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FRANCE IS DIRECTLY ATTACKING RUSSIA IN RESPONSE TO HYBRID ATTACKS - w/ Prof. Robert Pape — Transcript

by Mario Nawfal · 10,078 words · 1,435 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:01Yeah. Hi, Mario.
0:04>> The professor is here.
0:06>> Uh, and with the Mario, [laughter]
0:10>> how are you?
0:11>> I'm doing great. So, I've had some
0:13in-person substacks in Brussels,
0:16Washington, a bunch of places since
0:17we've last uh talked and uh they all
0:20talk about Mario.
0:23[laughter]
0:25>> Did you enjoy them?
0:27>> Oh my gosh. Oh my gosh. Yeah, they're uh
0:29incred my my my my wife said I'm I'm
0:32lucky I came home. [laughter]
0:35>> That's so nice. It's so nice to hear.
0:36You deserve it's just it's it's really
0:38nice to hear. I'm glad uh I'm glad
0:40you're doing all this and I hope you
0:41continue it. I respect your energy. Um
0:45professor like
0:47you know there's days like today a lot
0:49of people ask me like Mary how do you do
0:50this on a daily basis and not feel you
0:53know just exhausted from all the bad
0:55news and have nightmares and all that?
0:57and I've kind of grown immune to it. But
0:59then there are days like today when I
1:01look at everything I'm like, you know,
1:03the escalation trap, the concept of it
1:06is pretty scary. If you told me 10 years
1:08ago we'll have trench warfare in Europe,
1:11we'll have a regional war in the Middle
1:13East, we'll have talks about nukes, I'd
1:15be like, you're freaking stupid. But now
1:19today, France, according to Lemon,
1:22France said that they are responding
1:24militarily to Russia. We don't know how
1:26they didn't give details. That's a
1:28report by Lemon to Russia's hybrid
1:30attacks. It's direct military action.
1:33And today um today you've got Turkey
1:35saying implying that they'll be join
1:37they'll be defending Saudi. Pakistan
1:39hinted two days ago the defense minister
1:41they'll defend Saudi against the
1:42Houthis. All while people's talking
1:45about Iran striking the US before the
1:47midterms to ensure Trump loses. And many
1:50people worry Trump will strike Iran
1:52again after the midterms. So, I look at
1:54all this and although I'd let you decide
1:56where to start it, professor, but I just
1:57thought I'd just kind of share this.
1:59It's
2:01it's pretty scary. It's pretty scary.
2:03>> It's absolutely scary. So, I I a week
2:05ago I was uh two hours at the EU
2:08Parliament with the MPs. Um and they
2:12they are they don't want to show it as
2:14as much as they can uh can but they but
2:17scary is exactly right. So, so Mario,
2:20what's happened uh is the shock wave has
2:24hit hard.
2:26It has hit hard. Uh and the shock wave
2:30is right on schedule uh almost to the
2:33week. So, we've been talking about this.
2:36Uh my escalation trap um has been laying
2:39out the monthby-month expectations. We
2:42can go over this, but um the shock wave
2:45of what you are seeing is now um
2:49striking the world and now they know
2:50it's real. And right outside my door I
2:52have $5 gas literally and just three
2:56weeks ago it was 409 gas. So the shock
3:00wave has hit the world. Um and what's
3:03happening and there's uh you've done
3:04great job. So, as I've been traveling uh
3:07around in the last um uh 10 days, um
3:10I've been in uh more cities uh than I
3:13can count and only a couple days in
3:15Chicago. And it is um you've done just a
3:18fantastic job uh all the different
3:20podcasts, Brandon too, of covering this
3:23better than anybody else. Um let me just
3:26kind of cut into this though a little
3:28bit differently. Uh what you are a
3:30little bit bigger picture then we can go
3:32into some of the details. Um what you
3:34are seeing is uh the rise of Iran as an
3:38oil hegeimon. Uh now it's not fully
3:40consolidated yet but this is what it it
3:44looks like for the rise of Iran as an
3:46oil hegeimon. And as you know we've been
3:49talking about this for months. We've
3:51been talking for months how Iran um
3:54started on July 7th to take the
3:57initiative that this is not just simply
4:00waiting for Trump to bomb that Iran has
4:03taken the initiative and what they're
4:05taking the initiative to do is to become
4:09a true oil hegeimon in the Persian Gulf.
4:14That is uh by the way um the this is uh
4:19the goal that that that has been
4:21shattered here by the United States is
4:24not just simply the Trump
4:25administration's goal. This isn't just
4:27simply a defeat. This isn't just simply
4:29a oil shock that we're going through. Um
4:33this is uh the oil hegeimon that has uh
4:37the United States has had a goal not to
4:39allow to have happen since the 1970s.
4:42So we need to understand um that for
4:46decades multiple administrations in the
4:49United States uh countries around the
4:51world um we have um wanted to avoid
4:56prevent etc. one country, whether it's
4:59the Soviet Union in the 1970s, Iraq um
5:03in 1990, or now Iran, we've wanted to
5:08prevent one country from having a noose
5:12to essentially lock up the energy
5:14resources uh around the Persian Gulf.
5:17And it's not just narrowly hormuz as
5:20we've been trying to explain. It's also
5:22the sphere of influence so that there's
5:25no other bypasses out. So that the uh
5:30this whole idea that you've heard Besson
5:32talk about and others talk about for
5:33months on your
5:36on your not Besson on your show but
5:37others on your show that somehow
5:38there'll be pie passes and so forth. Um
5:41well Iran's been been focusing on this I
5:44think really since uh June 15th or even
5:47the end of May. So this is why I've been
5:50telling you theou would break down. Well
5:52what you are seeing is the actual rise
5:55of Iran as a oil oil hedge mine. Now
5:58it's not just Iran itself. Iran has
6:00allies. Uh Iran has um um u Iranbacked
6:05militias in Iraq. Iran has the Houthis.
6:09Um, and what you are seeing is playing
6:12out what really started on July 7th with
6:16the attack on the Ever Loverly. So, if
6:18you go back and um uh and and maybe if
6:22you want me to, I can try to show you a
6:24map with all the attacks, you will see
6:26starting on July 7th, that is when the
6:31new strategy by Iran really kicked in.
6:35And what Iran has been doing is taking
6:38advantage of its uh inherently
6:42structurally determined leverage. Uh and
6:46that leverage is coming from the fact
6:48the um strategic petroleum reserve has a
6:51known clock. It is it's all predictable
6:54has a known clock. Um and it is uh
6:58running down. And I I don't know if on
7:01your show because I haven't seen you do
7:03this on your show, but your folks could
7:05probably call it up. You could call up
7:07the um draw downs week by week and you
7:11could even just start in, you know, July
7:131st or August 1 by the US SP uh SPR and
7:16you'll see it's basically in the last
7:18oops, excuse me, it's last um it's
7:21basically down to ver to nothing in uh
7:24since September 1. And that was always
7:27known because the problem is as you know
7:30uh structural uh you you can only draw
7:33that down so much without risking the
7:35walls caving in because of the water
7:37intering with the salt dot dot dot. Um
7:40but this isn't just a technical issue.
7:42This is a geopolitical issue. This is
7:44changing geopolitics
7:46in Europe. It's changing um uh what's
7:50happening right here in the United
7:52States with our midterms. by the way, uh
7:54it's changing what's happening with
7:57China's growing leverage. Uh and that is
8:00all a result of Iran rising as the oil
8:07hegeimon with global impact. Um this is
8:12what I worried about on April 4th in the
8:15New York Times oped, Iran rising as the
8:17fourth center of world power. Um, and
8:20what you're seeing is step by step by
8:23step, uh, Iran is pursuing that power
8:28and it has real impact. It has real
8:31impact and this isn't over yet, Mario.
8:37M
8:38>> so I'm glad to go into all that detail,
8:40but I just want to give you a chance to
8:41process that because you know you and I
8:43have gone back and forth here and I know
8:45you've moved your position basically
8:48you're you're you're a little bit closer
8:50to mine than you were a while ago. Um
8:52but this is really pretty important and
8:55it's going to have pretty important
8:56impact here on the UAE itself. So um um
9:00the uh uh the fact is as Iran has um
9:06started this um initiative, this
9:09offensive initiative to gain more
9:12control over uh the oil and the energy
9:17in the entire region. Uh what you're
9:20seeing is they have deliberately worked
9:23with the Houthis and as you know they've
9:26actually gone um and IRGC have actually
9:29in July physically gone to the Houthis
9:33to work with them. There are reports
9:35they have gone to the Iranbacked
9:37militias. Now maybe they're not super
9:39tight control. I don't want to paint
9:40this as um you know a topdown supertight
9:44machine. That's not quite right. Um but
9:47what you are seeing is that Iran in that
9:50uh security access that the IRGC started
9:54to talk about at the end of May, it's
9:56actually now a reality. It's not a full
9:59reality yet. Uh but it is a reality and
10:03it's sending shock waves around the
10:07world uh in the um let's just talk about
10:11in the Gulf or in even just the Yemen
10:14area here. Um so as you just said um now
10:19that uh the Houthis have control of um
10:23uh Saudi oil exports essentially uh and
10:26then the East West pipeline has been
10:28damaged and we don't know how long it
10:30will come it will be before it's
10:32repaired and then of course it could be
10:34attacked immediately again. So this
10:36could be out for many many months. Um
10:38and so what that is doing is it is
10:41setting the stage for um the spiral part
10:45of the escalation trap uh involving
10:48Saudi Arabia, the Houthis and now this
10:51week both Pakistan and Turkey uh have
10:54basically gone back what on what they
10:56said just a week ago. Remember the
10:58pre-existing condition clause? Well,
11:01that we they've decided to override
11:03their own clause in their own Mecca
11:04accord uh to promise physical um support
11:10for uh Saudi Arabia. Now, why might you
11:13do that? Um, so, uh, I don't know if
11:16your folks can call up a map of Shia,
11:20uh, and Shia, uh, populations here in
11:23the Persian Gulf, but you will see that
11:26just above Yemen to the northwest, just
11:30above Yemen is another pool of Shia.
11:35And so if you um are Saudi Arabia and
11:39you're worried about there being a
11:42further encroachment
11:45uh then it makes perfect sense. You
11:48would worry about the spillover of
11:50what's already happened in uh Yemen,
11:54what's already happened from Mocha down
11:56through U Pum etc etc could actually go
12:00further north. Ah there there you go. Uh
12:03and so you see that uh blue you see the
12:05blue there on the other side of the line
12:09between Yemen and Saudi Arabia um
12:12immediately to the north and west of uh
12:17Yeaman.
12:18Well, I think that what probably
12:21happened [laughter] is the Saudis had
12:24some phone calls with uh with Anchora
12:27and with Islamabad. Uh, and by the way,
12:30I just was asked to give a big video to
12:32Islamabad, their military, which I I
12:34couldn't even go to Islamabad. I was
12:36traveling so much on Thursday. So, just
12:38a few days ago, they showed a video
12:40presentation I gave them. Uh, but
12:42basically what you are seeing here is
12:45that uh as the conflict now has spread
12:50to essentially the Red Sea area, uh this
12:54is not a contained conflict. Uh Mario,
12:58this is the spiral part in that part in
13:00that corner of the escalation trap
13:03because now you have Saudi Arabia quite
13:06reasonably concerned that it may be the
13:10case that the Houthis may become more
13:14emboldened to gain more control going
13:18further north. And how far north? It's
13:21of course hard to know. Um, and this is
13:24why I think um you could it probably
13:27made sense for Islamabad and Turkey to
13:29start talking about um helping Saudi
13:32Arabia because the Mecca accord is
13:34fundamentally a defensive pact. Mario,
13:38it's not it's a it's it's a it's uh one
13:42for all. If one of those three states,
13:44Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan are
13:47attacked.
13:48uh it's not an offensive pact, meaning
13:51that if one side goes on the offensive,
13:53all three go on the offensive as well.
13:55So, I wouldn't at all be surprised if
13:58you're going to start to see some
14:00concern about that escalation right in
14:03that corner. And this is where that pact
14:06is going to the rubber is going to
14:07really hit the road. Um, and if that war
14:12uh escalates in that area, that is not
14:15just some, you know, minor escalation
14:18and so forth. Notice what that means is
14:20since it's right on the Red Sea, again,
14:22that is going to further complicate
14:26any Saudi exports out of the Red Sea for
14:30months and months. So, this is um uh
14:35this is what to expect in that area. Uh,
14:39and if you keep that, if you can go back
14:41to the Shia map. Can we go back to the
14:42Shia map, please? Because I want to zoom
14:45out a little bit to show you a little
14:47bit more about what that Shia population
14:50map. So, notice
14:52um notice that there is a significant
14:55amount of blue meaning Shia in Saudi
14:59Arabia itself.
15:02Notice that
15:04>> on the border with Yemen. Yeah.
15:06>> Uh, pardon. No, I mean further. I mean
15:08by the Gulf Coast,
15:09>> northeast
15:10>> up Gulf by the Gulf Coast. And notice
15:13Baharrain is 65% Shia. Uh notice you
15:17have pockets of Shia here. Of course,
15:20you have it in in in Iraq. uh here. I'm
15:23not sure the map's fully capturing the
15:26uh the Shia populations in the part
15:28around Bazra very well, but the bottom
15:31line is you even though uh the
15:36Arabian Peninsula and this region is uh
15:40overwhelmingly Sunni, you have quite a
15:43few pockets of Shia here. And that's
15:48pretty important because if you end up
15:51with a a wider war between Saudi Arabia
15:55and Shia in Yemen and now you're
15:57bringing in uh more Sunnis uh here with
16:00Anchora and Pakistan, you can start to
16:04see fmenting unrest and instability in
16:07Saudi Arabia itself. Um, and we don't
16:12know, I don't know the detailed
16:14networks, the Kindred networks and so
16:16forth that are going to exist, but that
16:20is just primed for more trouble down the
16:25road. Uh now also your map doesn't quite
16:28show it but there is also um a half moon
16:32of Shia in the UAE near the UAE pipeline
16:39that goes to Fyra.
16:41Now, that's important, Mario, because
16:45right now, Fujyra is one of the few
16:49little bits left where oil is getting
16:52out because Fuji is that port on the on
16:56the coast of uh uh then and it comes out
16:59through the Gulf of Oman. Uh comes out
17:02through that pipeline with Saudi Arabia
17:04that's supposed to be a bypass. Well,
17:06you can start to see that it would not
17:10be it might come as a shock to the world
17:12because that's about something like two
17:14million barrels of oil a day coming out
17:17of Fujyra. Maybe not quite but but
17:19something like that. Uh well, if that
17:22were to shut down either because the
17:25pipeline is attacked or because the
17:28ports are attacked uh in a more
17:30systematic way, well then the price of
17:33oil is going up a lot uh here because
17:35we're already as as a lot of your your
17:38economist guests have been saying right
17:40at the asmatic top here. So even losing
17:43another million barrels of oil a day,
17:46this is going to have dramatic shock
17:48effects now on um prices uh going
17:52forward. And you can see that it's not
17:55that um um Yeah. So sorry, we're Yeah,
17:59we just don't have the it's hard to find
18:01the best maps at the time.
18:03>> You can move Yeah, I found this one
18:04quickly. If you zoom in on the UAE on
18:06this one, I don't know if you can zoom
18:06in
18:08here with a pipeline in Fujiro. Really?
18:10So what we a UAE map showing the
18:13pipeline that is taking the oil to um
18:17>> uh out of the UAE uh here and it's
18:21basically you see where the star on the
18:22UAE is Abu Dhabi. If you just draw a
18:26direct line another inch and a half
18:29right there under the D of Abu Dhabi
18:32exactly that's where
18:34>> to the D. Exactly.
18:35>> Yeah. you
18:37and what you're saying this is and you
18:38can see there's Shiites uh the the dark
18:41green is the Shiite populations and
18:42you're saying that there's Shiite
18:43population in Yemen across the the Babel
18:46Mandibra and the other alternatives to
18:48the straight of Hamus in Abu Dhabi
18:50there's Shia populations there in Abu
18:51Dhabi in those there those pipel
18:55what you are seeing is uh I'm not trying
18:59to tell you there's one and only one
19:01detailed scenario because I know you
19:03like to to see I'm telling you there are
19:06multiple options here and pathways where
19:12Fujiro oil will um uh could shut down in
19:16October. Um, and that would hardly be
19:20that would not be a surprise to me
19:21because as I've been explaining this
19:25offensive strategy by Iran to become an
19:30oil hegeimon
19:32is also it's it's the timing of it is
19:36related to the draw down on the SPR
19:40uh which is now hitting the point that
19:42it's so low. Apparently, the Trump
19:44administration's getting nervous because
19:45they haven't put in much oil at all out
19:47in the last uh since September 1. So,
19:49they're getting nervous here. And from
19:52what I can tell, there are no engineers
19:54willing to sign on the bottom line that
19:56those cave walls will not fall down.
19:58There's 60 caverns. You got to get that
20:01when you get the oil out, you got to
20:02flood it with water. Water and salt
20:06create problems. And so, um, I it's not
20:09so much the engineers are predicting, I
20:12think, exactly how low you can go,
20:14Mario. It's that I don't think they are
20:16willing to certify it's okay. And I
20:20think that's making uh because if you
20:22have the walls collapse in a cavern,
20:25that goes down and crushes the
20:27machinery, you see. So, you you you have
20:29re it's not just damage. It it will
20:31screw up. Um, and that will, you know,
20:34you talk about a shock. this this would
20:36be a shock cubed if you have one of
20:39those 60 caverns collapse. Um and so
20:42that's why I think it's probably the
20:43case the Trump administration is getting
20:45cold feet about continuing to draw it
20:48down. The energy, you know, secretary
20:50remember months ago said, "Oh yeah,
20:51we're going to go all the way down to
20:5275." No, I don't I I I think it's just
20:54very very very risky and especially
20:57between now and the midterms because if
21:00that were to happen then I suspect the
21:02price of gas outside my which went up by
21:05a buck a gallon in three weeks. I think
21:08you could see it go up uh another buck a
21:11gallon and that that would of course uh
21:14be you know horrendous in terms of what
21:17the midterms might might look like. So I
21:20think what you are seeing is Iran is uh
21:24exerting spreading its wings. It's
21:26becoming an oil hegeimon and effectively
21:30what that means is that Iran is
21:33dictating uh the price of oil. Now not
21:36alone I understand about Russia and the
21:39refineries but it's dictating the price
21:41of oil rather uh heavily. It's the key
21:44IV here. Uh independent variable, I
21:47mean, and it can get a lot worse in
21:51October as we go forward. And from
21:54Iran's perspective, they may well want
21:56it to get a lot worse. Now, it's
21:59affecting other parts of the world as
22:01well. So, this this shock wave isn't
22:05just affecting um the uh the UAE
22:10instability. Remember the last time I
22:12think we were on, we were talking about
22:14the true possibilities of real
22:15instability in the Gulf countries. Well,
22:18notice that's now not just the
22:19hypothetical professor P. You're
22:21actually talking about that on multiple
22:23of your shows and I think it's a it's
22:26it's good to talk about it because I
22:28think it's a real thing. Uh well, if we
22:30look at um what this means for Europe,
22:33so I was just in at the uh European
22:35Parliament. um they they have the the uh
22:40the war began and then you saw that the
22:43first thing that happened was Iran
22:45survived. Well, then what happened is
22:47you saw the shattering of American
22:51invincibility. It shattered very little
22:55confidence now in the invincibility of
22:58American military power. Uh we're having
23:00a hard enough time defending our own
23:02ships, let alone anybody else uh here
23:05with that power. Well, the Europeans are
23:07seeing that absolutely front and center
23:10and they are facing the most difficult
23:13guns versus butter problem that any of
23:16those MPs I think have ever had in their
23:18lifetimes and probably their f their
23:21parents' lifetimes. And it's because if
23:25uh they do nothing and they do not
23:27support Ukraine, I don't mean with
23:29troops, I mean economically support
23:31Ukraine, uh fulfill the pledges that
23:34they made at the NATO summit in July,
23:36which also was around July 7th. Mel July
23:397th will go down as a critical critical
23:41date here uh when the histories are
23:43written. Well, the um Europeans are
23:47facing a real problem because their gas
23:50prices are higher than Americans
23:52already. They're they're I I don't know
23:53if it's quite double, but it is way up
23:56there already. And they're heading into
23:59a winter where they don't have the
24:02normal reserves they usually have with
24:04energy going into their winner. and
24:07they're facing a bind then at um where
24:11they are facing again the most wicked
24:13guns versus butter problem that I think
24:16they have faced in again the MP's
24:19lifetime and I think their parents
24:20lifetime and this is uh what I'm I'm
24:24seeing is not joy in supporting Ukraine
24:28that's not what I would say at all but
24:30what I'm seeing is that they they're
24:33looking and they're realizing that
24:36America's was not there to bail him out.
24:39And it's not just American will. It's
24:41not just, well, if only we had a
24:42different president than Trump, uh, uh,
24:45we could be bailed out. I think they're
24:47seeing the shattering of American
24:49invincibility.
24:51And that is changing things
24:53dramatically. And it's changing
24:56dramatically their um uh their their
25:00almost all the discussion. The two-hour
25:02discussion I had with the MPs and the
25:04European Parliament, it was entitled
25:08uh US, Israel, and the Iran war. Well,
25:10we talked about that for 10 minutes. And
25:12then we spent the whole time talking
25:14about Ukraine. Uh well, I mean, that's a
25:16little bit of an exaggeration, but this
25:18was really what was on their minds. And
25:20I'm not at all surprised um that you're
25:23seeing uh the French trying to um step
25:27into effectively what's a power vacuum
25:29when you shattered American
25:31invincibility. You have a power vacuum
25:34in the in the in the Gulf and in the
25:37Arabian Peninsula. You have a power
25:40vacuum essentially in Europe. Is Putin
25:43going to fill that power vacuum? Um and
25:46that's not a happy thought for these
25:48these folks. Uh, and it's not because
25:51they they they're they wanna uh, you
25:54know, have higher defense spending right
25:55now or anything like that. Um, it's
25:58because they're seeing the real security
26:00consequences of not doing it. And they
26:02also know their MPs. I mean, they were
26:04explaining to me their politicians,
26:05their their publics are just
26:07apoplelectic about what's happening with
26:09the economic costs here. Um, but at the
26:11same time, uh, this could actually get
26:14worse for Europe and they're trying to
26:16figure out how to navigate that, uh,
26:19that issue with Ukraine. Now, then
26:21there's the third area I I want to get
26:23on make sure we get on the table. Um,
26:26and and this this this shock wave uh,
26:29now that it's really hit hard, Mario,
26:32this is having gigantic uh, seismic
26:36reverberations around the world. So,
26:39President Xi is about to show up here in
26:41Washington. I'm not at all surprised
26:43he's still coming to Washington and he's
26:45bringing his version of the Tech Bros
26:48with him. He's bringing the BYD um
26:52executives. Uh that's a electric the
26:54biggest electric car manufacturing
26:57company in the world. I just want to
26:58point out five million cars a year. Just
27:01to put make it clear that's bigger than
27:04the entire American car market. Uh
27:06that's one company. Uh Xiaomé uh is
27:10effectively the Porsche level uh EV. Um
27:15and I know a lot about that because I
27:17think as I mentioned to you a year ago,
27:19June June 2025, I spent two weeks
27:22touring China's Advanced Industries on
27:25the Shop floor at the Xiaomé uh facility
27:28which is just right outside of Beijing
27:30at BYD which is in Sen. Uh, and so I'm
27:34I'm not just, you know, ripping this off
27:36the internet or something. I mean, this
27:38is uh, and what what is interest what
27:40what I think is is really important to
27:42understand is she's leverage is growing.
27:47Now, why would she's leverage be
27:49growing? Well, he's not because he's
27:52attacked anybody. He hasn't invaded a
27:54country. Not because he bombed anybody.
27:56He didn't bomb anybody. And not because
27:58he tariffed anybody, just to be clear.
28:01Okay. She's leverage is growing because
28:05we started the summer with three uh
28:09buffers of the uh oil shock that has
28:13been delayed and now it's really hit.
28:15One was the SPR which is now running so
28:18low that Americans are nervous about
28:21going lower. We may but it's very very
28:23uh risky. The second was the East West
28:26pipeline which was 5 million barrels a
28:28day. That's gone. Um, and the third
28:32buffer, China. The third buffer, China.
28:36After the May summit between she and
28:39Trump, that's when uh China reduced its
28:43imports of oil from 12 million barrels a
28:46day to 7 million. And we don't know
28:48still what the quidd proquo is. We all
28:50assume it must be Taiwan, but we don't
28:52really know. What we know is that she
28:55usually doesn't put out charity very
28:58much. Uh so I don't think this is a
29:00charitable donation on the part of she.
29:02Um and so what she is doing is he's
29:05coming into Washington with the wind at
29:09his back because the idea that we are
29:13going to um just you know ignore the
29:17growing leverage now of the Chinese and
29:21I'm not surprised he's bringing his um
29:23and so what do I think is is is on offer
29:27uh next week effectively at a you know
29:30geostrategic level is will Trump trade
29:33tomorrow for today? Meaning, will he
29:39give advantages to the already
29:42advantaged AI industries in China? And I
29:46don't know if you recall my my couple
29:49sentences. I think China's like 20 years
29:52ahead of us, not just the way we're
29:54seeing it here. And I explain all that
29:57uh here for you. But it's it's that
29:59we're missing 90% of what's happening in
30:02China because nobody goes to China since
30:04CO. Uh not in a big way. There's hardly
30:07any media there since CO. There's hardly
30:09any politicians there. The only American
30:12politician of note who went uh to China
30:15since CO um was Gavin Newsome for two
30:18days at BYD in Sen. And I know because
30:22uh we talked about it on my trip there,
30:24but nobody else has really been there.
30:26Uh and so what you are what we're
30:28missing is we're not really seeing
30:31China's advance. We're just just
30:33sticking our head in the sand. We're
30:34just not seeing it. And she is coming
30:37and he's going to be looking for, I
30:39think, advantages there. Now, will will
30:42Trump um do things like open the
30:45American market to Chinese e uh BYD uh
30:50and Xiaomé uh EVs? And those EVs I have
30:55you seen some of those BYD and Xiaomé
30:58EVs? Um so I've been in them. They
31:01actually put me in. I've been in them.
31:03Man, these are awesome. These are not
31:05Teslas. Okay. [laughter]
31:07This is Tesla is like a tercel. All
31:10right. The I mean a a very low level.
31:12Well, it's not that's not quite fair to
31:14Elon Musk, but it's this is way beyond
31:18um Tesla and their batteries. They
31:21charge 250 kilometers in um uh less than
31:2610 minutes. Um so they've they've
31:29improved their their charging
31:31capabilities. Uh this is why the BYD has
31:34beating the pants off of the EVs in
31:37Europe. Um, and if we start to open the
31:40door here,
31:42uh, because we want to get China's EV
31:46technology, think about that, the
31:48reversal of roles here, uh, here. Oh my
31:50goodness gracious, this this opens up,
31:53um, uh, you can just see and and the
31:55final point I want to make about she is
31:57or China is they are picking up gains
32:02just by showing up.
32:05They they they're not exerting
32:07themselves. They're not coercing
32:09anybody. They are one of the few pillars
32:13of stability in an increasingly
32:18rocky world and people are just going to
32:22them for stability. You're seeing Mo uh
32:25Modi uh going and and and being nice to
32:28China and Putin. Uh and and one of the
32:32big reasons is because Modi uh buys 37%
32:35or about that 40% of Russian oil. Um and
32:39so you what you are seeing is as Iran
32:43has risen and and it's not fully there
32:46yet, but it is now right in the in the
32:48thick of it becoming an oil hegeimon. Um
32:52you are what you are seeing is this is
32:56fundamentally shifting geopolitics
32:59and if you had asked anybody in
33:01Washington from either party would India
33:04start to um you know move closer not
33:08just to Russia but to China
33:11that that you see right away um what the
33:15consequences are of Iran becoming the
33:18fourth center of world power. Uh there's
33:22a a a point I want to make um about
33:25October and then I'm going to stop a
33:27little bit, let you digest, okay?
33:29Because I know I'm throwing a lot out at
33:30you, but I also
33:31>> oil one is really Brandon. Sorry,
33:34professor. The the oil one is really
33:35important. The leverage. So, one of the
33:37leverage levers that the US had was
33:39energy through the petro dollar, the
33:42deal with the Gulf and of course being a
33:44big producer themselves, Canada, other
33:46allies, the Venezuela success. it was up
33:48and up is on the up and up and gaining
33:50leverage over China. The complete
33:52opposite happened in Iran. Not only did
33:54Iran um assert itself in the region, win
33:58against the US mean it's and again Iran
34:00and Chinese ally, it also had a certain
34:03level of dependence on China as the
34:06country that was supporting it through
34:07the war more than Russia. And on top of
34:09it, it controls not only the oil out of
34:11the out of its own country that the US
34:13was not able to capture. It controls the
34:15oil coming out of the straight home and
34:17it controls the oil coming out of the
34:18beel mandibra and is still there to
34:21control the oil as well as through Iraq
34:23coming out of the Mediterranean. So
34:25>> you have it. Yes.
34:26>> The complete opposite of what the US
34:28would have liked to happen. The complete
34:30opposite happened. Venezuela is the
34:32perfect example of an incredible
34:34strategic success. Pure purely talking
34:37about strategy here. Iran is literally
34:39the perfect example of a pure of a
34:42complete strategic failure.
34:44Exactly. And and and I'll come back to
34:46the escalation trap concept in a in a
34:49second, but what we could well face in
34:53October, uh Mario, and I put a post out
34:56on the escalation trap last week on this
34:58called uh Iran's uh October surprise.
35:03Is Iran moving toward uh nuclear tests?
35:08Now, it may not actually fully test. it
35:11may just withdraw from the NPT or make
35:13more and more noises about withdrawing
35:16from the NPT. But what you see is the
35:19logical uh realist next set of steps
35:23here. there there's sort of a a
35:27reasonable sequence that you would
35:29expect which is what the modeling was
35:31showing for 20 years is that then this
35:35would be the circumstance once Iran had
35:38gained more consolidation
35:41temporarily
35:43of this uh u oil hegemony and its sphere
35:47of influence. there would be a real
35:49issue is how long can it really hold it?
35:52And one big
35:54uh way to hold it longer and maybe for
35:58the rest of our lifetimes would be if
36:00Iran develops nuclear weapons and that
36:03if it were to happen in October would be
36:07um the timing of that and even if it's
36:09not a nuclear test and so forth just
36:11withdrawing from the NPT uh would
36:13certainly I think be enough. What this
36:16means for the midterms,
36:18Mario, is wrecking the Trump presidency
36:22permanently, irreversibly.
36:26Because now it's not just your initial
36:28goals didn't work. It's look at the
36:31complete reversal
36:34of American power, American position in
36:38the world and Iran heading to become the
36:41oil hegeimon capping it off closer and
36:45closer to and if not crossing it the
36:48threshold to nuclear weapons that takes
36:52all of the uh ideas that Trump has been
36:56talking about including just in the last
36:57week uh here and shatters shatters them.
37:00It just shatters them. And you put that
37:03together with the rising price of oil
37:07and what you see is not just a blue um
37:10uh blue control that is Democratic
37:12control of the House and Democratic
37:14control of the Senate. Uh but after that
37:17point in January when the new Congress
37:20is seated, why is why are those
37:24Republicans sticking with Donald Trump?
37:28Why are they sticking with him? Now,
37:30there'll be half a MAGA, half of the
37:32Republicans, maybe twothirds that won't
37:34abandon him. Um, but oh my goodness
37:38gracious here. This is this for Trump.
37:41He is heading into a not just a couple
37:45years of uh subpoena power by the
37:47Democrats uh here, but the issue with
37:52the Republicans in Congress is going to
37:55become a bigger and bigger issue. So,
37:59these midterms that we're heading into,
38:02we're already going to be uh the most
38:05contentious in our lifetimes. are
38:07already going to be uh very fraught
38:10because of all the internal issues
38:12inside of the United States. The Iran
38:14war has now supercharged those even more
38:18and it's because of two things. Number
38:22one, it's the rising uh costs here on
38:26Americans. Americans uh have been have
38:28shown they're willing to fight forever
38:30wars as long as it doesn't cost them
38:31anything. Well, this is the complete
38:33opposite of that. And then number two,
38:36um the shattering of not just American
38:40military invincibility, but Trump
38:42invincibility.
38:44Oh my goodness gracious. So So these are
38:48these are the pressures for the
38:50escalation trap. We've talked about
38:52them. Uh I've explained to you that this
38:55is this is why Trump is going to be
38:57under increasing pressure here to
38:59escalate to show he can do something.
39:03pickaxe mountain obviously and we can
39:05talk about the details there and the
39:07possibilities there. Uh but this is the
39:11pressure for um and and it's not
39:14necessarily the case that it must be in
39:16October that Trump escalates but he is
39:18he's really going to be under enormous
39:20pressure if only to hold on to MAGA.
39:28Well, talking about the shattering or
39:31the invincibility of the US, um I'm a
39:34lot more worried about Ukraine Europe
39:36than than Iran just because of the
39:37interceptor problem for the US that they
39:39have no alternative for. I'm still
39:41worried a lot more worried than I was.
39:43But on the Ukrainian,
39:45>> I know you've given me a lot of reasons
39:47to worry. That's for sure. And treat
39:50Pari by the way got a lot more worried
39:51last week and he's someone I speak to
39:53regularly and and we've always been
39:55aligned in our thoughts but he got
39:56extremely worried last week.
39:58>> Yeah, he sees. So I know Tida very well.
40:01He was at my events. I did a big event
40:03at bus boys and poets and
40:04>> maybe you're the I blame you. I blame
40:07you for turning him so worried. You made
40:08him worried professor. [laughter]
40:11>> He is a very smart cookie. I just got to
40:14tell you is a very smart guy.
40:17>> Very smart. Yeah. Um, so I'm just seeing
40:20some story.
40:21>> I'm sorry. Go ahead.
40:22>> Yeah.
40:23>> Uh, secret last effort to secure
40:25normalization with Saudi. Okay. Um,
40:27>> so you were going to go back Russia
40:29Ukraine.
40:29>> Russia Ukraine. The France.
40:31>> The report from Lemon that France is
40:34already conducting military action
40:36against Russia. It's already started.
40:38Um, it doesn't get the same press as the
40:41Iran war. People are pretty exhausted
40:42with the Ukraine war. But that comes
40:44that was today that this was reported.
40:47And also today, and they said it's
40:49already happening, so that the military
40:51action by the French is already
40:52happening against Russia, but they
40:53didn't elaborate on what that includes.
40:56Today, Latvia revealed it has
40:57intelligence that Russia is preparing um
41:00to attack it to test NATO 5 or they say
41:03to tear NATO's article 5. Lithuania and
41:06Poland then put out a report saying
41:08their intelligence, they have similar
41:09intelligence as Latafia. And we know
41:12that um the head of the CIA Ratcliffe
41:15was in Latvia before he went to Moscow a
41:18few weeks ago with the with with the
41:21perception of the US a true perception
41:22with the US weaker than or NATO weaker
41:24than it's ever been with the US showing
41:27its weaknesses that they've been there
41:28for a while. Um and considering the
41:30depleted munitions etc. doesn't that
41:32putin in a position where he can and add
41:35on top of it Trump and his comments
41:36about NATO and article 5. Isn't that the
41:39perfect time for for Putin not to
41:41conduct a direct military attack, a
41:44conventional attack against NATO, but
41:46some sort of significant hybrid attack,
41:48not the small ones we've seen in the
41:49last few months. Yeah.
41:50>> To really to really break
41:53>> certainly he's he's going to be more
41:54tempted than he has been in many years
41:56to do this. So Putin is in his own
41:59escalation trap, Mario, where he started
42:02this war and he had the advantage here
42:05and he notice when he started in
42:07February 2022, he didn't just attack um
42:11from the east or the Donbos. He did a
42:14four-pronged attack where he came down
42:17and encircled Kev. And you could see
42:21that he his plan was that he was going
42:24to control the territory of Ukraine from
42:29UK all the way to the Donbos. Uh that is
42:33about 60% of the territory of the
42:36country. And he may not have wanted to
42:39take the western districts. I'm not
42:41saying he wanted to physically put
42:42troops in the western districts, but
42:44that is what it means to control a
42:47country to to actually control Ukraine.
42:50You control the vast majority of the
42:52territory. You control the capital city.
42:55That way you can install whoever you
42:57want to install as your puppet
42:59government. Um, you know, Putin is well
43:03aware of these kinds of dynamics. Um,
43:05and then the Ukrainians stiffened. They
43:08were too strong. They did not collapse.
43:12Uh I didn't think they were going to
43:13collapse, by the way, at the time. Um
43:15there's a whole reason for that. I told
43:17our folks in Congress, they came out
43:19just after two days after the uh uh
43:22Russian attack. There were members of
43:24Congress, I don't want to quite say who
43:26they were because they were coming out
43:26of classified briefings where our
43:29intelligence, British intelligence,
43:32European intelligence was saying that um
43:35Keefe was going to fall in just a matter
43:38of a week or two. They were going to
43:39offer Zalinski a way out with his
43:42family. And I said I thought that was
43:44possibility, but one in 10 chance that
43:47would happen. I said more than likely it
43:49was going to be the opposite of that.
43:51that the Ukrainian what's being missed
43:53here and I didn't see the classified
43:55intelligence but what's I thought was
43:57being missed was underrating the
44:00strength of the Ukrainian military and
44:03the willingness of not everybody in
44:05Ukraine but you only need 40% of a
44:08country to want to fight to really fight
44:10hard um here to uh stand up and that's
44:14exactly what has happened now Putin
44:17um has been then in an escalation trap
44:19ever since for four and and a half
44:21years. And I think the blunder, the big
44:24blunder that Putin made um and there's
44:29multiple levels of blunder here, okay?
44:32But the big blunder for Putin was
44:34thinking that as long as you could break
44:38NATO, meaning the US commitment to NATO
44:44and to Europe, if you could break that,
44:46and of course, Donald Trump is the
44:48perfect tool to break that. If you could
44:51break that, then Europe would never
44:53congeal. It would never get its act
44:55together in any way. It would just kind
44:58of have a collective action problem and
44:59they kind of, you know, just uh, you
45:01know, the rat scaring off the ship. Uh,
45:03and then he would have an easy time even
45:06if the initial uh, plan didn't work. The
45:09backup would be a war of attrition. And
45:11this would work because you're breaking
45:13NATO. Meaning when I say break NATO, I
45:16mean the and this is what you just said,
45:18article five, where article five is
45:21about an American military commander
45:25commanding all of the NATO troops. I
45:29have thought NATO in that form has been
45:32dead for a long time
45:37and this war has put the nails in the
45:40coffins of that. But that doesn't I've
45:45the Europeans would just simply collapse
45:48because realism 101. It's just realism
45:52101. When a group of countries face a
45:55threat, uh you get counterbalancing.
45:58It's lumpy. It's slow. Uh some countries
46:02are out in front of the others. But the
46:04fact of the matter is there's a hundreds
46:06of years of of data on this.
46:08Counterbalancing actually occurs. Uh,
46:12and I think that's what you're seeing
46:14slowly slowly by the Europeans and the
46:17fact that they can't count on the United
46:18States is making them have to
46:21counterbalance as Europeans,
46:24not as Europeans hitching their wagon to
46:27America. Uh, counterbalancing as
46:30Europeans more and more. And then that
46:32is going to be lumpy. And right now, um,
46:34there's some countries like France, it
46:36look like they want to get out ahead on
46:38this. I'm sure there's going to be
46:40others, you know, maybe Spain that
46:41aren't going to want to do that.
46:43There'll be parts of other countries,
46:44the AFD in Germany is a perfect example
46:47that won't want to. Uh, but what you are
46:50seeing is that counterbalancing it's
46:52never like um, you know, flipping a
46:54light switch. Okay, it's not that way.
46:57It's lumpy. It's slow. Um and what
47:01you're seeing is slowly slowly there are
47:04certain more than signs but there slowly
47:07slowly there is counterbalancing and
47:10it's important and the reason I say this
47:12is the gigantic Putin blunder
47:15is because um what that what the EU
47:19represents I don't mean the Americans I
47:22mean just the EU
47:24uh economically the EU is eight times
47:28economically more powerful than Russia
47:32eight times. Now, it would take a lot to
47:35u mobilize that to move that into
47:38military and to other support for
47:41Ukraine. I'm not really saying that I
47:43think it's likely there'll be EU troops
47:45on the front lines here in eastern
47:47Ukraine. I'm not not saying that at all.
47:49But what I'm saying is uh that um Putin
47:54has by starting this preventive war, we
47:57started a preventive war and notice
47:58everybody wants to counterbalance
48:00against America and Israel. Putin
48:02started a preventive war and uh and and
48:06the Europeans are slowly slowly starting
48:08to counterbalance. Uh and by the way,
48:11look at don't keep your eye on the
48:13polls. the polls are likely going to be
48:16there um wanting to counterbalance
48:19because they're next. Well, maybe the
48:22Balkans are literally next, but they're
48:24they're they're not far away from the
48:26front lines here. So, I think what
48:28you're what what Putin did is a blunder
48:31is he is causing the counterbalancing
48:35that could truly damage the security of
48:38Russia and the power position of Russia.
48:42and uh it just will take time. Uh but
48:45the French, what you're describing is
48:47not at all a surprise to me. Um and it
48:50is just the lumpiness of
48:52counterbalancing. And yes, it puts Putin
48:54in the escalation trap. Does he take a
48:58step to preemptively do something? Does
49:00he not? Does he cut a deal? Um uh and so
49:04forth. But that's the nature of these
49:05escalation traps. Uh, and I think if he
49:08attacks, if Putin were to attack, I
49:11don't think he's going to break the
49:12cohesion, the emerging, I should say,
49:15cohesion of European countries. I think
49:18he's going to it's going to speed it up.
49:20And I think that um the last thing that
49:23Putin needs right now is um a more
49:28congealed
49:29Europe. And so he is running the same
49:33kind of risks that other major powers
49:35have run when they have launched
49:37preventive wars. Preventive wars, Mario.
49:40Uh I I teach graduate classes on on
49:42preventive wars. My next book is going
49:44to be on this. Preventive wars are
49:46history's great loser. Great loser. uh
49:50since 1870.
49:52There's there's there's almost there's
49:53only really one case of a preventive war
49:56that that worked out and that's a minor
49:58one here with Russia and Japan that most
50:00people don't even know about. Okay. So,
50:03you you look at all the history and all
50:05the canonical cases. 1870 is a bright
50:08watershed line. Before 1870, yeah,
50:12there's a there's a number of these
50:14preventive wars that kind of work. But
50:15starting in 1870 and there are real
50:18reasons for this. uh preventive wars
50:21haven't lost every single time, but um
50:24they are one they are they are history's
50:26big loser when it comes to war and um
50:31the American you know Trump
50:33administration is finding this out and
50:36uh Putin I think is finding this out
50:38>> and a preventive war that's to a war to
50:40prevent another country from gaining
50:41more power or becoming a threat in the
50:44future.
50:45>> That's exactly right. It's not a war
50:47where the other side mobilized and
50:50started a uh sort of a two division
50:53attack and you preempt it. A preventive
50:55war is you're you're worried the other
50:59side might get stronger in an aggregate
51:02sense. And so you go early thinking if
51:06you go early, you'll nip it in the bud
51:09and you'll basically break that
51:11aggregate that trajectory of aggregate
51:14growth apart. And what you're saying
51:16about Russia, if if they attack NATO, um
51:20that's more likely to lead to a rally
51:22around the flag rather than lead to
51:24capitulation. Similar to what we saw
51:25with the US attack on the Iranian
51:27government, didn't lead to regime
51:28change. It led to people on the streets
51:30calling for revenge.
51:32>> That that's right. And and I think that
51:34um there are 27 countries in the EU
51:36power. I know I was just there. There
51:37are 7 M20 MPs, 27 countries. I'm not
51:41telling you all 27 are going to going to
51:43be happy at Cypress. So for example is
51:46one of the 20 they're they're going to
51:47be hiding. They're going to be looking
51:49to for ducking as much as possible here.
51:52Uh so this is not about the institution
51:55of the EU or the institution of NATO.
52:00This is more fundamental than that. This
52:03is um is Europe going to fight or
52:08flight? Are they going to allow Putin to
52:11gain enormous power in Ukraine? And and
52:14even though Putin is, you know, not
52:16talking power talk, this is what he's
52:18really doing. He's trying to gain power
52:21in Ukraine. Um and are and if he gains
52:24power in Ukraine, there's just a real
52:28pattern in world history. Rising power
52:31leads to rising ambition. And it doesn't
52:34matter whether the leader even says he
52:37wants to have that ambition. So I don't
52:40I don't I'm I don't spend a lot of time
52:42with this analysis of Putin's rhetoric
52:44or Lava's rhetoric. Oh no, that's all
52:47defensive. They don't really want Keev.
52:49They don't. No, this isn't realism. The
52:52realists don't pay attention to the
52:54rhetoric of a leader. They pay attention
52:56to power and balances of power. And I'm
52:59saying Putin blundered. He's I'm saying
53:02in other words, he's a bad realist
53:05because his blunder is misunderstanding
53:09power. And that is the most the biggest
53:12thing you're supposed to do as a realist
53:13is understand power. And I I think that
53:16he is if he if he goes forward and he
53:19were to attack so for example let's say
53:21he were to attack not um into Western
53:25Europe but just into say Poland because
53:27there's been a discussion of that leaked
53:30intelligence about some possibility of
53:32that.
53:32>> Yeah. Well, the polls are a population
53:34of 40 million, Mario, and um Ukraine is
53:41probably about 34 million, something
53:44like that right now. So, if you bring in
53:48if you attack Poland, Poland might
53:51actually send troops to Ukraine. So,
53:53Putin will double his manpower problem
53:56if he if he's having a hard enough time
53:58cracking the front lines with Ukraine.
54:01uh here you attack Poland. Well, he's
54:04he's increasing his problem at the front
54:08lines here.
54:08>> Well, that's why Latvia would probably
54:10be a better option if he's considering
54:12this. Uh
54:13>> well, yes, but Latia will just simply be
54:16viewed as a stepping stone here. Um
54:19because uh this is uh this is just
54:21realism 101. Again, uh the idea that um
54:26states have uh truly limited aims and
54:29you can trust their leaders because they
54:32say they only want a little bit here.
54:34Well, realists just have never that's
54:36just not realism. That's called
54:38idealism. That that's actually been
54:40called the opposite of realism. So, so
54:43the um um it's it's not really exactly
54:47about whether it's it's whether he
54:50attacks at all into this because he's
54:52puncturing a threshold and that's how uh
54:55the Europeans I don't mean the NATO
54:58countries because again my view is NATO
55:00is DOA okay NATO is dead all right and
55:04when I define NATO as article five where
55:07when there's an attack and NATO uh says
55:10we're going to fight as NATO it's an
55:12American American military commander,
55:14usually sackure, uh, who has the
55:17authority in article 5 to command
55:22the other NATO countries. And I think
55:25the idea after the Iran war that the
55:28Europeans will let an um General Kaine
55:32or uh Sakure or somebody like Admiral
55:37Cooper direct
55:40their country's militaries I don't
55:43>> but you think NATO in terms of US
55:45involve NATO is alive
55:47>> but do you think US would get involved
55:49if a NATO country was attacked by
55:51Russia?
55:52No, I think I think Trump is
55:54fundamentally right here when he says uh
55:57Ukraine's a NATO a European problem.
56:00Europe's closer to it. America's got
56:02oceans. Um I think that that is a that
56:05that's a I'm not telling you Trump's um
56:07you know, right on everything, so don't
56:09get me wrong, but I think when Trump
56:11says that, um that that is any ordinary
56:14realist would would would probably agree
56:16with that because the fact of the matter
56:18is um that's that's true. It's the
56:21proximity the proximity of the threat.
56:24Uh Europe has the aggregate resources.
56:27The problem is they don't have the
56:29resources. Um and so the issue here is
56:32will Europe uh uh counterbalance will
56:36they congeal? And with um for 35 years,
56:41America's carried uh not all the water
56:44uh here and I think it's exaggerated
56:46that the Europeans haven't played but
56:48nonetheless uh America has been the
56:51security blanket. America has basically
56:54been there in many parts of the world in
56:57Asia in the Middle East. This is true
56:59with the frontline Gulf States uh with
57:02uh with Europe where it's America who's
57:04been the security blanket. So all those
57:06other states have drawn down their
57:09militaries. Why? Because uh of the
57:13confidence in American
57:16you call it escalation dominance,
57:18military superiority do whatever word
57:20you want to use. Um and now that's
57:23shattered. So those those countries all
57:26of them this includes Saudi Arabia, this
57:29includes France, this is going to
57:31include South Korea. Um, all of those
57:34countries are having to think now
57:36seriously for the first time in their
57:38lifetimes
57:40about a post America world. What does
57:42that actually look like for real? And
57:45are they going to accept coming under
57:48the thumb of others? And realism says
57:52only kicking and scratching. They they
57:54realists say um if you have the
57:56aggregate wherewithal uh here you will
58:00eventually counterbalance as lumpy and
58:02slowly as it is. It's only the teenytiny
58:05states. Uh again um I don't mean to pick
58:08on on on Cyprus. I'm just just picking
58:10that because I just happen to have been
58:11at the EU Parliament. But um I'm just
58:14saying the smaller states they don't
58:16have the aggregate power. All they can
58:18do is get smooshed by one side or the
58:20other. So uh this is this is where the
58:22UAE is. UAE is in real trouble because
58:25uh they're ultimately not that big. Um
58:28and they haven't built a military to
58:30actually stand up to Iran. They have a
58:33military. Um but this has been a
58:35military that at most is a supportive
58:37arm of the United States. It's not an
58:41independent arm thinking about dealing
58:45with the balance of power issues um in
58:47the Gulf on its own. And that too that
58:50is true of the European militaries. They
58:52have been thought of as supportive arms.
58:55That's true of the Japanese military, a
58:57supportive arm. Um, now they have to
59:01become whether they like it or not. It's
59:05an independent force.
59:07>> And maybe that will mean, you know,
59:09different kinds of alliances that will
59:10form. And I'm not saying NATO the piece
59:13of paper will go away. I'm not saying a
59:15building is going to go away. But this
59:17is superructure. This is not important.
59:19These are not the important things. when
59:21you focus on power, you see, and that's
59:24what I'm focusing on is is the actual
59:26power dynamics. And if you looked at
59:28Putin, by the way, before 2022, and you
59:31just looked at Putin versus Ukraine,
59:35Russia versus Ukraine, Russia was nine
59:38times more powerful than Ukraine
59:42economically. Um, and so I can see Putin
59:46take thinking, oh, this preventive war,
59:49well, okay, this the two-week plan to
59:51take Keev may not work, but if all else
59:53fails, there's a war of attrition. I'll
59:56come out of this fine. This this is just
59:58the same mistake as Wilhham and Germany
1:00:01going to war in World War I. Now, there
1:00:03are people who defend Germany's position
1:00:05and say, well, they got within six weeks
1:00:07of taking Paris and so it wasn't so bad.
1:00:10It was a close call. uh here I don't buy
1:00:13that. I think that what's happening is
1:00:16when you are a country and you attack
1:00:19into another country, it is quite
1:00:22reasonable to expect counterbalancing.
1:00:25That is what that's one of the I don't
1:00:27call an iron law is a little too strong
1:00:29but one of the big patterns in history
1:00:32is uh counterbalancing not to verbal
1:00:36threats but to actual militaries
1:00:39crossing borders that tends to provoke
1:00:42um uh counterbalancing.
1:00:46>> Agree.
1:00:47>> Well, professor um I'm glad we finally
1:00:49got to speak about the Ukraine war for
1:00:51the first time. come up and wait. We've
1:00:53always been
1:00:53>> Well, and I know I'm running against the
1:00:55grain. Talk about counterbalancing.
1:00:57On my YouTube channel, uh here I put out
1:01:00a series of po of of videos on Putin's
1:01:03blunder. All kinds of details about it.
1:01:06Oh my goodness gracious. You talk about
1:01:08going out going the blob. Oh my goodness
1:01:11gracious. You know, we talk about the
1:01:13blob in Washington. [laughter] There's
1:01:15the blob on social media. They don't
1:01:17want to hear it. They just don't want to
1:01:19hear it. Well, I'm sorry. I'm being
1:01:20consistent. It's just as I think the
1:01:23Iran war was a bad uh war because it's a
1:01:25preventative war. It led to an
1:01:27escalation trap. I see the same thing
1:01:29with Russia and Ukraine. And I see it as
1:01:33just being consistent. I'm not picking
1:01:35on Putin. I'm not pro Putin. I'm not a
1:01:38Russia file. I'm not a Russia phobe. I'm
1:01:40not an Iranian file. I'm not an Iranian
1:01:42phobe. I'm just looking at the balances
1:01:44of power and just being consistent just
1:01:47as I've been teaching. Exactly, Mario.
1:01:50For years in my class, what you're
1:01:52hearing is my analysis of the Russia
1:01:54Ukraine war that I've been laying out
1:01:56for four and a half solid years in my
1:02:00class on strategy at the University of
1:02:03Chicago.
1:02:05>> No, I really appreciate the analysis.
1:02:07Um, it's always a pleasure to have you
1:02:08on the show. Thank you.
1:02:09>> Well, thank you for having me. I really
1:02:11just I so appreciate you and my goodness
1:02:13gracious, the the fandom of Mario. You
1:02:17do you have do you have Mario swag?
1:02:20[laughter]
1:02:20>> I'm just telling you the the sub you
1:02:22want to just go to the Substack audience
1:02:24of certainly my my 80,000. I think you
1:02:27would you would sell they probably buy
1:02:30your t-shirt because you're just better
1:02:31looking too. They're going to buy your
1:02:33stuff. Okay.
1:02:34>> I made a I made a hat. Um we're going to
1:02:37I made a hat. One is called Mario and
1:02:38one is called Wario cuz Brandon calls
1:02:40himself Wario because he's always
1:02:42talking about war war is next World War
1:02:44II. So, we're gonna when it comes in, I
1:02:47told my team to send it in. We're going
1:02:48to wear it. We We're not gonna sell
1:02:49them.
1:02:49>> No, you could have a bunch of mic. You
1:02:51could have the Mario, the dynamic duo,
1:02:53you and Brandon. [laughter] I mean, I'm
1:02:55just I'm just saying I I in the
1:02:56in-person substacks you that I've been
1:02:59holding, you you really see this pouring
1:03:01out and you It's because you're the only
1:03:03one apparently in the world that
1:03:05actually seems to know what the news is.
1:03:07[laughter]
1:03:09>> I appreciate the kind words, professor.
1:03:11Thank you so much.
1:03:11>> Thank you for having me, Mario.
1:03:13>> Always a pleasure. Thank you. Um, all
1:03:15right guys, I'll be going live any
1:03:17minute with Malcolm Nance. I told him, I
1:03:18messaged him. I'm like, "Look, can you
1:03:19jump on? I want to talk about what
1:03:21France has just said, the news from
1:03:22France about France attacking Russia and
1:03:24the reports from multiple countries
1:03:26about Russia preparing an attack on
1:03:27Latvia, either a direct conventional
1:03:30attack or a hybrid attack. Um, so
1:03:32Malcolm will be live any minute to
1:03:34discuss these developments today. See
1:03:35you soon. Bye.

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