Get Ready For The BIGGEST Economic Boom Of Your Lifetime! — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:00The biggest rally of our lifetime may
- 0:02have just started this week. That's what
- 0:04Winston just told me. And it is set off
- 0:06by the one thing everybody was told
- 0:09would crash the stock market. For
- 0:11months, people had warned that this
- 0:13exact election result, a Democratic
- 0:16sweep would wreck voices and stocks. So,
- 0:20they sold. They went to cash. And 90% of
- 0:24them are now sitting there waiting for a
- 0:27crash. Well, that hasn't really come.
- 0:29unless you're one very specific sector.
- 0:30And this has happened seven times since
- 0:331954. If you've been watching me, you
- 0:35already know about this. A Republican
- 0:38president loses both halves of Congress
- 0:41to Democrats. A year later, every single
- 0:44time stocks were higher and this week
- 0:48made it the eighth. Wall Street knew the
- 0:50Dow has had its best day of the year,
- 0:53but the market does not go up as one.
- 0:56And maybe some of you are in pain. If
- 0:57you're in pain right now, put pain in
- 0:58the comments down below. It's all your
- 1:00fault, but we'll fix it for you. Because
- 1:02while the Dow threw its party, one
- 1:05corner got hammered and the stocks
- 1:07everybody had piled into for the last
- 1:09two years dropped under a line that the
- 1:12pros watch harder than almost anything.
- 1:14Now, the next thing is annoying, but I
- 1:16was positioned for that before the votes
- 1:18were counted. I will pull up all of this
- 1:20life in a minute, including how far
- 1:22stocks ran those seven previous times.
- 1:26So stick with me. This one really,
- 1:28really does matter. My name is Felix
- 1:30Nicholas Pin. I'm an economist and
- 1:31former investment banker. I'm also the
- 1:33founder of the PIN Institute where we
- 1:34publish research on financial markets
- 1:36and also instructions on on how they
- 1:38actually work. I take zero sponsorships,
- 1:41zero endorsements ever. So I can say
- 1:43whatever I like and that's just the way
- 1:45I like it. And no, this is not a
- 1:47political video. I get accused of that
- 1:48all the time. I don't care who you voted
- 1:50for. Red, blue, green, yellow, whatever.
- 1:53It's fine by me. Your money doesn't have
- 1:55a party and it shouldn't. So, there's a
- 1:58lot of stuff that's moving this week.
- 2:00Very, very important to understand the
- 2:02election, oil, the chip stocks, gold,
- 2:04the lots. I put all of that research
- 2:06behind this video into one free report
- 2:09from our institute. It's got the full
- 2:11table of those seven elections with what
- 2:13stocks did one month, three months, six
- 2:16months, 12 months later, the sectors
- 2:18that have tended to lead after midterms,
- 2:20the ones that have lagged, a checklist,
- 2:22tons of stuff. It's all free.
- 2:24felixfriends.org/boom
- 2:26is where you get that. It's down below
- 2:28in the description in the link as well.
- 2:30And I absolutely love that you're
- 2:31watching this because I love people who
- 2:32want to learn about how the markets
- 2:34really work because in my humble
- 2:35opinion, it's the path to freedom. So,
- 2:38let's start with the bit everybody gets
- 2:40raw. For most this year, you couldn't
- 2:42open up social media without someone
- 2:43telling you the stock market would
- 2:45crash. I may have been guilty of that
- 2:47once or twice myself, but once you make
- 2:48it past the headline, you'll understand
- 2:50what I'm actually talking about. If the
- 2:52Democrats took Congress, people were
- 2:55saying this, and I saw one post this
- 2:56week that put it perfectly. Somebody
- 2:58wrote out this line, "The stock market
- 3:00will crash when Democrats are elected."
- 3:02And underneath it, it said the market,
- 3:05and it showed a chart of a dollar
- 3:06invested in American stocks since 1926.
- 3:09Well, have a look at the red presidents
- 3:11on this chart. It's on the screen here.
- 3:13Blue president. And what happens? Well,
- 3:15the line just goes up and up and up and
- 3:19up. Nearly a hundred years of it.
- 3:21Then the results came in. Democrats took
- 3:23the House and the Senate. And the next
- 3:25day, the Dow Jones, which tracks 30 of
- 3:27America's biggest, oldest, shiniest
- 3:30companies, went up 3%. That's 1500
- 3:33points. Best day of the year. The S&P,
- 3:36America's 500 biggest companies, went up
- 3:391.6%. And the NASDAQ, which is stuffed
- 3:41with those technology companies, was up
- 3:431.4%. So, who got hurt? Well, not the
- 3:47people who did nothing for once. The
- 3:49people who got hurt are the ones who did
- 3:51something. They sold in October and they
- 3:53went into cash because they got scared
- 3:55and now they got a terrible choice. Buy
- 3:57back in higher or sit and watch. There's
- 4:00a second group that also got hurt and
- 4:02they don't even know it yet. Say you're,
- 4:04you know, 50 years old. You did
- 4:06everything right. You put your money in
- 4:07a big fund years ago and you got on with
- 4:09your life. You worked hard. Well, look
- 4:11at your fund this week and it probably
- 4:12looks fine because the index went up,
- 4:15but underneath it was carnage in places.
- 4:19Energy stocks down over 6%. This is a
- 4:21sector rotation thing you can track in
- 4:23the Winston app. Links down below, free
- 4:25trial and all that you don't like if you
- 4:26cancel it. So, the chip stocks also fell
- 4:30through a line the professionals treat
- 4:32as the difference between an uptrend and
- 4:35a downtrend. And I put it on the screen
- 4:37here for you. This is SMH, which is the
- 4:39semiconductor index fund. the sort of
- 4:40major one and there's the line on here
- 4:42which is blue right and I have to check
- 4:45the glasses make it green and um it's
- 4:47it's my version of you know LSD it's
- 4:50it's it's healthier for you and um that
- 4:53200 day moving average line which is
- 4:54what that is we've just dropped below it
- 4:56was the last time we did that well we
- 4:59last did that in April 2025
- 5:02which was actually a pretty good buying
- 5:05opportunity if you go back to it right
- 5:06the previous time we did that
- 5:08meaningfully was in September mber or
- 5:10rather sort of early 2022, right? It was
- 5:13trading at 84, then it's trading at 498
- 5:15right now. Again, I'm not telling you to
- 5:17buy this. I'm just saying these little
- 5:18dips have historically been pretty good.
- 5:21Why? Because the world actually runs on
- 5:23semiconductors whether you like them or
- 5:25not. So, what went up? Well, consumer
- 5:28discretionary, consumer staples, real
- 5:31estate, financials, healthcare. These
- 5:34went up against more than the index,
- 5:36right? If you look at the absolute
- 5:37returns, they did even better. But I
- 5:39always like to go look at compare it
- 5:40against the index because that's kind of
- 5:42tells me a lot more about where the
- 5:43money is really flowing. But you can see
- 5:45some big beautiful winners and some
- 5:47pretty horrendous losers. But remember
- 5:49the market overreacts both ways every
- 5:52time. It overreacted to the fear in
- 5:55October. Some corners overreacted this
- 5:57week in my humble opinion. And if you
- 5:59can't tell which bit is the
- 6:00overreaction, you end up selling the
- 6:02bottom on the one thing and holding the
- 6:05top on another. And it's never really
- 6:06very much fun. And spotting that is a
- 6:08skill, a skill that can be definitely
- 6:11learned. So think about where that
- 6:13leaves you right now. Your money is
- 6:15sitting in a market that just changed
- 6:17leadership in 24 hours. Oil fell 8% in a
- 6:20day. Energy got thrown out of the window
- 6:23with a baby in the bathroom water,
- 6:24right? Um which is good for me because I
- 6:26made money out of it. But the chip
- 6:28stocks that carried the whole market for
- 6:29two years, they're like beaten up and
- 6:32crying in the corner. And at the same
- 6:34time, the shops, the banks, the big
- 6:37platforms that own the data centers were
- 6:39bid apart. I explain to you why that
- 6:41happened. But if your money is in the
- 6:44wrong pot, and these are just
- 6:4712 of these pots. They're actually about
- 6:49150 in total, but this is just a
- 6:51simplification. Well, it doesn't really
- 6:53matter how good the index looks. You
- 6:54lose. You lose slowly, and you don't
- 6:56notice until, you know, your retirement
- 6:58gets pushed back by a few years. In my
- 7:00humble opinion, the window on this is
- 7:02short. Look at those seven elections
- 7:04again in a minute and I'll and you will
- 7:06see the biggest part of the move came in
- 7:07the first three months. On average,
- 7:09stocks were up more than 10% within
- 7:13three months of that vote. I'm not
- 7:14promising you that I haven't got a
- 7:16crystal ball, but that's the historic
- 7:18pattern. The clock started ticking on
- 7:20Tuesday. Spotting where the money is
- 7:22going next is a skill, a skill you were
- 7:25never taught because school and college
- 7:27is largely useless when it comes to
- 7:29money. So, our whole mission here is to
- 7:33write that wrong. So, this Saturday, the
- 7:357th of November, I'm going to teach you
- 7:37live and for free. And I call it the
- 7:39great pivot because the money pivots
- 7:41from chips into something else. It's at
- 7:459:00 a.m. New York time, 2 p.m. London
- 7:47time, 300 p.m. If you live on the Soviet
- 7:50continent of Europe, uh if you're in
- 7:52Asia or down under, you're going to have
- 7:53to figure out what time it is. You may
- 7:54have to be up a little bit late and ask
- 7:56for parents permission. And our goal
- 7:58there is to leave you with a game plan
- 8:01for not just this market but for every
- 8:03market to come so that you are more
- 8:05skilled. Not a stock tip list but make
- 8:08you more skilled. So on Saturday I'll
- 8:11show you exactly how I worked out what
- 8:13was actually going to happen here. And
- 8:14I'm not always right. Absolutely not.
- 8:17But the point is not to be horribly
- 8:18wrong. And if you just learn that you're
- 8:20going to do a lot better. So join us at
- 8:22greatpivot.org. Link is down in the
- 8:24description down below. Dualingo stock
- 8:27is flying by the way. Apparently
- 8:28everyone's going to learn Spanish in the
- 8:30US.
- 8:32Uh so back to those seven elections.
- 8:36This is a chart from
- 8:38I don't know who. Um looks a bit like
- 8:40the FT but it's probably AI. Um it shows
- 8:44every time since 1954 that a Republican
- 8:46president has lost Congress to the
- 8:48Democrats at midterms. 1954 and 1958
- 8:51that was Eisenhower. 70 was Nixon. 74
- 8:54was Ford. 86 was Reagan 90 under the you
- 8:57know Bush the the primary uh and then
- 9:002006 under Bush the secondary and that
- 9:03happened seven times. So it also shows
- 9:04what the S&P did afterwards. That's what
- 9:06these little bars are. One month later
- 9:092% up on average. 3 months later 10% up
- 9:13on average. 6 months later 17% up on
- 9:16average. And a year later 15% up on
- 9:18average. Positive all seven times. And
- 9:21that's pretty extraordinary, isn't it?
- 9:2315% in a year on average after the exact
- 9:25results that some of you are celebrating
- 9:27and some of you are terrified of
- 9:28depending on what side of the aisle you
- 9:30happen to wake up. And Trump is now the
- 9:32eighth president on this list. And it
- 9:36isn't just me putting this out. JP
- 9:38Morgan, the mighty, their market
- 9:40intelligence team, which apparently is
- 9:42the most intelligent team in the world.
- 9:43Just ask them, they'll tell you. They
- 9:45put out a note this week and they say
- 9:47the S&P 500 has been up a year after
- 9:49every single midterm election since
- 9:511950. who ever won with an average gain
- 9:54of around 15% which is what I just
- 9:55talked to and since 1990 they've broken
- 9:58it down even further. Here it is three
- 10:00months after the midterms 5% up six
- 10:03months after 11% up 9 months after 12%
- 10:06up a year after 14% up and so on. So
- 10:08it's been up every single time since
- 10:101990. So why why would Wall Street cheer
- 10:14a government that can't agree on
- 10:16anything because that's what's going to
- 10:17happen. But let me put it in in in in as
- 10:20plain English as I can. When the White
- 10:22House and Congress are run by different
- 10:24parties, almost nothing big gets done.
- 10:28Taxes stay where they are. Regulation
- 10:30doesn't really change. It's like having
- 10:33well gridlock. And guess what? The
- 10:36market loves gridlock. The more
- 10:38gridlocked your government, the better
- 10:40the stock market. Why? Because it's
- 10:41predictable. We know nothing big's going
- 10:44to happen. No bright shiny ideas, no
- 10:47new, you know, let's save the world type
- 10:49things. Um, wonderful. If you're an
- 10:51investor and maybe you think it's
- 10:53terrible because you really wanted your
- 10:54party to do something particularly
- 10:56special, but you know what? The stock
- 10:58market, your money doesn't care for
- 11:01special or any kind of change. The right
- 11:04now the constant is just about good
- 11:06enough. Now, is there an exception to
- 11:08this? Yes. Ford 1974, we were down 10
- 11:11months 10% a month later, 18% up a year
- 11:14higher. Why? It was high oil and sticky
- 11:17inflation. And there's of course some
- 11:18parallels to what's happening in the
- 11:20Middle East there. So pay attention to
- 11:21that. And Reagan just did a well it was
- 11:24up a percent later because we had the
- 11:261987 crash. So this does not say be
- 11:30blind everything is going to go up in a
- 11:32straight line by the way. Right? Always
- 11:34invest and trade with a plan. But let me
- 11:36just break down one or two more of these
- 11:39rotations because it's so important that
- 11:40here's that table again I was just
- 11:42showing you. And it's really really
- 11:45personal to you and your portfolio
- 11:47because the market is not one market. It
- 11:50doesn't go up as one. Right? Look at the
- 11:52sector rotation again. It splits the
- 11:54American stock market into its 11 big
- 11:56sectors and it shows which ones are
- 11:58leading and which ones are lagging. And
- 11:59I've got it set to just one day last
- 12:02day, right? Day after election. And I
- 12:05compare it against the S&P 500 here. And
- 12:09energy went down over 6% against the
- 12:11market in the singleton. So the energy
- 12:13sector, which is an index fund called
- 12:15XLE, fell like just under 5% that day.
- 12:18The S&P went up 1.5% that day. So, you
- 12:21know, there you are. Industrials were
- 12:23down, technology was down, utilities
- 12:26were down. Meanwhile, the money poured
- 12:27into shops, restaurants, consumer
- 12:29discretionary, the stuff people buy when
- 12:31they feel good for the same day, same
- 12:34market, and the gap between the best
- 12:36sector and the worst sector was almost 9
- 12:38percentage points. And that's what I
- 12:40mean when I say money doesn't leave the
- 12:42market. It moves from one pot to
- 12:44another. So, why did energy get hit so
- 12:46hard? Well, oil Brent crude the global
- 12:48oil price fell 8% in a day. Why? Because
- 12:51people will think that Trump has less
- 12:55backing to continue the Middle East war
- 12:58because he has just less sort of
- 13:00political cloud right now, right? And
- 13:02here is that actual chart and you can
- 13:03see the the harsh pullback. You can see
- 13:06this consumer discretionary which is
- 13:08absolutely flying. So, what did I do
- 13:10before this election? Well, I was short
- 13:12energy and I was long most other things.
- 13:14Uh, doesn't really matter what I do, but
- 13:17maybe take a screenshot of this one here
- 13:19because this is actually quite
- 13:20important. A year after midterms, again,
- 13:23this is JP Morgan data, you know, hail
- 13:25the the mighty uh and and all that.
- 13:27There really are wonderful people, the
- 13:29best people in the world. Absolutely.
- 13:30You know, cure cancer and everything
- 13:32else that just in it for the little man
- 13:34and then saving humankind and you know,
- 13:36that kind of thing, which probably makes
- 13:37me get away with using that charts. Um,
- 13:39so yes, the index did well, 15% up
- 13:43almost on the year, but look at consumer
- 13:46staples. They were down 8% on the year.
- 13:47Energy was down 5% on the year. Real
- 13:50estate was down 6% a year. Utilities
- 13:51went on 8% on the year. So, it wasn't
- 13:53bloody equal, was it? It wasn't all the
- 13:55same. So, if you potentially want to
- 13:58outperform, you might need to understand
- 14:00at least these 11 sectors and what it
- 14:03moves them and why. I think oil is
- 14:05really the one to watch. Let's see what
- 14:06the American buildup in the Middle East
- 14:08is doing, whether we're going to see
- 14:09another, you know, bombardment or
- 14:11whether it's the final fireworks or or
- 14:14whatever. We'll see. And that'll
- 14:15obviously have an impact. But if you are
- 14:18like many people just purely in chip
- 14:21stocks, and this popped up in my Twitter
- 14:24feed, and I don't know who this guy is,
- 14:26no diss him whatsoever, but he says, "We
- 14:29are effed. Absolutely effed. The AI
- 14:31trade is over. We all top blasted and
- 14:34holding bags now. I can't believe it.
- 14:35How could we have been so wrong? This
- 14:37market makes no sense. My spleen hurts.
- 14:39I haven't seen green in such a long
- 14:41time. I miss money. I miss smiling. I
- 14:43miss sleeping, not checking my phone
- 14:44every one minute. I miss waking up
- 14:46happy. I should have stayed in cash. Um
- 14:49the problem is that this chap
- 14:51unfortunately gives you real-time
- 14:52alerts, those trades, and presumably
- 14:54there's a payment for that. the delight
- 14:57and and I guess imagine that this is his
- 14:59portfolio yesterday which is basically a
- 15:03pure bet on pure AI, right? Which is
- 15:09just unfortunate. I feel very sorry for
- 15:12the chat, but he doesn't realize that
- 15:15there is a world out there that isn't
- 15:18AI. He doesn't realize the healthcare
- 15:20stocks, real estate stocks, consumer
- 15:22staple stocks, material stocks, really
- 15:24boring crap that would have shielded him
- 15:27from this horrible thing that's now
- 15:28making him lose sleep. And my goal is
- 15:31that less and less people will make
- 15:35those mistakes because yes,
- 15:37semiconductors got clobbered like a baby
- 15:40seal. That's a professional Wall Street
- 15:42term by the way, not mine. It's a very
- 15:44nice term, is it? Um but um if you bet
- 15:48all your money on one thing and if
- 15:50you're feeling some pain right now, use
- 15:52it as a lesson. Use it as a motivation
- 15:54to not do it again. Because this chap I
- 15:57just showed you clearly hasn't learned
- 15:58the lesson because he then rambles on
- 16:00about how hedge funds manipulate the
- 16:03market and and and you know all that
- 16:04sort of stuff. Doesn't for a second
- 16:06think that he might have a skill gap and
- 16:08that he's actually to blame for it.
- 16:10Right? I'm always to blame for all my
- 16:12losses. I'm also to blame for my
- 16:14winners. And it's the same for you. If
- 16:15you want to take credit for the winners,
- 16:17you need to take credit for the losses.
- 16:19And if you have outsized losses, and
- 16:21outsized simply means you are checking
- 16:23your phone every 5 minutes, you're not
- 16:25sleeping well, you're thinking about it,
- 16:26and you're not a happy person, you've
- 16:29got too much risk on, right? So, we need
- 16:31to do something about that. So, come and
- 16:32join us on on on Saturday and we'll
- 16:34we'll we'll fix that for you. And quite
- 16:37honestly, I think we're nearing a point
- 16:38where semiconductors are becoming an
- 16:40opportunity again and I will I will
- 16:42then, you know, buy them again. um not
- 16:44quite yet but I will at some point. But
- 16:47the real play, this is really what I
- 16:49wanted to understand is there were a lot
- 16:51of stocks that did really well in the
- 16:53last day. And who was it? It was Amazon.
- 16:56It was it was Google. It was um
- 16:59Microsoft. Why? Because these are the
- 17:02guys with the biggest data centers on
- 17:04the planet and they're already built.
- 17:06They've already got power. And if we're
- 17:09now entering a world where US now
- 17:12democratic states like Texas will say,
- 17:15"No, we're not going to build as many
- 17:16data centers because we're short of
- 17:17electricity or whatever." Um, then who
- 17:21benefits from this? Well, these guys
- 17:23effectively become monopolies. And all
- 17:26these neoc
- 17:28companies and the memory and the chip
- 17:30guys and so on, they love less demand.
- 17:32But it also means if you're Microsoft or
- 17:34Amazon or Google, you can now justify
- 17:37spending less on chips and memory and
- 17:39data centers because they can't get
- 17:41build. But you're still the guy with the
- 17:43biggest, you know, data center. That's
- 17:45what you're thinking, isn't it? Um, and
- 17:47and therefore, you win, right? It's
- 17:49actually brilliant for them. So, if you
- 17:51were Microsoft or Amazon or Google, what
- 17:53would you have done? You would have
- 17:54funded the Democrats in Texas to your
- 17:57heart's content, right? I don't know if
- 17:59they did that, but that would have been
- 18:00the smart thing to do from a pure money
- 18:01point of view because Texas really
- 18:03matters. Texas has 27% of all planned
- 18:06American data center capacity, says
- 18:08Wellelss Fargo, who also getting
- 18:09clobbered to death yesterday. The new
- 18:11governor said, "We're going to have a
- 18:12moratorum, which is a fancy word for we
- 18:15will all die." No, it's a fancy word for
- 18:17uh we will freeze everything and not
- 18:20approve another one. They also want
- 18:22Georgia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania
- 18:23apparently, and they'll do the same
- 18:25thing there. So Microsoft up 6%, Amazon
- 18:29up 6%, Alphabet up 3%, Meta up 1%. These
- 18:32guys win, chip suppliers lose, the
- 18:34builders lose, Coreweeef, Nebus, Irene,
- 18:37all these, you know, these companies are
- 18:39amazing. Now some of those companies, if
- 18:41you go back into them, they used to mine
- 18:43cryptocurrency about 18 months ago and
- 18:45before that it was whatever the latest
- 18:47thing was. So always be a little bit
- 18:48careful with companies that chase after
- 18:49the latest thing. So some beautiful
- 18:52charts here on on on some of the big
- 18:54tech guys. Um but the chip guys will
- 18:57have to adjust potentially their their
- 18:58future because the chip orders will get
- 19:01spread over a longer period of time
- 19:03which will slow down uh their their
- 19:04growth and and neoclouds
- 19:07um well I've warned about that
- 19:09previously. Uh it's a not where I would
- 19:12put my money. Core we here uh I I trade
- 19:14it sometimes. I make money out of it
- 19:16hopefully. But yeah now there is
- 19:20something that is important. The market
- 19:22overreacts. So
- 19:25always look at if you want to trade
- 19:27something like that which is the least
- 19:29and and the most risky and again that's
- 19:31one of the things we look up in the in
- 19:32the Winston app. So so if you go into
- 19:34stocks look at look at are there any of
- 19:36those in the danger zone and you can go
- 19:39into hey say AI infrastructure and you
- 19:42can look at there are some zombies here
- 19:44call is is a zombie company. What do I
- 19:46mean by that? Well they've got no cash
- 19:50they can't pay their interest. They owe
- 19:533.7 times the value of their company as
- 19:56debt, right? So, yes, they've got a bit
- 19:58of cash in the bank, three billion or
- 19:59so, but that's going to likely run out.
- 20:02So, these companies are the riskiest out
- 20:05there that I would be very, very, very
- 20:07cautious of. And I would look that up
- 20:09actually for every sector and every bit
- 20:11of something that you own because it's
- 20:13important. Again, link down below. Now,
- 20:15quick word on gold. Gold's at the lowest
- 20:18price more or less in a year. Um, I'm
- 20:20quite liking it. Why? Because we've had
- 20:23some serious margin calls on gold. And
- 20:26the more Let me pull up a gold chart for
- 20:28you. And the longer you get these
- 20:31sell-off periods, people get flushed
- 20:33out. So, we started to see the last two
- 20:36days here a little bit of nibbling 3%
- 20:391.7%
- 20:41um on on on gold again on some
- 20:43relatively decent volume. biggest green
- 20:45candle we've seen since uh you know a
- 20:48while since sort of August which was a
- 20:51mini sort of fake breakout there. So the
- 20:54longer these sideways journeys go on for
- 20:58right the longer we do bugger all
- 21:01essentially the better the setup because
- 21:04the people with we wanted to sell
- 21:06already sold right last year that was
- 21:09the setup right so we're now looking at
- 21:11a period that is actually equivalent in
- 21:14terms of length I hope it goes further
- 21:17and more sideways for longer because
- 21:19that will then potentially set up a much
- 21:21much bigger more beautiful more shiny
- 21:23any breakout and gold breakouts are very
- 21:25very shiny. Commerce Bank pay no
- 21:27attention to the lunatics say gold's
- 21:29October reaction was overdone. Now I
- 21:32would trust Commerce Bank about as far
- 21:34as I can throw them. I imagine they're
- 21:35fairly heavy. Um but how does a margin
- 21:38call work? Well, say you um borrowed to
- 21:41buy tech stocks and your tech stocks got
- 21:43clobbered yesterday and they're down
- 21:4410%. Your broker says, "Show me the
- 21:47money." And you haven't got any. So your
- 21:49broker will then say, "Well, sell
- 21:50something or we'll do it for And one of
- 21:52the things that's the fastest to sell,
- 21:53especially on a day like yesterday, was
- 21:55gold because it was going up. So margin
- 21:58calls are a beautiful thing if you're
- 21:59not on them. But this is a lovely chart
- 22:01here and we should credit whoever made
- 22:03it. Uh, whoever Peter Malucas, good on
- 22:06you. Well done on the chart. It's a very
- 22:07good chart. And he said of the last 50
- 22:09years, inflation
- 22:12was 6x. I think it was a lot more, but
- 22:14that's the official government lie,
- 22:16sorry, number. Um, treasury bills went
- 22:18up eight times. The S&P 500 went up 277
- 22:22times. So being invested is the winning
- 22:25path. Now being invested better is
- 22:28better than being invested terribly. So
- 22:31think about that like that poor chap um
- 22:33who is you know losing sleep right now.
- 22:36So be an owner. That's what I would
- 22:40definitely say. And
- 22:43just to summarize why I think this is a
- 22:45wonderful setup, the divided government
- 22:47keeps rules steady as in bug is going to
- 22:50happen in Washington next two years. Uh
- 22:52oil could drop a lot if the appetite for
- 22:57bombing another Middle Eastern country
- 22:58into the dust uh is is a little bit
- 23:01less, you know, pronounced. And
- 23:04historically, the pattern is that we get
- 23:05very very strong years after this kind
- 23:07of election which you may love or loaf.
- 23:09It doesn't really matter. Slight
- 23:11warning, and I would write this down.
- 23:12Funding runs out on the 11th of December
- 23:14for the US government. Uh, expect a a
- 23:16squabble or a wobble. The Fed could
- 23:18raise interest rates in December. The
- 23:20market expects it. Now, if oil comes
- 23:23down, that won't happen. If oil stays
- 23:25up, that is more likely to happen. And
- 23:27beyond the midterms, Congress faces
- 23:29converging year-end deadlines. I don't
- 23:31know what that means, so we'll scroll
- 23:32past it. And uh, yeah, chip stocks are
- 23:35um, under that 200 day moving average
- 23:37line for a reason. So, the market needs
- 23:38to adjust to that. I wouldn't be too
- 23:40early on the dip buying there. Um, and
- 23:42and obviously a Middle Eastern deal is
- 23:44isn't easy because on the one side
- 23:46you've got the commander-in-chief. On
- 23:47the other side, you have the uh um
- 23:50almighty himself, the the Ayatollah.
- 23:53Quite a hard crowd to get to, you know,
- 23:55become reasonable. So, put it all
- 23:58together, energy chip stocks are out.
- 24:01The MAG five or whatever they are are um
- 24:04are doing wonderfully. Uh, gold got
- 24:07dumped by forced sellers. It then
- 24:08bounced. I see that as a good sign. I'm
- 24:10hoping it's going to go sideways for
- 24:11longer. And I think we have an
- 24:14tremendous pivot in the market coming up
- 24:17where no, Nvidia will not go up in a
- 24:19straight line forever after. Um, because
- 24:22people will de more slowly then you know
- 24:24what the whole the whole growth story
- 24:27gets elongated. Um, not clobbered to
- 24:30death but just it's just more gradual,
- 24:32more slow, which the market has to
- 24:33adjust to. So come and learn how this
- 24:36pivots, build your game plan, spot them
- 24:38where the money is moving, and know when
- 24:40to do something about it at
- 24:42greatpivot.org at this s Saturday, the
- 24:467th of November, 9:00 a.m. New York
- 24:48time, 2 p.m. London time, 3 p.m. in
- 24:50Europe, and at ungodly hours everywhere
- 24:53else. The question is just whether you
- 24:54want to learn it. No, there will not be
- 24:56a replay. We don't do those because
- 24:57people don't watch them. It's true. I
- 24:59know you are one exception, but it's
- 25:00just true.
- 25:01the data. So, join us live. You can ask
- 25:03me questions and I'm excited to see you
- 25:05there. And if you got some value out of
- 25:07this, well, share this with a friend.
- 25:09Share the great pivot.org with a friend.
- 25:11And I wish you all the best.
- 25:12>> Right now, I think we're going through
- 25:14some sort of weird phase transition. And
- 25:17normally when you get bad economic news
- 25:20or you get bad jobs data that people are
- 25:22going to fly to safety into the bond
About this transcript
This page contains the full transcript of Get Ready For The BIGGEST Economic Boom Of Your Lifetime! by Felix Nikolas Prehn, generated from the public captions YouTube serves with the video. The transcript has 4,868 words across 683 segments, with the original timestamps preserved so you can click any line to jump to that moment in the embedded player.
What you can do with it
Use the transcript to take notes, quote the speaker, build a study guide, generate a summary with ChatGPT or Claude via the YouTube Summary tool, or export it as a timed subtitle file with YouTube to SRT. You can also re-open it in the transcriber to choose a caption track available on the video.
Free YouTube transcript tool
YouTube2Text is a free YouTube transcript generator — no signup, no daily limit. Paste any YouTube link and get the full transcript instantly, with timestamps, click-to-jump, caption language selection, AI prompts for ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini, and exports to TXT, SRT, VTT, or Markdown.