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Get Ready For The BIGGEST Economic Boom Of Your Lifetime! — Transcript

by Felix Nikolas Prehn · 4,868 words · 683 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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  1. 0:00The biggest rally of our lifetime may
  2. 0:02have just started this week. That's what
  3. 0:04Winston just told me. And it is set off
  4. 0:06by the one thing everybody was told
  5. 0:09would crash the stock market. For
  6. 0:11months, people had warned that this
  7. 0:13exact election result, a Democratic
  8. 0:16sweep would wreck voices and stocks. So,
  9. 0:20they sold. They went to cash. And 90% of
  10. 0:24them are now sitting there waiting for a
  11. 0:27crash. Well, that hasn't really come.
  12. 0:29unless you're one very specific sector.
  13. 0:30And this has happened seven times since
  14. 0:331954. If you've been watching me, you
  15. 0:35already know about this. A Republican
  16. 0:38president loses both halves of Congress
  17. 0:41to Democrats. A year later, every single
  18. 0:44time stocks were higher and this week
  19. 0:48made it the eighth. Wall Street knew the
  20. 0:50Dow has had its best day of the year,
  21. 0:53but the market does not go up as one.
  22. 0:56And maybe some of you are in pain. If
  23. 0:57you're in pain right now, put pain in
  24. 0:58the comments down below. It's all your
  25. 1:00fault, but we'll fix it for you. Because
  26. 1:02while the Dow threw its party, one
  27. 1:05corner got hammered and the stocks
  28. 1:07everybody had piled into for the last
  29. 1:09two years dropped under a line that the
  30. 1:12pros watch harder than almost anything.
  31. 1:14Now, the next thing is annoying, but I
  32. 1:16was positioned for that before the votes
  33. 1:18were counted. I will pull up all of this
  34. 1:20life in a minute, including how far
  35. 1:22stocks ran those seven previous times.
  36. 1:26So stick with me. This one really,
  37. 1:28really does matter. My name is Felix
  38. 1:30Nicholas Pin. I'm an economist and
  39. 1:31former investment banker. I'm also the
  40. 1:33founder of the PIN Institute where we
  41. 1:34publish research on financial markets
  42. 1:36and also instructions on on how they
  43. 1:38actually work. I take zero sponsorships,
  44. 1:41zero endorsements ever. So I can say
  45. 1:43whatever I like and that's just the way
  46. 1:45I like it. And no, this is not a
  47. 1:47political video. I get accused of that
  48. 1:48all the time. I don't care who you voted
  49. 1:50for. Red, blue, green, yellow, whatever.
  50. 1:53It's fine by me. Your money doesn't have
  51. 1:55a party and it shouldn't. So, there's a
  52. 1:58lot of stuff that's moving this week.
  53. 2:00Very, very important to understand the
  54. 2:02election, oil, the chip stocks, gold,
  55. 2:04the lots. I put all of that research
  56. 2:06behind this video into one free report
  57. 2:09from our institute. It's got the full
  58. 2:11table of those seven elections with what
  59. 2:13stocks did one month, three months, six
  60. 2:16months, 12 months later, the sectors
  61. 2:18that have tended to lead after midterms,
  62. 2:20the ones that have lagged, a checklist,
  63. 2:22tons of stuff. It's all free.
  64. 2:24felixfriends.org/boom
  65. 2:26is where you get that. It's down below
  66. 2:28in the description in the link as well.
  67. 2:30And I absolutely love that you're
  68. 2:31watching this because I love people who
  69. 2:32want to learn about how the markets
  70. 2:34really work because in my humble
  71. 2:35opinion, it's the path to freedom. So,
  72. 2:38let's start with the bit everybody gets
  73. 2:40raw. For most this year, you couldn't
  74. 2:42open up social media without someone
  75. 2:43telling you the stock market would
  76. 2:45crash. I may have been guilty of that
  77. 2:47once or twice myself, but once you make
  78. 2:48it past the headline, you'll understand
  79. 2:50what I'm actually talking about. If the
  80. 2:52Democrats took Congress, people were
  81. 2:55saying this, and I saw one post this
  82. 2:56week that put it perfectly. Somebody
  83. 2:58wrote out this line, "The stock market
  84. 3:00will crash when Democrats are elected."
  85. 3:02And underneath it, it said the market,
  86. 3:05and it showed a chart of a dollar
  87. 3:06invested in American stocks since 1926.
  88. 3:09Well, have a look at the red presidents
  89. 3:11on this chart. It's on the screen here.
  90. 3:13Blue president. And what happens? Well,
  91. 3:15the line just goes up and up and up and
  92. 3:19up. Nearly a hundred years of it.
  93. 3:21Then the results came in. Democrats took
  94. 3:23the House and the Senate. And the next
  95. 3:25day, the Dow Jones, which tracks 30 of
  96. 3:27America's biggest, oldest, shiniest
  97. 3:30companies, went up 3%. That's 1500
  98. 3:33points. Best day of the year. The S&P,
  99. 3:36America's 500 biggest companies, went up
  100. 3:391.6%. And the NASDAQ, which is stuffed
  101. 3:41with those technology companies, was up
  102. 3:431.4%. So, who got hurt? Well, not the
  103. 3:47people who did nothing for once. The
  104. 3:49people who got hurt are the ones who did
  105. 3:51something. They sold in October and they
  106. 3:53went into cash because they got scared
  107. 3:55and now they got a terrible choice. Buy
  108. 3:57back in higher or sit and watch. There's
  109. 4:00a second group that also got hurt and
  110. 4:02they don't even know it yet. Say you're,
  111. 4:04you know, 50 years old. You did
  112. 4:06everything right. You put your money in
  113. 4:07a big fund years ago and you got on with
  114. 4:09your life. You worked hard. Well, look
  115. 4:11at your fund this week and it probably
  116. 4:12looks fine because the index went up,
  117. 4:15but underneath it was carnage in places.
  118. 4:19Energy stocks down over 6%. This is a
  119. 4:21sector rotation thing you can track in
  120. 4:23the Winston app. Links down below, free
  121. 4:25trial and all that you don't like if you
  122. 4:26cancel it. So, the chip stocks also fell
  123. 4:30through a line the professionals treat
  124. 4:32as the difference between an uptrend and
  125. 4:35a downtrend. And I put it on the screen
  126. 4:37here for you. This is SMH, which is the
  127. 4:39semiconductor index fund. the sort of
  128. 4:40major one and there's the line on here
  129. 4:42which is blue right and I have to check
  130. 4:45the glasses make it green and um it's
  131. 4:47it's my version of you know LSD it's
  132. 4:50it's it's healthier for you and um that
  133. 4:53200 day moving average line which is
  134. 4:54what that is we've just dropped below it
  135. 4:56was the last time we did that well we
  136. 4:59last did that in April 2025
  137. 5:02which was actually a pretty good buying
  138. 5:05opportunity if you go back to it right
  139. 5:06the previous time we did that
  140. 5:08meaningfully was in September mber or
  141. 5:10rather sort of early 2022, right? It was
  142. 5:13trading at 84, then it's trading at 498
  143. 5:15right now. Again, I'm not telling you to
  144. 5:17buy this. I'm just saying these little
  145. 5:18dips have historically been pretty good.
  146. 5:21Why? Because the world actually runs on
  147. 5:23semiconductors whether you like them or
  148. 5:25not. So, what went up? Well, consumer
  149. 5:28discretionary, consumer staples, real
  150. 5:31estate, financials, healthcare. These
  151. 5:34went up against more than the index,
  152. 5:36right? If you look at the absolute
  153. 5:37returns, they did even better. But I
  154. 5:39always like to go look at compare it
  155. 5:40against the index because that's kind of
  156. 5:42tells me a lot more about where the
  157. 5:43money is really flowing. But you can see
  158. 5:45some big beautiful winners and some
  159. 5:47pretty horrendous losers. But remember
  160. 5:49the market overreacts both ways every
  161. 5:52time. It overreacted to the fear in
  162. 5:55October. Some corners overreacted this
  163. 5:57week in my humble opinion. And if you
  164. 5:59can't tell which bit is the
  165. 6:00overreaction, you end up selling the
  166. 6:02bottom on the one thing and holding the
  167. 6:05top on another. And it's never really
  168. 6:06very much fun. And spotting that is a
  169. 6:08skill, a skill that can be definitely
  170. 6:11learned. So think about where that
  171. 6:13leaves you right now. Your money is
  172. 6:15sitting in a market that just changed
  173. 6:17leadership in 24 hours. Oil fell 8% in a
  174. 6:20day. Energy got thrown out of the window
  175. 6:23with a baby in the bathroom water,
  176. 6:24right? Um which is good for me because I
  177. 6:26made money out of it. But the chip
  178. 6:28stocks that carried the whole market for
  179. 6:29two years, they're like beaten up and
  180. 6:32crying in the corner. And at the same
  181. 6:34time, the shops, the banks, the big
  182. 6:37platforms that own the data centers were
  183. 6:39bid apart. I explain to you why that
  184. 6:41happened. But if your money is in the
  185. 6:44wrong pot, and these are just
  186. 6:4712 of these pots. They're actually about
  187. 6:49150 in total, but this is just a
  188. 6:51simplification. Well, it doesn't really
  189. 6:53matter how good the index looks. You
  190. 6:54lose. You lose slowly, and you don't
  191. 6:56notice until, you know, your retirement
  192. 6:58gets pushed back by a few years. In my
  193. 7:00humble opinion, the window on this is
  194. 7:02short. Look at those seven elections
  195. 7:04again in a minute and I'll and you will
  196. 7:06see the biggest part of the move came in
  197. 7:07the first three months. On average,
  198. 7:09stocks were up more than 10% within
  199. 7:13three months of that vote. I'm not
  200. 7:14promising you that I haven't got a
  201. 7:16crystal ball, but that's the historic
  202. 7:18pattern. The clock started ticking on
  203. 7:20Tuesday. Spotting where the money is
  204. 7:22going next is a skill, a skill you were
  205. 7:25never taught because school and college
  206. 7:27is largely useless when it comes to
  207. 7:29money. So, our whole mission here is to
  208. 7:33write that wrong. So, this Saturday, the
  209. 7:357th of November, I'm going to teach you
  210. 7:37live and for free. And I call it the
  211. 7:39great pivot because the money pivots
  212. 7:41from chips into something else. It's at
  213. 7:459:00 a.m. New York time, 2 p.m. London
  214. 7:47time, 300 p.m. If you live on the Soviet
  215. 7:50continent of Europe, uh if you're in
  216. 7:52Asia or down under, you're going to have
  217. 7:53to figure out what time it is. You may
  218. 7:54have to be up a little bit late and ask
  219. 7:56for parents permission. And our goal
  220. 7:58there is to leave you with a game plan
  221. 8:01for not just this market but for every
  222. 8:03market to come so that you are more
  223. 8:05skilled. Not a stock tip list but make
  224. 8:08you more skilled. So on Saturday I'll
  225. 8:11show you exactly how I worked out what
  226. 8:13was actually going to happen here. And
  227. 8:14I'm not always right. Absolutely not.
  228. 8:17But the point is not to be horribly
  229. 8:18wrong. And if you just learn that you're
  230. 8:20going to do a lot better. So join us at
  231. 8:22greatpivot.org. Link is down in the
  232. 8:24description down below. Dualingo stock
  233. 8:27is flying by the way. Apparently
  234. 8:28everyone's going to learn Spanish in the
  235. 8:30US.
  236. 8:32Uh so back to those seven elections.
  237. 8:36This is a chart from
  238. 8:38I don't know who. Um looks a bit like
  239. 8:40the FT but it's probably AI. Um it shows
  240. 8:44every time since 1954 that a Republican
  241. 8:46president has lost Congress to the
  242. 8:48Democrats at midterms. 1954 and 1958
  243. 8:51that was Eisenhower. 70 was Nixon. 74
  244. 8:54was Ford. 86 was Reagan 90 under the you
  245. 8:57know Bush the the primary uh and then
  246. 9:002006 under Bush the secondary and that
  247. 9:03happened seven times. So it also shows
  248. 9:04what the S&P did afterwards. That's what
  249. 9:06these little bars are. One month later
  250. 9:092% up on average. 3 months later 10% up
  251. 9:13on average. 6 months later 17% up on
  252. 9:16average. And a year later 15% up on
  253. 9:18average. Positive all seven times. And
  254. 9:21that's pretty extraordinary, isn't it?
  255. 9:2315% in a year on average after the exact
  256. 9:25results that some of you are celebrating
  257. 9:27and some of you are terrified of
  258. 9:28depending on what side of the aisle you
  259. 9:30happen to wake up. And Trump is now the
  260. 9:32eighth president on this list. And it
  261. 9:36isn't just me putting this out. JP
  262. 9:38Morgan, the mighty, their market
  263. 9:40intelligence team, which apparently is
  264. 9:42the most intelligent team in the world.
  265. 9:43Just ask them, they'll tell you. They
  266. 9:45put out a note this week and they say
  267. 9:47the S&P 500 has been up a year after
  268. 9:49every single midterm election since
  269. 9:511950. who ever won with an average gain
  270. 9:54of around 15% which is what I just
  271. 9:55talked to and since 1990 they've broken
  272. 9:58it down even further. Here it is three
  273. 10:00months after the midterms 5% up six
  274. 10:03months after 11% up 9 months after 12%
  275. 10:06up a year after 14% up and so on. So
  276. 10:08it's been up every single time since
  277. 10:101990. So why why would Wall Street cheer
  278. 10:14a government that can't agree on
  279. 10:16anything because that's what's going to
  280. 10:17happen. But let me put it in in in in as
  281. 10:20plain English as I can. When the White
  282. 10:22House and Congress are run by different
  283. 10:24parties, almost nothing big gets done.
  284. 10:28Taxes stay where they are. Regulation
  285. 10:30doesn't really change. It's like having
  286. 10:33well gridlock. And guess what? The
  287. 10:36market loves gridlock. The more
  288. 10:38gridlocked your government, the better
  289. 10:40the stock market. Why? Because it's
  290. 10:41predictable. We know nothing big's going
  291. 10:44to happen. No bright shiny ideas, no
  292. 10:47new, you know, let's save the world type
  293. 10:49things. Um, wonderful. If you're an
  294. 10:51investor and maybe you think it's
  295. 10:53terrible because you really wanted your
  296. 10:54party to do something particularly
  297. 10:56special, but you know what? The stock
  298. 10:58market, your money doesn't care for
  299. 11:01special or any kind of change. The right
  300. 11:04now the constant is just about good
  301. 11:06enough. Now, is there an exception to
  302. 11:08this? Yes. Ford 1974, we were down 10
  303. 11:11months 10% a month later, 18% up a year
  304. 11:14higher. Why? It was high oil and sticky
  305. 11:17inflation. And there's of course some
  306. 11:18parallels to what's happening in the
  307. 11:20Middle East there. So pay attention to
  308. 11:21that. And Reagan just did a well it was
  309. 11:24up a percent later because we had the
  310. 11:261987 crash. So this does not say be
  311. 11:30blind everything is going to go up in a
  312. 11:32straight line by the way. Right? Always
  313. 11:34invest and trade with a plan. But let me
  314. 11:36just break down one or two more of these
  315. 11:39rotations because it's so important that
  316. 11:40here's that table again I was just
  317. 11:42showing you. And it's really really
  318. 11:45personal to you and your portfolio
  319. 11:47because the market is not one market. It
  320. 11:50doesn't go up as one. Right? Look at the
  321. 11:52sector rotation again. It splits the
  322. 11:54American stock market into its 11 big
  323. 11:56sectors and it shows which ones are
  324. 11:58leading and which ones are lagging. And
  325. 11:59I've got it set to just one day last
  326. 12:02day, right? Day after election. And I
  327. 12:05compare it against the S&P 500 here. And
  328. 12:09energy went down over 6% against the
  329. 12:11market in the singleton. So the energy
  330. 12:13sector, which is an index fund called
  331. 12:15XLE, fell like just under 5% that day.
  332. 12:18The S&P went up 1.5% that day. So, you
  333. 12:21know, there you are. Industrials were
  334. 12:23down, technology was down, utilities
  335. 12:26were down. Meanwhile, the money poured
  336. 12:27into shops, restaurants, consumer
  337. 12:29discretionary, the stuff people buy when
  338. 12:31they feel good for the same day, same
  339. 12:34market, and the gap between the best
  340. 12:36sector and the worst sector was almost 9
  341. 12:38percentage points. And that's what I
  342. 12:40mean when I say money doesn't leave the
  343. 12:42market. It moves from one pot to
  344. 12:44another. So, why did energy get hit so
  345. 12:46hard? Well, oil Brent crude the global
  346. 12:48oil price fell 8% in a day. Why? Because
  347. 12:51people will think that Trump has less
  348. 12:55backing to continue the Middle East war
  349. 12:58because he has just less sort of
  350. 13:00political cloud right now, right? And
  351. 13:02here is that actual chart and you can
  352. 13:03see the the harsh pullback. You can see
  353. 13:06this consumer discretionary which is
  354. 13:08absolutely flying. So, what did I do
  355. 13:10before this election? Well, I was short
  356. 13:12energy and I was long most other things.
  357. 13:14Uh, doesn't really matter what I do, but
  358. 13:17maybe take a screenshot of this one here
  359. 13:19because this is actually quite
  360. 13:20important. A year after midterms, again,
  361. 13:23this is JP Morgan data, you know, hail
  362. 13:25the the mighty uh and and all that.
  363. 13:27There really are wonderful people, the
  364. 13:29best people in the world. Absolutely.
  365. 13:30You know, cure cancer and everything
  366. 13:32else that just in it for the little man
  367. 13:34and then saving humankind and you know,
  368. 13:36that kind of thing, which probably makes
  369. 13:37me get away with using that charts. Um,
  370. 13:39so yes, the index did well, 15% up
  371. 13:43almost on the year, but look at consumer
  372. 13:46staples. They were down 8% on the year.
  373. 13:47Energy was down 5% on the year. Real
  374. 13:50estate was down 6% a year. Utilities
  375. 13:51went on 8% on the year. So, it wasn't
  376. 13:53bloody equal, was it? It wasn't all the
  377. 13:55same. So, if you potentially want to
  378. 13:58outperform, you might need to understand
  379. 14:00at least these 11 sectors and what it
  380. 14:03moves them and why. I think oil is
  381. 14:05really the one to watch. Let's see what
  382. 14:06the American buildup in the Middle East
  383. 14:08is doing, whether we're going to see
  384. 14:09another, you know, bombardment or
  385. 14:11whether it's the final fireworks or or
  386. 14:14whatever. We'll see. And that'll
  387. 14:15obviously have an impact. But if you are
  388. 14:18like many people just purely in chip
  389. 14:21stocks, and this popped up in my Twitter
  390. 14:24feed, and I don't know who this guy is,
  391. 14:26no diss him whatsoever, but he says, "We
  392. 14:29are effed. Absolutely effed. The AI
  393. 14:31trade is over. We all top blasted and
  394. 14:34holding bags now. I can't believe it.
  395. 14:35How could we have been so wrong? This
  396. 14:37market makes no sense. My spleen hurts.
  397. 14:39I haven't seen green in such a long
  398. 14:41time. I miss money. I miss smiling. I
  399. 14:43miss sleeping, not checking my phone
  400. 14:44every one minute. I miss waking up
  401. 14:46happy. I should have stayed in cash. Um
  402. 14:49the problem is that this chap
  403. 14:51unfortunately gives you real-time
  404. 14:52alerts, those trades, and presumably
  405. 14:54there's a payment for that. the delight
  406. 14:57and and I guess imagine that this is his
  407. 14:59portfolio yesterday which is basically a
  408. 15:03pure bet on pure AI, right? Which is
  409. 15:09just unfortunate. I feel very sorry for
  410. 15:12the chat, but he doesn't realize that
  411. 15:15there is a world out there that isn't
  412. 15:18AI. He doesn't realize the healthcare
  413. 15:20stocks, real estate stocks, consumer
  414. 15:22staple stocks, material stocks, really
  415. 15:24boring crap that would have shielded him
  416. 15:27from this horrible thing that's now
  417. 15:28making him lose sleep. And my goal is
  418. 15:31that less and less people will make
  419. 15:35those mistakes because yes,
  420. 15:37semiconductors got clobbered like a baby
  421. 15:40seal. That's a professional Wall Street
  422. 15:42term by the way, not mine. It's a very
  423. 15:44nice term, is it? Um but um if you bet
  424. 15:48all your money on one thing and if
  425. 15:50you're feeling some pain right now, use
  426. 15:52it as a lesson. Use it as a motivation
  427. 15:54to not do it again. Because this chap I
  428. 15:57just showed you clearly hasn't learned
  429. 15:58the lesson because he then rambles on
  430. 16:00about how hedge funds manipulate the
  431. 16:03market and and and you know all that
  432. 16:04sort of stuff. Doesn't for a second
  433. 16:06think that he might have a skill gap and
  434. 16:08that he's actually to blame for it.
  435. 16:10Right? I'm always to blame for all my
  436. 16:12losses. I'm also to blame for my
  437. 16:14winners. And it's the same for you. If
  438. 16:15you want to take credit for the winners,
  439. 16:17you need to take credit for the losses.
  440. 16:19And if you have outsized losses, and
  441. 16:21outsized simply means you are checking
  442. 16:23your phone every 5 minutes, you're not
  443. 16:25sleeping well, you're thinking about it,
  444. 16:26and you're not a happy person, you've
  445. 16:29got too much risk on, right? So, we need
  446. 16:31to do something about that. So, come and
  447. 16:32join us on on on Saturday and we'll
  448. 16:34we'll we'll fix that for you. And quite
  449. 16:37honestly, I think we're nearing a point
  450. 16:38where semiconductors are becoming an
  451. 16:40opportunity again and I will I will
  452. 16:42then, you know, buy them again. um not
  453. 16:44quite yet but I will at some point. But
  454. 16:47the real play, this is really what I
  455. 16:49wanted to understand is there were a lot
  456. 16:51of stocks that did really well in the
  457. 16:53last day. And who was it? It was Amazon.
  458. 16:56It was it was Google. It was um
  459. 16:59Microsoft. Why? Because these are the
  460. 17:02guys with the biggest data centers on
  461. 17:04the planet and they're already built.
  462. 17:06They've already got power. And if we're
  463. 17:09now entering a world where US now
  464. 17:12democratic states like Texas will say,
  465. 17:15"No, we're not going to build as many
  466. 17:16data centers because we're short of
  467. 17:17electricity or whatever." Um, then who
  468. 17:21benefits from this? Well, these guys
  469. 17:23effectively become monopolies. And all
  470. 17:26these neoc
  471. 17:28companies and the memory and the chip
  472. 17:30guys and so on, they love less demand.
  473. 17:32But it also means if you're Microsoft or
  474. 17:34Amazon or Google, you can now justify
  475. 17:37spending less on chips and memory and
  476. 17:39data centers because they can't get
  477. 17:41build. But you're still the guy with the
  478. 17:43biggest, you know, data center. That's
  479. 17:45what you're thinking, isn't it? Um, and
  480. 17:47and therefore, you win, right? It's
  481. 17:49actually brilliant for them. So, if you
  482. 17:51were Microsoft or Amazon or Google, what
  483. 17:53would you have done? You would have
  484. 17:54funded the Democrats in Texas to your
  485. 17:57heart's content, right? I don't know if
  486. 17:59they did that, but that would have been
  487. 18:00the smart thing to do from a pure money
  488. 18:01point of view because Texas really
  489. 18:03matters. Texas has 27% of all planned
  490. 18:06American data center capacity, says
  491. 18:08Wellelss Fargo, who also getting
  492. 18:09clobbered to death yesterday. The new
  493. 18:11governor said, "We're going to have a
  494. 18:12moratorum, which is a fancy word for we
  495. 18:15will all die." No, it's a fancy word for
  496. 18:17uh we will freeze everything and not
  497. 18:20approve another one. They also want
  498. 18:22Georgia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania
  499. 18:23apparently, and they'll do the same
  500. 18:25thing there. So Microsoft up 6%, Amazon
  501. 18:29up 6%, Alphabet up 3%, Meta up 1%. These
  502. 18:32guys win, chip suppliers lose, the
  503. 18:34builders lose, Coreweeef, Nebus, Irene,
  504. 18:37all these, you know, these companies are
  505. 18:39amazing. Now some of those companies, if
  506. 18:41you go back into them, they used to mine
  507. 18:43cryptocurrency about 18 months ago and
  508. 18:45before that it was whatever the latest
  509. 18:47thing was. So always be a little bit
  510. 18:48careful with companies that chase after
  511. 18:49the latest thing. So some beautiful
  512. 18:52charts here on on on some of the big
  513. 18:54tech guys. Um but the chip guys will
  514. 18:57have to adjust potentially their their
  515. 18:58future because the chip orders will get
  516. 19:01spread over a longer period of time
  517. 19:03which will slow down uh their their
  518. 19:04growth and and neoclouds
  519. 19:07um well I've warned about that
  520. 19:09previously. Uh it's a not where I would
  521. 19:12put my money. Core we here uh I I trade
  522. 19:14it sometimes. I make money out of it
  523. 19:16hopefully. But yeah now there is
  524. 19:20something that is important. The market
  525. 19:22overreacts. So
  526. 19:25always look at if you want to trade
  527. 19:27something like that which is the least
  528. 19:29and and the most risky and again that's
  529. 19:31one of the things we look up in the in
  530. 19:32the Winston app. So so if you go into
  531. 19:34stocks look at look at are there any of
  532. 19:36those in the danger zone and you can go
  533. 19:39into hey say AI infrastructure and you
  534. 19:42can look at there are some zombies here
  535. 19:44call is is a zombie company. What do I
  536. 19:46mean by that? Well they've got no cash
  537. 19:50they can't pay their interest. They owe
  538. 19:533.7 times the value of their company as
  539. 19:56debt, right? So, yes, they've got a bit
  540. 19:58of cash in the bank, three billion or
  541. 19:59so, but that's going to likely run out.
  542. 20:02So, these companies are the riskiest out
  543. 20:05there that I would be very, very, very
  544. 20:07cautious of. And I would look that up
  545. 20:09actually for every sector and every bit
  546. 20:11of something that you own because it's
  547. 20:13important. Again, link down below. Now,
  548. 20:15quick word on gold. Gold's at the lowest
  549. 20:18price more or less in a year. Um, I'm
  550. 20:20quite liking it. Why? Because we've had
  551. 20:23some serious margin calls on gold. And
  552. 20:26the more Let me pull up a gold chart for
  553. 20:28you. And the longer you get these
  554. 20:31sell-off periods, people get flushed
  555. 20:33out. So, we started to see the last two
  556. 20:36days here a little bit of nibbling 3%
  557. 20:391.7%
  558. 20:41um on on on gold again on some
  559. 20:43relatively decent volume. biggest green
  560. 20:45candle we've seen since uh you know a
  561. 20:48while since sort of August which was a
  562. 20:51mini sort of fake breakout there. So the
  563. 20:54longer these sideways journeys go on for
  564. 20:58right the longer we do bugger all
  565. 21:01essentially the better the setup because
  566. 21:04the people with we wanted to sell
  567. 21:06already sold right last year that was
  568. 21:09the setup right so we're now looking at
  569. 21:11a period that is actually equivalent in
  570. 21:14terms of length I hope it goes further
  571. 21:17and more sideways for longer because
  572. 21:19that will then potentially set up a much
  573. 21:21much bigger more beautiful more shiny
  574. 21:23any breakout and gold breakouts are very
  575. 21:25very shiny. Commerce Bank pay no
  576. 21:27attention to the lunatics say gold's
  577. 21:29October reaction was overdone. Now I
  578. 21:32would trust Commerce Bank about as far
  579. 21:34as I can throw them. I imagine they're
  580. 21:35fairly heavy. Um but how does a margin
  581. 21:38call work? Well, say you um borrowed to
  582. 21:41buy tech stocks and your tech stocks got
  583. 21:43clobbered yesterday and they're down
  584. 21:4410%. Your broker says, "Show me the
  585. 21:47money." And you haven't got any. So your
  586. 21:49broker will then say, "Well, sell
  587. 21:50something or we'll do it for And one of
  588. 21:52the things that's the fastest to sell,
  589. 21:53especially on a day like yesterday, was
  590. 21:55gold because it was going up. So margin
  591. 21:58calls are a beautiful thing if you're
  592. 21:59not on them. But this is a lovely chart
  593. 22:01here and we should credit whoever made
  594. 22:03it. Uh, whoever Peter Malucas, good on
  595. 22:06you. Well done on the chart. It's a very
  596. 22:07good chart. And he said of the last 50
  597. 22:09years, inflation
  598. 22:12was 6x. I think it was a lot more, but
  599. 22:14that's the official government lie,
  600. 22:16sorry, number. Um, treasury bills went
  601. 22:18up eight times. The S&P 500 went up 277
  602. 22:22times. So being invested is the winning
  603. 22:25path. Now being invested better is
  604. 22:28better than being invested terribly. So
  605. 22:31think about that like that poor chap um
  606. 22:33who is you know losing sleep right now.
  607. 22:36So be an owner. That's what I would
  608. 22:40definitely say. And
  609. 22:43just to summarize why I think this is a
  610. 22:45wonderful setup, the divided government
  611. 22:47keeps rules steady as in bug is going to
  612. 22:50happen in Washington next two years. Uh
  613. 22:52oil could drop a lot if the appetite for
  614. 22:57bombing another Middle Eastern country
  615. 22:58into the dust uh is is a little bit
  616. 23:01less, you know, pronounced. And
  617. 23:04historically, the pattern is that we get
  618. 23:05very very strong years after this kind
  619. 23:07of election which you may love or loaf.
  620. 23:09It doesn't really matter. Slight
  621. 23:11warning, and I would write this down.
  622. 23:12Funding runs out on the 11th of December
  623. 23:14for the US government. Uh, expect a a
  624. 23:16squabble or a wobble. The Fed could
  625. 23:18raise interest rates in December. The
  626. 23:20market expects it. Now, if oil comes
  627. 23:23down, that won't happen. If oil stays
  628. 23:25up, that is more likely to happen. And
  629. 23:27beyond the midterms, Congress faces
  630. 23:29converging year-end deadlines. I don't
  631. 23:31know what that means, so we'll scroll
  632. 23:32past it. And uh, yeah, chip stocks are
  633. 23:35um, under that 200 day moving average
  634. 23:37line for a reason. So, the market needs
  635. 23:38to adjust to that. I wouldn't be too
  636. 23:40early on the dip buying there. Um, and
  637. 23:42and obviously a Middle Eastern deal is
  638. 23:44isn't easy because on the one side
  639. 23:46you've got the commander-in-chief. On
  640. 23:47the other side, you have the uh um
  641. 23:50almighty himself, the the Ayatollah.
  642. 23:53Quite a hard crowd to get to, you know,
  643. 23:55become reasonable. So, put it all
  644. 23:58together, energy chip stocks are out.
  645. 24:01The MAG five or whatever they are are um
  646. 24:04are doing wonderfully. Uh, gold got
  647. 24:07dumped by forced sellers. It then
  648. 24:08bounced. I see that as a good sign. I'm
  649. 24:10hoping it's going to go sideways for
  650. 24:11longer. And I think we have an
  651. 24:14tremendous pivot in the market coming up
  652. 24:17where no, Nvidia will not go up in a
  653. 24:19straight line forever after. Um, because
  654. 24:22people will de more slowly then you know
  655. 24:24what the whole the whole growth story
  656. 24:27gets elongated. Um, not clobbered to
  657. 24:30death but just it's just more gradual,
  658. 24:32more slow, which the market has to
  659. 24:33adjust to. So come and learn how this
  660. 24:36pivots, build your game plan, spot them
  661. 24:38where the money is moving, and know when
  662. 24:40to do something about it at
  663. 24:42greatpivot.org at this s Saturday, the
  664. 24:467th of November, 9:00 a.m. New York
  665. 24:48time, 2 p.m. London time, 3 p.m. in
  666. 24:50Europe, and at ungodly hours everywhere
  667. 24:53else. The question is just whether you
  668. 24:54want to learn it. No, there will not be
  669. 24:56a replay. We don't do those because
  670. 24:57people don't watch them. It's true. I
  671. 24:59know you are one exception, but it's
  672. 25:00just true.
  673. 25:01the data. So, join us live. You can ask
  674. 25:03me questions and I'm excited to see you
  675. 25:05there. And if you got some value out of
  676. 25:07this, well, share this with a friend.
  677. 25:09Share the great pivot.org with a friend.
  678. 25:11And I wish you all the best.
  679. 25:12>> Right now, I think we're going through
  680. 25:14some sort of weird phase transition. And
  681. 25:17normally when you get bad economic news
  682. 25:20or you get bad jobs data that people are
  683. 25:22going to fly to safety into the bond

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