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Has Bitcoin Hit The Bottom? — Transcript

by Anthony Pompliano · 10,339 words · 1,460 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00July 29th when we have the FOMC, are
0:02they going to raise rates? There's a
0:04possibility, a good possibility, it's
0:06like 35 to 40%, that they will. If they
0:10don't, then I think Bitcoin will be
0:12above 70,000 when that time comes
0:14because I think people are going to
0:15start factoring in the fact. What's
0:18going on guys? Today we have a great
0:19conversation with Jordy Visser. We talk
0:20about what's going on with the AI
0:22midcycle slowdown, why he thinks that's
0:24over. Why is he getting excited about
0:25Bitcoin? He thinks that the bottom is
0:27forming. On top of that, we talk about
0:28robotics, commodities, and what public
0:30stocks Jury's getting interested in.
0:32This conversation is full with lots of
0:33nuance, and we cover some of the big
0:35stories, things like Apple, and what's
0:37going on with Meta or XAI and Grock. So,
0:40you're going to enjoy it. Here's my
0:41latest conversation with Jordy Visser.
0:43All right, Jordy. This week, Grock and
0:45Facebook both made very big
0:46announcements about their uh ambitious
0:49plans when it comes to AI. Looks like we
0:51have a price war on our hands because
0:52both of them started talking about
0:53affordability for what they can actually
0:55produce. Uh what's your take as to these
0:57two kind of trying to make a comeback
0:59and and take over OpenAI and Anthropic?
1:03>> Uh so
1:06ooh speechless now I I was trying to
1:08think of the best way to kind of present
1:10this. I I really am believing that uh we
1:16have to start separating
1:18everything going on in AI and the models
1:21into two categories. I don't think
1:23anyone anymore can catch up to anthropic
1:27and open AAI and what their plans are.
1:29Now, let me just kind of put that in
1:31into context. I've spent a lot more time
1:34on consumer agents. I've spent a lot
1:35more time on what these models are
1:38trying to do and what everyone's kind of
1:40going for. They're all trying to get
1:42some kind of revenue, all of them. So,
1:44when Meta talks about the cloud
1:46ambitions, they need some revenue coming
1:49in the door now. And if your business is
1:52going to be consumer agents,
1:54advertising, stuff like that and
1:56personal AI assistance where which is
1:58where I am now putting officially Meta,
2:01Apple, Google, Amazon. Now again, not
2:06completely, but they all have that part
2:08of the puzzle. Amazon, Google, and
2:12Microsoft obviously not only have the
2:13personal assistant, the co-pilot side,
2:16they also have the cloud business.
2:18Obviously, we have cloud business now
2:20where we're renting out compute for
2:22SpaceX. So, I think rather than get into
2:25the model side, which again, these
2:28models are just going to be
2:29commoditized. Uh it's what what you're
2:32aiming to get your revenues from. And
2:34clearly, OpenAI and Anthropic are in a
2:37war uh with the enterprise side. And
2:40then everyone else to me is kind of
2:42making sure that they're also spending
2:44in other areas where they need this. And
2:46obviously SpaceX,
2:48you know, Tesla eventually, they've got
2:50different ambitions for how they're
2:52going to use AI. So I think I I'm not
2:54really looking at the price wars as
2:56anything more that number one, the media
2:58is just kind of getting into this, oh,
3:00the token index is going down. It means
3:02we're going to have problems. I think
3:03everyone's just reexamining where their
3:05ROIC is going to come from, and they're
3:07strategically moving their decision-m
3:09towards that process.
3:10>> I love when we uh maybe don't disagree,
3:13but have slightly different takes on
3:14this. Um, in building Sylvia, I think
3:17you and I have talked in the last couple
3:18of weeks about, you know, the mandate
3:20from heaven 18 months ago. Everyone use
3:22AI. Now all of a sudden people start
3:24looking at the uh token prices or the
3:27the compute, you know, cost on a monthly
3:29basis was skyhigh. They all start
3:31cutting that. But a lot of what people
3:33have been doing both, you know, what
3:34we've been doing at Sylvia, but also in
3:36other companies I've talked with, they
3:38essentially were changing the
3:39architecture of how they use the models.
3:41So it wasn't they were changing the
3:42model. It was just hey we don't want to
3:44ping the model for if you ask what the
3:45date is or you know that type of stuff.
3:47Right now I think that we've kind of
3:49graduated past that and what we're
3:51actively looking at and I think a lot of
3:52other people are looking at is how do
3:54you actually start to route queries to
3:56different models based on the complexity
3:59or the compute need of that query. And
4:02so this feels like an area where you're
4:04going to see a significant drop off in
4:06the compute cost of these companies in
4:08terms of what they're spending. And the
4:10reason why that becomes interesting is
4:12then it opens up this whole open- source
4:13thing. And so to me, the Facebook and
4:17XAI announcements around cost is
4:19basically them trying to position
4:21themselves to say, "Hey, maybe you don't
4:22need to go to Chinese open source or
4:24look for American open source. What if
4:25you could use one of these closed source
4:27models, but do it at a much cheaper
4:29rate?" It's almost like they're
4:30acknowledging the fact that all of these
4:31companies are now becoming very
4:33costconscious on this. I don't know if
4:35it'll work. Like I don't know if they'll
4:36actually drive more adoption, but it
4:39seems odd that two different companies
4:41who probably are not sharing their plans
4:44with each other in the same week come
4:45out and they're leading with, hey, this
4:47is a cost-effective way to get super
4:49intelligence, you know, via the model,
4:51right?
4:52>> Yeah. So, I I I don't agree with you, so
4:54we'll keep going. Um I the part I agree
4:57with is the fact that and and I I put
5:00together a visual because a bunch of
5:02people reached out and asked me the
5:04question on from a variety of angles on
5:06this point and then I had some people
5:08that I've known a long time in the tech
5:10side that are all bearish on this going
5:11oh everyone's going to move to cheaper
5:13model and I'm like that's we got to
5:15start to understand where we are. So I'm
5:17going to give it to you in a different
5:18way. You've probably not heard it this
5:19way. Um, and you're looking at it from
5:21the angle of Sylvia, which I get. In my
5:24opinion, having managed hundreds of
5:26people over the years. Um, you bring in
5:29a resume and you don't need to hire the
5:33most expensive people throughout your
5:35firm for every job. Jobs are now finally
5:37getting delegated to the models that
5:39make sense. Meaning 100 100 uh IQ might
5:42be enough for something if it does if
5:45you don't need it quickly. So, it's
5:47getting back to the way I look at
5:48aggregate payrolls, which is hours
5:50worked, then you've got hourly earnings.
5:54So, and how many people you're
5:56employing, that is the aggregate
5:58payroll. And I think every workforce is
6:00figuring out
6:02these models at the very high end,
6:04they're super high IQ, they're very
6:06cheap. And Dylan Patel gave an interview
6:09that I listened to today on Wisdom Tree.
6:12It's a great podcast. I highly
6:13recommend. He talked about his spend.
6:15So, this is Dylan Patel from Semi
6:17analysis. Very sophisticated. His spend
6:20went from $100,000 allin for his firm as
6:25of uh December last year.
6:29It's now 11 million ARS as he said,
6:33annualized revenue spend. Now, what he
6:36talked about as the importance of that
6:38is he's not changing it. He's not
6:40looking to get it done. He said in some
6:42cases because the productivity is
6:44expanding he's able to generate more
6:46revenues. I think every business is
6:48going to be different. I think for the
6:50enterprises that had no usage for them
6:54whatsoever they're figuring out where
6:56they should be making the spend and in
6:58some ca in every case they will be
7:00having workflows that are using cheaper
7:02models open source possibly. then you're
7:05going to have more expensive high IQ
7:07making decisions where they're very
7:09effective and very cost effective
7:11because they do the speed in onetenth or
7:141/100th the time that those workflows
7:16do. So it just depends on where it is.
7:19The end result is going to be a mixture
7:20of all these different models.
7:21Completely agree we were always going to
7:23end up there. But I think one of the
7:25things that's been challenging is that
7:26since opus 4.5 the model intelligence
7:30for coding agents just keeps getting
7:31better and better. But the deployment
7:34from enterprises just started and so
7:37they spent the first six months actually
7:39learning how much the spend would be.
7:41Now they're going to start going through
7:43a slight readjustment. Talente is
7:46obviously out there promoting the fact
7:47that you don't you know they're going
7:49another angle. Oh, you don't want to
7:50have this. You don't want to be exposed.
7:52They're giving all the negatives to
7:54having your own models. I think we're in
7:56the price discovery phase for
7:57everything. The models are going to keep
7:59getting more efficient. They're going to
8:00keep getting cheaper. they're going to
8:01keep getting smarter. I think there's
8:03going to be a mixture of both, but I
8:04don't think this is going to affect the
8:06overall spend. I think adoption and
8:08usage is going up significantly
8:10dramatically each day. Yeah. And and
8:12maybe as a um a nuance to it, I actually
8:17think that the number of tokens consumed
8:19will continue to grow. So, I agree with
8:21that. But I think that what companies
8:23are trying to figure out, at least what
8:24we're trying to figure out, is how do
8:25you consume more tokens but spend less
8:27money? And I think what we're starting
8:30to see is that, you know, if you go hit
8:324.7 or 4.8 or, you know, whatever, uh,
8:35and someone's asking what is the date,
8:37not only is there a cost associated with
8:39it, which obviously is a like a pain
8:41point for the company, but there's a a
8:43big latency. And so it's actually like a
8:45bad experience for the user versus if
8:48you can, you know, kind of hit a
8:50lightning fast open source model, make
8:51sure it's accurate, etc., then it
8:53becomes uh somewhat interesting. Um, but
8:56but some companies don't care, right?
8:58They don't care about the cost. Maybe
8:59Dylan Patellis is like, "Look, I'll
9:01spend $50 million because every dollar
9:03that I spend, I'm getting back $10 in
9:05revenue." Then, you know, it kind of
9:06doesn't matter, right?
9:07>> Yeah. And that and that's the point is I
9:10the the way this weeds out the bad
9:12companies. And I I think his exact quote
9:14was if you're not spending more money
9:17every year, you're going out of
9:18business. Like if you're trying to to
9:20optimize based on I don't want to spend
9:23X amount of dollars and you're cutting
9:24back on your AI spend, it means you're
9:27going out of business. And I happen to
9:29agree with that. Meaning your budget for
9:31AI should be expanding every single
9:33year. No questions asked. It should
9:35absolutely be going up. And that is the
9:38only way you're going to survive as a
9:39business. That makes companies that are
9:41startups have a huge advantage. And
9:42that's why semi analysis is very
9:44different than say the se you know they
9:46cover data centers they cover semi an
9:49they cover semiconductors they cover the
9:50entire AI buildout. If you're Goldman
9:52Sachs and Morgan Stanley you've got a
9:54huge payroll you have a huge thing
9:56you're going to have a different
9:57approach than a company that's just
9:58starting was only spending $100,000 a
10:00year on AI in December.
10:03>> Yeah, that makes sense. Um what about
10:04Apple? Apple obviously made the Siri
10:06announcement um kind of an AI Siri uh
10:09integration and then they also announced
10:10that they're going to have to increase
10:12prices because of uh memory. What do you
10:14think's happening with that business?
10:16I actually so
10:20last week uh because I've been spending
10:23so much time on Meta and because I've I
10:25so I listen to more podcasts uh with
10:28Meta involved. I listened to one with
10:30Alex Cananteritz uh this week he had on
10:33the CTO from Meta and I'll be covering
10:36that in the YouTube. Whenever there's a
10:38story that's going around that I'm
10:40trying to figure out what's behind it.
10:41They're getting into cloud. They're
10:43saying the agentic world is is not at
10:45where they thought it would be. Well,
10:47then I got to go look up. So, I start
10:49doing a ton of research on consumer
10:51agents. And this is the way I want to
10:52break it down for people as I get into
10:54the Apple discussion. So far, all we've
10:56done is coding agents. And I want people
10:58to understand that that is basically the
11:00language of AI. So we're using more
11:04coding agents and that agentic side
11:06where the workflows are getting longer,
11:08they're getting more complex, they need
11:10some kind of memory.
11:12We've we've seen token usage go up
11:14exponentially. Consumer agents are going
11:17to make it have another move higher. And
11:20in listening to Meta multiple times and
11:24people talk about it, the complexity
11:26with consumer agents and what has to go
11:29on, the commerce side, the hey, book me
11:32a trip to Italy. Here's what I care
11:34about. That's far more complicated than
11:36build me this spreadsheet, build me this
11:38model. You have to do a lot more things.
11:40You have to visit a lot more sites. It
11:42takes a lot more compute. So the step
11:45function of compute is going to go
11:47exponentially when these guys can solve
11:49this. The reason the Apple thing is
11:51interesting is the same thing with Meta
11:53because Google, Amazon, Amazon has
11:56Alexa, Google has personal u
11:58intelligence. Apple which is trying to
12:00get Siri to work and then Meta which is
12:03trying to monetize Facebook, Instagram,
12:06everything they have in some way with
12:07advertisements but also with AI combined
12:09in as well as all these places having
12:12some kind of hardware. Again, Alexa, uh
12:15the phone, you go through it, everyone
12:17has hardware out of this group. So the
12:19question is think about the how
12:21difficult it is that wow opus 4.8 8 4
12:24point. We've got Fable 5, but yet Siri
12:26still doesn't work. Alexa still doesn't
12:28work. How's that possible? Well, the
12:31complexity of what they're trying to
12:32solve is impossible. I was in um my
12:36Tesla using Grock again this week. And
12:38Grock in a Tesla is phenomenal. The
12:41latency is is is very good. Why can't
12:44they do this with Siri? Well, the car is
12:47on all the time. I'm just driving in it.
12:49If you had your phone open all the time,
12:51you could converse with chat GPT. It
12:54would work. So, I think the most
12:55interesting thing with Apple is the take
12:57that I normally have. It sold off and
13:00made all-time highs when they announced
13:01Siri personal intelligence and they
13:03showed what it was able to do. You had
13:05some people saying it was horrible. You
13:07had a lot of people saying it was
13:09shockingly good. Then they had the
13:11memory price side. Okay, memory prices
13:14are going higher. We're going to have to
13:15raise prices. The stock got hit both of
13:18those days. On the Siri day, it made
13:19all-time highs and sold off. And then it
13:21sold off on the memory side, leaving it
13:23down 10 more than 10% off the highs. And
13:27then with no news, it went right back up
13:29to the highs. This is not a cheap stock.
13:32This tells me this is a bullish reaction
13:35to bad news. And I like looking into
13:38things. I think the market and
13:40particularly the very smart people are
13:42starting to look ahead to the next 6
13:44months. So, this is the first warning
13:45I'm going to give to people. Uh, the
13:48infrastructure trade was a great
13:49six-month trade. I still think you're
13:51going to make a lot of money being along
13:53the receivers or the the people getting
13:55the money on the infrastructure
13:56buildout, but it's not going to be as
13:58easy. So, I'm calling the the AI
14:00midcycle slowdown is over when it comes
14:03to terms of I think now everyone's a
14:05little bit too negative on the AI
14:06buildout side and they're worried about
14:08this compute thing. Where I think this
14:10is all shifting to is two themes. One is
14:12when consumer agents come, you have to
14:15repric Apple, you have to repric Meta,
14:18you have to repric these stocks because
14:19the ROIC is going to come through. And I
14:21think people are getting more bullish on
14:23these companies with the reality that
14:24that's coming. The second angle is this
14:27is where you start getting into the
14:28crypto side because of the agentic
14:30commerce. They're linked together. And
14:32so I'm looking towards, you know, a year
14:34from now, the major story being how did
14:36we miss Apple? I'm not convinced in meta
14:39yet because it doesn't have the same
14:40technical picture, but I am going to
14:42watch the hyperscalers much more closely
14:44because I think we're getting into a
14:45side where the surprise could be that
14:47we're moving into consumer agents and
14:49away from the coding agents.
14:51>> What do you do with Grock in your Tesla?
14:54>> This was real really more
14:56conversational. So, I wanted in fact the
14:58irony is I wanted to have conversation
15:00about exactly what I just talked about.
15:02So, the way that I I use it when I'm
15:04driving, especially in Maine, for say an
15:06hour and I've just listened to a
15:08podcast, I will pause the podcast. I
15:10will go to Grock and I will now have a
15:12conversation to expand that
15:13conversation. It's much better in the
15:16car than it is walking around with
15:18chatt. And the reason is because it's on
15:21all the time and the signal is much
15:23better inside the car. So, Grock is more
15:26humanlike for me having the
15:28conversation. And so again, this thing
15:30of having a conversation with a really
15:32smart person, it's literally, hey, I
15:34want to talk about Apple and Meta and
15:36consumer agents. And I'll just give you
15:37one, you know, one factoid that came out
15:40of that. Goldman Sachs had a report out
15:42this year saying consumer agents will
15:44consume about 30 times
15:4730 times what coding agents will consume
15:50from a compute basis. This is why there
15:53is no solution to compute. If you think
15:56there is excess capacity of compute, you
15:58are absolutely wrong.
16:00>> Ladies and gentlemen, I'm a software
16:02guy, but every once in a while, I come
16:03across a piece of hardware that I just
16:05simply can't live without. And that's
16:06plaid for me. Now, now this whole thing
16:08is basically a hedge against me losing
16:11my memory because when I have all these
16:12conversations, I talk to founders,
16:14investors, all kinds of people every
16:16single day. There's three things that I
16:17always want to take away from the
16:18conversation. What I learned, what are
16:20the next steps, action items, and then
16:22what notes do I need to remember for
16:23some period in the future? You can even
16:25mark important moments during the
16:26discussion so that you can quickly
16:27reference them later. Whether it's a
16:29founder meeting, an investor call, a
16:30podcast interview, or maybe even just
16:32want to sit down and talk to your
16:34spouse. I could instantly go back and
16:35forth and find key insights, decisions,
16:37action items that I talked about in that
16:39conversation. Over time, every
16:41conversation all of a sudden becomes an
16:42asset instead of a forgotten moment. And
16:44in a world where information is
16:46abundant, the ability to retain and
16:47leverage knowledge is a very real
16:49competitive advantage. That's why Plaude
16:51Note Pro caught my attention recently.
16:52It's a credit card sized notetaker.
16:54Slim, portable, perfectly integrated
16:56with my phone. And the part that I love
16:57about it is that it automatically
16:59captures conversations. It turns it into
17:00board ready summaries. You can have
17:02structured action items and it does
17:04flawless transcription. It is really
17:06magical and you should try it out. So go
17:07check them out. This hardware has
17:09completely changed my life and I think
17:10that you'll end up finding it very
17:12valuable. So if you want to use Plaude
17:13and get the same value out of it that
17:15I've gotten out of it, go check them out
17:16at plaude.ai/pmp.
17:19You can go to plaude.ai/p ai/pom and get
17:2115% off if you use the code pump or just
17:24go click on the link in the description.
17:25So go to plaud.ai/pmp
17:28today. Now when we look at the compute
17:31issue, obviously that's one of the big
17:32things. People saw uh Meta's
17:34announcement, they start getting worried
17:35about that. Um we continue to see
17:38volatility in a lot of these names. Uh
17:41Bloom Energy, now there's a bunch of
17:43these short reports that are starting to
17:44come out. It almost feels like the
17:46people who are pessimistic, they are
17:48just waiting to pick their shot and they
17:50think that all this stuff is overvalued.
17:52Can short sellers make money in a market
17:55like this? Like how do you think about
17:57the other side? Right? You're bullish on
17:59this. I'm bullish on this. Many people
18:00are buying these names. What about the
18:02other side? Like do they have any uh
18:05credible critiques that you think uh
18:07people should pay attention to?
18:09>> Well, of course. Listen, let's go back
18:11to me um selling out of Micron but still
18:14believing the memory trade is going to
18:16continue. Um in fact, one of the things
18:18just to give people a a preview. Um I
18:23part of the reason I I sold out of
18:25Micron was because the speculation
18:26everywhere was starting to become
18:28evident. Um and again it it was
18:32leverage.
18:33So when I see leverage forming and
18:36obvious in Korea and I see leverage in
18:39macro strip strategies and I see
18:41leverage in fundamental long short
18:43strategies where 6 months ago they were
18:46arguing with me on memory already being
18:47expensive and now they're bragging about
18:50the fact that this has 5 years to go. I
18:52just start to reduce the risk and I
18:54think there's better places to put my
18:56money. Um, and now I have to get my
18:59brain around the fact that to buy Micron
19:01back, I'm going to have to buy it above
19:03where I sold it. There's absolutely no
19:04question. Now, I don't have a problem
19:06with that because I've been a trader my
19:07life. But I do think that there are ways
19:10Micron went up to 1300. So, if you sold
19:12it at, you know, 1250 and you bought it
19:15back at 900, you can trade, you know,
19:19bubbles, parabas, and all these things
19:21that I've talked about, you will have 30
19:23to 40% corrections. And a lot of the
19:25these names, we've had some of the
19:26largest corrections in the history of
19:28their stocks. And that's that's, you
19:30know, serious. Samsung uh over a 10-day
19:34period was down 20%. Um and that's
19:37despite
19:39making uh enough money to basically to
19:42be more than they've made in their
19:4340-year history. That's what's expected
19:45for this year. So, you can have price
19:47falls. You can short Bloom Energy. I
19:50just think people are making a mistake
19:52if they're thinking about this longer
19:53term. My general rule is as a macro
19:56person, I try to find which way the
19:58river is flowing and I'm either in that
20:01side of the river going up or I'm just
20:03not in the trade. And that's the way I
20:05thought about micron. I still think
20:06you'll see 4,000 5,000 in micron before
20:09this is done. I think it'll be harder to
20:11ride it from a,000 to 5,000 than it was
20:13to go from 100 to 500. And that's my
20:16general take is I I'm going to trade it
20:18more often. I'll get out. I'll get in
20:19and I'll look for points. Uh but I do
20:21think for people who want to short them,
20:23they just have to have a shorter time
20:24horizon.
20:26>> You mentioned Samsung. Talk a little bit
20:27about them. They reported these like
20:29blowout earnings, but they sold off.
20:31What What's going on there?
20:33>> Yeah, like I said, I mean, the numbers
20:35are astonishing. And for people who who
20:37just haven't read the story,
20:41they're they're expected to make $217
20:45billion dollar this year. I mean I with
20:48a B with a B that's how much they're
20:50expected to make not the revenues how
20:52much they're or earnings are supposed to
20:54be this year over the last 40 years they
20:57haven't made a combined $217 billion. So
21:01you have to put that in the context and
21:03realize that number one when people say
21:05this is a bubble it's not a bubble like
21:08the earnings are massive. Number two,
21:10the amount of chips they're selling and
21:12how far into the future they're going to
21:14be selling this stuff. It's just not
21:16easy to build memory capacity. So
21:19Samsung along with SKHEX and Micron have
21:22benefited significantly and they're
21:24going to continue to benefit
21:25significantly. But like I said, if you
21:27go back over the last 25 years, the the
21:30the only time they had a correction
21:33greater than 20% over a 10day period, I
21:36believe, was when the world shut down
21:37for a virus that was going to kill
21:39everyone, and it was very similar to one
21:41that happened just after Lehman
21:42Brothers. Those are the only two times
21:44in 25 years. And yet, it's still near
21:47the all-time highs, even though it's off
21:4920% and it's still a parabola. Here's
21:52the thing I would say. I saw a lot of
21:53people be very negative because one of
21:56the things that we like to do is, hey,
21:58they sold off on good news.
22:01The problem is they were already down
22:0315%
22:04off the highs when that happened. So, I
22:07I don't care about it nearly as much.
22:09What I look for in those types of sell
22:11the news things is when the stock is at
22:13all-time highs, it opens higher and then
22:15it sells off and it catches everyone and
22:17then that usually leads to a two-month
22:19or so correction. These things have been
22:21correcting now for about 4 to 6 weeks.
22:24And I say four to 6 weeks. Even though
22:26they made new all-time highs, you
22:27started to see the weakness in late May.
22:30And that's when I really started to
22:31pound the table on, okay, I really think
22:33the AI midcycle slowdown is there. And
22:35all we've done is wipe out the leverage
22:38at this point across three buckets.
22:40Systematic MA uh quant strategies have
22:43been forced to take down their leverage.
22:45We've also seen Korean investors uh
22:47forced take down. We've seen the ETFs,
22:50the two-time ETF in Hong Kong go down
22:5362%. Like we've seen enough in my
22:55opinion that we have a more balanced
22:57market. And if you looked at what SKHENX
23:00did with their ADR issuance and how
23:03overs subscribed it was on the IPO
23:05coming to the market, but then when you
23:07read that most of the buyers or a lot of
23:09the buyers were long only people, this
23:11is the way long only managers are
23:13showing their hand, which is they missed
23:15this party on the way up. to move too
23:16fast for how fast they deploy money,
23:19they're going to be underneath to buy
23:20things. So, I'm very comfortable that
23:21we've done enough damage. Maybe we make
23:23a little bit more new lows during
23:25earning season, particularly on some
23:27stocks, but the volatility is way too
23:29high in the momentum side. It's going to
23:31come down and it's going to come down
23:32through lower correlation amongst the
23:34names.
23:35>> I know as the uh AI trade is maybe
23:37gearing up to uh to get out of this
23:39midcycle slowdown, uh you've become more
23:41bullish on Bitcoin. What's going on
23:43there?
23:45Uh well, it's really I mean we talked
23:48about it, but I'll just re-emphasize uh
23:50a couple things and then I'll get into a
23:52bigger topic that I'm starting to to to
23:54say to managers and explain why I even
23:57am starting a YouTube specifically on
23:59crypto targeted for September. Uh as
24:03people get to know me, uh I still I'll
24:05always be a trader. I'll always look for
24:06the best timing on things. But when
24:08you're running a business, you want to
24:10start things at a time when people are
24:12going to start to be looking for them.
24:14Um and I think uh this is a really
24:16important story. So the first thing is I
24:18always look for technical signs and I
24:21finally got my first RSI divergence
24:24since the peak uh at the end of last
24:27year and that divergence was using
24:31basically a 4hour RSI and I look for
24:34points where the price makes new low
24:36which happened when we broke through
24:3860,000 recently but the RSI is higher
24:41than it was at the prior low. plain and
24:43simple. Now, that was the first time
24:44that we got one. So, as a trader, I go,
24:47"Well, now I can buy something when we
24:49get back above 60 and I'll just stop
24:51myself back out below the lows." That's
24:53the way a trader trades and that's the
24:54way that I've always thought. It's the
24:55way I was brought up. And I'm an Elliot
24:57wave guy and I still believe we're
24:58entering a very, very big thing. My
25:00belief is that over the course of the
25:02next year, we are near the bottom end of
25:04the range of Bitcoin. And see how I said
25:06that, near. Could we go to 50? Yeah.
25:08Could we go to 45? Yeah. Do I think
25:10we'll be over 100 a year from now? Yeah.
25:12So what do I care whether I buy
25:14something at 60 or whatever? Yes, my my
25:18percentage gain will be better, but if
25:20we're above 100, I don't care. So that's
25:21the first thing. The second thing is
25:23I've highlighted that we probably all
25:26underestimated, I know I did, the impact
25:29that the AI capital suck would have from
25:32the rest of everything. It's not just
25:34Bitcoin people, it's the hyperscalers as
25:37well. basically my benchmark arbitrage
25:39of money rotating into the space that's
25:42going the fastest. Micron went up 20
25:45times. A 20 bagger. 20 bagger. You don't
25:48get that in big companies and this is a
25:50big company. So for that to happen,
25:54you didn't need to buy Bitcoin. You
25:55didn't need to buy crypto. You didn't
25:56need to buy any of this stuff. Every
25:58single person in Silicon Valley talked
26:00about how startups, if you had AI
26:02attached to it, nobody wanted crypto. At
26:04the end of the day, people want to
26:05invest in things that are working. And
26:07so once it started to move lower, which
26:09coincided in October with the release of
26:13Opus 4.5, but it also coincided with
26:16another strong secular trend that has
26:18still been in place until last week,
26:19which was rate cuts. We had 150 basis
26:23points of rate cuts still in the market
26:25as of October or late September of last
26:28year. That peaked there. Some of it came
26:31out because of the actual cut, but then
26:33a lot of it came out because we started
26:35to build in hikes. And we have about we
26:38have a full cut plus percent of sorry
26:42hike plus a hot probability of another
26:45one before the end of the year. So
26:47here's what I'm telling you is going to
26:48happen in my mind. Um that's all going
26:51to change or at least the rate of change
26:52is going to be there. And I'm afraid of
26:54change guys. I do not think they want to
26:56hike. I did a piece on the Fed this week
26:58and made sure that everyone was
27:00highlighted that hey the Fed Walsh has
27:03spoken. He believes AI is going to be a
27:05productivity boom and that there might
27:08be a point at the beginning where it's a
27:10little inflationary before we get to
27:12deflationary, but the last thing he
27:14wants to do is go on some tight hiking
27:16cycle because of inflation. We're going
27:18to get a negative CPI print. The
27:20question is July 29th when we have the
27:22FOMC, are they going to raise rates?
27:25There's a possibility, a good
27:27possibility, it's like 35 to 40% that
27:29they will. If they don't, then I think
27:32Bitcoin will be above 70,000 when that
27:35time comes because I think people are
27:36going to start factoring in the fact
27:39that maybe they're not going at all this
27:40year before the midterms. Does he really
27:42want to hike before the midterms when he
27:44was brought in by Trump? So, I think
27:46that may be on hold for a while. And
27:48it's not that it's a big deal because it
27:50means they're not cutting rates. But
27:51since hikes are expected, it is a
27:54positive relative to expectations.
27:56Those are the ways that I'm kind of
27:58looking at it. But I want to leave one
27:59more thing for people and this gets into
28:01the bigger picture. Scott Besson gave a
28:03speech at the New York uh economic club
28:06and I posted something on X uh on Friday
28:11that Matt Hogan had put out. I do think
28:13people should read the speech. I think
28:14they should also read the op-ed from
28:16Muhammad Alan on it. This is the fact
28:19guys and we talk about it here. The
28:22administration is very focused on
28:25changing the way the US does business
28:28around the globe and part of that change
28:31is making sure that they don't lose the
28:34control of the financial system or be
28:36the leader of the financial guard rails.
28:38He specifically said that digital
28:41assets, tokenization,
28:43stable coins are all part of the
28:45administration's focus on this new
28:48economic order. You have to understand
28:50what that means. They are focused on
28:53crypto being part of the guard rails and
28:56this coincides with AI. So the reason I
28:58named it AI macro nexus, the reason I do
29:01my YouTube and it's about 90% a
29:04combination of the impact AI is having
29:06on the macro world we exist in today and
29:0810% on crypto and what that means. We're
29:11now at the point where the reason I'm
29:12going to do YouTube where it's going to
29:14be about 70% starting with crypto and
29:16then showing the difference of the macro
29:18world and AI connected to it is because
29:21we are about to enter the AI agentic
29:23commerce side which means the velocity
29:25of money is going to increase. the
29:27dormant assets that remain in the form
29:30of housing, real estate around the globe
29:32are going to be liqufied and turned into
29:35active cash over the next five years
29:37through tokenization. These are all
29:39major positives and that's the reason
29:41why I think you're at the beginning of a
29:43multi-year bull market in Bitcoin. And
29:45whether it starts in October, whether it
29:48starts in December, or whether it starts
29:49right now, I think we're at the bottom
29:52end of the range for the next year.
29:54I recently saw a statistic that showed
29:56uh stable coins are spiking on the
29:59weekends in terms of volume which makes
30:00sense. The banks are closed, right? So
30:02people want to uh access it. We also saw
30:05the open stable coin a kind of
30:07consortium that got announced. I think
30:09they have like Mastercard and Visa and
30:11Stripe. You a bunch of people all
30:13participating in this and it just feels
30:16like some of this is hey how do I get
30:18into the stable coin game? But a lot of
30:20it is the agents need money and what
30:24money are they going to use, how are
30:25they going to use this, whatever. Um, do
30:28you see anything on that front or are
30:30you hearing anything from fund managers
30:32that suggests they're now starting to
30:35move some of their funds into whether
30:37it's stable coins or bitcoin or is this
30:40more so you think we're pretty early in
30:41this reversal and you're you're starting
30:43to buy now because you know you think
30:45that's what's people are going to be
30:46doing 3 months from now. So price leaves
30:50nar leads narrative. The first thing
30:51that always happens in a bottom is you
30:53start getting short covering because
30:54people are frustrated that this has gone
30:56on. I think Bitcoin has been a funding
30:59side of the AI trade. I think um it
31:02started when software got bludgeoned and
31:04all of the software names got hit hard.
31:07Uh and Bitcoin was part of it. I would
31:09say anything built on code, you couldn't
31:11get away from the correlation. So if you
31:13wanted to hedge your semiconductors,
31:16which now had high beta, you needed to
31:18find high beta shorts. And high beta
31:19shorts ended up being Salesforce.com,
31:22Adobe, Adobe, Workday, and Bitcoin. And
31:25I think all of those things became part
31:27of the momentum trade. So it's not a
31:29coincidence that as momentum has gone
31:31down sharply that Bitcoin has a bid. So
31:34for people want to be bearish like,
31:35well, this is it just short covering.
31:37All rallies that last for a year start
31:40with short covering. every single one
31:41because it means the narrative that was
31:44existing before the AI infrastructure
31:46trade is no longer as strong as it's
31:48going to be and it's going to take a
31:50while for that releveraging to happen
31:51and as we go through earnings like I
31:53said I think you're going to have
31:54disappointments before every single name
31:57was working. I don't think that's going
31:58to be the case anymore in the AI trade.
32:00I also don't think you can get five
32:02baggers and six baggers over the course
32:03of the next year. I think a lot of these
32:05things are priced well. Dylan Patel
32:06talked about it today and he said you're
32:08going to see some surprises on the CPU
32:10side and the surprise is going to be
32:11that we've kind of gone a little too far
32:13on the optics side. We've gone a little
32:14too far. You're gonna he talked about
32:16this. I think what all that means is
32:18that that place is priced in a way where
32:21if you can get 40% over the next year,
32:24that's great. I think Bitcoin can do
32:26more than 40% based on the fact that
32:28just to get back to all-time highs,
32:30you're talking about a double. and
32:32getting back to all-time highs to me,
32:34we'll be left with the narrative that I
32:35just talked about. So, the first stage
32:37is short covering. The second stage is
32:39for the momentum to shift once we get
32:41above the 200 day moving average, which
32:43I've said that is the critical line. We
32:45are still way below it right now. We
32:47still I think it's around 76 77,000. So,
32:50we still have quite a ways. We have 20%
32:52before we get up there. So, this will be
32:54a short covering rally. We'll see how it
32:56goes. And like I talked about and for
32:58people who who heard this before and
33:00still reach out to me, are we still
33:02watching Doge? Yes, I'm still watching
33:04Doge for the energy side of crypto. But
33:07I do think there will be uh surprising
33:10news on what you said over the course of
33:12the year where when people start to
33:14realize that the 40name index that I've
33:17created which goes through eight
33:20separate verticals or sectors is a
33:23direct overlay with Bitcoin that Bitcoin
33:25just represents the ecosystem and I
33:27think the ecosystem is going to benefit
33:29from the stable from the agentic side
33:31and that's going to flow to Bitcoin as
33:32well.
33:33Michael Sailor. The first Bitcoin sale
33:36was like a dip in the, you know, dip
33:38your toe in the water. The second one
33:40was like a cannonball in the deep end.
33:42The first time it sold off. The second
33:44time he sold off a little bit, but it
33:46almost seemed like the market was like,
33:47"Ah, whatever." And they really didn't
33:49care. So, you know, maybe he should get
33:50some kudos for the way that he did this.
33:53Um, and it's minimal impact on the
33:55market with the big sale. But do you
33:57take or read into that sale or or the
34:00response from the market? Uh, a year
34:03from now, this stuff is going to be
34:04noise. Um, I'm actually a little
34:07embarrassed to be associated with
34:09something where we have to even talk
34:11about this ridiculous thing. I I just
34:14the Michael Sailor thing to me, um, he's
34:16even become like people are blaming him
34:18for why Bitcoin's not going higher.
34:21Bitcoin, as we talked about, um, in
34:24every asset you have corrections. I
34:27don't get into four-year cycles. I don't
34:28get into any of this stuff, but
34:31the reality is what he has done and what
34:34he has been able to do. I'm more focused
34:36on the quantum side of crypto and the
34:39solutions that are coming out and some
34:40of the themes about should we just
34:43basically deal with these tokens that
34:45are dormant and should we the man owns
34:49an enormous amount of supply of an asset
34:52that I believe the world is going to
34:53acknowledge is a real asset for
34:56collateral and as we get into
34:57tokenization and we start getting into
34:59the dormant asset side I think people
35:01will start to understand the value of
35:03collateral again like they'll start to
35:04understand what he has always talked
35:06about. So I never bought into this
35:08thing. I do agree that the most
35:10important thing is that it's actually
35:12higher than when he made his biggest
35:13sale. That would be a sign that if you
35:16would have said to people, hey, what
35:17would happen if a week after he makes
35:19his biggest sale the unthinkable that he
35:22said he would never do publicly and even
35:25though this is for a different reason,
35:27so it doesn't count, but he did do it,
35:29what would happen? Everyone would have
35:30said the thing would be down big. So the
35:32fact that it's higher I think is a Apple
35:35type news item where it happened and
35:38once you don't sell off after something
35:40like that it actually is more of a
35:42positive than a negative. So I don't
35:44think this will ever be talked about
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38:02When you look at the market right now,
38:04um, we've talked a lot about AI, talked
38:06a lot about crypto. Are there are there
38:08any areas that you're really excited
38:10about or that uh you're you're starting
38:12to deploy capital into that don't fall
38:14into AI and crypto? or do you think
38:15those are like the two games in town?
38:18>> So, I am looking into the insurance
38:19side. I'm looking into the regional bank
38:21side. I've talked a lot about Eli Liy,
38:23which is going to remain
38:26Eli Liy. I I don't think even if it were
38:29to go up, even if it were a threebagger
38:31from here, I wouldn't get out of it. I I
38:33have so much belief in what is happening
38:36on the health side and the compounding
38:38side of curing diseases and I want to be
38:41associated with the group that's already
38:44done sovereign AI. Uh, and I want to
38:47make sure people hear that all this talk
38:48you're hearing from people, well, you
38:50should own your own models, you should
38:51go through this. Remember what Anthony
38:53and I talked about with Lily Pod and the
38:56fact that on their campus they have a
38:58thousand black wells. They have their
39:01own sovereign AI. They are using that
39:05with biotech companies. So, I'm going to
39:07keep saying that healthc care is a big
39:09thing. On my video last week, I did go
39:11through some of the insurance names
39:13which are now starting to see. I think
39:14we're actually going into how important
39:17agents are for companies that were
39:20already using AI and that means a lot of
39:23the banks are going to do well and
39:25you've seen a lot of the banks make new
39:27all-time highs. The regional banks have
39:29made new all-time highs. regional banks
39:31fit into a very interesting thing which
39:33is it's very hard to buy a bank and take
39:36them private um because of all the
39:38regulations which means takeovers with
39:41inside the regional banks for midsize
39:43banks is probably going to happen
39:45because as people put AI into their
39:48model they can go buy companies and then
39:50infuse them with AI and get rid of
39:52headcount so it becomes very accretive
39:54immediately so I think you're going to
39:55see a lot of consolidation with inside
39:57the financials and I think the
39:59healthcare side and the insurance side
40:01has already been spending money on this
40:02and already advanced on it, they're
40:04going to start seeing the benefits over
40:05the next year.
40:06>> What about outside of the public
40:08markets? Are there anything in terms of
40:10commodities or anything else that you're
40:11starting to uh to get excited about?
40:13>> Well, if I'm right about um
40:16Bitcoin, then silver is going to do well
40:18and gold's going to do well. It's not
40:20going to be a resurgence of the um of
40:22the debasement trade,
40:25but it is going to be a hey, these
40:28things were impacted more than we
40:29thought from AI sucking the dollars out
40:32of everything. And then secondly, the
40:35reality that we have hikes built in. So
40:39the run it hot thing turned into, hey,
40:41we don't have any need for this. I I
40:44wrote about this. I talked about it. We
40:46still have a budget deficit that's
40:49massive. And the reason that's important
40:53is I don't think the Fed can raise
40:54rates. So, one other angle is they raise
40:56rates in July.
40:59This could be a Michael Sailor type
41:00moment as well because if they raise
41:02rates, in my opinion, without any
41:04question, it'll be a oneanddone and
41:06it'll be a Fred a Fed credibility hike.
41:09The long end's going to come down,
41:10meaning yields are going to come down
41:12and that would be the reason that they'd
41:13be okay doing it. Every single macro
41:15person I talk to when we've had good
41:17conversations on this believes this. So
41:19do I. That if they were to tighten in a
41:21surprising manner in July as a
41:23credibility hike, the long end would
41:25come down. I think at that point people
41:28would treat it as a one and done and for
41:30the end of the year we have another 50%
41:34of a hike built in. And so it could
41:36actually act as a positive if it's a
41:38dovish hike where he says we did this
41:41for the credibility side. we are
41:42committed to this but we think now we're
41:44in a position where we can sit back and
41:46wait. If that were going to happen which
41:48I think is going to happen uh in terms
41:50of if they did it they're going to do
41:51that way uh I think that would be
41:53positive as well. So I actually think
41:55gold silver uh and bitcoin that
41:58regrouping the debasement trade will
42:00start to resur uh see a bottoming and a
42:03rise as well.
42:05Now, sometimes people will listen to
42:07this and they should take away signal
42:10from the things we talk about. There's
42:12also times where they should take away
42:13signal for the things we don't talk
42:15about. And
42:17the Iran war has been on again, off
42:20again, on again, off again, off for
42:22real. No, not anymore. And uh this past
42:24week, we got uh I think whiplash, maybe
42:28it was on and off twice. I don't, and
42:32this sounds crazy, but I don't think
42:33that the investment community really
42:35cares anymore about the Iran war's
42:37impact on their investments. Obviously,
42:40there may be difference in terms of the
42:42people who live in Iran or the the
42:43military components, the geopolitics,
42:45all that, but like from an investor
42:46standpoint, I have not heard someone
42:49talk about Iran impacting anything in
42:52their portfolio in the last two weeks.
42:54Maybe you have, but what's your take
42:55there?
42:57Um, no. No one's really talked about it.
43:00And I I don't think this is uh
43:04I don't think this is people just not
43:06being aware of it or not being uh I
43:10don't know scared of the fact that it
43:12started and I think the reality is oil
43:15doesn't budge and even though we had a r
43:18you know we we jumped
43:21I if if oil and this is the beauty of
43:24markets we heard the doom and gloomer
43:26say it should go to 200
43:29let's haircut that and Hey, it should
43:30have gone to 150.
43:32The problem is it's still despite
43:35everything and it's not just the front
43:38part of the curve, it's the back end.
43:41There are no issues. The thing that I
43:44take from this is is plain and simple
43:47there. We were supposed to have gas
43:49prices surging. Now, again, crack
43:52spreads are wide. And the reason crack
43:53spreads are wide and so people
43:54understand what crack spreads are, it's
43:56the differential between the gas price
43:58and the oil price. the conversion from
44:00oil into gas that is still high. So the
44:04ability of having gasoline is the issue
44:08that is still still there but oil as a
44:11whole is not going higher and I think
44:12everyone would treat it as a short-term
44:14thing. They don't think this is going to
44:15not end. Uh meaning this is a flare up.
44:18I think everyone had built into their
44:20expectations this. So, I'll just say to
44:22everyone here, unless we see surprising
44:25movements in oil where it actually goes
44:27higher, it still acts in the market at
44:30something that has a positive negative.
44:32And I hate to say this, it acts like
44:34there's a glut. It literally acts like
44:36when this ends, the price is going to
44:38head back to 50. So, I'm not saying that
44:41is going to happen. I'm just saying the
44:42way the market looks and the way it
44:43acts, it just doesn't act like something
44:46that's going to go significantly higher.
44:47So I think we're stuck between 65 and
44:5080. And unless we get above 80 and the
44:54Iran situation is worsening where
44:56there's no ships going through Hormuz, I
44:58just don't think it matters for the
44:59markets.
45:00>> The last thing I want to talk about for
45:02a couple minutes is um I don't know if
45:03you saw the 1X robotic hand demo.
45:07>> No.
45:08>> So um maybe the best way I can describe
45:11this is the hand has been the hardest
45:13part of robotics for a very long time.
45:1530, 40 years people have been working on
45:16this and most people what they
45:18essentially have done is they have used
45:19robotic components to build the hand.
45:21But if you think of your hand, it is all
45:24operated off of tendons. And so 1X
45:27essentially has created a synthetic
45:30version of a tendon-based robotic hand.
45:33And in this demo, you know, they can do
45:35very kind of ampidextrious, you know,
45:37type uh type things or very dextterous
45:39type things. But more importantly is it
45:41can screw on a light bulb. It can pick a
45:45cherry without, you know, going and
45:46smashing it or it can do things that I
45:48think a lot of people when they saw saw
45:50this demo, the video got millions of
45:51views online or like whoa, hold on a
45:54second here. This is a significant leap
45:57forward.
45:58My takeaway from seeing this is that
46:01everything that you and I are excited
46:03about from an AI perspective, I would be
46:05shocked if that robotic hand was not
46:09somehow either ideiated or developed
46:12using AI. And so we now are getting the
46:15like, you know, second boost to this
46:17robotic stuff where people are having
46:19this super intelligent software to help
46:22them make these advancements. And it
46:24wouldn't shock me at all if we start to
46:25see some pretty crazy stuff happen where
46:27these robots start to be as humanlike as
46:30maybe we all feared that they could, you
46:31know, eventually get to.
46:33>> Mhm. So, I'm going to And this is what
46:36this is a Finnish company, right? Or a
46:38Norwegian company.
46:41>> I think the I think that it is made in
46:43the United States. Uh but I think the
46:45founders might be from there. I I can't
46:47remember. There's something that is like
46:48a Nordic relationship. Uh but I don't
46:50think that the company is based. I think
46:52it's actually a US company, but maybe
46:54the founders are from there.
46:55>> So, I I'm going to I agree with what you
46:57said and and so people hear this. Um,
47:00I'll start with a statement and then I'm
47:02going to work a little backwards towards
47:03why this isn't, you know, why ROIC for
47:06for hyperscalers is not like fracking in
47:09oil. Um, in in in this context. Uh, so
47:13first of all, Anony's point is really
47:16important, which I agree with. We're
47:18underestimating that as we get to 100,
47:21we're above 140 IQ now. As we get above
47:24160, and as we get above 200, we will be
47:27solving problems that we haven't been
47:28able to solve. We'll take angles that
47:30will allow us to produce these things.
47:33And then once the humanoids are
47:36available, then we also don't have to do
47:38the physical work of testing it out.
47:40They can build them for us. So the hand
47:43is critical because it's probably the
47:45worst thing we have for actually doing
47:47intricate work that would be necessary
47:50for robots to be making robots or robots
47:52to be solving the problem. So if the
47:54intelligence is there, we do need the
47:56hands to be able to have them go. And
47:58this was on a moonshots where uh Dave
48:01Blondon basically admitted that he
48:03underestimated how quickly we will get
48:05billions of robots because he he saw at
48:09Tesla, oh my gosh, the robots will be
48:12building the robots at some point. This
48:14is the compounding side that goes with
48:15Opus 4.5 leads to 4.6 which leads to 4.7
48:18and this whole thing of recursive
48:20self-improvement. Now the reason I want
48:22to bring this back is to oil. I was
48:25asked by someone this week that isn't
48:27the ROIC risk for the hyperscalers the
48:29same as what happened with uh fracking
48:32with the reason being and a a bunch of
48:34people on VEX have posted this. They've
48:36scared the hell out of some of my
48:37subscribers. They've reached out. Here's
48:39the reality guys. This is not
48:41intelligence is not the same as oil.
48:43Like I don't I don't know how to like
48:44make that clear. Oil is oil.
48:47Intelligence is everything. Meaning the
48:51price of tokens going down, the usage
48:53goes higher. Oil usage only grows in a
48:57linear fashion related to nominal GDP.
49:00It is a physical constraint to get more
49:02of it. The problem is for intelligence,
49:06it's the usage is growing exponentially.
49:09Oil never grows exponentially
49:11demand-wise. The only thing that slows
49:13down AI is the data centers. It's the
49:17gas turbines. It's the physical stuff
49:19which cannot be made quickly. So to
49:22Anony's point and for all of you that
49:23are not understanding how the
49:25compounding will go towards solving the
49:27energy problem and why I always have one
49:29eye on crude because eventually crude
49:31will go to zero. It will go to zero
49:34because we will solve energy at the
49:36fision fusion. Name anything you want.
49:38We will come up with so many solutions
49:41going forward. And so when you listen to
49:43Daario and you listen to Sam Alman and
49:45you listen to Greg Brockman, they're all
49:47saying the same thing, which is the
49:49intelligence in getting us to a point
49:50where math is being solved. Once math is
49:53being solved, then cancer can be solved.
49:55Then energy can be solved. These are all
49:57the science problems. These are all the
49:59physics problems of getting us to the
50:01point where everything can compound. So,
50:03in the same way we're talking about the
50:04compounding of intelligence and models
50:06for coding, which is language, we're
50:09about to get into it with consumer
50:10agents, and we're also about to get it
50:12into science. And that's where the
50:14robotics thing in the humanoids gets so
50:16important for your investment decision-m
50:18and it also feeds in why the financial
50:20guardrails are necessary to deal with
50:21this type of speed.
50:23>> I think that's a great place for us to
50:24end it. What um what are you going to
50:27cover in your YouTube video this Sunday?
50:29I'm I'm going to harp on the fact uh
50:32number one that the AM midcycle slowdown
50:34is over in the face that I think the
50:35sentiment has dropped off enough the
50:37volatility's gone high enough that we
50:39are in the bottom end of the
50:41consolidation and you should not should
50:43now be thinking instead of is this going
50:45lower now you should be thinking with
50:47the AI trade which I couldn't say when
50:49Micron was at 1300 but at 950 will it be
50:53higher 6 months from now yes it will
50:55once we get through two earning cycle it
50:57will be higher Uh so the sixmon look
51:00forward from this you're at the bottom
51:02end of the range not the top end of the
51:03range. Second thing is how important
51:05consumer agents are to compute. For all
51:08of you scared about compute thinking
51:10there's a chance there's excess compute.
51:12If you guys want to hammer me in the
51:14future I will say this again. We have
51:16insatiable demand for compute. We do not
51:19have enough supply. And the argument I
51:21just gave you, compute demand is
51:23exponential because intelligence usage
51:25goes up dramatically with every model
51:28advancement, but the physical supply is
51:30what constrains us. So this is a supply
51:33demand mismatch and I'm going to go
51:34through why that means you should be
51:35invested there. And then thirdly, I will
51:38go in more detail on this Bessin speech
51:40and I will focus again on the importance
51:42of Bitcoin because I do believe that a
51:44year from now, we will be talking about
51:46crypto in the same way that we're
51:47talking about memory. And I'm going to
51:49finalize it with what you said. You
51:52asked me the question, are fundamental
51:54people starting to No, they are not
51:55focused on this right now. Number one,
51:57because they're still focused on AI,
51:59both from a loss perspective and what's
52:01happened the last four weeks, but also
52:03from what should we be buying down here.
52:05Once they recognize and get through the
52:07Fed and they get through all of the
52:09changes, they are going to need to focus
52:10on crypto and the financial guardrails
52:12of the future. And six months from now
52:14as we go into next year, crypto will be
52:17the memory for next year.
52:19>> Man, that got me hyped up. Journey, I'll
52:21be watching.
52:23We'll talk again next week.

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