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Fundamental Analysis SIMPLIFIED: The Ultimate Guide for Traders — Transcript

by TraderNick · 4,829 words · 806 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00all right you guys we've been asking for
0:02it it's time to get into some
0:04fundamental analysis
0:05in today's video we're gonna do a sort
0:07of beginner slash
0:08introduction to fundamental analysis for
0:11people out there who want to
0:12incorporate it in their own trading it
0:14is a key component to my trading
0:16strategy
0:17uh is you know using fundamentals to
0:19help guide my
0:20directional bias in various markets in
0:23the currencies
0:24as well as even in the stock market and
0:26other places as well
0:27but today i'm going to give you guys
0:28sort of an introduction i know on
0:30youtube it is very popular to talk about
0:32the technical side and i think i have
0:34some pretty good videos on those
0:35subjects things like moving averages and
0:37fibonacci retracements and support and
0:38resistance i find that stuff valuable
0:40but today i think we need to dive in a
0:42little bit
0:43on the fundamental aside so before we
0:46get going do me a favor and just like
0:47the video down below if you like my
0:49content and subscribe to the channel if
0:50you're new so that you can watch more of
0:52it
0:52in the future okay let's get into it so
0:55fundamentals
0:56why they matter well fundamentals
0:59um there's some mixed opinions here the
1:02reason a lot of people don't talk about
1:03fundamentals is because
1:05quite honestly they are a little bit
1:07more difficult in my view
1:08than technical analysis we all kind of
1:10understand the concept of supply
1:12and demand or looking for levels on a
1:13chart where things could reverse or
1:15continue
1:16that sort of makes sense to a lot of
1:18people but fundamentals
1:19they truth be told they are still
1:22something that i am continuing to
1:23improve on and learn like i've been
1:25doing this for a while and
1:26there's a lot to this stuff it is not a
1:28simple
1:29simple thing it's there's a reason why
1:31people go to college for economics and
1:34they look at this stuff in depth and you
1:35know most of the people that work in
1:37major
1:38institutions or even the central banks
1:41they have phds in this stuff if not
1:43multiple and they take it very very
1:45seriously
1:46so why should the average person care
1:49well
1:49some people say you don't need it others
1:51say you know you do need it
1:53i think that it really helps me because
1:55i personally like to understand
1:57why at a basic level am i buying the us
2:00dollar
2:01or buying the euro or buying the yen why
2:04am i buying it or why am i
2:06selling a currency understanding the
2:09economies that we are working with and
2:11sort of trying to get an idea of whether
2:12or not
2:13a economy itself is healthy or sort of
2:16diminishing can be a huge help in
2:18guiding my currency trades
2:20fundamentals are truly what drives a
2:22market's
2:23value right if an economy is doing well
2:26their currency could
2:27reflect that if an economy is doing
2:29poorly it could also be impacting
2:32their currency as well fundamental
2:34trends
2:35they can last from minutes to years so
2:38if you get a news release
2:39obviously that can have a lot of impact
2:41in the short term but
2:42in terms of long term there also can be
2:45some major major impacts
2:47from economic data and all the stuff
2:49that we're about to get to
2:51in this video for me fundamentals help
2:54me pick a direction
2:55while technicals help me pick entries
2:57and exits i'll say that again because
2:59it's kind of important so i use
3:01fundamentals to help me pick direction
3:03one of the biggest criticisms that
3:04people have for fundamentals
3:06is that it doesn't really help you so
3:07much with timing because fundamentals
3:10can be quite um they can again they can
3:13last for minutes to years so their their
3:15impact can be uh sort of you could you
3:18could be bullish on a currency
3:19and that currency could go down for
3:21quite a while before it actually ends up
3:22going your direction that you had a bias
3:24on
3:24so fundamentals for picking a direction
3:28whereas i use technicals to sort of look
3:30for entries
3:32and exits if that makes sense so
3:33technicals are sort of my
3:35in and outs and then fundamentals help
3:37me actually pick the direction that i
3:39want to trade in
3:40okay so there's three pillars there's
3:43three main pillars
3:44that we are going to cover in this video
3:46for this sort of introductory level now
3:48please note
3:49we could spend uh hours and hours on
3:51each one of these things there's a lot
3:52to this stuff and i would be
3:54uh i would be not telling the full truth
3:56if i didn't tell you that you know
3:57there's
3:58a lot of stuff here this is not
3:59something that is easy and we're going
4:00to be able to get through in just a few
4:02minutes or anything like that
4:03this is going to give you a surface
4:05level understanding of these concepts so
4:07that you can go take more time to go
4:08read more in depth and look more in
4:10depth into this stuff
4:12there's reasons why there's entire you
4:14know companies around
4:15uh producing this content in fact my
4:17company a1 trading
4:19we are trying to do our very best to
4:20sort of put out content that helps
4:22people decipher
4:24all of the information that is flowing
4:25around this stuff
4:27so let's try and dive into these main
4:30three pillars the three pillars that i
4:31have listed here
4:32are going to be economic data these are
4:34things like unemployment rates
4:36gdp interest rates etc
4:39and then central bank bank decisions
4:41which are
4:42you know things like the the federal
4:44reserve in the united states or the
4:46ecb in europe or wherever right
4:49and they have monetary agendas or
4:51policies that they can put in place
4:53to try and strengthen or weaken in some
4:56cases
4:57their own currency uh which sounds weird
4:59but sometimes you might actually
5:01some some central banks might actually
5:03elect to weaken their currency on
5:05purpose
5:06so we'll talk a little bit about that as
5:07we get along again
5:09just buckle up stay tuned and let's keep
5:11going so
5:12the last one is going to be geopolitical
5:15events now we probably all know about
5:17these whether
5:17whether or not you know we incorporate
5:20them in our trading
5:21it is something that we all are impacted
5:23by especially if you are in
5:24a region where something like this is
5:26occurring something like
5:28some sort of war or we are all facing at
5:30the time of making this video
5:32a global pandemic and then you have
5:34things like for example brexit these are
5:37regional things that can happen and they
5:38can impact
5:40economies and they can impact currencies
5:42okay
5:43so those are the three pillars let's
5:44dive into each one individually so the
5:46first one is going to probably be our
5:48longest one this is going to be our
5:49economic data so these are
5:51measurements and data points that people
5:54you know keep an eye on in terms of
5:57trading the first one is going to be
5:58interest rates now an interest rate to
6:01sum it up or i got this definition
6:03off of wikipedia i believe an interest
6:06rate is the amount of interest due
6:07per period as a proportion of the amount
6:09lent deposited or borrowed the total
6:11interest
6:12on an amount lent or borrowed depends on
6:14the principal sum the interest rate the
6:16compounding frequency and the length of
6:18time over which it is linked deposited
6:19or borrowed
6:20that was a lot but the idea basically is
6:23that higher interest rates in an economy
6:25or
6:25in you know by a central bank are viewed
6:28as hawkish or
6:29good for a currency making it more
6:33valuable right if a bank is offering you
6:36more interest
6:37if a bank offers you two percent uh in
6:39another country
6:40and it offers you zero percent or even
6:43negative in another country
6:45you'd probably rather if you had to
6:46stick your money somewhere you'd
6:47probably rather put it in the place
6:49that offers higher rates so long as the
6:51economy is stable
6:52underlying where your money is so that's
6:55the first one interest rates now
6:57we can look at an example here you can
6:58see here's canada's interest rate
7:00now we shouldn't pick on canada too much
7:02because all interest rates around the
7:04world right now
7:05for the most part many many countries
7:07have cut rates dramatically
7:09to sort of um cope with or deal with the
7:12uh the 2020 pandemic that we face now
7:16cutting rates is a way to sort of
7:17stimulate economies
7:19and it is usually seen as
7:22sort of a concerning thing for a
7:24currency because if you have to cut
7:26rates it means that oh you know the the
7:27economy underlying could be
7:29in trouble and they need to cut rates
7:31and it also makes again going back to
7:33that where would you stick your money if
7:34there's less
7:35currency or less interest being offered
7:37in a certain country
7:38you may be less interested in you know
7:41parking your money there if that makes
7:43sense
7:43so you know for the big big players that
7:46have billions and trillions of dollars
7:48big institutions and companies and
7:50you know big uh people groups that
7:53want to put money somewhere if there's
7:55less interest offered in
7:57say canada maybe they're less interested
8:00in parking their money there and maybe
8:01they'd rather park it somewhere else you
8:02know
8:03just a simple simple concept
8:06now the next one is going to be
8:07inflation rates now inflation
8:09this gets tricky really quick so i'm
8:11going to do my best to explain this but
8:12if you need to re-watch this you can
8:14just back up in the video
8:15but inflation is the rate at which the
8:18value of a currency is
8:20falling and consequently the general
8:22level of prices for goods and services
8:24is rising okay inflation um there's
8:28actually a healthy level of inflation
8:29people always view
8:30inflation as bad because locally
8:33it is perceived bad because if your
8:35currency is um
8:37you know losing value right they're
8:39printing more of it or
8:40you know the value of your single us
8:43dollar or your
8:44your canadian dollar wherever you are in
8:46the world right if that's losing value
8:48it
8:49seems bad however there is a healthy
8:51level of inflation
8:52that comes along with a healthy growing
8:54economy
8:56you know it kind of makes sense that if
8:57an economy is strong
8:59then you know consumers are bidding up
9:01prices they're buying things and and
9:03goods are becoming uh more pricey just
9:06because people are out there spending it
9:08right
9:08so and things are getting more
9:10competitive and the job market is
9:11getting more you know all that sort of
9:12stuff comes into play so there is a
9:13healthy level inflation
9:15so i should say that according to
9:17forexfactory.com another good way of
9:19saying it is inflation is important to
9:21currency valuation
9:22because rising prices lead the central
9:25bank
9:25to raise interest rates out of respect
9:28for their inflation containment mandate
9:31so back to what i just said
9:32earlier about interest rates remember
9:36hiking interest rates are is good for a
9:38currency it is considered
9:39um you know hawkish or bullish now
9:43that is a bit confusing because again
9:44too much inflation bad because it really
9:46hurts
9:47uh you know the the value of um citizen
9:50money right
9:51but too little inflation is also bad so
9:54please know
9:55uh basically if there's too little
9:56inflation that basically means that
9:58you know people are not spending their
9:59money consumer demand is low um that's
10:02bad for
10:03for you know gdp that's bad for growth
10:06that's bad for
10:07um potentially jobs right so deflation
10:09is also not good
10:11so we're gonna look at a visual in just
10:13a moment but um
10:15let's let's just know that basically too
10:17much inflation equals bad
10:19and too little inflation also equals bat
10:22now this visual is one that i put
10:24together feel free
10:25to pause the video you can screenshot
10:27this if you want you can make your own
10:30this helps me a lot to understand this
10:32concept because i'm a visual learner so
10:34i like to see something
10:36that helps me with this stuff okay so
10:38what i should show you is that over here
10:40you can see
10:40that we have inflation on the y-axis and
10:43we have interest rates on
10:44the x-axis and again all of these things
10:46are reported by
10:48central banks we can see what the
10:49numbers come out to a common way to
10:51measure inflation is cpi
10:53i actually have a video on cpi if you
10:55want to look up trader nick cpi on
10:57youtube maybe after this video you can
10:58go watch that if you want more
11:00on the actual way they calculate
11:03inflation in in the u.s and in canada
11:05and some of the other places
11:07so but please know that basically
11:10interest rates are what we really care
11:12about interest rates
11:14going higher hiking is generally a
11:18good thing for a currency as it attracts
11:21more buyers
11:22and then when they cut rates it's
11:23generally viewed as
11:25not so good for a currency because
11:26people are going to be less interested
11:27in owning that currency or buying into
11:29that economy because
11:30there's just less yield there for you
11:32know lending to that
11:33to that country so when we're looking at
11:37uh this chart if we see
11:41you know inflation rising what that
11:44means is that
11:45economies are growing at a rapid pace
11:48uh or you know the value of money is
11:50decreasing quickly because
11:52either prices are bidding too much or
11:54they're printing way too much money
11:57by the central government now if prices
12:00get
12:00too high if inflation gets too high what
12:03we see
12:04is we usually see a rate hike okay so if
12:07we're if we're on the edge of inflation
12:08where we're seeing a lot of inflation
12:10which right now
12:11the u.s as we make this video right now
12:14inflation is is being watched closely
12:16and people have concerns that inflation
12:18rates
12:19are rising why is that concerning well
12:22rate hikes are good for a currency but
12:25not necessarily good for
12:27the stock market or for stocks that need
12:29to borrow money because
12:30although it's good for lenders it's not
12:32great for borrowers right
12:34companies that need to borrow money if
12:35they have to borrow at a higher rate
12:36it's worse for them
12:38lenders it's better because if you want
12:40to lend to the united states you get
12:42paid a higher amount right
12:43in terms of interest so that can be
12:46viewed as good for the currency but not
12:48necessarily great for stocks
12:49but anyways higher inflation if we're at
12:51a high point in inflation we see the cpi
12:53numbers coming out high
12:55oftentimes we can see the fed sort of
12:58rate hike they raise the interest rate
13:01um
13:02and that can be good for the
13:05currency and again not so great for
13:07economies
13:08now there i should say that there is an
13:09ideal rate of two percent
13:11according to the fed um you know their
13:14their
13:15sort of uh target is to hit two percent
13:17inflation
13:18because that's sort of a steady rate
13:21obviously too little inflation like i
13:22said is also bad we get deflation if we
13:25see this
13:27you know this is where we can get
13:28negative interest rates and this is also
13:30not good because
13:31that's not attractive to your country
13:33you want you want people to be
13:35putting money into your country not
13:37leaving right
13:38too much leaving is not great and
13:40inflation unless unless of course you're
13:42trying to purposely devalue the currency
13:44which we can talk about in just a moment
13:45again i know there's a lot of moving
13:46parts here so feel free to re-watch this
13:48video if you need to
13:50or watch it multiple times or save it
13:51whatever you need you need to do
13:53but inflation should be also noted that
13:56you know
13:57raising inflation rising inflation
13:59obviously creates a weaker currency
14:01as things as we print more money as
14:04you know money loses its value that
14:07causes
14:07a weaker currency and vice versa
14:10deflation causes an expensive currency
14:12however remember so as we weaken as we
14:15weaken though
14:16we can cut we can hike rates which can
14:18cause
14:19the the currency to again gain back some
14:22of that value
14:24um i'm trying to do my best to explain
14:26this stuff again i i find this visual
14:28helpful
14:28you guys might um you might agree you
14:31might disagree but for me this is just
14:32the easiest way to understand it
14:34that two percent is the ideal sort of
14:36inflation rate
14:37things can be cut when inflation is
14:38looking not so not so good right
14:41less than less than desired and it can
14:43be height
14:44when things are getting too too fast
14:47this can oftentimes be
14:48due to you know a rapidly growing
14:50economy that's not sustainable
14:52they can hike rates to sort of try and
14:54stunt that growth which sounds weird but
14:56you want to have like a healthy level of
14:58growth ideally and so
14:59that's the that's the theory there okay
15:02and i know i'm not i'm by no means like
15:04a
15:05masterful economist i didn't go to
15:07school for this or anything like this
15:08this is stuff that i've
15:09uh just put together and learned over my
15:11time as a trader
15:13so please understand there there might
15:14even be better explanations out there
15:16and if i'm not doing the best job then i
15:18apologize but
15:20this is just the way that i understand
15:21it so let's talk about gdp the next one
15:23is gdp this one is a little bit easier
15:26so gdp is gross domestic product
15:29and it is basically a monetary monetary
15:32measure
15:32of the market value of all the final
15:34goods and services produced
15:36in a specific time period so growing gdp
15:39equals good diminishing gdp equals not
15:42so good
15:42right if economies are growing if more
15:44business is conducting if things are
15:46going well
15:47gdp is rising and that is considered
15:49good or bullish for a currency because
15:51there's more demand
15:52for that currency if there's a lot of
15:55business going on in the u.s
15:57what do people need to do business in if
15:59they want to do business in the us they
16:00need u.s dollars right so that can
16:02create demand
16:03for the underlying currency so next one
16:06is unemployment rate so unemployment
16:08rates
16:08are also fairly simple there's a big
16:11definition there that you can read but
16:13the very simple version is
16:14more jobs equals good for the currency
16:17and less jobs
16:18equals bad for the economy or the
16:21currency right
16:22so if there's um you know rising jobs is
16:24another thing like if we're seeing
16:26consistent growth in jobs as we're
16:28seeing right now in the us that's
16:29considered
16:29uh bullish right because that's that's
16:32showing
16:32growth because unemployment rate if
16:35unemployment rate
16:36falls and jobs are being created that is
16:38good for
16:39gdp right that's the theory and good gdp
16:43can cause positive growth and maybe even
16:46inflation
16:47which again going back to our concept
16:49here if inflation is rising
16:52what does that potentially mean rate
16:54hikes which are
16:55bullish for the currency it all kind of
16:57ties together i know
16:59it might take a few times watching
17:00through this i needed a lot of time and
17:02this took me a long time to sort of
17:03understand
17:04to the point that i'm at um so you know
17:07i don't blame you if you need to watch
17:09it again or go back
17:10but central bank policies now this is
17:11the next one um so
17:14the central banks around the world
17:16whether it's australia
17:17whether it's europe whether it's the fed
17:20from the us
17:21they all have sort of an agenda they all
17:23have sort of a target goal
17:24like i said they want to be you know
17:26hitting that target inflation rate they
17:28want to be
17:29you know raising rates if they need to
17:31or cutting rates if they need to
17:32and they all have sort of a plan and the
17:35cool thing is they
17:36actually make their plan directly
17:38available to us in the form of
17:40statements
17:40they tell us what they want to happen so
17:44that it can help
17:44actually make it happen right if
17:47switzerland right now if they say they
17:48want to weaken their currency on purpose
17:51then that can be um considered you know
17:54that's their agenda they want that to
17:56happen they're not trying to trick you
17:57they're telling you
17:58you know we're going to do what we can
17:59to weaken our own currency why would
18:01somebody want to weaken their own
18:02currency
18:03well here's the simple i didn't make a
18:04slide for this but i'll tell you guys
18:06the basic idea
18:07weakening your own currency can be
18:10arguably good for trade
18:12if your currency is less valuable than
18:14my currency
18:16then it's easier for me to do business
18:18in your country
18:19because i can you know in my own
18:21currency my own currency goes further
18:23in your country which makes it easier
18:26for me to do business in your country
18:28which is good for what gdp what is gdp
18:31good
18:31for it's raising you know the growth in
18:34your economy
18:35and so um that's the idea right so
18:38purposely
18:39damaging your not damaging but weakening
18:41your own currency printing more money
18:43uh can actually be in the long term a
18:45great strategy to sort of
18:47make trade more competitive so more
18:50businesses will want to come to your
18:51country or you know
18:53exports can do better in your country
18:56right
18:57that's the that's the sort of idea now
18:58it hurts imports because why if you're
19:00if your country's
19:01currency is weak it costs way more in
19:04your country to buy something from
19:06a another country where the expensive
19:08currency is right
19:10so it's understanding this concept um
19:13that can go a long way now geopolitical
19:15events this is the next thing i want to
19:17talk about so this one we sort of
19:18touched on in the beginning
19:19but there is change happening everywhere
19:22in the world right
19:23and change can cause market participants
19:26traders investors companies to pull out
19:29of countries to move their money around
19:31to take their money out of things that
19:33they're concerned about or put money in
19:34things that look really promising
19:36terrorist attacks elections wars and
19:39even
19:40lately presidential tweets can have a
19:42direct impact
19:44on the markets and the valuations of
19:46currencies
19:47and uh you know indices and bond markets
19:50all that stuff can be impacted by these
19:52real world stuff going on now keep an
19:55eye on these things because
19:56the latest developments can actually
19:59really cause
20:00some big moves and they can form and i
20:03want to encourage you guys to form your
20:04opinions
20:05based on the facts out there there's
20:07always like um sort of
20:09uh you know drama and stuff going on in
20:11the world but just looking at the facts
20:12and looking at objectively what's going
20:14on
20:14can be a really big help a lot of times
20:17people get their political
20:18and their opinions into their trading i
20:21would highly encourage you to avoid that
20:23because your
20:24your emotional based opinions on
20:26politics
20:27on developments or whatever can really
20:30be a hindrance to your trading
20:32look at things objectively look at how
20:34the market views something
20:35and go with that don't just let your
20:38emotional
20:39uh reaction to something let's say you
20:41don't like donald trump or you don't
20:42like joe biden
20:43if you let that dominate your mindset
20:46when you're trading it can cause you to
20:48miss out on some great moves or
20:50to fearfully you know not do something
20:53that you should have you should have
20:54gone for right
20:55so don't let your biases
20:58and your uh you know i should say your
21:01emotional biases
21:02form your objective biases okay so don't
21:05get overwhelmed
21:06i know there's a million things to look
21:08at when it turns when it comes to the
21:09whole world there's so many things going
21:11on
21:11so for me the major things that i look
21:13at are just the most
21:15major market moving events right now
21:17that would be
21:18the global pandemic maybe a year ago
21:22a year and a half ago maybe that was
21:23brexit right keeping an eye on those
21:25things and the latest developments in
21:27those areas and where it seems to be
21:28headed
21:29can be a really good way to form trading
21:32biases
21:33in your fundamental analysis again what
21:35we're going to do here is we're we're
21:37piling all these things together we're
21:38looking at the geopolitical events we're
21:40looking at the economic data
21:41and we're looking at the agendas of the
21:43central banks to try and tie it out and
21:45all together
21:45now i should say bringing it all
21:47together is not easy
21:48it takes a lot of practice and it's not
21:50something that you know you're just
21:51gonna be like okay i'm just
21:52you know i looked at all this stuff and
21:54now i know exactly where the currency's
21:56going
21:56if it was that easy it would be great
21:58but this is why a lot of people shy away
22:00from fundamentals is
22:01there's a lot to it it's not a super
22:03easy thing like oh just buy support
22:05right and although i know you know there
22:07are people out there who are
22:09just good with their technicals to the
22:10point that they don't really pay
22:11attention to fundamentals
22:13i find it very very helpful to look for
22:15dominating fundamental based
22:16trends that are going on things like buy
22:19the rumor
22:19sell the news are based off of the idea
22:22of buying
22:23a fundamental rumor like you know so
22:26such and such company is talking about
22:28potentially releasing a new major
22:30product that could change their market
22:31value and
22:32you know then you go buy the company
22:33because you believe that it has you know
22:35good promise and then it works out and
22:37then the the company flies up right that
22:39would be a stock scenario but
22:41this happens in currencies it happens in
22:43all sorts of stuff
22:44right so that's how i would say you know
22:47these are all the different components
22:48maybe in a future episode we'll talk
22:49more about combining them all together
22:51but the basic idea
22:52is you know take a look at all of these
22:54things they all matter
22:56and sort of you know base your own uh
22:58make your own decisions based on
23:01the facts that you have available to you
23:03if they're available to you you might as
23:04well use them that's how i view this
23:06stuff
23:06so um you know pay attention to what is
23:09currently moving the market the most
23:11because this changes over time
23:12right the political events they can
23:14definitely change if there's an election
23:16going on that can absolutely
23:18cause uh you know be the dominant
23:20headline for months at a time
23:22so moving with the latest developments
23:24and even trying to get in front of them
23:26that's where some of the best sort of
23:28fundamental trades can come in
23:30and then combining them with your
23:31technicals right so everything that
23:33we've talked about here you're just
23:34combining that on top of your your
23:37technical and sentiment based analysis
23:39that's at least how i do this so
23:41i'll look at all this stuff first i'll
23:42have a a overall
23:44view of what i you know what i'm bullish
23:46on and what i'm bearish on am i bullish
23:48on the us dollar am i bullish on the
23:49pound
23:50and then from there i will look for
23:51technical setups that match up
23:53with my criteria so that's all i've got
23:56for you guys before we go
23:58um i do want to say join the newsletter
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24:10we are looking at in the markets my team
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24:33thank you guys so much for being here
24:34and we'll see you back in the next one

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