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Heiko Thieme: Jetzt kommen die Midterms: Korrektur oder Mega-Chance für Anleger? — Transcript

by Carola Ferstl Money Talk · 4,836 words · 703 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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  1. 0:01So, whenever things get exciting, we
  2. 0:03have a very special guest. Heiko Time
  3. 0:04is with us once again. Dear Heiko, it's
  4. 0:06great that you have the time. As we
  5. 0:08know, the Midterms are in America next
  6. 0:11week. Have you already bought popcorn
  7. 0:13to sit in front of the TV?
  8. 0:15>> I'm not a popcorn enthusiast. There are
  9. 0:18other things I like to have, but there
  10. 0:20are various different things. Maybe I'd
  11. 0:22have a Cava to drink if the result
  12. 0:24turns out the way I hope, but Cava is
  13. 0:26the champagne or sparkling wine of
  14. 0:28Spain, very good. Now don't
  15. 0:29underestimate it, you don't have to
  16. 0:31spend $ 60 for the bottle. You can do
  17. 0:34it for 15 euros too. You can even do it
  18. 0:36for 5 euros. So I’m quite rational
  19. 0:38there, and the evening will of course
  20. 0:40be exciting. I also have my colleague
  21. 0:43here, Andreas Grossarbeit, we will
  22. 0:45follow it together and bring a special
  23. 0:47broadcast the next day to put things
  24. 0:50into perspective. It is the most
  25. 0:52important day of the year. I will link
  26. 0:55everything here for you if you want to
  27. 0:57join Heiko for the Midterms, and yes,
  28. 0:59Heiko is no longer in America, even
  29. 1:01though he was a huge fan of America for
  30. 1:03many decades. And we’ll get into that
  31. 1:06a bit later. But before we talk a bit
  32. 1:09about the Midterms and Donald Trump's
  33. 1:12prospects—he isn't on the ballot, but
  34. 1:14it's practically a vote on him—it
  35. 1:16will be decided next Tuesday and the
  36. 1:19result is quite open, it must be said.
  37. 1:22>> We'll talk about that in a moment,
  38. 1:24because there is quite a bit to
  39. 1:25consider. For example, his buddy Elon
  40. 1:27Musk, who has put a lot of money into
  41. 1:28it. But wait, wait, wait. First, we
  42. 1:31want to assess the market, as we are
  43. 1:32recording this on Wednesday the 28th,
  44. 1:34in the afternoon. And today, there are
  45. 1:37very important things that are also
  46. 1:39relevant for the stock market, and we
  47. 1:42have the American central bank meeting.
  48. 1:45And now the big question is: the new
  49. 1:47central bank chief is also a buddy of
  50. 1:49Trump's, and surely he will do him a
  51. 1:51favor today and leave interest rates
  52. 1:53untouched. You're right, although a
  53. 1:56rate hike would be rationally correct,
  54. 1:58just before such an election, to remain
  55. 2:01neutral, they won't do anything and
  56. 2:03will say we are remaining neutral. That
  57. 2:05is to be expected. An interest rate
  58. 2:08hike will come again before the year is
  59. 2:09out, that would be the second one. He's
  60. 2:12not doing a bad job, but what I notice,
  61. 2:14and I'm not entirely sure, is that he
  62. 2:16doesn't want to make any statements. I
  63. 2:18would set the trend. I wouldn't say
  64. 2:20Powell was more agreeable because we
  65. 2:22tell you what occupies us; we share our
  66. 2:24opinions with you. If I'm at the
  67. 2:25central bank and am asked where things
  68. 2:27are heading, and they just say they
  69. 2:29have no idea, we don't even want to say
  70. 2:30. That's just not right; it would be
  71. 2:32like if you asked me now, where is the
  72. 2:33stock market headed? I'd say, I have no
  73. 2:35idea. Okay, next question. What should
  74. 2:37we do? No idea. Yeah, well that was
  75. 2:38very nice. Heiko, let's talk again next
  76. 2:40time so that doesn't happen. What will
  77. 2:42happen next week in the elections? No
  78. 2:43idea. He says, well, we all have no
  79. 2:45idea, but you can't fill a program with
  80. 2:47that. You can't inspire people, nor
  81. 2:49encourage them to think. So, no
  82. 2:52decision today, and tomorrow the same
  83. 2:54from Ms. Lagarde for other reasons. She
  84. 2:56has already raised the rates. They can
  85. 2:58afford to take a break. Artificial
  86. 2:59intelligence remains the main topic.
  87. 3:01Then the planned IPO, right, which is
  88. 3:04imminent for Trump Media. We are
  89. 3:07dealing with a gigantonomy here. The
  90. 3:09market, you have to know that. Today,
  91. 3:12anyone who has a billion is actually
  92. 3:14more of a small beggar on the scene
  93. 3:16these days. So if you don't show up
  94. 3:19with 100 billion, you can't make an
  95. 3:20impression. And meanwhile, we also have
  96. 3:23a trillionaire, someone who has a
  97. 3:24trillion so far, it's Elon Musk. He
  98. 3:26will, in the next 12 months I would say
  99. 3:29, there is a high probability that he
  100. 3:31will have double that amount, so 2
  101. 3:33trillion, and will remain the richest
  102. 3:36man in the world by far, and thus far
  103. 3:38exceed the greatest wealth in history
  104. 3:40going back to Babylonian times. That is
  105. 3:43the fact we have. And considering that
  106. 3:46he as a person, now in his mid-50s, 30
  107. 3:49or 40 years ago, he didn't even have 10
  108. 3:52million, I would say. So, they came out
  109. 3:55of nothing, which again shows that
  110. 3:57wealth doesn't have to be earned by
  111. 3:59families, it can be created out of
  112. 4:01nothing. The time where people, who 6
  113. 4:05weeks ago had nothing, suddenly—that
  114. 4:07was the case with Trump Media—become
  115. 4:09multi-billionaires, that's a totally
  116. 4:10new era, but that's not negative, it's
  117. 4:12just a fact you should simply take into
  118. 4:14account.
  119. 4:16>> But have you taken a look at Anthropic,
  120. 4:17while we're on the subject? They've
  121. 4:19just released their prospectus and
  122. 4:21actually intend to go public later this
  123. 4:23year. I believe this will be a litmus
  124. 4:26test for the entire AI industry and
  125. 4:28this whole sector. We are already
  126. 4:31seeing that not everything is going
  127. 4:32perfectly anymore. For instance, we
  128. 4:34have already seen in various markets
  129. 4:37that AI stocks have taken a hit. So,
  130. 4:39there is a lot of skepticism in the
  131. 4:42market. Could Anthropic be the drop
  132. 4:45that makes the bucket overflow, or how
  133. 4:47do you say it?
  134. 4:50>> Yes, or the balloon that’s losing
  135. 4:51some air; it’s clear, it’s like
  136. 4:53climbing the Eiger North Face or
  137. 4:54whatever metaphor I want to use.
  138. 4:57Eventually you reach the peak, and no
  139. 4:58matter how beautiful it is up there,
  140. 5:00you know the next step leads down, no
  141. 5:02matter what you want. And that is what
  142. 5:05we are experiencing right now—an
  143. 5:06breathtaking development with AI,
  144. 5:08artificial intelligence, so far, and I
  145. 5:10don't know which of the viewers have
  146. 5:12been engaging with it. Those listening
  147. 5:15to this show have never used AI, never
  148. 5:19used ChatGPT, or Gemini, or Claude.
  149. 5:23Well, they are living in the past. They
  150. 5:26are living in the Middle Ages, to put
  151. 5:27it bluntly. Four months ago, I had no
  152. 5:29idea about ChatGPT. I had heard of it,
  153. 5:31but never used it. Now there isn't a
  154. 5:34day where I don't engage with this
  155. 5:36artificial intelligence at least a
  156. 5:37dozen times to gather information
  157. 5:39because it’s faster than anything
  158. 5:41we’ve had before. It makes work
  159. 5:44easier, it also shows you a certain
  160. 5:46knowledge gap you might have with
  161. 5:48historical data you once thought were
  162. 5:50facts, only for it to be revised when
  163. 5:53you realize you were using the wrong
  164. 5:55facts. So it really is a living
  165. 5:58encyclopedia that is constantly up to
  166. 5:59date and presents new developments. For
  167. 6:02me, it’s a fascination that such a
  168. 6:04breakthrough can happen. Yes, of course
  169. 6:07. I compare it to Gutenberg and his
  170. 6:09printing press. That revolutionized the
  171. 6:11world; every monk complained, of course
  172. 6:13, that they couldn't copy manuscripts
  173. 6:15anymore, or rather that the future of
  174. 6:17copying was being limited. "A printing
  175. 6:19press will do that soon, for God's sake
  176. 6:21, what is happening there?" No, this is
  177. 6:23something we have to accept if we want
  178. 6:25to keep up with the trend. But there is
  179. 6:29also fraud, and that can affect all of
  180. 6:31us as well. It's just like with ATMs
  181. 6:34over there, too. ATMs are fantastic.
  182. 6:36You have to be careful, as there can be
  183. 6:38fraud there as well. You have to
  184. 6:39implement the corresponding measures or
  185. 6:42safeguards. We have to look at the
  186. 6:44entire structure; whoever rejects it
  187. 6:46and wants to keep living in the woods
  188. 6:49can do so, but that’s not where the
  189. 6:51future lies.
  190. 6:53>> But the question now, of course, is
  191. 6:54what this means for our money? And I
  192. 6:57believe that with the company data we
  193. 6:59are now receiving from the major
  194. 7:01hyperscalers, the market really wants
  195. 7:03to see that these huge investments
  196. 7:05being made—setting aside the great
  197. 7:07vision, which is there—that these
  198. 7:10huge investments are actually bearing
  199. 7:12fruit. So that really is the big topic
  200. 7:15for all these stocks at the moment. So
  201. 7:17AI is being put to the test.
  202. 7:19>> That is correct. And if you look at
  203. 7:22what we’ve seen with the tech stocks:
  204. 7:24Micron Technology has risen
  205. 7:25fantastically, hasn't it? So many
  206. 7:28stocks that one could see in the market
  207. 7:30, where you can say, the guy with his
  208. 7:32company—he was the richest man a year
  209. 7:34ago—is a year younger than I am. The
  210. 7:36man is an adopted child from Chicago.
  211. 7:39You really have to listen to his story.
  212. 7:40I think his adoptive father told him he
  213. 7:42would never amount to anything in life.
  214. 7:45Well, he was certainly wrong about that
  215. 7:46. The man was the richest person in the
  216. 7:48world a year ago. Then, out of those
  217. 7:50600 billion, he still has 250 billion
  218. 7:52now. So should I feel sorry for him? No
  219. 7:53, that would be wrong. He knows what he
  220. 7:55wants. He is fully involved in the
  221. 7:57business and needs money in the
  222. 7:59double-digit billions. He will not only
  223. 8:01survive but will also be successful.
  224. 8:03But in the entire sector, we have a,
  225. 8:05let’s say, huge demand for these data
  226. 8:07centers, and I want to make a very
  227. 8:09simple forecast. You don’t need much
  228. 8:11imagination for that. Not all of these
  229. 8:13data centers will be successful. It’s
  230. 8:16like suddenly saying we’ve discovered
  231. 8:18the supermarket. The supermarket is
  232. 8:19great, and everyone builds the same
  233. 8:21store in a town of maybe 50,000 people.
  234. 8:23Then two of them would go bankrupt. If
  235. 8:24you then have 25 supermarkets, you can
  236. 8:26say one of them won't survive the next
  237. 8:2710 years because there are simply too
  238. 8:29many. That’s exactly it; you separate
  239. 8:32the wheat from the chaff, and that’s
  240. 8:34what we’re facing in the coming years
  241. 8:36, including with chips. With chips, we
  242. 8:38said: That’s Trump-style thinking,
  243. 8:40yes, we won’t give the chips to the
  244. 8:41Chinese, we don't want to be the
  245. 8:43dominant people. And then the NVIDIA
  246. 8:45CEO, Huang, who comes from Taiwan, says
  247. 8:47: Guys, I can only recommend, let our
  248. 8:49chips go to China. Why? Because if the
  249. 8:53Chinese get them from us, they won't
  250. 8:54put as many people to work developing
  251. 8:56their own chips. If they are blocked,
  252. 8:58they say we have four times as many
  253. 9:00engineers as the Americans have. And
  254. 9:02even if half of the engineers in China
  255. 9:04weren't worth much—I’m speaking
  256. 9:06hypothetically now—they would still
  257. 9:08have 100%more engineers than the
  258. 9:09Americans. So, by definition, they will
  259. 9:12produce a successful chip by the end of
  260. 9:14the decade faster than they currently
  261. 9:17have. And you can perhaps already see
  262. 9:19that the chips in China are comparable
  263. 9:21and in some things even superior to
  264. 9:23ours. The market must be open. Trump
  265. 9:26never really grasped that with his
  266. 9:28tariffs, his punitive duties, and so on
  267. 9:30. An open market has moved the world
  268. 9:32forward. The goal is to build bridges
  269. 9:35and not create walls. We saw that in
  270. 9:37Germany. A wall can last a few decades,
  271. 9:39but in the end, it falls; the bridges
  272. 9:41are the decisive factor. We also saw
  273. 9:42that with the Kerch Bridge, what was
  274. 9:44destroyed there. So, you can just say:
  275. 9:47Folks, please just think rationally
  276. 9:48about what we have here.
  277. 9:51>> And interestingly, well, I’m going to
  278. 9:53China in December; we really hear very
  279. 9:55little from the Chinese AI industry. In
  280. 9:58fact, these open-weight models are
  281. 10:00being used much more extensively and by
  282. 10:01developers in the Western world than we
  283. 10:03would like to admit. And that is very
  284. 10:06exciting. I’m looking forward to it.
  285. 10:07I am really looking forward to the trip
  286. 10:09and seeing companies there. I will, of
  287. 10:11course, report on potential
  288. 10:12applications here on the channel. Write
  289. 10:14in the comments if you want us to dive
  290. 10:16deeper into the topic of AI and do
  291. 10:18individual shows on it, because I want
  292. 10:20to talk to Heiko about other topics now
  293. 10:22, of course. And there, for example, we
  294. 10:24have something I’m currently
  295. 10:26researching for a column that I will
  296. 10:28publish on Sunday in Bild am Sonntag:
  297. 10:30the auto industry. We got the figures
  298. 10:32from Mercedes, and they were actually
  299. 10:34quite good. The outlook isn't actually
  300. 10:36that bad, I believe, but nonetheless,
  301. 10:38you have to say that the sentiment
  302. 10:39toward German automakers in particular
  303. 10:41is at rock bottom. What is your
  304. 10:43explanation for that? I know you've
  305. 10:45been on my show repeatedly regarding
  306. 10:47Volkswagen, and you keep sticking with
  307. 10:49it, but do people actually still want
  308. 10:50cars? Especially Germans? I would say
  309. 10:54yes, because we have the best engineers
  310. 10:57. You can count on us; we don't deceive
  311. 11:00people with diesel scandals and so on.
  312. 11:02But looking at where we are now, on
  313. 11:04that basis, with the stock at € 70,
  314. 11:07what could possibly go wrong? That VW
  315. 11:10will go down the drain and cease to
  316. 11:12exist, I consider to be very, very
  317. 11:14unlikely. The probability for that is
  318. 11:17under 5%, so I look at the 95%, and the
  319. 11:19question is what—I'm not saying this,
  320. 11:21I'm not the analyst, not the strategist
  321. 11:23—I look at what the analysts say.
  322. 11:26Analysts assume that the price could
  323. 11:27rise above the € 100 mark. I wouldn't
  324. 11:29consider that unusual. The stock is
  325. 11:31coming from 250, or 252 to be exact. So
  326. 11:34I see that as a possibility. I would
  327. 11:36keep VW on my list. Now here is the "
  328. 11:39but": I never invest in just one asset.
  329. 11:41No matter what it is, even if it were
  330. 11:44to go up 10,000%, I only invest a
  331. 11:46maximum of 3%in one asset. That is the
  332. 11:48diversification I preach, with a total
  333. 11:51of 30 positions in the portfolio—and
  334. 11:53by the way, if I may plug my book,
  335. 11:55which was created as a bestseller
  336. 11:57finance book this year, anyone can read
  337. 11:59it or get the audiobook to know what my
  338. 12:02idea is. I’m not saying I have the
  339. 12:04right idea; I just have an idea. I
  340. 12:05express this idea very clearly. I try
  341. 12:07to have a clear idea and suggestions
  342. 12:09for solutions for almost all problems,
  343. 12:12and as long as I can think and speak
  344. 12:14reasonably and present full sentences,
  345. 12:16I will continue to do so.
  346. 12:19>> Yes, but if we look at the car market a
  347. 12:21bit more closely, even the Chinese
  348. 12:22aren't doing that well at the moment. I
  349. 12:25mean, BYD was always described as the
  350. 12:27big new era of Chinese cars, but it
  351. 12:29seems there are problems with
  352. 12:31overcapacity there as well.
  353. 12:33>> That is correct. The car—if I may say
  354. 12:36so right away—the BYD is a top-tier
  355. 12:37car. So if I compare it with Mercedes,
  356. 12:40I would say the BYD is more attractive;
  357. 12:42that is my personal critique, that is a
  358. 12:44personal critique. I drive a Renault
  359. 12:46because of my family; my father-in-law
  360. 12:49was one of the three highest-ranking
  361. 12:51people, an executive at Renault. But
  362. 12:54it's a good car, the Renault, but I
  363. 12:56tell myself: If I take a Mercedes now
  364. 12:58in terms of luxury and looks, and a BYD
  365. 13:00, I would lean more toward BYD. When I
  366. 13:02sit inside, strictly speaking, I also
  367. 13:04look at—that's still my business—
  368. 13:06the price-performance ratio, which is
  369. 13:09crucial in the stock market; the
  370. 13:10price-earnings ratio and the value are
  371. 13:13optimal, and that’s a very valid
  372. 13:15point. The share price is anything but
  373. 13:17positive, and yet I recommend it
  374. 13:18precisely because of that—because
  375. 13:20it’s a good idea. Of course, I’m
  376. 13:22not allowed to call it a recommendation
  377. 13:24, which is nonsense, but that’s what
  378. 13:25the legislators say, so let’s be
  379. 13:27careful, but I’ll say: As an idea,
  380. 13:29BYD is interesting to me. I don’t
  381. 13:31think it just looks like that, but they
  382. 13:32are also a battery manufacturer, which
  383. 13:34gives them enormous advantages. That
  384. 13:36would be the alternative for me, so
  385. 13:38what do I do? I invest up to 3%in BYD
  386. 13:41and also 3%in VW. I could, of course,
  387. 13:45add Mercedes to that as well. I was
  388. 13:50>> could then also add Audi. Let’s leave
  389. 13:53everything else out, otherwise I’d be
  390. 13:55diversifying too much; overall, the
  391. 13:57global automotive sector can make up
  392. 13:59between 7 and a maximum of 10%of a
  393. 14:01portfolio.
  394. 14:03>> But the point is—and we’ll conclude
  395. 14:05the topic of cars with this—if you
  396. 14:06look at General Motors, the stock has
  397. 14:08done well. I mean, they have huge share
  398. 14:11buyback programs, which obviously
  399. 14:13improves the optics a bit, but what are
  400. 14:14they doing differently? Or are they
  401. 14:17simply in the promised land of
  402. 14:18combustion engines, where they can
  403. 14:20still sell all those big monster cars?
  404. 14:22That might also be coming to an end
  405. 14:24soon if the oil price continues to rise
  406. 14:25. So, I have been saying for some time
  407. 14:28that the combustion engine is here to
  408. 14:30stay. But looking at it today, I’ve
  409. 14:32changed my mind a bit. The combustion
  410. 14:34engine stays as long as refueling or
  411. 14:36charging—especially with EVs—is
  412. 14:38difficult, or because you have to look
  413. 14:40for a place to charge after just 100 or
  414. 14:43200 km, which is absurd. That is no
  415. 14:45longer the case today. When I drive a
  416. 14:47car—it’s a hybrid, by the way,
  417. 14:49because it’s both; Toyota actually
  418. 14:51made this happen, which makes Toyota a
  419. 14:53good company and shows their foresight
  420. 14:56—if I can drive: the maximum your
  421. 14:58listeners drive in their lives is about
  422. 15:001,000 km a day. I think there will be
  423. 15:02few who have driven more than that.
  424. 15:04I've done it, haven't I, driven a bit
  425. 15:05more, but it happens very rarely.
  426. 15:08Normally people want to drive at least
  427. 15:10500 km and then you have to think about
  428. 15:12where to charge, where to eat, and so
  429. 15:14on. Absolute utter nonsense. That won't
  430. 15:16even be an issue in the next 10 years.
  431. 15:19Batteries will be much better by then,
  432. 15:21and then we can switch completely to
  433. 15:23battery power. Yes, but hybrids have an
  434. 15:26advantage, of course, because
  435. 15:28electricity prices can sometimes be
  436. 15:29higher, can't they? Compared to
  437. 15:32gasoline, having a mix is something I
  438. 15:34don't mind. I think hybrid is a good
  439. 15:37compromise, knowing that ultimately,
  440. 15:40say in 30 or 40 years, gas cars will be
  441. 15:43something you just look at in a
  442. 15:45showroom or a museum. You know, like
  443. 15:49when you see an old car today, a '32 or
  444. 15:51'35 Bentley, but you don't drive it
  445. 15:53every day. And then we'll truly have
  446. 15:55EVs, but charging won't matter anymore,
  447. 15:58taking 10 minutes like at a gas station
  448. 16:00, and then it's fully charged and ready
  449. 16:02to drive. But different things will
  450. 16:05combine, and besides, driving will
  451. 16:07naturally be different. Why? Because
  452. 16:10with autonomous driving, many people
  453. 16:12won't own cars anymore. We know many
  454. 16:14young people, my children for instance,
  455. 16:16they don't have cars anymore. They say,
  456. 16:18"I don't need one." I can call an Uber,
  457. 16:20you know, and it doesn't cost that much
  458. 16:22. So, that will be a big change. This
  459. 16:24means the garage space that is the norm
  460. 16:27for a house today will be just that. In
  461. 16:3020 or 30 years, it will be the
  462. 16:31exception. Like a house without a
  463. 16:32garage, we don't even have a garage
  464. 16:33ourselves. You order the car, the car
  465. 16:36comes without a driver, available at
  466. 16:38any time. So, living conditions are
  467. 16:40changing dramatically. It's like asking
  468. 16:43what life was like before we had
  469. 16:44washing machines, right? What did we
  470. 16:46have before airplanes, the Wright
  471. 16:48brothers, you know, making the first
  472. 16:50flights? The world is constantly
  473. 16:52changing and actually improving. And
  474. 16:55the global warming question remains,
  475. 16:57but we will get a handle on it. Why?
  476. 16:59Because the world population is
  477. 17:00starting to shrink, although most
  478. 17:01people haven't even realized it yet.
  479. 17:03You have to look at the latest studies
  480. 17:04for that. China will go from its
  481. 17:06current 1.4 billion people to, by their
  482. 17:08own projections, I believe, between 700
  483. 17:10and 800 million by the end of the
  484. 17:12century. That means, if we take the
  485. 17:15lower figure—let's say 800 million—
  486. 17:18then you have 600 million fewer people
  487. 17:20than today. Basically, all of Europe
  488. 17:23vanishes between now and the end of the
  489. 17:26century, plus another 150 million on
  490. 17:28top of that; the whole development, and
  491. 17:30China isn't the only one with this
  492. 17:32trend. We in Europe have a negative
  493. 17:34growth rate. That’s why when we say "
  494. 17:37foreigners out," it's a bad proposal.
  495. 17:39Just take a look at Germany without
  496. 17:41foreigners. You wouldn't have hospitals
  497. 17:43left, you wouldn't have schools left
  498. 17:45that need teaching staff. You wouldn't
  499. 17:47have service staff, you wouldn't have
  500. 17:48specialists left for most of the jobs
  501. 17:50we have. We are a country—if you look
  502. 17:52at history, the "German" is not a type
  503. 17:54that existed in this form 30,000 years
  504. 17:56ago; it changes. No, we have constantly
  505. 17:59evolved, constantly changed, and then
  506. 18:01one was summarized at the end, but
  507. 18:03saying "we want to stay German"...Yes,
  508. 18:05that is nonsense, with all due respect.
  509. 18:08The pleasant part is the flexibility. I
  510. 18:12say that, of course, as someone who has
  511. 18:13been with a woman for 42 years, and my
  512. 18:15wife is French. So, in that respect, I
  513. 18:17can also prove it practically. It’s
  514. 18:19worth looking beyond the horizon. Heiko
  515. 18:22.
  516. 18:23>> Heiko, as always, your stories on the
  517. 18:25sidelines, even beyond investing, are
  518. 18:26always worth listening to, and I am
  519. 18:28glad you are here. We will take a look
  520. 18:31at how you would position yourself
  521. 18:33right now as we head toward the end of
  522. 18:34the year and into the next. But I
  523. 18:36wanted to give you all a little
  524. 18:38heads-up at this point. I was just
  525. 18:41talking to Heiko before the show about
  526. 18:43us setting up a live call here on
  527. 18:45YouTube before Christmas, where you can
  528. 18:47ask your questions. Write in the
  529. 18:50comments if you are interested in that.
  530. 18:51So, really a format where you can join
  531. 18:54in live. We’ll pick an evening when
  532. 18:56everyone is free and turn it into
  533. 18:57another "Long Night of Stocks." We have
  534. 18:59done that here on the channel before.
  535. 19:01Let us know if you like that idea, and
  536. 19:02then we will take care of it. Then I
  537. 19:04will pin Heiko down for a whole evening
  538. 19:07, and we might bring in a few other
  539. 19:09experts so we can shed light on
  540. 19:11different voices and perspectives, and
  541. 19:14you can be there and ask your questions
  542. 19:17. That works really well in formats
  543. 19:19like that. So, drop that down here in
  544. 19:21the comments and then we’ll see if
  545. 19:22there is interest. Heiko, why don't you
  546. 19:25share this with your 190,000 followers
  547. 19:26on Instagram, and we'll get the place
  548. 19:28packed. So, congratulations once again
  549. 19:31on your Business Book of the Year, and
  550. 19:33naturally for your huge Insta community
  551. 19:36, which, we have to admit, is
  552. 19:37significantly younger than our
  553. 19:39community here on the channel. But
  554. 19:42regardless, we'll shake things up
  555. 19:43shortly before Christmas. But Heiko, to
  556. 19:45make a long story short. What do you
  557. 19:47think, how should one position oneself
  558. 19:49now at the end of the year, with the
  559. 19:50midterms coming up? We wanted to talk
  560. 19:52about that briefly. You believe Trump
  561. 19:55will get a slap in the face there, but
  562. 19:57don't you think these huge donations
  563. 19:59from people like Elon Musk and the like
  564. 20:02could contribute to public opinion
  565. 20:03unexpectedly shifting in favor of Trump
  566. 20:06?
  567. 20:07>> You can't ignore that, you're right.
  568. 20:10And it will be a test. Can elections in
  569. 20:12a democracy be bought? And if Trump
  570. 20:16were to win the midterm elections next
  571. 20:18Tuesday and keep his majorities in both
  572. 20:21houses, then it's proof that democracy
  573. 20:23is dead. That means any billionaire can
  574. 20:29buy the elections. That would make the
  575. 20:32individual's vote worthless. The
  576. 20:35question is whether people can still be
  577. 20:37influenced to change their decision
  578. 20:38through a massive flood of advertising.
  579. 20:41The advantage is that many mail-in
  580. 20:43ballots have already been cast, so it
  581. 20:45will be a test. That's why I'm holding
  582. 20:48back a bit on saying Trump will
  583. 20:50definitely lose. I say I'm leaving it
  584. 20:53open. Committing myself to that makes
  585. 20:55no sense, because it's only a few days
  586. 20:57away, then we can decide after
  587. 20:58Wednesday, but regardless of how the
  588. 21:00election turns out, the stock market
  589. 21:02will be higher at the end of the year
  590. 21:03than it is today. We're firm on that
  591. 21:05for the DAX, to be precise. 27,500.
  592. 21:08That was the target, and I mentioned
  593. 21:10that back in January of this year. I'm
  594. 21:12sticking to that. I mentioned over
  595. 21:147,700 for the Stoxx. I've already
  596. 21:16reached that. So I could finish the
  597. 21:17year regarding the American market and
  598. 21:19say, goal achieved. Thank you. I'm
  599. 21:20going on vacation now. We'll see each
  600. 21:22other again in January. I'm not doing
  601. 21:23that. This means the stock market is
  602. 21:25set to rise further. Why? Because AI
  603. 21:27and other elements mean the German
  604. 21:28industry is constantly reinventing
  605. 21:30itself. Just look at BASF. BASF was on
  606. 21:33the brink, to put it extremely, when
  607. 21:35the gas supply was turned off by Russia
  608. 21:38and so on. Now they are rebuilding, and
  609. 21:41BASF shows that German management is
  610. 21:44innovative enough to handle even the
  611. 21:47greatest challenges. That is the
  612. 21:50crucial thing you are seeing. So much
  613. 21:51is happening there. The world will see
  614. 21:53a change in the next four years before
  615. 21:55this year is out, won't it? I hope I
  616. 21:57can fully experience it too, because
  617. 21:59standing here now with the deaths of
  618. 22:00friends, it makes you thoughtful; the
  619. 22:02ranks are getting incredibly thin. But
  620. 22:05it is fascinating what is happening
  621. 22:07before us. The depressing part is that
  622. 22:10our democracy is being put to the test,
  623. 22:12and what happened in France is a unique
  624. 22:15catastrophe. I agree with the pundit.
  625. 22:18He just said in a broadcast, "Child,
  626. 22:20it's impossible what we're experiencing
  627. 22:22," that young people wanting better
  628. 22:23school conditions destroy buildings,
  629. 22:25like one of the most beautiful town
  630. 22:27halls in Limoges, France, being burned
  631. 22:29down. The fire brigades aren't allowed
  632. 22:31through; they are being prevented from
  633. 22:33intervening, right? And they just let a
  634. 22:36historical work crumble into itself.
  635. 22:38That is an absolute outrage we have
  636. 22:41here. That has nothing to do with
  637. 22:43democracy anymore. It has nothing to do
  638. 22:44with protesting. You have to say,
  639. 22:46France is suffering a lot, but we must
  640. 22:49and can overcome this too; it's just a
  641. 22:51shame that we have to fall so deep
  642. 22:53first, and regarding the USA, I have to
  643. 22:55say something else. A president who has
  644. 22:58stolen 2 billion in the open scene. He
  645. 23:01stole them quite legally through
  646. 23:04insider trading. We just let that pass
  647. 23:07us by. What kind of world are we
  648. 23:08actually living in? Are there no longer
  649. 23:09any concepts of morality or normal
  650. 23:11standards? And that is what bothers me
  651. 23:13when Elon Musk supports Trump; of
  652. 23:15course he does. He wants the
  653. 23:17regulations for his companies, for
  654. 23:20SpaceX and for Tesla, to be approved.
  655. 23:23Furthermore, through his cleaning work
  656. 23:25with the administration in the US, he
  657. 23:28was able to see all the files and
  658. 23:29everything that is there. It is a
  659. 23:33scandal what we are putting up with,
  660. 23:35and yet we will survive it. If a few
  661. 23:38billionaires want to buy their own
  662. 23:40islands, let them do it. But democracy,
  663. 23:43as far as I am concerned—and many
  664. 23:45other people too—please wake up.
  665. 23:47Democracy must be defended. We fought
  666. 23:49for it for a long time. Do we suddenly
  667. 23:51want to go back to the Stone Age, leave
  668. 23:53it to a few rich people to dictate what
  669. 23:55we can do? Do we want to leave it to a
  670. 23:57Russian to say what is right? No, it is
  671. 24:00high time we view the democratic
  672. 24:02process not as sacred, but as the most
  673. 24:05desirable thing, and as Ludwig Erhard
  674. 24:07said, a free, yet liberal social market
  675. 24:10economy. We have to face that, we have
  676. 24:13problems in Germany too, but I only see
  677. 24:15opportunities there and the stock
  678. 24:16market higher at the end of the year,
  679. 24:17and what the next year brings, we will
  680. 24:19discuss at the appropriate time.
  681. 24:21>> Dear Heiko, we'll do that in our live
  682. 24:23format. As I said, write it in the
  683. 24:24comments. We covered a few different
  684. 24:26topics today, but I'm always happy when
  685. 24:28you're here with me, because I know
  686. 24:30that you speak plainly and find clear
  687. 24:32words, and it's important that we don't
  688. 24:35just have generic fluff on this channel
  689. 24:37. So, thank you for the words, thank
  690. 24:39you all for your time, and leave a
  691. 24:40subscription if you are here on the
  692. 24:42channel for the first time. Let me know
  693. 24:44if you are interested in a long night
  694. 24:46of stocks before Christmas, where we
  695. 24:49can really answer your questions. And
  696. 24:51for today, thank you very much.
  697. 24:53Exciting times ahead, exciting days lie
  698. 24:55ahead of us. So stay tuned. Live
  699. 24:57broadcast with Heiko. I will link
  700. 24:59everything so you can tune in on that
  701. 25:02day and that evening. So until then,
  702. 25:05have a great time. It was nice with you
  703. 25:07, Carola. You look good and keep it up.

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