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GCI World 2026 September Session7 Competition Part — Transcript

by GCI World (Matsuo-Iwasawa Lab) · 4,752 words · 847 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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  1. 0:00Right, so let's get into the
  2. 0:02competition. So, um as you know, the
  3. 0:05competition is about creating your own
  4. 0:07predictive model.
  5. 0:08Um sorry that it is old, but so um this
  6. 0:12is basically through uh
  7. 0:14we we In the competition, you're
  8. 0:16required to do exploratory data
  9. 0:19analysis, meaning that you you would you
  10. 0:20need to analyze the data um
  11. 0:23and understand what the data set is
  12. 0:26about. You need to then create your own
  13. 0:28machine learning model, and then you
  14. 0:30need to write fully evaluate it and sort
  15. 0:32of improve your model
  16. 0:34um and aim for a higher score.
  17. 0:37Um just as a reminder, um
  18. 0:41the competition is sort of in the core
  19. 0:43um course completion requirements.
  20. 0:46So, if you are aiming for a standard
  21. 0:48completion, um the in-class competition
  22. 0:51is optional. So, it means that even if
  23. 0:54you don't participate at all, you will
  24. 0:56still get a standard completion.
  25. 1:00However, if you are aiming for either
  26. 1:03the honors or outstanding completion,
  27. 1:06you will need to participate in the
  28. 1:09competition
  29. 1:11and get in the higher rankings.
  30. 1:14Right? Um the the final assignment that
  31. 1:17we will that we will cover in the latter
  32. 1:19half of today's session, this is
  33. 1:22mandatory for any kind of completion,
  34. 1:25but the the in-class competition, this
  35. 1:28is op- optional for if you want if
  36. 1:30you're just aiming for standard
  37. 1:31completion.
  38. 1:33Right?
  39. 1:34Um
  40. 1:35so and then yeah, so the competition is
  41. 1:39So, you'll be working on the Home Credit
  42. 1:42Default Risk competition. This was
  43. 1:44originally held on Kaggle back in 20 18.
  44. 1:48Um and then your your task is to create
  45. 1:50a machine learning model that best
  46. 1:52predicts the probability of default for
  47. 1:55each applicant. So,
  48. 1:57imagine that you're um you
  49. 2:00you are
  50. 2:02you know, you you you you you you
  51. 2:04So, the data set is about your clients
  52. 2:06like their attributes such as their
  53. 2:08income or where they live etc. And then
  54. 2:12your task is to create a machine
  55. 2:14learning model that predicts whether
  56. 2:17the client is going to default on their
  57. 2:19loan.
  58. 2:22So, how to do this? Um so so how to get
  59. 2:24started? So, I'll first walk through
  60. 2:26using the slides and then I'll show you
  61. 2:29I'll actually show you um
  62. 2:32you know, how to do it as well. So, so
  63. 2:34first of all, you will need to go to the
  64. 2:37student drive and then you need to go
  65. 2:39into the competition folder
  66. 2:41and download the competition folder to
  67. 2:43your local PC.
  68. 2:45Um you know, and then
  69. 2:48you know, you can click either this more
  70. 2:50button here or click right click and
  71. 2:52then click download. Either way, since
  72. 2:55this is a folder, it's going to it
  73. 2:57should download as a zip file.
  74. 3:02All right.
  75. 3:03And then the next thing is that you will
  76. 3:05need to unzip
  77. 3:06the zip file that you just downloaded.
  78. 3:10By unzipping, it's going to show you it
  79. 3:12competition you know, it's
  80. 3:14it's going to the zip file is going to
  81. 3:16unzip into a folder
  82. 3:19that named competition.
  83. 3:21And you will need to then upload
  84. 3:24the competition folder to your Google
  85. 3:26Drive.
  86. 3:27This can be anywhere in your
  87. 3:30Google Drive but you you you will need
  88. 3:34to remember where you placed the zip
  89. 3:36file.
  90. 3:41Right.
  91. 3:42And then
  92. 3:43first thing is to
  93. 3:45um click the Jupiter notebook inside the
  94. 3:48competition folder
  95. 3:50um and
  96. 3:52the notebook inside it is basically it's
  97. 3:55your base line model meaning that
  98. 3:57if you run it for you know, if you run
  99. 3:59it entire from the beginning to the end
  100. 4:02you have your first machine learning
  101. 4:04model that's already working.
  102. 4:07Um you will need So, as I said earlier,
  103. 4:10there's one thing There's one place that
  104. 4:12you need to sort of change according to
  105. 4:16where you place your notebook.
  106. 4:19So, you need to change the path that
  107. 4:22points to the directory so that it So,
  108. 4:24it So, you need to change the path so
  109. 4:26that it points to whichever folder that
  110. 4:30you uploaded the competition folder.
  111. 4:35And then you run all the cells in the
  112. 4:37baseline to create and it's going to
  113. 4:39create your a submission.csv
  114. 4:41So, sub- submission.csv. So, it's going
  115. 4:44to create a CSV file.
  116. 4:48Once you have the CSV file, you will
  117. 4:51need to then Again, you need to download
  118. 4:54the submission.csv.
  119. 4:58And submit on on the campus.
  120. 5:03So, you go to
  121. 5:04You click competition, you click the
  122. 5:06submit CSV file button,
  123. 5:09and then click submit button,
  124. 5:11and you You're now officially in the
  125. 5:14competition.
  126. 5:17Right? So, that's all the steps that you
  127. 5:19need to do to join the competition.
  128. 5:23Right? So, let's actually
  129. 5:26um
  130. 5:27review them one by one. So, first thing
  131. 5:29you need to go to this the student
  132. 5:31folder, right?
  133. 5:32So, this is the student folder that we
  134. 5:34have. And then inside, you know, we have
  135. 5:37the lecture materials I think that
  136. 5:38you're
  137. 5:40you access every week, but you know, you
  138. 5:42know, you go to the 04 competition
  139. 5:45folder.
  140. 5:49And then inside it you see You can see
  141. 5:50that there's this advanced techniques
  142. 5:52folder, which I'll explain later, and
  143. 5:54then you have the competition folder,
  144. 5:56and also the comp- competition tutorial.
  145. 5:59So, this competition tutorial, this also
  146. 6:02has all the details you need to know
  147. 6:04about So, so what I'm explaining right
  148. 6:06now, you can find this in the
  149. 6:08competition tutorial PDF
  150. 6:12Right? So, what you need to do, you need
  151. 6:14to download this competition folder,
  152. 6:16right?
  153. 6:31A while this is downloading
  154. 6:41Okay.
  155. 6:42Yeah, so now I have my competition
  156. 6:44folder.
  157. 6:46So, now I'm going to unzip this.
  158. 6:52So, now I can you can see that I have my
  159. 6:55unzipped folder here.
  160. 6:58See?
  161. 7:01So, now I'm going to do is I'm going to
  162. 7:02my I go to my
  163. 7:05Google Drive
  164. 7:07and inside my Google Drive my My Drive,
  165. 7:10I have a folder named GCI.
  166. 7:13So, I am just going to let me just
  167. 7:17change this to competition. Okay.
  168. 7:21Let's change the Okay.
  169. 7:23Yeah, I'm just going to
  170. 7:25upload this entire folder
  171. 7:28to my Google Drive.
  172. 7:34It's going to take a bit of a while.
  173. 7:39Um
  174. 7:42Yeah. Yeah.
  175. 7:44Yeah, so I will answer to your questions
  176. 7:47a bit later, but in the meantime you can
  177. 7:50send the questions and then I
  178. 7:53and I will answer them.
  179. 7:55I'll I'll be looking through, but I'll
  180. 7:57take time later on to answer.
  181. 8:01It's going to take a while
  182. 8:03um
  183. 8:05for you to
  184. 8:11upload this.
  185. 8:20So,
  186. 8:29this should finish in maybe 5 more
  187. 8:31seconds.
  188. 8:37Right. So, now I have my competition
  189. 8:39folder. I'm just going to
  190. 8:43rename the competition. So, inside my
  191. 8:45Google Drive, my My Drive, I have this
  192. 8:47GCI folder folder. And then inside my
  193. 8:50GCI folder, I have the competition.
  194. 8:54And inside this, you can see that
  195. 8:56there's
  196. 8:57one one folder that says input, and then
  197. 9:00one Excel file, a readme notebook, and a
  198. 9:03tutorial.
  199. 9:06The readme has all the
  200. 9:09It says that all all the rules, so
  201. 9:11please take a look at this.
  202. 9:15Um yeah, and then but for today, I will
  203. 9:18go through the tutorial very
  204. 9:21quickly.
  205. 9:31So,
  206. 9:32you will need to go through the tutorial
  207. 9:34So,
  208. 9:35how to go through the tutorial? So, you
  209. 9:37can just run this to import the cells,
  210. 9:40import the libraries.
  211. 9:42And then the second cell, by running the
  212. 9:44second cell, you're going to connect
  213. 9:46your Google Drive with the
  214. 9:48Um you're you're going to connect your
  215. 9:50Google Collaboratory with um
  216. 9:52Google Drive.
  217. 9:55When you run the second cell, it's going
  218. 9:57to pop up this thing that asks you to
  219. 9:59connect it to Google Drive.
  220. 10:02So, you need to
  221. 10:05click approve, approve.
  222. 10:09And it's going to connect it.
  223. 10:12Now this third part is
  224. 10:15the third cell is where you need to
  225. 10:18change.
  226. 10:19So you need to change this so that it
  227. 10:22matches to where you uploaded
  228. 10:26um this competition folder to.
  229. 10:30So how you can do it? If you already
  230. 10:31know, you can just write it down here.
  231. 10:34If you are unsure, how you can do it is
  232. 10:36by clicking this folder icon.
  233. 10:39Go inside drive.
  234. 10:42My drive.
  235. 10:44Then this my drive folder is basically
  236. 10:46your Google Drive. So for my case, I
  237. 10:49have it inside GCI
  238. 10:51folder.
  239. 10:58Yeah, so and then here you can see that
  240. 10:59then this is the competition folder,
  241. 11:01right?
  242. 11:03So I can click this button here. Click
  243. 11:06copy path.
  244. 11:07And
  245. 11:09like this. Like this. Like so.
  246. 11:14And then run the fourth cell.
  247. 11:17And if you if it shows all files exist
  248. 11:19and path is correctly set, then that
  249. 11:21means that you're all set.
  250. 11:24So now all you need to do is just run
  251. 11:26everything.
  252. 11:33All right. You run everything.
  253. 11:38And it's going to
  254. 11:42create a submission CSV file.
  255. 11:53Right?
  256. 11:55So once you're done that,
  257. 11:57if you go back to competition, um you
  258. 12:00will see let's see. It's still running.
  259. 12:04Hurry. Hurry.
  260. 12:06Yep. Yep. There we go. So once you've
  261. 12:08run it, you'll be able to
  262. 12:12This is the input folder.
  263. 12:15So yeah, so now you should see an output
  264. 12:17folder. Inside you should see the
  265. 12:19submission.csv.
  266. 12:21So you could download this.
  267. 12:25You go to Omni Campus.
  268. 12:28Go to competition.
  269. 12:33Click submit CSV file.
  270. 12:35Um
  271. 12:36see where is it?
  272. 12:38Submission.csv.
  273. 12:41And then click submit.
  274. 12:49Right.
  275. 12:50Now you should be able to see your
  276. 12:53results.
  277. 12:55And
  278. 12:57yeah, there we go.
  279. 13:00Now your task is to improve your model
  280. 13:03um and then work yourself up the
  281. 13:05um leaderboard.
  282. 13:07Right?
  283. 13:14So
  284. 13:16that's all So you can you So if you want
  285. 13:18to um
  286. 13:20So you know, the the recording of this
  287. 13:22will be um released tomorrow. So you can
  288. 13:24follow along. You can watch it again.
  289. 13:27You can also So there's also the
  290. 13:29competition tutorial PDF file.
  291. 13:32So you can also take a look at that. It
  292. 13:34has the all you know, it has the same um
  293. 13:38materials.
  294. 13:39Right?
  295. 13:41But for the
  296. 13:42in the remaining time I have, um I want
  297. 13:44to also talk about the advanced
  298. 13:46techniques. So uh some of you already
  299. 13:49know, we've we we are releasing several
  300. 13:53tutorial notebooks um
  301. 13:56which you can use to um
  302. 13:59um and use it to um improve your um
  303. 14:04model.
  304. 14:05So the first one I recommend to So this
  305. 14:08is sort of built on top of each other.
  306. 14:10We have two more notebooks coming up.
  307. 14:13Um
  308. 14:14So I recommend you first take a look at
  309. 14:17the tutorial adding features and then
  310. 14:19using the tutorial feature engineering
  311. 14:22secondly.
  312. 14:24So today um, what I will do is use the
  313. 14:28tutorial feature engineering um,
  314. 14:30notebook.
  315. 14:32I actually have them downloaded
  316. 14:35um,
  317. 14:37here. So I will upload it
  318. 14:41and use it.
  319. 14:56Right. So again,
  320. 14:59I
  321. 15:00we will run
  322. 15:01all the cells.
  323. 15:05So when you're working on the
  324. 15:07competition, it's really important that
  325. 15:09you don't just
  326. 15:11um,
  327. 15:12you know, start exploring
  328. 15:15and like trying all different kinds of
  329. 15:18things at the same time. Um, it's really
  330. 15:21important to sort of
  331. 15:23set a strategy um, or or to to
  332. 15:26set a hypothesis
  333. 15:29um, and then you test it out. So you
  334. 15:30change all the you you you keep all the
  335. 15:34variables fixed and then you change one
  336. 15:36thing at a time.
  337. 15:38See if that improves your model.
  338. 15:41Um, and then if you if it does, you keep
  339. 15:43it. If it doesn't, you you disregard and
  340. 15:46think of a different way.
  341. 15:49So and then you need to repeat that
  342. 15:50process over and over again.
  343. 15:53So
  344. 15:55let me use some of the slides here.
  345. 16:00All right. So
  346. 16:02how do you test whether the
  347. 16:06hypotheses
  348. 16:08you build is a good one or not?
  349. 16:11You
  350. 16:12As you can see here um,
  351. 16:15so probably you will be using the
  352. 16:17cross-validation method that you that we
  353. 16:20covered during the class, right? So, you
  354. 16:23it means that you have a validation set.
  355. 16:26Um so, you or you you you have your
  356. 16:28training set, you divide it into
  357. 16:32some number of folds. Um
  358. 16:34here the the this example shows a
  359. 16:36five-fold um cross-validation.
  360. 16:40And then you use
  361. 16:42four of them as your training set and
  362. 16:43then use that the remaining one for your
  363. 16:45as your validation set.
  364. 16:47And then you repeat that process five
  365. 16:49times.
  366. 16:51And then you get so the overall sort of
  367. 16:53the um average um
  368. 16:56So, you have, you know, you you have
  369. 16:58your training set and the validation
  370. 16:59set. You run them five times, you get
  371. 17:01and you see, you know, you can see for
  372. 17:03which fold um
  373. 17:06what was your um gain regarding in terms
  374. 17:09of the evaluation metric.
  375. 17:12A good improvement, you um should have
  376. 17:15an improvement across all of the five
  377. 17:18folds.
  378. 17:19Um you know, even if the each of this
  379. 17:22fold, you know, improvement in each of
  380. 17:24the fold might be small, but if it's
  381. 17:26improving across all folds, then it
  382. 17:28means that whatever you added is very
  383. 17:31effective um across all kinds of the
  384. 17:34data that's present.
  385. 17:36On the other hand, for example, maybe
  386. 17:40one, you know, adding what a feature
  387. 17:42might lead to some improvements for some
  388. 17:46of the folds, but maybe no improvements
  389. 17:49for some and even like a, you know, it
  390. 17:51may
  391. 17:52um degrade the performance in some of
  392. 17:54the folds. So, this is a bad
  393. 17:56improvement, meaning that you should
  394. 17:58think again about what kind of, you
  395. 18:00know, whether adding this particular
  396. 18:03feature is really effective or not.
  397. 18:06So, it's not just about improving on
  398. 18:08average, it's really about whether it's
  399. 18:11improving across all folds. This is one
  400. 18:14thing to keep it, you know, keep it in
  401. 18:15mind.
  402. 18:17The other thing that I was um explaining
  403. 18:20earlier as well is to treat each task as
  404. 18:23a hypothesis. So,
  405. 18:25you just don't, you know, you don't um
  406. 18:28explore randomly
  407. 18:30um testing all different things at once.
  408. 18:33You test one by one. So, it's like an
  409. 18:35you know
  410. 18:36if you've done maybe research research
  411. 18:39is also similar. I think business is
  412. 18:42also very similar like to this.
  413. 18:45But you you need to first set up a
  414. 18:47hypothesis.
  415. 18:49Test it out.
  416. 18:50See if it leads to a an improvement on
  417. 18:53your model.
  418. 18:54Um if it's not, then you need to think
  419. 18:57about why it's not. Then you need to
  420. 18:59test, you know, rebuild your hypothesis
  421. 19:02and repeat it over and over again.
  422. 19:06So, for example, um you know, one
  423. 19:09hypothesis could be that, you know, um
  424. 19:11in one of the maybe you have
  425. 19:14a a a feature that's about um whether
  426. 19:18this person this client is employed or
  427. 19:20not. Then you find that
  428. 19:23you know, maybe this number
  429. 19:25um
  430. 19:27there's this strange number and you
  431. 19:30think you know, maybe this number
  432. 19:32represent, you know,
  433. 19:34um my
  434. 19:35it's not meaningful.
  435. 19:37And you replace this number with, you
  436. 19:40know, a nan, a missing value.
  437. 19:42But then you run the the model, see
  438. 19:44that, you know, only one of the folds
  439. 19:46get better.
  440. 19:47Um and then on average it's like um
  441. 19:50degrading your performance. So, you
  442. 19:53would then need to um
  443. 19:55think again, build another hypothesis.
  444. 19:58Um
  445. 20:00and you know, maybe add, you know, try
  446. 20:02something else.
  447. 20:03You rerun the model, see that your model
  448. 20:07gets really better across all the four
  449. 20:09five five folds.
  450. 20:11Um and then you, you know, you will keep
  451. 20:13that change.
  452. 20:15And you repeat that all um again and
  453. 20:17again.
  454. 20:21Um and then the other thing I want to
  455. 20:24say is
  456. 20:27your model performance is basically
  457. 20:31um
  458. 20:32and to improve across two axes.
  459. 20:36One is how much more how much data you
  460. 20:39give to the model.
  461. 20:41And the other axis is
  462. 20:44or the model's capacity.
  463. 20:47So, the tutorial notebook, that's your
  464. 20:51baseline. So, that's the first working
  465. 20:53model that you have.
  466. 20:55And what you should aim for is to sort
  467. 20:57of increase your model across both of
  468. 21:00these two axes.
  469. 21:02Um, the adding features, so if we go
  470. 21:06back to this folder, or this folder,
  471. 21:10you should you can see that there's this
  472. 21:12adding features notebook and this
  473. 21:13feature engineering notebook.
  474. 21:16So, what this adding features notebook,
  475. 21:18this is a notebook about adding more
  476. 21:20features, more more columns to
  477. 21:23um, to the model. So, this is more about
  478. 21:26this Y axis direction, right? So, you're
  479. 21:28going to increase the
  480. 21:30um amount of data you have.
  481. 21:33Um,
  482. 21:34that you give to the model.
  483. 21:37And then the next thing you should
  484. 21:39consider is
  485. 21:41maybe you want to change your model. May
  486. 21:43um, you know, the the baseline uses
  487. 21:46maybe like logistic regression. Um, and
  488. 21:49you might think, okay, I want to try
  489. 21:50something new, um, something better like
  490. 21:52a random forest or other um, good
  491. 21:55models.
  492. 21:56That is an improvement um, on the Y
  493. 22:01axis. So, um,
  494. 22:03oh, sorry, the X axis. So, you're
  495. 22:05increasing the
  496. 22:07the model capacity, basically.
  497. 22:10And then
  498. 22:11you can also try, you know, I think we
  499. 22:13covered model um, hyperparameter tuning
  500. 22:16in session five, I think. So, this is
  501. 22:20going to be about tuning your model. So,
  502. 22:22this is going to sort of map this is
  503. 22:24about maximizing
  504. 22:26the model performance. So, it that this
  505. 22:28is going to be increasing in the x-axis.
  506. 22:32And then, um the And then, the
  507. 22:35the fifth thing that you can do,
  508. 22:37um
  509. 22:38this is going to be covered next week,
  510. 22:40um feature engineering. So, this is
  511. 22:42about creating new features by yourself.
  512. 22:46So, this is good This is going to be
  513. 22:48increasing in this y-axis in this
  514. 22:50figure.
  515. 22:52And then, you create, you know, repeat
  516. 22:53this over and over again, trying to
  517. 22:55improve the model and also the data, you
  518. 22:57know, in in the direction of a model and
  519. 23:00also the data.
  520. 23:01And, you know, you're going to get a
  521. 23:04very good, um
  522. 23:06model, um model in the end.
  523. 23:10Right. And then,
  524. 23:12as we have covered, um as as the
  525. 23:16you know, we we released the, you know,
  526. 23:18adding features notebook especially in
  527. 23:19the first because,
  528. 23:21um you know, even if you have a good
  529. 23:23model, if you don't have enough data,
  530. 23:25then
  531. 23:27um the model isn't really going to
  532. 23:28capture all, um you know, you know, good
  533. 23:31features, um
  534. 23:33because the input is limited. So,
  535. 23:36my my advice My advice is to start by
  536. 23:40increasing, you know, using all the data
  537. 23:42available.
  538. 23:43And then, um trying to see if you can
  539. 23:46improve the model.
  540. 23:49Right.
  541. 23:52So, I I I will really um give you the
  542. 23:56slides um later on.
  543. 23:58So,
  544. 24:00yeah, so let's see. So, here, this is so
  545. 24:03I will cover the feature engineering
  546. 24:05notebook. So, this is about adding new
  547. 24:08features to your note um to your model.
  548. 24:11So, you know,
  549. 24:14of course, you can, you know, there's a
  550. 24:15lot of features that you can use
  551. 24:17already, but there are some features
  552. 24:19that you can also create by yourself.
  553. 24:22We will also, you know, we'll cover
  554. 24:23feature engineering
  555. 24:25in the next week's session, but I will
  556. 24:28or give you a preview of what this is
  557. 24:31going to look like.
  558. 24:33So, even when you're going to create new
  559. 24:34features, it's important that you just
  560. 24:36don't like
  561. 24:38um run off and create
  562. 24:41um new features uh
  563. 24:43you know, my randomly. It's really
  564. 24:45important to have a hypothesis and then,
  565. 24:49you know, um use that hypothesis to test
  566. 24:52it out um
  567. 24:53and convert that into feature
  568. 24:55engineering or model improvement or
  569. 24:59um etc.
  570. 25:01So, then for example, um
  571. 25:06one perspective you can have is like,
  572. 25:09"Okay, so
  573. 25:10our task is to predict whether a client
  574. 25:13is going to default or not." So,
  575. 25:16one question to think about is, "If you
  576. 25:19were the, you know, the person giving,
  577. 25:21you know, um deciding whether to um you
  578. 25:25know, um give the
  579. 25:27approval of a loan or not, you you would
  580. 25:31think you you can think, 'Okay, what
  581. 25:33would I check? Like, what kind of
  582. 25:35quality what kind of attributes of the
  583. 25:38clients should I check?'"
  584. 25:40Um you know, you want to think, "Okay,
  585. 25:42will this loan be paid back? Like, how
  586. 25:45am I going to analyze that, right?"
  587. 25:48So, you can for example think, you know,
  588. 25:50"The same payment
  589. 25:52the same amount of this loan is easier
  590. 25:55to, you know, pay
  591. 25:57um if you if the person has high
  592. 25:59income."
  593. 26:01Um but it's going to be more difficult
  594. 26:03if someone has a low income.
  595. 26:07So, the question is, "Can they afford
  596. 26:09the payment of their loans?"
  597. 26:11Um you know, and then of course we have
  598. 26:14the, you know, So, and then actually in
  599. 26:16the in you know, in the columns we have
  600. 26:19this annuity feature and also the income
  601. 26:22feature.
  602. 26:23So, what you know, one thing you can
  603. 26:24look at is, "Look, what if we take the
  604. 26:27ratio
  605. 26:29of the annuity and income?"
  606. 26:32So, this is going to sort of tell you um
  607. 26:36the sort of the
  608. 26:37um capacity of the client's ability to
  609. 26:41pay back the loan.
  610. 26:43So, what you can do
  611. 26:48is have this annuity income ratio,
  612. 26:53which is here. So, you know, you take
  613. 26:54the training that you know, training
  614. 26:56data set, you take the annuity and then
  615. 27:00you take the income total
  616. 27:02and you take the
  617. 27:04you you you you you you divide the
  618. 27:07annuity by the income total.
  619. 27:10So, that's this is how you can create an
  620. 27:12annuity income ratio feature to your
  621. 27:15notebook.
  622. 27:17You can also think about
  623. 27:19um you know,
  624. 27:23let's say you have two loans of the same
  625. 27:25size, but
  626. 27:27even with the same size, you know, this
  627. 27:30can be repaid over very different
  628. 27:32lengths of time. So,
  629. 27:34you can ask, "Okay, how many payments
  630. 27:37are um do we have until it's repaid?"
  631. 27:40So, this you can take um this you can
  632. 27:43calculate by taking
  633. 27:45the credit and then you divide it by the
  634. 27:48annuity and then you can create this
  635. 27:49credit term feature.
  636. 27:53So, you know, you can take the AMT
  637. 27:55credit feature and then you can divide
  638. 27:57it by annuity.
  639. 28:00So, so this is So, you know, um
  640. 28:03again, I will uh so, what I want to
  641. 28:05emphasize here is that it's very
  642. 28:07important to
  643. 28:09that a perspective, you know, you know,
  644. 28:12build a hypothesis or some kind of this
  645. 28:14question um in a question form
  646. 28:17and then try out on different kinds of
  647. 28:20um methods.
  648. 28:22It can be either, you know, you know,
  649. 28:24adding more features, adding more data,
  650. 28:26or improving the model. It can be either
  651. 28:28way, but
  652. 28:29it's important to have some kind of a
  653. 28:31hypothesis behind it.
  654. 28:34So, I know I'm running out of time. So,
  655. 28:37some other things I want to mention
  656. 28:39about.
  657. 28:40One is that
  658. 28:42the current leaderboard you're seeing,
  659. 28:44this is the public data set. So, the
  660. 28:47total is um
  661. 28:49we're not using the entire um test set.
  662. 28:52We're only using a subset of it to show
  663. 28:55the public leaderboard.
  664. 28:57The final ranking is going to be decided
  665. 28:59by using the entire um test set. So,
  666. 29:03you
  667. 29:04you shouldn't really be, you know, my
  668. 29:06advice is don't try, you know, don't aim
  669. 29:09for the highest score in the current
  670. 29:11leaderboard.
  671. 29:13Um
  672. 29:14aim for a higher um
  673. 29:17score based on your um cross-validation
  674. 29:20score.
  675. 29:23Um rules of thumb, you should definitely
  676. 29:26submit a simple baseline early
  677. 29:29um
  678. 29:30instead of, you know, waiting, you know,
  679. 29:31waiting to create the perfect model.
  680. 29:34You should repeat iterated the this
  681. 29:36iteration
  682. 29:38um as much as you can.
  683. 29:40You should look at what your model sees.
  684. 29:42Um analyze the features using explor-
  685. 29:46exploratory data analysis instead of
  686. 29:48just feeding everything to the data to
  687. 29:50the model and hope that it something
  688. 29:53happen.
  689. 29:55You should
  690. 29:56what you should do is to change one
  691. 29:58thing at a time. Write down what you
  692. 30:00find.
  693. 30:01Um and then repeat that process over and
  694. 30:03over again instead of,
  695. 30:05you know, changing five things or 10
  696. 30:07things at once and just hope, you know,
  697. 30:09hope for the best.
  698. 30:11You should iterate
  699. 30:13do the iteration fast instead of, you
  700. 30:16know, waiting for
  701. 30:18like an hour to test one and you should
  702. 30:19you you should change it keep the
  703. 30:21changes small.
  704. 30:22And you should trust the the
  705. 30:24cross-validation score instead of change
  706. 30:26chasing the public leaderboard. So,
  707. 30:28these are some of the rules of thumb and
  708. 30:30I'll
  709. 30:31um I'll I'll share this slide with you
  710. 30:33um
  711. 30:35after the lecture.
  712. 30:37Right. So,
  713. 30:38um I think I will take maybe
  714. 30:41two or three minutes to answer the
  715. 30:42question.
  716. 30:44So, yeah. So, I think I will
  717. 30:46start with this one. Is a perfect score
  718. 30:48of one possible in the competition and
  719. 30:50what score score should I aim for? So,
  720. 30:54score one, this is
  721. 30:55this is definitely either overfitting
  722. 30:59or you're using um external data. So,
  723. 31:02this is something that should not be
  724. 31:04achievable. So, um
  725. 31:07um no.
  726. 31:10This is not uh yeah, so this is some
  727. 31:12kind of a rule violation. Um
  728. 31:16It could be that you might created a a
  729. 31:19very very good model that no one had
  730. 31:21ever thought of.
  731. 31:22That's why we're asking if you're if
  732. 31:24you're aiming for an honors or
  733. 31:25outstanding student, you will need to
  734. 31:27submit the code and we will run it
  735. 31:31um internally and test if there is any
  736. 31:33kind of rule violation.
  737. 31:36So, um no, but in general, you don't
  738. 31:38need to sort of um
  739. 31:40do do get the score one and be worried.
  740. 31:42Um just aim for a higher score. Um
  741. 31:45somewhere around the top 20%.
  742. 31:48Um the competition will be evaluated um
  743. 31:52using the the the the final leader board
  744. 31:55that is going to be run after closing
  745. 31:58the competition um on the deadline date.
  746. 32:01Um
  747. 32:03yeah. Aim for this. So, so just aim for
  748. 32:05top 20%.
  749. 32:07All right?
  750. 32:09Um
  751. 32:11Yeah, so
  752. 32:15You Does using leaderboard feedback the
  753. 32:17tune risk data leakage or overfitting?
  754. 32:19Yes, so
  755. 32:21my recommendation is don't aim for like
  756. 32:230.9 or something. Maybe just first of
  757. 32:26all, I'm getting 0.7
  758. 32:28seven or seven like just going above
  759. 32:310.75-ish
  760. 32:33is a great achievement already. So, I
  761. 32:36would suggest starting from there.
  762. 32:38Um I think like the higher scores are
  763. 32:42probably due to data leakage or
  764. 32:44overfitting, which means that it's
  765. 32:46violating the rules.
  766. 32:51Um
  767. 32:53let's see. What are the rules for using
  768. 32:55AI in the competition? What are doing to
  769. 32:57share the AI chat URL? Um so instead of
  770. 33:01sharing the chat URL, we will we're
  771. 33:04going to look at your code um overall.
  772. 33:07So
  773. 33:08you you if you're aiming for honors or
  774. 33:11outstanding, you will need to attach the
  775. 33:14um the entire um folder that you have.
  776. 33:20Right?
  777. 33:21Um
  778. 33:22can I use a local IDE or and you
  779. 33:24repository for the project?
  780. 33:28Is this about
  781. 33:31Yeah, so I think this is both about the
  782. 33:33competition and final assignment. You
  783. 33:35say you say you can use
  784. 33:37a good Git repository or you know you
  785. 33:39can write it you can you you don't have
  786. 33:41to stick to Google Collaboratory.
  787. 33:44One thing I will note is that please
  788. 33:46don't that you know make the repository
  789. 33:48public. Please give it private private.
  790. 33:53Right?
  791. 33:55How can I tune my model by changing its
  792. 33:57code? So you can take a look. So um take
  793. 34:00a look at the advanced techniques. These
  794. 34:03show you so this is built on top of the
  795. 34:06tutorial notebook.
  796. 34:07Um and it also gives you actually also
  797. 34:10gives you some hints about what to think
  798. 34:13about
  799. 34:14in order to it's like you're like or to
  800. 34:17to do the next step. So take make sure
  801. 34:19to check that out.
  802. 34:22Um should we edit the baseline
  803. 34:24submission series before submitting? Um
  804. 34:27yes. So you start you can start by the
  805. 34:30using the baseline definitely and then
  806. 34:32work yourself upwards and I will share
  807. 34:35the competition part one that I'm
  808. 34:36sharing I'm sharing right now.
  809. 34:39All right. So um
  810. 34:42how are students outstanding selective
  811. 34:44one scores are tied. So,
  812. 34:47in general,
  813. 34:48we will be looking at the final
  814. 34:50assignment more than the competition.
  815. 34:52But, the top 20% will
  816. 34:55even if the scores are tied, then
  817. 34:58both of them are going to be in the top
  818. 35:0020 in the
  819. 35:01in in within the threshold.
  820. 35:06Right?
  821. 35:07So,
  822. 35:11Right. I think that I think my time is
  823. 35:14up. Can we use any machine learning
  824. 35:16models and techniques including
  825. 35:17ensembles and top PFN? Yes, you may use
  826. 35:20that for the competition
  827. 35:23and also the final assignment as well.
  828. 35:26The problem statement of the
  829. 35:27competition, you can find it in the
  830. 35:29readme.
  831. 35:31Right?
  832. 35:34How should we prioritize feature
  833. 35:36engineering error analysis and try
  834. 35:38different models to improve the results?
  835. 35:40I'll I'll share the slide later, but
  836. 35:43improve
  837. 35:44the data first and then improve the
  838. 35:46model.
  839. 35:49Or anything.
  840. 35:51Okay.
  841. 35:54Right.
  842. 35:56Can we use external data sets? No, you
  843. 35:58may not.
  844. 36:00Right?
  845. 36:01So, I think my time is up and
  846. 36:05I think I will hand over to Takashi
  847. 36:07first, right?

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