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Global Governance in the Emerging World Order — Transcript

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0:00Today, Sino US relations in the age of
0:02multipolarity.
0:04Hey everyone, I'm Jason Smith,
0:05originally from sunny California, now
0:07living in beautiful Beijing. Joining us
0:08today is Anar Tangen, a senior fellow at
0:11the Center for International Governance,
0:13Innovation, and a Beijing based
0:15commentator on geopolitics and the
0:17global economy. Welcome back to the
0:19Bridge to China.
0:21>> It is good to be here, Jason. Good to
0:23see you as always.
0:25>> Yeah, it is it's a delight to have
0:26someone of your caliber on the show. Um
0:29I I want to open with you know the shei
0:32visit to the United States. Given
0:34regular visits by President uh Trump and
0:37President Xi Jinping do you think that
0:39Sino US relations are normalizing
0:43following the initial uh period of
0:45Trump's trade war?
0:48>> Jason uh the um putting together Donald
0:51Trump and normal is uh very much of a
0:53stretch. I think I think uh what we have
0:56is uh China was surprised by Donald
1:00Trump during his first term. Uh they
1:02thought as a businessman as somebody
1:04very transactional that he would be
1:05somebody that they could deal with on a
1:08on a business basis. You know just say
1:10you do a I'll do B. uh they were um
1:13taken by surprise as I said uh when he
1:15became quite uh tough and started
1:18pushing this trade war
1:19re-industrialization
1:21policies that uh in anybody's estimation
1:25outside of Trump's circle did not work
1:27and I'm talking about within the United
1:29States and also in China. So uh and and
1:32you can see that quite clearly. Uh, and
1:35what I mean by that is when Donald Trump
1:38would do something that was extremely
1:39surprising like tariffs not only on
1:42China but on everyone else in the world,
1:44China was very slow to respond. It would
1:47take weeks, sometimes more than a month
1:50um for them to respond in terms of what
1:53they thought was an appropriate
1:55response. Um, now it's almost
1:58instantaneous.
2:00Uh, they have a a clear understanding of
2:03Donald Trump. uh both through his visits
2:06and also some observing what he he's
2:09been doing. So now they have almost
2:12complete playbook almost anything that
2:14he does they have a response and it's
2:16ready and you can see it quite clearly
2:19um you know the response is literally
2:21within uh hours um not not not days
2:24weeks or a month. So uh they feel that
2:28they have a better understanding of him
2:30and I think that was quite clear during
2:32this last visit when he came to China.
2:35Um, I've never seen Donald Trump um so
2:39disciplined after a meeting. And by that
2:42I mean he and his staff, his his
2:45cabinet, which is not known for staying
2:47on message unless it's Donald Trump's
2:49the greatest thing since slightest
2:51cheese and canned beer. Um, they were
2:54extremely on message. I mean, you know,
2:56Marco Rubio was echoing his boss and
2:58he's somebody who has quite long
3:04made it clear he does not like China and
3:07sees it as a threat. So, um this time
3:10and and during that period the the
3:12speculation was that China said, "Look,
3:14you know, Donald, here's the story.
3:16We're we're not against you. Um we are
3:20not going to try to get you out or do
3:22anything like that or interfere or
3:23anything. and and if you do A, we will
3:26do B. And if you do C, we will do D. And
3:30I think that's a a level in which Donald
3:33Trump completely understands. It's
3:35extremely transactional.
3:37Um, but since he's got back to the
3:40United States, he is um uh, you know,
3:44been pressured by domestic politics. And
3:46what do I mean by that? the Epstein
3:49files uh the failure of his economic uh
3:53plan to re-industrialize the US. They've
3:55actually lost jobs in the industrial
3:58field. Um you know $6,
4:03not gasoline but diesel. Uh that is the
4:06highest it's uh been uh in more than
4:09what 20 years. In fact, it's a record
4:11high. Uh and then jobs inflation. Um
4:14there are questions about his um family
4:19business interests as well as his own. I
4:21mean he made thousands of trades. Uh and
4:24you know there's a a very clear pattern
4:27that he would make a trade and then uh a
4:30few a short time later uh there'd be
4:32some action um by his government that
4:36would somehow be connected with that
4:37trade and those trades were like
4:39shooting fish in a barrel as they say.
4:41So, um, he has to every every day his
4:45concentration is, uh, throwing out white
4:48rabbits and dead cats. Um, this is a a
4:53kind of way of saying, look, if I go
4:55into a room full of reporters and I
4:57release a bunch of white bunnies,
4:59everybody's eyes is going to follow the
5:00bunnies as they hop around the room and
5:03if at the same time I pull I get a bag
5:05and I pull out a dead cat and I slap it
5:07on the table, everyone's going to look
5:09at the dead cat. Well, while they're
5:11funny following the bunnies and looking
5:13at the dead cat, they're not paying
5:16attention to the long-term issues. He
5:18says something outrageous, you know, the
5:20Lake of America, um, you know, New
5:23America, you know, names, anything. And
5:26he and it works. Um, Epstein is still
5:29there. It's not going to go away, but
5:31he's trying to minimize it. And this
5:34goes back to how Donald Trump thinks
5:36about the world. uh in his biography, he
5:39said he was asked, he said, you know,
5:41your extraordinary success in business,
5:44you know, how how do you do it? And he
5:46said, well, I I um I maximize each day.
5:49I said, I get up in the morning and I
5:51figure out how I can get the most out of
5:54today and then tomorrow I do the same.
5:58And this is very very clearly the
6:01pattern that he is following. So uh
6:04while because he's um you know Iranian
6:08war you know there lots of conflicts um
6:13he has been pushed to um you know attack
6:16China uh through you know these these
6:18different oh I'm going to put more
6:20tariffs on you and uh you're buying
6:22Russian oil therefore you're the enemy
6:24and he's amassing um what he thinks are
6:28u very um coercive tools uh for instance
6:33says, "I can put 100% tariffs." Well, I
6:36I'm I'm always amazed by how he says
6:38these big numbers. The fact is once you
6:40get behind
6:4250% tariff, there is no real trade. Uh
6:46because it just becomes impossible um
6:49you know to for that the customers on
6:51his side because remember tariffs as
6:53we've all discussed a zillion times are
6:57a tax on the people of the country that
7:00imposes them. and on attacks on the
7:02other country. And he's even given up
7:04talking about that. He just says, "Oh,
7:05there's lots of money coming in." Well,
7:07he's taking it from the American people.
7:10So, he's uh in this situation where he
7:12uh he feels sometimes forced uh to make
7:15China uh front and center. It's it's the
7:18problem. All this type of thing. And
7:19we'll have to see uh what actually
7:22happens uh during this meeting. I mean,
7:25he's he's signaling, you know, a state
7:27banquet and how difficult it is to get
7:29it. I think this is part of, you know,
7:33this kind of personal glorification that
7:35he likes. Uh he likes to be with the big
7:38guys. Uh and this goes back to his early
7:42uh days. Uh not early days, uh his
7:45career, uh in New York. He always wanted
7:48to be respected and one of the, you
7:50know, the big guys. The fact is Donald
7:52Trump was not a major developer in New
7:54York. He was just um considered somebody
7:58who was nearer the bottom. Uh somebody
8:01who was trying to make a splash, use PR,
8:04uh but didn't really have any uh good
8:06sense uh about real estate. You know,
8:08they laughed when he bought the um uh
8:11the uh uh Ritz, not Ritz Carlton, the
8:14Plaza Hotel at the height of the market.
8:18And um you know, they they they he was
8:21often ridiculed and he was pushed aside.
8:24that no one wanted to meet with him.
8:25They didn't consider him their equal.
8:27And this gave him kind of a put a big
8:29chip on his shoulder uh about being with
8:32the big guys being taken seriously. So,
8:36uh it explains why when it comes to
8:38Putin and she uh even sometime used to
8:42be Modi, not so much anymore. um um
8:45Arowan, he he likes to be with big
8:47powerful men and to say, "Yeah, I'm I'm
8:50one of the one of the guys and we get
8:52along really well even though we fight
8:54everything like this." This is really a
8:56leftover from the New York real estate
8:59scene. So, uh yes, um the short answer
9:03is it's um you know, it's a situation
9:06where China is trying to narrow the
9:08scope and prevent any kind of disaster
9:11happening, him going off stripped. Uh
9:14Donald Trump wants to show that he's a
9:15powerful guy and to distract American
9:18attention from his his issues. What can
9:21actually be uh accomplished, not certain
9:24from the Chinese side, it's important to
9:26keep the door open. Uh they recognize
9:29that closing the door creates um greater
9:33risk than keeping the door open and
9:36that's what what they're doing. Donald
9:38Trump, as I said, has his own agenda.
9:41>> Wow. Uh well said. Uh, a lot to digest
9:43there. You know, ever since I mean
9:46forever the West has been interested in
9:48China's economy and really kind of in my
9:51opinion misinterpreting it. But since
9:52the trade war began, all of the major
9:55media networks in the US, all the major
9:58publications have been incredibly
9:59interested in China's economy. Everyone
10:01likes to talk about AI, electric
10:04vehicles, all of the new tech, the solar
10:06panels and so forth. But the vast uh
10:09you've argued that the vast largely
10:11invisible layer of intermediate goods is
10:14more important. So why is this
10:17industrial base so decisive and what is
10:21it?
10:22>> Okay, I I I I dare somebody
10:27to go about their normal life and uh not
10:31touch something that was made in China.
10:33And by that I mean not not just your
10:35phone and all the stuff in the air. I'm
10:38I'm saying you your your bicycle um when
10:41you uh get up in the morning, the hinges
10:44on the your door as you go out the door
10:47knob itself uh when you open the faucet
10:51um you know to wash your face or wash
10:54your dishes. Guess what? Uh clothes you
10:58wear. And you know what I'm talking to?
11:00They own all the brands? No. But what
11:03they do is they make all the washers,
11:05the nuts, the bolts, uh the plastic. Um,
11:08and it's just everywhere. And people
11:11say, "Oh, you know, this must have been
11:13a conspiracy to undermine America, you
11:16know, just slowly." And I said, "No,
11:19let's let's go back a while." You know,
11:21China didn't have uh a lot of um uh what
11:25do you call that? They had no resources.
11:27I mean they they in terms of resources
11:30per person out of 200 roughly 200
11:34countries China is 100. So uh they're
11:37not in a in a in a good spot in
11:39resources. They certainly had no um
11:42currency reserves or anything like that.
11:44They 1979 they're starting out at zero.
11:47They don't have a modern banking system,
11:49insurance, all the things we take for
11:51granted. Uh their cities were poor, the
11:54people were poor. um and uh but they
11:57were proud, willing to work hard and
11:59willing to learn. But that doesn't get
12:02you an entree to the big game. So what
12:05they did is uh many companies would
12:07concentrate on areas where you could get
12:10um where there are economies of scale.
12:13Uh you could um make uh screws, right? A
12:16screw machine can work basically, you
12:18know, 20 23 hours a day if somebody's
12:21making sure that it's oiled and working
12:24right. I know that because my great
12:25uncle used to have a screw and nut and
12:28bolt mach business in the United States
12:31and he explained the basis of it. But
12:33that all moved to China. Why did it move
12:35to China? Well, the Chinese were willing
12:38um to get the business and grow the
12:40business, they would take lower margins.
12:44So, they would take uh 3, four, 5%
12:46margins. Why is that important? Well,
12:49any business in the United States that
12:51went to a bank and said, "I'd like to
12:52borrow some money." Or they went to the,
12:55you know, the markets and said, "Look, I
12:56have this great business idea. I want to
12:59invest a lot of money and, you know,
13:01it's capital intensive, the machines
13:03that you have to buy to build these
13:05things." I said, "And I what I'm aiming
13:08here is somewhere between 3 and 5%
13:10return over 15 years." All right? You
13:13can imagine the banks are looking at
13:15you. You're kidding me.
13:18Why would we invest in a business like
13:20that for 3 to 5% you could just buy
13:23America, you know, you could buy
13:24treasuries or something and get the same
13:27amount? This is ridiculous. Unless you
13:29have 8% and then it has to be some
13:31extraordinarily safe investment. We're
13:34just not interested. And the markets,
13:37you know, they look at it says, "You're
13:38kidding me, right? Get out of my office.
13:40I don't even want to talk about this."
13:42So, uh, this approach worked. So, um,
13:47and it's not just a new phenomenon. In,
13:50uh, when I first went to China in 2000,
13:54I was just looking around. I went to
13:56ended up in a factory, I think in 2003.
13:59Massive factory. And I said, "Well, what
14:01do you make here?" He says, "We make
14:03vitamin C." And I'm looking at, you
14:05know, something that covers four
14:07football fields. And I'm like,
14:10"For who?" He says, "Oh, for the world."
14:13This is between us and uh three other
14:15competitors, Chinese, right? Uh we make
14:2098% of the world's vitamin C. All right.
14:24Well, you don't think about it, but
14:25every every every tablet you take that
14:28you know has this vitamin C added, guess
14:31what? It's coming from China. And that
14:32was true across all the chemicals. So
14:35for instance, if you have a generic uh
14:37medicine or even non-generic, the
14:40ingredients themselves, the underlying
14:42ingredients, the bulk uh chemicals will
14:45actually generally come from China. And
14:47that's very true. This is why India uh
14:50they often complain. They say, "Oh,
14:51well, you know, we have a trade deficit
14:53with China because we're, you know,
14:55we're buying all this stuff." Well, does
14:57that translate into a loss? Well, not
15:00really. uh cuz we put it into generic
15:03medicines and then we sell it for a
15:04profit to somebody else whoever is
15:08taking it around the world. Um so it
15:11appears a deficit on one side but if you
15:13start looking at the global trade in uh
15:15in medicines and things like that uh
15:17they're actually doing quite well.
15:19They're covering the costs plus they're
15:21making money. And this is not something
15:23they always like to talk about. I had a
15:25a a number of long interviews where I
15:28pointed this out and they said, "Well,
15:29yeah, that's not the point." And I said,
15:31"Okay."
15:33Anyway, um so China has really excelled
15:37at this model and it's really kind of
15:39helped them. Um but it, you know, it it
15:43came supercharged. They kept moving into
15:45areas where American and European
15:48businesses did not want to be. uh where
15:51other even in other countries uh they
15:53were not uh going to get involved. So
15:56you know you you if you look at your
15:58coat or something like that or your
16:00sweater and it says it's made in
16:02Bangladesh or Indonesia. The fact is
16:05that the the wool um u was processed in
16:09China. Uh you know even the tag on the
16:12back the little tag that says you know
16:14the size and things where that's made
16:17China.
16:18So it is um this kind of mountain. Now
16:21why is that important? Well, it's
16:24important to China because when you make
16:26all those bits and pieces, that means
16:28you can make almost anything and it's
16:30right there. Your supply chain is about
16:33zero. Okay? You you don't you can go
16:36across the street. I'll give you an
16:38example. Uh a place called Kung Chan,
16:40which is just outside of Shanghai. I
16:44went there to uh write a book uh about
16:46this place. some places no one has ever
16:48heard of. Uh but at that time 60% of all
16:53all laptops sold in the world were made
16:57in Konchan. And that's pretty
16:59extraordinary. A town you never heard of
17:01making 6% of laptops. And laptops were
17:03very very very very popular at the time.
17:06And I was kind of curious. Now Foxcon,
17:09which people might know, you know, they
17:11make Apple and all this type of stuff.
17:13They're exactly uh what I was talking
17:16about earlier about low um uh low
17:20returns. Uh it's estimated that they
17:24make stuff for Apple on a cost plus
17:28somewhere between, you know, a high 1.9
17:31to 2.3
17:34uh return. Can you imagine? Very very
17:37low return. But they do huge business.
17:39So they're actually making hundreds and
17:42billions of dollars every year but on
17:44low margin business. So they're there
17:47and the reason they capture the market
17:49is because they're doing exactly that.
17:51They're saying okay we can build this
17:53basically for you know well a three 3 to
17:565% margin. Well that's one advantage.
17:58We're willing to take less profit. The
18:00second one is their supply chain is all
18:04around them. They need motherboards.
18:07There's five or six countries within a
18:09stone uh companies within a stones throw
18:12that will say yeah we'll provide
18:13motherboards how many do you need right
18:15and they're working on the same model
18:17they're working on volume uh if they uh
18:19the the screen itself right there uh
18:23plastic injection molded right there so
18:26you know I I had visited Motorola
18:30the years running up in the late uh late
18:33uh 90s and um you know they were talking
18:37about, you know, their new product
18:39development and if they really put a
18:41rush on it, they could do it in two
18:42years, right? And I said, "Well, why?"
18:45He says, "Well, we have to send for
18:46parts to Taiwan, South Korea, Japan,
18:49China, and then we bring the parts here,
18:51we play around with them, and then we
18:53decide, well, we need something
18:54different. We create new specs. We send
18:56it over to them to make, they make it,
18:59send us a test batch and things like
19:01that." Well, time goes by. All right?
19:04And uh whereas in China uh that whole
19:07process can be reduced to a couple of
19:09months simply because everything is
19:11there. If I need a screw, I can go to a
19:13half a dozen places uh very near me and
19:16they will have that screw that I need.
19:18So this this has really been the
19:20advantage uh of China. These cluster
19:23developments uh combined with lower a
19:26willingness to take lower margins on
19:28large volume business. So um this is why
19:32China is so important. You can talk
19:33about the technology. The technology was
19:36made possible because they have all the
19:39bits and pieces to make whatever it is
19:42that they're necessary to deliver that
19:44technology. And this is something that
19:47for some reason is underestimated around
19:49the world. Um you know for instance uh
19:52many people in the US they'll say China
19:55stole our jobs.
19:58Not true. I I don't know how you steal a
20:00job. you come in the middle of the night
20:01and say
20:06u
20:08it did it did happen but the wasn't
20:11theft it was a giveaway because when I
20:14start talking about you know I have a
20:16company taking lower margins well what
20:20happens in the US in the US you have an
20:22MB you know we have a somebody has an
20:25MBA or legal degree or accounting or all
20:28three or they're consultants and things
20:29like um and they get paid based on the
20:33bottom line maximizing shareholder
20:35value. So even if an American company uh
20:39is making profit, if they see that they
20:43can ship the manufacturing overseas and
20:47make more profit, that means they're
20:49going to get a bigger bonus. And the
20:51bigger bonus is, you know, that's the
20:53cheese for the rats. So this is what uh
20:56happened. I mean, it was just there's no
20:59competition. Uh 8% for this company or I
21:01can, you know, 8% margin for this
21:03company and it'll take a little bit
21:05time. They're a little slower. Uh or and
21:08remember, uh American workers were paid
21:10more. Um so it's not only that I'm
21:13willing to take less profit, but the
21:15process itself is less expensive. Now,
21:18that's not as true today as it used to
21:21be. uh China is climbing um you know
21:26creating middle class people doesn't
21:28come from paying a minimum wage
21:31um and they've been quite successful in
21:33in doing that but what they're doing is
21:35like I said it's the lower margin
21:37overall and then there's cluster
21:39development that allows them to do that
21:41so America gave away a lot of its
21:43competitiveness um and it was aided by
21:47or I said it was it was exacerbated by a
21:50strong dollar. The stronger my currency
21:52is, the less competitive my goods are.
21:55That's just the way it is. Now, for the
21:58politicians, it's great. Oh, look, we
22:01can buy oil cheap and buy stuff overseas
22:04cheap. Isn't that wonderful? Yeah. But
22:06your products are cheap anymore. And
22:08then you can say you can borrow lots of
22:10money, right? Very, very cheaply. And
22:14you know, for
22:17I I was a politician. the the lure of
22:19cheap money
22:21is something that very few can refuse.
22:24They always have an idea of how they can
22:26cut taxes, increase the debt. Uh but
22:29it's such a small amount, you know, who
22:31cares, you know, some we'll we'll let um
22:34future generations figure out what the
22:36problem is and how to solve it and
22:38things like that. And so that's that's
22:40kind of in a nutshell where we are today
22:43and why China is so important and almost
22:46impossible to get out. You know, I
22:49figured it's between 26 and 28 trillion
22:53or 23 was it 23? Yeah, 23 trillion um
22:58just for the US to create the kind of
23:01nuts and bolts and plastics and chemical
23:04companies that would necessary. Here's
23:06the problem. If you invested 23 trillion
23:09trillion, you're still going to get a
23:11very low rate of return because you're
23:13competing. You also will have to have uh
23:16protection uh during that time while
23:18they're developing because they're not
23:19going to they're not going to develop
23:20these companies if they're not assured
23:22that there's going to be a market for
23:23them to sell in. Which means you're in
23:25essence going to subsidize them. Well,
23:28who subsidizes them? Taxpayer.
23:32Who's going to have to pay a higher
23:33price? The taxpayer. So not only do you
23:38subsidize the companies in terms of
23:40their development then then you have to
23:42pay uh not only in taxes but in terms of
23:46higher price versus something you could
23:48get somewhere else and it becomes more
23:50intense because uh as as you are
23:54building your industry you're in essence
23:56creating additional capacity.
23:59So you know supply and demand uh that's
24:03what normally is but once you start
24:05putting these economic um barriers in
24:10you're building capacity which means
24:12that the rest of the world uh is going
24:14to be in a situation where it's more
24:16competitive you're competing against
24:18existing capacity. So this adds a third
24:21layer where you're your new capacity is
24:24competing with old capacity and it
24:27becomes a blood bath and you're
24:28certainly you might be able to sell in
24:30captive markets uh like your own but
24:33you're not going to be able to sell
24:34internationally. So this is the
24:37conundrum that you do people think that
24:39you know um helping that developing
24:42countries says well they do it all the
24:45time right they protect industries China
24:47did it they did it with their internet
24:49they didn't allow uh Google and all the
24:51resties in um you know
24:56what were the big ones uh yeah anyways
24:59they didn't let these companies in and
25:00they subsidized the development of new
25:03industries and things like that well
25:05there's a big difference between a
25:07developing country which is trying to
25:09protect nent industries which are
25:11necessary to its future development and
25:15already developed countries which are
25:17simply trying to insist that they're
25:19entitled to a market. Uh the economics
25:22are not the same. Uh one is just trying
25:25to bully the other. The other is trying
25:26to be prevent itself from being bullied
25:29in essence to be dependent on some other
25:32entity. So the these are the kind of um
25:35stresses and fractures that are
25:38happening and uh why Donald Trump's
25:40attempts at uh re-industrialization are
25:43doomed to failure. There's just no I
25:45don't know any businessman who says
25:47unless they can make all their money
25:49back before Donald Trump leaves uh which
25:52is a very short term frame for an
25:54investment and return um it's just not
25:57worth it. The next administration will
25:59probably change. um there might still be
26:02some terrorists but you can't rely on it
26:04and business is about predictability
26:07reliability if I invest a big amount of
26:10money what is my return going to be
26:12what's u my economic risk which I can
26:16understand it's competition etc and
26:18demand uh but political risk is off the
26:21charts and if you don't understand the
26:23political risk um you could be you know
26:26in bankruptcy court in a very short
26:28order so this is The problem today is
26:31that companies are confronted with
26:33enhanced political risk because you
26:35don't know what's going to happen from
26:37day to day. If you're relying on a a
26:40relationship and you know supply and
26:42demand, but then Donald Trump says I'm
26:44going to put tariffs on you or China
26:46says well you know US did something
26:48we're going to retaliate. This could
26:51ruin your markets. You know all you need
26:53to do is go talk to uh people in the
26:55upper Midwest who are now suffering
26:57because of what's happening with Canada.
26:59You know, Canada is a very evil country
27:01that's been trying to undermine us
27:04since, you know, the very beginning.
27:05They just smile and pretend to be nice.
27:08Actually, they're the voracious animals.
27:10They're the wolves waiting on our border
27:12to invade and overtake us. I'm just, of
27:16course, talking facitiously. Canadians
27:18are the nicest people in the world. Um,
27:22they are
27:25not only good neighbors, but uh
27:27outstanding allies. uh they fought
27:29alongside us and and wars that even we
27:32shouldn't have fought. Um so I mean they
27:36they're the last country on earth where
27:38we should be going to trade war with and
27:41we're so intertwined especially in the
27:43automotive industry and wood and so many
27:46other areas uh energy um it just doesn't
27:49make sense. So if I was a businessman
27:54and I was saying, well, Canada,
27:57why would we go to war with Canada,
27:59right? So that I I would say there's no
28:02political risk in setting up a factory
28:04in Canada. In fact, you know, the big
28:07guys do it all the time, right? You
28:08know, all the big automotive companies
28:10there, they have things going back and
28:12forth across the border on a daily basis
28:16uh to um you know, make these cars. you
28:18know, they they don't think there's a
28:20risk. Why should I? Now, you found
28:22people um ranchers, etc., you know, who
28:25are really being hurt by this because
28:27they never considered the political risk
28:29because it for most people it doesn't
28:31make sense. Uh I I I don't really
28:34understand why Trump is doing it other
28:37than this kind of, you know, well, I
28:40wanted you to join the US and you
28:41didn't, so therefore, I'm taking my ball
28:44and going home. the kind of a behavior I
28:46would expect from an 11year-old,
28:48somebody who has no maturity. Um,
28:51unfortunately, that seems to be Donald
28:53Trump. But like I said, it's not
28:56something where you can ignore him. He's
28:58in charge of the most powerful country
28:59in the world in terms of military. It's
29:02still one of the richest countries in
29:03the world and it still has political
29:06heft. So, you have to deal with the
29:08world as it is, not as you want it to
29:10be. And therefore that is why China
29:13continues to engage and try to calm the
29:17waters where they can because it's not
29:19just China and the US relationship. This
29:22is the US and the world the global
29:25relationship and that's everybody. I
29:27cannot think of any country right now
29:30where he is not affecting uh the econ
29:33economics and political risks.
29:37>> Um wow again a lot to digest there. I
29:40want to talk about maybe Donald Trump
29:42flip-flopping a little bit and some but
29:44with some context. There's a factory in
29:46Ohio uh Illuminate USA which is a JV
29:49with a Chinese company Li where they
29:51make solar panels in the US with US
29:54workers for the US market. Uh you know
29:56when Ford the CEO of Ford wanted to work
29:59with BYD to make EVs in the United
30:02States initially Trump said no way. But
30:05now, as of about a week or two ago,
30:07Donald Trump basically said, you know,
30:09they would be open mind open to the idea
30:11of Chinese factories setting up in the
30:14United States to make cars or other
30:16products. Uh, do you think that's
30:19possible? Do you think BYD is still
30:21interested? Do you think Chinese
30:22companies are more wary now that they
30:24see the unpredictability of Trump? Or do
30:26you think that it's possible that
30:28Chinese companies can enter the US
30:30market and bring back some manufacturing
30:33by bringing this advanced technology in
30:35from China and working with US
30:37companies?
30:40>> Well, I I refer you to my last long-
30:42winded answer and I said there's
30:44tremendous political risk. Uh what
30:46happens um it might be fine for a while,
30:50but uh Trump has been known, as you just
30:52pointed out, to change his mind on a
30:54weekly basis.
30:56Um he does not hesitate to use anything
30:59which he creates leverage. You imagine
31:02if BYD puts hundreds of billions of
31:05dollars of investment. Would Donald
31:08Trump use that as leverage to get
31:10something he wants? I think the answer
31:12for most people is yeah I think he
31:14would. So um companies are very wary. On
31:18the other hand, if there was a
31:20legitimate um opportunity, I think quite
31:24clearly BYD would be very interested.
31:26They're an aggressive company. Uh they
31:29work uh kind of very differently from
31:31Tesla. Tesla has what, five, six
31:33different models. Um BYD has 40 plus and
31:38counting. Uh they're very much driven by
31:41consumer wants. So, when I get into a
31:44BYD car, uh even a midlevel, low-level,
31:49and I get into the back seat, cuz I
31:51don't drive here in China, um it is
31:55actually more comfortable uh than the
31:58luxury cars uh that my um deceased wife
32:01used to have. uh she she was in the
32:03luxury business. So she she had a
32:05Maybach uh you know the original one and
32:08uh Rolls-Royce, a Bentley um you know
32:12the Mercedes upper level 550 or whatever
32:16something like this and I all all all
32:18these you know very very supposedly
32:21luxurious cars and I can tell you
32:22without a doubt um
32:26they uh they compare nothing. I can get
32:29in and out of the cars. They're
32:32ergonomically perfect. Everything is
32:34kind of where it is. The only thing I
32:36don't like is they have so much
32:37technology and I have no idea how to use
32:39it. So, you know, I all I care is I can
32:43get in and out of the car naturally and
32:45easily. And uh when I sit in the seat, I
32:48have lots of leg room and the seat is
32:52comfortable. Um, and I know I I knew a
32:55lot of the people who ran um the car
32:58companies here, Volkswagen, Mercedes,
33:00and and BMW. And I always say, you know,
33:04you guys, you know, every year you make
33:07this big announcement and all you've
33:09done is change the angle of the of the
33:13back seat or things and and they're
33:16really not that great. um you you don't
33:18really listen to your customers and they
33:20said oh you don't understand you know
33:22German engineering and you know all this
33:24kind of stuff and says these these are
33:26breakthrough things and I said no
33:28they're not he says you know your cars
33:30truthfully some of them aren't very
33:32comfortable and they say oh you don't
33:35understand you know we we understand the
33:36market that's why we are the dominant
33:38players well they came back after co and
33:41they were no longer um dominant uh the
33:45electric car industry that they scoffed
33:48at. I remember I said, "Are you guys
33:51going to get into electric cars?" He
33:53says, "Oh, why would we do that? It's
33:56nonsense. People like the motor." All
33:59right, we know the business. People, we
34:02understand the people. The people, you
34:05know, they want the big engine noise.
34:07All right. Said, "Well, okay. I think
34:09they're going to want something that's a
34:10little bit more affordable.
34:13Oil is not as reliable as it once was."
34:16And we're talking about 12 12 years ago.
34:20And that's when uh China said that they
34:22were going to um for pollution purposes
34:25to help their cities get rid of all the
34:28smog and everything like that. They said
34:30we're going to switch to electric cars.
34:32And actually in in if you start looking
34:34at projections they made then they're
34:36ahead of their projections. Uh now over
34:3950% of all cars sold in in China are
34:42electric. uh and has made a huge
34:44difference in cities both in terms of
34:46noise uh also cost
34:50um and you know obviously uh you know
34:53the environment you're not breathing uh
34:56fumes all the time and this is being
34:59replicated around the world so right now
35:02the big story are Chinese electric buses
35:05because countries have faced the
35:08situation where oil is unreliable
35:11uh and and you you spot prices are
35:14through the roof. Diesel is at its
35:15highest point. Um, buses run on diesel.
35:19So, uh, okay, time to go electric. Uh,
35:21we'll put in solar panels that are
35:25renewable energy. Uh, we won't be
35:27subject to it. Uh, the cost is extremely
35:30low. In fact, today um, solar is less
35:34expensive than coal. And, uh, so people
35:38should really think about that. And
35:40then, you know, then you have to get
35:41into storage solutions and all this
35:43stuff. Oh, who who makes all that stuff?
35:46I know.
35:48Not not only do they they make the big
35:51equipment, but they make all the parts
35:53that go into the big equipment.
35:55Even if we wanted to make all the big
35:57equipment in US or Europe, guess where
35:59they'd have to buy all the pieces from?
36:01China. So, um, you know, at some point
36:06things never last forever. uh China's uh
36:09enjoying this now but at some point the
36:11model will move on and China has
36:13recognized this um they have the belt
36:16and road initiative which was started
36:19announced in 2013 and then since 2015
36:22has put almost $1.4 4 trillion dollars
36:26uh into infrastructure around the world
36:29connecting uh creating bridges, roads,
36:32rails, ports, airports uh and not
36:36randomly. You know, people say, "Oh,
36:38they're just going around, you know,
36:40doing stuff." No,
36:43take a look sometime at uh all the
36:46improvements done by the BRRI. You
36:48understand that it is a very
36:50interconnected web not and one that has
36:55several options. If you have a port, it
36:58is not that this port will be the center
37:00of the entire system and if the port for
37:03some reason doesn't work, the system
37:04will break down. Have a tremendous
37:07amount of redundancy built in. Uh there
37:10was always concerns for example uh that
37:13the United States with its what almost
37:16400 bases surrounding China uh would
37:20attempt to create a naval blockade. This
37:23is extremely um you know damaging to
37:26China because they have to import uh raw
37:29materials then they uh manu do added
37:33manufacturing add value to them and then
37:35they export them as goods around the
37:37world. For instance, all those air
37:40conditioners that people were literally
37:42dying for in Europe uh this last summer
37:46um those are being made um by Chinese
37:49companies and uh they're very necessary.
37:52These literally saved lives and things
37:54like that. So um the US said well you
37:57know we we can interfere with that. Um
38:01and China said okay well we're we don't
38:04want a direct confrontation. We don't
38:06want to create a point where um you know
38:11if they block us off by sea what do we
38:13can do? We can only go to war. They
38:15don't want that. They don't want a
38:16confrontation with China. I mean with
38:17the US. So what they did is they started
38:20creating land routes that uh use um you
38:23know these areas along Russia and
38:25Kazakhstan even Ukraine was a big part
38:28of that. That's why it was a huge loss
38:30to China uh when the Ukrainian war
38:33started. the idea that somehow China
38:35wanted a war that was ruining its
38:37economic planning probably not. Um
38:41anyway, so um China continues to be
38:45vulnerable in that area, but they keep
38:47trying to find alternatives that prevent
38:51uh anything from becoming, you know,
38:53this kind of fullcrumb where you can
38:55escape it and it's either war uh or
38:58submittal. Um, you know, even this last
39:02week, you've heard about people, well,
39:05the last couple of weeks, you've heard
39:07people in Washington talking about a
39:09plaza type accord and forcing China into
39:14it. Now, for those who don't know what
39:16the Plaza Accord is, it was an agreement
39:18between the United States and Japan that
39:20Japan would link its yen to the dollar,
39:23in essence, um, making it less
39:26competitive.
39:28understand how effective this was. Japan
39:31at that time in 1986 when this went into
39:35effect was worth more in real dollar
39:38terms than it is today. So it was great
39:42for the US. Uh we got rid of a
39:44competitor. All right. But it has not
39:47been so great for Japan. Now it's not
39:50Japan's only problem. They have
39:51demographic issues and other things. But
39:54this certainly um put a dent uh in their
39:58economy. And if you go back, if anyone's
40:01interested, go back to the 70s and early
40:0380s and you'll see that everything that
40:06was being said about China was said
40:09about Japan. Japan is trying to take
40:11over America. Japan is trying to ruin
40:14our industries. Japan is undercutting
40:16us. They have unfair advantages. They
40:19have malent.
40:20These were all said about Japan. Uh
40:23there were movies take this job and
40:25shove it. I mean there were all sorts of
40:27movies about how you know the Japanese
40:30were taking over the uh world. I mean I
40:32I think um there was uh with Michael Fox
40:35there was the one about time uh going
40:38back and forth in time and you know one
40:40of the ones in the future is he's
40:42working for a Japanese company because
40:44they own everything. But this was uh the
40:47attitude. Now why do I bring this up?
40:49This is because in America we have been
40:52dominant especially after World War II
40:55but even before then we were
40:57establishing our dominance and our
40:58dominance was based on being an empire.
41:01Empires take things they need. They
41:04don't negotiate from them. They just say
41:07look I want that I take it. And Donald
41:09Trump is very much of an empire guy. I
41:12want Greenland. Give it to me but it
41:15belongs to somebody else. That doesn't
41:16matter. I'm big and powerful and I want
41:18it. you know, I really want it, so you
41:20got to give it to me. So, you know, now
41:23they're they they're basically affirming
41:26um the agreement that they had before,
41:30he said, which was basically that the US
41:33has complete access to Creedland for
41:35defensive purposes and things like that.
41:37Anyway, it it it goes to to this um
41:41issue of you know risk uh what's what
41:44what is um actually happening and and
41:48you know the US just doesn't like we we
41:52don't like competitors when we saw Japan
41:55coming up we bashed it down um we even
41:58did it arguably to Europe remember after
42:02the fall of the wall who is our only
42:04peer competitor it's certainly not China
42:06is you know
42:07isn't even a glimmer in the eye of the
42:10economic world. It was Europe. Europe
42:13made the things we did. They made
42:14engines, they made um airplanes, they
42:17made medical equipment. Um and a lot of
42:20the things that we did and they were our
42:22competitors. Um there was a feeling in
42:25Washington that the reason that it was
42:27necessary to keep NATO is to make sure
42:30that Russia with all of its vast
42:33resources did not become attached to
42:36Europe because a Europe attached to
42:38Russia, guess what? It's a peer
42:40competitor. And we see that in things
42:42and there are a lot of people who feel
42:44that they're doing the right thing. When
42:46they say that they say, okay, the reason
42:48that we're pushing this is that
42:50Europeans aren't trustworthy. they've
42:52started in many uh wars, not only World
42:56War I and two, but you had hundred years
42:58war, you had uh you know these uh
43:01countries fighting amongst each other.
43:03We're doing them a favor by preventing
43:06them from being in the position where
43:08they could start another war. So there's
43:10always a kind of a rationale this kind
43:12of American exceptionalism that America
43:16is, you know, almost it's a god-given uh
43:20um responsibility for the US to control
43:23the world and bring it into um this
43:27liberal democratic capitalist fold
43:30because once everybody uh believes the
43:33same thing and and is under the same
43:35system, then there can't be any war.
43:38Well, I don't think that's true.
43:40Certainly hasn't worked out that way.
43:42And uh I think anybody who has been
43:45outside the US will for a certain period
43:48of time understand that one size does
43:50not fit all. That various cultures,
43:53various systems are going to persist.
43:55And if you try to undermine them and
43:58knock them down, all you do is create
44:00chaos. And we clearly see that in what
44:03happened with Iran. Uh we went in there
44:06in 1954 and took away uh basically
44:10destabilized put in our own guy because
44:13the democratically elected leader of
44:16Iran said we are tired of being ripped
44:18off by these foreign oil companies and
44:21I'm going to nationalize them so that we
44:23the people of Iran get a benefit from
44:25the resources of Iran. Well, this was
44:28not looked on favorably in Washington
44:31and particularly by the oil companies
44:32who were involved. And it wasn't just
44:34Washington at that time. It was also
44:36Great Britain. So they uh engineered a
44:38push push um put the sha of Iran in and
44:42then it set in motion
44:52a serious events that uh has led to
44:56where we are today.
44:59So good intentions maybe uh but in the
45:02end it it it doesn't uh uh really work
45:04out. So uh this empire mode is still
45:07there. Um the question is for many
45:10people do do we is this a period of
45:13American history which is our terrible
45:15teens where at some point we um get uh
45:20to a mature ability to reflect. I mean,
45:23I would have thought after 250 years of
45:26having a nation and understanding that
45:29we had only been at um been without
45:32conflict between 11 and 19 years
45:35depending on how you count of that time
45:38uh had actually been at peace otherwise
45:40we had been in continuous conflict. So
45:44that would have in my mind been the time
45:46to reflect and say well here we are
45:48today what are we and where what where
45:51is the future and what do we want to be
45:53as part of the future but reflection is
45:55not something that comes easily to
45:57politicians uh and certainly not to
46:00ideologues so we're kind of locked in
46:03here hopefully this is I said the
46:04terrible teens and at some point we'll
46:07realize that wars just beget other wars
46:09they don't create peace
46:13Um wow
46:15such an eloquent articulation. I want to
46:18ask about multipolarity to some extent
46:20because you know it the United States is
46:24in relative decline to a lot of nations
46:26around the world including China. BRICS
46:28is becoming more powerful. We see
46:30ddollarization starting up. You've
46:32argued that the world is moving from a
46:34uniolar to a multipolar system. Maybe
46:36we're already there, but what does that
46:38transition look like in practical terms
46:40in terms of, you know, the kind of world
46:42that is being built? Do you think that
46:44it will mean less international
46:46conflict?
46:48Um, uh, not at all. This is a problem.
46:51Uh, change is not a solution. Change is
46:54just a new set of problems.
46:56um the fact that the US has declined
47:00relative to the rings. Remember, the US
47:02still puts out more every year, but it's
47:07it's as a percentage of the globe, it's
47:10not uh keeping up. So therefore, as a
47:13percentage, it keeps going down.
47:16I was a chair of my uh the state of
47:18Wisconsin's international um
47:22international trade committee, whatever
47:23you want to call it. Whitco Witco
47:26uh long time ago obviously and you know
47:29I I was you know I I immediately set to
47:31work and talking. Our family had been
47:33involved in business uh and
47:35manufacturing things like that. We made
47:36submarines during World War II. We made
47:39ships on the Great Lakes uh cranes
47:42almost anything with engineering. Even u
47:45believe it or not we had a a very uh
47:48highly profitable area in making ice
47:50making machines.
47:52So um I was very interested. We we
47:55obviously knew a lot of the families uh
47:57like colder you know they they make they
48:00were making small engines and also you
48:01know all the bathroom stuff things like
48:03that and had Briggs and Strat and all
48:06these uh different things and they were
48:07run by in the old days they were run by
48:10um uh the families like Harishers and
48:13things like that. So uh you know I
48:15started talking says well what's what's
48:17going on? and he says, "Well, we're
48:19we're continuing to increase our output,
48:22but relative to the rest of the world,
48:23we're not keeping up." Um, and they
48:27said, you know, you have to understand
48:28today we are putting out more, but we've
48:33cut our u labor by a third, and we have
48:36to uh it's it's a competitive issue.
48:38It's not because we want to get rid of
48:40workers. It's simply uh competition um
48:43makes us you know if we don't put out
48:45more with less uh and cut our costs uh
48:48our competition will overwhelm us. So I
48:52understood that I you know I went to
48:54China um and you know the GE medical is
48:58based in Wisconsin. It was being run by
49:01IML uh who then went on to run GE as a
49:05whole. At the time when I went to China,
49:08you know, I looked around, it was pretty
49:10primitive. There were a lot of
49:12industrial things going on. There was a
49:14lot of manufacturing, but you know, it
49:16wasn't this city that you I mean, the
49:18areas that you see today, I mean, these
49:20big glossy uh high-rise, you know,
49:25fast uh trains, everything like that. Um
49:29but you know, I was talking says, "Well,
49:31what what's China to you?" He says,
49:32"Well, actually, I know it's about uh
49:36around 70% of everything that goes into
49:40an NMR. These these are nuclear magnetic
49:43resonant machine or a CAT scan. These
49:46are the things that you know when you go
49:47to the hospital that they take images of
49:50your body to get a better idea of
49:52whether it's cancer or bones or whatever
49:54it is um that you have a problem with."
49:57Um he says and we plan to bring that up
50:00to 90%. And he said well why is well
50:04it's cheaper we have a competitor uh our
50:08French competitor which they ended up
50:10buying in the end um but there were
50:12other competitors a German German one um
50:16and they said you know they're doing the
50:18same thing. So if one does it the others
50:21have to do it. Why? because if you don't
50:23do it your costs are more expensive and
50:27in the end you um you will be put out of
50:30business because you can't compete. So
50:34you you start looking at that uh and
50:37then you say okay what happens well
50:39China has and the global south have
50:41taken a much more prominent role not
50:43only as manufacturing places but also as
50:46demand.
50:47Getting back to how this connects to
50:50multipolarity is that you have countries
50:53that are now moving uh economically
50:57above being u just these kind of minions
51:00um in a system of colonialist uh
51:04control.
51:05And is it good? I would argue that the
51:09dangers are actually greater
51:12as the world becomes more multipolar.
51:15Why? Well, if you don't, if it's
51:18multipolar and people don't agree and
51:21you have no one shephering them, right?
51:24Well, then it becomes I'm bigger than
51:26you. I take what I want. That's what
51:28they've learned, right? This has been
51:30the colonial history of the last uh 500
51:34to a,000 years, depending on whether you
51:36want to include the crusades. Just take
51:39what you want, invent a reason. It's
51:41religious or it's economic or I have no
51:43reason or I just want your stuff.
51:45Doesn't matter.
51:46So, uh, then you would have the, uh, the
51:48strong praying on the weak, but there's
51:50always somebody stronger, and that would
51:52create chaos. You have actually more,
51:55um, problems. Um, and I I'm going to
51:59give a salute. Everyone says, "Oh,
52:00you're always so pro-China." Well, I'm
52:02I'm actually I don't care about anything
52:05other than does the government deliver
52:08what is necessary for people to have a
52:11better life, right? and do they take
52:14that up a notch and try to say well not
52:17only create a better life for the people
52:19but a more stable life and that means
52:21that internationally you want to limit
52:24political risk not increase it and
52:26that's where I think China is they uh
52:29came up um with a series of initiatives
52:34right many people who watch this are
52:36probably familiar with it the first one
52:38was of course uh the global security
52:41initiative and what does it stand for
52:43very simple. Every country is entitled
52:47to be secure
52:49and every c but your country's security
52:52cannot depend on the insecurity of
52:54another country. Very simple. There's no
52:57ideology involved. It doesn't matter if
52:59you have a a kingdom or republic or you
53:02know whatever. Security is important to
53:05your country and to your people. Second,
53:07the global uh development initiative.
53:10This is a a a system which says okay
53:14every country is entitled to develop and
53:17how they develop is up to that country
53:19because they're sovereign nations and
53:22they can choose their own path which uh
53:25meshes with their own political system
53:27and society and values and things like
53:29that. No country has the right to
53:32interfere in the development of another
53:35country. eg decisions made in your
53:37capital should not be the economic
53:39decisions forced on other people's in
53:43other countries. The next one was the u
53:46the global civilization initiative and
53:48these are all released two years apart.
53:51So don't think that they were random.
53:54Okay, this was a very very carefully
53:57planned and calibrated giving people
53:59time to get used to it. Global
54:01Civilization uh initiative um and this
54:04is my interpretation said look we have
54:08countries
54:09how they were drawn up whe they were
54:11drawn up by colonials who thought that
54:13they were being clever and putting you
54:16know u creating contentious issues that
54:19they could leverage in the future or by
54:22accidents of birth or conquest
54:25eg kings and queens kind of traded
54:27different lots of lands and along with
54:29their wives and things like that you
54:31didn't see that in Europe and many other
54:32places. Um or you know it was just
54:35simple conquest. So you know no country
54:39sprang forth you know miraculously as as
54:42one entity. And in fact most countries
54:45have u different groups, different
54:47ethnicities, different languages,
54:50different uh cultural um kind of
54:53tapestries that are woven together and
54:55called a country. Well, there's always
54:58this uh group out there that says, "Oh,
55:01you know, I I want to be separate. I
55:03don't want to be part of them." You
55:04know, like Texas. I don't We're Texas.
55:06We're not America, right? Or California
55:09or anywhere else. And you can go all
55:10over the world and there always some
55:12group that says, you know, we are
55:13entitled to have our own own place and
55:16make our own determination. The problem
55:18with that is it causes wars, conflict uh
55:23because invariably when you try to split
55:26the country up each side claims that
55:29they have the right to the you know the
55:31most um let us say productive part we we
55:35deserve the riches the oil there well
55:37that belongs to us. Gold yeah that also
55:40belongs to us. Do you want to share? No
55:41I don't want to share. So when you try
55:44to fractionize things, um you get into a
55:48situation where you're going to create
55:50conflict, things get smaller, it doesn't
55:52mean they're easier to manage. It's
55:55because you have a group that uh has now
55:57said, "Okay, we're all X." That's great.
56:00Even within X, there will be people who
56:03said, "Well, I'm X, but not that kind of
56:05X. I want to be XY." So we should have a
56:08further division. So you'll it never
56:11stops.
56:13So the solution is to say look we we
56:15have to respect and understand uh
56:18countries the way they are. We can't
56:20pretend that uh um you know they're
56:23natural occurring countries. They're
56:24they're complex tapestries, mosaics,
56:27however you want to put it of of
56:29different people's cultures um
56:32religions, backgrounds, ethnicity,
56:34languages. You it goes on and on but
56:37they're there. Um and the civilization
56:40initiative is saying you have to respect
56:42that. And it also recognizes in a
56:45multi-olar world, right? If you do not
56:49have respect for uh sovereignity, you're
56:52simply going to have the jungle. We
56:54just, you know, who cares who you are?
56:58There's one person from my country and
57:00your country that gives me the right to
57:01invade you and take everything you have.
57:04the uh the ability to come up with uh
57:07odd you know maybe odd sounding but you
57:10know uh reasons for doing what you do uh
57:14will present themselves. So what is what
57:17is China trying to do with these foreign
57:19foreign three initiatives? Well, it goes
57:22to the fourth initiative, this global
57:24governance initiative. That means that
57:26look, there's always going to be
57:28frictions. Question is, do we use tanks
57:30or do we use talks? And China says we
57:33have to have some sort of global
57:35understanding. Now, none of these
57:37initiatives have anything to do with
57:39ideology.
57:41They're very, very practical. But unless
57:44you have a framework in which countries
57:47big and small, rich and poor, uh can
57:50work with him, you're going to have
57:52chaos. And this is what uh China has
57:55been looking for. I I'm, you know, if
57:57somebody came along with a better idea,
57:59I think China would consider it. It's
58:01not a question of, oh, we thought of it,
58:04therefore it's great. Um it's a question
58:06of how do you make sure um that uh
58:11multipolarity
58:13uh and you know
58:15uh multilateralism doesn't just descend
58:18into complete chaos.
58:21There has to be respect and
58:23understanding and that understanding has
58:26to go beyond language. If you're going
58:28to understand a country, you under have
58:30to understand how complex it is. And
58:32that goes for China, India, goes for Sri
58:35Lanka, it goes in South America. You
58:39have complex forces there, colonial
58:41people who move there and now identify
58:43themselves not as former Spanish
58:46concistadors, but people who in fact uh
58:51they say, "I'm Ecuadorian, but your name
58:53sounds German." Yes. My great
58:55greatgrandfather moved here. Okay. Yeah,
58:58but what are you? So, you're German and
58:59no, I'm Ecuadorian.
59:01Kind of like Americans and things like
59:03that, they adopt uh the interests,
59:05language, culture of their own langu of
59:08their own country. So u how how do you
59:12um you know take these complex entities
59:15and weave them into something uh that
59:18makes sense uh that is going to make
59:20sure that the little countries aren't
59:22railroaded um by the big countries and
59:25that you can have an economic uh and
59:27political environment where you can
59:29settle issues as I said without
59:32resorting to conflict.
59:35>> Wow. you know, um I've been reading
59:37about the GCI and the other global
59:39initiatives for years, and I think that
59:41was the best explanation I've ever come
59:43across. Um, you know, all of the things
59:45that you said for this hour have been
59:47incredibly insightful. Thank you so much
59:49for your time, Aer Tangen.
59:52Thank you, Dress.

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