
298. 11:32work into this trade. It's obscene
299. 11:35going right into that trade last week. I
300. 11:39was still searching for every
301. 11:40theoretical data point that I could find
302. 11:44that would allow me to properly assess
303. 11:45the degree to which they were likely to
304. 11:48beat their AWS number. Now, you know, I
305. 11:51think Amazon had predicted like a 22%
306. 11:54beat. I think the whisper number was
307. 11:55like 25% on the street and I was
308. 11:58confident it was going to come somewhere
309. 11:59north of 25. So, the only question in my
310. 12:02mind was how are they going to handle
311. 12:03the call? Now, this is the nuance in the
312. 12:06social orb trade here. If you look at
313. 12:09how Google handled their call and you
314. 12:11look at how Microsoft handled their
315. 12:13call, you have to look at Amazon
316. 12:16management,
317. 12:17okay, and you have to look at Jasse.
318. 12:19He's a smart guy. He sees what happened
319. 12:22to Google. He sees what happened to to
320. 12:24Microsoft. Microsoft flawlessly handled
321. 12:28the capex question, right? They got in
322. 12:31front of it and they were basically
323. 12:32like, "Hey, we don't have any capex
324. 12:34risk, guys. if the demand doesn't fully
325. 12:38materialize as we see it right in front
326. 12:41of us, we can redirect it. And so I knew
327. 12:45it was it was to me it was like a 99.9%
328. 12:49chance that Jasse was going to handle it
329. 12:50the same way in his own way by basically
330. 12:52saying, "Hey, we know this is scaring
331. 12:54you. 200 billion. We're actually going
332. 12:56to increase the 220. But guys, not only
333. 13:00do we see the demand, it's factual. It's
334. 13:03happening. But if something catastrophic
335. 13:06happens, the majority of the money that
336. 13:08we have in capex projected the next
337. 13:11year, we can take off the table because
338. 13:14it's towards equipment that we don't
339. 13:15have to commit to until the very last
340. 13:18piece of that data center. Right? So, I
341. 13:21felt confident like there's no way that
342. 13:22I was going to put that much work into
343. 13:24Amazon this year. And even after what
344. 13:28happened to me on Wednesday and the week
345. 13:30before, cuz I've been losing money like
346. 13:32every week, right? There's no way I was
347. 13:35going to watch Amazon knock it out of
348. 13:37the park and me not participate.
349. 13:39I wasn't even nervous. That's what's so
350. 13:41crazy. Like I was actually in my truck
351. 13:44driving to Austin uh when earnings
352. 13:47happened and I wasn't even following it.
353. 13:49Like I was just like I had a real sense
354. 13:51of calm over me. I was like, "Hey, if I
355. 13:54have to do this and I think it's going
356. 13:57to work out. I just didn't know how well
357. 13:59it was going to work out."
358. 14:00>> And so I'm suspecting you probably took
359. 14:03your portfolio down to like the low
360. 14:05seven figures, which is somewhat of I
361. 14:08mean for you
362. 14:09>> it wasn't that low. It wasn't that low
363. 14:11>> that low. It was like it was still kind
364. 14:13of in and around high seven figures, low
365. 14:16low eight figures,
366. 14:17>> but you had previously lost close to
367. 14:18eight figures in the portfolio. And now
368. 14:20then you for this Amazon trade put I'm a
369. 14:24few million bucks into Amazon call
370. 14:26options and
371. 14:27>> and it was a heavy investment
372. 14:29>> and bloom and bloom. Amazon and Bloom.
373. 14:31Are you willing to say how much you put
374. 14:32into those trades for the
375. 14:34>> Yeah, it w it was I don't know like
376. 14:36couple million dollars of options and
377. 14:39>> expiring when?
378. 14:41>> Friday the next day basically. Uh yeah.
379. 14:44So and on top of that my account was
380. 14:48fully levered. So I basically had to
381. 14:50sell stock to make this happen. So I had
382. 14:52I had to liquidate I had to liquidate
383. 14:54millions of dollars of equity that was
384. 14:56less important to me in order to make
385. 14:58that optionist trade. And so you ran it
386. 15:00up about eight figures.
387. 15:02>> Yeah, about 10 million in a day.
388. 15:04>> And how did that feel? Like like walk me
389. 15:06through looking at your portfolio and
390. 15:08seeing that it's up $10 million a day.
391. 15:10>> I will tell you this,
392. 15:12making money like that after you lost
393. 15:16money feels better, much better than
394. 15:19just making the money, right? Like
395. 15:22there's something about seeing your
396. 15:24account get crushed and then making a
397. 15:27really bold move to make it all back
398. 15:29plus some. Cuz I I I I ended up doing
399. 15:31better than what I lost. It was like a
400. 15:32few million more than what I lost is
401. 15:34what I made. It was the best feeling in
402. 15:37the world because you know it was the
403. 15:39hardest thing in the world to do and you
404. 15:41and and you force yourself to do it cuz
405. 15:43it was the right thing to do. I would
406. 15:45say from my sense it would have been bad
407. 15:48risk management for me not to do it. If
408. 15:50you know, if you know how much work I
409. 15:52put into the trade,
410. 15:54you would think it's really bad risk
411. 15:56management not to make that trade.