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He Nailed Bitcoin's Bottom… You NEED to Hear His Next Prediction — Transcript

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0:00But it would point towards the fact that
0:01we're about 8.5% of the way through this
0:03current bull market.
0:04>> Bitcoin is up big off of its lows.
0:07Long-term holders have barely sold, and
0:09Bitcoin is now stalling out around
0:10$83,000. Is this the start of the next
0:13bull market or just an unusually strong
0:15bear market rally? And what do investors
0:17need to know about all of this? Hello,
0:19and welcome to Milk Road Crypto, the
0:20show that still has PTSD so bad from
0:22last year that we still cringe a little
0:24bit whenever anyone says October. Today
0:27is Monday, October 12th, and Matt
0:29Corallo is back with us today. Matt is
0:31the director of research and analytics
0:33at LookIntoBitcoin, and one of the best
0:35on-chain analysts in the entire
0:36industry. Matt is going to explain
0:38what's going on with crypto. He's going
0:39to tell us what's happening with
0:40Bitcoin. I have no idea what we're going
0:42to cover in this episode, but I know
0:43it's going to be good. If that sounds
0:44good to you, make sure you like and
0:46subscribe. Share this episode with
0:47somebody who's going to enjoy it. And as
0:49a reminder, our podcast today is free,
0:51and that would not be possible without
0:52our wonderful partners at Nexo, the
0:54digital asset platform that lets you
0:55trade, earn, and borrow all in one
0:57place, all from one account. So, stay
0:58tuned for more information about them
1:00later in the episode. But for now,
1:02welcome back to Milk Road Crypto. A
1:04long-time friend of the show, Matt, how
1:05are you, sir?
1:07>> I'm very well, thank you. How are you?
1:09>> I'm great, Matt. It's good to talk to
1:11you again. The last time you were here,
1:13Bitcoin was trading at around $64,000,
1:15and things are a little bit different
1:17today. We are just under 83K at the time
1:19of recording. Uh maybe start us out with
1:21a high-level outlook of of your view on
1:24Bitcoin here and and what's changed in
1:25the story so far.
1:27>> Sure. So, I would like to
1:30semi-humbly
1:32claim some victory on the previous
1:33episode, August 18th, $64,000. We really
1:37timed that to perfection has Bitcoin's
1:39price bottomed, because I think the next
1:41day we pumped about $10,000, which was a
1:44lovely surprise. But big picture,
1:46I think a whole lot has has really
1:48changed. I I I still maintain that
1:50bullish thesis. Of course, there's going
1:52to be ups and downs and chops along the
1:53way. But I feel like a lot of the
1:55investors waiting for October the 6th
1:58for a 1-year bear market. We're waiting
2:00for a $50,000.
2:02I think there's there's very few bearish
2:04arguments which which really have the
2:06legs to stand on, at least based on, you
2:09know, historical data, based on kind of
2:11correlations that we're seeing equity
2:13and commodity markets, based on macro
2:15factors, derivative market technical.
2:17All of these things we'll dive into it,
2:19I'm sure, but all in all, Bitcoin's
2:21looking strong, looking healthy. This
2:23looks very much like a a rally off the
2:26lows to to really kick off the next bull
2:28market.
2:30>> Great. Okay, well, I have a ton of
2:31questions. I read a bunch of your
2:32research recently, but uh before I dive
2:34into all that, I know you've prepared a
2:36bunch of charts specifically for this
2:37episode for our audience. So, I'll just
2:39let you take us away, dive into to what
2:41you've prepared, and and let's get into
2:43this.
2:44>> 100%. So, my favorite part about these
2:46episodes is just the chaos because we
2:48don't prep this at all. John just trusts
2:50that I'm just going to give everyone
2:51paralysis by analysis and bring 50
2:53different charts to run through, but I I
2:55promise we'll we'll keep it fairly
2:57digestible. But but first and foremost,
2:59did Bitcoin bottom out? A lot of people
3:01are saying, you know, this time was
3:02different. We didn't have a 1-year bear
3:04market. It didn't drop 70-80%, but from
3:08an on-chain analysis perspective, and
3:09and this isn't just true for Bitcoin,
3:11it's true for all markets. The thing
3:13that drives price higher or lower is
3:15supply and demand economics. And we were
3:17seeing signals based on the actual
3:19movement of coins
3:21that there was a very high probability
3:23that the the low was essentially in.
3:24Now, the the clearest indication of that
3:26in my mind, and one chart that really
3:28visually displays this, is the realized
3:31cap huddle waves. Now, this is the
3:33influence on the cost basis or average
3:35accumulation price by different age
3:38cohorts, which does sound a little bit
3:39confusing. But essentially, at what
3:41point have those investors that have
3:43held Bitcoin for at least 3 months
3:45influenced at least 80% on kind of that
3:47cost basis, the average accumulation on
3:49Bitcoin. Now, this can be viewed in two
3:51ways. It can be viewed in long-term
3:53holder conviction or a lack of
3:55short-term holder speculation. But, both
3:57of them coinciding and and kind of being
3:59applied simultaneously, especially when
4:02this metric surpasses 80% has always
4:06always marked a Bitcoin bear market low.
4:08Now, we can get into a few more data
4:09points
4:10a little bit later which kind of
4:12reaffirm this because again, we want
4:13confluence. There's no holy grail
4:14indicators. But, I I think people
4:17looking at metrics like these, looking
4:19at the the absolute seller exhaustion. I
4:21mean, I think we covered this in the
4:22last episode, but we had the cold card
4:25exploit, we had the Clarity Act pushback
4:27and then rejected. We had
4:30AI bubble causing miners to pivot and
4:32sell all the Bitcoin. We had all of
4:34these terrible terrible
4:36factors, these bearish catalysts and
4:38fundamentals, treasury companies
4:39selling, etc. And price continued to
4:42march higher. This was a true dictionary
4:45definition of seller exhaustion. And
4:47when we finally did start to see
4:50some new capital flowing in, once we
4:52start to see that long-term holder
4:53supply of Bitcoin start turning to the
4:55downside indicating that capital was
4:57coming in and willing to buy Bitcoin at
4:59these prices, like it usually does, it
5:01marked a pretty good opportunity to
5:03accumulate Bitcoin proceeding some
5:05bullish price action. And And that's
5:07where we still are. We We really
5:08actually haven't seen any signs of
5:11exhaustion to the upside, a very
5:13overheated overextended market. This has
5:15been a very healthy, very spot-driven
5:17rotation from other markets, equities,
5:20bonds, commodities, etc. into Bitcoin.
5:23And I think this still has a long way to
5:25go, of course. And the exception being
5:27if we have a World War III or a big tail
5:29event which causes everything to crater
5:31and crash, but we can't really rely on
5:33those. Basing ourselves on the data,
5:35working in probabilities, I still think
5:37there is a very significantly high
5:39probability that Bitcoin is at a
5:41significantly higher price in the
5:42not-too-distant future. This pullback on
5:44Bitcoin is scaring a lot of people, and
5:46I am not one of them. So, if you want to
5:47see what I'm not selling and why what's
5:49on my watch list and when I'm going to
5:50be deploying more capital into these
5:52markets, you can join Milkroad Pro
5:53today. It's just a dollar. The link is
5:55in the description. I answer questions
5:56day and night in Discord. I'll see you
5:58there.
5:59Okay. So, what I'm hearing you say on
6:00these two charts is that long-term
6:02holders are showing maximum conviction.
6:04Short-term holders are not coming in to
6:06speculate, but there is new capital
6:08coming into Bitcoin. All of that spells
6:11a bullish outlook. Is that Is that a
6:12good summary of of the the information
6:14here?
6:15>> You hit the nail on the head. You just
6:16basically I was rambling for 5 minutes,
6:19and you you nailed it in 10 seconds.
6:21Perfect. [laughter]
6:22>> I try to help synthesize this
6:23information. Okay, great. I'm with you
6:25so far. Uh let's keep going.
6:27>> Let's continue. So, there's there's two
6:30different almost points you want to see.
6:32You want to see long-term holder
6:33conviction, but the way we really define
6:35long-term holders is just someone who's
6:37held Bitcoin for a long enough period of
6:39time to to basically have a negligible
6:42chance of spending it over the next 2
6:44weeks. That's what a true dictionary
6:46definition long-term holder is. But, you
6:47do get a lot of people who just buy the
6:49top and then hold until the bottom and
6:52then capitulate anyway. Just because
6:54you've held Bitcoin for a long time
6:55doesn't necessarily mean you're you're a
6:57good investor or a good trader. The
6:59unfortunate reality is most investors
7:01are wrong most of the time. And when we
7:03see peak long-term holder conviction by
7:06those that have been in the market for a
7:07long period of time, but also a similar
7:10amount of capitulation by those that
7:12were maybe just kind of hoping for a
7:13quick buck. Again, looking at the
7:15long-term holder distribution in terms
7:17of the spend output profit profit ratio,
7:19that the realized profit and losses on
7:22chain.
7:23Again, this turning negative indicating
7:25a majority of realized movement on chain
7:28by long-term holders was occurring at a
7:29loss occurred at the bear market lows.
7:33We also
7:34This chart might look a little bit messy
7:35and and overwhelming at first, but if we
7:37just focus on the red line, which is the
7:39median realized price. A lot of people
7:41were waiting for Bitcoin to drop beneath
7:43the realized price, which was somewhere
7:44around $50,000 as Bitcoin was bottoming
7:47out. Now, that is that average
7:48accumulation price. That cost basis for
7:50all market participants. But, the thing
7:52is, that's very much weighted by people
7:55that were buying Bitcoin at a fraction
7:56of a penny on Satoshi's coins, which
7:58haven't moved in, you know, well over a
8:00decade. So, if we look at the median
8:02realized price, which isn't the mean
8:03average, it's what 50% of people have
8:06paid above this price and 50% have paid
8:09beneath this price. If we look at
8:10previous Bitcoin bear markets, and once
8:12we drop beneath this medium, again, it
8:15this is, you know, buying when there's
8:17blood in the streets. And it has marked
8:19all of the previous bear markets, and it
8:21marked this bear market low, as well.
8:23And if we look at the long-term holder
8:24MVRV, so again, isolating for just those
8:27more experienced, longer-term holders,
8:29potentially more sophisticated investors
8:31in the market. When we look at the MVRV,
8:33which is this green line, which is
8:35essentially just the price divided by
8:37this median long-term holder realized
8:38price,
8:39the actual experienced capitulation was
8:41worse than the previous bear market. So,
8:45again, I think the argument of, you
8:46know, this time was different, no one
8:47could see this coming.
8:49I think if you were looking through a
8:50more traditionalist lens, waiting for
8:52the seasonality effect, which really
8:55doesn't have that much data to back it
8:57up.
8:58It was different, but I think for those
9:00of us within the on-chain space, you
9:02know, this this ticked all the boxes to
9:03say, again, no no one can know for
9:05certain, but it ticked all the boxes to
9:07say there's a there's a good probability
9:08at this $60,000 region that your Bitcoin
9:12is is, you know, buy one get one free
9:13Satoshis is pretty good value.
9:15>> Got you. Okay, so what I'm hearing you
9:16say here is that based on a lot of
9:18on-chain metrics and indicators, all the
9:20conditions are that one would be looking
9:23for as an on-chain analyst for Bitcoin
9:25to have bottomed in its bear market have
9:26been met, and you're kind of saying like
9:29it doesn't guarantee the bottom's in,
9:30but the evidence you need to make the
9:32argument that the bottom has been put in
9:34is now on the table. Is that that what
9:35we what you're saying here?
9:37>> 100% yeah.
9:39>> Got you. Okay, great. Well, let's keep
9:40going.
9:41>> Let's keep going. So, one of my favorite
9:44visuals and data points is this one
9:46because it doesn't just work for the
9:48previous bear market. It works for the
9:49bull and bear markets. Now, this takes a
9:52little bit of explaining, but
9:53essentially what we're looking towards
9:54is the amount of Bitcoin that was held
9:56by long-term holders when a bull or bear
9:59market started. Now, rather than looking
10:01at the the cyclical waves, if I just go
10:03back to this chart here, rather than
10:06looking at the ups and downs
10:07individually throughout a cycle because
10:09if we look at the previous Bitcoin bull
10:10market, we almost had three distinct
10:13waves of selling from long-term holders
10:15as we first run to 70,000, as we first
10:17passed 100,000, and as we peaked at that
10:20all-time high. Now, if you look at
10:22these, you can see well, we didn't have
10:23this big kind of long distribution, this
10:25big FOMO influx of speculative capital.
10:28But, if you look at it as a cumulative
10:30percentage, you take all of those down
10:32periods in long-term holder supply, and
10:34again, look at that as a percentage from
10:36the starting value of long-term holder
10:38supply,
10:39that percentage throughout the previous
10:41three bull and bear markets has been
10:43within a percentage point. Practically
10:46identical. Very interesting, almost
10:48behavioral economics that we see. And if
10:50we look at that percentage of long-term
10:52holder Bitcoin that has moved so far in
10:54this most recent bull market, it's only
10:56been about 3.16%
10:58of that long-term holder supply. So, if
11:00you kind of overlay that onto the three
11:02previous cycles, it's actually eerily
11:05similar. The the rate at which we're
11:06actually seeing this distribution, this
11:08new inflow of capital to short-term
11:10holders. And if we look at the returns
11:11from this point, we're about 50% up, but
11:15given the fact that we're only about 3%
11:17of long-term holder distribution, we
11:18usually see somewhere around 37, 38%.
11:21This data point alone, and and again, I
11:23wouldn't focus on any one data point.
11:25It's always better to react rather than
11:26predict, but it would point towards the
11:28fact that we're about 8.5% of the way
11:30through this current bull market.
11:32>> Okay, wow. So, this is interesting. So
11:33this is saying that the bull market has
11:35already started, but we're just not even
11:3710% of the way into it. Um, that's
11:39that's a really interesting data point.
11:41So you're you're saying that you're see
11:42you see data that not only have we
11:43bottomed, but the new bull market has
11:45fully started here.
11:47>> I mean, so asterisks next to this it it
11:49this isn't kind of perfectly identifying
11:52when the bull and bear markets begin.
11:53This is us kind of retrospectively
11:55entering the dates at which these cycles
11:57start. But once you kind of fit in the
12:00the all-time high price points, the bear
12:01market low price points, you can see
12:03that we usually see almost an identical
12:05amount of movement from long-term
12:06holders, and then overlaying that
12:08historical kind of price action related
12:11to that distribution, again, it aligns
12:13almost perfectly to what we historically
12:14see.
12:15>> Got you. Okay, so it's guaranteed then
12:17basically. No, I'm just kidding.
12:18>> [laughter]
12:19>> No, I appreciate the nuance. I I I think
12:21that's important. Okay, cool. But this
12:22is this is helpful to see. Thank you.
12:24>> Yes, and and I think again, it's it's
12:27important just to not look through the
12:28lens of on-chain data
12:31because, you know,
12:32there's never going to be a situation in
12:34which it nails everything 100%. There's
12:36a little bit of interpretation
12:37potentially required. And realistically,
12:40if we saw a huge sell-off in equity
12:42markets, if we saw, you know, very
12:44unfavorable macroeconomic conditions,
12:46it's hard to see a situation in which
12:48Bitcoin would really
12:50thrive and and really have this big bull
12:52market if everything else was going
12:53down. I mean, that's the idealistic, you
12:55know, Bitcoin
12:56fan, Bitcoin, you know, enthusiast
12:59ideology, but is it a reality? Maybe
13:01not. But one thing that I think we
13:03really do need to be looking towards,
13:04and and a lot of people look towards the
13:06global M2 data. I know it's very popular
13:08in the previous Bitcoin bull market, but
13:10then we kind of diverge. Global M2 was
13:12running to new all-time highs, and
13:13Bitcoin was lagging behind. A lot of
13:16people thinking that maybe this is a you
13:17know, a data point which doesn't really
13:19matter anymore.
13:20But I think if you look at it on a
13:21year-on-year basis and look at the the
13:23rate of acceleration, the rate of
13:24contraction in this global M2, It aligns
13:28to Bitcoin's price action significantly
13:30more accurately. There's a There's a
13:32much higher degree of correlation
13:34between these two data points. And we
13:36can see since
13:38late 2025 on a year-on-year basis,
13:40global M2 has been in a period of
13:42contraction or or at least the rate of
13:44acceleration has decreased
13:45substantially. But we can see this
13:47bottomed out on July the 2nd, 2026,
13:51when the Bitcoin's price bottomed out,
13:53July the 1st. We can also look at the US
13:55dollar strength index, which shows
13:58something very similar as well. And
14:00again, rather than looking at the raw
14:01value, look at the year-on-year basis.
14:03When did the DXY top out on a
14:05year-on-year basis, given the fact these
14:07are inverted to inversely correlated?
14:10July the 2nd, 2026, the day after
14:12Bitcoin's price bottomed out. So, again,
14:15it doesn't matter if you're looking
14:15through an on-chain data standpoint, if
14:18you're looking at funding rates, if
14:19you're looking at technical standpoints
14:21of us bouncing from that 200-week
14:23macroeconomic data, all of these in
14:25confluence increase the probability of
14:27the outcome coming to fruition.
14:29>> Okay, so there's some some macro data
14:31you're bringing in this too, not just
14:32looking at the on-chain indicators, but
14:34looking at other things of liquidity and
14:36the the value and the strength of the
14:37dollar. And you're saying all of that
14:39seems to coincide with evidence that the
14:41bottom has happened already and is
14:42behind us and we're now moving into a
14:44new bull market.
14:45>> 100%. Now, one thing we've been working
14:47on recently is trying to kind of put all
14:51of these pieces of the jigsaw puzzle
14:53together because it can be overwhelming.
14:55It It's very easy and I I I definitely
14:57contribute to this to some extent to to
14:59gain paralysis by analysis, you know,
15:00there's 100 different charts, there's
15:02certain ways to interpret them, there's
15:03certain nuances of well, we we only
15:06really factor this in when that happens,
15:08etc. So, one thing we've been working on
15:11is to try and piece these all together
15:13in a way that can kind of dynamically
15:15evolve as Bitcoin changes because
15:17clearly
15:18Bitcoin as an asset is changing. We've
15:20gone from a few billion dollars in
15:21market cap to a few trillion dollars,
15:23and the bear markets seemingly are no
15:25longer 70, 80, 90% to the downside. That
15:28volatility has been muted. So, what
15:30we've tried to do is build what we're
15:32naming the confluence framework. So,
15:34trying to kind of aggregate the
15:37derivatives, the psychology, the
15:39inflows, outflows, the macroeconomic
15:40data points, and and do so in such a way
15:43that it can be applicable not just to
15:45Bitcoin, but we can also apply this to
15:47equity markets, commodity markets, et
15:49cetera. And what we can see once we
15:51piece all of these puzzles together, as
15:53Bitcoin's price was bottoming out
15:55beneath $60,000, we basically got the
15:57perfect combination from all of these
16:00different components of confluence that,
16:02you know, we were at a pretty good
16:04opportunity to start scaling into
16:05Bitcoin. Now, this is something we're
16:07going to be working on. Again, there's
16:08no holy grail indicator. There's there's
16:10certain things that we're going to need
16:11to, you know, continue working on,
16:13continue improving to make sure. But,
16:15again, we wanted to make this
16:16actionable. So, each of the kind of six
16:18major components that were that were
16:20basing this analysis on, when you apply
16:23them individually either as a a lump sum
16:25strategy or as a dollar cost averaging
16:27in a strategy, they'll outperform, you
16:29know, blind
16:30lump sum Bitcoin or blind dollar cost
16:32averaging into the market. So, I think
16:34it's important to focus on
16:36the data points which are actionable,
16:37because I feel like a lot of people in
16:39the space, you know,
16:40are a little bit vague, they're a little
16:42bit, you know,
16:44you know, opaque with their own
16:45analysis, and we want to be 100%
16:47transparent and do it in an open source
16:48way. So, that's our current emphasis at
16:50looking into Bitcoin. Now, that's the
16:52sales pitch over. We we can, you know,
16:54carry on with the data things there.
16:55But, it just goes to show that it
16:57doesn't matter if if you're someone
16:59that, you know, really just focuses on
17:00the on-chain data like we do, or if you
17:02are more of a macro investor,
17:05there's there's a a pretty startling
17:06amount of alignment regardless of the
17:08lens that you're analyzing Bitcoin
17:09through.
17:10>> Okay, man. That that was very helpful.
17:12And I think that this combined picture
17:13outlook is really helpful. We at Milk
17:15Road Pro and our community have a
17:17Milkroad Macro Index indicator we have
17:19as well and we're trying to do something
17:21here like trying to bring together a
17:23confluence of data and create a single
17:26indicator that can kind of give a good
17:28look at the big picture. So I think this
17:30is really powerful and that seeing that
17:31confluence with the price action really
17:33kind of reinforces the thesis here and
17:34makes that very clear. If you're
17:35listening,
17:37you know, the the the images look great
17:38on this one. So if you can switch over
17:40to YouTube for this episode, I recommend
17:41it. But yeah, the confluence that you
17:43see in this combined metric here is
17:45really encouraging on the price action.
17:47So yeah, thanks for for putting that all
17:49together. It's a great that's a great
17:50tool.
17:50>> Yeah, 100% and again, it's a work in
17:52progress. We're going to continue to try
17:54and build upon this I'm sure like you
17:56guys at Milkroad are doing.
17:58And one thing that I think really this
18:00reiterates is you want to be a
18:02contrarian. Now,
18:04in the previous episode, I mean, your
18:06audience is amazing, genuinely great.
18:08But the past few months it's been
18:11a weird time being bullish. You know,
18:13usually in Bitcoin bear markets, once we
18:15start seeing some positive price action,
18:18people are starting to get a little bit
18:19excited again. This bear market, I have
18:22never seen as much anger when we started
18:24rallying off the lows. Now, in
18:25retrospect now, people might say, "Oh
18:27no, I wasn't I wasn't that person." But
18:29man, that sentiment was some of the
18:30lowest I've seen and you know,
18:32surprising and a lot of people, you
18:34know, maybe saying,
18:35"But the institutions are here. We
18:37should have done X, Y, or Z." Or you
18:40know, when we were looking at the ETFs,
18:41the outflows were massive. There was
18:43there was no obvious kind of reason to
18:45be bullish at that point.
18:46But what we can see again, it it doesn't
18:48matter if you're a a retail investor or
18:50an institutional investor, if you look
18:52at the inflows outflows of the ETFs for
18:55example on a 28-day average basis,
18:58when we see peak outflows,
19:00it's usually a good time to do the
19:01opposite. When we see peak inflows, it's
19:03usually a good time again to do the
19:05opposite. And we did this analysis not
19:07just across the Bitcoin ETFs, but across
19:10the S&P, the Nasdaq ETFs, uh GLD, gold
19:13ETFs. Through all markets, a majority of
19:16investors are unfortunately wrong most
19:19of the time. This is just the mass
19:20psychology quantified, and whether you
19:22perceive this as, you know, fear and
19:23greed or, you know, overexuberance to
19:26the upside or whatever it may be.
19:29A large part of people's behavior and
19:31actions are just highly correlated to
19:33the price action. So, it's very
19:35difficult to to internalize and go
19:37against those natural biases that we
19:39have. Because realistically, when
19:40Bitcoin was beneath $60,000, and you see
19:43a huge plethora of content from
19:45influencers and a
19:47KOLs in the space saying, you know, I
19:49think we go to 50K. I think we bottom in
19:51October. All of these things, it's very
19:53hard to take a step back and focus on
19:54the data and you know, unobjectively
19:57kind of
19:58process this all and take action against
20:00that. So, I'm not saying that this is
20:02easy and and and certainly it's not like
20:04we we nailed exactly where the bottom is
20:06or we'll nail exactly where the top is
20:07in the bull market.
20:09All we're trying to do is is, you know,
20:11relay the data that we're seeing in an
20:13unbiased and, you know, uninfluenced
20:16way. And it seems like not only did this
20:19work for the Bitcoin bear market low,
20:21but right now again, I still see a lot
20:23of value in Bitcoin.
20:25And we're going to try and continue to
20:26do that even at the next bull market
20:28peak, whether that's at 150K or 350K,
20:31when everyone's calling for a
20:32million-dollar Bitcoin. At that point,
20:34when when people are starting to post
20:36about their new orange club Lamborghini
20:38on Twitter,
20:39you know, maybe have a look at the data,
20:41maybe, you know, check those internal
20:43biases and and you know, try and imp-
20:46react impartially, almost like a like a
20:48data robot to to what's really occurring
20:51on chain and and through a macro lens.
20:53>> You know, one of the weird things about
20:54crypto is that the longer you're in it,
20:56the more accounts you seem to end up
20:58with. You buy in one place, trade
20:59somewhere else, earn yield somewhere
21:01else. And if you actually need capital,
21:02you end up having to sell something that
21:04you probably wanted to keep. That's why
21:06we at Milk Road are partnering with
21:07Nexo. These guys keep the whole thing
21:09under one account. You can buy, trade
21:10crypto, earn interest on what you
21:12already hold, and even borrow against
21:14your capital without having to sell it.
21:15All in one spot, all in one account, all
21:17on Nexo. So, if you need liquidity, but
21:19you don't want to give up your position,
21:20or you're already holding crypto, and
21:22you want to be able to do more with it,
21:23I think Nexo is worth your time. We love
21:25working with them. I think you will,
21:26too. Tell them Milkroad sent you. I
21:28really appreciate that perspective,
21:29Matt. And yeah, I think it's it's
21:30important to stay tied to data and what
21:32the market is actually telling you,
21:34rather than emotions, um both in bull
21:36markets and in bear markets. And I think
21:38that perspective is something that
21:39stands out to me about your analysis
21:41every time I have you on the show. So,
21:42yeah, fully agree on that. And uh yeah,
21:44I think this is this is a great data
21:46point of looking at how the ETF flows
21:48have kind of matched Bitcoin's price
21:50movement. And you know, sticking to that
21:52data will help protect you against
21:53emotions on Twitter.
21:55>> Yeah, 100%. Now, one thing I wanted to
21:57cover next was something a little bit
21:59more exciting. And I'm going to be a big
22:00hypocrite here, because I've just said
22:02react, don't predict. But it is time to
22:04start doing some bull market
22:05predictions. I'm one for one calling
22:08bear market lows publicly on the
22:09channel. So, I think it's time to try
22:11and predict how the next bull market
22:13could go. So, of course, this is a
22:14little bit more speculative. It's a
22:16little bit more fun. But one thing that
22:18I think people are maybe underestimating
22:20is just how fast Bitcoin can move. I
22:23think people are seeing the fact that
22:24the institutions are here, these ETF
22:26inflows and outflows are maybe slowing
22:28things down. But we saw how fast Bitcoin
22:31went from $64,000 to $84,000. I mean,
22:35blink of an eye, we did the entire first
22:38decade or so of Bitcoin's price action
22:41when we ran up to 20K. That took years
22:43and years and years for Bitcoin to first
22:45reach that. And then we can jump $20,000
22:47in a couple weeks now, and you know, act
22:49like it's nothing. Bitcoin still has
22:52this, you know, potential to do the
22:55unthinkable. And a big part of that is
22:57due to the fact that a large part is in
22:59the hands of long-term holders. They
23:00don't really want to sell. and this
23:02gives us almost this money multiplier
23:05impact where $1 of capital coming into
23:07the market actually increases the market
23:09cap by more than a dollar. And just
23:11basing it off of this illiquid supply
23:14held by long-term holders is probably
23:15closer to somewhere like a 6.2x. Now, of
23:18course, this is changing every single
23:19day.
23:20But what this gives us is a huge
23:22opportunity of a relatively small amount
23:25of capital rotations out of other
23:27markets, maybe out of an AI bubble,
23:29maybe out of the bond markets as people
23:31lose some confidence. And a very, very
23:33small rotation would actually see a
23:35pretty rapid price appreciation period
23:38for Bitcoin. So, again, this is
23:40something we cover fairly regularly, and
23:42we've mentioned it many times in these
23:44episodes is looking at Bitcoin as a
23:45percentage of global capital. Now,
23:48recently Bitcoin in the most recent move
23:50we had to about $87,000 reached about
23:530.32%.
23:54So, still less than a third of a
23:56percentage of all invested global
23:59capital. Now, we peaked at just under
24:01half a percent, but again, you have to
24:03keep in mind the liquidity supply is
24:05almost constantly expanding, and and
24:07valuations may be getting overinflated
24:10in other industries. So, just to reach
24:11our previous or I guess current all-time
24:13high in a percentage of global capital
24:16terms, Bitcoin doesn't need to reach
24:17$126,000.
24:19It needs to reach about $134,000.
24:23Now,
24:24if we were to reach gold, for example,
24:26then we'd be looking at maybe a
24:29multi-million dollar Bitcoin. Is Is this
24:32realistic? I think in the most recent in
24:34the upcoming bull market, it may be a
24:36little bit optimistic. But if we were to
24:38reach even 1% of global capital, that'd
24:41be about $281,000
24:43a Bitcoin. But again, keep in mind that
24:45this global capital amount is expanding
24:48constantly.
24:50In about 10 years' time, 1% of global
24:51capital will be worth over half a
24:53million dollars. Now, I I I think that's
24:55pretty conservative, to be honest, for
24:57for a Bitcoin target in 10 years time.
24:59If we were to talk about 3% of global
25:01capital, then again, we could be talking
25:03around the ballpark of 1.75 million
25:06dollars in 10 years time. Now again,
25:08this is very speculative, but I have a a
25:10very intriguing kind of comparison we
25:13can we can discuss next. But I just
25:15wanted to hear your inputs if you had
25:16any kind of
25:17you know, thoughts.
25:19>> I think this is a very bullish chart.
25:21I'm really glad you shared it with us
25:22and seeing it put in those terms is a
25:23really wild thing to think about. Like
25:26valuing Bitcoin not just against the US
25:28dollar, but against the total share of
25:30global capital or against, you know,
25:32gold's share of gold global capital. Um
25:35and then today versus 10 years from
25:37today, that really like changes the
25:39perspective on the dollar valuation of
25:40Bitcoin. Um and I yeah, I would like to
25:42hear more of your thoughts on this cuz
25:44I've had people in our community and
25:45people on Twitter start to have this
25:47conversation of where do we think the
25:48cycle top is for Bitcoin here? I've
25:50heard predictions of you know, somebody
25:51gave a range of 170 to 240k and then
25:55someone else shot back, "That's way too
25:56bearish. My minimum is 250k to 340k." So
26:00people are all over the place in a wide
26:01range of predictions on this. I I'd love
26:03to hear more detail from you about where
26:05you think that's going to shake out in
26:06in this in this next cycle here.
26:08>> Okay, so I'm hesitant to stamp my name
26:11on an exact price point. I'm an analyst.
26:14I always have to play both sides and and
26:15always have a get out of jail free card.
26:17But what I will do is give a very
26:19interesting comparison and hypothetical
26:22scenario of how the Bitcoin bull market
26:25could play out. So, if we look at the
26:28silver price action and what I'll do is
26:29I'll very quickly just pull that up in
26:31the previous bull market that silver
26:33experienced. So again, if we look to
26:352020, very similar to when Bitcoin's
26:37price bottomed out.
26:39The silver market cap and and we get
26:41this comparison of being a digital gold,
26:42but I think this for the time being is
26:44is a more realistic target.
26:46The silver market cap at the bottom was
26:48around 1 trillion dollars.
26:51Bitcoin's market cap has just bottomed
26:53out in this most recent bear market at
26:55about 1.1 trillion dollars.
26:58In the previous Bitcoin bull market, we
27:00had about 700%
27:02return, 720, 820. Uh we did about a 7x
27:06in in our returns.
27:09From around 15,000 to what, 126,000
27:12dollars. Not too bad.
27:15Silver in the previous bull market did
27:18about 600% returns, 593%. So this would
27:21still be diminishing returns. But
27:24keeping in mind, we're starting from
27:26around the same 1 trillion dollar
27:28starting figure.
27:30In about 3.4 years, it did nearly a 7x,
27:33well, 6x too.
27:35About 7 trillion dollars, 1.246%
27:38of global capital. Now, if Bitcoin were
27:40to replicate those returns, and and
27:43we're doing a slightly shorter time
27:44frame here considering the fact that
27:46Bitcoin usually moves a bit quicker due
27:48to the trading hours available. So if
27:50you look at the calculations, you'll be
27:52able to see, you know, we're aligning it
27:53by trading hours. So in 2.3 years, which
27:56kind of aligns with the traditional
27:584-year cycle that many would would
27:59anticipate Bitcoin to play out, that
28:01would point to a 400,000 dollar Bitcoin
28:04price. Now, is that a little bit
28:06optimistic?
28:07Potentially. But if we look at the price
28:10action that silver experienced and align
28:12those lows, we've been following it
28:13pretty closely actually. The the
28:15correlation's about 90% so far
28:17throughout this Bitcoin bull market with
28:19that run that silver experienced. So
28:22400,000 dollars, if that is a little bit
28:24optimistic, we can measure it as the
28:26percentage of global capital. About
28:29390,000 dollars. We could look at it as
28:31the same multiple of global capital
28:34percentage from the lows to the highs.
28:36So about 0.227 to about 1.246. That's a
28:39360,000 dollar Bitcoin. Or if we just
28:42match the market cap that silver
28:44experienced at the peak in the most
28:46previous in the most recent bull market,
28:48that would still be around a $340,000
28:50Bitcoin. Now, BlackRock aren't
28:53recommending a 1 to 2% allocation of all
28:56investors to put their portfolio into
28:57silver. We're not seeing millions,
29:00billions of dollars from ETFs going into
29:03silver and treasury companies built
29:05explicitly for the purpose of
29:07accumulating additional silver. We don't
29:09see over 80% of the supply held by
29:11long-term holders. So, is this
29:13optimistic? Yeah, I think it's
29:15potentially a little bit optimistic, but
29:17is it realistic and a genuine
29:18possibility? I think if the stars align,
29:22it it's within the realm of of
29:24feasibility.
29:25>> Matt, that is wildly bullish, and I was
29:27not expecting you to be so wildly
29:28bullish, but I I like it. And you know,
29:30I think that I've heard a lot of other
29:32people say this that a lot of investors
29:34in the digital asset space have sort of
29:35PTSD, and we've been sort of in a
29:37general crypto bear market, um, you
29:39know, outside of Bitcoin for almost 5
29:41years. And you know, like Tom Lee said
29:43in an interview just this last week,
29:44like people are not bullish enough. Um,
29:46so maybe some of these price targets
29:48sound a little bit, you know, moon
29:50boyish, but they may not be completely
29:53outside of what's possible. Not
29:54guaranteed at all, but certainly, you
29:56know, on the table as possible.
29:58So, I really appreciate you laying all
29:59that out. Um, is there more you want to
30:01show on this cuz the other side of this
30:02question for me is, do you have like a a
30:04bearish, you know, counter side of this
30:05of like what the the low end of what you
30:08might expect from Bitcoin on this cycle
30:09would be uh cuz I'd like to hear your
30:10thoughts on that, too.
30:12Uh, so I don't have any data to hand on
30:15what my kind of bearish outcome would
30:17be.
30:18I'm bullish on Bitcoin, and and I do
30:20think that a lot of people are maybe
30:23underestimating what can happen based on
30:26the previous cycle, which to many would
30:28would be underwhelming to see only, you
30:30know, uh a seven or eight X in the
30:33Bitcoin price action.
30:34But, I think the previous cycle was
30:37almost a transitionary phase because in
30:40the previous um uh, market, sorry,
30:42excluding the last one,
30:44they really relied on a huge amount of
30:46retail FOMO and influx of of huge
30:49amounts of capital at those bull market
30:51peaks just to provide sufficient
30:52liquidity for these OGs, for these large
30:55holders, to really just start scaling
30:57out their positions without having a
30:58huge amount of slippage.
31:00You really required, you know, tens of
31:02millions, hundreds of millions of
31:03dollars coming in just to not crash the
31:05market if you hold a thousand or ten
31:07thousand Bitcoin. Whereas in the most
31:09recent Bitcoin bull market, you weren't
31:11selling to retail speculators relying on
31:14stimulus checks or, you know, favorable
31:16macroeconomic conditions. You were
31:18selling directly to Michael Saylor and
31:20BlackRock who almost provided these
31:22passive flows of millions, billions of
31:24dollars every single week that would
31:26allow you to sell and not have this big
31:28influence on the underlying price and
31:30market cap of the asset. So, there was a
31:32great article by Jordi Visser calling it
31:34Bitcoin's IPO moment. Typically, when a
31:36company goes public, it doesn't
31:38immediately skyrocket it.
31:40It's almost a chance to provide the exit
31:42liquidity for those early adopters,
31:44those early investors, those that took
31:45the real risks of adopting and
31:47accumulating the asset in the very early
31:49days to cash out again without really
31:52catering the market or just having the
31:54sufficient liquidity to do so.
31:56Whereas this time around, I think
31:57Bitcoin has been legitimized and proven
32:00to not be a flash in the pan asset. The
32:02fact that we have Wall Street here, the
32:04fact that we have the the biggest
32:05allocators globally, we have pension
32:07funds, we have sovereign states fighting
32:10over, you know, accumulating in
32:11strategic reserves.
32:13And now investors are aware that Bitcoin
32:16isn't, you know, just something to to
32:19speculate on. It isn't just a high beta
32:21play of of US equities. And now there is
32:24the, you know, the means to to get this
32:26exposure. There are the the inflow
32:28potentials through the ETFs or even
32:29proxies such as MSTR and other treasury
32:32companies. I really do feel like
32:34if we were to break any models in this
32:37cycle, it wouldn't be to the downside,
32:40but it would be more likely to be to the
32:42upside.
32:43I think people expecting continued
32:45diminishing returns
32:47are underestimating the fiscal
32:49irresponsibility that governments
32:51globally can really
32:53show. And and again, keep in mind that
32:55those dollar figures for for upside
32:57targets are based on, you know, dollars
33:00in 2 years, 3 years time.
33:03That might not be the same purchasing
33:04power. So, again, you have to say
33:07if we're giving price targets of
33:08$200,000, you know, we can already see
33:11if Bitcoin were to reclaim its all-time
33:12high at 126K,
33:14that buys you significantly less than it
33:16bought you at 126K last time. So, we
33:18also need to factor in the deep basement
33:20of fiat currencies. We're not just long
33:22Bitcoin, but we're also essentially
33:23shorting these fiat currencies. But, I
33:26really do think that
33:28Bitcoin at some point it is going to
33:29turn from a snowball into an avalanche.
33:32And the I don't want to say supply
33:34squeeze or supercycle, etc. But, I do
33:38think that people
33:39are really underestimating the potential
33:41that we have this time around.
33:43>> I really appreciate that perspective
33:45because there's there's a lot of things
33:47that I've heard from other guests that
33:48have talked about that. I've had Jordy
33:50Visser on this channel and we've talked
33:51about his bull case to the upside. Tom
33:53Lee, same thing. His his price
33:55predictions on Ethereum are very very,
33:58let's say, ambitious. But, just like you
33:59said, the risk of breaking the models is
34:01to the upside here. And that's something
34:04I think people are maybe not discounting
34:06enough is when they make these kinds of
34:08forecasts and estimates. So, thank you
34:09for that. And then the other thing that
34:11came to mind when you were talking is
34:13gold, right? When when the ETFs for gold
34:15launched, gold as an asset was around $2
34:17trillion. Matt Hogan of Bitwise, who's
34:19been on the channel a couple times in
34:20the last couple weeks, given great
34:21interviews, but he always talks about
34:23how when those ETFs launched, gold was
34:24around $2 trillion market cap, and now
34:26it's, you know, seasoned the market and
34:28people have gotten used to those
34:29vehicles, and now gold's at like 30
34:31trillion or something.
34:32So, yeah, there there's a lot of upside
34:34here that I think people overlook. Matt,
34:36let's let's bring this back to Q4 of
34:382026 because I really appreciate the
34:40outlook on what's possible over the the
34:42the coming cycle.
34:44But what's your outlook for the rest of
34:46of this year and where do you think
34:47Bitcoin goes from here? Any callous or
34:49washing? Just give me a some thoughts on
34:50the outlook for the short term here.
34:53>> Sure. So I think the bears, I mean the
34:55bears, I was going to say that last
34:57time, but they do love moving the goal
35:00posts. First it was we'll we'll break
35:02off we'll we'll bounce back from the 50
35:03week, then it's we'll bounce from the
35:05the local highs, then it's we'll bounce
35:07from the 100.
35:08They're always moving the goal posts,
35:09but I I think above the 100 weekly
35:12moving average, essentially the two-year
35:13moving average was at it's currently at
35:15$90,000.
35:17Above that there's there's very little
35:19upside resistance, but I will say there
35:21is a certain degree of mean reversion
35:24that is to be expected or at least, you
35:26know, calming and and, you know,
35:28recuperating after a, you know, 50% move
35:31to the upside in a very short space of
35:33time. And and Bitcoin, you know, as much
35:35as we we've talked about how it can
35:37surprise people to the upside and how it
35:39can provide these, you know,
35:41huge asymmetric returns. If we look at
35:43the previous bull market, there was
35:45three separate instances where price
35:48essentially did nothing for at least six
35:50months.
35:51We spend a lot of time just kind of
35:54flatlining. It's very typical for
35:56Bitcoin. It's only a very short
35:58percentage of days or a very small
36:00percentage of of days I should say where
36:02we have these big massive returns to the
36:04upside or downside. And most of the time
36:06we are kind of just being a little bit
36:08boring, kind of re-anchoring people's
36:10expectations of what fair valuations for
36:12Bitcoin are. And I think the
36:14institutionalization of that is only
36:16going to exacerbate kind of these
36:18transitionary periods where we flatline
36:20around $80,000, potentially allow people
36:23to reset their minds and think, "Okay,
36:25that's a that's a fairly reasonable
36:26price and start scaling in. So, I think
36:30new all-time highs would be a little bit
36:31optimistic. I feel I think earlier in
36:34the year I said $100,000 before the end
36:36of the year was a possibility and I do
36:38stand by that being the case, but
36:40realistically after multiple consecutive
36:43months of green candles, you'd expect
36:45just a little bit of a cool off. Now,
36:47I'm not a big seasonality player. I'm
36:49not thinking, well, it's October, we
36:51have to go up because we always go up,
36:53but realistically, you know,
36:55as I said, a a 50% pump to the upside,
36:58usually we cool off a little bit. And if
37:00we look at the previous Bitcoin bull
37:02market, which looked incredibly similar
37:04as we rallied off the lows through that
37:06one-year moving average, through that
37:0750-week, retesting that previous
37:10all-time high, you know, that was very
37:11typical. It was very bullish to almost
37:13have this
37:14dip to the downside and big rebound. We
37:17haven't really experienced anything like
37:19that yet. We have the 200-day moving
37:21average and the short-term holder
37:22realized price around $75,000, but
37:25again, they're they're they're rising
37:26every single day. It It wouldn't
37:28surprise me to have a little bit of a
37:30sell-off, a little bit of a cool-down,
37:32reset expectations, give the bears just
37:34a glimmer of hope before the final
37:36slaughtering, and then we can really,
37:38you know, rally to end the year,
37:39potentially into to six-figure
37:41territory, which I would like to see.
37:43And and, you know, I don't want to
37:44speculate on exactly how 2027's going to
37:47play out. You know, we we could be
37:48delayed due to midterm certainties.
37:51There could be escalations in the Middle
37:53East. There's all of these unknowns, but
37:56I will say
37:57from a macro
37:59derivative, technical, psychological
38:02standpoint,
38:04if you just zoom out and and look at
38:05where we are in the cycle,
38:07I think there's there's no reason to to
38:09be bearish here.
38:10Maybe you're a bit sidelined and you're
38:13a little bit angry, so you kind of
38:15wishing for for slightly higher prices,
38:17but at slightly lower prices, I should
38:19say, sorry. But the the way I'm looking
38:21at it is if you look at something like
38:23the the Bitcoin investor tool, which is
38:25is simply just a two-year moving
38:26average. And if you were to look at
38:28where we currently are, which is beneath
38:29this, is it sits at around $90,000.
38:32If you look at all the previous
38:33instances of of Bitcoin beneath this,
38:35clearly it was deep valuation territory.
38:38It was, you know, a great opportunity to
38:39buy. And if you look at people who were
38:42waiting for this to break above before
38:44accumulating in all the previous cycles,
38:47you don't look back and laugh at them
38:48because they didn't nail the low, you
38:49know? You wouldn't look back who had a
38:51cost basis of 30K in the last cycle and
38:53think, "Man, you must be gutted that you
38:56didn't buy at 15K." No, it was a great
38:58entry price. If you look at the previous
39:00cycle, again, it was about a 2X off the
39:02lows. It's about 6 and 1/2 thousand
39:03dollars after we bottomed it, you know,
39:05just above $3,000.
39:07No one looks back and regrets those
39:08accumulation opportunities. Same in the
39:10previous cycle, about $400 after
39:12bottoming out at around $200.
39:14It's still valuation territory. And if
39:17you believe Bitcoin is this asset that's
39:19going to reach 1 plus percent of global
39:21capital, which is still a tiny fraction.
39:23I mean, all of the largest allocators
39:26and and, you know, big capital managers
39:28in the world are suggesting a multiple
39:30percentage portfolio allocation to this
39:32asset, and that's only going to grow.
39:34And the money multiplier effect being so
39:36high, 1 to 2% is still multi-millions of
39:39dollars per Bitcoin.
39:41So, if you do think Bitcoin is going to
39:43reach seven-figure territory, then
39:44really you need to be looking at this as
39:46a 99.2%
39:47discount rather than being salty that
39:50you weren't able to accumulate a few
39:51percentage points lower.
39:54>> Mark Crosby, thank you so much for
39:55coming on Milk Road Crypto. I really
39:56appreciate your data-driven analysis and
40:00your clear-headed and, you know, calm
40:02view of these markets here at a time
40:04when there's so many emotions going in
40:05both directions and and so many fears to
40:07the downside and like wild numbers to
40:09the upside. Um it really helps to have
40:11that grounded outlook. So, our audience
40:13at Milk Road Crypto loves you, and I
40:14always appreciate having you on. Thanks
40:15for being here. Where can we send people
40:17to find more of you and your work
40:18online?
40:20>> Sure. So, if you go to Looking to
40:21Bitcoin on Twitter or YouTube or the
40:23website, you'll find all of our
40:24analysis, all our charts, etc. And for
40:27me personally, if you go
40:28@macrocrosthypro, you'll find my, you
40:30know, other pieces that I I like to put
40:32out. And if you're heading to any
40:33conferences soon, I'll be at Bitcoin
40:35Amsterdam in a few weeks' time.
40:37And there's Benjamin Cowen's conference
40:39in just over a month in Miami, Into the
40:41Cryptoverse. So, if you're there,
40:42definitely come say hello. My favorite
40:44part about being in this space is
40:45actually going to these events, meeting
40:47people, coming on podcasts, and just
40:48talking to to people like yourself and
40:50like-minded people, just to, you know,
40:52who who really have the vision and and
40:54kind of a shared goal in, you know,
40:56spreading the word of Bitcoin, not like
40:58it's a cult or anything, but, you know,
41:00just trying to educate people on, you
41:02know, monetary debasement, freedom, and
41:05censorship-resistant money, and and all
41:06those good things.
41:08Yeah, if if you're around, please reach
41:11out. I'd love to connect.
41:12>> Well, thank you so much for being here,
41:14man. I'm really looking forward to
41:15having you on again soon, and I will
41:16hopefully cross paths with you at some
41:18of these conferences soon. But in the
41:19meantime, thanks so much for being here.
41:21I really appreciate it.
41:22>> Always a pleasure. Looking forward to
41:23the next one.
41:25>> Thank you all for joining us. I hope you
41:27all learned something today and got a
41:28little bit more bullish. I know I did.
41:30So, until next time, stay safe, stay
41:31educated, stay bullish, and we will see
41:33you all on the next episode of Milk Road
41:34Crypto. Thanks for being here, everyone.
41:36Bye.
41:36>> [music]
41:36>> Thanks for listening to Milk Road. If
41:38you enjoyed the show, make sure you like
41:39and subscribe. And if you're struggling
41:41to find winners in the market, that's
41:43exactly what Milk Road Pro is built
41:44[music] for. Our analysts have called
41:46some of the biggest winners early, and
41:48Pro lets you see what they're buying
41:49next, every trade they make, and the
41:51research behind every position. [music]
41:53Check out Milk Road Pro at the link
41:54below. Everything you hear on Milk Road
41:56is for informational purposes only.
41:58These are our personal opinions,
41:59>> [music]
41:59>> not financial advice, and we may own
42:01some of the investments we talk about.
42:03Always do your own research and make the
42:05decisions that are right for you. See
42:07you next time.

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