Global economy remains resilient: IMF July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update — Transcript

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1. 0:00And this week the International Monetary
2. 0:02Fund releasing its July 2026 World
3. 0:04Economic Outlook update delivering a
4. 0:07cautiously pessimistic assessment. The
5. 0:09global economy has remained more
6. 0:11resilient than expected but growth is
7. 0:14slowing and risks remain elevated
8. 0:16including around inflation. Now while
9. 0:19the International Energy Agency said
10. 0:21renewed US Iran hostilities threaten to
11. 0:23derail what had been a gradual recovery
12. 0:26in global oil markets following the
13. 0:28reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after
14. 0:30signing of the June 17th memorandum of
15. 0:34understanding but today President Donald
16. 0:36Trump said they'd agreed to an Iran
17. 0:38request for peace talks right to
18. 0:41continue while he insisted that the
19. 0:44ceasefire was over. So let's get exactly
20. 0:48what is going on here. Once again, we'll
21. 0:50bring in our US correspondent Shawn
22. 0:52Rasmus who joins us virtually from New
23. 0:53York. Shawn, good evening to you and
24. 0:55thank you so much for time. It's again
25. 0:57this maze right with the latter.
26. 1:00President Trump posting on Truth Social
27. 1:03that talks would continue at Iran's
28. 1:05request but that the ceasefire was over.
29. 1:08So again do we have confirmation from
30. 1:11Iran on all this?
31. 1:14>> We don't have that confirmation Bongiwe
32. 1:16because what tends to happen in this
33. 1:19scenario is President Donald Trump says
34. 1:21Iran wants me to do something, I've
35. 1:23agreed to something and then Iran later
36. 1:25disputes that. We haven't had that
37. 1:27dispute yet or confirmation of what
38. 1:29President Donald Trump has said but let
39. 1:31me tell you what the President of the
40. 1:32United States is saying after you know
41. 1:35those military strikes that we all
42. 1:36witnessed over Wednesday and Tuesday. We
43. 1:40didn't see anything of the last 24 hours
44. 1:42so that might be an indication yet
45. 1:43Bongiwe.
46. 1:48I'm getting some audio in my ear. Sounds
47. 1:51like a military parade. I'm sure that
48. 1:52has to do with something happening in
49. 1:54France but let me read you what
50. 1:55President Donald Trump has said. Uh the
51. 1:57Islamic Republic of Iran has asked us to
52. 1:59continue talks. We have agreed to do so,
53. 2:01but the US has stated to them that in no
54. 2:04uncertain terms the ceasefire is over.
55. 2:08So, the last tweet we had from the chief
56. 2:10negotiator of Iran was on Wednesday,
57. 2:12Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and he said
58. 2:14this, "America still hasn't learned that
59. 2:16bullying and breaking promises are no
60. 2:18longer cost-free. Let me put it plainly,
61. 2:20if you strike, you will get hit. Don't
62. 2:23flail about pointlessly or you'll sink
63. 2:25even deeper. The Strait of Hormuz will
64. 2:28only open with Iranian arrangements, not
65. 2:32American threats." Now, what does he
66. 2:33mean, Bongani way?
67. 2:35Um Mohammad Ghalibaf, the Iranian
68. 2:37speaker of parliament and the chief
69. 2:38negotiator, when he says Iranian
70. 2:40arrangements, let me read you the first
71. 2:42line of paragraph five of the memorandum
72. 2:44of understanding that was signed on June
73. 2:4617th. "Upon the signing of this MOU, the
74. 2:49Islamic Republic of Iran will make
75. 2:51arrangements using its best efforts for
76. 2:54the safe passage of commercial vessels
77. 2:57with no charge for 60 days." And then
78. 2:58the you know, the paragraph goes on to
79. 3:00say that they will negotiate, you know,
80. 3:02some you know, a future arrangements
81. 3:04with Oman moving forward. But that is
82. 3:06the sticking point. Why did we have
83. 3:08those skirmishes in the Strait of Hormuz
84. 3:10uh and late June and and and earlier
85. 3:12this week? Because Iran attacked
86. 3:14commercial vessels. That was a red line
87. 3:16for the United States, and so you saw,
88. 3:18you know, a military escalation. But
89. 3:20that is the genesis of the problem. It
90. 3:22is this dispute around paragraph five of
91. 3:24the MOU about who controls the Strait of
92. 3:27Hormuz. Iran believes that it has the
93. 3:29administrative capacity, uh control,
94. 3:32authority, and it is using that control
95. 3:35uh of of the Strait of Hormuz as
96. 3:37leverage for the basis of the framework
97. 3:41that allows for these 60 days of
98. 3:43negotiations on nuclear issues,
99. 3:44ballistic missiles, uranium issues. But
100. 3:47unless the Strait of Hormuz issue is
101. 3:49clarified, I think you're going to
102. 3:51continue to see uh these skirmishes
103. 3:54continue even though as the president
104. 3:56asserts peace talks are ongoing. We
105. 3:59understand that Pakistan and the Qataris
106. 4:01have been working very hard to get the
107. 4:03two parties back on track and we've seen
108. 4:05this before. They they go to skirmishes,
109. 4:07then you have a political offering and
110. 4:09then we go around the wagon again. Let's
111. 4:10see how it plays out in the days ahead.
112. 4:12>> And definitely the wagon it is, right?
113. 4:14The IMF this week also sending a message
114. 4:16that while the world economy is still
115. 4:19growing, the margin for error though has
116. 4:21narrowed due to a combination of
117. 4:23factors. That's the war in the Middle
118. 4:25East as well as trade among others.
119. 4:29>> Yeah, they give these outlooks every
120. 4:32quarter. I you know, the last update we
121. 4:34got was when we were at the IMF covering
122. 4:36the spring meetings in Washington D.C.
123. 4:38in April. This is what they're saying.
124. 4:402026 growth forecast 3% down from
125. 4:43April's forecast of 3.1%. Point zero
126. 4:460.1% is a lot and if you think about it
127. 4:49in terms of the global economy. This is
128. 4:51the kicker. Inflation's forecast from
129. 4:534.4% in April. It is what July now to
130. 4:564.7%.
131. 5:02existed before we were since 2024 has
132. 5:06all but stalled. Why has it stalled?
133. 5:08Energy prices have gone up, trade issues
134. 5:11in terms of, you know, tariffs and the
135. 5:13like. And so you are seeing
136. 5:16a resilience from the global economy but
137. 5:18you are seeing inflation take up, which
138. 5:21means prices are going up for people
139. 5:24everywhere. I'll also tell you what the
140. 5:26International Energy Agency said this
141. 5:28week. They said the renewed fighting
142. 5:30between the United States and Iran has
143. 5:31injected fresh uncertainty into the
144. 5:34global energy outlook just as oil
145. 5:37markets were beginning to recover. When
146. 5:39did they begin to recover? After the MOU
147. 5:42was signed on June 17th and you saw this
148. 5:44easing of the bottleneck in the Strait
149. 5:46of Hormuz. The agency says the reopening
150. 5:49of the Strait of Hormuz had allowed Gulf
151. 5:51oil exports to rebound, but the latest
152. 5:54military escalation now threatens that
153. 5:57recovery. And so you see this this
154. 5:59pendulum swing, right? There's some good
155. 6:01news, there's a political off-ramp, and
156. 6:03then you have a skirmish, and then
157. 6:04there's some good news, some political
158. 6:06momentum, and then you have a skirmish.
159. 6:08The point is, when do the skirmishes
160. 6:09stop so you can actually get to the
161. 6:11substance of the negotiations, which is
162. 6:13Iran's nuclear ambitions, uranium
163. 6:16enrichment, and ballistic missiles.
164. 6:18That's really the the main
165. 6:20element here. But what is confusing
166. 6:23though that process now is the extension
167. 6:25of the paragraph five in that memorandum
168. 6:27of understanding as it pertains to the
169. 6:29Strait of Hormuz.
170. 6:30>> It really is sounds like a long way to
171. 6:33go, Sean Roberts, as we go through the
172. 6:34merry-go-round once again of this
173. 6:37particular situation. And what exactly
174. 6:39happens now in light of the developments
175. 6:41in the past few days. But appreciate
176. 6:43your time. Thank you so much for just
177. 6:44making sense of this ongoing story for
178. 6:47us. Sean Roberts, please stay live for
179. 6:49us virtually from New York, speaking to
180. 6:51us about, you know, just what we've seen
181. 6:53around the escalation of tensions in the
182. 6:56Middle East. A big concern. And you
183. 6:58think about the ceasefire. Many were
184. 7:00hopeful, but what does that mean now? So
185. 7:03everything [music] is up in the air at
186. 7:05this particular stage. We'll