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FULL EPISODE: Chris Camillo Reveals The Next ULTIMATE Trade Of 2026 — Transcript

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0:00I think GTA is a magical moment for our
0:04culture.
0:04>> So, what's your biggest trade coming up
0:07>> like is going to do phenomenal.
0:10>> What about
0:11>> I'm not excited about I don't own any
0:14right now, but I still think the main
0:17trade is on take two.
0:19>> What are your thoughts on
0:20>> I love to see falling here. I don't know
0:23when I'm going to make my big move to
0:25heavily lever back into it, but it's
0:27probably going to happen at some point
0:29in the next few months.
0:35>> Chris, thank you so much for coming back
0:36on the ice coffee hour.
0:38>> Happy to be here anytime.
0:40>> We forgot to ask you your thoughts on
0:42Tesla.
0:43>> I don't think my like thesis on Tesla
0:46has changed at all. I think only one
0:48thing matters and that's the robot,
0:50right? That's Optimus. And so there's
0:52actually a lot to talk about when it
0:54comes to Optimist and I haven't talked
0:55about it publicly in a bit. Um,
0:59everyone has really strong feelings on
1:01Tesla, so I'm always trying to like I
1:04don't know, be careful with my words
1:06because I think I end up pissing so many
1:08Tesla fanboys off when I say anything
1:10negative.
1:11The truth is, you remember guys, like my
1:13big robotic thesis was mainly around
1:16Optimus and Tesla years ago. Like I was
1:19super
1:20long Tesla on the hope that Optimus
1:23could essentially equate to a $10
1:26trillion valuation just at Tesla, just
1:29the Optimus division, right? If they
1:30were to execute on that. The the truth
1:33is um at least from my evaluation of the
1:37program and my intel and everything that
1:39I've been hearing for the past two plus
1:43years the Optimus program has been in
1:47shambles. The Optimus program has not
1:51performed. Uh they've lost a lot of
1:54their top talent. From what I understand
1:57there has been a lot of internal
2:00frustration. uh between the team and
2:03between between the team and Elon as it
2:07relates to progress, as it relates to
2:09strategy on the robot, as it relates to
2:12to the hands specifically and hand
2:15strategy. Contrary to what you might
2:18have heard recently from a big
2:20influencer who claims to have seen a
2:22video and tells you that Optimus is a
2:25year and a half further along than any
2:28other robot, I don't think that person
2:30necessarily knows what he's talking
2:31about because my intel tells me the
2:33exact opposite. Uh we were supposed to
2:36get an Optimus update publicly in March
2:39and April this year. It didn't come. It
2:41seems like we're nowhere close to seeing
2:44this next gen of Optimus and that they
2:48are far behind and that there are still
2:50way more questions and answers as it
2:53relates to getting Optimus to that point
2:57of a truly scalable hardware platform,
3:00right? It's it's it's not it's not ready
3:02for scale yet. We're ready to show
3:04>> the Tesla play is really just a humanoid
3:06robot play.
3:06>> That's it for me. That's it. I
3:09>> how much more room would the company
3:10have to grow if it were if it were
3:11strictly off of the cars?
3:13>> Yeah, cuz aren't they doing crazy stuff
3:14with full self-driving and subscription
3:17revenue and they got the robo taxis?
3:19>> Yeah. I mean, I think that's they're
3:21doing fine there, but I don't think
3:22you're going to see a meaningful lift in
3:25valuation coming from that. I think a
3:27lot of that is baked into the current
3:28day's valuation at Tesla. So if you were
3:31to remove Optimus, you can say what is
3:34self-driving reasonably worth right now
3:36when you have to assess the competition.
3:39When we were talking about, you know,
3:41full self-driving, robo taxi, and how
3:46big that industry sector is years ago,
3:48we always kind of thought that Tesla
3:50would be so far advanced,
3:52>> so further along than anyone else. Do
3:54you agree that that's not the case
3:56today? I mean, we can say that Tesla
4:00maybe is in the pole position from a
4:02cost standpoint uh in terms of robo taxi
4:06if their plans play out. But guys, look
4:08at the competition. It's meaningful
4:10globally. Whether you look at the
4:12competition here in terms of Whimo and
4:14others entering the space or if you look
4:16at the competition in China, it's
4:18massive, right? And China is no longer
4:21just about China. the rest of the world
4:23has shown that they're open to kind of
4:26taking these Chinese cars or taking
4:28these Chinese products. So there's real
4:30meaningful competition on driverless now
4:33that we didn't think would be going neck
4:35to neck with Tesla 5 years ago when we
4:37were having these conversations. So like
4:39I just don't know how we would value
4:41that when the moat is no longer as big
4:44as it once was.
4:46I think
4:48generalized robotics, humanoids
4:51specifically, I think the TAM is so
4:54massively large that if Tesla were to
4:57fully execute on the Optimus vision,
5:00they have every opportunity to be in a
5:03pole position and to be a top one or two
5:05company in the space, but they just
5:06haven't executed yet. We have to be
5:07honest.
5:08>> What do you think about Apple right now?
5:11>> Yeah, they just got the new CEO.
5:13>> Yes. $56 million pay package, by the
5:16way.
5:16>> That's fine. I mean, that's nothing in
5:18the big scheme of Apple, right? So,
5:19that's cool.
5:20>> So, you're saying he's underpaid?
5:21>> Yeah. I think it's I don't I just think
5:23it's I just think it's nonmaterial. I
5:25think it's nonmaterial. What do I think
5:27about Apple? Nothing right now. I think
5:29Apple has a great business. They're a
5:32cash cow. They've been fully optimized
5:34to be the cash cow that they are. they
5:37haven't taken a lot of huge risk which
5:40we might look back and think was a good
5:43thing.
5:43>> I I I don't know. I just don't have
5:46strong feelings. I mean what's happening
5:48at Apple right this second that we think
5:51can propel the company meaningfully as a
5:53growth company the next 5 years. I'm not
5:56sure we have the answer to that
5:57question. So like I'm not excited about
6:00Apple. I don't own any Apple right now.
6:03I think it's a fine company. It's just
6:06not a company that has something that
6:10has potential to be wildly great that
6:12the market is underestimating in my
6:14opinion right now today.
6:15>> I just have a hard time believing that
6:16they're not working on something
6:18different, unique, with high growth
6:20potential behind the scenes.
6:22>> Okay. So, I was really upset cuz I
6:25thought for a couple years that there is
6:27no way that Apple wasn't cooking up a
6:31robot division that was meaningful
6:33behind the scenes because there's no
6:34company on earth that has the trust of
6:37consumers that has the ecosystem to pull
6:40off a home robot like Apple does. Even
6:42if it's 10 years away, I don't care 5
6:44years away, 8 years away.
6:46>> If you're going to bring a robot into
6:48your home, that robot is going to be
6:50able to listen. is going to be able to
6:53see a lot of really personal stuff. This
6:55is something that no one really talks
6:56about. Also, there's a high level of
6:58safety, right, that you're going to want
7:00in the home with your pets, with your
7:01kids, with elderly, even with yourself.
7:04Um, Apple has something that I think no
7:09other company on earth could could get
7:11quickly. And so, they have a massive
7:14advantage there. They also are
7:16phenomenal hardware company, right? Like
7:20I am just so confused when when I found
7:25out this is and this is like a year ago,
7:28a little over a year ago when I found
7:30out that as like for sure that they
7:34still basically had an arm in a box was
7:36their robot program. I was like you got
7:38to be kidding me. I thought for sure
7:39they had something deep secret that they
7:42had moved the entire automotive team.
7:44remember they had that huge team in
7:46automotive and I know that they moved a
7:48lot of that team to robotics.
7:49>> I was like for sure they have to be
7:51cooking up something more interesting
7:52than that and it just doesn't feel like
7:54they are unless something has changed
7:56recently. But that would get me hyped on
7:59Apple because when we look at
8:01generalized robotics
8:03uh and humanoids, they're two very you
8:06have the the commercialized sector which
8:09is a multi-dea trillion dollar sector
8:12and then you have the home sector which
8:13is equally as big. But Apple is in this
8:16unique position to distribute robots
8:19into the home at scale in a trustworthy
8:23way. Cuz think about if you're going to
8:24put a robot in your house, what company
8:26would you trust more than Apple with
8:30their history, their closed ecosystem,
8:32right? Like also to already connect to
8:35all the personal data that they already
8:36have on you cuz there's only a few
8:38companies that have that level of data,
8:40right? I I'm just so stunned at the lack
8:43of vision there. I I don't know what
8:46happened that they're just missing out
8:48on embodied AI. They missed out on AI,
8:52but they didn't have to miss out on
8:54embodied AI, which is potentially going
8:57to be larger than AI because embodied AI
9:00is going to have massive moes involved.
9:03What about Amazon? I found this really
9:05interesting because you've been calling
9:06this for a really, really, really long
9:08time now. And recently, they had
9:11earnings. They destroyed earnings and
9:14they kind of like on top of that I would
9:17say quelled a lot of the fears around
9:19the company of Amazon like with the
9:20capex spending and stuff like that. So
9:22they they crushed the report and so the
9:24stock popped. It didn't even pop as much
9:26as I thought.
9:27>> No, now it's been down
9:28>> and since then it is just steadily
9:31declined and now it's nearly back where
9:34it was before the pop. It's certainly
9:37back where it was a few weeks before it
9:38popped with earnings. And it's like it
9:41like it priced it but then it just
9:43immediately went back down. I'm curious
9:44to hear your thoughts on that. What do
9:46you think's going on with the investor
9:47sentiment?
9:48>> It's wild, right?
9:49>> Are you still invested?
9:50>> Okay, hold on before Chris answers that
9:52quick PSA. You know how we always ask
9:54the guests what they're invested in? You
9:56can see exactly what Graham and I are
9:58invested in right now. Exactly. There's
10:00this app called Blossom Social and
10:02they're partnering with us on this and
10:03it's basically like a social media for
10:05investors where you could see exactly
10:07what people own, not just what they say
10:10they own.
10:10>> Grim and I both uploaded our entire
10:12portfolio so you can see everything that
10:14we're invested in and whether it's up or
10:15down dayto-day, which means we will
10:18finally be able to see which one of us
10:20is the better investor.
10:21>> Come on, we already know who that is.
10:23Jack,
10:23>> you know what, Graeme, you are right. We
10:25do know which one of us is better.
10:26Anyway, over a million people have
10:27downloaded it and it was actually ranked
10:29one of Canada's fastest growing
10:31startups. And what's really cool about
10:33this is that it was started by a
10:36subscriber who reached out. We started
10:39talking. He told me that he was watching
10:41for almost 10 years at this point, got
10:43inspired, started the idea, and now look
10:46at it. So, I just think it's neat to be
10:48able to support the people who also
10:49supported us when we were just starting.
10:51And now seeing all the success of this,
10:54wanted to be a part of it. I uploaded my
10:56portfolio. I love it. Plus, there is
10:58another reason that we're telling you
11:00this. Caleb Hammer is on Blossom. And
11:03right now, he has more followers than
11:04us, and we cannot let that happen. So,
11:06this is the mission. We need to pass
11:08Caleb Hammer. That's the goal. That's
11:10all we need. The app is totally free. It
11:12cost you nothing. And you can see how
11:14Jack and I are doing on there. We got to
11:15catch up to Caleb Hammer, please. The
11:17link is down below in the description.
11:18And it cost you nothing. It's free.
11:21Thank you so much. And now, let's get
11:22back to the conversation.
11:23>> Are you still invested? Oh yeah. I I
11:25mean I'm I'm out of my hyper levered
11:29options position like your weekly call
11:30options.
11:31>> Yeah. That that that's you know that
11:33that's all fully exited. I have a much
11:36smaller levered position in Amazon now.
11:39Uh it's still levered. I think Amazon is
11:43the perfect representation of the modern
11:46investor. The modern investor
11:50requires such a heavy level of dopamine
11:54hit with their investments that Amazon
11:57just is never sexy enough for them. Like
12:00it's wild to me. Amazon's just not
12:02willing to deliver what the modern
12:04investor wants. The modern investor is
12:06thinking in their head shortterm they
12:08want 3x. They want 4x potential. They
12:11want even with options they want 7 8 10x
12:14potential.
12:16Amazon is not one of those companies
12:18because of its size. You have a company
12:20like Tesla. You have a company like
12:22SpaceX that's of almost equivalent size,
12:26but Elon puts out a narrative, whether
12:28you believe it or not, that makes you
12:30think it could be a $30 trillion
12:31company, right? I don't think it can be,
12:35but
12:37investors are buying it to some extent.
12:39the investors are willing to get excited
12:41about SpaceX because they buy this this
12:44kind of blue sky vision about infinite
12:47like
12:48value right in the universe that only
12:51SpaceX can deliver. So, Amazon's not
12:55doing that, right? Amazon, they're the
12:57there are these companies that the
12:59market just completely forgets about
13:01because they just don't have that level
13:03of sexiness and they're just not
13:06punching the dopamine meter for the
13:08average investor. I personally love it
13:11because I know that there will be
13:13moments when the market's like, "Oh,
13:16shoot. Amazon really is special. Oh,
13:19wow. Those are big numbers. This is
13:21real." and it gives me opportunities to
13:24lever back into Amazon over and over
13:26again. So, I love to see Amazon falling
13:29here. I don't know when I'm going to
13:31make my big move to heavily lever back
13:33into it, but it's probably going to
13:34happen at some point in the next few
13:37months.
13:37>> Is there a certain price that you would
13:39relever back into Amazon?
13:41>> For me, it's not so much about price.
13:43I'm looking at what's taking the stock
13:45down. So, the stock first got taken down
13:48because of a story that came out out of
13:51the North Carolina DA's office or
13:54whatever, right? They're suing Amazon
13:56because they claim that Amazon was
14:00screwing advertisers out of like a penny
14:03per transaction
14:05>> by telling them that there was a nominal
14:08difference between the winning bid and
14:09the next bid, but then actually
14:11proactively making that spread larger
14:14over time, which is like deceptive
14:17advertising. And there's potentially $20
14:19billion in money that was taken from
14:22advertisers. So that's not a good story,
14:26but that's not a story that I find to be
14:28particularly impactful for the long term
14:30of Amazon, right? So like that case is
14:34going to go on for years. It will
14:36probably get settled and in 6 months, no
14:39one's going to be thinking about it or
14:40talking about it anymore. Yet the stock
14:42got hit pretty heavy on that one news
14:45story. Now today, the market comes out
14:48with the 10-year rate
14:50>> higher than anticipated. And again,
14:53people are thinking Amazon is going to
14:55be one of the companies that's hurt by
14:57that. So, I'm like, well, I just keep
14:59adding a little bit of Amazon every time
15:01this happens because if Amazon gets hit
15:04on a story that I don't think is
15:06particularly meaningful, then I'm going
15:08to go further into Amazon. If it gets
15:11hit by something that I think is
15:13meaningful, I'll reassess and maybe
15:16lighten up on my Amazon. Right? The
15:18reason why I don't think interest rates
15:20matter, I think we talked about this on
15:21the last episode, for a company like
15:23Amazon is Amazon is increasing their
15:27level. If you believe them, and I do,
15:29I've said this for a long time. Yes, the
15:32borrowing cost is is is getting larger
15:35for a company like Amazon. Also of
15:38course the opportunity cost of being
15:40invested in a risk asset like Amazon uh
15:45becomes higher when
15:47you can get a higher rate on on no risk
15:51money obviously which is what's
15:53happening
15:54>> but compared to the increase in growth
15:56at a company like Amazon due to this a
15:58AI super cycle these small halfpoint
16:02moves are ultimately meaningless okay so
16:04I think historically when You look at a
16:07company like Amazon and you see a half
16:09point interest rate move. That's bad.
16:13But we are not in historical times. Like
16:16we are in a very special moment when
16:18Amazon is increasing their growth from
16:20like 11% a year and a half ago to like
16:2416% or something like that next year. So
16:27like a half point move isn't the thing
16:30we should be paying attention to. But I
16:33know why the market does because for 20
16:35years that mattered. So you have this
16:38like muscle memory of higher interest
16:41rates. Bad for Amazon and other
16:43companies like it. But Amazon should be
16:46a class of company that is accelerating
16:49their growth at such a high rate where
16:51we should not be as concerned about
16:53interest rate movements as we were in
16:55the past.
16:56>> So what's your biggest trade coming up?
16:58I noticed you were posting about GTA.
17:00>> I Yeah. So, got get a lot of heat on
17:02this. I always get so much heat these
17:04days. Like, I don't know what's going
17:06on.
17:07>> You got more people following your every
17:09move. They see what you're doing and
17:10they're like, I'm going to bet my life
17:11savings on that.
17:13>> I think I need to like recalibrate what
17:15you just said because I'm not used to
17:16it.
17:17>> And it's something that I just got to
17:19get used to and not take personally.
17:21I'll say this,
17:24the market is dumber than it's ever been
17:27because everybody has a strong opinion,
17:30but so few people, less than ever, are
17:33actually willing to do the real work.
17:35And I'm not saying that I'm right about
17:37GTA and Take 2, but what I'm saying is
17:40at least I did the work and I could
17:43point you to to
17:45the rationale behind my thesis. And
17:48every time someone questions me on my
17:51take two GTA
17:54thesis, I'm like, "Well, what's yours?"
17:56Like, like, you're saying it's baked
17:58into the stock price. You keep saying
18:00the words. It's already baked into the
18:03price. What's baked into the price?
18:0630 million launch quarter units moved,
18:1040 million, 50 million. What average
18:14revenue per user year 1 is baked into
18:17the like no one can answer me like
18:19what's the benchmark?
18:20>> I feel like the answer is just a lot
18:21because everyone's been hyping this
18:24word. That's not a word.
18:25>> It is though. It's just it's this it's
18:27this infinite amount of hype that people
18:30are just attributing to this stock
18:32because GTA has just been teasing this
18:36for years. And it's it's not an amount
18:39you could measure just because it's
18:40infinite.
18:41>> There is no number. I I want to sell my
18:44my company to you and there's an
18:46infinite you can't even measure
18:49>> the amount of hype. Trust me though,
18:50it's infinite.
18:52We could see it's infinite because
18:53people are talking about it for years.
18:55>> This is so great.
18:56>> It's become a meme of like, oh, this
18:58happened before GTA did and for years.
19:01So, you don't think that's already been
19:03priced in to the nth degree for years?
19:06>> There has to be a number. Okay, you're
19:09part of it.
19:10>> It's just But there's so much excitement
19:12that you can't pinpoint it to be like
19:14this is how much the excitement's worth.
19:15It's infinite.
19:16>> I love that you just said this because
19:18you are actually the most pragmatic,
19:20most rational, smartest guy, and even
19:23you are part of this problem that I'm
19:25talking about.
19:26>> It's not a problem, but it's a reality.
19:28>> It's the reality that you cannot price
19:30that stock accurately at all because
19:32there's so much hype going into it.
19:34>> Okay. So, okay. So, let me let me let me
19:36give you the inverse of what you just
19:37said. If what you said is factually
19:40true, then you essentially a guaranteed
19:44lock to short the company because it's
19:47baked in infinite. So no matter what the
19:49number is that they actually hit, it's
19:51going to be a disappointment.
19:52>> I almost tend to agree,
19:55but I would never short because you
19:57never know. It could be short-term hype
19:59that just skyrockets this thing and it
20:02becomes a meme a little bit. like GoPro
20:04was becoming this like, oh, let's yolo
20:06into GoPro cuz Markiplier is doing it.
20:08It's like you never know. You can't
20:10predict that. But but
20:12>> okay, here's what I will admit to.
20:15Whether I agree with you or not, what
20:18you just said is the new norm and it's
20:21the reality of today's market and I need
20:23to accept that. And that's what I've
20:25come to learn over the last few days.
20:27Now guys, I'm going to age myself, but I
20:30was trading GTA's release on Take 2 in
20:341999. Okay? You don't know this about
20:37me, but like trading video game launches
20:39used to be one of my biggest trades back
20:41in the late '9s, early 2000s, right?
20:44I've been doing this a really long time.
20:46And back then, the people that traded
20:50Take 2 Interactive on GTA were really
20:52smart. And we had a very like uh a
20:58structural benchmark for what was
21:01anticipated and who thought they would
21:04come out above or below. And we were all
21:07placing our bets and we all put a
21:08tremendous amount of work into whether
21:11or not we think the company would beat
21:13or miss based on this many units moved.
21:17that no longer exists because now every
21:19investor, yeah, we do have unit
21:22estimates that range between 30 million
21:25and 50 million for calendar year 1 for
21:29GTA, right? I personally think uh that
21:33based on the initial reactions of the
21:37first gameplay that came out last week
21:39that we will be at the high end of that,
21:41if not beyond the high end of that,
21:43which is why I took a long position in
21:45in in take two. But the market isn't
21:47even thinking about that because the
21:49market today's market in the people
21:51investing in take 2 don't even know what
21:55the projected unit sales are by sellside
21:57banks or by analyst or like they don't
22:00even care. They're just like they're
22:02they're investing in take 2 or shorting
22:04it or talking about it based on vibes.
22:06And it drives me actually insane because
22:10I read through, no joke, like 30,000
22:13organic comments on that Netflix
22:16trailer. And I'm so optimistic based on
22:20what I read that I was like, this is a
22:22best case scenario. And my entire thesis
22:26on Take 2 in GTA
22:29revolves around depth of interest in
22:32gameplay, which by the way is yet to be
22:35determined, but I only have 27 minutes
22:37so far to determine that. And based on
22:40the reactions on that 27 minutes, I
22:42think it's highly likely that we are
22:44going to have a really strong depth of
22:47interest in gameplay, the the deeper
22:50that interest, the easier it will be for
22:53Take 2 and Rockstar to monetize that
22:56game when they come out with online. And
22:59the big question is, can they monetize
23:01it at $20 per active monthly user or $60
23:06per active monthly user? And if it's
23:08closer to $60 per monthly active user,
23:11if the number of active users is like 50
23:1460 million plus, dude, you could see
23:17Take 2 stock double. So like I'm being
23:20very rational and pragmatic about the
23:24trade about like my scenario analysis
23:28and like what cues I'm looking for to
23:31identify that scenario playing out
23:34versus that scenario out. The problem is
23:37that almost no other investor is doing
23:39what I'm doing. So even if I'm right
23:42right now, it's not going to be
23:43reflective in the stock because I crunch
23:46the numbers a day before everybody else
23:47cuz I'm like I'm going through doing
23:49what I do and I'm thinking, okay, I just
23:52fast traded this. I I think this
23:54scenario is going to play out and 3 days
23:56later everyone else is going to see it.
23:58Well, 3 days later, no one's seeing it
24:00cuz no one everyone's too lazy to do the
24:03work that I'm doing. They're not even
24:04running scenario analysis. They're not
24:06even doing any type of real work to
24:09assess if they're likely to come up
24:12above the the recognized benchmark for
24:15unit sales for for for arpoo. Like no
24:19one does the work anymore.
24:20>> Yeah. But but that means all of your
24:22work is for nothing because people are
24:23buying based off vibes.
24:25>> Yes.
24:25>> And that's already priced in and you
24:27can't price in the vibes.
24:28>> Yeah. And so like I have to be honest
24:31with the reality of the market and
24:33that's something that I've come to terms
24:35with over the fa past few days because
24:37what happened guys was there was a rumor
24:39that came out that they're going to
24:41delay online for 2 years and it's not
24:45because they can't put out online if if
24:47if that rumor were to be true it's
24:49because Rockstar wants it to be true.
24:51It's because they they think there's a
24:53strategic reason to hold two years. I
24:55don't think they're holding out two
24:56years. I don't think that's going to
24:57happen with GTA 5. They released online
25:02I think like 17 days after the console
25:07the normal version came out. Okay. So,
25:10and by the way, what's really
25:11fascinating here is like like Rockstar
25:14and GTA, they were the innovators that
25:17took microtransactions
25:19to AAAS console gaming and prove that
25:23you could generate billions of dollars
25:25from a AAA console game through GTA.
25:29Even this year, 13 years after GTA 5
25:32came out, they're generating like 600
25:34million from microtransactions from a
25:3613-year-old game. Okay. So, if you run
25:40the numbers, I think like when I run all
25:43my scenario analysis out, I think
25:45there's a reasonable shot that they
25:47could land somewhere between two and $3
25:50billion a year through microtransactions
25:54with GTA 6. Okay. with the online
25:57version. That's on top of selling 50 60
26:01million potential copies at an average
26:04price of like 90s something dollars
26:06because almost everyone's buying the
26:08$100 copy versus the $80 copy, right?
26:10And so there was also news that came out
26:13from Sensor Tower. Sensor Tower is like
26:16the tracking service for games. And
26:18again, no one does their research, so no
26:21one even knows where these numbers come
26:23from. Sensor Tower is a company that
26:26historically only does research on Steam
26:30games. Okay? So, when they do when they
26:32put out their estimates on how many
26:34pre-sales of a Steam game, they're
26:36usually off by 3 or 4%. This is the
26:40first time ever that they're putting out
26:42an estimate in the last few months. They
26:43just started doing this on a console
26:46game. So, the methodology they're using
26:48is unknown. They don't have access to
26:50all the things you have access to on a
26:52Steam game, which is they've been doing
26:54it for years and years and years. They
26:56they've been able to refine their
26:58numbers, right? We don't even know if
27:00they're right or not. But what they're
27:01saying is that the pre-sales are only
27:03like 4.8 million. And people are like,
27:06"Dude, that feels low." Well, of course
27:09it's low. Even if they're right,
27:13it doesn't matter because this is only a
27:16digital game. Who the hell was
27:18pre-ordering a digital game? You go back
27:20to GTA 5 in 2013 and I want to say they
27:24had 7 million pre-sales, but that was a
27:28hard game. That wasn't a digital game.
27:31You're going to you're going to
27:32pre-order that game because if you don't
27:33pre-order it, you might not have it on
27:35day one. This is only digital. You don't
27:38need to pre-order.
27:39>> So, why don't you invest just a little
27:41downstream of that and think, well,
27:43people are probably going to be drinking
27:44a lot of energy drinks. People are
27:46probably going to be buying comfier
27:48chairs, better monitors, and like go a
27:51step beyond
27:53this.
27:54>> You can and there are some actually
27:57really
27:58there are some interesting secondary
28:01trades here
28:02>> or things to short like if people are
28:04spending more money on video games, you
28:07know, probably short
28:08>> short Barnes & Noble.
28:09>> Yeah. Or like the dating market somehow.
28:11Maybe like, you know, the the apps are
28:13really going to see, you know, lower
28:15numbers.
28:15>> Oh, that that's fair. So, so
28:18>> I was thinking about we're actually
28:19going to do a separate like whole dumb
28:21money just another GTA episode. We're
28:22talking about all these secondary
28:23trades, but like I'll just give you some
28:24of them like like Door Dash
28:27>> is going to do phenomenal. I actually
28:30told my restaurant group, and I bet they
28:34haven't done it yet because they never
28:35listened to me, but I told them that I
28:37wanted to have a GTA delivery special
28:41where we come up with like packages of
28:44food that dudes would want to eat while
28:47playing GTA.
28:49No,
28:50>> something that doesn't get your fingers
28:51sticking.
28:52>> Yeah. But listen, it's it's just a way
28:54to have fun with it. We can do social
28:56media, right? And like I want every
28:58gamer in Dallas
29:00>> pizzas.
29:01>> Yeah, dude. Dude, we already have we
29:02already have all the pizzas. We have all
29:04that stuff at my restaurant. So like I
29:05want every GTA gamer in Dallas thinking
29:08Chelsea Corner, Milo's, let's order from
29:10them cuz I saw their Instagram. I saw
29:12that they're doing GTA specials. Let's
29:14just make it fun, man. Let's just lean
29:16into this because like for 60 days,
29:18dude, do you know how much Door Dash is
29:20going to be ordered in America? Okay,
29:23it's like all right, let's just say they
29:25do. Let's just say they do 40. Let's
29:28just say they do 30 million by but on
29:31the first week. Okay. Roughly onethird
29:35of historically of GTA's gamers are in
29:38the US. Twothirds are are foreign.
29:41Again, I honestly feel that I'm the only
29:45person that knows all this. Like cuz
29:47investors are so lazy. Do they even read
29:49the earnings report? Do they even know
29:51anything about Take 2 Interactive? I'm
29:52just like so many investors will get on
29:54X and start chiming off at me. I'm like,
29:57have you even done one minute of actual
29:59work on what you're talking about? I
30:02know so much about this franchise. I
30:04have 26 years 27 years of work that I've
30:09done on GTA. Okay, I might be totally
30:12wrong, but I'm informed. You know what
30:15I'm saying? Like, and people that are
30:17mouththing off at me, maybe they're
30:19right. Maybe they'll get lucky and
30:21they're right, but like they're not they
30:22haven't even done the work. I'm like,
30:23can we at least have an intelligent
30:25conversation? I would love nothing more,
30:29nothing more, and I've asked people to
30:31do this than to actually comment on my
30:34exost on GTA with wellthoughtout
30:39devil's advocate takes using data and
30:42perspective and like benchmarks.
30:46I invite that. You guys know that. I
30:48love that. That's what I love. But I
30:51can't have intelligent discourse with
30:53investors anymore because it feels like
30:55there's no intelligent investors.
30:57Everybody's surface level. Everyone's
30:59for vibes. Everyone's for dopamine hits.
31:02And like it sucks. I love that there's
31:04so many investors, but I wish people
31:06would just chill out and actually do a
31:07little bit of homework and let's have
31:09some intelligent discourse on like these
31:11narratives and these thesis and these
31:13takes and like these trades that like
31:15I'm putting on or they're putting on.
31:17But I think Door Dash can connect. 10
31:19million guys in the US are going to be
31:22playing GTA non-stop for like starting
31:24November whatever 17th or the end of the
31:26year.
31:27>> Is that a confirmed release date or
31:30could this be something they're going to
31:31be going to be January?
31:33>> It's Listen, it's always possible.
31:36>> But dude, if they delay that, that would
31:39be catastrophic because you want to
31:42release it going into the holiday season
31:44for so many reasons. Kids are getting
31:46off of school. It's winter time. Like
31:49you're stuck at your house. Like half
31:51the country. It's miserable. You want to
31:53you want a game, right? Like
31:55>> dude, they need they can't miss that. If
31:58they miss that release, Take Two is
31:59going to fall through the floor. No
32:00doubt about it. 10 million guys ordering
32:04food nonstop. Okay. It's definitely
32:07going to help Door Dash. Probably going
32:08to help Uber through Uber Eats, right?
32:10Um there are some other plays here too.
32:12You saw that that this movie studios
32:15were preparing saying that they were
32:16expecting
32:17>> yes it was going to impact viewership
32:20>> there there's probably some pretty fun
32:22secondary trades to be had but I still
32:26think the main trade is on take two. I
32:29just don't have any sense for timing
32:31because it's really difficult for me to
32:34assess when other investors are going to
32:37see even if I'm right when will other
32:40investors start to see what I'm seeing
32:44will take 2 has been pretty quiet with
32:47numbers so will they even come out and
32:49say we have this many they haven't done
32:51it have this many pre-orders they said
32:53one thing they said something like the
32:56number of pre-orders I think this was in
32:57the first week was unprecedented.
33:00Unprecedented. Okay. So, like, and
33:03again, who the hell is pre-ordering a
33:06digital game? You could just order it
33:09the day of. There's no difference. So,
33:11like, I think the fact that they have
33:12almost 5 million pre-orders according to
33:14Sensor Tower, and maybe it's six or
33:16seven or eight cuz they've never done
33:17this before with a console game and and
33:20had a history.
33:22Like, I think that's pretty great. Um,
33:26and I think there could be a moment here
33:28when the market wakes up to take two.
33:31I'll tell you the thing I'm most excited
33:32about about GTA though. You could tell
33:34me if you think I'm wrong. I've been
33:35talking about this in a lot of different
33:36ways. There is this going back to the SW
33:40remember I brought that swatch watch
33:41back to you guys and we're talking about
33:43how people just love to wait hours for
33:45Fro yo or for like the new hot
33:48sweatshirt release or the or the skin
33:50care release.
33:51>> Trader Joe's bag,
33:52>> dude. Trader Joe, it doesn't matter what
33:53it people love. Why? Why are they doing
33:55this? Like I think people are really
33:58thirsting for like human connection and
34:01a cultural moment of connectivity where
34:03we're all doing something together cuz
34:05we rarely do things together anymore. We
34:07used to all watch TV on Thursday night
34:10with Seinfeld and Friends and all that
34:12stuff and like nobody and then even Game
34:14of Thrones, right? Or whatever it was.
34:16Like we have so few cultural moments
34:19where we're able to bond as humans. I
34:21think the Olympics was one of those for
34:23a little bit this year and it was really
34:24cool to see or like when you have these
34:26limited releases people love lining up I
34:29think because they just want to feel
34:30like next to other humans that care
34:32about the same thing they do. I think
34:34GTA is a magical moment for our culture
34:38and that is the most crossgeneral
34:41crossgenerational game we've ever seen.
34:44There are guys in their like 40, they
34:47grew up with this, right? Like the the
34:49first GTA, multiple generations grew up
34:52with GTA. I'm reading comments where
34:55guys are like, "Dude, I had to get
34:56permission from my parents to play this
34:58game." And they're like, "No, I'm not
35:00getting permission from my girlfriend
35:01now." You know what I'm saying? Like,
35:02it's really funny. But I think what's
35:05going to happen is people are go this
35:09game's going to come out and if you're
35:11not playing it, you're going to feel
35:12that you're getting left out of
35:14something really special, like a
35:16historic moment, at least a guy moment,
35:18right?
35:18>> Are you going to play it?
35:19>> So, I don't play a lot of video games
35:21myself. But I will tell you this. I will
35:23tell you this. Hold on. I did play I
35:25have played GTA historically.
35:27>> And for research or for fun?
35:28>> For fun. No, for fun. Which one? Um,
35:31>> going all the way back to 99. Okay. And
35:33then I play GTA 5, but now I have a son.
35:36He's 16 and all of his buddies are going
35:38to be playing.
35:39>> I will be in the room.
35:41>> Okay. Like, so whether I I will play it
35:43a little bit myself,
35:45>> but whether I'm like actively playing it
35:47myself, trust me, I'm going to be in the
35:49room with my son and his friends, like
35:51living through them, cuz like I will
35:53almost have more fun watching them play
35:56than like I will get on and play some,
35:58but I'm not going to be like spending
36:00hours upon hours like melting into the
36:03GTA world.
36:04>> That did remind me. I remember in high
36:06school there was something. I think it
36:07was called Halo Tuesday and it was all
36:10the kids took off the Tuesday to play
36:13Halo and it wasn't just like my school.
36:15It was like the whole county Halo
36:18Tuesday to play Halo. Dude, I we don't
36:21get this much anymore, guys. Like I just
36:24think this is going to be one of those
36:26cultural moments that people lean into.
36:28And what's going to happen is a lot of
36:31guys don't have friends to hang out
36:33with. We live in a lonely system. We
36:35know this. Everyone's going through what
36:36they call it the male
36:38>> loneliness epidemic.
36:40>> And so if you're one of the many many
36:42millions, probably tens of millions of
36:44guys that are sitting alone in your
36:46apartment or your house and you you're
36:50part of that epidemic, you feel a sense
36:52of connectivity by buying GTA and
36:56playing it. I hate to say it, but like
36:57you're doing the same thing that every
37:00other guy is doing from November,
37:02whatever through the end of the year,
37:05and you're part of something and you're
37:07not alone. And you can go on forums and
37:09talk about it. You could like when the
37:11online comes out, you could be part of
37:13that. I actually think this is even
37:16though this game is kind of evil in many
37:18ways, I think it's an important positive
37:20thing for connectivity for this this
37:23younger generation and the older
37:25generation as well. And it's something
37:26we can all connect to together and
37:28hopefully I can make money off of.
37:29>> I agree. I think if you're not a part of
37:31these cultural movements, then you do
37:34kind of get FOMO. Like even as crazy as
37:37this comparison is, but similar to
37:39Adrian's kickback. Do you remember that?
37:41>> No.
37:42>> Oh, I remember that. Adrian's kickback.
37:44It was a thing that was posted on like
37:46Tik Tok and everyone. It was a It was
37:49something I think that meant to be a
37:50text from one individual to another.
37:52>> I thought it was Facebook or maybe it
37:53was Facebook, but it accidentally got
37:55posted publicly. It might have been a
37:57Facebook post that was supposed to be a
37:58message or private Facebook and it was
38:00like, "Hey bro, are you going to go to
38:01Adrian's kickback?"
38:03>> And then it just went like wildfire all
38:07over social media. And like then
38:10actually I think like tens of thousands
38:12if not hundreds of thousands of people
38:14all met in Huntington Beach for Adrian's
38:16Kickback. I
38:16>> do remember this. This like seven years
38:18ago maybe.
38:19>> Yeah, maybe a little less than that. It
38:21might have been like 2021ish.
38:24Uh but yeah, everyone met up for
38:25Adrian's kickback and then ever they,
38:28you know, not rioted, but like it ended
38:31up not in the greatest way, but it was
38:32one of those things that like you felt
38:35like you were a part of something if you
38:37went or if you knew about it, if you
38:40knew someone that went. You didn't want
38:41to know that Adrian's kickback was going
38:44on that night and not check Snap Maps or
38:47check like, you know, Tik Tok to see
38:49what it was like. I feel like also
38:52gaming is about to shift and this is
38:55probably a final moment for this style
38:57of game too. Like no one's going to
39:00spend 13 years building a game ever
39:02again. Uh Rockstar won't do it. This is
39:05the last GTA that will ever come out.
39:07They'll do nothing but expansion packs.
39:09No, they could they'll they'll expand
39:11off this.
39:12>> They won't spend 13 years. But couldn't
39:13AI eventually get so good that it's
39:15changing in the moment and you could
39:17create a video game just like that that
39:18evolves? I think that I think that's
39:20what this I think that's what they'll do
39:22here. They'll use AI to evolve this
39:26beyond, right? But they're not gonna be
39:28I don't think it's going to be like GTA
39:297.
39:31>> I think they've come out and basically
39:32said that's the plan is not to have GTA
39:347, but to like build this out. They'll
39:36spend a decade using AI to do all that
39:38stuff and they'll expand to other
39:40cities, but it'll be part of this
39:41universe um and this character set
39:44>> I think. Um, but it is kind of like a
39:48last moment and I think it's almost
39:51spiritual. I know that sounds crazy, but
39:53like in a world in a time when we don't
39:56have a lot of like spiritual moments
39:58like especially for guys, I think guys
40:01need this right now. And I cuz listen,
40:04you're talking to someone that's read
40:05more comments, like actual comments, not
40:09from investors, but from people that are
40:11just regular people who watched that
40:13video on Netflix or YouTube and just
40:16shared their comments like about how
40:18excited they are about how they've been
40:20waiting for this. And like I think a lot
40:22of these people that like shoot for
40:24clicks by saying outrageous things like
40:27once you get past that the the breath
40:30and depth of interest in this release
40:32there's something really special about
40:33to happen guys. People been waiting 10
40:35plus years for this. Like they have and
40:38it's going to be a magical moment. And I
40:41think people are underappreciating
40:45how big this can be for Take 2
40:47Interactive because they could generate
40:50billions a year off microtransactions
40:52if the game play is as good as it
40:55appears to be. And again, all the things
40:57that people are saying is a negative, I
41:00have have a rebuttal against. Like
41:03people are like, "Oh, but the story line
41:05doesn't look." They didn't give you any
41:06story line. It was a 27minute
41:09like gameplay. There's specifically not
41:13giving you any story line, guys. Um like
41:17you could look through every single
41:19thing that someone said might be a
41:21negative about this and it just makes no
41:22sense to me at all. Um I thought it was
41:27probably a 10 of 10 trailer in terms of
41:29what I was expecting. I was expecting
41:31something way worse. And I was expecting
41:33the backlash of that 27minute trailer to
41:36be pretty rough. And I was stunned how
41:40all the truly
41:42like like engaged gamers, the people
41:45that do this for a living, the people
41:47that love it, like their actual organic
41:50reactions to this were phenomenal.
41:53>> How much money do you expect to put on
41:55that investment? I mean, I have millions
41:57in it right now, but it's just an equity
41:59trade. I could see myself I'm This is
42:03not going to be an Amazon type of thing,
42:04guys, right? But like, I could see
42:06myself putting a million dollar options
42:08trade on Take Two. In my head, I have
42:10this little thing. I kind of want to
42:12make a million dollars or more on on on
42:14GTA. Like, I was just It's a stupid
42:16thing, but I was like, I don't play the
42:18game, but I play the stock. So, like I I
42:20want to make a million dollars on G on
42:22the GTA release. if there's an
42:24opportunity to do it. Um, I'll let you
42:26know if I pull that off or maybe I might
42:28lose a million.
42:28>> Would you be upset if you only made
42:30$875,000?
42:32>> No, I wouldn't be upset. But like I kind
42:34of like just
42:35>> But you want that million,
42:36>> you know? Like you you know guys that
42:39like part of this is a game for me. I
42:40love it and I have fun with it. So like
42:42in my head I'm like it would be cool to
42:44make a million dollars on GTA. Yeah,
42:45it'd be cool. And like so like in my
42:49head I'm trying to make a million
42:50dollars on GTA. Um, that's how I'm
42:53playing the game.
42:53>> Yeah.
42:54>> All right.
42:54>> It's actually really perfect timing
42:56because we filmed with Steve Hamilton
42:58recently and he said the one license
43:00plate he couldn't get was GTA IRL and
43:04right after the podcast I looked online
43:06in Vegas. It was available. No.
43:08>> And so I bought the license plate GTA
43:12space IRL.
43:14>> What car are you putting it on?
43:15>> Probably the Lotus Avora.
43:17>> The Miami blue Lotus Avora with orange
43:20accents. It's kind of a crazy car to put
43:22GTA IRL,
43:23>> but it makes me think, man, the timing.
43:25If I get that plate at the same time as
43:27the release, part of me is thinking
43:28maybe I should just flip that plate
43:30>> and just post it online and say like,
43:32who wants this plate? See what I can get
43:34for
43:34>> So, not flip it to someone that's going
43:36to use it in Nevada, but someone that
43:39would buy it as like
43:40>> No, no, it has to be used in Nevada.
43:42>> Okay. Okay.
43:43>> Because it's state specific, so it says
43:44Nevada on it. If someone is registering
43:47a car in Nevada and they want GTA IRL,
43:49how much is that plate worth? Steve
43:52couldn't get it in Chicago. If I get it
43:55in Nevada, I'm I'm assuming it's going
43:57to be approved because they didn't say
43:59no.
43:59>> Dude, that is so badass. Like you got
44:02that. That's
44:03>> I think the plate's got to be worth like
44:04five grand.
44:05>> Dude, it Could you imagine having that
44:06in Florida?
44:08Oh, dude, that
44:09>> Florida LA would be another one.
44:11>> That'd be insane. I'm going I Have you
44:14checked Texas? I got to do that like the
44:16second we're done taping. Dude, that
44:18would be cool. I don't know if it's
44:20appropriate for my pickup truck, but I
44:23will.
44:24>> How about you should get it, but only
44:26put it on your car if you make a million
44:29>> in GTA. And if you don't, you could
44:32always just sell. I guarantee there is
44:33so many people here with exotics.
44:35>> Can you sell a license plate though?
44:37>> GTA IRL is not available in Florida.
44:41>> How about Texas? Whoever is watching
44:43this, if you're not in Nevada or Texas
44:46or Chicago, look it up because I I
44:50actually think it's a pretty funny
44:51plate.
44:52>> It's an awesome plate.
44:53>> Uh Steve said it
44:55>> it's not available.
44:56>> And then show the
44:57>> That's cool.
44:57>> Do a Yeah,
44:58>> that would be cool.
44:59>> That's an awesome plate.
45:00>> That that that's what it should look
45:02like.
45:03>> Oh, that's so clean.
45:04>> Especially in the black. What I really
45:06wanted in Vegas is they have a police
45:09badge license plate. It's black with a
45:12police badge on the lefth hand side. I
45:14wanted GTA IRL with the police badge,
45:17but you could only have like four
45:19characters on that.
45:20>> Oh,
45:20>> so it was a little short, but I wanted
45:22that one. I thought it would be perfect.
45:24>> That's clean, dude. That's It's pretty
45:27sweet.
45:27>> What are your thoughts on GoPro?
45:30>> No thoughts. I mean, I
45:32>> just vibes.
45:33>> 100% just vibes. People were texting me
45:37the GoPro chart and I was like, "Oh god,
45:40here we go again." And so, like, every
45:42time this happens, I get so annoyed if
45:46it actually ends up running that I have
45:48to go buy some just for my FOMO cuz I
45:53know what's going to happen. My entire
45:55feed's going to get flooded. Like, what
45:56if GoPro went to $4, $5?
46:00>> It It would annoy me so much. So, I have
46:02to buy just enough to where it won't
46:05annoy me, but not too much to where I
46:07care if it doesn't happen. And that's
46:09exactly what I did.
46:10>> How much did you buy?
46:12>> I bought uh I think it was like $40,000
46:15of GoPro and I sold it. And I think I
46:18made the tiniest amount of money on it.
46:20Like I got to look to see if it was a
46:22profit or loss. I think it was a slight
46:24profit. You know what's really
46:25interesting to me is that Markiplier
46:27bought 8.5% of the company, but when he
46:30bought in the market cap of GoPro was
46:33only like 60 million bucks. So, he
46:37invested probably around $8 million in
46:39GoPro. I don't know his affiliation with
46:41GoPro or if he just liked the company or
46:43if he talked to someone. And uh because
46:46at eight and a half% that's very
46:47intentional that he's going public about
46:50his
46:51>> investment. Yeah. To that degree. So, I
46:54think that was definitely a publicity
46:56play. It's not like I just really like
46:58the stock that much, maybe, but it
47:01didn't cost him that much money. I mean,
47:04we're talking about like he put like $5
47:05million in GoPro.
47:06>> Yeah. And he won, right?
47:08>> He did. And he turned that into probably
47:10$20 million total.
47:11>> It's It's a insane trade. Honestly, it's
47:14a it's a risky trade,
47:16>> but I feel like I'm just I'm just saying
47:18if you came out and said, "Hey, I put $5
47:20million in this stock and it made you
47:22like a 10% owner in this company."
47:26>> I'm not saying you should do that. It's
47:28just not my thing.
47:29>> But if it comes out like Chris Camilo
47:30buys 10% in that,
47:32>> are you advocating for it? I'm just I'm
47:34not saying you should do but I'm just
47:36hypothetically
47:38>> it comes out that you own like a big
47:40majority you know you're a majority that
47:43dude that's a you know what
47:45>> I don't
47:45>> if if you think it's a great idea
47:48>> the only time I considered something
47:50like that and it was during the pandemic
47:53was Build-a- Bear. I actually I I went
47:56Holy crap.
47:57>> I went really deep into Build-A-Bear.
48:00Like I was interviewing Build-A-Bear
48:02stores constantly.
48:03>> You would be probably a billionaire.
48:05>> I know. So like the one of the top
48:07Build-A-Bear investors was a friend and
48:09we were sharing intel all the time and I
48:13was like, "Dude, this company is
48:15insanely underval." I had a huge trade
48:17on Build-A-Bear. Like I made a insane
48:19amount of money on Build-A-Bear during
48:21the pandemic, but I was like, they're
48:23just like one hit product away. Like
48:26they it doesn't take much to move the
48:28needle for that company. It was crazy
48:30how low it was valued. And I was and I
48:32had some guys, some hedge fun guys,
48:34they're like, "Dude, you should just buy
48:36a piece of like I had a plan for
48:37Build-A-Bear, like like what we can do
48:39with them." And they're like, "Dude, you
48:41should do it." Like and I was like, "It
48:43would work, but I'm I don't want I don't
48:46want the weight of that on my
48:47shoulders." like I don't want a job
48:48again. I don't want to be a CEO of a
48:50company again. Like I'm those days are
48:52long gone. But that would have been that
48:55would have been fun cuz I was going to
48:56like I was going to merge Build-A-Bear
48:58into the collectible space and we're
49:00going to do all kinds of crazy collabs
49:02cuz I didn't feel like they were doing
49:03enough collabs and I was like there are
49:05some wild Build a Bear collabs that we
49:08could be doing that would be so easy to
49:10do. we would get so much traction on
49:13them. And I was gonna basically take the
49:15Crocs model and move it to Build-A-Bear.
49:18And
49:20I think it would have worked. And they
49:22do a little bit of that, but they don't
49:23do enough of it. I I feel like I feel
49:25like they just need a really good
49:27marketing content social arm to that
49:30company that they just they've just
49:32never really had. they go for these big
49:35brand deals with like Disney or whatever
49:38when they should be doing like really
49:40like creative, gutsy, cool
49:44collaborations
49:45uh on Build the Bear. So, like that was
49:47basically my plan. And I I feel like
49:50there's so many things you could do with
49:51the bear. Like there's just a lot of
49:53stuff you can do to make it even more
49:54fun and more dynamic to have not just
49:57kids going in, but have more adults
49:58going in all the time doing stuff. So, I
50:03mean, you know how many like adult women
50:05do like all like the surprise stuff with
50:07like Dude, it's it's
50:10love it.
50:11>> Yeah. And I I felt like Build-A-B Bear
50:12Management didn't really fully
50:14understand the culture of like like that
50:18adult uh like treasure hunting or like
50:22getting your niche thing like
50:24collectible like limited release and
50:27using those limited release schedules to
50:30get more hype just to get people on the
50:32brand in the store and then they happen
50:34to get other stuff too.
50:35>> Yeah, 100%. cuz the like the mom or
50:38whatever goes in or someone goes in for
50:40that little thing and they get a couple
50:41presents for their niece or this or
50:43that, right?
50:45I'm not going to do it. But like but
50:47like that would have been a fun one.
50:49>> I would love to see a Camila take over.
50:51>> Yeah. Not going to happen, guys. And I'm
50:53just having fun doing what I do now. Now
50:56I got to already I got to already deal
50:58with all these the 30 or 40 million new
51:00investors who are vibe investing,
51:01critiquing everything I say every day.
51:04What market are you most bullish on that
51:07you can't invest in?
51:08>> I think embodied AI is a tough one for
51:11people to invest in. I could invest in
51:13it, but most people can't because it's
51:15still private, right?
51:16>> Yeah. But if you could throw your money
51:17into just like a generalized fund of a
51:19certain market, what would it be?
51:21>> I actually think it's it's content. You
51:24know, I've talked about this guys. I
51:25think we're going through a massive
51:27transition from conventional content to
51:31new media. I think the world of
51:34podcasting and two guys and a mic, no
51:37offense here, but I think was podcasting
51:401.0. I think the next kind of like phase
51:45of entertainment, phase of media is
51:48going to be something that kind of sits
51:49between this first generation of
51:52podcasting and what we know of as as TV.
51:57And I think there are people who are
52:01amazing content creators that are going
52:04to be pushing the limits of that space
52:06the next 5 years. And I think they will
52:08become increasingly valuable as a lot of
52:10the old school media companies are
52:13looking to invest in like new media and
52:16what that looks like. Because guys, we
52:18it's actually crazy.
52:21Nobody watches TV anymore. Like other
52:24than maybe some sports and maybe some
52:26like huge viral programming on Netflix,
52:31>> nobody watches TV cuz I have not watched
52:35one thing this year. I watch a few
52:37episodes of of like Stacey's show with
52:39my wife because it was like going back
52:42to a time when some characters that we
52:44knew from back in the day, but like I
52:48can't do it. Like I'm on a text thread
52:49with these guys who are like talking
52:51about all these great TV shows, they're
52:52all in their 40s and 50s. I'm like,
52:55"Dude, that sounds really good." I start
52:56I put the I can't do it. I put the show
52:58on, I'm 10 minutes in, I'm back to
53:00TikTok. I'm back to my short form media.
53:02like my mind has been corrupted by short
53:06form media and now but the learning from
53:09that is every single 20some year old
53:12that's their brain
53:14>> but it's bad it's it's I've started to
53:17really
53:18uh notice it now and I've I've stopped
53:20myself actually from watching shorts and
53:24I've cut down dramatically because I
53:25remember just looking around at everyone
53:27is just like sitting there like a zombie
53:28is like
53:33you're
53:33>> and it's in when you start to see it and
53:36notice it. Someone was joking on Twitter
53:38and they said that scrolling was like a
53:40low class behavior. And when I saw when
53:44when that it just clicked to me it's
53:46like you will never see someone who's
53:48like doing something who's really
53:49successful sitting on their phone
53:52scrolling
53:53>> and it just like clicked for me. It's
53:55like holy the amount of time that you
53:57waste
53:58>> scrolling. I hate myself for I mean it's
54:00my job.
54:00>> Yeah.
54:01>> But I still hate myself for it. Cuz last
54:03night I found myself scrolling for
54:08Bethany Frankle Burning Man videos to
54:12start up, which they did. And I was
54:14like, dude, I hate myself so much. I
54:16can't believe that like rather than
54:18watching like one of these highquality
54:20shows that my buddies are talking about,
54:23I'm watching Bethany Frankle arriving at
54:27Burning Man and I was like, "This is
54:29disgusting. This is like the lowest of
54:32all lowquality
54:35behavior right now."
54:36>> Bethany Frankle.
54:37>> I don't know who she
54:38>> dude. Wow. Guys,
54:41>> I I had this talk with I had this talk
54:43with someone a week ago about generation
54:47gaps.
54:47>> I have no idea. I've never seen her.
54:49>> And and
54:51>> yeah, dude, she's like she's from that
54:54she's the OG from Housewives. She's like
54:56huge on I mean I don't like her. Okay. I
55:00hate watcher. I hate watcher as most
55:02people do. But like sometimes I feel I
55:05have a generation like divide with
55:09people that are 15 20 years younger than
55:11me cuz I'm still 10 years younger than
55:13them in my brain. And like you guys
55:14right now to me are my generation divide
55:16but you're older than me instead of
55:18you're actually 20 years younger than
55:20me. Dude, how do you know who Bethany
55:23Frankle is?
55:24>> See, but this this is the problem.
55:26>> This is the problem. Like when your mind
55:27is melted on TikTok, that's all you
55:30know. And it's disgusting. But I just
55:32think we're going to look back like uh
55:34cigarettes were so socially acceptable
55:37back in the day and there's so many
55:38things that we did that were like, "Oh
55:39my god, we had no idea they were that
55:41harmful." I think we'll look back at
55:43shorts and the algorithm and scrolling
55:45of the impact that has to your brain and
55:48we're going to have a divide of people,
55:51those who were raised on shorts and
55:53those who were not.
55:54>> And it's going to be like a birth defect
55:57to some degree of like, oh, your parents
55:59smoked. Well, you you know, well, they
56:01were pregnant and you know, you don't
56:02have as quite of a leg up as those whose
56:06parents didn't do that.
56:07>> I agree with you. It's really bad. I
56:08feel terrible when I'm doing it. It's
56:11just like,
56:12>> can you stop? Could you stop yourself?
56:14>> No.
56:15>> Is it is it because you rationalize it
56:16as research or is it an addiction or is
56:19it like, hey, this gives me alpha in the
56:21market and the market is the most
56:22important and this gets me there.
56:24>> Both are true. Like I have to do it cuz
56:28I have to stay in the weeds of culture
56:31and consumer behavior and what people
56:33are talking about, what they're thinking
56:35about, where they're going, what they're
56:36spending their money on, what they care
56:37about, how they spend their time, who
56:39they want to give attention to. If I
56:42lose that, then I lose my edge in the
56:43market.
56:44>> Mhm.
56:45>> But sometimes I feel like I don't need
56:48to do it as much as I do it. And I I
56:50just can't stop because it's addictive.
56:53It's a fullon
56:55>> I think I think I think it is a it's
56:56it's a chemical drug for your brain that
57:00just it it uh it zombifi like it
57:03liquefies
57:04your brain and dumbs everything down.
57:07>> Yeah.
57:08>> And it's just it's a it's a numbing uh
57:10cream basically for your mind.
57:12>> I I think the only way for me to get out
57:14is I'm going to have to dedicate time
57:16away from it. Like someone was just
57:18telling me so I'm in Austin every week
57:20now for this whole podcast studio and
57:22someone was telling me that Barton Creek
57:24opens up like between 8 and 10 and you
57:26could just go there and meditate and
57:28journal. I'm not journaling, but like
57:30I'm just going to when I'm in Austin,
57:32I'm going to start going there to be
57:33around other people that are not on
57:35their phone and just doing stuff like
57:36journaling and meditating to where I
57:38will feel so guilty picking up my phone
57:41if I'm just around those people that I
57:43hope that's the way it is that I'm just
57:45going to like be at one with my thoughts
57:47and I don't know stretch or do
57:49something.
57:49>> What works really well for me is just
57:51cutting out on like generalized screen
57:53time as opposed to like intentional
57:55screen time. So, for example, if you do
57:57your deep research between like 10 p.m.
57:59and 2 a.m., if you have that time
58:01blocked out for, okay, I'm going to go
58:03on TikTok. I'm going to do that like
58:06check everything, read all these
58:07comments, that's productive. Anything
58:09outside of that, for example, in passing
58:11instead of like noticing the beautiful
58:13landscape as you're passing through some
58:16place like walking to a coffee shop,
58:18you're on your phone like scrolling on
58:20TikTok. Like, I would say that's like
58:22that part of that human experience that
58:24we're all kind of here for. you're
58:25missing that and you're trading that for
58:27something that's actually pretty
58:28valueless. Like we've said, that I think
58:30is liquefying your brain more is like
58:32removing that experience of like
58:34noticing life than intentional time
58:37between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. that is spent
58:39doing research to collect alpha in the
58:41market. And the way that I intentionally
58:44try to like or the way I try to segment
58:46it and be more intentional at times and
58:48less intentional at others is I just
58:49make sure that like my color filter is
58:52on on my phone to turn everything black
58:54and white when I'm not intentionally
58:57watching videos, doing social media, or
58:59it's like intentional downtime. My
59:01problem is I get somewhere early like to
59:03the doctor's office and I have 10
59:05minutes before my appointment and I'm
59:06scrolling reals instead of like sitting
59:09there and like existing with myself. I
59:11mean that I think that makes a lot of
59:12sense. And also I heard a guy say
59:15recently that if you do the same thing
59:18constantly every day, which is like
59:20scrolling.
59:21>> Yeah. That that that your life moves
59:23quicker.
59:24>> Yes. Your life compresses.
59:25>> Compresses, which scared the hell out of
59:27me. I was like,
59:29>> I think it is true. I I thought about
59:30it. I'm like, dude, that's been
59:32happening to me. I need to change it up.
59:34Like a lot of stuff. I think I'm going
59:36to start going to like a different
59:38coffee shop some mornings and just see
59:40different people.
59:41>> Minor things that make it I saw it was
59:43like take a different way to work in the
59:45morning. Uh take a walk instead of this.
59:48>> See how boring this is?
59:50>> What is that?
59:50>> It's a hot dog.
59:51>> Well, not that. I'm saying like if
59:54you're like watching reals, do you see
59:55how much more boring it is if it's in
59:58black and white?
59:59>> That's really good. You're right.
1:00:01>> Like it's it it's
1:00:03>> see it though. I'm so I'm such a
1:00:04>> No, no, no, no, no. Like, you go on
1:00:06reals and it makes you want to get off
1:00:08of it. It really like you'll only last
1:00:11five minutes doing this until until And
1:00:13it pulls you out because a lot of the
1:00:15times the problem is you open up your
1:00:17phone, you swipe, you don't even look
1:00:19where the Instagram app is. Your your
1:00:21thumb just knows it. And so it's it's
1:00:23like a second nature almost. If you
1:00:25close out of a message tab with someone,
1:00:27you go to your home feed just sitting on
1:00:29your couch and your thumb automatically
1:00:31navigates it its way to the Instagram
1:00:33app and then to the reals and to the
1:00:34messages like but if you do this it
1:00:36makes you understand what you're doing
1:00:38and forces consciousness and so this
1:00:41will slow you down and then you can you
1:00:42know turn off the color filter when you
1:00:44have that time between 10 and 2. Try it
1:00:46out for a couple days see if it works
1:00:48>> or maybe don't turn it off that way like
1:00:50you're intentionally staying on only as
1:00:52long as you really need to be. True.
1:00:55Yeah, it makes it just slightly less
1:00:56enjoyable and more like research based.
1:00:59>> I love it. I'll try it.
1:01:01>> Guys, thank you so much for tuning in.
1:01:03So, basically,
1:01:05>> you know why we're here. We already
1:01:06explained it in the beginning of the
1:01:07episode. Thank you so much.
1:01:08>> Thank you to Chris. This also Skyouse,
1:01:11this is your studio.
1:01:13>> You didn't really plan on hosting
1:01:14podcasts here, but this is located in
1:01:16Dallas. It's also going to be used as an
1:01:17event space. So, if you want to rent out
1:01:20a place to watch the Super Bowl, they
1:01:22have this huge LED screen. If you guys
1:01:23want to check it out, man, my whole
1:01:25group, well, we'll book it for you.
1:01:27>> If you want to hire Jack and I as an
1:01:29appearance fee to show up at your Super
1:01:30Bowl party, we'll be open to that, too.
1:01:33>> I would do that.
1:01:33>> You just have to pay for our stay at the
1:01:35Embassy Suites.
1:01:36>> That's it.
1:01:37>> Thank you guys so much for watching.
1:01:38>> Uh, the one with the king bed, by the
1:01:40way, corner room.
1:01:41>> Well, we both got when we came and it
1:01:42was on our dime, what did we get? Two
1:01:44full beds separated.
1:01:45>> Full beds.
1:01:46>> Non corner, by the way. That's fine.
1:01:48>> The smoking room.
1:01:49>> A little cheaper.
1:01:50>> So, with that said, thank you so much.
1:01:52Till next time. See you.

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