GPT-5 Barely Improved on GPT-4 — Transcript

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1. 0:00What's an NYC? What's your perspective
2. 0:01on the upcoming AI revolution? What
3. 0:03would you say to someone starting their
4. 0:05career
5. 0:06um when all experts predict AI will
6. 0:08replace them in 4 years?
7. 0:10I can't imagine an AI won't uh be better
8. 0:12at cold calling than the average
9. 0:13salesperson in about three. I know
10. 0:15there's you're not dead, keep working,
11. 0:16of course. Uh but what would you say to
12. 0:18your child being born in this
13. 0:19increasingly strange and unrecognizable
14. 0:21world? How can we adapt and overcome our
15. 0:23replacement?
16. 0:24Um
17. 0:27So, in the short-term, there are more
18. 0:28jobs in the AI research companies than
19. 0:30in the non-AI companies in terms of job
20. 0:32growth. So, if we're just looking at
21. 0:33facts, that's what it is right now. So,
22. 0:35that's kind of interesting um as a
23. 0:36counterpoint. Um beyond that for my own
24. 0:40right son that's coming, um
25. 0:42I'm going to do the only thing I can do,
26. 0:43which is I'm going to equip him with as
27. 0:44many skills as I possibly can so he can
28. 0:45navigate the world to get what he wants
29. 0:46out of it. Um and not just out of the
30. 0:49world, but just out of life.
31. 0:51And so, I I would probably give the
32. 0:52exact same advice to myself and I'd give
33. 0:54the same advice to you, which is that
34. 0:55like um
35. 0:57keep learning
36. 0:59more than anything else.
37. 1:00Like
38. 1:02you will never be worse off from knowing
39. 1:03more.
40. 1:06You will never be
41. 1:08less capable in a given situation
42. 1:11by being more capable.
43. 1:14And so, if we just So, in game theory,
44. 1:16the most flexible player wins, right?
45. 1:18Same thing with the Darwin, right? It's
46. 1:20the It's the adaptability, which is the
47. 1:21thing that allows you to win. And so,
48. 1:23adaptability comes from being able to
49. 1:24succeed in different in conditions and
50. 1:26different environments. And so, part of
51. 1:28being able to succeed in different
52. 1:29conditions and environments is your
53. 1:30ability to learn, which is a function of
54. 1:31intelligence, which is how quickly can
55. 1:33you change your behavior.
56. 1:34And so, if you see this big threat and
57. 1:37you let's say you're a cold caller, then
58. 1:38yeah, maybe you might have want to learn
59. 1:39other skills along the way.
60. 1:41Um
61. 1:42that makes sense. Um but the idea that
62. 1:46there's not going to be any jobs like in
63. 1:47the near-term, I don't know if I you
64. 1:49know, the data suggests, you know, the
65. 1:51opposite of that. And like I said
66. 1:52earlier, the the biggest frontier
67. 1:54companies have, you know, 5,000-plus
68. 1:55employees, and so like it seems like
69. 1:56they still need some humans. Um and I
70. 1:58would say that this is probably a
71. 2:00relatively contrarian take and
72. 2:01especially as a company that uses a lot
73. 2:02of AI.
74. 2:03Um I have felt and maybe you agree with
75. 2:05me, but like AI feels like it has
76. 2:08hit some sort of asymptote where it
77. 2:10takes a huge amount of energy to make
78. 2:11very small and incremental improvements.
79. 2:13I can't really tell you a gigantic
80. 2:15difference between like
81. 2:16you know, I think when GPT went from
82. 2:18three to four, that was a monster
83. 2:19difference.
84. 2:20From four to five, it was significantly
85. 2:22smaller difference in my opinion and
86. 2:24there's some models right now that we
87. 2:25run that are still four cuz we think
88. 2:26it's better and faster and it just like
89. 2:28it actually sounds less AI sloppy.
90. 2:30And so
91. 2:31I think uh there's a French AI guy who
92. 2:34talks about this, but basically the way
93. 2:35that we're currently training AI has
94. 2:37diminishing returns and until we can get
95. 2:38AI to train in the real world with
96. 2:40real-time feedback loops, just training
97. 2:42on more data is not actually the
98. 2:43solution to getting it to be smarter
99. 2:44because I think all of us have seen the
100. 2:46AI slop of the internet um
101. 2:49and been like, well, this isn't that
102. 2:50good. Uh and so
103. 2:52there's there's some room, right? Um
104. 2:55that being said, I'll tell you more
105. 2:57importantly probably what not to do,
106. 2:59which is to don't hide
107. 3:02don't bury your head in the sand and
108. 3:03hope for it all to go away. Don't live
109. 3:05in fear.
110. 3:07Ask yourself
111. 3:08what can I do to best equip myself to
112. 3:10succeed in an environment where the
113. 3:12conditions change? And that's going to
114. 3:14be learning skills and that has not
115. 3:15changed. And it would just be what
116. 3:17skills are you learning, which will
117. 3:18probably be AI adjacent skills so you
118. 3:20can learn it. Just like you know, years
119. 3:21ago when you know, Word and Excel and
120. 3:25Zoom and these tools came in the
121. 3:27beginning, it was like, oh yeah, I'm
122. 3:29proficient with Word. No one really says
123. 3:30that anymore cuz it's assumed and I
124. 3:32think to the same degree, learning how
125. 3:34to use AI right now is a newer skill,
126. 3:36but in time it will be something that
127. 3:38everyone is doing because they'll have
128. 3:39lowered the barrier to getting into it.
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