【#財經風向球】周邊都更你家反而沒份?!揭老宅被孤立的殘酷代價 公寓留給下一代能翻身? ft. 帥過頭 20261021 @中天電視CtiTv ‪@中天財經頻道CtiFinance — Transcript

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1. 0:00Previously, Brother Shuai, you were
2. 0:01very pessimistic about the issue of
3. 0:03urban renewal. I really don't have the
4. 0:06lifespan to play this game with you; I
5. 0:08think people will just listen to this,
6. 0:10and I’ll buy it under my daughter's
7. 0:11name, then rent it out for 50 years,
8. 0:13waiting for that explosive profit. I
9. 0:16won't have an increase in floor area
10. 0:18ratio,
11. 0:19>> but I can build more. The landowners
12. 0:22benefit, but who are the landowners?
13. 0:26Will this stimulate the market for
14. 0:27existing apartments in Taipei?
15. 0:30>> Huge surge,
16. 0:31>> Wow, a huge surge.
17. 0:33>> You can't wait for the Dajieguo results
18. 0:35. You wait for the Songshan Airport
19. 0:37redevelopment; where is the biggest
20. 0:38profit in that? What does Songshan
21. 0:41Airport have to do with you? I...
22. 0:44>> Give it to you. Hello, viewers and
23. 0:51friends, welcome to Finance Trends. I
24. 0:53am your host, Xiao Bi. Today we have
25. 0:55invited Brother Shuai to the studio.
26. 0:56Hello, Brother Shuai.
27. 0:58>> Hello, everyone. Let's talk about
28. 0:59Chiang Wan-an's urban renewal policy.
29. 1:01Previously, Brother Shuai advised that
30. 1:03"everyone should absolutely stop buying
31. 1:05or touching apartments in Taipei City."
32. 1:09Now that this urban renewal package has
33. 1:10been launched, do you think it offers
34. 1:12any significant incentives for current
35. 1:14apartment owners or those looking to
36. 1:15buy?
37. 1:18>> Yes.
38. 1:18>> Yes.
39. 1:19>> Where is the "beef" in all this?
40. 1:21>> Hmm,
41. 1:23>> And this beef is given to you for free.
42. 1:27The official name is the "Dajieguo"
43. 1:29urban renewal.
44. 1:30>> Dajieguo urban renewal.
45. 1:31>> The first requirement for the Dajieguo
46. 1:34plan is 3,000 ping of land. Second, it
47. 1:36must be near an MRT station.
48. 1:38>> Hmm,
49. 1:39>> Or facing a river,
50. 1:41>> or permanent open space,
51. 1:44>> it must meet these conditions. Now
52. 1:46Chiang Wan-an is telling you there are
53. 1:48two sites that qualify.
54. 1:49>> Hmm,
55. 1:50>> The first is the First Funeral Parlor,
56. 1:52right next to the MRT...
57. 1:54>> Xingtian Temple Station,
58. 1:56>> Xingtian Temple MRT station; it's 1.5
59. 1:59hectares,
60. 2:00>> which is 4,500 ping.
61. 2:02>> Greater than the required 3,000 ping by
62. 2:04907 ping; this is the first one. Hmm,
63. 2:07>> The second is the 2,100-ping site next
64. 2:09to the Nangang Exhibition Center.
65. 2:11>> OK,
66. 2:12>> Because it's near Nangang,
67. 2:15>> the probability is high, and these two
68. 2:17will be used as demonstrations.
69. 2:20>> In other words, maybe these two will
70. 2:22actually move forward. I think the one
71. 2:24next to the Nangang Exhibition Center
72. 2:26will move first.
73. 2:28>> It has the strongest symbolic
74. 2:29significance. Yes, because that First
75. 2:32Funeral Parlor site needs to be used as
76. 2:34a parking lot for a while to "sunbathe.
77. 2:36"
78. 2:37>> It needs to be left idle for a bit.
79. 2:39>> To fade away people's lingering
80. 2:40feelings about the funeral parlor.
81. 2:42>> Yes, it needs to. Building houses like
82. 2:44this is strange; last time Ko Wen-je
83. 2:47mentioned Shezi Island. Then came the
84. 2:49focus on Danian. Then the airport
85. 2:52relocation project. And then Dajieguo.
86. 2:56>> Hmm.
87. 2:57>> It’s always just these four. Going
88. 2:59around in circles, it's always just
89. 3:00these four. I’m curious, we keep
90. 3:03talking about urban renewal, but what
91. 3:06we often see is either issues with
92. 3:08earthworks or developers—especially
93. 3:10small-to-medium ones—facing rising
94. 3:12construction costs, so they just stop
95. 3:14and nothing happens. Previously, on the
96. 3:18topic of urban renewal, you were very
97. 3:20pessimistic. I really don’t have the
98. 3:22lifespan to play that game. Hmm.
99. 3:25>> I don’t even know how long I’d have
100. 3:26to wait.
101. 3:28>> So, suppose I buy an apartment facing a
102. 3:31main road now. It’s close to the MRT
103. 3:34and faces a main road. Then the area
104. 3:36behind it, together with the apartment,
105. 3:39exceeds 3,000 square meters; I think
106. 3:41everyone would target this.
107. 3:43>> Right.
108. 3:44>> I’d put it in my daughter’s name,
109. 3:45rent it out for 50 years, and just wait
110. 3:47—I’d definitely wait it out.
111. 3:49>> Hmm.
112. 3:50>> I’d have to wait for you, but those
113. 3:51explosive profits? No, I wouldn’t do
114. 3:54that.
115. 3:55>> The thing is, I don’t know when it
116. 3:57would pay off. I can’t wait, but
117. 4:00I’d just buy it in my daughter’s
118. 4:02name and keep renting it out.
119. 4:04>> Hmm.
120. 4:04>> Maybe I’ll wait until that day comes,
121. 4:06just like that.
122. 4:07>> Will you be waiting until your
123. 4:08grandchildren’s time?
124. 4:09>> No, definitely not. I’m sure I
125. 4:11wouldn’t.
126. 4:13>> You say you might wait until your
127. 4:14daughter’s time, but won’t that
128. 4:16timeframe keep dragging on? Or, in
129. 4:18terms of Taipei City, are there many
130. 4:20such large plots available? I’m
131. 4:22curious.
132. 4:23>> Uh, very few.
133. 4:24>> Very few, right? Very few.
134. 4:25>> Because it has to be near the MRT.
135. 4:27>> That’s right.
136. 4:28>> Or near the riverbank, and the site
137. 4:30needs to be 3,000 square meters.
138. 4:33>> 3,000 square meters.
139. 4:35>> Everyone, I might have calculated that
140. 4:37this site is 4,000 square meters and
141. 4:39planned it perfectly.
142. 4:41>> Hmm.
143. 4:41>> But then someone comes along with an
144. 4:43old building renovation, and the
145. 4:44integrity of the site is ruined.
146. 4:47>> There’s 100 ping here, they want to
147. 4:49build, then another one over there, and
148. 4:51the site is finished. I originally
149. 4:54thought about the 50-year plan for this
150. 4:56site. That would definitely be a sure
151. 4:58thing. But with pieces cut off here and
152. 5:01there, and the conditions they’re
153. 5:02giving you today—one of the
154. 5:04conditions is 3,000 square meters.
155. 5:06>> Hmm.
156. 5:07>> Small alleys don’t have 3,000 square
157. 5:09meters.
158. 5:09>> The whole area doesn't have it.
159. 5:11>> Hmm.
160. 5:11>> It’s very difficult. So what must it
161. 5:13be like? It must face Zhongxiao East
162. 5:15Road. Hmm.
163. 5:17>> And for an apartment, this side and
164. 5:19that side—the area between Hulin
165. 5:21Street and Zhongxiao East Road, near
166. 5:23Yongchun Street—it must have depth.
167. 5:26You have to combine the front and the
168. 5:28back to have enough.
169. 5:29>> If you’re willing but the people in
170. 5:31the back aren't, there’s nothing you
171. 5:32can do.
172. 5:32>> Right.
173. 5:33>> Not enough depth.
174. 5:35>> When I first saw this policy incentive,
175. 5:38I wondered who it would benefit: the
176. 5:40owners of these old apartments, or the
177. 5:42developers?
178. 5:43>> Floor area ratio increase. Hmm.
179. 5:46>> You can build more. It benefits the
180. 5:48landowners. Who are the landowners? The
181. 5:50existing apartment owners.
182. 5:52>> the owners, so it's not the developer,
183. 5:54because you have these conditions.
184. 5:56Originally, if I change to 300%, then
185. 5:59Farglory comes, Shin Kong comes,
186. 6:01everyone comes, bidding based on these
187. 6:04terms, so the latter developer doesn't
188. 6:06get the benefit.
189. 6:08>> Mm. And the residents become—my
190. 6:12original urban renewal was a 30-ping
191. 6:15apartment, and I get a 30-ping new unit
192. 6:17, so it's a one-to-one exchange.
193. 6:23>> Everyone, what does "increasing by 1.33
194. 6:27" mean? If you are included in a
195. 6:29large-scale renewal, your 30-ping
196. 6:31apartment, you'll get 30 ping of new
197. 6:33housing, you'll get 30 ping of indoor
198. 6:35area. Oh, meaning the actual
199. 6:37>> 30-ping indoor area of the apartment is
200. 6:39exchanged for
201. 6:41>> a 30-ping indoor area new house.
202. 6:44>> Now that this news is out, will
203. 6:46apartment owners start to feel that
204. 6:48their property is becoming more
205. 6:50valuable, like gold? Should they rush
206. 6:55to sell while there's buzz, or just
207. 6:56hold on until the day of urban renewal?
208. 7:01The first thing is, only those who meet
209. 7:03the large-scale criteria benefit. First
210. 7:06, you must have 3,000 square meters.
211. 7:09Second, you need to be near the MRT or
212. 7:11face an open space,
213. 7:13>> that is, permanent open land.
214. 7:15>> Both conditions must be met. If your
215. 7:17neighbors have already renewed and your
216. 7:19base is only 500 square meters total,
217. 7:21you can't exchange it back; there's no
218. 7:23point in even discussing it. It really
219. 7:26won't benefit you. You are in a
220. 7:28large-scale renewal area, but you
221. 7:30aren't next to a river; that's what you
222. 7:32need to rely on.
223. 7:34>> Yes.
224. 7:35>> So, you have to analyze where your
225. 7:37house is located.
226. 7:39>> Mm.
227. 7:40>> You need this plot to be 4,000 square
228. 7:42meters. How about that? If one urban
229. 7:44renewal comes, then another, you have
230. 7:47nothing left. So, for those stuck in,
231. 7:49say, six-meter narrow alleys, or like
232. 7:51you just said, where the base can't be
233. 7:53assembled and there are many scattered
234. 7:56ones nearby that have already renewed,
235. 7:58your land, which could have been part
236. 8:00of a large-scale project, now can only
237. 8:02be a medium or small-scale one.
238. 8:05>> Let's put it this way. You have all
239. 8:07apartments here, it looks possible.
240. 8:09>> Right. You take the nearest corner to
241. 8:13the MRT station entrance and exit,
242. 8:15measure the straight-line distance on
243. 8:18Google—is it over 400 meters?
244. 8:21>> Mm.
245. 8:22>> If it's over 400 meters, and the
246. 8:24closest point to the base is 600 meters
247. 8:26, don't even ask, it's a no.
248. 8:28>> Oh.
249. 8:29>> Straight-line distance.
250. 8:31>> As for how close, there is no official
251. 8:33meter count yet. Before, Taipei City's
252. 8:36incentive was 20%...
253. 8:38>> High-speed rail, Taiwan rail,
254. 8:40>> Mm.
255. 8:42>> Yeah, so now you wouldn't say that all
256. 8:44old apartments in Taipei are asking for
257. 8:46sky-high prices, because only a few
258. 8:47might be valuable.
259. 8:49>> Right, only a few.
260. 8:50>> First, they must be large, and second,
261. 8:52they must be nearby.
262. 8:53>> Hmm, so now, do you think this news
263. 8:55will stimulate the market for Taipei
264. 8:57apartments?
265. 8:58>> It will.
266. 8:59>> It will.
267. 8:59>> For those few, it will.
268. 9:01>> Which few will?
269. 9:02>> Big gains, big gains.
270. 9:03>> Wow, big gains?
271. 9:04>> Yes, big gains.
272. 9:05>> It's really that big of a gain?
273. 9:07>> Oh, I see. You mean the future
274. 9:08significance is just too...
275. 9:10>> When you multiply it by 1.33,
276. 9:12>> Mm.
277. 9:14>> Its value will multiply by about 2, or
278. 9:17over 1.7.
279. 9:21>> This policy is a plus for a small
280. 9:23number of holders, only.
281. 9:25>> But for most apartments, they will
282. 9:27likely remain old, or even have no
283. 9:29chance for urban renewal.
284. 9:30>> There is still a chance.
285. 9:31>> There is still a chance.
286. 9:33>> Mm. I can't wait for a major result.
287. 9:35You have to wait for Songshan Airport
288. 9:37to change, because of the height
289. 9:38restrictions.
290. 9:39>> Mm.
291. 9:41>> It starts descending from Linkou, then
292. 9:43Taishan. Wugu and Sanchong start
293. 9:45descending, then Minzu East Road, then
294. 9:48they need to land.
295. 9:49>> Mm.
296. 9:50>> If the landing isn't successful during
297. 9:52the approach, they pull up, head to
298. 9:54Xizhi, and circle back.
299. 9:56>> Mm. So the whole area is restricted
300. 10:01around Minzu East Road and that
301. 10:02Songshan Street area.
302. 10:06>> If I bought land on Songshan Street, I
303. 10:08could only build 7 floors.
304. 10:10>> It's very close to the airport, very
305. 10:12restricted. Ah, Sanchong is a bit
306. 10:14further from the airport, so it can be
307. 10:16taller. But the flight path to Xizhi
308. 10:20and back, and the path over Zhongxiao
309. 10:22Road, are all restricted. Just look at
310. 10:26the old office buildings on Zhongxiao
311. 10:28East Road and Nanjing East Road; that's
312. 10:30why they are like that.
313. 10:34>> Then, if that changes, I'll go buy
314. 10:36floor area, and I could build 26 or 28
315. 10:39floors once the restricted zone is
316. 10:41lifted.
317. 10:43>> Mm.
318. 10:45>> Moving the airport to Taoyuan, that
319. 10:47should be around 2030, right? Once that
320. 10:52opens in 2030, the annual passenger
321. 10:55volume there will be over 6 million.
322. 10:58The airport moves there, and Songshan
323. 11:00Airport can be removed. Then there will
324. 11:04be new land, new parks, new building
325. 11:07sites, and new scientific buildings.
326. 11:10Putting it that way, I understand now.
327. 11:12That's why they are pushing for this
328. 11:14Songshan Airport relocation. Besides
329. 11:17the AI park, what they really want is
330. 11:19to lower the height restrictions near
331. 11:21Songshan Airport, so many buildings can
332. 11:24undergo urban renewal. That's the only
333. 11:26way to do it.
334. 11:27>> Whether it's floor area transfer or
335. 11:29something else, changing the
336. 11:30restriction from 500%to 300%is what
337. 11:32makes it meaningful.
338. 11:33>> Exactly.
339. 11:35>> Otherwise, I'm restricted by height, so
340. 11:37where is the biggest profit? Zhongshan
341. 11:39and Beito.
342. 11:40>> Yeah.
343. 11:41>> If you're in Muzha or near the airport,
344. 11:43it has nothing to do with you.
345. 11:44>> It's irrelevant to you. If you're in
346. 11:46Beitou, it's also irrelevant. It only
347. 11:48matters for the section from Zhongxiao
348. 11:50East Road to Neihu.
349. 11:51>> Oh, Songshan District, Zhongshan
350. 11:53District, Neihu District, why?
351. 11:56>> Why is Neihu included here? Neihu is
352. 11:58like that because they built highways
353. 12:00and dug underground railroads, but it's
354. 12:02not enough—just the Huxin North Road
355. 12:04underpass is huge. Yeah.
356. 12:06>> And then there's...
357. 12:08>> Minquan Bridge.
358. 12:09>> Minquan Bridge, then over to the one on
359. 12:11Zhongshan North Road, there are only
360. 12:13three routes to Taipei City.
361. 12:15>> Yeah.
362. 12:15>> But if you open up the airport, Dunhua
363. 12:17North Road could also have one.
364. 12:20Zhuangbei Road, Jianguo North Road,
365. 12:22none of them would need to pass through
366. 12:24the airport, because there are
367. 12:25connecting lines underneath the airport
368. 12:27.
369. 12:29>> Yeah.
370. 12:29>> So if the airport is removed, and
371. 12:31high-rise prices are allowed, Neihu
372. 12:33wouldn't have any traffic jams. The
373. 12:35property value would shoot up.
374. 12:37>> If you qualify for that large-scale
375. 12:38redevelopment, as an apartment owner,
376. 12:40you'll make a fortune in the future.
377. 12:41Whether it's for yourself or for your
378. 12:43children, that house will be like a
379. 12:45gold mine. But I want to ask, for those
380. 12:47who want to buy an apartment, has your
381. 12:49stance changed, Brother Shuai?
382. 12:51>> For Neihu, I wouldn't recommend
383. 12:52large-scale redevelopment.
384. 12:54>> Right.
385. 12:54>> For Neihu, if I buy it for large-scale
386. 12:56redevelopment, I'd just be waiting in
387. 12:58the alley. It's not easy to manage.
388. 13:00>> So you wouldn't recommend it.
389. 13:02>> No, no, because urban renewal is
390. 13:04actually really difficult. Regarding
391. 13:08large-scale redevelopment, I hope
392. 13:10there's a supporting plan for it.
393. 13:14>> For example, if I designate an area of
394. 13:164,000 pings, you need a 4,000-
395. 13:18square-meter project that meets my
396. 13:213,000-square-meter requirement; you
397. 13:23can't just have a 1,500 one here. A
398. 13:271,500-ping, 1,500-ping urban renewal
399. 13:29project—if it's over 1,000 square
400. 13:32meters, you can do urban renewal.
401. 13:35>> But if you are within my designated
402. 13:36large-scale redevelopment area, I won't
403. 13:38allow you to do that; you must follow
404. 13:40the rules, and I will wait for this
405. 13:41time until you are forbidden from
406. 13:43applying for individual renewal.
407. 13:46>> Cannot apply.
408. 13:47>> Urban renewal.
409. 13:48>> Only large-scale redevelopment.
410. 13:51>> Otherwise, you're stuck, so this
411. 13:53supporting policy becomes...
412. 13:55>> After it passes, it must be implemented
413. 13:58after three years. During these three
414. 14:00years, the area is designated, and from
415. 14:02then on, there's no individual renewal
416. 14:04—it's mandatory large-scale
417. 14:05redevelopment.
418. 14:06>> It's a bit like the concept of planning
419. 14:08a rezoned area.
420. 14:09>> Exactly, nothing else can be done.
421. 14:11>> Yeah.
422. 14:11>> And you can't just do anything, you can
423. 14:13only build one building.
424. 14:14>> Right.
425. 14:14>> It's one developer, one building.
426. 14:16>> Yeah.
427. 14:17>> No second one. It should be
428. 14:22government-led urban renewal; don't
429. 14:23leave it to the common people, and
430. 14:25don't wait until it's done for everyone
431. 14:27to discuss renovating the buildings.
432. 14:32Then hire your own contractors or
433. 14:34construction firms.
434. 14:37>> Come now, however much you get, the
435. 14:39government must do more.
436. 14:41>> For instance, are apartment prices in
437. 14:43Taipei City recently still maintaining
438. 14:45a trend of slow or slight decline?
439. 14:47>> A slight decline, constantly dropping.
440. 14:49>> They are still falling recently.
441. 14:50>> Because, honestly, they just can't go
442. 14:52up.
443. 14:52>> Mm.
444. 14:53>> I'm 70 years old; if it's an apartment,
445. 14:55I truly won't buy it.
446. 14:57>> Mm.
447. 14:58>> If I end up in a wheelchair, I won't be
448. 15:00able to get down. I completely avoid
449. 15:02apartments. Even the first floor of an
450. 15:04apartment isn't easy to sell.
451. 15:07>> I'm quite curious, if this policy were
452. 15:09to come out—assuming it really takes
453. 15:11shape—how long would it take to see
454. 15:12the gap in prices?
455. 15:14>> I'll answer you now: 100%of
456. 15:16fourth-floor apartments are held by
457. 15:18investors, 50%of third-floor apartments
458. 15:20are investors, 20%of second-floor
459. 15:22apartments are investors, and the first
460. 15:24floor is tough too, because of the
461. 15:26hassle.
462. 15:27>> Mm. Aside from their intrinsic value,
463. 15:29apartments have urban renewal value,
464. 15:31but that value requires "N" years to
465. 15:33realize.
466. 15:33>> Investors are best at waiting "N" years
467. 15:35, which homeowners can't do, so the
468. 15:37investor ratio in apartments is rising.
469. 15:40The recent decline is because it's
470. 15:42unfriendly to investors—what with the
471. 15:44third-home mortgage restrictions.
472. 15:47>> Investors don't just have a few million
473. 15:49, let's assume they have 10 million. Mm
474. 15:51, if you only have 2 million in cash,
475. 15:53you aren't an investor; you don't even
476. 15:55have the down payment. So, I'll assume
477. 15:58they have 10 million. Since September
478. 16:0117, 2024. Investors are very smart; no
479. 16:03one is risking money on apartments,
480. 16:05they're all buying TSMC stock.
481. 16:07Apartment prices are falling because
482. 16:08investors have all gone to play with
483. 16:10TSMC.
484. 16:11>> Suppose six months from now, things are
485. 16:13still stagnant. They will come back to
486. 16:15my favorite, real estate. "I'll buy a
487. 16:17fifth-floor apartment if it's cheap."
488. 16:19Yes, yes, it's possible.
489. 16:21>> Mm.
490. 16:22>> So the sharp drop in apartments over
491. 16:23the last two years is because the
492. 16:25investors are gone. First, the height
493. 16:27and zoning issues, and second, the
494. 16:29building age is too high—people just
495. 16:31can't wait. Mm, I see, alright. So,
496. 16:34hearing it this way, the number of
497. 16:36urban renewal cases initiated due to
498. 16:38these major zoning changes is still
499. 16:40limited, or we'll have to wait to see
500. 16:41what supporting measures the Taipei
501. 16:43City government introduces before this
502. 16:45large area can slowly take on the
503. 16:47appearance of urban renewal.
504. 16:49>> Before buying, you should go ask a
505. 16:51fortune teller.
506. 16:52>> See if your luck is good; sometimes you
507. 16:54just can't wait that long. I understand
508. 16:56. As Brother Shuai said, waiting for it
509. 16:57yourself is like daydreaming, but if
510. 16:59you have children, large-scale urban
511. 17:00renewal is more suitable for the
512. 17:02younger generation to wait for.
513. 17:03>> I buy it for my daughter to wait.
514. 17:05>> Thank you so much to our handsome guest
515. 17:06today and thank you all for watching.
516. 17:08Remember to join us again same time
517. 17:09next week, bye-bye.
518. 17:10>> Bye-bye. Hello everyone, I am anchor
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537. 17:54Night Enhanced versions have updated
538. 17:56packaging, but the contents remain the
539. 17:58same.