Heiko Thieme: Jetzt kommen die Midterms: Korrektur oder Mega-Chance für Anleger? — Transcript
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- 0:01So, whenever things get exciting, we
- 0:03have a very special guest. Heiko Time
- 0:04is with us once again. Dear Heiko, it's
- 0:06great that you have the time. As we
- 0:08know, the Midterms are in America next
- 0:11week. Have you already bought popcorn
- 0:13to sit in front of the TV?
- 0:15>> I'm not a popcorn enthusiast. There are
- 0:18other things I like to have, but there
- 0:20are various different things. Maybe I'd
- 0:22have a Cava to drink if the result
- 0:24turns out the way I hope, but Cava is
- 0:26the champagne or sparkling wine of
- 0:28Spain, very good. Now don't
- 0:29underestimate it, you don't have to
- 0:31spend $ 60 for the bottle. You can do
- 0:34it for 15 euros too. You can even do it
- 0:36for 5 euros. So I’m quite rational
- 0:38there, and the evening will of course
- 0:40be exciting. I also have my colleague
- 0:43here, Andreas Grossarbeit, we will
- 0:45follow it together and bring a special
- 0:47broadcast the next day to put things
- 0:50into perspective. It is the most
- 0:52important day of the year. I will link
- 0:55everything here for you if you want to
- 0:57join Heiko for the Midterms, and yes,
- 0:59Heiko is no longer in America, even
- 1:01though he was a huge fan of America for
- 1:03many decades. And we’ll get into that
- 1:06a bit later. But before we talk a bit
- 1:09about the Midterms and Donald Trump's
- 1:12prospects—he isn't on the ballot, but
- 1:14it's practically a vote on him—it
- 1:16will be decided next Tuesday and the
- 1:19result is quite open, it must be said.
- 1:22>> We'll talk about that in a moment,
- 1:24because there is quite a bit to
- 1:25consider. For example, his buddy Elon
- 1:27Musk, who has put a lot of money into
- 1:28it. But wait, wait, wait. First, we
- 1:31want to assess the market, as we are
- 1:32recording this on Wednesday the 28th,
- 1:34in the afternoon. And today, there are
- 1:37very important things that are also
- 1:39relevant for the stock market, and we
- 1:42have the American central bank meeting.
- 1:45And now the big question is: the new
- 1:47central bank chief is also a buddy of
- 1:49Trump's, and surely he will do him a
- 1:51favor today and leave interest rates
- 1:53untouched. You're right, although a
- 1:56rate hike would be rationally correct,
- 1:58just before such an election, to remain
- 2:01neutral, they won't do anything and
- 2:03will say we are remaining neutral. That
- 2:05is to be expected. An interest rate
- 2:08hike will come again before the year is
- 2:09out, that would be the second one. He's
- 2:12not doing a bad job, but what I notice,
- 2:14and I'm not entirely sure, is that he
- 2:16doesn't want to make any statements. I
- 2:18would set the trend. I wouldn't say
- 2:20Powell was more agreeable because we
- 2:22tell you what occupies us; we share our
- 2:24opinions with you. If I'm at the
- 2:25central bank and am asked where things
- 2:27are heading, and they just say they
- 2:29have no idea, we don't even want to say
- 2:30. That's just not right; it would be
- 2:32like if you asked me now, where is the
- 2:33stock market headed? I'd say, I have no
- 2:35idea. Okay, next question. What should
- 2:37we do? No idea. Yeah, well that was
- 2:38very nice. Heiko, let's talk again next
- 2:40time so that doesn't happen. What will
- 2:42happen next week in the elections? No
- 2:43idea. He says, well, we all have no
- 2:45idea, but you can't fill a program with
- 2:47that. You can't inspire people, nor
- 2:49encourage them to think. So, no
- 2:52decision today, and tomorrow the same
- 2:54from Ms. Lagarde for other reasons. She
- 2:56has already raised the rates. They can
- 2:58afford to take a break. Artificial
- 2:59intelligence remains the main topic.
- 3:01Then the planned IPO, right, which is
- 3:04imminent for Trump Media. We are
- 3:07dealing with a gigantonomy here. The
- 3:09market, you have to know that. Today,
- 3:12anyone who has a billion is actually
- 3:14more of a small beggar on the scene
- 3:16these days. So if you don't show up
- 3:19with 100 billion, you can't make an
- 3:20impression. And meanwhile, we also have
- 3:23a trillionaire, someone who has a
- 3:24trillion so far, it's Elon Musk. He
- 3:26will, in the next 12 months I would say
- 3:29, there is a high probability that he
- 3:31will have double that amount, so 2
- 3:33trillion, and will remain the richest
- 3:36man in the world by far, and thus far
- 3:38exceed the greatest wealth in history
- 3:40going back to Babylonian times. That is
- 3:43the fact we have. And considering that
- 3:46he as a person, now in his mid-50s, 30
- 3:49or 40 years ago, he didn't even have 10
- 3:52million, I would say. So, they came out
- 3:55of nothing, which again shows that
- 3:57wealth doesn't have to be earned by
- 3:59families, it can be created out of
- 4:01nothing. The time where people, who 6
- 4:05weeks ago had nothing, suddenly—that
- 4:07was the case with Trump Media—become
- 4:09multi-billionaires, that's a totally
- 4:10new era, but that's not negative, it's
- 4:12just a fact you should simply take into
- 4:14account.
- 4:16>> But have you taken a look at Anthropic,
- 4:17while we're on the subject? They've
- 4:19just released their prospectus and
- 4:21actually intend to go public later this
- 4:23year. I believe this will be a litmus
- 4:26test for the entire AI industry and
- 4:28this whole sector. We are already
- 4:31seeing that not everything is going
- 4:32perfectly anymore. For instance, we
- 4:34have already seen in various markets
- 4:37that AI stocks have taken a hit. So,
- 4:39there is a lot of skepticism in the
- 4:42market. Could Anthropic be the drop
- 4:45that makes the bucket overflow, or how
- 4:47do you say it?
- 4:50>> Yes, or the balloon that’s losing
- 4:51some air; it’s clear, it’s like
- 4:53climbing the Eiger North Face or
- 4:54whatever metaphor I want to use.
- 4:57Eventually you reach the peak, and no
- 4:58matter how beautiful it is up there,
- 5:00you know the next step leads down, no
- 5:02matter what you want. And that is what
- 5:05we are experiencing right now—an
- 5:06breathtaking development with AI,
- 5:08artificial intelligence, so far, and I
- 5:10don't know which of the viewers have
- 5:12been engaging with it. Those listening
- 5:15to this show have never used AI, never
- 5:19used ChatGPT, or Gemini, or Claude.
- 5:23Well, they are living in the past. They
- 5:26are living in the Middle Ages, to put
- 5:27it bluntly. Four months ago, I had no
- 5:29idea about ChatGPT. I had heard of it,
- 5:31but never used it. Now there isn't a
- 5:34day where I don't engage with this
- 5:36artificial intelligence at least a
- 5:37dozen times to gather information
- 5:39because it’s faster than anything
- 5:41we’ve had before. It makes work
- 5:44easier, it also shows you a certain
- 5:46knowledge gap you might have with
- 5:48historical data you once thought were
- 5:50facts, only for it to be revised when
- 5:53you realize you were using the wrong
- 5:55facts. So it really is a living
- 5:58encyclopedia that is constantly up to
- 5:59date and presents new developments. For
- 6:02me, it’s a fascination that such a
- 6:04breakthrough can happen. Yes, of course
- 6:07. I compare it to Gutenberg and his
- 6:09printing press. That revolutionized the
- 6:11world; every monk complained, of course
- 6:13, that they couldn't copy manuscripts
- 6:15anymore, or rather that the future of
- 6:17copying was being limited. "A printing
- 6:19press will do that soon, for God's sake
- 6:21, what is happening there?" No, this is
- 6:23something we have to accept if we want
- 6:25to keep up with the trend. But there is
- 6:29also fraud, and that can affect all of
- 6:31us as well. It's just like with ATMs
- 6:34over there, too. ATMs are fantastic.
- 6:36You have to be careful, as there can be
- 6:38fraud there as well. You have to
- 6:39implement the corresponding measures or
- 6:42safeguards. We have to look at the
- 6:44entire structure; whoever rejects it
- 6:46and wants to keep living in the woods
- 6:49can do so, but that’s not where the
- 6:51future lies.
- 6:53>> But the question now, of course, is
- 6:54what this means for our money? And I
- 6:57believe that with the company data we
- 6:59are now receiving from the major
- 7:01hyperscalers, the market really wants
- 7:03to see that these huge investments
- 7:05being made—setting aside the great
- 7:07vision, which is there—that these
- 7:10huge investments are actually bearing
- 7:12fruit. So that really is the big topic
- 7:15for all these stocks at the moment. So
- 7:17AI is being put to the test.
- 7:19>> That is correct. And if you look at
- 7:22what we’ve seen with the tech stocks:
- 7:24Micron Technology has risen
- 7:25fantastically, hasn't it? So many
- 7:28stocks that one could see in the market
- 7:30, where you can say, the guy with his
- 7:32company—he was the richest man a year
- 7:34ago—is a year younger than I am. The
- 7:36man is an adopted child from Chicago.
- 7:39You really have to listen to his story.
- 7:40I think his adoptive father told him he
- 7:42would never amount to anything in life.
- 7:45Well, he was certainly wrong about that
- 7:46. The man was the richest person in the
- 7:48world a year ago. Then, out of those
- 7:50600 billion, he still has 250 billion
- 7:52now. So should I feel sorry for him? No
- 7:53, that would be wrong. He knows what he
- 7:55wants. He is fully involved in the
- 7:57business and needs money in the
- 7:59double-digit billions. He will not only
- 8:01survive but will also be successful.
- 8:03But in the entire sector, we have a,
- 8:05let’s say, huge demand for these data
- 8:07centers, and I want to make a very
- 8:09simple forecast. You don’t need much
- 8:11imagination for that. Not all of these
- 8:13data centers will be successful. It’s
- 8:16like suddenly saying we’ve discovered
- 8:18the supermarket. The supermarket is
- 8:19great, and everyone builds the same
- 8:21store in a town of maybe 50,000 people.
- 8:23Then two of them would go bankrupt. If
- 8:24you then have 25 supermarkets, you can
- 8:26say one of them won't survive the next
- 8:2710 years because there are simply too
- 8:29many. That’s exactly it; you separate
- 8:32the wheat from the chaff, and that’s
- 8:34what we’re facing in the coming years
- 8:36, including with chips. With chips, we
- 8:38said: That’s Trump-style thinking,
- 8:40yes, we won’t give the chips to the
- 8:41Chinese, we don't want to be the
- 8:43dominant people. And then the NVIDIA
- 8:45CEO, Huang, who comes from Taiwan, says
- 8:47: Guys, I can only recommend, let our
- 8:49chips go to China. Why? Because if the
- 8:53Chinese get them from us, they won't
- 8:54put as many people to work developing
- 8:56their own chips. If they are blocked,
- 8:58they say we have four times as many
- 9:00engineers as the Americans have. And
- 9:02even if half of the engineers in China
- 9:04weren't worth much—I’m speaking
- 9:06hypothetically now—they would still
- 9:08have 100%more engineers than the
- 9:09Americans. So, by definition, they will
- 9:12produce a successful chip by the end of
- 9:14the decade faster than they currently
- 9:17have. And you can perhaps already see
- 9:19that the chips in China are comparable
- 9:21and in some things even superior to
- 9:23ours. The market must be open. Trump
- 9:26never really grasped that with his
- 9:28tariffs, his punitive duties, and so on
- 9:30. An open market has moved the world
- 9:32forward. The goal is to build bridges
- 9:35and not create walls. We saw that in
- 9:37Germany. A wall can last a few decades,
- 9:39but in the end, it falls; the bridges
- 9:41are the decisive factor. We also saw
- 9:42that with the Kerch Bridge, what was
- 9:44destroyed there. So, you can just say:
- 9:47Folks, please just think rationally
- 9:48about what we have here.
- 9:51>> And interestingly, well, I’m going to
- 9:53China in December; we really hear very
- 9:55little from the Chinese AI industry. In
- 9:58fact, these open-weight models are
- 10:00being used much more extensively and by
- 10:01developers in the Western world than we
- 10:03would like to admit. And that is very
- 10:06exciting. I’m looking forward to it.
- 10:07I am really looking forward to the trip
- 10:09and seeing companies there. I will, of
- 10:11course, report on potential
- 10:12applications here on the channel. Write
- 10:14in the comments if you want us to dive
- 10:16deeper into the topic of AI and do
- 10:18individual shows on it, because I want
- 10:20to talk to Heiko about other topics now
- 10:22, of course. And there, for example, we
- 10:24have something I’m currently
- 10:26researching for a column that I will
- 10:28publish on Sunday in Bild am Sonntag:
- 10:30the auto industry. We got the figures
- 10:32from Mercedes, and they were actually
- 10:34quite good. The outlook isn't actually
- 10:36that bad, I believe, but nonetheless,
- 10:38you have to say that the sentiment
- 10:39toward German automakers in particular
- 10:41is at rock bottom. What is your
- 10:43explanation for that? I know you've
- 10:45been on my show repeatedly regarding
- 10:47Volkswagen, and you keep sticking with
- 10:49it, but do people actually still want
- 10:50cars? Especially Germans? I would say
- 10:54yes, because we have the best engineers
- 10:57. You can count on us; we don't deceive
- 11:00people with diesel scandals and so on.
- 11:02But looking at where we are now, on
- 11:04that basis, with the stock at € 70,
- 11:07what could possibly go wrong? That VW
- 11:10will go down the drain and cease to
- 11:12exist, I consider to be very, very
- 11:14unlikely. The probability for that is
- 11:17under 5%, so I look at the 95%, and the
- 11:19question is what—I'm not saying this,
- 11:21I'm not the analyst, not the strategist
- 11:23—I look at what the analysts say.
- 11:26Analysts assume that the price could
- 11:27rise above the € 100 mark. I wouldn't
- 11:29consider that unusual. The stock is
- 11:31coming from 250, or 252 to be exact. So
- 11:34I see that as a possibility. I would
- 11:36keep VW on my list. Now here is the "
- 11:39but": I never invest in just one asset.
- 11:41No matter what it is, even if it were
- 11:44to go up 10,000%, I only invest a
- 11:46maximum of 3%in one asset. That is the
- 11:48diversification I preach, with a total
- 11:51of 30 positions in the portfolio—and
- 11:53by the way, if I may plug my book,
- 11:55which was created as a bestseller
- 11:57finance book this year, anyone can read
- 11:59it or get the audiobook to know what my
- 12:02idea is. I’m not saying I have the
- 12:04right idea; I just have an idea. I
- 12:05express this idea very clearly. I try
- 12:07to have a clear idea and suggestions
- 12:09for solutions for almost all problems,
- 12:12and as long as I can think and speak
- 12:14reasonably and present full sentences,
- 12:16I will continue to do so.
- 12:19>> Yes, but if we look at the car market a
- 12:21bit more closely, even the Chinese
- 12:22aren't doing that well at the moment. I
- 12:25mean, BYD was always described as the
- 12:27big new era of Chinese cars, but it
- 12:29seems there are problems with
- 12:31overcapacity there as well.
- 12:33>> That is correct. The car—if I may say
- 12:36so right away—the BYD is a top-tier
- 12:37car. So if I compare it with Mercedes,
- 12:40I would say the BYD is more attractive;
- 12:42that is my personal critique, that is a
- 12:44personal critique. I drive a Renault
- 12:46because of my family; my father-in-law
- 12:49was one of the three highest-ranking
- 12:51people, an executive at Renault. But
- 12:54it's a good car, the Renault, but I
- 12:56tell myself: If I take a Mercedes now
- 12:58in terms of luxury and looks, and a BYD
- 13:00, I would lean more toward BYD. When I
- 13:02sit inside, strictly speaking, I also
- 13:04look at—that's still my business—
- 13:06the price-performance ratio, which is
- 13:09crucial in the stock market; the
- 13:10price-earnings ratio and the value are
- 13:13optimal, and that’s a very valid
- 13:15point. The share price is anything but
- 13:17positive, and yet I recommend it
- 13:18precisely because of that—because
- 13:20it’s a good idea. Of course, I’m
- 13:22not allowed to call it a recommendation
- 13:24, which is nonsense, but that’s what
- 13:25the legislators say, so let’s be
- 13:27careful, but I’ll say: As an idea,
- 13:29BYD is interesting to me. I don’t
- 13:31think it just looks like that, but they
- 13:32are also a battery manufacturer, which
- 13:34gives them enormous advantages. That
- 13:36would be the alternative for me, so
- 13:38what do I do? I invest up to 3%in BYD
- 13:41and also 3%in VW. I could, of course,
- 13:45add Mercedes to that as well. I was
- 13:50>> could then also add Audi. Let’s leave
- 13:53everything else out, otherwise I’d be
- 13:55diversifying too much; overall, the
- 13:57global automotive sector can make up
- 13:59between 7 and a maximum of 10%of a
- 14:01portfolio.
- 14:03>> But the point is—and we’ll conclude
- 14:05the topic of cars with this—if you
- 14:06look at General Motors, the stock has
- 14:08done well. I mean, they have huge share
- 14:11buyback programs, which obviously
- 14:13improves the optics a bit, but what are
- 14:14they doing differently? Or are they
- 14:17simply in the promised land of
- 14:18combustion engines, where they can
- 14:20still sell all those big monster cars?
- 14:22That might also be coming to an end
- 14:24soon if the oil price continues to rise
- 14:25. So, I have been saying for some time
- 14:28that the combustion engine is here to
- 14:30stay. But looking at it today, I’ve
- 14:32changed my mind a bit. The combustion
- 14:34engine stays as long as refueling or
- 14:36charging—especially with EVs—is
- 14:38difficult, or because you have to look
- 14:40for a place to charge after just 100 or
- 14:43200 km, which is absurd. That is no
- 14:45longer the case today. When I drive a
- 14:47car—it’s a hybrid, by the way,
- 14:49because it’s both; Toyota actually
- 14:51made this happen, which makes Toyota a
- 14:53good company and shows their foresight
- 14:56—if I can drive: the maximum your
- 14:58listeners drive in their lives is about
- 15:001,000 km a day. I think there will be
- 15:02few who have driven more than that.
- 15:04I've done it, haven't I, driven a bit
- 15:05more, but it happens very rarely.
- 15:08Normally people want to drive at least
- 15:10500 km and then you have to think about
- 15:12where to charge, where to eat, and so
- 15:14on. Absolute utter nonsense. That won't
- 15:16even be an issue in the next 10 years.
- 15:19Batteries will be much better by then,
- 15:21and then we can switch completely to
- 15:23battery power. Yes, but hybrids have an
- 15:26advantage, of course, because
- 15:28electricity prices can sometimes be
- 15:29higher, can't they? Compared to
- 15:32gasoline, having a mix is something I
- 15:34don't mind. I think hybrid is a good
- 15:37compromise, knowing that ultimately,
- 15:40say in 30 or 40 years, gas cars will be
- 15:43something you just look at in a
- 15:45showroom or a museum. You know, like
- 15:49when you see an old car today, a '32 or
- 15:51'35 Bentley, but you don't drive it
- 15:53every day. And then we'll truly have
- 15:55EVs, but charging won't matter anymore,
- 15:58taking 10 minutes like at a gas station
- 16:00, and then it's fully charged and ready
- 16:02to drive. But different things will
- 16:05combine, and besides, driving will
- 16:07naturally be different. Why? Because
- 16:10with autonomous driving, many people
- 16:12won't own cars anymore. We know many
- 16:14young people, my children for instance,
- 16:16they don't have cars anymore. They say,
- 16:18"I don't need one." I can call an Uber,
- 16:20you know, and it doesn't cost that much
- 16:22. So, that will be a big change. This
- 16:24means the garage space that is the norm
- 16:27for a house today will be just that. In
- 16:3020 or 30 years, it will be the
- 16:31exception. Like a house without a
- 16:32garage, we don't even have a garage
- 16:33ourselves. You order the car, the car
- 16:36comes without a driver, available at
- 16:38any time. So, living conditions are
- 16:40changing dramatically. It's like asking
- 16:43what life was like before we had
- 16:44washing machines, right? What did we
- 16:46have before airplanes, the Wright
- 16:48brothers, you know, making the first
- 16:50flights? The world is constantly
- 16:52changing and actually improving. And
- 16:55the global warming question remains,
- 16:57but we will get a handle on it. Why?
- 16:59Because the world population is
- 17:00starting to shrink, although most
- 17:01people haven't even realized it yet.
- 17:03You have to look at the latest studies
- 17:04for that. China will go from its
- 17:06current 1.4 billion people to, by their
- 17:08own projections, I believe, between 700
- 17:10and 800 million by the end of the
- 17:12century. That means, if we take the
- 17:15lower figure—let's say 800 million—
- 17:18then you have 600 million fewer people
- 17:20than today. Basically, all of Europe
- 17:23vanishes between now and the end of the
- 17:26century, plus another 150 million on
- 17:28top of that; the whole development, and
- 17:30China isn't the only one with this
- 17:32trend. We in Europe have a negative
- 17:34growth rate. That’s why when we say "
- 17:37foreigners out," it's a bad proposal.
- 17:39Just take a look at Germany without
- 17:41foreigners. You wouldn't have hospitals
- 17:43left, you wouldn't have schools left
- 17:45that need teaching staff. You wouldn't
- 17:47have service staff, you wouldn't have
- 17:48specialists left for most of the jobs
- 17:50we have. We are a country—if you look
- 17:52at history, the "German" is not a type
- 17:54that existed in this form 30,000 years
- 17:56ago; it changes. No, we have constantly
- 17:59evolved, constantly changed, and then
- 18:01one was summarized at the end, but
- 18:03saying "we want to stay German"...Yes,
- 18:05that is nonsense, with all due respect.
- 18:08The pleasant part is the flexibility. I
- 18:12say that, of course, as someone who has
- 18:13been with a woman for 42 years, and my
- 18:15wife is French. So, in that respect, I
- 18:17can also prove it practically. It’s
- 18:19worth looking beyond the horizon. Heiko
- 18:22.
- 18:23>> Heiko, as always, your stories on the
- 18:25sidelines, even beyond investing, are
- 18:26always worth listening to, and I am
- 18:28glad you are here. We will take a look
- 18:31at how you would position yourself
- 18:33right now as we head toward the end of
- 18:34the year and into the next. But I
- 18:36wanted to give you all a little
- 18:38heads-up at this point. I was just
- 18:41talking to Heiko before the show about
- 18:43us setting up a live call here on
- 18:45YouTube before Christmas, where you can
- 18:47ask your questions. Write in the
- 18:50comments if you are interested in that.
- 18:51So, really a format where you can join
- 18:54in live. We’ll pick an evening when
- 18:56everyone is free and turn it into
- 18:57another "Long Night of Stocks." We have
- 18:59done that here on the channel before.
- 19:01Let us know if you like that idea, and
- 19:02then we will take care of it. Then I
- 19:04will pin Heiko down for a whole evening
- 19:07, and we might bring in a few other
- 19:09experts so we can shed light on
- 19:11different voices and perspectives, and
- 19:14you can be there and ask your questions
- 19:17. That works really well in formats
- 19:19like that. So, drop that down here in
- 19:21the comments and then we’ll see if
- 19:22there is interest. Heiko, why don't you
- 19:25share this with your 190,000 followers
- 19:26on Instagram, and we'll get the place
- 19:28packed. So, congratulations once again
- 19:31on your Business Book of the Year, and
- 19:33naturally for your huge Insta community
- 19:36, which, we have to admit, is
- 19:37significantly younger than our
- 19:39community here on the channel. But
- 19:42regardless, we'll shake things up
- 19:43shortly before Christmas. But Heiko, to
- 19:45make a long story short. What do you
- 19:47think, how should one position oneself
- 19:49now at the end of the year, with the
- 19:50midterms coming up? We wanted to talk
- 19:52about that briefly. You believe Trump
- 19:55will get a slap in the face there, but
- 19:57don't you think these huge donations
- 19:59from people like Elon Musk and the like
- 20:02could contribute to public opinion
- 20:03unexpectedly shifting in favor of Trump
- 20:06?
- 20:07>> You can't ignore that, you're right.
- 20:10And it will be a test. Can elections in
- 20:12a democracy be bought? And if Trump
- 20:16were to win the midterm elections next
- 20:18Tuesday and keep his majorities in both
- 20:21houses, then it's proof that democracy
- 20:23is dead. That means any billionaire can
- 20:29buy the elections. That would make the
- 20:32individual's vote worthless. The
- 20:35question is whether people can still be
- 20:37influenced to change their decision
- 20:38through a massive flood of advertising.
- 20:41The advantage is that many mail-in
- 20:43ballots have already been cast, so it
- 20:45will be a test. That's why I'm holding
- 20:48back a bit on saying Trump will
- 20:50definitely lose. I say I'm leaving it
- 20:53open. Committing myself to that makes
- 20:55no sense, because it's only a few days
- 20:57away, then we can decide after
- 20:58Wednesday, but regardless of how the
- 21:00election turns out, the stock market
- 21:02will be higher at the end of the year
- 21:03than it is today. We're firm on that
- 21:05for the DAX, to be precise. 27,500.
- 21:08That was the target, and I mentioned
- 21:10that back in January of this year. I'm
- 21:12sticking to that. I mentioned over
- 21:147,700 for the Stoxx. I've already
- 21:16reached that. So I could finish the
- 21:17year regarding the American market and
- 21:19say, goal achieved. Thank you. I'm
- 21:20going on vacation now. We'll see each
- 21:22other again in January. I'm not doing
- 21:23that. This means the stock market is
- 21:25set to rise further. Why? Because AI
- 21:27and other elements mean the German
- 21:28industry is constantly reinventing
- 21:30itself. Just look at BASF. BASF was on
- 21:33the brink, to put it extremely, when
- 21:35the gas supply was turned off by Russia
- 21:38and so on. Now they are rebuilding, and
- 21:41BASF shows that German management is
- 21:44innovative enough to handle even the
- 21:47greatest challenges. That is the
- 21:50crucial thing you are seeing. So much
- 21:51is happening there. The world will see
- 21:53a change in the next four years before
- 21:55this year is out, won't it? I hope I
- 21:57can fully experience it too, because
- 21:59standing here now with the deaths of
- 22:00friends, it makes you thoughtful; the
- 22:02ranks are getting incredibly thin. But
- 22:05it is fascinating what is happening
- 22:07before us. The depressing part is that
- 22:10our democracy is being put to the test,
- 22:12and what happened in France is a unique
- 22:15catastrophe. I agree with the pundit.
- 22:18He just said in a broadcast, "Child,
- 22:20it's impossible what we're experiencing
- 22:22," that young people wanting better
- 22:23school conditions destroy buildings,
- 22:25like one of the most beautiful town
- 22:27halls in Limoges, France, being burned
- 22:29down. The fire brigades aren't allowed
- 22:31through; they are being prevented from
- 22:33intervening, right? And they just let a
- 22:36historical work crumble into itself.
- 22:38That is an absolute outrage we have
- 22:41here. That has nothing to do with
- 22:43democracy anymore. It has nothing to do
- 22:44with protesting. You have to say,
- 22:46France is suffering a lot, but we must
- 22:49and can overcome this too; it's just a
- 22:51shame that we have to fall so deep
- 22:53first, and regarding the USA, I have to
- 22:55say something else. A president who has
- 22:58stolen 2 billion in the open scene. He
- 23:01stole them quite legally through
- 23:04insider trading. We just let that pass
- 23:07us by. What kind of world are we
- 23:08actually living in? Are there no longer
- 23:09any concepts of morality or normal
- 23:11standards? And that is what bothers me
- 23:13when Elon Musk supports Trump; of
- 23:15course he does. He wants the
- 23:17regulations for his companies, for
- 23:20SpaceX and for Tesla, to be approved.
- 23:23Furthermore, through his cleaning work
- 23:25with the administration in the US, he
- 23:28was able to see all the files and
- 23:29everything that is there. It is a
- 23:33scandal what we are putting up with,
- 23:35and yet we will survive it. If a few
- 23:38billionaires want to buy their own
- 23:40islands, let them do it. But democracy,
- 23:43as far as I am concerned—and many
- 23:45other people too—please wake up.
- 23:47Democracy must be defended. We fought
- 23:49for it for a long time. Do we suddenly
- 23:51want to go back to the Stone Age, leave
- 23:53it to a few rich people to dictate what
- 23:55we can do? Do we want to leave it to a
- 23:57Russian to say what is right? No, it is
- 24:00high time we view the democratic
- 24:02process not as sacred, but as the most
- 24:05desirable thing, and as Ludwig Erhard
- 24:07said, a free, yet liberal social market
- 24:10economy. We have to face that, we have
- 24:13problems in Germany too, but I only see
- 24:15opportunities there and the stock
- 24:16market higher at the end of the year,
- 24:17and what the next year brings, we will
- 24:19discuss at the appropriate time.
- 24:21>> Dear Heiko, we'll do that in our live
- 24:23format. As I said, write it in the
- 24:24comments. We covered a few different
- 24:26topics today, but I'm always happy when
- 24:28you're here with me, because I know
- 24:30that you speak plainly and find clear
- 24:32words, and it's important that we don't
- 24:35just have generic fluff on this channel
- 24:37. So, thank you for the words, thank
- 24:39you all for your time, and leave a
- 24:40subscription if you are here on the
- 24:42channel for the first time. Let me know
- 24:44if you are interested in a long night
- 24:46of stocks before Christmas, where we
- 24:49can really answer your questions. And
- 24:51for today, thank you very much.
- 24:53Exciting times ahead, exciting days lie
- 24:55ahead of us. So stay tuned. Live
- 24:57broadcast with Heiko. I will link
- 24:59everything so you can tune in on that
- 25:02day and that evening. So until then,
- 25:05have a great time. It was nice with you
- 25:07, Carola. You look good and keep it up.
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