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美國期中選舉後全球秩序將「三分天下」！美伊、俄烏、台海將面臨重大變數？ft.帥化民、謝寒冰【Yahoo TV#風向龍鳳配】 — Transcript

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0:05The Dragon Duo, I'm Chen Er-long.
0:07>> I'm Chen Pang.
0:08>> I’m here to set the trend.
0:09>> I’m here to follow the trend,
0:11>> so you don't lose your way. Alright,
0:12now there are actually several major
0:14world events waiting for the conclusion
0:16of a few elections. Of course, after
0:19the Israeli parliamentary election
0:21concludes tonight, it might not be
0:23settled immediately. Because Israeli
0:27elections are unique, once the voting
0:29is over, small parties abound. So,
0:32through various alliances, which party
0:34will ultimately lead, and who will be
0:36the final Prime Minister? As things
0:40stand, we are watching to see if
0:42Netanyahu can continue to be re-elected
0:44. Additionally, the November 3rd
0:47midterms, US time, will actually have a
0:49significant impact on the world as well
0:52. Well, let’s start with the US
0:56midterms, as everyone is concerned
0:57about the House and Senate—whether
0:59the Democrats will lead or the
1:01Republicans can maintain their lead.
1:06But no one has really considered that
1:07after the November 3rd election
1:09concludes, Trump might just be getting
1:11ready to flex his muscles on the
1:12international stage. At that point,
1:20including the China-US-Russia summit,
1:22the conflict between the US and Iran,
1:24the Russia-Ukraine war, and also the
1:26situation in the Taiwan Strait, will
1:28all of these become the most focused
1:30topics after the US election? We have
1:38invited two guests today; the first is
1:40General Shuai Hua-ming.
1:43>> Hello, everyone.
1:44>> Alright, moving on, the second guest is
1:46Han Bing, who is joining our show for
1:48the first time. Hello, Han.
1:50>> Hello, host, and hello everyone. Right,
1:52let’s start with the US election.
1:55Will the US Congress change? So, this
1:59situation might affect several of
2:01Trump’s key foreign policies moving
2:03forward. Of course, these foreign
2:07policies involve the US House of
2:09Representatives. If the Democrats win
2:13the majority, they could block Trump on
2:15budget issues, but most of these
2:17diplomatic powers are still in Trump's
2:19hands. So, how should we view the
2:23impact of this congressional shift on
2:25Trump’s foreign policy? It is now
2:29certain that Trump will likely lose
2:31control of the House, meaning he will
2:32lose control of the budget. However,
2:36regarding the Senate, there is now over
2:39a 60%chance he will lose control, yet
2:41there is still about a 30%to 40%chance
2:44he can hold onto it. How will this part
2:47affect his "three-way split" of power
2:49later on? Indeed, we are observing
2:51several critical developments involving
2:54the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine, foremost
2:56being the ongoing war. Now, a
2:58tripartite discussion between the U.S.,
3:00Russia, and Ukraine has been confirmed.
3:02Since both Russia and Ukraine have
3:04confirmed, the timing will likely be in
3:06early November, immediately following
3:08the U.S. congressional elections. At
3:13the same time, we see Zelenskyy
3:15starting to set conditions, though I am
3:17uncertain whether he can truly
3:19negotiate, as he says, "If I cannot
3:21recover my current territory in the
3:23short term, I would accept a temporary
3:25freeze." But then he follows up by
3:29saying, "I absolutely cannot give up my
3:31land." This inconsistency raises the
3:34question of how much he can secure for
3:36Ukraine's interests, which remains a
3:38point to watch in this war.
3:42Additionally, regarding the situation
3:44between the U.S. and Iran, we hear that
3:46the U.S. military has prepared plans
3:48for a large-scale strike on Iran, and
3:50Trump may order it after the midterms.
3:56Recently, reports from sources like CNN
3:58and the New York Times suggest that
4:00once the midterms are over, Trump will
4:02take decisive action against Iran.
4:08However, this potential action also
4:10depends on observing the post-election
4:12situation in Israel to determine what
4:14the reality on the ground will be.
4:21Meanwhile, Tehran—or Iran—has taken
4:23the lead by inviting Pakistan, Turkey,
4:26and Saudi Arabia—three nations
4:28involved in the Abraham Accords—to
4:30Tehran for discussions. What are they
4:36discussing? Theoretically, it likely
4:38isn't about U.S.-Iran relations, but
4:40perhaps they are discussing Saudi
4:42Arabia and the Houthi organization in
4:45Yemen? So, what is the result?
4:47According to Ali Shamkhani, Secretary
4:49of Iran's Supreme National Security
4:51Council, they reached a consensus that
4:53regional security should be the
4:55responsibility of the nations in this
4:57region. What does this signify?
5:00Furthermore, the probability of a
5:02China-U.S. -Russia summit being held in
5:07Shenzhen is increasing, as Russia has
5:09signaled that mainland China has also
5:11begun to adopt a more proactive stance.
5:17Just at this moment, we see Trump
5:19lashing out at Taiwan again, claiming
5:21that Taiwan stole his chip industry.
5:25How should we view this? Will this
5:29election change Trump's diplomatic
5:31agenda, or will his agenda officially
5:33commence after the election concludes?
5:37>> Essentially, this election dictates his
5:39control over the budget. And control
5:41over the budget determines whether his
5:43military expansion plans face
5:45challenges.
5:45>> Hmm.
5:46>> Trump won't be much constrained when it
5:48comes to diplomatic power. Because the
5:50power of the U.S. President is quite
5:52vast, and he has never been one to
5:54admit defeat; he even stirred up
5:56trouble during the last congressional
5:58election. You see, he's already laying
6:00the groundwork now, claiming that two
6:02people with the same name on a ballot
6:04could cause issues.
6:05>> Oh, he is Alaska-ing.
6:07>> Yes, he's just laying the groundwork.
6:10Second, regarding his personality, I
6:12don't think he will follow the
6:13tradition of U.S. Presidents respecting
6:16the opinions of the two houses of
6:18Congress, so I suspect he might take
6:20shortcuts on tariffs, and that won't
6:22stop. The point isn't here, so what is
6:25the point? What does the United States
6:27want? And what does China want? What
6:30does Russia want?
6:35>> This tripartite meeting is the main
6:37event; as for Israel's elections, as
6:39long as it's not Netanyahu, no new
6:40leader would advocate for a joint
6:42strike with the U.S. that is like an
6:44epoch-making attack. Because military
6:50personnel are always like this:
6:51regardless of whether there are orders
6:53to fight or not, my operational plans
6:55must be ready.
6:57>> Mm.
7:00>> Therefore, the U.S. Department of
7:02Defense definitely has plans for an
7:03attack on Iran, but the inherent
7:05limitation is that the Army cannot
7:07intervene, so it relies on the Navy and
7:09Air Force, whose strength hasn't
7:10increased significantly, and their
7:12ammunition reserves aren't enough to
7:14support a so-called epoch-making mass
7:15bombardment. It's very likely that
7:20after putting on a show, Trump will
7:21declare victory and withdraw; whether
7:23this withdrawal happens depends on the
7:25tripartite meeting. Because everyone
7:28enters the tripartite meeting with
7:30different themes in mind. The U.S. says
7:32, "In this tripartite meeting, the
7:34first item is to discuss nuclear arms
7:36limitation negotiations." This is
7:38impossible; only you and Russia would
7:40sign it, China definitely won't sign it
7:42with you. You and Russia have five or
7:45six thousand nuclear warheads, while
7:47China has fewer than 1,000; if you
7:49limit me, how can I maintain a nuclear
7:51balance in the future? So, this is the
7:55U.S.'s entry ticket that is announced
7:57publicly, but the secret meetings
7:59internally likely involve much more
8:01than that; Russia wants to end the
8:03Russia-Ukraine war immediately, lift
8:04all sanctions, and allow Russian oil to
8:06sell globally so they can recover their
8:08economy. Moreover, there is still room
8:13for negotiation with the U.S. regarding
8:15the ceasefire conditions. The U.S.
8:17certainly hopes for a ceasefire in the
8:19Russia-Ukraine war now. If it doesn't
8:23stop, their energy crisis will continue
8:25, so this is the moment for the U.S.
8:27and Russia to decide the future status
8:29of Zelenskyy and Ukraine; Ukraine
8:30doesn't really have any bargaining
8:32conditions. Realistically, you can't
8:37force Russia to retreat from the
8:39territories it occupies.
8:41>> Mm.
8:42>> As for the 20%that isn't occupied, it's
8:45up to Ukraine whether it wants to let
8:47it go. Perhaps Russia will concede, not
8:49by declaring it Russian territory.
8:53Letting Donetsk become an independent
8:55state, these are all matters for
8:56negotiation. Mainland China has only
8:59one issue, which is the Taiwan issue.
9:03So, you see, why did Trump talk about
9:05Taiwan stealing its chips before
9:07leaving?
9:10>> Why at that time?
9:12>> Because if you want Trump to say "I
9:14abandon Taiwan" or "I oppose Taiwan
9:16independence" before the election, he
9:19can't say it. This would affect the
9:22Republican and Democratic elections, so
9:24he was vague; privately he might say he
9:26doesn't support it, but publicly he
9:28never said it. Now the election is over
9:32and the dust has settled, the "no-worse
9:34" scenario is just like this. Now that
9:37Mainland China demands you state you
9:38don't support Taiwan independence, he
9:40might loosen his stance. Otherwise, for
9:42China, it's like: you come to my place
9:45for a meeting, what do I get out of it?
9:49The third theme for China is economic
9:50and trade, as I want global trade; so
9:52the basic agendas of the three
9:54countries meeting are quite different.
9:58That is to reach a compromise within
10:00this meeting. Where to concede, where
10:02to push—some things are done without
10:04being said, some are said without being
10:06done; this is the result of a
10:07tripartite meeting. But the three
10:10countries partitioning the world's
10:12spheres of influence must already have
10:14a tacit understanding: you don't touch
10:16my area, and I don't touch yours. These
10:20three will surely reach a framework
10:22agreement privately, whether it's
10:23verbal or something else. As for the
10:29issues involving Iran, Saudi Arabia,
10:31and the Houthis, Turkey and Pakistan
10:33have so far remained at the level of
10:35protecting Saudi security. They haven't
10:40sent troops to engage the Houthis, and
10:42the Saudi air force and the Yemeni
10:44government forces have fought for a
10:45long time without a result. Now, it's
10:49rather the movements of the Houthis and
10:51Iran that matter. Iran's stance is: if
10:54you continue to act like that. My next
10:58step will be all AI equipment in Gulf
11:00countries. Even cutting fiber optics;
11:06so this interacts with the U.S. strike,
11:08you will pay the price.
11:11>> Are the Gulf countries willing to
11:13accept this? You, the U.S., can do it.
11:15>> But if you act this way, Gulf countries
11:17...
11:17>> It is the Gulf countries that suffer
11:19the losses. My AI is hit, oil pipelines
11:22and refining equipment, my property
11:24losses are immeasurable; so the U.S.
11:26must consider the needs of the Gulf
11:28states before deciding whether to
11:29launch a major attack on Iran. Because
11:35Iran has also shown its hand: if you
11:37launch a strike, I will bomb all the
11:39Gulf countries, so the U.S. military
11:41bases in the Gulf are now vulnerable.
11:46Countries like Saudi Arabia, Bahrain,
11:48and Qatar have completely lost
11:50confidence in your protection, so the
11:52U.S. must consider diplomatically
11:54whether bombing Iran means losing
11:55Middle Eastern trust and reliance
11:57forever. This is a question the U.S.
12:01has to weigh.
12:03>> So, General, do you think that despite
12:05all the reports suggesting the U.S.
12:07military is preparing for a
12:08larger-scale attack on Iran, it will
12:11likely turn out to be all thunder and
12:13no rain?
12:14>> Of course, just think about it. If you
12:16want to take action against Iran to
12:18solve the problem, if you don't send in
12:19the Army, all you're doing is bombing;
12:21their military and nuclear facilities
12:23are all underground.
12:24>> And right now, there’s no sign that
12:26the U.S. can mobilize its ground forces
12:27.
12:27>> No, because for the U.S. Army to
12:29mobilize—I participated in many
12:30studies back then. Preparing to fight
12:32Iraq took six months.
12:34>> Uh-huh.
12:35>> Because the U.S. regular military
12:37cannot tolerate heavy casualties, and
12:39to invade a land-based country, they
12:41prepared 580,000 troops for Iraq. How
12:45many would you need to mobilize to
12:46fight Iran today? Currently, the total
12:49U.S. garrison across all bases in the
12:51Gulf is less than 50,000. I ask you,
12:54where are the backup troops?
12:56>> Because the U.S. military is very
12:58cautious about overseas operations, its
13:01standing army isn't large, and its
13:03garrisons are even smaller. They must
13:06mobilize the National Guard and all
13:08Reserve components, then send them to
13:11Fort Irwin for live-fire exercises, as
13:13they don't usually have many
13:14opportunities.
13:15>> Joint live-fire exercises for all three
13:17branches.
13:18>> It's essentially pre-war training.
13:20>> They must train before heading out.
13:21When you go to a Middle Eastern country
13:23, you have to be taught everything—
13:25whether to eat with your right hand or
13:27left hand, how to use the restroom,
13:29even how many liters of water to drink
13:30a day is strictly regulated.
13:32>> Because it involves the climate.
13:34>> Yes, that’s called theater life and
13:36climate adjustment, which takes a month
13:38. So that adds up to five months, plus
13:40sea transport of troops takes at least
13:42another month.
13:43>> So, if you look at this issue, the
13:45current rhetoric simply cannot be
13:47backed up by their capabilities. So,
13:49regarding the air and naval strikes,
13:51you already carried out an "epic"
13:53attack last time; how much ammunition
13:55do you have left? Of course, the
13:57Department of Defense and every
13:59official has to say, "I can support
14:00Trump in launching a major war." We
14:02should pragmatically calculate how much
14:04ammunition you have and how much your
14:06navy and air force have remaining.
14:07>> How many troops do you really have left
14:09at your Gulf bases? Aside from your
14:13trump cards like the B-2 and B-1
14:14long-range strategic bombers, you
14:16really don't have much else, and not
14:18much chance of success. So, what the
14:24President says and what the Department
14:26of Defense says may appear consistent
14:28on the surface, but having a wish
14:29doesn't mean you can achieve it. Your
14:33expectations do not equate to your
14:34capabilities. Alright, so Hanbing, we
14:37see that regarding these three areas,
14:39everyone is actually just waiting for
14:41the U.S. congressional elections to
14:43conclude. Once the results are clear,
14:45Trump will likely have a better sense
14:47of what he can accomplish regarding
14:49both domestic and international issues.
14:52He is waiting, but in this process of
14:54waiting, a China-U.S. -Russia summit
14:58now seems almost certain, with a
15:00probability of over 80%, because the
15:02message recently released by Russia is
15:04that mainland China has become more
15:07proactive. So Russia is the most
15:10proactive, the U.S. is cooperating, and
15:12if mainland China is now willing as
15:14well, then it looks like there is a
15:16very high chance. However, there are
15:18three main issues: the Russia-Ukraine
15:19war comes first, with the U.S., Russia,
15:21and Ukraine talking first, because
15:22Ukraine said if you want to talk, then
15:24I might as well talk with you all first
15:26. As for the Iran issue, General Shu
15:28analyzed it the most clearly just now.
15:30The U.S. talks tough on the surface,
15:32but if you take stock of the military
15:34situation, you realize they are
15:36completely powerless to act. Therefore,
15:38regarding Iran, in the aftermath, one
15:40can only let it slowly wind down.
15:42Although we see tension recently, Iran
15:44now looks calm and composed. Beyond
15:47verbal threats, they can even mediate
15:49between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis,
15:52which shows that Iran currently has an
15:54air of confidence. Ironically, the
15:56quietest place is the Taiwan Strait. So
15:58, how do you evaluate the possible
16:00foreign strategies and tactics Trump
16:02might adopt after this U.S. midterm
16:05election? In fact, it currently looks
16:07like the world is gradually heading
16:09toward a point where the U.S., China,
16:11and Russia are starting to reconstruct
16:13a new international order and landscape
16:15. There was even news today suggesting
16:17that the U.S., Russia, and mainland
16:19China are preparing to jointly nominate
16:21Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán for UN
16:24Secretary-General. This is very
16:25outrageous; in the past, many people
16:28would have found it unthinkable. Right,
16:31and for the UN Secretary-General
16:32position, they have already gone
16:34through many rounds of mock voting
16:36internally.
16:37>> Yes, yes, yes. So the U.S. side now
16:40believes that if Orbán is put forward
16:42and China and Russia also support him,
16:44he could get at least 8 to 10 votes.
16:46With a total of only 15 Security
16:48Council members, that would basically
16:50be enough to pass. Who could have
16:52imagined in the past that they would
16:54actually join forces to push a person
16:56like Orbán forward? Bennett is someone
16:58we all know; to a certain extent, he's
17:00a bit like Trump, and he’s also
17:02fiercely independent. Yes, exactly, so
17:04you’d find it incredible that the
17:06U.S. actually agreed to such a thing.
17:08So, has Trump already held in-depth
17:10consultations with Putin and Xi Jinping
17:13, deciding that the future will be
17:15determined by our three countries,
17:17casting aside past conventions and
17:19organizations to just get things done?
17:22If that’s the case, many
17:23considerations of interest and the
17:25international landscape would likely be
17:27quite different. You can see that Trump
17:29still supports Netanyahu, hoping he can
17:31continue and get re-elected, but
17:33Netanyahu’s re-election is a tough
17:35fight. Why? Current estimates generally
17:37put his chance of re-election at 26%to
17:4029%.
17:40>> That’s actually not a very high
17:42probability.
17:43>> However, the opposition coalition also
17:46lacks the clear path to an outright
17:48victory, so the final outcome might
17:50depend on subsequent alliances formed
17:52after the election. We aren’t certain
17:55about this right now, but it’s
17:57generally considered unlikely. With
17:59Trump stepping in now, I honestly
18:01wonder if he realizes whether his
18:03endorsement is an antidote or a poison
18:05for Netanyahu. This is actually hard to
18:07say. Why? Because recently, Trump has
18:09been touring the U.S. to campaign. But
18:11his own approval rating is only just
18:13over 30%. Under these circumstances,
18:15whether his involvement is good or bad
18:17is really hard to say. I feel the whole
18:21situation is very strange, and I
18:23personally think Trump knows deep down
18:25that the midterms might not go as he
18:27expects, so he’s likely preparing—
18:29for instance, by claiming he might
18:31launch a new round of bombing against
18:33Iran after the midterms. But as General
18:37Shui just analyzed, regardless of your
18:39troop numbers there or your ammunition
18:41reserves, and to put it bluntly,
18:43you’ve already withdrawn your B-1
18:45bombers back to the U.S. That's right.
18:47>> So, how much capacity do you really
18:49have to bomb Iran? It’s likely that
18:51even if he does, it will just be a
18:53superficial, symbolic gesture—a way
18:55to say, "I bombed them, I didn't just
18:57sit by." Instead, Iran has become more
18:59aggressive lately; they announced a
19:01while ago, "Don't mess around, or I'll
19:04cut your undersea cables directly."
19:06Yeah, and now the US talks about
19:07attacking Iran, and Iran immediately
19:09says that seven Middle Eastern
19:11countries will become its targets.
19:12>> Mm-hmm.
19:13>> So it turns out that Iran actually
19:15looks stronger than the US, and in this
19:17situation, I personally think for Trump
19:20, he might need Putin to help him deal
19:22with the Iran problem. And regarding
19:25Ukraine, does it now mean that Putin
19:27would really want an immediate
19:28ceasefire? I’m afraid that’s not
19:31necessarily the case. Why? Zelenskyy
19:33might want a quick ceasefire because he
19:34knows Europe is currently dealing with
19:36its own backyard fires, and the US
19:37doesn't seem willing to help him. He
19:39might hope that instead of letting this
19:41drag on, it would be better to
19:43negotiate a result now, but for Putin,
19:44if you are only willing to freeze the
19:46conflict, that’s not necessarily what
19:48I want.
19:49>> He thinks it’s not enough.
19:50>> Right, he might want more. So I don’t
19:52think Putin is necessarily willing to
19:54stop right now. As for mainland China,
19:56in principle, it doesn't intervene in
19:58the Middle East or in Russia-Ukraine.
19:59But for them, they also hope to gain
20:01maximum benefits for China during this
20:03process, at least by elevating their
20:05international status further. So I
20:06think the three-party meeting in
20:08Shenzhen, although the Chinese side
20:10hasn't confirmed it yet, it’s
20:12probably almost certain. It should be.
20:14For China, this is also an opportunity,
20:16and since it’s on their home turf,
20:18they can play it better. So I
20:20personally believe China would want to
20:22take this opportunity to establish a
20:24mechanism with Russia and the US to
20:26potentially dominate the future
20:27direction of the world. If that happens
20:31, I would be very worried. Why? Because
20:33when we listen to what Trump says, he
20:35claims that if it weren’t for past
20:37presidents being stupid, if the US had
20:39a smart president, there would be no
20:41problems between mainland China and
20:43Taiwan at all. What does that mean?
20:45Actually, I specifically noted it after
20:47he called Taiwan a chip thief. So what
20:49does that mean? It means that if the US
20:51hadn't let Taiwan produce chips in the
20:53first place. Then he could discard
20:55Taiwan at any time, and that is a
20:56terrifying thought. Of course, I
20:58don’t know if that’s what he meant,
21:00but the fact that he said it makes me
21:02very worried. So how he thinks is one
21:05thing, but through his thoughts and the
21:07words he says, he has already given us
21:09many reasons to worry about how he
21:11views the cross-strait situation. It
21:13seems that regarding the status quo of
21:15the cross-strait issue, he is actually
21:17more inclined toward Beijing. It really
21:19looks like he has been well-educated by
21:21Xi Jinping, doesn't it?
21:22>> Did you just say that? What he said
21:25before was to deal with the issues of
21:26the Republicans and Democrats.
21:29>> Now he is saying that Taiwan stole my
21:31chips. And the next sentence, which he
21:33hasn't said yet, is that I’ve already
21:35moved Taiwan’s chips back to the U.S.
21:37, TSMC is back, and they are continuing
21:39to return. So what value is left for
21:41Taiwan? Nothingness, there’s nothing
21:43left.
21:44>> If you’re talking about using them to
21:47exhaust mainland China, Taiwan's
21:48military forces are just not up to the
21:50task. He has already shifted his focus
21:53to Japan; as for Taiwan, he's now
21:55charging you for arms sales and TSMC
21:57continues to relocate. Once that’s
22:01finished, you’ll have no significance
22:03to the U.S., so he is slowly dissolving
22:05the momentum of Republican and
22:07Democratic support for Taiwan. So many
22:11things were said but not done, and now
22:14things are said but he won’t act, or
22:16his next move...arms sales are just a
22:18fishing float. So, we see these three
22:23aspects, including Ukraine, which I
22:25think is the most transparent. As for
22:29the U.S. and Iran, it’s more of an
22:31ongoing public matter that everyone is
22:33aware of, with a lot of rhetoric, but
22:35the substantive actions don't
22:36necessarily align with the rhetoric.
22:40However, what’s actually hidden
22:41beneath the surface is Taiwan, because
22:43he can't say it before the election,
22:45but that doesn't mean Trump won't do it
22:47after the election. So, Xianglin, how
22:50do you see this election? What kind of
22:53impact will it have on Trump's
22:55diplomatic strategy? Actually, what I
22:58just mentioned about China, the U.S.,
23:00and Russia currently brewing a plan to
23:02nominate the former Hungarian prime
23:04minister for UN Secretary-General is
23:06quite alarming. I don't think the
23:11probability is high, because currently,
23:13for those who have been nominated, I
23:15recall there have already been five or
23:17six rounds of voting, and according to
23:19regional consensus, it should be Latin
23:21America's turn this time. So, it’s
23:26hard to imagine it being the Hungarian
23:28candidate. But with Trump, in this
23:30world, never say never. Feng-hsin
23:33mentioned a key point: the current UN
23:36Secretary-General, Guterres, is of
23:38Portuguese descent.
23:40>> Hmm.
23:41>> That is an unwritten rule of the UN
23:43that everyone follows—the rotation
23:45among regions. You can see that all the
23:49contenders now are almost entirely from
23:51Latin America. For this UN
23:54Secretary-General selection, besides
23:56focusing on Latin America...And
23:58secondly, it must be a woman. So, the
24:02direction of electing a Latin American
24:04woman is more or less set. So, whenever
24:07there’s a race for UN
24:09Secretary-General, the same issue
24:11always comes up. These five permanent
24:13members each have their own interests,
24:15and they just dig in their heels until
24:17the very end, when they finally try to
24:19coordinate. But in the end, there will
24:21always be someone, though it definitely
24:23won’t be the Australian one. No,
24:25because the voting process there is
24:26interesting. There are 15 council
24:29members: the five permanent members
24:31plus nine non-permanent members, but
24:34the permanent members have veto power.
24:36>> Yeah, exactly. That’s why I’m
24:38saying it ultimately comes down to
24:40those permanent members. Either you
24:42cast an abstention, or you coordinate
24:44to come up with an acceptable candidate
24:46. But, as I’ve said before, I don’t
24:49analyze Trump because Trump is a talk
24:51show host. He basically has to ensure
24:55there’s a punchline every minute to
24:57keep the audience entertained. But once
25:00the fun is over, you know, what a talk
25:02show host says really isn't that
25:04important. Only in Taiwan do people
25:06take it so seriously; elsewhere, it’s
25:09mostly not the point. Trump maintains
25:12that tone, but we must not
25:13underestimate the shift in America’s
25:15political atmosphere. The political
25:18climate has changed significantly. In
25:21the past, for every leader, regardless
25:23of who they were, the midterm election
25:25was almost certainly going to be a loss
25:28. As for leaders who didn't lose the
25:30midterms, Clinton’s second term is
25:32about the only one. The others,
25:34basically, they either lost big or they
25:36lost small.
25:39>> Right, so after losing the majority in
25:41the Senate or House, there wasn't a
25:43huge shock because, in the past, you
25:45didn’t see such aggressive American
25:47leaders. Moreover, the two chambers
25:52weren't as sharply polarized in the
25:54past, and the two parties weren't so
25:56divided that even some bipartisan bills
25:58couldn't pass. That didn't happen
26:02before, but in the Trump era, it does.
26:04>> Mm. Trump’s own personality has
26:08completely polarized American two-party
26:10politics, making it difficult for the
26:12bipartisan establishment to function.
26:16In the past, the establishment could be
26:18effective because it had the ability to
26:20secure votes across party lines within
26:22the two-party system. That’s why he
26:26calls it the "deep state"—because it
26:28was able to operate across party lines
26:30in Congress. But with Trump's
26:34personality, it will become
26:35increasingly difficult for him to
26:37operate across party lines in Congress.
26:41We cannot underestimate that after this
26:43election, Trump's personality will lead
26:45to two things; the first is a split
26:47within the Republican Party. Because
26:52some of the candidates he strongly
26:53pushed and favored are currently not
26:55polling well. Right.
26:58>> Including places like Ohio or Texas. In
27:02Ohio, Ramaswamy, who we mentioned
27:04before, competed against Trump for the
27:06presidential nomination and is an
27:08important Indian-American donor for the
27:11GOP. He’s young and from the tech
27:14industry, but he is currently trailing
27:16far behind; it doesn’t look like he
27:18has much of a chance to win. It’s the
27:21same in Texas, because these are people
27:23Trump handpicked, so it will lead to a
27:25split in the Republican Party. After
27:27the election, I believe there will be a
27:29strong backlash within the Republican
27:31Party. If the election results match
27:34the polls, once it's over, the first
27:36thing is a backlash; a split within the
27:38Republican Party is bound to happen.
27:41The second thing is not to
27:42underestimate the power of the Senate
27:44and the House. In the past, because
27:47partisan conflict wasn't as intense as
27:49a "fight to the death," the fundamental
27:52powers between the Senate and the House
27:54didn't matter as much, but in the
27:56current climate, they exert huge
27:58influence. We look at the U.S. House of
28:04Representatives; because it represents
28:06the people and is based on population,
28:08I think everyone should pay attention
28:10to the House, as it has two most
28:12important powers. One is that the power
28:17to initiate all fiscal and tax increase
28:19bills belongs solely to the House of
28:21Representatives.
28:25>> So, if the president says "I want to
28:27raise taxes" or "I want to increase
28:29spending," it doesn't start from the
28:31White House; they must utilize their
28:33majority in Congress. Therefore, when
28:37they lose the House, they essentially
28:39lose the power over taxation, including
28:41the ability to raise or cut taxes.
28:44>> Right.
28:45>> Does this cause significant damage to
28:47his term? Actually, for someone like
28:49Trump, when your power to initiate
28:51fiscal and tax policy is stripped away,
28:53the damage is indeed very significant.
28:55The second point, actually, is about
28:57impeachment, which is a power exclusive
28:59to the House of Representatives. They
29:01are responsible for bringing charges.
29:05>> Once they investigate and move forward
29:07with a vote, if the House passes it,
29:09they can impeach political figures and
29:11high-level federal officials; once the
29:13House approves, it counts as an
29:15indictment. Mhm.
29:19>> Even though it’s sent to the Senate
29:21after indictment and likely won't pass
29:23—since it requires a two-thirds
29:24majority—the constant launching of
29:26these proceedings can cause you huge
29:28trouble. The third point is their power
29:31to hold hearings and investigations;
29:32when they hold both, won't that power
29:34of investigation be a bit much for
29:36Trump? Because one characteristic of
29:38Trump is that his family members are
29:40all deeply entangled in his political
29:42affairs. Whether it's his son or his
29:45son-in-law, I don't think they can
29:47escape it. Unless you hide abroad, as
29:53long as you remain in the U.S., you'll
29:55likely be subjected to constant
29:57hearings and subpoenas from both
29:59chambers; you saw the TikTok CEO from
30:02Singapore, you saw Shou Zi Chew.
30:07>> You saw how intense the pressure was
30:09when he was at that hearing.
30:11Fortunately, Shou Zi Chew is quite
30:13handsome.
30:17>> Think about it, if you swapped him out
30:19for someone like Ivanka, I believe that
30:21if she sat in that hearing chair,
30:22she’d never be able to get back up.
30:28>> Oh, you don't think she could handle it
30:30?
30:30>> I think in the political arena, there's
30:32no such thing as being able to handle
30:34it. I’d say politics is just a game
30:38of framing people. If you're caught
30:42with evidence, you're a goner; even if
30:44there’s no evidence, the laws—U.S.
30:47laws are so complex that even lawyers
30:49can't keep track of them all. If I
30:51can't use this law, I’ll dig up one
30:53from 30 or 50 years ago, even from the
30:56last century; they don't expire, and I
30:58can just pull them out to use. You’ll
31:00never know—there are just too many of
31:02them in the U.S., it's truly terrifying
31:04.
31:04>> Why do American lawyers have such deep
31:07pockets? Why are they so active? It’s
31:09because no one can figure out the laws.
31:11If I really want to target you
31:12politically today, I have so many
31:14things at my disposal to make your life
31:15miserable—if not kill you, then at
31:17least leave you half-dead. So, after
31:19this election, if the current polling
31:21results hold, Trump will face immense
31:23pressure, and this pressure will build
31:25because everyone is already preparing
31:27for 2028, and the U.S. is no exception.
31:29Therefore, the level of confrontation
31:31will only intensify, not diminish. So,
31:34after the election, regarding Trump—
31:35we’ve become accustomed to the idea
31:37that if Trump says something, he’ll
31:39actually go through with it. Today, the
31:41trade war he wants to launch—it
31:42counts if he says it, because Congress
31:44is his, but if you look at these tariff
31:46wars, once he loses control of Congress
31:48, he loses the power to initiate them.
31:50Yeah.
31:51>> Once he acts, once Congress steps in,
31:53Congress has two types of power. One is
31:55the power to actively obstruct you, and
31:57the other is the power to passively
31:59refuse to cooperate with you. Beyond
32:01just not cooperating, if you want
32:03something passed, then let’s
32:05negotiate the terms.
32:06>> You have to give me something in return
32:08, otherwise, you won’t be able to get
32:10done what you want to do. So, this kind
32:12of leverage, which I can fully use
32:14against you in today’s U.S. political
32:16climate, I think is very unfavorable
32:18for Trump. Will this affect his attempt
32:21to structure a new world order?
32:26>> He certainly wants to, because he is a
32:28capable person, but the meeting between
32:30the leaders of China and the U.S. today
32:32—I think the first thing he needs to
32:34prove is that the three of us sitting
32:35down can actually resolve many of the
32:37world's difficult problems. Even that
32:43alone is not easy; we’ve made this
32:45out to be too simple, so I don't really
32:47have high expectations. I only know
32:51that around November this year, there
32:52is a high probability that these three
32:54will meet, and there will be a moment
32:56where the three are in the same frame
32:57or sitting together to discuss matters.
33:02As for the leaders of all other
33:03countries, you can just step aside, or
33:05stand in the back like human screens;
33:07basically, it’s like three big bosses
33:09sitting down to eat, while the others
33:11serve as waiters. This scene will
33:15appear, but I do not expect that this
33:17meeting can truly prove that today,
33:19after I have paralyzed the UN system,
33:21paralyzed the WTO, paralyzed many of
33:23these climate change conferences, and
33:25paralyzed many of these international
33:27organizations, I can then show the
33:29world that the three of us sitting down
33:31is enough to re-establish order. The
33:35differences between these three
33:37countries are vast, and I currently
33:38cannot see any geopolitical or global
33:40governance issues where all three
33:42countries share a consensus.
33:45>> They can sit down to provide the world
33:47with an explanation, but in terms of
33:49the situation, the flavor of a world
33:51divided into three—like the Three
33:53Kingdoms era of Wei, Shu, and Wu—will
33:55be visible this time. So you will see
33:58that the mere image of them sitting
34:00together to discuss the international
34:01situation has already had an impact on
34:03the world, but if you ask whether
34:05substantive issues, for instance, the
34:07Russia-Ukraine war, will be resolved at
34:08this meeting? Or will the US-Iran
34:11situation be resolved at this meeting?
34:13Or even the Taiwan Strait issue—do
34:14you think it will be resolved at this
34:16meeting? Probably not, but the
34:17international landscape of a world
34:19divided in three will have already
34:21taken shape. We, in Taiwan, largely
34:26lack an understanding of war; you know,
34:28for a party involved in a war,
34:30negotiation is a very cruel thing.
34:35Negotiation is a one-way street with no
34:37turning back. It’s not like if I sit
34:39at the negotiating table today, if
34:40Ukraine sits at the table and things
34:42don't go well, we can just go back to
34:44fighting; that's not how it works. I
34:46think once you sit at the negotiating
34:48table, your domestic will to resist
34:50collapses.
34:51>> Yes. Once you step up, your will to
34:53resist is gone. In fact, if I present
34:56highly oppressive terms today that
34:58Zelenskyy and Ukraine cannot accept,
34:59you no longer have the capability to
35:01return to the battlefield, and you
35:03cannot expect the countries that
35:05supported and backed you to say, "It
35:06didn't work out, it's okay, come back
35:08and we'll keep fighting." There is no
35:11such possibility. Throughout history,
35:14you’ve never seen a party in a
35:15position of weakness on the battlefield
35:17have any choice but to fight to the end
35:19to survive. You think, no matter the
35:23cost, I’ll fight you, and I’ll
35:25gamble that surrounding nations will
35:26share the burden with me. But if those
35:30other countries can no longer hold on,
35:32Ukraine will have no choice but to head
35:34to the negotiating table. For a nation
35:37currently at war, heading to the
35:39negotiating table is an admission of
35:40defeat. Once defeated, you are at the
35:43mercy of others, and there is no
35:45returning to the battlefield. Do you
35:48think that for the U.S.-Russia-Ukraine
35:50talks in early November, the mere act
35:52of establishing negotiations means the
35:54war in Ukraine will likely have to end?
35:57Yes, once talks start, it’s basically
35:59over. My view on Zelensky’s current
36:02attitude is that the situation dictates
36:04the outcome. Especially with the EU in
36:08a state of collapse, you can no longer
36:10expect the domestic politics of Germany
36:12, France, or the UK to be like they
36:14were a few years ago—where if you
36:16asked for 50 billion or 100 billion,
36:18they’d just hand it over. It’s
36:21impossible. This means things will only
36:24get harder for you from here.
36:28Russia’s advantage, however, is that
36:29they’ve already proven they’ve
36:31survived your financial hunt and your
36:33energy blockades; now, you have to come
36:35crawling back to them. Think about it:
36:39besides finance and energy, what else
36:41is there left to restrict Russia with?
36:43So, their war preparations are
36:45currently in a position of
36:46unprecedented advantage. As for drones,
36:48you bomb me, I bomb you—as we’ve
36:51discussed before, drones only have a
36:53tactical, harassing effect. They don't
36:55fundamentally change the front lines of
36:57the battlefield. They have no impact on
36:59the shifting of the lines, and thus,
37:01they have no real significance to the
37:03war.
37:04>> Right, so the outcome of the
37:06Russia-Ukraine war is likely near.
37:09However, what Ukraine wanted to prove
37:11—that if they won, they could join
37:13NATO—is, of course, impossible.
37:16>> The idea that after winning they could
37:18recover Crimea and the Donbas—the
37:20land lost back in 2014—is also
37:21impossible now; in fact, they’ve lost
37:24even more. What Russia set out to prove
37:26is that despite the combined
37:27containment by the US and Europe, their
37:29finance didn't collapse.
37:30>> Their economy didn't collapse, and the
37:33nation itself didn't collapse.
37:35>> Looking at it now, of course there are
37:37losses, but their thresholds for
37:39survival are different. Alright,
37:42let’s move on to the Korean Peninsula
37:44. This development is truly quite
37:47surprising, which also means that
37:49nobody really knows what North Korea is
37:51thinking right now. In the days before
37:55Kim Jong-un appeared, there were rumors
37:57circulating internationally and on
37:59social media platforms that he had
38:01already died. I went back to check, and
38:05it was actually overseas dissidents
38:07from mainland China who first spread
38:09this news—or rather, it wasn’t even
38:12news. I read that report, and I have to
38:16say, it contained absolutely no
38:18evidence. They didn’t even have any
38:21circumstantial evidence; they just
38:23claimed, "I think he must be dead," and
38:25went on from there. There was zero
38:29evidence, which is why major media
38:31outlets and even international
38:33intelligence agencies all came out to
38:35say there was no truth to it. Yet, it
38:38continued to spread and circulate on
38:40these platforms. And then, we suddenly
38:46saw that over the weekend, Kim Jong-un
38:48crossed the New Yalu River Bridge and
38:50arrived in Dandong, China. At the same
38:58time, we saw Wang Huning and Wang Yi
39:00deliberately travel to Dandong to meet
39:02with him. This move by Kim was very
39:07sudden; what message is he trying to
39:09convey? Previously, there were constant
39:12rumors about a Trump-Kim summit,
39:14largely due to Trump’s repeated
39:16remarks. However, Trump seems less
39:20enthusiastic about it lately, so U.S.
39:22think tanks have started to assess the
39:25situation and believe the chance of
39:26them meeting at the APEC summit later
39:29this year has dropped to only about 10%
39:31. Interestingly, the one not giving up
39:35on a Trump-Kim summit at this stage is
39:37South Korea. South Korea says that
39:42although it is difficult to predict a
39:44specific timetable, they will continue
39:46to coordinate closely with the U.S. and
39:48put in the necessary diplomatic effort
39:50to ensure U.S.-North Korea talks happen
39:52as soon as possible. So, in reality,
39:57South Korea is still the most proactive
40:00party regarding the summit. However,
40:04North Korea has recently been accusing
40:06South Korea of fabricating the landmine
40:09incident at the border. So, how should
40:13we look at the Korean Peninsula, the
40:15relations between China and the two
40:17Koreas, and the relationship between
40:20the U.S. and both Koreas?
40:24>> To understand this, we have to look at
40:26the big picture: in our past impression
40:28, North Korea was extremely poor. The
40:31people could not even get enough to eat
40:33. There were defectors, extreme
40:35sanctions, and Kim Jong Un’s brutal
40:37tactics, like the artillery executions
40:39and the dog executions—a whole lot of
40:42things. But in the last three years,
40:44the atmosphere in North Korea has
40:46changed. Their military capabilities
40:49have grown rapidly with Russian support
40:51, giving them nuclear retaliatory power
40:53. They are now focusing on economic
40:55development. Why do they want to
40:57develop their economy? Developing the
41:00economy doesn't have much to do with
41:01Russia, which is a poor yet large
41:03country. Militarily and for security,
41:05they have a deep connection with Russia
41:07. They have some old grievances with
41:10China, stemming from the Six-Party
41:12Talks and the sanctions, which created
41:14some distance between the two.
41:16>> There was indeed a low point. There was
41:18a low point, so why did Kim Jong Un go
41:21to attend the Korean War commemoration?
41:24He wanted to mend ties, and China-North
41:27Korea relations are naturally easy to
41:29bridge because we have many Chinese
41:31citizens of Korean descent on the
41:33Liaodong Peninsula.
41:35>> Once you cross over from Dandong, you
41:37are in North Korea.
41:38>> Now that the bridge is open, trade has
41:41started, and honestly, the people on
41:43both sides can communicate because they
41:45all speak Korean.
41:47>> Trade volume has increased sharply in
41:49recent years.
41:50>> So, politics follows the economy. Why
41:54does he dare to engage so boldly with
41:56China now? One reason is economic
41:59necessity. Second, Kim Jong Un has
42:01already abandoned the idea of unifying
42:02with South Korea.
42:03>> Yes, they even amended their
42:04constitution.
42:05>> Yes, amended the constitution.
42:07>> Amended the constitution to not just
42:08abandon reunification, but to
42:09explicitly reject it.
42:10>> Rejecting reunification. Coincidentally
42:12, the South Korean public has long
42:14rejected being a pawn in the U.S.'s
42:16election wars. So, there won't be any
42:18major conflict between the two. This
42:20has finally led to a bit of a joke. The
42:24U.S. Army commander mentioned that they
42:27fear the two Koreas no longer need U.S.
42:29control; there is vaguely a sense of
42:31that. The U.S. feels that since North
42:35Korea isn't attacking the South anymore
42:37, what reason do American troops have
42:39to stay and defend South Korea? South
42:43Korea says, "You’re forcing me to
42:45spend money on your semiconductors and
42:47whatnot, plus increasing military
42:49spending, but my own economy is
42:51struggling too." So, in this complex
42:55environment, Kim Jong Un’s sudden
42:57move to visit China is very interesting
43:00—very interesting indeed. It
43:03signifies that the northern door is
43:05open, and there are no worries about
43:07the South; that landmine incident was a
43:09minor matter, not even worth discussing
43:11. It only proves that the 38th parallel
43:14still exists, so I think the overall
43:16atmosphere is changing. Why does China
43:20want to win over North Korea? Because
43:23Japanese militarism is acting up. Don't
43:26Russia, North Korea, and China need to
43:28keep you in check?
43:31>> So Gao Miao is also eager to meet Trump
43:33, and Xian wants to see him too; all of
43:35this has to do with the United States.
43:40Because the U.S. has troops stationed
43:42there, this issue will make the
43:43international conference quite lively.
43:46I agree with what Xiang Long said:
43:48there won't be major changes, but
43:50probing each other’s bottom line is
43:51clear—what are you sure you want?
43:53What do you really want? Is he
43:55indispensable to you? Or what am I
43:57willing to concede? This meeting will
43:58have results, but they won't be
44:00publicized; it won't be blatant, like "
44:02from now on, this is how it will be,"
44:04right? That’s impossible, because
44:05this is different from the Yalta
44:07Conference. The Yalta Conference was
44:09about countries already on the
44:10battlefield; if they didn't define
44:12spheres of influence, they would have
44:14started fighting each other. You know
44:16Montgomery and Patton were competing to
44:18race forward, and Zhukov and Eisenhower
44:20were competing over who would take
44:22Germany.
44:25>> The first two were American and British
44:27generals, and the latter two were
44:28Soviet and American generals; as they
44:30all raced forward, they were each using
44:32military force to claim their own
44:34territory. You have to occupy territory
44:37to have leverage in talks, which is why
44:39Berlin ended up divided into East and
44:41West.
44:42>> Right? This was all about land grabbing
44:44.
44:44>> But now there is no such territory,
44:46except on the Russia-Ukraine
44:47battlefield.
44:48>> There is no current war for seizing
44:50territory.
44:51>> So it’s not a question of carving up
44:53the world into three parts.
44:56>> The most serious issue is the division
44:58of spheres of influence, which is why
44:59NATO doesn't want Ukraine to join now.
45:02>> Hmm.
45:03>> They can't bear that burden or that
45:05baggage. That's right, exactly. Okay,
45:07so Han Bing, what is your take? Kim
45:09Jong-un suddenly appeared in Dandong.
45:12Of course, saying he’s dead is just
45:14an international joke; some people keep
45:17manufacturing this rumor, probably
45:19three or five times a year.
45:25>> But the focal point is the change in
45:27his grand strategy, a shift that
45:28Beijing is encouraging. Even South
45:33Korea is encouraging it. This
45:37encouragement from Beijing and South
45:39Korea will inevitably bring significant
45:41changes to the situation on the Korean
45:43Peninsula, and the U.S. must consider
45:45how to view it—first from a security
45:47perspective, and second, regarding its
45:49sphere of influence. South Korea was
45:55originally in the palm of my hand; U.S.
45:57forces in Korea basically controlled
45:59all your defense-related matters, but
46:01if the South Korean public truly
46:03changes their attitude, will this also
46:05change? It won't happen immediately,
46:10but this is clearly what Lee Jae-myung
46:12hopes to shape, you see.
46:14>> For Lee Jae-myung, his current poll
46:16numbers are low and internal backlash
46:17is severe; he feels that if things
46:19could move toward a more reconciliatory
46:21situation between the two Koreas
46:22externally, then that would certainly
46:24be a good thing for him, whether for
46:26his personal reputation or to shift
46:28focus, it’s all good for him. But
46:29this is obviously something South Korea
46:31cannot lead, because it depends on the
46:33overall big picture. As for North Korea
46:35, I think after the Russia-Ukraine war,
46:38and even up to now, what is their
46:40biggest improvement? The fact is that
46:41countries around the world have tacitly
46:43accepted that they possess nuclear
46:44weapons.
46:45>> Yes.
46:45>> Everyone has accepted it, including
46:47mainland China, which used to oppose it
46:49, but now basically accepts it. Even
46:51Trump no longer seeks to demand they
46:52denuclearize, so they have essentially
46:54become a world-recognized nuclear state
46:56. In this situation, as the General
46:57just mentioned, Kim Jong-un has an
46:59urgent need to improve his economic
47:01environment because the economy is
47:02truly in bad shape. In reality, his
47:04domestic situation is very poor, as he
47:06has spent most of his resources over
47:08the years developing these weapons.
47:10Regarding Russia, the Russia-Ukraine
47:11war has actually helped him, and Russia
47:13has provided him with some things, but
47:15it’s not enough, and the support from
47:17China is also limited. For Kim Jong-un,
47:20I think Trump seems to be stepping back
47:22, but as for Kim, I think he might want
47:24to attend APEC. Although he
47:27>> Do you think Kim Jong-un has become the
47:29one who is more proactive now?
47:30>> Yes, I think it has become Kim Jong-un,
47:32because he believes his status is
47:33relatively secure and everyone has
47:35acknowledged his nuclear weapons, but
47:37he is not an APEC member. True, but the
47:39issue is that China is the host this
47:41year.
47:41>> China has the authority to invite him.
47:43So I wonder if he is vying for this
47:44opportunity; otherwise, take the
47:46China-North Korea bridge, which was
47:47actually completed on the mainland side
47:49back in 2014.
47:50>> Yes, that’s true.
47:51>> They were waiting for you, waiting for
47:53North Korea to hurry up and build that
47:54connecting road.
47:55>> Yes, they dragged it out, delaying it
47:57until this year when they finally
47:58finished it. I think they specifically
48:00rushed to finish it this year just to
48:02seize this opportunity, and through
48:04this pretext, initiate another contact
48:06with mainland China. Of course, he has
48:08many intentions, and he hopes to see if
48:11mainland China might...Actually, for
48:13Trump now, back in his 1.0 era, he went
48:15straight to meet Kim. But now, in 2.0,
48:18he was saying a while ago, "Maybe I'll
48:20go meet Kim Jong-un!" But he hasn't
48:22mentioned it lately. Why? Because the
48:24situation is very clear now. As the
48:26General just said, it's China, Russia,
48:28and North Korea versus Japan right now.
48:30Because Sanae Takaichi wants what is
48:32called a "normal state," and some even
48:33say she wants remilitarization. The
48:35U.S. has the U.S.-Japan alliance, after
48:37all. Theoretically, he cannot get too
48:39close to North Korea, especially since
48:41they keep launching missiles and making
48:43threats. So, under these circumstances,
48:45Trump might not be able to show a very
48:47proactive attitude. So you think
48:49Japan's lobbying has really made Trump
48:51cool off slightly on a Trump-Kim summit
48:53?
48:54>> I think he has cooled down, but I don't
48:56know for how long, because Trump is a
48:58person who changes at any moment; no
49:00one knows where he’ll end up. I must
49:04say, among world leaders, although
49:06Trump once used Pearl Harbor to tease
49:09Sanae Takaichi, he is relatively decent
49:11to her.
49:12>> I think so. For example, he was willing
49:14to meet her before meeting Xi Jinping.
49:16He even called her after meeting with
49:18Xi Jinping, so I think he treats Sanae
49:20Takaichi with considerable regard.
49:21>> At least at this stage, I think Sanae
49:23Takaichi is still a person Trump
49:25respects to a certain degree, but the
49:28question is how long this situation can
49:30last. Maybe after a while, once the
49:32midterm elections are over, Trump might
49:35have different considerations. So, I
49:37think this change is constant, and we
49:40can only observe, because Xi Jinping
49:42may not necessarily truly want this to
49:44happen.
49:45>> You mean the Trump-Kim summit?
49:46>> Yes, I don't think he necessarily wants
49:48it. Right, because it might not be a
49:50very beneficial thing for him either.
49:51So I think all sides have their own
49:53interests—China has its interests,
49:54and the U.S. has its interests. So I
49:56think we'll just have to wait and see,
49:57because if China doesn't extend an
49:59invitation, Kim Jong-un can't go even
50:00if he wants to.
50:01>> Hmm. All right, so what General Shuai
50:04just mentioned is a shift in the
50:05overall landscape. In the context of
50:09Northeast Asia, once Kim Jong Un felt
50:11his position was secure—especially
50:13his status as a nuclear-armed state—
50:15he could feel emboldened to amend the
50:17constitution. He is no longer seeking
50:21the unification of the Korean Peninsula
50:23, which creates conditions for a
50:25relatively peaceful relationship with
50:26South Korea. Secondly, he is beginning
50:30to seek breakthroughs in the economy
50:32and looking to open up. It seems North
50:35Korea’s stance is becoming
50:36increasingly clear. Under these clear
50:41circumstances, will the U.S. maintain a
50:43lukewarm attitude toward meeting with
50:45Kim Jong Un due to constraints from
50:46Japan? And what is mainland China’s
50:50stance on a potential Trump-Kim summit?
50:54This is actually critical, because even
50:56if it doesn't happen in Shenzhen, in
50:58the future, if North Korea and the U.S.
51:00want to establish a viable negotiation
51:02mechanism, it still has to go through
51:04mainland China. So, how do you see it?
51:09>> Since North Korea already has nuclear
51:11weapons, I think China has been quite
51:14passive toward the Trump-Kim summits
51:16from the past until now. Basically, you
51:18don’t see China expressing any very
51:20active stance of support or opposition.
51:23On the contrary, during the last
51:25Trump-Kim summit, China even had to
51:27provide the aircraft. Because Kim Jong
51:29Un, other than his activities along the
51:31China-North Korea border, feels uneasy
51:33anywhere else.
51:34>> He always takes the train.
51:36>> He always takes the train, so he takes
51:38his...
51:38>> His special train.
51:40>> Right, so you see, this time when he
51:42went to Dandong, he also took his
51:44Maybach.
51:45>> Mhm.
51:46>> Of course, that Maybach—when a
51:48national leader is still using another
51:50country's car as their own official
51:52vehicle, it shows your level of
51:54development is, basically, just average
51:56. But his visit to Dandong this time—
51:59I really think we shouldn't first
52:00consider what has changed between China
52:03and North Korea, but rather that a
52:04significant change must have occurred
52:06in North Korea’s own thinking.
52:09>> The situation in North Korea now is
52:11roughly like China in the early days of
52:13its Reform and Opening-up in the 1980s.
52:16It has been frozen, frozen for 70 years
52:19, sealed off for 70 years.
52:21Geographically speaking, it has locked
52:23itself in by bolting both the front and
52:25back doors. To the south, there is the
52:2738th parallel, which it bolted itself;
52:30to the north, there is the Yalu River,
52:32which it also bolted itself. It
52:33doesn’t come out, and it doesn’t
52:35let anyone in. This is the most unique
52:37country on Earth; it doesn't let people
52:39out, and it doesn't let them in.
52:41>> It is locked away.
52:42>> Right, but Kim Jong-un's North Korea is
52:44different from Cuba. There are only
52:46four socialist countries left on Earth,
52:48and Cuba has been locked down by others
52:50. True.
52:50>> But Kim Jong-un has locked himself in,
52:52which makes him very different. Yet
52:54today, among the four socialist
52:56countries, China has reached its
52:58current level of development, and
52:59there’s another one he can see:
53:01Vietnam.
53:02>> Since Vietnam has developed to this
53:04level, and Kim Jong-un even has nuclear
53:06weapons, we usually talk about
53:07geopolitics in Asia, but what's most
53:10fascinating is the geo-economics.
53:11>> Exactly. With Asia's economic
53:15development at this stage, it generates
53:1750%of the world's annual economic
53:19growth.
53:21>> So, half of global growth is
53:22contributed by Asia.
53:24>> Right, every single year, and it’s
53:26been that way for a long time. It’s
53:29strange that North Korea is left out.
53:31So, his trip to Dandong feels like
53:33he’s finally unlocking those doors he
53:35kept shut. It’s like the room has
53:37opened, and he’s starting to peek his
53:39head out to take a look around.
53:40There’s one thing about Kim Jong-un
53:42that I’ve always found worth
53:44observing: he studied abroad.
53:46>> In Switzerland.
53:47>> He likes the NBA.
53:48>> Yes.
53:49>> He has an interest in Michael Jordan
53:51and others, and he’s even fond of
53:53Rodman.
53:55>> You see, this "bad boy" plays that kind
53:57of ball. I mean, someone with that kind
54:01of background, having had a taste of
54:03Western education and lived among
54:05Westerners, his motivation to open the
54:07door and look outward seems quite
54:09genuine—he simply wants to know what
54:11life is like out there. He knows better
54:15than the vast majority of North Koreans
54:17what the outside world is like. He
54:19can’t just deceive himself with a
54:21closed-off world anymore. I think that
54:24trip to Dandong was a very clear signal
54:26that he’s opening the door. A
54:29national leader who usually doesn't let
54:31anyone in or out is now crossing the
54:33Yalu River as if he’s just walking
54:35into his own kitchen. This will likely
54:37become normalized. If I, Kim Jong-un,
54:39go for a walk somewhere in Northeast
54:42China, don't be so surprised. I’m
54:44just opening the door and wandering
54:46around the yard right outside my home.
54:48After all, everyone knows there are
54:50quite a few ethnic Koreans in the
54:52Northeast. Yes.
54:53>> Their language and culture are
54:55interconnected, even if they continue
54:57to argue over who Changbai Mountain
54:58belongs to. So, Kim Jong-un interacting
55:01with the Northeast region is perfectly
55:03fine. But this time he specifically
55:05took that bridge, even though not long
55:07ago, there was another bridge that
55:09opened between North Korea and Russia,
55:11which he didn't visit.
55:12>> Once that bridge opened, it was
55:14technically connected. Now that you put
55:16it that way, do you think he might go
55:17and take a trip across that one too?
55:19>> No, he won't, because after all, 90%of
55:21his trade is with China. His
55:25relationship with Russia is based on
55:27political and military mutual trust;
55:29economically, even Russia has to rely
55:31on China. Kim Jong-un doesn't need to
55:36go there for economic reasons, as
55:37Russia doesn't have much to offer him
55:39right now. But his relationship with
55:43China is substantial. That’s why I
55:48think his visit to the Northeast,
55:50especially to that vehicle factory—
55:52that factory, the Shuguang Automotive,
55:54a state-owned enterprise, or the
55:56Hwanghae factory—is significant.
56:02Everyone knows the Northeast is the
56:04Rust Belt, so that factory can't be
56:06compared to the ones we see in Shenzhen
56:08today, but it is built for large-scale
56:10production.
56:13>> Because it’s heavy industry, it
56:15actually still has the capacity to
56:17manufacture large items.
56:19>> I watched the North Korean news footage
56:21, and he wasn't just going through the
56:23motions at that factory; he was looking
56:25very closely. Hmm.
56:27>> In other words, I believe that vehicle
56:28factory will have a cooperative
56:30relationship with North Korea. If you
56:34view it like China's explosive decade
56:36after opening up in the 1980s, I
56:37believe that once North Korea opens its
56:39doors, it will definitely experience a
56:41boom. And China will be the one to
56:46enjoy the sweet, first bite of that
56:47sugarcane. China is the most qualified
56:51to reap the dividends of this reform
56:52and opening up. As for who will get the
56:56tail end of that sugarcane, we can talk
56:58about that later, but China is
56:59certainly going to get the first bite.
57:04That matter, along with the upcoming
57:06APEC, is exactly what Han Bing just
57:08mentioned. Today, as he begins to test
57:14the waters and open up, seeking a path
57:16toward reform and opening, he is likely
57:18looking back at his youth—watching
57:20basketball with Rodman and the joyful
57:22memories of his life in Europe. He
57:27wants to open up, but once he does, can
57:29he integrate into the Asian
57:31geopolitical economy? He must go
57:33through China; only China can lead the
57:35way for him. That is his only chance.
57:37Without China leading the way, he won't
57:39be able to enter. He lacks the capacity
57:41to handle complex Asian geopolitics; he
57:44cannot deal with South Korea, Japan, or
57:46the United States. His relationship
57:48with ASEAN nations is actually quite
57:49tense. Don't forget that he had him
57:51assassinated in Malaysia.
57:52>> Yes, that's right, the assassination.
57:55Because of this, ASEAN's vigilance
57:56toward him remains extremely high. In
57:59other words, if China doesn't take him
58:00by the hand, he will still be left just
58:02staring at the water and scenery along
58:04the Yalu River. So, I believe he is
58:07using this APEC summit as an
58:09opportunity to allow North Korea to
58:11open a new chapter. I have always
58:13believed that North Korea is going to
58:14open up, and its opening is a major
58:16event for Northeast Asia. North Korea
58:18intends to open up and wants to seize
58:20this APEC opportunity; it seems that is
58:21the attitude he is projecting. Now we
58:24have to wait and see, because for him
58:25to open up, South Korea's attitude is
58:27also crucial. Whether he can capitalize
58:31on Yoon Suk-yeol's term to build a new
58:32relationship will depend on his wisdom.
58:35>> Alright, we want to thank Longfengbao
58:38BFK001 for the donation. And here is GP
58:40, thank you for your donation. He says
58:42this is his first time seeing Brother
58:44Bin here, and he looks so full of
58:46energy. He also saw Sister Feng's green
58:51dress, which is truly rare and looks
58:53particularly good, just like Disney's
58:55Tinker Bell. And Longfengbao, thank you
58:58for your donation. Also, here is Huang
59:00H, thank you for the donation. He says
59:02some of the assessments are actually a
59:04bit too optimistic. For example,
59:05regarding the US Congressional hearings
59:07: look at all the things Biden's son
59:09did in Ukraine and the money he
59:11laundered. The Republican-led Congress
59:12couldn't push forward any investigation
59:14, and before leaving office, he
59:16pardoned his son and the whole family,
59:18allowing them to walk away completely
59:20unscathed. Regarding the issue of
59:21negotiations, back then in Turkey,
59:23after several rounds of talks, nothing
59:26substantial came of it. Many agreements
59:28were discussed, but they weren't
59:30finalized. The key remains whether
59:33China and the US can divide Europe
59:35together, for instance, Australia.
59:37Alright, Longfengbao16, thank you for
59:39continuing to donate. And here is MLN,
59:41thanks for your donation. He says he's
59:44been a member for a month. Hello
59:45Brother Tang, Hello Sister Feng, can we
59:48talk about the domestic elections for
59:50our final topic? Two minutes for each
59:53person, because yesterday's topics were
59:55basically centered on the Blue Camp and
59:57Kevin Tsai. First, Kevin Tsai suddenly
1:00:00posted on Weibo, saying, "I have always
1:00:02been against Taiwan independence; I
1:00:04have never supported Taiwan
1:00:05independence. I have never supported
1:00:08Taiwan independence." Then, regarding
1:00:10this matter, wow, PUMA Shen immediately
1:00:12claimed Chinese interference, and
1:00:14Chiang Wan-an said he wouldn't accept
1:00:16such threats. It seems the DPP hopes to
1:00:19replicate the Tzuyu incident with Kevin
1:00:21Tsai. Can it be replicated? The second
1:00:24point is the great unity of the Blue
1:00:26Camp, with the establishment of Chiang
1:00:28Wan-an's campaign headquarters. The
1:00:29third part is the Blue-White
1:00:31integration, which is now showing even
1:00:33more momentum, not only with Hsinchu
1:00:35Mayor Kao Hung-an supporting Chiang
1:00:37Wan-an, but Huang Kuo-chang also
1:00:39declaring his full support for Chiang.
1:00:41Two minutes each to share your views. I
1:00:44think because Chiang Wan-an started
1:00:45late, he felt he had to deal with the
1:00:47city government's budget matters. Plus,
1:00:49during the typhoon, he acted like a
1:00:51disciplined civil servant, only
1:00:53starting his campaign once the election
1:00:55leave began. PUMA Shen is different; he
1:00:57doesn't even have to show up for work
1:00:59at the Legislative Yuan and just spends
1:01:01his days there running his mouth. So I
1:01:03am still very optimistic about this
1:01:05situation. I believe Taipei citizens
1:01:08are not so easily fooled, and these
1:01:10waves of attacks are not just against
1:01:12Chiang Wan-an—he is facing not just a
1:01:14city mayoral election, but
1:01:16national-level pressure.
1:01:18>> Hmm.
1:01:18>> Look at how much money and resources
1:01:20the other side has. Someone should
1:01:22compile the statistics. PUMA Shen's
1:01:24billboards alone cost over 100 million.
1:01:26Can the KMT even bring out...
1:01:27>> They spent a huge amount of money.
1:01:29>> Spent a lot of money.
1:01:30>> A massive amount of money.
1:01:31>> Mobilization. Many of these protesters
1:01:34are not even locals. So the question is
1:01:36, while the momentum looks huge, today
1:01:38we finally saw Chiang Wan-an call for a
1:01:41counterattack. I still have great
1:01:43confidence in the Taipei mayoral
1:01:45election. I hope everyone won't be
1:01:47overwhelmed by such pressure and money;
1:01:50we have our own autonomy.
1:01:52>> Alright, Han Bing, you've been
1:01:54observing elections for a long time, so
1:01:56how do you see Chiang Wan-an's current
1:01:58call for a counterattack?
1:02:00>> Well, a while ago, Brother Xiaolong
1:02:02also interviewed Chiang Wan-an. And
1:02:04back then, I felt Chiang's entire aura
1:02:06was off. Yeah.
1:02:07>> He looked very stifled, and seemed to
1:02:10lack strong self-confidence.
1:02:11>> I just felt this was completely...
1:02:13>> Yes, completely different from the
1:02:15person I used to know.
1:02:16>> He seemed dazed from that wave of
1:02:18attacks by the DPP, like he didn't know
1:02:20what to do.
1:02:20>> But I think he looked different
1:02:22yesterday.
1:02:22>> Yesterday, his whole face...
1:02:24>> Yes, he really came alive. I think the
1:02:26atmosphere at the scene helped him lift
1:02:28the energy; it's said several people
1:02:30there even cried on the spot. Yes, yes,
1:02:32yes, there really were people moved by
1:02:34that atmosphere.
1:02:35>> Exactly, so I feel that his momentum is
1:02:37finally coming back.
1:02:39>> As for Kevin Tsai, frankly, this has no
1:02:41comparison to the Chou Tzu-yu incident.
1:02:43Chou was just a young girl back then,
1:02:45following her group, and when the group
1:02:47did something that offended mainland
1:02:48China, she was forced by her company to
1:02:50apologize. Kevin Tsai, on the other
1:02:52hand, was always an independent
1:02:53individual, and he made his own
1:02:55decisions. Right, and I have to call
1:02:57him "Brother Kevin," because he's older
1:02:59than me and has had so many years of
1:03:00life experience.
1:03:01>> He's so experienced and so smart; I
1:03:03believe that whenever he does something
1:03:05, he must be very clear about what he
1:03:07is doing. So, whatever the consequences
1:03:10may be, he should have known what he
1:03:12was getting into, and he must bear them
1:03:14. As for why he suddenly wrote that
1:03:16article, honestly, I don't know. But if
1:03:19you say it was due to pressure from
1:03:20mainland China, what would writing that
1:03:22article achieve? It's actually
1:03:24meaningless. Plus, look, after he wrote
1:03:26that, did people over there forgive him
1:03:28? It doesn't seem so. Everyone still
1:03:31feels that he's hedging, that he
1:03:32doesn't even dare to call himself
1:03:34Chinese. So personally, I think he
1:03:37might have felt that his previous
1:03:39actions caused hurt to his partners,
1:03:41agents, and even some fans in mainland
1:03:43China. I think he might have written
1:03:46this to express that to them, but to
1:03:47say this will help Kevin Tsai relaunch
1:03:49his career in mainland China—I think
1:03:51that's impossible. Mm.
1:03:53>> So...
1:03:53>> He said so himself.
1:03:55>> Right, so I personally believe this is
1:03:57his own individual decision. It’s
1:03:59completely incomparable to the Chou
1:04:01Tzu-yu incident. And I must say, if my
1:04:03prediction is correct, in the future,
1:04:05Chiang could call this typhoon a "
1:04:07divine wind." I feel that after this
1:04:09typhoon, the whole momentum has
1:04:11completely changed, and Chiang
1:04:12Wan-an’s energy and spirit are
1:04:14different too. I think he’s come back
1:04:16to life, and I’m very optimistic
1:04:17about the year-end election.
1:04:19>> Right, so the typhoon saved Chiang
1:04:20Wan-an.
1:04:21>> It wasn’t a matter of saving him;
1:04:22there was no problem with declaring a
1:04:24typhoon day this time, because those of
1:04:25us in Taipei know that this was the
1:04:27most frightening typhoon I’ve seen
1:04:28all year. No, all of Taiwan except for
1:04:30Kinmen closed down. Who else could have
1:04:32done that? True, but while you might
1:04:34not feel it in Southern Taiwan, it
1:04:36really was the case in Northern Taiwan
1:04:38this time. This typhoon brought many
1:04:41issues to the surface, including the
1:04:42problems with the roads mentioned
1:04:44earlier. Everyone realizes that those
1:04:48road patterns truly need moderate
1:04:50adjustments; it’s not about saying "
1:04:52no" to all speed reductions or tree
1:04:54pruning, it’s just whether there is a
1:04:56way to do it without making people feel
1:04:58too many trees are being cut. Chiang
1:05:04Wan-an compared Kevin Tsai to Chou
1:05:06Tzu-yu yesterday—who exactly are you
1:05:08trying to disgust with that? The Chou
1:05:13Tzu-yu incident occurred in January
1:05:162016. Chou Tzu-yu was 17 years old at
1:05:19the time. She had just turned 16 or 17.
1:05:22She is 27 this year, and Kevin Tsai is
1:05:25about to get his Senior Citizen card
1:05:27next year. Right.
1:05:29>> So, you’re putting them together,
1:05:31you’re treating Kevin Tsai like a
1:05:32senior citizen—that’s something
1:05:34he’s very afraid of now. Meaning, he
1:05:37won’t have to pay for the bus, and
1:05:39won’t need to pull out his phone to
1:05:40pay. Even though Kevin Tsai is an adult
1:05:46, after his post came out yesterday, I
1:05:48honestly didn’t see anyone in public
1:05:50opinion find his argument convincing.
1:05:55Everyone just felt: why do you have to
1:05:57pretend so hard? He supported the
1:06:00Sunflower Movement back then. I’ve
1:06:02said it before, the Sunflower Movement
1:06:03was Taiwan’s color revolution. Let me
1:06:05remind you, the 2014 Sunflower Movement
1:06:07was in the same year as the color
1:06:09revolution in Ukraine.
1:06:10>> Yes.
1:06:11>> Only two months apart, they were in the
1:06:13same system. Just like Ukraine being
1:06:15overthrown today, the so-called "
1:06:16student list"—Ukraine says this was
1:06:18fully orchestrated by the CIA, and they
1:06:20recognize they were overthrown by the
1:06:23CIA. We can settle those accounts later
1:06:27, but today, when you see Kevin Tsai
1:06:28making these statements, and you want
1:06:30to sickeningly suggest that it’s as
1:06:32if he’s under pressure from China.
1:06:36You don't have to accept it, but you
1:06:38can't go to China, seek endorsements,
1:06:39and earn money, only to return and
1:06:41support a Taiwan independence figure
1:06:43wanted by the Chinese mainland. And
1:06:45then what, the Chinese mainland isn't
1:06:47allowed to speak up? I think the
1:06:48official stance from mainland China has
1:06:50been quite polite. Although a public
1:06:54account wrote a post, they didn't name
1:06:55him, and other mainland officials—as
1:06:57long as you don't see Xinhua News
1:06:59Agency, you don't see the People's
1:07:01Daily, and you don't see CCTV naming
1:07:02you, they are basically letting you off
1:07:04the hook.
1:07:06>> As a result, even the Taiwan Affairs
1:07:08Office didn't name him. Right, so
1:07:10actually, from the mainland's
1:07:11perspective regarding Kevin Tsai this
1:07:13time, I think they are just watching to
1:07:15see what you do next. That's why Kevin
1:07:19Tsai posted that thing yesterday and
1:07:21showed more active participation at the
1:07:23event. Although it still felt very
1:07:27forced, and because he's an actor, he's
1:07:30acting, so we can't really tell.
1:07:33>> He's not an actor, he's a host. True,
1:07:36but regardless, he showed more
1:07:37participation in that setting. The real
1:07:40suffering is that the "Blue Bird" crowd
1:07:42had a very hard day yesterday. They
1:07:46came out in full force to spin the
1:07:47narrative, trying to flip the Kevin
1:07:49Tsai situation back and start attacking
1:07:51him. Their only logic, like Shen
1:07:55Pao-yang's, is that because he was
1:07:57under pressure from the CCP and immense
1:07:59pressure from Beijing, no one should be
1:08:01allowed to suppress Taiwanese people's
1:08:03freedom of expression. But usually in
1:08:06Taiwan, who do you feel is suppressing
1:08:09your freedom of expression—the KMT or
1:08:11the DPP?
1:08:13>> I think this is a very real feeling for
1:08:14Taiwanese people. But yesterday,
1:08:18regarding Shen Pao-yang, I am reminding
1:08:20Kevin Tsai that Shen Pao-yang claims to
1:08:22be an expert in cognitive warfare. Shen
1:08:25Pao-yang has a Ph.D. in criminal
1:08:27psychology. If you look at what Shen
1:08:29Pao-yang said about Kevin Tsai from the
1:08:31perspective of a criminal psychology
1:08:33expert, he believes that what Kevin
1:08:35Tsai did yesterday...You, Kevin Tsai,
1:08:37you are lying. Deep down you love me,
1:08:40you support me, but you don't dare say
1:08:42it, and you still have to act all
1:08:43chummy with the mainland—no need to
1:08:45be like that. Yesterday, Shen Pao-yang
1:08:47used his professional background to
1:08:49tell you that Kevin Tsai is being fake.
1:08:51That he is still actually on my side.
1:08:54Kevin Tsai, everything you did
1:08:56yesterday was completely wiped away by
1:08:58a single remark from Shen Pao-yang.
1:09:00Unless Kevin Tsai continues, but anyway
1:09:02, he's already had his fill for today.
1:09:04Kevin, next time you come out, just
1:09:07wave a No. 5, No. 5, No. 5; it will be
1:09:10effective.
1:09:11>> The whole issue of whether to take a
1:09:13stand or not shouldn't actually be
1:09:15something forced upon any artist. I
1:09:17mean, which Hollywood artists don't
1:09:19have the choice not to take a stand?
1:09:21>> Now, if you're talking about young
1:09:23girls who face pressure behind their
1:09:24stances, we naturally support them, of
1:09:26course.
1:09:28>> But Kevin Tsai has years of experience
1:09:30in society, and he is truly so much
1:09:32more famous than I am.
1:09:33>> Yeah.
1:09:34>> He is also much wealthier than I am;
1:09:36though that’s not the point, he is
1:09:38indeed much wealthier than I am.
1:09:40>> You are really being too humble.
1:09:42>> He has reached such a level of
1:09:43financial freedom. To say that someone
1:09:47would pressure him...That would either
1:09:48mean he is too greedy, or you are
1:09:50insulting him; for me, those are the
1:09:52only two interpretations.
1:09:54>> Exactly, never try to explain Kevin
1:09:56Tsai's actions from a financial
1:09:58perspective. Right, you have to think,
1:10:01he’s much wealthier than the vast
1:10:02majority of people in Taiwan. I don't
1:10:06know how rich Shen Pao-yang is, but
1:10:08Kevin is already wealthier than most
1:10:10people in Taiwan. If you say he
1:10:14succumbed to pressure because of money,
1:10:16I think anyone with less wealth than
1:10:18Kevin wouldn't accept that; perhaps
1:10:20only those with far more money than him
1:10:21might believe it, right? So let's
1:10:26discuss it in that way. Alright, lastly
1:10:28, thank you, Beautiful, for the
1:10:30donation, and thank you all very much.
1:10:33We just started on Tuesdays, and I've
1:10:35noticed that YouTube notifications
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