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Fiona Hill: Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump | Lex Fridman Podcast #335 — Transcript

by Lex Fridman · 39,977 words · 5,834 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00we've got to have strategic empathy
0:02about Putin as well we've got to
0:03understand how the guy thinks and why he
0:05thinks like he does
0:07you know he he has got his own context
0:09in his own frame and his own rationale
0:12and he is rational he is a rational
0:14actor in his own context we've got to
0:16understand that we've got to understand
0:17that he would take offense at something
0:19and he would take action over something
0:20it doesn't mean to say that you know we
0:23are necessary to blame by taking actions
0:26but we are to blame and we don't
0:27understand the consequences of things
0:29that we do and act accordingly or you
0:32know take preventative action or
0:34recognize that something might happen as
0:36a result of something what is the
0:38probability that Russia attacks Ukraine
0:40with the tactical nuclear weapon
0:44the following is a conversation with
0:46Fiona Hill a presidential advisor and
0:49foreign policy expert specializing in
0:51Russia she has served the bush Obama and
0:54Trump administrations including being a
0:57top advisor on Russia to Donald Trump
1:00she has made it to the White House from
1:02humble beginnings in the north of
1:03England a story she tells in her book
1:07there's nothing for you here
1:09this is the Lex Friedman podcast to
1:12support it please check out our sponsors
1:13in the description and now dear friends
1:16here's Fiona Hill
1:19you came from Humble beginning in a coal
1:22mining town in Northeast England so what
1:25were some formative moments in your
1:27young life that made you the woman you
1:30are today
1:31I was born in 1965 and it was the period
1:34where the whole coal sector in Britain
1:37was in Decline already
1:39and you know basically my father by the
1:43time I came along had lost his job
1:44multiple times every coal mine he worked
1:46in was closing down he was looking
1:48constantly further work and he had no
1:50qualifications because at age 14 he'd
1:53gone down the mines his father had gone
1:55down the mines at 13 his great
1:56grandfather you know around the same
1:58kind of age I mean you had a lot of
1:59people you know at different points
2:01going down coal mines at 12 13 you know
2:0314 they didn't get educated beyond that
2:06period because the expectation was pay
2:08you're going to go down the mine like
2:09everybody else in your family
2:11although they didn't really have any
2:13other qualifications
2:14to you know basically find another job
2:17Beyond something in manual labor so I
2:19worked in a steel works that didn't work
2:22out a brickworks that closed down and
2:24then he went to work in the local
2:25hospital part of the National Health
2:27Service in the United Kingdom as a
2:28porter an orderly supposedly somebody's
2:30just pushing people around there was no
2:32opportunity to retrain so the big issue
2:35in my family was education you've got to
2:38have one you know you've got to have
2:40some qualifications the world is
2:42changing it's changing really quickly
2:43and for you to kind of keep up with it
2:45you're going to have to
2:47get educated and find a way out of this
2:50I'm very early on my father had
2:51basically said to me there's nothing for
2:53you here
2:54you're going to have to if you want to
2:57get ahead and he didn't have any kind of
2:59idea that as a girl I wouldn't I mean
3:00actually in many respects I think I've
3:01benefited from being a girl rather than
3:03a boy there was no expectation that I
3:05would go into industry uh there was you
3:07know some kind of idea that maybe I you
3:10know if I got qualifications I could be
3:12a nurse my mother was a midwife and so
3:14she'd at age 16 left school and gone to
3:16train as a nurse and then as a midwife I
3:19had other relatives who'd gone to teach
3:21you know in local schools and so there
3:24was an idea that you know women could
3:25get educated and there was a kind of a
3:27range of things that you could do but
3:29the expectation then was
3:31go out there do something with your life
3:34but also a sense that you'd probably
3:36have to leave so all of that was
3:39circling around me particularly in my
3:41teenage years as I mean I was trying to
3:43find my way through life and looking
3:46forward
3:47first of all what does that even look
3:49like uh getting educated given the
3:52context of that place you don't know
3:54there's a whole world of mystery out
3:55there so how do you figure out what to
3:57actually do out there what was there
3:59moments formative moments either
4:02challenging or just inspiring where you
4:06wondered about what you want to be
4:08where you want to go yeah I don't want
4:10me to a number of things I mean I think
4:11like a lot of kids you know you you talk
4:13to people and particularly from Blue
4:15Collar background you said what did you
4:16want to do boys might say I wanted to be
4:17a fireman you know or you got you know
4:19kind of I at one point is a little girl
4:22I wanted to be a nurse and I had little
4:23nurses uniform like my mother I didn't
4:25really know what that meant but you know
4:26I used to go around pretending to be a
4:28nurse I even had a little magazine
4:30called nurse Nancy and I used to read
4:32this and you know kind of that was one
4:34of the formative ideas we also it was a
4:37rural area semi-rural area and you know
4:39I'd be out in the the fields all the
4:40time and I'd watch Farmers you know with
4:43their animals and I'd see vets coming
4:44along and you know watching people deal
4:47with a livestock and there was a kind of
4:48a famous story at the time about a vet
4:51called James Harriet um it became here
4:53in the United States as well and was a
4:55lot of TV mini series he'd written a
4:57book and he was the vet for my uh one of
4:59my uh great aunt's dogs and people were
5:01always talking about him and I thought
5:02oh I could be a vet and then one day I
5:04saw one of the local vets with his hand
5:06up the back side of a cow in a field and
5:09he got his hands stuck and the cow was
5:10kicking him and I thought yeah maybe
5:12maybe not actually no I don't think I
5:14wanted to be a vet so I cycle through
5:16all of these things about okay I could
5:18get an education but the whole sense was
5:19you had to apply your education it
5:21wasn't an education for Education sick
5:23it was an education to do something and
5:26when I was about 14 or 15 my local
5:28Member of Parliament came to the school
5:30and it was one of these you know pep
5:32talks for kids in these you know
5:34deprived areas he had been quite
5:37prominent in local education and now he
5:39was a member of parliament he himself
5:40had come from a really hard Scrabble
5:42background and had risen up through
5:44education had even gone to Oxford and
5:46done philosophy politics and economics
5:48and he basically told my class even
5:51though it was highly unlikely any of us
5:52were really going to get ahead and go to
5:54Elite institutions look you can get an
5:56education you don't have to be held back
5:58by your circumstances but if you do get
6:00an education it's a privilege and you
6:01need to do something with it
6:03so then I'm thinking
6:05well what could I do okay an education
6:07is a qualifications to do something most
6:10people around me I didn't I knew didn't
6:12have careers I mean my dad didn't really
6:13have a career he had jobs my mom you
6:15know thought of her nursing as a career
6:17though and it genuinely was and she was
6:19out there trying to help women uh
6:21survive childbirth my mother had these
6:24horrific stories you know basically over
6:26the dining room table I wish he'd stop
6:28she'd leave out her nursing books and
6:30I'd tell you if everyone had had my mum
6:31as a as a mother there'd be no there'd
6:33be no reproduction on the planet it was
6:35just this Grim horrific stories of
6:37breached births and fistulas and all
6:39kinds of Horrors that my sister and I
6:41would just go oh my God you know what
6:43please stop
6:45so I thought well you know I don't
6:46necessarily want to go in that um in
6:49that direction but it was the timing
6:51that really cinched things for me
6:54I was very lucky that the region that I
6:56grew up County Durham despite the
6:58massive Decline de-industrialization and
7:00the complete collapse of uh the local
7:04government system around me still
7:06maintained money for education and they
7:08also paid for exchanges and we had
7:10exchange programs with cities in Germany
7:14and France also in Russia in Costa Rama
7:16near Yaris level for example no textile
7:18Town similar you know down in its kind
7:21of region but you know quite historic in
7:23the Russian context in fact the original
7:25uh birthplace of the Romanov Dynasty and
7:29customer just as County Durham and it
7:31was quite a distinguished historic area
7:32in the in the British context and so it
7:34was an idea that I could go on exchanges
7:36I could learn languages I studied German
7:38I studied French
7:40and then in 1983
7:43there was the warsker
7:45basically provoked by the Euro methyl
7:47crisis so the station of new categories
7:50of strategic nuclear weapons and
7:51intermediate nuclear weapons in Western
7:55Europe and in Eastern Europe during the
7:58height of the Cold War and the zero
8:00Missile Crisis over ss-20 and Pershing
8:02missiles went on from 1977 so when I was
8:05about 11 or 12 you know all the way
8:07through into the later part of the 1980s
8:10and in 1983 we came extraordinarily
8:14close
8:15to a nuclear conflict it was very much
8:18another rerun of the Cuban Missile
8:20Crisis of 1962 so 20 years on same kind
8:24of thing the Soviets misread although I
8:26didn't know this at the time I know a
8:27lot of this you know after the fact but
8:29the tension was palpable but what
8:31happened was the Soviets misread the
8:33intentions of a series of exercises uh
8:37operation Able Archer that the United
8:39States was conducting and actually
8:40thought that the United States might be
8:42preparing for a first nuclear strike and
8:44that then set up a whole set of literal
8:46chain reactions in the Soviet Union
8:49eventually it was recognized that you
8:51know all of this was really based on
8:53misperceptions and of course you know
8:55that later led to negotiations between
8:58Gorbachev and Reagan for the
9:00intermediate nuclear forces the INF
9:01treaty but in 1983 that tension was just
9:04acute and for as a teenager we were
9:07basically being prepped the whole time
9:09for
9:10um the inevitability of nukaramageddon
9:14there were TV series films in the United
9:17States and the UK threads the day after
9:19we had all these public service
9:20announcements telling us to seek
9:23Sanctuary or cover and the inevitability
9:25of a nuclear blast and you know my house
9:27was so small they said look for a room
9:29without a window there were no rooms
9:31without Windows my dad put on these
9:32really thick curtains over the window
9:34you know and said if there was a nuclear
9:36flash you know we'd have to you know get
9:38down on the floor not look up but the
9:40curtains would help and we were like
9:41this is ridiculous dad and we would all
9:43try to see if we could squeeze in the uh
9:44space under the stairs a cupboard Under
9:46the Stairs like Harry Potter I was all
9:48just you know totally nuts or go or you
9:50had to throw yourself in a ditch if you
9:52were outside
9:53and I thought well this this isn't going
9:54to work and one of my great uncles who
9:57had fought in World War II said well
9:58look you're good at languages Fiona why
10:00didn't you go and study Russian try to
10:01figure it out figure out why the
10:03Russians are trying to blow us up
10:04because you know during the go talk to
10:06them they're exactly during World War II
10:07yeah the United Kingdom the United
10:09States and the Soviet Union had all been
10:11wartime allies and my uncle Charlie
10:13thought well there's something gone
10:14wrong here maybe you can figure it out
10:16and as you said you'd go talk to them so
10:18I thought okay I'll study Russian so
10:21that's really how this came about I
10:22thought well it's applying education
10:24I'll just do my very best to understand
10:26everything I possibly can about the
10:28Russian language and the Soviet Union
10:29and I'll see what I can do and I thought
10:31well maybe I could become a translator
10:33so I had visions of myself sitting
10:35around you know listening to things in a
10:37big headset and in a basically
10:39translating perhaps at some you know
10:41future Arms Control Summit
10:43so how did the journey
10:47continue with learning Russian
10:50I mean this early dream of being a
10:53translator and thinking how can I
10:55actually uh help understand or maybe
10:58help even deeper way with this conflict
11:01that threatens the existence of the
11:03human species
11:05um how did it actually continue
11:07well I mean I read everything I also
11:09actually possibly could about you know
11:10nuclear weapons and nuclear war and you
11:12know it started to try to teach myself
11:13you know Russian a little bit it was a
11:15losing context of nuclear war it was
11:17very much in the context of nuclear this
11:19particular point but also in historical
11:21context because I knew that the United
11:23States and the United Kingdom and the
11:25Soviet Union had been more time allies
11:26in World War II so try to understand all
11:28of that and also
11:30um you know I like many other people I
11:33read you know Russian literature in
11:34Translation I'd read War and Peace and
11:36you know I'd love the book actually I
11:38mean particularly the you know the story
11:39parts of it I wasn't one really at that
11:41at that time when I was a teenager I
11:43thought Tolstoy went on a bit you know
11:45in terms of his theories of the great
11:47man and of history and you know kind of
11:49social change though now I appreciate it
11:51more but when I was about 14 I was like
11:52this man needed an editor you know could
11:55you have just gone on with the story
11:55from an amazing story what an incredible
11:57you know kind of book this is I still
11:59think he needs another book I think his
12:02wife tried didn't you but um he got
12:04quite upset with her and then I kind of
12:06thought to myself well how do I how do I
12:07study Russian because there were very
12:09few schools in my uh region you know
12:12given the impoverishment of the region
12:13where you could study Russian so I would
12:15have to take Russian from scratch
12:17and this is where things get really
12:20quite interesting
12:21because there were opportunities to
12:23study
12:24um Russian at universities but I would
12:26need to have first of all an intensive
12:29Russian language course in the summer
12:31and I didn't have the money for that
12:33and the period is around the miners
12:35strike in the United Kingdom in 1984.
12:40now the miners of County Durham that
12:43very interestingly had exchanges and
12:46ties with the miners of donbass going
12:48back to the 1920s
12:51and as I studied Russian history I
12:52discovered there was lots of contacts
12:54between you know Bolshevik Soviet Union
12:57the early period after the Russian
12:58Revolution but even before that during
13:00the Imperial period in Russia between
13:02the northern England and the Russian
13:04Empire and the old industrial areas
13:06basically big industrial areas like the
13:08northeast of England and places like Don
13:11bass were built up at the same time
13:12Often by the same sets of industrialists
13:15and danetsk in the donbass region used
13:18to be called husicka because it was
13:21established by a Welsh industrialist who
13:24brought in miners from Wales to help you
13:27know kind of develop the coal mines
13:28there and also the the steel works and
13:30others that you know were gearing about
13:32all the time and so I got very
13:34fascinated in all these linkages and you
13:35know famous writers from the early parts
13:37of the Soviet Union like give Guinea
13:39zamyasin worked in the shipyards in
13:41Newcastle upon Tyne and there was just
13:45this whole set of connections
13:47and in 1984
13:51when the miners strike took place the
13:53miners of donbass along with other
13:55miners from famous coal regions like
13:57Duro Valley for example in Germany or
14:00mine is in Poland
14:02sent money in solidarity to the miners
14:04of County Durham and they've been these
14:06exchanges as I said going back and forth
14:08since the 1920s formal exchanges between
14:10miners you know the region the miners
14:12unions
14:13and I um heard again from the same uh
14:18great uncle who told me to study Russian
14:21that there were actually scholarships of
14:23the children of miners it could be
14:24former miners as well for their
14:26education and I should go along to the
14:29miners Hall Players called Red Hills
14:32where the the minders of country Durham
14:34had actually pulled all of their
14:35resources and built up their own
14:37Parliament and their own you know kind
14:39of players that they could talk among
14:41themselves to figure out how to enhance
14:43the welfare and well-being of their
14:45communities and they'd put money aside
14:47for education for minors there was all
14:48kinds of lecture series from the miners
14:50and all kinds of other activities
14:52supporting soccer teams and artistic
14:55circles and writing circles for example
14:57people like George Orwell you know were
14:59involved in some of these writers
15:00circles in other parts of Britain and
15:03Mining communities for example and so uh
15:06they told me I could you know go along
15:08and basically apply for a grant to go to
15:11study Russian so I show up and it was
15:13the easiest you know application I've
15:15ever come across that just asked me to
15:16my dad came along with me they asked me
15:19to verify you know that my dad had been
15:21a minor and they looked up his
15:23employment record on little cards you
15:25know kind of a little a little tray
15:26somewhere and then they asked me how
15:28much I needed you know to uh basically
15:31pay for the travel and some of the basic
15:34expenses for the um
15:37the study and they wrote me a check
15:39and so thanks to the miners of donbath
15:41and this money that was deposited with
15:43the miners of County Durham with the
15:45Durham miners Association I got the
15:47money to study Russian for the first
15:49time uh before I embarked on my studies
15:52at University as you're speaking now
15:55it's reminding me that there's a
15:56different way to look both at history
15:59and a geography in the different places
16:01is
16:03um
16:04you know this is an industrial region
16:06that's right and it echoes in the
16:09experience of living there
16:11is more captured not by Moscow or Kiev
16:15but by at least historically but by just
16:19being a mining town and Industry that's
16:22right in the place itself yeah yeah I
16:24mean there are places in the United
16:25States and Appalachia and West Virginia
16:27and in Pennsylvania like the Lehigh
16:29Valley that have the same sense of place
16:31on the northeast of England you know was
16:33the Cradle of the Industrial Revolution
16:35it was the Industrial version of the
16:37silica of Silicon Valley which has its
16:40own
16:41I would say Contours and frames and when
16:44you come to those industrial areas your
16:46previous identities get submerged in
16:49that larger framework I've always looked
16:51at the world through that lens of being
16:54you know someone from the working class
16:55the blue collar communities from a very
16:57specific place with lots of historical
16:59and economic connotations
17:02and it's also a Melting Pot which is the
17:05problems that the donbass has
17:07experienced uh over you know the last 30
17:10years that people came from all over the
17:11place to work that of course it was a a
17:13population that one might say is
17:14indigenous you know might have gone back
17:16centuries there but they would have been
17:18you know in the smaller rural farming
17:19communities just like it was the same in
17:21the northeast of England
17:22and people in the case of the northeast
17:25of England came from Wales they came
17:27from further in the south of England the
17:28Midlands they came from Scotland they
17:30came from Ireland
17:31um I have all of that Heritage in my own
17:33personal background
17:35and you've got a different identity
17:38unless when somebody else tries to
17:39impose a den an identity like on you
17:42from the outside that things go awry and
17:44I think that that's kind of what we've
17:45really seen in the case of Don bass it's
17:48a place it's a part in many respects
17:50historically and in terms of its
17:52Evolution and development over time and
17:55you know particularly in the case of you
17:57know Russia uh the Russians have tried
17:58to say well look you know because most
18:00people speak Russia there as the lingua
18:01Franca I mean in the northeast of
18:03England because everyone spoke English
18:04but lots of people were Irish speakers
18:06you know garlic Irish speakers or you
18:08know some of them might have um
18:09certainly been Welsh speakers there was
18:11lots of Welsh miners who spoke Welsh as
18:13their first language who came there you
18:15know but they but they created a an
18:16identity it's the same in Belfast in
18:19Ulster you know the northern province of
18:21um of the you know the whole of the
18:23Irish Island another part of Ireland
18:26that is still part of the United Kingdom
18:28that was also a heavily industrialized
18:30area
18:31um High manufacturing Mass manufacturing
18:35shipbuilding for example people came
18:37from all over there too which is why
18:39when Ireland uh got its independence in
18:42the United Kingdom
18:43Ulster Belfast and that whole region you
18:47know kind of clung on because it was
18:48again that Melting Pot it was kind of
18:50intertwined with the larger industrial
18:53economy and had a very different
18:55identity and so that you know for me
18:57growing up in such a specific place with
19:00such a
19:02special in many respects Heritage gave
19:05me a different perspective on things
19:07when I first went to the Soviet Union in
19:081987 to study there I actually went to a
19:11translators Institute what was then
19:13called The Morris serez which is now the
19:15Institute of foreign languages
19:18um I was immediately struck by how
19:20similar everything was to the north of
19:22England
19:23because it was just like one big book in
19:25class culture that sort of broken out
19:26onto the national stage everything in
19:28northern England was nationalized
19:30we had British steel British coal
19:32British Rail British shipbuilding
19:34because after World War II the private
19:36sector had been devastated and the state
19:38had to step in and of course the Soviet
19:40Union is one great big giant
19:42nationalized economy when I get there
19:44and it's just the people's attitudes and
19:46outlooks are the same people didn't work
19:48for themselves they always worked for
19:49somebody else and it had a quite a a
19:52distortion on the way that people looked
19:54at the world do you still speak Russian
19:56I do yeah
20:04it would be a big mystery for everybody
20:06and you have an advantage on me because
20:08your native language as well for people
20:09wondering the the English speakers in
20:12the audience you're really missing a lot
20:13from the few sentences we said there
20:16um yeah it's it's a fascinating language
20:18that stretches actually geographically
20:21across a very large part of this world
20:23so there you are in 1987 an exchange
20:26student in the Soviet Union what was
20:28that world like well that was was
20:31absolutely fascinating in that period
20:33because it's the period
20:35That's just around the time of the peak
20:37of perestroika and mikhil Gorbachev's uh
20:41role as president
20:43um while he wasn't quite present at that
20:44point it's all Secretary General of the
20:46Communist part of the Soviet Union
20:47trying to transform the whole place
20:50so I arrived there in September of 1987.
20:54just as Gorbachev and Reagan sign the
20:58INF treaty just within you know kind of
21:01weeks of them about to sign that which
21:03really ends that whole period that had
21:04shaped my entire teenage years of the
21:07end of the euromissile crisis by finally
21:10having agreement on you know basically
21:12the reduction and constraints on
21:13intermediate nuclear forces
21:15and also at this point Gorbachev is
21:18opening the Soviet Union up so we got
21:21all kinds of opportunities to travel in
21:23ways that we wouldn't have done before
21:25um not just you know in Moscow which is
21:27where I was studying its translates into
21:28people to the Caucasus to Central Asia I
21:31went all the way to uh habarovsk in the
21:33the Russian Far East all the way around
21:35you know kind of Moscow and there was at
21:38this point it was also the uh Krish
21:41which has become very important now this
21:43is the anniversary the thousandth
21:45anniversary of the christianization of
21:48um of Russia which of course has become
21:51a massive Obsession of Vladimir Putin's
21:54but you know 988 because I was there 87
21:57to 88 and at this point the Russian
21:59Orthodox Church is undergoing a Revival
22:01from being repressed during the Soviet
22:03period you suddenly have the church
22:04stepping out as a non-governmental
22:07organization and engaging in discussions
22:09with people about the future of religion
22:12uh so that
22:13um was you know something that I wasn't
22:16expecting to to witness
22:18also I mean being in Moscow this is the
22:21cultural capital of a vast Empire at
22:23this point I'd never lived in a major
22:24city before it's the first big city I
22:26lived in I'd never been to the Opera you
22:28know I I the first time I got an opera
22:31it's at the ball joy and I'd never seen
22:33a ballet I mean I was not exactly
22:34steeped in high classical culture when
22:37you're kind of growing up in a in a
22:38mining region you know there's very
22:40limited opportunities for this kind of
22:42thing I've been in an abuse Orchestra
22:44and a used choir my parents signed me up
22:45property everything you know they
22:46possibly could education wise but it
22:48wasn't exactly any exposure to this so
22:51you know I was kind of a standard by the
22:53sort of wealth of the cultural
22:55experience that one could have in Moscow
22:56but the main thing was I was really
22:58struck by how the Soviet Union was on
23:01its last legs because this was Moscow
23:03you know I got this image about what it
23:06would look like I was quite to be honest
23:08terrified at first about what I would
23:10see there if you know the big nuclear
23:11superpower and as soon as I got there it
23:13was just this like as if a huge weight
23:14that I'd been carrying around for years
23:16in my teenage years just disappeared
23:18because it's just ordinary people in
23:19ordinary players not doing great this is
23:22the period
23:23of you know what they call deficit you
23:26know so the period of deficits but
23:27there's no food in the shops there was
23:29you know very little in terms of
23:30Commodities because the
23:33um supply and demand parts of the
23:35economic equation were out of whack
23:36because there's a total Central planning
23:38you know you'd go into you know a shop
23:40that was supposed to sell boots and
23:42there'd be just one pile of boots all in
23:45the same size in the same color I
23:47actually looked out because once I was
23:48in this um Hungarian boot shop that was
23:51right next to where my hall of residence
23:54was and I was looking for new pair of
23:55boots and every single pair of boots in
23:57the shop were my size
23:58and they're all women's boots they're
23:59not men's boots at all you know because
24:01if it's been a nervous supply of boots
24:02and that size production but you could
24:05really kind of see here that there was
24:06something wrong and you know in the
24:07north of England everything was closed
24:09down the shops were shuttered because
24:10there was no demand because everybody
24:11lost their jobs it was massive
24:13employment you know when I went off to
24:15University in 1984 90 youth unemployment
24:18in the UK meaning that when kids left
24:21school they didn't have something else
24:22to go on to unless they got to
24:23University or vocational training or an
24:25apprenticeship and most people were
24:26still looking you know kind of months
24:28out of leaving school and so shops were
24:31closing because people didn't have any
24:32money you know I had 50 male
24:34unemployment in some of the towns as
24:37there's still works closed down and the
24:39the wagon works for the railways for
24:41example in my area but in Moscow people
24:43in theory did have money but there was
24:45just there was nothing to buy the also
24:47the place was falling apart literally I
24:49saw massive sinkholes open up in the
24:51street balconies fall off buildings you
24:53know one accident after another
24:55and then there was you know this real
24:57kind of sense even though the vibrancy
24:59and excitement and hope of the Gorbachev
25:01period a real sense of the the Soviet
25:03Union had lost its way and of course it
25:05was only a year or so after I left from
25:09that Exchange program and I'd already
25:10started with my degree program in Soviet
25:14studies at talford that the Soviet Union
25:16basically unraveled and it really did
25:18unravel it wasn't like it collapsed it
25:21was basically that there were so many
25:22debates that garbage offered sparked off
25:25about how to reform the country how to
25:26put it on a different path that you know
25:29no one was in agreement and it was
25:30basically all these fights and uh deep
25:33debates and disputes among the elites of
25:35the center as well as you know basically
25:38a loss of faith in the system in the
25:40periphery and among the general
25:42population that in fact pulled it apart
25:44and of course in 1991
25:48you get um
25:50Boris Yeltsin as the head of the Russian
25:52Federation then a constituent part of
25:54the Soviet Union together with the
25:56presidents of Ukraine and Belarus all of
25:59these being individual
26:01parts of the Soviet Union getting
26:03together and agreeing and essentially
26:05ending it and gorbachevino so basically
26:07I'm there at the the peak of this whole
26:09kind of period of experimentation and
26:10thinking about the future and within a
26:12couple of years it's all kind of gone
26:14and it's on a different track entirely
26:15well I wonder if we re-ran the 20th
26:18century a thousand times if how many
26:22times the Soviet Union will collapse
26:25yeah I wonder about that too and I also
26:26wondered about what would have happened
26:27if it didn't collapse and Gorbachev had
26:29found a different direction
26:31I mean you know we see a very divisive
26:33time now in American history the United
26:36States of America has very different
26:39cultures very different uh beliefs
26:42ideologies within those States but those
26:44are that's that's kind of the strength
26:46of America's there's these little
26:47Laboratories of ideas until though that
26:51they don't keep together I mean I've had
26:52colleagues who have described what's
26:53happening in the west right now was a
26:55kind of soft secession with States you
26:57know going off in their own Direction
27:01well you know these kinds of conceptions
27:04that we have now are divisions between
27:05red and blue States because of the
27:07fracturing of our politics
27:09and I'd always thought that that
27:10wouldn't be possible in somewhere like
27:12the United States or um you know many
27:14other countries as well because it
27:15wasn't that ethnic
27:17um uh Dimension but in fact many of our
27:20the way that people talk about politics
27:22has given it that kind of appearance in
27:24many respects because look I mean we
27:26know from the Soviet Union and the
27:28Soviet period and from where you're from
27:30you know originally in Ukraine that
27:32language is not the man to signify of
27:34identity and that identity can take all
27:37kinds of of other forms that's really
27:40interesting I mean but
27:42there has to be a deep grievance of some
27:44kind if you took a poll in any other
27:47states in the United States I think a
27:49very small minority people would want to
27:51actually succeed uh even in Texas where
27:54I spend a lot of my time yeah
27:56I I just I think that there is a common
27:59kind of pride of nation
28:02you know there's a a lot of people
28:04complain about government and about how
28:08the country's going the way people
28:10complain about the weather when it's
28:12raining they say oh this stupid weather
28:13it's raining again but really what they
28:16mean is
28:17we're in the smoke together there's a
28:20together there that I I also feel that
28:23when I go around because I mean I've
28:24spent a lot of time since I've
28:26um my book my book last October and this
28:28last year going around I find I find the
28:30same feeling but you know when I
28:32traveled around the Soviet Union
28:34back in the late 1980s I didn't get any
28:36kind of sense that people wanted to see
28:38the end of the Soviet Union either it
28:40was an elite project
28:42there's a a really good book called
28:44Collapse by vladislav zubuck who is a
28:47professor
28:49um at um London School of Economics at
28:52LLC and zubock is pretty much my age and
28:56he's from you know the former Soviet
28:57Union is Russian and I mean he describes
28:59it very quite aptly about how it was
29:01kind of the elites you know that
29:03basically decided to pull the Soviet
29:05Union apart and there was a risk of that
29:07you know here as well when you get
29:08parties on politics and people
29:10forgetting you know they're Americans
29:12and they are all in this together like a
29:13lot of the population thing but they
29:15think that their own you know narrower
29:16parties aren't ideological precepts you
29:19know camp for more and in the Civic case
29:22of course was also a power play
29:24you know in a way that actually can't
29:26quite play out in the United States
29:28because it was the equivalent of
29:29Governors in many respects who got
29:32together three of them you know in the
29:33case of
29:35um the heads of Russia Ukraine and
29:37Belarus who then you know got rid of you
29:40know the basically their Central
29:42um the central figure of Michael
29:44Gorbachev it would be a little difficult
29:46to do that the dynamic is not the same
29:48but it does worry me of having seen all
29:50of that close up
29:52in the late 1980s and the early 90s and
29:56I was I spent you know a lot of time in
29:58the uh in Russia uh as well as in
30:01Ukraine and caucus and Central Asia and
30:03you know other places after the collapse
30:04of the Soviet Union but that you you
30:06kind of see the same Elite divisions
30:09here in the United States pulling
30:11in you know in different uh in different
30:14directions and straining you know the
30:15overall body politic and the way that
30:17National politics gets imposed on local
30:21politics and where's that it certainly
30:23wasn't when I first came to the US in
30:251989 I didn't honestly in 1989 when I
30:27first came here I didn't know anybody's
30:28political affiliation I mean I rarely
30:30knew their religious affiliation and and
30:33you know obviously race was a was a
30:35major phenomenon here that was a shock
30:36to me when I when I first came but many
30:39of the kind of the class Regional
30:41Geographic you know kind of political
30:43Dimensions that I've seen in other
30:45places I didn't see them at play in the
30:47same way then as I do now
30:50and you take a lot of Pride to this day
30:53of being nonpartisan
30:56that said
30:58so you served uh
31:00for the George W bush Barack Obama and
31:02Donald Trump Administrations
31:04uh always specializing
31:07in uh Eurasia and Russia
31:11you were the top presidential advisor to
31:13president
31:14former president Donald Trump on Russia
31:16and Europe and famously testified in his
31:20first impeachment trial in uh 2019
31:24saying
31:26I take great pride in the fact that I'm
31:28nonpartisan foreign policy expert so
31:31given that context what does nonpartisan
31:34mean to you
31:36well it means being very careful about
31:37not putting any kind of ideological lens
31:39on anything you know that I'm analyzing
31:42and looking at or saying about foreign
31:43policy for one thing but also not taking
31:46you know kind of one stance of one party
31:48over another either to be honest I've
31:50I've always found American politics
31:53somewhat confounding because both the
31:55Democratic and the Republican Party are
31:57pretty big tents some of their
31:58coalitions you know in Europe it's
32:00actually kind of in some respects easier
32:03to navigate the parameters of political
32:05parties because you you know have quite
32:06clear platforms
32:08um you know there's also a longer
32:09history in many respects obviously I
32:11mean there's a long history here in the
32:12United States as a development of the
32:13parties you know going back to the late
32:1518th century but in the United Kingdom
32:18you know for example in the 20th century
32:19the development of the mass parties you
32:21know it's quite easy to get a handle on
32:23you know at one point in the UK for
32:25example the parties were real genuine
32:27Mass parties with people who are
32:29properly members and took part in
32:30regular meetings and Paid Dues and you
32:33know it was easy to kind of see what
32:34they stood for and the same in Europe
32:36you know when you look at France and in
32:38Germany and Western Germany of course
32:40Italy and elsewhere here in the United
32:42States it's kind of pretty amorphous you
32:45know the fact that you could kind of
32:46register you know randomly it seems to
32:48be a democratic Republican I trumped it
32:50at one point is Democrat next thing is
32:52Republican and then you kind of usurp a
32:54party apparatus but you don't have to be
32:56you're not vetted in any way you're not
32:58kind of you know but they don't check
33:00you out to see if you have ideological
33:02coherence you know you could have
33:03someone like Bernie Sanders on the other
33:05side on the left you know basically
33:07calling himself a socialist and you know
33:09running for the the Democratic uh
33:11presidential nomination so you know kind
33:14of in many respects parties in the
33:16United States are much more loose
33:18movements and I think you can you know
33:20it's almost like a kind of an A La Carte
33:21menu of different things and that people
33:24can pick upon pick out and it's more
33:27over time as I've noticed
33:29um become more like a kind of an
33:31affiliation even with a sporting team I
33:33mean I get very shocked by the way that
33:35people say well I couldn't do this
33:36because you know that's my side and I
33:39couldn't do anything and I couldn't
33:40support someone for the other side I
33:41mean I have a a relative in my extended
33:44family here who
33:46um is a
33:48um you know died in the more Republican
33:49and on you know family holiday there's a
33:53book on their table said 100 reasons for
33:55voting for a Democrat and I said hey are
33:57you um thinking of Shifting party
33:58affiliation then I opened the book and
34:00it's blank it was pretty funny I had to
34:02laugh I thought well there you go then
34:04there's just there's no way that you
34:06know people can pull themselves out of
34:08these frames so for me it's very
34:09important to have that independence of
34:11thought I think you can be politically
34:13engaged on the issues but you know
34:16basically without taking you know a
34:19stance that's defined by some
34:21ideological ideology or some sense of
34:23kind of parties on affiliation
34:25I think I tweeted about this maybe not
34:28eloquently in the statement if I
34:30remember correctly was something like
34:33if you honestly can't find a good thing
34:37that Donald Trump did or a good thing
34:39that Joe Biden did
34:41you're not
34:43uh you're not thinking about ideas
34:46you just picked the tribe I mean it was
34:49more eloquent than that but it was it
34:50was um is basically this is a really
34:53good test to see are you actually
34:55thinking about like how to solve
34:58problems versus like your dread team or
35:00blue team like a sporting team can you
35:03find a good idea of Donald Trump's that
35:06you like
35:07if you're somebody who's against Donald
35:09Trump and like acknowledge it to
35:12yourself probably oh that's a good idea
35:14I'm glad he said that or he's even
35:16asking the right kinds of questions
35:18which he often often actually I mean
35:19obviously put them in a way that most of
35:21us wouldn't have done but there was
35:23often kind of questions about why is
35:24this happening why are we doing this and
35:25you know we have to challenge ourselves
35:27all the time so yeah actually why are we
35:29doing that and then you have to and
35:31really inspect it and say whether it's
35:33actually worth continuing that way or
35:34they should be doing something
35:35differently now he had a more kind of
35:37destructive quality to those kinds of
35:39questions you know about maybe it's the
35:41real estate developer in him that's you
35:43know taking a big wrecking ball to all
35:44of these kinds of you know sacred
35:46edifices and things like that but often
35:48if you really paid attention he was
35:50asking a valid set of questions about
35:52why do we continue to do things like
35:53this now we didn't often have answers
35:55about what he was going to do in
35:56response but those questions still had
35:58to be asked and we shouldn't be just
36:00rejecting them you know out of turn
36:02and you know the the another strength
36:05the thing that people often that
36:08criticize Donald Trump will say is the
36:09weakness is his uh lack of Civility
36:14can be a strength because I I feel like
36:16sometimes bureaucracy functions on
36:19excessive civility
36:21like uh actually I've seen this it's not
36:23just it's bureaucracy in all forms like
36:26um
36:26in tech companies as they grow
36:29everybody kind of you know you're
36:31getting pretty good salary everyone's is
36:33everyone's comfortable and there's a
36:36meeting and you discuss
36:38how to move stuff forward and like you
36:42don't want to be the in the room
36:43that says what this is why are we doing
36:46this this way this is
36:49um on this could be unethical this is
36:51hurting the world this is totally a dumb
36:54idea like I mean I could give specific
36:56examples that I have on my mind
36:58currently that are technical but the
37:00point is oftentimes the person that's
37:02needed in that room is an yeah
37:04that's why Steve Jobs worked so Elon
37:06Musk works you have to roll in that's
37:08what first principles thinking looks
37:09like the one bit when it doesn't work is
37:11when they start name calling you know
37:13kind of inciting violence against you
37:14know the people that we disagree with so
37:16that was kind of a problem because I
37:17mean often one you know I when I was in
37:19the administration I had all of Europe
37:22in my portfolio as well as Russia and
37:24there were many times when you know we
37:26were dealing with our European
37:27colleagues where he was asking some
37:29pretty valid questions about well why
37:32should we do this if you're doing that
37:33you know for example the the Nordstrom 2
37:36pipeline the United States has been
37:38opposed to Europe's Reliance on gas and
37:40oil exports from uh Russia you know the
37:43Soviet Union since the 70s and 80s and
37:46Trump kept pushing this out idea about
37:47so why are we you know spending so much
37:50money on NATO and NATO defense and we're
37:52all talking about this if y'all then you
37:55know basically paying billions you know
37:57to Russia for gas isn't this you know
37:59contradictory and of course it was but
38:01it was the way that he did it and I
38:03actually uh you know one instance had a
38:05discussion with a European Defense uh
38:08Minister who basically said to me look
38:10he's saying exactly the same things as
38:12people said before him including you
38:14know Former Defense secretary Gates it's
38:16just the way he says it you know so they
38:18took offense and then as a result of
38:19that they wouldn't take action because
38:21they took offense at what he said so it
38:23was a kind of then a way of could you
38:25find some other means of
38:28you know massaging this communication to
38:31kind of make it effective which we would
38:32always try to focus on because it's it's
38:35a kind of the it was the the delivery
38:37yeah but but the actual message was was
38:39often spot on or in those kinds of
38:42issues I mean he was actually
38:43highlighting you know these ridiculous
38:45discrepancies between what people said
38:47and what they actually did
38:49it's the the delivery the Charisma in
38:52the room too I'm also understanding the
38:55power of that of a leader it's not just
38:58about what you do at a podium
39:00but in in a room with advisors how you
39:04talk about stuff how you convince other
39:05leaders yeah you don't do it through
39:07gratuities insults and excitement to
39:09violence that's one of the things you
39:10just say you don't get anywhere on that
39:11well I mean it's possible
39:14tough measures and maximum pressure
39:16often though it does work right because
39:18there were you know often times where
39:20you know that kind of Relentless you
39:23know nagging about something are
39:24constantly raising it actually did have
39:26results where it hadn't previously right
39:28so there's you know the maximum pressure
39:31if it you know kind of kept on it in the
39:33right way and you know often when we
39:34were you know coming in behind on
39:36pushing on issues you know related to
39:38Nato or you know other
39:40things in this same sphere it would
39:43actually have an effect
39:45it just doesn't get talked about because
39:46it gets overshadowed by you know all of
39:50the other kind of stuff around this and
39:52um the way that you know he interacted
39:53with people and uh treated people
39:57what was uh the heart the key insights
39:59to your testimony and that impeachment
40:02look I think there is a straight line
40:05between that whole series of episodes
40:08and the current war in Ukraine
40:10because Vladimir Putin and the people
40:12around him in the Kremlin
40:14concluded that the US did not care one
40:16little bit about Ukraine and it was just
40:18a game
40:19the trumpet was personal game he was
40:21basically trying to get
40:23Vladimir zielinsky to do him a personal
40:25favor related to his desire to stay on
40:28in um in power
40:31in the 2020 election
40:33and generally they just thought that we
40:35were using Ukraine as some kind of proxy
40:37or some kind of instrument within our
40:39own domestic Politics as that's what it
40:41looked like
40:42and I think that he knows the result of
40:44that
40:44Putin you know took
40:47the idea where that he could you know do
40:50whatever he wanted we were constantly
40:51being asked even prior to this by people
40:54around
40:56uh Putin like you know Nikolai Patricia
40:59of the head of the national you know
41:00security uh Council equivalent in Russia
41:03we met with frequently what's Ukraine to
41:05you we don't get it you know why do you
41:06even care so they thought that we
41:08weren't serious that we weren't serious
41:10about Ukraine's territorial integrity
41:12and its independence or or it is the
41:15National Security player and Putin also
41:17thought that he could just manipulate
41:19the political space in the United States
41:21actually could because what was he was
41:23doing was seeding uh all this dissent
41:26and uh fueling you know already uh in a
41:30debate inside of uh U.S politics the
41:33kinds of you know things that we see
41:35just kind of coming out now this kind of
41:37idea that Ukraine was a burden that
41:39Ukraine was you know basically just
41:41trying to extract things uh from the
41:43United States the Ukraine had somehow
41:45played inside of U.S politics Trump was
41:48convinced that the ukrainians had done
41:50something against him that they had
41:51intervened in the elections and that was
41:53kind of you know a combination of people
41:55around him trying to find excuses to you
41:58know kind of what had happened in the
42:00election to kind of divert attention
42:01away from Russia's interference in 2016
42:04and the Russians themselves poisoning
42:06the world uh against Ukraine so you had
42:08a kind of a Confluence of circumstances
42:10there and what I was trying to get
42:12across
42:14in that uh testimony was the National
42:16Security imperative of basically getting
42:19our act together here and separating out
42:21what was going on in our domestic
42:22politics from what was happening in our
42:25national security and foreign policy I
42:27mean I think we contributed
42:29in that whole mess around the
42:32impeachment but just the whole parallel
42:34policies around Ukraine to the war that
42:37we now have
42:39confronting signaling the value we place
42:43in peace and stability in that part of
42:45the world or the reverse by saying we
42:47don't care yeah we seem to not care it
42:48was just
42:49but I mean the the U.S role in that war
42:53is very complicated one that's one one
42:56that's one of the variables
42:58um just on that testimony
43:02did it
43:04in part break your heart that you had to
43:06testify
43:08essentially against the president of the
43:10United States
43:11or is that not how you saw it
43:15I don't think I would describe it in
43:17that way I think what I was was deeply
43:20disappointed by what I saw happening
43:24in the American political space I didn't
43:28expect it
43:29look I was a starry-eyed immigrant
43:32I came to the United States with all of
43:34these expectations of what the place
43:36would be I'd already been disabused of
43:38you know some of the
43:40um let's just say Rosie uh perspectives
43:43are held in the United States I'd been
43:44shocked by uh the depths of
43:49racial
43:50problems it doesn't even sum up the
43:53problems we have in the United States I
43:54mean I I couldn't get my head around it
43:56when I first came I mean I'd read about
43:58you know slavery in American history but
44:00I hadn't fully fathomed you know really
44:02the kind of the way that was ripping
44:04apart the United States I mean I had to
44:06read Alex's you know to talk Phil and
44:07he'd commented on this and it obviously
44:09hadn't you know kind of changed to the
44:10expect the way that one would have
44:12expect all this time you know from the
44:1318th you know Century onwards so that
44:15was kind of one thing that you know that
44:17I realized the Civil Rights uh movement
44:19and all of these you know acts of
44:21expansion of suffrage and everything
44:23else were imperfect at best you know and
44:25I was born in 65 the same same time as
44:27the Civil Rights Act it was heck of a
44:29long way still to go so I wasn't let's
44:30just say you know as
44:33Starry Eyed about everything as I'd been
44:34before but I really saw an incredible
44:36competence and professionalism in you
44:38know the US government it was gonna and
44:40the election system and the Integrity of
44:42it and I mean I really saw that I saw
44:44that the the United States was the gold
44:46standard for you know kind of some of
44:48its you know institutions and I worked
44:49in the National Intelligence Council and
44:51I'd seen the way that the United States
44:52had tried to address the problems that
44:54it had um at first and it was just whole
44:57botched uh analysis of Iraq and this
45:01terrible strategic blunder of
45:03um honestly a crime in my view of
45:06invading Iraq and but the way that
45:08people were trying to to deal with that
45:10in the aftermath I mean I went into the
45:12National Intelligence Council and the
45:13dni the director the officer Director of
45:16National Intelligence when they were
45:17coming to terms with what had gone wrong
45:18in the whole analysis about Iraq in 2003
45:22you know in the whole work of people
45:23trying to pull together after 9 11 and
45:25to learn all of the lessons from all of
45:27this and I saw you know just really
45:29genuine striving and deliberation about
45:31what had gone wrong what lesson could we
45:33learn from this and then suddenly I
45:36found myself in this I couldn't
45:39redescribe another word it's totally
45:40crazy locking glass thinking of you know
45:42Alice in Wonderland Alice Through the
45:43Looking Glass version
45:45of American politics
45:47I mean I'd seen everything starting to
45:49unravel over a kind of a period of time
45:51before I'd been asked to be in the
45:52administration but I did not expect it
45:54to be that bad I honestly didn't
45:56I mean I had been warned you know by
45:57people that this was you know kind of
46:00really a very serious term that the
46:03United States had taken but I really
46:04thought that National Security would
46:06still be uppermost in people's minds and
46:08it was when a lot of the people that I
46:10work with but what I found you know if
46:12you want to use that in a term of
46:15heartbreaking was the way in which all
46:18of these principles
46:19but I uh really bought into and tried to
46:24uphold in the United States uh
46:25government and then the things that we
46:27were trying to do with me and my
46:28colleagues was just being thrown out the
46:30window
46:31and that you know I would have to step
46:32up
46:33in defense of them and in defense of my
46:35colleagues who were being lambasted and
46:37you know criticized and given death
46:39threats were actually standing up and
46:40doing their own jobs in particular on
46:42the topic of Ukraine uh not just on
46:44Ukraine but a national security overall
46:46so I mean I'd gone through this whole
46:47period even before we got to that point
46:49I'm seeing non-partisan government
46:52officials being attacked from all sides
46:55left and right and but especially the
46:57right and being basically accused of
47:00being partisan hacks in a deep State yes
47:03coup plotters you know you name it
47:05they're um
47:06patriotism being questioned as well I
47:10know a lot of people I work with in
47:11government like myself naturalized
47:12Americans a lot of them are immigrants
47:13many were refugees and many people had
47:16fought and and was uh on behalf of the
47:18United States and Iraq and Afghanistan
47:20being blown up and you know they put
47:23their lives on the line they'd put their
47:25family lives on the line you know
47:27because they believed in America and
47:28they were just they were reflections of
47:30Americans from all kinds of works of
47:32works of life is what really made you
47:34know that cliche of America great it
47:36wasn't you know whatever it was it was
47:38being you know banded around in these
47:39crude crass political terms it was just
47:42the strength of an incredible set of
47:43people who've come together from all
47:45kinds of places and decided that they're
47:47going to make a go of it and that
47:49they're going to you know try to work
47:51towards the whole bit of idea of the
47:53Preamble of the Constitution towards a
47:55more perfect union and I you know I saw
47:56people doing that every single day
47:58despite all of the things that they
47:59could criticize about the United States
48:01still believing in what they were doing
48:02and believing in the promise of the
48:04country which is what I felt like and
48:05then here we were people would just
48:07treating it like a game and they were
48:09treating people like dirt and they were
48:11just playing games with people's lives I
48:13mean we all had death threats you know
48:15people's you know whole careers which
48:17were not just careers for their own
48:18self-aggrandizement but for careers of
48:21Public Service trying to give something
48:22back were being shattered
48:25and I've found you know I just thought
48:26to myself I'm not gonna let that happen
48:28because you know I've come from well
48:30they're going to send me back to Bishop
48:32Auckland in County Durham fine I'm
48:34totally fine to go back you know because
48:35I could do something back there but I'm
48:37not going to let this happen I've made
48:38this choice to come to America I'm all
48:40in
48:41and and these guys are just behaving
48:43like a bunch of idiots and the ruining
48:45us you know they're ruining it for
48:46everybody so the personal attacks and
48:48uncompetent hard-working passionate
48:51people who have loved what they do in
48:53their heart similar stuff I've seen
48:56for virologists and biologists so
48:59colleagues basically scientists in the
49:01time of covid when there's a bunch of
49:03cynicism and there was just personal
49:05attacks including death threats on uh
49:08people that's that you know work on
49:10viruses work yeah are they going around
49:12you know but basically
49:14um with protective gear on okay somebody
49:16shoots them in the street that's just
49:18absurd but
49:20let me zoom out from the individual
49:22people yeah and actually look at the
49:27situations that we saw in the
49:30in the
49:32the George W bush Obama and Donald Trump
49:35presidencies
49:37and I'd like to sort of criticize each
49:42uh by the not the the treatment of
49:45individual people but by the results
49:46right yeah I think that's fair yeah so
49:49if you look at George W bush and maybe
49:51you can give me insights this is what's
49:53fascinating to me when you have
49:55extremely competent
49:57uh smart hard-working
50:00well-intentioned people how do we as a
50:04system uh make mistakes in foreign
50:07policy so the big mistake uh you can
50:12characterize in different ways but in
50:13George W bush is invading Iraq yeah or
50:17maybe how it was invaded or maybe how
50:19the decision process was made to invade
50:22it uh again Afghanistan but
50:25but maybe not the invasion but details
50:28around like having a plan about you know
50:32how to withdraw all that kind of stuff
50:34then Barack Obama
50:36to me similarly is is the man who came
50:41to fame early on for being somebody who
50:45was against a rare voice against the
50:48invasion of Iraq which was actually a a
50:51brief thing to do at that time
50:54and nevertheless he and I mean I don't
50:57know the numbers but I think he was the
51:01president for eight years over increased
51:04drone attacks increa like ever
51:07everything from a foreign policy
51:09perspective uh the the
51:12military-industrial complex that machine
51:15grew in power under him not shrunk and
51:20did not withdraw
51:21from Afghanistan and then
51:25um with Donald Trump the criticisms that
51:28you're presenting sort of uh the the
51:30personal attacks the chaos the
51:33partisanship of people that are supposed
51:36to be nonpartisan so that you know if
51:39you do sort of the Steel Man the chaos
51:41to to make the case for chaos maybe we
51:45need to shake up the machine
51:47throw a wrench into the engine into the
51:50gears and then every individual gear is
51:53going to be very upset with that because
51:55it's the wrench it's not it's not it's
51:57an inefficient process but maybe it
51:58leads uh for government it forces the
52:02the system as a whole not the
52:04individuals but the system to reconsider
52:06how things are done so obviously all of
52:09those things
52:10uh the actual results are not that
52:12impressive
52:14could have done that on the
52:16lot I'm all one for Quest and trying to
52:18shake things up as well and do things
52:19different
52:20stuff but but you know the question is
52:22if you bring the whole system down with
52:24nothing ideas of putting it to play it's
52:26like I mean I'm like many people I've
52:27studied the Bolshevik Revolution and you
52:29know many others as well and you know
52:30kind of what's what you know what's the
52:32pattern here you know that actually fits
52:34into what you're talking about here is
52:36the kind of rigidity of thought on the
52:37part of revolutionaries in many cases as
52:39well and also narcissism
52:41in fact I think it takes a pretty you
52:43know strong sense of yourself you know
52:45kind of and owning yourself to want to
52:47be present in the United States for
52:48example we see that in you know many of
52:50our presidents have been narcissists to
52:52different you know kind of degrees you
52:53think about Lenin you know for example
52:55and people can go back and read about
52:57Lenin he formed his views about 18 and
53:00he never shook them off he never evolved
53:02he he didn't have any kind of diversity
53:05of thought
53:06and on when systems go awry it's when
53:09they don't bring in different
53:10perspectives
53:11and so you know Trump have you brought
53:14in different perspectives and actually
53:15listen to them and not just you know
53:16believe that he himself knew better than
53:17anyone else and then tried to divide
53:19everybody against each other would have
53:20been a different matter it's a tragedy
53:22of a completely and utterly lost set of
53:24opportunities because of the flaws in
53:26his own nature
53:28because I mean again there was all kinds
53:29of things that he could have done to
53:30shake things up and so many people
53:32around him remained completely
53:34disappointed and of course he divided
53:35and pitted people against each other you
53:37know creating so much factionalism in
53:39American politics that you know people
53:41have forgotten they're Americans they
53:42think that they're red or blue you know
53:44parts of teams and you know if you go
53:46back over history that's a kind of a
53:47recipe for for war and you know internal
53:49conflict you go back to you know the
53:51Byzantine empire for example there's a
53:53famous episode of the Nikki riots uh in
53:57uh Constantinople where the whole city
54:00gets trashed because the greens the Reds
54:03the blues and these various sporting
54:05teams in the Hippodrome get whipped up
54:07by political forces and the you know
54:09they pull the place apart and that's you
54:10know kind of where we've been heading on
54:12some of these trajectories but the other
54:13point is when you look back you know at
54:16Bush and a bummer as well there's a very
54:18narrow circle of decision making you
54:20know Bush period it's the focus on the
54:22executive branch
54:23um with uh Dick Cheney is the vice
54:25president being very fixated on it and
54:27Obama it's you know he and you know kind
54:29of the Bright Young things around him
54:31you know from himself as you know kind
54:34of intellectually
54:36um you know one might uh say arrogance
54:38in many respects you know he was very
54:40smart guy and you know he's convinced
54:42that he has and he ruminates over all
54:44things but he's the person who makes you
54:46know a lot of decisions
54:47and
54:49um basically George W bush used to call
54:51himself the decider as well right I mean
54:52they're all the people who make the
54:54decisions it's not always as
54:55consultative as you might think it is
54:57and for Trump it's like I'm not
54:58listening to anybody at all you know
55:00it's just me and whatever it is that I'm
55:01walking up today and I've decided to do
55:03so I think you know the problem with all
55:05of our systems why we don't get results
55:06is because we don't draw upon you know
55:09the diversity of opinion and all the
55:11ideas of you know people out there like
55:12you do that in science I mean one I mean
55:15all my friends and relatives are in
55:17science they've got this incredible
55:18collaborations with people you know
55:20across the world I mean how did we get
55:22to these vaccines for the curve advice
55:24because of this incredible years of
55:26collaboration and of you know sharing
55:28results and sharing on ideas and our
55:31whole system has become ossified you
55:34know we think about the Congressional
55:35system for example as well and there's
55:37you know this kind of Rapid you know
55:39turnover that you have in uh Congress
55:40every two years you know there's no
55:42incentive for people you know basically
55:44to work with others they're constantly
55:45campaigning they're constantly trying to
55:47appeal so whatever their base is and
55:49they don't really care about you know
55:50some do you know of their constituents
55:53but a lot of people don't and the Senate
55:55it's all kind of focused on the game of
55:57uh of legislation uh for so many people
56:00as well not focusing again on that kind
56:03of sense about what are we doing like
56:04scientists to kind of work together you
56:06know for the good of the country to push
56:07things along and also our government
56:09also is siled there's not a lot of
56:13mechanisms for bringing people together
56:14they ought to be in things like the
56:16National Security Council the National
56:17Intelligence Council actually did that
56:19quite successfully at times for analysis
56:21that I saw but we don't have you know we
56:24have it within the National Institutes
56:25of Health but we saw the CDC breakdown
56:27on this you know kind of front we we
56:30don't have sufficient of those
56:31institutions that bring people together
56:33from all kinds of different backgrounds
56:35you know one of the other problems that
56:36we've had with government with the
56:38federal government over you know state
56:41and local government is it actually
56:43quite small people think that the
56:44federal government's huge because we've
56:46got personal service in the military
56:47tree that are part of it but your actual
56:49federal government employees is a very
56:51small number
56:52and you know the senior executive
56:55service part of that is the older white
56:56guys you know who kind of come up all
56:58the way over the last you know several
57:00decades we have a really hard time
57:02bringing in younger people into that
57:04kind of government service and that's
57:05their political hacks you know and they
57:07want to you know kind of or they're kind
57:09of looking for power and you know sort
57:10of influence
57:11we have a hard time getting people like
57:13yourself and other you know younger
57:14people kind of coming in
57:16to make a career out of public service
57:18and also retaining them because you know
57:21people with Incredible skills often get
57:25poached away into the private sector and
57:27you know a lot of the people that I work
57:28with the National Security side are now
57:30what all kinds of you know high-end uh
57:34political consultancies or they've gone
57:36to Silicon Valley and they've they've
57:38gone to this place in that place because
57:40after a time as a younger person they're
57:42not you know rising up particularly
57:44quickly because there's a pretty rigid
57:45way of looking at the the hierarchies
57:48and the promotion schemes and they're
57:49also getting lambasted by everybody
57:51people like ah you know public servants
57:53they're not really public servants
57:54there's this whole lack and loss
57:58um of a kind of a faith in public
57:59service
58:01and you know the last few years I've
58:02really done a lot of damage we need to
58:05revitalize
58:06uh our government system to get better
58:08results we need to bring more people in
58:10even if it's you know for a period of
58:11time not just through expensive
58:14contracts for you know the the big
58:16Consulting companies and you know other
58:18entities that do government work out
58:21there but getting into people in for a
58:22period of time expending expanding some
58:24of these management fellowships and the
58:27White House fellows and you know
58:29bringing in you know scientists uh you
58:31know from the outside giving you know
58:33that that kind of opportunity for
58:35collaboration that we see in other
58:37spheres I think that's actually one of
58:39the biggest roles
58:40for a president that
58:42for some reason during the election
58:44that's never talked about is how good
58:47are you at hiring yeah and and creating
58:49a culture of like attracting the right I
58:53mean basically Chief hire when you think
58:56of a CEO
58:57like the great CEOs are
59:01I mean maybe people don't talk about it
59:03that often but they do more often for
59:06CEOs than they do for presidents it's
59:08like how good are you building a team
59:10well we make it really difficult because
59:11the political process I mean and also
59:13because we have so many political
59:15appointments we ought to have less to be
59:17honest I mean we look at other
59:18governments around the world you know
59:20that are smaller it's much easier for
59:22them to hire people in yeah you know
59:24some of the most successful governments
59:25are much smaller and it's not that I say
59:27that you know the government is
59:28necessarily too big but it's just
59:30thinking about each unit in a different
59:32way we shouldn't be having so many
59:34political appointments we should kind of
59:35find more professional appointments more
59:37non-parties on appointments because you
59:40know with every single Administration
59:41that we've had over the last but the
59:44span of presidency they have jobs that
59:46are unfulfilled because they can't get
59:49their candidates through Congress and
59:51the Senate because of all the kind of
59:53political games that are being played I
59:55know loads of people have just been held
59:57up because it's just on the whim of you
59:58know some member of Congress even though
1:00:00that the actual position that they want
1:00:02is really Technical and doesn't really
1:00:04care about what you know what political
1:00:06you know Preference they particularly
1:00:08have so I think we have to try to look
1:00:11at the whole system of governments in
1:00:13the way that we would over you know
1:00:14other professional
1:00:16sectors and to try to think about this
1:00:19as just as you said there that this is a
1:00:21government that's actually running our
1:00:22country this is an operating system and
1:00:25you wouldn't operate it like that if you
1:00:27were you know looking at in any kind of
1:00:29rational way it shouldn't be so
1:00:31ideologically or parties untainted so
1:00:35you're at every level anyway so I would
1:00:36actually just make a bid for a more
1:00:39non-partisan approach to a lot of the
1:00:41parts of government you can still kind
1:00:42of bring in you know the political and
1:00:44premature but also you have to explain
1:00:46to people writ large in America as well
1:00:48that this is your government yeah and
1:00:50that actually you could also be part of
1:00:51this yeah things like the small business
1:00:52administration the US Department of
1:00:54Agriculture you know all these kind of
1:00:56things that actually people interact
1:00:58with but they don't even know it the
1:00:59Postal Service you know all of these
1:01:01things I mean people actually when you
1:01:03ask them about uh different functions of
1:01:05government they have a lot of support
1:01:06for the National Park Service you know
1:01:08for example it's just when you talk
1:01:09about government in an abstract where
1:01:11like oh yeah no too much bloated you
1:01:14know not efficient and effective but if
1:01:16you kind of bring it down more to the
1:01:17kind of local and federal levels that's
1:01:20kind of you know when people really see
1:01:21it and if people could see kind of
1:01:23themselves reflected and many of the
1:01:25people have gone into public service I
1:01:26think that they would yeah they have a
1:01:28lot more support for it more like
1:01:30Superstars like uh
1:01:33individuals that are like big on social
1:01:36media big in the public eye and having
1:01:38fun with it and showing cool stuff that
1:01:41it's not there's right now a lot of
1:01:43people see government as basically
1:01:45partisan Warfare and then
1:01:49it just it makes it unpleasant to do the
1:01:52job it makes it uninspiring for people
1:01:54looking in from outside about what's
1:01:56going on inside government all of it the
1:01:58whole thing but you you are you know
1:02:00just
1:02:01with all due respect you're pretty rare
1:02:04individual in terms of non-partisanship
1:02:06like it's just actually your whole life
1:02:09story The The Humbling aspect of of your
1:02:12upbringing and everything like that uh
1:02:15do you think it's possible to have a lot
1:02:17of nonpartisan
1:02:19experts in government like can you be a
1:02:23top presidential advisor on Russia
1:02:26for 10 years for 15 years and remain
1:02:30nonpartisan I think you can I don't
1:02:32think that's advisable though by the way
1:02:33because I mean I don't think anybody
1:02:34should be there you know so your first
1:02:36advice is to fire yourself afterwards
1:02:38you should you should definitely have
1:02:40terminal it's just like you shouldn't
1:02:41everything right I mean it's just like
1:02:43tenure in universities
1:02:45yeah you kind of you know we do we have
1:02:47natural term limits but you know you're
1:02:49kind of um you know basically bottling
1:02:51it up for other people I mean you know
1:02:53what I'm trying to do now I'm 57 now
1:02:56um and I always try to work with you
1:02:58know people from different generations
1:03:00to me just like
1:03:01you know I've really benefited from
1:03:03these you know kind of mentorships of
1:03:06people older you can you know Mentor up
1:03:07and well and Mentor down I mean I would
1:03:09you know try to get you know people from
1:03:11different backgrounds and different
1:03:12generations to work together in teams
1:03:13honestly I'd like to more team networked
1:03:16uh kind of approach to things not the
1:03:18kind of things that you get again in
1:03:19science right I mean all these ideas are
1:03:21going to come from all kinds of
1:03:22different perspectives age and
1:03:24experience does count for something but
1:03:26you know fresh ideas and coming in and
1:03:28looking at a problem from a different
1:03:29perspective and seeing something that
1:03:31somebody else hasn't seen before I mean
1:03:33I just you know kind of love working in
1:03:35a an environment with all kinds of
1:03:37different people and people who don't
1:03:39agree with you you need people to take
1:03:41you on and say absolute that's crap you
1:03:44know kind of where did you come up with
1:03:45that from and go hang on well explain to
1:03:48me why you think so and then you know
1:03:50you have this kind of iterative process
1:03:51back and forth I mean I would always
1:03:53encourage my colleagues to tell me when
1:03:54they thought it was wrong I mean
1:03:55sometimes I didn't agree because I
1:03:57didn't see the the
1:03:58um you know the reasoning but other
1:04:00times I'm like they're right I you know
1:04:02but that was a complete mistake I I need
1:04:04to admit that and you know kind of we
1:04:06need to figure out a different way of
1:04:07doing things but at one point I do want
1:04:09to get across is there were a lot of
1:04:11people who were non-partisan that I
1:04:13worked with I mean honestly and most of
1:04:14the jobs that I had up until more
1:04:16recently I had no idea about people's
1:04:18political affiliation it's just when you
1:04:19get into this kind of Highly charged
1:04:21partisan environment they kind of force
1:04:23people you know to make decisions and
1:04:26when you have you know one political
1:04:28party of political fashion that's trying
1:04:29to usurp power it does make it quite
1:04:31difficult I mean that's the situation
1:04:33that we're in right now and you know
1:04:34we're seeing some of the things
1:04:35happening since I've seen and studied in
1:04:37other settings or seen for myself
1:04:39happening you know when you have
1:04:42um a president who wants to cling on to
1:04:44power you know you've got you've got to
1:04:46call that out you know is that a
1:04:49partisan act or is that a kind of you
1:04:50know defense of that larger uh political
1:04:53system that that you're part of you know
1:04:56so I think we've got to recognize that
1:05:00even if you're not partisan you can be
1:05:02politically engaged and you know
1:05:04sometimes you just have to stand up
1:05:05there and speak out which is you know
1:05:07what I did what others did as well none
1:05:09of those people who spoke out you know
1:05:11can initially saw that as a partisan act
1:05:13even if some of them since then have
1:05:15decided to make political choices they
1:05:16hadn't made before because in the
1:05:18situation actually forced people into
1:05:20you know taking sites it's very hard to
1:05:23still stay above The Fray when you've
1:05:24got you know someone who's trying to
1:05:25perpetrate a coup yeah just to linger on
1:05:28that I think it's hard and it's the
1:05:31courageous thing to do to criticize a
1:05:34president and not fall into partisanship
1:05:37after because the whole world will
1:05:40assume if you criticize Donald Trump
1:05:42that you're clearly
1:05:45uh a Democrat and so they will just
1:05:49everybody will criticize you for being a
1:05:51Democrat and then so you're now stuck in
1:05:54that so you're going to just Embrace
1:05:55that role but to still walk the
1:05:58nonpartisan route after the criticism
1:05:59that's the hard Road uh so not let the
1:06:02criticisms break you into uh
1:06:06you know into a certain kind of
1:06:09ideological set of positions I mean our
1:06:12political system needs revitalization we
1:06:14need to be taking a long hard look at
1:06:16ourselves here and I think what people
1:06:18are calling out for look there's a vast
1:06:20with a population of like me who were
1:06:21unaffiliated you know maybe some lean in
1:06:24One Direction Over another and you know
1:06:25unaffiliated doesn't mean you don't have
1:06:27views about things and political
1:06:28opinions and you know you may sound
1:06:31quite extreme on you know some of those
1:06:32you know by the from a left or right
1:06:34right perspective what people are
1:06:36looking for is kind of an articulation
1:06:38you know things in a kind of a clear way
1:06:40that they can get a handle on and
1:06:42they're also looking for a
1:06:43representation somebody's going to be
1:06:44there on you know for you you know not
1:06:47part of a kind of a rigid team that
1:06:48you're excluded from you're the ins and
1:06:50the outs or what people are looking at
1:06:51now they're looking at that in the
1:06:53workplace because they're not finding
1:06:54that
1:06:55in politics you're actually getting
1:06:58workers you know pushing the people talk
1:07:00about the rise of the workers people
1:07:02just saying hang on a sec you know the
1:07:03most important space that I'm in right
1:07:06now
1:07:06is my workplace because that's where my
1:07:08benefits are from they're not coming
1:07:09from the state I mean that's the
1:07:11peculiarity of the United States system
1:07:12you know the Britain you've got the
1:07:14National Health Service and you've got
1:07:15all the kind of national wide benefits
1:07:16you know you're not Tethered to your
1:07:18employer like you are in the United
1:07:20States but here now we're asking people
1:07:22you know people are pushing
1:07:24for more representation they're asking
1:07:26to be represented within their workplace
1:07:28be it Starbucks where Boris deserve you
1:07:31know no the Starbucks employees are
1:07:32trying to unionize we have unions among
1:07:35our research assistants the bookings
1:07:37institution where I am you know kind of
1:07:38teaching assistants in big universities
1:07:40doing the same kind of thing as well
1:07:41because they won't have their boys heard
1:07:43they want to kind of play a larger role
1:07:45they want to have change and they're
1:07:47often pushing their companies or the
1:07:48institutions they work for to make that
1:07:50change because they don't see it
1:07:52happening
1:07:53um uh in the political sphere this is
1:07:55not just enough to go out there and
1:07:56protest in the street but if you want
1:07:58something to happen that's why you're
1:08:00seeing big corporations playing a bigger
1:08:02role as well
1:08:03yeah and of course there's you know this
1:08:06is the longest discussion there's also
1:08:07criticisms of that mechanisms of unions
1:08:10that to achieve the giving of a voice to
1:08:13a people this goes back to my own
1:08:14experience growing up in northern
1:08:17England
1:08:18the Durham miners
1:08:19that I was part of for Generations you
1:08:22know first person in my family not in
1:08:24the mines on my dad's side
1:08:26um they created their own Association it
1:08:29wasn't a union person at the very
1:08:30beginning later they became part of the
1:08:32national minders Union they lost their
1:08:33autonomy and Independence as a result of
1:08:35that but what they did was they pulled
1:08:37their resources they set up their own
1:08:38Parliament so they could all get
1:08:40together literally they built a
1:08:41parliament and it you know opened in
1:08:42like the same time as World War one and
1:08:44where they all got together because they
1:08:45didn't have the vote they didn't have
1:08:46suffrage at the time because they didn't
1:08:48have any money you know so they didn't
1:08:49compare the tax and they you know they
1:08:51couldn't run for Parliament and this is
1:08:53you know the kind of the origins of the
1:08:54organized labor parties later but they
1:08:57create this Association so they could
1:08:59talk about how they could deal with
1:09:00things of their own communities and have
1:09:01a voice in the things that mattered you
1:09:05know education you know improving their
1:09:07work conditions it wasn't like what you
1:09:09think about some kind of like big
1:09:10political Trade union with you know
1:09:12left-wing you know kind of ideas in fact
1:09:14they actually tried to root out later
1:09:16after the Bolshevik Revolution in the
1:09:18Soviet Union even when they were still
1:09:20having ties with players like the minds
1:09:21of Don bass in the 1920s trotskyites and
1:09:23you know kind of londonists and you know
1:09:25Communists they were more focused on how
1:09:28to improve their own well-being you know
1:09:32what they call the welfare they had some
1:09:33welfare societies where they were kind
1:09:35of trying to think and that's kind of
1:09:36what Baristas in Starbucks want or
1:09:39workers in Amazon they're talking about
1:09:41their own well-being it's not just about
1:09:42pay and work conditions it's about what
1:09:44it means to be part of this large entity
1:09:47because you're not feeling that same
1:09:49kind of connection
1:09:50to politics you know at the moment
1:09:52because you know you're being told by a
1:09:54representative sorry I don't represent
1:09:56you because you didn't vote for me you
1:09:57know if you're not a Democrat you're not
1:09:59Republican you're not red you know
1:10:00you're not blue you're not mine and so
1:10:03people are saying well I'm in this
1:10:04workplus this is kind of my Collective
1:10:05you know this is this is you know
1:10:07therefore this is what I'm gonna have to
1:10:09try to push to make change so I mean
1:10:11this is kind of happening here and we
1:10:12have to you know realize that you know
1:10:15we've kind of gone and we're full circle
1:10:16back to that you know kind of period of
1:10:18the early emergence of sort of mass
1:10:19labor and you know the way that that's
1:10:21where the political parties that we know
1:10:23today and you know the kind of early
1:10:25unions came out of as well this sort of
1:10:27feeling of a mass Society but where
1:10:29people weren't really able to
1:10:32get together and Implement uh or push
1:10:35for change you know with unions at a
1:10:38small scale and a local scale it's like
1:10:40every good idea
1:10:42on a small scale can become a bad idea
1:10:46in a large on a large scale so like uh
1:10:48marriage is a beautiful thing but at a
1:10:52large scale it becomes the marriage
1:10:54industrial complex that tries to make
1:10:55money off of it combined with the
1:10:57lawyers that try to make money off the
1:10:59divorce uh it just becomes there you go
1:11:02caricature of a thing or like uh
1:11:05Christmas in the holidays it's like it's
1:11:07just I I don't disagree but what I'm
1:11:09saying is there's K-pop people are
1:11:11basically looking for something here and
1:11:13you know kind of this is why I mean I
1:11:14myself them start to think about much
1:11:16more local you know kind of solutions to
1:11:18a lot of these you know kind of problems
1:11:20it's again the teamed networked approach
1:11:23and the impeachment
1:11:25looking back because you're part of it
1:11:27you get the experience that do you think
1:11:30they strengthened or weakened this
1:11:33nation
1:11:34I think it weakened in many respects
1:11:36just the way that it was conducted I
1:11:38mean there's a new book coming out by a
1:11:41couple of journalists in the Washington
1:11:42Post I haven't actually seen it yet but
1:11:43I really did you know kind of worry that
1:11:46myself that it became a spectacle
1:11:51and although it actually I think in many
1:11:54respects was important in terms of an
1:11:56exercise of civic responsibility and you
1:11:59know give people a big massive lesson in
1:12:00Civics everyone's kind of running out
1:12:02and looking up the whole process of
1:12:03impeachment and what that meant and
1:12:05Congressional prerogatives I was as well
1:12:07I was you know like running off myself
1:12:09and you know trying to learn an enormous
1:12:11amount about it because I was in the
1:12:12middle of a lot of this
1:12:14that it didn't ultimately show
1:12:16responsibility and accountability
1:12:19and that in itself was kind of was
1:12:21weakened because
1:12:22on on you know both sides there was a
1:12:25lot of parties on politics
1:12:27uh I mean I think that there was a
1:12:29dereliction of Duty uh in many respects
1:12:33I mean especially I have to say on the
1:12:35part of Republican members of Congress
1:12:37um who were you know kind of they should
1:12:39have been embracing you know congress's
1:12:41prerogatives you could have you know
1:12:42kind of basically done this in a in
1:12:44something of a different way but the
1:12:46whole thing is because it was this
1:12:48larger atmosphere of polarized I'm not
1:12:53even polarized fractured fractured
1:12:55politics and I was deeply disappointed I
1:12:57have to say and many of the members of
1:12:59Congress on uh the Republican side
1:13:01there's a lot of grandstanding that I
1:13:03really didn't like one bit on the
1:13:05Democratic side either and and not
1:13:07admitting to mistakes and you know not
1:13:09kind of addressing head-on you know the
1:13:11fact that they'd you know kind of been
1:13:13pushing for you know Trump to be
1:13:14impeached and you know talking about
1:13:15them and being an illegitimate president
1:13:17you know kind of right from the the very
1:13:18beginning and that you know as a result
1:13:20a lot of people just saw this this is
1:13:22kind of a continuation of you know
1:13:24political games you know coming out of
1:13:26uh the 2016 election but on the
1:13:29Republican side it was just a game there
1:13:31was people I knew who were you know
1:13:33being basically you know one point one
1:13:35of them winked at me you know in the
1:13:37middle of this you know kind of
1:13:38impeachment it's just like don't take
1:13:40this personally you know this is there's
1:13:42the game this is a game and I just
1:13:43thought this isn't a game and that's why
1:13:45I think that it you know kind of
1:13:46weakened because I mean again on the
1:13:48outside it it weakened us the whole
1:13:51process we can does in the eyes of the
1:13:53world because again the United States
1:13:54was the gold standard and I do think I
1:13:57mean again in the in the terms of the
1:13:58larger population although a lot of
1:14:00people you did actually see the system
1:14:02you know standing up trying to do
1:14:03something to help people account but
1:14:05there's always that element of circus
1:14:07and a big political game and people
1:14:09being careless with the country but I do
1:14:11think that the Democrats
1:14:14were the instigators of the circus so as
1:14:18uh
1:14:19it's perhaps subtle but there's a
1:14:22there's a different way you talk about
1:14:25issues or concerns about accountability
1:14:28when you care about your country when
1:14:31you love your country when you love the
1:14:33ideals and when you uh versus when you
1:14:36just want to win and stick it to the
1:14:39other side I agree I mean there were
1:14:41people who um I actually thought managed
1:14:44that that made it about the country
1:14:46rather than about themselves
1:14:48yeah there were a lot of those who did a
1:14:50lot of grandstanding yeah and that's
1:14:53that's another problem of our political
1:14:54incentive structures the the kind of
1:14:56sense of accountability and
1:14:57responsibility tends to be personal you
1:15:00know people whether people decide to do
1:15:01it or not it's not institutional if that
1:15:04makes sense we've added kind of a
1:15:05breakdown of that kind of that sense now
1:15:07I took an oath of office and I'm
1:15:09assuming that most of them did too you
1:15:11know I had to be sworn in you know when
1:15:13I I took those positions I took that
1:15:15seriously but I already took an oath of
1:15:16citizenship there's you know presumably
1:15:19you did too you know you kind of started
1:15:21to become an American citizen it's not
1:15:23something you take on lightly
1:15:25and you know that's why I felt this deep
1:15:26sense of responsibility all the time
1:15:28which is why I went into the
1:15:29administration in the first place I mean
1:15:31I got a lot of flack for it because you
1:15:33know I thought well look I've been asked
1:15:36and there's a real issue here after the
1:15:38Russian interference and you know the
1:15:40whole influence operation in the 2016
1:15:42elections and I knew what was going on
1:15:45and I should do something
1:15:47you know if not me then you know okay
1:15:50someone else will go and do it but can I
1:15:52live with myself just sitting on the
1:15:53sidelines and criticizing what people
1:15:55are doing you know and kind of you know
1:15:57worrying about this or am I actually
1:15:58going to muck in there and you know just
1:16:00go and do something it's like seeing
1:16:01your house on fire and you see that you
1:16:03know okay this is pretty awful and
1:16:04dangerous but I could go in there and
1:16:06and do something
1:16:07to clarify the house on fire meaning
1:16:11the Cyber War that's going on or cyber
1:16:14attacks the Cyber City well in the 2016
1:16:16you know when the Russians had
1:16:17interfered in the election you know I I
1:16:20mean basically this was a huge National
1:16:23Security crisis and our politics we've
1:16:26gone mad as a result of it and we in
1:16:28fact we were making the situation worse
1:16:30and I thought that I could you know kind
1:16:32of at the time but maybe I could do
1:16:34something here I could try to clarify I
1:16:36could you know work with others who I
1:16:38knew in the government from previous
1:16:39stints in the government to push back
1:16:41against this and try to make sure it
1:16:43didn't happen again and look and I also
1:16:44didn't have this you know mad you know
1:16:47kind of crazy ideological view of Russia
1:16:49either I mean I knew the players I knew
1:16:51the people I've been studying a long
1:16:52time and quite calm about it I don't
1:16:53take it personally it's not kind of an
1:16:56extension of self it's you know
1:16:58something I've spent a long time trying
1:16:59to understand for myself going back to
1:17:01that very beginning of my with the
1:17:02Russians trying to blow us up there must
1:17:03be an explanation there was it was a
1:17:05very complicated and complex explanation
1:17:07it wasn't as simple as how it sounded
1:17:09and also there's a long tail to 2016 you
1:17:14know Putin's perceptions the kind of
1:17:15things that he thought were going on the
1:17:17the you know the whole way that
1:17:20what they did was actually fairly
1:17:22straightforward they've done this before
1:17:23in the Soviet period during the Cold War
1:17:25classic influence operation it just did
1:17:28gone beyond the bounds of anything they
1:17:30could have anticipated because of social
1:17:32media and just a Confluence of
1:17:34circumstances in the United States as
1:17:36well we were very fragile and vulnerable
1:17:38and I remember at one point having a
1:17:40discussion with the Russian ambassador
1:17:42where you know we were complaining about
1:17:45the Russian intervention he said are you
1:17:47telling me that the United States is a
1:17:49Banana Republic that it's so vulnerable
1:17:51to these kinds of efforts he actually
1:17:53looked genuinely mystified although I
1:17:55mean I'm obviously was probably you know
1:17:57part of a you know kind of political
1:17:59shtick there but he had a point the
1:18:02United States had never been that
1:18:03vulnerable as it suddenly was in 2016.
1:18:06and in the time that I was in government
1:18:08and going back to what you asked about
1:18:10the whole impeachment and the whole
1:18:12exercise in uh in Congress
1:18:15that vulnerability was as Stark as it
1:18:18you know ever could be our domestic
1:18:21politics were as much a part of the
1:18:23problem as anything else there were the
1:18:24kindling to all of the kind of the fires
1:18:26Putin didn't start any of this other
1:18:29kind of problems domestically just took
1:18:31advantage of them and you know basically
1:18:33added a bit of a next settlement here
1:18:35and there
1:18:37yeah the interference I mean that's a
1:18:39much longer discussion
1:18:41because uh it's also for me technically
1:18:45fascinating
1:18:47um I've been playing with the idea of
1:18:48just launching like a million Bots but
1:18:50that are doing just positive stuff and
1:18:52just being kind yeah I was kind of
1:18:55wondering if is it possible to do
1:18:56something on this skill that's positive
1:18:58because you know a lot of people seem to
1:18:59be able to use all of this for pretty
1:19:01negative effect you've got to kind of
1:19:02hope that you could do this use the Sim
1:19:03networks for for positive effects I
1:19:05think that's actually where a lot of the
1:19:07war I think uh from the original hackers
1:19:10to today
1:19:12what gives people like me and I think a
1:19:15lot of people that in the hacking
1:19:17Community pleasure is to do something
1:19:19difficult break through the systems
1:19:22and uh do the ethical thing right so do
1:19:26the um because if there's something
1:19:28broken about the system you want to
1:19:31break through all the rules and do
1:19:33something that you know in your heart is
1:19:35the right thing to do I mean that's what
1:19:38um Aaron Schwartz did with the releasing
1:19:40journals and Publications that were
1:19:43behind pay walls to the public
1:19:46yeah but to me it's fascinating because
1:19:48I I maybe you can actually educate me
1:19:51but um
1:19:53I felt that the Russian interference
1:19:57in terms of social engineering in terms
1:20:00of bots all that kind of stuff I feel
1:20:02like there was more used for political
1:20:04bickering than to actually understand
1:20:06the national security problem because uh
1:20:10I would like to know the actual numbers
1:20:12involved in the influence I would like
1:20:14to I mean obviously hopefully people Now
1:20:16understand that better that are trying
1:20:18to defend the National Security of this
1:20:21country but it just it felt like
1:20:23like for example if I launch one bot
1:20:27and then and then just contact somebody
1:20:30at the New York Times saying I launched
1:20:32this one bot they'll just say uh
1:20:35MIT
1:20:36scientists hacks you know and then
1:20:40well that's the spread but that's
1:20:42exactly what happened it was you know
1:20:44kind of I think that you know Putin and
1:20:46surround him
1:20:48understood because again propaganda
1:20:50State they spend an awful lot of time
1:20:52thinking about how you you know
1:20:54basically put out your own content and
1:20:56how you get maximum effect through
1:20:58performance Putin himself is a you know
1:21:01political pop performance artist I mean
1:21:03Trump understood exactly the same thing
1:21:05they were actually operating in parallel
1:21:07not in collusion but in parallel you
1:21:10know basically Trump understood how to
1:21:12get lots of free air time you know how
1:21:13to get himself a percentage of attention
1:21:15Putin you know did that through a kind
1:21:17of I think a less organic kind of way
1:21:19you know a lot of people working around
1:21:20him remember that's the old you know
1:21:21Bolshevik I did prop and you know kind
1:21:24of then the whole Soviet propaganda
1:21:25machine and you know Putin kind of
1:21:27growing up in that kind of environment
1:21:29and having you know the kind of the
1:21:30Kremlin press office and all the kind of
1:21:32people around him got kind of a massive
1:21:34machine knew how did that worked I mean
1:21:36they haven't done you know what the
1:21:37Chinese did in Russia it was like you
1:21:39know blocking everything and having a
1:21:40big fire while it was kind of putting
1:21:41out lots of content getting into the you
1:21:43know the sort of center of attention
1:21:44Trump's doing the same kind of thing and
1:21:47the Russians understood that you know if
1:21:49you put a bit of things out there and
1:21:50then you call up the New York Times and
1:21:52people are going to run with it and what
1:21:54they wanted was the perception that they
1:21:57had actually sweared the election they
1:21:59loved it this was the huge mistake of
1:22:01the Democrats and everything and I kept
1:22:02trying to push against this no they did
1:22:04not elect Donald Trump Americans elected
1:22:07uh Donald Trump and you know the
1:22:09Electoral College was a key part
1:22:11Vladimir Putin didn't make that up
1:22:13you know and basically I also remember
1:22:16um you know at one point the um Russian
1:22:19Ambassador you know talking to me about
1:22:21when we were doing the standard you know
1:22:22here we are we're lodging our complaint
1:22:24about the interference you know he
1:22:26didn't he basically said well we didn't
1:22:28you know kind of invent Comey and you
1:22:31know basically the you know the decision
1:22:33to reopen you know Hillary Clinton's
1:22:36emails or you know kind of uh Anthony
1:22:38Weiner and you know kind of his
1:22:41um you know emails on uh his uh computer
1:22:44and I was like yeah
1:22:46he's right I mean you know there were
1:22:48plenty of things in our own system that
1:22:50created chaos and tipped the election
1:22:52not you know kind of what the Russians
1:22:55did but you know it's obviously easier
1:22:56to blame the Russians and blame yourself
1:22:57when you know things are kind of oh oh
1:23:00those random forces and those random
1:23:02factors because people couldn't
1:23:04understand what had happened
1:23:05in 2016 there was no hanging Chads like
1:23:092000 where there was you know kind of a
1:23:11technical uh problem that actually you
1:23:13know ended up with the intervention the
1:23:15Supreme Court There Was You Know pure
1:23:17and simple the Electoral College at work
1:23:19and a candidate that nobody expected
1:23:22including the Republicans in the
1:23:24primaries you know to end up getting
1:23:27kind of elected or put forward in a
1:23:29different 2016 suddenly becoming the
1:23:30president and they needed a meta
1:23:33explanation it was much better to say
1:23:35Vladimir Putin had done it and Vladimir
1:23:36Putin had been other Kremlin guys were
1:23:38like oh my God yeah fantastic champagne
1:23:41Cox popping this is great our Chaos
1:23:43Agent they knew they hadn't done it but
1:23:45they'd love to take credit for it and so
1:23:47you know the very fact that other people
1:23:48couldn't explain these complex dynamics
1:23:51of themselves
1:23:53basically dovetails beautifully with
1:23:55Vladimir Putin's
1:23:57uh attempts to be the kind of the
1:23:59Kremlin Gremlin in the system
1:24:01and he's you know basically was taking
1:24:03advantage of that forevermore and I
1:24:04wanted you know to basically try to
1:24:06work with us to cut through that and the
1:24:08thing is then you know people lost faith
1:24:09in the Integrity of the election system
1:24:11because people were out there you know
1:24:13suggesting that the Russians had
1:24:14actually distorted the elections people
1:24:15written books about that they said you
1:24:17know that they hacked the system when
1:24:18you know they were trying to hack our
1:24:20minds but again we were the fertile soul
1:24:23for this I mean we know this from
1:24:24Russian history the role the Bolsheviks
1:24:26you know the the whole
1:24:281920s and 1930s with Stalin the fellow
1:24:31Travelers and the you know socialist you
1:24:34know International I mean the Russians
1:24:36and the Soviets have been at this for
1:24:38years about kind of pulling you know
1:24:40kind of people along and into kind of a
1:24:41broader friend but it didn't mean
1:24:44that they were influencing you know
1:24:46directly the politics of of countries
1:24:50you know writ large the plenty of
1:24:52interventions it's just that we were
1:24:53somehow it was like it was a Confluence
1:24:55of event a perfect storm We Were Somehow
1:24:58exquisitely vulnerable because of things
1:25:01that we had done to ourselves it was
1:25:03what Americans were doing to themselves
1:25:05that was the issue you think that's the
1:25:08bigger threat than large-scale bought
1:25:11armies
1:25:13those can be as well obviously they do
1:25:14have an impact but it's it's how people
1:25:16process information it's kind of like
1:25:18the lack of critical thinking I'm just
1:25:20not on the internet to that extent I'm
1:25:22going looking for information I'm not on
1:25:24social media I'm into social media but
1:25:26not by myself you know I don't put
1:25:28myself out there I'm not I've got a
1:25:30Twitter feeder you don't have a Twitter
1:25:31one yeah but there is
1:25:34you know I have all kinds of strange
1:25:36things it's feeling Health cup which I
1:25:37kind of like you know occasionally have
1:25:38people send things to me so many fans
1:25:40it's hilarious but what I what I what I
1:25:42try to do is just be really critical I
1:25:44mean my you know my mum sends me stuff
1:25:45like what is this yeah
1:25:49it's just you know your own mother can
1:25:51be as much of an agent of misinformation
1:25:53as you know kind of Vladimir Putin oh
1:25:55yeah I mean we're all you know kind of
1:25:57we all have to really think about what
1:25:59it is we're reading there's one thing
1:26:00for my childhood that was really
1:26:02important I mean I always think every
1:26:04kid in school should have this my next
1:26:06door neighbor
1:26:08um who were was um he was actually very
1:26:11active in the in the labor party and he
1:26:14was you know kind of really interested
1:26:16in the way that opinion you know shaped
1:26:18people's political views and he was well
1:26:20she was a native Welsh speaker so you
1:26:21know he was always trying to explore
1:26:23English and how you know there was kind
1:26:25of the reach of you know the English
1:26:27culture and you know kind of How It's
1:26:28kind of shaping the way that people
1:26:30thought and he used to read every single
1:26:31newspaper you know from all the
1:26:33different spectrums which is quite easy
1:26:34to do you know back in the 70s and 80s
1:26:36because there weren't that many in the
1:26:37UK context and every Sunday would get
1:26:40all the different Sunday papers from all
1:26:41the different kind of ideological
1:26:43Vantage points and then when I got to be
1:26:45a teenager he'd invite me to look at
1:26:47them with him
1:26:48because it was my godfather and he was
1:26:50just an incredible guy and he was just
1:26:52super interesting and you know kind of
1:26:53culturally you know an outsider always
1:26:56kind of looking in and he basically runs
1:26:59through you know what the guardian
1:27:00looked at the Observer The Daily Mail
1:27:02the sun you know kind of all of these
1:27:04you know the telegraph all of these
1:27:05newspapers and how you could tell you
1:27:08know their different Vantage points and
1:27:10of course it's complicated to do that
1:27:12now I mean in this you know incredibly
1:27:15extensive media space I look at what it
1:27:18is that they're saying and then I tried
1:27:20to you know read around it and then you
1:27:22know look at what other people are
1:27:23saying and why they're saying it and who
1:27:25are they what's their context and that
1:27:27was kind of busy what I was taught to
1:27:28look at and and I think everybody should
1:27:30have that and certainly that's something
1:27:33that people in politics that are in
1:27:35charge of directing policy should should
1:27:37be doing they should be not getting lost
1:27:40in uh
1:27:42in the sort of the hysteria that can be
1:27:45created like it does seem that the
1:27:48American system somehow not the
1:27:49political system just humans love drama
1:27:53we're very good like the hunter Biden
1:27:56laptop Story We there's always like one
1:27:59two three stories somehow that we just
1:28:02pick that we're just gonna this is the
1:28:04stuff we're gonna
1:28:05fight about
1:28:07for this election and everyone's got an
1:28:09opinion on it everybody yeah yeah
1:28:11exactly and it's the most important like
1:28:12Hillary Clinton's emails Russians packed
1:28:15the election yeah we had John podesta's
1:28:17pasta recipes for a while you know that
1:28:19we were kind of all obsessing over I
1:28:21don't know people running out and trying
1:28:22them out you know something like that
1:28:23and there's fun uh I mean there's all
1:28:26the best conspiracy theories about
1:28:28Giuliani there's I just love it we just
1:28:31pick a random story sometimes it's
1:28:32ridiculous and it detracts from what the
1:28:34larger question should be which is about
1:28:36the family members of you know senior
1:28:38officials and mothers they should be
1:28:40anywhere near any of the issues that
1:28:42they're you know there's ethics there's
1:28:43government ethics and things there you
1:28:45know kind of across the ball but there's
1:28:46a bigger story in there but that becomes
1:28:48a distraction it's a look over there you
1:28:51know the oldest trick in the book you
1:28:52know kind of idea
1:28:54yes politicians are really good at that
1:28:56because it detects from the larger
1:28:58question because every single member of
1:29:00Congress and you know government
1:29:02official their family should be nowhere
1:29:04near anything they're doing
1:29:05well that I could push back and disagree
1:29:08on I I mean well it depends on what they
1:29:10did if they're making money out of it
1:29:12you know and kind of basically being in
1:29:13business is what I mean you know if this
1:29:15is a this is
1:29:16so it's not you know Hunter Biden on his
1:29:19own it's you know kind of basically the
1:29:22kids of you know the Trump family the
1:29:23bitter you name it yeah in general like
1:29:26that I just think
1:29:28it's funny like there's a lot of
1:29:30families that
1:29:32you know they work very closely together
1:29:34do business together it's very
1:29:35successful I get very weird about that
1:29:38it it just feels like you're not in fact
1:29:42I don't even like hiring or working with
1:29:44friends
1:29:46uh initially you make friends with the
1:29:48people you work with that's right no I
1:29:49have to I have the same worries as well
1:29:51because it kind of clouds you know I
1:29:53would encourage you know my daughter to
1:29:55do something completely different right
1:29:57not going to the same field now look
1:29:59it's different if you're you know in
1:30:01science or you know mathematics or
1:30:03something like this and you know maybe
1:30:04you know kind of you've got a family
1:30:05member you're kind of building on some
1:30:06of their theories and ideas you know if
1:30:08Albert Einstein had a you know kind of
1:30:11an offspring it was a mathematics and
1:30:12took you know his father's thinking you
1:30:14know further that would be very
1:30:15different but if it's you know kind of
1:30:17you're in business and other things and
1:30:19it's just you know it's the nepotism
1:30:21problem that you know one has there well
1:30:22it says that too yeah that's what they
1:30:24do if they're not people aren't coming
1:30:26and building on the ideas in a
1:30:27constructive web right but even for son
1:30:30daughter of Einstein You want to think
1:30:32outside the box of the previous person
1:30:35I'm meaning but I mean it's just but
1:30:36they shouldn't be sort of told no sorry
1:30:38you can't go and study math because you
1:30:40know whatever physics you know because
1:30:41of but a lot of that you can't actually
1:30:43make it into law well you could I
1:30:46suppose but honestly if you do that kind
1:30:48of thing you should be transparent there
1:30:50should be just an honesty body it gets
1:30:52back to what I was talking about before
1:30:53we need diversity of views and diversity
1:30:54of thinking and you can't have other
1:30:55things just like being partisan or you
1:30:57know uh
1:30:59rooting just for a team you know if
1:31:01something's going to Cloud your judgment
1:31:03or a constrain the way you think about
1:31:05things and become you know kind of a
1:31:07barrier to moving on out look that's
1:31:09what we see in the system around Putin
1:31:11it's kind of kleptocratic and it's uh
1:31:14you know it's filled with nepotism all
1:31:16of the kind of like the people who you
1:31:18kind of see out there in prominent
1:31:20positions of the sons or Daughters of
1:31:21including a Putin himself I mean that's
1:31:24when a system has degenerated and that's
1:31:26going to kind of and I suppose in a way
1:31:28this is a symbol of the degeneration of
1:31:30the system but again it's just a
1:31:32diversion from you know kind of the
1:31:33bigger issues and bigger implications of
1:31:36things that we're discussing
1:31:38so Critics on the left often use the
1:31:41straw man of TDS Trump derangement
1:31:43syndrome
1:31:46uh why does Donald Trump arouse so much
1:31:50emotion in people
1:31:52it's just the nature of the person I
1:31:54mean I don't feel particularly emotional
1:31:55about him
1:31:56um I mean he's kind of a
1:31:58he's a very flawed guy to be honest on
1:32:02this may seem bizarre I felt sorry for
1:32:03him
1:32:04because this guy is so vulnerable
1:32:06so wrapped upon himself
1:32:09that that I mean he's just exquisitely
1:32:13open to manipulation and I saw people
1:32:15taking advantage of him all the time he
1:32:18has zero self-awareness
1:32:20I mean I kept thinking to myself my God
1:32:21if this guy didn't have this Entourage
1:32:23around him how would he function
1:32:25I mean I felt sorry for us as well I
1:32:27mean that he ended up being our
1:32:28President because that should not have
1:32:29happened I mean in terms of character
1:32:30and in terms of fit for fit for the job
1:32:33although I saw this you know kind of
1:32:35over a period of time but I didn't feel
1:32:37you know kind of
1:32:40any you know
1:32:43ah
1:32:44sense of derangement you know kind of
1:32:46around him I didn't drive me nuts in
1:32:47that way I just became I was just very
1:32:49worried about you know the kind of the
1:32:51impact that he was having on on many
1:32:54particular issues here's the important
1:32:56thing so what I noticed that people that
1:32:58criticized Donald Trump
1:33:00is they get caught up in the momentum of
1:33:04it and they're unable to see
1:33:07um
1:33:08first of all let's start with some
1:33:10ground truth which is
1:33:13approximately
1:33:14half the country voted for the guy
1:33:18right yep and more voted in 2020 than
1:33:21voted in 2016. yeah
1:33:24and I I just I just feel like people
1:33:26don't load that in when they're honestly
1:33:29a lot of those people
1:33:30didn't vote for
1:33:32him and his personality and often
1:33:36first time and second time
1:33:39and they could disassociate
1:33:42you know kind of the all of the kind of
1:33:44features of Donald Trump that drives
1:33:46other people nuts from you know what
1:33:48they thought that an actual fact he
1:33:50could achieve in terms of it wasn't just
1:33:52this kind of sense about well I couldn't
1:33:53possibly vote for Democrats sometimes
1:33:55it's just like well look you shake
1:33:57things up and we need things to check to
1:33:59be shoken up and um some people might
1:34:01have voted them for personality see this
1:34:03one yeah some of them know some of them
1:34:04did as well but I'm just saying that not
1:34:06all of them did either that's the thing
1:34:08but yeah I can't say I'm just I'm just
1:34:10saying anecdotally I know people have
1:34:11voted me because he's him from the
1:34:13Charisma and and others who wrote it
1:34:15because he's shaking things up and you
1:34:18know he's keeping people on their toes
1:34:20and you know kind of we need that you
1:34:23know idea but the way to avoid Trump
1:34:26derangement syndrome to me me as a
1:34:29doctor I'm sort of prescribing to the
1:34:31patients uh on this syndrome this uh
1:34:35this issue is I feel like you have to
1:34:37empathize
1:34:38with the people you have to imagine your
1:34:40mind all the different like um
1:34:44strengths that the people who have voted
1:34:47for Donald Trump see
1:34:49and really understand it really feel it
1:34:52like walk around with it and then
1:34:55criticize like I just feel like people
1:34:58get lost in this bubble of criticism in
1:35:00their own head I don't forget like the
1:35:01tribe you're in or whatever in their own
1:35:03head they're not able to see like half
1:35:06this country that we're a part of voted
1:35:08for the person same with Biden half the
1:35:12country voted for the guy the people
1:35:14that are criticizing Biden and they're
1:35:16doing this the way Biden is currently
1:35:18criticized
1:35:20is not based on policy
1:35:23uh is based on personal stuff similar
1:35:27like to Trump yeah I know it is I mean
1:35:28that's what people do look I think part
1:35:30of that is
1:35:31I mean I look at first of all I want to
1:35:33say I completely agree with you about
1:35:34understanding my own people are coming
1:35:36from and I think it's very important for
1:35:37people to listen to other people and
1:35:39their views I try to do that all the
1:35:40time try to learn from that you know I
1:35:43mean everybody's got a a perspective and
1:35:45a context we all live in a certain
1:35:46context we're all living in history our
1:35:48own personal histories matter a lot and
1:35:50also the larger context the environment
1:35:52in which we're living in and where we
1:35:54live and who we live with and you know
1:35:57the kinds of lives that we lead as well
1:35:58those are all extraordinarily important
1:36:00I mean I know that from you know myself
1:36:01everything you know that I've done in my
1:36:03life has been shipped by where I came
1:36:05from who I was my family and the way
1:36:07that we looked at things you can't take
1:36:08yourself out of that I mean you can do
1:36:10it in some you know like a science or
1:36:12something else but you know it's still
1:36:13your own views and maybe some of the
1:36:15ideas that you have and pursuing an
1:36:16experiment might have been shipped by
1:36:18your larger context you know depending
1:36:19on what it is that you work on but the
1:36:21other thing is the niche of the
1:36:22political system
1:36:24the presidential election is like
1:36:28a personality contest a beauty contest
1:36:29it's like a kind of a referendum on you
1:36:32know one person or another
1:36:34it's kind of like what we see in Russia
1:36:35honesty with you know Putin or not Putin
1:36:37or Putin and put before you know it's
1:36:39all about Putin and you know what do you
1:36:41think about Putin it's not about what
1:36:43the President should be doing and you
1:36:45know kind of what their policies are
1:36:46that's kind of the bizareness of the US
1:36:50political system look we've just seen
1:36:52this happening in the United Kingdom
1:36:53you've got this core of a couple of
1:36:55thousand a couple hundred thousand
1:36:56rather uh people in the conservative
1:36:58party have just voted for you know three
1:37:01leaders in a row the rest of the country
1:37:03is and then they're just looking at you
1:37:04know whether they like that personality
1:37:06and you know what they said to them
1:37:07rather than what they're necessarily
1:37:09going to do for the country
1:37:10I mean which is you know kind of pretty
1:37:12absurd and I mean again the presidency
1:37:14is a weird hybrid in the United States
1:37:17you know we were talking before about
1:37:18it's the person should be running the
1:37:19country to the chief executive or the
1:37:21prime minister in another setting but we
1:37:23don't think of it like that you know we
1:37:25often think about whether we like the
1:37:26guy or not so you know we'd like to hang
1:37:28out with him all the you know one of my
1:37:30younger relatives and I said so why did
1:37:32you vote for Trump he said well he was
1:37:33great it was funny how much of his
1:37:34rallies I got you know all kind of
1:37:36charged up and I said could you see
1:37:38yourself voting for Biden always Two
1:37:39Worlds and I simply no he's only just a
1:37:41little bit you know kind of older than
1:37:43Trump or is you know the same emergency
1:37:45grandma do you think your Grandma's old
1:37:47no no not at all but it's just this kind
1:37:48of perception he's boring you know so
1:37:50there's people are actually sometimes
1:37:52you know basically being you know kind
1:37:54of uh motivated by just a feeling you
1:37:57know kind of that kind of sense because
1:37:58that's the sort of nature of the you
1:38:00know the presidency it's this kind of
1:38:02how you feel about yourself as an
1:38:04American or how you feel about the
1:38:05country writ large the kind of a symbol
1:38:07of the state look at you know in Britney
1:38:08you had you know Queen Elizabeth II and
1:38:10everyone body you know seem to for the
1:38:12most part not everyone I guess but most
1:38:14people respected her as a person as a
1:38:17personality as a kind of symbol of the
1:38:18state even if they actually didn't
1:38:19really like the institution of the
1:38:21monarchy there was something you know
1:38:22kind of about that particular
1:38:24personality that you were able to you
1:38:27know kind of relate to in that context
1:38:29but only the United States we've got all
1:38:30that rolled into one the head of state
1:38:32the symbol of the state the kind of
1:38:33queen the king the kind of idea the
1:38:35chief executive the kind of prime
1:38:37ministerial role and then the Commander
1:38:38in Chief of the military it's all things
1:38:41you know kind of at once but ultimately
1:38:43for a lot of people it's just how we
1:38:44feel about that person oh I couldn't
1:38:46cover up for them because of this or I
1:38:47couldn't vote for them because of that
1:38:48and in 2016
1:38:51I know Hillary Clinton actually did win
1:38:53the election in terms of the popular
1:38:54vote so it wasn't that you know kind of
1:38:56people wouldn't vote for a woman I mean
1:38:58more people voted for her
1:39:00on the popular level not obviously you
1:39:02know through the Electoral College in
1:39:04the Electoral College vote so it wasn't
1:39:06just you know gender or something like
1:39:07that but it was an awful lot of things
1:39:09for people found Trump attractive
1:39:11because he was sticking up the big
1:39:13middle finger to The Establishment he's
1:39:15an anti-establishment change character
1:39:17there's a lot of people voted for Barack
1:39:19Obama for the same reason and voted for
1:39:21Trump we know that phenomenon what was
1:39:22the 11 you know 12 of people you know so
1:39:25they could vote for some completely
1:39:27totally different vertically different
1:39:28people because that sense of change and
1:39:31Charisma I mean I had people who I knew
1:39:33voted for Trump but would have voted for
1:39:34a bummer again if he'd run again
1:39:36uh because they just like the way that
1:39:39he spoke they like the way that you know
1:39:41because they said um I mean this is all
1:39:43my own anecdotal things dude about one
1:39:45of my relatives that I could listen to
1:39:46Obama all day every day I just love the
1:39:48way he sounded I love the way he looked
1:39:50you know I was just like the whole thing
1:39:51about him and then say about Trump while
1:39:53he was exciting it was interesting you
1:39:55know he was kind of like you know
1:39:56whipping it up there you know so there's
1:39:58this just this kind of feeling you know
1:40:00we always say about you know could you
1:40:01have a beer with this person and people
1:40:03a lot people decide they couldn't have
1:40:05one with Hillary Clinton and you know
1:40:07maybe they could go off and have one
1:40:08with Barack Obama and uh with uh Donald
1:40:12Trump didn't want to have one with Joe
1:40:15Biden you know for example and remember
1:40:17George W bush didn't drink so he
1:40:18wouldn't have had a beer with him he'd
1:40:19have gone out and got a soda or
1:40:21something with him but you know there's
1:40:22this there's that kind of element of
1:40:25just that sort of personal connection in
1:40:28the way that the whole presidential
1:40:29election is set up it's less about the
1:40:32parties
1:40:33it says about the platforms it's more
1:40:35about the person
1:40:37yeah and picking one side and like
1:40:40sticking with your person really like a
1:40:42sport team yeah it is yeah what do you
1:40:45think about Vladimir Putin the man and
1:40:48the leader
1:40:50let's actually look at the full you've
1:40:52written a lot about him the the recent
1:40:55Vladimir Putin and the the full context
1:40:57of his life
1:41:00um let's zoom out and look at the last
1:41:0320 plus years of his rule
1:41:06in what ways has he been good for Russia
1:41:08in what ways bad
1:41:11well if you look to the
1:41:17you know on the uh overall Ledger you
1:41:21would have actually said that he
1:41:22made a lot of achievements from Russia
1:41:24now there was of course the pretty
1:41:26black period of the war in chechnya but
1:41:29you know he didn't start that that was
1:41:30Boris Yeltsin that was obviously a
1:41:33pretty catastrophic uh event but if you
1:41:37look at then other parts of the Ledger
1:41:39of what Putin was doing you know from
1:41:41the 2000s you know onwards he stabilized
1:41:45the Russian economy uh brought back you
1:41:47know kind of confidence uh and and the
1:41:50Russian economy and financial system he
1:41:53built up a pretty impressive team of
1:41:55technocrats rather than the central bank
1:41:57and the economics and you know Finance
1:41:59Ministries who
1:42:01um you know really got the country back
1:42:03into ship again and solvent paid off all
1:42:06of the debts and you know really started
1:42:08to
1:42:09um build the country back up again
1:42:11domestically
1:42:12and you know the first couple of terms
1:42:15again putting chechnya you know to one
1:42:17side which is a little hard because I
1:42:18mean there was a lot of atrocities and I
1:42:21have to say that you know he was pretty
1:42:23involved in all of that because the FSB
1:42:25which he'd headed previously you know
1:42:26was in charge of wrapping up chechnya
1:42:28and it created you know kind of a of a
1:42:31very strange sort of system of fealty
1:42:33almost a feudal system in the kind of
1:42:35relationship between uh Putin at the top
1:42:37and khadira Francesca there was quite a
1:42:39lot of distortions you know kind of as a
1:42:40result of that in the way that the
1:42:42Russian Federation was run you know a
1:42:44lot more of an emphasis on the security
1:42:46services for example but there was a lot
1:42:48of pragmatism you know opening up the
1:42:50country for business
1:42:52um you know basically extending
1:42:53relationships I would say that you know
1:42:56by the end of those first couple of
1:42:59terms of uh Putin Russians were living
1:43:01their best lives
1:43:03um you know there was a lot of
1:43:04opportunity for people uh people the
1:43:07labor you know was being paid for they
1:43:09weren't being taxed the taxes were
1:43:11coming out of the extractive industries
1:43:13uh there was you know kind of a I guess
1:43:16a sense of much more political pluralism
1:43:18um but it wasn't the kind of the chaos
1:43:19of the Elton period
1:43:21and then you see a shift
1:43:22and it's pretty much when he comes back
1:43:24into Power again
1:43:26in 2011 2012.
1:43:29and that's when we see a kind of a
1:43:31different phase emerging
1:43:33and you know part of it is the the
1:43:35larger International environment where
1:43:37Putin is himself has become kind of
1:43:39convinced of the United States is out to
1:43:41to get him and part of it goes back to
1:43:43the decision on the part of the United
1:43:45States to invade Iraq in 2003
1:43:48there's also you know the recognition of
1:43:50Kosovo in 2008 and you know the whole
1:43:53kind of machinations around all kinds of
1:43:55you know other issues of NATO expansion
1:43:57and elsewhere but Iraq in 2003 and this
1:44:00kind of whole idea after that that the
1:44:02United States is in the business of
1:44:03regime change and perhaps you know has
1:44:05him in his crosshairs as well
1:44:07but there's also then kind of I think a
1:44:09sense of building crisis after the
1:44:13financial crisis and the Great Recession
1:44:162008 2009 because I think Putin up until
1:44:19then believed in you know the whole idea
1:44:22of the Global Financial system and that
1:44:23Russia was prospering and that Russia
1:44:26you know part of the G8 actually could
1:44:28be genuinely one of the you know the
1:44:30major economic and financial powers
1:44:33and then suddenly he realizes that in
1:44:36the west is incompetent that you know we
1:44:38totally mismanaged the economy of our
1:44:40own the financial crash in the United
1:44:42States the kind of blowing up of the uh
1:44:44of the the housing bubble and that we
1:44:47were feckless
1:44:48and that we that had global
1:44:50reverberations
1:44:51and he's prime minister of course you
1:44:53know in this kind of period but then you
1:44:55know and I think that that kind of
1:44:56compels him to kind of come back into
1:44:58the presidency and try to kind of uh
1:45:00take things under control again in 2011
1:45:022012 and after that he goes into kind of
1:45:05a much more sort of focused role where
1:45:07he sees the United States as a as a big
1:45:09bigger problem
1:45:10and he also
1:45:12you know starts to you know kind of
1:45:15focus on also uh the domestic uh
1:45:17environment because his return to the
1:45:19presidency is met by protests and he
1:45:21genuinely seems to believe because again
1:45:23this is very similar to belief here in
1:45:25the United States that Donald Trump
1:45:26couldn't possibly be related by
1:45:27Americans there somehow was some kind of
1:45:29external inter interference because the
1:45:31Russians interfered and had an impact
1:45:33Putin himself thinks at that time it's
1:45:35one of the reasons why he interferes in
1:45:37our elections later that the United
1:45:38States and others had interfere because
1:45:40he knew that people weren't that
1:45:42thrilled about him coming back it kind
1:45:44of like the Medvedev period and the
1:45:46protests and Moscow and Saint Petersburg
1:45:49and other major cities he starts to
1:45:51believe we're instigated by the west by
1:45:52the outside
1:45:53because of you know funding for
1:45:55um transparency in elections and you
1:45:58know all of the ngos and others you know
1:46:01they're operating State departments
1:46:02Embassy funding you know the and the you
1:46:05know the whole attitudes of God is back
1:46:07you know kind of thing
1:46:09and so after that we see Putin going on
1:46:11a very different footing it's also
1:46:13somewhere in that period
1:46:152011-2012 we start to kind of obsess
1:46:18about Ukraine
1:46:19and he's always you know I think being
1:46:21kind of steeped in that whole view of
1:46:22Russian history I mean I heard at that
1:46:24time I was in I've written about this
1:46:26and many of the things that you know
1:46:27I've written about Putin that in that
1:46:29same time frame I'm going to all these
1:46:30conferences in Russia where Putin is and
1:46:32peskov his uh uh press secretary and
1:46:35they talk about him reading Russian
1:46:36history I think is this in this kind of
1:46:38poo that he formulates this idea
1:46:41of
1:46:43the necessity
1:46:44of reconstituting the Russian World the
1:46:47Russian Empire he's obviously been very
1:46:49interested in this he's always said of
1:46:51course at the collapse of the Soviet
1:46:52Union was the great catastrophe of 20th
1:46:54century but also the collapse of the
1:46:55Russian Empire before it and he starts
1:46:57to be critical about lending the
1:46:58Bolsheviks and he starts to do all this
1:47:00talking about Ukraine
1:47:03as
1:47:04the same country ukrainians and Russians
1:47:07being one and the same and this is where
1:47:08the Ledger flips because I mean the
1:47:09initial question you asked me is about
1:47:11has Russia has Putin been good for
1:47:13Russia or not and this is where we get
1:47:15into the uh focal point of uh or the
1:47:18point where he's not focusing on the
1:47:20prosperity instability and future of
1:47:23Russia but he starts to obsess about the
1:47:25past
1:47:26and you start to take things in a very
1:47:29different direction he starts to clamp
1:47:31down at home because of the rise of
1:47:34opposition and the fact that he knows
1:47:36that his you know brand is not the same
1:47:39as it was before his popularity is not
1:47:41the same as it was before because he's
1:47:43already gone over that you know that
1:47:45period in
1:47:46anybody's you know professional and you
1:47:48know political life that you know if you
1:47:50stay around long enough people get a bit
1:47:51sick of you you know it's just we talked
1:47:53about that before should you stay you
1:47:54know kind of in any job for a long
1:47:56period of time you need refreshing and
1:47:58you know kind of Putin is you know
1:47:59starting to look like he's going to be
1:48:01there forever and people are not happy
1:48:02about that and would like the chance as
1:48:05well to kind of move on and move up and
1:48:06you know with him and still in place
1:48:08that's not going to be uh particularly
1:48:10possible and that you know it's around
1:48:12the time when he starts to make that
1:48:13decision of annexing Crimea and that's
1:48:15when the whole thing flips in my view
1:48:17the annexation of Crimea in 2014 is the
1:48:21beginning of the end
1:48:22of you know Vladimir Putin being a
1:48:25positive force within Russia because if
1:48:28you
1:48:29pay very close attention
1:48:31to his speech on the annexation of
1:48:35Crimea
1:48:37in March of 2014 you see all the
1:48:39foreshadowing of you know where we are
1:48:41now it's already of kind of his view of
1:48:43kind of his obsessions his historical
1:48:45obsessions his view of himself has been
1:48:47kind of fused with the state that kind
1:48:48of a modern Czar and his idea that the
1:48:50West is up to get him and it becomes
1:48:52after that almost a kind of like a
1:48:54Messianic Mission you know to turn
1:48:56things in a different direction
1:48:58and who are the key people
1:49:02to you in in this
1:49:04evolution of the human being of the
1:49:07leader is it patriciaf is it showing you
1:49:11the minister of defense is it like you
1:49:13mentioned pescal the press secretary uh
1:49:15what role do some of the others like
1:49:17lavrov play
1:49:19I think it's more rich ER context I mean
1:49:21individuals may also in that context but
1:49:23it's just kind of like the shared
1:49:24worldview and if you go back to the
1:49:26early 1990s immediately after the
1:49:28dissolution of the Soviet Union when
1:49:29Yeltsin you know and
1:49:31uh the uh has come to pass me crane
1:49:34Bellerose pull it apart there was an
1:49:35awful lot of people who you know wanted
1:49:37to maintain the Soviet Union not just
1:49:39Putin I mean you remember after uh
1:49:42Gorbachev tried to have the new Union
1:49:43treaty
1:49:45um in um 1991 and there was the
1:49:48emergency committee set up the coup
1:49:49against Gorbachev it was because they
1:49:51were worried he was going too far and
1:49:53unraveling you know the union then as
1:49:55well they were opposed to his reforms
1:49:57there's always been a kind of a very
1:49:59strong nationalist contingent that
1:50:02became Russian nationalists over time
1:50:03rather than Soviet you know hardliners
1:50:06who you know basically want to maintain
1:50:09the Empire the Union in some form and in
1:50:12the very early part of the 1990s there
1:50:14was a lot of pressure put on Ukraine and
1:50:15all the other former Soviet republics
1:50:18now independent states by people around
1:50:20you know melushkov for example in Moscow
1:50:23by you know other forces in the Russian
1:50:26uh Duma not just you know vladimirovsky
1:50:28and others but you know really serious
1:50:30you know kind of what we would call him
1:50:32like right wing you know nationalist
1:50:34forces but it's you know pervasive in
1:50:37the system and it's especially
1:50:39perversive in the kg being in the
1:50:41security sector and that's where Putin
1:50:44comes out of remember Putin also was of
1:50:47the opinion that one of the biggest
1:50:48mistakes the Bolsheviks made was getting
1:50:50rid of the Orthodox Church as an
1:50:53instrument of the state
1:50:55and so there's this kind of
1:50:56restorationist wing within the security
1:50:59services and the state apparatus the
1:51:01ones who kind of bring back Russian
1:51:03Orthodoxy as a state instrument an
1:51:05instrument of state power and they were
1:51:07kind of you know looking all the time
1:51:08about strengthening the state uh the
1:51:12executive the the presidency and and so
1:51:15it's everybody who takes part in that
1:51:17and it's also where there's more power
1:51:19honestly and they see Putin as their
1:51:21vehicle for power I think people like
1:51:23Sergey kirienko I knew kirienko back in
1:51:25the 90s I mean my God that guy's all in
1:51:27or like Dimitri medvedith
1:51:30you know who was you know a warmer
1:51:31fuzzier version of Putin certainly had a
1:51:34totally different perspective wasn't in
1:51:35the KGB did you say warmer fuzzy fuzzier
1:51:38version yeah I mean he's kind of like he
1:51:39was literally a warm personality I don't
1:51:41know if he watched him during the
1:51:43September 30th annexation the guy had
1:51:44all kinds of facial twitches and looked
1:51:47so rigid and stiff that he looks like he
1:51:48might implode I mean that wasn't you
1:51:51know how he was you know earlier in his
1:51:53career and he you know had a different
1:51:55view of Paris Striker we always have to
1:51:56remember that Putin was not in Russia
1:51:58during parastrike he was in Dresden
1:52:00watching the um East German State Fall
1:52:03Apart and you know dealing with the
1:52:05starsy in a kind of place where you
1:52:07weren't getting a lot of information
1:52:08about what was happening in West Germany
1:52:10or even what was happening back home in
1:52:11perestroika and he has that kind of
1:52:14group of people around him the Patra
1:52:16chefs and botany cuffs and others and
1:52:19Sergey van off and others you know from
1:52:21you know the different configurations of
1:52:23his administration who have come out of
1:52:26that same kind of mindset and are kind
1:52:28of you know wanting to put everything
1:52:29back together again so there's a lot of
1:52:31enablers there's a lot of you know power
1:52:33Seekers and there are a lot of people
1:52:36who you know think the same as him as
1:52:38well he is a man of his times a man of
1:52:40his context
1:52:43you as a top advisor yourself and and a
1:52:46scholar of Putin do you think it
1:52:48actually now in his inner circle are
1:52:51there people he trusts there are people
1:52:53he trusts for some things
1:52:55but I don't think there's people who
1:52:56trust for everything I don't think it's
1:52:57the kind of person who tells anyone
1:52:58everything at all I don't think he's got
1:53:01something ever deeply confides I know
1:53:02he'll he's he's com he I think he
1:53:04compartmentalizes things he's often said
1:53:06that the only person who trust is
1:53:07himself
1:53:08I think that's probably true he's the
1:53:10kind of person who keeps his own counsel
1:53:12I mean people talk about Kovalchuk for
1:53:14example or you know kind of some of the
1:53:16other people who are you know friends uh
1:53:18with him that kind of go back to his
1:53:19time in Saint Petersburg you know at
1:53:22various points he seem to you know spend
1:53:24a lot of time you know way back when
1:53:26talking to people who are you know
1:53:27people think of kind of more moderating
1:53:29forces like Alexia kudrin but you know
1:53:31it doesn't seem to be interacting you
1:53:33know with them you know there are
1:53:35obviously aspects of his personal life
1:53:37you know does he
1:53:38speak to his daughters does he you know
1:53:41speak to you know kind of
1:53:43lovers you know kind of in a way of
1:53:46people speculate about you know kind of
1:53:48who might be confide in but I would
1:53:49greatly doubt that he would have deep
1:53:51political discussions with them he's a
1:53:53very guarded uh very careful person what
1:53:57about sources of information then so
1:53:59trust a deep understanding about
1:54:02military strategies with
1:54:06um for certain conflicts like the war in
1:54:08Ukraine or even special
1:54:09uh subsets of the war in Ukraine or any
1:54:14kind of military operations getting
1:54:16clear information deeply suspicious you
1:54:19know of
1:54:19under of information
1:54:22and I think in a part of of the problems
1:54:26that you know we see with Putin now
1:54:29I mean I've come from isolation during
1:54:32covet I'm I'm really convinced that you
1:54:34know like many of us
1:54:36you know a lot of Putin's views have
1:54:38hardened
1:54:39and the way that he looks at the world
1:54:41have been
1:54:43shuddered in very dark Ways by the
1:54:46experience of this pandemic
1:54:48you know obviously he was in a bubble
1:54:50different kind of bubble for most of us
1:54:51I mean most of us are not bubbles with
1:54:53multiple you know kind of palaces and
1:54:55you know kind of the Kremlin
1:54:57but you know we've seen you know so much
1:54:59obviously a lot of this is staged that
1:55:01isolation you know they're kind of
1:55:02making it very clear that he's the Tsar
1:55:04the guy who is in charge making all the
1:55:06decisions you know one end of the table
1:55:07and everybody else is at the other end
1:55:08but you know it's very difficult then to
1:55:11bring you know information to him in
1:55:13that way he used to have a lot of
1:55:15information bundled for him in the old
1:55:17days by the presidential Administration
1:55:19I mean I know that because it was a lot
1:55:20more open in the past and I have a lot
1:55:22of meetings with people in the
1:55:24presidential Administration who brought
1:55:25outside you know would say all Source
1:55:27information you know for him and you
1:55:29know kind of funneled in information
1:55:31from different think tanks and
1:55:33you know different viewpoints and
1:55:36maybe a kind of more eclectic
1:55:38Diversified set of information you would
1:55:40meet with people you know you've heard
1:55:42all the stories about where he had once
1:55:44called a Masha gessen you know and had a
1:55:46you know come in you know obviously a
1:55:48you know a very different character as a
1:55:51journalist and a Critic you know we've
1:55:53heard about benedictive from Echo
1:55:55Muscovy the you know the radio program
1:55:57the the editor who uh Putin would you
1:56:00know talk to and consult with he he'd
1:56:02Reach Out people
1:56:04um like Elizabeth alexieva for example
1:56:07the head of Memorial he had some respect
1:56:08for her and would you know sometimes
1:56:10just you know talk to her you know for
1:56:12example all of that seems to have
1:56:14come to a halt
1:56:15and I think I think a lot of us worry I
1:56:18mean us who you know watch Putin about
1:56:20what kind of information is he getting
1:56:21you know is it is it just the
1:56:23information that he's seeking and
1:56:24Gathering himself that fits into his
1:56:26worldview and his framework we're all
1:56:28guilty of that of looking for things it
1:56:30gets to our social media preferences are
1:56:32people just bring into him things that
1:56:34they think he wants to hear like the
1:56:35algorithm you know kind of like the
1:56:37Kremlin working in that regard was he
1:56:39himself you know tapping into sorts of
1:56:41information that he absolutely wants and
1:56:44remember he is not a military guy
1:56:46he's a not preserved and he was sort of
1:56:48trained in operations and you know
1:56:50contingency planning
1:56:52Sergey the defense minister as a civil
1:56:54engineer was the former minister of
1:56:56emergencies it wasn't a military planner
1:56:58you know somebody like um the head of
1:57:01the
1:57:03Chiefs of Staff maybe a military guy you
1:57:05know in this you know case from the Army
1:57:07but he's also somebody who's in a
1:57:10different part the churn of command he's
1:57:11not somebody who would spontaneously
1:57:13start you know telling Putin things and
1:57:16Putin you know comes out of the FSB out
1:57:19of the KGB of the Soviet era and he
1:57:21knows the way that you know intelligence
1:57:23get filtered and worked he's probably
1:57:24somebody wants to consume raw
1:57:25intelligence he doesn't probably want to
1:57:27hear anybody else's analysis and he
1:57:30survived in the past of you know picking
1:57:32things up from people you know I've
1:57:34taken part in all of these meetings with
1:57:36him gone for hours because he's just
1:57:37collecting he's collecting information
1:57:38he's sussing people out he wants to know
1:57:41the questions they ask he learned
1:57:43something about the questions that
1:57:44people ask the way that they ask them
1:57:45you know so he's kind of soliciting
1:57:48information himself and if he's cut off
1:57:49from that information
1:57:51you know because of circumstances
1:57:53then you know how is he formulating
1:57:55things in his head and again getting
1:57:57into you can't get into his head but you
1:57:59can understand the context in which he's
1:58:01operating and that's where you worry
1:58:03because he clearly made this decision to
1:58:05invade Ukraine behind the back of most
1:58:07of his security establishment
1:58:11you think so oh I think it's pretty
1:58:13apparent oh what uh what would the
1:58:17security establishment will be well that
1:58:19would be the larger you know thinking
1:58:20the funneling in information from the uh
1:58:22presidential Administration from the
1:58:24National Security
1:58:25it's like you know he made that decision
1:58:28and then you know having worked in these
1:58:30kinds of environments and it's not that
1:58:31dissimilar you filter information up so
1:58:34think about you know you and I are
1:58:36talking for hours here
1:58:38um if if you were my you know uh
1:58:41basically
1:58:43um you know senior official and I'm your
1:58:44briefer I might only get 20 minutes with
1:58:46you
1:58:47and you might be just like you know
1:58:49looking at your watch the whole time and
1:58:50thinking hang on a second I've got to go
1:58:52and I've got this meeting and I've got
1:58:53that meeting and yeah your point you're
1:58:56not going to wait there so I give this
1:58:58long explanation I've got to get to the
1:58:59point and then I've got to then choose
1:59:01for myself what's the information I'm
1:59:03going to impart to you out of the 20
1:59:05things I think are important
1:59:07you know okay I've got 20 minutes maybe
1:59:09I only get two minutes maybe you know
1:59:11you get called out and somebody you know
1:59:14kind of interrupts something happens I'm
1:59:16gonna get one minute two minutes yeah I
1:59:18mean I want to remember I had to give a
1:59:20presentation when I was in government
1:59:21you know to um Henry Kissinger you know
1:59:24for that defense policy board and we
1:59:26plan bloody weeks on this thing you know
1:59:28PowerPoints were created teams of people
1:59:31were brought together
1:59:32and you know people were practicing this
1:59:34we had all these you know different
1:59:35people there and I said look Henry
1:59:38Kissinger is an academic and former
1:59:39professor and you know I happened to you
1:59:41know I'm gonna watch him in action he's
1:59:43gonna like
1:59:45you know five seconds in if we'll if
1:59:47we're lucky we get that far ask us a
1:59:49question and just throw off our entire
1:59:50presentation what is it that we want to
1:59:52convey and that's exactly what happened
1:59:54and then you know people aren't really
1:59:55prepared what they wanted to convey and
1:59:57they're you know they'd be prepared uh
1:59:59you know a nice sort of fulsome you know
2:00:01PowerPoint like approach we never even
2:00:03got there and so God knows what you know
2:00:05he took away from it at the end of it
2:00:07and that's you know think about Putin
2:00:09he's going to be kind of impatient he's
2:00:11you know we see the televised things
2:00:13where he you know kind of sits at a
2:00:14table a bit like you know people won't
2:00:16necessarily see us here and he puts his
2:00:18hands on the tip and he looks across at
2:00:20the person who says so tell me
2:00:22you know what's the main things I need
2:00:24to know and of course the person's mind
2:00:26probably goes blank you know with the
2:00:28kind of the thought of like oh God
2:00:30what's the main thing yeah and they go
2:00:31and they start well Vladimir
2:00:32vladimirovich and you know they they
2:00:34start the kind of you know they're
2:00:36revving up you know to get to the point
2:00:38and then he cuts them off so you think
2:00:40about that and then you think about well
2:00:42what information has he got and then how
2:00:44does he process it and is he suspicious
2:00:46of it does he not believe it
2:00:48and what inside of his own history then
2:00:51you know leads him to make one judgment
2:00:53over another he clearly thought the
2:00:55acronyms would fall apart in five
2:00:56seconds
2:00:58we don't know if he clearly thought that
2:01:00but that there was a uh
2:01:03high probability maybe I mean I think he
2:01:06pretty much thought it because I think
2:01:07he thought that you know kind of his
2:01:09silencer wasn't very popular there was
2:01:11an awful lot of you know pro-russian
2:01:13sentiment and whatever where he thinks
2:01:15that is because people are Russian
2:01:16speakers and that you know they're kind
2:01:18of you know in polling that you know
2:01:21they're expressed Affinity with Russia I
2:01:23mean certainly in Crimea
2:01:25um that worked out because a majority of
2:01:27the population had you know higher
2:01:29Sentiments of feelings of affinity with
2:01:31Russia and you know obviously you know
2:01:34that that kind of they got traction
2:01:35there but it's more complicated we
2:01:37talked about donbass before about being
2:01:39a you know kind of Melting Pot when you
2:01:41know they tried the same thing in donbas
2:01:42Donetsk because it tried in Crimea in
2:01:452014 didn't kind of pan out in fact you
2:01:47know a whole war broke out they tried
2:01:50you know to kind of in
2:01:52um uh you know many of the major cities
2:01:54in our under attack including Odessa to
2:01:56kind of ferment you know pro-russian
2:01:58movements and they're completely and
2:02:00ugly fell apart so Putin was thinking
2:02:03and I'm pretty sure based on polling and
2:02:05the FSB having infiltrated you know an
2:02:08awful lot of the Ukrainian hierarchies
2:02:10we're now seeing is quite apparent with
2:02:11some of the dismissals in Ukraine he was
2:02:14pretty sure that you know kind of he
2:02:17would get traction and that it would be
2:02:19like 1956 in Hungary or 1968 and check
2:02:22as if I can remember he comes out of the
2:02:24and drop-off uh Levy as it's called the
2:02:27kind of cohort of people who come and
2:02:29under under the KGB under Yuri and drop
2:02:31off and you're on top of us presided
2:02:33over a lot of these anti-discidant you
2:02:36know kind of movements inside of Russia
2:02:37itself and how you suppress opposition
2:02:39but also over you know how you deal with
2:02:43um you know kind of the uprisings in you
2:02:45know Czechoslovakia and Hungary and
2:02:47there's all these lessons from this that
2:02:49you know you can put everything back in
2:02:50the box and yeah there might be a bit of
2:02:52violence and a bit of fighting but
2:02:54ultimately you you think you've got the
2:02:56political figures and you decapitate the
2:02:58opposition so they thought you've let
2:02:59you know zielinski would run away yeah
2:03:02kovich ran away but you know Bob was
2:03:04kind of a bit you know sort of a
2:03:06different set of circumstances and they
2:03:09thought that all of the local
2:03:10governments would you know kind of
2:03:11capitulate because they had enough
2:03:12Russians and inverted commas in there
2:03:15again mistaking language
2:03:18and you know kind of positive Affinity
2:03:20towards Russia for identity or how
2:03:22people would react in the time and not
2:03:24understanding people's
2:03:25you know linkages and you know kind of
2:03:27importance of place the way that people
2:03:29feel about who they are in a certain set
2:03:31of circumstances in a place
2:03:34but the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 is
2:03:38unlike anything
2:03:40that he was ever involved with so but I
2:03:44don't think he thought it would be you
2:03:45know because it's this kind of if he
2:03:47looks back into the past you're right
2:03:48though he wasn't involved in 68 or 56 or
2:03:52what happened in the 1980s in Poland but
2:03:54there's a very wide front and it's the
2:03:57capital and I mean this isn't going for
2:04:00this isn't chitch now this isn't you
2:04:01know kind of Syria or for example this
2:04:03is a major Innovation exactly like a lot
2:04:06it's large to the size it was more like
2:04:08Afghanistan but they didn't realize that
2:04:10because again ukrainians are us this is
2:04:13kind of inability to think that people
2:04:16might think differently and might want
2:04:18something different and that 30 years of
2:04:21Independence actually has an impact on
2:04:23people and there's psyches and
2:04:25if I look back to the 1990s I mean I
2:04:27remember being in seminars in at Harvard
2:04:30at the time and we were doing a lot of
2:04:31research on
2:04:33you know what was happening in you know
2:04:36the former Soviet Union at the time
2:04:37because the early 1990s just after the
2:04:39you know the whole place fell apart
2:04:42and there was already under Yelps in
2:04:43this kind of idea of Russians abroad
2:04:46Russians in the near abroad Russian
2:04:47speakers and the need to bring them back
2:04:49in
2:04:50and I remember you know we had seminars
2:04:52at the time when we talked about at some
2:04:54point there'd be some people in Russia
2:04:56that would actually believe that
2:04:59those Russian speakers needed to be
2:05:00brought back into Russia but that the
2:05:02people who spoke Russia might have moved
2:05:04on because they certainly had other
2:05:05opportunities in other windows on the
2:05:07world I mean look what's happened in
2:05:09Scotland you know for example most
2:05:10people in Scotland speak English
2:05:13the Scottish language is not the
2:05:16standard bearer of Scottish identity
2:05:18there's just it's almost a civic
2:05:20identity a different identity than not
2:05:22just national identity just like you see
2:05:23in Ukraine and there's lots of English
2:05:25people that have moved to Scotland and
2:05:27now think of themselves as Scottish and
2:05:28Brazilians or Italians and you know all
2:05:30kinds of people who've moved in there um
2:05:32it's a smaller population obviously it's
2:05:34not the scale of uh Ukraine but
2:05:37you know people feel differently and
2:05:39there's been a Devolution of power and
2:05:41when brexit happened you know Scotland
2:05:44didn't want to go along with that at all
2:05:45and wanted to kind of still be you know
2:05:47having a window on Europe and that's
2:05:50kind of historic and lots of people in
2:05:52Ukraine have locked west not East
2:05:54you know it depends on where you are not
2:05:56not just in
2:05:57uh lavif you know or somewhere like that
2:06:00but also in Kiev and and how to keep you
2:06:02know was kind of predominantly a
2:06:03russian-speaking city but harcave was
2:06:05also the center of Ukrainian culture and
2:06:08Ukrainian literature you know different
2:06:10points people have different views I
2:06:12grew up in the north of England we don't
2:06:14feel like the south of England there's
2:06:15been a massive divide between north and
2:06:17south and England for Millennia not just
2:06:19centuries so you know people feel
2:06:22differently depending on where they live
2:06:24and you know kind of where they grew up
2:06:25and Putin just
2:06:27didn't see that so he didn't see that
2:06:28well hold on a second let me sort of
2:06:31push back at the fact that I don't think
2:06:34any of this is obvious so first of all
2:06:37zelansky before the war was unpopular oh
2:06:40it was what was it 38 something like
2:06:41that
2:06:43Liberty yeah
2:06:44yeah let me uh sort of make the case
2:06:46that the the calculation here
2:06:48uh is is very difficult if you were to
2:06:51pull
2:06:53every citizen of Ukraine and ask them
2:06:55what do you think happens if Russia
2:06:57invades
2:06:59just like actually each put each
2:07:02individual Ukrainian in a one-on-one
2:07:04meeting with Putin and say what do you
2:07:05think happens
2:07:07I honestly think most of them will say
2:07:09that they will agree
2:07:11with a prediction that the government
2:07:13would flee with collapse and the the
2:07:16country won't Unite
2:07:18uh around the cause because of the
2:07:21factions because of all the different
2:07:22parties involved because of the
2:07:24popularity might have said the same
2:07:25thing about the Soviet Union when Hitler
2:07:28invaded in 1941
2:07:31you see the problem is Putin always
2:07:33reads history from one perspective over
2:07:35another I think most countries
2:07:39basically rise to their own defense
2:07:41so this is actually one of the first
2:07:43times that Russia has been on the
2:07:45offensive
2:07:46rather than on the defensive
2:07:50you know so there's kind of a bit of a
2:07:51flip there
2:07:53I mean obviously Afghanistan but you
2:07:55know that was more complicated because
2:07:56it was operative it's also supposed to
2:07:57be an intervention right I mean it
2:07:58wasn't supposed to be to Annex
2:08:00Afghanistan it was to right try to you
2:08:02know prop up you know kind of our
2:08:04reinstall of you know a leader there
2:08:07Syria you were in there to you know help
2:08:09your guy Bashar al-assad you know turn
2:08:12away the opposition chechnya was a
2:08:14debacle the chechens fought back big
2:08:18time and it was only by didn't of you
2:08:20know a horrible violent persistence
2:08:24and ruthlessness and nasty dirty tricks
2:08:28that
2:08:29um you know kind of Putin prevailed
2:08:31there but and then you know you wonder
2:08:32did he Prevail because what happened
2:08:34in a church now sometimes describes the
2:08:36most independent part of the Russian
2:08:38Federation and ramazan khadirov and it
2:08:40plays power games in Moscow yeah his
2:08:43predecessors
2:08:44um even his father and others wouldn't
2:08:46have done that
2:08:47and you know before that the dayaf and
2:08:50mosgardev I mean they were willing to
2:08:52make a compromise but you know they
2:08:54wouldn't have had you know the same
2:08:55position that uh khadira has had so you
2:08:59know I think that again it's it's your
2:09:01perspective and where you stand and what
2:09:02which bit of History you start to read
2:09:05and that's why I said that you know I
2:09:06kind of think Putin
2:09:07it's again it's the information the word
2:09:09that he processes it I think most
2:09:11Russians also can't believe that they've
2:09:13done something wrong on Ukraine I mean
2:09:15maybe at this point things are changing
2:09:16a bit but that's why there was you know
2:09:19so much kind of support for this in a
2:09:21right way I mean I have Russian friends
2:09:22again I said but look what you know was
2:09:23happening and done yet look what was um
2:09:25you know the ukrainians were doing to
2:09:27our guys
2:09:29you know look what was happening to
2:09:30Russian speakers
2:09:32you know we were Defenders
2:09:34we were not you know we're not Invaders
2:09:37I think you know again the special
2:09:38military operation you know idea now I
2:09:40think it's flipping obviously in the way
2:09:42that with the war going on there but
2:09:44Putin wasn't you know kind of looking at
2:09:46what would happen
2:09:48I mean most of the kind of Glory parts
2:09:50of Russian history when you kind of go
2:09:52in you know you chase Napoleon back to
2:09:54Paris or you chased the Germans back to
2:09:57Berlin you put the flag above the
2:09:58reichstag that's a very different set of
2:10:01Affairs only been fighting a defensive
2:10:03one you've been invaded from a world
2:10:05where you invade someone else
2:10:10and even the most fractured populations
2:10:12like you had in the Soviet Union the
2:10:14point rally round and you know World War
2:10:16One the the fell apart I mean the Czar
2:10:19didn't manage to Rally everybody around
2:10:21when the whole thing fell apart
2:10:23and World War II Stalin had to you know
2:10:27revive nationalism
2:10:29including in the republics in Central
2:10:31Asia and elsewhere to revive nationalism
2:10:35and Ukraine suddenly found nationalism
2:10:37you know in a kind of Senses that's
2:10:38really interesting thing because it's
2:10:40not it's not obvious especially what
2:10:42ukrainians went through in the 1930s
2:10:46it's not obvious that that I mean my
2:10:48grandfather was Ukrainian and he was
2:10:51proud to fight
2:10:53a Ukrainian Jew he was proud to fight
2:10:57and willing to die for his country it
2:11:00wasn't like his country then was the
2:11:02Soviet Union the Soviet Union right
2:11:04sorry to clarify but he might fight now
2:11:06for his country Ukraine yes but it I'm
2:11:10just like uh lingering and the point you
2:11:12made it was not obvious
2:11:14that that United feeling would be there
2:11:18no and again it wouldn't have been
2:11:19obvious with the Soviet Union so yeah
2:11:22that's what I'm saying sorry I was
2:11:23referring to my grandfather with the
2:11:24Soviet Union we're both saying the exact
2:11:26same thing yeah no yeah it's a really
2:11:29powerful thing because I take it because
2:11:30you take history as it happened
2:11:33you don't realize it's going to happen
2:11:34differently it's kind of it's fast it's
2:11:37that whole counterfactual right yeah
2:11:39yeah because I mean if you if you've
2:11:40kind of that's that's why we all need in
2:11:42the United States to really examine our
2:11:44own history
2:11:45because you know there's a lot of
2:11:47lessons from that
2:11:48but you know we we should treat very
2:11:51cautiously it doesn't mean that you know
2:11:52history repeats or even Rhymes you know
2:11:54the old Axiom all the time but there are
2:11:57a lot of things that you can take away
2:11:59differently from
2:12:01putting a different perspective in a
2:12:03different slant on the same set of
2:12:05events I mean I was used to wonder like
2:12:06how many books can be written on the
2:12:07French Revolution or even on the Russian
2:12:09Revolution you know I studied with
2:12:10Richard pipes I remember he was really
2:12:12offended after he'd written his grip
2:12:14microserpas on the Russian Revolution
2:12:15two volumes other people would you know
2:12:17kind of write about the Russian
2:12:18Revolution so I've written it all and I
2:12:19thought well actually maybe I haven't
2:12:21you know it's like that might be some
2:12:23completely different angle there that
2:12:24you haven't really thought of and that's
2:12:25Putin you know I remember peskov saying
2:12:28Putin reads history all the time Russian
2:12:30history and I thought well maybe she'd
2:12:31read some world history you know maybe
2:12:33he should you know kind of uh read some
2:12:36European authors on Russian history not
2:12:38just you know reading La manosa for you
2:12:40know Russian
2:12:42um historians on Russian history because
2:12:44you might see something from a very
2:12:45different perspective and look in the
2:12:47United States made a massive mistake in
2:12:48Vietnam right
2:12:50I mean there's so Vietnam is kind of
2:12:53weak manipulated by you know kind of
2:12:55external forces China's Soviet Union
2:12:58but the Vietnamese fought for their own
2:13:00country
2:13:01they suddenly became Vietnamese and Ho
2:13:04Chi Minh became you know gonna basically
2:13:06a kind of a wartime fighter and leader
2:13:09you know in a way that you know perhaps
2:13:10people wouldn't have understood either
2:13:12you said uh you know it's these men have
2:13:15massive mistake uh in Vietnam in that
2:13:18for some reason sprung a thought in my
2:13:20head
2:13:21as the United States since World War II
2:13:25uh had anything that's not a mistake in
2:13:28terms of military operations uh abroad
2:13:33um I I suppose all the ones that are
2:13:35successes
2:13:36we don't even know about probably so
2:13:39it's like very fast military operations
2:13:41I mean Korea is divided I mean I don't
2:13:43know if it's successful but you know you
2:13:45know kind of I mean there was a solution
2:13:47found that you know some people are
2:13:48promoting you know in this case as well
2:13:50of a sort of division and a you know the
2:13:52DMZ and you know one side over the other
2:13:55and you know kind of perpetuating a
2:13:56division which
2:13:58particularly successful but if you think
2:13:59about World War one and World War II the
2:14:01United States came in you know on some
2:14:04very specific sets of circumstances in
2:14:06World War one they did kind of come in
2:14:08to help you know kind of liberate you
2:14:10know parts of Europe France and you know
2:14:12kind of this is the UK and you know
2:14:14everything else Great Britain and the
2:14:16war towards the end of it World War II
2:14:18you know if there was that whole debate
2:14:20about whether the United States should
2:14:21even be part of the war I mean we know
2:14:23it wasn't thought to you know overturn
2:14:26the Holocaust and all of the kind of
2:14:27things you kind of wish it would be
2:14:28fought for but it was because of Pearl
2:14:30Harbor and you know the Japanese pulling
2:14:32in but I mean ultimately
2:14:34it was easy to explain
2:14:37why you were there you know particularly
2:14:38after Pearl Harbor and what had happened
2:14:40it was harder to explain Vietnam and
2:14:42career and you know many that there
2:14:43wasn't that's kind of going to be a
2:14:44problem for Putin that's why there is a
2:14:46problem for Putin all of his
2:14:47explanations of
2:14:50being questioned
2:14:51you know started off on NATO or this or
2:14:54that or the other and you know kind of
2:14:56all liberating you know Ukraine from
2:14:58Nazis or you know kind of basically
2:15:01stopping the persecution of Russian
2:15:02speakers and all of this has now got
2:15:05lost in just this horrific destruction
2:15:08and that's what happened in Vietnam as
2:15:10well
2:15:11I became you know a a great degradation
2:15:14of the Russian military with atrocities
2:15:17and you know people wondering why on
2:15:19Earth the United States was in Vietnam
2:15:22I mean even that kind of happened in
2:15:23Britain in the colonial you know kind of
2:15:25pivot as well why was the United Kingdom
2:15:28doing you know committing atrocities and
2:15:30you know kind of basically fighting
2:15:31these colonial wars
2:15:33Northern Ireland why was the United
2:15:35Kingdom still
2:15:37you know kind of military occupying
2:15:40Island Cyprus there's all kinds of you
2:15:42know instances where we look at these
2:15:43things because what Russia is doing now
2:15:45Putin is trying to occupy
2:15:47another country irrespective of you know
2:15:50kind of the historical linkages and you
2:15:52know the kind of the larger meta
2:15:54narratives that he's trying to put
2:15:55forward there
2:15:58what brawl did the United States play in
2:16:02the lead up and the actual invasion of
2:16:06um of Ukraine by Russia a lot of people
2:16:10say that I mean obviously Vladimir Putin
2:16:13says that part of the reason the
2:16:16invasion had to happen is because of
2:16:18security concerns over the expansion of
2:16:20NATO
2:16:21and
2:16:23there is a lot of people that say that
2:16:26this was provoked by NATO
2:16:29do you think there's some legitimacy to
2:16:31that case
2:16:32look I think the whole situation here is
2:16:34very complicated you have to take a much
2:16:36longer view than you know what happened
2:16:38in you know 2008 with the open door for
2:16:40Ukraine and Georgia which actually by
2:16:42the way I thought was a strategic
2:16:43blunder just to be very clear because it
2:16:45wasn't any kind of thinking through
2:16:46about what the implications of that
2:16:47would be and you know what would
2:16:49actually mean for your current security
2:16:50and also bearing in mind what you know
2:16:53Putin had already said about NATO
2:16:54expansion they they came on the wake of
2:16:57the uh recognition by the United States
2:16:59pretty unilaterally of Kosovo and it
2:17:01also comes in the work of Laura
2:17:03mentioned before the inversion of Iraq
2:17:04which really is very
2:17:08important for understanding Putin's
2:17:10psyche
2:17:11so I think you know we have to go back
2:17:13you know much further than it's not just
2:17:14talking about kind of NATO and what that
2:17:17means
2:17:18NATO is part of the whole
2:17:20package of Ukraine going in a different
2:17:22direction from Russia just as though is
2:17:24the European Union remember the
2:17:25annexation of Crimea comes after
2:17:29Ukraine has sought an Association group
2:17:31agreement with the European Union
2:17:33not with an Airtel at that particular
2:17:35Point even though you know the EU on the
2:17:37security common security defense policy
2:17:40um basically house all kinds of
2:17:42connections with NATO you know various
2:17:45different levels in European security
2:17:46front it was all about Europe and
2:17:48going on a different economic and
2:17:50political and ultimately legal path
2:17:53because if you have
2:17:54an association agreement eventually you
2:17:57get into the aqui committee turn and it
2:17:58just transforms the country completely
2:18:00and Ukraine is no longer the Ukraine of
2:18:02the Soviet period or the Russian Empire
2:18:04period it becomes you know on a
2:18:06different trajectory like Czech Republic
2:18:08Slovakia Poland you know another country
2:18:13becomes a different place it moves into
2:18:15a different space and that's part of it
2:18:17but if you go back again
2:18:19to the period at the very beginning of
2:18:21the 1990s after the dissolution of the
2:18:25Soviet Union well there's no discussion
2:18:26about NATO at that point in NATO
2:18:28enlargement
2:18:29there is a lot of pressure again as I've
2:18:31said before by nationalist elements on
2:18:33Ukraine trying to bring it back in the
2:18:34fold
2:18:35and wanting to make what was then you
2:18:37know this mechanism for divorce more of
2:18:40a mechanism for remanaged Commonwealth
2:18:42of independent states
2:18:44and in the early 1990s when
2:18:48Ukraine became an independent state it
2:18:51inherited that nuclear Arsenal from the
2:18:54Soviet Union basically whatever was
2:18:55stationed or positioned in Ukrainian
2:18:58territory at the time became Ukraine's
2:19:00strategic and you know kind of basically
2:19:02intermediate and tactical nuclear
2:19:03weapons and you know in the United
2:19:05States at the time you know we had all
2:19:07this Panic about
2:19:08what was going to happen with all of
2:19:09that I mean I think you know I was a
2:19:11scientist and you know kind of
2:19:12technically it would have been difficult
2:19:13for Ukraine to actually use this I mean
2:19:16the targeting was you know done
2:19:17centrally they were actually stationed
2:19:19there but nonetheless Ukraine like
2:19:21Belarus and Kazakhstan to become nuclear
2:19:23powers
2:19:24and you know ashkata the former U.S
2:19:27defense I could use just died tragically
2:19:30and Dave was talking about
2:19:32um you know uh uh talking together today
2:19:35was part of a whole team of Americans
2:19:37and and others who
2:19:39you know tried to work with Ukraine
2:19:40Belarus and Kazakhstan to get them to
2:19:42give up the nuclear weapons
2:19:45and back in the early period of that 93
2:19:4894
2:19:50you go back and I mean I was writing
2:19:52about this at the time I wrote a report
2:19:53called Back in the USSR which is you
2:19:55know kind of on the website the Kennedy
2:19:57School with some other colleagues
2:19:59and we were monitoring how there was all
2:20:01these accusations coming out of of
2:20:02Moscow the defense um Ministry and the
2:20:05Duma the the Parliament and others that
2:20:07Ukraine was trying to find a way of
2:20:08making a dirty bomb using its nuclear
2:20:11weapons you know becoming a menace um
2:20:13and you know kind of Ukraine might have
2:20:14to be brought to order
2:20:16so a lot of the Dynamics we're seeing
2:20:18now were happening then irrespective of
2:20:20NATO
2:20:21basically the the problem was always
2:20:23Ukraine getting away Yeltsin himself
2:20:26when he unraveled the Soviet Union
2:20:28didn't really want it to unravel but he
2:20:30didn't have the wherewithal to bring you
2:20:31know the countries back again Russia was
2:20:33weak after the collapse of the Soviet
2:20:35Union its economy imploded
2:20:37um it had to give sovereignty to all of
2:20:39these constituent parts of the Russian
2:20:41Federation in terms of the sort of
2:20:42devolution of authority it had the war
2:20:44in chechnya which Yeltsin stupidly
2:20:46sparked off in
2:20:481994. you had Tata Stan one of the the
2:20:51regions the old Rich regions
2:20:53um you know basically resting out a kind
2:20:56of a a bilateral treaty with Moscow you
2:20:58had the whole place was kind of seemed
2:21:00like it was falling apart so that you
2:21:01know you couldn't do anything on Ukraine
2:21:03because you didn't have the wherewithal
2:21:05to do it and then when you know kind of
2:21:06basically Russia starts to get its act
2:21:08back together again all of these
2:21:11security
2:21:12nationalist types who had never wanted
2:21:15Ukraine or Belarus some older or
2:21:17anywhere else to kind of move away they
2:21:18didn't worry that much about Central
2:21:19Asia to be frank but they know they did
2:21:21one and you know the um the core States
2:21:24in their view to come back and Moldova
2:21:26was part of that even it's not Slavic
2:21:27but you know they wanted Belarus and
2:21:29Northern Kazakhstan and probably
2:21:31Kazakhstan as well which wasn't really
2:21:32thought about being part of Central Asia
2:21:34back in the fold as close as possible so
2:21:37anything that gave those countries an
2:21:40alternative was seen as negative
2:21:43uh it you know could have been an
2:21:44association with China you know of them
2:21:47joining you know kind of an association
2:21:49with Latin America or Africa or
2:21:51something else like that but of course
2:21:52NATO has all of those larger
2:21:54connotations of it being you know the
2:21:56Cold War uh opposing entity and Putin
2:21:59has always seen NATO as being the direct
2:22:02correlation of the Warsaw Pact which is
2:22:04in other words just something dominated
2:22:06completely by the United States
2:22:08now that of course is my getting back to
2:22:10Trump again Trump was always going you
2:22:12know to the Europeans if this is really
2:22:13supposed to be collective security in a
2:22:15mutual defense pact why are you guys not
2:22:16paying you know why does the United
2:22:18States pay for everything but you know
2:22:20NATO was actually conceived as
2:22:22collective defense you know Mutual
2:22:24Security and it was set up by you know
2:22:27the United States along with the UK and
2:22:29France and you know Germany and turkey
2:22:32and you know other countries and we see
2:22:34that now with the entry of Finland and
2:22:36Sweden they didn't have to join it or
2:22:38they didn't want to join it a long time
2:22:40they wanted to partner with it just like
2:22:41Israel and the other countries partner
2:22:43with um NATO but once they thought that
2:22:45their security was really at risk they
2:22:47wanted to be part of it
2:22:48and so you know kind of you're now
2:22:50really seeing you know that Nate was
2:22:52something other than just being
2:22:54um you know a creature or an instrument
2:22:57of the United States but that's how
2:22:58Putin always saw it so you know what
2:23:01this debate about Metro is all about or
2:23:04Russia being provoked
2:23:06is wanting to kind of return to an old
2:23:08superpower
2:23:09bipolar relationship where everything is
2:23:12negotiated with the United States it's
2:23:15to try to deny that Ukraine or Belarus
2:23:17well Belarus has been absorbed by this
2:23:19point you know by Russia or Moldova or
2:23:21Kazakhstan or any of the other countries
2:23:23have any kind of agency not even Poland
2:23:26or Hungary or you know kind of France
2:23:29and Britain
2:23:31for years and years and years
2:23:33senior people like Putin and people
2:23:35around the Kremlin have demanded a
2:23:37return to the kind of what they call the
2:23:39little concert of Europe or the concert
2:23:40of Vienna where the big guys
2:23:44which now means the United States and
2:23:46Russia just sit down and thrash
2:23:47everything out
2:23:48and so I mean Putin by saying look it
2:23:51was provoked it's the United States it's
2:23:53NATO it's a proxy war or it's it's this
2:23:56or it's that or this is going to be a
2:23:58nuclear confrontation it's like the
2:23:59Cuban Missile Crisis the Euro Missile
2:24:01Crisis it's basically just saying you
2:24:03know I want to go back to when the
2:24:05Soviet Union the United States worked
2:24:07things out I want to go back to the
2:24:09whole you know period of the 1980s when
2:24:10Gorbachev and Reagan just kind of got
2:24:12together and figured things out or even
2:24:14better back to Yalta Potsdam and Tehran
2:24:18and the big you know meetings
2:24:21at the end of World War II where we
2:24:23resolved the whole future security we've
2:24:25had a war we've had the Cold War now
2:24:26we've got another War we've got a real
2:24:28war Hot War we've got a war in Ukraine
2:24:29it should be the United States and
2:24:32Russia that sort this out so this is
2:24:34where we see the United States waffling
2:24:36about as well trying to kind of like
2:24:37figure out how to handle this because
2:24:40it has to be handled in a way that
2:24:41Ukraine has agency because if Ukraine
2:24:43doesn't have urgency and nobody else has
2:24:45urgency either nobody else has any kind
2:24:46of decision-making power
2:24:48and you know we have an environment in
2:24:50which Putin thinks that there's only
2:24:51really three players there's the United
2:24:53States and Russia and China and maybe
2:24:56even occasion might be India and perhaps
2:24:58Brazil or some other South Africa or
2:25:00some other country like maybe the brics
2:25:02at some point but you know ultimately
2:25:05it's like the oldest big Powers resolve
2:25:07everything and so this war is also about
2:25:10Russia's right Putin's right you know to
2:25:13determine things you know strong man to
2:25:16strong man big country to Big Country
2:25:17and you know determine you know where
2:25:20things happen next that's why he's
2:25:22talking about things being provoked it's
2:25:23being the United States fault but aren't
2:25:25there parts of the United States
2:25:28establishment that likes that kind of
2:25:32three-party view of the world oh there's
2:25:34always going to be people who like that
2:25:36part that
2:25:38which of course there is
2:25:39but then they don't necessarily dominate
2:25:41that's the kind of thing that people
2:25:42kind of think about I mean you know
2:25:44Putin can you know read you know all the
2:25:47various articles and hear the kind of
2:25:48pronouncements of people but you know
2:25:50this gets back to you know the way that
2:25:52the United States operates
2:25:54you know put Putin saw that you know
2:25:56Trump wanted to have a you know top-down
2:25:58you know vertical of power
2:26:00and other presidents have wanted to have
2:26:02that but the United States is a pretty
2:26:03messy place and we have all kinds of
2:26:05different viewpoints now of course we
2:26:07know that in Russia everything even
2:26:09criticism the Kremlin is usually fairly
2:26:11orchestrated usually to kind of flush
2:26:13out you know what people think about
2:26:15things when we had these hardliners
2:26:16saying you know we needed more
2:26:18destruction of Ukraine not less and that
2:26:20you know the Army wasn't doing enough it
2:26:22was in many respects you know kind of
2:26:23encouraged by the Kremlin and to see how
2:26:25people would react to that you know to
2:26:27kind of actually create a constituency
2:26:29for you know being more ruthless uh than
2:26:32you had before because you know they
2:26:33wanted to clamp down in the United
2:26:34States I mean I can say whatever I want
2:26:37it doesn't mean that I'm speaking on
2:26:38behalf of the White House
2:26:40and you know even if I have been an
2:26:42advisor to this president that president
2:26:44and the other doesn't mean I'm you know
2:26:46basically speaking on behalf of the US
2:26:48government but this is kind of always an
2:26:50assumption from the Russians that you
2:26:51know when people
2:26:53you know say this and people do Advocate
2:26:55one thing or over another that they're
2:26:57you know it's operating there's a lot of
2:26:59mirror Imaging thinking that you know
2:27:01we're operating in the same kind of way
2:27:03so yes there are of course
2:27:05constituencies who think like that and
2:27:07would love it you know to be back to
2:27:08that and there are many people out there
2:27:09with their own peace plans all kinds of
2:27:12people you know up there yeah to push
2:27:14this there does seem to be uh the engine
2:27:16of the military-industrial complex seems
2:27:18to give some fuel to the Hawks and they
2:27:23seem to create momentum in government
2:27:26yeah but other people do too I mean
2:27:28there's always you know kind of a check
2:27:30I mean again you believe in the tension
2:27:32of ideas because I think there was a lot
2:27:34of attention I mean I've seen it I've
2:27:35seen it inside of the government now you
2:27:36know and people can push back and that's
2:27:38why I speak out and I try to lay it out
2:27:40so that everybody can you know kind of
2:27:42figure out for themselves I said the
2:27:43same to you as I say to everybody this
2:27:45is how I see the situation and you know
2:27:48this is you know how we can analyze it
2:27:50here now look do I think that we've
2:27:52handled you know the whole Russia
2:27:54account you know fears
2:27:56well no we haven't I mean we've we've
2:27:59we've taken our eyes off the ball many
2:28:01times we've fail to understand the way
2:28:03that people like Putin think you know
2:28:05you talked earlier about you know we
2:28:07need to have empathy for you know all
2:28:08the people who like Trump or like Biden
2:28:10and some other thing we've got to have
2:28:12strategic empathy about Putin as well
2:28:14we've got to understand how the guy
2:28:15thinks and why he thinks like he does
2:28:18you know he he has got his own context
2:28:21and his own frame and his own rationale
2:28:23and he is rational he is a rational
2:28:25actor in his own context we've got to
2:28:28understand that we've got to understand
2:28:29that he would take offense at something
2:28:30and he would take action over something
2:28:32it doesn't mean to say that you know we
2:28:35are necessary to blame by taking actions
2:28:37but we are to blame when we don't
2:28:39understand the consequences of things
2:28:41that we do and act accordingly or you
2:28:44know take preventative action or
2:28:45recognize that something might happen as
2:28:47a result of something so you've been in
2:28:49the room with Putin
2:28:52um let me ask you for some advice
2:28:55and it's also just a good philosophical
2:28:57question for you or for me if I have a
2:28:59conversation with Vladimir Putin right
2:29:01now can you advise on what questions
2:29:03topics ideas to talk through to him as
2:29:07the leader to him as a human what would
2:29:09you like to understand about his mind
2:29:11about his thinking
2:29:15well I said that
2:29:18it tries to you know reverse things he
2:29:20wants to hear the questions that that
2:29:21people have
2:29:23because remember
2:29:25he himself at different points has been
2:29:27a recruiter which is you know the way
2:29:29that you're operating now as well right
2:29:30you're asking an awful lot of questions
2:29:32your questions also betray you know
2:29:34often the times that we're where you're
2:29:36thinking about things you know the kind
2:29:38of context
2:29:39um
2:29:40you know kind of any kind of dialogue
2:29:42like this reveals a lot about the you
2:29:44know the other person yeah and I've
2:29:46actually often you know noticed in these
2:29:49settings that Putin likes to have a lot
2:29:51of give and take so I think he would
2:29:52actually enjoy having a conversation you
2:29:54know with you but again he would always
2:29:57be trying to
2:29:59influence you inform and influence
2:30:02that's kind of you know part of the way
2:30:03that he always operates
2:30:05so what you would have to you know be
2:30:07trying to think about so what is it that
2:30:09you would want to elicit information
2:30:10from him you're trying to understand the
2:30:12guy's worldview and what we're trying to
2:30:14also understand is if there's any room
2:30:16there where he might compromise on
2:30:18something
2:30:20you know so if your goal was to go in
2:30:22there you know to talk about Ukraine at
2:30:24this particular moment
2:30:26I mean one of the problems that I've
2:30:28often seen in the sort of the meetings
2:30:29we've had with Putin just ends up in
2:30:31sort of mutual recriminations
2:30:33you know kind of know well what about
2:30:36what you've done or no you've done that
2:30:37about you know and um there's always
2:30:39this what about it I mean it often said
2:30:42well your thing that I've done this but
2:30:44you've done that the United States
2:30:46invaded Iraq what's the difference
2:30:48between you know what I'm doing and all
2:30:50of the things that you've been doing
2:30:51here
2:30:52I mean what you would have to try to do
2:30:54is kind of elicit information about why
2:30:57or what he is thinking about this
2:30:59particular moment in time and why he
2:31:01thinks it
2:31:03yeah the what about USM is a is a
2:31:06failure case I think that shows
2:31:08from all the interviews I've seen that
2:31:11with him that just shows that he doesn't
2:31:13trust the person on the other side no he
2:31:15doesn't right but I I I'm not cynical
2:31:18like people's they they seem to think
2:31:20he's some kind of KGB agent that doesn't
2:31:23trust anybody I disagree I think
2:31:25everybody's human
2:31:27and from my perspective I'm worried
2:31:30about
2:31:31what I've seen is I think whether it's
2:31:34covid whether it's
2:31:36uh
2:31:38are there aspects that I'm not aware of
2:31:40leading up to the invasion he seems to
2:31:43be less willing to have uh charismatic
2:31:47back and forth dialogue yeah an open
2:31:49discussion you know actually you know I
2:31:50said you asked me before about you know
2:31:52that issue of trust and he often says he
2:31:54only trusts himself
2:31:55and I said you know he's often in a
2:31:58distrustful of people but he just trusts
2:32:00some people for certain things where he
2:32:02knows it's within their competence
2:32:05yeah so
2:32:07he has people he trusts to do things
2:32:09because you know he knows they'll do
2:32:10them and he knows that they'll do them
2:32:11well which is why you know he has his
2:32:14you know old buddies from you know Saint
2:32:16Petersburg because he's known for a very
2:32:17long time and he knows that they want
2:32:19you know try to pull a fast one over him
2:32:21but he also knows their strengths and
2:32:22their weaknesses and what they can be
2:32:24trusted to do I mean he's learning that
2:32:26you know some of the people in the
2:32:27military that he you know thought were
2:32:28competent or people on other things are
2:32:31not right that they're and eating tends
2:32:34to actually have a lot of loyalty to
2:32:35people as well or he also kind of thinks
2:32:37it's best to keep him inside the tent
2:32:38and outside and he moves them around you
2:32:41know he kind of okay you know he gives
2:32:43them multiple chances to redeem
2:32:45themselves if they don't it's not like
2:32:46he hasn't done in I mean yeah there is a
2:32:48lot of that in the system but the people
2:32:50that he's worked with for a long time
2:32:51you know he moves them around to
2:32:53something else perhaps where they can do
2:32:54less harm although you know we've often
2:32:56see that he he has quite a small Cadre
2:32:59of people that he's reliant on and but
2:33:01you know they're not up to the task
2:33:02which is kind of what's Happening Here
2:33:04but he also in the past has been more
2:33:08straightforward just like you were
2:33:09saying here more pragmatic
2:33:11and I think you know if you were engaged
2:33:13with him in Russian while you're
2:33:15actually literally speaking the same
2:33:17language because there's so much Lost in
2:33:19Translation I used to jump outside of my
2:33:21skin listening to some of the phone
2:33:22calls because you know the way that they
2:33:25kind of relayed you know with an
2:33:27interpreter oh because you listen to the
2:33:28translation no because I know I'm
2:33:30listening to the Russian and the
2:33:31translation in the translation you know
2:33:33in real time and I haven't been here to
2:33:35translators Institute it's pretty
2:33:36difficult look an interpret is a trend
2:33:39in the moment to do something you know
2:33:41the synchronic the the Synchro the the
2:33:44synchronized or the real-time
2:33:46translation
2:33:48it's a translation is an art as well as
2:33:51a skill
2:33:52if you're doing simultaneous translation
2:33:54that's the word in English you know
2:33:55synchronous in Russian you're you're
2:33:58kind of focused in the moment on the
2:34:00fragments of of the discussion trying to
2:34:02render it as accurately as you possibly
2:34:04can
2:34:05and when you come out of that you you
2:34:07can't relay the entire conversation
2:34:10and often you know what translators do
2:34:11is they you know they take this little
2:34:12shorthander like journalists do and
2:34:15afterwards you know they they've just
2:34:17been caught up in the moment and they
2:34:18haven't got the big picture
2:34:20consecutive translation is different you
2:34:22know kind of you're trying to convey the
2:34:24whole mood of like big chunks of
2:34:26dialogue that have already been there
2:34:28but you know sometimes you might not get
2:34:29that right either and it breaks up the
2:34:32flow of the discussion that's terrible
2:34:34and and often it's you know the kind of
2:34:36the person who translates it's different
2:34:38you know some of our best translated as
2:34:40a woman
2:34:41but you know hearing a woman's voice
2:34:43you know translating a guy who has a
2:34:45particular guy's way of speaking and a
2:34:48macho way of speaking and a crude way of
2:34:50speaking it'll be that Putin or I've
2:34:52seen that happen with uh erdogan the
2:34:54president of Turkey you know and it gets
2:34:56translated by a much more refined you
2:34:59know female speaker you've just lost the
2:35:01whole thing
2:35:02and you know many of the translators on
2:35:04the Russian side are not competent in
2:35:07English in the way that you would hope
2:35:08they are they're not it's not just that
2:35:10they're not native speakers they're just
2:35:11not trained to the same high standards
2:35:13they used to be in the past yes and you
2:35:15just go you lose the new ones you use
2:35:17the you use the feel you know you almost
2:35:19need you know kind of the interpretive
2:35:21actor you know doing you know the kind
2:35:24of the uh the interpretations like you
2:35:26need to match it as much as you can in
2:35:28the way that you you know do voiceovers
2:35:30and film the best way to talk to Putin
2:35:33is one-on-one
2:35:36in his own language I want to have a
2:35:38really great friend um here who is one
2:35:40of the best interpreters of Putin is
2:35:42often Us by the you know the media
2:35:45um to interpret phone which is just a he
2:35:47was at the Institute that I was I mean I
2:35:49know him from that kind of period and he
2:35:51is just excellent just like Pavel
2:35:53pashinka was absolutely phenomenal
2:35:55interpreting Gorbachev now he didn't
2:35:56always interpret him accurately because
2:35:58Gorbachev made lots of grammatical gaffs
2:36:01and sometimes was you know Gorbachev
2:36:03himself would joke that palashinko you
2:36:05know spoke better for Gorbachev than
2:36:06Gorbachev could himself but Putin is
2:36:08actually quite precise and careful in
2:36:10the word that he speaks because a lot of
2:36:12Menace sometimes the things deliberately
2:36:13other times there's lots of humor and
2:36:15he's telling a joke for a particular
2:36:17reason and a lot of it is I mean he
2:36:19actually uses the richness of the
2:36:20Russian language and the crudity of
2:36:22language that can't be conveyed official
2:36:24Expressions yeah facial expressions body
2:36:26language the word that he sits back in
2:36:28the chair and slouches the the kind of
2:36:30the way that he makes fun of people and
2:36:32he you know kind of uses irony just some
2:36:34of it's just lost and it needs to be
2:36:35conveyed it the depth of humor and wit
2:36:39I've met quite a few like political
2:36:42leaders like that in the speak only
2:36:43Russian when I was traveling Ukraine
2:36:46um
2:36:48I I don't know how you translate that I
2:36:50think it's almost uh the other person
2:36:52that reminds me like that a little bit
2:36:54is Obama
2:36:55there's Obama had a wit and an
2:36:58intelligence but like uh he would Smile
2:37:01as he said something that add a lot to
2:37:04it like uh like that he's trolling you
2:37:07or he's being sarcastic or like I don't
2:37:09it's me converting it to words it's
2:37:12obvious that all English speakers if
2:37:13they listen to Obama but if you had to
2:37:15translate to a different language I
2:37:17think you're going to lose a lot of that
2:37:18yeah I mean when I watched um the I mean
2:37:20I watched many of Putin's speech just
2:37:22you know just in Russian not looking at
2:37:24any of the you know the subtitles or
2:37:25anything and it's just watching the word
2:37:27that is body language is at the at the
2:37:29time when he's saying things the whether
2:37:30you smoke he'll sneer he'll laugh he'll
2:37:34he'll ad-lib you know kind of from
2:37:36something that obviously kind of you
2:37:37know wasn't there on the prepared uh
2:37:38Speech and it's really critical and you
2:37:41know kind of a lot some people speak you
2:37:43know like trump it just needs kind of
2:37:45just
2:37:47words
2:37:49Putin the words are very important
2:37:51Trumpets the atmosphere it's the the
2:37:54kind of the way you feel about things
2:37:55it's the buzz you get you know it's
2:37:56revving people up it's the kind of
2:37:58slogans and Putin is you know peace
2:38:01conveying a lot and what he's saying
2:38:03that I think I mean of course I don't
2:38:05know much because I only speak Russian
2:38:06and English but I have in English or
2:38:09Russian have not met
2:38:12almost anyone ever
2:38:14as interesting in conversation as Putin
2:38:17the I think he shines not in speeches
2:38:21but in interactions with others yeah
2:38:23when you watch those interviews and
2:38:24things with him and I've you know been
2:38:25at many of these sessions it's been
2:38:27hours of him parrying questions and it's
2:38:30like watching um a boxer sparring you
2:38:33know the kind of training bout
2:38:35yeah come on give me another one you
2:38:37know and it's kind of like and he Prides
2:38:38himself and and he's made mistakes
2:38:41often but the the breadth of you know
2:38:44the issues that he's often covered has
2:38:46been interested has been fascinating I
2:38:47used to just take you know kind of
2:38:50really detailed notes about this because
2:38:51you learn a term but it's not about his
2:38:53worldview again
2:38:55I mean he does live in a certain box
2:38:57like we all do
2:38:59and you know again his World experience
2:39:02is not as extensive as you know you
2:39:04would hope it would be but that's why
2:39:06you have to really pay attention that's
2:39:07where we've messed up
2:39:09that's where we haven't really paid a
2:39:11lot of attention to what he's been
2:39:13saying he's been telegraphing
2:39:15this
2:39:17grievances dissatisfaction this I'm
2:39:20gonna do something for years
2:39:23and the thing is during war time
2:39:28the combined with propaganda and the
2:39:31narratives
2:39:33of resentment and grievance that you dig
2:39:35in on those like
2:39:38maybe you start out not believing it but
2:39:40you're sure it's all gonna believe it
2:39:42eventually well you convince yourself
2:39:44over time yeah look the longer
2:39:47you're in a position like Putin 22 years
2:39:49now coming on 23 years could be out
2:39:52there for 36 years
2:39:54you become more and more rigid I mean
2:39:56this is again you know something that
2:39:58you see in history you know you look at
2:40:00you know people through history of move
2:40:02from kind of being kind of left-wing and
2:40:04you know in the perspective to hard
2:40:07right they kind of have a kind of a sort
2:40:10of an ossification or a rigidity emerges
2:40:12in their views I mean again I used to
2:40:13have these arguments with Professor
2:40:14price Bob Lennon because he would talk
2:40:16about lenasia but he didn't change his
2:40:18mind from being 18. have you not thought
2:40:20about that I mean it's like we're not
2:40:21formed fully formed in individuals at
2:40:24our team you know we don't know anything
2:40:26we know something but not everything I
2:40:28mean and obviously the younger context
2:40:30you know the kind of the way that you
2:40:31kind of grow up the players you grew up
2:40:32the things that happened you the traumas
2:40:33you have I mean all of these have an
2:40:35impact but then if you don't grow beyond
2:40:37all of that and Putin's been stuck in
2:40:39place since 2000 when it became
2:40:41president he's not out and about you
2:40:43know kind of being a man of the people
2:40:45and I you know he's not doing the kind
2:40:48of things he used to do yeah he gets out
2:40:50there and he goes to Kazakhstan and you
2:40:51know got him Tajikistan and he goes to
2:40:54China and he does this nothing and
2:40:56Jacoby he didn't go anywhere I mean very
2:40:57few places and so he got he's got stuck
2:41:01and I that worries me a lot because you
2:41:03could see before that he you know had a
2:41:05bit more of flexibility of thought
2:41:07and that's why nobody should be in
2:41:08players forever you should always kind
2:41:10of like get out there and go out there
2:41:12and learn a new skill you know kind of
2:41:14you need some he needs to sort of you
2:41:16know he needed to get out more and do
2:41:17something different you had an
2:41:18interesting point you've made that both
2:41:20Lionel Messi and uh Putin are thinking
2:41:24about
2:41:26they're just politicians they're
2:41:29thinking about the 2024 election which
2:41:31is coming up for both of them yeah I've
2:41:33said that in some of the other
2:41:33interviews yeah that's true that's so
2:41:35interesting yeah I mean because that
2:41:37election is going to be pretty much at
2:41:38the same time as the U.S election also
2:41:41oh those will be before I mean because
2:41:42sometime in that you know early part of
2:41:44the year for the presidential election
2:41:45yeah and also I don't know if you know
2:41:47about U.S elections but they actually
2:41:49last way longer we're in it now aren't
2:41:52we you know already yeah it's starting
2:41:53so there's going to be a significant
2:41:56overlap
2:41:57um yeah you know you think that actually
2:41:59comes into play in their calculus I
2:42:03think it was one of the reasons why
2:42:04Putin invaded in February of 2022
2:42:06because it was gonna be two years I mean
2:42:08thought it'd be over by March of 2022
2:42:09and you've got two years to prepare for
2:42:11you know the election and you've got a
2:42:13big boost you know not only you've got a
2:42:14boost from Crimea I mean I didn't
2:42:16mention that before I mean one of the
2:42:17reasons for inverting Crimea and alexing
2:42:19or invading Ukraine the first time Alex
2:42:21in Crimea it was look what happened to
2:42:23his ratings they went from kind of
2:42:25declining and it was still pretty good
2:42:27you know by anybody's standards too just
2:42:28rocketing off into the stratosphere I
2:42:30mean I didn't really meet anybody in
2:42:31Russia who thought that Alex in Crimea
2:42:33was you know kind of a bad thing
2:42:36I mean even you know kind of people who
2:42:37opposed putting on so many other things
2:42:39Crimea was you know Klim Nash they kept
2:42:41saying you know this is kind of you know
2:42:43we got it back you know it should never
2:42:45have gone away it was ours you know and
2:42:46but you know this is more complex and he
2:42:49wasn't I don't think at the time
2:42:51planning on annexing all of Ukraine uh
2:42:53when he went in this special military
2:42:54operation he was going to try to turn it
2:42:56into what Belarus has become a part of a
2:42:58you know bring back the Commonwealth of
2:43:00independent states or the union then a
2:43:02new Union with Belarus and Ukraine and
2:43:05Russia over time but certainly you know
2:43:07remove Ukraine as a major factor
2:43:10independent Factor on the world stage
2:43:12and you know consolidate Crimea and
2:43:15maybe you know kind of incorporate
2:43:17daniette's you know kind of that was
2:43:19that was also a possibility but it
2:43:20wasn't
2:43:21it wasn't in his intention and etiquette
2:43:23to have something on this kind of scale
2:43:25he wanted to get on with them preparing
2:43:27for what was going to be he would think
2:43:29the cake walk the shoe-in of the next
2:43:31presidential election I mean last time
2:43:33around he had to invite a bit of
2:43:34competition with this person who's
2:43:36reputed to be his goddaughter because
2:43:38Cindy subject you know to put a bit of
2:43:40you know a kind of entertainment for
2:43:41people
2:43:42you know the sex time around you know
2:43:45maybe he wasn't really planning on
2:43:46running you know against any other you
2:43:48know serious opposition he was just
2:43:50going to have the Acclaim of you know
2:43:51the kind of the great leader like
2:43:53President XI
2:43:55um in China you know Putin you know was
2:43:57basically I think you know he also hoped
2:43:59that he would be able to devolve some
2:44:01Authority away you know kind of so he's
2:44:03more like the you know the supreme
2:44:05leader kind of figure the Tsar like
2:44:07figure the Monarch and then you know
2:44:09other people get on with the chief
2:44:10executive prime minister or running the
2:44:13country and he could kind of like step
2:44:14back and just enjoy this you know maybe
2:44:16there was going to be again a new Union
2:44:17of Belarus Russia and
2:44:20um than Ukraine and some you know
2:44:23fashion and he'd preside over that
2:44:26speaking of our position you've
2:44:28criticized the famed Putin critic Alex
2:44:31in navalny
2:44:32what's the nature of your criticism well
2:44:34hasn't really been a kind of a criticism
2:44:36in the way that you know people have
2:44:38implied but more just reminding people
2:44:40that navalny isn't some stooge of the
2:44:42West as other people have you know kind
2:44:44of depicted him in the in the Russian
2:44:46firmament you know saying that this is
2:44:47kind of you know he's pro-western he's a
2:44:50Russian Nationalist and a Russian
2:44:52Patriot you know in the past uh he's
2:44:55articulated you know things are not sort
2:44:57of dissimilar from some of the people
2:44:59around Putin and it's more just
2:45:01reminding people that you know just
2:45:03because you kind of see somebody you
2:45:05know as a kind of in an opposition
2:45:06figure or somebody who might be more
2:45:08palatable from you know your perspective
2:45:10looking from the West
2:45:11they're not always going to be you know
2:45:13what you think they are and Alexander
2:45:15Valley is a Russian and you know in a
2:45:17particular Russian context he's
2:45:19different from Putin but he wouldn't
2:45:21necessarily you know kind of run you
2:45:24know the Russian system in words that we
2:45:25were like
2:45:27so that's it's kind of it's not a kind
2:45:29of a criticism it's more of a critique
2:45:30of the way that we look at things you
2:45:32know I think it's a mistake to always
2:45:33you know say oh this is pro-western or
2:45:35this is a you know liberal I mean what
2:45:37the heck does that mean pro-western I
2:45:39mean he's a Russian he's a Russian
2:45:40Nationalist and a Russian Patriot and
2:45:42he's often you know been you know quite
2:45:44critical about the immigration
2:45:47um he's had some negative views about
2:45:48you know one part remember said don't
2:45:50feed the caucuses you know kind of
2:45:52played upon some of the you know the
2:45:54racial and ethnic tensions inside of you
2:45:57know Russia itself as well now he is a
2:45:59pluralist and then he's kind of and he
2:46:01wants to have you know different uh
2:46:05set of political actors there but he
2:46:07also isn't promoting Revolution he's not
2:46:09Lenin he's not wanting to bring down the
2:46:10state
2:46:12he wants to kind of you know change
2:46:15the people who are in charge that's what
2:46:17he's being basically focused on and you
2:46:18know he might have
2:46:20and have things done do things that you
2:46:22know we elsewhere might not like and I
2:46:25guess the bigger picture there is
2:46:28it's not trivial to know that if you
2:46:31place another human in power
2:46:33to replace the current human and power
2:46:36that things are going to be better they
2:46:37could be a lot worse because
2:46:40there's a momentum to a system a system
2:46:43is bigger than just this leader even
2:46:45when that leader has a huge amount of
2:46:47power that's absolutely right and you
2:46:49know he grew up in that you know same
2:46:51system now he's younger than Putin so
2:46:53he's got a different generational
2:46:54perspective
2:46:55and he's not wedded to the Soviet Union
2:46:58uh or you know kind of some concept of
2:47:00the Russian Empire he doesn't seem to
2:47:01spend a lot of time I don't know what
2:47:03he's doing you know in jail but he's
2:47:04probably not sitting around you know
2:47:05reading romanosov and you know the kind
2:47:07of the great kind of tracks of Russian
2:47:09history could be actually but I mean I
2:47:11think you know navalny has a different
2:47:13worldview on a different perspective
2:47:14just like Medved if was different you
2:47:17know in his time in presidency in mid
2:47:19some you know changes and some
2:47:21Innovations there but don't think that
2:47:23they're going to be radically different
2:47:24because look Gorbachev I mean he was
2:47:27so different from andropov and chilienko
2:47:29now this is the person
2:47:31but he was also constrained by the
2:47:33system and he wanted to have change but
2:47:35he wanted evolutionary change he didn't
2:47:37know how to do it but he didn't want to
2:47:38bring the whole system down look a crush
2:47:39off when he came in you know after that
2:47:42whole period of
2:47:44you know about everybody trying to
2:47:46figure out what to do after Stalin had
2:47:48died and there was all this kind of back
2:47:49and forth and eventually Kristoff
2:47:50emerges and you know he tries to make
2:47:52changes to the system but he's also a
2:47:54creature of a very specific context he's
2:47:57grown up in the same system and it you
2:47:58know kind of brings all kinds of
2:48:00elements of chaos there into the whole
2:48:02thing and you know gets into a standoff
2:48:05of the United States
2:48:06that we know is the Cuban Missile Crisis
2:48:09and eventually you know gets removed you
2:48:11know we're looking at what's happening
2:48:12in the United Kingdom right now you know
2:48:15they've just churned through three
2:48:18uh Prime Ministers and actually five
2:48:20prime ministers in you know kind of as
2:48:22many years but all of those prime
2:48:23ministers have come out of the context
2:48:24of the conservative party in the whole
2:48:26you know kind of just shades of you know
2:48:28the same thing they've all come out of
2:48:30the same academic and you know kind of
2:48:32privileged backgrounds even uh Rishi
2:48:35sunak the new um prime minister is the
2:48:37first you know Indian or anglo-indian uh
2:48:41prime minister and British history it
2:48:43was a kind of phenomenal you know kind
2:48:45of as a child of in Indian immigrants
2:48:47but also um
2:48:48a person of great privilege from the
2:48:50same academic and party background as
2:48:52the others you know so there are always
2:48:55differences with those human beings but
2:48:56those contexts matter a lot what is the
2:48:59probability that Russia attacks Ukraine
2:49:01with the tactical nuclear weapon
2:49:05well Putin's definitely been thinking
2:49:07about it right I mean he's the kind of
2:49:08person if he's got an instrument he
2:49:10wants to figure out how to use it you
2:49:11know we look at polonium we look at
2:49:13novichok you know we look at all kinds
2:49:15of things you know that he's also
2:49:17presided over in Syria he has you know
2:49:20put in charge of the war in Ukraine now
2:49:21uh General civilikin is known as general
2:49:24Armageddon you know the kind of person
2:49:26who you know pretty much facilitated the
2:49:29use of chemical weapons in Syria you
2:49:31know for example so you know don't think
2:49:34that Putin you know hasn't thought about
2:49:35how ruthless he can possibly be the
2:49:37question is really the calculation it's
2:49:40his estimation of the probability that
2:49:42will get the desired effect
2:49:44we keep talking about this idea of
2:49:46escalate de-escalate that's not what the
2:49:48Russians you know how they call it but
2:49:50it's the whole idea that you do
2:49:51something really outrageous to get
2:49:53everybody else to back off yeah now when
2:49:55you talked about the precedent that the
2:49:57United States set of detonating uh the
2:50:00nuclear weapons in Hiroshima Nagasaki
2:50:03what you know he obviously meant the
2:50:06president of using nuclear weapons of
2:50:07course which of course we would then say
2:50:09well we should then how the Imp
2:50:12permissibility of ever doing that again
2:50:14but what he's talking about is the
2:50:16precedent of escalating to such an
2:50:18accident that you stopped the war
2:50:19because he reads that saying well you
2:50:21know the US dropped the bombs on
2:50:23Hiroshima Nagasaki the war was brought
2:50:25to a quick conclusion and of course
2:50:27there's a huge debate in America about
2:50:29whether it was necessary to do that
2:50:30whether the war was ending anywhere did
2:50:32that really you know kind of uh change
2:50:34the minds of the Japanese High command I
2:50:37mean did all kind of books uh and being
2:50:39written about that
2:50:40and of course you know the revulsion
2:50:42that people felt um in the wake of that
2:50:44was just you know just the shock of of
2:50:46what actually happened and we've spent
2:50:47you know 70 years you know basically
2:50:49Coming to Terms of the fact that we did
2:50:51something like that you know the fire
2:50:53bombing you know we've also looked at
2:50:54all the bombing you know in Vietnam and
2:50:57everywhere and you know the the all
2:50:59these massive bombing campaigns are
2:51:00realizing they actually often had the
2:51:02opposite effect Hiroshima Nagasaki might
2:51:04have uh contributed and there's a lot of
2:51:06you know scholarship suggesting it did
2:51:07to the end of the war but all of the big
2:51:09bombing campaigns the destruction
2:51:10actually prolonged was because they made
2:51:12people fight back as we're kind of
2:51:14seeing in the case of Ukraine so Putin
2:51:15has to calculate the probability that if
2:51:19he uses some tactical nuclear weapon
2:51:22that it will get the desired effect
2:51:23which is get us to capitulate and
2:51:25Ukraine to capitulate it us to
2:51:26capitulate meaning the United States and
2:51:28the Europeans not supporting Ukraine
2:51:30anymore pushing towards the negotiating
2:51:32table negotiating Ukraine away and
2:51:34Ukraine is saying okay we give up like
2:51:37um happened in Hiroshima Nagasaki in
2:51:40Japan ton so it's it's his calculation
2:51:43you know as much as anything else which
2:51:45is really important he said we have to
2:51:46show him that he won't get that out of
2:51:47it it's kind of less our probability and
2:51:50you know kind of the odds of it it's
2:51:51just how he calculates that probability
2:51:53oh they're getting what he wants I mean
2:51:56I guess that's how the game of poker
2:51:58works it's your your probability and
2:52:00your estimate of their probability and
2:52:03your estimate of their estimate of your
2:52:05probability and yeah so it goes on yeah
2:52:07uh I think he has two tools right so one
2:52:10is actually the actual use of nuclear
2:52:12weapons and then the threat of these oh
2:52:14the threat is very effective and the
2:52:17more real you make the threat that's
2:52:19right so if they get uh the more you
2:52:22approach the actual use I get very close
2:52:25to you there's already using Chernobyl
2:52:28is that aparisia and then usual cranes
2:52:31the other nuclear reactors so he's using
2:52:34civilian nuclear actors as a dirty bomb
2:52:36so you know it's ironic that he has Sega
2:52:39his defense minister calling people
2:52:41obviously the ukraines are going to use
2:52:42a dirty bomb they're already doing it I
2:52:44mean what what what is um you know kind
2:52:46of more destructive and stirring up all
2:52:48the radioactive dust and Chernobyl as
2:52:50you send your troops through you know
2:52:51for example or shelling you know the the
2:52:54Chernobyl plants and the sarcophagus and
2:52:56putting it at risk and that Parisian
2:52:58you've got the international atomic
2:52:59energy agency running out there in a
2:53:01panic and you know kind of also trying
2:53:04to intervene in the conflict so you're
2:53:06putting you know civilian nuclear uh
2:53:09reactors at risk I mean that also has a
2:53:10great added effect of cutting off
2:53:12Ukraine's power supply because
2:53:14zaparisian predicted it was the opposite
2:53:16a third of them Ukraine's power
2:53:19generation or some you know really high
2:53:20percentage job but I'd have to go back
2:53:22and you know take a look at that but
2:53:23that's a twofer you know it's a kind of
2:53:26a double effect there of undermining uh
2:53:30Power Generation also frightening
2:53:31Germans and others who've already been
2:53:33very worried about nuclear power and you
2:53:35know increasing your leverage on that
2:53:36energy front but also scaring people uh
2:53:39from the perspective of uh the use of
2:53:42nuclear weapon those reactors also
2:53:45become a nuclear weapon tactically
2:53:46deployed and as you said that the
2:53:49discussion of using a nuclear weapon and
2:53:51engendering all those fears and he's
2:53:53already got an effect everyone's running
2:53:56around talking about the Cuban Missile
2:53:57Crisis and secret diplomacy and how we
2:53:59negotiate away Ukraine in return for not
2:54:02blowing up a nuclear weapon so he's got
2:54:04a lot of people obviously talking about
2:54:05that so sorry for the difficult and uh
2:54:08direct question it could be for you
2:54:10directly or more like uh do you think we
2:54:14have a plan for this what happens if he
2:54:16does
2:54:17drop a nuclear
2:54:19weapon do you have a sense that the
2:54:22United States
2:54:23has a good plan
2:54:27I know we're talking about it I think we
2:54:29probably have several plans because it
2:54:31depends on what where when how
2:54:35but that don't and also don't these
2:54:37things happen very quickly
2:54:40well there's also signaling and sign and
2:54:42signs of um of movement there I mean I
2:54:45want to be very you know kind of careful
2:54:46about this but and the thing is it's
2:54:47also very important that we do this with
2:54:50other nuclear Powers so the other thing
2:54:52that's different
2:54:53from how it might have been in the past
2:54:55and particularly different from the
2:54:56Cuban Missile Crisis near a missile
2:54:58crisis we're not the only nuclear
2:54:59players
2:55:00China I mean has emerging nuclear
2:55:02Arsenal now
2:55:03um Less on the Strategic side but
2:55:05building it up uh but very much on the
2:55:07intermediate uh range and Tactical
2:55:10Kim Jong-un is firing off weapons left
2:55:12right and Center at the moment in North
2:55:14Korea we've got other Rogue States
2:55:15Putin's behaving like a rogue State just
2:55:17to be very clear and this is what we've
2:55:19got with Kim Jong-un in North Korea
2:55:20we've also got India and Pakistan and
2:55:24we've got other states that we're not
2:55:25supposed to talk about that we now have
2:55:26nuclear capacities and others that would
2:55:28like to have nuclear capacity and the
2:55:31whole questioner here is about ulcer
2:55:33proliferation getting back to that time
2:55:35when Ukraine had nuclear weapons at
2:55:38least there on its television sort of
2:55:40Belarus and Kazakhstan you've got to
2:55:42wonder was it wise for them to give it
2:55:43up we were worried about you know kind
2:55:45of loose nukes nuclear weapons you know
2:55:47kind of uh getting out of hand
2:55:49proliferation at the time we wanted
2:55:51fewer nuclear Powers Russia wanted that
2:55:54too now we're going to have more we've
2:55:56got more and what Putin is saying is
2:55:58well that was stupid if you turn to give
2:56:00up the nuclear weapons in fact my
2:56:02colleagues and I back in our report Back
2:56:04in the USSR kind of suggest they
2:56:05shouldn't give them up
2:56:06and that's why we had the um butter
2:56:08patch memorandum that's why the United
2:56:10States the United Kingdom in particular
2:56:12have you know basically some
2:56:15responsibility and obligation going back
2:56:16to 1994 when they promised Ukraine that
2:56:19gave up the nuclear weapons that
2:56:20territorial integrity and sovereignty
2:56:22would remain intact some obligation to
2:56:24actually do something to step up if we
2:56:26step back from that this is the thing
2:56:28that people are not talking about
2:56:30you know what about nuclear
2:56:31proliferation if you're South Korea or
2:56:33Japan you know you're any other country
2:56:35that's kind of worrying about your
2:56:36neighbors
2:56:37um and you know what might happen to you
2:56:39I mean just like India and Pakistan are
2:56:41both like well you know we've got to
2:56:42kind of keep our strategic nuclear
2:56:44balance here everything is up for
2:56:45questions Saudis don't want a nuclear
2:56:47weapon the Turks already want one
2:56:49they've talked about one for years you
2:56:51know why should the Iranians be the only
2:56:52one with an Islamic nuclear weapon you
2:56:55know and if if we know that you know
2:56:56Iran has
2:56:58break up capacity now the Saudis and all
2:57:01the other you know states that are in
2:57:04opposition to Iran well I also want to
2:57:05have some nuclear capacity in the United
2:57:07States before wanted to maintain
2:57:08everything under the nuclear umbrella
2:57:09you know one of the reasons why Sweden
2:57:11and Finland are joining NATO is because
2:57:12of suddenly all of these nuclear threats
2:57:15Sweden was actually the Lost country on
2:57:17the planet to want to have nuclear
2:57:18weapons they were actually pushing for a
2:57:19ban on nuclear weapons in the United
2:57:21Nations now that Putin's doing the
2:57:23nuclear cyber rattling
2:57:25you know they're talking about joining
2:57:27and on the verge of joining a nuclear
2:57:30Alliance you know see what what's
2:57:32happening here so we have to make it
2:57:35more and more difficult for Putin to
2:57:36even contemplate that that's why people
2:57:38are saying this is reckless this is
2:57:39irresponsible Putin is actually making
2:57:41the world less safe for himself down the
2:57:44line either but he's thinking short term
2:57:45here he's thinking what can I do what do
2:57:48I actually have you can also destroy
2:57:50lots of infrastructure as he's doing
2:57:52you can use subversion you know we're
2:57:53worried about all of the undersea cables
2:57:55all these weird things happening you
2:57:57know off orkney or in the Mediterranean
2:57:59or you know all these other things that
2:58:01are happening not dream to pipelines
2:58:03other infrastructure there's all kinds
2:58:05of other things that he can do as well
2:58:06here it's not just you know again
2:58:09there's a civilian nuclear threat
2:58:11of blowing up you know one of the
2:58:13reactors
2:58:14now it's got to be sure about where the
2:58:16wind turns and the wind blows
2:58:18and there's all kinds of things to you
2:58:20know factor in here but Putin is
2:58:22definitely sitting around
2:58:23calculating with other people what can I
2:58:26do to turn this around I mean he still
2:58:28thinks that he can win this
2:58:31or in other words he can oh he can end
2:58:33it in on his terms Crimea done yet
2:58:40and you know capitulation all recognized
2:58:44as being part of Russia
2:58:47oh he can freeze it and then you know
2:58:49kind of figure about where it goes from
2:58:51there what other pressure he can put on
2:58:53I mean I'm sure he's confident to get
2:58:54rid of zelenski and and he can Prevail
2:58:57over us I mean look I mean the UK is
2:58:58going through Prime Ministers you know
2:59:00faster than I'm changing my socks you
2:59:02know so it's like uh you know he can you
2:59:05know Prevail on the um you know
2:59:07basically he can
2:59:09it can have an impact on the political
2:59:11scene in Europe and elsewhere I mean
2:59:13again everyone's talking about winter
2:59:15coming and I know Putin's thinking yeah
2:59:17great I've you know destroyed the
2:59:19infrastructure of
2:59:21you're worried about the winter
2:59:23well yeah but I mean look the other
2:59:24thing is that is to start
2:59:30economy suggest
2:59:33we've got the home front to think about
2:59:34as well Putin has declared war on us
2:59:36they did that on September 30th he's
2:59:39done it at other points as well we've
2:59:40just not paid attention but it pretty
2:59:43much pretty explicit in September 30th I
2:59:45mean go back and watch that speech
2:59:47and you know he
2:59:49is gambling that you know people will go
2:59:51back you know to basically taking
2:59:54Russian gas and oil but it's not going
2:59:56to be that simple as well and do people
2:59:58and then you know the question has to be
3:00:00do we really kind of think he's going to
3:00:02play a fair after that well he's kind of
3:00:04also shown that he can leverage that
3:00:07it's such a complicated world it is
3:00:09complicated it's very complicated it's
3:00:11never I mean this it feels like things
3:00:13are heating up
3:00:14like
3:00:16and China
3:00:18is very quiet right now because they're
3:00:21watching what happens I mean for
3:00:23president she
3:00:25you know is trying to consolidate his
3:00:27power even further after the party
3:00:29Congress but he doesn't want to look
3:00:31like he made a mistake by bucking Putin
3:00:34I mean he thought Putin was also going
3:00:35to be you know
3:00:37Ukraine would probably be open for
3:00:40massive Chinese investment China was the
3:00:42largest investor in Ukraine
3:00:44before the wall
3:00:46largest single investor I mean the EU
3:00:48was bigger of course how do you hope the
3:00:50war ends in Ukraine
3:00:52well I mean I I do hope and you know
3:00:56with a ceasefire and negotiated solution
3:00:58but it has to be with Russia
3:01:00compromising on something and that's not
3:01:02where we are right now do you think both
3:01:04sides might be willing to compromise
3:01:07most wars always end in that way I mean
3:01:10nobody's ever happy but they don't seem
3:01:12to either side like legitimately doesn't
3:01:16want to compromise right now yeah
3:01:18because somebody look the thing is that
3:01:20um for Ukraine right now anything is a
3:01:23compromise at its expense right yeah
3:01:25fast devastation
3:01:27unbelievable casualty rates
3:01:30biggest Refugee crisis since World War
3:01:32II Russia's just said sorry this is our
3:01:35territories not just Crimea I think
3:01:36there could have been a negotiation over
3:01:38that
3:01:39but you know danette's coming we've got
3:01:41all kinds of formulas we've had all the
3:01:43way through history of you know putting
3:01:45things under a kind of guardianship
3:01:47receivership of territory the United
3:01:49Nations all kinds of different ways of
3:01:50formulating that we could have easily
3:01:52been creative but Russia's basically
3:01:54saying sorry we've taken this and any
3:01:56other negotiations just you recognizing
3:01:58this for us not doing more destruction I
3:02:01mean that is not the basis for
3:02:02negotiation
3:02:04and you know having you know kind of
3:02:06people come and just sort of laying
3:02:07those terms down is not a starting
3:02:08position
3:02:10I think Russia
3:02:12is also you know in a in a dilemma of
3:02:15its own making now because Putin has
3:02:17made it very difficult you know to
3:02:18compromise just by everything that he
3:02:20said
3:02:21now for Ukraine they've already won
3:02:24a great moral political and Military
3:02:26victory
3:02:27it's just hard to see it right at the
3:02:29particular moment they've done what the
3:02:32Finns did in the winter War which the
3:02:34Finns were devastated by the winter War
3:02:35as well but they pushed them back
3:02:37now the fins lost a lot of territory
3:02:39there's corellia and you know huge
3:02:41spares of territory but
3:02:43they got to be Finland
3:02:44and I know now they're you know joining
3:02:47NATO but they've been part of the EU the
3:02:49question is how to
3:02:51you know get Ukraine to be
3:02:53Ukraine in a success
3:02:55but you know is and that's the challenge
3:02:58now again they've already won
3:03:00psychologically politically militarily
3:03:02because Putin doesn't
3:03:04succeeded in what he wanted to do but he
3:03:06has succeeded in completely and utterly
3:03:08devastating them and this is the kind of
3:03:10the old muscovite
3:03:12the old Russian imperial old server
3:03:14mentality you know going all the way
3:03:15back to when the muscovites were the bag
3:03:18men for the you know the horde the for
3:03:20the Mongols it was destruction you know
3:03:23you don't play with us we'll destroy you
3:03:25you know people talk about it as Mafia
3:03:27but it's older you know all you have to
3:03:29go does you go and see tarkovsky's Andre
3:03:31Rubio I mean I remember you know seeing
3:03:33that film when I was first as a student
3:03:35in Moscow and just being whoa this is so
3:03:37brutal
3:03:39I mean this is just unremittingly brutal
3:03:42because the whole point is
3:03:44that you show people who's the Boss
3:03:47the destruction is the point of things
3:03:49as well
3:03:50because
3:03:52you know you are emphasizing your
3:03:55domination
3:03:57and that's what Putin is doing right now
3:03:58is saying okay you want to go in a
3:04:01different direction so be it but I'm
3:04:03Gonna Make You Suffer remember when
3:04:05hodokowsky got out of
3:04:08um the penal colony when Putin let him
3:04:10out eventually he said he suffered
3:04:12enough
3:04:14but he suffered for 10 11 years
3:04:17I don't think Putin feels that Ukraine
3:04:20has suffered enough at this point or we
3:04:21have suffered so there's a part of this
3:04:24Invasion there's punishment for
3:04:26something yeah it's medieval
3:04:28I mean look we're all capable of the
3:04:30same things right there was a lot of
3:04:32Destruction and that's what Assad was
3:04:34like in Syria like his father
3:04:36you destroy because you teach him a
3:04:38lesson
3:04:39and look Britain did that in the
3:04:40colonial era I mean all the history of
3:04:42British colonialism is exactly the same
3:04:45you know up until recent times brutality
3:04:50teaching people you know if teaching
3:04:52them a lesson you have to suffer the US
3:04:55did it I mean we did it with the Native
3:04:56Americans you know we did it all over
3:04:57the place you know as well this is kind
3:05:00of what big you know states do
3:05:02at different points in history just that
3:05:04you know Russia's not moved on from that
3:05:07I mean we've learned some lessons late I
3:05:09hope you know we're fully internalized
3:05:10them of you know things that we've done
3:05:12you know kind of past the United States
3:05:14ideally are trying to do better and most
3:05:16of Europe's trying to do better as well
3:05:17think about France in Algeria you know
3:05:19again you know we can see this in many
3:05:21different settings
3:05:23but I think you know for Putin right now
3:05:25he hasn't taught all of us sufficient a
3:05:27lesson
3:05:29I just I talked to hundreds of people in
3:05:31Ukraine and um
3:05:34the tough thing
3:05:36they're inspiring things that there's a
3:05:38Unity the tough thing is
3:05:40a lot of them speak intensely of hate
3:05:43towards not just Russia but Russians
3:05:46Russians that's how Europeans felt about
3:05:48Germany and Germans at the end of World
3:05:50War II
3:05:52and uh generational hate like well I
3:05:56don't think that hate is gonna pass well
3:05:59it might it might well take a generation
3:06:01I mean I won when I was a kid in the 70s
3:06:04I went on exchanges to Germany
3:06:06and that was like you know 30 years more
3:06:09than 30 years after the end of the war
3:06:11my grandfather had fought in World War
3:06:12One or wouldn't speak to my parents when
3:06:15they sent me on a
3:06:17um then we hadn't thought World War II
3:06:18we fought World War one he hated the
3:06:19Germans
3:06:21and he and he did not want me going you
3:06:23know to Germany as an ex-gen student he
3:06:24refused to meet you know kind of the
3:06:26German kid who you know came to stay at
3:06:29my house you know for example I mean it
3:06:31takes a long time to and it takes a long
3:06:33time to get over that but but you do I
3:06:36mean and we have we have in Europe and
3:06:38that was the whole point
3:06:40of you know all that kind of exercise of
3:06:43European Unity after World War II now
3:06:45the big challenge is
3:06:47what do we do with Russia because a lot
3:06:48of people are talking now we can't have
3:06:49European security without Russia that
3:06:51people are saying we can't have a Europe
3:06:53you know kind of with Russia
3:06:55you know so how do we deal with this we
3:06:58we've got to basically kind of it's
3:07:00gonna be like Japan and Germany after
3:07:02World War II after this just the level
3:07:04of the atrocities that have been carried
3:07:07out as you said the level of hatred
3:07:10but we found a way of doing it
3:07:13now it a lot of it will require change
3:07:16on the part of Russia as well and
3:07:17Russians and really thinking about this
3:07:19I mean Gorbachev before tried to do in
3:07:22the late 1980s with the black spots in
3:07:25with glass slots with openness and
3:07:28talking about Russian history just kind
3:07:30of never sort of withered on the vine as
3:07:32time went on
3:07:35what gives you hope about the future
3:07:38well my hope comes into the fact that
3:07:39we've done things before that we've got
3:07:41ourselves out of tough times and we've
3:07:43overcome stuff and in people because I
3:07:45meet amazing people you just talked
3:07:47about hundreds of people that you've met
3:07:49with in Ukraine
3:07:50and you know people all think
3:07:52differently contexts and circumstances
3:07:54change and people can evolve some people
3:07:56get stuck Putin's got stuck but people
3:07:59can evolve
3:08:00and you know I do think that if we all
3:08:03pull together and we've seen this in so
3:08:06many contexts we can find solutions to
3:08:07things just like we get back again to
3:08:09our discussion about scientists and just
3:08:11the kind of amazing breakthroughs of
3:08:14you know what we did on covid or done on
3:08:17you know kind of other you know diseases
3:08:18and things and look there there is some
3:08:21similarities there's a pathology around
3:08:23war and conflict
3:08:24years ago in the 1990s I worked on you
3:08:28know a lot of the projects that were
3:08:30funded by the Carnegie Corporation of
3:08:32the United States under the then
3:08:34presidency of David Hamburg who was a
3:08:36scientist and actually did see a lot of
3:08:38parallels between the sort of like the
3:08:39pathology of disease and you know kind
3:08:42of the the
3:08:43pestilence you know of conflict kind of
3:08:45idea and of course these you know
3:08:47parallels had to be very careful because
3:08:49you know they're not neat but there was
3:08:51kind of like an idea in there and how do
3:08:52you sort of treat this how do you deal
3:08:54with this
3:08:55and we did come up with all kinds of of
3:08:57ideas and you know things that are still
3:08:59out there we've created institutions
3:09:01that have helped to keep the peace we
3:09:03just have neglected them allowed them to
3:09:06degrade just like the United Nations and
3:09:08you know we've created problems inside
3:09:11of them like the veto power of the
3:09:14permanent powers on the
3:09:16U.N security Council but we can change
3:09:18that he's just gonna have a will and I
3:09:21do think out there there are sufficient
3:09:22people with a will and we've just got to
3:09:24get people mobilized I mean I'm always
3:09:26amazed by how people can mobilize
3:09:27themselves around a crisis remember
3:09:29Winston Churchill I don't quite all the
3:09:31time because I can never remember half
3:09:32his quotes but I do remember the one
3:09:34about never let a good crisis go to
3:09:36waste and I always think that that you
3:09:38know yeah that we should we shouldn't
3:09:41let this crisis go to waste and
3:09:44something else can come out of this just
3:09:45like in Ukraine like we've worried
3:09:46before about corruption in Ukraine the
3:09:49influence of the oligarchs we've got to
3:09:51run oligarchs here in the US we need to
3:09:52you know deal with as well but this is a
3:09:54chance to do it differently
3:09:56yeah it really is a chance to do things
3:09:58differently and a part of that is young
3:10:00people I have to ask you and as young
3:10:02people I mean I'm feeling a bit on the
3:10:03older side now but I still feel I've got
3:10:05you know a bit of you know kind of Youth
3:10:06within me at 57 I'm not battled but I'm
3:10:09not that young but we have to work
3:10:11together with younger and older people
3:10:12come together in coalitions of you know
3:10:15across Generations you remind me of of
3:10:17uh kids who just graduated college and
3:10:20say and I I'm I feel old
3:10:23so yeah no I don't actually feel old but
3:10:26it is a number Edge and you know when
3:10:28you know you kind of think about when I
3:10:29was I thought you don't like math yeah
3:10:31like things like that yeah but I find it
3:10:33interesting but you know when I was I
3:10:34remember when I was a little kid I kept
3:10:36thinking about the year 2000 and I
3:10:37thought oh my God I'll be dead I'll be
3:10:3935.
3:10:40that's 22 years ago
3:10:43you've overcome a lot of struggle in
3:10:46your life
3:10:47uh based on different reasons as you
3:10:49write about uh
3:10:51class being one of them
3:10:54your funny sounding accent being another
3:10:57or just a representation of class
3:11:00um but in general
3:11:01through all of that to be at the White
3:11:04House
3:11:06to be one of the most powerful voices
3:11:09in the world what advice would you give
3:11:12from grounded in your life story to
3:11:15somebody who's young somebody who's in
3:11:16high school in college thinking of how
3:11:19they can have a big positive impact on
3:11:21the world well we all have a voice
3:11:23right we all have agency we all actually
3:11:26have the ability to do something and you
3:11:28can you know start small in your local
3:11:30community or you know even in your own
3:11:32classroom just helping you know somebody
3:11:33else out or speaking up and advocating
3:11:35on behalf of things
3:11:37you know when I was a I was like about
3:11:3911 years old I got involved with the
3:11:41kids on Save the whales you know we had
3:11:43all this you know kind of we were hardly
3:11:45Greta sunberg but we you know we kind of
3:11:46got together in a kind of network
3:11:48writing to people and you know trying to
3:11:50raise money to you know help save the
3:11:52world now actually the whales of the
3:11:54world are doing somewhat better I can't
3:11:56say that that was because of me and my
3:11:57network but you know it was kind of a
3:11:59way of organizing and you know kind of
3:12:02joining in at a larger movement
3:12:04everybody can be part of something
3:12:05bigger the the thing is is it's all
3:12:08about working together with others and
3:12:09giving other people a chance as well I
3:12:11think you know one thing is that our
3:12:13voices
3:12:15have more impact when they're Amplified
3:12:17they don't have to be the voices of
3:12:18Discord or the voices of hate
3:12:21you know you've been you know trying to
3:12:23do this with your podcast you know kind
3:12:24of give people a voice give them a kind
3:12:26of platform and you know get them to
3:12:29join in with other people
3:12:30and you know one of the things I've been
3:12:32trying to do is you know kind of go and
3:12:34talk to just as many people as I
3:12:36possibly can and say look you know we
3:12:37can all do something here
3:12:39we can all you know lend our voices to a
3:12:41cause that we care deeply about we can
3:12:43be kind to each other we can give other
3:12:45people a chance we can kind of speak out
3:12:47while we see that you know something is
3:12:48wrong and we can try to you know explain
3:12:50things to people and and what I'm trying
3:12:53to do at the moment is just sort of
3:12:54explain you know what I've learned about
3:12:56things and you know hope that that helps
3:12:58people make informed judgments of their
3:13:00own and that you know kind of maybe take
3:13:02things further and learn something more
3:13:03it's like kind of like building up on
3:13:05you know the knowledge
3:13:07you know that that I have you know to
3:13:09try to Impossible and everybody can do
3:13:11that different ways you can kind of like
3:13:12reach back you know if you're 14 help
3:13:14somebody who's seven if you're 21 help
3:13:16somebody who's 14. you know kind of if
3:13:18in you know the kind of uh my age now
3:13:20I'm always trying to you know reach back
3:13:22and
3:13:23you know work with uh younger people
3:13:25listen to younger people help them out
3:13:27make connections uh for them listen to
3:13:29what they have to say about something
3:13:31try to incorporate that and you know
3:13:32things that I'm saying as well the main
3:13:34point is that we've all got a voice
3:13:35we've all got agency and it always works
3:13:38better when we work together with other
3:13:39people but sometimes you can feel pretty
3:13:42hopeless you can feel
3:13:44I mean there's low points you seem to
3:13:46have a kind of uh Restless energy a
3:13:51drive to you or there are low points in
3:13:54in the beginning when
3:13:56um
3:13:58in your early days when you're trying to
3:14:00get the education where it may have not
3:14:03been cleared to you that you could be at
3:14:05all successful yeah they're always
3:14:07they're always but I mean there were
3:14:08lots of points where I was just
3:14:09despondent but then you know I'd meet
3:14:12somebody who would just suddenly turn
3:14:15things around I was this a lot called
3:14:16was I out there looking for it you know
3:14:18sometimes you know you just if you're
3:14:20open and receptive to you know kind of
3:14:22uh hearing something from someone else I
3:14:24mean I you know often times when I felt
3:14:26so despondent you know in such a black
3:14:28mood I didn't think I'd be able to go on
3:14:29and then I'd have a chance conversation
3:14:31with somebody I mean I want to remember
3:14:33you know I was sitting on a bench it was
3:14:34probably 11 or 12 just crying my eyes
3:14:36out just really upset and an old lady
3:14:38just came and sat next to me put a arm
3:14:40around me said oh it's all right pet
3:14:42what's the matter you know it can't be
3:14:43that bad can it and it was just this
3:14:45human embrace it's like somebody
3:14:48you know just basically reaching out to
3:14:51me that snapped me out of it and I
3:14:53thought you know here's somebody just
3:14:54you know she didn't know who I was she
3:14:55just felt really bad that I was you know
3:14:57sitting you know crying and I mean I
3:14:59can't even remember what it was about
3:15:00anymore you know now it just seems
3:15:02inconsequential at the time I probably
3:15:04thought my life was at an end just you
3:15:06know sometimes people making eye contact
3:15:07with him in the street and saying
3:15:09something to you can kind of pull you
3:15:11out of something
3:15:12and you know it's kind of a I think you
3:15:15just have to open yourself up to the
3:15:17prospect that not everyone's bad just
3:15:18like you're saying before that there's
3:15:20you know good in everybody even during
3:15:22you know that really difficult period of
3:15:24impeachment you know I was trying to
3:15:26listen very carefully to people and I
3:15:28thought we always we still have
3:15:30something in common here we need to
3:15:32remember that
3:15:33you know kind of when people are kind of
3:15:35forgetting who they are or you know the
3:15:37context and they're operating there's
3:15:40always something that can you know can
3:15:42pull you back again there's always that
3:15:43kind of thread so I'm sure you were
3:15:45probably attacked
3:15:47by a lot of people
3:15:50and you're still able to keep that
3:15:52optimism that well I kept it into kind
3:15:55of perspective like when I was a kid I
3:15:56mean things were mentioned before I got
3:15:57bullied you know kind of again and I try
3:16:00to understand why they're doing this
3:16:02one of the most amazing things
3:16:05that happened you know really on was my
3:16:06my dad was a pretty incredible person
3:16:08and he would always open my eyes to
3:16:10something I was getting bullied really
3:16:11nastly by a girl at school and my dad
3:16:14started asking me questions about her
3:16:16and one day my dad's been gonna go for a
3:16:19walk
3:16:20and my Town's very small remember it's
3:16:22very depressed really you know deprived
3:16:24area and we go to this housing estate
3:16:27public housing place that's not too far
3:16:28away from where I live and it's really
3:16:30you know kind of one of the most
3:16:31run-down places and already run down
3:16:33players my dad like knocks on the door
3:16:35and I said what are we doing Dad and I
3:16:37said he said we're going off to you know
3:16:38we're going to visit somebody an old
3:16:40family friend uh I think even though you
3:16:43know a distant relative a knock on the
3:16:44door this old man answers the door and
3:16:46he's oh Alfie my dad's name is alfalfi
3:16:48you know kind of oh fancy seeing you we
3:16:50haven't seen you come on in have a cup
3:16:52of tea what are you doing today I'm just
3:16:53walking past my daughter we're going for
3:16:55a trip then we're going for it we're
3:16:56going for a walk and then suddenly I see
3:16:58that girl and she's in the kitchen and
3:17:01I'm thinking oh my God bloody hell you
3:17:04know British expression what's this and
3:17:06it turns out that Dad had figured out
3:17:07who she was
3:17:09and he knew her grandfather and she was
3:17:11living with her grandfather and she'd
3:17:12been abandoned by her parents and she
3:17:14was living in you know pretty dire
3:17:16circumstances and she'd been getting
3:17:17raised by a grandfather and she was just
3:17:19miserable
3:17:20and the reason she was bullying me was
3:17:22to make herself feel better yeah and
3:17:24after that she never bullied me again I
3:17:25mean we didn't even talk
3:17:27because there was a connection murdered
3:17:29and suddenly she realized that her
3:17:31grandfather who was the only person she
3:17:32had
3:17:33knew my dad and there was some they were
3:17:35friends or they were even family some
3:17:37you know kind of relationship that I
3:17:39mean I I was related to half of north of
3:17:41England I had no idea how we were
3:17:42related you know everybody was some
3:17:44relative because people have lived there
3:17:45for Generations together this very small
3:17:46area and that turned things around so
3:17:49just remember you might have and that's
3:17:51kind of suddenly talked to me there's
3:17:52always a reason why somebody's doing
3:17:54something a lot of the times they're
3:17:55really unhappy with themselves sometimes
3:17:57there's someone else going on their
3:17:58lives sometimes they just don't know
3:17:59Benny better and I shouldn't take it
3:18:02personally because I don't have a
3:18:03personal connection with half these
3:18:05people who are up there saying that they
3:18:06want this not to happen to me
3:18:08well thank you for the kindness and
3:18:10empathy you still carrying your heart I
3:18:12can see it through all the you must have
3:18:13gone through in the in the recent couple
3:18:15of years it's really inspiring to see
3:18:17that and thank you for everything you've
3:18:20done for the work you've written and for
3:18:22the work you continue to write and to do
3:18:24it this seems like a really really
3:18:27difficult time for human civilization on
3:18:29a topic that you're a world expert in so
3:18:32um don't mess it up no I know about that
3:18:34do everybody have that let's just let's
3:18:36just keep it together right yeah
3:18:38exactly let's keep it together your
3:18:40words have a lot of power right now so
3:18:42it's a it's a really really tricky time
3:18:44so thank you so much given how valuable
3:18:47your time is to sit down with me today
3:18:49it was on honor it's a privilege and a
3:18:52pleasure to talk to you as well no thank
3:18:53you
3:18:54thanks for listening to this
3:18:55conversation with Fiona Hill to support
3:18:57this podcast please check out our
3:18:59sponsors in the description and now let
3:19:02me leave you some words from John
3:19:03Steinbeck
3:19:04power does not corrupt fear corrupts
3:19:08perhaps the fear of the loss of power
3:19:12thank you for listening I hope to see
3:19:14you next time

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This page contains the full transcript of Fiona Hill: Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump | Lex Fridman Podcast #335 by Lex Fridman, generated from the public captions YouTube serves with the video. The transcript has 39,977 words across 5,834 segments, with the original timestamps preserved so you can click any line to jump to that moment in the embedded player.

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