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Five Forces Driving TCG Prices Higher...For Now (One Piece, Pokemon and More) — Transcript

by One Piece of Insight · 6,439 words · 910 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00Hello and welcome to OnePiece4Insight.
0:03In today's video, we're going to be
0:04looking at five forces that are driving
0:07TCG prices higher. Over the last couple
0:09weeks, I've been spending more time
0:10thinking about like the fundamentals of
0:13TCG, the fundamentals of collecting, the
0:15fundamentals of market. Like, what makes
0:17something have value and how can we use
0:20that to understand like
0:22are TCGs going to be the thing of the
0:25future, right? So, the next few videos,
0:27I'm going to be looking at some of these
0:28bigger questions, but for today, we're
0:30going to start by focusing on these five
0:32forces that I think are fundamental to
0:34how prices move in the TCG markets. So,
0:36with that, as always, this is intended
0:38to be interesting, informative, but not
0:41financial advice. Let's jump right in.
0:43So, the first thing I want to talk about
0:44is this concept from psychology called
0:46anchoring. And what anchoring is is
0:47essentially taking the first piece of
0:49information we have about something, and
0:51then that becomes sort of our set point
0:53that we evaluate everything else against
0:54from. So, in this case, we have this
0:56Zoro uh top eight promo. It's a Japanese
0:59flagship battle prize card. I think this
1:01card is super, super awesome. I have
1:03this listing here from eBay for $653.80.
1:08Just curious. Before I say anything
1:10else, what do you think? Is this a good
1:11price? Is this a bad price? How much do
1:13you think this card should be worth?
1:16Well, what if I told you that I found
1:17another listing that's only $350? Does
1:20that seem like a good deal now since you
1:22just saw that it was, you know, $600
1:25somewhere else?
1:27What if I show you a sold listing for
1:28$182? Like, do you think that's the best
1:31we're going to do, or do you think
1:32there's a lower price, right? And like,
1:35if what you're feeling in the back of
1:37your mind is a little bit of being like,
1:38"Man, $182 for that card seems pretty
1:40cheap." Like, that is the result of
1:43anchoring, right? That is the result of
1:44you seeing higher prices and thus
1:46assuming that this as a lower price is a
1:50fundamentally good value. And so, the
1:51point is is that like this is one of the
1:54reasons I struggle with buying like a
1:55lot of Japanese promo cards. It's like
1:57really hard to nail down like what the
1:59price of them should be. But even for
2:01the cards where we have more
2:02information, we still fall victim to
2:05this anchoring. So, to give you another
2:07example, let's take this Luffy from the
2:09gift collection 2023, right? So,
2:12TCGPlayer market price was $244.13.
2:16So, if I were to ask you, how much do
2:18you think this card is worth? I feel
2:20like most people would say $244, right?
2:23If I went to a vendor and said, "Hey,
2:25how much are you selling this card at?"
2:26Like, that would probably be the
2:28benchmark that they were looking at. But
2:29the truth is, if you look at the 3-month
2:31snapshot, this card has ranged
2:33everywhere from $37.50
2:35all the way up to $448.88.
2:39So, like, if you saw this listed for
2:42$90, you'd probably think that was a
2:44great deal, right? Because we inherently
2:45trust the value that TCGPlayer tells us
2:48something is worth. But the reality is
2:50often a lot more complicated, right? And
2:52so, like, to give a specific example of
2:54how like I have messed this up in the
2:56past, I know I've talked about this
2:58before, so I I won't take too long, but
3:00when I bought the Santa Chopper, I paid
3:01like five bucks, right? It went up to
3:03like 60 bucks. That felt ridiculous to
3:05me because my anchor point was four or
3:07five dollars, right? So, I sold it. And
3:10then, when it didn't go down after that,
3:12my anchor point like reset, and I was
3:14seeing it consistently sell for like
3:16$70.
3:17And so, I realized like maybe this is
3:19actually a $70 card, right? Maybe I was
3:21just slow to react in realizing that it
3:24actually should have been that. And so,
3:25I bought it back. And then it shot up to
3:27like $250,
3:29and I was like, "This is way too
3:30expensive for this card, because this
3:32should be a $70 card, right?" And I
3:35didn't believe the price change. And
3:36lots of other people didn't either,
3:37which is why you saw the price go down
3:39to $150.
3:40But what we've seen since then is that
3:42like the price has somewhat stabilized.
3:45It seems that like new people are coming
3:48in, discovering this card for the first
3:49time, seeing that it's a $300 card, and
3:52saying, "Yeah, that makes sense to me."
3:54And like, this is a big part of how
3:56cards grow long-term because when the
3:58game grows, when the market expands,
4:01they're going to come in and look at
4:02these things for the first time and see
4:04that they cost $300. They're not going
4:06to be able to tell from the, you know,
4:08TCGPlayer uh that 2 years ago this was a
4:11$5 card cuz TCGPlayer only has a 1-year
4:13limit. And so like, I think the big
4:15takeaways here are number one,
4:17the first price we see often sticks with
4:19us. And this can make us either
4:21overvalue something or undervalue
4:22something relative to how it's changed.
4:25Anchoring also makes us slow to react,
4:26and this goes both ways, right? Like I
4:28said with the Chopper, I was slow to
4:29react to the reality that like people
4:31valued it more than its current price.
4:33Also at the same time, if something used
4:35to be expensive and the price goes down,
4:37our first instinct is that that means
4:38it's a good value. It may not be, right?
4:40It may be that it was overvalued and now
4:42it's correcting to an appropriate value.
4:44You know, I mentioned TCGPlayer only has
4:46a 1-year max view, right? And so,
4:49particularly for games like Pokémon that
4:51have been around forever, we have a very
4:53skewed view of what the value of that
4:54card is.
4:56And so like, the biggest thing I think
4:57to take away here is like, ask yourself
4:59what you think something is worth before
5:01you look at the price. If you love it,
5:03and if you want to have it, ask yourself
5:05what it's worth to you. And then look at
5:07the price and see if the price reflects
5:09what you think it's worth to you, right?
5:12That's the best way to ensure that
5:13you're going to get something that you
5:14actually want. So, the next concept I
5:15want to talk about is the greater fool,
5:17and this is a term from economics that I
5:19think is absolutely fundamental to how
5:21all markets work, but in particular,
5:24speculative markets, of which TCGs, at
5:26least at the moment, are a speculative
5:28market. The way the greater fool works
5:30is it's basically the suggestion that
5:32like,
5:33sometimes people buy things because they
5:35inherently want it and because there's
5:37inherent value to them, right? That's
5:38just like a regular transaction. But
5:41then, sometimes people buy things not
5:43because they want it or they value it at
5:45that current price, but because they
5:47think that someone else in the future is
5:49going to want it
5:51more than they paid for it. So, they're
5:53going to make money by selling it to
5:55somebody else who also doesn't
5:57necessarily want it, but thinks they can
5:59sell it to somebody else for more money
6:02in the future. I wanted to include this
6:03graphic here, which I think is brilliant
6:05from Dr. Jean Page Rodrigue from Hofstra
6:08University. Now, this is like talking
6:10about markets in general, particularly
6:12like the stock market.
6:14Trading cards are a little bit
6:15different, right? Because like nobody
6:17wants to own like Nvidia stock to like
6:19look at it on their wall. But I think
6:21the point here is basically the same,
6:22right? Which is that in the very
6:24beginning you have people who understand
6:26like the value of something. I think in
6:27One Piece you have the players, you have
6:29the hardcore One Piece fans who were in
6:31in the beginning. They genuinely
6:32demanded it. And then as the game got a
6:35little bit more hype, other people
6:36started to give it a look. And then a
6:38lot of those people ended up, you know,
6:39being genuinely into it as well. But as
6:42time has gone on and it's gotten more
6:43attention, you have people coming over
6:44from other games that maybe don't really
6:46care about One Piece, but they just like
6:48see that it's doing well and the hype
6:50has brought them in. They want to be
6:51part of it. And that's where the risk
6:53comes, right? Because like if those
6:55people are not genuinely connected to
6:58the cards,
6:59then they're buying it because they
7:01think they're going to be able to sell
7:02it to somebody else for more money in
7:03the future. And that works up until a
7:05certain point, but at the end there's
7:07going to be a person who pays the most.
7:09And then [laughter] after that, prices
7:10are going to fall, right? This is always
7:12how it works. And so like I try to
7:15distinguish on this channel between what
7:16I see as like genuine demand versus like
7:19speculator like hype-driven demand.
7:22Because like what these cards are going
7:24to be worth long term, honestly, is like
7:27what the genuine demand is, right?
7:28Speculators will come and go, but like
7:31if you want to know what your card's
7:32going to be worth 10 years from now,
7:34like the genuine demand is what matters.
7:36I do think that like, you know, over 5
7:3810 years like the IP will grow, the game
7:41will grow, there will be more genuine
7:43demand that can pull prices higher. But
7:45we also still need to understand that
7:47speculation can have the effect of like
7:49masking what that genuine demand is. And
7:51so I want to give a specific example.
7:52And my goal here is not to trash Star
7:54Wars Unlimited, nor is it to say that
7:56Star Wars Unlimited is undervalued. But
7:58like I have a friend who just pulled
8:01this
8:0205 of 50 serialized Luke Skywalker out
8:05of a box for Star Wars Unlimited. So
8:07this is an incredibly rare card. And for
8:08those who don't know Star Wars Luke
8:10Skywalker is like the second most
8:11popular character, right? So imagine if
8:13this was like a serialized Zoro to 50.
8:16Right? Like we could debate about the
8:18art, whatever, but like it's an
8:19extremely scarce card of a very popular
8:21character from a very popular IP. Like
8:24what would that Zoro cost in One Piece?
8:25What do y'all think? Like $50,000,
8:28$100,000?
8:31This Luke can be had on TCGPlayer with a
8:34slightly different number for like 1,100
8:37bucks right now, right? And like again,
8:39this does not say that I think Star Wars
8:40Unlimited is undervalued. Like my point
8:43is is that like there isn't really
8:45speculative or collector's demand for
8:47Star Wars Unlimited.
8:49And so someone who's buying this for
8:51$1,100, they're not expecting to ever
8:53sell it. And so I think something we
8:54have to acknowledge is that even when we
8:57genuinely love something, some part of
9:00us is only willing to spend a lot of
9:02money on that thing because we expect
9:04that even if we don't make money, we'll
9:06be able to get it back in the future if
9:07we ever had to, right? That's the piece
9:09of it being an asset. And so I just
9:11wanted to bring this up as an example to
9:12say that like if we think the One Piece
9:14card should be 100 times more expensive
9:17than the Star Wars card, like is it
9:19really that One Piece fans are 100 times
9:22more excited about their cards than Star
9:26Wars fans are about their cards? Some
9:28amount of that value is coming from the
9:29fact that people think that it is an
9:32asset, think they will be able to get
9:33their money back, and to a large degree
9:35think that they're going to make money
9:36off of it, right? And so, I do want
9:38everyone to be cognizant that when you
9:40pay a price like that for something,
9:42like you're not just buying the card,
9:44right? You're also buying the
9:45expectation that it's an asset and that
9:48it's an investment, and that's where I
9:49think people need to be careful. Some
9:51people may or may not believe me, but
9:54you know, I'm a collector. I'm not an
9:55investor, right? I buy all my cards with
9:58an understanding that they could go to
9:59zero tomorrow and I'll still be okay
10:01with that because I love the cards and
10:03because I want to have them. And so,
10:05like
10:06obviously not everyone is going to view
10:09things that way, and that's totally
10:10fine. But I just wanted to give this
10:12Star Wars example as just a reminder
10:15that like in a world where TCG cards are
10:18not really considered assets or
10:19investments, like this is what the floor
10:22is, right? And so, like if you think
10:24that these things are bulletproof and
10:25they're always going to be worth that,
10:27just understand what's motivating that
10:28price. That's all I ask. So, the main
10:30takeaways here for me are number one,
10:31everything's going to hit a time bound
10:33ceiling, right? Demand absolutely can
10:35grow over time and as new people come
10:36in, there will be more demand, which
10:38will bring prices up and that will be
10:39like genuine natural price growth. But
10:42like over a short period of time, prices
10:44can only go so up so much without it
10:46being speculative, at least in my
10:48opinion. You know, another thing is that
10:49success makes us feel smart, right? Like
10:52I fully acknowledge that like while I
10:54try to use reason and data to inform my
10:58thoughts and share them with you, like I
11:00don't know what's going to happen in the
11:01future, right? The fact that like a lot
11:03of like the cards that I've said I
11:05thought would go up have gone up have
11:06been because almost every card has gone
11:08up, right? That makes us feel smart. It
11:11makes us feel like we know what's going
11:12to happen in the future, but the truth
11:14is we don't, right? And we need to
11:15remain humble about that.
11:18You know, the other unfortunate thing is
11:19the people who are drawn in by hype are
11:21the ones who often lose the most. Like
11:22the less you know about something when
11:24you get pulled into it, you are the most
11:26likely to be the last one holding the
11:27bag.
11:29And then finally, are you buying or
11:30keeping something because you want it or
11:32you assume somebody else will, right?
11:34The safest way to collect is just to not
11:36buy stuff that you don't actually want.
11:38Both because if you get stuck with it,
11:39then you will still enjoy it if it's
11:41something that you actually wanted, but
11:43also like if you want it, there's a
11:45decent chance that somebody else also
11:47wants it, right? Because that is like an
11:48indication of genuine demand. Okay, so
11:50the next concept I want to talk about is
11:52financialization.
11:53And this is essentially like creating an
11:56ecosystem around trading cards to make
11:58it feel like it's an investment and it's
12:00an asset in the same way that stocks
12:01are. So like the first classic example
12:03here is I don't think it's a coincidence
12:05that Collector's like screen where you
12:08track your cards looks exactly like
12:10Robinhood's screen where you track your
12:12stocks. Um, you know, I love Collector
12:14like I think it provides a ton of value,
12:16so this is not intended to be negative
12:18to them at all, but like I do think that
12:20this is sending a signal to us that
12:22like, "Hey, like our cards will, you
12:25know, trade in value in the same way
12:27that stocks do and we should treat them
12:28accordingly, right?"
12:30You know, I have the logo for PSA and
12:32CardLadder, who's also owned by PSA here
12:34as well, um because like there's a
12:37reciprocal cycle there of them wanting
12:40us to believe that cards are investment,
12:42right? So CardLadder is telling us this
12:45card is worth a thousand dollars and
12:47then you grade it with PSA and then PSA
12:49gets to look at CardLadder and say,
12:50"Hey, this card is worth a thousand
12:52dollars. That's why you need to give me
12:54X percentage as my cut, right?" And so
12:57like the point that I'm trying to make
12:59here is not that these things aren't
13:01like reasonable or helpful or that
13:04they're bad, but I am saying that
13:06institutions have now figured out that
13:08they can create the trappings of like
13:10traditional investments around
13:13non-traditional investments and that
13:15will make us take them more seriously in
13:17a way that's financially beneficial to
13:18them. You know, institutional money will
13:20protect prices as long as it's
13:22profitable for them to do that. PSA has
13:24made a huge investment in this space and
13:27I think they have a great understanding
13:28of what people want, and they've been
13:30really good at making money thus far.
13:31And I, you know, I've talked many times
13:33about how it's possible that their
13:34market advantage could erode, but it's
13:36certainly true that so far they've
13:38understood this market better than
13:39anybody else.
13:41You know, GameStop
13:43was trying to sell these 30th UPCs at
13:44$600 each. They actually got their hand
13:47slapped by Nintendo, which I think is
13:48awesome, and had to lower it to $400.
13:51But like, you might be asking like, why
13:53does GameStop want to charge so much
13:55money for these Pokémon products? Aren't
13:56people not going to want to buy them
13:58there? The timing of this announcement
14:00was not a coincidence, right? They were
14:02like the first people out there saying,
14:04"Yep, these boxes should be worth $600."
14:07Because they already knew what they were
14:08going to buy them from the distributor
14:09for, most likely. But they got to set
14:12the anchor for people to look at it that
14:15this should be worth $600.
14:17And so like, understand that like these
14:19companies want to charge high prices not
14:22just so that they can make more money
14:23per transaction, but because it
14:25increases the value of their inventory,
14:28and it increases their potential value
14:30when they sell more products in the
14:31future by convincing us that this stuff
14:33is worth a lot of money. And then the
14:34same thing with like the power packs.
14:36They won't make very much money if
14:38suddenly people decide these cards
14:39aren't worth anything, right? So they're
14:41incentivized financially to make us
14:43believe that like these are assets that
14:45are going to continue to grow in price,
14:46and that's why we should be spending
14:48money with them to try to get them.
14:49There's been a lot of good constructive
14:51conversation in the community about like
14:53all of the promo cards that have come
14:55out. I think like part of the reason
14:57people feel frustrated about the number
14:59of collaborations is because it just
15:00like creates this stress and recognition
15:02that like we can't possibly get
15:04everything, and that's frustrating,
15:06right? And like at a certain point it
15:08isn't fun anymore to like spend your
15:10entire day on your phone to hope that
15:13you're able to like get in at the moment
15:15that the Pokémon Center drops its UPCs,
15:18because that's the only way that you're
15:19ever going to get a a to get one, right?
15:21It's stressful, and it isn't fun. And I
15:23was reminded of this famous quote in the
15:25poker world uh from Amarillo Slim, "You
15:27can shear a sheep 100 times, but you can
15:29skin it only once." And I think as long
15:31as we're in this world where like
15:35companies have figured out how to shear
15:38us, to get us to overpay for stuff
15:40because we genuinely enjoy it, but still
15:42keep it fun, like then we're good,
15:45right? But if like suddenly everybody
15:47gets so greedy that people feel like
15:50they can't participate, and it isn't fun
15:52anymore, then that's just going to kill
15:53demand, right? You can only skin us
15:56once. Again, I don't know that any of
15:57this is going to happen, but I'm just
15:59acknowledging the place that these
16:00financial institutions uh are playing in
16:03the value of these cards, and
16:05recognizing that like
16:07financial institutions have messed up a
16:09golden situation in the past by being
16:11overly greedy. They will do it again in
16:12the future. Will they do it for this? I
16:14don't know, but it is a genuine risk.
16:17So, my big takeaways for this are that
16:18institutional money benefits from us
16:19treating these as assets, right? They
16:21want us to think that they're assets,
16:23and they make more money when we treat
16:24them as assets. They're also
16:25incentivized to keep prices high because
16:27they make the most money that way.
16:29And the interesting thing here is that
16:30while all of this may sound like a
16:32negative, this actually likely increases
16:34the stability of trading cards, right?
16:38You know, I think the real benefit that
16:39like PSA has brought to the market is
16:41that it has commoditized trading cards.
16:44A PSA 10 is a PSA 10, and so you can set
16:47a stable price for that, and that has
16:50enabled folks to actually trust that
16:52what they're buying is fairly priced,
16:55and that has also brought more people in
16:57because of that stability. I'm going to
16:59talk much more about that in a future
17:00video, um but for now, I do think this
17:03is one of the reasons why TCGs are more
17:06likely to stand the test of time than a
17:07lot of other collectibles that have seen
17:10big booms in the past.
17:11But I do also want to point out that
17:12this brings a lot of additional risk
17:14because like these financial
17:16institutions have different incentives
17:17from collectors.
17:19Uh and then also this is going to bring
17:20a lot of frustration, right? Cuz their
17:22incentives align with ours sometimes,
17:24but other times they do not. The next
17:26thing I want to talk about is the
17:27endowment effect. And this is another
17:29concept from psychology. And basically
17:31what this means is that we value things
17:33that we have more than we value things
17:37that we don't have, right? And so like
17:40if you've ever wondered why
17:42organizations or companies offer free
17:44trials first off, the answer is is
17:46because if they're trying to sell you a
17:47service for $20, you can look at that
17:49and be like, "Eh, is that worth $20 for
17:51me?"
17:52Nah, probably not. But if they say,
17:54"Hey, do you want to try this for free?"
17:56Your thought is, "Well, it doesn't cost
17:57me anything to try it." But it turns out
17:59it does because once you have it,
18:02it is harder for you to let go of it
18:04than it was for you to say no in buying
18:07it. And so we inherently value things we
18:10have more than the things that we could
18:12buy, which is why chances are even
18:14though you wouldn't have paid $20 in the
18:16first place, you are now willing to pay
18:17$20 to not have to lose it. I wanted to
18:20give a personal example for me, which is
18:22this Boa Lisa card, right? So I bought
18:25this for like 120 bucks. At the time it
18:27had been the most expensive card that
18:29I'd ever bought actually. Uh I never
18:31would have guessed that it it is worth
18:33what it is now. So the question is like
18:36why wouldn't I sell it given that the
18:38price has gone up so much? And like for
18:41me, there's a lot of reasons. One, like
18:44I've gotten used to seeing it every day,
18:46right? I have it in my display case. So
18:48it's become part of my day in a way that
18:49has made me more attached to it. I also
18:51sent mine in to be graded and it came
18:53back a BGS 10. So I obviously have like
18:55a lot of joy like caught up in the
18:57memory of that happening. That was super
18:59super exciting. And then obviously we
19:01also when we see prices go up, it makes
19:03us feel smart. So while I wouldn't have
19:06spent $200 for it in the beginning, I'm
19:09also not selling it even though it's
19:10worth way way way more than that now,
19:12right? And this is like the complex
19:15interaction of psychology and trading
19:17cards. So, the reason this happens is
19:19that the pain of losing is worse than
19:21the joy of gaining, right? This is
19:22called loss aversion. As I mentioned, we
19:24feel smart when prices go up and that
19:25makes us more attached to a card, right?
19:27We have good emotions associated with
19:30this. And then, as they become part of
19:31our routine, we grow more attached,
19:33right? The longer we have something, the
19:34harder it is to let it go. And I do
19:36think that this is like part of the
19:37reason why prices do go up over time,
19:40right? Because
19:41people have things, they don't want to
19:43let them go, they start to value them
19:45more, and that means that a new
19:46collector who comes in and wants it has
19:48to pry it from somebody else who values
19:50it at more than what they paid for it.
19:52So, in terms of what this means for
19:53prices, well, we want full value for
19:56what something is worth, not what we
19:58paid, right? Like our first anchor point
20:00may be what we paid for it, but then,
20:02when we go on TCGPlayer or eBay and we
20:04see what it's selling for now, that's
20:05what we think we deserve in order to
20:07sell it. Psychologically, we also fear
20:09selling too soon more than we fear
20:11selling too late. And so, this will
20:13cause us to hold on to things long past
20:15the point of where we should have sold
20:17them. And then finally, rising prices
20:19increase demand from new buyers and
20:21existing collectors. So, we've talked
20:22about this before, but like trading
20:24cards are Veblen goods, right? So, the
20:25more money they cost, the more demand
20:27there is for them. So, you know, in
20:29addition to whatever endowment effect
20:31like naturally exists for any item, when
20:33you see the value of your item actually
20:36go up, that creates more demand both
20:39from new people but also more demand
20:41from the people who already have them,
20:42which is why you can see these like
20:44parabolic changes in price because you
20:46have significantly more demand across
20:49like the new people and the old people,
20:52which can cause a massive spike. So, in
20:54terms of strategies for combating this,
20:55I always think it's a good idea to write
20:57down what you paid. I always write down
20:59what I paid for things in Collector so
21:00that I can keep that original anchor
21:02point to say, this is what I valued it
21:04at at this time. Like, if I now value it
21:06differently, like is that for real or am
21:09I just sort of getting caught up in the
21:10hype of price?
21:12You know, compare your cards to others
21:13and ask which you'd rather have. Like,
21:15trading is actually a great way to do
21:17this, right? If you have a card that
21:18like spikes in price and it's hard for
21:20you to imagine letting it go, think
21:22about what other card that you've always
21:24wanted that you weren't willing to pay
21:25for that you might be able to trade that
21:26for. And then the final thing is to set
21:28deliberate benchmarks to sell at, right?
21:29I mean, you could say, like, if this
21:31goes up X amount of dollars, I'm going
21:33to sell it. You know, one of the best
21:34pieces of collecting advice I ever
21:36heard, which sounds frankly quaint now,
21:39was buy two copies of everything at MSRP
21:41and then if it doubles in price, sell
21:43one so that you have another one and
21:45then you have a zero cost basis for all
21:48the things that you have and then you
21:49keep it as long as you want in your
21:50collection because you want to have it,
21:52right? Like, I actually think that
21:54that's a really smart approach to say
21:56that like I'm going to set a point and
21:58say if it crosses this point, I'm going
21:59to sell it and like whatever else
22:01happens in the future, I know that like
22:03I still have some stake in the game. So,
22:05prices going up are good for me, but
22:08also I don't need to regret the fact
22:09that I sold because I know that I've
22:11hedged against the uncertainty that's
22:13inherent within markets. And the final
22:15thing I want to talk about here is
22:16market manipulation. So, this happens in
22:18two different ways. So, the first is
22:20that people hide the ball on genuine
22:21demand, right? So, I mentioned the
22:23inherent challenges with using TCGPlayer
22:25and eBay as like a marketplace for
22:28setting what our price should be for
22:30things. Obviously, there's like
22:31manipulation in terms of people buying
22:33up a lot of supply to drive up prices,
22:35but there's also even like more
22:36nefarious manipulation where someone
22:38will list something for a price, they
22:40will create an account to buy it and
22:42then they'll cancel the purchase and so
22:44it looks like it sold, but it didn't
22:45actually sell. So, we need to be super,
22:47super careful about the prices that
22:49we're seeing for things online.
22:51But in terms of examples, I wanted to
22:52talk about the One Piece
22:54uh 25th anniversary collection
22:57um from Premium Bandai. So, this is a
22:59set that like a year ago was like 50
23:02bucks. It was not super popular, to be
23:04honest. Um and then there was a slow
23:07increase in price as we went through
23:09like the first half of the first boom,
23:11right? As everything in One Piece went
23:13up, which made sense. And then we see
23:15like a huge amount of buyouts and a
23:18rapid price spike, right? This is
23:20usually like my first signal that a
23:22market has been manipulated because
23:23you're seeing like a significant outlier
23:25in terms of the number of purchases, and
23:27then you're seeing prices rise sort of
23:29parabolically, right? Because there
23:31hasn't been an opportunity yet for
23:33people who have supply to come relist it
23:36to lower the price again. And so that's
23:38what we then see happen over a period of
23:39time. People come in, they see the
23:41higher prices, they relist, the prices
23:43go down again, right? There's not that
23:45much interest in buying. And then you
23:47see like another big spike of people
23:49buying, and then the prices spike up
23:51again. This looks like manipulation to
23:53me, right? So for me, like this is
23:56exactly the type of product that I want
23:58no part of. I like have very rarely
24:00heard someone talk about how much
24:02they're just obsessed with the art in
24:03this collection. So I could be wrong,
24:06but that's just my take on the graph. I
24:08also wanted to talk about this Drowsy
24:09here because one of the things that's
24:11like interesting about attempts at
24:13market manipulation is that oftentimes
24:15someone will identify a card that they
24:16think might be undervalued. They'll like
24:18buy up a ton of them to try to drive up
24:20the price in the short term, and then
24:22they'll just sort of wait and see if the
24:24market accepts the new price. So like
24:26this Drowsy was like 15 or 20 dollars,
24:28somewhere around there. Um and then it
24:30spiked up to like 80 dollars in like a
24:32weekend. And then unsurprisingly, the
24:35price ended up coming really far back
24:37down because people did not accept the
24:40manipulated price. Well, now this Drowsy
24:42is like 70 dollars, right? Like this
24:45card did not go from a 20 dollar card to
24:47an 80 dollar card overnight. That was
24:48manipulation. But the card did
24:50eventually go to being like an 80 dollar
24:52card as more people came in and
24:55identified that it was a cool card and
24:57naturally drove up the demand. So, like
24:59I think the manipulators were
25:01identifying something legitimate about
25:02this card. Like I personally love this
25:04card.
25:05But like it took time for the natural
25:07demand to actually grow. And so, like
25:09again, while I've said I'm bullish on
25:11One Piece's natural demand long-term, I
25:14do think we have to be realistic about
25:16how much prices can go up over such a
25:18short period of time,
25:20uh and let these things take their
25:22course to grow naturally. The other type
25:24of market manipulation I want to talk
25:26about is false market signals um from
25:28artificially constrained supply. And
25:31like I actually don't think this is
25:33nearly as big of a problem with One
25:34Piece, right? The supply for One Piece
25:36is relatively low. Credit to Bandai for
25:38seeming like they provide most of their
25:40boxes
25:41uh to like local stores that have like
25:43big player populations, right? That's
25:45amazing. That's a recipe for actually
25:47getting supply in the hands of people
25:48who are going to use it and open it. Um
25:51and like I'm not knocking people for
25:52wanting to keep sealed product. I keep
25:54some sealed product as well. Part of it
25:56is because like they traditionally go up
25:57in value, but part of it is just because
25:59like I know that I could pick up a box
26:02and open it at any time, and that makes
26:03me feel like a a sense of freedom. But I
26:08do think we need to acknowledge that
26:10there are things that are happening at
26:11scale here that are not the same as just
26:14like a regular collector who's buying a
26:15couple sealed boxes or like buying a
26:17sealed case every set, right? So, like
26:19on the left is like a snapshot from one
26:22of Rudy's videos uh at Alpha
26:24Investments. You know, credit to Rudy,
26:27Rudy is not trying to hide the ball
26:29about what he does. In fact, he is
26:30extremely frank about what he's doing,
26:33what he has, and what he advises other
26:35people to do. But like, you know,
26:37particularly in Pokémon, when we talk
26:38about like, "Oh, all the stock was
26:40botted." Like
26:42there are people behind those bots.
26:44Pokémon is telling us that they're
26:45printing an astronomical
26:47amount of product. And yet, it seems
26:49like not nearly enough product is making
26:51it to consumers. I don't think that's
26:53because there's not enough production. I
26:55think it's because there are people who
26:57have figured out how to clean out the
27:00supply before it gets to the end
27:02collectors. And so like this is an
27:04example where I think everyone should be
27:06extremely careful. And frankly, I am a
27:09little bit worried that like this
27:11behavior in the Pokémon market could
27:12also take down other TCGs with it as
27:15well because
27:16like these people who are buying these
27:18as investments and have these like
27:20warehouses of sealed product. Like if
27:22demand ever softens, they're going to
27:24want to sell some of it. And then if
27:26prices start to fall, you're going to
27:27see other people panic and start to sell
27:29things and then prices could crash. Like
27:32that could frankly take down the
27:33credibility of like TCGs in general,
27:35right? Because like prognosticators that
27:37don't understand what's really happening
27:39could say like, well, I guess the TCG
27:41bubble just popped and it was never real
27:43in the first place, right? When in
27:44reality, it was like a specific market
27:46manipulation in a specific sector of a
27:49specific TCG.
27:50So in terms of my big takeaways, like
27:52number one, just try to avoid obvious
27:53buyouts, right? If you look at a graph
27:55and it's increased like fourfold in 5
27:56days because there's been a tremendous
27:58amount of demand, like unless you
28:00absolutely can't live without it, I just
28:02recommend waiting. I always recommend
28:04looking at the full year chart, too,
28:05right? Don't just anchor to what it says
28:07like the median price is. Like look at
28:09what the price was, you know, a year ago
28:12and ask the question of whether or not
28:13you think the change in price is
28:15justified and more importantly whether
28:16it's worth it to you at that new price.
28:19And then most critically, don't assume
28:21things are scarce just because they are
28:23hard for you to find. The incentives in
28:25these markets can favor manipulation.
28:28And so like with that being the case,
28:30don't assume that if you don't see
28:32something, it means that it doesn't
28:34exist. Chances are it just means that
28:36somebody else who had a better access to
28:38it picked it up before you could. And
28:40finally, while I know this is not a
28:41Pokémon channel, I know that there are
28:42people who also buy Pokémon as well. And
28:45so I just want people to be careful with
28:47modern sealed Pokémon product,
28:49recognizing that like these things have
28:51been printed into oblivion. And if that
28:53supply ever comes out all at once, it
28:55could be absolutely catastrophic. So,
28:57that's all I have for today. As always,
28:59I hope you found this helpful. You know,
29:01I'm not trying to be doom and gloom or
29:03any of this. I am optimistic about the
29:05future of trading cards and One Piece in
29:07particular. But, I do just want to be
29:10honest with people so that their eyes
29:11open about the risk so that they don't
29:13feel like they've been misled uh if
29:15something bad were to happen, right? As
29:17a risk person, like this is really,
29:19really important to me, and this is
29:21something that I hope you take away from
29:22watching this channel as well. So,
29:24uh with that, as always, if you found
29:26this helpful, please give us a like. Uh
29:28you know, if you haven't already
29:28subscribed, I'm really interested in
29:30hearing your take on these situations. I
29:32love chatting with you all in the
29:33comments. Uh if you're interested in
29:34picking up any cards, we have our
29:35TCGplayer affiliate link as well as our
29:37eBay storefront. Uh obviously, no
29:39pressure, but if you buy something,
29:40we'll get a small commission, which
29:41helps us out a ton. So, with that, as
29:44always, I really appreciate your time,
29:46and I will see you in the next one.

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