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Here was the world Hitler planned — Transcript

by Elephants in Rooms - Ken LaCorte · 3,550 words · 546 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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  1. 0:00What if Hitler had actually won the
  2. 0:02Second World War? Look, I've seen a few
  3. 0:04videos on this topic and they were all a
  4. 0:06bit fantastical. More like a dystopian
  5. 0:09novel instead of a clear-headed look at
  6. 0:11history. So, this is less Man in the
  7. 0:14High Castle where Nazis are running the
  8. 0:16United States, but a much more realistic
  9. 0:18look at how a few singular events
  10. 0:21actually could have turned the tide for
  11. 0:23Hitler and what that subsequent reality
  12. 0:25might have been. Because Hitler, as he
  13. 0:28often did, told us exactly what he would
  14. 0:30have done. He wrote it down in detail
  15. 0:32with maps. And the real question is
  16. 0:35whether that world could have held
  17. 0:36together and what could have stopped it.
  18. 0:39I'm Ken Lecourt and today's elephant in
  19. 0:41the room is about understanding a
  20. 0:42realistic alternative history that we
  21. 0:45actually could have faced. We'll start
  22. 0:47with how close he came because the
  23. 0:49Allied victory wasn't a sure thing.
  24. 0:52Then, the blueprint he was planning to
  25. 0:54build on top of a victory. Then, we'll
  26. 0:56look at some of the problems with the
  27. 0:58Third Reich and how it may have been
  28. 1:00built to break. Finally, we'll take a
  29. 1:02look at the America problem because that
  30. 1:04stood between Hitler and global
  31. 1:07domination.
  32. 1:08So, let's first take a look at how close
  33. 1:10he came to winning the war. I mean, to
  34. 1:12our modern thinking, the Nazis were
  35. 1:14doomed from the start and and the good
  36. 1:16guys were always going to win. And
  37. 1:18that's a comforting story, but it's just
  38. 1:21not true. At the very least, there were
  39. 1:22at least three moments where a different
  40. 1:24decision could have given Hitler all of
  41. 1:26Europe. Take late May 1940. France is
  42. 1:30falling faster than anyone imagined. The
  43. 1:32British army is pinned down on the beach
  44. 1:34at Dunkirk and a serious faction inside
  45. 1:36their war cabinet is pressing Churchill
  46. 1:39to cut a deal with Germany. The argument
  47. 1:41had some merit. I mean, Britain was
  48. 1:43alone. Their army was trapped and
  49. 1:45fighting looked like national suicide.
  50. 1:48If that faction won that argument, the
  51. 1:50war in the west would have been over
  52. 1:52before the United States ever showed up.
  53. 1:55Or September 1940, Battle of Britain.
  54. 1:57British pilots are dying faster than
  55. 1:59they could be replaced. Airfields are
  56. 2:01getting hammered and the whole force is
  57. 2:03close to breaking. If the RAF collapses,
  58. 2:06Germany owns the skies over the channel
  59. 2:09and an invasion of Britain goes from
  60. 2:10fantasy to something real. Or the winter
  61. 2:13of 1941 outside Moscow. The German drive
  62. 2:17on the capital that had moved forward
  63. 2:19all autumn. In mid-October, the Soviet
  64. 2:21government panicked and began
  65. 2:22evacuating. They loaded up files onto
  66. 2:25trains. Government buildings were wired
  67. 2:27for demolition. By early December,
  68. 2:29German reconnaissance units had pushed
  69. 2:31to the very edge of Moscow. Close enough
  70. 2:34to see it through field glasses. Like
  71. 2:36like 15 to 20 miles from the Kremlin.
  72. 2:38The entire Eastern Front was balanced on
  73. 2:40a razor. And Hitler, the same man who
  74. 2:43came that close, he also made mistakes
  75. 2:45that saved us. He halted his tanks at
  76. 2:47Dunkirk and let the British army slip
  77. 2:49away. He invaded the Soviet Union with
  78. 2:52Britain still in the fight, which every
  79. 2:54general since Napoleon could have warned
  80. 2:56him against. And after Pearl Harbor, he
  81. 2:58was under no obligation to Japan to
  82. 3:00declare war against the United States,
  83. 3:03but he did it anyway.
  84. 3:04Hitler came terrifyingly close to
  85. 3:07winning Europe. And if he did, what were
  86. 3:09his plans? Well, here's the blueprint.
  87. 3:12The historian Gerhard Weinberg, who
  88. 3:14wrote an outstanding history of the war,
  89. 3:16explained Hitler's plans in detail. It
  90. 3:18ran in phases. Phase one was Europe.
  91. 3:22First, annex Denmark, Norway, Sweden and
  92. 3:24Finland as fellow Germanic territory.
  93. 3:27Turn France, Britain and Ireland into
  94. 3:29controlled puppet states and knock Spain
  95. 3:32and Portugal down to satellite states.
  96. 3:34Phase two was the real prize, the East.
  97. 3:37I mean, this is where it stops being
  98. 3:39conquest and becomes something else
  99. 3:41uglier. I mean, not ruling a people, but
  100. 3:43erasing them. The plan had a name,
  101. 3:46Generalplan Ost, the master plan for the
  102. 3:49East. It called for the extermination or
  103. 3:51deportation of over 30 million people
  104. 3:54across Poland, the Baltics, Belarus,
  105. 3:57Ukraine, and stretches of Russia. The
  106. 3:59percentages are staggering on their own.
  107. 4:01Over 80% of Poles marked for removal,
  108. 4:04about 75% of Belarusans. Jews were
  109. 4:07marked for total extermination. The
  110. 4:09others, they were to be deported east or
  111. 4:12worked to death. Slavs, they'd be pushed
  112. 4:14east into Siberia or kept as slaves.
  113. 4:17Then Germans would move in and resettle
  114. 4:19the emptied land. Running right
  115. 4:21alongside that was the hunger plan,
  116. 4:23which really gets mentioned and is one
  117. 4:25of the more chilling things that I've
  118. 4:27come across in this research. But before
  119. 4:29we get to that, I want to talk about
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  149. 5:34so back to the war and Hitler's hunger
  150. 5:36plan. The architect was an agricultural
  151. 5:38official named Herbert Backe. And the
  152. 5:41logic was coldly practical. Germany
  153. 5:44wanted the food grown in the Soviet
  154. 5:45breadbasket to feed its own army and
  155. 5:47people. So, the plan would have diverted
  156. 5:50that food westward. The planners wrote
  157. 5:52that number down, 20 to 30 million
  158. 5:54people in the occupied East were
  159. 5:56expected to starve to death.
  160. 5:58I mean, the Nazis understood that going
  161. 6:00in and it was part of the policy. His
  162. 6:02model for all this was the United States
  163. 6:05and he said so explicitly in his
  164. 6:06writings. In fact, he considered the
  165. 6:08Slavs he planned to clear off the land
  166. 6:10to be the new Native Americans.
  167. 6:13He looked at what European settlers had
  168. 6:14done in the Americas and he was going to
  169. 6:16use that as a guide. The resettlement
  170. 6:18plans got very specific. Crimea was to
  171. 6:20be cleared and handed to German
  172. 6:22settlers. Great highways would push East
  173. 6:25into the conquered land with new German
  174. 6:27towns strung along the way, all built
  175. 6:29with slave labor. Phase three was meant
  176. 6:31to come later.
  177. 6:32After taking Europe, Hitler expected to
  178. 6:34claw back Germany's old African colonies
  179. 6:37and help redraw the continent under Axis
  180. 6:39control. He was even counting on regimes
  181. 6:42like apartheid South Africa as
  182. 6:44sympathetic partners, not enemies. So,
  183. 6:46the Nazi genocide that we saw killed
  184. 6:49over 12 million people, but that was
  185. 6:51only the opening act. The full plan for
  186. 6:53the East would have stacked tens of
  187. 6:55millions more on top of that in a
  188. 6:57deliberate, organized genocide running
  189. 7:00across the continent. As always with the
  190. 7:02Nazis, this wasn't a mob of thugs
  191. 7:04figuring things out as they went along.
  192. 7:06Heinrich Himmler ran the machine and
  193. 7:08even had professors design the racial
  194. 7:10classification systems that would decide
  195. 7:12who lived, who died, and who became
  196. 7:15slaves.
  197. 7:16It was genocide with footnotes. While
  198. 7:18all this was being planned, Hitler was
  199. 7:20moving forward with his favorite
  200. 7:22architect, Albert Speer, on a project
  201. 7:24they called Germania. It was a total
  202. 7:27rebuild of Berlin as the capital of the
  203. 7:28world. The centerpiece was a hall meant
  204. 7:31to hold 180,000 people with a dome
  205. 7:34bigger than St. Peter's in Rome and with
  206. 7:37a triumphal arch big enough to fit the
  207. 7:39Arc de Triomphe several times over.
  208. 7:42Their aim was also to reshape religion
  209. 7:44as well.
  210. 7:45We tend to picture the Nazis as just
  211. 7:47being cynical about religion, you know,
  212. 7:49willing to use the church when it was
  213. 7:50convenient and ignored otherwise. But
  214. 7:53they were planning on destroying it as
  215. 7:55potential opposition. Inside Germany,
  216. 7:57they even had a name for the halfway
  217. 7:59step, positive Christianity. It sounded
  218. 8:02harmless, but in practice, it meant
  219. 8:04stripping out the parts of the faith
  220. 8:06that clashed with the Nazi doctrine.
  221. 8:09Downplaying the divinity of Christ,
  222. 8:11erasing his Jewishness, minimizing the
  223. 8:13Old Testament, and tying what was left
  224. 8:16to the cult of the Führer.
  225. 8:18It was marketed as a more German
  226. 8:19Christianity, but the point was to bend
  227. 8:22the church around the state. Long-term,
  228. 8:25they wanted Christianity gone from
  229. 8:27Germany altogether. Now, there's a
  230. 8:28famous 30-point program for a so-called
  231. 8:31National Reich Church that gets quoted
  232. 8:33everywhere. Bibles being replaced by
  233. 8:35Mein Kampf, crosses replaced by
  234. 8:37swastikas, but the wartime Gestapo
  235. 8:40traced it to a single zealot, so it
  236. 8:42wasn't official policy and the state
  237. 8:44really never adopted it. But what isn't
  238. 8:46in doubt is that Alfred Rosenberg, the
  239. 8:48Nazi Party's main architect on religion,
  240. 8:51intended to hollow out German
  241. 8:53Christianity and eventually replace it
  242. 8:55with something built around blood and
  243. 8:57nation. Before the war, he'd already
  244. 8:59been put in charge of the party's
  245. 9:01philosophical education, which meant
  246. 9:03shaping the worldview of storm troopers,
  247. 9:05Hitler Youth, and rank-and-file Nazis.
  248. 9:08Church leaders in the 1930s saw his rise
  249. 9:11to power and openly worried that the
  250. 9:13state had just put an anti-Christian
  251. 9:15crusader in charge of the nation's soul,
  252. 9:17and they weren't wrong. And the church
  253. 9:19was already bending.
  254. 9:21In 1938, about 90% of Germany's
  255. 9:24Protestant pastors swore personal oaths
  256. 9:27of loyalty to Hitler. I mean, the
  257. 9:28wording was pretty blunt. I swear that I
  258. 9:30will be loyal and obedient to the Führer
  259. 9:32of the German Reich and nation, Adolf
  260. 9:35Hitler, so help me God. So, the regime
  261. 9:38didn't have to break the church by force
  262. 9:40because intimidation was already working
  263. 9:42pretty well. But even if Hitler won on
  264. 9:44the battlefield, the government he
  265. 9:46created had some fundamental problems
  266. 9:48and in many ways was built to break.
  267. 9:51Start with the money. The Nazi economy
  268. 9:53was It was a time bomb and the regime
  269. 9:56knew it. Germany was chronically short
  270. 9:58of the foreign currency it needed for
  271. 9:59raw materials, lurching from one
  272. 10:01exchange crisis to another throughout
  273. 10:03the 1930s. The rearmament boom, tanks,
  274. 10:06planes, uniforms, they ran on Mefo
  275. 10:08bills, government IOUs that were
  276. 10:11basically printed promises to pay later.
  277. 10:14Those promises came with a countdown and
  278. 10:16the maturities were all due between 1939
  279. 10:18and 1942. So, the war was essential if
  280. 10:22Hitler wanted to keep dodging the bill
  281. 10:23collectors. There was a four-year plan
  282. 10:25that was supposed to make Germany
  283. 10:27self-sufficient, but it failed. The
  284. 10:29economy, it ran on conquest. It had to
  285. 10:32keep swallowing territory to loot the
  286. 10:34resources, seize gold, grab slave labor.
  287. 10:37If they stopped conquering, the math
  288. 10:39collapsed. Now, that said, it wouldn't
  289. 10:42have collapsed overnight. There was a
  290. 10:43less accepted view from economists
  291. 10:45working in Britain in the late 1930s.
  292. 10:47Thomas Balogh and Claude Gibault, they
  293. 10:50pushed back on the popular idea that
  294. 10:52Germany was about to fall apart. In
  295. 10:54their view, the Nazi system was tougher
  296. 10:56than the people wanted to believe and it
  297. 10:58was held together by raw authoritarian
  298. 11:00control. So, from their point of view, a
  299. 11:03victorious Germany, it could have limped
  300. 11:05along a lot longer than we would have
  301. 11:07like to have thought. But perhaps a more
  302. 11:08urgent problem for the Third Reich was
  303. 11:11keeping the conquered under control.
  304. 11:13Look at Yugoslavia. Germany had to keep
  305. 11:15over a half million Axis troops just to
  306. 11:18hold on to the place. And they got
  307. 11:19vicious about it, as they always did.
  308. 11:22They had orders to execute 50 to 100
  309. 11:24civilians for every German soldier
  310. 11:25killed. Now, that was brutal, but those
  311. 11:28reprisals, they only increased the
  312. 11:30resistance because genocide often makes
  313. 11:33the problem worse. When the only
  314. 11:35alternative is death,
  315. 11:37people don't always lie down. They fight
  316. 11:39because they've got nothing left to
  317. 11:41lose.
  318. 11:42Mass murder gives every able-bodied
  319. 11:44person a reason to pick up a rifle.
  320. 11:46Doesn't always happen, but sometimes it
  321. 11:48does. Now, spread that across an entire
  322. 11:50conquered continent, the ones that are
  323. 11:52marked for slavery or removal or death,
  324. 11:55and the Nazis could have been stamping
  325. 11:57out fires in a lot of places. On top of
  326. 11:59that mess, they had some serious
  327. 12:01political infighting, always. The Nazi
  328. 12:04leadership, it was a pit of vipers even
  329. 12:06in peacetime.
  330. 12:08Himmler, Göring, Goebbels, they were
  331. 12:10always angling for power. A movement
  332. 12:12built on a single strong man has an
  333. 12:14obvious problem. Hitler even tried to
  334. 12:16solve his succession problem as early as
  335. 12:181941. He signed a formal decree naming
  336. 12:21Göring as his heir. But 4 years later,
  337. 12:24he'd stripped him of all those titles
  338. 12:26and ordered him arrested for treason.
  339. 12:28Then he did the same thing with Himmler
  340. 12:30days before his own death. The two men
  341. 12:32he'd officially designated as his heirs
  342. 12:34both ended up thrown out before the end.
  343. 12:37And the problems weren't just internal.
  344. 12:38On paper, Germany and Japan were
  345. 12:40partners. They even split the world
  346. 12:42between them, drawing a line down the
  347. 12:4470th meridian. Germany claimed
  348. 12:46everything west of it, Japan everything
  349. 12:48east. But nobody serious in Berlin
  350. 12:51thought that those borders would outlast
  351. 12:52the war. Once Japan had done the dirty
  352. 12:54work in China and the Pacific, the plan
  353. 12:56was to turn on them as well. I mean,
  354. 12:59when you've built a movement based on
  355. 13:00Aryan racial superiority, the Japanese,
  356. 13:03well, they just didn't fit that bill.
  357. 13:05The regime had tried to get around that
  358. 13:07by slapping the label honorary Aryan on
  359. 13:09the Japanese and kind of hoping nobody
  360. 13:11would laugh. And some theorists even
  361. 13:13went further, tying themselves in knots
  362. 13:15to argue that the Japanese were an Aryan
  363. 13:18people of the East who developed
  364. 13:20independently. But not even Japan was
  365. 13:22fooled with that stuff. It refused to
  366. 13:24hand over Jewish communities in its
  367. 13:26territories. It rejected the Nazi racial
  368. 13:28doctrine outright, and it ran its own
  369. 13:31war largely independent of Berlin. A
  370. 13:33victorious Axis doesn't give you a
  371. 13:35stable new order. It gives you two tired
  372. 13:39conquerors eyeing each other across that
  373. 13:41Meridian, each planning to betray the
  374. 13:43other. Winning the war wouldn't have
  375. 13:45ended the wars. It would have just
  376. 13:46decided who fought whom next.
  377. 13:49So, look, this is a good time to mention
  378. 13:51that if I get any serious facts wrong
  379. 13:52here, let me know in the comments. I'll
  380. 13:54address it in a pinned comment below.
  381. 13:56Down there, you'll see sources and
  382. 13:58research notes as well. All right. So,
  383. 14:00Hitler kind of thought America was a
  384. 14:02joke. And he never took seriously the
  385. 14:05America problem that was going to await
  386. 14:07him after the war. He called Americans a
  387. 14:09race of mongrels, and he assumed the
  388. 14:11country would rot from the inside long
  389. 14:14before it could ever threaten him. As
  390. 14:15late as 1944, when American tanks,
  391. 14:18planes, and men were doing the heavy
  392. 14:20lifting in Western Europe, Hitler was
  393. 14:22still more worried about Britain than
  394. 14:24about the United States. And the
  395. 14:26economic and military production power
  396. 14:28of the United States, it was massive. I
  397. 14:30mean, numbers that were larger than
  398. 14:32Germany and most of Europe combined. In
  399. 14:345 years, America produced over 300,000
  400. 14:37aircraft, 100,000 ships, and millions of
  401. 14:41vehicles. But, Hitler's contempt came
  402. 14:43with a theory.
  403. 14:44America was spiritually weak. In his
  404. 14:47mind, it was addicted to consumer
  405. 14:49comforts, divided by immigrants, and
  406. 14:51corrupted by Jewish influences. He
  407. 14:53figured that kind of society wouldn't
  408. 14:55hold up under any kind of a serious
  409. 14:57stress, and it would eventually tear
  410. 14:59itself apart on its own.
  411. 15:01His military planners, though, they
  412. 15:02weren't so sure, and they had some ideas
  413. 15:04of their own. One program was nicknamed
  414. 15:06the America bomber. It was a serious
  415. 15:09effort to design a long-range aircraft
  416. 15:11that could fly from Europe, hit New
  417. 15:13York, and then just not bother coming
  418. 15:15back. Their V2 rocket scientists, they
  419. 15:18sketched out a two-stage monster, some
  420. 15:21called the America rocket. And it was an
  421. 15:23intercontinental missile meant to lift
  422. 15:25off in Europe and come down on the East
  423. 15:27Coast. As an alternative, they even
  424. 15:30plotted towing rockets across the
  425. 15:32Atlantic behind submarines if the
  426. 15:34intercontinental things didn't fly.
  427. 15:36Every one of those plans was meant to
  428. 15:37tackle the same problem. Germany just
  429. 15:40couldn't get an army across the Atlantic
  430. 15:42Ocean.
  431. 15:43I mean, even if they could bomb cities,
  432. 15:45you can't occupy a country that you
  433. 15:47can't reach with troops. So, that's why
  434. 15:49most historians think that a post-war
  435. 15:51reality would have been a sort of
  436. 15:53permanent Cold War with Nazi-controlled
  437. 15:56Europe on one side and an isolated and
  438. 15:58untouchable United States on the other.
  439. 16:01Now, that standoff probably wouldn't
  440. 16:03have left America untouched internally
  441. 16:05though. Because a democracy locked in a
  442. 16:07permanent Cold War with a continent-size
  443. 16:10fascist state, that would have instilled
  444. 16:12fear here. It would have likely been a
  445. 16:14more extreme version of the Cold War
  446. 16:16with the Soviet Union. And that kept
  447. 16:18America with a big military,
  448. 16:20McCarthyism, and red scares, nuclear
  449. 16:22drills in schools. Against a more
  450. 16:24powerful, vicious Nazi regime,
  451. 16:27America would have been fixated on that
  452. 16:29threat for as long as it existed. How
  453. 16:31would that have affected the United
  454. 16:32States?
  455. 16:33You know, it's not hard to imagine
  456. 16:35loyalty oaths turning into loyalty tests
  457. 16:37or emergency powers becoming more normal
  458. 16:40powers. And the line between security
  459. 16:42state and police state getting blurrier
  460. 16:45every year.
  461. 16:46Internally, America could have looked
  462. 16:48like a different country than the one
  463. 16:50that entered the war. But for a time at
  464. 16:52least, there would have been an ace that
  465. 16:54only the United States had.
  466. 16:56Nuclear weapons.
  467. 16:57The irony is that German scientists got
  468. 16:59there first on the pure science.
  469. 17:02In 1938, German scientists split the
  470. 17:04atom in Berlin, discovering nuclear
  471. 17:06fission. Then, they walked away from it.
  472. 17:09In 1942, Hitler's people told him a bomb
  473. 17:12wasn't coming in any useful time frame,
  474. 17:14so the priority dropped. I mean, German
  475. 17:17teams, they never achieved a sustained
  476. 17:19chain reaction.
  477. 17:21They didn't lose the nuclear race as
  478. 17:22much as just wander away from it. By
  479. 17:251948, the United States had about 50
  480. 17:27atomic bombs. Germany, even in a total
  481. 17:30victory scenario, almost certainly had
  482. 17:33zero, at least for a while. So, Germany
  483. 17:35owns the continent, America owns the
  484. 17:38nuclear bombs.
  485. 17:39But, would they have used them?
  486. 17:41Well, as we saw in Japan, and I did a
  487. 17:42whole video on this, the US military,
  488. 17:45they didn't have the kind of special
  489. 17:47moral qualms towards nuclear bombs that
  490. 17:49we have today. There wasn't a whole lot
  491. 17:51of debate by Truman or the generals.
  492. 17:53They were happy to have a big bomb to
  493. 17:55end the war that was killing Americans,
  494. 17:57and they used it as soon as they could.
  495. 17:59The only real variable in this scenario
  496. 18:01is when Hitler's win happens. If it
  497. 18:04comes early, before the United States is
  498. 18:06committed into Europe, there's no war
  499. 18:08left to end with a bomb, and no reason
  500. 18:10to use one. If it comes later, after
  501. 18:12years of fighting and thousands of
  502. 18:14American deaths, Truman probably uses it
  503. 18:17the moment he can, the same as he did
  504. 18:19with Japan. That nuclear advantage,
  505. 18:21though, doesn't last forever.
  506. 18:23Once Germany builds its own bombs, the
  507. 18:25US loses its one-sided leverage, and
  508. 18:28you're back to a stalemate. I came out
  509. 18:30of this less sure that the Nazis were
  510. 18:31doomed, and more sure about how much it
  511. 18:34mattered. So, a successful Germany in
  512. 18:36Europe, look, that wasn't going to last
  513. 18:38a thousand years. It just had too many
  514. 18:40headwinds and problems within it. So,
  515. 18:43that Reich would have collapsed at some
  516. 18:45point, but that could have been 10
  517. 18:46years. That could have been 50 years.
  518. 18:48And that gap, that means tens of
  519. 18:51millions of people dead. So, doomed
  520. 18:53eventually isn't the same as being
  521. 18:55stopped the way it was.
  522. 18:57What we know is that freedom wasn't
  523. 18:59inevitable. It got chosen by real people
  524. 19:02in real moments who could have chosen
  525. 19:03otherwise. And by most reasonable looks
  526. 19:06at the past, Germany could have won
  527. 19:08Europe, but America would have been the
  528. 19:10the to win the century. History has a
  529. 19:12way of creating questions that sometimes
  530. 19:14seem obvious until you dig into them
  531. 19:16deeper. World War II certainly. And so
  532. 19:19does the modern Middle East. And there
  533. 19:21one thing I could never understand about
  534. 19:23the war in Gaza was that despite most of
  535. 19:25them being forced from their homes, not
  536. 19:28one Arab country ever offered to take in
  537. 19:31any of their refugees. In fact, it was
  538. 19:33very much the opposite. The answer isn't
  539. 19:35simple. I mean, it has to do with
  540. 19:37histories in multiple countries over
  541. 19:39different generations. This video
  542. 19:41explains that all and I think you might
  543. 19:43find that interesting.
  544. 19:44Hey, thank you so much for your time. I
  545. 19:46hope this look at the past was worth
  546. 19:48your while. Until next time.

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