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He Says the Next Crisis Is Never Coming | Jordi Visser — Transcript

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0:00We know the fiat system is a Ponzi
0:01scheme. We know there's about a hundred
0:03and twenty trillion of physical hard
0:04currency in the world that supports nine
0:06hundred trillion in assets. That is a
0:08levered Ponzi scheme. How do we [music]
0:09stop assets from falling? If all of a
0:11sudden the nine hundred trillion tries
0:13to come and get liquid, what do the
0:15central banks [music] have to do? They
0:16have to come in and print money. And
0:17what is money? Well, that's M2. We're
0:18about to unleash the nine hundred
0:19trillion in liquid form. That's what
0:21tokenization is. The Ponzi scheme then
0:22ends. [music] So, whenever I hear people
0:23in crypto talk about the liquidity
0:25cycle, that is a myth. That is when
0:26you're in the speculative phase.
0:28Tokenization is the key thing. There is
0:30nothing more important to Bitcoin and to
0:32[music] the programmables.
0:38>> Yeah, no. I know there's a I I'm not
0:41sure if you saw the Citrini post this
0:42morning, but it was somebody using Meows
0:44and
0:45they were on a Delta flight that got
0:47canceled on the tarmac and he
0:48immediately went "Rebook this flight and
0:50on top of that go find
0:53how I can get reimbursed for this flight
0:54that just got canceled." Within minutes
0:56he had a $250 credit. And the Citrini
0:59post was like "Number one, you're insane
1:00to think that this is a bubble and this
1:03is going nowhere. Maybe there are bubbly
1:04parts, but there is true utility here.
1:07Uh to say there's no use case
1:09is completely asinine. And then number
1:11two,
1:12like all those pennies that consumers
1:15have left on the ground with that like
1:16$250 credit, they're about to get picked
1:18up by the agents and airlines being a
1:20perfect example. What happens when
1:22people start efficiently using their
1:24miles and taking advantage of the
1:26refunds that they can get?
1:27>> I This is the beginning of the
1:29deflationary pressure on everything that
1:31we've talked about.
1:33You know, that we've as people realize
1:36that AI is deflationary, to get
1:37deflationary for the service side, you
1:39need AI agents. Cuz the agents make
1:42decisions based on efficiency. And the
1:45use of it is just I mean, that
1:47description of what Citrini did, you
1:49have to think about all the frustrating
1:51times you've had waiting to then rebook
1:53something. You get in a line when you
1:55get off the plane and how long the line
1:57is and everyone's trying to get on one
1:59and then you're trying to get a refund
2:00and you're trying to rebook things. All
2:02of this stuff will be handled, the
2:03frustrating part will be handled by
2:04agents and that's already happening and
2:06it's happening now. So whether it's Meta
2:09Muse or whether it's Instinct AI,
2:11there's a reason why these things are
2:13having an impact now on the market.
2:15>> Yeah, well
2:16like I was telling you, I took Muse for
2:17a spin this morning just to check it
2:18out. Try to book Amtrak, Amtrak's a bot,
2:21no. But point being
2:25it feels like the first like like I said
2:26it to my wife after playing with it for
2:2810 minutes. It's like, okay, this is I
2:30don't have to set up a Hermes agent for
2:31you. Like this is this is the the agent
2:33that you can use to coordinate our
2:35calendars, the boys sports schedule, all
2:38that. Like download it and this is
2:39[snorts] play with it today.
2:42>> That's the reason why this has now
2:44entered a realm for me of time.
2:46Um
2:50any speaking engagement I'm doing now
2:53it all gets back to time.
2:55Um
2:58you have to think about Open Claw
3:00which is a February thing in terms of
3:02like adoption.
3:04Then you get into Hermes. Then you get
3:06into Grokbot. Then you get into, well,
3:09Astrian Claude can already do this and
3:11we're going to make it easier and we're
3:12going to embed all this into one.
3:14So if you use Grokbot, it's a completely
3:17different situation using multiple
3:20agents to kind of run around and do
3:21tasks for you. So it's more like an
3:23autonomous workforce.
3:25With Muse and with
3:29with Instinct AI and a lot of the other
3:31private ones, now you're getting into
3:32the what we expected from Siri and what
3:35we expected from Alexa.
3:37But again, it's the fact that we're
3:38talking about something that is now 7
3:41months. So what has happened is the
3:43accept the compression of time
3:46is happening through the model releases
3:48and through the advancements. The
3:49Navier-Stokes problem, the agent swarm
3:52fears over, you know, hackings. These
3:55are all indications that were, you know,
3:57as I say repeatedly now, page 71 of
3:59situational awareness with Leopold shows
4:02where everything starts to speed up so
4:04fast that humans can't comprehend the
4:05change and they can't keep up with it.
4:07Well, if we can't keep up with it and
4:09we're starting to get into the
4:11transaction phase,
4:13the Swift system and everything that was
4:14built for humans will not work with the
4:17agents and they're going to start to
4:19demand
4:20>> faster rails.
4:21>> Yeah.
4:22>> No, it was this morning. Uh
4:24again, the the the problem with Amtrak
4:27you you were describing as a monopoly
4:28and will move, but the airlines have
4:30moved, but imagine when
4:32I can load it up with a Bitcoin wallet.
4:34Like
4:35you're going into your bucks you have
4:36Bitcoiners, you have the programmable
4:37money, then you have the incumbents. I'm
4:38a Bitcoiner.
4:40Uh and the beauty about the programmable
4:42part is like if I want to use Bitcoin as
4:44my currency, the native digital
4:45currency, and I don't want to touch
4:46anything else, I can just give the agent
4:48a Bitcoin wallet. It's like, all right,
4:49go figure out how to convert to
4:51the preferred currency of the service
4:53provider or the other agent you're
4:54buying something from. And
4:56I can see that's where things are going.
4:58And like I was saying, we're at
5:00the first stage where the incumbents had
5:02to realize this and begin
5:03re-architecting the
5:05infrastructure on the digital side they
5:07have to enable this because once they
5:08do,
5:09uh
5:11they're going to get a ton ton more
5:13business, I think.
5:14>> Yeah. And [snorts]
5:16again, I I think for people who don't
5:18see this and trust me, someone who when
5:20I speak about these things, I'll
5:22occasionally go see the
5:24uh
5:25the the comments in the post and people
5:27don't connect the agentic side to, let's
5:30say, the crypto guardrails and then kind
5:32of the impact it'll have on business.
5:34And it's surprising to me, but again,
5:37because I live in it 24 hours a day,
5:39meaning I'm monitoring how things are
5:41moving and I'm using the tools and yeah,
5:43oh, Muse is a thing. Let me go sign up
5:44for it. Okay, Instinct AI. I talk about
5:46it one week. The amount of people
5:47reached out. And again, when Meta Muse
5:49is
5:50the number one downloaded app,
5:53okay, and the numbers are big, you start
5:55realizing,
5:57oh my god,
5:58the people who aren't paying attention
6:00to this,
6:01there's a million people that have
6:03already downloaded it. So, it's like
6:05this is going to grow incredibly
6:06rapidly, especially when you realize how
6:08much time it can save you. The money
6:10part will come second. And that's the
6:12thing I keep trying to make sure people
6:14understand. The money thing will come
6:16second, but this is where you have to
6:19start realizing, okay, how is crypto
6:22directly connected
6:25to agents? And that's where you have to
6:26go back. And that's why the stuff I'm
6:28talking about now is it was always made
6:31for digital agents, cuz they're the only
6:33ones that can utilize the speed. And
6:35they're the only ones who truly care
6:36about, why are we using Visa and
6:38MasterCard? Why are we doing any of this
6:40stuff? Why aren't we just going straight
6:41here, here, here? Let me negotiate. Let
6:43me go through it. They have the time to
6:44do it. And it's going to be agent to
6:47agent. The next thing people have to
6:48think about is how important
6:49cryptography is in this. How important
6:51your identity is in this. The ecosystem
6:53starts to grow rapidly once the agents
6:55start transacting, because then all of
6:57the things that have ever been written
6:58about and talked about become more
7:00important, because the ecosystem starts
7:02to grow in terms of volume and velocity,
7:05and the size of the ecosystem is going
7:07to grow rapidly over the next 12 months.
7:09>> Yeah.
7:10Digging into agents specifically
7:12[clears throat] and how unprepared
7:15people are. I don't think if
7:17most like 99.5% of people on the planet
7:20don't understand that
7:22they hear AI, they think ChatGPT.
7:24All right, okay.
7:26>> [clears throat]
7:26>> What's the usage looking like? When they
7:27think of usage, it's like, okay,
7:29downloading Muse, talking with Muse, uh
7:32using tokens to do that. They don't
7:33realize that the agent-to-agent token
7:35usage has gone exponential and far
7:38exceeds the the human the LLM token
7:42usage. And that that fact alone I think
7:44highlights
7:46the
7:47the arbitrage that exists in the market.
7:49The fact that most people don't
7:50understand that fact is extremely
7:53powerful.
7:54It gets to something you've been talking
7:55about for for many weeks now, which is
7:58that we're climbing this wall where you
7:59have a ton of the the the layman, the
8:03public out there thinking that this is a
8:04bubble that's going to
8:06pop eventually.
8:08And they think we're going to go into
8:09like a massive economic crisis driven by
8:11this. But if you look at the underlying
8:13usage, particularly agent to agent, it
8:15seems that the fundamentals are going
8:18not only in the right direction, but far
8:19exceeding what anybody thought up to
8:21this point.
8:23>> Th- this is um
8:27for anyone listening who falls into the
8:29the camp of a warrior on AI, which is
8:32the majority of people,
8:35um
8:37getting expected value of an investment
8:39is about lining up all of the
8:41probabilities outcomes and the upside
8:44and downside of all of them.
8:46So, is there a bubble aspect? Of course,
8:48you could come up with a bunch of
8:49reasons. I I mean I
8:52I mean they're all tail risks of things,
8:55but you're not going to stop the
8:56progress on AI. You can't. We're not
8:58going to pause it. Like that was stupid.
9:00Like some everyone's waiting. Just the
9:03reaction to the pause in AI from the
9:04most sophisticated investors in the
9:06world, and I get emails that day.
9:09>> Well, this is we're going to be down big
9:11on Monday. I'm like, there'll be a
9:12knee-jerk reaction and it'll be an
9:13opportunity to buy. And here we are,
9:15whatever many days later, we're way
9:16through those levels. Meaning we're way
9:19above where it was before that news came
9:21out. So, for everyone listening who's
9:23worried,
9:25the expected value, if you break it into
9:27a binomial situation, let's assume to
9:30use what I did in my video, there's a
9:3190% chance
9:33we're headed towards abundance. And
9:35there's a 10% chance
9:37that we're going to blow up and AI will
9:39never amount to anything.
9:41Okay, in one scenario you have a zero,
9:4310% chance of a zero, and on the other
9:45side you have a 90% chance of something
9:49It's just shockingly good.
9:51The expected value is shockingly good
9:53then in terms of the combination of the
9:55two. Now, you can come up with all the
9:56different scenarios you want in between.
9:59But the reality is if you're worried
10:00about the 10%, if you're waiting for
10:02that story, the debt is too big, this
10:05and that. I can refute all of it. But
10:07the only thing you have to make sure
10:09that you realize
10:10every day that the process gets bigger.
10:12Consumer agents are different than
10:14enterprise agents. We haven't even
10:16completed the enterprise adoption yet
10:18and we're already moving on to the
10:19consumer agent side. Consumer agents are
10:22very different than enterprise.
10:24Enterprise is about replacing
10:26digital employee or human employees and
10:29it's through coding. It's through APIs
10:31and going into, you know, using up the
10:34amount of compute to figure things out
10:36for consumer agents.
10:38Now you're talking about them working
10:3924/7 to book you a trip, to look into
10:42this, to go through all of the
10:43permutations. The amount of websites
10:45they have to touch, it's continuous. So,
10:48consumer agents on top of enterprise
10:50agents means the compute needs just keep
10:52growing. So again, it gets back to the
10:54simple thing. All bubbles are about
10:57supply being in front of demand.
11:00For the crypto doubters,
11:03we built the guardrails.
11:05It's an empty city. As I say, it's a
11:07ghost city. We We built the
11:08infrastructure. We've been waiting for
11:09the users to come. Well, the users are
11:11coming in the form of agents. And if
11:13people want to watch one video for the
11:15rest of the month
11:17to hear from someone who
11:19can take you through what's happening at
11:21the company level and how the ROIC is
11:25already happening in various forms, not
11:27in the way you want it, which is when
11:29are we going to see the revenues coming
11:30in. Oh, look, Anthropic and Open AI only
11:32have X and the hyperscalers only have
11:35No, John Gray from Blackstone gave a
11:37talk yesterday to his at his event for
11:4030 minutes. It's on YouTube and he
11:43literally went through the five
11:44different ways that his companies, of
11:47which he owns is, you know, has private,
11:51how they're all benefiting from AI in
11:53five different ways to increase their
11:55profitability, which is seeing their
11:57margins grow and he's taking you through
11:59those scenarios. I just don't think
12:00people have really, really thought
12:02thought hard enough about the fact that
12:04there's a higher probability of a good
12:05outcome than a bad outcome.
12:07>> And on the enterprise side,
12:09it'll be interesting to see how that
12:10plays out. I think we had a
12:12a pretty big signal from
12:15the enterprise that was last week or the
12:17week before with Latham and Watkins
12:20deciding to buy
12:22Nvidia GPUs, self-host and
12:25basically ensure that their IP isn't
12:27being leaked to Anthropic and Open AI.
12:29And I don't know exactly how Latham and
12:32Watkins is implementing it, but I
12:34imagine what they're doing is uploading
12:36the the knowledge base of that firm over
12:38the course of decades. And so like every
12:40case, every outcome, every bit of
12:43research they've done that they have
12:44stored somewhere
12:45in a file system. Just when you're
12:47talking about enterprise adoption,
12:48that's I think first before you even get
12:50into agents, it's like, "Okay, how do I
12:52imbue this institutional knowledge that
12:54we've built up over over decades into
12:57this system so that the AI can basically
12:59use that to go achieve our goals." And
13:01that alone is a massive undertaking.
13:05>> So, the question I have is what did it
13:06take him so long?
13:08Um I've talked about Eli Lilly. Eli
13:10Lilly did this a long time ago. Um I
13:13think their initial data center
13:16uh private-owned data center with a
13:18thousand GPUs, I think it's a thousand
13:20GPUs, went up in January, I believe.
13:23It's called LillyPod.
13:25Um they have Tune Lab, which is a way
13:29for them brilliantly to collect
13:31other data,
13:33combine it with their data
13:35on an anonymous basis, but it helps
13:39them on learn from their data while
13:41giving biotech companies the ability of
13:43testing their data their data on on Eli
13:46Lilly's data. So, if you have a a
13:49science lab that has all of these
13:51experiments, the pros and cons that come
13:53and where everything was going,
13:55and you're just putting in there and
13:57seeing what the output comes in, you
13:58have to think about how quickly the
14:00Navier-Stokes thing means that we're
14:02getting to. So, for a law firm to do it,
14:05I guess the reason it took so long is
14:08cuz they didn't have the money that Eli
14:09Lilly did. And they didn't have the
14:11understanding from being a Fortune 500
14:14company. And this is why I think there's
14:16been two levels so far that have been
14:19accelerating. One is the Fortune 500
14:21companies that have the money or
14:22adopting very quickly cuz they can just
14:24write the check and start going through
14:25it, but they also have tons of
14:27tech cons and
14:29engineers that are high-level.
14:31I don't know if a law firm has that. So,
14:33they have to probably go through a
14:34consultant that comes in and says what
14:36they can do, and then they decide to do
14:38it. If they have the money, they make
14:39the investment, they see the benefits.
14:41The other side that already is doing
14:42outside of Fortune 500 companies are AI
14:44native entrepreneurs. They're the ones
14:46that have the ability of using open
14:48source and not needing to worry about if
14:51their data is being used because it's a
14:53tiny little private company that's not
14:55trying to it doesn't have things to
14:56protect. It actually needs to grow, and
14:59the only thing they care about is going
15:01from zero today to a billion revenue in
15:03in 2 years. And before they could have
15:05been competed, they'll probably be
15:06monetized and move on to the next thing.
15:08>> Yeah.
15:09No, I I I think of
15:11>> [snorts]
15:11>> how we implemented at TFTC, everything
15:13we
15:14were feeding the models public anyway,
15:15so I don't care if and if OpenAI or
15:18Anthropic sees it. But to your point,
15:21it is insane. Like I was was uh
15:23demoing it last night at the at the open
15:25party here at Pub Key for this Freedom
15:27Tech Week and uh
15:29I have
15:30my Hermes agents connected to our
15:31company brain and I was like, "Hey, use
15:33the fountain MCP fountains where we host
15:35our podcast uh for RSS." And has video
15:38and I was like, "Hey,
15:40John Arnold and I from 10:31 recorded a
15:41video this morning. We talked about
15:43oil markets particularly and what people
15:45aren't seeing. Like, Ben as well as
15:46imports are going up. Uh it looks like
15:49ships are making it through the strait
15:51at 60%. Go clip that.
15:54And then pull out the juiciest sort of
15:56quote of that. And then a one-sentence
15:58summary of the clip in its entirety.
16:00Post it on my X within 10 minutes. I
16:02didn't even look at X. It was It was
16:04posted. But,
16:05to talk about efficiency, that would
16:07have taken probably 2 hours for somebody
16:09on our team to to go
16:12find it, uh clip it, get the tweet, get
16:15the subtitles.
16:17And I mean, that utility is
16:21very misunderstood right now for most
16:23people. This is just a podcast clipping.
16:27>> Yeah. And
16:28again, and for for you guys, um
16:31the IP is
16:33the using it. Um
16:35the AI models,
16:37they just keep getting better and
16:38better. The capabilities get better and
16:39better. And
16:41if you're involved in them every day,
16:43you know to ask, "Can I do this?"
16:45For people that don't use it often,
16:48they'll see something in X or they'll
16:50someone will tell them about something
16:52and then they'll go in and they'll look
16:53at it then.
16:55If you're not using it every day and
16:56knowing that it's getting better every
16:58single day and you're too worried about
17:00hallucinations and stuff like that, then
17:02you're not going to use it. If you don't
17:03use it, you're screwed. Like, that's
17:05[snorts] the plain simple thing. I think
17:07the value add for people is not
17:09understanding the things that AI can do
17:12out there. It's the ability of just
17:14asking the question, "What can you do
17:15today that you couldn't do yesterday?"
17:17And the more that you use it for those
17:19things, you start going I You've watched
17:21my my Sunday video for a long time.
17:25I don't know if you noticed, but um
17:27I was using a a software OpenBB for a
17:29long time.
17:31And then all of a sudden OpenBB,
17:34you know, unfortunately, start a
17:35business, they close down.
17:38And I know the founder. And it was a sad
17:40day. I I really liked the guy. And I was
17:41using the software because at the
17:44beginning, when I started to do my
17:46video, which was in 2024, the AI
17:48capabilities could not really deal with
17:50it that well. And
17:52he kept making additions to it so that I
17:54could use it. So, from my side, it was
17:56it'll help him and his business by me
17:58using it as a product, showing charts in
18:01it and things like that.
18:04But I had to make a switch during the
18:05summertime. And this was like on a
18:07Wednesday. And I put this stuff together
18:09with inside OpenBB. So, I had to make a
18:11complete pivot.
18:13So, now I'm in a in a bind. So, I go to
18:17OpenAI and I ask the question. I ask
18:19ChatGPT,
18:20"Here's what I've been using. Here's a
18:22sample of the video. Here's the way I
18:24put it together. I need you to redo my
18:26process so that I can have a video done
18:29by the recording on Friday."
18:31That's 2 days for me to have to complete
18:33a completely new process to do something
18:36that takes a while. Um
18:40it took me through to use Google Slides.
18:42It Now, I'd never use Google Slides in
18:45like a big way. I'd only used it,
18:47let's say, five times in my life.
18:50But it told me it was the best way to do
18:52this for a variety of reasons that
18:53match, which in in hindsight was
18:54completely true.
18:57My process is now
18:59been reduced by 70%.
19:01>> Holy crap.
19:02>> Which is amazing, cuz that means I could
19:04put the entire thing together, do the
19:05video on one day
19:07in 4 hours is now my guess. And that is
19:10the thing that's happened is it's
19:13changed it. Claude co-work, because I
19:15had this whole database now of OpenBB
19:17slides, I connected to that folder
19:19knowing that it was going I uploaded
19:21everything from OpenBB, and now when
19:23[snorts] I need to find a slide that
19:24I've used in the past, I just go into
19:25co-work and go, "Can you find the slide
19:27on consumer agents and enterprise
19:29agents?" Which I did literally this
19:30morning, and it gives me the image. Like
19:33this kind of stuff you couldn't do 6
19:36months ago. And so by asking the
19:38question when a when a problem comes up,
19:41how do I solve this as opposed to
19:43panicking and then like, "What am I
19:44going to do?" And try to learn on your
19:46own,
19:47you have to have the instinct just know
19:49that AI has the solution always.
19:52>> So bringing this back to time,
19:54how much time do people have to to get
19:57on the train? And then tying it to the
19:59wall worry, too. How fast, I mean, you
20:01you said it's happening faster than we
20:03expected, but and humans can't
20:05understand
20:06exponentials. What what do you think the
20:08next year looks like? And
20:10what are the opportunity cost if you
20:11don't move?
20:12>> So let's let's break this down by what
20:15people care about each day. Um
20:18so number one, their job. I'm going to
20:21I'll leave health aside for a second
20:23because I don't think that has to do
20:25with this unless you want to go use it,
20:27but for your job, I don't think you have
20:29any more time. Um I think every company
20:32now realizes that they have to use AI
20:34agents and they can they can
20:37the law firm can pay for that.
20:40Maybe let's assume they had a certain
20:43amount of cash in the partnership.
20:45And the partners sat around, and I don't
20:47know what happened, but I'm just saying
20:49if I was at the place, this is what I
20:50do. I'd sit around and we go, "How much
20:52money do we have to buy all these GPUs
20:54and set this up?" Um if we make an
20:57investment based on the cash that we
20:58have plus what's coming over the next
21:00year, what is that going to do from a
21:02CapEx perspective? And since it's not a
21:04public company, they don't have share
21:05it's their partnership. They have to
21:07make the decisions. They go this is a
21:08good investment. How are we going to pay
21:10for it?
21:11You don't think they're going to pay for
21:12it with human beings? Like literally the
21:14compensation they have and maybe it's
21:16not from firing people but maybe it's
21:18not hiring people over the next 5 years
21:20cuz they won't need them.
21:21Maybe it's combination of both.
21:23You have to understand that with agents
21:27comes competition for human employees.
21:29So if you don't want to be one of the
21:32people that's let go. If you want to
21:35empower yourself to go build your own
21:37business to compete with that firm
21:39because you don't have the issue they
21:41have you can actually just use the
21:42public thing and grow your business and
21:44be a a lawyer. You have your your law
21:46degree. Just go be a lawyer and serve me
21:48Jordy. I need I always need a lawyer to
21:50help me with my business.
21:52Um empower yourself to feel that you can
21:54be an entrepreneur and you can compete
21:55with them
21:56before they get rid of you. And the way
21:58to do that is to use it. So I think
22:00within the next year if you haven't done
22:02the usage side the agency side the
22:04empowerment side I think you're in
22:05trouble. From the investment side and
22:07the financial side which is the other
22:08thing I try to focus on
22:11you have to understand that if you're
22:12[clears throat] worried about AI
22:15you're probably also one of the ones not
22:17using it. There's a high correlation
22:19between I'm worried about this being a
22:21bubble it's going to hurt my investment
22:22portfolio and I'm not using it because I
22:24don't believe in it. That is the denial
22:27that people have and I think on the
22:29investment side you're losing money
22:30every day. The stock market not
22:32investing in it. I don't know what
22:33you're doing with your money. I you
22:34think it's a bubble you're reducing it
22:36you've got it safe.
22:37You can make more money investing in the
22:39things that represent what it's going to
22:41look like. The infrastructure build out
22:42is going to continue. We need compute.
22:44That's the reason why like I focus
22:46people on that side.
22:48Crypto. Do your homework now on crypto.
22:50I view this as the beginning of an epic
22:53move in crypto [snorts] because the
22:55guardrails
22:56are valued at zero.
22:58And I hate to say that to everyone but
23:00the people supplying the guard rails are
23:03valued at zero. And the reason I know
23:05that is cuz if you take Ethereum and
23:07Bitcoin out of
23:09the crypto market cap, you're not left
23:11with a lot. It's less than Micron. It's
23:13less like that is the infrastructure
23:14side. Now, I do believe that Ethereum
23:16fits the ecosystem, but not in this
23:19speculative phase where we need the apps
23:21being built on top of Ethereum. And so,
23:23all of these layer twos, the the sum of
23:25them is going to go up in value because
23:27the velocity and the GDP the velocity
23:30and the volume of transactions is going
23:32to go through the roof. So, if
23:33everything that I just said on the work
23:35side, you don't use it, you're in
23:36trouble. On the investment side, if you
23:38don't understand or believe in crypto at
23:39this point,
23:41so you don't believe in AI or crypto.
23:43That's a very dangerous place to be,
23:45folks.
23:46>> And a lot of people are in that
23:47position.
23:47>> Yeah, most are. That's the scary thing.
23:50Most are.
23:50>> Yeah. And it's uh so let's let's walk
23:52through how
23:54the order of operations of how you see
23:56this agentic economy getting imbued with
24:00agency to a higher degree with
24:04digital money and smart contracts,
24:07whatever it may be. Cuz that's uh
24:09that's one thing I've been asking
24:10myself. Cuz you you mentioned crypto and
24:12you have a bunch of different tokens and
24:15each of them have a a market cap.
24:18And
24:21will that's the question like will
24:23stable coins win out? I've fallen in the
24:25Bitcoiner camp. So, I I'm a believer
24:27that at the end of the day, if you're an
24:29agent or human, you're going to want
24:32the the most saleable
24:34currency with the biggest market cap
24:37with the the best money in the digital
24:39economy. So, I think that's Bitcoin. To
24:41your point about L2s
24:43uh and things like that, it's pretty
24:45clear out of the gate stable coins are
24:46winning the the agentic commerce stuff
24:49in the in the very early days. But I
24:50wonder, again, going back to what I was
24:52saying earlier,
24:54do agents prefer Bitcoin?
24:56Um
24:57and
24:58does the Bitcoin stack have the
25:01necessary infrastructure to facilitate
25:03everything that agents are going to want
25:05to do, particularly on the payment side?
25:07>> There's no way. So, um, and again, I I'm
25:10I'm a I have a very unique position on
25:13this. This is why I love
25:15watching the fight between the
25:16Bitcoiners and the programmables. And I
25:18want them to try to bucket me.
25:20Cuz I'm a
25:23in the long run
25:26a Bitcoin maxi.
25:28But, the path to that point, and what I
25:31mean by that is, in the end
25:34there is only one thing left that I can
25:38say with certainty will not be have
25:41their growth disrupted.
25:43So, at the end of the day, all tokens
25:45going up in value, anything you can buy
25:47as an individual investor is about
25:49growth. Everything.
25:51There are a lot of assumptions that come
25:53with growth.
25:55One of them is com- I mean, the main one
25:57is, how quickly will competition come in
25:59to destroy my growth?
26:02In a world where AI allows things to be
26:04instantly replicated
26:08that time goes to zero.
26:10So, if you agree with me that any
26:12innovation
26:14has a lifespan that is far shorter than
26:16it used to be. It's all with Jeff.
26:18You're you're you're in a very difficult
26:20position because the innovator's dilemma
26:23is, okay, I want to create something.
26:25This is a great idea. Let me create it.
26:26Let me hope that there's not 8,000 other
26:28people doing the same idea at the same
26:30time because we all know then there's
26:32not a lot of growth. It's all about
26:34competition. And my belief is that with
26:36billions of entrepreneurs and trillions
26:38of agents all working together over the
26:41course of the next decade that we will
26:43get to creative destruction, Joseph
26:45Schumpeter style, that is instantaneous.
26:48So, at the end of the day, things will
26:49grow, but who wins in that case? The
26:52entrepreneur wins if they create
26:54something and they have a community and
26:55that token goes from 100 to 1,000.
26:58Then it's still 1,000 for the rest of
27:01time.
27:02Well, it's kind of like Ford
27:04stock. So, if everything hits that
27:06point, why did Ford stock stop growing?
27:08Because of competition eventually. Um
27:11there was a better way to make cars as
27:12we found out from Tesla and other
27:14things. So, if you go from 10 to 1,000
27:18>> [clears throat]
27:18>> and it takes 1 year, but it never grows
27:20again, who wins?
27:22Only the entrepreneur and the community.
27:24That's it. And And again, that's all
27:26that happened for that period of time.
27:28But then it stops growing and then what
27:29does everyone go? Well, I got to go find
27:31something else to invest in. And this
27:32just keeps happening and happening and
27:34happening. Bitcoin to me is the place
27:37when that investment stops growing and
27:38you have to go find the next investment,
27:41money goes there. If you've invested in
27:43something you're worried cuz it could go
27:45down in value, too. They might Everyone
27:46might leave and then all of a sudden it
27:48goes down. Where does your money go?
27:50Well, your money goes to something
27:51safer. That's what happens in the S&P
27:53500. People invest in companies. All
27:56people do.
27:58But if you ask them where most of their
27:59money is, it's not 90% is in Tesla
28:01unless they work for the company and
28:02they don't have a choice in their owning
28:04this. Most of their value is in moving
28:07it into a combination of 60/40 and all
28:09these different things. Well, that is
28:10Bitcoin to me. A store of value is the
28:13diversification you have in your life.
28:14It's your real estate, it's your bonds,
28:16it's your stocks, it's your private
28:17credits. All these things that the
28:18wealth managers put into.
28:20A decade from now Bitcoin will be the
28:22only thing left. So, that's the first
28:23thing I want to say is I I I do believe
28:25in that. In terms of the the L2s, I'm
28:28focused on two things right now.
28:31And I'll give two companies that are
28:33straddling the the
28:36the TradFi world and the crypto world.
28:39So, that everyone can just take these
28:41two companies and do the research.
28:42Stripe and Robinhood. Those are two that
28:44matter. Stripe from a stablecoin basis.
28:46They're a transaction-based company.
28:49Um if you go through their stack of
28:51companies that they've invested in
28:52starting with Bridge
28:54and going through to the end now with
28:56Open Router.
28:59Pretty straightforward. Like they're set
29:01up for the agentic side, they're set up
29:03for the stable coin side. And this was a
29:04company that honestly was not a believer
29:07in crypto when you really go back. They
29:09didn't have a focus on it until the
29:11Bridge
29:11>> Mhm.
29:12>> M&A deal. And I think that closed in
29:15February of 2025. I think we heard about
29:17it in October of 2024.
29:19That's a big admission that stable coins
29:22are going to be a big part of the
29:22transition side and they're a company
29:24that's straddling both worlds.
29:26>> And the premium they paid for they yeah,
29:28valued Bridge at what? A billion dollars
29:29on 10 million in revenue.
29:30>> Yep.
29:31>> But it's so you you had to imagine
29:33internally they had an aha moment or
29:35like, "Okay, we're going to overpay for
29:36this."
29:36>> on both sides. The Bridge I mean, to
29:39have a deal that comes that high, Bridge
29:41had no revenues. They had I think the
29:43company had been around for less than 2
29:45years.
29:46>> Mhm.
29:46>> So when you go through the details of it
29:48and you're like
29:50they were they they negotiated a great
29:52deal cuz they believed in it. Stripe
29:54believed in it.
29:56You end up with Open Router at this
29:58point. Like why is Stripe getting
29:59involved in Open Router? Why were they
30:00trying to buy PayPal? Like think about
30:02all the things Stripe They're going
30:03through the entire stack of how stable
30:05coins fit into this.
30:07And that's the agentic side. So that's
30:09one side. And then the Robinhood side is
30:11tokenization. And tokenization is huge.
30:14It has huge implications. There is
30:16nothing more important to Bitcoin and to
30:19the programmable. So the Bitcoiners and
30:21the programmables need to just
30:22understand.
30:23Tokenization is the key thing because
30:26tokenization unleashes the 900
30:29trillion dollars in two ways.
30:32I wrote a paper this week.
30:35You you will not have seen it, but this
30:37weekend I'll I'll
30:39I'll go through it. Um
30:42it's really a call out to economists.
30:43So, for everyone who thinks they know
30:45how economics run, if I said to
30:47everyone, and this is 99.99% of people
30:50on the planet. This is my own unique
30:52I've never seen this written anywhere.
30:53This is a new thing.
30:54Um
30:57how do we stop assets from falling? We
31:00know the fiat system is a Ponzi scheme.
31:02We know it's levered. We know there's
31:03about 120 trillion of physical hard
31:07currency in the world that supports 900
31:09trillion in assets. That is a levered
31:11Ponzi scheme. Okay, meaning if all of a
31:14sudden the 900 trillion tries to come
31:16and get liquid, so they go to sell in
31:19their money to pay off debts, whatever
31:20it is, and we have a version of the
31:22Great Depression or a mini version of
31:23the Great Financial Crisis or even
31:25COVID, then all the assets fall, and
31:27what do the central banks have to do?
31:29They have to come in and print money.
31:31And what is money? Well, that's M2. Why
31:33do they have to do that? They have to
31:34re-liquidify. So, whenever I hear people
31:37in crypto talk about the liquidity
31:38cycle, I'm always sitting there going,
31:40"When am I going to get my chance to
31:41explain to them that that is a myth."
31:43That is when you're in the speculative
31:45phase of crypto. So, for everyone out
31:47there it's like it's a liquidity cycle,
31:48of which almost every Bitcoiner is and
31:50almost every person out there. We need
31:52this. We need the ism to go. We need all
31:54these things to happen.
31:56The reality is for me,
31:58we're about to unleash the 900 trillion
32:00in liquid form. That's what tokenization
32:01is.
32:02What happens to M2?
32:05The Ponzi scheme then ends cuz now you
32:07have 900 trillion dollars of assets that
32:11can theoretically buy a coffee.
32:13So, nobody needs to sell during these
32:15little mini panics because
32:17they already have cash. The reason they
32:19were selling their assets is cuz they
32:21needed cash. Well, now they can post
32:23that money or transact that money into
32:26whatever debt they have. The world
32:28changes overnight because tokenization
32:31increases the M2 in a very different
32:33form. Now, is it as liquid as Bitcoin?
32:35No.
32:36But, can you transfer at some price a
32:38house instantaneously
32:41into this? Yeah, pretty close. I know
32:43this. It's not going to take a lot of
32:45time.
32:46>> Mhm.
32:46>> So that's where the tokenization side
32:48has a huge impact. So what Vlad and
32:50Robinhood and others, but Vlad in
32:53particular
32:54with the Robinhood chain, this is all
32:56preparation for what's going to happen
32:58with tokenization. So those are L2s,
33:01which again
33:02increase the 900 trillion to come into
33:05Bitcoin.
33:06It wasn't going to happen without the
33:08programmables. So for every Bitcoiner
33:10who thought eventually these incumbents
33:13as Michael Saylor said, which I agree
33:14with.
33:16You don't find Bitcoin, Bitcoin finds
33:18you. If you're wealthy, you don't need
33:20Bitcoin. You don't need to believe in
33:21it. And so that money needs to come over
33:23to drive it to a million dollars. Sorry
33:25everyone, but that's what needs to
33:26happen. That's what happened with gold.
33:28Whenever there's a panic, people move
33:29into gold to hide their money. They need
33:31to believe their fiat assets are not
33:33going to work, but that group already
33:34believes in gold. You need them to
33:36believe in this in this whole we're
33:37going to give the money to our kids and
33:39they're going to do a thing that's going
33:40to take too long, especially in the
33:41world I believe in where nobody dies.
33:42You don't want that to be the thing. You
33:44actually want the money to move over
33:45there because of greed. And that means
33:47that the fiat assets become liquid and
33:51everyone goes, "Hey wait, this private
33:52credit fund I have that I can't get out
33:53of? It's now liquid? It's just at a 20%
33:56discount? Do you know how many people
33:57would sign up right now for their pri-
33:59to get their money back in private
34:00credit? How many retail people would
34:03want their money back and say, "I'm
34:04never doing this again. Give it to me."
34:07That's what's going to happen with
34:08tokenization.
34:09>> Yeah, you're just running the calculus.
34:10Okay, if I take a 20% haircut and put it
34:13in Bitcoin, is Bitcoin going to go up
34:14100%?
34:16>> So freaks, this rip was brought to you
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37:01>> I was
37:03for a while
37:04like a real-world tech
37:06asset tokenization
37:09bear. Never really made sense to me, but
37:11then
37:12uh
37:13you think of stocks and how that's all
37:15settled through the DTCC and it's like,
37:17"Okay, the the guardrails
37:19um of
37:21these these digital assets
37:23make a lot more sense for this. It makes
37:25it way more
37:26efficient and
37:28the as we're going through this
37:29discussion, the one question I have,
37:31whether it's the Schumpeter's creative
37:33destruction happening instantaneously or
37:36the ability to
37:38uh get liquidity for for
37:40>> Before you get off of that, I just want
37:41to make sure that people
37:43since you you didn't see how RWAs would
37:46work in this
37:48I just want you to use the house
37:49example. Do you own a house?
37:51>> Yes.
37:52>> Okay.
37:53So, when you buy a house, that process
37:56is painful and it's long.
37:58>> Mhm.
38:00>> Once you have it, if your house goes up
38:02and doubles in value over the next 6
38:04months
38:05and you have tremendous equity, which is
38:07where most of the country, people right
38:09now are trapped in their homes.
38:11They're trapped.
38:12>> Mhm.
38:12>> Why are they trapped? Because they don't
38:14want to have to reset their mortgage at
38:15higher levels. I don't understand how
38:17people don't realize that the speed of
38:20buying a house or selling a house. If
38:22you want to sell that house,
38:25what better way to sell it than to open
38:27it up to all 8 billion people on the
38:29planet to buy it? Like, I don't that
38:32that's there. Why wouldn't you want to
38:33sell a house and have it sold in a
38:35matter of minutes as opposed to the
38:37process that goes on? And people don't
38:39believe a house can sell in a minute.
38:41Once our digital agents are there and AI
38:43agents do all of the paperwork and
38:45everything there and they have all the
38:46background check and you're identified
38:48based on your credit and your collateral
38:49and it's all liquid, it's all on chain,
38:52everything goes immediate. So, that
38:55might take another decade, whatever the
38:56case is. But, when you're investing in
38:58something, and I'll use the stupid
39:01comment that Jason Calacanis made on,
39:03you know, dead cat bounce in Bitcoin and
39:05this will never
39:06I I literally can't believe that people
39:08don't realize that by the time you
39:09invest in something that is obvious,
39:13the value has gone up 50 times.
39:16>> [snorts]
39:16>> You can only invest in things when
39:18they're not obvious. What I'm talking
39:20about right now to someone who believes
39:22in crypto but didn't it see the value
39:25that tokenization RA's would RWAs would
39:28bring.
39:29If one person does it and says, "I sold
39:31my house in a matter of minutes for
39:33higher price than you did. I had 8
39:35billion bids on it."
39:37That will change everyone doing it. So,
39:39again, it'll speed it up because money
39:41makes people do things. Cost reduction
39:43makes people do things. But, being
39:45trapped in your house with that owner's
39:47equity right now, not able to get out,
39:49everyone would sign up for RWAs right
39:50now.
39:52>> So, in that example, somebody has to
39:53live in the house. But, when you say
39:54that, you're basically just selling an
39:56equity portion or or getting a HELOC
39:58essentially to get cash.
39:59>> you want to still be in there, you're
40:00able to get cash for it by just
40:03Wait, it And it goes further than that.
40:05If you're a a small business that
40:07is in a And I have a friend who's in
40:09this situation. So, he has a business he
40:11bought in on Long Island. Are you from
40:14No, you're not from Long Island.
40:15>> From Philly.
40:16>> Philly, yeah, I forgot.
40:17>> I know you're a Philly Giants. I know it
40:18was a hard night last
40:19>> No, no, no. I'm a Jets fan. It was a
40:20hard night on Sunday.
40:22>> [laughter]
40:23>> It's been a hard life. Uh but I'm done.
40:25Knicks won, so I don't really care. Uh
40:29Sixers will get there at some point.
40:30This will be the most disappointing year
40:31ever. You have everything coming in. So,
40:33this will be a very disappointing year.
40:35So, let's go back to the equation.
40:36[laughter] My friend owns a uh beverage
40:38business that he bought a long time ago.
40:41I don't know if you've heard, but kids
40:42don't drink beer. He's not allowed to
40:44sell liquor. It's like a horrible
40:46situation. We were just talking about
40:47it. So, let's assume his business is
40:49bringing in very little cash.
40:52But at same time, he has a value of real
40:54estate that's worth
40:56$5 million. So, $5 million.
40:57So, his revenues have gone down. He's
40:59trying to make payments cuz he has a
41:01belief that the business is going to
41:02grow again, and he's going to be able to
41:04sell something else cuz he has a license
41:06that starts in a year, but he doesn't
41:07have the money to keep going.
41:09So, either he has to go out and borrow
41:11money, and the banks are going to be
41:12like, "Well,
41:14you don't have any revenue that's coming
41:15in. Like, they're really down. Like, we
41:17can't invest in this business." Or
41:20he could just quickly go in and go, "I
41:21just need money for the next 6 months,
41:23so I want to sell off a piece of the
41:25business.
41:26Token, you know, I want to sell off a
41:28piece of it. He can come back and buy it
41:29in 6 months until the revenue comes in."
41:32So, everything happens in a different
41:34form. And again, when you want to go
41:35borrow the money, you have to leave your
41:37your business. You have to go out go to
41:39the banks. You have to go sell them on
41:40this. You have to prepare all these
41:42documents. You have to go to seven
41:43different banks. This is all done via
41:46crypto. So, to me, because it's
41:48programmable and because agents can do
41:50all the work, that's where it becomes a
41:52line. Without crypto, agents can't
41:54replace that function.
41:56>> Mhm.
41:56>> That's the part that becomes important
41:58in this whole thing. Without agents,
42:01the human would not couldn't use the
42:02crypto.
42:03>> coordinate.
42:03>> Exactly. So, agents change the whole
42:06mechanism.
42:07>> Yeah.
42:08Now, I'm thinking of uh just pure
42:09Bitcoin collateralized loans as the like
42:12the the nation
42:14example of this like the ability for me
42:15to get a strike
42:17post Bitcoin get cash get to my bank
42:19account within literally minutes
42:22incredibly valuable stuff
42:23>> and and that's the way it'll be is
42:25everything becomes liquid and you go
42:26through some things will be more liquid
42:27than other things in the case of the
42:29real estate maybe it takes a day to go
42:30through this but that's better than
42:3360 days it's better than having a vig on
42:35it to where you got to pay all this
42:36stuff there's a whole bunch of different
42:37ways where you're monetizing something
42:39that's already worked out
42:40>> then you have the agents construct the
42:41strategy for
42:42the best way to like manage leverage and
42:45payback period look at your like all
42:47right here's the best solution for you
42:48considering your current state
42:50>> the the the analogy for everyone to
42:52recognize is
42:55Uber can't work without the smartphone
42:58Uber can't work without the app store
43:01you can't carry a laptop around and be
43:04doing like you needed to have
43:07the phone
43:08agents are the use case for connecting
43:11to humans so the problem is people don't
43:13think of agents the same way they think
43:14of apps that's why
43:16you know this concept of L2s is very
43:19similar to the taxi side like there were
43:22already taxis why do we need Uber
43:25and the question is everyone should ask
43:26why do we need Uber well initially it
43:28was cheaper significantly cheaper
43:30eventually they merged together and the
43:32cost of Uber went up okay why did the
43:35cost go up what happened was it
43:36regulation was it the business what it
43:38whatever the case was
43:41the agents are
43:43the facing side between the humans
43:46and the end transactions that go on so
43:48whether it's stable coins or whether
43:49it's tokenization they need agents to be
43:51able to do this cuz humans were never
43:52going to be able to get on in wallets
43:54that's the thing I think everyone in
43:56crypto underestimated which I still say
43:58publicly is is is an issue that can only
44:00be solved by agents
44:02it's not easy to set up all these
44:04wallets it's not easy to go in there and
44:06just create them and I guess the side
44:08that's good is I'd rather it be
44:10difficult because it also means there's
44:12a lot of guardrails that are in there to
44:14protect privacy and to make it difficult
44:16for hacking is and the more hackings
44:18that happen, which are happening a lot
44:19more, I think you start pricing out the
44:21weaker wallets and the agents know not
44:24to go to them. So then the agents end up
44:26with the better ones. You have to
44:27understand like the agents are the ones
44:28that reduce the hackings and reduce the
44:31vulnerabilities by knowing which ones
44:33have already done and when they start
44:34making the decision, you start having
44:36less problems, too.
44:38>> Yeah, there was a a bit that I was at a
44:40developer meeting here
44:41uh meet up here last night and that was
44:44obviously in Bitcoin. I think Bitcoin is
44:46the the ecosystem has been the first
44:48target of AI uh
44:50initiated hackings uh and
44:54there's all the lot about it.
44:55>> Yeah.
44:56>> I mean it's been cuz you had Rob
44:58Hamilton from AnchorWatch who basically
45:01with a
45:02a group of other developers when
45:05the Coldcard wallet had an entry bug
45:07that was being exploited by AI
45:10um AI attacks, they said, "Okay, if this
45:13is happening to Coldcard, which many
45:14people thought, myself included, was the
45:17sort of
45:18gold standard of of Bitcoin hardware
45:20wallets." It's like, "Who else can this
45:21happen to?" So they basically set up a
45:23created a harness
45:25to go inspect the code of every Bitcoin
45:27project that they could find a GitHub
45:29for and found hundreds of
45:32>> [snorts]
45:32>> of vulnerabilities within within days
45:35and
45:36responsibly disclosed to many of the
45:38projects. They were patched. Point being
45:39is we're at we're still at the early
45:41stage where
45:43humans are fallible.
45:45Humans we're finding out in Bitcoin
45:47because Bitcoin's the first easy target
45:48cuz it's bare asset, if you get it, it's
45:51hard to get back.
45:52Um
45:54and we're hardening the Bitcoin
45:55ecosystem right now because of that. And
45:57many projects did get hacked over the
45:59last 6 weeks, but many others found
46:02critical vulnerabilities first, patched
46:04them, and the the system overall has
46:07been more robust. We're in this window
46:08where the pain is extremely
46:11uh extremely hard uh extremely painful,
46:14but I think a year from now the
46:16ecosystem will be more robust and secure
46:18than than ever has been because of this.
46:20And it's funny the agents are are doing
46:22the work of inspecting the code bases
46:24uh
46:25presenting patches and and helping to
46:27secure all this.
46:29But going back
46:31to
46:34rate of destruction
46:35you're going to have
46:37incredible liquidity you can
46:39happen to a market of 8 billion people
46:41to sell assets whenever. How do you have
46:43stability in this world? Like what does
46:44stability look like
46:46uh when all this is going on?
46:49Is it the way you describe it I'm like,
46:51all right, it sounds awesome, but it
46:52also seems discombobulating.
46:55>> Um I I think this is the human tendency.
46:58Um if I asked you when's the last time
46:59things were stable?
47:01>> [laughter]
47:02>> Um you know when they were for everyone?
47:04It was when you were a kid.
47:06And it's cuz you didn't know any better.
47:08Um you have more to lose when you get
47:10older. You are getting closer to death.
47:12Psychologically you you're on a journey
47:14and you have kids or you're thinking
47:16about having kids and
47:18uh as someone who has four, I can just
47:22tell you
47:24when my first child was born
47:27uh
47:28I I went from feeling indestructible.
47:31Like I I don't care about death. Like
47:34I'm not frightened by dying. When I die,
47:37hopefully I've lived a good life. I I
47:38can only control what I can and so I try
47:41to be in shape. I try to eat well. I try
47:43to work out. I try to surround myself
47:45with people who bring me joy. All these
47:46different things that I've learned over
47:47life, but when you have that first child
47:51you're vulnerable because now your job
47:53is to protect that child and it's an
47:55instinct that has clearly been handed
47:57down biologically to where and I
47:59remember feeling it like I drove home
48:01from the hospital and I was all of a
48:02sudden I was someone who never worried
48:04about driving. I was like, "Someone's
48:05going to hit me." I got on a plane. I
48:06was worried about the the plane
48:07crashing. Like these instincts start to
48:10hit you. So, I think it's normal for
48:12people to question how
48:15change is going to not be
48:17disruptive. Uh and I don't think humans
48:20can possibly be in a world where they
48:22all agree. I do believe that when you
48:24watch Star Trek in these sci-fi things,
48:27the number one take out of the future is
48:28that we're still fighting wars and we're
48:30still battling for things. We're just
48:33changing on this. I think that's an
48:35animal instinct that goes on in every
48:37single place and people do it
48:39for reasons that we can't have. So, it's
48:41never going to be stable, my friend.
48:43>> [laughter]
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51:08>> Yeah, the pace of the the volatility
51:10seems be increasing. And bringing this
51:12back to
51:13the beginning of um the beginning of the
51:15conversation, we were mentioning the
51:16slowdown. That's one thing I forgot to
51:18bring up, but
51:20the administration and everything we've
51:23talked about
51:24really is somewhat dependent on the at
51:28least for Americans, for the US
51:29government to be be on board with this.
51:32And it seems like the Trump
51:33administration is on board not only with
51:35the AI stuff, but crypto as well.
51:37Clarity Act failed, but the SEC, the
51:39CFTC, the OCC are rule-making anyway.
51:41They're not waiting for a bill. And then
51:44on the slowdown news, everybody was
51:46worried like, "Oh gosh,
51:47we're going to stop this." And then
51:48Trump comes out with a post like, "No,
51:50we're not slowing that slowing down,
51:51actually accelerate. Lean in, stop being
51:53a pansy."
51:54And I think love him or hate him
51:59I think at this particular juncture for
52:00US history, it's important that
52:03this administration has this this
52:04purview and they're they're enabling
52:06this. How important do you think that
52:07is?
52:09>> I I think it's important, but I don't
52:11think um
52:14I think the voters voted for this. Um I
52:16think crypto was a major part of his
52:19win.
52:20Uh I don't think it gets brought up
52:22enough as to the
52:24the impact it had on the election, but
52:26it did. I mean, the numbers are there,
52:28the stats are there, you know.
52:30Crypto packs that put money into
52:32elections had a huge success.
52:35And so I think uh by bringing in a
52:39Treasury Secretary who quotes Satoshi
52:41and who's pro-Bitcoin to bring in a Fed
52:44chair who's pro-Bitcoin
52:46um I think when you go throughout the
52:47administration, he tried to create bring
52:50on people that were pro this. And
52:53whatever his rationale behind it is, I I
52:55didn't get the impression that he had a
52:57vision for it. He just knew that the
53:00people
53:01wanted it.
53:02He did have a belief in the distribution
53:04of of of wealth as a major issue in the
53:06country and bringing back manufacturing.
53:08Now,
53:10if you think about what's happening,
53:11that is what's happening, meaning
53:15we do have a lot of jobs being created
53:17in the construction side. The middle
53:18part of the country is benefiting from
53:20the data centers and from the gas and
53:22from all of the things that go on.
53:24I'm a big believer that entrepreneurs
53:26are going to have a huge impact. If I
53:28could be long something right now, which
53:30doesn't exist, I want to be long
53:33the 200 million entrepreneurs that are
53:35happening and coming in the country. I
53:37want an index of that. I don't want the
53:38S&P 500. I want this AI-native world of
53:42entrepreneurs. I don't want the Russell
53:432000. I don't want any of that stuff. I
53:45don't want public companies. I actually
53:47believe that the growth is coming. Now,
53:50where do I play that? I play that
53:51through crypto and I play it through AI.
53:53So, those are the ways that I play that
53:56situation right now. So, rather than get
53:58into um
54:00whether the administration got lucky,
54:02whether they made the whether they the
54:04voters did it, I think the reality is
54:06that it's happening and they've by by
54:09speeding up the AI side, by making it
54:12more tax-efficient for the hyperscalers
54:15to take out the debt and be able to
54:17depreciate over a longer time period was
54:18a huge thing. It accelerated AI
54:21development. Crypto is directly
54:23connected to when we got the AI
54:25development. Leopold wrote in
54:27Situational Awareness, which came out
54:29after
54:31No, it came out before Trump was
54:33elected. So, it came out during the
54:35election period and only a couple
54:37months. I think it came out June of '24.
54:38>> Mhm.
54:39>> Trump spoke at the Bitcoin event in was
54:41it July?
54:41>> National in July. So,
54:42>> It was before that. If you go back and
54:44look at that point, Leopold thought we
54:46would hit the point we're at now
54:47sometime in 2027. The fact that we hit
54:50it in 2026 to me is a direct
54:53correlation with the administration
54:55saying that AI is a focus, reducing the
54:57timeline on things and basically giving
54:59people the rules that for the next 4
55:01years, you can run as fast as you want
55:03on AI and you have my blessing. For the
55:05crypto crew, it's the same thing. The
55:08Genius Act was critical. As much as
55:10clarity is important, like you said, you
55:12can kind of get around that, which
55:13they've gotten and then once it's going,
55:16tokenization and stable coins and
55:17everything accelerating, which is going
55:19to be accelerated by the agents. By the
55:20time we get to the next election, it'll
55:22again be a focal point and no one's
55:23going to want it to go backwards if it's
55:25reducing the cost of people to
55:28live their lives and I think that's
55:29what's going to happen. One more thing
55:30that fits in with it. So, when we get
55:32back to the stability side, it kind of
55:34directly comes back to the polarizing
55:36situation of of of politics.
55:39Like I said, there's a polarizing
55:41situation inside crypto, the Bitcoiners
55:43and the programmables. And I wish
55:45everyone could all get along together,
55:46but for some reason I go on a Bitcoin
55:48podcast and
55:49well, we don't really say crypto. We
55:51don't get involved and I'm like, I don't
55:53understand this whole thing. I'm new to
55:54the party, guys. I'm looking at this as
55:56everyone's going to win. This fits back
55:58into the question of stability. If I
56:00said to you,
56:01you're going to have chaos that's been
56:03just like the last 50 years.
56:05It won't be World War II and it won't be
56:07the Great Depression, but what you've
56:09gone through the last 30 years
56:12is going to continue. That chaos that
56:13you described to us.
56:15But here's the benefit that comes with
56:16you signing up for that.
56:18You're going to live for another 300
56:19years.
56:21If that's what happens,
56:23like isn't that kind of the the the the
56:26quid pro quo of like you got to give up
56:28something, you're going to get
56:29something? I think when people look at
56:31what the administration has been able to
56:32do, I think you have to put in the
56:34context of if you believe AI is going to
56:37solve lots of problems and be dangerous
56:39at the same time and create lots of
56:40chaos,
56:41if the end result is living a lot
56:43longer, a healthier life, being able to
56:44see your kids grow up, that's a pretty
56:46good,
56:47you know, sign on the dotted line with
56:49the devil as to the outcome that's good.
56:51You think we're going to live to be 300.
56:53I
56:54I've
56:55Marty,
56:56you can go back and read writings from
56:57me for a long time. [laughter]
56:59Um, do I believe in the exponential
57:02innovation in the solution of people not
57:05aging? Absolutely, it's a math problem.
57:07Um, so do I think 300, 150, whatever the
57:10case is, it's hard for people to
57:12imagine, but if I would have told you
57:13that we'd have smartphones in our hands
57:1525 years ago doing the stuff that
57:17they're doing, if I told you that
57:19we'd be solving math problems that
57:21Einstein couldn't solve and that have
57:23been around for 150 to 175 years
57:27in a matter of 88 hours?
57:29>> Mhm.
57:29>> Do I think we're going to solve the
57:31world's greatest science problems? Yeah,
57:33what is the difference between saying
57:34we're going to have people living on
57:35Mars and living to 300? Like what's the
57:37Where Where does it get too crazy? So,
57:39yes, I do.
57:41The wild world. Where are the
57:43bottlenecks? So, obviously compute. We
57:44think compute usage it already is going
57:46up exponentially. We're only on the
57:48cusp. News just dropped. I think that's
57:50going to have a massive Yeah.
57:52Uh it's going to lead to a massive
57:55growth in demand for for these tokens.
57:59Is that the biggest bottleneck right
58:00now?
58:01>> The biggest bottleneck is is humans. Um
58:04you said it. Like everyone's worried.
58:05The politics are making it a major
58:07issue. Like the data centers can't be
58:09happening cuz they make up stuff about
58:11them and don't actually provide people
58:14with the right facts. Because the
58:16Chinese, the Russians, the Iranians, and
58:18anyone that's at either war or in
58:20competition with us wants our politics
58:21to be polarizing can just put something
58:24you know, can take the the Anthropic guy
58:26that worked there for 6 weeks and get
58:28him 170 million views on X, which is
58:31clearly part politics, part geopolitics
58:34in terms of the ability of making this
58:36viral.
58:37Uh humans are the biggest friction and
58:40physics are number two. But they're they
58:42go hand in hand. And so, this is going
58:43to
58:45in a good way, this will have it go
58:47somewhat slower because I think the
58:50humans are doing the right thing with
58:51the pause in AI. Not Not that they're
58:54pausing the development,
58:57but the pause in releasing them. And I
59:00think one thing everyone should think
59:01about, and this is important for fiat
59:03assets in general, meaning for stocks.
59:06Alex Karp was on CNBC last week.
59:10And
59:12he talked about the fact it's just a
59:13matter of time within the next year that
59:15OpenAI is
59:17>> nationalized.
59:17>> Yeah.
59:19Now, I've said this publicly, too, where
59:21not specifically them, but I've said to
59:24investors and I've said it in writings
59:26that it's like, where is the line
59:27between something that's so powerful
59:29that it could take down the entire
59:30system, which is what these guys wrote
59:33about, which they believe. If you take
59:35the internet down, we're all in trouble.
59:37And they were saying that this is
59:39possible. Like not just possible, like
59:42it is possible. It was happening with
59:44some of their things. Not that it was
59:45taking it down, but it was creating
59:46these little places that you don't know
59:47they exist. So, I want people to think
59:50about like when you get a virus in your
59:52body,
59:54you don't find out until the symptoms
59:56start showing up. Like it's in there.
59:58Like you could be you could be sick now.
59:59You don't know. Eventually, your body
1:00:01starts showing the thing. That that
1:00:03swarm outcome of hugging face, that was
1:00:06a symptom. That was a
1:00:08hey, um
1:00:10we got to take some medicine for this.
1:00:11So, the pause is related to it. So, I do
1:00:13think what Alex Karp said is is a very
1:00:16real possibility. And the problem is if
1:00:18a if the most important public company
1:00:20in the world
1:00:22can be privatized,
1:00:25again, this is very powerful for
1:00:26entrepreneurs. It's very powerful for
1:00:29crypto. It is very negative for public
1:00:32companies, in my opinion, to have that
1:00:34kind of situation because then the
1:00:35question is where's the line for anyone.
1:00:37They've been investing in Intel. They've
1:00:38been Once it gets to the point that it's
1:00:40that powerful to military weapon, I
1:00:42don't know where they don't get too
1:00:44involved in things. So, I think that was
1:00:45an important statement. Yeah.
1:00:51Yeah, the stakes are so high. I'm just
1:00:52thinking
1:00:53cuz that and then cuz the next step I
1:00:55wanted to bring up is robotics. And I'm
1:00:56just thinking like, okay, like we're
1:00:58worried about
1:00:59uh stuff happening, these these swarms
1:01:03uh getting getting into the digital
1:01:05world with robotics, it's a whole
1:01:08'nother thing as it enters the physical,
1:01:10and it's
1:01:11Yeah. And yeah. And you talk cuz I
1:01:13wanted to bring up robotics in terms of
1:01:14like token consumption
1:01:17and the opportunity that exists there,
1:01:18and how how how How is that going to
1:01:20balloon?
1:01:21The the usage of of these GPUs. And then
1:01:24you
1:01:24I
1:01:25Now I'm scatterbrained, but like bring
1:01:27back open router. Like what is the
1:01:28market for these tokens even look like
1:01:31at the end of the day? Is the way that
1:01:33we're going and buying $200 a month
1:01:35subscriptions at all these different
1:01:38model providers? Will we look back at
1:01:39that and be like that's completely
1:01:41antiquated. Like he In the future, will
1:01:43we even know what models we're using? Or
1:01:44they'll just be
1:01:46open router like companies that
1:01:48that emerge and do all that for you.
1:01:51>> I I It's very hard um
1:01:54So first on the progression of compute
1:01:56needs for everything and and now we're
1:01:58talking about the edge. So currently
1:02:00we're doing everything token wise in the
1:02:02cloud. On prem is starting. So when you
1:02:05start getting into the law firms, you
1:02:06start getting into um into Eli Lilly,
1:02:09well they're building their own compute
1:02:11providers that way.
1:02:13Think of this is the only analogy I can
1:02:15come up with is um
1:02:16when we went from an agrarian economy to
1:02:19an industrial economy. And John Gray
1:02:21included this kind of visual back in in
1:02:24the presentation I mentioned that's
1:02:25that's on YouTube. And that was in 1870
1:02:28to to 1900. So if you go back to the
1:02:32days of when like
1:02:34when we were truly agrarian
1:02:37we built crops, you know, we we raised
1:02:39crops to feed our community. And that's
1:02:41what we did. Now there were little jobs,
1:02:43there were blacksmiths, there were stuff
1:02:44like that. But eventually you get into
1:02:46industrialization and you get
1:02:47urbanization and you speed up this whole
1:02:49process. When I was traveling to China
1:02:50and I saw the ghost cities, that was
1:02:52urbanization. They were still an
1:02:53agrarian economy that was now trying to
1:02:56get everyone to go to the city because
1:02:57when you go to the city, then you have
1:02:58more economic growth and people get
1:03:00wealthier and all these things. And so I
1:03:01witnessed this whole thing happen in
1:03:03China. I watched them build eight-lane
1:03:05highways.
1:03:06When you're like there's no cars,
1:03:07everybody's in a rickshaw. They were
1:03:09building for the future and how fast
1:03:11they were going to invest in this. So
1:03:13with compute, the only analogy I can
1:03:16give is that when you go from the
1:03:18agrarian to the industrial, what ended
1:03:19up happening? We saw an explosion in
1:03:21people people on the on the on the
1:03:22planet.
1:03:24So, you go from where feeding our
1:03:25community, all the food we need is here.
1:03:28Now, we're going to the cities, we're
1:03:29exploding the population. When I say
1:03:31exploding it, we're going from less than
1:03:33a billion people to where we are today.
1:03:35>> Mhm.
1:03:35>> An extra 7 billion, seven times, and
1:03:38we're shrinking farming.
1:03:40So, if everyone's leaving being a
1:03:41farmer, and now they're going to work in
1:03:43the cities, how the hell do we feed
1:03:45everyone?
1:03:46Those people need food, everybody. So,
1:03:49what do AI agents and humanoids need?
1:03:51They need food, and their food is
1:03:52compute. So, we're at the very early
1:03:55stages, and if you go back to the
1:03:56agrarian example, there's less than a
1:03:58billion agents. There's less like we're
1:04:00at the very early stage. So, whenever
1:04:01people tell me we're going to be over
1:04:02supplied in compute, I'm like,
1:04:04you don't know what you're saying. Like,
1:04:05this didn't exist. We have to feed now
1:04:08trillions of agents.
1:04:10So, every day enterprise agents come on.
1:04:13Like I said, well, now we're going to
1:04:14have the next phase, which is consumer
1:04:16agents. Then behind that, we have FSD.
1:04:20We have
1:04:21>> [snorts]
1:04:22>> humanoids. Well, that's the same as the
1:04:23other agents. No, that brings vision in.
1:04:25Like, they need to work in the world.
1:04:28So, adding vision into the compute needs
1:04:31for a car
1:04:33to make decisions on the fly, for a
1:04:35humanoid to see that grandma needs needs
1:04:38her medicine, and needs vision, and it
1:04:41needs to understand and learn as it goes
1:04:43through it. So, you're talking about
1:04:46compute needs that are far greater than
1:04:47what humans can comprehend, and these
1:04:49are facts as to what's coming. Humanoids
1:04:50are not a distant thing, like they're
1:04:52here today. FSD is here today. So,
1:04:55whenever I just kind of think of people,
1:04:57I'm like, we're only in the first inning
1:04:59of the compute needs. So, to your point,
1:05:01the humanoids and the robotics have a
1:05:02huge impact on the compute needs, which
1:05:04is why the investment side for the
1:05:06memory names, for the semiconductors,
1:05:07all that, why I have my 100 name
1:05:09portfolio. It's like, guys, this isn't
1:05:11over. We're just at the next stage and
1:05:13consumer agents are starting now and
1:05:15that's why meta was up 13% on Monday cuz
1:05:17people are like, well, this is the most
1:05:18downloaded app. What did they do?
1:05:19Consumer agents? Wow, we're at consumer
1:05:21agent time. What does that mean? And now
1:05:22they're starting to look. AMD's up,
1:05:24Intel's up. Oh my god, we need more
1:05:25semis. So, uh energy.
1:05:28Do we have enough energy? Are we
1:05:29building it fast enough, the
1:05:30infrastructure? Um
1:05:33so, on the one side, if you assume
1:05:36static innovation,
1:05:38uh we're in trouble.
1:05:41If you assume innovation,
1:05:43we have plenty. Um and let me let me
1:05:47before people go, he's wrong, go through
1:05:49it. No, we have plenty of power inside
1:05:50the United States for all of the compute
1:05:53I just said, at least for the next 3
1:05:54years assuming it doesn't go parabolic,
1:05:56probably the next five. Where's it going
1:05:58to come from magically? The grid.
1:06:00The grid's old. We don't have enough.
1:06:02Yes, we do. We just can't use it
1:06:03efficiently. We have double
1:06:06the amount of capacity because we can't
1:06:09run it at full. And if people don't know
1:06:10that, they should go look it up.
1:06:13So, you have to think of novel solutions
1:06:14and what AI could bring cuz that's the
1:06:16thing people underestimate is when
1:06:17you're in an exponential innovation,
1:06:19they extrapolate linearly out and it's
1:06:21like, no, no, no, along the way we're
1:06:23going to solve problems.
1:06:25Where does Navier-Stokes fit in that
1:06:26whole thing?
1:06:28Fluid dynamics.
1:06:30Okay, well, that has an impact on gas
1:06:32turbines.
1:06:33Has an impact on boats, on planes. Also
1:06:36has an impact on
1:06:37batteries.
1:06:38You know how important batteries are to
1:06:40the grid? If [snorts] right today we
1:06:42could have a bunch of batteries,
1:06:44we could plug everyone into the grid,
1:06:45not have a problem.
1:06:47One of the reasons why Bitcoin miners
1:06:48have become more attractive in certain
1:06:50states like Texas cuz they're like, wait
1:06:51a second.
1:06:52So, you guys can use the grid when no
1:06:56one else is using the grid, but then you
1:06:57can turn it off because when the power
1:06:59goes up, it's about arbitrage for you
1:07:01guys. You guys are actually like a a
1:07:02synthetic like
1:07:04group that's good for the the grid. Yep,
1:07:07they are. So, that's one of the reasons
1:07:09why Bitcoin miners have become more of
1:07:11an interesting part of this. And there
1:07:13again, how crypto's connected to AI in
1:07:14various ways. Here's the other place.
1:07:18When you're in the situation, if you
1:07:19take the batteries and you connect to
1:07:21the grid and you store all that power,
1:07:23then you can throttle you can just run
1:07:25it all the time and fill it up. And then
1:07:27if we ever need that point cuz there's a
1:07:29a a
1:07:30a weather event or something that drives
1:07:32the demand up because the temperatures
1:07:33go up to 150 in Texas. And everyone's
1:07:36sitting there and they got their air
1:07:37conditioner running all the day and
1:07:38you're Okay, the grid's going to go
1:07:39down. Oh, no, we'll just use the battery
1:07:41that we have stored for the next year.
1:07:43Now, to have that, just like you had to
1:07:45do with Tesla when they created the cars
1:07:47and the batteries, there was no novel
1:07:49solution, but we went from people
1:07:51doubting an electric car
1:07:53to where we are today. When they first
1:07:54came out, I think there was 20 mi of
1:07:57distance or something like that. Go back
1:07:58and read the original roadster thing and
1:08:00how far you could go. But the reason it
1:08:02was not a viable solution
1:08:04is cuz you couldn't drive it that far.
1:08:06You could drive it around the corner,
1:08:07show showed off, and then you had to
1:08:08come back and plug in again. And the
1:08:10plugging in took a long period of time
1:08:11cuz there were no chargers. Now, fast
1:08:13forward, car gets 400 mi of range. The
1:08:17chargers are everywhere. So, I don't
1:08:19think people are thinking enough about
1:08:20how batteries are a solution to the
1:08:22energy problem. And now I have full
1:08:24confidence, full confidence, that
1:08:26between that, the innovations that have
1:08:28already happened this year to allow us
1:08:30to build things behind the meter, which
1:08:32was not a thing before Colossus, all of
1:08:35these innovations are coming, my friend.
1:08:37>> Yeah.
1:08:38That's uh
1:08:39it's funny how
1:08:41the Bitcoin mining industry I've been in
1:08:43it for
1:08:458 years now. And we went through
1:08:48discovering all this and now watching
1:08:50the world wake up to what we've been
1:08:51beating the the table over for for
1:08:54probably [snorts] 6 years since the
1:08:57right before the Chinese mining ban,
1:08:58particularly with the demand response.
1:08:59It's like, yes, we've been telling you.
1:09:01And behind the meter even. That's what
1:09:03uh
1:09:04I was in oil fields in North Dakota.
1:09:08I wasn't personally, but I the company
1:09:09that I that I I worked for him
1:09:12from 2018 to 2021, we did flare gas
1:09:15mining. So we'd bring generators on the
1:09:16well pad, take the gas, scrub it, put it
1:09:19through a generator, mine Bitcoin with
1:09:20it, and there's a ton and it it's been
1:09:23interesting, too. This is talking about
1:09:25the convergence of
1:09:27crypto and AI, Bitcoin, AI. It happens
1:09:30in so many We're talking about energy,
1:09:31we're talking about agents.
1:09:33But the people even Open Router was
1:09:35founded [snorts] by the open the Open
1:09:37Sea team, which was the NFE platform.
1:09:39And their head of strategy
1:09:41was an ex-marathon guy.
1:09:44And
1:09:45I'm going to record next with uh
1:09:47somebody from News Research. He came
1:09:49from Foundry. And like the it's there's
1:09:51this um and I think we've discussed this
1:09:54before, but
1:09:56in my life, the early adopters of AI
1:09:58have typically been people in the
1:10:00Bitcoin industry
1:10:02that are that are
1:10:03there's there's something
1:10:05uh
1:10:06with the psyche of people that that have
1:10:08been in this industry. And I I think the
1:10:10fact that they're in it is a tell that
1:10:12they're early adopters, and
1:10:14uh
1:10:14that's
1:10:16that's the thing I I I don't think many
1:10:17people appreciate is like a lot of the
1:10:19companies that are coming up in AI have
1:10:20people that came from this industry. And
1:10:23to your point about these these
1:10:24convergences are happening at every
1:10:26layer, like even the people layer.
1:10:28>> Mhm. And
1:10:29vice versa, too. Um
1:10:32I'm I'm guessing you've never heard of
1:10:33Ali Yahya.
1:10:34>> No.
1:10:35>> Okay. So Ali Yahya is one of the
1:10:38original partners of A16Z.
1:10:40>> Mhm.
1:10:41>> He is part of the crypto group.
1:10:44So he's been at the place a long time,
1:10:46and I ran into him and I'm going to be I
1:10:48I I just did a video for my subscribers
1:10:51titled crypto, why now?
1:10:54And this was my way of kind of saying to
1:10:56people who are part of my AI
1:10:58subscribers, but this is also for crypto
1:11:00people because
1:11:02like I I've listened to you for a while.
1:11:04Like as I've kind of consumed knowledge
1:11:07to to understand crypto more,
1:11:10I have to go back to the people that
1:11:12have been creating content for a long
1:11:13time.
1:11:14Because as I believe and as you know,
1:11:17when you interview smart people, you
1:11:18consume a lot of that information.
1:11:20There's things I said today that you're
1:11:21have connected for you. There's things
1:11:23you've asked me that have connected for
1:11:25me.
1:11:26Ali Yahya um went to Stanford.
1:11:29He worked in Google X out of school, and
1:11:32then he worked for Google Brain.
1:11:36He's an AI and cryptography expert.
1:11:40He decided
1:11:42to go to A16Z because
1:11:46his story is that he was trying to
1:11:47convince the Google X guys to invest in
1:11:50crypto. It's a great story of someone I
1:11:52never heard of, but I'm using him in my
1:11:54video, and I used him in the video for
1:11:56why now for people to go learn. Cuz I'm
1:11:58like, you should go listen to this guy
1:11:59talk about it. So, the the videos I'm
1:12:02showing are recent interviews with him
1:12:04in May. They raised another fund at
1:12:06A16Z, which I think is really important
1:12:08for people in the crypto side. This was
1:12:10in the the depths of the bear market.
1:12:12So, this is when Bitcoin had been down
1:12:14for
1:12:156 months
1:12:16um or 7 months since since October 10th,
1:12:20and
1:12:21they're talking about taking in $2.2
1:12:23billion for it, and the whole rationale
1:12:26with Chris Dixon, who you probably have
1:12:29heard of. So, Ali Yahya is the person
1:12:31that nobody seems to know. I didn't know
1:12:32him. I knew Chris Dixon for a long time.
1:12:34Ali Yahya is the person I care the most
1:12:36about because
1:12:38he understands the value of the agentic
1:12:40side. He talks about privacy. He's the
1:12:42one that got me so focused on Zcash, and
1:12:45I started to understand from a business
1:12:47fiduciary who's raised money, who now
1:12:50understands, oh my gosh, I think Zcash
1:12:53should be up massively over the next
1:12:55year if my view
1:12:57of the value of privacy, my view of the
1:12:59value of trust. These are all things
1:13:01that I'm realizing crypto's going to be
1:13:02valued off of. It's going to be off
1:13:04privacy. It's going to be off trust.
1:13:06It's going to be off speed. These are
1:13:08metrics that don't fit in the the fiat
1:13:10system. You can't do that with stocks,
1:13:12but there's value for it. That's why the
1:13:14multiple's going down because on the
1:13:15flip side,
1:13:17I don't trust you're going to be here in
1:13:18the next 5 years because terminal
1:13:20value's gone. Like I could do this all
1:13:22day. Your business is too slow, Visa.
1:13:25You're not going to be in business. You
1:13:26better adapt. Like
1:13:28everything is about those things that I
1:13:30mentioned, privacy, like Zcash, the
1:13:33ability to do things and not actually
1:13:35know who's on either side. Should it be
1:13:36bigger than Bitcoin? No.
1:13:38Should it probably be 10% of the value
1:13:41of it? Yeah, my guess is it probably
1:13:42should in the long run if I'm right
1:13:44about privacy. Ali Yahya takes you
1:13:46through his vision of the world and how
1:13:49important agents are to it and it's very
1:13:51hard for me to find people that speak
1:13:53that way. I have to go into the depths
1:13:55of someone who went to Stanford, was in
1:13:56Google Brain, and all this. So, I think
1:13:58as you kind of connect all these dots
1:14:00and you start going through the way all
1:14:02this plays out, the backward side of the
1:14:04power and the electricity side and how
1:14:06it connects back into this, they're all
1:14:08related to AI and crypto being
1:14:10synergistically the thing that matters
1:14:13the most in the next decade. Have you
1:14:15looked into eCash at all?
1:14:17Uh I have not spent ti- I have not spent
1:14:19enough time on eCash.
1:14:21>> Looking into eCash.
1:14:21>> I will. I was saying that the the
1:14:23double-blinded signatures, um
1:14:26I think that if you're looking for like
1:14:27velocity,
1:14:28uh I think eCash is uh
1:14:31is a much much better suited than Zcash
1:14:33right now. I don't know what the Zcash
1:14:34L2s look like, but uh eCash is gives you
1:14:38that perfect privacy, but the speed that
1:14:40which you can transact, particularly for
1:14:42agents. And I've given my agent an eCash
1:14:44wallet.
1:14:44>> Mhm.
1:14:45>> And it's funny uh just watching it go.
1:14:47>> Yeah. I'm like, "Hey, go on LN Markets
1:14:49and trade. Just take like Just messing
1:14:52with like go on LN Markets, you can sign
1:14:53in
1:14:54using your Lightning Network address,
1:14:56and then use Zcash to trade there.
1:14:59Send this money with the Zcash when you
1:15:00send it back, convert it back to Zcash,
1:15:02and it's
1:15:03>> Here's my issue, um as people kind of
1:15:06think of this. I think when
1:15:10So, only reason I care about Zcash is
1:15:12because
1:15:13the privacy side
1:15:15what Robinhood chain like everything for
1:15:18me started with XY
1:15:21So, I have a chain that goes backwards.
1:15:23The mistake people are going to make is
1:15:24doing homework on these things like it
1:15:26matters.
1:15:27>> Mhm.
1:15:28>> Whether something goes from 1 to 100 or
1:15:311 to 200, and something else goes from 1
1:15:33to 300 or 1 to 400 is complete waste of
1:15:35time.
1:15:36Um
1:15:38In the end, they're both going to peak,
1:15:40and they're both going to stop growing
1:15:42at some point. [snorts] And once we get
1:15:45to the point where privacy is is valued,
1:15:48maybe that prevents them from getting
1:15:49combined or Let's assume there's 10 of
1:15:51them.
1:15:52I still believe in the end, and this is
1:15:54a perfect example,
1:15:56the value of privacy relative to Bitcoin
1:15:59should be 10 to 15% just because that's
1:16:03what goes on in certain parts of the
1:16:04world where people need the privacy.
1:16:06>> Mhm.
1:16:07>> Most people don't. Most businesses
1:16:09don't. But, some businesses like an
1:16:11asset manager, they can't have their
1:16:13clients out there Like there's certain
1:16:15components where agent to agent when
1:16:16they're talking, you don't want them to
1:16:17know who it is. So, I just think for all
1:16:20of it, um
1:16:21the rather than get into who wins, who
1:16:23loses, that to me is a dangerous game,
1:16:26especially at this part of the cycle. I
1:16:27think this part of the cycle is like it
1:16:29was for semiconductors in the first
1:16:31quarter. It didn't matter which one you
1:16:32bought. They all went up five to 10
1:16:34times. The pain now is which one do I
1:16:37buy? And that's the knife fight. And the
1:16:39knife fight is much harder than the Oh,
1:16:41we didn't even see this coming fight.
1:16:43And the we didn't see it coming is where
1:16:45we are in crypto in my mind.
1:16:46>> You know what I've realized is
1:16:48this is our fourth or fifth conversation
1:16:49but this one. I think you might be the
1:16:50anti-Ed Zitron. I think you two are on
1:16:52like polar opposites of the
1:16:54ends of the spectrum of
1:16:56of your view on this whole thing. And
1:16:58it's funny that he he's very popular
1:17:00right now and talk about the wall of
1:17:01worry and people
1:17:02uh
1:17:04fearful of the the circular financing
1:17:06and the fact that nothing's here. Do you
1:17:08like it's
1:17:09it blows my mind that somebody
1:17:12like him can get as popular. Um I I
1:17:14think it's people want to confirm their
1:17:16priors, but the I I think you're the
1:17:20you're the anti-Ed Zitron is how I would
1:17:21describe you.
1:17:24>> First of all, I think um there's a
1:17:26reason why
1:17:28uh horror movies are very popular. I
1:17:31think there's a reason why um
1:17:35It's a lot of things people like worry
1:17:37about. Um worrying has just gotten worse
1:17:40over time. So, uh
1:17:42you know I
1:17:43What's that?
1:17:44>> Bears get slaughtered, bulls uh bulls
1:17:46make money.
1:17:47>> No, like so I I'm not
1:17:50>> [snorts]
1:17:51>> Again, I think the fiat system is is is
1:17:54an old system that is not going to
1:17:55produce the returns that
1:17:58people want. I think crypto is a hedge
1:18:00to that. I think AI is a hedge to it,
1:18:02but AI disrupts AI.
1:18:05Um from an investment thing. Like I
1:18:06don't think these are things that you
1:18:07can invest in based on valuation. I
1:18:09think this is all about the speed. It's
1:18:12all about speed. Um that's just it. And
1:18:15investing in speed is very different
1:18:16than friction.
1:18:18And if you just take those two, like I'm
1:18:20investing in speed. I'm investing in
1:18:22friction. And I said, "Well, which one
1:18:23is crypto, which one is fiat?" You know
1:18:27what it is. Friction is fiat. It's the
1:18:29intermediaries slowing things down as
1:18:32much as possible.
1:18:33I want to invest in speed. And you know
1:18:35You know speed is? Speed is about
1:18:37everyone benefiting. So like when you
1:18:39say concentration in circular finance,
1:18:41of course there's circular finance.
1:18:44That is called concentration.
1:18:46Seven companies control the world.
1:18:50Literally. So of course they're lending
1:18:53to each other. That is called where we
1:18:55ended up in. Now,
1:18:56if you would invested in that circular
1:18:59finance back in in 2010, it didn't exist
1:19:02cuz we were we weren't concentrated. We
1:19:04got to this point. So should Nvidia be
1:19:07buying back stock or should they be
1:19:09investing in the companies that they are
1:19:11helping grow this whole thing?
1:19:13>> Well, I mean, I think we've discussed
1:19:15this before, but like how much cash did
1:19:17these companies have on their balance
1:19:18sheet in the 2010s early 2020s? And to
1:19:20your point, they were all just buying
1:19:22back stock. They weren't investing
1:19:24in the infrastructure. So taking
1:19:26a positive view of this, it's like,
1:19:28"Hey, they're actually
1:19:30taking that cash, taking risk with it,
1:19:31investing in infrastructure that we're
1:19:33all going to use." It's
1:19:34they were
1:19:35>> growing too fast and their cash buyback
1:19:37started to become a major part of the
1:19:39market. Let's say at 2014, 2015 because
1:19:42they were growing so fast, they were
1:19:43getting so big. Um
1:19:46this is one of the problems. Like so
1:19:47when
1:19:48cash on the balance sheets
1:19:50is far bigger today than it was in 2010.
1:19:53And this is part of the issue when
1:19:54people talk about the debt. I'm like,
1:19:57you guys can create any scary stat you
1:20:00want. It's like picking a hitter.
1:20:05Batter [snorts] is seven of the last
1:20:06eight. He's hot.
1:20:08But of the last hundred, he's seven of
1:20:10the last hundred. So he's only hot for a
1:20:12short amount of time. He's ice cold for
1:20:14this. You can play with statistics.
1:20:17Look how big the debt market they
1:20:19whenever they show these charts. I know
1:20:20you've seen them on X. Like hyperscaler
1:20:23debt. It was zero before.
1:20:25Now it's big. So the image we get that's
1:20:28big is these big histogram poles.
1:20:31>> Mhm.
1:20:31>> And before it was nothing. There's two
1:20:33stories here.
1:20:35One is, how do companies get so big
1:20:37without taking debt for the prior 10
1:20:39years?
1:20:40Isn't that part of the story? Because
1:20:42the only way these things look big is
1:20:44based on the fact that it was so small
1:20:46before.
1:20:48They have cash. So, if you put in how
1:20:50much cash they're making, they were
1:20:52making tons of cash. So,
1:20:55I don't believe in any of this stuff in
1:20:57terms of this. The cash on the balance
1:20:59sheets of corporates, when you add in
1:21:01the liquid cuz we now have interest
1:21:04rates. So, cash was bigger back then or
1:21:06it was smaller, but the growth hasn't
1:21:08been that big. But, that's because you
1:21:10hold treasuries now because they're
1:21:11actually paying you interest. So, when
1:21:14you combine them together and you take
1:21:15the net debt of the market in terms of
1:21:17the corporate debt
1:21:19or the the gross debt, and then you put
1:21:21in the amount of cash they have,
1:21:24you'd be shocked at how good the balance
1:21:25sheets are in the corporate sector.
1:21:26That's why spreads are so like
1:21:29non-moving. Why is CDS going up? Because
1:21:32of that circular finance concentration
1:21:33risk. You telling me you shouldn't be
1:21:35buying CDS on this and you don't think
1:21:38other hedge funds who are long the the
1:21:40names, the equity names, shouldn't be
1:21:42buying CDS on these names because
1:21:44they're the ones spending all the money?
1:21:45If for any reason they can't spend the
1:21:47money, the whole AI trade goes down. So,
1:21:49isn't this one way? Let me be long the
1:21:52receivers and let them be instead of
1:21:54being short the equity cuz the equity's
1:21:55at all-time highs, guys, if you didn't
1:21:56notice. Like, I don't know debt problems
1:21:58that have ever been in the world where
1:21:59the equity's at the all-time highs. It's
1:22:01the junior part of the stack. So, if the
1:22:03debt isn't issue, shouldn't the equity
1:22:05be down first? That's what happened in
1:22:06every That's what happened with the
1:22:07banks. That's what happened with the oil
1:22:08stocks. But, instead they're at the
1:22:10highest level ever. So, for all of the
1:22:12spenders right now,
1:22:14rather than short the equity, just go
1:22:16buy the CDS in the event that something
1:22:17happens. You'll make a lot of money on
1:22:19it. You can lever it up. Yeah.
1:22:21It's always
1:22:23an incredible pleasure speaking with
1:22:24you, Jordy. I appreciate you uh
1:22:26taking time. Anything that we didn't
1:22:28touch on that uh uh that we should make
1:22:30the audience aware of?
1:22:31>> We covered a lot.
1:22:32>> Yeah.
1:22:33>> Uh only thing I I'll say is um
1:22:36the last
1:22:38year, I've spent all my time
1:22:41focusing on
1:22:43launching something to help educate
1:22:45people on AI with eventually crypto
1:22:48being part of it.
1:22:50Starting in since you watch the stuff
1:22:52that I do in my video, starting in June,
1:22:54I started telling people, "Okay, I'm
1:22:56going to be launching a crypto site.
1:22:58It's going to happen in September,
1:22:59October."
1:23:01Now, I could have launched something in
1:23:02July. Why did I say September
1:23:04October? For those who know me, I work
1:23:06even in the summertime, even though I'm
1:23:08in Maine. Um
1:23:09this was solely about me timing things
1:23:11based on where I thought the agentic
1:23:13side would kick in.
1:23:15And I believed it would happen later in
1:23:17the year. So, I've been talking about
1:23:18consumer agents as the big trade for
1:23:20next year that crypto would be the big
1:23:21trade. Anyone who saw me speak in Fort
1:23:24Lauderdale or LA or any of the places
1:23:26this year where I got on stage and I
1:23:27said,
1:23:28"The Micron of next year is crypto."
1:23:31So, when you're looking for what's a
1:23:3210-bagger or 13-bagger over the course
1:23:34of a year,
1:23:36it's going to be because consumer agents
1:23:38start getting into needing the
1:23:39guardrails and we're finally there. So,
1:23:41the only thing I want people to realize,
1:23:42the reason I'm now launching the crypto
1:23:44part of it, which is on the site and for
1:23:46people who have already subscribed, so
1:23:47they were always getting AI, now they're
1:23:49getting crypto, so they're getting two
1:23:50videos a week. These will not be on
1:23:52YouTube, but they're also getting the
1:23:53research. And I bring that up because if
1:23:55you're a person that doesn't feel like
1:23:57you understand and you can't get out of
1:23:59the worry, if you don't understand
1:24:01crypto, and if you watch last week's, I
1:24:03compared it to learning cricket as a
1:24:05American baseball fan. Like, cricket is
1:24:07a very complicated game of which I'm not
1:24:10going to take the time, but learning a
1:24:11new sport, it takes a lot of time. You
1:24:13got to see the nuances. Crypto's going
1:24:15to be a very difficult learning curve
1:24:16for for people, far more difficult than
1:24:19buying AMD, Intel, or Micron. You know
1:24:22that language. This is a new world, and
1:24:24unfortunately, a lot of the crypto
1:24:26people are going to scare you.
1:24:28Uh a lot of the trad fi people are going
1:24:29to scare you. Marty's job is to be here
1:24:31and keep you from being scared.
1:24:33>> [laughter]
1:24:34>> If you don't want to be scared, check
1:24:35out Marty. As uh somebody who watches
1:24:38your videos and is a subscriber, it's uh
1:24:41it's been incredible amount of value for
1:24:42me personally. So, thank you for doing
1:24:44it, and uh thank you for joining us. No
1:24:46problem. And send me your thoughts on
1:24:47the video. It's getting released
1:24:48Wednesday morning, so Why not on crypto?
1:24:50I'll I'll
1:24:51I'll have to go manually buy a train
1:24:53ticket and then watch [laughter] it on
1:24:54the train.
1:24:55Agents aren't there yet. Peace, love,
1:24:57freaks.
1:24:58Thank you for listening to this episode
1:24:59of TFTC. If you've made it this far, I
1:25:02imagine you got some value out of the
1:25:04episode. If so, please share it far and
1:25:06wide with your friends and family. We're
1:25:09looking to get the word out there.
1:25:11Also, wherever you're listening, whether
1:25:13that's YouTube, Apple, Spotify,
1:25:16make sure you like and subscribe to the
1:25:18show. And if you can leave a rating on
1:25:20the podcasting platforms, that goes a
1:25:22long way. Last but not least, if you
1:25:24want to get these episodes
1:25:26a day early and ad-free, make sure you
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1:25:31You can go to fountain.fm to find that.
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1:25:46Thank you for your time, and until next
1:25:48time.

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