Gold and Silver SPs, Event Mangas, PRB01 God Pack and More - Your Questions Answered - One Piece TCG — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:00Hello and welcome to One Piece of
2. 0:02Insight. In today's video, I will be
3. 0:04answering your questions that you left
4. 0:06in the comments. Uh we're going to be
5. 0:08talking about the gold and silver SSPs.
6. 0:11We're going to be talking about manga
7. 0:12events. We're going to be talking about
8. 0:13the poll rates for the PRBO1 god pack
9. 0:16and lots more. I really enjoy getting
10. 0:18your questions in the comments and I
11. 0:19don't always get to dedicate as much
12. 0:20time as I would like to an answer. So,
13. 0:22this is why I wanted to do more Q&A
14. 0:24style videos. So with that, you know,
15. 0:26this is intended to be interesting,
16. 0:27informative, but not financial advice.
17. 0:30Let's jump right in. I wanted to start
18. 0:31with what I thought was a really, really
19. 0:33interesting comment that was left by Mr.
20. 0:35Thomas. He wrote, "In speculative
21. 0:37assets, narrative is everything." And
22. 0:40this could not be more true. This was,
23. 0:42of course, super relevant to what we
24. 0:43were talking about with the mangas and
25. 0:44the SPS, right? the question of how much
26. 0:47does it matter that the mangas are the
27. 0:49top chase even if they're not the rarest
28. 0:51cards? How much does it matter that this
29. 0:53is like the most authentic contribution
30. 0:56of Oda to the card game? Right? That's
31. 0:58really about narrative and that can
32. 1:00contribute a ton to value. And so I
33. 1:02found myself thinking about this when I
34. 1:04read the following question from Impel
35. 1:06Down Collection. You think Santa Chopper
36. 1:08and Poncho Pikachu? Both wearing
37. 1:10costumes, both pretty much the cute
38. 1:12mascots of each franchise, right? like,
39. 1:14will the Santa Chopper become the Poncho
40. 1:17Pikachu of One Piece? And my first
41. 1:19thought was, no. You know, Chopper isn't
42. 1:22Pikachu. The Poncho Pikachu are really
43. 1:24special. Those are incredibly expensive
44. 1:26cards. This card has been super hyped
45. 1:28and is now $300. Like, of course,
46. 1:30they're not going to be the same. But
47. 1:32then I found myself thinking, narrative
48. 1:34is everything, right? Like if enough
49. 1:36people are asking this question then
50. 1:39like maybe [laughter] you know like
51. 1:42ultimately markets are determined by
52. 1:44what people believe right so if you can
53. 1:46convince enough people in a market that
54. 1:49something is true then it basically
55. 1:51becomes reality right people will be
56. 1:53willing to pay for those things so
57. 1:55people might think that the chopper is
58. 1:56overpriced myself included at $300
59. 1:59because it hasn't been that price for
60. 2:01long but like 3 years from now it could
61. 2:03be $2,000 and if people are used to
62. 2:06seeing it at that price, they may not
63. 2:07think it's crazy, right? Because that's
64. 2:09just what they're used to and that's
65. 2:11sort of what the narrative about the
66. 2:12card is. So, I think this is like the
67. 2:14most important lesson to keep in mind
68. 2:16for all of this, which is that like
69. 2:18there's nothing inherent about the
70. 2:20prices for things, right? There's also
71. 2:22nothing inherent about demand. Things
72. 2:24like narrative mean that demand can
73. 2:27shift on a dime. You know, I've been
74. 2:28talking to a bunch of people who
75. 2:30provide, you know, what I think is a
76. 2:31very valid comment that I spend a lot of
77. 2:33time talking about supply and I don't
78. 2:35spend a lot of time talking about
79. 2:36demand. Why is that? And my answer is
80. 2:39that a couple things. Number one, it's
81. 2:41really really difficult to measure
82. 2:43demand whereas supply is something that
83. 2:45I can do some type of measurement for.
84. 2:47But also like demand is constantly
85. 2:49changing, right? And how do you evaluate
86. 2:51demand? How do you predict what demand
87. 2:53is going to be in the future? Like I can
88. 2:55give you my aesthetic preferences. I can
89. 2:57tell you what I think is logical, but
90. 2:59that doesn't mean that that's correct,
91. 3:01nobody can tell you what the future of
92. 3:02demand is going to be. Whereas supply on
93. 3:05the other hand, although we're
94. 3:06estimating what the supply is, is
95. 3:08somewhat fixed, right? And so that is a
96. 3:10measure that we can then use to ask the
97. 3:13question, well, how many people need to
98. 3:15buy into this narrative for this price
99. 3:17to hold, for it to increase, for it to
100. 3:19decrease, right? And that's why I spend
101. 3:21so much time talking about supply and
102. 3:22why I think it's like one of the most
103. 3:24useful things that I can provide to the
104. 3:26community. Okay, so let's move on to our
105. 3:28next question. Carbadium 4619 asks, "I'm
106. 3:31pretty sure you've covered the gold and
107. 3:32silver luffy from Opia 11 in the past,
108. 3:34but would you mind including them in a
109. 3:35future analysis video?" I wouldn't mind.
110. 3:37So, let's do it right now. Okay, so
111. 3:40let's start by talking about the
112. 3:41population of the gold and silver Luffy.
113. 3:42So the combined PSA and BGS population
114. 3:46for the silver Luffy is 1627 and for the
115. 3:49gold is 1679. So the first thing I want
116. 3:52to talk about here and my number one
117. 3:54takeaway from this is that this suggests
118. 3:56to me that in all likelihood the pull
119. 3:58rates for the silver and the gold are
120. 3:59exactly the same. So they should have
121. 4:02the same supply of both the gold and the
122. 4:04silver. Which raises another question.
123. 4:06If the gold is currently around $12,000
124. 4:09and the silver is currently around
125. 4:11$9,000. Now, these are rough price
126. 4:13estimates because honestly these sell so
127. 4:14infrequently it's really hard to know
128. 4:16what the exact market price is. But, you
129. 4:18know, bear with me. Like, why is there
130. 4:20so much of a price difference there,
131. 4:22right? So, again, getting back to the
132. 4:25question of narrative, there's nothing
133. 4:26that I've seen in writing from Bandai
134. 4:28that says that these are gold and
135. 4:30silver. These could be gold and platinum
136. 4:33or they could be gold and diamond.
137. 4:36There's like no inherent reason why gold
138. 4:38should be more expensive than silver.
139. 4:41It's just narrative, right? If I only
140. 4:43referred to them as gold and diamond
141. 4:45moving forward and everyone else did the
142. 4:47same, maybe the diamond one would be
143. 4:49more expensive than the silver one,
144. 4:50right? So recognizing that that is
145. 4:53really just sort of like an arbitrary
146. 4:54narrative thing that can shift. In my
147. 4:56view, these should be the same price or
148. 4:58they should at least be extremely
149. 5:00similar in price. Now, obviously, maybe
150. 5:01there's slightly stronger demand for one
151. 5:03than the other based on aesthetics. I
152. 5:06think they're both beautiful, honestly,
153. 5:07but I would keep that in mind. In my
154. 5:09opinion, they should be about the same
155. 5:11price. And so my overall estimate for
156. 5:13population is around 3,400 each with a
157. 5:16total of 6,800 across both of them. So
158. 5:19how does that stack up against the other
159. 5:20grills that we've looked at? Well,
160. 5:22obviously the Red Mangal Luffy is the
161. 5:24rarest at 1,200 approximately. Then you
162. 5:26have the Gold Roger with approximately
163. 5:281,600. And then this one lands right
164. 5:30smack in the middle with around 3,400
165. 5:33each. Now, the complicating factor here
166. 5:35though is that unlike these other cards,
167. 5:38when you're trying to count the
168. 5:39population, are you counting both of
169. 5:41them individually or are you counting
170. 5:42the two of them together? Because if you
171. 5:44think of there being like 3400*
172. 5:482, you know, 6,800, then that would make
173. 5:51it a larger population than even the
174. 5:52ODIG at 5,400, right? There is no comp
175. 5:55for the ODIG. There is no real
176. 5:57alternative. I mean, yes, there is the
177. 6:00other one from OP5 that has the same art
178. 6:01on it, but it's not the same thing like
179. 6:03in a different color. There's no ODA
180. 6:05signature on it, right? So, the question
181. 6:07is, do people just want one or the other
182. 6:10and they have a preference? Are there
183. 6:11people who are trying to collect both?
184. 6:13Does that increase demand? So, this is
185. 6:14an instance where population doesn't
186. 6:16tell us quite as much as it normally
187. 6:18would. I mean, of course, this is also
188. 6:20true for the year 5 Luffy, right?
189. 6:21Because you have the reprint in PRBO1.
190. 6:24Uh we're going to talk about that in a
191. 6:25little while. But obviously if you
192. 6:26include that then this becomes an even
193. 6:29bigger population than the ODIG and
194. 6:31probably about the same population as
195. 6:33these two together. So where do we land
196. 6:36on this? So I think the first question
197. 6:39obviously is population. This is like a
198. 6:40medium scarcity card for grails. So I
199. 6:43think it certainly belongs in the grail
200. 6:45conversation in terms of how it stacks
201. 6:47up with these other cards. If somebody
202. 6:49said to me, I'm going to give you one of
203. 6:50these cards. You can never sell it, but
204. 6:52you can just have it for your
205. 6:53collection. Which do you want? Price
206. 6:55doesn't matter. I think I would take the
207. 6:56ODIG. Honestly, I think it's probably
208. 6:59like the most significant card that
209. 7:01we've had in the One Piece TCG. It's
210. 7:03like original art by the creator of One
211. 7:05Piece. It has his signature on it.
212. 7:07Obviously, it's a beautiful looking
213. 7:09card. It's from an iconic set. All of
214. 7:11those things, right? So, to me, that's
215. 7:13probably the most iconic card, but it's
216. 7:15also like the least rare card on this
217. 7:17list, right? So that doesn't mean that
218. 7:18it should necessarily be the most
219. 7:20expensive, you know, from a purely
220. 7:22aesthetic perspective. If I don't think
221. 7:24about like the significance of the
222. 7:26cards, like I actually do think that
223. 7:28these are the best looking cards that
224. 7:29I've seen in the One Piece TCG. I know
225. 7:32I've mentioned this before, but I
226. 7:33actually got into the TCG because I was
227. 7:35really interested in Japanese
228. 7:36printmaking, like the historical
229. 7:38printmaking. And when I saw these cards,
230. 7:41my first thought was like, "Oh my god,
231. 7:42this is like the evolution of like the
232. 7:46worldleading print making capabilities
233. 7:48that they have in Japan, and this is
234. 7:50what the newest form of that is. I like
235. 7:52have to have this because of how
236. 7:54incredible it is." And the gold and
237. 7:56silver SSPs to me are like the pinnacle
238. 7:58of what they've been able to accomplish
239. 8:00from a printmaking quality perspective.
240. 8:02So, for that reason, I find them to be
241. 8:04aesthetically spectacular, aesthetically
242. 8:06better than any of the other cards on
243. 8:08this list. But honestly, those are just
244. 8:09my opinions, right? People are going to
245. 8:11have wildly different opinions, which is
246. 8:13totally fair. So, I guess what I would
247. 8:15say is that I think anywhere sort of in
248. 8:18this mess of grail pricing is probably
249. 8:21fair. And the only thing that I feel
250. 8:23particularly passionate about is that
251. 8:25both the silver and the gold, or the
252. 8:27gold and the diamond, if you will,
253. 8:28should be pretty evenly priced. So, what
254. 8:30about the other SSBs? Number one, based
255. 8:33on what we've seen from the population
256. 8:34reports, I don't see any reason to think
257. 8:37that the pull rates are significantly
258. 8:40different for these or that there's any
259. 8:43reason to believe that, you know,
260. 8:44there's a higher population of either
261. 8:46the gold or the silvers. From what I've
262. 8:48seen, it looks like they track with the
263. 8:50OP11 SSPs. But honestly, like with
264. 8:53things that are really, really low
265. 8:55challenging pull rates, it's really,
266. 8:57really hard to know. I'll be honest,
267. 8:59when I first did an assessment of the
268. 9:01pull rates for these, um I assumed that
269. 9:04the pull rates were around 1 in6 each,
270. 9:06about 1 in eight across both of them.
271. 9:09But as we've seen more graded card data
272. 9:11come out, it's become clear that this is
273. 9:14a larger population than I originally
274. 9:16thought. And so, you know, with a
275. 9:18population estimate of around 3,400 for
276. 9:20the gold and silver Luffy compared to an
277. 9:23estimate of around 30,000 cases open for
278. 9:25Opia 11, that gives us a slightly less
279. 9:27than 1 in 10 case pull rate. Um, so I
280. 9:31guess at this point I would probably
281. 9:33revise my estimate down to like 1 in 8
282. 9:35to 1 in 12 somewhere in there for each
283. 9:38of them. Meaning that they're like 1 in4
284. 9:40to 1 in six for either of them. So,
285. 9:42they're not quite as rare as I
286. 9:43originally thought. Um, but they are
287. 9:45still pretty rare and they're definitely
288. 9:47harder to pull than a standard manga.
289. 9:50So, in terms of how I would evaluate
290. 9:51these, I actually think that all three
291. 9:53of these are pretty similar in terms of
292. 9:55character popularity. I think
293. 9:57artistically, the Teach is the most
294. 9:58interesting. I will also say, too, that
295. 10:00of these three sets, I think the Teach
296. 10:02probably has the lowest population. Not
297. 10:05by like a lot, but I think there's
298. 10:06probably a slightly lower population
299. 10:08than the OP11. I don't know what the
300. 10:10population of OP14 is, but I'm guessing
301. 10:12it's probably pretty similar to OP11.
302. 10:14And then we have OP13, which I am
303. 10:18guessing has an absolutely massive
304. 10:19population. So, while I don't have a
305. 10:22great estimate of what that population
306. 10:23is, I assume that that's the largest.
307. 10:25So, I would probably value the Teach the
308. 10:27most highly and the Shanks the lowest.
309. 10:30Um, but again, that's mostly just based
310. 10:31on population. Overall though, I do like
311. 10:34all of these cards. And in terms of
312. 10:35pricing, I think that they should be in
313. 10:37a similar category to where the mangas
314. 10:39are. They're a little bit rarer than the
315. 10:40mangas. You know, a lot of people feel
316. 10:42passionately that the mangas are super
317. 10:45special because of their place in the
318. 10:46game, which I think is totally fine. So,
319. 10:48I think there's an argument for these to
320. 10:49be less expensive than the mangas in
321. 10:52general, but given their rarity, that
322. 10:54should pull them up a little bit. So, I
323. 10:55think anything that is around the
324. 10:57ballpark of what the mangas for these
325. 10:59characters would cost to me feels fair
326. 11:01for these. But the thing that I feel
327. 11:03most passionately about these is that
328. 11:04the silver and the gold should be
329. 11:05basically similarly priced. Okay, so
330. 11:07let's move on to our next question. Kith
331. 11:09Jabir 757 asks, "Can you do a similar
332. 11:12video on gold and silver SSPs?" Yes, I
333. 11:15can. And I just did. Uh, event mangas,
334. 11:18cards, and treasure rares. I'm not going
335. 11:20to talk about treasure rares again
336. 11:21because people have heard me rant about
337. 11:22treasure rares enough. So, I'm not going
338. 11:24to make you go through that again. But,
339. 11:25I haven't talked about event mangas very
340. 11:27much. So, let's go ahead and do that.
341. 11:29So, the first thing to know about the
342. 11:30event mangas is that when I reviewed the
343. 11:32case openings for all of these different
344. 11:35sets, every event manga that I looked at
345. 11:38was treated as an altar, as in they had
346. 11:40the same pull rates as the altars, and
347. 11:42they seem to take an altar slot in the
348. 11:44case when it was opened. The only
349. 11:47exception to this was PRBO2, which for
350. 11:49whatever reason seem to take an SP slot.
351. 11:52So even though it doesn't say SP on the
352. 11:54cards, I actually consider the PRBO2 uh
353. 11:57event mangas to be SPS. Whereas all the
354. 12:00other event mangas I consider to be
355. 12:02regular altars. So if we look at the
356. 12:04population for these for OP 10, 11, and
357. 12:0712, the population is going to be the
358. 12:09same as the altars for those sets. So
359. 12:1122,000 for 10, 27,500 for 11, and 25,000
360. 12:16for 12. Whereas PBO2, it's going to be
361. 12:18the same population for the SPS at
362. 12:21around 6,000. Now, again, these are
363. 12:23estimates and particularly for these
364. 12:24later sets, I have less confidence in my
365. 12:26ability to estimate the population
366. 12:28because the graded card data is just
367. 12:30going to be less accurate. Okay, so
368. 12:31moving on to the even later manga
369. 12:33events, we have OP13, which is going to
370. 12:36have by far the largest population. I
371. 12:38don't know what it is. my estimate here
372. 12:40of 34,500 was assuming that OP13 had the
373. 12:44same population as OP9, but given the
374. 12:46reprint, uh, I think it's probably going
375. 12:48to be much larger than that. So, I would
376. 12:50expect this to be even higher. OP14, I
377. 12:52just guessed, had a similar population
378. 12:54to OP11. Same thing with OP 15. Same
379. 12:57thing with OP16. So, I don't really know
380. 12:59the population on these. Uh, but
381. 13:01historically, what we've seen is that
382. 13:02the population seemed to be similar for
383. 13:04mainline sets uh, in between the
384. 13:06anniversary sets. So, I wouldn't be
385. 13:08shocked if this was around OP11 or if it
386. 13:11was like a little bit bigger than that.
387. 13:13I think the big thing to take away is
388. 13:14that all of these event mangas have a
389. 13:17pretty high population compared to the
390. 13:19things that we've been looking at. Much
391. 13:20higher than mangas, much higher than
392. 13:23SPS, much higher than leaders even in
393. 13:25most cases. But at the same time, I
394. 13:28think they're super super desirable
395. 13:30cards. So, how does this all add up? So,
396. 13:33the average alt art event manga costs
397. 13:37$127 and has a population of 27,200,
398. 13:41while the average SP event has an
399. 13:44average price of $58, which is mostly
400. 13:47being pulled up by Gum Gum Giant, and an
401. 13:49average population of around 6,000. And
402. 13:51then that compares to your normal SPS
403. 13:53with an average of 2.85 85 and 8,000 and
404. 13:56your mangas with an average of 1,850 and
405. 14:00a population of 6,650.
406. 14:03So, what do we make of this? So, the
407. 14:06first thing I wanted to do here was to
408. 14:07compare the Altart event mangas to the
409. 14:10SP event mangas. And so, in order to
410. 14:12look at this in an apples to apples way,
411. 14:14I assumed that if alt arts had the same
412. 14:17rarity as PRBO2 events, like what would
413. 14:20they cost on average? And so in this
414. 14:22case, the average alt art, if it's
415. 14:25adjusted to have the same population as
416. 14:27the SP manga events, would have a cost
417. 14:30of $576 to only $58
418. 14:34to the SP mangas.
419. 14:37I actually think this is an indication
420. 14:39that people are probably sleeping on the
421. 14:41PRBO2 event mangas a little bit. You
422. 14:43know, I think given that Gum Gum Giant
423. 14:45now is like $1,000 and everything else
424. 14:47is like below $400,
425. 14:50the SP ones are not that much more
426. 14:53expensive than the Altart ones, even
427. 14:55though their population is dramatically
428. 14:58lower, more than like less than a
429. 15:00quarter of what the Altar ones are. So,
430. 15:03I personally think that the PRBO2 ones
431. 15:06are a little slept on. I'm, you know,
432. 15:08kind of hesitant to say this because I
433. 15:10don't have any of them. So, [laughter]
434. 15:13I'm pretty sure that by saying this, I'm
435. 15:14going to miss my window to get any, but
436. 15:16it's fine. In terms of whether or not I
437. 15:18think this is a fair price for the
438. 15:19altarts, I think it's like a little bit
439. 15:22hard to say. Obviously, $127
440. 15:25is way way way way more expensive uh
441. 15:29than the typical alt arts are. But at
442. 15:32the same time, I do think given the
443. 15:33quality of the art and that it's from
444. 15:35the manga, this does deserve to have a
445. 15:37premium, right? And so like one of the
446. 15:39ways to look at this question was to in
447. 15:42my opinion to the extent possible
448. 15:44compare apples to apples by looking at
449. 15:46the Gear 2 event and looking at the Gear
450. 15:482 manga. In the comments we've been
451. 15:50having conversations about like how
452. 15:52meaningful and important the mangas are
453. 15:54and OD's art is to the game. Obviously I
454. 15:57think the Gear 2 manga here is like
455. 16:00better art. It's more significant than
456. 16:02the event. As I've said, it's by far my
457. 16:04favorite manga. So, I do think there
458. 16:06should be a premium for it. But if we
459. 16:08look at the population and we look at
460. 16:09the price, there are about 8.1 times as
461. 16:13many of the event mangas as there are of
462. 16:16the actual manga. Uh, and the actual
463. 16:19manga is 12 times as expensive as the
464. 16:22event manga. So, like I said, I do think
465. 16:24there should be a premium for the actual
466. 16:27manga. And so I actually think, you
467. 16:29know, 12x for something that has a
468. 16:31population that's eight times bigger uh
469. 16:34is totally fair. That strikes me as
470. 16:36super reasonable. So I think what I
471. 16:38would say is that like some of the event
472. 16:39mangas might be a little bit expensive,
473. 16:42but the best event mangas I think are
474. 16:44probably the best alt arts that we've
475. 16:46seen. Whether you consider them to be
476. 16:48better than treasure rares or whatever,
477. 16:50you know, is obviously personal
478. 16:52preference. I like the event mangas more
479. 16:54obviously. So, I guess what I would say
480. 16:56in summary is like I don't think that
481. 16:57people are necessarily sleeping on the
482. 16:59Altart event mangas. I do think that the
483. 17:01SP event mangas are probably a little
484. 17:03bit slept on. It's really hard to say
485. 17:05because I'm trying to estimate demand,
486. 17:07but I just think these are such
487. 17:08desirable cards. It doesn't strike me as
488. 17:10ridiculous at their current prices.
489. 17:12Okay, so next question. Austin Bay asks,
490. 17:15"I would have liked to hear your
491. 17:17thoughts. Estimated population on the
492. 17:18PRBO1 godpack mangas." Now, I've talked
493. 17:21about this before, but given that we've
494. 17:23seen sort of population updates to the
495. 17:25graded card data, I wanted to revisit it
496. 17:27and see if there were any changes to the
497. 17:29estimates and to the poll rates. So, for
498. 17:31those who don't remember, in PRB1, it
499. 17:33was possible to open a pack that had a
500. 17:36reprint of every single manga that had
501. 17:38been printed to date, including the Nami
502. 17:41manga from PRBO1, and that it was pretty
503. 17:43rare. You know, if we look at the PSA
504. 17:45and the BGS population, we have a total
505. 17:47population for the Luffy, uh, which I
506. 17:50used as my benchmark of 1,073. I then
507. 17:54basically doubled that to account for an
508. 17:56expectation that about half of the cards
509. 17:57have been graded, and that would give us
510. 17:59an estimated total population of 2,150.
511. 18:03Now, when I first did the analysis, it
512. 18:05looked like the population was around 1
513. 18:07in 12. Now that we've seen more cards
514. 18:10graded, it looks like the pull rates are
515. 18:12around 1 in 10. uh you know, I don't
516. 18:14really know which one of those are
517. 18:15accurate, right? Because it depends on
518. 18:17what percentage of the cards have
519. 18:19actually been graded. There's no really
520. 18:21good way to tell. So, I would just say,
521. 18:23you know, in the ballpark of one and 10,
522. 18:25maybe a little bit less, a little bit
523. 18:27more. You know, it's still pretty hard
524. 18:29to pull, but it's not nearly as crazy to
525. 18:31pull as like the Roger manga or like the
526. 18:34Red Luffy. Same thing with the Odaig. I
527. 18:37would put those two in the bucket as
528. 18:38sort of like the easiest cards to pull
529. 18:40for cards that are really, really
530. 18:42special. In terms of their value, this
531. 18:44is one that I really just don't have any
532. 18:46idea on. Honestly, certainly they should
533. 18:49be less than the originals of the
534. 18:51mangas, but how much less really I think
535. 18:53is just going to depend on how much
536. 18:56additional demand there is for the art
537. 18:58that isn't being met by the original
538. 19:01one. The adding complication here too is
539. 19:04that because all these mangas were
540. 19:05printed in multiple different languages,
541. 19:07if you don't want to pay for the
542. 19:08original English, like maybe you buy the
543. 19:09Japanese, maybe you buy the Korean one,
544. 19:11right? And then of course, all of those
545. 19:13are going to have reprints as well. So,
546. 19:16honestly, like I would just be giving
547. 19:18you a guess at how the valuation stacks
548. 19:20up on these. I'm just going to have to
549. 19:22trust the market on this one because I
550. 19:23don't really have anything else to go
551. 19:24off of. So, moving on to the next
552. 19:26question. Uh, Ramy phase 6161 asks, "How
553. 19:29would you rate double packs as an
554. 19:31investment compared to other sealed
555. 19:32product as they're not seated and
556. 19:34therefore carry less risk than buying a
557. 19:36random booster from TCG player?" Okay,
558. 19:38so as those of you know, I'm not in this
559. 19:40for investing, but what I will say is
560. 19:43number one, a word of caution. While
561. 19:46yes, you can weigh, you know, raw packs,
562. 19:49you can weigh sleeved packs, people in
563. 19:51the comments have been telling me that
564. 19:52you can also weigh like illustration
565. 19:55boxes and some of these bigger uh sets
566. 19:58that have sealed products. So, while I
567. 20:00haven't tried it, it certainly is
568. 20:02possible that you can weigh these double
569. 20:03packs. I imagine that's probably harder
570. 20:05to do than like a sleeved booster, but I
571. 20:07don't think it's impossible. But the
572. 20:09reason I wanted to answer this question
573. 20:11is one of the interesting things that's
574. 20:13happened in Pokemon is that as booster
575. 20:14boxes and now even ETBs have gotten so
576. 20:18expensive uh and as there are more and
577. 20:20more sets that would require you to take
578. 20:22up more and more space to have one of
579. 20:24each of them. Booster bundles have
580. 20:26become sort of an alternative thing that
581. 20:29you could put on a shelf to basically
582. 20:31have the art represented from each of
583. 20:32the sets. And there's a universe where I
584. 20:34could see double packs becoming that for
585. 20:36One Piece, right? where if you can't
586. 20:38afford to have a booster box from every
587. 20:40set, but you want to have some
588. 20:41representation, a double pack could sort
589. 20:44of fit that niche as a sealed product.
590. 20:46So, while I don't think that these are
591. 20:48probably going to be the best performing
592. 20:50of sealed products, either as something
593. 20:52to open or as something that's likely to
594. 20:54appreciate, I do think it's interesting
595. 20:56to think that there might be a market
596. 20:58for these in the future as a less
597. 21:00expensive way to showcase the art from
598. 21:02each of the different sets. So again,
599. 21:04like I don't do investment, so from an
600. 21:06investment perspective, I don't know how
601. 21:08this is going to go, but it is an
602. 21:09interesting thing that I've noticed
603. 21:10about the Pokémon market that I think
604. 21:12could potentially transfer over to the
605. 21:14One Piece market as well. Moving on to
606. 21:15our last question for the day. Jamflex
607. 21:18asks, "So you've poured over the data.
608. 21:20Why do you not purchase mangas or PSA
609. 21:2210s yourself?" Uh, so this is obviously
610. 21:24a pretty loaded question. Let's start
611. 21:26with the mangas because that's the
612. 21:28simpler answer. So number one, mangas
613. 21:31are very, very expensive. I would
614. 21:32personally rather have a wider variety
615. 21:34of cards that I like rather than just
616. 21:36have a handful of cards that are really,
617. 21:38really expensive. This is just my
618. 21:40personal collecting aesthetic. It's not
619. 21:42right or wrong. Lots of people prefer
620. 21:45doing the opposite way, and I totally
621. 21:46understand why they do. And there are
622. 21:48definitely some days when I wish that I
623. 21:49was more that way, but you know, I
624. 21:53wouldn't be able to buy things very
625. 21:55often if I was buying cards that
626. 21:57expensive. So instead, I prefer to
627. 21:59collect things that are lower price. So,
628. 22:01that's certainly a part of it. I will
629. 22:03also say that, you know, having just
630. 22:04done a video comparing mangas and SPs
631. 22:06and saying that I thought that mangas
632. 22:08were kind of expensive compared to SPS,
633. 22:11uh, given what they were, I will say
634. 22:13that like I've spent a lot of time in
635. 22:14the comments chatting with people and
636. 22:16like hearing their passion about the
637. 22:17mangas and the arguments about their
638. 22:19significance and, you know, that nothing
639. 22:22is ever going to trump Oda's art when it
640. 22:23comes to One Piece. And I certainly hear
641. 22:25all that. So, I think having talked to
642. 22:28all these people, I would now say that I
643. 22:29think mangas are a little bit less uh
644. 22:32overrated than I thought they were in
645. 22:34the first place. But I think that there
646. 22:36probably is still a little bit too much
647. 22:38of a premium being placed on them uh for
648. 22:40some of the other reasons we discussed
649. 22:42in that video. And so, you know, I tend
650. 22:44to like lowerc cost items that I see as
651. 22:47having a lot of upside. If an item
652. 22:50already has that upside baked into the
653. 22:52price because people know that it's
654. 22:54special, then that appeals to me less.
655. 22:56Both because it's more expensive, but
656. 22:58also I see that as being less
657. 22:59opportunity for discovery. I really like
658. 23:02novelty. You know, my favorite cards are
659. 23:04like the $2 to$3 illustration cards or
660. 23:07promo cards that are like super super
661. 23:09fun but maybe flew under the radar and
662. 23:12then someday people are going to realize
663. 23:13how awesome they are and then maybe
664. 23:15they'll triple or 10x their price,
665. 23:17right? Like that's just what's fun for
666. 23:19me. So that's the main reason I don't
667. 23:21collect mangas. I do think they're
668. 23:22awesome. If they were cheaper, I would
669. 23:24buy them. I love buying event mangas. I
670. 23:27also, since I didn't talk about it in
671. 23:28the video, I love buying the Dawn cards
672. 23:30with the manga panels on them. They're
673. 23:32so much cheaper than the mangas. And in
674. 23:35some cases, I actually prefer that you
675. 23:36can like see the entire panel. I was
676. 23:38saying that the OP4 Vivv Dawn is like
677. 23:41one of my favorite cards because I
678. 23:42absolutely love that part of the story
679. 23:45and I think the illustration is just
680. 23:47like so emotional and that card is 85
681. 23:49cents. Granted, there's like a ton of
682. 23:51them out there obviously, but like this
683. 23:53is my point that like price doesn't
684. 23:55necessarily dictate like the emotional
685. 23:57impact, which is why while I do
686. 23:59understand the importance of the mangas,
687. 24:00I'm not necessarily willing to pay for
688. 24:02them. PSA 10's much more of a loaded
689. 24:05question uh for me. So, I don't own any
690. 24:08PSA One Piece products and I won't buy
691. 24:10any PSA one piece products. There's a
692. 24:13few reasons for that. Part of it is that
693. 24:14I don't like the way PSA does business.
694. 24:16I feel like they're trying to squeeze
695. 24:18every cent they can out of the hobby.
696. 24:20Um, and I'm not appreciative of that.
697. 24:22So, I don't want to spend my money with
698. 24:24them. The other reason is that, you
699. 24:26know, as many people who've watched this
700. 24:28channel know, I've done an analysis
701. 24:30where I looked at basically how hard it
702. 24:31is to get a grade uh at each different
703. 24:35grader and use that as a way to assess
704. 24:37what I think are the most premium
705. 24:39products. And PSA 10s from a difficulty
706. 24:42to achieve perspective are not really
707. 24:44premium products. They're only premium
708. 24:45products because collectors charge us
709. 24:47more money than the other graders do,
710. 24:50right? So, to me, that's not like a
711. 24:52reason why I would want to collect PSA
712. 24:54to know that I needed to pay more on the
713. 24:56front end and pay more on the back end
714. 24:58to get the same quality product as
715. 25:00everywhere else. I personally would
716. 25:01rather have a CGC Pristine 10, which is
717. 25:04much much harder to get than a PSA 10,
718. 25:06or a BGS10, which is much much harder to
719. 25:08get than a PSA 10 than a PSA 10. I
720. 25:11understand why people buy PSA. I
721. 25:13understand that it's more liquid. I
722. 25:15personally don't care that much about
723. 25:16that. But the last thing I will say on
724. 25:18this is and that I think a lot of people
725. 25:20don't necessarily realize is that like
726. 25:22when you buy PSA slabs, you are
727. 25:24basically paying for the existing market
728. 25:26advantage that PSA has, right? Their
729. 25:29reputational and their brand advantage.
730. 25:31That may last, but it may not last. You
731. 25:35know, if you look on a long enough
732. 25:37timeline of economics, basically every
733. 25:39market advantage erodess over time,
734. 25:41right? And so I'm asking myself the
735. 25:44question, do I want to buy high on PSA
736. 25:47or would I rather buy low on like CGC
737. 25:51knowing that I'm getting a card that I
738. 25:53want and I'm getting it in a condition
739. 25:55that I know is hard to achieve and I'm
740. 25:57paying way way way way less than I would
741. 26:00for a PSA 10, right? So because I'm a
742. 26:03collector primarily and I'm not planning
743. 26:05on selling these, at least not
744. 26:06immediately, the fact that it's cheaper
745. 26:09is super relevant to me. I get the card
746. 26:11I want for less money, but also I'm
747. 26:13buying low because if the market
748. 26:15advantage ever erodess, if there's ever
749. 26:17an equalization, then that card that was
750. 26:20$500 in a PSA 10 and $150 in the CGC
751. 26:25Pristine 10 is now $500 for a PSA 10 and
752. 26:29$500 for a CGC pristine 10. Right? The
753. 26:32PSA card didn't go up, but the CGC card
754. 26:34did. So, to me, it's yet another
755. 26:36opportunity to buy low and hedge against
756. 26:39the market advantage. the PSA has. So
757. 26:42again, like that would be reason on its
758. 26:45own, but also independently. I just
759. 26:47don't want to support organizations that
760. 26:49I don't like their business practices
761. 26:50anymore. And so I'm choosing to vote for
762. 26:52my dollars by, you know, buying CGC
763. 26:55cards. I still haven't figured out who
764. 26:56I'm going to grade with yet because I
765. 26:57was grading with Becket before the
766. 26:59buyout. So I haven't figured out how to
767. 27:01answer that yet. But at least for now,
768. 27:03I'm only buying CGC cards. So that's all
769. 27:05I have for today. As always, I hope you
770. 27:07found this interesting. If you did,
771. 27:09please give us a like. Uh, if you found
772. 27:11something that you disagreed with or you
773. 27:12agreed with, please comment. And of
774. 27:14course, if you haven't already, it's
775. 27:15helpful if you would subscribe. We also
776. 27:17have our TCG Player affiliate link and
777. 27:19our eBay affiliate storefront. If you're
778. 27:21interested in picking up any of these
779. 27:22cards, of course, no pressure, but if
780. 27:24you're going to buy a card anyway and
781. 27:25you want to support the channel, uh,
782. 27:27it's a great way to do that at no cost
783. 27:28to you. We'll get a small commission,
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785. 27:32as always, I appreciate your time and I
786. 27:35will see you in the next