Fisher Investments über seine Erfahrungen zur Vereinbarkeit von Kapitalerhalt und Wachstum — Transcript

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1. 0:02whenever we get into a period of a
2. 0:04certain amount of volatility in while
3. 0:06Whi in capital markets there's a
4. 0:09increased uh desire and large Universe
5. 0:13vendors who one way or another want
6. 0:16offer Capital preservation and
7. 0:19growth and so sometimes I'm ask how
8. 0:22effective that is that there there's a
9. 0:25kind of a skitso answer to
10. 0:27that if your goal is for simultaneous
11. 0:33Capital preservation and
12. 0:36growth it is an impossible goal it's the
13. 0:41moral
14. 0:43equivalency to calorie free
15. 0:48cheesecake uh in the legendary phrase of
16. 0:52beauty pageant uh the ever common
17. 0:55statement that pageant participant is in
18. 0:59favor of moral peace which of course
19. 1:02we've never ever had and uh In Our
20. 1:04Lifetime we will never have there's
21. 1:06always multiple Wars going on someplace
22. 1:08in the
23. 1:09world uh
24. 1:12or sensible politicians with your
25. 1:15interests particularly in mind
26. 1:18levelheaded
27. 1:20and fair and just these are all
28. 1:24fantasies and so is capital preservation
29. 1:26and growth if treated as simultaneous
30. 1:30goals now on the other hand if you
31. 1:34actually pursue growth
32. 1:37sensibly you achieve both Capital
33. 1:39preservation and growth in the long term
34. 1:41because the growth take care of the
35. 1:43capital preservation with some
36. 1:45volatility along the way the problem is
37. 1:49that actual Capital
38. 1:52preservation by itself implies a lack of
39. 1:56volatility and that feels good whenever
40. 2:00we've come through gut-wrenching wild
41. 2:02whip in the
42. 2:04market but is in fact impossible to link
43. 2:08with growth because people
44. 2:11forget said simply
45. 2:15that negative volatility of 1 three or
46. 2:195% is similarly volatile to positive
47. 2:23volatility that would get you back to
48. 2:25the same level of a little more than 1 3
49. 2:27or
50. 2:285% and
51. 2:31there if you wipe out the one you can't
52. 2:33have the other you cannot eradicate a
53. 2:37downside volatility without eradicating
54. 2:39upside volatility and the more you
55. 2:41eradicate downside volatility the more
56. 2:43you eradicate upside volatility so pure
57. 2:47true Capital
58. 2:49preservation uh
59. 2:51implies the equivalent of near cash-like
60. 2:55returns which inherently are low and
61. 2:57negative relative to inflation almost
62. 3:00always uh they are almost always not
63. 3:04always but almost always and in the long
64. 3:08term have been then you can get a higher
65. 3:13return uh in the long term by owning
66. 3:16bonds but people forget and you probably
67. 3:19don't forget that just like in
68. 3:242022 when long-term interest rates went
69. 3:27up that forces the bond price down down
70. 3:30and you had near stock market like
71. 3:32downside volatility with bonds followed
72. 3:35by the next year with near stock market
73. 3:38like volatility
74. 3:40up for
75. 3:42banks being at bonds is typically less
76. 3:46followable of being in stocks but it
77. 3:50doesn't
78. 3:52have any eradication
79. 3:56volatility said otherwise if you think
80. 4:00of 10 or 30 year US government bonds
81. 4:04right now uh you know they're
82. 4:07rendering some place around 3.6 to uh
83. 4:11just under
84. 4:124%
85. 4:14and that's real consistent
86. 4:18with the long-term average inflation
87. 4:23rate so you're treading
88. 4:26water and currently the inflation rate
89. 4:29is is running right around 2 and a half%
90. 4:33year-over-year as I
91. 4:34speak and of course 2 and a half%
92. 4:37year-over year for inflation is not a
93. 4:39very precisely accurate number so some
94. 4:43parts of life are more than that some
95. 4:45parts of life or less than that it's
96. 4:47just a statistical average of an index
97. 4:49that's not very precise to begin with
98. 4:52but be that as it may if you have moving
99. 4:55ahead since the long-term average of
100. 4:58inflation in the United States been a
101. 5:01good percentage plus higher than that uh
102. 5:04if you return to Historic averages or
103. 5:06higher still that implies bond price
104. 5:10fall about and yields would rise and uh
105. 5:15the yields Rising bond price falling
106. 5:18would give you more downside volatility
107. 5:20in bonds all that I'm really saying is
108. 5:22doing bonds doesn't escape
109. 5:24volatility in the long term you achieve
110. 5:28grow with vol
111. 5:30ility by owning stock so if you think
112. 5:34of the history of the S&P 500 since
113. 5:381925 uh where you have good accurate
114. 5:40daily pricing uh you've never ever had
115. 5:44a negative 20-year period uh five and
116. 5:4910e periods are overwhelmingly positive
117. 5:52not as much so as 20year periods
118. 5:55volatility along the way but the 20-year
119. 5:58returns never ever negative have 800
120. 6:01plus per average returns over the 20
121. 6:04years which is pretty big returns point
122. 6:07that I'm wanting to make to you is if
123. 6:10you do that you've preserved your
124. 6:11capital and you've grown that's the
125. 6:14conundrum the achievement of capital
126. 6:16preservation and growth can only really
127. 6:21be achieved by putting the pursuit of
128. 6:24the growth without taking crazy risks
129. 6:27like being Diversified with inequities
130. 6:31uh it can only be achieved that way it's
131. 6:33a point that people miss the desire to
132. 6:36minimize downside volatility is so
133. 6:38strong in some that by achieving the
134. 6:41minimization of downside volatility they
135. 6:44also don't get that long-term return
136. 6:49that you accomplish out of owning
137. 6:51equities with volatility along the way
138. 6:55and then they miss look if they miss
139. 6:57that upside they don't get the growths
140. 7:00they just get the attempt to mimic
141. 7:04inflation which might work might not but
142. 7:07you own those 10 to 30-year bonds for 10
143. 7:10to 30 years and uh you might come ahead
144. 7:13with a slight return uh particularly if
145. 7:16inflation Falls and interest rates fall
146. 7:18over those years but you might also Come
147. 7:21Away with a negative
148. 7:23return all I'm really saying and it's
149. 7:25very
150. 7:28simple to try to achieve both
151. 7:30simultaneously is
152. 7:32impossible to pursue sensible growths by
153. 7:37diversification among equities over the
154. 7:39long term competed growth and provides
155. 7:42Capital preservation because growth in
156. 7:44and of itself achieves Capital
157. 7:47preservation so that that's really a
158. 7:49long complicated explanation to what
159. 7:51should be a pretty simple topic but when
160. 7:53people tell you they going to do
161. 7:56something that's going to provide you
162. 7:58Capital preservation and growth
163. 8:00they're either
164. 8:01wrong May believe it but they're wrong
165. 8:05not kind of understanding how it really
166. 8:06works upside volatility downside
167. 8:08volatility being flip sides to the same
168. 8:12coin and not that if they don't
169. 8:15understand that or they're haing bad
170. 8:19product at you which is also pretty
171. 8:21common uh in the guise of that which is
172. 8:26worse or they're even
173. 8:30criminal like Ponzi scheme type folks
174. 8:32that
175. 8:33pedal invariably the Ponzi scheme people
176. 8:36pedal the same concept they've got a
177. 8:38magic way to do it for you and that's
178. 8:41the equivalent of what Bernie maid off
179. 8:42was which is above average returns with
180. 8:46no downside volatility that's that's
181. 8:49just pretty much like calorie free
182. 8:52cheesecake uh and is pretty much if you
183. 8:54swallow that going to taste like calorie
184. 8:57free
185. 8:58cheesecake so
186. 9:00thank you for listening to me I hope you
187. 9:02found this useful and educational take
188. 9:04care talk to you next this is Ken
189. 9:06Fischer subscribe to the Fisher
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